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Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner this week to talk about the market tape defined by two things happening at once: a violent volatility shock concentrated in semiconductors, and an earnings season that is quietly the strongest in years. The Leopold liquidation drove SOX single-stock volatility to 75% much higher than the S&P 500 Index in general. With 305 of 498 S&P 500 companies reported for Q2 2026, sales are beating by 3.1% and earnings by 31.1%, and forward EPS is modeled to climb from trailing 294 per share to 374 per share, pulling the index P/E from 25.4 trailing to roughly 19.9 forward PE. Looking ahead to SpaceX earnings and discussing Kevin Warsh telling reporters let the market decide!
Leopold liquidation pushed SOX single-stock volatility to 75%, only the third time ever per Warren Pies.
The prior two 75% readings, March 2020 and April 2025, led to big gains per Warren Pies
Semis inside the S&P 500 carry a median 30-day implied vol of 87.5% versus 36.1% for the index.
Q2 2026 earnings season: 305 of 498 S&P 500 names have been reported.
Aggregate earnings are beating by 31.1% and sales by 3.1%, the biggest surprise in recent quarters.
Consumer Discretionary (+121%) and Communications (+99%) led the earnings surprises.
Utilities were the only sector with a negative sales surprise, at -1.5%.
S&P 500 forward EPS is estimated at 374 versus trailing 294 actual, up 27%.
That earnings growth takes the index P/E from 25.4, trailing down to 19.9 on forward estimates.
Apple traded down about $26 on the day to roughly $307.55.
Apple's combination of falling price and slightly lowered guidance still compressing its P/E to 32.5.
Jurian Timmer at Fidelity notes that the Mag 7 payout ratio has been falling and now sits at +17%.
What is the payout ratio and how do buybacks plus dividends account for percent of EPS paid out
Week 32 earnings include Palantir, Toyota, Caterpillar, AMD, Disney, Uber, Shopify and Airbnb.
Also reporting: Lilly, Novo Nordisk, McDonald's, Pfizer, CVS, DoorDash, Lyft and Take-Two.
Did Apple get cheaper?
Is Apple sandbagging to help the new CEO? (a sarcastic take)
Mentioned in this Episode
Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT
