00:00:02
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
00:00:07
Speaker 2: Hey, earlier this morning. This is something we've been talking about a lot here at Bloomberg. What's been going on in the NATO summit comments by President Trump. President Trump and President Vladimir Zolenski of Ukraine had a short and what was described as spontaneous meeting at the NATO summit in Turkey, and we are assuming they talked about this more than four year old war between the two, but we don't know for sure. The tune then met a joint gathering with reporters. The President said he will allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptor sending another signal of his shifting approach toward Russia's war.
00:00:42
Speaker 3: Just a little birdie told me this about the fact that we'll give them the right to make patriots, will show them how to do it. It's very complex, actually, but it's you'll figure out the complexity quickly. So one of the things we're going to be talking about is you'll we're going to give a license to you to make patriots.
00:01:02
Speaker 4: That's pretty cool, right this way.
00:01:05
Speaker 3: You can't complain that we're not giving them enough. Make him yourself, all right?
00:01:09
Speaker 2: That of course, as President Trump earlier from the NATO summit in Turkey. Hey, great to have back with us. We did want to talk to Angela Stent about where we are in this war between Ukraine and Russia. She's a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With the Rest. Former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She served in the Office of Policy Planning at the US Department of State, and she joins us from Nantucket on this Wednesday. Angela, it is good to have you here with Bailey and me. I'm kind of shocked. We are all shocked that we're still talking about this war, despite all the destruction, the deaths, the global impact. Why are these two countries back at war? Are still at war.
00:01:51
Speaker 4: Because Vladimir Putin still believes he can win the war. Even though the tide, if it hasn't resolutely turned, it certainly turning in Ukraine's favor with all of the drones that they're using their strikes into Russia. But Putin still believes he can wear the Ukrainians down, and we've seen that with these massive barrage of ballistic missile attacks on Kievan other cities, so escalating from the Russian point of view, that's why the war's going on. I mean, President Zelenski would be willing to agree to a cease fire and then obviously more negotiations on how this comes to an end. But it's Putin that's keeping it going well.
00:02:29
Speaker 1: Angela. On that note, is it all optics and ego that Putin can't walk back or live with the view that forever we would remember they weren't successful in this war.
00:02:40
Speaker 4: So he's now stated this. He thinks that not only is his regime survival dependent on winning this war, but his own personal survival. This is how he's defined it. As far as we understand, it's quite possible that the people around him this is an or very authoritarian country, are giving him the news that he wants to hear. He may not fully understand what's happening on the battlefield in Ukraine, but he is just digging his heels in and he's presenting it to his population that this is just like World War Two, and just like we beat the Nazis, we're going to beat the Nazi Ukrainians.
00:03:15
Speaker 2: How stressed are the people though in Russia and economically because of this warrant? Does that really matter to President Putin?
00:03:22
Speaker 4: Well, so, they are feeling the stress much more. There are gasoline shortages in Russia, which is the third largest producer of oil in the world. There are food shortages, for instance, in Crimea, where the Ukrainians have been hitting very hard. People are trying to leave the island now because they just can't survive on what they have. People are feeling it, but it's very hard to convey this or for this to have an actual impact on what the Kremlin does, because whenever you try and criticize it, at least publicly, or you protest publicly, you can be arrested, you can be jailed. There is somewhat more kind of nuanced criticism that one hears about, well, maybe it's really time to end the war, also from the business community, never criticizing, of course the president himself. But it's very hard to make an impression on the Crumblin itself, just because there's more grumbling among the population.
00:04:21
Speaker 1: And Trump saying that Zelenski has done an amazing job, which is quite a turn from where the two's relationship had been what does that mean for Russia if Trump seemingly is fully in Ukraine's corner, and what are the other countries around the world thinking about and how has that evolved?
00:04:36
Speaker 4: So I think the Russians understand that Trump isn't fully in Ukraine's corner. I mean, he had a long telephone conversation with Putin just before the NATO summit, and he came away from that saying, yes, well, Putin really wants peace. But what's really changes that Trump understands now, you know, having told Zelenski in that awful Oval Office meeting in February of twenty twenty five, you have no card. He sees that Ukraine looks like a winner, that it has cards, that the Ukrainians are really fighting back, and I think that's really impressed him, and that's why he's been willing to say that Ukraine can get the licenses for manufacturing Patriot air batteries air defenses, although we have to be very cautious this is going to take quite a long time. They have to sign the agreements with the US companies and things like that. But again, that is a major reversal. So I think he appreciates winners, and he appreciates that, whatever he really thinks of Ukraine and President Zelenski, that the Ukrainians have done a pretty impressive job of innovating and fighting back.
00:05:40
Speaker 1: Well, you make the great point that this isn't something you just flip a switch and then Patriot missiles are rolling off of a machine line and being put to use. How does that lag by itself impact what kind of comes next in the timing from the Ukraine perspective.
00:05:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I think in the immediate, really short term future, Ukraine is still in a very difficult position because Russia is increasingly using these ballistic missiles and Ukraine just doesn't have the air defenses to counter these ballistic missiles. And we saw that in the most recent strikes on Kiv when more people were killed. So Ukraine desperately really needs these Patriot batteries. The US doesn't have many of them because it's been using them in the war against Iran. The Europeans don't have that many, and they really purchase them from the US. So it's not going to help Ukraine in the short run, but in the longer run, if the licensees were granted and if they can really produce these Patriot batteries rather quickly. It could help them going forward, let's say next year.
00:06:45
Speaker 2: Angela, I always do think about you know, certainly Russia, but I also think of it in this war, in particular against Ukraine. But I also think of it in the context of the access of Russia or on China. You can throw in North Korea there as well. Is that important to kind of keep in mind as we watch this war between Russia and Ukraine specifically, Yes.
00:07:06
Speaker 4: I think it's very important. I mean, we have to remember that without China at Putin, probably wouldn't still be in this war. Because the Chinese have been buying either Russian oil, They've been supplying the Russians with all kinds of technology and components. They haven't actually sold them weapons as far as we know, at least in the public, but they certainly provide them with the components for the weaponry, and they don't want to see Russia lose this war. North Koreans, of course have supplied them with ammunition. They have supplied them with soldiers who were fighting and who are still fighting with the Russian forces. And the Iranians were very important in the beginning in supplying Russia with the Shah drones. By now, the Russians have perfected those drones, and in fact they've supplied around with the more modern drones in its current war with the United States. But this group of countries, these three curreties are very important to Russia, China being the most important in terms of its ability to continue waging this war.
00:08:04
Speaker 2: How important is President Trump and all of this, like, it's hard to gauge, you know, friendly to President's landscape seemed today, but also talks about how much he talks to President Putin. I'm never quite sure, you know, keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer. I don't know how to read it anymore. But how important is President Trump in perhaps putting pressure on President Putin?
00:08:26
Speaker 4: I mean, he could put more pressure on President Putin, we could have tougher economic sanctions. There is this bill. There are several bills in the Senate which a majority of the Senator's Republicans and Democrats support, But the Republicans are waiting for the go ahead from President Trump to sign this legislation. So that would be important. And again, if the US were willing to provide Ukraine, maybe via the Europeans with more sophisticated weapons, with the Patriot batteries with a Tomahawk missiles, then that would put more pressure on President Putin. But so far the Trump administration has not been willing to apply that pressure, and that is why I think President Putin still holds out hope that he can still get Trump to pressure Zelenski to give up territory, although that doesn't seem likely at the very moment.
00:09:19
Speaker 1: Is there any risk and we've only got about thirty seconds here, forty five seconds here? What are the risks of contagion when we have the conflict going on in Iran, when we have obviously the conflict going on in Ukraine.
00:09:32
Speaker 4: Well, I think one of the risks is will Russia try as it escalates to broaden the war and in fight attack more indirectly or possibly directly. A NATO member state and some of the frontline states believe that this could happen. So I think that's something to watch for.
00:09:50
Speaker 2: Okay, I thought I was stressed out before, Now I'm even stressed out more. Angela, we appreciate all the time you give us. Thank you so much, Angela's and of course great to have you back. With US senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute's author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West, and with the rest former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. I mean, so we lean on her a lot
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
00:00:07
Speaker 2: Hey, earlier this morning. This is something we've been talking about a lot here at Bloomberg. What's been going on in the NATO summit comments by President Trump. President Trump and President Vladimir Zolenski of Ukraine had a short and what was described as spontaneous meeting at the NATO summit in Turkey, and we are assuming they talked about this more than four year old war between the two, but we don't know for sure. The tune then met a joint gathering with reporters. The President said he will allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptor sending another signal of his shifting approach toward Russia's war.
00:00:42
Speaker 3: Just a little birdie told me this about the fact that we'll give them the right to make patriots, will show them how to do it. It's very complex, actually, but it's you'll figure out the complexity quickly. So one of the things we're going to be talking about is you'll we're going to give a license to you to make patriots.
00:01:02
Speaker 4: That's pretty cool, right this way.
00:01:05
Speaker 3: You can't complain that we're not giving them enough. Make him yourself, all right?
00:01:09
Speaker 2: That of course, as President Trump earlier from the NATO summit in Turkey. Hey, great to have back with us. We did want to talk to Angela Stent about where we are in this war between Ukraine and Russia. She's a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West and With the Rest. Former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. She served in the Office of Policy Planning at the US Department of State, and she joins us from Nantucket on this Wednesday. Angela, it is good to have you here with Bailey and me. I'm kind of shocked. We are all shocked that we're still talking about this war, despite all the destruction, the deaths, the global impact. Why are these two countries back at war? Are still at war.
00:01:51
Speaker 4: Because Vladimir Putin still believes he can win the war. Even though the tide, if it hasn't resolutely turned, it certainly turning in Ukraine's favor with all of the drones that they're using their strikes into Russia. But Putin still believes he can wear the Ukrainians down, and we've seen that with these massive barrage of ballistic missile attacks on Kievan other cities, so escalating from the Russian point of view, that's why the war's going on. I mean, President Zelenski would be willing to agree to a cease fire and then obviously more negotiations on how this comes to an end. But it's Putin that's keeping it going well.
00:02:29
Speaker 1: Angela. On that note, is it all optics and ego that Putin can't walk back or live with the view that forever we would remember they weren't successful in this war.
00:02:40
Speaker 4: So he's now stated this. He thinks that not only is his regime survival dependent on winning this war, but his own personal survival. This is how he's defined it. As far as we understand, it's quite possible that the people around him this is an or very authoritarian country, are giving him the news that he wants to hear. He may not fully understand what's happening on the battlefield in Ukraine, but he is just digging his heels in and he's presenting it to his population that this is just like World War Two, and just like we beat the Nazis, we're going to beat the Nazi Ukrainians.
00:03:15
Speaker 2: How stressed are the people though in Russia and economically because of this warrant? Does that really matter to President Putin?
00:03:22
Speaker 4: Well, so, they are feeling the stress much more. There are gasoline shortages in Russia, which is the third largest producer of oil in the world. There are food shortages, for instance, in Crimea, where the Ukrainians have been hitting very hard. People are trying to leave the island now because they just can't survive on what they have. People are feeling it, but it's very hard to convey this or for this to have an actual impact on what the Kremlin does, because whenever you try and criticize it, at least publicly, or you protest publicly, you can be arrested, you can be jailed. There is somewhat more kind of nuanced criticism that one hears about, well, maybe it's really time to end the war, also from the business community, never criticizing, of course the president himself. But it's very hard to make an impression on the Crumblin itself, just because there's more grumbling among the population.
00:04:21
Speaker 1: And Trump saying that Zelenski has done an amazing job, which is quite a turn from where the two's relationship had been what does that mean for Russia if Trump seemingly is fully in Ukraine's corner, and what are the other countries around the world thinking about and how has that evolved?
00:04:36
Speaker 4: So I think the Russians understand that Trump isn't fully in Ukraine's corner. I mean, he had a long telephone conversation with Putin just before the NATO summit, and he came away from that saying, yes, well, Putin really wants peace. But what's really changes that Trump understands now, you know, having told Zelenski in that awful Oval Office meeting in February of twenty twenty five, you have no card. He sees that Ukraine looks like a winner, that it has cards, that the Ukrainians are really fighting back, and I think that's really impressed him, and that's why he's been willing to say that Ukraine can get the licenses for manufacturing Patriot air batteries air defenses, although we have to be very cautious this is going to take quite a long time. They have to sign the agreements with the US companies and things like that. But again, that is a major reversal. So I think he appreciates winners, and he appreciates that, whatever he really thinks of Ukraine and President Zelenski, that the Ukrainians have done a pretty impressive job of innovating and fighting back.
00:05:40
Speaker 1: Well, you make the great point that this isn't something you just flip a switch and then Patriot missiles are rolling off of a machine line and being put to use. How does that lag by itself impact what kind of comes next in the timing from the Ukraine perspective.
00:05:55
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I think in the immediate, really short term future, Ukraine is still in a very difficult position because Russia is increasingly using these ballistic missiles and Ukraine just doesn't have the air defenses to counter these ballistic missiles. And we saw that in the most recent strikes on Kiv when more people were killed. So Ukraine desperately really needs these Patriot batteries. The US doesn't have many of them because it's been using them in the war against Iran. The Europeans don't have that many, and they really purchase them from the US. So it's not going to help Ukraine in the short run, but in the longer run, if the licensees were granted and if they can really produce these Patriot batteries rather quickly. It could help them going forward, let's say next year.
00:06:45
Speaker 2: Angela, I always do think about you know, certainly Russia, but I also think of it in this war, in particular against Ukraine. But I also think of it in the context of the access of Russia or on China. You can throw in North Korea there as well. Is that important to kind of keep in mind as we watch this war between Russia and Ukraine specifically, Yes.
00:07:06
Speaker 4: I think it's very important. I mean, we have to remember that without China at Putin, probably wouldn't still be in this war. Because the Chinese have been buying either Russian oil, They've been supplying the Russians with all kinds of technology and components. They haven't actually sold them weapons as far as we know, at least in the public, but they certainly provide them with the components for the weaponry, and they don't want to see Russia lose this war. North Koreans, of course have supplied them with ammunition. They have supplied them with soldiers who were fighting and who are still fighting with the Russian forces. And the Iranians were very important in the beginning in supplying Russia with the Shah drones. By now, the Russians have perfected those drones, and in fact they've supplied around with the more modern drones in its current war with the United States. But this group of countries, these three curreties are very important to Russia, China being the most important in terms of its ability to continue waging this war.
00:08:04
Speaker 2: How important is President Trump and all of this, like, it's hard to gauge, you know, friendly to President's landscape seemed today, but also talks about how much he talks to President Putin. I'm never quite sure, you know, keep your friends close, keep your enemies closer. I don't know how to read it anymore. But how important is President Trump in perhaps putting pressure on President Putin?
00:08:26
Speaker 4: I mean, he could put more pressure on President Putin, we could have tougher economic sanctions. There is this bill. There are several bills in the Senate which a majority of the Senator's Republicans and Democrats support, But the Republicans are waiting for the go ahead from President Trump to sign this legislation. So that would be important. And again, if the US were willing to provide Ukraine, maybe via the Europeans with more sophisticated weapons, with the Patriot batteries with a Tomahawk missiles, then that would put more pressure on President Putin. But so far the Trump administration has not been willing to apply that pressure, and that is why I think President Putin still holds out hope that he can still get Trump to pressure Zelenski to give up territory, although that doesn't seem likely at the very moment.
00:09:19
Speaker 1: Is there any risk and we've only got about thirty seconds here, forty five seconds here? What are the risks of contagion when we have the conflict going on in Iran, when we have obviously the conflict going on in Ukraine.
00:09:32
Speaker 4: Well, I think one of the risks is will Russia try as it escalates to broaden the war and in fight attack more indirectly or possibly directly. A NATO member state and some of the frontline states believe that this could happen. So I think that's something to watch for.
00:09:50
Speaker 2: Okay, I thought I was stressed out before, Now I'm even stressed out more. Angela, we appreciate all the time you give us. Thank you so much, Angela's and of course great to have you back. With US senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute's author of Putin's World, Russia Against the West, and with the rest former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council. I mean, so we lean on her a lot
