Five Mental Models to See the Future

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Welcome to the Fast Forward podcast, powered
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by Future World. We live in an incredibly challenging,
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interesting, and for many, somewhat scary times.
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The world is changing at a speed that is unprecedented.
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One of our guests on the podcast, who I'll introduce
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just now, refers to it often as mind -boggling
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in almost every single dimension. Corporations,
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CEOs, leaders, ordinary human beings are finding
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it incredibly challenging to think about how
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we cope with these changes that are happening
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in the world. This podcast will seek to introduce
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to you new metaphors, help you understand the
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complexity, and frame five very different and
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challenging mental models to help you navigate
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through these uncertain and yet exciting waters
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filled with opportunities I believe we have not
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seen in our lifetime almost. However, the truth
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is that leaders need to think completely differently.
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Develop entirely new mental models to understand
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the nuances of these new changes that are taking
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place in our world. In fact, one of the fundamentals
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will be for leaders to stop looking at trends,
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which of course exist today. What really becomes
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incredibly critical in this new environment is
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for leaders to become attuned to the signals
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which the future is sending us. Signals that
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tell us a story. Signals that are loud and strong
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and obvious. Connecting and combining with signals
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that are maybe weak and tiny and seemingly insignificant.
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These combinations are creating brand new markets,
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establishing and demanding, in fact, brand new
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business models. And the question is, how do
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companies relate to these and how do we go forward?
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I am Anton Musgrave, a founder of Future World
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International. My background started really as
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a commercial lawyer in private practice. And
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it was in 1989 that... A signal happened across
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my desk that suggested the world of communication
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would profoundly and fundamentally change. That
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small signal way back in the late 1980s was none
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other than what we know today as the internet.
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Of course, it wasn't called that in those days.
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But the signal suggested that how we communicate,
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how we share information, how we collaborate
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across all industries would fundamentally shift.
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That triggered a curiosity in my mind that said,
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What else is out there shaping the future that
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I'm blissfully unaware of as I bill my hours
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and count my minutes and extract money from my
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clients, not always from adding value, but simply
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from selling minutes? And that was the realization
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that started my journey into looking towards
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the future, learning from the future rather than
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observing the past to try and establish how one
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can stay relevant and deliver value to the marketplace
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and to clients in that world. In that journey
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into the future, I had the fortune of meeting
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the two gentlemen who I will now introduce. With
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me in the studio is Louis Heering. Louis was
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an auditor. He was the managing partner of Deloitte
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Consulting for many, many years, responsible
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for their global innovation initiatives way back
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in order to make sure that professional services
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stayed ahead of the game and stayed relevant.
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From then, Louis moved into the world of private
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equity, exciting, challenging. And again, triggering
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him a passion to seek future relevant value and
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to understand deeply from a financial, from a
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commercial, and from a leadership perspective,
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how businesses can succeed in the future. Our
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second guest is a renowned award -winning futurist
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from Switzerland, Gerd Lenehard. He's known for
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all his work on the good future, how to understand
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the shifts in the world profoundly, and how to
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make choices. in our daily lives and in our businesses
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that will assure a better future, not only for
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the planet, but most importantly, perhaps also
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for humanity. And what we want to do today is
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really talk about these new mental models that
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we can use with CEOs and say, how do we understand
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this complexity, this uncertainty, if you like?
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The first of those that we'll introduce is called,
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interestingly, the Cassandra Complex. Now, Louis,
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perhaps you'd like to give us a short summary
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of what this theme called the Cassandra Complex
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might mean. So in Greek mythology, Cassandra
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was cursed to see the future but never be believed.
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And I think executives today face the inverse
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curse. They're drowning in predictions about
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disruption, but they can't distinguish prophecy
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from noise. And I think ultimately... if one
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were to think through this particular point,
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it really comes down for me, do you have the
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conviction to act on what you see even when the
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world calls you crazy? And I think there are
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many, many examples that have distinguished incredibly
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successful companies over the years that have
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been able to do that, not just once or two times
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or three times, but as a continuous. Evolution,
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yes. And I think we must also sketch this in
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the background of the mortality rate of companies
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increasing at an unprecedented rate. I mean,
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the forecast is if you're on an S &P 500 company,
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that by 2027, it'll be down to 12 years average
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lifespan on an index like the S &P 500. So these
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are top global companies with very competent
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senior leadership. will experience successful,
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obviously, to get into the index in the first
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place, and yet just unable to stay relevant.
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Correct. Now, imagine the most successful companies
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on the planet. These are not companies that are
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poor in talent, capital, or any of those factors
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that typically drive successful organizations.
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They are endowed with all of those. Amazing.
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But yet they get displaced. It's the yin and
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the yang concept. On the one end, you can be
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disrupted. Yes. The other side of the coin is,
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why wouldn't you disrupt others? And I think
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the point is, if you are able, as part of a business
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process, able to disrupt others on a continuous
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basis, you will not disappear off these indices.
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Yeah, yeah. And I think just one great example
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for me at the moment is, for example, what MicroStrategy
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has done. I mean, becoming a Bitcoin treasury
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business. You know, long before anybody else
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actually believed it, they embarked on this journey,
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which has resulted in extraordinary value and
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market capitalization increase way beyond their
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Bitcoin treasury holdings. And, of course, globally
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dominant at a speed that makes it very difficult
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for others to catch up. Correct. And they've
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been able to combine their core business of software
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also with that little signal of decentralized
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finance and cryptocurrency. Fascinating. Gerd,
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I'm curious to hear from your perspective. And
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as I've said, you often reflect on the world
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we're living in and use the word mind -boggling,
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which I've stolen with impunity, I have to tell
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you, because I think it captures the essence
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of the craziness that we're going through in
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the world right now. So in your experience, Gerd,
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just share with us a few thoughts on how you
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think leaders need to respond and react and think
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in, as you say, the mind -boggling future. So
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there's really two things. One is Barbara Marks
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Hubbard, you know, famous futurist. She said
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the future exists first in imagination, then
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in will, and then in reality. So the future does
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not exist in intellectual effort. initially,
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intellectual effort is now a commodity. I mean,
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we're now at a point to where first computing
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became a commodity. So computing is very cheap
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now. And if you do a lot of it, it's very expensive,
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but it has gotten substantially cheaper. And
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now intelligence is becoming a commodity. I mean,
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let's be frank, you know, you can go to ChatGPT
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or Gemini, you can ask about the future of Switzerland,
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where I live, and we'll give you a nice little
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talk, even make up a voice in the podcast. And
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so what is the difference to us? The difference
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is we don't just need intelligence. We also need
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understanding, intuition, imagination, you know,
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the human things, emotions. And how can you tell
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a good story without emotions? You could fake
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it, of course, right? So I think this is the
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important part is to realize first we have imagination,
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then we want something, we have a vision, and
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then we create the reality. And in Europe, you
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know, I'm from Germany originally. we have this
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problem that we always are looking for the reality
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to actually move on it. So when it's real, then
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we say, okay, it's proven. And that's not how
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it works today. We can't prove the future by
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taking a deeper look at the facts. There's no
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such thing. Now it's really about vision, storytelling,
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understanding, intuition, imagination, as it
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always has been. But now it's even better or
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worse, you could say, because AI does the facts.
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It's very interesting, Gerd, that for leaders
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to be successful, they almost need to embrace
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the unthinkable. I think it was Arthur C. Clarke
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in 1965 who said, unless your view of the future
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is thoroughly unbelievable, you will have no
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chance of success, which is really scary for
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CEOs when they're facing a panel of analysts
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and investors and shareholders. But nonetheless,
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I think the lesson from the Cassandra Complex
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is that in this exciting new and very different
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world, a new concept has become incredibly important
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for leaders. And that is the ability to tell
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a story about the ambition. Let's call it the
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dream, a word not often spoken about in MBA lectures.
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What is the dream of the organization and what
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will that dream mean for everybody in the entire
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world and ecosystem? And be able to tell that
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story with such conviction, passion, insight,
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and aspiration that, in fact, it leaves the audience
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with goosebumps. Goosebumps of excitement, trepidation
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perhaps to some extent, but nonetheless a commitment
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to do whatever it takes to go and achieve the
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impossible, the unthinkable, the insightful from
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the dream perspective. And just trust that the
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process that will evolve, which we'll talk about
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a bit later on in the podcast. in fact, will
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validate the ambition subsequently. But incredibly
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important to start with that goosebump moment
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of say, wow, imagine if we could do A, B, C,
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or D. Let's move on to our second mental model
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that is critically important for organizations
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to succeed in the tumultuous future that awaits
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all of us. And we call this the boiling frog
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paradox. Now, coming from a part of the world
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that I do, We're quite used to this. We sublimely
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and perhaps unwittingly move forward each day,
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just believing that the future will be good,
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ignoring perhaps some of the signs around us
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that they're deep and challenging issues to be
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resolved. And so we expect the world to continue
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at the slow speed of yesterday, ignoring the
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fact that speed is escalating almost exponentially.
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around us and how do we prepare ourselves for
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that that moment of truth when we realized that
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we were ignoring the obvious well i mean i think
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it's really a character skill you know it's the
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uh the ability to observe and i've noticed with
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many of my clients is that they if they are successful
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they stop observing right because they start
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repeating because it has always worked and some
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of the german car companies are great examples
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for this right And the future is not a repetition
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of the present. It's not an extension of today.
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It is completely different. Sometimes you're
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lucky and it becomes an extension. But generally
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speaking, it's different. I was in the music
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business. We sold records. And today we sell,
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I don't know, air or whatever. The click on the
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phone, right? And it's just not the same. So
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if you are a good observer, you will notice things.
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And you will say, that's interesting. That's
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against my assumption. So two things I always
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tell people. First, Let's get better at observing
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what's happening around us and spend, as Bill
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Gates says, one hour per day in the future. And
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I'm not talking about Netflix here. I'm talking
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about reading good stuff. And then the second
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is we have to question our assumptions. We're
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just assuming too many things. For example, we
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had the assumption for a long time that basically
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electric vehicles won't work because you'll never
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get more than 50 miles to take one. And now we're
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at 500, right? So the assumptions are really
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what kind of... creates a problem because we
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have this fixed things that we say okay that's
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it the world is like this but turns out if we're
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observing we can have our assumption disrupted
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which is good yeah yeah and it happens really
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really quickly louis from your perspective you
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know as a as a private equity uh specialist shall
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we say um you must have observed many industries
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uh and and companies that have just kind of missed
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things because they embedded really in operating
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today and not looking for some of these shifts
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that are taking place around them. And so they
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wake up one morning and someone sort of changed
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the game on their watch. Yeah, I must say it
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doesn't happen overnight though. I mean, the
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point is the signals were clear for years, perhaps
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even decades. But you see companies cling to
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a particular business model, an operating protocol,
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a strategy. And if I can just have my sword out
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for one second. I think in the modern organization,
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boards have a lot to answer to in terms of the
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demise of companies. Because boards are overly
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fixated with keeping the CEO in their lane. The
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definition of core business, as you know, Anton,
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is a particular bugbear of mine. Companies define
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their core business at one point in time with
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relevance to a market. But of course, what happens
00:14:37.100 --> 00:14:39.980
over time, markets move. But companies cling
00:14:39.980 --> 00:14:43.460
to this narrow definition. And as we all know,
00:14:43.639 --> 00:14:46.399
the magic is happening at the intersect of industries.
00:14:46.840 --> 00:14:51.740
So I think this boiling frog paradox is certainly
00:14:51.740 --> 00:14:55.379
one that I think has got a massive impact on
00:14:55.379 --> 00:14:58.580
companies. If you're not aware. of over time
00:14:58.580 --> 00:15:00.860
the changes. Let's get a great example. In the
00:15:00.860 --> 00:15:05.100
mobile telecoms business, do we really think
00:15:05.100 --> 00:15:09.240
this drug called dependency on data revenue is
00:15:09.240 --> 00:15:12.000
going to remain? Are we going to be paying for
00:15:12.000 --> 00:15:14.320
data anywhere in the world in 10 years' time
00:15:14.320 --> 00:15:17.440
or in 15 years' time? Whilst the world is being
00:15:17.440 --> 00:15:20.980
wrapped with this digital skin by Starlink and
00:15:20.980 --> 00:15:25.500
others, are we really going to have telcos? Another
00:15:25.500 --> 00:15:27.639
one, which is a great example for me of late,
00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:29.379
is what has happened to the advertising industry.
00:15:29.700 --> 00:15:31.720
I don't know if you've probably seen. The rug
00:15:31.720 --> 00:15:34.580
has been pulled out of the advertising industry
00:15:34.580 --> 00:15:38.059
overnight. But again, it wasn't something that
00:15:38.059 --> 00:15:41.419
happened in the last few months. It came for
00:15:41.419 --> 00:15:44.600
a long period of time. Were these advertising
00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:47.460
companies willing to make the necessary investment
00:15:47.460 --> 00:15:50.980
to start changing their business models? to ensure
00:15:50.980 --> 00:15:53.799
that they get value from the scarcest resource,
00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:56.779
which is creativity, which AI can't necessarily
00:15:56.779 --> 00:15:59.860
give you. And to capitalize on that. Interesting.
00:15:59.960 --> 00:16:01.980
I think it was Ernest Hemingway who said, how
00:16:01.980 --> 00:16:05.840
did you go insolvent? And his answer was gradually
00:16:05.840 --> 00:16:09.360
and then suddenly. And I think that for me captures
00:16:09.360 --> 00:16:12.299
the essence of the boiling frog paradox. These
00:16:12.299 --> 00:16:15.039
things appear to happen suddenly, but in fact,
00:16:15.059 --> 00:16:16.620
they've been happening to you gradually over
00:16:16.620 --> 00:16:19.820
time. So, folks, the second takeaway from our
00:16:19.820 --> 00:16:23.460
boiling frog paradox metaphor, if you like, is
00:16:23.460 --> 00:16:26.440
for leaders to really be alert to the cracks
00:16:26.440 --> 00:16:29.419
in the ice cap that are sort of forming underneath
00:16:29.419 --> 00:16:32.519
our feet and react to them and respond to them
00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:34.919
and prepare for them before they impact on us
00:16:34.919 --> 00:16:38.120
in a very negative fashion. We will, in subsequent
00:16:38.120 --> 00:16:41.200
podcasts, as part of the Fast Forward podcast
00:16:41.200 --> 00:16:44.080
series powered by Future World. We will bring
00:16:44.080 --> 00:16:47.580
you deep dive conversations about each of these
00:16:47.580 --> 00:16:50.440
in much greater depth with some more practical
00:16:50.440 --> 00:16:53.279
examples, more practical tips on how to cope.
00:16:53.419 --> 00:16:56.580
But for now, let's focus on our third metaphor,
00:16:56.860 --> 00:16:59.340
the Ptolemaic, if I've pronounced that correctly,
00:16:59.620 --> 00:17:02.779
pivot. Now, this is a very interesting process,
00:17:02.919 --> 00:17:05.980
folks, as it talks about how one simply pads
00:17:05.980 --> 00:17:10.019
or adds to the way one has always done things
00:17:10.019 --> 00:17:12.730
or how we go about our business or what we believe
00:17:12.730 --> 00:17:15.329
our business value proposition to be. And we
00:17:15.329 --> 00:17:18.349
assume that by adding process, adding features,
00:17:18.410 --> 00:17:22.109
perhaps our future will be guaranteed. And of
00:17:22.109 --> 00:17:24.970
course, we mistake this patchwork of additions,
00:17:25.170 --> 00:17:28.609
patchwork of new layers for progress. And so
00:17:28.609 --> 00:17:31.309
how do we respond to this? Louis, your thoughts
00:17:31.309 --> 00:17:34.750
on the Ptolemaic pivot as our third mental model?
00:17:35.029 --> 00:17:39.369
So of course, for 1400 years, astronomers followed
00:17:40.360 --> 00:17:42.740
Ptolemy's Earth -centered model, whereby the
00:17:42.740 --> 00:17:46.000
Earth was in the center and all the planets,
00:17:46.200 --> 00:17:49.140
the sun, the moon, revolved around the Earth.
00:17:49.259 --> 00:17:52.599
And of course, Copernicus proved it wrong. And
00:17:52.599 --> 00:17:54.519
some CEOs still think the world revolves around
00:17:54.519 --> 00:17:56.119
them and their company, right? This is my point.
00:17:56.240 --> 00:17:58.700
This is exactly... You stole my thunder now,
00:17:58.700 --> 00:18:01.359
Anton. But it's not only that, by the way. I
00:18:01.359 --> 00:18:05.640
think it's also a question of some companies
00:18:05.640 --> 00:18:07.759
not realizing that they're orbiting the wrong
00:18:07.759 --> 00:18:12.579
star. Yeah. And apropos our discussion earlier
00:18:12.579 --> 00:18:17.539
where we discussed this definition of core business,
00:18:17.859 --> 00:18:22.240
is it actually potentially as simple as being
00:18:22.240 --> 00:18:26.400
open, having a culture of openness to adapt,
00:18:26.680 --> 00:18:30.759
to understand, to endorse, to bring in these
00:18:30.759 --> 00:18:34.180
new concepts, to properly investigate them, see
00:18:34.180 --> 00:18:36.920
what is relevant, see what will work, what won't
00:18:36.920 --> 00:18:42.619
work. And to use that and to do that on a consistent
00:18:42.619 --> 00:18:46.940
basis. So I think I'm keen on what Gerd's view
00:18:46.940 --> 00:18:49.500
on this would be. But in conclusion, from my
00:18:49.500 --> 00:18:51.279
side, I just want to say perhaps we could have
00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:54.640
also said this, the arrogance challenge. Yes.
00:18:54.880 --> 00:18:58.859
Yes, indeed. Gerd, let's hear from you. Yeah,
00:18:58.880 --> 00:19:01.200
I think, as I said earlier, this is really about
00:19:01.200 --> 00:19:04.700
the assumptions that you have, what you assume
00:19:04.700 --> 00:19:07.859
to be correct. And so there are religious, societal,
00:19:08.500 --> 00:19:12.220
practical, physical, scientific assumptions.
00:19:12.619 --> 00:19:15.200
Like, you know, many scientists that I meet and
00:19:15.200 --> 00:19:17.059
that I worked with in the past, you know, their
00:19:17.059 --> 00:19:19.299
assumption is that they should be free to invent.
00:19:19.920 --> 00:19:22.740
And whatever it is that they're inventing, and
00:19:22.740 --> 00:19:24.759
in the end, somebody else will take charge of
00:19:24.759 --> 00:19:27.039
it, right? And that's how we got to Oppenheimer.
00:19:27.819 --> 00:19:30.660
And that's why we should not have a Manhattan
00:19:30.660 --> 00:19:34.559
Project for AI, because it's not just about inventing.
00:19:35.880 --> 00:19:38.519
And those are the assumptions. I mean, and how
00:19:38.519 --> 00:19:40.420
do you, how do your assumptions get disturbed?
00:19:40.680 --> 00:19:42.319
Well, you know, from a marriage, you know, that
00:19:42.319 --> 00:19:44.279
your assumptions get disturbed when somebody
00:19:44.279 --> 00:19:46.680
says, you know what, you're just not paying attention.
00:19:46.880 --> 00:19:50.319
I've had enough. Right. And, uh, and that's how
00:19:50.319 --> 00:19:52.460
your assumptions get disturbed. And in business,
00:19:52.660 --> 00:19:55.160
uh, you, you drive against the wall. Your assumption
00:19:55.160 --> 00:19:57.519
has proven to be invalid. Look at Nokia, right.
00:19:57.740 --> 00:19:59.980
And other companies, your assumptions has proven
00:19:59.980 --> 00:20:01.660
invalid. Like we'll never have a phone with a
00:20:01.660 --> 00:20:04.819
touch screen and so on and so on. Um, And then
00:20:04.819 --> 00:20:08.519
if you have like a whole slew of assumptions,
00:20:08.740 --> 00:20:11.220
you know, several in a row, it gets very dangerous
00:20:11.220 --> 00:20:13.079
because no matter what you do, your assumption
00:20:13.079 --> 00:20:14.799
says, no, no, no, no, we can't do that, right?
00:20:15.460 --> 00:20:18.420
And so to free yourself from assumption, it's
00:20:18.420 --> 00:20:20.640
a great exercise to sit down and say, let me
00:20:20.640 --> 00:20:23.200
write down what I believe is the truth about
00:20:23.200 --> 00:20:25.660
my business and about my life, because let's
00:20:25.660 --> 00:20:27.779
be fair in the end, this is a character skill.
00:20:28.019 --> 00:20:30.710
You know, if you're a closed person, you will
00:20:30.710 --> 00:20:33.349
be a close CEO. And we have to work on that.
00:20:33.450 --> 00:20:35.349
I think that is the crucial part is we have to
00:20:35.349 --> 00:20:38.089
change our own assumptions about how everything
00:20:38.089 --> 00:20:40.769
works, especially now with AI. You know, we have
00:20:40.769 --> 00:20:43.430
all these assumptions about what we are, what
00:20:43.430 --> 00:20:46.630
it is. And I think what that's doing good is
00:20:46.630 --> 00:20:49.650
to say to us, what is, you know, what is the
00:20:49.650 --> 00:20:52.269
simplest form in which we can describe our value
00:20:52.269 --> 00:20:55.869
proposition? And, you know, what comes to my
00:20:55.869 --> 00:21:00.349
mind is Microsoft's Excel, for example. I was
00:21:00.349 --> 00:21:02.369
told once, and I've never been able to validate
00:21:02.369 --> 00:21:04.769
this, but there are only a handful of people
00:21:04.769 --> 00:21:08.250
on an A4 page locked away in a vault in Cupertino,
00:21:08.450 --> 00:21:12.210
a list of people that use more than 35 % of Excel's
00:21:12.210 --> 00:21:14.369
features. And of course, they don't want that
00:21:14.369 --> 00:21:17.349
to become public because, you know, what Excel
00:21:17.349 --> 00:21:19.289
has done is, of course, is added complexity,
00:21:19.490 --> 00:21:21.910
added layers, the assumption that everyone is
00:21:21.910 --> 00:21:23.829
using all of these tools and that will keep us
00:21:23.829 --> 00:21:27.309
relevant. But in fact, the simple realization
00:21:27.309 --> 00:21:30.700
needs to be. What are the basics that we're providing
00:21:30.700 --> 00:21:32.740
and what are customers really paying us additional
00:21:32.740 --> 00:21:35.099
value for? And at some point, they'll wake up
00:21:35.099 --> 00:21:37.160
and realize the complexity that they've assumed
00:21:37.160 --> 00:21:39.579
is necessary was never necessary in the first
00:21:39.579 --> 00:21:42.519
place. And perhaps AI is going to make us realize
00:21:42.519 --> 00:21:44.640
that, I think, in quite a few industries. You
00:21:44.640 --> 00:21:47.039
meant Seattle, not Cupertino. You are such an
00:21:47.039 --> 00:21:52.980
ardent Mac fan. I have to concede I am. Our fourth
00:21:52.980 --> 00:21:55.299
mental model is the lighthouse keeper's dilemma.
00:21:55.819 --> 00:21:58.880
And I'm reminded of... A few jokes relating to
00:21:58.880 --> 00:22:01.539
lighthouses. The one is the captain of a massive
00:22:01.539 --> 00:22:05.140
big aircraft carrier who gets a message to say,
00:22:05.180 --> 00:22:06.960
aircraft carrier, please change your course.
00:22:07.119 --> 00:22:11.299
And the captain says, no, I am the huge ship
00:22:11.299 --> 00:22:14.539
XYZ by name, and I won't change my course, you
00:22:14.539 --> 00:22:16.619
change yours. And of course, this banter carries
00:22:16.619 --> 00:22:19.279
on until the lighthouse keeper says, well, it's
00:22:19.279 --> 00:22:21.099
entirely up to you what decision you make. I'm
00:22:21.099 --> 00:22:24.720
a lighthouse, your choice. But nonetheless, folks,
00:22:24.859 --> 00:22:28.430
moving forward. Good. The lighthouse really is,
00:22:28.569 --> 00:22:32.109
you know, the concept is the metaphor, the story
00:22:32.109 --> 00:22:37.150
around that is its function is to warn, its value
00:22:37.150 --> 00:22:39.490
proposition is to warn, of course, for navigational
00:22:39.490 --> 00:22:42.170
safety. But how that's done in the advent of
00:22:42.170 --> 00:22:44.750
technology, GPS signals, for example, has fundamentally
00:22:44.750 --> 00:22:48.069
changed. And the question is, how do organizations
00:22:48.069 --> 00:22:51.910
need to see that their fundamental purpose might
00:22:51.910 --> 00:22:55.279
remain valid and compelling and valuable? but
00:22:55.279 --> 00:22:58.720
how they deliver that, the business model behind
00:22:58.720 --> 00:23:01.140
that profoundly changes. Some thoughts from you
00:23:01.140 --> 00:23:03.160
on that. I think it's very hard to see from the
00:23:03.160 --> 00:23:06.279
inside. And that's even true for our own jobs,
00:23:06.359 --> 00:23:09.799
you know, as we are changing because AI is changing
00:23:09.799 --> 00:23:13.319
what we do. It's very hard to change it from
00:23:13.319 --> 00:23:15.420
the inside. Sometimes it's better if you're capable
00:23:15.420 --> 00:23:19.039
of stepping out and, you know, and to kind of
00:23:19.039 --> 00:23:20.980
live in two worlds. You have today and you have
00:23:20.980 --> 00:23:23.160
to execute today. And then you have tomorrow,
00:23:23.299 --> 00:23:25.079
if you can switch back and forth, you know, then
00:23:25.079 --> 00:23:27.319
you have a good model. And I think in technology,
00:23:27.440 --> 00:23:29.440
you see some leaders like Tim Cook, you know,
00:23:29.460 --> 00:23:32.400
who can do that. And you see other leaders, you
00:23:32.400 --> 00:23:35.200
know, who cannot do that. And then they get stuck,
00:23:35.299 --> 00:23:37.859
like in the car industry. So to be able to look
00:23:37.859 --> 00:23:39.660
at today and execute and then say, you know,
00:23:39.700 --> 00:23:42.579
maybe tomorrow there will not be an iPhone. Maybe
00:23:42.579 --> 00:23:44.599
there will be another interface. And, you know,
00:23:44.599 --> 00:23:46.339
Johnny Ives just stepped out and said, okay,
00:23:46.359 --> 00:23:48.259
the next thing is not going to be a device. It's
00:23:48.259 --> 00:23:50.440
going to be a device of a different sort, right?
00:23:51.609 --> 00:23:54.009
I think to be able to step out, that's the important
00:23:54.009 --> 00:23:56.789
part. And this is also, again, it's a skill that
00:23:56.789 --> 00:24:00.190
you have to practice and to learn. And unfortunately,
00:24:00.390 --> 00:24:02.690
I think one of the major drivers of this is that
00:24:02.690 --> 00:24:05.589
the stock market doesn't reward this kind of
00:24:05.589 --> 00:24:09.049
dual track thinking in two mindsets. It rewards
00:24:09.049 --> 00:24:14.049
execution, which is fine, but we're 20 years
00:24:14.049 --> 00:24:16.769
behind in what the stock market wants as to what
00:24:16.769 --> 00:24:21.579
we really need. And this is a major... challenge
00:24:21.579 --> 00:24:23.880
for us to actually innovate based around all
00:24:23.880 --> 00:24:26.460
the megaships that we're seeing today from AI
00:24:26.460 --> 00:24:30.160
to clinical computing to synthetic biology and
00:24:30.160 --> 00:24:32.200
so on. You know, we have to think of this in
00:24:32.200 --> 00:24:35.099
a different context and not just in the context
00:24:35.099 --> 00:24:38.359
of that. It becomes really important for leaders
00:24:38.359 --> 00:24:40.859
to understand, operate successfully, of course,
00:24:40.880 --> 00:24:42.660
their business of today. I mean, that's what
00:24:42.660 --> 00:24:44.900
rewards shareholders in the short term, provides
00:24:44.900 --> 00:24:48.799
relevance, etc. But the compelling requirement
00:24:48.799 --> 00:24:51.079
is for them at the same time concurrently, and
00:24:51.079 --> 00:24:53.220
this is difficult because they're often contradictory,
00:24:53.539 --> 00:24:56.019
is to contemplate and imagine the business of
00:24:56.019 --> 00:24:58.480
tomorrow. And of course, to do that simultaneously.
00:24:58.480 --> 00:25:00.980
And of course, the higher you move up the leadership
00:25:00.980 --> 00:25:03.740
chain, the more your time investment needs to
00:25:03.740 --> 00:25:06.900
pivot from the today operations into the tomorrow's
00:25:06.900 --> 00:25:08.759
world. And we haven't really seen organizations
00:25:08.759 --> 00:25:11.980
do that in -house very much. Most of that happens
00:25:11.980 --> 00:25:14.240
outside. You know, the music industry was not
00:25:14.240 --> 00:25:17.359
innovated. by the music guys and, you know, by
00:25:17.359 --> 00:25:20.079
Clive Davis. It was innovated by Apple and then
00:25:20.079 --> 00:25:23.839
by Spotify and all that goes. So if that is the
00:25:23.839 --> 00:25:25.660
case in your industry, if you're in the pharma
00:25:25.660 --> 00:25:28.559
industry today, you know the pharma of the future
00:25:28.559 --> 00:25:31.579
is about technology. And you have to look at
00:25:31.579 --> 00:25:34.549
those guys and bring them in. And that's how
00:25:34.549 --> 00:25:36.470
you innovate. That's how you do it, right? And
00:25:36.470 --> 00:25:38.589
I think the trap that we fall into, Louis, and
00:25:38.589 --> 00:25:41.230
I'm keen to hear your comment, is leaders understand,
00:25:41.430 --> 00:25:43.349
or most leaders should understand very clearly,
00:25:43.349 --> 00:25:45.190
what the core assumptions are that make their
00:25:45.190 --> 00:25:47.569
current business successful. And the question
00:25:47.569 --> 00:25:49.690
is, which of those core assumptions remain valid
00:25:49.690 --> 00:25:52.710
in the future? And if all you're focusing on
00:25:52.710 --> 00:25:54.990
is those that are relevant today, and you're
00:25:54.990 --> 00:25:57.529
not questioning which of them become toxic at
00:25:57.529 --> 00:25:59.730
some point in the future, you're again going
00:25:59.730 --> 00:26:02.210
to be caught in the entirely wrong playing field.
00:26:02.329 --> 00:26:05.480
Your thoughts? So just coming back to the metaphor,
00:26:05.619 --> 00:26:10.460
this lighthouse keepers dilemma, of course, lighthouses
00:26:10.460 --> 00:26:16.160
were displaced by GPS. Yes. Ships have GPS. They
00:26:16.160 --> 00:26:18.200
know the depth of the oceans that they're traveling
00:26:18.200 --> 00:26:22.700
on. So that was displaced. So I think the metaphor
00:26:22.700 --> 00:26:26.980
for executives really in this instance is the
00:26:26.980 --> 00:26:30.200
question every executive should ask. It's not
00:26:30.200 --> 00:26:33.079
how do I keep my lighthouse running? But how
00:26:33.079 --> 00:26:37.599
do I ensure safe passage in any weather? And
00:26:37.599 --> 00:26:40.079
that comes back to the point you made around
00:26:40.079 --> 00:26:43.279
the purpose. And I don't want us to lose that
00:26:43.279 --> 00:26:45.900
point around purpose. You know, a purpose statement
00:26:45.900 --> 00:26:49.079
is for me the most important element of any business.
00:26:49.579 --> 00:26:53.539
I hate vision, mission, strategy, or all of those
00:26:53.539 --> 00:26:58.420
things. But purpose endures. The purpose statement
00:26:58.420 --> 00:27:01.839
asks, why do people get up in the morning to
00:27:01.839 --> 00:27:04.019
do? Why do they come to work to do what they
00:27:04.019 --> 00:27:06.920
want to do? And this is this lighthouse keeper's
00:27:06.920 --> 00:27:09.619
dilemma. I think exactly that. The lighthouse
00:27:09.619 --> 00:27:12.759
keeper, what they did and how they did it shifted,
00:27:12.880 --> 00:27:15.039
but why they were there in the first place never
00:27:15.039 --> 00:27:17.660
shifted. Some examples, Walt Disney's purpose
00:27:17.660 --> 00:27:21.859
statement is to make people happy. Sony, in its
00:27:21.859 --> 00:27:25.599
early formative years, was to change the perception
00:27:25.599 --> 00:27:30.539
of Japanese poor quality. That was Sony's purpose
00:27:30.539 --> 00:27:32.900
statement. Yeah, yeah. So there are many, many
00:27:32.900 --> 00:27:36.380
companies and also ones that we see, successful
00:27:36.380 --> 00:27:38.980
companies today. And I want to say, if you look
00:27:38.980 --> 00:27:45.240
at the S &P 500, any major index, Fortune 500,
00:27:45.619 --> 00:27:50.359
I think without fail, you would be hard -pressed
00:27:50.359 --> 00:27:53.559
not to find a very, very clear purpose of the
00:27:53.559 --> 00:27:56.619
top -performing companies. And I would think
00:27:56.619 --> 00:27:59.799
purpose… And companies that you would generally
00:27:59.799 --> 00:28:02.720
regard and read about as innovative businesses
00:28:02.720 --> 00:28:06.460
go hand in hand. They are one and the same. Absolutely
00:28:06.460 --> 00:28:09.700
correct. Because they innovate by fulfilling
00:28:09.700 --> 00:28:12.700
their purpose, not by clinging to a core business,
00:28:12.819 --> 00:28:16.220
not by being a lighthouse. And not being a victim,
00:28:16.279 --> 00:28:18.880
if you like, or prisoner to those narrow definitions
00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:21.960
and being willing to explore. So, folks, there
00:28:21.960 --> 00:28:25.779
we have it. Our fourth mental model. Our next
00:28:25.779 --> 00:28:28.799
and final one to introduce to you as an introduction
00:28:28.799 --> 00:28:32.359
to the series of the Future Forward podcast brought
00:28:32.359 --> 00:28:35.779
to you by Future World is to think about Darwin's
00:28:35.779 --> 00:28:37.859
finches. Now, I had the personal privilege as
00:28:37.859 --> 00:28:40.619
one of my bucket list items in my life to spend
00:28:40.619 --> 00:28:44.799
a few weeks in the islands that Darwin sort of
00:28:44.799 --> 00:28:47.960
did his research on, the Galapagos Islands. And
00:28:47.960 --> 00:28:51.039
it was fascinating to understand firsthand in
00:28:51.039 --> 00:28:53.539
front of me how these finches were able to evolve
00:28:53.539 --> 00:28:56.119
in some cases. and stay relevant as a species
00:28:56.119 --> 00:28:58.500
despite the changing environment around them.
00:28:58.660 --> 00:29:01.319
So the story about Darwin's finches really, folks,
00:29:01.440 --> 00:29:06.220
is about how do specialists become adaptive generalists
00:29:06.220 --> 00:29:09.720
and how do they not be trapped by their deep
00:29:09.720 --> 00:29:13.519
specializations so narrowly defined that they
00:29:13.519 --> 00:29:17.180
just miss again the shifts in this mind -boggling
00:29:17.180 --> 00:29:20.339
world that we're moving into in the future. Gerd,
00:29:20.420 --> 00:29:22.599
your thought, have you been able to visit the
00:29:22.599 --> 00:29:25.490
Galapagos Gerd? and see this adaption firsthand
00:29:25.490 --> 00:29:28.450
and other stories you might bring to explain
00:29:28.450 --> 00:29:31.089
to our listeners what this might mean for them
00:29:31.089 --> 00:29:33.210
as leaders in our new world. Well, I have not
00:29:33.210 --> 00:29:35.809
been to Galapagos. I would love to. But, of course,
00:29:35.849 --> 00:29:38.009
in that example, you know, I've been doing this
00:29:38.009 --> 00:29:40.130
for 23 years or something, and I have many examples
00:29:40.130 --> 00:29:44.130
of how companies fall into that trap of not being
00:29:44.130 --> 00:29:46.329
able to adapt to this sort of evolution. You
00:29:46.329 --> 00:29:48.109
know, let's be honest. You know, right now we
00:29:48.109 --> 00:29:50.190
have the biggest evolution in humankind since
00:29:50.190 --> 00:29:53.019
the Internet, really. or electrification, which
00:29:53.019 --> 00:29:56.440
is the device of intelligent machines, intelligent
00:29:56.440 --> 00:30:00.019
parenthesis. But nevertheless, a huge disruption
00:30:00.019 --> 00:30:02.480
is now general purpose technology. And a lot
00:30:02.480 --> 00:30:04.759
of companies don't realize what that means to
00:30:04.759 --> 00:30:07.119
their work and their workers and the products.
00:30:07.140 --> 00:30:09.740
And the fact that knowledge is now a commodity
00:30:09.740 --> 00:30:13.519
and intelligence becoming a commodity of a sort,
00:30:13.680 --> 00:30:16.059
you know, what exactly will all that mean? And
00:30:16.059 --> 00:30:18.339
I think this is now... This is the time where
00:30:18.339 --> 00:30:21.880
we need to think about what actually is the differentiator
00:30:21.880 --> 00:30:24.420
between us and the machines, right? And this
00:30:24.420 --> 00:30:26.500
is the key question. That will also change markets
00:30:26.500 --> 00:30:28.960
completely because markets will use AI as well.
00:30:29.079 --> 00:30:31.779
So very, very big topic is to be able to actually
00:30:31.779 --> 00:30:35.799
become something different. Again, I think at
00:30:35.799 --> 00:30:37.500
the character scale, you know, if you can do
00:30:37.500 --> 00:30:39.039
that in your own life, you can probably do it
00:30:39.039 --> 00:30:41.640
with your company if you have enough power over
00:30:41.640 --> 00:30:45.279
it. So it's something we have to practice. And
00:30:45.279 --> 00:30:47.549
unfortunately, I think, We learned at business
00:30:47.549 --> 00:30:49.549
school, I didn't go to business school, but many
00:30:49.549 --> 00:30:52.210
of us learned at business school certain crafts
00:30:52.210 --> 00:30:54.390
and skills and models and, you know, and then
00:30:54.390 --> 00:30:58.410
we rinse and repeat, right? And this is not how
00:30:58.410 --> 00:31:00.049
it works anymore. Now it's basically the opposite.
00:31:00.549 --> 00:31:03.109
So what we've learned there has become sort of
00:31:03.109 --> 00:31:05.690
the back, in the back mirror, you know, fading
00:31:05.690 --> 00:31:10.700
over here very quickly. It's the neuroplasticity
00:31:10.700 --> 00:31:12.960
that we experience, right? As we grow, as we
00:31:12.960 --> 00:31:15.019
become more experienced, as we become successful,
00:31:15.079 --> 00:31:16.720
of course, we think that that's the way to do
00:31:16.720 --> 00:31:19.140
it. That's the way we should always do it. And
00:31:19.140 --> 00:31:21.559
I often somewhat humorously, Louis, say to people,
00:31:21.759 --> 00:31:24.220
you know, just do me a favor. And when you have
00:31:24.220 --> 00:31:26.599
your next shower, just wash your body in a different
00:31:26.599 --> 00:31:29.559
sequence. And I guarantee you some important
00:31:29.559 --> 00:31:31.960
body part will be left out of the process because...
00:31:32.190 --> 00:31:33.910
You know, we're so trained to think along certain
00:31:33.910 --> 00:31:36.950
specific lines, certain routines that we do off
00:31:36.950 --> 00:31:39.109
-pat without challenging them, without thinking
00:31:39.109 --> 00:31:43.130
about them. And so this ability to shift. And,
00:31:43.230 --> 00:31:44.849
of course, it's tempered by the fact that we
00:31:44.849 --> 00:31:47.650
want to do everything absolutely perfectly, right,
00:31:47.750 --> 00:31:50.230
with zero risk attached to it. And, of course,
00:31:50.250 --> 00:31:53.210
that mitigates against actually being able to
00:31:53.210 --> 00:31:56.869
adapt and to change. And so our neuro sort of
00:31:56.869 --> 00:31:59.250
memory muscles just are so embedded in certain
00:31:59.250 --> 00:32:02.099
ways. How have you experienced that in your life?
00:32:02.579 --> 00:32:04.960
So firstly, let me just say, Gerd, my already
00:32:04.960 --> 00:32:08.339
high aspiration of you is just increased by the
00:32:08.339 --> 00:32:13.079
fact that you didn't go to business school. But
00:32:13.079 --> 00:32:16.240
in any event, I want to, in fact, respond with
00:32:16.240 --> 00:32:20.019
a question, Anton. And this is, of course, Darwin's
00:32:20.019 --> 00:32:23.420
Fincher's effect, of course, happened over a
00:32:23.420 --> 00:32:27.059
very long period of time. Yes, yes. And it was...
00:32:29.729 --> 00:32:32.750
The finchers were required to adapt. And could
00:32:32.750 --> 00:32:34.509
because they had the time to do so. And the time
00:32:34.509 --> 00:32:37.490
to do so. Yeah. Okay. Now, this is a little bit
00:32:37.490 --> 00:32:40.890
opposite to the time frame in a corporate sense
00:32:40.890 --> 00:32:44.329
that companies have today. Correct. Yes. So how
00:32:44.329 --> 00:32:47.250
do we deal with that? If you don't have time,
00:32:47.390 --> 00:32:49.730
how do you respond to Darwin's finchers effect
00:32:49.730 --> 00:32:51.730
if you don't have the time? People argue that
00:32:51.730 --> 00:32:54.150
change has been there throughout the ages, right?
00:32:54.670 --> 00:32:56.869
But what we're seeing is the cycle of change,
00:32:56.990 --> 00:33:00.170
the product lifecycle relevance, the R &D lifecycles
00:33:00.170 --> 00:33:03.390
are shortening dramatically all the time. And,
00:33:03.430 --> 00:33:06.049
of course, it's compounded by the speed of technological
00:33:06.049 --> 00:33:11.269
change. But the single reason for the speed sort
00:33:11.269 --> 00:33:14.109
of escalating to the extent that it does is one
00:33:14.109 --> 00:33:16.950
simple word. It's called connectivity. Now, connectivity
00:33:16.950 --> 00:33:20.230
is driven by what's now become today instant,
00:33:20.390 --> 00:33:23.740
real -time, zero latency, everything. So speed
00:33:23.740 --> 00:33:26.859
is a commodity. Adaptability becomes just a requirement.
00:33:27.000 --> 00:33:28.400
We shouldn't even be talking about it. It should
00:33:28.400 --> 00:33:30.779
be like oxygen, right? And so the question is,
00:33:30.799 --> 00:33:33.700
how do we build optionality into our plans, our
00:33:33.700 --> 00:33:36.220
strategies, and our thinking? How do we look
00:33:36.220 --> 00:33:40.140
at alternatives that are quicker and easier to
00:33:40.140 --> 00:33:42.059
do? And of course, how do we shift away from
00:33:42.059 --> 00:33:44.960
this need to be absolutely perfect? How do we
00:33:44.960 --> 00:33:48.279
not follow global best practice? I mean, global
00:33:48.279 --> 00:33:50.200
best practice has been taught in business schools
00:33:50.200 --> 00:33:52.990
as the One of the yardsticks by which you measure
00:33:52.990 --> 00:33:55.289
whether what you're doing is acceptable or not.
00:33:55.809 --> 00:33:58.930
And yet, global best practice, when you implement
00:33:58.930 --> 00:34:01.630
it, is 3, 6, 9, 12 months old already. The world's
00:34:01.630 --> 00:34:04.529
moved on. So maybe the Darwin effect is realizing
00:34:04.529 --> 00:34:08.030
you don't have time. Absolutely. That's the critical
00:34:08.030 --> 00:34:10.429
question. And folks, let me just tell you that
00:34:10.429 --> 00:34:13.269
when I worked with a Chinese bank recently, they
00:34:13.269 --> 00:34:16.269
implement an idea in a meeting that is then rolled
00:34:16.269 --> 00:34:18.989
out into their business network in 36 hours.
00:34:19.530 --> 00:34:22.670
Every single new idea. That is speed. And of
00:34:22.670 --> 00:34:24.309
course, the rest of us take weeks and months.
00:34:24.610 --> 00:34:27.710
So folks, there we have it. Our first podcast
00:34:27.710 --> 00:34:30.230
in this series. I hope you've enjoyed the conversations,
00:34:30.550 --> 00:34:33.610
the provocations, the new mental models, if you
00:34:33.610 --> 00:34:35.710
like. Let me just remind you, folks, there are
00:34:35.710 --> 00:34:38.130
five new mental models. In the rest of the series,
00:34:38.230 --> 00:34:40.090
we will be unpacking each of these in much more
00:34:40.090 --> 00:34:42.230
detail with some granular examples, if you like.
00:34:42.489 --> 00:34:44.269
In the rest of the series, we'll be bringing
00:34:44.269 --> 00:34:46.889
you insights from other speakers from around
00:34:46.889 --> 00:34:48.670
the world with deep subject matter expertise.
00:34:49.289 --> 00:34:51.570
to challenge you, to excite you, to hopefully
00:34:51.570 --> 00:34:54.690
get you to formulate a new dream, a new ambition
00:34:54.690 --> 00:34:57.449
for yourself, for your family, for your children,
00:34:57.550 --> 00:34:59.929
and of course, for your business, your shareholders,
00:35:00.050 --> 00:35:02.969
and your investors. Please join us as signal
00:35:02.969 --> 00:35:05.570
finders from the future. Share this with those
00:35:05.570 --> 00:35:08.150
around you, spread the word, and let's create
00:35:08.150 --> 00:35:11.510
a global movement of leaders more acutely aware
00:35:11.510 --> 00:35:13.909
of the demands to stay relevant, stay valuable,
00:35:14.090 --> 00:35:18.400
and stay hopeful for our future. Good? From Lugano
00:35:18.400 --> 00:35:20.500
in Switzerland, great having you on the podcast.
00:35:20.579 --> 00:35:23.119
Thank you very much. Louis Herring, great to
00:35:23.119 --> 00:35:24.900
have you with you, be with you in the studio.
00:35:25.139 --> 00:35:27.199
And so to everyone who joined us in this first
00:35:27.199 --> 00:35:29.699
episode of the podcast series, Fast Forward,
00:35:29.920 --> 00:35:32.579
brought to you and powered by Future World, thank
00:35:32.579 --> 00:35:34.639
you very much for joining us today. And watch
00:35:34.639 --> 00:35:37.460
for the signals for our next podcast in this
00:35:37.460 --> 00:35:38.920
exciting series.