1
00:00:00,033 --> 00:00:02,369
The opinions expressed
on this program represent
2
00:00:02,369 --> 00:00:05,271
the viewpoints of individual
authors or contributors,
3
00:00:05,271 --> 00:00:12,045
and do not necessarily reflect
those of Troy University.
4
00:00:12,112 --> 00:00:14,347
This is E Conversations,
5
00:00:14,347 --> 00:00:17,784
a joint production of Troy
Trojan Vision and Emmanuel H.
6
00:00:17,817 --> 00:00:20,487
Johnson Center
for Political Economy.
7
00:00:20,487 --> 00:00:22,389
Now here's your host, Dr.
8
00:00:22,389 --> 00:00:26,726
Dan Sutter.
9
00:00:26,793 --> 00:00:27,827
Hello and welcome to E!
10
00:00:27,827 --> 00:00:29,763
Conversations.
I'm your host, Dr.
11
00:00:29,763 --> 00:00:31,331
Dan Sutter of the Johnson Center
12
00:00:31,331 --> 00:00:34,134
for Political Economy
at Troy University.
13
00:00:34,134 --> 00:00:37,537
Karl Marx is
one of the most well-known
14
00:00:37,637 --> 00:00:42,075
scholars of recent years
of recent centuries, actually.
15
00:00:42,342 --> 00:00:45,311
His influence can be seen today
16
00:00:45,311 --> 00:00:48,081
all across the higher education,
all across many different
17
00:00:48,081 --> 00:00:51,985
fields of higher education
in the academy.
18
00:00:52,052 --> 00:00:54,921
And we can hear echoes
of his theory
19
00:00:54,921 --> 00:00:58,358
of exploitation
in critical race theory,
20
00:00:58,458 --> 00:01:02,328
a subject that's gotten
a lot of attention recently.
21
00:01:02,395 --> 00:01:06,800
And yet when he wrote it
as an economist, when he wrote
22
00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,637
his work, did not immediately
change the economics or fashion.
23
00:01:10,637 --> 00:01:15,008
In fact, it never really had a
tremendous impact on economics.
24
00:01:15,108 --> 00:01:19,112
And his work seemed
to be fading into obscurity
25
00:01:19,212 --> 00:01:22,148
after his death in the 1880s.
26
00:01:22,148 --> 00:01:26,786
Until that until the Russian
Revolution came along in 1917,
27
00:01:26,986 --> 00:01:30,957
when some devotees of Marx,
led by Vladimir
28
00:01:31,024 --> 00:01:34,160
Lenin, managed to seize power
and was at the time
29
00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:35,895
the largest nation in the world
30
00:01:35,895 --> 00:01:38,865
and one of the most
powerful nations in the world.
31
00:01:38,865 --> 00:01:41,101
And they set up a
32
00:01:41,201 --> 00:01:43,803
Soviet who set up a socialist
33
00:01:43,803 --> 00:01:48,241
communist nation
inspired by Marx and Marx's
34
00:01:48,241 --> 00:01:52,145
writings and brought great
scholarly attention.
35
00:01:52,145 --> 00:01:54,414
All of a sudden back to Marx.
36
00:01:54,414 --> 00:01:57,317
So was Marx, really
a great scholar
37
00:01:57,317 --> 00:02:01,554
whose ideas were so powerful
that they should surely be
38
00:02:01,754 --> 00:02:05,125
enlightening,
enlightening insight all across
39
00:02:05,191 --> 00:02:07,460
the social sciences today?
40
00:02:07,460 --> 00:02:11,731
Or was his popularity
as surge in popularity
41
00:02:11,731 --> 00:02:15,235
really sort of more a product
of this historical accident
42
00:02:15,301 --> 00:02:18,705
of some of his followers
actually
43
00:02:18,771 --> 00:02:21,574
staging a successful revolution?
44
00:02:21,574 --> 00:02:24,744
Here to talk about his research
on this topic today is Dr.
45
00:02:24,744 --> 00:02:28,581
Phil Magnus of the American
Institute for Economic Research.
46
00:02:28,648 --> 00:02:31,151
Dr. Magnus earned a Ph.D.
47
00:02:31,151 --> 00:02:34,154
in public policy
from George Mason University,
48
00:02:34,220 --> 00:02:36,856
and he's written numerous
articles
49
00:02:36,856 --> 00:02:40,527
and books
as all of his previous books
50
00:02:40,593 --> 00:02:44,998
Cracks in the Ivory Tower
and the 1619 Project, a critique
51
00:02:45,064 --> 00:02:47,800
he is discussed about with me
on this show.
52
00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,836
So welcome back to the show.
53
00:02:49,836 --> 00:02:52,572
PHIL Yeah, thanks for having me.
54
00:02:52,572 --> 00:02:54,407
So let's get into this.
55
00:02:54,407 --> 00:02:57,377
Tell us a little bit about first
the toss,
56
00:02:57,377 --> 00:03:00,713
a little bit about Marx
in his most famous writings.
57
00:03:00,713 --> 00:03:03,082
Obviously does capital amongst
58
00:03:03,082 --> 00:03:04,951
economists is one
we're familiar with.
59
00:03:04,951 --> 00:03:10,256
And then the Communist Manifesto
and some of the measures
60
00:03:10,256 --> 00:03:12,225
by which we can see
how much of it
61
00:03:12,225 --> 00:03:15,228
how much influence
Marx has today.
62
00:03:15,228 --> 00:03:16,062
Right.
63
00:03:16,062 --> 00:03:19,666
So Karl Marx is a
an economist and philosopher
64
00:03:19,666 --> 00:03:23,336
in the 19th century,
dies in 1883
65
00:03:23,436 --> 00:03:26,206
and published
several works in his lifetime
66
00:03:26,206 --> 00:03:27,840
and even more after
67
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,842
his life was edited
by his colleague
68
00:03:29,842 --> 00:03:31,578
Friedrich Engels,
and put into print
69
00:03:31,578 --> 00:03:34,147
and then several subsequent
successors.
70
00:03:34,147 --> 00:03:37,150
So voluminous writer, but
71
00:03:37,250 --> 00:03:40,820
he was not terribly influential
in his own day.
72
00:03:40,887 --> 00:03:44,657
He was known among the radical
left of labor activism
73
00:03:44,724 --> 00:03:48,294
as one socialist theorist,
but he was also someone
74
00:03:48,294 --> 00:03:51,130
that was very prone to fighting
with other socialists.
75
00:03:51,130 --> 00:03:55,435
So he lived in a very schismatic
world on the very periphery
76
00:03:55,568 --> 00:03:58,271
of the extreme
left of the political spectrum.
77
00:03:58,271 --> 00:03:59,839
Now, where is he today?
78
00:03:59,839 --> 00:04:02,275
Marx is all over the place
in universities.
79
00:04:02,275 --> 00:04:03,743
He's one of the most frequently
80
00:04:03,743 --> 00:04:07,480
assigned authors in college
classrooms.
81
00:04:07,547 --> 00:04:08,014
A communist
82
00:04:08,014 --> 00:04:11,017
manifesto is always near
the top of the list
83
00:04:11,017 --> 00:04:12,018
of philosophical works.
84
00:04:12,018 --> 00:04:12,685
It's up there,
85
00:04:12,685 --> 00:04:14,487
usually above Plato's Republic,
86
00:04:14,487 --> 00:04:17,023
and then nothing else even comes
close to it.
87
00:04:17,023 --> 00:04:21,361
He's also one of the most
influential figures that cited
88
00:04:21,461 --> 00:04:25,398
in the humanities and certain
social sciences of all time.
89
00:04:25,398 --> 00:04:28,968
He has a like a massive citation
index
90
00:04:28,968 --> 00:04:32,338
if you look in several fields
outside of economics.
91
00:04:32,505 --> 00:04:35,141
So he's a big deal today.
92
00:04:35,208 --> 00:04:37,176
But although his
93
00:04:37,176 --> 00:04:40,079
his work is very influential
now, you know,
94
00:04:40,079 --> 00:04:44,951
you said he passed away in 1883
and in the decades after that,
95
00:04:44,951 --> 00:04:46,119
it seemed like
96
00:04:46,119 --> 00:04:49,122
there's pretty good evidence
his work was sort of
97
00:04:49,155 --> 00:04:52,592
disappearing
into obscurity, his cap.
98
00:04:52,825 --> 00:04:55,428
We can talk a little bit
about why why that was.
99
00:04:55,428 --> 00:04:56,896
And one thing, as you know,
100
00:04:56,896 --> 00:04:57,497
is he
101
00:04:57,497 --> 00:04:59,399
although he's had this
tremendous impact
102
00:04:59,399 --> 00:05:02,535
across the humanities and social
sciences, he's never had
103
00:05:02,535 --> 00:05:05,672
a tremendous impact
in economics.
104
00:05:05,672 --> 00:05:07,774
So let's talk about
both of these.
105
00:05:07,774 --> 00:05:12,345
Why were economists
apparently not as as taken
106
00:05:12,345 --> 00:05:16,115
with his work as some others?
107
00:05:16,215 --> 00:05:17,850
Yes. So his most famous book,
108
00:05:17,850 --> 00:05:20,820
Das Kapital,
is published in 1867.
109
00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:21,587
And if you
110
00:05:21,587 --> 00:05:23,056
if you go through the book,
it lays out
111
00:05:23,056 --> 00:05:25,458
a theoretical argument
that's built on something
112
00:05:25,458 --> 00:05:27,927
we refer to as the labor
theory of value.
113
00:05:27,927 --> 00:05:30,763
Labor performed to improve
something is what instills it
114
00:05:30,763 --> 00:05:31,864
with value.
115
00:05:31,864 --> 00:05:34,067
And he takes this
and he runs with it.
116
00:05:34,067 --> 00:05:35,201
So Marx
117
00:05:35,201 --> 00:05:37,804
begins with the labor theory
of value and originate with him.
118
00:05:37,804 --> 00:05:38,538
This had been something
119
00:05:38,538 --> 00:05:40,907
economists have been talking
about for centuries,
120
00:05:40,907 --> 00:05:44,444
but he absorbs
that is his starting point.
121
00:05:44,510 --> 00:05:47,513
And he basically points out,
he says that,
122
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,317
you know, laborers
earn a certain level in income.
123
00:05:51,384 --> 00:05:54,387
But we also know that
the owners of the factories sell
124
00:05:54,387 --> 00:05:56,956
the goods that they produce
at a much higher level.
125
00:05:56,956 --> 00:05:58,324
And if you take the difference
between
126
00:05:58,324 --> 00:06:00,159
the two, it's often quite large.
127
00:06:00,159 --> 00:06:02,862
And he refers to this
as surplus value.
128
00:06:02,862 --> 00:06:04,764
And he says surplus
value is basically
129
00:06:04,764 --> 00:06:08,167
ill gotten gains that the owners
of capital, the factory owners
130
00:06:08,267 --> 00:06:11,237
have taken away from the people
that actually perform the work.
131
00:06:11,437 --> 00:06:14,440
And basically derives the theory
of exploitation from this.
132
00:06:14,474 --> 00:06:17,944
And this is the mechanism that
drives Marxian theory forward.
133
00:06:17,944 --> 00:06:20,079
Eventually, revolution
comes among
134
00:06:20,079 --> 00:06:24,250
the proletarian worker class
as a result of being exploited,
135
00:06:24,250 --> 00:06:27,253
having the fruits of their labor
taken away from them.
136
00:06:27,253 --> 00:06:29,856
So the goal of the socialist
revolution is to rise up, seize
137
00:06:29,856 --> 00:06:33,059
the means of production,
and reclaim that surplus value.
138
00:06:33,259 --> 00:06:36,129
So this entire system is
built on the labor theory about,
139
00:06:36,129 --> 00:06:38,498
you know,
this was published in 1867,
140
00:06:38,498 --> 00:06:41,067
but we also know
from the history of economics
141
00:06:41,067 --> 00:06:43,169
that in 1871
142
00:06:43,169 --> 00:06:46,873
an event occurs we now refer to
as the marginal revolution.
143
00:06:46,939 --> 00:06:50,576
There was a series
of simultaneous discoveries
144
00:06:50,676 --> 00:06:54,480
by Karl Maier in Austria
and William Stanley Jevons
145
00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:55,415
in the U.K.,
146
00:06:55,415 --> 00:06:56,549
where they came up with a
147
00:06:56,549 --> 00:06:59,652
an alternative theory of value
that actually had empirical
148
00:06:59,652 --> 00:07:01,287
validation for it.
149
00:07:01,287 --> 00:07:03,990
This is the subjective
or marginal theory of value.
150
00:07:03,990 --> 00:07:05,658
Value does not derive
151
00:07:05,658 --> 00:07:08,027
based on the work
performed on something it value.
152
00:07:08,027 --> 00:07:11,164
The value derives
at the moment of the exchange
153
00:07:11,164 --> 00:07:13,933
relative to the next unit
that could be exchanged
154
00:07:13,933 --> 00:07:16,836
and is deeply, deeply influenced
by the subjective
155
00:07:16,836 --> 00:07:19,839
preferences of the two parties
to the exchange.
156
00:07:19,906 --> 00:07:23,176
So the labor theory of value
is basically discarded
157
00:07:23,443 --> 00:07:26,646
only four years after
Marx writes this magnum opus
158
00:07:26,879 --> 00:07:28,748
built around the labor
theory of value.
159
00:07:28,748 --> 00:07:32,118
What this means is, in
the decades following his death,
160
00:07:32,185 --> 00:07:34,020
all economists
that engage with them,
161
00:07:34,020 --> 00:07:35,855
they read his work
and they're basically saying
162
00:07:35,855 --> 00:07:37,690
this is an obsolete theory.
163
00:07:37,690 --> 00:07:38,357
It's wrong.
164
00:07:38,357 --> 00:07:41,360
It's built around
an erroneous theory of value.
165
00:07:41,594 --> 00:07:42,929
We've since moved beyond that.
166
00:07:42,929 --> 00:07:44,764
So why are we paying attention
to it?
167
00:07:44,764 --> 00:07:46,065
Right. Yeah.
168
00:07:46,065 --> 00:07:50,303
So then then we have obviously,
169
00:07:50,369 --> 00:07:53,372
we have the Russian Revolution
come along and so
170
00:07:53,573 --> 00:07:56,409
and so it is possible
to think about like, well,
171
00:07:56,409 --> 00:07:57,944
maybe that had some impact
172
00:07:57,944 --> 00:08:02,248
because clearly Lenin,
it was had read and studied Marx
173
00:08:02,348 --> 00:08:05,952
and was being motivated
by Marxist thinking.
174
00:08:06,018 --> 00:08:10,256
And so you've investigated this
with a paper that's now
175
00:08:10,356 --> 00:08:12,325
been published in a very
176
00:08:12,325 --> 00:08:14,727
in a truly leading
economic journal,
177
00:08:14,727 --> 00:08:16,429
the Journal of
Political Economy.
178
00:08:16,429 --> 00:08:18,798
So tell us a little bit
about this.
179
00:08:18,798 --> 00:08:19,499
The paper,
180
00:08:19,499 --> 00:08:22,068
this is your coauthor,
and then then we'll get into
181
00:08:22,068 --> 00:08:25,938
how you went about trying
to test this idea that maybe
182
00:08:26,205 --> 00:08:28,741
it was the Russian Revolution
and not the power.
183
00:08:28,741 --> 00:08:32,278
And inside of Marx's ideas
that have led them
184
00:08:32,278 --> 00:08:35,281
to be such a
well known scholar today.
185
00:08:35,515 --> 00:08:35,815
Exactly.
186
00:08:35,815 --> 00:08:39,218
So this paper basically began
with a conversation
187
00:08:39,218 --> 00:08:40,686
between myself and my coauthor,
188
00:08:40,686 --> 00:08:43,689
Michael Mikovits
at Northwood University.
189
00:08:43,756 --> 00:08:48,060
And we were looking
at some data, some statistics
190
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:49,762
using the Google
Ingram database,
191
00:08:49,762 --> 00:08:52,164
and we get into a little bit
of what that entails.
192
00:08:52,164 --> 00:08:54,834
But we noticed
a very interesting,
193
00:08:54,834 --> 00:08:58,838
just observational trend that
Marx's name is not mentioned
194
00:08:58,838 --> 00:09:01,674
very often in printed works
195
00:09:01,741 --> 00:09:02,675
in his lifetime.
196
00:09:02,675 --> 00:09:05,678
Certainly he's he's
a relatively obscure figure.
197
00:09:05,778 --> 00:09:07,914
Maybe other socialists
are referring to them.
198
00:09:07,914 --> 00:09:09,081
There are socialist pamphlets
199
00:09:09,081 --> 00:09:11,250
that critique
and engage with him.
200
00:09:11,250 --> 00:09:13,653
And then
there are a few economists that
201
00:09:13,653 --> 00:09:17,189
basically attack him for having
an incorrect theory of value.
202
00:09:17,223 --> 00:09:18,858
But that's about it.
203
00:09:18,858 --> 00:09:21,561
And this period
lasts from roughly
204
00:09:21,561 --> 00:09:24,964
his lifetime
until the early 19 tens.
205
00:09:25,064 --> 00:09:27,733
And then all of a sudden,
starting in 1917,
206
00:09:27,733 --> 00:09:30,836
you see references to Marx
skyrocket.
207
00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:32,738
They're everywhere.
208
00:09:32,738 --> 00:09:35,808
They're in contemporary
newspapers and books.
209
00:09:36,042 --> 00:09:38,177
They spill over
into academic works.
210
00:09:38,177 --> 00:09:40,713
And, you know, here
we are a century later.
211
00:09:40,713 --> 00:09:45,051
Marx is one of the most cited
figures in all of human history.
212
00:09:45,117 --> 00:09:48,287
So it's a very interesting trend
that he he hovers
213
00:09:48,287 --> 00:09:51,624
at a very low level of reference
in print material
214
00:09:51,691 --> 00:09:53,926
for basically his death
until 1916.
215
00:09:53,926 --> 00:09:55,695
And then overnight he takes off.
216
00:09:55,695 --> 00:09:58,130
So we got this
theory of the theory
217
00:09:58,130 --> 00:09:59,131
was that basically
218
00:09:59,131 --> 00:10:01,968
the Soviet Union
must have put Marx on the map.
219
00:10:01,968 --> 00:10:04,003
And this isn't
an original theory to us.
220
00:10:04,003 --> 00:10:06,639
People
have in qualitative research,
221
00:10:06,639 --> 00:10:09,575
observed this before
across the political spectrum.
222
00:10:09,575 --> 00:10:12,545
So the Austrian economists,
Ludwig von Mises, mentions it
223
00:10:12,545 --> 00:10:15,114
in a series of lectures
he gave in the 1940s.
224
00:10:15,114 --> 00:10:16,749
But also on
the other end of the spectrum,
225
00:10:16,749 --> 00:10:19,151
the Marxist historian
Eric Hobsbawm
226
00:10:19,151 --> 00:10:19,986
comes up with the same
227
00:10:19,986 --> 00:10:23,456
theory, says that Marx was
relatively unknown in his day,
228
00:10:23,623 --> 00:10:26,926
and it was really the Soviet
Union that put him on the map.
229
00:10:26,993 --> 00:10:30,396
So several
other scholars have posited
230
00:10:30,396 --> 00:10:33,699
this is an explanation of why
Marx is so prominent today.
231
00:10:33,866 --> 00:10:37,770
It's he gained
basically the credibility boost
232
00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:39,772
that came from the Soviet Union
233
00:10:39,772 --> 00:10:42,375
successfully
executing a revolution
234
00:10:42,375 --> 00:10:46,445
made him a salient figure in the
intellectual scene as well.
235
00:10:46,612 --> 00:10:47,680
And basically all that
236
00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:49,915
we've seen on Marxist
scholarship since then
237
00:10:49,915 --> 00:10:51,584
is built on that boost,
238
00:10:51,584 --> 00:10:54,553
not on things that
he did in his own lifetime.
239
00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:56,288
Here's a table from your with
240
00:10:56,288 --> 00:10:58,791
some data from your paper
showing the sort of
241
00:10:58,791 --> 00:11:02,428
your point of like Marx was not
highly regarded this ism
242
00:11:02,428 --> 00:11:06,098
Journal Journal article mentions
of some different economists
243
00:11:06,165 --> 00:11:08,267
and as we can see they're like
244
00:11:08,267 --> 00:11:10,536
Marx was
certainly not out in the lead
245
00:11:10,536 --> 00:11:13,472
you know relative to Adam
Smith he's well we hear
246
00:11:13,472 --> 00:11:18,244
Adam Smith being the founder
of economics and
247
00:11:18,344 --> 00:11:20,446
one of his contemporaries
would have been Henry George.
248
00:11:20,446 --> 00:11:23,416
And you see he's referenced
about equal to Henry George.
249
00:11:23,416 --> 00:11:27,019
And my you know, although we
as economists know who
250
00:11:27,019 --> 00:11:30,156
Henry George is probably a name
that completely is
251
00:11:30,156 --> 00:11:33,893
is not known by many Americans
today.
252
00:11:33,959 --> 00:11:34,927
Exactly. Exactly.
253
00:11:34,927 --> 00:11:37,930
And George was probably
the closest competitor to Marx
254
00:11:38,130 --> 00:11:39,665
on that list,
which is one of the reasons
255
00:11:39,665 --> 00:11:41,067
why we looked at him.
256
00:11:41,067 --> 00:11:44,270
You know, Henry
George was an ascendant
257
00:11:44,270 --> 00:11:46,205
figure in the late 19th century,
258
00:11:46,205 --> 00:11:48,808
and he actually ends up in
some of our other metrics.
259
00:11:48,808 --> 00:11:52,378
He's actually more famous
than Marx in Marx's lifetime.
260
00:11:52,445 --> 00:11:54,947
But today he's considered
just a pretty obscure
261
00:11:54,947 --> 00:11:58,150
figure that has a very niche
history of economic thought.
262
00:11:58,150 --> 00:12:01,754
Following in a few schools
of thought that follow him.
263
00:12:01,754 --> 00:12:02,988
But they're not anywhere near
264
00:12:02,988 --> 00:12:04,590
the mainstream
of the conversation.
265
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:05,157
And then the other thing
266
00:12:05,157 --> 00:12:08,160
we noticed as we started
to look across academic journals
267
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:09,929
there and Marx is
268
00:12:09,929 --> 00:12:13,632
mentioned in certain journals,
but it's almost all concentrated
269
00:12:13,699 --> 00:12:15,968
in things
like the Economic Journal
270
00:12:15,968 --> 00:12:20,239
in the quarterly Journal
of Economics, in journals
271
00:12:20,239 --> 00:12:24,376
that had a focus on questions
like the theory of value
272
00:12:24,376 --> 00:12:27,680
in the labor
theory of value. And these were
273
00:12:27,747 --> 00:12:28,647
venues that were
274
00:12:28,647 --> 00:12:31,650
engaging in critiquing
Karl Marx.
275
00:12:31,817 --> 00:12:34,353
Whereas if you look at things
like the Journal of Education,
276
00:12:34,353 --> 00:12:35,621
he's almost nonexistent there.
277
00:12:35,621 --> 00:12:37,823
A journal of law,
278
00:12:37,823 --> 00:12:40,559
very limited
historical presence,
279
00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,363
very limited presence
in in literature, in English.
280
00:12:44,430 --> 00:12:44,730
And yet
281
00:12:44,730 --> 00:12:47,733
these are the fields today
where Marx is cited everywhere,
282
00:12:47,900 --> 00:12:50,202
and he's almost never cited
in the economics journals.
283
00:12:50,202 --> 00:12:51,737
So we've kind of reversed
284
00:12:51,737 --> 00:12:54,707
the entire pattern
that shown by this table.
285
00:12:54,974 --> 00:12:56,876
So let's get into
some of the details
286
00:12:56,876 --> 00:12:59,378
of how you went
about trying to test this,
287
00:12:59,378 --> 00:13:02,815
because it begins you
mentioned Google and Graham's.
288
00:13:03,015 --> 00:13:06,685
But explain for us
what that is and how this is a
289
00:13:06,685 --> 00:13:10,556
great new tool that you can
that we can use in research now.
290
00:13:10,656 --> 00:13:11,323
Yeah.
291
00:13:11,323 --> 00:13:14,660
So Google
very famously has scanned
292
00:13:14,660 --> 00:13:18,097
entire libraries
of major universities
293
00:13:18,197 --> 00:13:21,767
and put them into an online
searchable text index.
294
00:13:21,834 --> 00:13:22,668
Now, you can't get
295
00:13:22,668 --> 00:13:25,671
full access to them with some
or copyright still, but
296
00:13:25,905 --> 00:13:29,909
their goal is to text scan
297
00:13:30,009 --> 00:13:32,878
basically
the entirety of human knowledge.
298
00:13:32,878 --> 00:13:34,346
And they started with English
299
00:13:34,346 --> 00:13:36,649
language sources,
but they've since expanded to
300
00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:38,851
about a dozen other languages.
301
00:13:38,851 --> 00:13:41,253
The most recent update in 2019.
302
00:13:41,253 --> 00:13:43,055
There are some estimates
that say
303
00:13:43,055 --> 00:13:46,458
in the neighborhood of ten,
maybe even 20% of all books ever
304
00:13:46,525 --> 00:13:47,693
that have ever been written
305
00:13:47,693 --> 00:13:48,561
and published
306
00:13:48,561 --> 00:13:51,597
have now been scanned in
some form or another by Google.
307
00:13:51,831 --> 00:13:53,966
And what Google does
with engrams
308
00:13:53,966 --> 00:13:58,838
is they basically set up a
an online tool
309
00:13:58,938 --> 00:14:00,372
where you can search
310
00:14:00,372 --> 00:14:05,244
any name or phrase or word
or group of words together.
311
00:14:05,311 --> 00:14:08,747
And it will calculate
how many times those phrases
312
00:14:08,747 --> 00:14:11,550
or words or names appear
313
00:14:11,550 --> 00:14:14,620
in a given set of text relative
to all other books
314
00:14:14,620 --> 00:14:16,522
that they've scanned
for that year.
315
00:14:16,522 --> 00:14:18,257
So you can get
if you search the name
316
00:14:18,257 --> 00:14:20,626
Karl Marx,
it'll give you basically
317
00:14:20,626 --> 00:14:21,961
the equivalent of a percentage
318
00:14:21,961 --> 00:14:22,795
of how many
319
00:14:22,795 --> 00:14:25,397
times Marx is mentioned relative
to all the books
320
00:14:25,397 --> 00:14:26,699
that they've scanned
for that year.
321
00:14:26,699 --> 00:14:28,033
And you can do this
with any name,
322
00:14:28,033 --> 00:14:30,769
any phrase, any wording,
and you can start
323
00:14:30,769 --> 00:14:33,772
to see the patterns
as they change over time.
324
00:14:33,873 --> 00:14:35,741
So it became
a really interesting tool
325
00:14:35,741 --> 00:14:37,743
because we observed
one of the first things we did
326
00:14:37,743 --> 00:14:39,144
when we embarked on this project
327
00:14:39,144 --> 00:14:43,515
is we observe that spike
in 1917 around Karl Marx.
328
00:14:43,582 --> 00:14:43,849
Yeah.
329
00:14:43,849 --> 00:14:47,086
So we have this up there now
and if you're looking at this,
330
00:14:47,152 --> 00:14:48,087
we have two lines there.
331
00:14:48,087 --> 00:14:49,889
But right now
what we're focusing in
332
00:14:49,889 --> 00:14:53,859
is the solid line because
that sets the actual number of
333
00:14:53,926 --> 00:14:56,929
citations to Marx from this
Google and Grams.
334
00:14:56,962 --> 00:14:57,830
And you see why
335
00:14:57,830 --> 00:14:59,999
maybe it was trending up
a little bit,
336
00:14:59,999 --> 00:15:04,670
a little bit higher in the years
before 1970 than
337
00:15:04,737 --> 00:15:06,205
it is back to the 1880s.
338
00:15:06,205 --> 00:15:08,540
But there is a huge jump there.
339
00:15:08,540 --> 00:15:13,245
And so this certainly is see
you see it there in the data.
340
00:15:13,312 --> 00:15:16,215
But as economists,
especially when we go
341
00:15:16,215 --> 00:15:17,616
about trying to do our research,
342
00:15:17,616 --> 00:15:20,619
even if you see
something in the data,
343
00:15:20,819 --> 00:15:23,656
we have to be skeptical
and you have to try
344
00:15:23,656 --> 00:15:26,659
to ask the question of,
well, could it have been
345
00:15:26,926 --> 00:15:29,028
you know, could have happened
for some other reason?
346
00:15:29,028 --> 00:15:30,496
And and one thing
you could look at
347
00:15:30,496 --> 00:15:33,666
or particularly or wonder is,
was there something that drove
348
00:15:33,766 --> 00:15:34,900
a lot of different
349
00:15:34,900 --> 00:15:38,904
authors to be cited, a lot more
than, say, after 1917,
350
00:15:39,138 --> 00:15:39,538
you know,
351
00:15:39,538 --> 00:15:41,173
the World War that was ending
352
00:15:41,173 --> 00:15:43,175
and maybe people
were writing a lot
353
00:15:43,175 --> 00:15:45,377
about what the postwar world
should be like.
354
00:15:45,377 --> 00:15:48,380
And so maybe lots of maybe
lots of other authors
355
00:15:48,414 --> 00:15:50,215
started to get
a lot more mentioned or,
356
00:15:50,215 --> 00:15:52,151
you know, maybe
libraries became more efficient
357
00:15:52,151 --> 00:15:53,619
or or whatever it might be.
358
00:15:53,619 --> 00:15:55,454
There
could be other explanations.
359
00:15:55,454 --> 00:15:59,625
And so to try to explore
this further, you use a strong
360
00:15:59,625 --> 00:16:03,429
empirical technique that's been
relatively recently devised
361
00:16:03,429 --> 00:16:06,699
by economists and other
social scientists to study this.
362
00:16:06,765 --> 00:16:08,033
It's called synthetic control.
363
00:16:08,033 --> 00:16:11,337
So tell us a little
about what's involved with that.
364
00:16:11,437 --> 00:16:15,140
Yeah, so synthetic control, it's
basically a way of matching
365
00:16:15,174 --> 00:16:18,377
trendlines up until a point,
a treatment date.
366
00:16:18,377 --> 00:16:21,313
So our treatment date is built
around this hypothesis
367
00:16:21,313 --> 00:16:23,749
that the Soviet Union
puts Marx on the map.
368
00:16:23,749 --> 00:16:26,251
It causes
a huge spike in his citations.
369
00:16:26,251 --> 00:16:29,755
And we see that visibly
in the in Graham data for Marx.
370
00:16:29,822 --> 00:16:31,156
But to test it,
we also going to look
371
00:16:31,156 --> 00:16:32,558
at the counterfactuals
like you mentioned.
372
00:16:32,558 --> 00:16:34,360
Is there something else
going on?
373
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,696
So what we did is we data
scraped the engram database
374
00:16:37,696 --> 00:16:41,533
off of Google
and put together a list of 225
375
00:16:41,533 --> 00:16:44,703
other authors that were either
contemporaries or Mark.
376
00:16:44,703 --> 00:16:45,504
So basically
377
00:16:45,504 --> 00:16:47,639
writing at the same time as him
378
00:16:47,639 --> 00:16:49,575
to and then anyone
earlier than that.
379
00:16:49,575 --> 00:16:51,310
So we go all the way back
to what the ancient world
380
00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:55,047
with Plato and Aristotle and
thinkers like that with names
381
00:16:55,047 --> 00:16:58,417
that are basically considered
part of the intellectual canon.
382
00:16:58,517 --> 00:17:00,285
And then we also augmented that
383
00:17:00,285 --> 00:17:02,621
with looking at other socialist
figures.
384
00:17:02,621 --> 00:17:05,657
So people that were contemporary
debaters of Marx,
385
00:17:05,657 --> 00:17:07,926
that had competing camps
in the socialist world,
386
00:17:07,926 --> 00:17:10,329
they may have been pretty
obscure themselves,
387
00:17:10,329 --> 00:17:12,197
kind of like Marx,
but they were trying a fighting.
388
00:17:12,197 --> 00:17:13,332
It out to be
389
00:17:13,332 --> 00:17:16,735
the leader of the socialist
movement in Marx's lifetime.
390
00:17:16,835 --> 00:17:19,838
So we put together
this database, 225 names,
391
00:17:19,972 --> 00:17:22,875
plus Karl Marx of all their year
we engrams.
392
00:17:22,875 --> 00:17:25,577
And what synthetic control does
is it basically runs
393
00:17:25,577 --> 00:17:26,945
a computer algorithm
394
00:17:26,945 --> 00:17:30,015
and it tries to match
the other authors
395
00:17:30,015 --> 00:17:34,987
in that database to Karl Marx
prior to 1917, for every year
396
00:17:35,087 --> 00:17:39,258
from when we started synthetic
control in 1878 to 1916,
397
00:17:39,491 --> 00:17:41,860
the computer is trying to get
the best fit
398
00:17:41,860 --> 00:17:45,130
from weighted numbers
that come out of all of those
399
00:17:45,130 --> 00:17:46,965
other 225 authors.
400
00:17:46,965 --> 00:17:48,767
And what it will do,
it will select others
401
00:17:48,767 --> 00:17:51,603
that match Karl Marx's
citation patterns
402
00:17:51,603 --> 00:17:53,272
over that period of time,
403
00:17:53,272 --> 00:17:57,609
and it eventually generates
a fit that we can subject to
404
00:17:57,676 --> 00:17:59,244
all sorts of testing.
405
00:17:59,244 --> 00:18:01,246
We can look for statistical
significance
406
00:18:01,246 --> 00:18:04,249
in what we're trying to detect
is what would happen
407
00:18:04,450 --> 00:18:07,920
if this supposed positive event,
this treatment,
408
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:12,357
this 1917 event had never
happened, or what if Lenin's
409
00:18:12,458 --> 00:18:14,359
attempt at revolution
had been quashed
410
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,695
and then he faded away
into obscurity?
411
00:18:16,695 --> 00:18:17,896
What would have continued?
412
00:18:17,896 --> 00:18:20,732
Well, the premise here is
that Marx would have continued
413
00:18:20,732 --> 00:18:23,669
to track
all of the authors that fit
414
00:18:23,669 --> 00:18:27,106
his trendline line
the closest prior to 1917.
415
00:18:27,339 --> 00:18:29,875
And that's what gives us
the synthetic counterfactual
416
00:18:29,875 --> 00:18:31,877
that we can project
forward into the future
417
00:18:31,877 --> 00:18:35,047
using the authors that fit Marx
the closest, right?
418
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:36,715
Yeah, because the idea would be
419
00:18:36,715 --> 00:18:39,718
these people
fit Marx up until 1916.
420
00:18:39,885 --> 00:18:43,188
So whenever was they,
they were following quite long,
421
00:18:43,322 --> 00:18:46,325
but they did not have
their disciples
422
00:18:46,425 --> 00:18:48,494
take over major country
and take over a country.
423
00:18:48,494 --> 00:18:52,931
And so if you see a divergence
as emerges after that, then
424
00:18:52,998 --> 00:18:56,401
we can at least have some
confidence to say that it was
425
00:18:56,401 --> 00:19:00,672
that that event, as opposed to
other economic or social forces,
426
00:19:00,739 --> 00:19:01,840
that that was causing it.
427
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,376
And if you look at this graph
here,
428
00:19:04,376 --> 00:19:06,945
we got the dashed line up there.
You can see that.
429
00:19:06,945 --> 00:19:10,249
Yeah, the the dash line
divergence significant.
430
00:19:10,449 --> 00:19:13,452
The dash
line does not take a huge jump.
431
00:19:13,552 --> 00:19:13,819
Right.
432
00:19:13,819 --> 00:19:17,756
It just continues
along at roughly the same level.
433
00:19:17,823 --> 00:19:20,459
It's,
you know, in its relatively low.
434
00:19:20,459 --> 00:19:21,460
I mean, it's basically
435
00:19:21,460 --> 00:19:24,897
hovering the same place
it was in the late 19th century.
436
00:19:24,963 --> 00:19:27,633
And some of these figures
that are composites
437
00:19:27,633 --> 00:19:30,636
of that dash line,
we do still study them together,
438
00:19:30,636 --> 00:19:33,639
but we studied them in the same
way we study Henry George
439
00:19:33,805 --> 00:19:36,041
or some very obscure socialist
figures
440
00:19:36,041 --> 00:19:37,743
in the history of economic
thought.
441
00:19:37,743 --> 00:19:38,911
It's not like Karl Marx.
442
00:19:38,911 --> 00:19:41,446
The actual citations
that have just taken off.
443
00:19:41,446 --> 00:19:44,516
Yeah. Is this is just the
444
00:19:44,583 --> 00:19:47,519
the list of the authors
that you had included in there.
445
00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:52,224
So people can sort of see
I mean, includes Lassalle was a
446
00:19:52,291 --> 00:19:55,861
socialist writer as well,
but then you include people
447
00:19:55,861 --> 00:20:00,098
like Oscar Wilde and Abraham
Lincoln, even because up
448
00:20:00,098 --> 00:20:04,036
until 1916,
those citations to their
449
00:20:04,102 --> 00:20:08,340
name, to their their work were
tracking Marx quite similarly.
450
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,408
Right? Right.
451
00:20:09,408 --> 00:20:10,742
Yeah. So it's a composite.
452
00:20:10,742 --> 00:20:13,078
All this adds up
to basically 100%.
453
00:20:13,078 --> 00:20:14,780
So these are the weights
of all the different
454
00:20:14,780 --> 00:20:16,582
figures,
their citation patterns.
455
00:20:16,582 --> 00:20:18,050
And the really interesting thing
456
00:20:18,050 --> 00:20:21,053
is that the two
biggest weights, so
457
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,223
more than a half comes from
Ferdinand Whistle a man
458
00:20:24,323 --> 00:20:28,293
a little over a quarter comes
from Johann Karl Repurchase
459
00:20:28,393 --> 00:20:32,931
and this makes sense
LaSalle and Roberta's were two
460
00:20:32,998 --> 00:20:35,667
socialist
competitors to Karl Marx.
461
00:20:35,667 --> 00:20:37,502
They were probably precursors
to what we call
462
00:20:37,502 --> 00:20:39,037
the Democratic socialist
463
00:20:39,037 --> 00:20:40,138
tradition, whereas Marx is
464
00:20:40,138 --> 00:20:42,975
the revolutionary
socialist tradition.
465
00:20:43,041 --> 00:20:45,344
If they were writing
around the same time as him
466
00:20:45,344 --> 00:20:47,145
and they had their own groups
of followers
467
00:20:47,145 --> 00:20:50,449
that clashed with the Marxists
in the socialist world.
468
00:20:50,515 --> 00:20:53,585
But the other interesting thing
is what Sal brought Burgess
469
00:20:53,585 --> 00:20:57,356
and Marx
basically all hated each other.
470
00:20:57,456 --> 00:21:00,759
They agreed on socialist
ideals of certain sorts,
471
00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:02,761
and they interacted
in the same circles.
472
00:21:02,761 --> 00:21:06,732
But regardless, his followers,
for example, accused
473
00:21:06,732 --> 00:21:07,933
Marx of plagiarizing,
474
00:21:07,933 --> 00:21:11,236
using the theory of surplus
value from Ferdinand WESSEL.
475
00:21:11,236 --> 00:21:11,703
And Marx
476
00:21:11,703 --> 00:21:16,308
had a very notoriously fractured
relationship that involved
477
00:21:16,408 --> 00:21:18,577
some some very vicious name
calling
478
00:21:18,577 --> 00:21:21,880
and denunciations of each other
as competitor socialists.
479
00:21:21,947 --> 00:21:24,616
So it makes sense that
those are the heaviest weights.
480
00:21:24,616 --> 00:21:27,052
And then the other weights
you start to see
481
00:21:27,052 --> 00:21:29,087
are other figures
from the 19th century
482
00:21:29,087 --> 00:21:34,059
that were just tracking that gen
483
00:21:34,126 --> 00:21:37,129
And then you continue
this just for, you know,
484
00:21:37,362 --> 00:21:41,166
purposes of illustration
out the president essentially.
485
00:21:41,166 --> 00:21:42,601
And you can sure enough see
486
00:21:42,601 --> 00:21:47,172
yeah this is the same parents
before I the real Karl Marx,
487
00:21:47,239 --> 00:21:50,409
starts getting cited a lot more
than the synthetic Karl Marx.
488
00:21:50,409 --> 00:21:53,445
And so, yeah, this pattern
wasn't just transitory.
489
00:21:53,445 --> 00:21:56,581
Maybe during the early Soviet
Union, it continued since.
490
00:21:56,581 --> 00:21:58,950
And of course we know that
because Marx gets
491
00:21:58,950 --> 00:22:00,552
we know Marx is cited
492
00:22:00,552 --> 00:22:03,388
a tremendous amount today, but
certainly a lot more than the
493
00:22:03,388 --> 00:22:05,824
that the control group
would have been.
494
00:22:05,824 --> 00:22:07,592
Absolutely no way.
495
00:22:07,592 --> 00:22:09,494
And you can see that,
496
00:22:09,494 --> 00:22:11,830
you know, that that composite
of all the other authors,
497
00:22:11,830 --> 00:22:14,433
it stays relatively flat
across the century.
498
00:22:14,433 --> 00:22:16,068
Now, I want to caution
against projecting
499
00:22:16,068 --> 00:22:17,769
all the way a century later,
500
00:22:17,769 --> 00:22:18,937
because there are many other
501
00:22:18,937 --> 00:22:21,173
intervening events
that occurred here.
502
00:22:21,173 --> 00:22:23,308
But we see clearly that
this is the split.
503
00:22:23,308 --> 00:22:28,647
1917 is the the point
where the two lines diverge.
504
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,950
And it's a very pronounced
divergence that just continues
505
00:22:31,950 --> 00:22:33,251
ever since then.
506
00:22:33,251 --> 00:22:33,852
Yeah.
507
00:22:33,852 --> 00:22:34,853
And, you know,
508
00:22:34,853 --> 00:22:37,456
so what we can talk about
a little bit further is like,
509
00:22:37,456 --> 00:22:38,156
you know, you do
510
00:22:38,156 --> 00:22:41,326
a number of additional tasks
because for our research,
511
00:22:41,426 --> 00:22:43,662
this this becomes
critically important.
512
00:22:43,662 --> 00:22:44,596
People
are going to want to know,
513
00:22:44,596 --> 00:22:47,132
is there anything else
that could be explaining this
514
00:22:47,132 --> 00:22:48,700
other than than
what you're alleging?
515
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,737
Because if there is, then
we don't want you to be able
516
00:22:51,737 --> 00:22:54,806
to sort of improperly
allege that
517
00:22:55,006 --> 00:22:56,775
that it was
the Russian Revolution
518
00:22:56,775 --> 00:22:58,710
when something else
could explain.
519
00:22:58,710 --> 00:23:00,512
So you do a whole bunch
of different tests
520
00:23:00,512 --> 00:23:01,780
and then you also actually test
521
00:23:01,780 --> 00:23:05,217
it, try and see if there's
a statistical significance here.
522
00:23:05,317 --> 00:23:06,017
Could you have
523
00:23:06,017 --> 00:23:09,755
seen something like this happen
just by random chance?
524
00:23:09,855 --> 00:23:12,290
So tell us briefly
about some of these other things
525
00:23:12,290 --> 00:23:14,726
that you use
to try to try to rule out
526
00:23:14,726 --> 00:23:17,229
as possible explanations?
Yeah. Yeah.
527
00:23:17,229 --> 00:23:20,966
So we ran a whole series
of robust robustness checks
528
00:23:21,032 --> 00:23:22,134
to make sure that our
529
00:23:22,134 --> 00:23:25,036
our results were in fact,
what we thought they were
530
00:23:25,036 --> 00:23:26,271
and this included.
531
00:23:26,271 --> 00:23:28,039
So one of the first ones we did
532
00:23:28,039 --> 00:23:31,543
Google Ingram's only uses books
to scan library books.
533
00:23:31,777 --> 00:23:33,645
The question comes up, Well,
what about newspapers?
534
00:23:33,645 --> 00:23:35,580
What about periodicals?
535
00:23:35,580 --> 00:23:38,450
So we set up a computer scraping
536
00:23:38,450 --> 00:23:41,753
program that scanned over
newspaper databases.
537
00:23:41,753 --> 00:23:45,557
So historical scans
of of the daily New York Times
538
00:23:45,557 --> 00:23:49,127
all the way down to the Peoria
Express News or whatever
539
00:23:49,127 --> 00:23:50,695
it happens to be.
540
00:23:50,695 --> 00:23:52,197
And we looked across
these newspaper
541
00:23:52,197 --> 00:23:54,499
databases,
scraped the same type of data
542
00:23:54,499 --> 00:23:56,067
for mentions of the name
543
00:23:56,067 --> 00:23:57,736
as a percentage
of all newspapers
544
00:23:57,736 --> 00:23:59,237
that had been scanned
for that year.
545
00:23:59,237 --> 00:24:02,507
And we replicated our study
and we independently film
546
00:24:02,507 --> 00:24:05,210
basically more or less
the same thesis.
547
00:24:05,210 --> 00:24:08,947
Marx is a relatively obscure
figure until 1917,
548
00:24:09,047 --> 00:24:11,850
and then suddenly he's
all over the newspapers.
549
00:24:11,850 --> 00:24:14,286
So there was one
check that we did.
550
00:24:14,286 --> 00:24:16,755
We also segment it up
our author.
551
00:24:16,755 --> 00:24:17,589
So we,
552
00:24:17,589 --> 00:24:21,092
we ran the test over again
by excluding other socialists,
553
00:24:21,193 --> 00:24:23,361
and then we limited
to socialist only.
554
00:24:23,361 --> 00:24:25,230
And these are two ways
to kind of triangulate,
555
00:24:25,230 --> 00:24:27,999
to figure out that yes,
indeed, Marx is pulling away
556
00:24:27,999 --> 00:24:31,436
from the rest of the pack
of other socialist thinkers.
557
00:24:31,536 --> 00:24:34,539
And that that again came up
with some very strong results.
558
00:24:34,639 --> 00:24:36,208
And then we asked the question,
559
00:24:36,208 --> 00:24:39,611
well, what happened in languages
other than English is English
560
00:24:39,611 --> 00:24:42,781
is by far the biggest part
of the Ingram database.
561
00:24:42,781 --> 00:24:43,949
It's the
562
00:24:43,949 --> 00:24:46,952
the language that most scholarly
works are published in.
563
00:24:46,985 --> 00:24:49,488
But Karl Marx
also wrote in German.
564
00:24:49,488 --> 00:24:52,557
So we looked at the German
language in grammar database
565
00:24:52,757 --> 00:24:56,094
and then subsequently the German
language newspaper database
566
00:24:56,161 --> 00:24:59,164
to figure out if the same trend
could be observable.
567
00:24:59,331 --> 00:25:01,032
And it turns out, yes, it is.
568
00:25:01,032 --> 00:25:03,468
So where do the German language
in Braille?
569
00:25:03,468 --> 00:25:05,504
He's again
following the same pattern
570
00:25:05,504 --> 00:25:09,174
of relatively low
levels of citation
571
00:25:09,241 --> 00:25:12,344
matching some fairly obscure
other socialist figures.
572
00:25:12,544 --> 00:25:15,146
1917 He skyrockets.
573
00:25:15,146 --> 00:25:18,116
He shoots up in German
language counts.
574
00:25:18,116 --> 00:25:19,985
But Germany
does something very interesting.
575
00:25:19,985 --> 00:25:20,952
Very, very different.
576
00:25:20,952 --> 00:25:25,156
This kind of validated
our theory as well as so German
577
00:25:25,156 --> 00:25:30,061
Karl Marx citations continue
to increase throughout the 1920s
578
00:25:30,161 --> 00:25:33,031
until 1932 and 1933.
579
00:25:33,031 --> 00:25:37,269
Then they suddenly reverse
and drop back down toward that
580
00:25:37,335 --> 00:25:40,338
trend line from the composite
of the other authors.
581
00:25:40,405 --> 00:25:42,741
This is very obviously explained
by one thing
582
00:25:42,741 --> 00:25:44,709
the year that Hitler
came to power
583
00:25:44,709 --> 00:25:46,111
and what did Hitler do?
584
00:25:46,111 --> 00:25:50,582
He censored opposition political
works, including Karl Marx.
585
00:25:50,682 --> 00:25:53,585
And then in 1946,
586
00:25:53,585 --> 00:25:56,521
after Germany's
been defeated in World War Two,
587
00:25:56,521 --> 00:25:58,089
there's a marxist state
588
00:25:58,089 --> 00:26:01,092
that's proclaimed in East
Germany by the Soviet Union,
589
00:26:01,126 --> 00:26:04,896
and suddenly Marxist citations
shoot off again in German.
590
00:26:04,996 --> 00:26:08,099
So we have a triple treatment
effect occurring in German
591
00:26:08,099 --> 00:26:10,969
that validates this
original observation.
592
00:26:10,969 --> 00:26:13,605
It's really the Soviet Union
that's driving it,
593
00:26:13,605 --> 00:26:16,441
and it's other political events
that have changed the trend.
594
00:26:16,441 --> 00:26:17,309
So by
595
00:26:17,309 --> 00:26:20,111
by running these other tests,
we basically tried to eliminate
596
00:26:20,111 --> 00:26:21,646
alternative hypotheses,
597
00:26:21,646 --> 00:26:25,850
alternative explanations
that might have otherwise
598
00:26:25,917 --> 00:26:28,787
told us why
Marxist citations took off.
599
00:26:28,787 --> 00:26:32,791
And we found some very robust
results that all triangulate
600
00:26:32,791 --> 00:26:34,426
and point
back to this one thing.
601
00:26:34,426 --> 00:26:35,560
It's the Russian Revolution.
602
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,395
It's the Soviet Union.
603
00:26:37,395 --> 00:26:37,696
Well,
604
00:26:37,696 --> 00:26:39,130
we just have a couple of minutes
left,
605
00:26:39,130 --> 00:26:40,065
so I want to talk a little bit
606
00:26:40,065 --> 00:26:41,533
about some
of the implications of this
607
00:26:41,533 --> 00:26:45,537
and what you mentioned earlier
and that because a couple of the
608
00:26:45,637 --> 00:26:48,773
writers in this synthetic Marx
were are they're socialists.
609
00:26:48,807 --> 00:26:51,676
And as you mentioned,
like relative
610
00:26:51,676 --> 00:26:54,913
to Marx, other socialists
writing in the 1800s
611
00:26:55,146 --> 00:26:59,217
or early 1900s were not all
advocating for a violent
612
00:26:59,284 --> 00:27:02,654
revolt, using that as a way
to bring socialism about.
613
00:27:02,721 --> 00:27:03,955
And, you know,
614
00:27:03,955 --> 00:27:06,224
that's one of the possible
if Marx had remained
615
00:27:06,224 --> 00:27:10,061
one of many different socialist
voices, you know, maybe
616
00:27:10,128 --> 00:27:13,698
proponents, people
who saw some value in from each
617
00:27:13,698 --> 00:27:16,701
according to our ability
to each according to need
618
00:27:16,768 --> 00:27:20,739
might have pursued a different,
say, more peaceful path
619
00:27:20,805 --> 00:27:22,674
to power in the 20th century.
620
00:27:22,674 --> 00:27:24,042
And maybe some of the
621
00:27:24,042 --> 00:27:25,810
the horrors
that we observed with
622
00:27:25,810 --> 00:27:30,115
communism where Marx's ideas,
wherever they were implemented,
623
00:27:30,315 --> 00:27:33,318
maybe some of that
was the history of a different.
624
00:27:33,485 --> 00:27:34,052
Absolutely.
625
00:27:34,052 --> 00:27:37,989
So one of the the effects
that we discern from our data
626
00:27:37,989 --> 00:27:39,557
and sort of these robustness
checks
627
00:27:39,557 --> 00:27:42,627
is Marx basically crowded out
all of his competitors
628
00:27:42,627 --> 00:27:44,429
in the socialist world.
629
00:27:44,429 --> 00:27:47,332
These are people
that were basically tracking him
630
00:27:47,332 --> 00:27:50,902
in similar citation patterns
prior to 1917.
631
00:27:51,136 --> 00:27:52,637
Many of them
were his contemporaries,
632
00:27:52,637 --> 00:27:55,173
and they had their own factions
debating each other.
633
00:27:55,173 --> 00:27:57,676
And, you know, it's an open
question
634
00:27:57,676 --> 00:28:00,645
Would one or more of these
other competing socialists
635
00:28:00,679 --> 00:28:03,682
have become the dominant figures
in the socialist tradition,
636
00:28:03,715 --> 00:28:05,483
had it not been for women?
637
00:28:05,483 --> 00:28:06,751
And we also know from Lenin,
638
00:28:06,751 --> 00:28:07,585
Lennon was very
639
00:28:07,585 --> 00:28:11,690
explicitly drawn to Marx because
Marx embraced revolution,
640
00:28:11,756 --> 00:28:13,491
where
some of these other thinkers
641
00:28:13,491 --> 00:28:16,061
said, That's off the table.
Violence is wrong.
642
00:28:16,061 --> 00:28:18,363
So yes,
you get a very different path.
643
00:28:18,363 --> 00:28:21,933
It could have occurred at a
win and not been successful.
644
00:28:22,033 --> 00:28:25,036
Well, thanks so much for
coming on and talk about this is
645
00:28:25,070 --> 00:28:29,007
I found this to be
a tremendously enlightening
646
00:28:29,107 --> 00:28:29,841
paper to read.
647
00:28:29,841 --> 00:28:32,544
So thanks again
so much for coming on
648
00:28:32,544 --> 00:28:34,012
and thank you all
for joining us.
649
00:28:34,012 --> 00:28:39,951
Join us again next time
for another E conversations.
650
00:28:40,018 --> 00:28:43,154
This has been e conversations,
a joint production
651
00:28:43,154 --> 00:28:45,557
of Joy Torture Division
at the Manuel H.
652
00:28:45,557 --> 00:28:48,660
Johnson Center for Political
Economy at Troy University.
00:00:00,033 --> 00:00:02,369
The opinions expressed
on this program represent
2
00:00:02,369 --> 00:00:05,271
the viewpoints of individual
authors or contributors,
3
00:00:05,271 --> 00:00:12,045
and do not necessarily reflect
those of Troy University.
4
00:00:12,112 --> 00:00:14,347
This is E Conversations,
5
00:00:14,347 --> 00:00:17,784
a joint production of Troy
Trojan Vision and Emmanuel H.
6
00:00:17,817 --> 00:00:20,487
Johnson Center
for Political Economy.
7
00:00:20,487 --> 00:00:22,389
Now here's your host, Dr.
8
00:00:22,389 --> 00:00:26,726
Dan Sutter.
9
00:00:26,793 --> 00:00:27,827
Hello and welcome to E!
10
00:00:27,827 --> 00:00:29,763
Conversations.
I'm your host, Dr.
11
00:00:29,763 --> 00:00:31,331
Dan Sutter of the Johnson Center
12
00:00:31,331 --> 00:00:34,134
for Political Economy
at Troy University.
13
00:00:34,134 --> 00:00:37,537
Karl Marx is
one of the most well-known
14
00:00:37,637 --> 00:00:42,075
scholars of recent years
of recent centuries, actually.
15
00:00:42,342 --> 00:00:45,311
His influence can be seen today
16
00:00:45,311 --> 00:00:48,081
all across the higher education,
all across many different
17
00:00:48,081 --> 00:00:51,985
fields of higher education
in the academy.
18
00:00:52,052 --> 00:00:54,921
And we can hear echoes
of his theory
19
00:00:54,921 --> 00:00:58,358
of exploitation
in critical race theory,
20
00:00:58,458 --> 00:01:02,328
a subject that's gotten
a lot of attention recently.
21
00:01:02,395 --> 00:01:06,800
And yet when he wrote it
as an economist, when he wrote
22
00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:10,637
his work, did not immediately
change the economics or fashion.
23
00:01:10,637 --> 00:01:15,008
In fact, it never really had a
tremendous impact on economics.
24
00:01:15,108 --> 00:01:19,112
And his work seemed
to be fading into obscurity
25
00:01:19,212 --> 00:01:22,148
after his death in the 1880s.
26
00:01:22,148 --> 00:01:26,786
Until that until the Russian
Revolution came along in 1917,
27
00:01:26,986 --> 00:01:30,957
when some devotees of Marx,
led by Vladimir
28
00:01:31,024 --> 00:01:34,160
Lenin, managed to seize power
and was at the time
29
00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:35,895
the largest nation in the world
30
00:01:35,895 --> 00:01:38,865
and one of the most
powerful nations in the world.
31
00:01:38,865 --> 00:01:41,101
And they set up a
32
00:01:41,201 --> 00:01:43,803
Soviet who set up a socialist
33
00:01:43,803 --> 00:01:48,241
communist nation
inspired by Marx and Marx's
34
00:01:48,241 --> 00:01:52,145
writings and brought great
scholarly attention.
35
00:01:52,145 --> 00:01:54,414
All of a sudden back to Marx.
36
00:01:54,414 --> 00:01:57,317
So was Marx, really
a great scholar
37
00:01:57,317 --> 00:02:01,554
whose ideas were so powerful
that they should surely be
38
00:02:01,754 --> 00:02:05,125
enlightening,
enlightening insight all across
39
00:02:05,191 --> 00:02:07,460
the social sciences today?
40
00:02:07,460 --> 00:02:11,731
Or was his popularity
as surge in popularity
41
00:02:11,731 --> 00:02:15,235
really sort of more a product
of this historical accident
42
00:02:15,301 --> 00:02:18,705
of some of his followers
actually
43
00:02:18,771 --> 00:02:21,574
staging a successful revolution?
44
00:02:21,574 --> 00:02:24,744
Here to talk about his research
on this topic today is Dr.
45
00:02:24,744 --> 00:02:28,581
Phil Magnus of the American
Institute for Economic Research.
46
00:02:28,648 --> 00:02:31,151
Dr. Magnus earned a Ph.D.
47
00:02:31,151 --> 00:02:34,154
in public policy
from George Mason University,
48
00:02:34,220 --> 00:02:36,856
and he's written numerous
articles
49
00:02:36,856 --> 00:02:40,527
and books
as all of his previous books
50
00:02:40,593 --> 00:02:44,998
Cracks in the Ivory Tower
and the 1619 Project, a critique
51
00:02:45,064 --> 00:02:47,800
he is discussed about with me
on this show.
52
00:02:47,800 --> 00:02:49,836
So welcome back to the show.
53
00:02:49,836 --> 00:02:52,572
PHIL Yeah, thanks for having me.
54
00:02:52,572 --> 00:02:54,407
So let's get into this.
55
00:02:54,407 --> 00:02:57,377
Tell us a little bit about first
the toss,
56
00:02:57,377 --> 00:03:00,713
a little bit about Marx
in his most famous writings.
57
00:03:00,713 --> 00:03:03,082
Obviously does capital amongst
58
00:03:03,082 --> 00:03:04,951
economists is one
we're familiar with.
59
00:03:04,951 --> 00:03:10,256
And then the Communist Manifesto
and some of the measures
60
00:03:10,256 --> 00:03:12,225
by which we can see
how much of it
61
00:03:12,225 --> 00:03:15,228
how much influence
Marx has today.
62
00:03:15,228 --> 00:03:16,062
Right.
63
00:03:16,062 --> 00:03:19,666
So Karl Marx is a
an economist and philosopher
64
00:03:19,666 --> 00:03:23,336
in the 19th century,
dies in 1883
65
00:03:23,436 --> 00:03:26,206
and published
several works in his lifetime
66
00:03:26,206 --> 00:03:27,840
and even more after
67
00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:29,842
his life was edited
by his colleague
68
00:03:29,842 --> 00:03:31,578
Friedrich Engels,
and put into print
69
00:03:31,578 --> 00:03:34,147
and then several subsequent
successors.
70
00:03:34,147 --> 00:03:37,150
So voluminous writer, but
71
00:03:37,250 --> 00:03:40,820
he was not terribly influential
in his own day.
72
00:03:40,887 --> 00:03:44,657
He was known among the radical
left of labor activism
73
00:03:44,724 --> 00:03:48,294
as one socialist theorist,
but he was also someone
74
00:03:48,294 --> 00:03:51,130
that was very prone to fighting
with other socialists.
75
00:03:51,130 --> 00:03:55,435
So he lived in a very schismatic
world on the very periphery
76
00:03:55,568 --> 00:03:58,271
of the extreme
left of the political spectrum.
77
00:03:58,271 --> 00:03:59,839
Now, where is he today?
78
00:03:59,839 --> 00:04:02,275
Marx is all over the place
in universities.
79
00:04:02,275 --> 00:04:03,743
He's one of the most frequently
80
00:04:03,743 --> 00:04:07,480
assigned authors in college
classrooms.
81
00:04:07,547 --> 00:04:08,014
A communist
82
00:04:08,014 --> 00:04:11,017
manifesto is always near
the top of the list
83
00:04:11,017 --> 00:04:12,018
of philosophical works.
84
00:04:12,018 --> 00:04:12,685
It's up there,
85
00:04:12,685 --> 00:04:14,487
usually above Plato's Republic,
86
00:04:14,487 --> 00:04:17,023
and then nothing else even comes
close to it.
87
00:04:17,023 --> 00:04:21,361
He's also one of the most
influential figures that cited
88
00:04:21,461 --> 00:04:25,398
in the humanities and certain
social sciences of all time.
89
00:04:25,398 --> 00:04:28,968
He has a like a massive citation
index
90
00:04:28,968 --> 00:04:32,338
if you look in several fields
outside of economics.
91
00:04:32,505 --> 00:04:35,141
So he's a big deal today.
92
00:04:35,208 --> 00:04:37,176
But although his
93
00:04:37,176 --> 00:04:40,079
his work is very influential
now, you know,
94
00:04:40,079 --> 00:04:44,951
you said he passed away in 1883
and in the decades after that,
95
00:04:44,951 --> 00:04:46,119
it seemed like
96
00:04:46,119 --> 00:04:49,122
there's pretty good evidence
his work was sort of
97
00:04:49,155 --> 00:04:52,592
disappearing
into obscurity, his cap.
98
00:04:52,825 --> 00:04:55,428
We can talk a little bit
about why why that was.
99
00:04:55,428 --> 00:04:56,896
And one thing, as you know,
100
00:04:56,896 --> 00:04:57,497
is he
101
00:04:57,497 --> 00:04:59,399
although he's had this
tremendous impact
102
00:04:59,399 --> 00:05:02,535
across the humanities and social
sciences, he's never had
103
00:05:02,535 --> 00:05:05,672
a tremendous impact
in economics.
104
00:05:05,672 --> 00:05:07,774
So let's talk about
both of these.
105
00:05:07,774 --> 00:05:12,345
Why were economists
apparently not as as taken
106
00:05:12,345 --> 00:05:16,115
with his work as some others?
107
00:05:16,215 --> 00:05:17,850
Yes. So his most famous book,
108
00:05:17,850 --> 00:05:20,820
Das Kapital,
is published in 1867.
109
00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:21,587
And if you
110
00:05:21,587 --> 00:05:23,056
if you go through the book,
it lays out
111
00:05:23,056 --> 00:05:25,458
a theoretical argument
that's built on something
112
00:05:25,458 --> 00:05:27,927
we refer to as the labor
theory of value.
113
00:05:27,927 --> 00:05:30,763
Labor performed to improve
something is what instills it
114
00:05:30,763 --> 00:05:31,864
with value.
115
00:05:31,864 --> 00:05:34,067
And he takes this
and he runs with it.
116
00:05:34,067 --> 00:05:35,201
So Marx
117
00:05:35,201 --> 00:05:37,804
begins with the labor theory
of value and originate with him.
118
00:05:37,804 --> 00:05:38,538
This had been something
119
00:05:38,538 --> 00:05:40,907
economists have been talking
about for centuries,
120
00:05:40,907 --> 00:05:44,444
but he absorbs
that is his starting point.
121
00:05:44,510 --> 00:05:47,513
And he basically points out,
he says that,
122
00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,317
you know, laborers
earn a certain level in income.
123
00:05:51,384 --> 00:05:54,387
But we also know that
the owners of the factories sell
124
00:05:54,387 --> 00:05:56,956
the goods that they produce
at a much higher level.
125
00:05:56,956 --> 00:05:58,324
And if you take the difference
between
126
00:05:58,324 --> 00:06:00,159
the two, it's often quite large.
127
00:06:00,159 --> 00:06:02,862
And he refers to this
as surplus value.
128
00:06:02,862 --> 00:06:04,764
And he says surplus
value is basically
129
00:06:04,764 --> 00:06:08,167
ill gotten gains that the owners
of capital, the factory owners
130
00:06:08,267 --> 00:06:11,237
have taken away from the people
that actually perform the work.
131
00:06:11,437 --> 00:06:14,440
And basically derives the theory
of exploitation from this.
132
00:06:14,474 --> 00:06:17,944
And this is the mechanism that
drives Marxian theory forward.
133
00:06:17,944 --> 00:06:20,079
Eventually, revolution
comes among
134
00:06:20,079 --> 00:06:24,250
the proletarian worker class
as a result of being exploited,
135
00:06:24,250 --> 00:06:27,253
having the fruits of their labor
taken away from them.
136
00:06:27,253 --> 00:06:29,856
So the goal of the socialist
revolution is to rise up, seize
137
00:06:29,856 --> 00:06:33,059
the means of production,
and reclaim that surplus value.
138
00:06:33,259 --> 00:06:36,129
So this entire system is
built on the labor theory about,
139
00:06:36,129 --> 00:06:38,498
you know,
this was published in 1867,
140
00:06:38,498 --> 00:06:41,067
but we also know
from the history of economics
141
00:06:41,067 --> 00:06:43,169
that in 1871
142
00:06:43,169 --> 00:06:46,873
an event occurs we now refer to
as the marginal revolution.
143
00:06:46,939 --> 00:06:50,576
There was a series
of simultaneous discoveries
144
00:06:50,676 --> 00:06:54,480
by Karl Maier in Austria
and William Stanley Jevons
145
00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:55,415
in the U.K.,
146
00:06:55,415 --> 00:06:56,549
where they came up with a
147
00:06:56,549 --> 00:06:59,652
an alternative theory of value
that actually had empirical
148
00:06:59,652 --> 00:07:01,287
validation for it.
149
00:07:01,287 --> 00:07:03,990
This is the subjective
or marginal theory of value.
150
00:07:03,990 --> 00:07:05,658
Value does not derive
151
00:07:05,658 --> 00:07:08,027
based on the work
performed on something it value.
152
00:07:08,027 --> 00:07:11,164
The value derives
at the moment of the exchange
153
00:07:11,164 --> 00:07:13,933
relative to the next unit
that could be exchanged
154
00:07:13,933 --> 00:07:16,836
and is deeply, deeply influenced
by the subjective
155
00:07:16,836 --> 00:07:19,839
preferences of the two parties
to the exchange.
156
00:07:19,906 --> 00:07:23,176
So the labor theory of value
is basically discarded
157
00:07:23,443 --> 00:07:26,646
only four years after
Marx writes this magnum opus
158
00:07:26,879 --> 00:07:28,748
built around the labor
theory of value.
159
00:07:28,748 --> 00:07:32,118
What this means is, in
the decades following his death,
160
00:07:32,185 --> 00:07:34,020
all economists
that engage with them,
161
00:07:34,020 --> 00:07:35,855
they read his work
and they're basically saying
162
00:07:35,855 --> 00:07:37,690
this is an obsolete theory.
163
00:07:37,690 --> 00:07:38,357
It's wrong.
164
00:07:38,357 --> 00:07:41,360
It's built around
an erroneous theory of value.
165
00:07:41,594 --> 00:07:42,929
We've since moved beyond that.
166
00:07:42,929 --> 00:07:44,764
So why are we paying attention
to it?
167
00:07:44,764 --> 00:07:46,065
Right. Yeah.
168
00:07:46,065 --> 00:07:50,303
So then then we have obviously,
169
00:07:50,369 --> 00:07:53,372
we have the Russian Revolution
come along and so
170
00:07:53,573 --> 00:07:56,409
and so it is possible
to think about like, well,
171
00:07:56,409 --> 00:07:57,944
maybe that had some impact
172
00:07:57,944 --> 00:08:02,248
because clearly Lenin,
it was had read and studied Marx
173
00:08:02,348 --> 00:08:05,952
and was being motivated
by Marxist thinking.
174
00:08:06,018 --> 00:08:10,256
And so you've investigated this
with a paper that's now
175
00:08:10,356 --> 00:08:12,325
been published in a very
176
00:08:12,325 --> 00:08:14,727
in a truly leading
economic journal,
177
00:08:14,727 --> 00:08:16,429
the Journal of
Political Economy.
178
00:08:16,429 --> 00:08:18,798
So tell us a little bit
about this.
179
00:08:18,798 --> 00:08:19,499
The paper,
180
00:08:19,499 --> 00:08:22,068
this is your coauthor,
and then then we'll get into
181
00:08:22,068 --> 00:08:25,938
how you went about trying
to test this idea that maybe
182
00:08:26,205 --> 00:08:28,741
it was the Russian Revolution
and not the power.
183
00:08:28,741 --> 00:08:32,278
And inside of Marx's ideas
that have led them
184
00:08:32,278 --> 00:08:35,281
to be such a
well known scholar today.
185
00:08:35,515 --> 00:08:35,815
Exactly.
186
00:08:35,815 --> 00:08:39,218
So this paper basically began
with a conversation
187
00:08:39,218 --> 00:08:40,686
between myself and my coauthor,
188
00:08:40,686 --> 00:08:43,689
Michael Mikovits
at Northwood University.
189
00:08:43,756 --> 00:08:48,060
And we were looking
at some data, some statistics
190
00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:49,762
using the Google
Ingram database,
191
00:08:49,762 --> 00:08:52,164
and we get into a little bit
of what that entails.
192
00:08:52,164 --> 00:08:54,834
But we noticed
a very interesting,
193
00:08:54,834 --> 00:08:58,838
just observational trend that
Marx's name is not mentioned
194
00:08:58,838 --> 00:09:01,674
very often in printed works
195
00:09:01,741 --> 00:09:02,675
in his lifetime.
196
00:09:02,675 --> 00:09:05,678
Certainly he's he's
a relatively obscure figure.
197
00:09:05,778 --> 00:09:07,914
Maybe other socialists
are referring to them.
198
00:09:07,914 --> 00:09:09,081
There are socialist pamphlets
199
00:09:09,081 --> 00:09:11,250
that critique
and engage with him.
200
00:09:11,250 --> 00:09:13,653
And then
there are a few economists that
201
00:09:13,653 --> 00:09:17,189
basically attack him for having
an incorrect theory of value.
202
00:09:17,223 --> 00:09:18,858
But that's about it.
203
00:09:18,858 --> 00:09:21,561
And this period
lasts from roughly
204
00:09:21,561 --> 00:09:24,964
his lifetime
until the early 19 tens.
205
00:09:25,064 --> 00:09:27,733
And then all of a sudden,
starting in 1917,
206
00:09:27,733 --> 00:09:30,836
you see references to Marx
skyrocket.
207
00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:32,738
They're everywhere.
208
00:09:32,738 --> 00:09:35,808
They're in contemporary
newspapers and books.
209
00:09:36,042 --> 00:09:38,177
They spill over
into academic works.
210
00:09:38,177 --> 00:09:40,713
And, you know, here
we are a century later.
211
00:09:40,713 --> 00:09:45,051
Marx is one of the most cited
figures in all of human history.
212
00:09:45,117 --> 00:09:48,287
So it's a very interesting trend
that he he hovers
213
00:09:48,287 --> 00:09:51,624
at a very low level of reference
in print material
214
00:09:51,691 --> 00:09:53,926
for basically his death
until 1916.
215
00:09:53,926 --> 00:09:55,695
And then overnight he takes off.
216
00:09:55,695 --> 00:09:58,130
So we got this
theory of the theory
217
00:09:58,130 --> 00:09:59,131
was that basically
218
00:09:59,131 --> 00:10:01,968
the Soviet Union
must have put Marx on the map.
219
00:10:01,968 --> 00:10:04,003
And this isn't
an original theory to us.
220
00:10:04,003 --> 00:10:06,639
People
have in qualitative research,
221
00:10:06,639 --> 00:10:09,575
observed this before
across the political spectrum.
222
00:10:09,575 --> 00:10:12,545
So the Austrian economists,
Ludwig von Mises, mentions it
223
00:10:12,545 --> 00:10:15,114
in a series of lectures
he gave in the 1940s.
224
00:10:15,114 --> 00:10:16,749
But also on
the other end of the spectrum,
225
00:10:16,749 --> 00:10:19,151
the Marxist historian
Eric Hobsbawm
226
00:10:19,151 --> 00:10:19,986
comes up with the same
227
00:10:19,986 --> 00:10:23,456
theory, says that Marx was
relatively unknown in his day,
228
00:10:23,623 --> 00:10:26,926
and it was really the Soviet
Union that put him on the map.
229
00:10:26,993 --> 00:10:30,396
So several
other scholars have posited
230
00:10:30,396 --> 00:10:33,699
this is an explanation of why
Marx is so prominent today.
231
00:10:33,866 --> 00:10:37,770
It's he gained
basically the credibility boost
232
00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:39,772
that came from the Soviet Union
233
00:10:39,772 --> 00:10:42,375
successfully
executing a revolution
234
00:10:42,375 --> 00:10:46,445
made him a salient figure in the
intellectual scene as well.
235
00:10:46,612 --> 00:10:47,680
And basically all that
236
00:10:47,680 --> 00:10:49,915
we've seen on Marxist
scholarship since then
237
00:10:49,915 --> 00:10:51,584
is built on that boost,
238
00:10:51,584 --> 00:10:54,553
not on things that
he did in his own lifetime.
239
00:10:54,620 --> 00:10:56,288
Here's a table from your with
240
00:10:56,288 --> 00:10:58,791
some data from your paper
showing the sort of
241
00:10:58,791 --> 00:11:02,428
your point of like Marx was not
highly regarded this ism
242
00:11:02,428 --> 00:11:06,098
Journal Journal article mentions
of some different economists
243
00:11:06,165 --> 00:11:08,267
and as we can see they're like
244
00:11:08,267 --> 00:11:10,536
Marx was
certainly not out in the lead
245
00:11:10,536 --> 00:11:13,472
you know relative to Adam
Smith he's well we hear
246
00:11:13,472 --> 00:11:18,244
Adam Smith being the founder
of economics and
247
00:11:18,344 --> 00:11:20,446
one of his contemporaries
would have been Henry George.
248
00:11:20,446 --> 00:11:23,416
And you see he's referenced
about equal to Henry George.
249
00:11:23,416 --> 00:11:27,019
And my you know, although we
as economists know who
250
00:11:27,019 --> 00:11:30,156
Henry George is probably a name
that completely is
251
00:11:30,156 --> 00:11:33,893
is not known by many Americans
today.
252
00:11:33,959 --> 00:11:34,927
Exactly. Exactly.
253
00:11:34,927 --> 00:11:37,930
And George was probably
the closest competitor to Marx
254
00:11:38,130 --> 00:11:39,665
on that list,
which is one of the reasons
255
00:11:39,665 --> 00:11:41,067
why we looked at him.
256
00:11:41,067 --> 00:11:44,270
You know, Henry
George was an ascendant
257
00:11:44,270 --> 00:11:46,205
figure in the late 19th century,
258
00:11:46,205 --> 00:11:48,808
and he actually ends up in
some of our other metrics.
259
00:11:48,808 --> 00:11:52,378
He's actually more famous
than Marx in Marx's lifetime.
260
00:11:52,445 --> 00:11:54,947
But today he's considered
just a pretty obscure
261
00:11:54,947 --> 00:11:58,150
figure that has a very niche
history of economic thought.
262
00:11:58,150 --> 00:12:01,754
Following in a few schools
of thought that follow him.
263
00:12:01,754 --> 00:12:02,988
But they're not anywhere near
264
00:12:02,988 --> 00:12:04,590
the mainstream
of the conversation.
265
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:05,157
And then the other thing
266
00:12:05,157 --> 00:12:08,160
we noticed as we started
to look across academic journals
267
00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:09,929
there and Marx is
268
00:12:09,929 --> 00:12:13,632
mentioned in certain journals,
but it's almost all concentrated
269
00:12:13,699 --> 00:12:15,968
in things
like the Economic Journal
270
00:12:15,968 --> 00:12:20,239
in the quarterly Journal
of Economics, in journals
271
00:12:20,239 --> 00:12:24,376
that had a focus on questions
like the theory of value
272
00:12:24,376 --> 00:12:27,680
in the labor
theory of value. And these were
273
00:12:27,747 --> 00:12:28,647
venues that were
274
00:12:28,647 --> 00:12:31,650
engaging in critiquing
Karl Marx.
275
00:12:31,817 --> 00:12:34,353
Whereas if you look at things
like the Journal of Education,
276
00:12:34,353 --> 00:12:35,621
he's almost nonexistent there.
277
00:12:35,621 --> 00:12:37,823
A journal of law,
278
00:12:37,823 --> 00:12:40,559
very limited
historical presence,
279
00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:44,363
very limited presence
in in literature, in English.
280
00:12:44,430 --> 00:12:44,730
And yet
281
00:12:44,730 --> 00:12:47,733
these are the fields today
where Marx is cited everywhere,
282
00:12:47,900 --> 00:12:50,202
and he's almost never cited
in the economics journals.
283
00:12:50,202 --> 00:12:51,737
So we've kind of reversed
284
00:12:51,737 --> 00:12:54,707
the entire pattern
that shown by this table.
285
00:12:54,974 --> 00:12:56,876
So let's get into
some of the details
286
00:12:56,876 --> 00:12:59,378
of how you went
about trying to test this,
287
00:12:59,378 --> 00:13:02,815
because it begins you
mentioned Google and Graham's.
288
00:13:03,015 --> 00:13:06,685
But explain for us
what that is and how this is a
289
00:13:06,685 --> 00:13:10,556
great new tool that you can
that we can use in research now.
290
00:13:10,656 --> 00:13:11,323
Yeah.
291
00:13:11,323 --> 00:13:14,660
So Google
very famously has scanned
292
00:13:14,660 --> 00:13:18,097
entire libraries
of major universities
293
00:13:18,197 --> 00:13:21,767
and put them into an online
searchable text index.
294
00:13:21,834 --> 00:13:22,668
Now, you can't get
295
00:13:22,668 --> 00:13:25,671
full access to them with some
or copyright still, but
296
00:13:25,905 --> 00:13:29,909
their goal is to text scan
297
00:13:30,009 --> 00:13:32,878
basically
the entirety of human knowledge.
298
00:13:32,878 --> 00:13:34,346
And they started with English
299
00:13:34,346 --> 00:13:36,649
language sources,
but they've since expanded to
300
00:13:36,649 --> 00:13:38,851
about a dozen other languages.
301
00:13:38,851 --> 00:13:41,253
The most recent update in 2019.
302
00:13:41,253 --> 00:13:43,055
There are some estimates
that say
303
00:13:43,055 --> 00:13:46,458
in the neighborhood of ten,
maybe even 20% of all books ever
304
00:13:46,525 --> 00:13:47,693
that have ever been written
305
00:13:47,693 --> 00:13:48,561
and published
306
00:13:48,561 --> 00:13:51,597
have now been scanned in
some form or another by Google.
307
00:13:51,831 --> 00:13:53,966
And what Google does
with engrams
308
00:13:53,966 --> 00:13:58,838
is they basically set up a
an online tool
309
00:13:58,938 --> 00:14:00,372
where you can search
310
00:14:00,372 --> 00:14:05,244
any name or phrase or word
or group of words together.
311
00:14:05,311 --> 00:14:08,747
And it will calculate
how many times those phrases
312
00:14:08,747 --> 00:14:11,550
or words or names appear
313
00:14:11,550 --> 00:14:14,620
in a given set of text relative
to all other books
314
00:14:14,620 --> 00:14:16,522
that they've scanned
for that year.
315
00:14:16,522 --> 00:14:18,257
So you can get
if you search the name
316
00:14:18,257 --> 00:14:20,626
Karl Marx,
it'll give you basically
317
00:14:20,626 --> 00:14:21,961
the equivalent of a percentage
318
00:14:21,961 --> 00:14:22,795
of how many
319
00:14:22,795 --> 00:14:25,397
times Marx is mentioned relative
to all the books
320
00:14:25,397 --> 00:14:26,699
that they've scanned
for that year.
321
00:14:26,699 --> 00:14:28,033
And you can do this
with any name,
322
00:14:28,033 --> 00:14:30,769
any phrase, any wording,
and you can start
323
00:14:30,769 --> 00:14:33,772
to see the patterns
as they change over time.
324
00:14:33,873 --> 00:14:35,741
So it became
a really interesting tool
325
00:14:35,741 --> 00:14:37,743
because we observed
one of the first things we did
326
00:14:37,743 --> 00:14:39,144
when we embarked on this project
327
00:14:39,144 --> 00:14:43,515
is we observe that spike
in 1917 around Karl Marx.
328
00:14:43,582 --> 00:14:43,849
Yeah.
329
00:14:43,849 --> 00:14:47,086
So we have this up there now
and if you're looking at this,
330
00:14:47,152 --> 00:14:48,087
we have two lines there.
331
00:14:48,087 --> 00:14:49,889
But right now
what we're focusing in
332
00:14:49,889 --> 00:14:53,859
is the solid line because
that sets the actual number of
333
00:14:53,926 --> 00:14:56,929
citations to Marx from this
Google and Grams.
334
00:14:56,962 --> 00:14:57,830
And you see why
335
00:14:57,830 --> 00:14:59,999
maybe it was trending up
a little bit,
336
00:14:59,999 --> 00:15:04,670
a little bit higher in the years
before 1970 than
337
00:15:04,737 --> 00:15:06,205
it is back to the 1880s.
338
00:15:06,205 --> 00:15:08,540
But there is a huge jump there.
339
00:15:08,540 --> 00:15:13,245
And so this certainly is see
you see it there in the data.
340
00:15:13,312 --> 00:15:16,215
But as economists,
especially when we go
341
00:15:16,215 --> 00:15:17,616
about trying to do our research,
342
00:15:17,616 --> 00:15:20,619
even if you see
something in the data,
343
00:15:20,819 --> 00:15:23,656
we have to be skeptical
and you have to try
344
00:15:23,656 --> 00:15:26,659
to ask the question of,
well, could it have been
345
00:15:26,926 --> 00:15:29,028
you know, could have happened
for some other reason?
346
00:15:29,028 --> 00:15:30,496
And and one thing
you could look at
347
00:15:30,496 --> 00:15:33,666
or particularly or wonder is,
was there something that drove
348
00:15:33,766 --> 00:15:34,900
a lot of different
349
00:15:34,900 --> 00:15:38,904
authors to be cited, a lot more
than, say, after 1917,
350
00:15:39,138 --> 00:15:39,538
you know,
351
00:15:39,538 --> 00:15:41,173
the World War that was ending
352
00:15:41,173 --> 00:15:43,175
and maybe people
were writing a lot
353
00:15:43,175 --> 00:15:45,377
about what the postwar world
should be like.
354
00:15:45,377 --> 00:15:48,380
And so maybe lots of maybe
lots of other authors
355
00:15:48,414 --> 00:15:50,215
started to get
a lot more mentioned or,
356
00:15:50,215 --> 00:15:52,151
you know, maybe
libraries became more efficient
357
00:15:52,151 --> 00:15:53,619
or or whatever it might be.
358
00:15:53,619 --> 00:15:55,454
There
could be other explanations.
359
00:15:55,454 --> 00:15:59,625
And so to try to explore
this further, you use a strong
360
00:15:59,625 --> 00:16:03,429
empirical technique that's been
relatively recently devised
361
00:16:03,429 --> 00:16:06,699
by economists and other
social scientists to study this.
362
00:16:06,765 --> 00:16:08,033
It's called synthetic control.
363
00:16:08,033 --> 00:16:11,337
So tell us a little
about what's involved with that.
364
00:16:11,437 --> 00:16:15,140
Yeah, so synthetic control, it's
basically a way of matching
365
00:16:15,174 --> 00:16:18,377
trendlines up until a point,
a treatment date.
366
00:16:18,377 --> 00:16:21,313
So our treatment date is built
around this hypothesis
367
00:16:21,313 --> 00:16:23,749
that the Soviet Union
puts Marx on the map.
368
00:16:23,749 --> 00:16:26,251
It causes
a huge spike in his citations.
369
00:16:26,251 --> 00:16:29,755
And we see that visibly
in the in Graham data for Marx.
370
00:16:29,822 --> 00:16:31,156
But to test it,
we also going to look
371
00:16:31,156 --> 00:16:32,558
at the counterfactuals
like you mentioned.
372
00:16:32,558 --> 00:16:34,360
Is there something else
going on?
373
00:16:34,360 --> 00:16:37,696
So what we did is we data
scraped the engram database
374
00:16:37,696 --> 00:16:41,533
off of Google
and put together a list of 225
375
00:16:41,533 --> 00:16:44,703
other authors that were either
contemporaries or Mark.
376
00:16:44,703 --> 00:16:45,504
So basically
377
00:16:45,504 --> 00:16:47,639
writing at the same time as him
378
00:16:47,639 --> 00:16:49,575
to and then anyone
earlier than that.
379
00:16:49,575 --> 00:16:51,310
So we go all the way back
to what the ancient world
380
00:16:51,310 --> 00:16:55,047
with Plato and Aristotle and
thinkers like that with names
381
00:16:55,047 --> 00:16:58,417
that are basically considered
part of the intellectual canon.
382
00:16:58,517 --> 00:17:00,285
And then we also augmented that
383
00:17:00,285 --> 00:17:02,621
with looking at other socialist
figures.
384
00:17:02,621 --> 00:17:05,657
So people that were contemporary
debaters of Marx,
385
00:17:05,657 --> 00:17:07,926
that had competing camps
in the socialist world,
386
00:17:07,926 --> 00:17:10,329
they may have been pretty
obscure themselves,
387
00:17:10,329 --> 00:17:12,197
kind of like Marx,
but they were trying a fighting.
388
00:17:12,197 --> 00:17:13,332
It out to be
389
00:17:13,332 --> 00:17:16,735
the leader of the socialist
movement in Marx's lifetime.
390
00:17:16,835 --> 00:17:19,838
So we put together
this database, 225 names,
391
00:17:19,972 --> 00:17:22,875
plus Karl Marx of all their year
we engrams.
392
00:17:22,875 --> 00:17:25,577
And what synthetic control does
is it basically runs
393
00:17:25,577 --> 00:17:26,945
a computer algorithm
394
00:17:26,945 --> 00:17:30,015
and it tries to match
the other authors
395
00:17:30,015 --> 00:17:34,987
in that database to Karl Marx
prior to 1917, for every year
396
00:17:35,087 --> 00:17:39,258
from when we started synthetic
control in 1878 to 1916,
397
00:17:39,491 --> 00:17:41,860
the computer is trying to get
the best fit
398
00:17:41,860 --> 00:17:45,130
from weighted numbers
that come out of all of those
399
00:17:45,130 --> 00:17:46,965
other 225 authors.
400
00:17:46,965 --> 00:17:48,767
And what it will do,
it will select others
401
00:17:48,767 --> 00:17:51,603
that match Karl Marx's
citation patterns
402
00:17:51,603 --> 00:17:53,272
over that period of time,
403
00:17:53,272 --> 00:17:57,609
and it eventually generates
a fit that we can subject to
404
00:17:57,676 --> 00:17:59,244
all sorts of testing.
405
00:17:59,244 --> 00:18:01,246
We can look for statistical
significance
406
00:18:01,246 --> 00:18:04,249
in what we're trying to detect
is what would happen
407
00:18:04,450 --> 00:18:07,920
if this supposed positive event,
this treatment,
408
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:12,357
this 1917 event had never
happened, or what if Lenin's
409
00:18:12,458 --> 00:18:14,359
attempt at revolution
had been quashed
410
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:16,695
and then he faded away
into obscurity?
411
00:18:16,695 --> 00:18:17,896
What would have continued?
412
00:18:17,896 --> 00:18:20,732
Well, the premise here is
that Marx would have continued
413
00:18:20,732 --> 00:18:23,669
to track
all of the authors that fit
414
00:18:23,669 --> 00:18:27,106
his trendline line
the closest prior to 1917.
415
00:18:27,339 --> 00:18:29,875
And that's what gives us
the synthetic counterfactual
416
00:18:29,875 --> 00:18:31,877
that we can project
forward into the future
417
00:18:31,877 --> 00:18:35,047
using the authors that fit Marx
the closest, right?
418
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:36,715
Yeah, because the idea would be
419
00:18:36,715 --> 00:18:39,718
these people
fit Marx up until 1916.
420
00:18:39,885 --> 00:18:43,188
So whenever was they,
they were following quite long,
421
00:18:43,322 --> 00:18:46,325
but they did not have
their disciples
422
00:18:46,425 --> 00:18:48,494
take over major country
and take over a country.
423
00:18:48,494 --> 00:18:52,931
And so if you see a divergence
as emerges after that, then
424
00:18:52,998 --> 00:18:56,401
we can at least have some
confidence to say that it was
425
00:18:56,401 --> 00:19:00,672
that that event, as opposed to
other economic or social forces,
426
00:19:00,739 --> 00:19:01,840
that that was causing it.
427
00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,376
And if you look at this graph
here,
428
00:19:04,376 --> 00:19:06,945
we got the dashed line up there.
You can see that.
429
00:19:06,945 --> 00:19:10,249
Yeah, the the dash line
divergence significant.
430
00:19:10,449 --> 00:19:13,452
The dash
line does not take a huge jump.
431
00:19:13,552 --> 00:19:13,819
Right.
432
00:19:13,819 --> 00:19:17,756
It just continues
along at roughly the same level.
433
00:19:17,823 --> 00:19:20,459
It's,
you know, in its relatively low.
434
00:19:20,459 --> 00:19:21,460
I mean, it's basically
435
00:19:21,460 --> 00:19:24,897
hovering the same place
it was in the late 19th century.
436
00:19:24,963 --> 00:19:27,633
And some of these figures
that are composites
437
00:19:27,633 --> 00:19:30,636
of that dash line,
we do still study them together,
438
00:19:30,636 --> 00:19:33,639
but we studied them in the same
way we study Henry George
439
00:19:33,805 --> 00:19:36,041
or some very obscure socialist
figures
440
00:19:36,041 --> 00:19:37,743
in the history of economic
thought.
441
00:19:37,743 --> 00:19:38,911
It's not like Karl Marx.
442
00:19:38,911 --> 00:19:41,446
The actual citations
that have just taken off.
443
00:19:41,446 --> 00:19:44,516
Yeah. Is this is just the
444
00:19:44,583 --> 00:19:47,519
the list of the authors
that you had included in there.
445
00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:52,224
So people can sort of see
I mean, includes Lassalle was a
446
00:19:52,291 --> 00:19:55,861
socialist writer as well,
but then you include people
447
00:19:55,861 --> 00:20:00,098
like Oscar Wilde and Abraham
Lincoln, even because up
448
00:20:00,098 --> 00:20:04,036
until 1916,
those citations to their
449
00:20:04,102 --> 00:20:08,340
name, to their their work were
tracking Marx quite similarly.
450
00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,408
Right? Right.
451
00:20:09,408 --> 00:20:10,742
Yeah. So it's a composite.
452
00:20:10,742 --> 00:20:13,078
All this adds up
to basically 100%.
453
00:20:13,078 --> 00:20:14,780
So these are the weights
of all the different
454
00:20:14,780 --> 00:20:16,582
figures,
their citation patterns.
455
00:20:16,582 --> 00:20:18,050
And the really interesting thing
456
00:20:18,050 --> 00:20:21,053
is that the two
biggest weights, so
457
00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:24,223
more than a half comes from
Ferdinand Whistle a man
458
00:20:24,323 --> 00:20:28,293
a little over a quarter comes
from Johann Karl Repurchase
459
00:20:28,393 --> 00:20:32,931
and this makes sense
LaSalle and Roberta's were two
460
00:20:32,998 --> 00:20:35,667
socialist
competitors to Karl Marx.
461
00:20:35,667 --> 00:20:37,502
They were probably precursors
to what we call
462
00:20:37,502 --> 00:20:39,037
the Democratic socialist
463
00:20:39,037 --> 00:20:40,138
tradition, whereas Marx is
464
00:20:40,138 --> 00:20:42,975
the revolutionary
socialist tradition.
465
00:20:43,041 --> 00:20:45,344
If they were writing
around the same time as him
466
00:20:45,344 --> 00:20:47,145
and they had their own groups
of followers
467
00:20:47,145 --> 00:20:50,449
that clashed with the Marxists
in the socialist world.
468
00:20:50,515 --> 00:20:53,585
But the other interesting thing
is what Sal brought Burgess
469
00:20:53,585 --> 00:20:57,356
and Marx
basically all hated each other.
470
00:20:57,456 --> 00:21:00,759
They agreed on socialist
ideals of certain sorts,
471
00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:02,761
and they interacted
in the same circles.
472
00:21:02,761 --> 00:21:06,732
But regardless, his followers,
for example, accused
473
00:21:06,732 --> 00:21:07,933
Marx of plagiarizing,
474
00:21:07,933 --> 00:21:11,236
using the theory of surplus
value from Ferdinand WESSEL.
475
00:21:11,236 --> 00:21:11,703
And Marx
476
00:21:11,703 --> 00:21:16,308
had a very notoriously fractured
relationship that involved
477
00:21:16,408 --> 00:21:18,577
some some very vicious name
calling
478
00:21:18,577 --> 00:21:21,880
and denunciations of each other
as competitor socialists.
479
00:21:21,947 --> 00:21:24,616
So it makes sense that
those are the heaviest weights.
480
00:21:24,616 --> 00:21:27,052
And then the other weights
you start to see
481
00:21:27,052 --> 00:21:29,087
are other figures
from the 19th century
482
00:21:29,087 --> 00:21:34,059
that were just tracking that gen
483
00:21:34,126 --> 00:21:37,129
And then you continue
this just for, you know,
484
00:21:37,362 --> 00:21:41,166
purposes of illustration
out the president essentially.
485
00:21:41,166 --> 00:21:42,601
And you can sure enough see
486
00:21:42,601 --> 00:21:47,172
yeah this is the same parents
before I the real Karl Marx,
487
00:21:47,239 --> 00:21:50,409
starts getting cited a lot more
than the synthetic Karl Marx.
488
00:21:50,409 --> 00:21:53,445
And so, yeah, this pattern
wasn't just transitory.
489
00:21:53,445 --> 00:21:56,581
Maybe during the early Soviet
Union, it continued since.
490
00:21:56,581 --> 00:21:58,950
And of course we know that
because Marx gets
491
00:21:58,950 --> 00:22:00,552
we know Marx is cited
492
00:22:00,552 --> 00:22:03,388
a tremendous amount today, but
certainly a lot more than the
493
00:22:03,388 --> 00:22:05,824
that the control group
would have been.
494
00:22:05,824 --> 00:22:07,592
Absolutely no way.
495
00:22:07,592 --> 00:22:09,494
And you can see that,
496
00:22:09,494 --> 00:22:11,830
you know, that that composite
of all the other authors,
497
00:22:11,830 --> 00:22:14,433
it stays relatively flat
across the century.
498
00:22:14,433 --> 00:22:16,068
Now, I want to caution
against projecting
499
00:22:16,068 --> 00:22:17,769
all the way a century later,
500
00:22:17,769 --> 00:22:18,937
because there are many other
501
00:22:18,937 --> 00:22:21,173
intervening events
that occurred here.
502
00:22:21,173 --> 00:22:23,308
But we see clearly that
this is the split.
503
00:22:23,308 --> 00:22:28,647
1917 is the the point
where the two lines diverge.
504
00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:31,950
And it's a very pronounced
divergence that just continues
505
00:22:31,950 --> 00:22:33,251
ever since then.
506
00:22:33,251 --> 00:22:33,852
Yeah.
507
00:22:33,852 --> 00:22:34,853
And, you know,
508
00:22:34,853 --> 00:22:37,456
so what we can talk about
a little bit further is like,
509
00:22:37,456 --> 00:22:38,156
you know, you do
510
00:22:38,156 --> 00:22:41,326
a number of additional tasks
because for our research,
511
00:22:41,426 --> 00:22:43,662
this this becomes
critically important.
512
00:22:43,662 --> 00:22:44,596
People
are going to want to know,
513
00:22:44,596 --> 00:22:47,132
is there anything else
that could be explaining this
514
00:22:47,132 --> 00:22:48,700
other than than
what you're alleging?
515
00:22:48,700 --> 00:22:51,737
Because if there is, then
we don't want you to be able
516
00:22:51,737 --> 00:22:54,806
to sort of improperly
allege that
517
00:22:55,006 --> 00:22:56,775
that it was
the Russian Revolution
518
00:22:56,775 --> 00:22:58,710
when something else
could explain.
519
00:22:58,710 --> 00:23:00,512
So you do a whole bunch
of different tests
520
00:23:00,512 --> 00:23:01,780
and then you also actually test
521
00:23:01,780 --> 00:23:05,217
it, try and see if there's
a statistical significance here.
522
00:23:05,317 --> 00:23:06,017
Could you have
523
00:23:06,017 --> 00:23:09,755
seen something like this happen
just by random chance?
524
00:23:09,855 --> 00:23:12,290
So tell us briefly
about some of these other things
525
00:23:12,290 --> 00:23:14,726
that you use
to try to try to rule out
526
00:23:14,726 --> 00:23:17,229
as possible explanations?
Yeah. Yeah.
527
00:23:17,229 --> 00:23:20,966
So we ran a whole series
of robust robustness checks
528
00:23:21,032 --> 00:23:22,134
to make sure that our
529
00:23:22,134 --> 00:23:25,036
our results were in fact,
what we thought they were
530
00:23:25,036 --> 00:23:26,271
and this included.
531
00:23:26,271 --> 00:23:28,039
So one of the first ones we did
532
00:23:28,039 --> 00:23:31,543
Google Ingram's only uses books
to scan library books.
533
00:23:31,777 --> 00:23:33,645
The question comes up, Well,
what about newspapers?
534
00:23:33,645 --> 00:23:35,580
What about periodicals?
535
00:23:35,580 --> 00:23:38,450
So we set up a computer scraping
536
00:23:38,450 --> 00:23:41,753
program that scanned over
newspaper databases.
537
00:23:41,753 --> 00:23:45,557
So historical scans
of of the daily New York Times
538
00:23:45,557 --> 00:23:49,127
all the way down to the Peoria
Express News or whatever
539
00:23:49,127 --> 00:23:50,695
it happens to be.
540
00:23:50,695 --> 00:23:52,197
And we looked across
these newspaper
541
00:23:52,197 --> 00:23:54,499
databases,
scraped the same type of data
542
00:23:54,499 --> 00:23:56,067
for mentions of the name
543
00:23:56,067 --> 00:23:57,736
as a percentage
of all newspapers
544
00:23:57,736 --> 00:23:59,237
that had been scanned
for that year.
545
00:23:59,237 --> 00:24:02,507
And we replicated our study
and we independently film
546
00:24:02,507 --> 00:24:05,210
basically more or less
the same thesis.
547
00:24:05,210 --> 00:24:08,947
Marx is a relatively obscure
figure until 1917,
548
00:24:09,047 --> 00:24:11,850
and then suddenly he's
all over the newspapers.
549
00:24:11,850 --> 00:24:14,286
So there was one
check that we did.
550
00:24:14,286 --> 00:24:16,755
We also segment it up
our author.
551
00:24:16,755 --> 00:24:17,589
So we,
552
00:24:17,589 --> 00:24:21,092
we ran the test over again
by excluding other socialists,
553
00:24:21,193 --> 00:24:23,361
and then we limited
to socialist only.
554
00:24:23,361 --> 00:24:25,230
And these are two ways
to kind of triangulate,
555
00:24:25,230 --> 00:24:27,999
to figure out that yes,
indeed, Marx is pulling away
556
00:24:27,999 --> 00:24:31,436
from the rest of the pack
of other socialist thinkers.
557
00:24:31,536 --> 00:24:34,539
And that that again came up
with some very strong results.
558
00:24:34,639 --> 00:24:36,208
And then we asked the question,
559
00:24:36,208 --> 00:24:39,611
well, what happened in languages
other than English is English
560
00:24:39,611 --> 00:24:42,781
is by far the biggest part
of the Ingram database.
561
00:24:42,781 --> 00:24:43,949
It's the
562
00:24:43,949 --> 00:24:46,952
the language that most scholarly
works are published in.
563
00:24:46,985 --> 00:24:49,488
But Karl Marx
also wrote in German.
564
00:24:49,488 --> 00:24:52,557
So we looked at the German
language in grammar database
565
00:24:52,757 --> 00:24:56,094
and then subsequently the German
language newspaper database
566
00:24:56,161 --> 00:24:59,164
to figure out if the same trend
could be observable.
567
00:24:59,331 --> 00:25:01,032
And it turns out, yes, it is.
568
00:25:01,032 --> 00:25:03,468
So where do the German language
in Braille?
569
00:25:03,468 --> 00:25:05,504
He's again
following the same pattern
570
00:25:05,504 --> 00:25:09,174
of relatively low
levels of citation
571
00:25:09,241 --> 00:25:12,344
matching some fairly obscure
other socialist figures.
572
00:25:12,544 --> 00:25:15,146
1917 He skyrockets.
573
00:25:15,146 --> 00:25:18,116
He shoots up in German
language counts.
574
00:25:18,116 --> 00:25:19,985
But Germany
does something very interesting.
575
00:25:19,985 --> 00:25:20,952
Very, very different.
576
00:25:20,952 --> 00:25:25,156
This kind of validated
our theory as well as so German
577
00:25:25,156 --> 00:25:30,061
Karl Marx citations continue
to increase throughout the 1920s
578
00:25:30,161 --> 00:25:33,031
until 1932 and 1933.
579
00:25:33,031 --> 00:25:37,269
Then they suddenly reverse
and drop back down toward that
580
00:25:37,335 --> 00:25:40,338
trend line from the composite
of the other authors.
581
00:25:40,405 --> 00:25:42,741
This is very obviously explained
by one thing
582
00:25:42,741 --> 00:25:44,709
the year that Hitler
came to power
583
00:25:44,709 --> 00:25:46,111
and what did Hitler do?
584
00:25:46,111 --> 00:25:50,582
He censored opposition political
works, including Karl Marx.
585
00:25:50,682 --> 00:25:53,585
And then in 1946,
586
00:25:53,585 --> 00:25:56,521
after Germany's
been defeated in World War Two,
587
00:25:56,521 --> 00:25:58,089
there's a marxist state
588
00:25:58,089 --> 00:26:01,092
that's proclaimed in East
Germany by the Soviet Union,
589
00:26:01,126 --> 00:26:04,896
and suddenly Marxist citations
shoot off again in German.
590
00:26:04,996 --> 00:26:08,099
So we have a triple treatment
effect occurring in German
591
00:26:08,099 --> 00:26:10,969
that validates this
original observation.
592
00:26:10,969 --> 00:26:13,605
It's really the Soviet Union
that's driving it,
593
00:26:13,605 --> 00:26:16,441
and it's other political events
that have changed the trend.
594
00:26:16,441 --> 00:26:17,309
So by
595
00:26:17,309 --> 00:26:20,111
by running these other tests,
we basically tried to eliminate
596
00:26:20,111 --> 00:26:21,646
alternative hypotheses,
597
00:26:21,646 --> 00:26:25,850
alternative explanations
that might have otherwise
598
00:26:25,917 --> 00:26:28,787
told us why
Marxist citations took off.
599
00:26:28,787 --> 00:26:32,791
And we found some very robust
results that all triangulate
600
00:26:32,791 --> 00:26:34,426
and point
back to this one thing.
601
00:26:34,426 --> 00:26:35,560
It's the Russian Revolution.
602
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:37,395
It's the Soviet Union.
603
00:26:37,395 --> 00:26:37,696
Well,
604
00:26:37,696 --> 00:26:39,130
we just have a couple of minutes
left,
605
00:26:39,130 --> 00:26:40,065
so I want to talk a little bit
606
00:26:40,065 --> 00:26:41,533
about some
of the implications of this
607
00:26:41,533 --> 00:26:45,537
and what you mentioned earlier
and that because a couple of the
608
00:26:45,637 --> 00:26:48,773
writers in this synthetic Marx
were are they're socialists.
609
00:26:48,807 --> 00:26:51,676
And as you mentioned,
like relative
610
00:26:51,676 --> 00:26:54,913
to Marx, other socialists
writing in the 1800s
611
00:26:55,146 --> 00:26:59,217
or early 1900s were not all
advocating for a violent
612
00:26:59,284 --> 00:27:02,654
revolt, using that as a way
to bring socialism about.
613
00:27:02,721 --> 00:27:03,955
And, you know,
614
00:27:03,955 --> 00:27:06,224
that's one of the possible
if Marx had remained
615
00:27:06,224 --> 00:27:10,061
one of many different socialist
voices, you know, maybe
616
00:27:10,128 --> 00:27:13,698
proponents, people
who saw some value in from each
617
00:27:13,698 --> 00:27:16,701
according to our ability
to each according to need
618
00:27:16,768 --> 00:27:20,739
might have pursued a different,
say, more peaceful path
619
00:27:20,805 --> 00:27:22,674
to power in the 20th century.
620
00:27:22,674 --> 00:27:24,042
And maybe some of the
621
00:27:24,042 --> 00:27:25,810
the horrors
that we observed with
622
00:27:25,810 --> 00:27:30,115
communism where Marx's ideas,
wherever they were implemented,
623
00:27:30,315 --> 00:27:33,318
maybe some of that
was the history of a different.
624
00:27:33,485 --> 00:27:34,052
Absolutely.
625
00:27:34,052 --> 00:27:37,989
So one of the the effects
that we discern from our data
626
00:27:37,989 --> 00:27:39,557
and sort of these robustness
checks
627
00:27:39,557 --> 00:27:42,627
is Marx basically crowded out
all of his competitors
628
00:27:42,627 --> 00:27:44,429
in the socialist world.
629
00:27:44,429 --> 00:27:47,332
These are people
that were basically tracking him
630
00:27:47,332 --> 00:27:50,902
in similar citation patterns
prior to 1917.
631
00:27:51,136 --> 00:27:52,637
Many of them
were his contemporaries,
632
00:27:52,637 --> 00:27:55,173
and they had their own factions
debating each other.
633
00:27:55,173 --> 00:27:57,676
And, you know, it's an open
question
634
00:27:57,676 --> 00:28:00,645
Would one or more of these
other competing socialists
635
00:28:00,679 --> 00:28:03,682
have become the dominant figures
in the socialist tradition,
636
00:28:03,715 --> 00:28:05,483
had it not been for women?
637
00:28:05,483 --> 00:28:06,751
And we also know from Lenin,
638
00:28:06,751 --> 00:28:07,585
Lennon was very
639
00:28:07,585 --> 00:28:11,690
explicitly drawn to Marx because
Marx embraced revolution,
640
00:28:11,756 --> 00:28:13,491
where
some of these other thinkers
641
00:28:13,491 --> 00:28:16,061
said, That's off the table.
Violence is wrong.
642
00:28:16,061 --> 00:28:18,363
So yes,
you get a very different path.
643
00:28:18,363 --> 00:28:21,933
It could have occurred at a
win and not been successful.
644
00:28:22,033 --> 00:28:25,036
Well, thanks so much for
coming on and talk about this is
645
00:28:25,070 --> 00:28:29,007
I found this to be
a tremendously enlightening
646
00:28:29,107 --> 00:28:29,841
paper to read.
647
00:28:29,841 --> 00:28:32,544
So thanks again
so much for coming on
648
00:28:32,544 --> 00:28:34,012
and thank you all
for joining us.
649
00:28:34,012 --> 00:28:39,951
Join us again next time
for another E conversations.
650
00:28:40,018 --> 00:28:43,154
This has been e conversations,
a joint production
651
00:28:43,154 --> 00:28:45,557
of Joy Torture Division
at the Manuel H.
652
00:28:45,557 --> 00:28:48,660
Johnson Center for Political
Economy at Troy University.
