WEBVTT
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Hey Tiffrian, how are you doing?
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Hey Patrick.
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I'm doing well.
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Looking forward to another episode of Entangle Things.
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It's just us this time, and there's lots of big news, but we've picked what we think might be uh the biggest news.
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So um Microsoft has announced the Majorana 2, um, which is still not, they're not shipping a chip, if I understand correctly.
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Well, part of their road towards um materializing their vision on topological quantum computing, right?
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Using the uh a phenomenon or a construct that is called the Majorana Zero mode to build significantly more stable qubits using the Majorana virtual particle.
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And it's interesting because uh it looks like they've made some significant progress since uh the previous announcement.
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So my understanding from and and I I've read a lot about this, but especially in the first round, is they've taken basically an idea where they can use this Majorana fermion to build a structure, and that structure acts like a quantum circuit, a quantum string kind of, in in the same way that a superconducting qubit is a construct as well.
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But the big thing here is I heard it described as imagine a, you know the building in um uh Malaysia, the one with the that the two big buildings and they're connected on the trauma stallion Kuala Lumpur, yeah.
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Exactly.
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So I picture it like that, the way it was described, where if if one of the legs were taken out, it still could stand.
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And so that reduces the risk that a an errant gamma particle or some heat or something like that could take out the whole structure.
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In other words, it introduces a structural fault tolerance to the the actual qubit that makes it more resilient and therefore more almost immune to the noise, because the odds that both those legs are going to get taken out at the same time is near zero and they're far enough apart.
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Now, is part of the new architecture that they've gotten them further apart because that's where is that where the a thousand times more reliable came from?
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Or because they say logical, larger topological gap in the information that that that you have shared with me?
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Well, I think the the most important uh, let's say structural change is that they change materials.
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Um and and it's it's interesting uh just to to remind to our listeners, right?
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We are as opposed to, for instance, uh photonics, right, where uh we are really talking about uh particles that act as uh qubits, right?
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In this case, we are talking about what is commonly referred in physics as a virtual particle, which essentially means that's pretty much like the um uh approach with the uh the superconducting qubits, right?
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It's essentially a structure, it's a physical structure that ends up acting like a qubit.
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And in this particular case, the thing that acts like a uh acts like a qubit is this comes as a very surprising thing, is the parity of electrons in uh uh what is called a nanowire.
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Right.
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So if you have an odd number of electrons, you have one state.
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If you have a um uh uh uh change it right with plus one or minus one, even even versus odd numbers of you have you have the other state.
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No, and that's a readable state because of these the effects.
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Uh there's an a name for that effect, I can't remember what it is off the top of my head.
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This essentially is is built around what is called a nanowire, which is uh like a super, super, super, super uh uh thin like layer of of material.
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And what Microsoft said in their announcement that one of the big breakthroughs came from replacing aluminum, which is one of the well-known materials used for superconducting, right?
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Uh with lead.
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Really?
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Yes.
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Yeah, that's that's one of the uh uh one of the interesting uh uh one of the interesting things.
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And that resulted in significantly better protection from uh interesting.
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I mean there's an old old saying from the you know, maybe before the Industrial Revolution, cheap as lead.
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Because you'd think that they'd go to something quixotic like a rare earth or nimobidium or one of those others that's hard to get.
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It's good to hear that they're going to cheaper materials from from even though aluminum is pretty cheap, too.
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So the claims are a thousand times more reliability.
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And the and the whole promise of this, the whole promise of Microsoft's approach is rather than go down the road that others have gone down, photonics, superconducting qubits, what what really has been showing a lot of promise lately, which is uh neutrali, uh neutral or or ionized atoms, neutral atoms or ion ion uh ion atoms.
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Um they've decided to go back to something that had more promise for scale, but was a much further back starting gate.
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And they had that false step back in, I think it was 2018.
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I know I know it was before we started the podcast.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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And so they've been very playing close to the chest, almost like you know, they're they're afraid to make a mistake, and we understand that.
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But Microsoft has a reputation for getting shellacked, then going back to the drawing board with their massive Microsoft research organization, and then coming out with something like Internet Explorer.
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Remember in the in the browser wars, they they were they weren't a they were a no-show, and then they came in and dominated.
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So I really never count them out, and but I wish they would talk about this stuff more.
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Do you think, are you seeing any signs that they might start talking about this more now because it was Sacha Nagella that made the announcement, correct?
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Yes, yeah, yeah.
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And I well, it's it's understandable um that there is a certain, let's say, uh maybe not fear, but reluctance uh to talking publicly about these these things, especially from some of the some of the backlash, right?
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Remember, probably out of the companies that are out there trying to build reliable um commercial grade quantum computers, Microsoft is one that faces probably one of the heaviest scrutinies, right, because of the previous um uh let's call them issues, but also because the the physics itself that is involved, right, um has sparked some intense debate um uh uh in the world of physics, right?
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Yeah, this the skeptical camp is still claiming that there's no definitive proof that it exists.
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Yes, yes, that it's doing what it's supposed to do.
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There's an interesting also uh kind of twist here, but before that, I just want to mention, right, it's not necessarily a thousand times more reliable, it's a thousand times longer in terms of preserving state.
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Right?
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So essentially they claim that they were able to get to lifetimes of uh north of 20 seconds.
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Which is a long time in this which is an eternity in in in quantum computing, right?
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And in some isolated cases, those states were consistent for up to for up to one minute, right?
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Yeah, I I misread that.
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I it's a thousand times longer than earlier devices and a thousand-fold improvement in stability.
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Yeah, yeah, exactly.
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Which which could be read as reliability.
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Exactly.
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Well, this is actually in itself a very significant achievement because that means that the types of qubits that they are building show at least the potential, right, of being stable uh for way longer than needed to perform meaningful uh uh computation.
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And I think that's one of the fundamental reasons why Microsoft chose to uh the path of topological quantum computing, because and we've said it many times, right, if it works, and it's still an if, but if it works, right, it works in a very reliable way because it's it's almost like those those virtual particles are built, are engineered basically to be uh um protected from interference uh from the from the outside world.
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Right.
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And that's I I I think that's still the uh let's say the big prize uh in terms of topological quantum computing, right?
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If you can build a qubit based on uh on the topological approach, then it's very likely that it's gonna be a very stable qubit.
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Yeah, so the the the another I love analogy.
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So like if you think about World War II and fighter planes, if if one side said, you know what, we're gonna use propeller planes and we're gonna like mass produce those and we're gonna go all into that, we're not gonna worry about future technologies.
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And the other side says, well, we're gonna build jets, which no one's ever heard of, and they might not work, and you know, we have to start from square one, and we're gonna take a beating for a number of years while we develop these jets, because we're not gonna put anything into propeller planes.
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In the end, they're gonna race past everybody.
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And that's the the expectation or the the concern, I guess.
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So DARPA, um, the the U.S.
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Defense Advanced Research Planning Agency, I think, I think I got that name right, um, will make bets.
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They'll go and coordinate with companies that they think are gonna disrupt the space.
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And it was very telling that a couple of years ago, Microsoft was one, normally it's small companies and and and university spin-offs that they're talking to.
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They talk to Microsoft because they they recognize that if this play works, it would take a long time to even catch up with everybody.
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But if it did, it could race ahead.
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And that's we're kind of people are starting to declare that the NISC level, the noisy intermediate quantum computing age, is coming to an end.
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And if that's the case, then you know, 2029, 2030 could be huge.
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I mean, you you know that Mike uh Google has reined in their Q day prediction to 2029 and said they'll be they'll be you know quantum secure by that time.
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Now they're they're making quantum processors, so they you know they might know a little bit about what's going on.
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So it seems like the industry is looking at Microsoft as a dark horse, but it's still early days, and we still, you know, 2029 is still a good ways away.
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Um when do you think it will be settled that they've either found put lightning in a bottle or they went down the wrong path and it's a it's a coal mine?
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Well, the fact that that this ball still keeps rolling, right, despite all the setbacks, uh the fact that a giant like Microsoft continues to pour money um and in non-trivial amounts, right?
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That for me is a telling sign that there is definitely something there.
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Cool.
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Because I think Microsoft, like we know the Microsoft from the modern age, right?
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The Microsoft that um had its stock uh uh growing from the almost fixed price of$30, right, to super high levels.
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The the modern Microsoft is a very pragmatic company, right?
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And and we've seen uh write-offs in the amount of of billions and billions of dollars, right?
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When things were proven that they they just don't work.
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Think of the phone sada, right?
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I think that ended up being a very good thing.
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Well, they don't they don't hold on overly long, they they don't have the sunk cost paranoia where well we spent so much money, we gotta keep going.
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They don't do that.
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Yeah, yeah.
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So this this is a sign for me, right?
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That uh and that there was an interesting, there was a very interesting statement from uh Chatan Dayak, who's the Microsoft Technical Fellow, um, deeply involved, right, in the uh in the quantum research.
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Was a very interesting statement for for me.
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Basically, he said our aim is to invent the transistor for the quantum age.
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Yes, right, yeah.
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And that's uh uh uh a clear analogy to the way classical computing developed, right?
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When you've had lots and lots of modalities, right, to build computers, and all of a sudden the very stable and efficient and scalable one named transistor emerged, right?
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Well, and we started with vacuum tubes.
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You can't forget that.
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Yeah, exactly.
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So there were there were modalities before the transistor.
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And I I I think the kind of the view, right, and the vision is we're gonna take a very big risk uh in trying to materialize a concept and a technology that would be probably similar to the concept of a transistor from from classical computing, right?
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Because the other thing that's that's that's interesting with uh the approach that Microsoft has is that if you get, I don't know, two or four or eight qubits working from two or four or eight qubits to a million qubits, it's literally a matter of just linear scaling, right?
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It's not a problem of now you have too many layers, now you have interference, now you have things like that, right?
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And and this is the right point to mention something, Patrick, that is, I think also, at least to me, is is is extremely interesting, right?
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We've talked to a lot of people who are um essentially handling their qubits with tweezers and and with all sorts of things, right?
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The way the the Microsoft chip works is that the actual handling of of the qubits is done with measurements.
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And that's that's relatively unique, right?
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The way you you handle your qubit is actually through through measurements.
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And this is also one of the areas where the skeptics, uh the skeptics were, yeah, yeah, yeah, right, but you only produce the details about what we call the Z measurements, the X measurements, but you haven't produced details with the Z measurements, because those are like essentially across different axes.
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So Microsoft still has to prove, has to produce the hard data for that.
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It is essentially referred to in the paper that they um they announced, but the data still has to be published.
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So that's very interesting.
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So we're not going to be able to do that.
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But long story short, I think the um I think there is some some very significant potential.
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And the fact that a very pragmatic organization like Modern Microsoft keeps pushing this tells me that despite of the previous setbacks and the criticism and the pushback, right?
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I think there is there is definitely something there.
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Yeah.
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And and we've said that that we may not have one modality to rule them all.
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This might be a modality that works in certain areas far better than others, and it might man, it might not even work out.
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When is there a possibility?
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I mean, uh I don't have inside information, and I don't think you have any inside information.
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I wonder whether you could use one of these qubits to measure one dimension.
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They wouldn't be connected, I guess.
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I I I guess I have questions about how they entangle them, what's that look like, how many they could entangle.
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Um, but again, they're playing it very close to the vest.
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I don't I don't know that that data is out there, or if it is, I'm missing it.
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Well, the the way this the way this thing is uh the way this thing is built, right, um, is they essentially produced a concept that is called a Tetron.
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That's that's how they that's how they name it, right?
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And basically think of a Tetron as essentially two of these superconducting nanowires, right?
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Wires that are are so thin, right, that they're almost like single-dimensional, and they're built of of the superconducting material, which was aluminum, and now it's um and now it's it's it's it's a lead, right?
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And essentially these two nanowires host at their ends these Majorana Zero modes, which are coming in pairs, right?
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Um, and the information itself is stored in the um uh in the parity of electrons via these uh um uh these these these these structures, right?
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Uh which essentially means that you can within a Tetron, right, you can handle either single qubits or or or or two qubits, and you can handle uh things like um um uh uh entanglement, right?
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Now what they what they say is that the other important advantage of this approach, right, is it essentially supports in a very natural way both digital control and error correction.
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So the plan is to actually take these tetrons and essentially multiply them um on chips.
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So going from like one Tetron to a thousand Tetron to a million Tetron is essentially a problem of of replicating uh of replicating them.
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Um so it's very interesting, right?
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It's it's uh what was really interesting for me or or to me, right, is the fact that it is uh for the first time that we've heard, um, and again, just we need to take it with a grain of salt, we need to see the proof and everything.
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It was the first time we've heard of coherence times that are into seconds, right?
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We were always talking about microseconds, milliseconds, things like that, right?
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Which by the way, are are are more than enough for for performing quantum computation.
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But to mind different modalities have different speeds, so but it's the first time we've heard about these these I would call them insanely long coherence times, right?
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Like 20 seconds as as as I said, is is is essentially an eternity.
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Um yeah, I wish I wish we could get I I well, I I guess I'm hoping that they'll there'll be a lot more talking now that they see this as a watershed moment, but I I I think there's a strong chance there isn't, that they stay quiet the next year.
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Well, the the other interesting thing was to me you mentioned DARPA, right?
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And um maybe it's worth mentioning that the whole DARPA program.
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Um I think the the actual name is the um um Defense Advanced Research Projects.
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Yeah, no, no, but the program that DARPA runs is the the underexplored systems for utility scale quantum computing.
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That's that's the the the program that it that it runs, right?
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And um this program has per uh uh participation like from from like some some very heavy names, right?
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Like the air.
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Force Research Laboratory, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, right?
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John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, and so forth.
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So there is a bunch of extremely smart people in there that are running the program, right?
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And Microsoft architecture and designs were repeatedly assessed by this, right?
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So it's not like, I don't know, five years ago someone was impressed, like, oh my God, you have this great idea, you're gonna build a Maiorana uh topological quantum computer, right?
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It they are constantly assessed, which is also an indication to me that there is some non-trivial amount of progress happening there.
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And and Microsoft's prepared, we and we don't talk about this too often, but Microsoft has really prepared an ecosystem for them to be the middleware.
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So if this works out, then suddenly Microsoft becomes one of the only vendors that's in the middle with their own stack because they got Q Sharp, they've got Azure, they've got hosted quantum already.
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They've they you can basically use Q Sharp to address a D-Wave system and other systems.
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I think Regetti's up there as well.
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Um and so they they've got a lot of that.
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Right.
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So they've got a lot of that covered, and it would be easy for them to just shove their system into the same model.
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So they've got a a big, they've got a really good play of the middleware.
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Now, when when that first happened, I think I remember saying to you, I think that was a hedge to some extent.
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It makes sense to do if they're going to be successful, but even if they're not successful with their own modality, it still lets them play in the game and be a middleware broker and a big one, an important one.
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They got the cloud, they got the language and the tooling.
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To have the actual an actual modality of their own to host, that would be a big deal.
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Do you expect them to only make it available through Azure?
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Or would they, you think, sell machines as well eventually?
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I think that it's an impossible question to answer.
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I'm just calling for speculation.
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I think everything's on the table, but um remember, topological quantum computing is still a modality that requires uh pretty low temperatures.
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Yeah.
00:24:36.000 --> 00:24:39.519
Um so this is a modality of building stuff, right?
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It's uh that still requires dilution refrigerators and and stuff.
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So it will require pretty heavy gear.
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No, yeah, I'm not thinking they're gonna sell it on the Microsoft store, but IBM selling their chip and they require the same.
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Is it the same, it's the same temperature range, isn't it?
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It's millikelvin, isn't it?
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I yeah, it's it's low.
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It's very it's very low.
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So and and I think what they actually have as a strategy is to at the end of the day offer the business service, let's call it like that, right?
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Where it doesn't really matter what is the underlying hardware.
00:25:19.599 --> 00:25:42.799
Um their plan is to essentially offer the output at the other end, which is the capability of performing classes of computations that are uh, let's say, geared towards very practical problems, whether it's about material science or or or machine learning or or or things like things like that, right?
00:25:42.960 --> 00:26:11.759
So um I would be, I'm not ruling it out, but I would be surprised to see Microsoft uh selling um quantum computing machines, uh whatever the packaging would be, because I think that based on what they build, the kind of the vertical integration, right, from the uh uh lower layer, which is the actual hardware, all the way to the programming languages, the SDK, right?
00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:15.279
Um I think it suits them better to do it this way.
00:26:15.359 --> 00:26:25.119
And then remember, one of the things that they are also pioneering, which doesn't get a lot of traction, but I think it will become one of the very important aspects is hybrid.
00:26:25.920 --> 00:26:28.880
Uh and we've covered this many, many times, right?
00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:49.920
Um I certainly believe that there will be no pure quantum computer or quantum computing solution out there, because even the um, let's say ubiquitous short discussion that actually requires an efficient combination of classical computing and quantum computing.
00:26:50.079 --> 00:27:00.079
And owning the stack, right, and being one of the big players in classical computing, I think it's it's gonna provide a significant, uh a significant advantage, right?
00:27:00.799 --> 00:27:20.559
Now um the other thing that I believe we have to mention, right, also is um uh that this is still right, just to keep things real, it's a major announcement, uh but this does not announce essentially a commercially useful quantum, right?
00:27:20.880 --> 00:27:24.960
So um they proposed the prototype, right?
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:40.319
They they provided some very interesting experimental results, uh, which again still have to be reviewed, um, and we're hopefully not gonna um uh end up with another 2018 um um moments, right?
00:27:40.640 --> 00:27:44.720
But I think it's it's very encouraging.
00:27:44.960 --> 00:28:12.319
It's also encouraging the fact that they kind of changed the the future estimates previously they were put in the 2030s, and now at this uh uh uh conference that they made the announcement, they said that it's uh uh likely that a commercial version could be um available as early as 2029.
00:28:12.400 --> 00:28:15.119
And that's this was a build, I believe, right?
00:28:15.359 --> 00:28:19.839
Yeah, it was the Microsoft Build Conference, which uh was early June.
00:28:20.000 --> 00:28:20.319
Yeah.
00:28:20.559 --> 00:28:41.599
Um, so I I believe that this is also significant because publicly announcing and setting this expectation um is a bit different from many other players which are still providing the horizon of the 2030s in terms of of this of these machines.
00:28:41.839 --> 00:28:46.240
So um overall, I think this is very exciting news.
00:28:46.319 --> 00:28:47.759
I think it's positive.
00:28:48.319 --> 00:29:08.960
Um and um what what really what I really like about this is that uh we if you think about the last 12 months and we've discussed with some remarkable people, we've discussed with with with some some some remarkable um companies out there, right?
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:16.559
Is that we are seeing significant improvement across multiple modalities.
00:29:17.200 --> 00:29:22.400
So it's not really that we have one modality that it's having a breakthrough, right?
00:29:22.799 --> 00:29:37.200
We have seen significant uh significant improvement across the the board, and um that gives me uh uh let's say I am much more optimistic than I was 12 months ago.
00:29:37.680 --> 00:29:38.799
A warm fuzzy, yeah.
00:29:39.119 --> 00:29:47.359
With yeah, with respect to we're still not there, that's that's extremely um um important to say, right?
00:29:48.000 --> 00:30:05.039
But um I I I think it's it's it's significantly we have a significantly better uh let's say uh prediction right now uh in terms of of where things are it's gonna be exciting times to come.
00:30:05.279 --> 00:30:09.920
Um so you know you and I have a long history with Microsoft.
00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:11.519
We should just definitely disclose that.
00:30:11.680 --> 00:30:20.480
You I was uh involved in their partner program and took a lot of their certifications and had NDAs for many years, 20 20 plus years.
00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:28.240
Um now I'm I'm uh one of their MVPs, as are you, and you participate also as a Microsoft regional director, which I left a few years ago.
00:30:28.400 --> 00:30:32.880
So it's not we're not like outsiders strictly, so we should disclose that a little bit.
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:38.559
But we also aren't talking to the quantum team on a regular basis, or at least I'm not.
00:30:38.720 --> 00:30:44.559
Um and so it it kind of gives us the freedom to talk about this without stepping on anything secret.
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:47.200
I don't have any deep, dark secrets, but I'd like to.
00:30:47.359 --> 00:30:49.119
I'd like to know more about what's going on here.
00:30:49.200 --> 00:30:51.279
So hopefully we we have to just wait for everybody else.
00:30:51.440 --> 00:31:02.880
I think the 2029 announcement is aggressive, but I'm very hopeful that that means that they they figured it out and they've got their steam and they're they're gonna run with it.
00:31:02.960 --> 00:31:06.160
Um and let the let the doubters dig themselves a hole.
00:31:06.400 --> 00:31:08.000
I hope that works out.
00:31:08.160 --> 00:31:12.559
I'm sure there's others in the industry that are hoping that it's all you know just vaporware.
00:31:12.720 --> 00:31:14.240
Uh, but I guess time will tell.
00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:16.079
Uh what are other dark horses?
00:31:16.240 --> 00:31:22.960
I I I think I think um neutral ions was a bit of a dark horse five years ago when we started this podcast.
00:31:23.039 --> 00:31:23.920
We weren't talking about them.
00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:33.279
We were talking about photonics and we were talking about um superconducting qubits because of Google, uh, because of um uh IBM.
00:31:33.599 --> 00:31:37.680
Yeah, I consider them to be somebody that's kind of come out of the wings.
00:31:38.000 --> 00:31:41.279
Is there any other uh modalities you're kind of keeping an eye on?
00:31:41.440 --> 00:31:49.759
Or no, I think um I think we're seeing these um modalities maturing, right?
00:31:50.079 --> 00:31:56.720
Um neutral atoms, trapped ions, the superconducting stuff, the photonics, right?
00:31:57.279 --> 00:32:04.799
Um uh as well as the the topological, we are seeing improvements across the board, right?
00:32:04.960 --> 00:32:19.119
And I think rather than having some obscure thing as being the dark horse, I think there are aspects of these modalities, Patrick, that are we can call them like the dark horse.
00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:27.440
Like if you ask me, right, the the dark horse of photonics is or even to some extent neutral atoms is room temperature.
00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:28.400
Yes, right?
00:32:28.640 --> 00:32:34.960
It's is the fact that they don't require those insane technologies, right, to keep them.
00:32:35.200 --> 00:32:45.119
Uh on the other hand, I think the dark horse of topological quantum computing is the inner instability, which looks like it's been it's been proven.
00:32:45.279 --> 00:32:53.839
So they all have, let's say, um uh strong points, uh, but also significant weaknesses.
00:32:54.000 --> 00:32:54.319
Yeah.
00:32:54.559 --> 00:33:08.160
Um and and think it's gonna be a matter of of what is the speed at which those, let's say, um, weaknesses can be addressed um moving moving forward.
00:33:09.039 --> 00:33:14.720
The bet would be on the ones that whose weakness is more in the rearview mirror and less in the front windshield.
00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:18.559
Yeah, and the ones that can handle better error correction.
00:33:18.880 --> 00:33:20.319
I think you were that's the promise.
00:33:20.480 --> 00:33:33.119
I I think you said a very important thing at the beginning of this discussion, which is hey, uh we are really starting to see the end of the tunnel in terms of addressing the problem of error correction.
00:33:33.200 --> 00:33:40.880
I think whoever is capable of addressing it in a more efficient way, faster or sooner, right, that's gonna be.
00:33:41.119 --> 00:34:00.079
But I would also want to say at this point that I am starting to almost be like a hundred percent believer in a multi-modality featuring like photonics is definitely gonna be a part of the networking in quantum computing.
00:34:00.160 --> 00:34:08.239
I I think this is where the the history path will diverge from classical to quantum.
00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:19.519
I think at this point, based on what we've seen in the past 12 months and what we're seeing now, I think there is very likely that the world of quantum computing is gonna be shared.
00:34:19.840 --> 00:34:24.000
Are you are you saying you don't have any vacuum tube devices on your desk right now?
00:34:24.800 --> 00:34:31.920
Um well, not really I use on a regular basis.
00:34:32.480 --> 00:34:33.440
Don't mat, don't count.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:35.280
On a regular basis.
00:34:35.440 --> 00:34:39.360
I would dare to say almost, not almost, all my devices are transistor based.
00:34:39.679 --> 00:34:39.840
Of course.
00:34:39.920 --> 00:34:41.360
Yeah, I was making I was telling you, G.
00:34:41.920 --> 00:34:55.039
So I I I I'm starting to be uh uh uh again, uh a firm believer in multimodality because yeah, it looks like it's you have the uh uh also, right?
00:34:55.119 --> 00:34:57.440
You mentioned at some points it's a horse race.
00:34:57.519 --> 00:34:59.599
It's pretty much like in horse racing, right?
00:34:59.760 --> 00:35:05.760
There is one neck in front, and then there's another neck in front, and they're changing again.
00:35:06.000 --> 00:35:11.840
Um and I I think based on the innovation and the investment that it's being made.
00:35:12.480 --> 00:35:28.639
Well, and we've also seen that the the multimodality is a is an easy bet now when you think about sensing, because like the the we talked to that guy uh a while back about diamond vacancies, and and the sensors aren't all gonna go down one road.
00:35:28.880 --> 00:35:37.679
So I I think we're it's still gonna be a bit of a wild west west for these modalities and what they are what their niches are, what does what which thing better.
00:35:37.840 --> 00:35:40.000
Uh and so yeah, I think it'll be a much more varied.
00:35:40.480 --> 00:35:58.960
And remember, remember, Patrick, one of the things that are still not solved, and I think it's gonna be the next big thing after we have uh uh relatively stable computers is still essentially embedding problems, real-world problems, into this paradigm of computing.
00:35:59.039 --> 00:36:03.199
And I I this is an area where I don't feel we've made a lot of progress.
00:36:03.440 --> 00:36:06.400
I think AI is waiting in the wings to solve this problem, though.
00:36:06.719 --> 00:36:13.760
Yeah, but I also think that different modalities will be suitable for different classes of problems.
00:36:14.000 --> 00:36:14.159
Yeah.
00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:18.239
So there will be certain types of problems that will be easier to understand.
00:36:18.559 --> 00:36:19.360
D-Wave showed that.
00:36:19.519 --> 00:36:23.679
D-Wave made it made that clear and already gave us that example.
00:36:23.920 --> 00:36:31.119
Although they're starting to dabble in um in universal gate quantum computers as well, because the writing's on the wall.
00:36:31.199 --> 00:36:45.599
If we get uh the things they're doing well now, and again, it they made a conscious play to say we're gonna go down this path, which is a little more short-lived, but we can get we can actually get running annual recurring revenue sooner.
00:36:46.079 --> 00:36:48.159
Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly.
00:36:48.320 --> 00:36:56.239
I think it's um uh I think D-Wave was a pioneer, it's still a pioneer, right?
00:36:56.639 --> 00:37:08.400
Um, but the fact that we haven't seen a lot of of other um startups or companies going towards the adiabatic quantum computing, right?
00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:10.480
That also tells me a story.
00:37:11.920 --> 00:37:30.800
Um which which is there are certain types of problems that can be solved there, but it it it it certainly looks like that um gate-based quantum computing, right, is is the um is the area where where these things are are probably the most uh uh the most promising.
00:37:30.960 --> 00:37:31.280
Yeah.
00:37:31.599 --> 00:37:35.039
So yeah, I think it's uh something to watch.
00:37:35.599 --> 00:37:41.519
Overall, it's we're living again some very interesting times.
00:37:41.840 --> 00:37:44.239
And to my cursed.
00:37:45.760 --> 00:37:52.400
And again, this is where history also parts ways is and you've explained this multiple times, right?
00:37:53.199 --> 00:37:56.159
Uh a quantum winter is still nowhere to be seen.
00:37:56.320 --> 00:37:59.760
And and that's very likely because of the security implications, right?
00:38:00.000 --> 00:38:00.559
Yeah, agree.
00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:02.320
And and the cryptography.
00:38:02.480 --> 00:38:12.719
And it it certainly looks like the past 12 months are actually uh adding some tailwind to to these companies, right?
00:38:12.960 --> 00:38:17.519
And they they seem to be moving forward with with uh a lot of innovation.
00:38:17.679 --> 00:38:31.039
So I don't see at least in the next maybe 24 to 36 months um any um situation developing where um we could see uh slowing down in in this particular area.
00:38:31.199 --> 00:38:36.159
So it's a very exciting time to uh to be connected to this field for sure.
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:42.079
I agree, and we'll watch it closely, and I think that's I think I think we're done for today.
00:38:42.320 --> 00:38:42.960
Out of time.
00:38:43.440 --> 00:38:48.400
I mean, we could talk for a three for another couple of hours, but we have to stop somewhere.
00:38:48.559 --> 00:38:52.079
So I think this is a we've proven that to the point we started a podcast.
00:38:52.159 --> 00:38:55.920
So uh but I think we should leave it there, and we'll see everybody the next time.
00:38:56.159 --> 00:38:56.400
Yep.
00:38:56.639 --> 00:38:57.119
Bye, man.
00:38:57.360 --> 00:38:57.920
Thanks, everyone.
00:38:58.159 --> 00:38:58.320
Bye.
00:38:58.480 --> 00:38:58.960
Bye.
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00:00:40.479 --> 00:00:42.159
Hey Tiffrian, how are you doing?
00:00:42.640 --> 00:00:43.439
Hey Patrick.
00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:44.320
I'm doing well.
00:00:44.479 --> 00:00:47.119
Looking forward to another episode of Entangle Things.
00:00:47.600 --> 00:00:53.600
It's just us this time, and there's lots of big news, but we've picked what we think might be uh the biggest news.
00:00:53.840 --> 00:01:03.039
So um Microsoft has announced the Majorana 2, um, which is still not, they're not shipping a chip, if I understand correctly.
00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:14.000
Well, part of their road towards um materializing their vision on topological quantum computing, right?
00:01:14.159 --> 00:01:31.359
Using the uh a phenomenon or a construct that is called the Majorana Zero mode to build significantly more stable qubits using the Majorana virtual particle.
00:01:31.760 --> 00:01:39.200
And it's interesting because uh it looks like they've made some significant progress since uh the previous announcement.
00:01:39.599 --> 00:02:05.359
So my understanding from and and I I've read a lot about this, but especially in the first round, is they've taken basically an idea where they can use this Majorana fermion to build a structure, and that structure acts like a quantum circuit, a quantum string kind of, in in the same way that a superconducting qubit is a construct as well.
00:02:05.599 --> 00:02:19.280
But the big thing here is I heard it described as imagine a, you know the building in um uh Malaysia, the one with the that the two big buildings and they're connected on the trauma stallion Kuala Lumpur, yeah.
00:02:19.599 --> 00:02:20.240
Exactly.
00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:30.800
So I picture it like that, the way it was described, where if if one of the legs were taken out, it still could stand.
00:02:31.599 --> 00:02:40.479
And so that reduces the risk that a an errant gamma particle or some heat or something like that could take out the whole structure.
00:02:40.560 --> 00:03:00.159
In other words, it introduces a structural fault tolerance to the the actual qubit that makes it more resilient and therefore more almost immune to the noise, because the odds that both those legs are going to get taken out at the same time is near zero and they're far enough apart.
00:03:00.319 --> 00:03:09.280
Now, is part of the new architecture that they've gotten them further apart because that's where is that where the a thousand times more reliable came from?
00:03:09.520 --> 00:03:17.599
Or because they say logical, larger topological gap in the information that that that you have shared with me?
00:03:18.400 --> 00:03:26.639
Well, I think the the most important uh, let's say structural change is that they change materials.
00:03:27.439 --> 00:03:34.479
Um and and it's it's interesting uh just to to remind to our listeners, right?
00:03:34.800 --> 00:03:47.840
We are as opposed to, for instance, uh photonics, right, where uh we are really talking about uh particles that act as uh qubits, right?
00:03:48.000 --> 00:04:02.000
In this case, we are talking about what is commonly referred in physics as a virtual particle, which essentially means that's pretty much like the um uh approach with the uh the superconducting qubits, right?
00:04:02.240 --> 00:04:08.319
It's essentially a structure, it's a physical structure that ends up acting like a qubit.
00:04:08.479 --> 00:04:24.480
And in this particular case, the thing that acts like a uh acts like a qubit is this comes as a very surprising thing, is the parity of electrons in uh uh what is called a nanowire.
00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:25.040
Right.
00:04:25.519 --> 00:04:29.199
So if you have an odd number of electrons, you have one state.
00:04:29.279 --> 00:04:40.560
If you have a um uh uh uh change it right with plus one or minus one, even even versus odd numbers of you have you have the other state.
00:04:40.639 --> 00:04:45.040
No, and that's a readable state because of these the effects.
00:04:45.199 --> 00:04:48.240
Uh there's an a name for that effect, I can't remember what it is off the top of my head.
00:04:48.639 --> 00:05:00.079
This essentially is is built around what is called a nanowire, which is uh like a super, super, super, super uh uh thin like layer of of material.
00:05:00.160 --> 00:05:13.759
And what Microsoft said in their announcement that one of the big breakthroughs came from replacing aluminum, which is one of the well-known materials used for superconducting, right?
00:05:14.079 --> 00:05:15.519
Uh with lead.
00:05:15.839 --> 00:05:16.240
Really?
00:05:16.800 --> 00:05:17.120
Yes.
00:05:17.279 --> 00:05:23.680
Yeah, that's that's one of the uh uh one of the interesting uh uh one of the interesting things.
00:05:23.759 --> 00:05:28.560
And that resulted in significantly better protection from uh interesting.
00:05:28.720 --> 00:05:34.560
I mean there's an old old saying from the you know, maybe before the Industrial Revolution, cheap as lead.
00:05:34.879 --> 00:05:42.160
Because you'd think that they'd go to something quixotic like a rare earth or nimobidium or one of those others that's hard to get.
00:05:42.319 --> 00:05:48.560
It's good to hear that they're going to cheaper materials from from even though aluminum is pretty cheap, too.
00:05:48.959 --> 00:05:53.439
So the claims are a thousand times more reliability.
00:05:53.600 --> 00:06:15.279
And the and the whole promise of this, the whole promise of Microsoft's approach is rather than go down the road that others have gone down, photonics, superconducting qubits, what what really has been showing a lot of promise lately, which is uh neutrali, uh neutral or or ionized atoms, neutral atoms or ion ion uh ion atoms.
00:06:15.600 --> 00:06:25.199
Um they've decided to go back to something that had more promise for scale, but was a much further back starting gate.
00:06:25.680 --> 00:06:29.360
And they had that false step back in, I think it was 2018.
00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:31.519
I know I know it was before we started the podcast.
00:06:31.680 --> 00:06:32.639
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:06:32.879 --> 00:06:39.839
And so they've been very playing close to the chest, almost like you know, they're they're afraid to make a mistake, and we understand that.
00:06:40.000 --> 00:06:52.879
But Microsoft has a reputation for getting shellacked, then going back to the drawing board with their massive Microsoft research organization, and then coming out with something like Internet Explorer.
00:06:53.199 --> 00:07:00.879
Remember in the in the browser wars, they they were they weren't a they were a no-show, and then they came in and dominated.
00:07:01.360 --> 00:07:06.319
So I really never count them out, and but I wish they would talk about this stuff more.
00:07:06.480 --> 00:07:13.360
Do you think, are you seeing any signs that they might start talking about this more now because it was Sacha Nagella that made the announcement, correct?
00:07:13.759 --> 00:07:15.120
Yes, yeah, yeah.
00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:36.160
And I well, it's it's understandable um that there is a certain, let's say, uh maybe not fear, but reluctance uh to talking publicly about these these things, especially from some of the some of the backlash, right?
00:07:36.399 --> 00:08:10.240
Remember, probably out of the companies that are out there trying to build reliable um commercial grade quantum computers, Microsoft is one that faces probably one of the heaviest scrutinies, right, because of the previous um uh let's call them issues, but also because the the physics itself that is involved, right, um has sparked some intense debate um uh uh in the world of physics, right?
00:08:10.480 --> 00:08:15.839
Yeah, this the skeptical camp is still claiming that there's no definitive proof that it exists.
00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:18.800
Yes, yes, that it's doing what it's supposed to do.
00:08:19.279 --> 00:08:37.200
There's an interesting also uh kind of twist here, but before that, I just want to mention, right, it's not necessarily a thousand times more reliable, it's a thousand times longer in terms of preserving state.
00:08:37.600 --> 00:08:38.080
Right?
00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:48.639
So essentially they claim that they were able to get to lifetimes of uh north of 20 seconds.
00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:54.639
Which is a long time in this which is an eternity in in in quantum computing, right?
00:08:55.039 --> 00:09:01.600
And in some isolated cases, those states were consistent for up to for up to one minute, right?
00:09:01.840 --> 00:09:03.039
Yeah, I I misread that.
00:09:03.120 --> 00:09:08.559
I it's a thousand times longer than earlier devices and a thousand-fold improvement in stability.
00:09:08.960 --> 00:09:10.000
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
00:09:10.240 --> 00:09:12.080
Which which could be read as reliability.
00:09:12.559 --> 00:09:13.200
Exactly.
00:09:13.519 --> 00:09:36.720
Well, this is actually in itself a very significant achievement because that means that the types of qubits that they are building show at least the potential, right, of being stable uh for way longer than needed to perform meaningful uh uh computation.
00:09:37.039 --> 00:10:10.960
And I think that's one of the fundamental reasons why Microsoft chose to uh the path of topological quantum computing, because and we've said it many times, right, if it works, and it's still an if, but if it works, right, it works in a very reliable way because it's it's almost like those those virtual particles are built, are engineered basically to be uh um protected from interference uh from the from the outside world.
00:10:11.120 --> 00:10:11.279
Right.
00:10:11.519 --> 00:10:21.120
And that's I I I think that's still the uh let's say the big prize uh in terms of topological quantum computing, right?
00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:29.919
If you can build a qubit based on uh on the topological approach, then it's very likely that it's gonna be a very stable qubit.
00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:32.879
Yeah, so the the the another I love analogy.
00:10:33.120 --> 00:10:45.600
So like if you think about World War II and fighter planes, if if one side said, you know what, we're gonna use propeller planes and we're gonna like mass produce those and we're gonna go all into that, we're not gonna worry about future technologies.
00:10:45.840 --> 00:11:01.600
And the other side says, well, we're gonna build jets, which no one's ever heard of, and they might not work, and you know, we have to start from square one, and we're gonna take a beating for a number of years while we develop these jets, because we're not gonna put anything into propeller planes.
00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:04.399
In the end, they're gonna race past everybody.
00:11:04.639 --> 00:11:09.679
And that's the the expectation or the the concern, I guess.
00:11:09.840 --> 00:11:12.799
So DARPA, um, the the U.S.
00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:19.679
Defense Advanced Research Planning Agency, I think, I think I got that name right, um, will make bets.
00:11:19.759 --> 00:11:23.679
They'll go and coordinate with companies that they think are gonna disrupt the space.
00:11:23.840 --> 00:11:32.240
And it was very telling that a couple of years ago, Microsoft was one, normally it's small companies and and and university spin-offs that they're talking to.
00:11:32.399 --> 00:11:40.720
They talk to Microsoft because they they recognize that if this play works, it would take a long time to even catch up with everybody.
00:11:41.039 --> 00:11:43.759
But if it did, it could race ahead.
00:11:43.840 --> 00:11:53.120
And that's we're kind of people are starting to declare that the NISC level, the noisy intermediate quantum computing age, is coming to an end.
00:11:53.360 --> 00:11:58.879
And if that's the case, then you know, 2029, 2030 could be huge.
00:11:59.039 --> 00:12:09.120
I mean, you you know that Mike uh Google has reined in their Q day prediction to 2029 and said they'll be they'll be you know quantum secure by that time.
00:12:09.279 --> 00:12:16.399
Now they're they're making quantum processors, so they you know they might know a little bit about what's going on.
00:12:16.799 --> 00:12:26.720
So it seems like the industry is looking at Microsoft as a dark horse, but it's still early days, and we still, you know, 2029 is still a good ways away.
00:12:26.960 --> 00:12:37.279
Um when do you think it will be settled that they've either found put lightning in a bottle or they went down the wrong path and it's a it's a coal mine?
00:12:37.919 --> 00:12:57.840
Well, the fact that that this ball still keeps rolling, right, despite all the setbacks, uh the fact that a giant like Microsoft continues to pour money um and in non-trivial amounts, right?
00:12:58.320 --> 00:13:02.399
That for me is a telling sign that there is definitely something there.
00:13:02.639 --> 00:13:02.879
Cool.
00:13:03.039 --> 00:13:08.399
Because I think Microsoft, like we know the Microsoft from the modern age, right?
00:13:08.480 --> 00:13:21.519
The Microsoft that um had its stock uh uh growing from the almost fixed price of$30, right, to super high levels.
00:13:21.759 --> 00:13:25.279
The the modern Microsoft is a very pragmatic company, right?
00:13:25.360 --> 00:13:33.679
And and we've seen uh write-offs in the amount of of billions and billions of dollars, right?
00:13:33.759 --> 00:13:37.200
When things were proven that they they just don't work.
00:13:37.360 --> 00:13:40.480
Think of the phone sada, right?
00:13:40.639 --> 00:13:42.480
I think that ended up being a very good thing.
00:13:42.639 --> 00:13:50.720
Well, they don't they don't hold on overly long, they they don't have the sunk cost paranoia where well we spent so much money, we gotta keep going.
00:13:50.799 --> 00:13:51.519
They don't do that.
00:13:52.080 --> 00:13:52.639
Yeah, yeah.
00:13:52.720 --> 00:13:55.279
So this this is a sign for me, right?
00:13:55.440 --> 00:14:10.480
That uh and that there was an interesting, there was a very interesting statement from uh Chatan Dayak, who's the Microsoft Technical Fellow, um, deeply involved, right, in the uh in the quantum research.
00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:13.360
Was a very interesting statement for for me.
00:14:13.759 --> 00:14:20.960
Basically, he said our aim is to invent the transistor for the quantum age.
00:14:21.120 --> 00:14:22.080
Yes, right, yeah.
00:14:22.320 --> 00:14:28.799
And that's uh uh uh a clear analogy to the way classical computing developed, right?
00:14:29.039 --> 00:14:42.000
When you've had lots and lots of modalities, right, to build computers, and all of a sudden the very stable and efficient and scalable one named transistor emerged, right?
00:14:42.399 --> 00:14:44.159
Well, and we started with vacuum tubes.
00:14:44.240 --> 00:14:45.039
You can't forget that.
00:14:45.279 --> 00:14:45.840
Yeah, exactly.
00:14:46.399 --> 00:14:49.440
So there were there were modalities before the transistor.
00:14:49.840 --> 00:15:10.080
And I I I think the kind of the view, right, and the vision is we're gonna take a very big risk uh in trying to materialize a concept and a technology that would be probably similar to the concept of a transistor from from classical computing, right?
00:15:10.639 --> 00:15:33.200
Because the other thing that's that's that's interesting with uh the approach that Microsoft has is that if you get, I don't know, two or four or eight qubits working from two or four or eight qubits to a million qubits, it's literally a matter of just linear scaling, right?
00:15:33.919 --> 00:15:41.759
It's not a problem of now you have too many layers, now you have interference, now you have things like that, right?
00:15:42.000 --> 00:15:50.480
And and this is the right point to mention something, Patrick, that is, I think also, at least to me, is is is extremely interesting, right?
00:15:50.799 --> 00:16:01.120
We've talked to a lot of people who are um essentially handling their qubits with tweezers and and with all sorts of things, right?
00:16:01.679 --> 00:16:12.799
The way the the Microsoft chip works is that the actual handling of of the qubits is done with measurements.
00:16:13.279 --> 00:16:16.000
And that's that's relatively unique, right?
00:16:17.279 --> 00:16:22.399
The way you you handle your qubit is actually through through measurements.
00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:42.480
And this is also one of the areas where the skeptics, uh the skeptics were, yeah, yeah, yeah, right, but you only produce the details about what we call the Z measurements, the X measurements, but you haven't produced details with the Z measurements, because those are like essentially across different axes.
00:16:42.559 --> 00:16:47.279
So Microsoft still has to prove, has to produce the hard data for that.
00:16:47.440 --> 00:16:54.799
It is essentially referred to in the paper that they um they announced, but the data still has to be published.
00:16:54.879 --> 00:16:55.919
So that's very interesting.
00:16:56.159 --> 00:16:56.559
So we're not going to be able to do that.
00:16:56.639 --> 00:17:05.599
But long story short, I think the um I think there is some some very significant potential.
00:17:05.759 --> 00:17:17.759
And the fact that a very pragmatic organization like Modern Microsoft keeps pushing this tells me that despite of the previous setbacks and the criticism and the pushback, right?
00:17:17.920 --> 00:17:20.319
I think there is there is definitely something there.
00:17:20.640 --> 00:17:21.039
Yeah.
00:17:21.359 --> 00:17:26.240
And and we've said that that we may not have one modality to rule them all.
00:17:26.400 --> 00:17:31.920
This might be a modality that works in certain areas far better than others, and it might man, it might not even work out.
00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:33.839
When is there a possibility?
00:17:33.920 --> 00:17:38.799
I mean, uh I don't have inside information, and I don't think you have any inside information.
00:17:39.039 --> 00:17:47.599
I wonder whether you could use one of these qubits to measure one dimension.
00:17:48.400 --> 00:17:50.000
They wouldn't be connected, I guess.
00:17:50.160 --> 00:17:56.480
I I I guess I have questions about how they entangle them, what's that look like, how many they could entangle.
00:17:56.640 --> 00:17:59.200
Um, but again, they're playing it very close to the vest.
00:17:59.279 --> 00:18:02.559
I don't I don't know that that data is out there, or if it is, I'm missing it.
00:18:03.279 --> 00:18:15.839
Well, the the way this the way this thing is uh the way this thing is built, right, um, is they essentially produced a concept that is called a Tetron.
00:18:16.480 --> 00:18:19.279
That's that's how they that's how they name it, right?
00:18:19.440 --> 00:18:28.720
And basically think of a Tetron as essentially two of these superconducting nanowires, right?
00:18:28.960 --> 00:18:43.440
Wires that are are so thin, right, that they're almost like single-dimensional, and they're built of of the superconducting material, which was aluminum, and now it's um and now it's it's it's it's a lead, right?
00:18:43.680 --> 00:18:54.319
And essentially these two nanowires host at their ends these Majorana Zero modes, which are coming in pairs, right?
00:18:54.640 --> 00:19:05.039
Um, and the information itself is stored in the um uh in the parity of electrons via these uh um uh these these these these structures, right?
00:19:05.359 --> 00:19:21.759
Uh which essentially means that you can within a Tetron, right, you can handle either single qubits or or or or two qubits, and you can handle uh things like um um uh uh entanglement, right?
00:19:21.920 --> 00:19:37.599
Now what they what they say is that the other important advantage of this approach, right, is it essentially supports in a very natural way both digital control and error correction.
00:19:38.079 --> 00:19:46.000
So the plan is to actually take these tetrons and essentially multiply them um on chips.
00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:57.200
So going from like one Tetron to a thousand Tetron to a million Tetron is essentially a problem of of replicating uh of replicating them.
00:19:57.680 --> 00:20:00.079
Um so it's very interesting, right?
00:20:00.240 --> 00:20:19.519
It's it's uh what was really interesting for me or or to me, right, is the fact that it is uh for the first time that we've heard, um, and again, just we need to take it with a grain of salt, we need to see the proof and everything.
00:20:19.680 --> 00:20:26.000
It was the first time we've heard of coherence times that are into seconds, right?
00:20:26.400 --> 00:20:33.039
We were always talking about microseconds, milliseconds, things like that, right?
00:20:33.279 --> 00:20:38.720
Which by the way, are are are more than enough for for performing quantum computation.
00:20:38.880 --> 00:20:49.839
But to mind different modalities have different speeds, so but it's the first time we've heard about these these I would call them insanely long coherence times, right?
00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:56.880
Like 20 seconds as as as I said, is is is essentially an eternity.
00:21:00.400 --> 00:21:14.240
Um yeah, I wish I wish we could get I I well, I I guess I'm hoping that they'll there'll be a lot more talking now that they see this as a watershed moment, but I I I think there's a strong chance there isn't, that they stay quiet the next year.
00:21:14.640 --> 00:21:19.440
Well, the the other interesting thing was to me you mentioned DARPA, right?
00:21:19.680 --> 00:21:25.279
And um maybe it's worth mentioning that the whole DARPA program.
00:21:25.680 --> 00:21:35.039
Um I think the the actual name is the um um Defense Advanced Research Projects.
00:21:35.359 --> 00:21:44.640
Yeah, no, no, but the program that DARPA runs is the the underexplored systems for utility scale quantum computing.
00:21:45.359 --> 00:21:48.880
That's that's the the the program that it that it runs, right?
00:21:49.359 --> 00:21:58.880
And um this program has per uh uh participation like from from like some some very heavy names, right?
00:21:58.960 --> 00:21:59.680
Like the air.
00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:09.359
Force Research Laboratory, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, right?
00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:12.960
John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, and so forth.
00:22:13.119 --> 00:22:20.400
So there is a bunch of extremely smart people in there that are running the program, right?
00:22:20.960 --> 00:22:29.359
And Microsoft architecture and designs were repeatedly assessed by this, right?
00:22:29.519 --> 00:22:40.799
So it's not like, I don't know, five years ago someone was impressed, like, oh my God, you have this great idea, you're gonna build a Maiorana uh topological quantum computer, right?
00:22:41.119 --> 00:22:51.279
It they are constantly assessed, which is also an indication to me that there is some non-trivial amount of progress happening there.
00:22:51.920 --> 00:22:59.839
And and Microsoft's prepared, we and we don't talk about this too often, but Microsoft has really prepared an ecosystem for them to be the middleware.
00:23:00.079 --> 00:23:15.440
So if this works out, then suddenly Microsoft becomes one of the only vendors that's in the middle with their own stack because they got Q Sharp, they've got Azure, they've got hosted quantum already.
00:23:15.519 --> 00:23:21.680
They've they you can basically use Q Sharp to address a D-Wave system and other systems.
00:23:21.759 --> 00:23:23.759
I think Regetti's up there as well.
00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:25.440
Um and so they they've got a lot of that.
00:23:28.640 --> 00:23:28.799
Right.
00:23:28.960 --> 00:23:35.519
So they've got a lot of that covered, and it would be easy for them to just shove their system into the same model.
00:23:38.000 --> 00:23:41.279
So they've got a a big, they've got a really good play of the middleware.
00:23:41.359 --> 00:23:47.440
Now, when when that first happened, I think I remember saying to you, I think that was a hedge to some extent.
00:23:47.599 --> 00:23:59.359
It makes sense to do if they're going to be successful, but even if they're not successful with their own modality, it still lets them play in the game and be a middleware broker and a big one, an important one.
00:23:59.519 --> 00:24:03.119
They got the cloud, they got the language and the tooling.
00:24:03.759 --> 00:24:07.759
To have the actual an actual modality of their own to host, that would be a big deal.
00:24:08.000 --> 00:24:12.880
Do you expect them to only make it available through Azure?
00:24:13.200 --> 00:24:17.119
Or would they, you think, sell machines as well eventually?
00:24:18.160 --> 00:24:20.079
I think that it's an impossible question to answer.
00:24:20.160 --> 00:24:22.400
I'm just calling for speculation.
00:24:23.039 --> 00:24:35.359
I think everything's on the table, but um remember, topological quantum computing is still a modality that requires uh pretty low temperatures.
00:24:35.599 --> 00:24:35.839
Yeah.
00:24:36.000 --> 00:24:39.519
Um so this is a modality of building stuff, right?
00:24:39.599 --> 00:24:43.759
It's uh that still requires dilution refrigerators and and stuff.
00:24:43.839 --> 00:24:46.160
So it will require pretty heavy gear.
00:24:46.480 --> 00:24:53.119
No, yeah, I'm not thinking they're gonna sell it on the Microsoft store, but IBM selling their chip and they require the same.
00:24:53.440 --> 00:24:55.440
Is it the same, it's the same temperature range, isn't it?
00:24:55.599 --> 00:24:56.799
It's millikelvin, isn't it?
00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:58.240
I yeah, it's it's low.
00:24:58.319 --> 00:24:59.279
It's very it's very low.
00:25:00.799 --> 00:25:14.480
So and and I think what they actually have as a strategy is to at the end of the day offer the business service, let's call it like that, right?
00:25:14.720 --> 00:25:19.359
Where it doesn't really matter what is the underlying hardware.
00:25:19.599 --> 00:25:42.799
Um their plan is to essentially offer the output at the other end, which is the capability of performing classes of computations that are uh, let's say, geared towards very practical problems, whether it's about material science or or or machine learning or or or things like things like that, right?
00:25:42.960 --> 00:26:11.759
So um I would be, I'm not ruling it out, but I would be surprised to see Microsoft uh selling um quantum computing machines, uh whatever the packaging would be, because I think that based on what they build, the kind of the vertical integration, right, from the uh uh lower layer, which is the actual hardware, all the way to the programming languages, the SDK, right?
00:26:12.240 --> 00:26:15.279
Um I think it suits them better to do it this way.
00:26:15.359 --> 00:26:25.119
And then remember, one of the things that they are also pioneering, which doesn't get a lot of traction, but I think it will become one of the very important aspects is hybrid.
00:26:25.920 --> 00:26:28.880
Uh and we've covered this many, many times, right?
00:26:29.279 --> 00:26:49.920
Um I certainly believe that there will be no pure quantum computer or quantum computing solution out there, because even the um, let's say ubiquitous short discussion that actually requires an efficient combination of classical computing and quantum computing.
00:26:50.079 --> 00:27:00.079
And owning the stack, right, and being one of the big players in classical computing, I think it's it's gonna provide a significant, uh a significant advantage, right?
00:27:00.799 --> 00:27:20.559
Now um the other thing that I believe we have to mention, right, also is um uh that this is still right, just to keep things real, it's a major announcement, uh but this does not announce essentially a commercially useful quantum, right?
00:27:20.880 --> 00:27:24.960
So um they proposed the prototype, right?
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:40.319
They they provided some very interesting experimental results, uh, which again still have to be reviewed, um, and we're hopefully not gonna um uh end up with another 2018 um um moments, right?
00:27:40.640 --> 00:27:44.720
But I think it's it's very encouraging.
00:27:44.960 --> 00:28:12.319
It's also encouraging the fact that they kind of changed the the future estimates previously they were put in the 2030s, and now at this uh uh uh conference that they made the announcement, they said that it's uh uh likely that a commercial version could be um available as early as 2029.
00:28:12.400 --> 00:28:15.119
And that's this was a build, I believe, right?
00:28:15.359 --> 00:28:19.839
Yeah, it was the Microsoft Build Conference, which uh was early June.
00:28:20.000 --> 00:28:20.319
Yeah.
00:28:20.559 --> 00:28:41.599
Um, so I I believe that this is also significant because publicly announcing and setting this expectation um is a bit different from many other players which are still providing the horizon of the 2030s in terms of of this of these machines.
00:28:41.839 --> 00:28:46.240
So um overall, I think this is very exciting news.
00:28:46.319 --> 00:28:47.759
I think it's positive.
00:28:48.319 --> 00:29:08.960
Um and um what what really what I really like about this is that uh we if you think about the last 12 months and we've discussed with some remarkable people, we've discussed with with with some some some remarkable um companies out there, right?
00:29:09.440 --> 00:29:16.559
Is that we are seeing significant improvement across multiple modalities.
00:29:17.200 --> 00:29:22.400
So it's not really that we have one modality that it's having a breakthrough, right?
00:29:22.799 --> 00:29:37.200
We have seen significant uh significant improvement across the the board, and um that gives me uh uh let's say I am much more optimistic than I was 12 months ago.
00:29:37.680 --> 00:29:38.799
A warm fuzzy, yeah.
00:29:39.119 --> 00:29:47.359
With yeah, with respect to we're still not there, that's that's extremely um um important to say, right?
00:29:48.000 --> 00:30:05.039
But um I I I think it's it's it's significantly we have a significantly better uh let's say uh prediction right now uh in terms of of where things are it's gonna be exciting times to come.
00:30:05.279 --> 00:30:09.920
Um so you know you and I have a long history with Microsoft.
00:30:10.160 --> 00:30:11.519
We should just definitely disclose that.
00:30:11.680 --> 00:30:20.480
You I was uh involved in their partner program and took a lot of their certifications and had NDAs for many years, 20 20 plus years.
00:30:20.640 --> 00:30:28.240
Um now I'm I'm uh one of their MVPs, as are you, and you participate also as a Microsoft regional director, which I left a few years ago.
00:30:28.400 --> 00:30:32.880
So it's not we're not like outsiders strictly, so we should disclose that a little bit.
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:38.559
But we also aren't talking to the quantum team on a regular basis, or at least I'm not.
00:30:38.720 --> 00:30:44.559
Um and so it it kind of gives us the freedom to talk about this without stepping on anything secret.
00:30:44.720 --> 00:30:47.200
I don't have any deep, dark secrets, but I'd like to.
00:30:47.359 --> 00:30:49.119
I'd like to know more about what's going on here.
00:30:49.200 --> 00:30:51.279
So hopefully we we have to just wait for everybody else.
00:30:51.440 --> 00:31:02.880
I think the 2029 announcement is aggressive, but I'm very hopeful that that means that they they figured it out and they've got their steam and they're they're gonna run with it.
00:31:02.960 --> 00:31:06.160
Um and let the let the doubters dig themselves a hole.
00:31:06.400 --> 00:31:08.000
I hope that works out.
00:31:08.160 --> 00:31:12.559
I'm sure there's others in the industry that are hoping that it's all you know just vaporware.
00:31:12.720 --> 00:31:14.240
Uh, but I guess time will tell.
00:31:14.400 --> 00:31:16.079
Uh what are other dark horses?
00:31:16.240 --> 00:31:22.960
I I I think I think um neutral ions was a bit of a dark horse five years ago when we started this podcast.
00:31:23.039 --> 00:31:23.920
We weren't talking about them.
00:31:24.000 --> 00:31:33.279
We were talking about photonics and we were talking about um superconducting qubits because of Google, uh, because of um uh IBM.
00:31:33.599 --> 00:31:37.680
Yeah, I consider them to be somebody that's kind of come out of the wings.
00:31:38.000 --> 00:31:41.279
Is there any other uh modalities you're kind of keeping an eye on?
00:31:41.440 --> 00:31:49.759
Or no, I think um I think we're seeing these um modalities maturing, right?
00:31:50.079 --> 00:31:56.720
Um neutral atoms, trapped ions, the superconducting stuff, the photonics, right?
00:31:57.279 --> 00:32:04.799
Um uh as well as the the topological, we are seeing improvements across the board, right?
00:32:04.960 --> 00:32:19.119
And I think rather than having some obscure thing as being the dark horse, I think there are aspects of these modalities, Patrick, that are we can call them like the dark horse.
00:32:19.279 --> 00:32:27.440
Like if you ask me, right, the the dark horse of photonics is or even to some extent neutral atoms is room temperature.
00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:28.400
Yes, right?
00:32:28.640 --> 00:32:34.960
It's is the fact that they don't require those insane technologies, right, to keep them.
00:32:35.200 --> 00:32:45.119
Uh on the other hand, I think the dark horse of topological quantum computing is the inner instability, which looks like it's been it's been proven.
00:32:45.279 --> 00:32:53.839
So they all have, let's say, um uh strong points, uh, but also significant weaknesses.
00:32:54.000 --> 00:32:54.319
Yeah.
00:32:54.559 --> 00:33:08.160
Um and and think it's gonna be a matter of of what is the speed at which those, let's say, um, weaknesses can be addressed um moving moving forward.
00:33:09.039 --> 00:33:14.720
The bet would be on the ones that whose weakness is more in the rearview mirror and less in the front windshield.
00:33:15.200 --> 00:33:18.559
Yeah, and the ones that can handle better error correction.
00:33:18.880 --> 00:33:20.319
I think you were that's the promise.
00:33:20.480 --> 00:33:33.119
I I think you said a very important thing at the beginning of this discussion, which is hey, uh we are really starting to see the end of the tunnel in terms of addressing the problem of error correction.
00:33:33.200 --> 00:33:40.880
I think whoever is capable of addressing it in a more efficient way, faster or sooner, right, that's gonna be.
00:33:41.119 --> 00:34:00.079
But I would also want to say at this point that I am starting to almost be like a hundred percent believer in a multi-modality featuring like photonics is definitely gonna be a part of the networking in quantum computing.
00:34:00.160 --> 00:34:08.239
I I think this is where the the history path will diverge from classical to quantum.
00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:19.519
I think at this point, based on what we've seen in the past 12 months and what we're seeing now, I think there is very likely that the world of quantum computing is gonna be shared.
00:34:19.840 --> 00:34:24.000
Are you are you saying you don't have any vacuum tube devices on your desk right now?
00:34:24.800 --> 00:34:31.920
Um well, not really I use on a regular basis.
00:34:32.480 --> 00:34:33.440
Don't mat, don't count.
00:34:34.159 --> 00:34:35.280
On a regular basis.
00:34:35.440 --> 00:34:39.360
I would dare to say almost, not almost, all my devices are transistor based.
00:34:39.679 --> 00:34:39.840
Of course.
00:34:39.920 --> 00:34:41.360
Yeah, I was making I was telling you, G.
00:34:41.920 --> 00:34:55.039
So I I I I'm starting to be uh uh uh again, uh a firm believer in multimodality because yeah, it looks like it's you have the uh uh also, right?
00:34:55.119 --> 00:34:57.440
You mentioned at some points it's a horse race.
00:34:57.519 --> 00:34:59.599
It's pretty much like in horse racing, right?
00:34:59.760 --> 00:35:05.760
There is one neck in front, and then there's another neck in front, and they're changing again.
00:35:06.000 --> 00:35:11.840
Um and I I think based on the innovation and the investment that it's being made.
00:35:12.480 --> 00:35:28.639
Well, and we've also seen that the the multimodality is a is an easy bet now when you think about sensing, because like the the we talked to that guy uh a while back about diamond vacancies, and and the sensors aren't all gonna go down one road.
00:35:28.880 --> 00:35:37.679
So I I think we're it's still gonna be a bit of a wild west west for these modalities and what they are what their niches are, what does what which thing better.
00:35:37.840 --> 00:35:40.000
Uh and so yeah, I think it'll be a much more varied.
00:35:40.480 --> 00:35:58.960
And remember, remember, Patrick, one of the things that are still not solved, and I think it's gonna be the next big thing after we have uh uh relatively stable computers is still essentially embedding problems, real-world problems, into this paradigm of computing.
00:35:59.039 --> 00:36:03.199
And I I this is an area where I don't feel we've made a lot of progress.
00:36:03.440 --> 00:36:06.400
I think AI is waiting in the wings to solve this problem, though.
00:36:06.719 --> 00:36:13.760
Yeah, but I also think that different modalities will be suitable for different classes of problems.
00:36:14.000 --> 00:36:14.159
Yeah.
00:36:14.400 --> 00:36:18.239
So there will be certain types of problems that will be easier to understand.
00:36:18.559 --> 00:36:19.360
D-Wave showed that.
00:36:19.519 --> 00:36:23.679
D-Wave made it made that clear and already gave us that example.
00:36:23.920 --> 00:36:31.119
Although they're starting to dabble in um in universal gate quantum computers as well, because the writing's on the wall.
00:36:31.199 --> 00:36:45.599
If we get uh the things they're doing well now, and again, it they made a conscious play to say we're gonna go down this path, which is a little more short-lived, but we can get we can actually get running annual recurring revenue sooner.
00:36:46.079 --> 00:36:48.159
Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly.
00:36:48.320 --> 00:36:56.239
I think it's um uh I think D-Wave was a pioneer, it's still a pioneer, right?
00:36:56.639 --> 00:37:08.400
Um, but the fact that we haven't seen a lot of of other um startups or companies going towards the adiabatic quantum computing, right?
00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:10.480
That also tells me a story.
00:37:11.920 --> 00:37:30.800
Um which which is there are certain types of problems that can be solved there, but it it it it certainly looks like that um gate-based quantum computing, right, is is the um is the area where where these things are are probably the most uh uh the most promising.
00:37:30.960 --> 00:37:31.280
Yeah.
00:37:31.599 --> 00:37:35.039
So yeah, I think it's uh something to watch.
00:37:35.599 --> 00:37:41.519
Overall, it's we're living again some very interesting times.
00:37:41.840 --> 00:37:44.239
And to my cursed.
00:37:45.760 --> 00:37:52.400
And again, this is where history also parts ways is and you've explained this multiple times, right?
00:37:53.199 --> 00:37:56.159
Uh a quantum winter is still nowhere to be seen.
00:37:56.320 --> 00:37:59.760
And and that's very likely because of the security implications, right?
00:38:00.000 --> 00:38:00.559
Yeah, agree.
00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:02.320
And and the cryptography.
00:38:02.480 --> 00:38:12.719
And it it certainly looks like the past 12 months are actually uh adding some tailwind to to these companies, right?
00:38:12.960 --> 00:38:17.519
And they they seem to be moving forward with with uh a lot of innovation.
00:38:17.679 --> 00:38:31.039
So I don't see at least in the next maybe 24 to 36 months um any um situation developing where um we could see uh slowing down in in this particular area.
00:38:31.199 --> 00:38:36.159
So it's a very exciting time to uh to be connected to this field for sure.
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:42.079
I agree, and we'll watch it closely, and I think that's I think I think we're done for today.
00:38:42.320 --> 00:38:42.960
Out of time.
00:38:43.440 --> 00:38:48.400
I mean, we could talk for a three for another couple of hours, but we have to stop somewhere.
00:38:48.559 --> 00:38:52.079
So I think this is a we've proven that to the point we started a podcast.
00:38:52.159 --> 00:38:55.920
So uh but I think we should leave it there, and we'll see everybody the next time.
00:38:56.159 --> 00:38:56.400
Yep.
00:38:56.639 --> 00:38:57.119
Bye, man.
00:38:57.360 --> 00:38:57.920
Thanks, everyone.
00:38:58.159 --> 00:38:58.320
Bye.
00:38:58.480 --> 00:38:58.960
Bye.
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