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In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure.
With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam.
Chapters
00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome
01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3%
02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil
11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus
12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull?
15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth
22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs
23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs
26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook
30:35 – Who Is Buying the Debt?
32:27 – Late-Cycle Rally, Concentration Risk & What Could Break It
36:27 – Q3 Earnings Preview: 29.5% Growth Led by Energy, Tech & Communication Services
39:14 – AI Earnings, Bank Dealmaking & Estimate Revisions
42:20 – Returns on CapEx: Free Cash Flow & Hyperscaler Financing
44:32 – September Attribution: Fundamentals & Fee Revenue Drive Altcoin Gains
45:41 – Sector Dispersion: DeFi Outpaces Equities, Bitcoin Dominance Holds Near 60%
48:23 – Innovation Exemption & the Regulatory Catalyst Pipeline
59:31 – Week Ahead: Bank Earnings, CPI, PPI & ETF Flows
