Challenging Climate
Challenging Climate
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42. David Stainforth on climate models and uncertainty

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David Stainforth is a Professorial Research Fellow at the London School of Economics. David has had a long career studying the climate problem and the challenges of making predictions of future climate change. His research spans the philosophy of climate science, climate economics, climate modelling, and decision-making under deep uncertainty.

In this episode, we discuss David’s new book ‘Predicting our climate future’, exploring the challenges of making predictions about future climate change, and navigating this uncertainty to address climate problems.

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00:00:33Intro and background
00:01:27Main messages of 'Predicting our Climate Future'
00:07:35Weather vs Climate prediction models
00:11:25Will we ever be certain that our climate models are “correct”?
00:13:40The Butterfly effect
00:18:27Can’t higher resolution models fix all our uncertainty problems?
00:21:32Shortfalls of current inter-model comparisons
00:24:39When did anthropogenic climate change become certain?
00:27:56Can climate models inform climate adaptation and policy decisions?
00:33:35What’s the one thing you’d improve on current climate modelling?
00:36:08It’s an interdisciplinary problem
00:39:50What gives you optimism?

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