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David Rosenberg returns to Excess Returns to explain his bullish case for Treasury bonds, why he expects inflation and economic growth to slow, and the risks he sees in an AI-driven stock market. The Rosenberg Research founder joins Matt Zeigler to discuss consumer spending, Federal Reserve policy, gold, international stocks, and how he translates his economic outlook into a diversified portfolio.
Recorded September 16, 2026, before the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.
David Rosenberg on Twitter
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/
Topics covered:
Why Rosenberg believes markets have priced in too much Fed tightening and Treasury bonds offer an opportunity
Why he views higher oil prices as a tax on consumers rather than evidence of sustained, broad-based inflation
How slowing wage growth, falling savings, and the stock market wealth effect shape consumer spending
How Treasury issuance changes and potential post-election fiscal gridlock could support bonds
Why AI exposure extends beyond technology stocks into utilities, industrials, and other sectors
Where he sees opportunities in healthcare, consumer staples, pipelines, European stocks, and Asia
His model portfolio's allocation to equities, bonds, cash, and commodities
How gold, central bank buying, and a bearish dollar outlook fit his investment thesis
Why he is positioning for slower growth without making recession his base case
What working with portfolio managers taught him about cutting losses and separating conviction from stubbornness
Timestamps:
00:00 Rosenberg's portfolio approach and the Treasury opportunity
05:58 Why an oil shock can weaken consumer spending
10:52 Jobs, wages, and the stock market wealth effect
17:35 Fiscal stimulus, Treasury issuance, and the bond outlook
22:53 AI concentration risk beyond technology stocks
27:10 Why he owns European and Asian equities
31:16 Inside his 50% stocks, 30% bonds model portfolio
36:43 Betting against the inflation consensus
42:41 Gold, central bank reserves, and a weaker dollar
48:56 Recession watch and bear market risks for 2027
53:10 AI correlations and the risks of being fully invested
58:27 Cutting losses and knowing when conviction becomes stubbornness
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No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
