30 – #MakeRussiaPay – The Strategic Necessity of Seizing Russian Assets for Ukraine’s Victory

WEBVTT
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.560
Welcome to Berlin Side Out, the podcast that takes an expert look at how Germany sees the
00:00:05.560 --> 00:00:09.600
world and the world sees Germany with me, Benjamin Tallis.
00:00:09.600 --> 00:00:12.000
And me, Aaron Gashburnett.
00:00:12.000 --> 00:00:17.720
Hello, and welcome back to Berlin Side Out.
00:00:17.720 --> 00:00:22.720
The Foreign Affairs Podcast in association with the German Council on Foreign Relations
00:00:22.720 --> 00:00:26.600
that takes an expert look at international politics from Berlin.
00:00:26.600 --> 00:00:30.880
I'm Aaron Gashburnett, a journalist and security analyst, and I'm here with my friend and
00:00:30.880 --> 00:00:35.480
co-host Benjamin Tallis, senior research fellow here at the Council and head of its action
00:00:35.480 --> 00:00:36.760
group, Sight & Venda.
00:00:36.760 --> 00:00:41.360
And we are coming to you from Berlin ahead of the Ukraine Recovery Conference from June
00:00:41.360 --> 00:00:45.720
10th to 12th for part two of our Pillars of Victory special.
00:00:45.720 --> 00:00:51.080
Now Ben, in part one of the special, we discussed what's needed for Ukraine's military victory
00:00:51.080 --> 00:00:56.120
on the battlefield with Ben Hodges, Oleksandr Daniluk, Eva Daldor and Terry Schultz, and
00:00:56.120 --> 00:01:00.520
one of the big themes that came out of that conversation is that we really haven't tried
00:01:00.520 --> 00:01:02.800
to win yet, as Ben Hodges said.
00:01:02.800 --> 00:01:05.400
We haven't really committed to Ukraine's victory.
00:01:05.400 --> 00:01:09.640
So we're having a recovery conference without a commitment to victory.
00:01:09.640 --> 00:01:13.280
Isn't that putting the cart before the horse a bit here?
00:01:13.280 --> 00:01:14.280
It is, Aaron.
00:01:14.280 --> 00:01:19.240
And I think one of the problems here is that recovery is such a nebulous term that it provides
00:01:19.240 --> 00:01:24.880
a political safe space for politicians who don't want to discuss the need for victory.
00:01:24.880 --> 00:01:29.000
They don't want to discuss the hard military realities of what needs to be done to win
00:01:29.000 --> 00:01:30.080
in Ukraine.
00:01:30.080 --> 00:01:34.320
So while recovery will at some point be necessary, we're putting the cart before the horse, as
00:01:34.320 --> 00:01:38.600
you said, if we talk about recovery without really committing to victory.
00:01:38.600 --> 00:01:42.960
And it's notable that a lot of the Ukrainian experts as well as the strongest advocates
00:01:42.960 --> 00:01:46.360
from Ukraine for Ukraine say, how do you help Ukraine recover?
00:01:46.360 --> 00:01:50.360
Well, you give air defense and you give the offensive weapons that will get Russia off
00:01:50.360 --> 00:01:51.840
Ukraine's territory.
00:01:51.840 --> 00:01:56.040
And that's something that has to be clearly put together in a strategic way with any future
00:01:56.040 --> 00:01:57.520
plan that we have.
00:01:57.520 --> 00:02:01.280
And it's clear, as we've said many times on season two of "Bird Inside Out" that as
00:02:01.280 --> 00:02:03.600
long as it takes, simply won't cut it.
00:02:03.600 --> 00:02:07.760
Nor, frankly, will whatever it takes, because it doesn't define what the "it" actually
00:02:07.760 --> 00:02:08.760
is.
00:02:08.760 --> 00:02:12.760
And defining that goal, which will then help us define the means to achieve it, is central.
00:02:12.760 --> 00:02:14.360
And that goal has to be to win.
00:02:14.360 --> 00:02:18.840
So we need to understand, as Ben Hodges and Terry Schultz and others said on our last
00:02:18.840 --> 00:02:22.800
episode, we need to understand how we're going to get Russia out of all of Ukraine's
00:02:22.800 --> 00:02:26.960
territory, how we're going to get Ukraine into NATO, how we're going to create a stable
00:02:26.960 --> 00:02:31.920
security order in Europe that serves our values as well as our interests.
00:02:31.920 --> 00:02:36.160
Now we've been discussing previously what's needed to achieve that military victory on
00:02:36.160 --> 00:02:37.160
the battlefield.
00:02:37.160 --> 00:02:41.120
And Ben Hodges was very clear that road to that victory runs through Crimea.
00:02:41.120 --> 00:02:44.760
But there's more to Ukrainian victory or to a successful strategy than the military
00:02:44.760 --> 00:02:46.120
dimensions alone.
00:02:46.120 --> 00:02:49.360
And this is a war that's being waged on many fronts, isn't it, Aaron?
00:02:49.360 --> 00:02:50.360
That's right, Ben.
00:02:50.360 --> 00:02:54.880
Right now we're moving from the front lines into the back rooms on this part two of our
00:02:54.880 --> 00:02:59.960
special to a fight for Ukraine and our values that's being fought on parliamentary and congressional
00:02:59.960 --> 00:03:01.760
floors in the media.
00:03:01.760 --> 00:03:05.720
And even over discussions in fear halls and security conferences, it must be said, we
00:03:05.720 --> 00:03:10.440
are talking about this war's economic and financial front and how to win it.
00:03:10.440 --> 00:03:11.440
Right.
00:03:11.440 --> 00:03:13.200
That was one of the better things to come out of a minute via Kella.
00:03:13.200 --> 00:03:14.200
Yeah, absolutely.
00:03:14.200 --> 00:03:16.680
There are historical comparisons there, please.
00:03:16.680 --> 00:03:18.640
Yes, that is very true.
00:03:18.640 --> 00:03:22.840
But what started in that beer hall was a discussion that we've been having for months between
00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:28.400
us and with other experts and other interested people who have a stake in seizing Russia's
00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:31.080
assets to help Ukraine's victory.
00:03:31.080 --> 00:03:35.960
At the beginning of this war, the G7 states froze around $300 billion worth of currency
00:03:35.960 --> 00:03:39.480
reserves the Russian central bank holds in Western countries.
00:03:39.480 --> 00:03:44.320
The G7 has said that Russia is not getting this money back unless it compensates Ukraine
00:03:44.320 --> 00:03:46.560
for the damage it has caused.
00:03:46.560 --> 00:03:52.680
But Russia has now inflicted almost $500 billion in damages on Ukraine by now, and that some
00:03:52.680 --> 00:03:54.280
keeps growing every day.
00:03:54.280 --> 00:03:59.360
Meanwhile, these assets remain frozen, sitting on the sidelines and not helping Ukraine to
00:03:59.360 --> 00:04:00.360
win this war.
00:04:00.360 --> 00:04:04.680
Now, they're mostly being held in Euroclear Bank and Belgium and correspondent banks
00:04:04.680 --> 00:04:08.040
in different countries and in different currencies.
00:04:08.040 --> 00:04:13.400
About 8% is held in American dollars, 9% in Canadian dollars, 16% in British pounds, but
00:04:13.400 --> 00:04:18.280
Europe's, and by extension Germany's special responsibility on this question, is very clear
00:04:18.280 --> 00:04:21.360
because 63% is held in Europe's.
00:04:21.360 --> 00:04:27.640
Now, later this week, we have a G7 summit in Italy where some sort of decision is expected
00:04:27.640 --> 00:04:31.120
on how to use those frozen assets to help Ukraine.
00:04:31.120 --> 00:04:37.760
While the US, Canada, and the UK favor just confiscating all $300 billion, European governments
00:04:37.760 --> 00:04:39.920
including Germany's are reluctant.
00:04:39.920 --> 00:04:44.840
And that's why we hosted a very full and well attended parliamentary breakfast just last
00:04:44.840 --> 00:04:49.320
week with members of the Bundestag from all four of Germany's Democratic parties.
00:04:49.320 --> 00:04:54.120
One of our guests today, Julia Siskina, was also on that expert panel, our co-hosts including
00:04:54.120 --> 00:04:59.000
Green MP and Action Group members Sebastian Schaefer, as well as our Seus U. co-hosts,
00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:04.240
Wolfgang Steffinger, were both in German media last week, alongside myself talking about
00:05:04.240 --> 00:05:07.480
the need to confiscate the whole $300 billion.
00:05:07.480 --> 00:05:11.600
You can find those articles in our show notes, but Ben, you were at that breakfast.
00:05:11.600 --> 00:05:16.440
What were your impressions of where we're at right now on seizing these assets and how
00:05:16.440 --> 00:05:19.560
does that play into our overall strategic picture?
00:05:19.560 --> 00:05:23.800
Well, first of all, it's really important to emphasize this cross-party support that
00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:29.960
was shown for seizing the full amount of the assets from the SPD, from the Greens, the
00:05:29.960 --> 00:05:33.240
CDU and CSU, as well as the Liberal-Free Democrats.
00:05:33.240 --> 00:05:36.600
There were several MPs from each of those parties there who really get it.
00:05:36.600 --> 00:05:40.920
They understand very clearly that we've already won the legal and economic arguments.
00:05:40.920 --> 00:05:43.400
Seizing the full amount of assets is legally feasible.
00:05:43.400 --> 00:05:47.640
It's economically viable, but it's not yet actually generated the political will behind
00:05:47.640 --> 00:05:50.440
it in Germany to make it government policy.
00:05:50.440 --> 00:05:54.880
And that's because we're missing the strategic picture.
00:05:54.880 --> 00:05:59.040
We tend to overcomplicate these things sometimes, and some of those convoluted solutions that
00:05:59.040 --> 00:06:04.240
we'll discuss later in this episode seem to be very complicated ways of trying to avoid
00:06:04.240 --> 00:06:05.240
doing the right thing.
00:06:05.240 --> 00:06:09.400
And it's worth remembering what Ronald Reagan said that we heard from Matt Krainig back
00:06:09.400 --> 00:06:13.760
on a previous episode that some of these very complex issues can actually be made very simple
00:06:13.760 --> 00:06:15.440
if you really think them through.
00:06:15.440 --> 00:06:18.360
Ultimately, it's a question of we win, they lose.
00:06:18.360 --> 00:06:22.520
And if victory in Ukraine is in our interest, if deterring Russia is in our interest, then
00:06:22.520 --> 00:06:26.800
we need to seize the assets to demonstrate the resolve that we need in order to not only
00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:29.880
win in Ukraine, but to secure ourselves in future.
00:06:29.880 --> 00:06:30.880
Why is that?
00:06:30.880 --> 00:06:34.440
It's because we're not only in a battle of forces, we're in a battle of resolve.
00:06:34.440 --> 00:06:37.960
We have to demonstrate that necessary resolve that we are committed to actually defending
00:06:37.960 --> 00:06:39.040
our interests.
00:06:39.040 --> 00:06:43.360
When it's so clearly in line with our values in Europe, this war, let's be very clear,
00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:45.920
affects Europe more directly than it affects the US.
00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:49.800
And if we can't get our act together on this, it sends the worst possible signal about our
00:06:49.800 --> 00:06:54.320
viability in defending the kind of lives that we want to live in future, the kind of order
00:06:54.320 --> 00:06:55.760
that would allow that.
00:06:55.760 --> 00:06:59.800
It shows that we have the political will to seize the assets, to fund Ukraine's victory,
00:06:59.800 --> 00:07:01.400
but also to make Russia pay.
00:07:01.400 --> 00:07:04.600
And that's about setting the kind of precedent that we need, as well as setting the kind
00:07:04.600 --> 00:07:09.800
of strategy that we need to win the systemic competition and ensure that Europe has a democratic
00:07:09.800 --> 00:07:11.320
and free future.
00:07:11.320 --> 00:07:15.520
And so today we're privileged to have joining us, a very international panel of four guests,
00:07:15.520 --> 00:07:17.480
all of whom are working to change that.
00:07:17.480 --> 00:07:19.320
First up, we have Halina Janchenko.
00:07:19.320 --> 00:07:24.320
She is a member of parliament in the Ukrainian Vrkhovna Rada and secretary of the National
00:07:24.320 --> 00:07:26.640
Investment Council of Ukraine.
00:07:26.640 --> 00:07:30.560
Next up, welcome to Robin Wagner, the chair of both the German-Ukrainian parliamentary
00:07:30.560 --> 00:07:35.880
friendship group in the Bundestag and the German delegation to the OSCE parliamentary assembly,
00:07:35.880 --> 00:07:40.200
among the many hats he wears as a member of the Bundestag for the German Greens.
00:07:40.200 --> 00:07:44.760
And jumping across the Atlantic, joining us from Washington, Julia Suskina, a senior
00:07:44.760 --> 00:07:49.880
legal fellow with Razum for Ukraine, who has worked with Senator Ratna Omadvar on the Canadian
00:07:49.880 --> 00:07:53.080
legislation for seizing Russian assets.
00:07:53.080 --> 00:07:58.360
And Julia was most recently one of the main legal minds behind the American Repo Act,
00:07:58.360 --> 00:08:03.640
which allows the president to order the seizure of Russian assets denominated in US dollars.
00:08:03.640 --> 00:08:08.280
We'll be speaking with the senator about the Canadian legislation later in the show.
00:08:08.280 --> 00:08:10.440
But first off, welcome to the show, everyone.
00:08:10.440 --> 00:08:12.000
Halina, let's start with you.
00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:16.240
What kind of difference would seizing and transferring these Russian state assets make
00:08:16.240 --> 00:08:17.600
for Ukraine?
00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:21.600
What could Ukraine do with this money and what are or should be the priorities?
00:08:21.600 --> 00:08:24.000
Well, Ukraine has a number of priorities.
00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:30.080
And actually, the damage that Russia has caused to Ukraine is huge.
00:08:30.080 --> 00:08:34.600
It's enormous, and they continue actually damaging our infrastructure.
00:08:34.600 --> 00:08:39.400
I'm talking about all sorts of damages starting with residential buildings, when people are
00:08:39.400 --> 00:08:46.040
losing homes, when people are losing actually a place to live, and ending with some major
00:08:46.040 --> 00:08:52.000
and vital parts of infrastructure like energy and heating infrastructure.
00:08:52.000 --> 00:08:58.600
And actually, I should tell you one thing that I should tell you about the process of not
00:08:58.600 --> 00:09:02.600
just freezing, but actually seizing their assets.
00:09:02.600 --> 00:09:07.720
It's a very important source of resources for recovering of Ukraine, but also for the
00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:11.280
current military and financial assistance.
00:09:11.280 --> 00:09:12.780
That's number one.
00:09:12.780 --> 00:09:19.120
But second part that we should clearly understand that this is a very important political message
00:09:19.120 --> 00:09:25.720
that if Russia continues messing with Ukraine, if Russia continues destroying Ukrainian infrastructure
00:09:25.720 --> 00:09:31.360
and just in March, they destroyed a number of huge electricity stations, then they will
00:09:31.360 --> 00:09:33.040
be forced to pay.
00:09:33.040 --> 00:09:38.760
And maybe, although I really doubt that Russians still have some logic, but nevertheless, maybe
00:09:38.760 --> 00:09:45.040
that will give them a sense of what they are doing and who will pay for it and should they
00:09:45.040 --> 00:09:50.880
continue basically messing with Ukraine and damaging the infrastructure.
00:09:50.880 --> 00:09:55.280
So there are two functions, two very important functions.
00:09:55.280 --> 00:10:01.760
As I said, one practical, one very symbolic, but both of them making a huge difference
00:10:01.760 --> 00:10:08.600
and sending a big signal to Russia, but also to all authoritarian regimes across the world.
00:10:08.600 --> 00:10:12.720
I just came from Washington, D.C. this week.
00:10:12.720 --> 00:10:14.320
I spent a whole week there.
00:10:14.320 --> 00:10:22.280
And actually, I should tell you that, for example, Americans, they feel some tension
00:10:22.280 --> 00:10:29.960
not only about Russia, but actually about the whole so-called axis of evil, about the
00:10:29.960 --> 00:10:35.280
countries that are likely or thinking about messing with their neighbors.
00:10:35.280 --> 00:10:36.800
I'm talking about China and Taiwan.
00:10:36.800 --> 00:10:39.600
I'm talking about what is going on in the Middle East.
00:10:39.600 --> 00:10:41.360
And this is only to start with.
00:10:41.360 --> 00:10:49.720
So actually, it's very important for Western democracy to send a very clear and tough message
00:10:49.720 --> 00:10:52.200
to those authoritarian regimes.
00:10:52.200 --> 00:10:56.840
If you mess with your neighbors, if you mess with other countries, you will pay.
00:10:56.840 --> 00:10:57.840
Right.
00:10:57.840 --> 00:10:58.840
Exactly.
00:10:58.840 --> 00:11:01.840
That's such an important signal to send that there would be justice.
00:11:01.840 --> 00:11:03.040
There would be accountability.
00:11:03.040 --> 00:11:05.520
You don't get away with doing this kind of stuff.
00:11:05.520 --> 00:11:10.120
But Robin, coming to you a second, this point about what the money would be used for.
00:11:10.120 --> 00:11:14.160
In Germany, we tend to hear this debate couched in the language of reconstruction.
00:11:14.160 --> 00:11:17.480
And as Halina mentioned, there will be plenty to do on reconstruction.
00:11:17.480 --> 00:11:19.560
It will be extremely important.
00:11:19.560 --> 00:11:23.720
But that's something of a political safe space for discussion.
00:11:23.720 --> 00:11:27.560
Shouldn't we be talking about this in terms of seizing that money to fund Ukrainian victory?
00:11:27.560 --> 00:11:32.600
I think, first of all, we should start thinking not only about Ukrainian victory, but we should
00:11:32.600 --> 00:11:37.960
start thinking about our common victory as we are together under attack by Russia.
00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:40.640
And I think this is the biggest problem in all the debates we have.
00:11:40.640 --> 00:11:44.120
And we are still thinking in the Western countries that we are helping Ukraine out of
00:11:44.120 --> 00:11:48.120
charity or out of friendliness to an attack democracy.
00:11:48.120 --> 00:11:55.520
But forgetting that we are also under attack right now in Germany, we have those news about
00:11:55.520 --> 00:12:01.560
Russian spies working together with our far-right wing party here in Germany, for example.
00:12:01.560 --> 00:12:06.660
We have Russian murderers taking place in European Union countries.
00:12:06.660 --> 00:12:08.720
We have destabilization, disinformation.
00:12:08.720 --> 00:12:09.720
All this is happening.
00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:15.640
And the Ukrainian people are on the front line of this battle of the Russian dictatorship
00:12:15.640 --> 00:12:17.000
against our democracies.
00:12:17.000 --> 00:12:19.360
They are paying with their lives for this fight.
00:12:19.360 --> 00:12:25.920
So we should be in this fight together with them and we should have this mindset for this
00:12:25.920 --> 00:12:26.920
whole debate.
00:12:26.920 --> 00:12:30.800
And then we could come to the other questions of what we use the money for and also which
00:12:30.800 --> 00:12:33.400
money do we use and what are the obstacles to that.
00:12:33.400 --> 00:12:35.480
But first of all, we have to change this mindset.
00:12:35.480 --> 00:12:36.480
Right.
00:12:36.480 --> 00:12:39.620
As we often say on the show, Aaron, the goal defines the means, doesn't it?
00:12:39.620 --> 00:12:40.620
Absolutely.
00:12:40.620 --> 00:12:44.260
And actually that brings me to one question I have for all of you for the entire panel
00:12:44.260 --> 00:12:51.220
because when we're talking about going from as long as it takes to whatever it takes and
00:12:51.220 --> 00:12:56.340
really changing our mindset to be fully in this fight in support of Ukraine, not just
00:12:56.340 --> 00:13:01.380
out of charity, but out of the fact that it is in our strategic interest, that comes
00:13:01.380 --> 00:13:06.920
down to a question of are we willing to do everything we possibly can do to help Ukraine
00:13:06.920 --> 00:13:07.920
win here.
00:13:07.920 --> 00:13:13.160
So when it comes to the question of seizing assets, the repo act in the US as well as Canadian
00:13:13.160 --> 00:13:19.200
legislation allows those governments to seize Russian state assets denominated in US or
00:13:19.200 --> 00:13:20.760
Canadian money.
00:13:20.760 --> 00:13:25.440
Yet right now we're hearing a lot of chatter about whether the G7 will actually seize the
00:13:25.440 --> 00:13:31.240
entire asset, whether it will go as far as it needs to go, as it could go.
00:13:31.240 --> 00:13:36.900
Instead, we're hearing talk of some sort of creative solution, which would only see the
00:13:36.900 --> 00:13:42.700
interest transferred to Ukraine or allowing the asset or interest to be used as collateral
00:13:42.700 --> 00:13:44.740
for Ukraine to borrow money against.
00:13:44.740 --> 00:13:51.020
So why do you think the G7 are doing this rather than just going with the simplest and
00:13:51.020 --> 00:13:55.700
most obvious solution right from the get-go, which would be the most likely to actually
00:13:55.700 --> 00:14:00.380
contribute to Ukrainian victory, which is to simply seize the entire asset?
00:14:00.380 --> 00:14:03.080
I mean, why is it important that we do that?
00:14:03.080 --> 00:14:10.600
All of these creative solutions, as Erin eloquently called them, arose as a result of the mistaken
00:14:10.600 --> 00:14:15.600
view that sovereign immunity basically means that you can't touch Russia's money.
00:14:15.600 --> 00:14:16.720
That's not true.
00:14:16.720 --> 00:14:20.880
And that misconception has been cleared up already by numerous prominent international
00:14:20.880 --> 00:14:24.080
operatic practitioners, experts, scholars.
00:14:24.080 --> 00:14:31.180
But unfortunately, it's tended to linger and also because it's a very convenient excuse.
00:14:31.180 --> 00:14:36.180
So all of this has led to a bit of a wild goose chase towards these various alternatives,
00:14:36.180 --> 00:14:41.260
where governments are twisting themselves into principles based on misconceptions about
00:14:41.260 --> 00:14:42.260
the law.
00:14:42.260 --> 00:14:49.140
There's been this false red line that mainly Europe has drawn to box themselves in and
00:14:49.140 --> 00:14:51.060
the rest of the G7.
00:14:51.060 --> 00:14:53.060
But that line has always been imaginary.
00:14:53.060 --> 00:14:56.520
Let me be really, really clear about this.
00:14:56.520 --> 00:14:59.440
Sovereign assets are not inviolable.
00:14:59.440 --> 00:15:05.200
That view mistakes the absolute protection of property for the rule of law.
00:15:05.200 --> 00:15:09.360
So in other words, to say that sovereign assets are inviolable is also saying that waging
00:15:09.360 --> 00:15:15.520
a war of aggression, committing horrible war crimes and owing billions of dollars in reparations
00:15:15.520 --> 00:15:17.560
is simply irrelevant.
00:15:17.560 --> 00:15:18.560
But it's not.
00:15:18.560 --> 00:15:19.560
It's not irrelevant.
00:15:19.560 --> 00:15:23.040
Robin, coming to you on that, I'm not sure this is something that's fully grasped.
00:15:23.040 --> 00:15:27.820
Within the German political establishment at the moment, even those in the highest level
00:15:27.820 --> 00:15:32.340
of government seem incredibly nervous about doing something they think still might not
00:15:32.340 --> 00:15:36.020
be quite kosher according to the law, but which a lot of international experts, as
00:15:36.020 --> 00:15:40.340
Julia said, it is in fact in keeping with the law and keeping up the protection of
00:15:40.340 --> 00:15:41.340
law itself.
00:15:41.340 --> 00:15:46.820
First of all, it's totally okay to have a thoughtful decision making process on that.
00:15:46.820 --> 00:15:52.420
And actually, that is what is the difference between our democracies and, for example,
00:15:52.420 --> 00:15:54.480
the dictatorship in Russia.
00:15:54.480 --> 00:15:59.440
Here we have debates on that and here we have to really think about the decisions we make.
00:15:59.440 --> 00:16:01.760
And I think it's totally okay to have these worries.
00:16:01.760 --> 00:16:11.360
And I would also say that while this war is also about rule of law and these issues, it's
00:16:11.360 --> 00:16:17.000
very relevant to clearly check what is in line with international law and what is not.
00:16:17.000 --> 00:16:22.620
I'm also in the position that it is the right thing to use the whole frozen assets, but
00:16:22.620 --> 00:16:27.460
I think it's quite a valid thing to prove whether this is in line with European or with
00:16:27.460 --> 00:16:28.980
international law.
00:16:28.980 --> 00:16:37.980
And it's also, I understand the idea of having thoughts about European financial places and
00:16:37.980 --> 00:16:39.660
the investment place, for example, on that.
00:16:39.660 --> 00:16:44.180
But when all the G7 is acting, I don't see the point in where the money should go, actually.
00:16:44.180 --> 00:16:54.120
So this is okay, but the German Bundestag has voted on a very clear motion on that, which
00:16:54.120 --> 00:16:58.760
says we should use the frozen assets.
00:16:58.760 --> 00:17:03.960
And I would personally also say, and perhaps in little easier words, I do not understand
00:17:03.960 --> 00:17:10.520
the point in a country invading another country, destroying whatever it can destroy, causing
00:17:10.520 --> 00:17:13.160
all this damage, and everyone else has to pay for that.
00:17:13.160 --> 00:17:17.240
I don't see the point in that, and I'm not actually willing to accept that.
00:17:17.240 --> 00:17:20.940
I would not accept that in private life, and I don't accept that between states.
00:17:20.940 --> 00:17:26.340
So it is, it should be a clear cause to make Russia pay for that.
00:17:26.340 --> 00:17:29.540
I said that in the plenary, I said we make Russia pay.
00:17:29.540 --> 00:17:30.940
The Bundestag voted on that.
00:17:30.940 --> 00:17:35.380
And so I think we have, it's okay to have this discussion, but in the end, the cause should
00:17:35.380 --> 00:17:36.380
be clear on that.
00:17:36.380 --> 00:17:37.380
Absolutely right.
00:17:37.380 --> 00:17:42.060
And indeed, a thoughtful debate is, as you rightly say, precisely what distinguishes democracies
00:17:42.060 --> 00:17:45.680
from autocracies, which is the very values we're fighting for.
00:17:45.680 --> 00:17:51.040
But when people in power in those democracies use false reasoning, use false reasons, in
00:17:51.040 --> 00:17:56.440
fact, to act as excuses not to do what is needed, it sets a dangerous precedent.
00:17:56.440 --> 00:18:01.140
There's often fear of setting the precedent, as you mentioned, that's been one of the arguments
00:18:01.140 --> 00:18:04.480
used against what precedent would actually seize in the assets set.
00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:06.640
But Aaron, this is something we've talked about a lot.
00:18:06.640 --> 00:18:10.360
That seems to ignore the precedent that is set by letting Russia get away with this, and
00:18:10.360 --> 00:18:14.980
the damage that could do to international law and order if we let it go unpunished.
00:18:14.980 --> 00:18:15.980
Well, precisely.
00:18:15.980 --> 00:18:20.980
And I think that we would, we've made this point before that inaction also sets a precedent.
00:18:20.980 --> 00:18:25.020
I think that there is this belief in Germany sometimes in particular that if you, it's
00:18:25.020 --> 00:18:28.580
only if you take a certain positive decision that you end up sending a precedent, but an
00:18:28.580 --> 00:18:32.940
actual fact, if you don't take a decision, you'll also set a precedent.
00:18:32.940 --> 00:18:38.820
And Helena, you just said this a few minutes ago in your opening, whether or not we seize
00:18:38.820 --> 00:18:41.560
these assets, we'll set a precedent.
00:18:41.560 --> 00:18:46.280
And do we want to set that precedent of if you behave this way, you will pay?
00:18:46.280 --> 00:18:52.240
I mean, that to me sounds like a pretty clear strategic question.
00:18:52.240 --> 00:18:55.240
An interesting fact that it's not a precedent.
00:18:55.240 --> 00:18:58.320
Actually something that is called reparation.
00:18:58.320 --> 00:19:05.360
So basically the occupant or the country which must with the neighbors should pay the damages,
00:19:05.360 --> 00:19:06.720
it's not a precedent.
00:19:06.720 --> 00:19:11.260
That's what actually happened around the world in the previous century.
00:19:11.260 --> 00:19:16.380
So this is actually the instrument and the tool that is already there.
00:19:16.380 --> 00:19:25.300
It's not a precedent actually to seize Russian money either because actually it was Canada
00:19:25.300 --> 00:19:29.100
who made the first, who passed the first legislation.
00:19:29.100 --> 00:19:35.020
And it was if I'm not mistaken, probably even back in 2022.
00:19:35.020 --> 00:19:41.400
So basically they said that actually they can take the frozen Russian money and start
00:19:41.400 --> 00:19:43.080
using it.
00:19:43.080 --> 00:19:53.320
Also actually just like during the last week, Congress and Senate, then President of US
00:19:53.320 --> 00:19:55.920
have actually signed yet another legislation act.
00:19:55.920 --> 00:20:05.040
In addition to the hugely expected financial and military assistance to Ukraine, there
00:20:05.040 --> 00:20:09.380
was another legislation act passed by US Congress.
00:20:09.380 --> 00:20:16.060
It was a legislation about seizing actually Russian assets.
00:20:16.060 --> 00:20:21.780
And currently according to my information, there are about $5 billion in the United States
00:20:21.780 --> 00:20:27.040
that can be seized and used to actually provide assistance to Ukraine.
00:20:27.040 --> 00:20:32.800
Talking about Germany, Germany has about 4 billion euros of various kind of Russian
00:20:32.800 --> 00:20:33.800
assets.
00:20:33.800 --> 00:20:42.880
This includes not only money of Russian central bank, but actually private assets of let's
00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:48.960
call them what they are Russian oligarchs, those who are helping actually put into to
00:20:48.960 --> 00:20:53.860
invade and to kill civilians, to kill like whole families in Ukraine.
00:20:53.860 --> 00:20:59.280
And they also bear their part of responsibility and they also should pay.
00:20:59.280 --> 00:21:04.860
So German has also something to do and it won't be even a president.
00:21:04.860 --> 00:21:11.180
We understand that in many cases it's very difficult to take leadership.
00:21:11.180 --> 00:21:15.660
Although when we are talking about Germany, we really expected to take leadership in Europe.
00:21:15.660 --> 00:21:21.000
But in this case, Germany should not even be the first one to start.
00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:26.880
Canada, United States already started this way.
00:21:26.880 --> 00:21:31.200
Robin, I'd like to come to you quickly just on something that you were saying earlier.
00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:35.080
You have mentioned of course that what sets us apart as democracies is that we can actually
00:21:35.080 --> 00:21:36.520
have these debates.
00:21:36.520 --> 00:21:40.440
But one thing that always strikes me about the German debate and it's coming up again
00:21:40.440 --> 00:21:46.460
in this particular discussion about whether we see the full sort of kit and caboodle of
00:21:46.460 --> 00:21:50.940
Russian assets that are available or whether we work on some sort of creative solution
00:21:50.940 --> 00:21:54.700
as we've been talking about is the role of international law.
00:21:54.700 --> 00:21:59.100
Often in German discussions, we tie ourselves up into thinking, oh, it's not legal.
00:21:59.100 --> 00:22:01.260
And so we better not do it.
00:22:01.260 --> 00:22:04.260
Whereas of course, there's different scholars that will dispute that.
00:22:04.260 --> 00:22:08.020
We don't really get to the point of really saying, okay, well, why do we have this law?
00:22:08.020 --> 00:22:14.320
You know, what is sort of the moral imperative that this international law is actually designed
00:22:14.320 --> 00:22:16.920
to uphold?
00:22:16.920 --> 00:22:19.720
Are we having this debate the wrong way?
00:22:19.720 --> 00:22:24.200
That is characteristic that I like that we want to act in accordance to international
00:22:24.200 --> 00:22:25.200
law.
00:22:25.200 --> 00:22:27.240
I want to act according to law.
00:22:27.240 --> 00:22:31.640
But acting according to law also means trying to interpret the law and trying to find out
00:22:31.640 --> 00:22:32.720
what the law is about.
00:22:32.720 --> 00:22:35.800
That is one of the instruments we have when dealing with law.
00:22:35.800 --> 00:22:38.940
This is thinking about what is the reason of that.
00:22:38.940 --> 00:22:42.500
And of course, also part of it is thinking about what do we have to change and what can
00:22:42.500 --> 00:22:46.260
we change and how is the process of changing that?
00:22:46.260 --> 00:22:51.300
So I think this is one part of the struggle that we want to upkeep international law in
00:22:51.300 --> 00:22:52.300
all of this.
00:22:52.300 --> 00:22:56.460
But on the other hand, still it is necessary to make those pay who cause the damage.
00:22:56.460 --> 00:22:57.460
Right.
00:22:57.460 --> 00:23:00.380
And Julia, I'd like to come to you on this in a second because you made that very interesting
00:23:00.380 --> 00:23:05.500
distinction before between an absolute protection, a rigid interpretation of law and protecting
00:23:05.500 --> 00:23:06.680
the rule of law itself.
00:23:06.680 --> 00:23:09.480
So I'm going to come to you on that in just one second.
00:23:09.480 --> 00:23:15.640
But Robin, just to follow up on that a little bit, I'm going to play devil's advocate here.
00:23:15.640 --> 00:23:22.040
As you know me a little bit, then you know that's something I'm not averse to doing.
00:23:22.040 --> 00:23:27.280
That desire to have clean hands is very understandable in German context, is very understandable
00:23:27.280 --> 00:23:28.980
given German history.
00:23:28.980 --> 00:23:30.640
But hasn't it become more than that?
00:23:30.640 --> 00:23:35.980
Hasn't it become this restrictive comfort of legalism that is using the rules as a straight
00:23:35.980 --> 00:23:39.260
jacket not to act for those who don't wish to?
00:23:39.260 --> 00:23:41.260
Whereas we actually hear other reasons behind this.
00:23:41.260 --> 00:23:44.180
We hear that Germany has a special relationship with Russia.
00:23:44.180 --> 00:23:45.580
That's why this can't be done.
00:23:45.580 --> 00:23:50.020
We hear seizing these assets would make us quote unquote as bad as the Russians.
00:23:50.020 --> 00:23:54.260
Now that seems to me to be a striking failure in the second example to draw any kind of
00:23:54.260 --> 00:23:56.900
proportionality between the two acts.
00:23:56.900 --> 00:24:00.460
And in the first case, that's really worrying for what Germany's relationships, Germany's
00:24:00.460 --> 00:24:04.880
interests are and it would be really worrying for Germany's allies if that were the case.
00:24:04.880 --> 00:24:09.120
So while I appreciate what you're saying, isn't this being used, the good intentions
00:24:09.120 --> 00:24:13.360
of that from people like yourself, it's being used by people with other motives?
00:24:13.360 --> 00:24:17.400
If it is used in that direction, it would be totally wrong.
00:24:17.400 --> 00:24:23.360
But once again, I think it's a good thing to have the goal to not be as bad as Russian
00:24:23.360 --> 00:24:24.360
politics is.
00:24:24.360 --> 00:24:28.800
I do not want to play in this moral field because this is totally unacceptable.
00:24:28.800 --> 00:24:32.580
And I want to upkeep and I want to preserve the international law.
00:24:32.580 --> 00:24:38.700
But we should not have that as an excuse because we need to have very clear in our minds that
00:24:38.700 --> 00:24:43.740
we are in a fight of this dictatorship against the idea of democracy.
00:24:43.740 --> 00:24:46.780
And we are also under attack and we have to keep that in mind.
00:24:46.780 --> 00:24:51.900
And so we have to find ways on how to deal in accordance to international law, but take
00:24:51.900 --> 00:24:58.180
the necessary measures to defend ourselves, our democracies and on the frontline Ukraine
00:24:58.180 --> 00:24:59.600
against this aggression.
00:24:59.600 --> 00:25:03.240
If there is anyone left in German politics, and I know that there are some left in German
00:25:03.240 --> 00:25:06.120
politics, so say that we have this special relation to Russia.
00:25:06.120 --> 00:25:11.960
We definitely still need in this country to work up the mistakes of the past we made.
00:25:11.960 --> 00:25:18.040
We have to take the necessary lessons of the wrong German politics concerning Russia in
00:25:18.040 --> 00:25:19.240
the past.
00:25:19.240 --> 00:25:23.600
We have to learn the lessons that it's not us who understands what is Russia doing best,
00:25:23.600 --> 00:25:29.140
but our neighbors in Middle and Eastern Europe who knew better in the past and maybe now
00:25:29.140 --> 00:25:31.580
have the more correct assessments as well.
00:25:31.580 --> 00:25:33.220
So this is part of our learning process.
00:25:33.220 --> 00:25:39.220
And I urge everyone in Germany to really try to learn from the mistakes in the past.
00:25:39.220 --> 00:25:42.820
It was wrong to make these mistakes, but it can happen that you make a mistake.
00:25:42.820 --> 00:25:45.420
But if you do not learn from these mistakes, then you are doomed.
00:25:45.420 --> 00:25:46.420
Absolutely right.
00:25:46.420 --> 00:25:49.820
And crucial to that is understanding indeed we are the ones in the fight as well.
00:25:49.820 --> 00:25:51.860
And if you're in a fight, you want to win it.
00:25:51.860 --> 00:25:55.280
And one of the reasons you want to win it, Julia, is to maintain things like the rule
00:25:55.280 --> 00:25:57.000
of law, which you mentioned before.
00:25:57.000 --> 00:26:00.400
Could you talk us through a little bit that distinction that you drew a second ago?
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:01.400
Sure.
00:26:01.400 --> 00:26:05.680
So I will add on to Robin's point that he's absolutely right.
00:26:05.680 --> 00:26:08.800
We have had these legal debates over and over.
00:26:08.800 --> 00:26:13.800
But at this point, two years later, experts have come to the realization that the argument
00:26:13.800 --> 00:26:18.480
that it's illegal under international law doesn't really hold water anymore.
00:26:18.480 --> 00:26:22.940
And that's also largely because there are several countries who have already legislated
00:26:22.940 --> 00:26:28.580
based on the principle of countermeasures, including Canada, the US, Switzerland, and
00:26:28.580 --> 00:26:29.820
Estonia.
00:26:29.820 --> 00:26:32.380
So let me explain that a little bit.
00:26:32.380 --> 00:26:36.180
Countermeasures are a well-established doctrine under international law.
00:26:36.180 --> 00:26:38.940
This is something that already exists.
00:26:38.940 --> 00:26:44.100
And if you think about it, it would be crazy to say, well, there's nothing we can do to
00:26:44.100 --> 00:26:46.420
hold Russia accountable to pay the compensation.
00:26:46.420 --> 00:26:48.560
We all agree that it owes.
00:26:48.560 --> 00:26:50.200
But thankfully, that's not the case.
00:26:50.200 --> 00:26:55.320
A state only benefits from noninterference with its property rights when it is abiding
00:26:55.320 --> 00:26:57.200
by international law.
00:26:57.200 --> 00:26:59.680
In this case, Russia is clearly not.
00:26:59.680 --> 00:27:01.040
It's invaded Ukraine.
00:27:01.040 --> 00:27:02.040
It's still in territory.
00:27:02.040 --> 00:27:03.560
It's still with children.
00:27:03.560 --> 00:27:06.280
And it's committed thousands of war crimes.
00:27:06.280 --> 00:27:10.400
Russia doesn't now get to benefit from the rule of law for its bank account at the same
00:27:10.400 --> 00:27:13.760
time as it violates every single part of it.
00:27:13.760 --> 00:27:19.460
Security was never meant to have more protections than human rights or more protections than
00:27:19.460 --> 00:27:21.700
international peace and security.
00:27:21.700 --> 00:27:23.780
That's not international law.
00:27:23.780 --> 00:27:28.860
So when Russia stops its war and when it pays the full reparations that it owes, again,
00:27:28.860 --> 00:27:34.100
a requirement, then it can get this untouchability of its bank account back.
00:27:34.100 --> 00:27:36.620
That is the whole principle of countermeasures.
00:27:36.620 --> 00:27:40.260
It's important to understand that this is not an exception to international law.
00:27:40.260 --> 00:27:41.820
We are not making an exception.
00:27:41.820 --> 00:27:44.520
This is actually a core part of it.
00:27:44.520 --> 00:27:48.880
So whenever these arguments do come up and opponents still claim that it's against international
00:27:48.880 --> 00:27:54.120
law to transfer assets, they haven't really been able to mount a convincing argument
00:27:54.120 --> 00:27:58.920
as to why that hasn't already been addressed at this point.
00:27:58.920 --> 00:28:05.200
As to why this argument comes up, I do honestly agree that legal concerns are often used as
00:28:05.200 --> 00:28:09.400
a get out of making a difficult decision card.
00:28:09.400 --> 00:28:11.720
It's really an excuse at this point.
00:28:11.720 --> 00:28:15.500
We don't really need more legal debates.
00:28:15.500 --> 00:28:21.900
What we need is more political will and a cold, hard reckoning of what will happen if
00:28:21.900 --> 00:28:26.060
these assets aren't used for Ukraine soon.
00:28:26.060 --> 00:28:30.380
But really the bigger picture, I think, is it all boils down to one very quasi-legal
00:28:30.380 --> 00:28:33.020
point, not really legal.
00:28:33.020 --> 00:28:38.560
And this point is that, well, this exact same thing hasn't been done before, so therefore
00:28:38.560 --> 00:28:41.700
something must be wrong with the idea.
00:28:41.700 --> 00:28:46.360
This way of thinking overlooks the fact that, OK, well, we don't have an exact historical
00:28:46.360 --> 00:28:51.200
blueprint, and we rarely do in history, but we do have precedent.
00:28:51.200 --> 00:28:54.000
That's very analogous, as Helena mentioned.
00:28:54.000 --> 00:29:00.240
And we do have well-established legal doctrines that allow for such an asset transfer.
00:29:00.240 --> 00:29:05.400
It's also important to recognize that international law isn't something that's handed down to
00:29:05.400 --> 00:29:08.360
us from above on stone tablets.
00:29:08.360 --> 00:29:09.560
It's not written in stone.
00:29:09.560 --> 00:29:11.980
It constantly evolves.
00:29:11.980 --> 00:29:20.380
And what countries and states do and how they act and what they permit contributes to that
00:29:20.380 --> 00:29:21.380
evolvement.
00:29:21.380 --> 00:29:24.020
And the bigger question is, how do we want it to evolve?
00:29:24.020 --> 00:29:30.460
And like Erin said, inaction is just as much a precedent-setting evolvement as action is.
00:29:30.460 --> 00:29:36.340
Helena, you were just talking a few minutes ago about leadership, and Julia just mentioned
00:29:36.340 --> 00:29:44.680
just now the role of the United States, Canadian, Estonian, Swiss legislation on setting the
00:29:44.680 --> 00:29:49.760
legal precedent that, yes, this is possible because these countries have actually done
00:29:49.760 --> 00:29:50.760
it.
00:29:50.760 --> 00:29:57.840
What kind of leadership do we need to see here from countries that are a bit further ahead?
00:29:57.840 --> 00:30:00.640
So let's go to Canada and the US for a moment.
00:30:00.640 --> 00:30:03.880
They are way ahead of just about every other country when it comes to actual legislation
00:30:03.880 --> 00:30:07.620
on this to allow for the seizure of state assets.
00:30:07.620 --> 00:30:13.140
But both mentioned on this topic, in Canada's recent budget, there was a note of this.
00:30:13.140 --> 00:30:18.060
The repo act itself seems to signal that neither country wants to really lead on this politically
00:30:18.060 --> 00:30:23.500
and diplomatically, at least for the moment, but rather tie themselves to whatever G7 consensus
00:30:23.500 --> 00:30:25.940
ends up being.
00:30:25.940 --> 00:30:27.220
Where is the leadership on this?
00:30:27.220 --> 00:30:29.900
What kind of example needs to be set?
00:30:29.900 --> 00:30:32.460
Is it better to have an example set?
00:30:32.460 --> 00:30:38.240
And if they were to go ahead, how do you think that would affect this debate and narrative,
00:30:38.240 --> 00:30:40.400
both for Ukraine and here in Germany?
00:30:40.400 --> 00:30:45.080
Well I believe they are already ahead and they already made the most important steps.
00:30:45.080 --> 00:30:50.960
So basically they put this as a part of their legislation and they can actually move to
00:30:50.960 --> 00:30:52.360
the practical steps.
00:30:52.360 --> 00:30:58.680
The next step should actually be creation of the fund to cover these damages.
00:30:58.680 --> 00:31:07.300
And once again, I totally agree with Robin who is my vis-à-vis in Germany as a chair
00:31:07.300 --> 00:31:13.060
of Ukraine, German Inter-Parliamentary French Group, but also a great friend of Ukraine,
00:31:13.060 --> 00:31:15.300
that it's obvious who should pay.
00:31:15.300 --> 00:31:17.060
I mean it's fair.
00:31:17.060 --> 00:31:20.260
It is fair that it's Russians who should pay.
00:31:20.260 --> 00:31:28.020
So basically the next step voted by a global community, by United Nations General Assembly.
00:31:28.020 --> 00:31:32.640
They voted that the next step should be creation of the fund.
00:31:32.640 --> 00:31:38.120
And the fund obviously should be filled with Russian frozen assets.
00:31:38.120 --> 00:31:40.200
So now it's time to move on.
00:31:40.200 --> 00:31:48.240
And for all the countries to actually fulfill this United Nations resolution.
00:31:48.240 --> 00:31:49.640
Germany have voted.
00:31:49.640 --> 00:31:53.880
Yes, Robin, we're going to come to you on that because indeed the G7 is going to be
00:31:53.880 --> 00:32:00.060
crucial in this process and Germany is a member of the G7, has been having trouble leading
00:32:00.060 --> 00:32:01.980
in other ways on Ukraine as we know.
00:32:01.980 --> 00:32:04.940
You've been one of the ones pushing for it to do more on every front, but we haven't
00:32:04.940 --> 00:32:05.940
got there yet.
00:32:05.940 --> 00:32:09.580
So surely this would be one of the ways where Germany could really demonstrate.
00:32:09.580 --> 00:32:10.580
It is in the fight.
00:32:10.580 --> 00:32:11.860
It's in it to win it.
00:32:11.860 --> 00:32:12.860
How do we get there?
00:32:12.860 --> 00:32:13.860
Yes, I think we should do that.
00:32:13.860 --> 00:32:16.020
And the perspective on the G7 is the right one.
00:32:16.020 --> 00:32:22.420
I think this is really important for this issue to have it in the G7 context because
00:32:22.420 --> 00:32:28.160
even with the clear course that I have, I think the thought about what it means for
00:32:28.160 --> 00:32:33.960
the financial center in the States and things like that, this is a valid argument.
00:32:33.960 --> 00:32:40.380
And this argument can be countered if we act together in the G7.
00:32:40.380 --> 00:32:45.680
And when concerning leadership, I think we have to think about what leadership in these
00:32:45.680 --> 00:32:46.880
times means.
00:32:46.880 --> 00:32:49.400
And that does not mean being the lonely wolf who walks out.
00:32:49.420 --> 00:32:54.140
alone and does everything on its own. But it has to be leadership within a group and
00:32:54.140 --> 00:32:58.300
trying to act within this group and working together with the others. But leadership in
00:32:58.300 --> 00:33:03.060
a group does not mean to wait for everyone else to act because then no one acts in this
00:33:03.060 --> 00:33:07.940
group. So someone has to take the initiative in this group. That can be Germany, that can
00:33:07.940 --> 00:33:13.580
also be others in this group. But as a German politician, I would say we should be more active
00:33:13.580 --> 00:33:18.720
on that. The Bundestag voted clearly and had this motion that we should use the frozen
00:33:18.720 --> 00:33:24.860
assets. And so within the G7, we should move a step forward and together solve this issue.
00:33:24.860 --> 00:33:29.660
This is also part of grown up politics. I think we cannot always wait for others to
00:33:29.660 --> 00:33:33.700
deal with the issues. When we want to be grown up in Europe, we cannot always wait for our
00:33:33.700 --> 00:33:37.220
friends on the other side of the Atlantic to take the leadership on whatever question
00:33:37.220 --> 00:33:43.220
it is. I think it's very important that we are strongly together, but we also have to
00:33:43.220 --> 00:33:45.340
take our share of responsibility.
00:33:45.340 --> 00:33:50.280
The unity shouldn't mean lowest common denominator or always waiting for the others or settling
00:33:50.280 --> 00:33:53.720
on the lowest thing we could possibly agree to. It should mean actually going forward
00:33:53.720 --> 00:33:57.320
for the team purpose and actually playing as a team, letting at some leads, sometimes
00:33:57.320 --> 00:34:02.120
others lead other times, play to their strengths. That's absolutely fine. But truth wins out
00:34:02.120 --> 00:34:06.000
over tranquility and team play as well. And this is something that we have to actually
00:34:06.000 --> 00:34:10.200
be able to prioritize. That's going to take political leadership, which is where narratives
00:34:10.200 --> 00:34:15.740
are key, I think, to come into this. But we haven't yet got a narrative from the key
00:34:15.740 --> 00:34:19.820
leaders in Germany, including Vice Chancellor Habeck and Foreign Minister Baerbock, about
00:34:19.820 --> 00:34:24.580
seizing these assets and linking it to victory. What we've heard from both of them is that
00:34:24.580 --> 00:34:29.460
they view this issue critically or that it would just be viewed in terms of the seizing
00:34:29.460 --> 00:34:33.060
of the interest rather than the asset itself. Now, we've heard people on Berlin's Side
00:34:33.060 --> 00:34:39.220
Out challenge that before from both the Greens and from the CDU/CSU. But, Julio, can you tell
00:34:39.220 --> 00:34:42.680
us a bit more about this key role of narratives in this struggle for victory?
00:34:42.680 --> 00:34:48.000
Specifically, Julio, let's ask about the repo act and also about Canadian legislation. Because
00:34:48.000 --> 00:34:53.480
now that the repo act has actually passed and Canadian legislation is closer to passing,
00:34:53.480 --> 00:34:57.360
are we potentially seeing the opportunity for a narrative change in how this whole thing
00:34:57.360 --> 00:34:58.360
is framed?
00:34:58.360 --> 00:35:03.000
Yes, absolutely. And I'm very glad you asked about that. So I will start with the repo act
00:35:03.000 --> 00:35:07.400
since that's probably what I'm most familiar with and it's the most recent development.
00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:12.460
So, yes, the repo act does absolutely change the narrative in several really important
00:35:12.460 --> 00:35:18.980
ways. First, it redraws these false red lines that were set by Europe. It legitimizes the
00:35:18.980 --> 00:35:24.300
use of countermeasures to seize and transfer the assets themselves rather than pursue these
00:35:24.300 --> 00:35:28.940
creative strategies whose whole purpose is to avoid touching the assets. It shows that
00:35:28.940 --> 00:35:34.780
seizing the assets is possible. And it's also the best way legally and practically to deliver
00:35:34.780 --> 00:35:40.000
the greatest amount of benefit to Ukraine and therefore to the entire global world in
00:35:40.000 --> 00:35:45.440
the fastest way. It shows that it's possible to create legal mechanisms if they don't already
00:35:45.440 --> 00:35:51.400
exist. So it erases this excuse of, oh, well, we don't have the law for that. Well, then
00:35:51.400 --> 00:35:58.600
make one. That is the job of a lawmaker. So, yes, the repo act does change the narrative.
00:35:58.600 --> 00:36:05.220
So it is the Canadian legislation and it also exposes all of these excuses about international
00:36:05.220 --> 00:36:12.100
law. It makes them more and more glaringly existent. It explicitly asserts the legality
00:36:12.100 --> 00:36:17.180
of doing this as a countermeasure against Russia's grave breach of international law.
00:36:17.180 --> 00:36:22.000
And what's really important is that it was passed unanimously with the support, in other
00:36:22.000 --> 00:36:26.460
words, of lawmakers from all member countries in Europe and from all of their political
00:36:26.460 --> 00:36:32.520
families. So in other words, the governing parties of all EU countries have voted for
00:36:32.520 --> 00:36:37.160
illegal and political position that some of their governments are trying to resist. That
00:36:37.160 --> 00:36:43.880
is an incredibly important message. So what, in terms of narrative, what this really means
00:36:43.880 --> 00:36:50.200
is that the position of EUG7 countries is unsustainable. It would serve them better at
00:36:50.200 --> 00:36:55.960
this point to realize this and to act accordingly rather than be shamed into it by inevitable
00:36:55.960 --> 00:36:59.820
public pressure once others act like the US and Canada.
00:36:59.820 --> 00:37:04.740
Right. And this is something we've also talked a lot on the show about is that these things
00:37:04.740 --> 00:37:09.380
will happen, largely speaking. They will go ahead in that way. So trying to get ahead
00:37:09.380 --> 00:37:15.300
of that and do this strategically in a proactive manner would be much more in our interest
00:37:15.300 --> 00:37:18.980
and would actually be much more to the interest of the politicians who did it rather than
00:37:18.980 --> 00:37:24.020
claiming it's impossible until it becomes inevitable and then acting in an unplanned
00:37:24.020 --> 00:37:27.960
fashion that makes us look completely hopeless before our electorates as well and doesn't
00:37:27.960 --> 00:37:31.600
exactly signal the resolve that we need and it doesn't signal to our populations that
00:37:31.600 --> 00:37:35.800
we've got this. We're in charge. We're in control. We're ready to win a systemic competition
00:37:35.800 --> 00:37:39.880
against authoritarian regimes. So I think some of the crisis of political legitimacy
00:37:39.880 --> 00:37:45.320
that we're seeing in the West is partly related to this failure to accept actually what are
00:37:45.320 --> 00:37:49.600
strategic inevitabilities and to really claim them and take ownership of them. But that's
00:37:49.600 --> 00:37:52.960
something, Helena, that Ukraine has been incredibly good at doing. Ukrainian leaders
00:37:52.960 --> 00:37:57.020
have been incredibly good at getting ahead of the game on this and continuing to push,
00:37:57.020 --> 00:38:01.140
be it in narrative terms, be it in ways of appealing to the conscience of the West and
00:38:01.140 --> 00:38:05.620
so on, to appealing to the times when Western countries have been at their best actually
00:38:05.620 --> 00:38:10.300
and have lived up to their values and have served their interests. But at the same time,
00:38:10.300 --> 00:38:15.980
we now start to see difficulties in Ukraine continuing to push forward. Can you tell us
00:38:15.980 --> 00:38:21.340
a little bit about how that feels and why the fight for victory in Ukraine must go on
00:38:21.340 --> 00:38:26.080
and what message you would deliver to our listeners around European countries and across
00:38:26.080 --> 00:38:29.480
the Atlantic as to why Ukraine must win?
00:38:29.480 --> 00:38:36.480
One thing that I really want to say, that I want to be heard, that for Ukraine it's
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:43.800
very heartbreaking that we managed to get additional, for example, military assistance
00:38:43.800 --> 00:38:54.540
or additional legal or political tool on a table only after actually new strategy in
00:38:54.540 --> 00:39:00.580
Ukraine or atrocities or stuff like that. We've been begging for military assistance,
00:39:00.580 --> 00:39:08.020
like for serious weapon to protect ourselves since the beginning of full-scale invasion.
00:39:08.020 --> 00:39:13.260
But only after April, after Russians left from the Northern regions and when the whole
00:39:13.260 --> 00:39:19.120
world saw all those, not only that, but tortured people laying on the streets, that's what
00:39:19.120 --> 00:39:27.880
Russians did to civilians. Only after that some activities have started, like talking
00:39:27.880 --> 00:39:34.400
about the recent activities. In March, Russians have started basically ruining and destroying
00:39:34.400 --> 00:39:44.220
the huge energy stations in Ukraine. There was this one energy station. It just says
00:39:44.220 --> 00:39:52.740
that the air alarm in Kiev is out. So we are kind of safe again. But that's the typical,
00:39:52.740 --> 00:39:57.980
that's our routine, that's how we live. So actually there was an air alarm. But nevertheless,
00:39:57.980 --> 00:40:06.800
so Russians have actually ruined the huge electricity plant that supplied energy to
00:40:06.800 --> 00:40:16.720
three regions, including Kiev, but to other major big regions. And only after that some
00:40:16.720 --> 00:40:25.680
activities have started taking place related to air defense. So American Congress finally
00:40:25.680 --> 00:40:33.980
voted the military assistance, the $61 billion. And we also see, we are very thankful, but
00:40:33.980 --> 00:40:38.180
it is kind of like a delayed assistance from Germany as well.
00:40:38.180 --> 00:40:42.820
Well exactly, this is an argument we've actually made quite a lot on the show and here in Berlin,
00:40:42.820 --> 00:40:47.220
why was it that Ukrainians had to wait for Butcher to happen in order to get artillery?
00:40:47.220 --> 00:40:51.300
Why did Mariupol have to be raised to the ground in order for Heimars to be sent? And
00:40:51.300 --> 00:40:55.180
we see it again this time. What has triggered the passing of the Ukraine aid bill, but an
00:40:55.180 --> 00:40:59.800
Iranian attack on Israel? Let's be frank, this is actually what tipped this over the
00:40:59.800 --> 00:41:04.680
edge. So another total strategic fail from the collective West, from the democratic world,
00:41:04.680 --> 00:41:08.800
we're letting our enemies, our adversaries, the enemies of freedom set the agenda. We
00:41:08.800 --> 00:41:13.760
are clearly on the back foot and playing catch up. So we need to start getting ahead of that.
00:41:13.760 --> 00:41:19.320
And it's therefore very unfortunate that in Germany still the conversation revolves around
00:41:19.320 --> 00:41:24.240
questions like what if Kharkiv were to suffer the same fate as Mariupol? Would that move
00:41:24.240 --> 00:41:29.060
Olaf Schultz to send Taurus? And it's totally the wrong way of looking at this, of course.
00:41:29.060 --> 00:41:33.180
I actually personally think it wouldn't because I don't think it fits with Schultz's strategic
00:41:33.180 --> 00:41:37.620
logic. But nonetheless, even thinking about it in those terms is totally, totally wrong,
00:41:37.620 --> 00:41:42.620
I find. Yulia, could you just tell us a little bit about that strategic situation in Washington
00:41:42.620 --> 00:41:46.180
and the passing of the act? Because you've been on the ground there.
00:41:46.180 --> 00:41:52.980
Yes, I completely agree with Halina. That's very glad that it passed. Finally, it took
00:41:52.980 --> 00:41:59.960
eight months of long sustained effort of trying literally everything on the hundreds of congressional
00:41:59.960 --> 00:42:06.320
meetings. An entire Ukrainian Action Summit where 500 Ukrainian American delegates flew
00:42:06.320 --> 00:42:12.560
in from 47 states across the country for a weekend to meet with their congressional representatives
00:42:12.560 --> 00:42:19.640
and to advocate for Ukraine aid. And just so much more, discharge petitions, media campaigns,
00:42:19.640 --> 00:42:25.540
putting up billboards, news ads. This was a monumental effort for something that should
00:42:25.540 --> 00:42:32.340
be very obvious. And in the end, bringing it back to the seized assets, I believe it's
00:42:32.340 --> 00:42:37.140
the same. The seized assets are is going to be the same in the long list of decisions
00:42:37.140 --> 00:42:45.060
around javelins, MiG-29s, T-72s, high-mars, leopards, F-16s, all of those things. Our
00:42:45.060 --> 00:42:50.560
Western decision makers try and avoid doing the obvious. But eventually they're left
00:42:50.560 --> 00:42:56.280
with no choice but to do what they need to do. But it's always too little and it's too
00:42:56.280 --> 00:43:03.120
late. And Ukraine always pays in the blood of its brave soldiers and its innocent civilians.
00:43:03.120 --> 00:43:07.920
At the very core, it really boils down to the fact that our decision makers consistently
00:43:07.920 --> 00:43:12.440
fail to understand the threat from Russia and the risks if Ukraine is allowed to fail.
00:43:12.440 --> 00:43:15.860
I think Europeans still in particular still haven't woken up to the fact that we are far
00:43:15.860 --> 00:43:21.500
more directly exposed and drastically vulnerable to a continued Russian threat. That if we
00:43:21.500 --> 00:43:25.660
don't defeat that in Ukraine, it can be coming for us. And is it then going to be again a
00:43:25.660 --> 00:43:29.900
case of us saying, oh, we really need to rearm ourselves when one of the Baltic states is
00:43:29.900 --> 00:43:34.820
attacked or when a city in Poland suffers the same fate as Mariupol or when the missiles
00:43:34.820 --> 00:43:39.180
start landing on Munich? And this is the thing. If we're still having this too late
00:43:39.180 --> 00:43:42.520
approach, if we're not ahead of the game, that's precisely what we risk. And I think
00:43:42.520 --> 00:43:46.400
that's the stakes we have to be laying out in front of our decision makers. But Aaron,
00:43:46.400 --> 00:43:51.040
there's more to this than just military rearmament. There's an economic front as well as we discussed
00:43:51.040 --> 00:43:52.040
at the beginning, isn't there?
00:43:52.040 --> 00:43:58.240
Absolutely. And that's precisely where this whole question of seizing the assets actually
00:43:58.240 --> 00:44:02.440
comes in. It's this question of who should pay for this? Obviously, Russia should pay
00:44:02.440 --> 00:44:09.060
for this. And it's irresponsible, as we've said many times, to leave Russian money on
00:44:09.060 --> 00:44:12.740
the table when Ukraine continues to pay in blood, obviously, as Julia just said, but
00:44:12.740 --> 00:44:19.780
also that the Western taxpayer continues to be on the hook for supporting Ukraine, which
00:44:19.780 --> 00:44:29.220
is in our interest, let's be clear. But at a time of economic uncertainty, it's quite
00:44:29.220 --> 00:44:33.840
strange that we are leaving this money on the table, which as Julia has mentioned, we
00:44:33.840 --> 00:44:41.920
can legally take and transfer to Ukraine. And the longer we put off this decision, as
00:44:41.920 --> 00:44:46.640
you've said, Ben, the more likely it is that the result will be more expensive, that we'll
00:44:46.640 --> 00:44:51.000
actually have to spend more and more money on defense because the Russian threat will
00:44:51.000 --> 00:44:59.200
become ever, ever closer to home for us. So this seems to be a rather no brainer decision
00:44:59.200 --> 00:45:04.380
question. One thing we do hear in addition to some of the legal counter arguments is
00:45:04.380 --> 00:45:09.260
economic counter arguments, which Robin has addressed a little bit that can be mitigated
00:45:09.260 --> 00:45:15.100
by moving forward as the G7. And that's why he favors this. But there's concerns, of course,
00:45:15.100 --> 00:45:21.420
that if we were to seize the assets, that there would be the potential to destabilize the
00:45:21.420 --> 00:45:28.340
euro or any other Western currency or create the possibility for Russia to retaliate. Now,
00:45:28.340 --> 00:45:33.240
let's be clear here, Western currencies that the G7 has jurisdiction over make up 89% of
00:45:33.240 --> 00:45:37.880
currency reserves in the world. So I'm always very skeptical of this particular argument.
00:45:37.880 --> 00:45:42.640
Let's be frank there. But Julia, Helena, what do you make of these arguments?
00:45:42.640 --> 00:45:47.000
Prominent economists and experts have already shown that these concerns are largely overblown
00:45:47.000 --> 00:45:51.600
and they're kind of a scaremongering tactic for the reasons that Aaron explains is that
00:45:51.600 --> 00:45:57.360
if the G7 moves together, this is 89.2% of the world's reserve currencies. There's literally
00:45:57.360 --> 00:46:03.540
no place else to go. The other reason is that any negative effects that would have happened
00:46:03.540 --> 00:46:09.740
from taking these reserves would have already been triggered when the G7 froze those assets
00:46:09.740 --> 00:46:17.340
in early 2022. That is arguably the bigger move. But there have been no observed consequences.
00:46:17.340 --> 00:46:22.220
And this is this because the G7 by freezing those reserves and stating that they will
00:46:22.220 --> 00:46:27.300
remain frozen until Russia pays a sum that is greater than the amount that they're holding,
00:46:27.300 --> 00:46:32.120
they've already made it clear that aggressors reserves are not safe in the G7 and nor should
00:46:32.120 --> 00:46:38.640
they be. I think the bigger point to I will make is that the bigger risk on this reserve
00:46:38.640 --> 00:46:45.560
currency front is not necessarily the financial component and it's really been framed in this
00:46:45.560 --> 00:46:52.640
economic financial way. But the bigger risk is if the West fails to adequately fund Ukraine
00:46:52.640 --> 00:46:57.860
that results in it losing the war or not being able to sustain itself. That would actually
00:46:57.860 --> 00:47:03.620
be a bigger seismic hit to the security of Europe where inevitably Russia will invade
00:47:03.620 --> 00:47:08.300
next. And this would deplete confidence not in just the Euro, but in the stability of
00:47:08.300 --> 00:47:15.060
Europe itself. So in the end, Euroclear and the banks should not be the decision makers
00:47:15.060 --> 00:47:21.300
here. This isn't a financial decision. It's a national security decision. And it's one
00:47:21.300 --> 00:47:26.720
that really should be made with Western national security interests at the core. And policymakers
00:47:26.720 --> 00:47:33.800
need to start realizing this and they need to stop offsetting their decisions onto bankers
00:47:33.800 --> 00:47:39.360
and actually fulfill their roles as policymakers and international experts.
00:47:39.360 --> 00:47:44.320
Right. I mean, this really echoes that discussion we heard in Germany at the beginning of the
00:47:44.320 --> 00:47:49.200
full scale war as well when it was talked of Germany will have to get off Russian gas.
00:47:49.200 --> 00:47:54.620
No, said some big businesses. This will lead to mass and the orbits lozikite or mass unemployment,
00:47:54.620 --> 00:48:00.300
a terror word in the German lexicon that brings back images of the 1920s, which are then seen
00:48:00.300 --> 00:48:04.820
to have led to Hitler's rise. This was deliberate scaremongering, which did not reflect an accurate
00:48:04.820 --> 00:48:09.060
calculation of the risk or an ability to weigh up the different risks involved, as Julia
00:48:09.060 --> 00:48:13.380
just said. So we shouldn't give into that. Again, Helena, would you like to add anything
00:48:13.380 --> 00:48:14.380
on that?
00:48:14.380 --> 00:48:21.980
In a time when crazy things are happening and it's impossible to stay in the same models
00:48:21.980 --> 00:48:28.540
of around you time changes and we have to change with them. We can't. I mean, we have
00:48:28.540 --> 00:48:34.020
to answer the challenges that occur. And that's why it's important to come up with new solutions
00:48:34.020 --> 00:48:39.540
with creative ways to approach the things and stuff like that. And once again, this is
00:48:39.540 --> 00:48:47.820
just another argument to be added to the basket with arguments about why Russians assets should
00:48:47.820 --> 00:48:55.460
be seized. Yeah, like this was not done before, but okay, we didn't have basically invasions
00:48:55.460 --> 00:49:05.060
in atrocities like that over the previous, I don't know, 80 years. And if we don't want
00:49:05.060 --> 00:49:11.780
things like that happen in the future, there should be new solutions. There should be new
00:49:11.780 --> 00:49:17.260
answers. And they should be like really, I mean, tough and serious.
00:49:17.260 --> 00:49:21.660
I think adapting to the times is essential and not just relying on the old tools that
00:49:21.660 --> 00:49:25.980
were for a very different situation. All of this brings three things to mind. I think
00:49:25.980 --> 00:49:30.420
we should use to concentrate our minds and concentrate the conversation. We've shown
00:49:30.420 --> 00:49:35.020
this inability to calculate and weigh different risks against each other. That needs to change.
00:49:35.020 --> 00:49:39.580
So we have to be able to understand the consequences again, as Aaron said before, of inaction or
00:49:39.580 --> 00:49:45.620
the consequences of different forms of action, rather than just fixating on one kind of risk.
00:49:45.620 --> 00:49:50.220
We haven't realized it's our fight. And thus it's our fight to win, because if you're in
00:49:50.220 --> 00:49:54.100
that fight, you need to win it. And the third part of that is because I think we haven't
00:49:54.100 --> 00:49:58.780
realized our power. We're actually afraid of our power. And this is something that Christianity
00:49:58.780 --> 00:50:03.380
Karen said to us in Munich as well. So we need to embrace our strength. If we realize we're
00:50:03.380 --> 00:50:07.420
in a fight, we embrace our strength and we start properly calculating risks, then we
00:50:07.420 --> 00:50:12.500
have the basis to proceed in a strategic fashion that can actually ensure our security, as
00:50:12.500 --> 00:50:17.300
Julia said. And that starts in Ukraine, but it doesn't end there for Europeans, nor for
00:50:17.300 --> 00:50:20.500
the rest of the democratic world. We have to really get ahead of that. And as Robin
00:50:20.500 --> 00:50:25.660
Wagner said, act as a team to do that and bring our different qualities to bear and
00:50:25.660 --> 00:50:28.340
leverage them by working properly together.
00:50:28.340 --> 00:50:33.220
You've been talking about power just a second ago, Ben, that we are afraid of our own power
00:50:33.220 --> 00:50:42.100
by seizing the entirety of this 300 billion in assets. As the G7, when we have 89% of
00:50:42.100 --> 00:50:47.100
the world's currency reserves, that is certainly a demonstration of economic power, not simply
00:50:47.100 --> 00:50:54.700
military power. And I think too often we think of Ukraine and Russia's war against it, only
00:50:54.700 --> 00:51:00.540
in military terms. We have to remember that this involves everything that we're able to
00:51:00.540 --> 00:51:04.820
do. That's why we're having this particular discussion on the seizure of assets. So when
00:51:04.820 --> 00:51:09.700
it comes to precedent and the power to set a precedent by using this particular power,
00:51:09.700 --> 00:51:14.740
I'd like to come back to one line of one book that's a bit old at the moment, but it's
00:51:14.740 --> 00:51:21.220
Mark Leonard's Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century. One line, I think, of that book that
00:51:21.220 --> 00:51:26.780
is still interesting today is when he says Europe's weapon is the law. Well, if that
00:51:26.780 --> 00:51:31.140
is in fact true, then this is a step that we need to actually take, to actually prove
00:51:31.140 --> 00:51:37.380
it, to use the rule of law, to uphold the rule of law, and to say that there are consequences
00:51:37.380 --> 00:51:42.900
for not upholding the rule of law. And one of those consequences is that we will seize
00:51:42.900 --> 00:51:43.900
your assets.
00:51:43.900 --> 00:51:48.020
In a thesis from that book that was otherwise aged like milk, Aaron, I think you managed
00:51:48.020 --> 00:51:54.000
to find a little bit of cream to hold on to. And of course, legal weapon with its economic
00:51:54.000 --> 00:51:58.420
weapon, and finally, to find some military weapons to go with it, to have the full array
00:51:58.420 --> 00:52:02.540
of power at our disposal in order to stand up for that free world, in order to stand
00:52:02.540 --> 00:52:06.780
up and make sure that we understand that our fight for victory in the systemic competition
00:52:06.780 --> 00:52:10.620
runs through victory in Ukraine, which is our common victory.
00:52:10.620 --> 00:52:14.740
Thank you so much to Helena Janchenko, Robin Wagner, and Julia Suskina for being with
00:52:14.740 --> 00:52:20.660
us today. Joining us now from Ottawa is Canadian Senator Ratna Omidvar, who has been working
00:52:20.660 --> 00:52:25.960
with experts like Julia on the Canadian legislation for Seizing Russian State Assets. Welcome
00:52:25.960 --> 00:52:28.440
to the show, and thank you for joining us.
00:52:28.440 --> 00:52:32.680
So Senator, Canada and the US are way ahead of just about every other country when it
00:52:32.680 --> 00:52:41.640
comes to actual legislation and a framework, a legal framework to seize Russian assets.
00:52:41.640 --> 00:52:47.520
But if we look at Canada's recent budget, it really seems to signal a bit of a walk
00:52:47.520 --> 00:52:52.740
back from some of the tough talk that we've seen on this whole theme of seizing Russian
00:52:52.740 --> 00:52:59.580
assets really since the invasion. Now it seems that the government here wants to tie
00:52:59.580 --> 00:53:05.420
itself to whatever G7 consensus is. So where is Canadian leadership on this question?
00:53:05.420 --> 00:53:12.380
I believe Canada is a world leader on this fight. We were the first to propose seizure
00:53:12.380 --> 00:53:18.120
of assets of oligarchs. We were the first to actually try and walk through the process.
00:53:18.120 --> 00:53:24.000
We're in court. We have to get it completely right so that any seizures that are affected
00:53:24.000 --> 00:53:30.760
under the law can be more nimble and more flexible at this point than they are.
00:53:30.760 --> 00:53:37.700
The budget also clearly states that Canada's current position is that Russian state assets
00:53:37.700 --> 00:53:43.260
can be used and it is within the framework of the law that Canada accepts the findings
00:53:43.260 --> 00:53:48.900
of international lawyers that we can use those Russian state assets. Now, Aaron, I must say
00:53:48.900 --> 00:53:54.440
that the budget, at least in Canada, is always a bit of an aspirational statement. It lays
00:53:54.440 --> 00:54:01.920
out a few directions, but the guts of the budget we will see in June when the Budget
00:54:01.920 --> 00:54:06.900
Implementation Act is tabled. And a few things have happened since Canada's budget came out.
00:54:06.900 --> 00:54:11.880
I agree with you that Canada did say we want to work in collaboration with our allies.
00:54:11.880 --> 00:54:18.000
The repo act was passed in the US and I believe this may add some wind to our sales that in
00:54:18.000 --> 00:54:24.240
fact we too need to anchor our capacity already to use countermeasures under international
00:54:24.240 --> 00:54:31.840
law, but to anchor them in domestic legislation so that it is more fail-safe. So I'm still
00:54:31.840 --> 00:54:37.420
very much hoping that in this time between now and June that our government looks at
00:54:37.420 --> 00:54:42.540
what the United States is doing and seeks now to emulate the United States. But I believe
00:54:42.540 --> 00:54:49.380
it is the pathway that is being created both by the US and repo and eventually I hope by
00:54:49.380 --> 00:54:55.100
Canada that will give comfort to others who are more risk averse, who are regionally more
00:54:55.100 --> 00:55:06.200
vulnerable. Let me put it this way. So I think seeking solidarity is in sanctions regimes.
00:55:06.200 --> 00:55:12.380
Solidarity always works when sanctions may be nation-based, but when six or seven nations
00:55:12.380 --> 00:55:18.380
do that then it has an impact. So I'm still, you can hear in my voice Aaron, I'm still
00:55:18.380 --> 00:55:24.520
hopeful that Canada will follow the example of the United States now. We had always hoped
00:55:24.520 --> 00:55:28.780
that the United States would follow Canada. Senator, let me follow up on that there because
00:55:28.780 --> 00:55:33.660
I think this is extremely important. Obviously unity is a concept that is talked about a
00:55:33.660 --> 00:55:38.900
lot among the Allies and is prized as a good in itself. But if it's unity around the lowest
00:55:38.900 --> 00:55:43.240
common denominator, it's not good enough for our current circumstance. We need unity around
00:55:43.240 --> 00:55:47.700
the highest common factor. So what does Canada actually expect from those Allies that you
00:55:47.700 --> 00:55:53.700
mentioned who are more risk averse but who have more assets that could be seized? I believe
00:55:53.700 --> 00:56:00.560
Canada as a middle power wants to be seen leading in this file and we have led in this file
00:56:00.560 --> 00:56:06.320
for the last number of years. Others have followed us. In the case of repurposing Russian
00:56:06.320 --> 00:56:14.680
state assets, I agree completely that seizing the state assets and letting Ukraine fight
00:56:14.680 --> 00:56:20.920
its just war with Russian money as opposed to Canadian taxpayer money or US taxpayer money
00:56:20.920 --> 00:56:26.900
is far more just. It also enables us to get to scale in terms of money quickly. There
00:56:26.900 --> 00:56:34.780
is after all $350 billion and most importantly, it doesn't encumber the Ukraine to the extent
00:56:34.780 --> 00:56:43.140
into the future in a post war economy in a way that maybe collateralizing or securitizing
00:56:43.140 --> 00:56:51.760
those assets would. I know that there seem to be two ideas moving at some pace. I'm certainly
00:56:51.760 --> 00:56:59.200
hoping that Canada will have a Churchill moment on this and embrace for me the more, I mean
00:56:59.200 --> 00:57:05.520
I'm an individual senator. What I say or do is really not government policy. It's what
00:57:05.520 --> 00:57:09.820
I'm proposing and I'm certainly hoping that the government between now and the tabling
00:57:09.820 --> 00:57:15.260
of the Budget Implementation Act stiffens its spine a little and that's what is right,
00:57:15.260 --> 00:57:19.700
easy, quick, fast and does not encumber Ukraine into the future.
00:57:19.700 --> 00:57:22.740
So let's talk a little bit about something that you brought up a second ago, which is
00:57:22.740 --> 00:57:28.520
the US repo act, which of course the US is the first country that has passed domestic
00:57:28.520 --> 00:57:32.920
legislation allowing for the seizure of Russian state assets. I of course as a Canadian myself
00:57:32.920 --> 00:57:39.700
was kind of hoping we'd be first, but perhaps going second isn't such a terrible thing either.
00:57:39.700 --> 00:57:48.220
If we do see as you're saying something in the Budget Implementation Act in June or
00:57:48.220 --> 00:57:55.420
anything up until then, what do you think Canadian legislation might do if Canada does
00:57:55.420 --> 00:58:00.300
have its Churchill moment and chooses to lead to that narrative? I mean the repo act certainly
00:58:00.300 --> 00:58:07.700
seems to change that narrative. Does that give us sort of more impetus to kind of find
00:58:07.700 --> 00:58:12.300
our Churchill moment and what do you think that would do to the overall narrative, especially
00:58:12.300 --> 00:58:15.740
because perhaps Europeans would sit there and say, well of course the US is going to
00:58:15.740 --> 00:58:21.740
do this, but Canada, you know, it's a country that is well renowned for its respect for
00:58:21.740 --> 00:58:25.780
international law. It's maybe a little bit harder to ignore. What do you think Canada's
00:58:25.780 --> 00:58:29.060
role could be there? I believe Canada's role would be in carving
00:58:29.060 --> 00:58:36.900
a pathway in terms of domestic legislation and helping other countries craft their own
00:58:36.900 --> 00:58:44.300
pathway. I had begun to hear that Switzerland was pretty keen on this idea as is the UK.
00:58:44.300 --> 00:58:49.260
Everybody's positions now seem to be getting more nuanced a little and shifting a little,
00:58:49.260 --> 00:58:56.780
so I think between now and the next G7 moment is a time for those of us who want to work
00:58:56.780 --> 00:59:00.700
on the asset seizure side to really amplify and ramp up our work.
00:59:00.700 --> 00:59:04.700
Right, indeed, and that's also something that allies are asking from Canada too, other
00:59:04.700 --> 00:59:10.940
allies, because as much as the pocket brigade that Canada has deployed to Latvia is appreciated
00:59:10.940 --> 00:59:15.900
in the region, it's not a full brigade and also Canada's not paying its way in NATO.
00:59:15.900 --> 00:59:21.820
1.29% of GDP on defence spending is not where Canada needs to be on that. So to truly be
00:59:21.820 --> 00:59:25.860
on the team for the victory of democracies against autocracies, I think there's a lot
00:59:25.860 --> 00:59:31.420
of eyes on Ottawa to say, if you're not leading militarily or even not paying your way militarily,
00:59:31.420 --> 00:59:33.860
where is your leadership and your contribution coming from?
00:59:33.860 --> 00:59:40.180
I think Canadians would dispute the implicit conclusion that you are making Benjamin in
00:59:40.180 --> 00:59:45.580
that statement. Canadians see themselves very much on the side of the Ukrainians for a country
00:59:45.580 --> 00:59:51.820
and economy of our size. We have, and I'm not going to use the word generous because
00:59:51.820 --> 01:00:00.740
generous is patronising. We have provided help to the Ukraine in different ways. I won't
01:00:00.740 --> 01:00:06.260
talk about the light-armoured vehicles, for instance, and I know the number is small,
01:00:06.260 --> 01:00:13.820
but I heard from a Ukrainian parliamentarian last week in Ottawa that getting the donation
01:00:13.820 --> 01:00:20.700
of the light-armoured vehicles opened up the pathway for the US to provide strikers because
01:00:20.700 --> 01:00:28.340
the Ukraine could demonstrate that he was able to deal with service and use those LAVs,
01:00:28.340 --> 01:00:33.180
which are the same technology as the US strikers, I believe they are called.
01:00:33.180 --> 01:00:38.860
So we're never going to be the largest donors to Ukraine because we simply, we don't have
01:00:38.860 --> 01:00:44.460
the size of the economy that, let's say, the US has or Germany has, but we can lead with
01:00:44.460 --> 01:00:52.660
good ideas. Now, in this case, I'm certainly going to do everything I can to give the Canadian
01:00:52.660 --> 01:00:59.940
government as best as I can, along with the help of podcasts like this, that the easiest,
01:00:59.940 --> 01:01:07.820
quickest, fastest, most just route to help Ukraine fight this war is to seize those assets.
01:01:07.820 --> 01:01:14.380
Now, maybe we need to de-risk this idea. I've become very conscious of the word risk and
01:01:14.380 --> 01:01:24.340
risk aversion as I have worked on this file. So snatching $350 billion at one fell swoop
01:01:24.340 --> 01:01:31.980
is spooky, perhaps. So perhaps what we can do instead is develop a schedule of asset
01:01:31.980 --> 01:01:38.860
confiscation, which is open, transparent, it accelerates with time at set intervals,
01:01:38.860 --> 01:01:46.660
unless certain Russia is able to meet certain conditions. So that provides a certain amount
01:01:46.660 --> 01:01:53.540
of predictability that we will take the first 10% then and we will take the next 20% then.
01:01:53.540 --> 01:02:05.340
And so that may help to de-risk this whole idea. And there are a lot of vultures, if I
01:02:05.340 --> 01:02:11.420
may say, around this proposal, around what happens to G7 assets that are stranded in
01:02:11.420 --> 01:02:19.420
Russia. And already we've heard that Russia is taking the assets of one country or the
01:02:19.420 --> 01:02:26.500
other way. But if we are only going to view this as a transactional measure, that we'll
01:02:26.500 --> 01:02:31.740
take this and they'll take that, we'll never get back to the heart of what the real question
01:02:31.740 --> 01:02:39.540
is, which is how do we preserve the global order by securing safety and security for
01:02:39.540 --> 01:02:46.860
Ukraine? Because if we let Ukraine fall, then I believe there will be other countries next.
01:02:46.860 --> 01:02:48.540
And that's what we have to stop.
01:02:48.540 --> 01:02:53.660
And I think seizing the assets has certainly plays a huge role in that, partly to give Ukraine
01:02:53.660 --> 01:03:00.000
the amount of cash that it needs right now to be able to actually win this war, not simply
01:03:00.000 --> 01:03:06.900
to put it off to some reconstruction that happens we don't know when. And that presupposes
01:03:06.900 --> 01:03:12.740
the outcome of the war, which we don't know yet. So I really do see the potential for
01:03:12.740 --> 01:03:21.300
Canadian and other leadership on this particular question. But we have to want to win. And
01:03:21.300 --> 01:03:26.620
this is certainly would be a big step in doing that. It seems though that we have to find
01:03:26.620 --> 01:03:32.320
the will to do that the legislative framework is there. You know, this is legal under international
01:03:32.320 --> 01:03:37.680
law. We just have to find the political will to do it as you said the Churchill moment.
01:03:37.680 --> 01:03:42.880
It all comes down to those two words, political will and political will, you know, I've been
01:03:42.880 --> 01:03:51.120
in the political arena for for some time and I can I can say with some with some experience
01:03:51.120 --> 01:03:57.060
that political will is always strengthened when you have more than one in the room.
01:03:57.060 --> 01:04:00.700
And I believe that is what Canada may well be looking for now with the United States
01:04:00.700 --> 01:04:06.460
in the room. Let's also remember the US legislation as Canadians as Canada's proposed legislation
01:04:06.460 --> 01:04:12.660
that I have tabled doesn't doesn't force the government to use the instrument. It enables
01:04:12.660 --> 01:04:16.740
the government to do something if they so choose to do.
01:04:16.740 --> 01:04:21.100
Absolutely. So that's also a task for allies to make sure that Canada doesn't feel a lot
01:04:21.100 --> 01:04:26.160
alone in doing this, make sure that there is there is the political will. And that comes
01:04:26.160 --> 01:04:30.440
from two sources that comes from encouragement, the motivation, but also from pressure. There's
01:04:30.440 --> 01:04:35.400
sticks and there's carrots here. And I think they're being clear about who's contributing
01:04:35.400 --> 01:04:39.880
to this fight and who who isn't is part of that part of that discussion. Senator, we're
01:04:39.880 --> 01:04:44.400
delighted to have had you with us today on Berlin's side out to discuss your proposed
01:04:44.400 --> 01:04:50.560
legislation and the need for Canada to step up and to not only having made this legal
01:04:50.560 --> 01:04:55.660
pave the pave the way, but to actually follow through and blaze that trail for others to
01:04:55.660 --> 01:05:00.100
actually follow in showing that will that it will be needed to win.
01:05:00.100 --> 01:05:03.900
Thank you so much to our panelists for joining us today on part two of our Pillars of Victory
01:05:03.900 --> 01:05:09.060
special focusing on the financial measures we need to win. Thank you also to our technical
01:05:09.060 --> 01:05:13.380
producer, Hendrik Banner and our project assistant, Yelid Stukla. Stay tuned for the rest of
01:05:13.380 --> 01:05:18.260
our season as we get through the real strategic turning point that Germany needs. And we give
01:05:18.260 --> 01:05:23.240
you a sneak peek at what's next for us at Berlin's side out. Until then, from Berlin,
01:05:23.240 --> 01:05:24.680
auf wiedersehen, entschüss.
01:05:24.680 --> 01:05:34.680
[MUSIC]
01:05:34.680 --> 01:05:37.260
(upbeat music)
01:05:37.260 --> 01:05:39.420
[MUSIC PLAYING]