2026 Midterms: What Polls Miss | Seth Keshel, Seth Leibsohn, Joel Pollak, & Gary Gygi

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speaker-1: Visit jace.com and use code FUTURE at checkout for ten dollars off your order. That's FUTURE at J A S E.com. To run a successful business, you need one thing, customers. And how do you get customers? You get them through advertising. You get them through lead generation. But what happens if the leads don't exist or they don't have valid contact information? This is a familiar story all businesses deal with. Then they call these leads who don't exist, or they're bad numbers, or they're not in their service area. Argus 101 verifies every lead before your team picks up the phone. It's a real person in your area and a neighborhood that matches your ideal customer. Your team only calls people worth calling, thus saving you money. Free trial at Argus101.com. That's A-R-G-U-S-101.com. Help your business expand today, go to Argus101.com. A R G U S One O One.com. Welcome to another exciting edition of Breaking Battlegrounds. Our first guest today is Seth Cashel. He is he's in he's in he's really came across my attention following the elections, and you should all follow him as well. And you can find him at X at Real S-K-E-S-H-E-L. And he also has a Substack account at Real S-K-E-S-H-E-L. Seth, welcome to the show.
speaker-3: Well thanks Chuck, glad to be on with you.
speaker-1: So I ca I really sort of hate this time of year of just all the polling coming out. I i it just i I was talking to a friend last night who just sort of, you know, like a lot of normal Americans, starts paying attention to the last two or three weeks and they're just so baffled by the polling. And my gut tells me the polling's really wrong, not that Republicans are gonna have a tsunami, I think, but I just think it's really wrong. Tell me where you think the polling's been off and how do you think we'll do in the Senate and go state by state.
speaker-3: Look, the the polling just doesn't even align with anything i under realistic circumstances anymore. Kansas is a perfect example this morning. You know, people are spending a lot of energy being worried about Texas and and worried about more traditional states that ha that are more competitive, like Michigan. if you really want to feel better about the quality of the polling, check the polling with vibes and reality on states like Kansas. Okay. Kansas is a perfect example. There's a poll out today. run by one of the major newspapers that has Adam Hamilton up by ten points in Kansas over Roger Marshall. Of course, this is accompanied with news by people like Mark Halper and saying that the Republicans have conceded Kansas. Look, Kansas is a Trump plus 16 state. If the Republicans were conceding Kansas, they've already conceded the entire midterms and we know that's not the case. look, here's the deal with Kansas is the Republicans have already cast more early votes than they had at this date in 2022. Republicans have an almost four hundred thousand voter registration edge over over Democrats in Kansas. And the difference is Democrats are front loading their votes in the early voting period. Election day, you're going to have 800,000 or more votes that are cast in Kansas. They're going to go overwhelmingly Republican. So the polling, number one, by honest people even, it's undercounting white voters and they're not answering polls. The crazy Democrat polls now are coming with disclaimers showing that they're having a very hard time getting traditional Republicans to even answer polls. So the polls are made up of enthusiastic Democrats who want to answer these polls. It's called a response bias. And you see it in all these states. You see it in Texas too. you know, I saw a poll where Paxton was down by two in the Senate race, but the poll that had him down two only had Paxton with a plus fifteen margin with white voters. No Texas Republican has failed to get at least a third white voters down all the way back to nineteen ninety four. So, you c you can look at these polls. I honestly they mean very little to me. they mean less to me now than they meant in twenty twenty four, and that's not saying a lot. So I do think, based on your question, that Republicans are still the fundamental favorite to hold the Senate. The Democrats have to have a lot of things go right and I think that their chances to win the Senate if they don't pull Maine, I think that they're gonna have a very difficult time getting the majority.
speaker-1: What Senate seat for Republicans should they truly worry about? What are one or two that they should r worry about?
speaker-3: Well, the one that I was most worried about in my forecast, my substack is actually Captain K dot US. The the one I was about was Alaska. So I'm talking about Republican defenses. Right. I've already written off North Carolina as a likely loss. So I'm not I'm not talking about that. I don't I don't feel like the Republicans have the rural turnout necessary to be able to give Osoff a run for his money in Georgia. I think Minnesota is more than likely fool's goal for the GOP, although I do think that Tefoy is could make this very close. I think New Hampshire is gonna go with its tradition of running towards Democrats when Republicans are are in office. I think that'll be a marginally close race. But the one that that made me the most worried was Alaska, and that was because of the ranked choice voting issue rated on election integrity. I'm one of the only forecasters out there that includes election laws and election integrity in my forecasts. it's given me a lot of lot of grief from the media, but the point is I got it all right in twenty twenty four. So Sullivan and Peltola, I I tipped that race 55-45 for Sullivan in my ratings just based on the strength of Trump's margins there, based on what I think are solidified trends and Republicans maintaining the voter registration edge. But I do believe that Peltola ha had a chance to win that race. I think that her chances are less than they were based on the scandal that came out this week. But Alaska's elections are a real disaster. Peltola fortunately has very terrible turnout coming out of the rural areas. And Alaska's one of the rare states where the rurals have a lot of Democrat vote, because you're talking about the native Alaskan. Sure. That was the one that gave me the most worries. And then of course, Texas will give anybody worries because it's been a nonstop barrage of narratives and polls, from people that have never seen Texas blue, but they think that they know what it looks like when early votes are coming in.
speaker-1: Tell give give our audience some examples where the polling was so wrong in twenty twenty four and comparable now. May can Kansas may be an example. But g give them some example. And then if you can't, why do you do you think the polling's incorrect for malicious reasons or just incompetence or they don't want to spend the money to get it right?
speaker-3: So look, I th I think poll I think there are honest pollsters out there that are still hit with the limitations of polling. Polling is a business. Okay. So so my wife is a state representative here in Arizona. Whenever you need to get something done politically, you hire a consultant. Then the consultant may recommend a number of things. He may recommend polling. Now polling I think can still be useful if it's about topics and issues. Correct. Minnesota's a good example. I saw some polls floating around where they had the fraud issue listed as the numbers mines. All right. That makes yeah, people are less likely to to jump on a poll that's in elections and probably be a little more on that issues, especially since issues impact both sides. You know, they just may have a different way of viewing the issue. But then there are malicious polls. There's polls that are internal polls that are designed to get funds out of people, you know, so a Democrat that knows they're gonna lose a race by ten points is gonna commission a poll and show down three with everybody under fifty percent. You c you can have a number of that, then you have the the media. I think the Democrats are also doing a new thing this year. I think that people are rigging the rigging the betting market odds. I think that there's big whales. I saw a seven hundred sixteen thousand dollar bet on Talarico the other day on one of the platforms. And I think that you have people that are I think you have people number one that are putting big big drops on candidates to to swing markets, but also you have stuff like this going on in Kansas. If you really want to get conspiratorial, look, Roger Marshall should win his Senate race in Kansas and I don't even think it'll be that close. But you you have the the race now. I bet you today after these polls, I bet Hamilton is favored in the race. All right. So somebody that truly sees the fundamentals, sees that Republicans in Kansas are actually voting and thinks Marshall will win the race can now buy Marshall shares and double their money. And it depending on how low he goes, they could triple their money. So I think people are also throwing these odds in the media and the in the polling outfits to then bet on the people they know that will win at much lower pricing. So the worst example for polling in twenty twenty four was Ann Seltzer in Iowa. Yes. She was considered the gold standard of polling. She had good good performance on the two Trump runs in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty and in primaries. All right. Then she also had Trump plus eighteen over Biden in the summer in twenty twenty four. And then somehow I'm supposed I'm supposed to believe that four months later Iowa's margin for president swung twenty one points because she came out three. it at the very tail end, right a couple days before the election. And that threw all the markets into a frenzy because if you're gonna lose Iowa or be close on Iowa in Wisconsin, you're gonna do bad in the Midwest election. So I knew it was Newt Gingrich emailed me that night worried about the poll and I ran all my fundamentals past him. All 100 counties in Iowa were were more Republican, I think ninety nine counties actually. All the counties in Iowa were more Republican than they were in twenty twenty by voter registration or less Democrat, meaning they're going to go for Trump by bigger margins and and sure enough, Trump won by thirteen points. So it's hard for me to take polls seriously when they're off by sixteen points when when you would think that somebody would get these polls that look so off and be like, I'm just throwing this out. It would be like a chef that pulls something out of the oven and knows it ain't right, right? You're not gonna put it on the table.
speaker-1: Do let's talk about these predictive markets for a minute. I want to get back to the polling, but I want to talk these predictive markets. Do you think these are good? I I I I I see them and you know, I I'm not sure how many of the average voters see them, which I don't think are many, but I do think they provide the the theme for the press. What are your thoughts and should we just stop should we ban these in elections?
speaker-3: I don't know about banning the markets. they were in in twenty twenty four they were useful because at the end of it, Trump was favored in the battleground states that he won. but it's like any other good thing. somebody's gonna eventually figure out a way to ruin it. The Democrats have figured out how to ruin ranked choice voting in three cycles. Now now that was deliberate why they put it in in the first place in Alaska. All right, but with the betting markets, the they're they're they're I thought initially that they were being swayed by polls. where people don't know how to read other fundamentals of elections. They don't know how to look at voter registration data or turnout information or look at historical facts. You know, we have more access to information and AI than anyone who's ever lived before, but we're probably dumber as a people than ever before. Right. So, you know, when when you look when you look at all this stuff, you know, people have figured out a way to pollute the markets now. Where I can tell you that there are a number of Republicans that have probably forty percent odds to win their house seats that are at ten cents per share. Because I thought I thought it was polling dragging this. Now I'm not so confident that there's not some really heavy hands laying on the scales too.
speaker-1: And they know it it and and the people who are putting money on this absolutely know this weighs on the narrative the press gets. you see they use it all the time now. It's it's remarkable.
speaker-3: Right. Well if you look at Texas fundamentally what look well fundamentally with Texas, here's the pathway. So every state has a red pathway and a blue pathway. It may only exist in on the back of a napkin. You know, it may not be practical how it works. But if a Democrat were to win Texas, we're talking about Trump plus fourteen Texas. If a Democrat were to win it in the modern day, it would require three things to happen. And and there's no no way around it. You would have to have per rural turnout. These are These white counties, white population counties in Texas, and now a lot of the Hispanic population counties that are rural or exurban. They are eighty-five fifteen kind of Republican counties. Trump won 183 counties by more than fifty points in Texas in 2024. And they do not bend. They don't have a white vote that's gonna break off. You're gonna get a one to one Abbott Paxton ratio. All right, there's maybe ten counties where Tal Rico has the possibility to have a big split from Abbott, like they had in with the Cruz Abbott ticket in twenty eighteen. Then you would have to have a reversion of the Hispanic vote margins back ten years ago, which isn't likely to happen either. So, you know, this is this is where you look at the actual votes, and if they happen, then they're unlikely, but you still got people that have Paxton at thirty three percent odds, even though Texas Republicans have won every race there since nineteen ninety eight. So something doesn't add up to me here. I think Tal Rico maybe has a ceiling of one if all the stars aligned.
speaker-1: You cut out on that. What what's his ceiling again? K Telarico?
speaker-3: I would say one percent or less. Normally when a when a red state flips to a blue state out of an upset or vice versa, you have a very tilt margin with the candidate that won under fifty percent. So I I don't see any of this crazy four or five point, six point margins for Tal Rico going on, especially since the Republican counties are going to far surpass their twenty twenty two midterm turnout.
speaker-1: Quickly here, we've got about thirty seconds left in the segment. W what are the two states in the back east voters should be looking at to see if there's a blue or a red tsunami? Do you feel?
speaker-3: Well, it's and it's it it's gonna be disjointed this year. Not even Florida's gonna be predictive of anything. Right.
speaker-1: Okay.
speaker-3: Florida has low turnout. Yeah.
speaker-1: That's fantastic. Seth, how do people follow you? And then we'll come back to the next segment and talk more. How do people follow you?
speaker-3: Well on X I'm at Real S. Keshel. My newsletter which is which is humming right now is CaptainK dot US. That's Captain K's Corner, the number six fastest growing newsletter on substance.
speaker-1: Fantastic folks. This is Breaking Battlegrounds. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds. We're continuing our conversation with Seth Cassell. He you can find him, folks, on X at Real S-K-E-S-H-E-L. Seth, Arizona. I I get you know, we're here, we're both here. What do you think happens on election day? What's polling missing? what are you looking at?
speaker-3: Well, Arizona is one of the states where Republicans are performing well. Can you hear me?
speaker-1: Yes, yes.
speaker-3: Okay. I've got a a spinning wheel of death on my screen in front of me to make sure nothing was off. Arizona's one of those states where Republicans are performing
speaker-5: Four.
speaker-3: well relative to past cycles and also with the with the knowledge that this is a supposed to be a tough year for Republicans in general. Arizona, the the problem we have in Arizona statewide with the governor is that Arizona reelects in incumbent governors. Yes. So in order to get Hobbes out, we're gonna have to run a t a total for turnout with early voting plus election day probably or plus six or more to have a shot, R plus eight, nine to feel really good about that. but Arizona gets more Republican as you go down the ballot. So I think that that the the goals here beyond winning all of it to win some of the statewide offices and to can maintain control of the legislature. right now you're seeing some mixed results with the drops. They started out really hot, Republicans did in Maricopa County, and since then have cooled off a bit because I think that Democrat voters are also shifting their tendencies to go vote in person when the polls open too. election day here should be overwhelmingly Republican. There's a lot more high prop Republicans that haven't voted yet than than high prop Democrats. So there is the potential for some surprises. I don't think Hobbes is the overwhelming favorite that the polls have made her out to be. I think she has a relatively low ceiling for success here. I don't think that she's gonna run off on a Janet Napolitano margin. And with that, then you've got the opportunity for good things to happen down ticket for the G O P.
speaker-1: Once these all these early ballots are counted in, so I think t is there a last drop today? Is today the last drop? that though the Maricopa County, for example, will drop today the numb new numbers. Is that today or is it Monday? Okay.
speaker-3: Maricopa should make a drop, yes.
speaker-1: So what are the numbers so when that's all done, tell our audience what numbers what turnout should we be looking at with unaffiliated Republicans, Democrats and then What type of turnout do Republicans need on election day do you think so we can have a modicum of success here? keep the legislature and win some statewides?
speaker-3: Well, Republicans are almost Republicans are almost three points ahead of where they were on this date in twenty twenty-two. So over election day, of course, was overwhelmingly Republican. Trump had everyone vote early and by mail that he could get in twenty twenty four. so election day wasn't as strong as it was. But looking at states like Kansas, Iowa, Florida, Texas, it looks to me like a lot of Republicans are planning on voting on Election Day. So I think that I think that by the time we get updated figures, I think Arizona will probably be R plus two by election day. and and then and then when you get it through election day I'm looking at probably R plus five or R plus six. Now we are also two and a half points more Republican today as a state than in twenty twenty two when we had the Hops Lake election.
speaker-1: so what state wise would you feel comfortable saying you think Republicans pick up in Arizona?
speaker-3: Well, if if we get a high enough R plus, then you can potentially look at all of them. Sure. Hobbs is despite being an incumbent, I don't think she's a very strong incumbent. Arizona was very close in twenty twenty two for attorney general. All right. That was Chris Mays versus Abraham Hamida, two hundred and eighty ballots. And there were also nine thousand provisional ballots that would have gone eighty twenty Republican that were left uncounted. So I think that Mays is definitely at risk. She's been running a lot of lot of publicity out there trying to court Trump voters as if they would have any interest in supporting somebody who's essentially trying to lock up, you know, people like the so-called fake electors. and then you have Alex Colladin for Secretary of State. Colladin's run a really good campaign. He's been going after Democrat groups as well, you know, starting to understand the message of trimming these urban margins. So I think I think Alex Colladin has a good shot at at beating Adrian Fontez if the turnout numbers shake out on election day like people are looking for.
speaker-1: do you think Republicans keep the Senate seat in South Carolina? the polling there just it's like it was for Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham last time he ran, he was down two points, he's up a point at pointing by what, eight or nine, I think, in South Carolina. And now we have Darlene Graham and I've talked to people involved closely with the campaign and they just said it's gonna be close. What are your thoughts?
speaker-3: Yeah, I I do think that that Graham will hold the seat. Lindsey Graham had tight polls in twenty twenty essentially showing a tie that he won by a lot. Now, deep South white voters are just like East Texas and and West Texas white voters, or they're very inelastic. So as long as they come out and vote, you can count on them voting a Republican down ballot. South Carolina doesn't really have a lot of swingy white voters. If they get poor black turnout, they're definitely not gonna be in the game. then you have a lot of growth in places like Myrtle Beach and Charleston from people that are moving down to South Carolina and they're a lot more like the Florida types than you get from the people that move to Georgia and North Carolina. So I think that Darl I think that that Graham will hold the seat. I don't know that it'll be a spectacular margin. She is is not really, in my view, a great candidate. Right. But I also think that she'll get a lot of the sympathy vote due to Lindsay.
speaker-1: What do you think happens in Florida with the Senate and the governor's race?
speaker-3: Well, the Senate race will be a a bloodbath. There's gonna be a large election day vote. Like I said, Republicans normally run off well not by normally, you know, Florida's only recently been a blowout Republican state starting in twenty twenty two. All right, but people were watching the early vote tracker in twenty twenty, big time, right, before we knew Trump would have a decent margin of victory in twenty twenty. And when it finally flipped over, got close to, you know close to R plus turnout when it was still a D plus state, everybody was excited. Well now it's R plus two. I thought it would be a few points higher than that. I think you have a bigger election day surge, but also nobody looks at Florida as a battleground anymore. There's not all this turnout machine dollars being spent there. So it looks a little bit tepid, which is why before the break, you know, I told you I don't know that anything on the East Coast is going to be fully predictive of the rest of the country. not not so much like a presidential election where everybody's got a full turnout.
speaker-1: How did you get into this?
speaker-3: But to answer your question, I think that Ashley Moody, you know, Ashley Moody, if there would have been massive turnout, I think could have won every county in Florida against this clown that she's running against. She'll still win by mid double digits probably. but I don't know that it'll be a monster GOP turnout to get you something that's just you know put her. Byron Donald's the same thing. Well you know, I figured he would have been a double digit win. I'm not so sure that he'll make ten just because turnout's not gonna be through the roof.
speaker-1: did you get into this business? how did you decide I'm gonna start being doing analytics on elections? What what drove you to it?
speaker-2: I'm
speaker-3: Well, I've always been a numbers guy. I was a baseball stats guy for a a perennial top ten college baseball program at Old Miss. I became an army intelligence officer. I've always understood trends numbers over a large geographic span, then in combat, now in in politics. And after the twenty twenty election, which I believe by the changing of the laws in twenty twenty, I was pulled in to all these analytics groups to to understand what happened in the twenty twenty election. And and here I am. wound up with a large platform. A lot of people helped me get there. The president of the United States put me out there. And I've been able to merge the discipline of being able to understand what's happened with the law and why the ballot counts are now inflated in certain places. And also combined with with various political trends in history. I believe trends in history tell us a lot more about politics than polls do and narratives.
speaker-1: Have you always enjoyed politics?
speaker-3: Well, I I considered it a a thing that every man who loves this country ought to practice. You know, John John Adams had a had a really good quote about that. and I'm I'm gonna read it to you. if I can find it. It's it's a
speaker-1: We've got thir we've got thirty seconds left here.
speaker-3: John Adams said I I must study politics in war that I must study politics in war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain. So I think that people that don't pay attention to politics are doing the country major disaster.
speaker-1: I agree. Seth, thanks a million. This is Breaking Battlegrounds. We'll be right back. To run a successful business, you need one thing, customers. And how do you get customers? You get them through advertising. You get them through lead generation. But what happens if the leads don't exist or they don't have valid contact information? This is a familiar story all businesses deal with. Then they call these leads who don't exist, or they're bad numbers, or they're not in their service area. Argus 101 verifies every lead before your team picks up the phone. It's a real person in your area and a neighborhood that matches your ideal customer. Your team only calls people worth calling, thus saving you money. Free trial at Argus101.com. That's arguing.com. Help your business expand today. Go to argus101.com. A-R-G-U-S-101.com. Hello Breaking Battlegrounds listeners. Did you know that private student loan debt in the United States totals about $300 billion? That's with a B. About $45 billion of that is labeled as distressed, which means people are behind on payments. Why ReFi, who is a proud sponsor of our show, refinances this distress or defaulted private student loans that others won't touch. They don't even care what your credit score is, they provide you with a custom loan payment. Based on your ability to pay, YReFi is not a debt settlement company. They work with each borrower individually to tailor a loan that meets your specific financial situation and helps you pay this loan off. So, folks, if you would like to learn more how to put your mind at ease and your budget back on track, call YReFi at 877-400-9989 and tell them Sam and Chuck sent you. You can go and look into them at YReFi. refy.com to get more information. They will help you reduce your monthly payment and guarantee interest rates under 6%, ensuring financial relief to you as you pay off your private student loan. Jump on that website or call them today.
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speaker-1: What do you have this week besides being chased by wild pigs in the desert?
speaker-5: Traumatizing. I don't I don't think those things are blind. Actually I know they're not blind.
speaker-1: Folks, B was canvasing and thought she saw a dog because if you don't know, she is literally blinder than a bat. And got five feet within a javelina and it chased you. Yeah.
speaker-5: Yeah.
speaker-1: Jeremy's in there just freaking out. So little and folks, if you don't know, B is a buck f a buck o five if wet. she's being chased by javelina, which Jeremy, what'd you guess? Are ninety, hundred pounds, these things? Yeah, and nasty. And they're nasty. Maybe make this
speaker-5: I did not approach it.
speaker-1: So when so when you come to Arizona, I I'm a transplant. They everybody tells you about the javelinas. They they they it's like it's like it's like on the top three things, right? We're we're in a desert, it's hot in the summer and there's javalinas and just don't get near right? Yep. So you did the you did the serpentine.
speaker-5: my gosh. I was walking and that thing snuck out and I was like, Is that a dog? And I'm blind. I I we know that. I get it from my mama. I am blind. And I i it was a javelina. I was like, that's not a dog. So I start running this way. It starts chasing me. And I'm like thinking in my head, aren't these things blind running a zigzag? So I'm zigzagging it, right? And this thing i it's it's going with me. It knew where I was. It is not blind. That was not a blind
speaker-1: Well it's also not an alligator. So if you get chased by a gator, they tell you to do serpentine. folks, serpentines we zigzag, right? Because gators can't do that. That's what they tell you to do. but so you got away from it. How fast are they, by the way? You're you're the real life example now. How fast is a javelina?
speaker-5: That thing's fast. That thing is fast. I I got away from it from a lady pulling up in her very nice Range Rover to come save me. She pulls up and she and I was in a nicer neighborhood, so I was like, okay, maybe I'm not gonna get kidnapped right now. But she's she's literally like, Are you okay? my gosh, get in! Cause it w it started
speaker-1: So so did she see the Hevelina too?
speaker-5: That's why she literally invited me in her car and drove me down the street to get away from it.
speaker-1: This was like an extraction. And folks, just so you know, you're not gonna be able to kidnap B with a white van. Just bring up a Range Rover. She'll jump in with anybody with a Range Rover, right?
speaker-5: Really nice and your car's really nice. I I'm trusting.
speaker-1: All right. So near death experience, trying to turn out voters. B was out there blind, does not see the javelina. She gets chased. They're faster than she thinks. He can't serpentine with them. That's only for gaiters. No white band comes up but a range rover, which she gladly got into, and that's the story today.
speaker-5: Yeah. I it ended okay. I'm I'm alive to tell it and I'm here to tell you guys respect your canvassers 'cause they are out there in the wild. The actual wild.
speaker-1: I know we have not got to be's moment, but years ago we had canvassers in Montana and this guy called me and he says, I can't get out of my car and I go, Why? He goes, There's a moose outside my door and he's not letting me out of my car and you know, they can hurt you. Yeah. Right? So we've heard all sorts of stories over the years. I remember years ago was down in Georgia campaigning and they had the front page news, Gator tears candidates' trousers. And you know, it it's just you know, it's just what it is. So anyway we have taken your time today, but what what's the quick's the quick story we got here of murder mayhem?
speaker-5: There was a woman in T er in Arizona that they thought they found. She was dis she disappeared for two years. They thought it was her her significant other that had something to do with it. He's under suspicion.
speaker-1: He's under suspicion. Significant others, the first one we go to. Yeah.
speaker-5: So authorities in Tijuana, Mexico reached out saying that they thought this woman was alive. Her name was Shayna Feynman and she was thirty eight years old at the time she disappeared back in twenty twenty four and unfortunately after all the uproar letting all US authorities know that she's alive before DNA tests were done and confirming was done and our family's hopes got up and all, it was confirmed it was not her. So they did not
speaker-1: So it wasn't her. You know, when I I think I sent you this story. You did. And when I looked at the picture, I kept thinking, she doesn't look like her.
speaker-5: No. This her sister said it too. Her sister was like, This is not her. She's like, I don't trust it until I am looking at my sister.
speaker-1: It really doesn't look like her. I hate when you see on social media go, This person looks like this celebrity, right? And you're like that looks nothing like that celebrity, right? People are funny. Yeah, well that's interesting. Okay. So she's still missing. The significant other we still give the stink eye to. We think he may have Well he was like a side eye. if he had really done it, which we don't know, I'm sure he was just doing a big sigh of relief saying, well, yeah, I'm off the hook for a while here.
speaker-5: Yeah. That's just it's sad. Nobody there's never never that big step in the case that they're
speaker-1: Hundreds of thousands of those cases in the United States. Hundreds of thousands.
speaker-5: It's so sad.
speaker-1: Folks, this is Breaking Battlegrounds. We're gonna come back with our final episode here on radio with Joel Polak. He is the ex opinion editor of the California Post, and we're gonna talk about his new book coming out, Scott Adams, A Life of Purpose and Principle. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the final segment for Breaking Battlegrounds. We are honored to have with us today one of my dear friends and the host of the Seth Lee Lee show show. Sorry, tongue twister here this morning on nine sixty the Patriot. You can hear him every week, Monday through Friday from four to six PM on the Patriot. And this is our station. Seth, welcome.
speaker-2: So good to be with you. How are you, Chuck?
speaker-1: I'm doing good, I'm doing good. So, we have out this morning I know we we're doing election show folks on Monday, which we asked you to turn into. CNN has now, based on the Cook report, moved more seats, twelve more House seats towards Democrats, which they project that we'll flip twenty-five House seats and give the re Democrats a majority. What do you think if we lose the Senate in the House we can be looking at here the next two years?
speaker-2: fantastic question. And the obvious answer to begin with is going to be obviously impeachment. We're going to be looking at impeachment first and foremost. There's no question about that. I think I would direct everyone to today's Wall Street Journal to read a piece by one of the greatest public intellectuals of our age, a man named Hadley Arkis, A-R-K-E-S. He's a Emeritus professor from Amherst, and one of the great legal scholars of our age. And he details about five different laws that the Democrats have been trying to pass in the House of Representatives, taking us back to a regime of transgenderism, taking us back to a regime of wim boys in women's bathrooms, boys in women's sports, men in w young women's sports, schools not having to report the children's decisions at school to the parents. So this whole business that was such a big deal in twenty twenty four for Donald Trump about what was the phrase, Kamala is for they them, President Trump
speaker-1: Are you? Yes.
speaker-2: That is going to be back in full force if the Democrats take the House and or the Senate. So for those that, you know, don't care particularly much about the culture wars, particularly people who are listening to this show, I gotta remind they care about you. These culture wars care about you. And if that was a big motivator in twenty twenty four, you better think about it for Tuesday.
speaker-1: So let's talk about polling here for a minute. So the Washington Post put out a poll this morning that they said they made eighty five thousand phone calls and nearly fifty thousand text messages. And they said the Democrats were historically more prone to talk to pollsters than Republicans. And the Post, by their own admission, said their polling is sh is suspect, which shows Hamilton, the Democrat fifty-two and Marshall forty-three. Shouldn't there be some journalistic standards that if you think your poll is suspect, that you do not release it, even if you spent money on it?
speaker-2: Well, the problem is in the predicate of your question, assuming there's such a thing as journalistic standards anyway. Should there be? Yes or should
speaker-1: Yes, yes.
speaker-2: be. and this is why people like you and I love talk radio, because we like to think that though we are opinionated, we would never do something like that without full and obvious disclosure. And whenever we're wrong, we will promptly admit it, as they say. And it's not too often that we have to, but we're delighted to. That's that's one issue. But if anyone and this is a real concern of mine, because I think it makes politics impossible, Chuck. If any one of us and again, typical listeners of shows to yours or shows to mine, like mine, if any of our typical listeners are engaging in a political discussion with someone and that someone gets their news from CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post, CBS, that person thinks they're really well informed.
speaker-1: Yes.
speaker-2: In fact, they're really misinformed. And that's what makes politics so difficult. And what you cited is just one of many, many examples of where this is going to be true. So yes, there should be a journalistic set of standards. I often read the journalist creed from the early nineteen hundreds, which is printed and emblazoned at the National Press Club in DC. You will see no bearing of resemblance between the original journalists. Creed that came out of the Missouri School of Journalism and today's journalism. No semblance whatsoever.
speaker-1: When did we start seeing it decline like that? How long ago was it, do you feel that
speaker-2: in the it was in the early nineteen hundreds when Pulitzer and Hurst were fighting for eyeballs in the era of what was called yellow journalism. but the difference is in those days that kind of generation of stories to agitate the public, in those days it was in favor of war. It was seen as a negative thing. It was highly criticized. You and I are roughly the same age. When we were in eighth grade, we learned about yellow journalism as an awful moment of history in journalism. So
speaker-1: Yes.
speaker-2: it started in the in the you know, in way back when, but our culture thought it an awful thing. Now the culture just embraces it. When did that start? Probably somewhere around the age of the internet, late nineties, somewhere in there.
speaker-1: What else do you think we need to be looking at in the change of direction of the country? Do you think we just get so caught in the mud with the impeachment inquiries, the constant investigations that we don't get anything accomplished? And also do you feel that if they do take both the House and Senate, that what happens to Iran war? Does Trump say I have sixty days to wrap this up? What do you think happens?
speaker-2: Gosh, such big questions and good ones, Chuck. Who said you were allowed to ask me hard questions?
speaker-1: Well I just don't want to Well the reality is I just don't want to talk that much. So you get asked you ask your guest questions. That's why they just say why do you
speaker-2: I know the trick. I know the game, buddy. I know the game. Let's do the second one.
speaker-1: Okay.
speaker-2: The one good thing about Donald Trump not the one good thing. One of the good things about Donald Trump is his stubbornness and his view of the presidency. He has a very Theodore Roosevelt type view of the presidency. It's known as the stewardship view of the presidency. And he's not going to be inclined to be that deferential to the House and Senate when it comes to anything having to do with war powers or national security. He's just not. And what's interesting to me is how poorly this administration has defended the efforts against Iran. I think it's an easy slam dunk. I think you think that too.
speaker-1: Yes.
speaker-2: and it has been jaw dropping. to see how pathetic the defense of that was and has been. Some people think maybe it's because there's a concern of of of a part of our base. that part of our base is rapidly leaving the Republican Party. I'm not worried about that part of our base. And I think most of them that are still inclined to be Republicans can be won over with a serious defense, the kind that you and I would typically Give. But I don't think Trump is going to be super deferential to Congress on that issue. As far as the impeachment, I I don't know. I sometimes wonder if it's a boy who cried wolf situation. What's your sense, Chuck? Don't you think people's eyeballs are gonna roll with all that impeachment business? Yeah.
speaker-1: Well, I think it puts a Republican back in the White House in twenty eight. I
speaker-2: It might.
speaker-1: I just they they they only make the guy stronger when they do that. Kamala Harris this morning or yesterday, it's reported she said we should not follow impeachment. And I think Kamala recognizes what it does. And you know, now she said doing investigations and and we know there are gonna be in some investigations. And there are some things in this administration that do not pass the stink test, right? So they're gonna be investigations, but I think they're gonna irritate people when they say, What are you doing to help my household budget? And I don't
speaker-2: A little secret no one's talking about because for Democrats that are campaigning on affordability, there is literally zero, literally zero Democrats in the House and Senate can do about the economy. Nothing. You ask what is their plan to improve the economy, aside from spending more, which is obviously a jack for inflation. Correct. There is literally nothing they can do. Which, by the way, is a fairly good template for where the Democratic Party is right now, which goes to your point. putting a Republican back in the presidency in twenty twenty eight, twenty twenty nine. When you look at the Democratic Party right now, what is it they stand for? Well I think they still stand for this woke business like Hadley Artis was talking about. And other than that, look, I think people are going to get quite the wake up call if the House and Senate turns Democrat to the toxicity that you and I have been warning about with the Democratic Socialists of America because they're going to see this election should these members get elected and it looks like they have a chance to. They are going to they are going to take this as a referendum that they were right. They're going to be all accelerator and no break. And the American people are going to see what Marxist Islamism means in a way that you and I have been desperately trying and begging them to see before it's too late. So I think it will be a good year in twenty twenty eight if the Democrats have a good year in twenty twenty six.
speaker-1: You I I would like to call you a an amateur historian. Can you name me one thing in thirty years where a Democrat policy lowered prices for households?
speaker-2: Not without Republican not without a Republican assist. Yeah. so without Newt Gingrich, there would have been no balanced budget for Bill Clinton. And I think outside of that, I cannot name you one Democratic policy that has to answer your question longer than it probably needed to take for me to do.
speaker-1: It it sure wasn't Obamacare that was promised to lower these rates for everybody and make it more accessible.
speaker-2: Have you met any single person you and I meet a lot of people. Yeah. Have you and I have you met any single person who can say about Obamacare that their medical care since then has gotten better, it has gotten cheaper, it has given them more opportunities and more options and more choices, and that they're more satisfied with their primary care options and their specific care needs. Do you know one? I don't know one. No.
speaker-1: Matter of fact, liberal women I know complain about it. Right. They just say this this is a d total disaster. And I said, Well, you voted for it, so you get what you you get what you paid for.
speaker-2: I people would pull their hair out if they had the option to go back to two thousand and medical and two.
speaker-1: I I agree. quick question here. We have couple of minutes left. let's talk about culture. You and I talk about culture a lot. I think one thing Trump's done, and we're talking about the transgender you know, motivation by the Democrats and all this all these type of woke things. I think do you think Trump I think people don't have a problem now saying, I'm just not accepting this anymore and I don't care if you call me a bigot or not. Do you think that's changed? That people have come to that realization, at least a chunk of people?
speaker-2: Yeah, I do. and I think it took a while
speaker-1: Yeah.
speaker-2: to reach the beginning of that tipping point. You know, there's always people don't like to be told what they have to say and what they have to think. People don't like to have crammed down their throats and crammed through their heads verbiage and sloganeering that they don't feel quite comfortable with. And I think the Democrats have so overplayed that with DEI and transgenderism that there has been a resistance. a friend of mine, Eli Lake, you probably know him a journalist out in Washington. He's made the point that those who resist that sort of thing, those who have resisted the BLM mantras, are kind of like the kids who were wearing punk rock shirts in the early nineteen eighties, saying
speaker-1: Yes.
speaker-2: enough is enough and you can't make me think that way anymore. I think there is an element of that, Chuck.
speaker-1: I do too, and I think you're gonna see it in entertainment too. I don't think people are just going to play along with this anymore. I I it's really just think, I'm done. If you want to go and follow that path in your life and you're over eighteen, Godspeed. But you're not gonna force it down my throat. You're not gonna force me to say that we all need to go and cater to your needs. I just don't think it's I think it's gone. Much as they want to push it. And think if they push it, plus impeachment, we're gonna have another Republican president twenty eight.
speaker-2: No one likes a Karen and no one likes the government to be Karen.
speaker-1: No, they do not. Folks, you can catch Seth. He is the best talk show radio host out here in the West. You can catch him every week, Monday through Friday from four to six PM Arizona time, which right now we're Pacific. Next week we'll be mountain, but we call it Arizona time. On behalf of Breaking Battlegrounds, Jeremy and Brendan and myself have a great weekend and we'll catch you soon. Sam and I are always talking about being prepared, whether it's hurricanes in Florida, earthquakes in California, flooding in Arizona, or supply chains disruption.
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speaker-1: Hello Breaking Battlegrounds listeners. Did you know that private student loan debt in the United States totals about $300 billion? That's with a B. About $45 billion of that is labeled as distressed, which means people are behind on payments. Why ReFi, who is a proud sponsor of our show, refinances this distress or defaulted private student loans that others won't touch. They don't even care what your credit score is. They provide you with a custom loan payment based on your ability to pay. YREFI is not a debt settlement company. They work with each borrower individually to tailor a loan that meets your specific financial situation and helps you pay this loan off. So, folks, if you would like to learn more how to put your mind at ease and your budget back on track, call YReFi at 877-400-9989 and tell them Sam and Chuck sent you. You can go and look into them at Y ReFi. Y-R-E-E-N-E-E-N- FY.com to get more information. They will help you reduce your monthly payment and guarantee interest rates under six percent, ensuring financial relief to you as you pay off your private student loan. Jump on that website or call them today. Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds. We are fortunate to have with us Joe Polak. He's the opinion editor for the California Post and what we're talking to him about today is something that's very interesting. He is writing a book and it will be available on November twelfth. Scott Adams, A Life of Purpose and Principle. Joe, welcome to the show.
speaker-3: Good to see you.
speaker-1: All right, tell us about the book and why you wrote it. Well
speaker-4: Scott Adams was
speaker-2: Was the famous cartoonist behind Dilbert, who many of your listeners will be familiar with, and he had a second career as a political prognosticator. He predicted in 2015 that Donald Trump would not just win the Republican nomination but also would go on to win the presidency at a time when the gurus at places like five thirty-eight, Nate Silver, were predicting Trump had a two percent chance of winning. And the
speaker-4: Scott developed a entire
speaker-2: theory based on Trump's campaign and he became very, very popular, particularly on the right side of the spectrum, in analyzing news events and he also wrote some incredible help books and really touched the lives of millions of people. He of cancer less than a year ago, but before he passed away he asked me to write his biography. We became good friends over the years. And so I I have now done that.
speaker-1: What did you learn about about Scott that people would not know beforehand? they knew him as a cartoonist and they knew he came out with this political pronosticator, but what did you learn writing the book? What surprised you? Well
speaker-4: Okay, so let me answer that in terms. One answer is what would people not about Skype So
speaker-1: Good question.
speaker-4: there are things people would
speaker-2: We'll find out in this book that they did not know about Scott. For example, had some pretty incredible relationships early in his life, and he also had some experiences that helped him foresee what his life would be about. In fact, he predicted his own success when he was pretty broke and living on his own in San Francisco. He had a premonition of what his success would be like and he wrote it down at the time. It's in To me, he never really talked about that, but
speaker-4: We were able to
speaker-2: get his journal, and in his journal he predicted a lot of his future success. So I think something people won't know just
speaker-4: That's just how he had
speaker-2: an intuition not just for politics but for life in general. And then the other many things I found out about him that I didn't know before.
speaker-4: other thing I think among the for were things like the interesting
speaker-2: background that he had growing up in a small town in upstate New York called Wyndham, which is a very pretty little place. It's near a ski resort there. And he
speaker-4: Worked.
speaker-2: his summers in high school at the ski resort, he did almost every kind of job. He worked on his family's farm before going to college. And Windham
speaker-4: That town really
speaker-2: really shaped a lot of Scott's subsequent experiences.
speaker-4: He went on to become the most perceptive critic of
speaker-2: corporate America in Dilbert. He all of that experience in San Francisco, working for a bank and then working for a telecommunications company. But life
speaker-4: A lot of the
speaker-2: lessons that he would later apply both in his self help books and in politics, he picked up while growing up in Wyndham, New York. And there's something very American about that. A lot of principles espoused were deeply held American principles and deeply rooted in the soil of upstate New York.
speaker-1: I w was listening to an interview you did, I believe, with Doctor Drew this week and you talked about Scott Adams believed in talent stack. Could you tell us a little bit about that? And I I thought I was a fascinated by it because I think it's true.
speaker-4: Well so the idea
speaker-2: of a talent stack is skills that you can build throughout your life that you can continue to add to. And it's not just a collection of skills.
speaker-4: Scott's point where the skills you have they're
speaker-2: more than the sum of their parts. They add to each other. They complement each other. They create something even bigger. And so people to pick up any skill. It doesn't matter what. Just learn something because you never know how what you learn is going to be useful to you in some other way. He learned how
speaker-4: So for example in winter
speaker-2: to farm how to There's a this process of stomping on hay inside a silo to push the hay down. he
speaker-4: all kinds of skills and when he was a banker he learned alone. So what happened was Trump was civil
speaker-2: about how to make loans when sued by the state of New York for
speaker-4: fraud.
speaker-2: for allegedly inflating his assets. His
speaker-4: Scott used him
speaker-2: experience as a banker, not a cartoonist, not a author, not a podcaster. He experienced as a young banker and explained to people Trump had done was not illegal, had done standard
speaker-4: That what Trump does was what Trump in fact what Trump had done was stand
speaker-2: practice, and that the banks themselves do their own due diligence and nobody lost money.
speaker-4: So he was able to say right away
speaker-2: Correct. And it shook out in the end that this was completely normal that Trump was using his net worth, one for the tax man and one for the bank. But but
speaker-4: Many of us do that because you want you want to show the bank you want to show the tax collector that you don't. So th there's nothing
speaker-2: dishonest about that that's just standard accounting basically in the United States today. And Trump did not lie about anything and Scott explained it all. So a talent stack. I he was the cartoon platform, a political
speaker-4: That's an example of a tunist, so we had a
speaker-2: pundit so we understood politics, but it was still
speaker-4: It was because of that early skip
speaker-2: in banking that he was actually able to explain something that nobody else did. And he commented at the time inviting
speaker-4: Why aren't they environmental?
speaker-2: bankers on these CNN shows and and cable news shows, why aren't they inviting bankers on to explain? They're just going to political pundits, the same people they always do.
speaker-4: You need to have some other
speaker-2: ingredient to add to the situation.
speaker-1: Well, they didn't want the answers, why? let me just ask you this question and we'll let you go h tell us how to find the book. Was he optimistic about America at the end? Was he optimistic about our future?
speaker-4: Scott,
speaker-2: One thing many people may not know if you hadn't listened to him very much, phrase
speaker-4: Scott came up with the
speaker-2: the golden age that Trump uses all the time. wow.
speaker-1: Yeah.
speaker-4: Yeah.
speaker-2: And I was able to document in the book that Trump took that phrase from Scott. Very
speaker-4: Scott was very
speaker-2: influential in the Trump White House. A lot of senior aides to Donald Trump were huge fans of his. They listened to his daily podcast. They couldn't wait to talk to me about Scott and how he had changed their lives. And the golden
speaker-4: Trump took the
speaker-2: age directly from Scott Adams.
speaker-4: So Scott was very
speaker-2: Optimistic even when things were rough, even during the pandemic and after the twenty twenty election, believed that the country
speaker-4: Scott always believed this kind of
speaker-2: had a very bright future. And he said he called the the
speaker-4: He he had a lot of Adam's law
speaker-2: slow moving disasters, which is that we can
speaker-4: As long as we
speaker-2: see the threat coming far enough in advance we can figure out what to do about it. Really
speaker-4: So he was
speaker-2: optimistic about our country.
speaker-1: Joel, tell us how people can find the book where they can buy it at.
speaker-4: You can buy it on Amazon
speaker-2: And the easy way to find it is ScotAdamsbook dot com. Scotadamsbook dot com.
speaker-1: Fantastic. And and Joel, how do people follow your work?
speaker-2: I'm available at the California on the opinion editor.
speaker-4: post and there so go to California Post dot com or find X at Joel Pollock.
speaker-1: And folks, on November twelfth, the first five people, and we'll put this out again on November twelfth, the first five people that say, Charlie, send me Scott's book. We'll send you it for free for five five books, okay? So send Charlie send me the book. Scott, I mean Joel, thanks a million for coming on today. Appreciate it and looking forward to this book. Thank you.
speaker-3: Q.
speaker-1: Have a great weekend. This is Breaking Battlegrounds. We'll be right back with Gary Geege and talk some finances. Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds. Our final guest today is a fan favorite, Gary Gigee. He is the president and CEO of Gige Capital, and you can find him at Gigee Capital. That's G-Y G I C A P I T A L dot com. Gary, welcome back.
speaker-4: Thank you. Good to good to be here, Chuck.
speaker-1: All right, Federal Debt had a hundred percent of her GDP. What's the last time that happened, World War Two? Am I right on that?
speaker-4: You are correct. That is right. So this is this is a big deal, is that we have a lot of debt. the economy's growing, which we like. That that's a that's that's good and we want that to continue, but check, we need spending to be reduced. And so it feels like I've been talking about this you for years and years, is that we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, and it doesn't seem to change depending on who's in
speaker-1: Right.
speaker-4: and And it really needs to change. Otherwise we're gonna have a problem sometime in the future, a serious problem.
speaker-1: So, Gary, expl let's do Dummies Guide to Debt book. You're writing it now, okay. Why is this tell our audience why is this a big deal? I think the numbers are so big, they think they're playing Monopoly with their kids. Right? It's just it's fake money. Why is this a big deal and how will this affect their household budgets?
speaker-4: Yeah, so great question. The reason it's a big deal is because the more debt that we have means that the more we have to cut out of our budget, the federal budget, in order to pay the interest on the debt. And so right now, other than the the Department of Fence, the interest on the debt is the biggest expenditure. So the more that we're spending on debt and the interest on the debt means less that we're spending to other projects And it it affects people's pocketbooks in the sense that interest rates tend to stay higher when countries are not addressing their their debt because you're gonna earn more in your in your C Ds. But higher interest rates are harder for countries to support the debt. And and so I think that right now interest rates are elevated. Hopefully they'll come down as soon as the war ends. I think that'll that'll that'll be the case. So it hurts. Second in terms of what they're wanting to businesses, that I mean to borrow in order to expand their businesses, it makes smaller companies in particular, small caps, it makes it more difficult for them to borrow and expand their businesses.
speaker-1: Which means we can't help grow our way out of the problem. If it's too expensive to borrow money, if it's too expensive to expand your facilities, it certainly does not help with our growth and creating new jobs and new income and new tax revenue because of that growth.
speaker-4: You're right. So I've been saying this for a while is that we can't grow our way out of this alone. D having a strong economy definitely helps, but at the same time we have to be cutting spending in order to make this work. So I think that Secretary Besson is right when he talks about growing our way out of this problem. But I'd really like to see more spending cuts, more doge type stuff in order to really cut back on the spending that we're making. And if we do that. And we're and we have a strong economy, which we can do, then I think the needle starts to head in the r in the right direction.
speaker-1: I agree. All right. one last question here.
speaker-4: Yes.
speaker-1: how much we have this great growth. Do you see that growth continuing because of the AI infrastructure and things of that nature? What what do you foresee here the next year?
speaker-4: I do. I do I do anticipate that the economy is going to continue to grow. The job the job market's decent, so that's good. the problems are inflation which is caused by the war in Iran, oil prices and such. I think that is a temper temporary phenomenon. Hate to say it that way, but I really do think it's it it's that way. And when the war ends, oil prices are gonna come down, gas is gonna come down, inflation's gonna come down. But the corporate America picture right now looks really good. And so corporate corporate America is doing fine. They're growing their businesses, they're profiting. they just and and the reduced amount of regulation is telling them what we really need is more stability in terms of where interest rates are headed. And when that happens, I think you see a lot of companies, particularly small cap small companies, prosper and do well. And it and that is going to help everybody.
speaker-1: Fantastic. Gary, where where can people find you? And let know.
speaker-4: Yeah, appreciate that, Chuck. So they can always call us at the 801-787-0342 number. That's 801-787-0342. Websites gigicapital.com. So G-Y-G-I-C-A-P-I-T-A-L dot com.
speaker-1: Great. folks, Gary Gigee, if you need financial help, give him a call. And Gary, we'll talk to you in a couple of weeks after these elections, then we can know a little bit more what the next two years are going to look like. Have
speaker-4: Looking forward to it, Chad.
speaker-1: a great weekend, buddy. Folks, this is Breaking Battlegrounds. Thanks for joining us this weekend at Breaking Battlegrounds, folks. You can find us at BreakingBattlegrounds.vote or wherever you get your podcasts on behalf of Jeremy, Brendan, and I. Have a great weekend.