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[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Explaining Brazil, a podcast by the Brazilian Report. My name is Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of the Brazilian Report.
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And as it has always been the case, uh, this year in this electoral season, I'm here joined by James Green of Brown University and of the Brazil Office Alliance. James, how are you?
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So this is our first time meeting after, uh, our, our four hours long, um, election day live broadcast. What a crazy day that was, ni- night that was. Um, how am I doing? I'm in New York. I jumped a plane yesterday.
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I was trying to see if I could get, catch a ride with some guy who was leaving through Argentina to Ecuador to Miami, but then we didn't make the connection, so I didn't get that ride. I had to go on a Delta flight.
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But I'm in New York now for a while to vote in the, uh, US elections, and I'm gonna go back to Brazil to celebrate my birthday in November. But I'm fine.
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So you, you, you hinted, uh, of this, and, uh, it seems we laughed, uh, each other off. Um, there, there is a lot of catching up to do. As expected, uh, Flavio Bolsonaro did not acknowledge the results.
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He says that, uh, they were unacceptable, that because of the two-hour extension, which his campaign also requested, uh, the, the election was shameful. Uh, and then also as
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slightly expected, uh, he fled the country. Uh, so there's a lot to unpack here. Uh,
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on the next day after the election, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued a ruling saying, ordering Flavio Bolsonaro to surrender his passports, and say that he could not leave the country.
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He had 24 hours to comply, and within those 24 hours, he escaped. Now, we, we still don't know exactly through which route.
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Officially, uh, the Argentine government says he crossed the Tancredo Neves International Bridge in Foz do Iguaçu, from where, uh, he took a plane to Ecuador and then Miami.
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There are other suspicions that he might have flown from, uh, Brasilia to, uh, the, the outskirts of Buenos Aires. Then from there, uh, he would have gone to, uh, Puerto Iguazú, uh, which is the Argentine side of the,
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of the Iguazu, uh, Falls. Um, now, uh, one thing seems clear,
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he had the help of the Argentine government, and he had at least the acquiescence of Washington because he was given, uh, a humanitarian stay permit as soon as he landed.
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Um, now, it, it, it is still uncertain whether this was just an escape with, uh, let's say, the benevolent eyes of Washington and Buenos Aires, whether this was an extraction,
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in which case it would be a far bigger diplomatic problem between Brazil, Argentina, and Brazil and the US.
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Yeah, and I mean, I think, um, the idea for the Trump administration to let him come to the United States is the, the option of creating a government in exile, um, which is not gonna happen because, uh, his, Flavio himself realized that and changed the statement that he issued three times, and eventually took off, um, the title of the exiled pr- the elected president of Brazil to the leader of the opposition of Brazil.
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Uh, and I think, you know, Trump wants to keep him in his back pocket in the United States so that if he needs to mobilize hi- his, his support, uh, and for his campaign against Brazil, he can do that.
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Um, but it seems that Trump realizes that this, this immediate battle has been lost, and so therefore, there's not gonna be an attempt to, uh, legitimize Flavio as the legitim- the president elect of the country and, and there'll be a de facto recognizing of, of, of the election results.
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Um, and then we'll see what the next step is for the Trump administration. Uh, Flavio has not been defeated in this regard. I think he's, he's trying to,
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and I imagine he and his brother will be trying, and allies will be trying to guarantee their space within the Trump administration. But after the
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historic defeat of the Democra- of the Republicans on Tuesday of next week, I think, uh, Flavio's gonna be even in a more difficult position because Trump is gonna be scrambling to regain, uh, legitimacy and support, and I don't think an incursion in Brazil will be, uh, a high priority for him at that point.
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Right. I mean, the, uh, you're mentioning the midterms, which are due on November the 3rd, but...
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And yes, polls have, uh, favored the Democrats, but polls have favored the Democrats in the past, so this is gonna be that, uh- I, I, I, I would, I could, I would bet a million dollars if I had a million dollars in the bank that the Democrats will win control of the House.
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I won't bet on the Senate because it's still a toss-up. That, that, that, that's a, that's- But it's still possible. If they're gonna win the House, there's no way they're not.
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Even if Trump tries to implement a, a campaign of, of, uh, of, uh, controlling or to voter suppression or challenging electoral results, the, uh, apparatus that's being developed to legal challenges against any of the challenges of Trump are, are incredibly strong, and I think, uh, he will fail at this effort as well, just as, uh, attempts prior to the elections have largely failed.
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The courts have thrown out many of his complaints about different elections and electoral processes.
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But, you know, anything can happen in elections, and I'm not, I'm not assuring that the, the Democrats will win the Hou- or the Senate, but they definitely will win the House. There's no way they won't win the House
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Now, uh, you mentioned also the letter that was published by Flávio Bolsonaro the day that he landed in Miami, uh, in which, yes, the first draft said that he was the true president-elect of Brazil.
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Uh, then he changed to the leader of Brazil.
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And, uh, [laughs] I remember, uh, it may be a little bit harsh, but it reminded me a lot of a scene from The Office when someone tells Michael Scott, "You should declare bankruptcy," then he storms, uh, out of his office and he said, "I declare bankruptcy."
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And I mean, uh, uh, uh, uh, Flávio did a little bit like that because while he was declaring himself the true president-elect, his allies were recognizing the elections here, they were projecting a future already in the opposition.
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Uh, so it bec- it becomes really, um, uh, uh, uncertain where the Bolsonaros stand, uh, in this political landscape at the moment. I, I'm in no rush to write their obituaries because we have- No...
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people have done that in the past, and I think the Brazilian right has proven, uh, time and again that it is willing to flirt with putschism i- i- if it feels that that can bring, uh, short-term electoral gains.
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And we have seen, for instance, uh, Senate President, uh, Davi Alcolumbre, who was maybe walking like a dead man walking until last week. He bought Lula in the dip.
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Uh, Lula got elected, then he became again this, uh, one of the favorites to, uh, winning a s- a new term as Senate president. He's already
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saying that, "Well, uh, maybe we could pass amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro and for people who were involved in the January 8th, 2023 insurrection." Uh, so th- th- there you go.
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I, I mean, it's still too early to, to, to, to, to know, uh, what will be the state of Bolsonarism.
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But some movements are interesting to see because right after, uh, the election, I think that, uh, in the same way that we discussed after the first round, Brasília already accommodating, uh, to a projected Flávio Bolsonaro presidency.
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Now that he's out of office, the, the opposite movement is happening.
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I think the order for him to surrender his passports, while, uh, totally legitimate from the legal standpoint, would not have come had he won the election.
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So there is a political element to this kind of procedures involving people this high up.
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Um, we're also seeing that Congress, uh, has started talks about changing the electoral system and moving from Brazil's open list proportional system to, uh, a big system similar to Germany, uh, to the one that Germany uses, uh, or even, uh, uh, something in between.
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Uh, the idea being to, um, reduce the power of influencers as these vote magnets that inf- artificially inflate, uh, some parties' congressional benches.
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You know, I think Lula has a lot of challenges ahead of him, and one of the big challenges now is gonna be to, to maintain his coalition, and he's gonna have to appoint very different people, and to bring in to the coalition enough support that he can get certain things passed, uh, through the Congress.
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And that means making the deals with the Centrão, with the PSD and other parties that, um, you know, are really sitting out looking to see who's gonna win and then jump to that side, uh, to get a, a political appointment and so to maintain a political control.
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Uh, and I think he has to be very smart about that because the, the right is clearly saying that they wanna, uh, first impeach members of the Supreme Court, uh, Alexandre de Moraes, but it's clearly implicit that they would love to find the pretext to be able to try to im- impeach Lula.
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Uh, and so his alleged skills at being a brilliant conciliator and finding ways to make deals, uh, needs to be at play right now.
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On the other hand, uh, this could result in, um, a weakening of some of his support, uh, if he does come to some agreement around, uh, an amnesty of some kind for, for, uh, for Jair Bolsonaro.
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And the other problem is that the investigations against, uh, Flávio now will- are gonna proceed, I'm assuming, unless, again, there's some big agreement within, uh, the Supreme Court that let's just forget everyone's accusations.
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I don't think that's gonna happen.
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People are making that speculation there'll be some big a- agreement among all the parties, and everyone will just kind of ignore all the, uh, the implications of the involvement on the Banco Mas.
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So I, I just think that it's a scandal that really will continue to, uh, explode. Flávio will be one of the main, uh,
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culprits in this, in this situation, but I think other, other people will be brought ch- will be at least under scrutiny and p- possibly even, uh, made ch- charged with, with crimes or improprieties.
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So, um, I think it's open, and I think you're right. We should not declare, uh, that the Bolsonarist, uh, movement is dead. On the contrary, it, it still represents a block of about 30% of the, of the people in Brazil.
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And those people who lost, who are adamant Bolsonaro supporters, are gonna buy the narrative that the elections were stolen, that the Northeast cheats, and they all depend on Bolsa Familia, and Lula is an opportunist and is a thief, et cetera, et cetera.
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All that is gonna remain.
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And already, uh, Nicolas Feder and other people are, are repeating that, that narrative to consolidate it in people's minds, so that's the script for the next four years about why the current government is illegitimate, and therefore why it's appropriate to support efforts to impeach President Lula.
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Which I think will be... I don't know if it'll be attempted, but it's certainly being considered and will be planned. Whether it can be actually carried out is another question
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Yeah, I mean, uh, there will be no shortages of impeachment requests.
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Those every single president in Brazil have faced by the hundreds, but the power to, uh, turn them into, uh, uh, an impeachment trial lies in the hands of one person and one person only, which is the House speaker.
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Uh, now I, I think that, uh, while, um, both of us agree on the fact that, uh, we should never, uh, uh,
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write a political force's obituary before everything is said and done, and Bolsonarismo has proven to have more lives than a cat, um, this, this, uh, situation gives the Brazilian right a rare opportunity to break from Bolsonarismo because the, the family has never been this weak.
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You have the patriarch under house arrest and in, a- and, uh, uh, prevented from making any political speech. You have the two, uh, two of the three eldest sons abroad.
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The two remaining sons that have elected, uh, offices, they are not presidential material. Uh, they are not charismatic. Uh, they, they would not cut as, uh...
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I mean, if Flavio was already a downgrade in terms of charisma from Jair, now that would be an even bigger cliff that, uh, uh, they would have to, to fall.
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Uh, the only person with the online presence, the charisma, and the name would be Michelle Bolsonaro, but she kind of has her own thing going.
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Uh, on election night when everybody was posting sad pictures and asking for the system to be, um, broken with, uh, she was posting happy faces saying that, uh, she was glad that, uh, her ally, Celina Leão, won the Brasília governorship, that she and her ally, Bia Kicis, won both seats, uh, Senate seats up for grabs in Brasília.
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So she's playing her own game. Uh- She's playing, yeah... and, and, and again, th- having this opportunity does not mean the right will break with the Bolsonaros. I'm just saying that there is an opportunity.
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No, but I mean, I think the, the other example that one needs to give is Tar- Tarcisio de Freitas, b- because
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he was at the election night, uh, uh, party of, of, uh, Flavio, next to him, supporting him on f- uh, uh, participating in all of the m- uh, the campaign events possible.
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And, uh, he's clearly now setting himself up as the, the leading candidate for the t- uh, 2030 elections. Now, four years is a long time in Brazilian history for many things to happen.
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I mean, one could even imagine a, a, a, a slate of Tarcisio and Michelle, president and vice president, uh, in, in 2- 2030, which would be a very, very powerful, uh, block to defeat at this moment. But
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we're four years away from '30, and so I think a lot of things could happen between now and then. But you're right, I, I think, uh, the family i- itself is i- in crisis. It's in, in a defensive position right now.
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And I think, uh, even though, uh, the Trump administration is keeping Flavio in its, this back pocket, and Flavio does not want to return to Brazil because he doesn't want to be, uh, put in jail. Uh, uh, so I think
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he's there, he's there if the political situation requires him to come back in some way to, to, for some reason, uh, to claim the mantle of the leadership, but I think he is, as you, as you say, relatively weakened right now.
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Now, that 30% of the population that supports the far right, that has supported the far right historically, is still there supporting the far right.
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They're not gonna go away, and they're going to repeat all of the narratives that are being constructed right now about fraudulent elections and the corruption of Lula, et cetera, et cetera.
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Uh, but, um, they lost, and so they're gonna have to face that reality even though they did win in the Congress, and we, we have to understand that that's gonna make them a very strong force, uh, in the, in the, in the coming years.
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Now, uh, talking about 2030, and I think, uh- Already? I'll tr- Yeah, exactly. That was, that was what I was going to say, that, uh, as a journalist, we always love to put the, the cart, uh, in front of the,
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um- The horse... o- of the horse. Uh, so let, let, let's talk a little bit because now, uh, Lula will have... We'll talk about both sides of the, of the aisle.
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Lula will have four years to manufacture a successor in circumstances that are far more challenging than, uh, the ones he had in '26, uh, in 2006, I'm sorry. In 2006, the two
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number two guys he had, José Dirceu and Antonio Palocci, fell to corruption scandals. Um, then he pulled, uh, Dilma Rousseff out of nowhere. Uh, she was running for- Yeah, she was the Minister of Mines and Energy.
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She wasn't out of nowhere. No, no, but out of nowhere politically speaking- Okay... because she, she, she had not, uh, been elected, not even to class representative before running for president [laughs].
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So politically speaking- She, she did get elected to the leadership of the armed struggle organization she was a part of, but that was a small group of people who elected her to that position- [laughs]...
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for a period of time. She was the leadership of the region of São Paulo of one of the armed struggle organizations. So she has been elected, let's be fair. Okay, fair enough. But, uh,
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but, uh, but then, uh, the results were terrible, uh, to put it plainly. Yeah. Uh, her administration was, uh, headed a, a disastrous political e- economic policy.
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Uh, she was the face of the 20, uh, 15 crisis. And then, uh-
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And still, the, the, the economic crisis that happened during the Dilma Rousseff, uh, years are still part of the reason why so many people are skeptical about the Workers' Party.
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Uh, now, uh, Lula tried with Fernando Haddad, uh, a man who is brilliant, who has, um, really a lot of, uh...
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He, he, he, he ma- he had a lot of accomplishments as education minister, as São Paulo's mayor, and as finance minister. But I mean, I would say he was not a good candidate.
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He's not someone who Brazilians can relate with. Uh, now we are already seeing two candidates pop, uh, Senator Camilo Santana, the former governor of Ceará, and, uh, Piauí governor, uh, Rafael Fonteles. Um,
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how, how do you see these options? Do you think that Geraldo Alckmin could be someone that the left could rally around? No. So there's two things.
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First of all, I don't think the PT will want to, there to be a candidate who's not a member of the PT as the presidential candidate. Fair enough, yeah. And that's really important for many reasons.
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Well, among them is the funding that goes through, the government funding that goes through the political party that has, that has a p- presidential candidate. So I think that's one consideration.
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It's so, it's so far away. I mean, I think to speculate what's gonna happen on the left in terms of candidates, it's just so distant.
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We can say that that's a possibility with Tarcísio because he's made it explicit, and he got reelected to the governor of the state of São Paulo, and that's a very important position.
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He can do a lot of things in the next four years to claim that he's been a brilliant governor, and therefore he should be the next president of the country.
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Uh, and so I think that is not unfair to speculate of his primacy in this moment, uh, for the election. The, uh, on the other side, I think it's so im- it's so premature. So many things could happen.
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We have to see- It is... who's qualified and stuff like- But at the same time, the clock is ticking because Lula has spent, what, 40 years, uh- Right...
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killing every attempt of a new leader emerging within his camp, and now he has a timetable. He has to have someone in line to defend his legacy- I, I'm not sure that he knows-... in four years...
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I don't think that's the way Lula... I'm, I don't know if this for a fact. I'm not a personal friend of Lula. I haven't been in the inner circles.
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I think he's gonna wait to see all the dynamics of what's gonna happen in composing the government, who's gonna be in what position, and that, that depends also.
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And some of the people you're mentioning could be appointed to a government position, and then be a disastrous minister, and then disappear. I'm assuming that he is thinking of options and possibilities now.
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Um, and, but I think it's very immature to think, to see that he's anointed an, uh, uh, an heir. I think he's gonna see how different people perform in the next period of time, and he always demands loyalty.
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So he's gonna be wanting to have people close to him that he can trust to carry on his legacy.
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Um, and it's, I, I, I know we can, we can think of o- other people as well and talk about them as possible, but I think it really depends on the first year of the governance, the, the composition of the first government that he sets up, and the first year of performance.
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That's gonna make the big, big, uh, difference about who emerges as the leading candidates.
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And, and before that, you know, we can speculate on other names as well, but I think it's, um, it's, it's fun to do, but I'm not sure it has a much long-term, uh, meaning.
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And not to dis- diminish your, uh, attempts to do that, but I, I think it's really, it's way too early to understand how that's gonna play out.
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No, I, I understand, but- We have to get through the transition government at least and figure out who's gonna be the new ministers and how Lula has managed to balance the different forces, how he's brought in the, the Centrão, in what way and what capacity, what kind of deals he makes, who ends up running the House and the Senate.
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These are factors that are gonna influence the tone of his government as well. No, absolutely.
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But one thing that is interesting is that right after, uh, the electoral win, uh, many people in the left start pumping up the name of Rafael Fonteles to the finance ministry, which for me, uh, calls my attention in many ways because finance ministry is the, it- it's usually the type of job that kills one's presidential aspirations.
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The only person, uh, for whom that was a stepping stone was Fernando Henrique Cardoso in very, very unique circumstances because he was the father of the Real, the currency, and the economic plan that came with, that killed hyperinflation in Brazil.
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We don't have hyperinflation, so we don't have that, uh, massive, uh, upside for someone to be... Because the thing is, being the finance minister, uh, you, you have to say no to a lot of people.
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You have to make, uh, many people unhappy along the ways. A- and I mean, and this government already knows that some type of austerity- Exactly... reform will be necessary.
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So there's gonna be a balance between the social programs that Lula's promised and, uh, consolidating of the ones that already exist and exactly this, this, this pressure to, to cut the budget.
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And that's gonna, I think that would be a, the death toll- knoll for any minister of, of, of, of, of finance or Yeah... a Fazenda. So I think, again, I think it's, we just have to wait and see a little bit more.
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We also have to see to what extent Trump decides to, uh, attack the country, to, uh, try to disrupt it economically, or whether he kind of gives up on that.
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To what extent Itamaraty manages to negotiate some deals on certain of the trade questions. To what extent, uh, Trump feels d- on the defensive, uh, after his debacle, uh, next Tuesday.
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These are all the factors that will play into how this will, will end up, um, happening at the end of the day. And I think it's, again, it's a little too early to speculate on this.
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Um, I think we need to see some new faces coming to the foreground of leading this government and seeing how they do to determine whether there's, among them, one who can actually mobilize the population in a way to, to stand up against Tarcísio.
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That'll be a ve- it's gonna be a formidable- Uh, opponent to anyone. And again, in a year, he could be fallen. Who could, who could, who knows what could happen in this regard?
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Um, some scandal in Sao Paulo could weaken him and therefore make him an eligible candidate as well. Now, you mentioned the U.S., and I think we should circle back to that because
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I think it's fascinating to try to assess how influential the Bolsonaros are in Washington. And I think that they clearly have the ears of many people within the State Department.
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To what extent that translates into real action, I think it's debatable. For instance, the tariffs thing. Brazil was not the only one to have tariffs against. Certainly, Brazil has many steep ones, but
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I would say that Trump does believe in tariffs. That is the linchpin of his trade policy. So he rationalized it by saying that, oh, we're putting tariffs because they are persecuting Bolsonaro.
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But my understanding is if Bolsonaro hadn't been prosecuted, Trump would find another reason to slap tariffs on Brazil.
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In the same way that the two-hour extension on Sunday was not the reason why Flavio Bolsonaro did not accept the results. If the polls had closed 5 p.m. sharp, he would have found another reason for that.
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The PCC and Comando Vermelho terrorist label, that is also part of the U.S. foreign policy doctrine in this administration.
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And we also have to factor in that a week from now, we might be talking about a whole new dynamic in Washington, because like you alluded to, the Democrats are projected to flip the House and may even flip the Senate.
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So can you talk a little bit to people who are listening and watching this? What is the power of the U.S. Congress in foreign policy? Because Congress in the U.S.
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has way more of a say in regards to foreign policy than it has in Brazil, for instance.
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So the reason that Congress in the United States has this power is because of the Nixon administration, the corruption around the Watergate scandal in which the Republicans tried to infiltrate the Democratic Party and eliminate their enemies.
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And this backfired. And so Nixon was pushed out of office. And in 1974, there was a
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tsunami election in which the Democrats won control of the House and the Senate by a vast majority and implemented a series of reforms, including the War Powers Act, which demanded that the Congress be involved in declaring war.
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And so precisely this kind of issue will be, I think, taking a lot of Trump's concern. It's very likely, or at least there's speculation that there will be another incursion into Iran after the midterm elections.
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Bibi Netanyahu won a bloc of votes, but he doesn't have enough members of the Knesset, the parliament, to, at this moment, form a government. And it's speculated already in Israel that it's likely that he will try to
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convince Trump for another attack against Iran. And again, it's not going to solve Trump's problem.
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He's going to have severe economic problems because of the high gas prices as a result of the ongoing war and the inability to resolve this war. And so these are factors which I think weaken Trump.
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The defeat will morally weaken him. And what he does when he's under attack is he goes on a counteroffensive. But I think he's not going to necessarily be able to implement that counteroffensive everywhere in the world.
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I think even though he loves the tariffs, the people of the United States are repudiating the tariff policy.
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Whether he listens to that and pays attention to that or continues will be dependent, in my mind, on the Republicans after their defeat starting to question
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his lame duck status and to what extent Trump is destroying the Republican Party in the process of maintaining his ego and his plans and his wars and his other activities.
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And I think because the House will be under Democratic control and perhaps the Senate, it opens the door for investigations into many different things that the Trump administration is doing from the corruption, the $2.2 billion that he earned in his first year in office, the insider trading, the ways in which his family is getting special privileges in certain contracts.
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All that's going to be investigated is going to weaken him, which I think will then weaken his ability to carry out the really strong economic and political policies towards Brazil or towards other countries.
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Trump is really leading a disastrous government and he's going to pay for it in the elections next week. And I think he's going to be really facing a much stronger opposition putting him in the defensive.
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And his big fear is another impeachment trial, which I don't think will happen.
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I think the Democrats don't realize that they don't have the votes in the Senate and so therefore they're not going to set it up for a third impeachment.
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But they're going to investigate him as if there were an impeachment. Noah, I've seen some political commentators, some congressional candidates using the Flavio Bolsonaro
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escape as a talking point to say, look Trump is harboring criminals in the U- ULS. Do you think that, uh, this is having...
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I- this is making any waves or, or this is just anecdotal? Uh, uh, i- is the Flavio Bolsonaro thing going to be any factor whatsoever, whether in constituencies in Florida, whether more broadly speaking?
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So, so immediately after the election many, many Democratic, uh, Congress people and some senators congratulated Lula, congratulated democracy, congratulated the Brazilian people, and have already started s- making statements about the fact that Bolsonaro's in the United States, um, questioning that.
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Whether there's gonna be enough momentum to organize some kind of investigation, some committee hearing, uh, remains to be seen. And I think the, the major
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challenge for people who are trying to push for that kind of investigations, the kind of hearing, a Senate or, or a House hearing around, around
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Brazil-US relations, the involvement of political forces within the United States in the Brazilian elections or, or, or harboring of,
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uh, criminals, these kinds of questions may be brought to some kind of congressional investigation. But I'm not sure that the, um...
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The list is so long of things that the American people are demanding that the Democratic Congress investigate, that it's, it's not clear to me whether there'll be enough space for an investigation around Brazil.
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It could happen. Um- Mm... I must say that I was very, um, um... I noticed r- uh, the fact that all of the news outlets are covering carefully the situation.
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Um, usually I have to tell everything about what's going on in Brazil to anyone I talk to because they don't have any background information, but people who have some interest in international affairs are reading about Brazil in the press, and the coverage is very good, uh, uh, in terms of being accurate and fair.
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Uh, and so there's a knowledge of the situation in Brazil. The analogy that Brazil was the country that defeated, uh, a extreme far-right government, uh, a candidate, i- is a, is a way in which people are...
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Our eyes are on what's happening in the country. There's more awareness about that.
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This analogy between Trumpism and Bolsonarismo has created an ability for people to penetrate stereotypes or lack of knowledge to get some sense of what's going on in the country.
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Uh, but the question I think will be whether the Democrats have enough, uh, bandspade, space to be able to, in addition to everything else, include, uh, Brazil in the agenda.
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And again, this will depend on to what extent, um, I think Trump is hard line, isn't transigent. I mean, keep in mind, the, the US... The Brazilian ambassador to the United States doesn't have a visa.
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She can't leave the country. Mm. If she leaves the country, she can't come back.
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And I'm assuming the Bolsonaros are gonna at least push Trump to push for the impeachment or supporting the impeachment of, uh, Alexandre de Moraes, which is their big, uh, nemesis, and the person they w- really want to see, uh, taken off the Supreme Court.
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And then, then the big question is what plays out among the different, uh, Supreme Court justices because five of them are linked in some way or are accused of being linked in some way to the, the Bunkermaster scandal.
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So whether, whether, um, this issue can be played on with Bolsonaro supporters in the United States or whether, uh, he becomes a, a marginal figure sitting out in exile like these former monarchs who, you know, whose countries get over- th- the- their countries overthrow the monarchy and they're living in exile somewhere in Monaco or wherever, becoming increasingly ineffective or unimportant.
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That we have to see. Um, and again, it depends on the dynamic after, uh, the Trump defeats and, and how he decides he's gonna respond, um, to that defeat.
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And to the extent to which Republicans start chipping away at their, their unconditional support of him because they've realized that they've led them down a path of, of defeat.
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I mean, you know, when you're in power, you don't like- No, I mean, a- a- and James, I'm sorry, but, uh, just, uh, to, to circle back to Flavio Bolsonaro because, uh, one thing, uh, that I find interesting is that all their chips are, uh, betting on a single outcome, that, uh, a Republican, and in their case preferably Rubio, will win the election to succeed Trump.
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Because Trump, uh, can no longer run for another term. Uh, he may try, so either Trump or Rubio, let's state like this. Uh, but if the Democrats win the presidency, uh, uh, uh,
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I mean, what happens to the Bolsonaros' legal standing in the US?
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Because the fact that they have done many of their financial dealings, uh, uh, through, uh, US-based funds also means that if they are fined, found, uh, guilty of money laundering, of tax evasion and whatever, uh, then they have become, um, they, they have committed crimes in the US as well.
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And, uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but tax evasion, uh, money laundering, those are federal offenses, I would assume. Right.
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And also if they've lied on any documentation that they're gonna fill out now to justify the humanitarian visa. That, that can be the grounds.
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I mean, if you lo- You know, one of the most, um, progressive members of Congress, I- uh, Omar, is being investigated and they're gonna try, try to purge her from Congress because of something her father might have written on an immigration form when she was eight years old to come to the United States.
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So you can do that, and the United States has no problem, uh, in after World War II, uh, bringing n- former Nazis and key figure into the United States, and even inter- integ- integrating some of them into the, into the space, uh, race, uh, in the, in the '50s.
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So that's not a problem, uh, but it can cause a political problem if the Justice Department in 1930... in 2030 is controlled by, uh, the Democrats, the possibility of these kinds of investigations, uh, about people.
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And I, you know, Flavio can, I guess he can go to Italy, uh, or he can go to Argentina- And he might decide to do that.
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He might decide it's not safe to be in the United States because of the possibility of being extradited at some point or found guilty of, of lying under a sworn, uh, affidavit. Um, but he has other options, I think.
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But I think the question is the weakness of that.
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And to the extent that Trump will always show or pretend he's strong and lie about all the things that are happening- But, but, but that's my point, and I'm sorry, James, but, uh, uh, US law, uh,
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has a lot of extra territoriality. And the fact that, uh, they, uh, if they are found guilty, they may be found, uh, liable for, uh, offenses in the US.
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I mean, the US does- is not shy of picking up people and arresting them in other, uh, jurisdictions. They have done that in Switzerland, for instance. No, I mean, the, the pr- the problem, uh, is, is the following.
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If the Democrats win in '30, which is a big if at this point, who knows, um, they- they're gonna have, they're gonna have a long list of things that they're gonna try to do to fix the mess that, th- that, the destruction that, that Trump has had, including within the Justice Department, and also showing clearly that they're not carrying out vindictive behavior, that they're carrying out, uh, actions.
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So if Flavio has found to have been violated US law, they certainly, he certainly could be prosecuted. He also can understand that's happening and go to Italy or go, uh, or, or go to Argentina. So, and
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the Democrats are gonna have so much to do to fix the mess that Tr- that Trump has had, that I don't know to what extent, um, Brazil will be, how f- how high or low on the, on the, on the l- the to-do list, uh, Brazil will be in that regard.
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And I think there's gonna be a real strong push to try to establish a series of norms, of procedures that are correct, uh, and try to avoid the instrumentalization of the Justice Department in the United States for political ends.
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So we'll see. I mean, it is a possibility, but again, we're talking about four years from now. So many things could happen in these next four years. The Congress could vote a amnesty of Flavio Bolsonaro.
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He could come back to Brazil, no charges against anything- Yeah... if they want to. And, you know, I think that the US government is not gonna be interested in, uh, uh, under Trump, in, in prosecuting him.
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If they can let him escape the country or let him, you know, go somewhere else, that might be the solution. You can, you know... It's, it's better that you go to Ar- to Argentina.
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It's better that you go to Italy because if not, we might have to do something, uh, uh, you know, against you because of the, the, the crimes that you may have committed or have been charged with having committed.
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Well, James, I think, uh, with that we can wrap up, and, uh, this ha- this is the last podcast under this partnership that The Brazilian Report and the Brazil Office Alliance have celebrated, if I'm,
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if I recall correctly, in February, and that we launched in March. And I have to say, this nine months have been a blast.
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Uh, I really enjoy our weekly conversations, the work we have done covering this election together, the two live broadcasts that, uh, have b- drawn more than 20 to 25,000 people, which, uh, I mean, sure, it's not CNN numbers, but we s- are a very, very niche publication, writing only about Brazil, only in English.
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So, uh, it's been a huge success. We're, we have been able to talk to people from foreign governments, diplomatic corps, uh, investors, um, think tanks, and whatnot.
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Uh, and I mean, I, I just want to extend, um, our gratitude to the Brazil Office Alliance and to the partnership and the work we have done together, uh, this past month, and to say that we would, uh, love to, to discuss other possibilities of us working together because, uh, like y- you have said, uh, uh, during this episode, uh,
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the, the Brazil-US, uh, relations and implications in one, i- in each other's, um, political, uh, uh, realities are, are not going anywhere. [laughs] No, and I...
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Listen, we really enjoy this collaboration with The Brazilian Report, which I've been reading for years. This is an excellent publication.
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If people are interested in receiving the newsletter of The Washington Brazil Office, just go to braziloffice.org and, uh, you can find, uh, our newsletter, which you can receive on a weekly basis, uh, that we publish, uh, for free.
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Uh, and, uh, I wanna just finally finish by saying, uh, I've always argued that Brazilian social movements and the energy that was unleashed beginning in the process f- to fight for democratization of the country during the dictatorship and then for consolidating that democracy after the constituent assembly, uh, and the demands for democratic participation were shown again to be the factor in the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and reflects a combative spirit among, uh, large sectors of the Brazilian population that, uh, helped, uh, reaffirm that Brazil is a strong, leading democratic institution in Latin America, strong economy, and has a- amazing possibilities for our future.
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And we all need to do everything possible to help consolidate democracy in the country and help lead it towards, uh, uh, a positive future that really r- ends up expanding social justice, economic justice, uh, for the, for the people of the country.
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James, thank you again. And for everyone who wants to follow The Brazilian Report, you can go to brazilian.report for more. James, have a great one. Tchau, tchau.
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[upbeat music] Hello, and welcome to Explaining Brazil, a podcast by the Brazilian Report. My name is Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of the Brazilian Report.
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And as it has always been the case, uh, this year in this electoral season, I'm here joined by James Green of Brown University and of the Brazil Office Alliance. James, how are you?
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So this is our first time meeting after, uh, our, our four hours long, um, election day live broadcast. What a crazy day that was, ni- night that was. Um, how am I doing? I'm in New York. I jumped a plane yesterday.
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I was trying to see if I could get, catch a ride with some guy who was leaving through Argentina to Ecuador to Miami, but then we didn't make the connection, so I didn't get that ride. I had to go on a Delta flight.
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But I'm in New York now for a while to vote in the, uh, US elections, and I'm gonna go back to Brazil to celebrate my birthday in November. But I'm fine.
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So you, you, you hinted, uh, of this, and, uh, it seems we laughed, uh, each other off. Um, there, there is a lot of catching up to do. As expected, uh, Flavio Bolsonaro did not acknowledge the results.
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He says that, uh, they were unacceptable, that because of the two-hour extension, which his campaign also requested, uh, the, the election was shameful. Uh, and then also as
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slightly expected, uh, he fled the country. Uh, so there's a lot to unpack here. Uh,
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on the next day after the election, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued a ruling saying, ordering Flavio Bolsonaro to surrender his passports, and say that he could not leave the country.
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He had 24 hours to comply, and within those 24 hours, he escaped. Now, we, we still don't know exactly through which route.
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Officially, uh, the Argentine government says he crossed the Tancredo Neves International Bridge in Foz do Iguaçu, from where, uh, he took a plane to Ecuador and then Miami.
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There are other suspicions that he might have flown from, uh, Brasilia to, uh, the, the outskirts of Buenos Aires. Then from there, uh, he would have gone to, uh, Puerto Iguazú, uh, which is the Argentine side of the,
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of the Iguazu, uh, Falls. Um, now, uh, one thing seems clear,
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he had the help of the Argentine government, and he had at least the acquiescence of Washington because he was given, uh, a humanitarian stay permit as soon as he landed.
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Um, now, it, it, it is still uncertain whether this was just an escape with, uh, let's say, the benevolent eyes of Washington and Buenos Aires, whether this was an extraction,
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in which case it would be a far bigger diplomatic problem between Brazil, Argentina, and Brazil and the US.
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Yeah, and I mean, I think, um, the idea for the Trump administration to let him come to the United States is the, the option of creating a government in exile, um, which is not gonna happen because, uh, his, Flavio himself realized that and changed the statement that he issued three times, and eventually took off, um, the title of the exiled pr- the elected president of Brazil to the leader of the opposition of Brazil.
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Uh, and I think, you know, Trump wants to keep him in his back pocket in the United States so that if he needs to mobilize hi- his, his support, uh, and for his campaign against Brazil, he can do that.
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Um, but it seems that Trump realizes that this, this immediate battle has been lost, and so therefore, there's not gonna be an attempt to, uh, legitimize Flavio as the legitim- the president elect of the country and, and there'll be a de facto recognizing of, of, of the election results.
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Um, and then we'll see what the next step is for the Trump administration. Uh, Flavio has not been defeated in this regard. I think he's, he's trying to,
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and I imagine he and his brother will be trying, and allies will be trying to guarantee their space within the Trump administration. But after the
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historic defeat of the Democra- of the Republicans on Tuesday of next week, I think, uh, Flavio's gonna be even in a more difficult position because Trump is gonna be scrambling to regain, uh, legitimacy and support, and I don't think an incursion in Brazil will be, uh, a high priority for him at that point.
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Right. I mean, the, uh, you're mentioning the midterms, which are due on November the 3rd, but...
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And yes, polls have, uh, favored the Democrats, but polls have favored the Democrats in the past, so this is gonna be that, uh- I, I, I, I would, I could, I would bet a million dollars if I had a million dollars in the bank that the Democrats will win control of the House.
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I won't bet on the Senate because it's still a toss-up. That, that, that, that's a, that's- But it's still possible. If they're gonna win the House, there's no way they're not.
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Even if Trump tries to implement a, a campaign of, of, uh, of, uh, controlling or to voter suppression or challenging electoral results, the, uh, apparatus that's being developed to legal challenges against any of the challenges of Trump are, are incredibly strong, and I think, uh, he will fail at this effort as well, just as, uh, attempts prior to the elections have largely failed.
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The courts have thrown out many of his complaints about different elections and electoral processes.
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But, you know, anything can happen in elections, and I'm not, I'm not assuring that the, the Democrats will win the Hou- or the Senate, but they definitely will win the House. There's no way they won't win the House
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Now, uh, you mentioned also the letter that was published by Flávio Bolsonaro the day that he landed in Miami, uh, in which, yes, the first draft said that he was the true president-elect of Brazil.
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Uh, then he changed to the leader of Brazil.
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And, uh, [laughs] I remember, uh, it may be a little bit harsh, but it reminded me a lot of a scene from The Office when someone tells Michael Scott, "You should declare bankruptcy," then he storms, uh, out of his office and he said, "I declare bankruptcy."
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And I mean, uh, uh, uh, uh, Flávio did a little bit like that because while he was declaring himself the true president-elect, his allies were recognizing the elections here, they were projecting a future already in the opposition.
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Uh, so it bec- it becomes really, um, uh, uh, uncertain where the Bolsonaros stand, uh, in this political landscape at the moment. I, I'm in no rush to write their obituaries because we have- No...
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people have done that in the past, and I think the Brazilian right has proven, uh, time and again that it is willing to flirt with putschism i- i- if it feels that that can bring, uh, short-term electoral gains.
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And we have seen, for instance, uh, Senate President, uh, Davi Alcolumbre, who was maybe walking like a dead man walking until last week. He bought Lula in the dip.
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Uh, Lula got elected, then he became again this, uh, one of the favorites to, uh, winning a s- a new term as Senate president. He's already
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saying that, "Well, uh, maybe we could pass amnesty for Jair Bolsonaro and for people who were involved in the January 8th, 2023 insurrection." Uh, so th- th- there you go.
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I, I mean, it's still too early to, to, to, to, to know, uh, what will be the state of Bolsonarism.
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But some movements are interesting to see because right after, uh, the election, I think that, uh, in the same way that we discussed after the first round, Brasília already accommodating, uh, to a projected Flávio Bolsonaro presidency.
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Now that he's out of office, the, the opposite movement is happening.
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I think the order for him to surrender his passports, while, uh, totally legitimate from the legal standpoint, would not have come had he won the election.
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So there is a political element to this kind of procedures involving people this high up.
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Um, we're also seeing that Congress, uh, has started talks about changing the electoral system and moving from Brazil's open list proportional system to, uh, a big system similar to Germany, uh, to the one that Germany uses, uh, or even, uh, uh, something in between.
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Uh, the idea being to, um, reduce the power of influencers as these vote magnets that inf- artificially inflate, uh, some parties' congressional benches.
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You know, I think Lula has a lot of challenges ahead of him, and one of the big challenges now is gonna be to, to maintain his coalition, and he's gonna have to appoint very different people, and to bring in to the coalition enough support that he can get certain things passed, uh, through the Congress.
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And that means making the deals with the Centrão, with the PSD and other parties that, um, you know, are really sitting out looking to see who's gonna win and then jump to that side, uh, to get a, a political appointment and so to maintain a political control.
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Uh, and I think he has to be very smart about that because the, the right is clearly saying that they wanna, uh, first impeach members of the Supreme Court, uh, Alexandre de Moraes, but it's clearly implicit that they would love to find the pretext to be able to try to im- impeach Lula.
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Uh, and so his alleged skills at being a brilliant conciliator and finding ways to make deals, uh, needs to be at play right now.
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On the other hand, uh, this could result in, um, a weakening of some of his support, uh, if he does come to some agreement around, uh, an amnesty of some kind for, for, uh, for Jair Bolsonaro.
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And the other problem is that the investigations against, uh, Flávio now will- are gonna proceed, I'm assuming, unless, again, there's some big agreement within, uh, the Supreme Court that let's just forget everyone's accusations.
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I don't think that's gonna happen.
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People are making that speculation there'll be some big a- agreement among all the parties, and everyone will just kind of ignore all the, uh, the implications of the involvement on the Banco Mas.
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So I, I just think that it's a scandal that really will continue to, uh, explode. Flávio will be one of the main, uh,
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culprits in this, in this situation, but I think other, other people will be brought ch- will be at least under scrutiny and p- possibly even, uh, made ch- charged with, with crimes or improprieties.
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So, um, I think it's open, and I think you're right. We should not declare, uh, that the Bolsonarist, uh, movement is dead. On the contrary, it, it still represents a block of about 30% of the, of the people in Brazil.
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And those people who lost, who are adamant Bolsonaro supporters, are gonna buy the narrative that the elections were stolen, that the Northeast cheats, and they all depend on Bolsa Familia, and Lula is an opportunist and is a thief, et cetera, et cetera.
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All that is gonna remain.
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And already, uh, Nicolas Feder and other people are, are repeating that, that narrative to consolidate it in people's minds, so that's the script for the next four years about why the current government is illegitimate, and therefore why it's appropriate to support efforts to impeach President Lula.
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Which I think will be... I don't know if it'll be attempted, but it's certainly being considered and will be planned. Whether it can be actually carried out is another question
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Yeah, I mean, uh, there will be no shortages of impeachment requests.
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Those every single president in Brazil have faced by the hundreds, but the power to, uh, turn them into, uh, uh, an impeachment trial lies in the hands of one person and one person only, which is the House speaker.
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Uh, now I, I think that, uh, while, um, both of us agree on the fact that, uh, we should never, uh, uh,
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write a political force's obituary before everything is said and done, and Bolsonarismo has proven to have more lives than a cat, um, this, this, uh, situation gives the Brazilian right a rare opportunity to break from Bolsonarismo because the, the family has never been this weak.
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You have the patriarch under house arrest and in, a- and, uh, uh, prevented from making any political speech. You have the two, uh, two of the three eldest sons abroad.
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The two remaining sons that have elected, uh, offices, they are not presidential material. Uh, they are not charismatic. Uh, they, they would not cut as, uh...
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I mean, if Flavio was already a downgrade in terms of charisma from Jair, now that would be an even bigger cliff that, uh, uh, they would have to, to fall.
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Uh, the only person with the online presence, the charisma, and the name would be Michelle Bolsonaro, but she kind of has her own thing going.
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Uh, on election night when everybody was posting sad pictures and asking for the system to be, um, broken with, uh, she was posting happy faces saying that, uh, she was glad that, uh, her ally, Celina Leão, won the Brasília governorship, that she and her ally, Bia Kicis, won both seats, uh, Senate seats up for grabs in Brasília.
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So she's playing her own game. Uh- She's playing, yeah... and, and, and again, th- having this opportunity does not mean the right will break with the Bolsonaros. I'm just saying that there is an opportunity.
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No, but I mean, I think the, the other example that one needs to give is Tar- Tarcisio de Freitas, b- because
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he was at the election night, uh, uh, party of, of, uh, Flavio, next to him, supporting him on f- uh, uh, participating in all of the m- uh, the campaign events possible.
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And, uh, he's clearly now setting himself up as the, the leading candidate for the t- uh, 2030 elections. Now, four years is a long time in Brazilian history for many things to happen.
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I mean, one could even imagine a, a, a, a slate of Tarcisio and Michelle, president and vice president, uh, in, in 2- 2030, which would be a very, very powerful, uh, block to defeat at this moment. But
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we're four years away from '30, and so I think a lot of things could happen between now and then. But you're right, I, I think, uh, the family i- itself is i- in crisis. It's in, in a defensive position right now.
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And I think, uh, even though, uh, the Trump administration is keeping Flavio in its, this back pocket, and Flavio does not want to return to Brazil because he doesn't want to be, uh, put in jail. Uh, uh, so I think
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he's there, he's there if the political situation requires him to come back in some way to, to, for some reason, uh, to claim the mantle of the leadership, but I think he is, as you, as you say, relatively weakened right now.
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Now, that 30% of the population that supports the far right, that has supported the far right historically, is still there supporting the far right.
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They're not gonna go away, and they're going to repeat all of the narratives that are being constructed right now about fraudulent elections and the corruption of Lula, et cetera, et cetera.
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Uh, but, um, they lost, and so they're gonna have to face that reality even though they did win in the Congress, and we, we have to understand that that's gonna make them a very strong force, uh, in the, in the, in the coming years.
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Now, uh, talking about 2030, and I think, uh- Already? I'll tr- Yeah, exactly. That was, that was what I was going to say, that, uh, as a journalist, we always love to put the, the cart, uh, in front of the,
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um- The horse... o- of the horse. Uh, so let, let, let's talk a little bit because now, uh, Lula will have... We'll talk about both sides of the, of the aisle.
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Lula will have four years to manufacture a successor in circumstances that are far more challenging than, uh, the ones he had in '26, uh, in 2006, I'm sorry. In 2006, the two
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number two guys he had, José Dirceu and Antonio Palocci, fell to corruption scandals. Um, then he pulled, uh, Dilma Rousseff out of nowhere. Uh, she was running for- Yeah, she was the Minister of Mines and Energy.
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She wasn't out of nowhere. No, no, but out of nowhere politically speaking- Okay... because she, she, she had not, uh, been elected, not even to class representative before running for president [laughs].
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So politically speaking- She, she did get elected to the leadership of the armed struggle organization she was a part of, but that was a small group of people who elected her to that position- [laughs]...
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for a period of time. She was the leadership of the region of São Paulo of one of the armed struggle organizations. So she has been elected, let's be fair. Okay, fair enough. But, uh,
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but, uh, but then, uh, the results were terrible, uh, to put it plainly. Yeah. Uh, her administration was, uh, headed a, a disastrous political e- economic policy.
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Uh, she was the face of the 20, uh, 15 crisis. And then, uh-
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And still, the, the, the economic crisis that happened during the Dilma Rousseff, uh, years are still part of the reason why so many people are skeptical about the Workers' Party.
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Uh, now, uh, Lula tried with Fernando Haddad, uh, a man who is brilliant, who has, um, really a lot of, uh...
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He, he, he, he ma- he had a lot of accomplishments as education minister, as São Paulo's mayor, and as finance minister. But I mean, I would say he was not a good candidate.
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He's not someone who Brazilians can relate with. Uh, now we are already seeing two candidates pop, uh, Senator Camilo Santana, the former governor of Ceará, and, uh, Piauí governor, uh, Rafael Fonteles. Um,
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how, how do you see these options? Do you think that Geraldo Alckmin could be someone that the left could rally around? No. So there's two things.
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First of all, I don't think the PT will want to, there to be a candidate who's not a member of the PT as the presidential candidate. Fair enough, yeah. And that's really important for many reasons.
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Well, among them is the funding that goes through, the government funding that goes through the political party that has, that has a p- presidential candidate. So I think that's one consideration.
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It's so, it's so far away. I mean, I think to speculate what's gonna happen on the left in terms of candidates, it's just so distant.
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We can say that that's a possibility with Tarcísio because he's made it explicit, and he got reelected to the governor of the state of São Paulo, and that's a very important position.
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He can do a lot of things in the next four years to claim that he's been a brilliant governor, and therefore he should be the next president of the country.
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Uh, and so I think that is not unfair to speculate of his primacy in this moment, uh, for the election. The, uh, on the other side, I think it's so im- it's so premature. So many things could happen.
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We have to see- It is... who's qualified and stuff like- But at the same time, the clock is ticking because Lula has spent, what, 40 years, uh- Right...
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killing every attempt of a new leader emerging within his camp, and now he has a timetable. He has to have someone in line to defend his legacy- I, I'm not sure that he knows-... in four years...
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I don't think that's the way Lula... I'm, I don't know if this for a fact. I'm not a personal friend of Lula. I haven't been in the inner circles.
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I think he's gonna wait to see all the dynamics of what's gonna happen in composing the government, who's gonna be in what position, and that, that depends also.
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And some of the people you're mentioning could be appointed to a government position, and then be a disastrous minister, and then disappear. I'm assuming that he is thinking of options and possibilities now.
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Um, and, but I think it's very immature to think, to see that he's anointed an, uh, uh, an heir. I think he's gonna see how different people perform in the next period of time, and he always demands loyalty.
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So he's gonna be wanting to have people close to him that he can trust to carry on his legacy.
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Um, and it's, I, I, I know we can, we can think of o- other people as well and talk about them as possible, but I think it really depends on the first year of the governance, the, the composition of the first government that he sets up, and the first year of performance.
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That's gonna make the big, big, uh, difference about who emerges as the leading candidates.
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And, and before that, you know, we can speculate on other names as well, but I think it's, um, it's, it's fun to do, but I'm not sure it has a much long-term, uh, meaning.
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And not to dis- diminish your, uh, attempts to do that, but I, I think it's really, it's way too early to understand how that's gonna play out.
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No, I, I understand, but- We have to get through the transition government at least and figure out who's gonna be the new ministers and how Lula has managed to balance the different forces, how he's brought in the, the Centrão, in what way and what capacity, what kind of deals he makes, who ends up running the House and the Senate.
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These are factors that are gonna influence the tone of his government as well. No, absolutely.
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But one thing that is interesting is that right after, uh, the electoral win, uh, many people in the left start pumping up the name of Rafael Fonteles to the finance ministry, which for me, uh, calls my attention in many ways because finance ministry is the, it- it's usually the type of job that kills one's presidential aspirations.
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The only person, uh, for whom that was a stepping stone was Fernando Henrique Cardoso in very, very unique circumstances because he was the father of the Real, the currency, and the economic plan that came with, that killed hyperinflation in Brazil.
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We don't have hyperinflation, so we don't have that, uh, massive, uh, upside for someone to be... Because the thing is, being the finance minister, uh, you, you have to say no to a lot of people.
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You have to make, uh, many people unhappy along the ways. A- and I mean, and this government already knows that some type of austerity- Exactly... reform will be necessary.
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So there's gonna be a balance between the social programs that Lula's promised and, uh, consolidating of the ones that already exist and exactly this, this, this pressure to, to cut the budget.
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And that's gonna, I think that would be a, the death toll- knoll for any minister of, of, of, of, of finance or Yeah... a Fazenda. So I think, again, I think it's, we just have to wait and see a little bit more.
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We also have to see to what extent Trump decides to, uh, attack the country, to, uh, try to disrupt it economically, or whether he kind of gives up on that.
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To what extent Itamaraty manages to negotiate some deals on certain of the trade questions. To what extent, uh, Trump feels d- on the defensive, uh, after his debacle, uh, next Tuesday.
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These are all the factors that will play into how this will, will end up, um, happening at the end of the day. And I think it's, again, it's a little too early to speculate on this.
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Um, I think we need to see some new faces coming to the foreground of leading this government and seeing how they do to determine whether there's, among them, one who can actually mobilize the population in a way to, to stand up against Tarcísio.
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That'll be a ve- it's gonna be a formidable- Uh, opponent to anyone. And again, in a year, he could be fallen. Who could, who could, who knows what could happen in this regard?
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Um, some scandal in Sao Paulo could weaken him and therefore make him an eligible candidate as well. Now, you mentioned the U.S., and I think we should circle back to that because
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I think it's fascinating to try to assess how influential the Bolsonaros are in Washington. And I think that they clearly have the ears of many people within the State Department.
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To what extent that translates into real action, I think it's debatable. For instance, the tariffs thing. Brazil was not the only one to have tariffs against. Certainly, Brazil has many steep ones, but
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I would say that Trump does believe in tariffs. That is the linchpin of his trade policy. So he rationalized it by saying that, oh, we're putting tariffs because they are persecuting Bolsonaro.
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But my understanding is if Bolsonaro hadn't been prosecuted, Trump would find another reason to slap tariffs on Brazil.
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In the same way that the two-hour extension on Sunday was not the reason why Flavio Bolsonaro did not accept the results. If the polls had closed 5 p.m. sharp, he would have found another reason for that.
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The PCC and Comando Vermelho terrorist label, that is also part of the U.S. foreign policy doctrine in this administration.
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And we also have to factor in that a week from now, we might be talking about a whole new dynamic in Washington, because like you alluded to, the Democrats are projected to flip the House and may even flip the Senate.
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So can you talk a little bit to people who are listening and watching this? What is the power of the U.S. Congress in foreign policy? Because Congress in the U.S.
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has way more of a say in regards to foreign policy than it has in Brazil, for instance.
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So the reason that Congress in the United States has this power is because of the Nixon administration, the corruption around the Watergate scandal in which the Republicans tried to infiltrate the Democratic Party and eliminate their enemies.
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And this backfired. And so Nixon was pushed out of office. And in 1974, there was a
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tsunami election in which the Democrats won control of the House and the Senate by a vast majority and implemented a series of reforms, including the War Powers Act, which demanded that the Congress be involved in declaring war.
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And so precisely this kind of issue will be, I think, taking a lot of Trump's concern. It's very likely, or at least there's speculation that there will be another incursion into Iran after the midterm elections.
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Bibi Netanyahu won a bloc of votes, but he doesn't have enough members of the Knesset, the parliament, to, at this moment, form a government. And it's speculated already in Israel that it's likely that he will try to
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convince Trump for another attack against Iran. And again, it's not going to solve Trump's problem.
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He's going to have severe economic problems because of the high gas prices as a result of the ongoing war and the inability to resolve this war. And so these are factors which I think weaken Trump.
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The defeat will morally weaken him. And what he does when he's under attack is he goes on a counteroffensive. But I think he's not going to necessarily be able to implement that counteroffensive everywhere in the world.
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I think even though he loves the tariffs, the people of the United States are repudiating the tariff policy.
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Whether he listens to that and pays attention to that or continues will be dependent, in my mind, on the Republicans after their defeat starting to question
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his lame duck status and to what extent Trump is destroying the Republican Party in the process of maintaining his ego and his plans and his wars and his other activities.
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And I think because the House will be under Democratic control and perhaps the Senate, it opens the door for investigations into many different things that the Trump administration is doing from the corruption, the $2.2 billion that he earned in his first year in office, the insider trading, the ways in which his family is getting special privileges in certain contracts.
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All that's going to be investigated is going to weaken him, which I think will then weaken his ability to carry out the really strong economic and political policies towards Brazil or towards other countries.
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Trump is really leading a disastrous government and he's going to pay for it in the elections next week. And I think he's going to be really facing a much stronger opposition putting him in the defensive.
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And his big fear is another impeachment trial, which I don't think will happen.
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I think the Democrats don't realize that they don't have the votes in the Senate and so therefore they're not going to set it up for a third impeachment.
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But they're going to investigate him as if there were an impeachment. Noah, I've seen some political commentators, some congressional candidates using the Flavio Bolsonaro
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escape as a talking point to say, look Trump is harboring criminals in the U- ULS. Do you think that, uh, this is having...
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I- this is making any waves or, or this is just anecdotal? Uh, uh, i- is the Flavio Bolsonaro thing going to be any factor whatsoever, whether in constituencies in Florida, whether more broadly speaking?
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So, so immediately after the election many, many Democratic, uh, Congress people and some senators congratulated Lula, congratulated democracy, congratulated the Brazilian people, and have already started s- making statements about the fact that Bolsonaro's in the United States, um, questioning that.
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Whether there's gonna be enough momentum to organize some kind of investigation, some committee hearing, uh, remains to be seen. And I think the, the major
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challenge for people who are trying to push for that kind of investigations, the kind of hearing, a Senate or, or a House hearing around, around
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Brazil-US relations, the involvement of political forces within the United States in the Brazilian elections or, or, or harboring of,
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uh, criminals, these kinds of questions may be brought to some kind of congressional investigation. But I'm not sure that the, um...
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The list is so long of things that the American people are demanding that the Democratic Congress investigate, that it's, it's not clear to me whether there'll be enough space for an investigation around Brazil.
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It could happen. Um- Mm... I must say that I was very, um, um... I noticed r- uh, the fact that all of the news outlets are covering carefully the situation.
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Um, usually I have to tell everything about what's going on in Brazil to anyone I talk to because they don't have any background information, but people who have some interest in international affairs are reading about Brazil in the press, and the coverage is very good, uh, uh, in terms of being accurate and fair.
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Uh, and so there's a knowledge of the situation in Brazil. The analogy that Brazil was the country that defeated, uh, a extreme far-right government, uh, a candidate, i- is a, is a way in which people are...
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Our eyes are on what's happening in the country. There's more awareness about that.
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This analogy between Trumpism and Bolsonarismo has created an ability for people to penetrate stereotypes or lack of knowledge to get some sense of what's going on in the country.
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Uh, but the question I think will be whether the Democrats have enough, uh, bandspade, space to be able to, in addition to everything else, include, uh, Brazil in the agenda.
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And again, this will depend on to what extent, um, I think Trump is hard line, isn't transigent. I mean, keep in mind, the, the US... The Brazilian ambassador to the United States doesn't have a visa.
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She can't leave the country. Mm. If she leaves the country, she can't come back.
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And I'm assuming the Bolsonaros are gonna at least push Trump to push for the impeachment or supporting the impeachment of, uh, Alexandre de Moraes, which is their big, uh, nemesis, and the person they w- really want to see, uh, taken off the Supreme Court.
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And then, then the big question is what plays out among the different, uh, Supreme Court justices because five of them are linked in some way or are accused of being linked in some way to the, the Bunkermaster scandal.
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So whether, whether, um, this issue can be played on with Bolsonaro supporters in the United States or whether, uh, he becomes a, a marginal figure sitting out in exile like these former monarchs who, you know, whose countries get over- th- the- their countries overthrow the monarchy and they're living in exile somewhere in Monaco or wherever, becoming increasingly ineffective or unimportant.
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That we have to see. Um, and again, it depends on the dynamic after, uh, the Trump defeats and, and how he decides he's gonna respond, um, to that defeat.
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And to the extent to which Republicans start chipping away at their, their unconditional support of him because they've realized that they've led them down a path of, of defeat.
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I mean, you know, when you're in power, you don't like- No, I mean, a- a- and James, I'm sorry, but, uh, just, uh, to, to circle back to Flavio Bolsonaro because, uh, one thing, uh, that I find interesting is that all their chips are, uh, betting on a single outcome, that, uh, a Republican, and in their case preferably Rubio, will win the election to succeed Trump.
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Because Trump, uh, can no longer run for another term. Uh, he may try, so either Trump or Rubio, let's state like this. Uh, but if the Democrats win the presidency, uh, uh, uh,
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I mean, what happens to the Bolsonaros' legal standing in the US?
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Because the fact that they have done many of their financial dealings, uh, uh, through, uh, US-based funds also means that if they are fined, found, uh, guilty of money laundering, of tax evasion and whatever, uh, then they have become, um, they, they have committed crimes in the US as well.
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And, uh, correct me if I'm wrong, but tax evasion, uh, money laundering, those are federal offenses, I would assume. Right.
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And also if they've lied on any documentation that they're gonna fill out now to justify the humanitarian visa. That, that can be the grounds.
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I mean, if you lo- You know, one of the most, um, progressive members of Congress, I- uh, Omar, is being investigated and they're gonna try, try to purge her from Congress because of something her father might have written on an immigration form when she was eight years old to come to the United States.
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So you can do that, and the United States has no problem, uh, in after World War II, uh, bringing n- former Nazis and key figure into the United States, and even inter- integ- integrating some of them into the, into the space, uh, race, uh, in the, in the '50s.
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So that's not a problem, uh, but it can cause a political problem if the Justice Department in 1930... in 2030 is controlled by, uh, the Democrats, the possibility of these kinds of investigations, uh, about people.
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And I, you know, Flavio can, I guess he can go to Italy, uh, or he can go to Argentina- And he might decide to do that.
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He might decide it's not safe to be in the United States because of the possibility of being extradited at some point or found guilty of, of lying under a sworn, uh, affidavit. Um, but he has other options, I think.
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But I think the question is the weakness of that.
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And to the extent that Trump will always show or pretend he's strong and lie about all the things that are happening- But, but, but that's my point, and I'm sorry, James, but, uh, uh, US law, uh,
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has a lot of extra territoriality. And the fact that, uh, they, uh, if they are found guilty, they may be found, uh, liable for, uh, offenses in the US.
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I mean, the US does- is not shy of picking up people and arresting them in other, uh, jurisdictions. They have done that in Switzerland, for instance. No, I mean, the, the pr- the problem, uh, is, is the following.
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If the Democrats win in '30, which is a big if at this point, who knows, um, they- they're gonna have, they're gonna have a long list of things that they're gonna try to do to fix the mess that, th- that, the destruction that, that Trump has had, including within the Justice Department, and also showing clearly that they're not carrying out vindictive behavior, that they're carrying out, uh, actions.
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So if Flavio has found to have been violated US law, they certainly, he certainly could be prosecuted. He also can understand that's happening and go to Italy or go, uh, or, or go to Argentina. So, and
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the Democrats are gonna have so much to do to fix the mess that Tr- that Trump has had, that I don't know to what extent, um, Brazil will be, how f- how high or low on the, on the, on the l- the to-do list, uh, Brazil will be in that regard.
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And I think there's gonna be a real strong push to try to establish a series of norms, of procedures that are correct, uh, and try to avoid the instrumentalization of the Justice Department in the United States for political ends.
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So we'll see. I mean, it is a possibility, but again, we're talking about four years from now. So many things could happen in these next four years. The Congress could vote a amnesty of Flavio Bolsonaro.
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He could come back to Brazil, no charges against anything- Yeah... if they want to. And, you know, I think that the US government is not gonna be interested in, uh, uh, under Trump, in, in prosecuting him.
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If they can let him escape the country or let him, you know, go somewhere else, that might be the solution. You can, you know... It's, it's better that you go to Ar- to Argentina.
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It's better that you go to Italy because if not, we might have to do something, uh, uh, you know, against you because of the, the, the crimes that you may have committed or have been charged with having committed.
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Well, James, I think, uh, with that we can wrap up, and, uh, this ha- this is the last podcast under this partnership that The Brazilian Report and the Brazil Office Alliance have celebrated, if I'm,
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if I recall correctly, in February, and that we launched in March. And I have to say, this nine months have been a blast.
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Uh, I really enjoy our weekly conversations, the work we have done covering this election together, the two live broadcasts that, uh, have b- drawn more than 20 to 25,000 people, which, uh, I mean, sure, it's not CNN numbers, but we s- are a very, very niche publication, writing only about Brazil, only in English.
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So, uh, it's been a huge success. We're, we have been able to talk to people from foreign governments, diplomatic corps, uh, investors, um, think tanks, and whatnot.
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Uh, and I mean, I, I just want to extend, um, our gratitude to the Brazil Office Alliance and to the partnership and the work we have done together, uh, this past month, and to say that we would, uh, love to, to discuss other possibilities of us working together because, uh, like y- you have said, uh, uh, during this episode, uh,
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the, the Brazil-US, uh, relations and implications in one, i- in each other's, um, political, uh, uh, realities are, are not going anywhere. [laughs] No, and I...
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Listen, we really enjoy this collaboration with The Brazilian Report, which I've been reading for years. This is an excellent publication.
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If people are interested in receiving the newsletter of The Washington Brazil Office, just go to braziloffice.org and, uh, you can find, uh, our newsletter, which you can receive on a weekly basis, uh, that we publish, uh, for free.
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Uh, and, uh, I wanna just finally finish by saying, uh, I've always argued that Brazilian social movements and the energy that was unleashed beginning in the process f- to fight for democratization of the country during the dictatorship and then for consolidating that democracy after the constituent assembly, uh, and the demands for democratic participation were shown again to be the factor in the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and reflects a combative spirit among, uh, large sectors of the Brazilian population that, uh, helped, uh, reaffirm that Brazil is a strong, leading democratic institution in Latin America, strong economy, and has a- amazing possibilities for our future.
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And we all need to do everything possible to help consolidate democracy in the country and help lead it towards, uh, uh, a positive future that really r- ends up expanding social justice, economic justice, uh, for the, for the people of the country.
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James, thank you again. And for everyone who wants to follow The Brazilian Report, you can go to brazilian.report for more. James, have a great one. Tchau, tchau.
