WEBVTT
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Hello and welcome to Copper Weekly, a benchmark podcast.
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I'm Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and with me we have Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst and Market Reporter, where each week we'll unpack what really moved the copper market and what to watch in the coming days ahead.
00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:17.839
Along the way, we'll be joined by a number of guest speakers.
00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:22.000
So kick back, relax, and enjoy this quick download on Everything Copper.
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Welcome back to episode 17 of Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
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Thanks for tuning in once more.
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We've got Albert joining us.
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Albert, how are you doing?
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I'm doing very well, thank you.
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Had a lovely weekend down in Cornwall.
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I'm terrible at surfing.
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I'm trying to learn.
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That's the the aim, but being in the uh being in the sea in September is very nice in England.
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It's surprisingly warm, right?
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I also went go-karting and I have genuinely hurt my arm by crashing into a wall.
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So uh, you know.
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It was a good good I won the race, so I mean it sort of swings aroundabouts, I guess.
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Well that's important.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Exactly.
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All right, let's get into the the copper market.
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Uh, I mean, my initial take on this, Albert, is we actually saw some significant price gains, right?
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So copper clawed back, a lot of the ground it lost.
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Um, and one could perhaps argue that China might be one of a few uh driving forces uh behind that.
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We've also got sort of a fairly interesting supply debate uh bubbing up as well, which we can dig into.
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But let's start with that recent price uh strength that we've seen.
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Uh perhaps not recovering all the ground, but uh recent increases over the last week and in sort of what your take is on the reasons why.
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Yeah.
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Um actually, interestingly, since I wrote the briefing, the the copper price is really damn close to its all-time high again.
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Um it does seem China's playing a big role in this.
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Uh, we saw import premiums into China hit a four-year high last week, and the arbitrage was really open in in China's favour, you know, so incentivizing imports.
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Um we've seen, you know, in the last week or so, um almost 30,000 tons of cancellations of of LME stock in um in in Asia.
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Um and we spoke I spoke to some Lawrence traders, and it seems like that's because of physical demand in China.
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Um there's a few things.
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Firstly, yeah, you know, the prices dipped below 14,000 last week, which uh seems insane to be a buying incentiviser, the prices being what 39.50 or something, but it seems to do the job at the moment that you know the last few times the price has dipped below 14,000.
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We've seen some buying interests and and and you know demand in China, for example, pick up.
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Um so I guess that's what we're we're we're seeing, and it and the prices have recovered a little bit.
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There is um, I guess we're also approaching Golden Week in China, so there might be buying before before the holidays start as well, I guess.
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Um though it it does seem it does seem to be a little bit more than that.
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And and I guess the more hand-to-mouth, if you if you view the market as as buying hand to mouth, you know, it's more reactive to prices in those moments.
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Um and and interestingly, I read uh an article this morning that noted um we aren't seeing warehouse stocks in inland in China, uh like on land in China.
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LME stock, LME doesn't have any warehouses in China, but so there are certain stocks you can look at in China that sort of give a view of the stock levels in China.
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Those haven't actually gone up with these likely imports into the region.
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Um it seems it seems to be going to physical demand, which is interesting.
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Okay, very good.
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So like you says, maybe some buying signals of copper dipping below 14,000, uh, maybe a little bit of pre-buying activity.
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Is there anything else you you think that could be driving price movement right now?
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I mean, we are seeing it's one of those interesting things where I think sometimes the market doesn't follow fundamentals at the moment entirely.
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Like obviously there is an aspect to which it is, and there's a blurred line between what's not a fundamental and what is.
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Um, but it does certainly seem to be following fundamentals when those fundamentals are bullish.
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Um so I think now we've seen prices go up, I think off the back of the dip, you know, dip buying and demand in China.
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You know, you see the recirculation of those other narratives.
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Um I saw a lot of coverage in the last few weeks about the potential for mined copper supply to be lower this year than last, which would be um rare.
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I don't know the last time that happened.
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Um normally you see year-on-year mine copper growth.
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That's just sort of the the nature of most markets, really.
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It's if if you if people are wanting more of a thing, then more of the thing gets made every year.
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Um, but we you know there has been some reports of a contraction in in mine production.
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We we don't necessarily see it, a benchmark.
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Um, partly because um the second half of the year is tends to be stronger uh than the first half of the year.
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There was a dip um half one this year against half one last year.
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Um, but also we're looking at, you know, there was a lot of disruptions in the second half of last year that fed into the first half of this, you know, Grasburg, Kamucoa, El Teniente, and and in theory, those those mines should be upping production in the second half of the year, returning more to normal.
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And and so, you know, we don't necessarily see that, but it's definitely a narrative that's recirculating.
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Like when when prices go back up, people talk about those issues again.
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And also, I mean, there's been you know a load of coverage on um material heading to the US again.
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Um, you know, there was a a a good Bloomberg article uh this week which mentioned a really big shipload of material heading from uh Africa from the DRC originally, I don't know what port it's actually come from to the US, half a billion dollars worth of material on one boat.
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Um and I can't remember if we mentioned it in the podcast last week, but we we mentioned it in last week's written briefing.
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Um that you know we had expected we, you know, we'd heard from actually I think the same source as Bloomberg Kepler that there was you know lots of material still moving to the US, and and I guess that feeds into that tightness still.
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Um, you know, the market's tight, lots of material moving to the US in that way.
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So um, you know, I guess those stories recirculate now, the price is back up.
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Yeah, yeah, completely agree.
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I want to come back to that point about um or the story that you're reading regarding a contraction to mine production.
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Like you said, it's not necessarily reflected in in benchmark numbers, but what we are seeing, you know, is uh let's say relatively flat or or slower mine production growth as opposed to refined.
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Um what what's behind that sort of relatively robust refined uh production number?
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Um increased scrap usage?
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Yeah, I mean scrap is a is a big part of that.
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Uh higher prices, higher prices incentivize, I mean the sort of assumed logic is higher prices incentivize a rush of material onto the market, but they it's relative high prices because scrap traders will buy relatively underhed and then sell when the price is suitable for them to do so.
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So it's not necessarily, and this is the assumed logic, it's not necessarily that higher prices mean that more things are recycled in the long run, it's just it kind of incentivizes that rush of material onto the market.
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I think there is an element, you know, of obviously if prices are$14,000 a tonne, people start to, you know, try and get more creative and try and eke out more that they more than they would have done previously, and and it's hard to measure those things.
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Um the other thing is also if you want scrap usage to continue being an important part of that narrative, is to consider where that scrap is coming from.
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And I always think, and I remember talking to a concentrate trader about two, three years ago, and he he had this on his height on his site, so it sort of confirms it.
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So maybe it's not, you know, maybe it's not true, maybe it's a confirmation bias that he said this thing and I'm seeing it now in the market, that China is at a point of its industrial cycle where the material initially used 20, 30 years ago is coming back into to the to the market.
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If you look at, you know, you get a cop graph up, if you listen to this, get a graph up of Chinese and global copper usage, it goes crazy, you know, about 20, 30 years ago as as China's industrial start cycle starts really taking off, lots of that's coming back into the system.
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So there's a chance that you know some scrap is just scrap is more available.
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It's really hard to judge, it's really hard to measure.
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Um, but it can't be a silver bullet forever.
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I think maybe that's what what people think is that like if you see growing demand, you know, a scrap supply is never gonna be able to satisfy growing copper demand.
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It can only sort of play a part of that role.
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So I think I think that's interesting as well.
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Um yeah, certainly some people don't think it can it can keep up.
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Yeah, it's a good point regarding so we're talking scrap generation, right?
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So it's uh when you said a lot of that copper that went into the ground, or a lot of that is approaching uh end of life, and a big part of that would be the um the existing grid network.
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And we've done some work at Benchmark to look at um yeah, average um life expectancy for um some of these uh transmission uh and distribution cables and what that means, um certainly the copper-bearing ones, the underground ones, and what that means for for future potential uh scrapples.
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And it's it's really significant, like you said, but it's it's whether or not that will be incentivized enough to effectively rip out the ground.
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And I think there's an article going around at the moment regarding you know, BT sat on a gold mine essentially, um, here in the UK with all the the the old copper cable that they've been putting in over you know many, many decades.
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You know, there's a lot of copper contained uh and copper value sat in the ground, but um is it enough right now to incentivize that.
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And I think that's uh always will be a growing part for recycling.
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But like you said, it's not the uh the be all and end all, it's part of you know closing that gap that we you know we talked about with with Scott.
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It's it's a combination of of all of the above, right?
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So it's a really interesting point, actually, because I I saw that article and I asked uh someone who's quite well informed on European scrap about it, uh about the the BT stuff.
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And I was like, is this you know supporting scrap generation in Western nations now?
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And and you know, in China, anywhere that is replacing copper cabling with fiber optics, obviously it will help scrap generation now, but you can't perpetually replace copper uh cabling with fiber optics.
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At some point there will be no copper cable left to replace.
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Um and you know, in the UK I think it was 40,000 tonnes, but if you extrapolate that across Europe, it could be quite a lot of cable.
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Um so it's interesting.
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I I guess there's always new technologies replacing old ones that might see copper become, you know, replaced in certain of these things.
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But it's it's it's interesting, some of these things won't be there forever.
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You can't always do that.
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So it's hard to judge that impact as well.
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It is it's also far too um simplistic to just say there's X amount of copper in the ground.
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You know, we could probably derive fairly reasonable tonnage estimates and value estimates, but the cost of closing down, you know, the um various different roads, the approvals, the permits, and the the equipment, the infrastructure needed to rip, physically rip that copper out is a different matter.
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And obviously, you know, copper's at, like you said, near all-time highs.
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So if ever's the time now, would it would be, but um, you know, it's it's not for me to decide whether or not we're at that that that break point um to to make that viable, uh, economically speaking.
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Um okay, Albert, is there anything thinking the week ahead here as we close out September, maybe anything you've got your eyes on that that we need to tell our listeners about?
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Um yes, I would say the big thing is probably Xi Jinping is in Washington.
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I don't know what day from.
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It's this week um that Xi and and Trump will be meeting.
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And I guess that could be a really, you know, Copper's at uh all-time highs and trade tensions between China and the US are relatively severe at the moment, and there's a lot to discuss, and and maybe maybe we're likely to see a lot of talk of AI and and stuff like that, and rather than the broader trade relationship.
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But if there was a softening or or a hardening of of that trade relationship, um and and I guess also the Iran war and things any any updates on that could really have a have a large role in the copper price.
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I I sort of, like I said at the beginning, the market does seem to shrug off bearish news at the moment.
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But if there were some bullish developments from from she and uh Trump's meeting, you know, you might see prices climb on that or or or or or do well on that.
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So I think that's something I'd I'll be looking out for.
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Um, you know, I mean last week I said to look out for what's interesting is last week I was looking out for the the sort of US Federal Reserve raising their interest rates, and and they did, and I kind of thought that would pressure copper prices just because it pushed the US dollar up.
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Um, but actually fundamental factors had the were having the inverse effect, and that sort of took the focus of the narrative.
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Um, you know, like we're saying with high Chinese import premiums.
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Um, but I think this one seems, you know, if there's a big improvement of trade relationships between the US and China, I think that would be broadly seen as as very positive.
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Um, but yeah, probably not for me to predict what Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are going to agree or not agree on.
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Forecasting is difficult enough, let alone trying to uh anticipate what will be the outcomes of that meeting.
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But um I think useful for our listeners to to keep their eyes and ears um on the lookout for for any updates regarding that.
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Um with that, Albert, let's let's draw us to a close.
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Um I would like to thank you once again for joining your thoughts.
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Uh always a pleasure.
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Um but for now that's all for this episode of Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
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Um, we'll hear from you and uh we'll look forward to hearing uh and seeing everyone uh next week.
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So thanks very much.
00:14:24.879 --> 00:14:29.279
If you found the show useful, follow us on Spotify so you don't miss next week's episode.
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For deeper analysis and data on copper supply, demand and prices, visit benchmarkminerals.com forward slash copper.
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Thanks for listening and join us next week as we break down the latest moves in the copper market.
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Bye for now.
00:00:01.199 --> 00:00:04.639
Hello and welcome to Copper Weekly, a benchmark podcast.
00:00:04.799 --> 00:00:15.359
I'm Michael Finch, Head of Strategic Initiatives, and with me we have Albert Mackenzie, Copper Analyst and Market Reporter, where each week we'll unpack what really moved the copper market and what to watch in the coming days ahead.
00:00:15.519 --> 00:00:17.839
Along the way, we'll be joined by a number of guest speakers.
00:00:17.920 --> 00:00:22.000
So kick back, relax, and enjoy this quick download on Everything Copper.
00:00:22.399 --> 00:00:25.600
Welcome back to episode 17 of Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
00:00:25.679 --> 00:00:26.960
Thanks for tuning in once more.
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We've got Albert joining us.
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Albert, how are you doing?
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I'm doing very well, thank you.
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Had a lovely weekend down in Cornwall.
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I'm terrible at surfing.
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I'm trying to learn.
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That's the the aim, but being in the uh being in the sea in September is very nice in England.
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It's surprisingly warm, right?
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I also went go-karting and I have genuinely hurt my arm by crashing into a wall.
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So uh, you know.
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It was a good good I won the race, so I mean it sort of swings aroundabouts, I guess.
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Well that's important.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Exactly.
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All right, let's get into the the copper market.
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Uh, I mean, my initial take on this, Albert, is we actually saw some significant price gains, right?
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So copper clawed back, a lot of the ground it lost.
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Um, and one could perhaps argue that China might be one of a few uh driving forces uh behind that.
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We've also got sort of a fairly interesting supply debate uh bubbing up as well, which we can dig into.
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But let's start with that recent price uh strength that we've seen.
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Uh perhaps not recovering all the ground, but uh recent increases over the last week and in sort of what your take is on the reasons why.
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Yeah.
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Um actually, interestingly, since I wrote the briefing, the the copper price is really damn close to its all-time high again.
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Um it does seem China's playing a big role in this.
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Uh, we saw import premiums into China hit a four-year high last week, and the arbitrage was really open in in China's favour, you know, so incentivizing imports.
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Um we've seen, you know, in the last week or so, um almost 30,000 tons of cancellations of of LME stock in um in in Asia.
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Um and we spoke I spoke to some Lawrence traders, and it seems like that's because of physical demand in China.
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Um there's a few things.
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Firstly, yeah, you know, the prices dipped below 14,000 last week, which uh seems insane to be a buying incentiviser, the prices being what 39.50 or something, but it seems to do the job at the moment that you know the last few times the price has dipped below 14,000.
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We've seen some buying interests and and and you know demand in China, for example, pick up.
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Um so I guess that's what we're we're we're seeing, and it and the prices have recovered a little bit.
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There is um, I guess we're also approaching Golden Week in China, so there might be buying before before the holidays start as well, I guess.
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Um though it it does seem it does seem to be a little bit more than that.
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And and I guess the more hand-to-mouth, if you if you view the market as as buying hand to mouth, you know, it's more reactive to prices in those moments.
00:03:12.800 --> 00:03:24.080
Um and and interestingly, I read uh an article this morning that noted um we aren't seeing warehouse stocks in inland in China, uh like on land in China.
00:03:24.240 --> 00:03:32.639
LME stock, LME doesn't have any warehouses in China, but so there are certain stocks you can look at in China that sort of give a view of the stock levels in China.
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Those haven't actually gone up with these likely imports into the region.
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Um it seems it seems to be going to physical demand, which is interesting.
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Okay, very good.
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So like you says, maybe some buying signals of copper dipping below 14,000, uh, maybe a little bit of pre-buying activity.
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Is there anything else you you think that could be driving price movement right now?
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I mean, we are seeing it's one of those interesting things where I think sometimes the market doesn't follow fundamentals at the moment entirely.
00:04:01.840 --> 00:04:07.599
Like obviously there is an aspect to which it is, and there's a blurred line between what's not a fundamental and what is.
00:04:07.759 --> 00:04:12.560
Um, but it does certainly seem to be following fundamentals when those fundamentals are bullish.
00:04:12.879 --> 00:04:22.560
Um so I think now we've seen prices go up, I think off the back of the dip, you know, dip buying and demand in China.
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You know, you see the recirculation of those other narratives.
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Um I saw a lot of coverage in the last few weeks about the potential for mined copper supply to be lower this year than last, which would be um rare.
00:04:36.319 --> 00:04:38.319
I don't know the last time that happened.
00:04:38.560 --> 00:04:42.079
Um normally you see year-on-year mine copper growth.
00:04:42.160 --> 00:04:45.199
That's just sort of the the nature of most markets, really.
00:04:45.279 --> 00:04:50.399
It's if if you if people are wanting more of a thing, then more of the thing gets made every year.
00:04:50.639 --> 00:04:56.079
Um, but we you know there has been some reports of a contraction in in mine production.
00:04:56.160 --> 00:04:58.959
We we don't necessarily see it, a benchmark.
00:04:59.120 --> 00:05:07.279
Um, partly because um the second half of the year is tends to be stronger uh than the first half of the year.
00:05:07.439 --> 00:05:12.000
There was a dip um half one this year against half one last year.
00:05:12.160 --> 00:05:27.120
Um, but also we're looking at, you know, there was a lot of disruptions in the second half of last year that fed into the first half of this, you know, Grasburg, Kamucoa, El Teniente, and and in theory, those those mines should be upping production in the second half of the year, returning more to normal.
00:05:27.199 --> 00:05:33.040
And and so, you know, we don't necessarily see that, but it's definitely a narrative that's recirculating.
00:05:33.120 --> 00:05:37.519
Like when when prices go back up, people talk about those issues again.
00:05:37.680 --> 00:05:43.279
And also, I mean, there's been you know a load of coverage on um material heading to the US again.
00:05:43.519 --> 00:06:02.000
Um, you know, there was a a a good Bloomberg article uh this week which mentioned a really big shipload of material heading from uh Africa from the DRC originally, I don't know what port it's actually come from to the US, half a billion dollars worth of material on one boat.
00:06:02.160 --> 00:06:08.560
Um and I can't remember if we mentioned it in the podcast last week, but we we mentioned it in last week's written briefing.
00:06:08.720 --> 00:06:20.319
Um that you know we had expected we, you know, we'd heard from actually I think the same source as Bloomberg Kepler that there was you know lots of material still moving to the US, and and I guess that feeds into that tightness still.
00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:24.480
Um, you know, the market's tight, lots of material moving to the US in that way.
00:06:24.639 --> 00:06:28.879
So um, you know, I guess those stories recirculate now, the price is back up.
00:06:29.199 --> 00:06:30.720
Yeah, yeah, completely agree.
00:06:30.879 --> 00:06:37.519
I want to come back to that point about um or the story that you're reading regarding a contraction to mine production.
00:06:37.600 --> 00:06:48.079
Like you said, it's not necessarily reflected in in benchmark numbers, but what we are seeing, you know, is uh let's say relatively flat or or slower mine production growth as opposed to refined.
00:06:48.240 --> 00:06:53.519
Um what what's behind that sort of relatively robust refined uh production number?
00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:55.439
Um increased scrap usage?
00:06:55.839 --> 00:06:58.800
Yeah, I mean scrap is a is a big part of that.
00:06:58.959 --> 00:07:17.759
Uh higher prices, higher prices incentivize, I mean the sort of assumed logic is higher prices incentivize a rush of material onto the market, but they it's relative high prices because scrap traders will buy relatively underhed and then sell when the price is suitable for them to do so.
00:07:18.000 --> 00:07:30.240
So it's not necessarily, and this is the assumed logic, it's not necessarily that higher prices mean that more things are recycled in the long run, it's just it kind of incentivizes that rush of material onto the market.
00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:45.600
I think there is an element, you know, of obviously if prices are$14,000 a tonne, people start to, you know, try and get more creative and try and eke out more that they more than they would have done previously, and and it's hard to measure those things.
00:07:45.839 --> 00:07:59.680
Um the other thing is also if you want scrap usage to continue being an important part of that narrative, is to consider where that scrap is coming from.
00:07:59.839 --> 00:08:11.199
And I always think, and I remember talking to a concentrate trader about two, three years ago, and he he had this on his height on his site, so it sort of confirms it.
00:08:11.360 --> 00:08:28.879
So maybe it's not, you know, maybe it's not true, maybe it's a confirmation bias that he said this thing and I'm seeing it now in the market, that China is at a point of its industrial cycle where the material initially used 20, 30 years ago is coming back into to the to the market.
00:08:29.360 --> 00:08:46.639
If you look at, you know, you get a cop graph up, if you listen to this, get a graph up of Chinese and global copper usage, it goes crazy, you know, about 20, 30 years ago as as China's industrial start cycle starts really taking off, lots of that's coming back into the system.
00:08:46.879 --> 00:08:51.360
So there's a chance that you know some scrap is just scrap is more available.
00:08:51.440 --> 00:08:53.440
It's really hard to judge, it's really hard to measure.
00:08:53.759 --> 00:08:56.000
Um, but it can't be a silver bullet forever.
00:08:56.159 --> 00:09:08.399
I think maybe that's what what people think is that like if you see growing demand, you know, a scrap supply is never gonna be able to satisfy growing copper demand.
00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:10.639
It can only sort of play a part of that role.
00:09:10.879 --> 00:09:12.799
So I think I think that's interesting as well.
00:09:12.879 --> 00:09:15.919
Um yeah, certainly some people don't think it can it can keep up.
00:09:16.320 --> 00:09:19.840
Yeah, it's a good point regarding so we're talking scrap generation, right?
00:09:19.919 --> 00:09:28.480
So it's uh when you said a lot of that copper that went into the ground, or a lot of that is approaching uh end of life, and a big part of that would be the um the existing grid network.
00:09:28.559 --> 00:09:44.720
And we've done some work at Benchmark to look at um yeah, average um life expectancy for um some of these uh transmission uh and distribution cables and what that means, um certainly the copper-bearing ones, the underground ones, and what that means for for future potential uh scrapples.
00:09:44.879 --> 00:09:51.120
And it's it's really significant, like you said, but it's it's whether or not that will be incentivized enough to effectively rip out the ground.
00:09:51.200 --> 00:10:02.559
And I think there's an article going around at the moment regarding you know, BT sat on a gold mine essentially, um, here in the UK with all the the the old copper cable that they've been putting in over you know many, many decades.
00:10:02.720 --> 00:10:09.039
You know, there's a lot of copper contained uh and copper value sat in the ground, but um is it enough right now to incentivize that.
00:10:09.120 --> 00:10:12.080
And I think that's uh always will be a growing part for recycling.
00:10:12.159 --> 00:10:18.960
But like you said, it's not the uh the be all and end all, it's part of you know closing that gap that we you know we talked about with with Scott.
00:10:19.039 --> 00:10:21.360
It's it's a combination of of all of the above, right?
00:10:21.440 --> 00:10:30.080
So it's a really interesting point, actually, because I I saw that article and I asked uh someone who's quite well informed on European scrap about it, uh about the the BT stuff.
00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:37.279
And I was like, is this you know supporting scrap generation in Western nations now?
00:10:37.759 --> 00:10:49.919
And and you know, in China, anywhere that is replacing copper cabling with fiber optics, obviously it will help scrap generation now, but you can't perpetually replace copper uh cabling with fiber optics.
00:10:50.000 --> 00:10:52.720
At some point there will be no copper cable left to replace.
00:10:52.960 --> 00:11:01.600
Um and you know, in the UK I think it was 40,000 tonnes, but if you extrapolate that across Europe, it could be quite a lot of cable.
00:11:01.759 --> 00:11:03.600
Um so it's interesting.
00:11:03.679 --> 00:11:11.200
I I guess there's always new technologies replacing old ones that might see copper become, you know, replaced in certain of these things.
00:11:11.279 --> 00:11:15.360
But it's it's it's interesting, some of these things won't be there forever.
00:11:15.440 --> 00:11:16.639
You can't always do that.
00:11:16.720 --> 00:11:19.840
So it's hard to judge that impact as well.
00:11:20.159 --> 00:11:26.240
It is it's also far too um simplistic to just say there's X amount of copper in the ground.
00:11:26.320 --> 00:11:42.320
You know, we could probably derive fairly reasonable tonnage estimates and value estimates, but the cost of closing down, you know, the um various different roads, the approvals, the permits, and the the equipment, the infrastructure needed to rip, physically rip that copper out is a different matter.
00:11:42.399 --> 00:11:45.360
And obviously, you know, copper's at, like you said, near all-time highs.
00:11:45.440 --> 00:11:55.759
So if ever's the time now, would it would be, but um, you know, it's it's not for me to decide whether or not we're at that that that break point um to to make that viable, uh, economically speaking.
00:11:55.919 --> 00:12:05.360
Um okay, Albert, is there anything thinking the week ahead here as we close out September, maybe anything you've got your eyes on that that we need to tell our listeners about?
00:12:05.840 --> 00:12:11.519
Um yes, I would say the big thing is probably Xi Jinping is in Washington.
00:12:11.600 --> 00:12:12.879
I don't know what day from.
00:12:13.279 --> 00:12:20.320
It's this week um that Xi and and Trump will be meeting.
00:12:20.559 --> 00:12:39.200
And I guess that could be a really, you know, Copper's at uh all-time highs and trade tensions between China and the US are relatively severe at the moment, and there's a lot to discuss, and and maybe maybe we're likely to see a lot of talk of AI and and stuff like that, and rather than the broader trade relationship.
00:12:39.519 --> 00:12:53.759
But if there was a softening or or a hardening of of that trade relationship, um and and I guess also the Iran war and things any any updates on that could really have a have a large role in the copper price.
00:12:53.919 --> 00:12:59.440
I I sort of, like I said at the beginning, the market does seem to shrug off bearish news at the moment.
00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:10.320
But if there were some bullish developments from from she and uh Trump's meeting, you know, you might see prices climb on that or or or or or do well on that.
00:13:10.399 --> 00:13:13.200
So I think that's something I'd I'll be looking out for.
00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:27.519
Um, you know, I mean last week I said to look out for what's interesting is last week I was looking out for the the sort of US Federal Reserve raising their interest rates, and and they did, and I kind of thought that would pressure copper prices just because it pushed the US dollar up.
00:13:27.600 --> 00:13:34.399
Um, but actually fundamental factors had the were having the inverse effect, and that sort of took the focus of the narrative.
00:13:34.559 --> 00:13:37.759
Um, you know, like we're saying with high Chinese import premiums.
00:13:38.080 --> 00:13:48.960
Um, but I think this one seems, you know, if there's a big improvement of trade relationships between the US and China, I think that would be broadly seen as as very positive.
00:13:49.120 --> 00:13:55.519
Um, but yeah, probably not for me to predict what Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are going to agree or not agree on.
00:13:55.919 --> 00:14:01.120
Forecasting is difficult enough, let alone trying to uh anticipate what will be the outcomes of that meeting.
00:14:01.200 --> 00:14:08.559
But um I think useful for our listeners to to keep their eyes and ears um on the lookout for for any updates regarding that.
00:14:08.720 --> 00:14:11.200
Um with that, Albert, let's let's draw us to a close.
00:14:11.360 --> 00:14:14.399
Um I would like to thank you once again for joining your thoughts.
00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:15.840
Uh always a pleasure.
00:14:15.919 --> 00:14:19.039
Um but for now that's all for this episode of Benchmarks Copper Weekly.
00:14:19.120 --> 00:14:23.120
Um, we'll hear from you and uh we'll look forward to hearing uh and seeing everyone uh next week.
00:14:23.279 --> 00:14:24.399
So thanks very much.
00:14:24.879 --> 00:14:29.279
If you found the show useful, follow us on Spotify so you don't miss next week's episode.
00:14:29.519 --> 00:14:36.399
For deeper analysis and data on copper supply, demand and prices, visit benchmarkminerals.com forward slash copper.
00:14:36.639 --> 00:14:40.879
Thanks for listening and join us next week as we break down the latest moves in the copper market.
00:14:41.279 --> 00:14:42.320
Bye for now.
