A Conversation with Michael Ippolito

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Thank the station happy Friday we got an unscripted conversation coming at you live me and
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Mike Ipleito are just gonna go at it whenever we talk a bunch in real life it's
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always super I always learn a ton from Mike Ipleito and so I'm going to do that
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again today but this time live on the stream so we're gonna get into that
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conversation but first moment to talk about some of these fantastic sponsors
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as a good mic how you doing do very well man do very well no complaints
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all we'll see a week about you yeah we never have we never ever talk like was
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after that the joke is we actually we talk quite often but we never get to talk
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I think open ended when we do it's usually in some sort of like crowded
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loud environment and not as productive as it could be so I hope that I hope we
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can kind of change the game a little bit with what we talked about today yeah I
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agree well what do you where do you want to start first I mean it's been it's been
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an interesting week it's been an interesting quarter I think things are
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crescendoing in their interest maybe maybe we could start just as like a where
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we left off when we had you on the podcast like half a year ago now and you
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had I think one of the most banger podcasts that we had in a while really just
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talking about the salana thesis the ethereum thesis the cosmos thesis and how
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they're all kind of like representative of different points to enter into a
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becoming a blockchain and how you were saying like everything is kind of
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converging that was like banger episode everyone loved it and I'm just
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wondering like that was six months ago there's a lot of stuff that has happened
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since then maybe that can just present that to you and see where you want to go
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with it yeah I think I think since then we've started to see even more even
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more convergence and one of the you know there's actually a great you know this
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is basically anything that battalya writes is gold right but he's got this
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great very nicely summed up very nicely summed up diagram which is the
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basically three different ways that blockchains are evolving and the common
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component of that is centralized block production but decentralized proofs
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and verification and there are three different ways that that's playing out
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across a whole bunch of different ecosystems right now so like let's take two
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of these examples which would be ethereum where there's ethereum and there are
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centralized builders and a couple of different rollups or there or maybe let's
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call it one large rollup where there's one centralized sequencer that's doing a
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lot of the block construction up there or there's many different rollups which
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is sort of what we're seeing now but mev is ultimately what endrups ends up
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re-centralizing that block production because you have a mev that gets
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extracted with very expensive proposition to build blocks across all these
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different fragmented roles that requires a big centralized build of the
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same way and then on the salon aside of things like this would be sort of the
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high tps chain which is the third leg of that stool you've got obviously higher
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bandwidth and hardware requirements for validators but you actually saw this
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was pretty cool from sovereign labs you saw the very beginnings of a of a
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light client over there an spv type light client and we know we're gonna get
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tiny dancer on the salon aside of things so I think that Vitalik as per usual
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said it much better than than I ever could in a million years but additionally
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like we just saw polygon release something pretty cool this week called the ag
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layer which is this we've been talking a little bit about aggregated zk
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proofs which do something very similar Celestia which I to be honest at the
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time I didn't really get too deep on the design is also very similar kind of
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big blocks a few chunky validators but they've got these light nodes which
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verify and have special powers than the chain so I think of anything it's it's
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pretty live and well so I think that before bankless I did this podcast with
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my old buddy Christian Corolla's who then went on to work at bitcoin media
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and my my arc in that role was like the everything guy so I'm all the
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change the multi-layer ones the the cosmos the interoperability the bridges
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and then he was bitcoin he was the bitcoin and then slowly over time I kind of
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morphed my thinking my like my like just like ideas for how this base would
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converge and then I converged into the Ethereum camp and then became like a
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Bitcoin versus Ethereum podcast and now I'm kind of like going back a little bit
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the other way we're just like you're seeing the writing on the wall like salon
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is not going away there's so there's always so much excitement on like newer
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change no matter what era you're in like right now Celestia is super hyped and
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actually getting real real adoption Monad isn't even live yet and people love
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it already there's always going to be the move towards just like newer
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chains I think people are always going to enjoy new chains and so like I'm
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kind of like waving the flag on just like one central chains that will like
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gobble up everything even though I do think that like there are forces that
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push towards that direction and there always will be but there's also like
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push forces that push away from that direction and they're likely always
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will be because we've definitely seen that over the last like you know it's eight
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years in crypto so David what do you think if you had to outline what do you
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think the forces that push us towards that direction of one chain to rule
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them all and what are the forces that disperse us from that consequence well I
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think the very very simple one is like the bigger that the the top dog chain is
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like the one chain to rule them all the bigger that that one is the stronger of
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an incentive there is to fork off from that chain and try and build a new one
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a better like a better Bitcoin build a better Bitcoin like an Ethereum killer
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so like there's like this natural equilibrium that is set in between like
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it doesn't matter how successful you are the larger the more successful you
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can become the stronger the incentive it is to be to dethrone you
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and then you get into like the vcs playing lengthy alt layer one games which
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you know retail also loves retail loves that game too and so like there is
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and I don't know if there's ever and then also like there there was that meme
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that John Charbonneau tweeted out that I think you retweeted maybe
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and it was like generalized chain wants to become more specific more
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specific or app app wants more sovereignty so it becomes an app chain on a
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generalized chain and then app wants more features becomes more generalized a new
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app comes and is born on that slightly more generalized chain and then now
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that app wants more sovereignty so it makes an app chain and there's like a
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cycle there's always just like you can't have too much of anything
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because there will always be some sort of opposing force to check on that
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and so that's kind of what I'm saying like I'm just ready for like the new crop
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of layer one so like gain of attention attention in this bull market and
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this cycle repeats I'm with you another way of saying that vcs and retail love
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new layer ones is entrepreneurs love it too that is I think the single driving force which is
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just that entrepreneur sees inevitably with these you know with blockchain architectures you
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have to make trade-offs and there's always like one smart person who's like I don't really like
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that you made this trade-off I actually think there's a market for someone who made the opposite
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side of this trade-off and then they go do that so every experiment ultimately ends up getting
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run and again I think that's I think that's a positive thing but that's a that's a funny meme
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because I think also one thing that might be changing at least my world view about how I used
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to think about things I used to think about the world very black and white between general
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block space versus app specific so like generals like ethereum right like you can do anything you want
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it's the world computer and then osmosis is an example of an app specific chain it just wants to be
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a dex that's what its block space is optimized for but it's kind of converging in both directions
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and even the general blockchains like ethereum's roadmap now looks like the main chain is a bullet
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in proof or a bulletin board for posting ZK proofs and it's exporting money and it's like well
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bitcoin kind of started general but now it's the app chain for money ethereum looks like it's
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heading in that direction so ethereum is specializing but then some of those decks is like osmosis
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like yeah we've got a dex but you should come build a dex on our dex you know and say like yeah
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we're actually you know we're building you know sector specific block space so all of our
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validated have to run their own order matching engines like you know we're kind of converging on
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it probably both sides that you know once you have an app that reaches some amount of product
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market fit you want to expand but the big really general ones are like actually the world is
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just too big we need to specify so we're kind of converging there as well I would say are you
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saying that there's no such thing as actually truly general block space I think yeah I think I'm
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landing on that I don't think I think it might be a myth similar to bridging okay so but ethereum
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at block at the genesis block in 2015 and then before it became had any sort of like actual
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real applications on it that was general block space right yeah yeah yeah unmore and then had
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to specialize at some point and then had to specialize yeah but is ethereum specializing now
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I guess now it will still be pretty general until denkoon and that is the first
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entrance instance of ethereum specializing with blobspace right like it's still pretty general
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up into that point it's just like the apps have started to force it into being more dedicated
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towards pacific reasons but not not anything inherently at the base protocol I think ultimately
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even like salana which is the you know it's the light speed it's the world it's consensus
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that the speed of nasdaq global all that stuff it's probably going to have to end up specializing
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I'm not technical enough to be like at this level of throughput this many transactions this globally
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distributed is when you'd have to start specializing but I sort of do trust the modular camp that
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eventually not the entire internet can sit on one layer with one set of validators ultimately
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you're going to need to start specializing so I think it's coming for ethereum and salana and
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not in a bad way it's just hey we have product market fit on these certain things we should double
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down on this and really expand yeah well I think we just did this super long podcast with mic newter
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and domathy two hours 45 minutes around the ethereum roadmap and that's kind of like when
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in like once again it was impressive on me that the long term conclusion of ethereum is this like
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super lightweight layer one blockchain that just receives and verifies proofs of what could be
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anything at higher levels and then and that's also what the bitcoiners want bitcoin to be like
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that is if you're a bitcoin builder if you're a bitcoin renaissance not a bitcoin maxi then like
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you're really interested in bitcoin being like the truth layer for any sort of expressive alternative
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layers they've just never been able to figure out how to get bitcoin to become that but that is
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what bitcoin wants to be according to them and the thing is like if bitcoin achieves that like
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there's a lot of focus on the bit VM right now if bitcoin achieves that then like it's actually
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achieved that faster than ethereum did and without all of the like technical debt that ethereum has
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which is kind of funny it would be hysterical if they wound up doing basically the same thing but
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I also think here's a challenge or here's just something I've been trying to think through when
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it comes to bitcoin you let me know so the great thing about ethereum from a monetary
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standpoint is it's this very large very liquid asset and people historically want to do things with
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that asset is this culture of like okay I have my ethereum then I'd buy an NFT or I'd deposit
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into this defy protocol or I'm gonna restake it and loop up probably not financial advice maybe
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don't do that so much but still there's this culture of like once you have this crypto native capital
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ethereum's tend to want to unlock that capital whereas that's much less proven out in the world
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of bitcoin bitcoin is the largest bitcoin is the largest form or pool of crypto native capital but
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and there there was early product market fit through block file like you saw bitcoiners wanted to
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earn yield on their bitcoin there is a culture there of not wanting to do things like the culture
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and bitcoin is like I bury the shit deep in cold storage you know right it's like Arctic tundra cold
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storage so I how much of that unlocks into these new cool use cases on drive teens that I have no
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idea I have no idea and that's the big question okay yeah I think I have some sort of like not
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and not answer but just like I think why there is that culture in bitcoin is because they haven't
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been given the tools to express themselves in their desire for more productive asset in bitcoin
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and so like all of the people who are like I'm gonna you dig a five-foot hole inside my backyard
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and bury my bitcoins in it and not touch it those people have all of the tools to like broadcast
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their culture and their preferences because bitcoin hasn't been expressive but now we actually
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have like ordinals as a tool for bitcoins to be like no I want to like play with my bitcoin
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yeah and there's actually a bunch of deals that we're like looking at at the bankless ventures
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but do you actually know that you know who's the largest custodian of bitcoin like who's got all
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the bitcoin finance because like people just trust Binance with their bitcoins Binance custody
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and so like there are deals like who are working inside of this realm of just like actually
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there's a lot of bitcoins who have given up their private keys because that's what that's whatever
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and so they're trying to build like utility around that whole part of the world and so I think
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once bitcoins have like the tools to be de-gents then they will become de-gents I think so too
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so one of our we going into this year prediction episode one of my highest convictions bets was
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actually bitcoin jpegs for exactly this reason so I've been cheering on just because you know when
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c5 blew up it it eliminated the the tools for bitcoins to do anything with their bitcoin right
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but I think basically block file in Celsius was proof positive that people do bitcoins do actually
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want to earn yield on their bitcoin do fun things I just don't know enough about the limitations
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of building on bitcoin to know if like for instance like bitcoin still those blocks are tiny
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and there are 10 minute block times not 12 seconds like the 12 second block times are tough
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enough in ethereum like I just don't have a good enough sense about what the actual
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technical limitations are of that but jpegs are just so easy yeah I want to buy this monkey jpeg
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if this looks cool it is going to funny how fast jpeg culture got in septent to bitcoin
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I feel like they have a bigger jpeg culture than ethereum does these days they do and and low key
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magic Eden you know they pivoted away from slana but they basically own they have super dominant
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market share there like if you want to trade a bitcoin jpeg you basically go to magic Eden so
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props them for doing that what do you think david about there have been a lot of hot takes on the
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death of the 10,000 pfp collection what do you think about that the death of the 10,000 pfp collection
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well what what was the last 10,000 pfp collection to really come out well I guess you had like
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mad lads I don't know if it was actually 10,000 but that was some mad lads was yeah it counts right
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mad lads was like a year ago yeah yeah there's like there's like the brine I'm throwing one
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on base but that's it never really exploded beyond base right I agree yeah I wouldn't count that
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I mean in slana there have been a couple there have been tensorians I would put in there as well
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there's a bitcoin I don't know how many there there are but there's node monkeys and there's
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there's also there's the bitcoin which is right and they want to catch quantum cash was like
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the new one which minted out 0.1 bitcoins and are got up to like I don't I haven't
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checked the price in last like week or so but like the last I checked it was like 0.27 bitcoins
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that's what node monkeys was trading out I was like I just can't make myself do that
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that's too high too high yeah so well what do you think about that as a concept because you know
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that if you were against that concept you'd say this was ridiculous these JPEGs aren't
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worth very much and there's no reason they ever sort of traded at that valuation but I think there's
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maybe another case there too I mean in a digital world I've always thought like the pfp
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like utility on your profile it has has immense utility like me too it's to the point where I'm
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like meeting people at a conference and I'm like trying to like get a grip grab like a grass
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one who they are and then they show me their Twitter and I recognize immediately their pfp
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and that hasn't seemed to be like taken up lately I think people care a lot less about that now
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and people just ignoring that aspect but that was like a big thing last cycle and I don't know why
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that would like go away it didn't seem like a flash in the pan they've got built-in distribution
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there's a guy named Scott Galloway who's kind of this talking head but he also he's pretty good on
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brand not so great on crypto but he's he's really good on brand and you know he he talks about
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basically every all the great products out there they end up applying they they tap into this
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very primal human desire so it could be like sexual fitness it could be survival and security
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whatever and pfp's kind of have that it's a flex right like some people just don't get that and
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some people have fucking crypto punk right here baby there you go yeah I've been saying for months
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that I'm gonna get get art here and hang it up I haven't done it yet but every time I go over
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to your place I'm like yeah I actually got to do this but yeah I think it's um I think it's uh
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I mean it definitely taps into that the other thing they have really native built-in distribution
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like better native morality than maybe any other product that exists and he's an interesting
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thing that started to happen as well is have you been noticing that these pfp collections like
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bad kids or pudgies are getting uh air drops yeah yeah certainly uh pudgies would love to tell
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you all about the air drops that they're getting but that can't that can't be there's limited ammo
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there right so let me describe so here's why it makes sense from the perspective of protocol that's
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air dropping imagine you are about to launch your protocol and what you want to do is you might
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have multiple different objectives right like starkler is pretty interesting they wanted to do
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they want to bring they want to reward their early users they want to attract new users they want
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to reward and continue to incentivize the developer community they want to uh transition some people
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who are uh staking on eath to be like restaked operators on eigenmyers so they've all these objectives
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their problem is uh similar right like that's the big thing you don't want it can just these
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industrial air drop farmers to come in and take everything so NFTs communities are this really
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interesting intersection of both those things where they're cybelt right um so you're not going
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to be dumping that to air drop farmers and they're wealthy new community members right like if you
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have a the floor of pudgies like 50,000 bucks so if you're dropping to the pudgy community you know if
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you get even a really low conversion rate that's probably worth it you know you've probably got
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acquired some really high value customers so I feel like we're a couple months out from all these
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threads being like I paid for my pudgy with xyz air drops and yeah so I could see that being a huge
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and there's gonna be a million air drops this year as well so yeah there are going to be a million
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air drops is actually kind of nuts um but okay but pudgies got like two air drops though like I don't
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know if we have enough data to say that this is this is I maybe you're just saying it doesn't
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data doesn't matter this is just what it makes sense to you this is what makes sense to me yeah but
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like pudgies are just so far away from just like stark net yeah I so stark net stark net didn't do this
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but like dimension like the dimension air drop the dimension air drop got targeted pudgies and
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bad kids and some of the other end of teeth questions did you know about dimension before it's
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air drop I had heard of it but I I couldn't have articulated what it did because there are these
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tokens that are getting air drops and all of a sudden these protocols are like between like two
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and ten billion dollars that I've never heard of before yeah I'm on this page for you dude if you
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have a logical explanation for why dimension is trading where it's trading I would I would all
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years no clue dude it's just like I I lost my like well I need to go find it it's somewhere I
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send it to an address I need to go find which address but I haven't been able to actually like
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sell my dym and that's what I've heard is like people just like can't figure out how to actually
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sell the tokens but it's not the only one right like Altair also drops into some sort of insane
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valuation and I don't think anyone heard of it like a month prior yeah I mean even the FDV
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of Starknet is I mean Starknet's obviously a super credible you know very attractive project
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but like that's super high I mean these are some of these are great projects but even like Gido
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and Jupiter like great projects you know but they're launching a multi-billion dollar FDVs
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like crazy and I know people say that at this point FDV is a meme in the cycle and then people
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don't care until they do but I think people watch FDVs I I look at FDV exclusively and I sometimes
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I feel like an asshole for doing that because everyone says the FDV is a meme but I'm like what is
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the most rational number that exists yeah well here's the other I mean the other I'd love to get
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advances take on that can you next time you have a podcast with Vance can you ask about that yeah
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actually in one of the early bell curve episodes he was like wait what do you guys look at
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market cap or FDV and we pause and he was like please for the love of God there's a right answer
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here so I know he's on the FDV train but yeah I don't I don't really have a great explanation for
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it other than just like wrist there's just the market is just kind of risk on again right yeah
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that's that's kind of like yeah people just are not hitting the cell button people are hitting the
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buy button yeah no and and to be fair I mean maybe to assign like some amount of rational thinking
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to the sick are you selling anything right now no yeah okay so like the the two air drops that I
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got which are big fans of Altair and Dimension both of them I'm like well if I keep them it might
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qualify me for a future air drop if I don't sell so also you probably just answer that question
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so yeah and just on the margin people like well you know I feel like everyone is in the same
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you know we're crypto what the total market cap right now is it like two trillion right Bitcoin is
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you know 20 25% off its all-time highs I think most people have the same framework that
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we're gonna slowly grind up from here and then it really gets on you know the party really starts
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when we cross the all-time high so I guess to answer my own question why are you selling anything
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at the current moment you probably you probably don't and and I everyone has these stories too
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right of like an air drop that they flipped and they you know they tweet out oh I would have had
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one and a half million dollars so that's definitely the mindset that I have I'm just holding
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out everything for most part right now so dude the the I think everyone is trying to be Celestia
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right now every like there are future projects that are going to air drop their tokens and they're
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like how do we air drop our tokens at a low valuation so that it can pump for a long time afterwards
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like how do we do that I'm like you guys can't force the markets to do anything but like the fact
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that Celestia dropped and it just rocked it and did a 10x to air drop holders kicking off like the
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bull market like blowing up the whole like modular money meme into like this new mind share that
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everyone has and then actually getting adoption by some of the Ethereum roll ups and it was air drop
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to a bunch of like random people and then it pumped 10x that's like the bar that everyone will
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remember that if that they're like that this air drop could be that this air drop could be that
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and like the next year of air drops we're all gonna hold our air drops because it could do a Celestia
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but even when Celestia launched I don't remember thinking that was particularly cheap you know
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it's like it was launched at a right two billion dollar FTV is like oh it's like a lot I you know
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but it just ran and it was did not stop yeah I mean Celestia is a phenomenal project and they
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preserve it but like that that initial price action was I'm sure massive for the general psychology
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product right so yeah right but you know Celestia is also kind of like Celestia is also you know
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going back to this convergence thing you know Bitcoin bulletin board where you can put like
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really small blocks doesn't even support smart contracts that's where Ethereum headed that's
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what Celestia is doing as well Celestia is actually really similar to Bitcoin in its construction
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because it also you can't it doesn't support smart contracts at the you know at their layer so
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yeah in a lot of ways like that's all that's a super interesting ecosystem I would say as well
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yeah I have not yet been able to like categorize Celestia very well in my brain like in the big
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blocker category but not not no virtual machines or no settlement I don't know how to think about
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Celestia yeah so the way that I think about Celestia is they have found a way to
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obviate a lot of the negative trade-offs of what was this huge argument back in the day of
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the block science war and there were two very different camps of thinking about blockchains which
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is one you know you want to keep the ironically actually the small block camp is not the way
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that Satoshi thought about it I know it's gotten a rebrand but like at the original vision of
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the big in the Bitcoin white paper is digital peer-to-peer cash which required scaling hardware
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and so eventually they're you know you came to this disagreement about like how big do we make
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the blocks the miners wanted bigger blocks the core devs did not want as bigger blocks and ultimately
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Bitcoin I think made the right decision and went the the small block route I think a lot of
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that design inspiration is found its way into Ethereum the Ethereum way of thinking as well as
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just the next large successful blockchain post post Bitcoin and I think Solana and Celestia
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had put in this camp of you know the Solana approach is that we're going to have larger validators
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now we're going to do can they don't even really have a concept of block building for it's continuous
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building but it's basically like allow for larger validators now let you know let as what's that law
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where Moore's law hard brick Moore's law to catch up on costs and eventually we'll be able to
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decentralize that way and Celestia has a different approach where they say we're okay with big blocks
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we actually are going to have fewer validators that are bigger and more expensive still permissionless
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but there's a barrier to entry but what we have that the the big Corners didn't have at that
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other time is these things called light nodes and this technology called data availability sampling
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so what the light nodes do is they basically can call a check on the few chunkier nodes that are
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producing these very big very cheap blocks to keep them honest you know to to talk about at a very
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high level so it's kind of a cool best of both worlds type thing um and that's that's the that's
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the architecture right and after that go back so it goes back to what you're saying about Vitalik's
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vision of just like big big blocks being checked by small blocks basically big block philosophy being
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checked by small block philosophy exactly yeah um and I do think you know honestly Polygon has done
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a really good job of this I'm not actually a huge fan of ag layer branding but I think they've
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kind of nailed it with that design yeah I actually have not looked into that I think we might
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have a show scheduled or something like this uh what what is the aggrandan is the guy yeah basically
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the idea like my my brain breaks around zk proofs like either on math it's just beyond a less
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side of the darker guy like me but basically the idea is that all right if you you know take take
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the example that you want to do things on like you are on chain x and you want to do things on
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chain y and maybe that's a swap or something like that um that requires multiple different
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legs to to ultimately end up getting completed you need proof somehow you on chain x need proof
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that this thing happened on chain y so though that's what these execution proofs are they get
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posted to the central layer so everyone knows that um you that everyone has done the action that
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they said that they were going to do the big question about zk proofs and these ag layers in general
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is what is the setup of the proving is it decentralized what is the cost what is the latency because
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obviously if you can only make what send one of these proofs you know once a year then that's not
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useful to anyone yeah but if you could do it every one or two seconds which is where polygon wants
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to get pretty freaking useful actually is it just a settlement layer that's on top of Ethereum but
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below the layer twos i think i would think if it almost is kind of next to the layer twos it basically
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just allows you to take there are all these different execution environments which are super
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different from one another right and originally like we kind of thought it would be really nice if
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these execution environments all could like directly pipe into each other and talk to each other
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but now what the the ag layer concept sort of asks is i'm just going to let you do things the way
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that you would like to do them in your layer i'm going to do them the way that i would like to do
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them in my layer i'm going to create a proof that the outcome that important outcome here don't
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really care how you did it but the outcome here that you said that you were going to do is is right
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and that all goes this common layer so i don't know if it's on top of a below or next to but like
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right it's it's complimentary i think to the there's there's a lot of these composability
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technologies as being uh innovated on in the ethereum landscape and some of them overlap some
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of them don't overlap some of them are solving their own problems in different ways uh and there's
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like eight of them eight eight different categories of like ways of solving ethereum composability
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and they're all happening in parallel uh and coordination between because like in order to actually
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get perfect composability it's going to need to take like the best of all of these things and put
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it into one like more seamless solution which sounds like a massive coordination lift but uh
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the only like thought that i have about ethereum composability is that it dies a thousand cuts
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like there's no one golden silver bullet it just dies in a bunch of small different ways
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or what if the best solution just wins or what one but i don't know i haven't
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seen one solution actually be able to encompass all types of composability issues is i haven't seen
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that well all right here's the maybe to move into like some spicier waters here but
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i think the challenge with the challenge with the eth roll-up landscape as it exists today it's
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actually that the roll-ups don't have as much of an incentive to uh be composable as you might think
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i think everyone would say that they want to but really the economic incentive is to keep people
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00:32:52.480 --> 00:32:56.560
they want to inspire it but not in their bags yeah they want everyone else to do the thing that i'm
402
00:32:56.560 --> 00:33:00.080
doing like we should all in a robbery right i've got these great statements take my time yeah
403
00:33:00.160 --> 00:33:05.440
polygon come be an opi-staction come on come on i've been working so hard for this you know
404
00:33:08.240 --> 00:33:12.240
but i think they'll get but so that i think that's the challenge is i think what you're
405
00:33:13.040 --> 00:33:17.040
alluding to david is it's not necessarily a technical challenge there are probably multiple
406
00:33:17.040 --> 00:33:22.000
different technical like tech solutions that could work but it's kind of a social it's a social
407
00:33:22.000 --> 00:33:27.760
challenge and i ultimately think the market is gonna end up proving out like here's a question
408
00:33:27.760 --> 00:33:33.280
that i've been asking myself so ethereum what it's trying to do as a as a protocol is to
409
00:33:33.280 --> 00:33:38.480
export its currency the the way where it's exporting itself is its roll-up environment
410
00:33:39.760 --> 00:33:44.960
how is where is the ether going to go is it going to go evenly distributed to every roll-up
411
00:33:44.960 --> 00:33:52.720
do optimism and arbitrum end up taking the lion's share of that eth do uh do weird schemes like
412
00:33:52.720 --> 00:33:58.240
blast end up taking a shit ton of eth because they're offering yield when no one else is how do you
413
00:33:58.240 --> 00:34:02.880
think like i'm curious there's a ton of eth out there how do you think when they get pushed up
414
00:34:02.880 --> 00:34:10.640
these roll-ups like how's it gonna shake out like where are the final uh syncs for eth in the grand
415
00:34:10.640 --> 00:34:17.520
scheme of things yeah yeah hmm and we're not talking about eigenlayer because it's still on the
416
00:34:17.520 --> 00:34:23.440
layer one yeah well that'll be another sync too i think are you asking like a pick your chains
417
00:34:23.440 --> 00:34:28.160
like is it optimism is arbitrum or are you kind of like basically where i'm getting is like i
418
00:34:28.160 --> 00:34:32.480
what i would guess is there's this like power law where the the bigger like let's just say there's
419
00:34:32.480 --> 00:34:38.240
a couple of different syncs for eth right there's like the roll-up sync which is um probably where most
420
00:34:38.240 --> 00:34:42.480
of the eth i would say is going then there's probably this sort of weird sync for people that
421
00:34:42.480 --> 00:34:47.200
want to wrap their eth and use it on salana which i guess is like a really small market and then there's
422
00:34:47.200 --> 00:34:53.760
this kind of restaked uh sync where you know you stake it in uh in light or something like that and
423
00:34:53.760 --> 00:34:58.960
then you go into this crazy liquid restaking ecosystem and do a bunch of yield type activities
424
00:34:58.960 --> 00:35:02.880
but i think people that want to use eth the way that you and i have thought about using eth in the past
425
00:35:02.880 --> 00:35:07.920
they want to do stuff like buy NFTs or trade or whatever right i think they'll end up on these roll-ups
426
00:35:07.920 --> 00:35:13.520
and i'm guessing a huge amount of eth is gonna migrate up there it already is uh so is it gonna
427
00:35:13.520 --> 00:35:19.120
evenly distribute like you know two-week for arbitrum two-week for optimism one-week for scroll or
428
00:35:19.120 --> 00:35:25.120
is it going to like accelerate and more eth is going to pour into the roll-up that already has the
429
00:35:25.120 --> 00:35:31.280
advantage if you know it really depends on the categories of composability solutions that we come
430
00:35:31.280 --> 00:35:37.840
up with uh because like if there is uh so like say there's like a sliding scale of composability across
431
00:35:37.840 --> 00:35:44.080
roll-ups and like on the zero side we just can't figure it out like bridging takes you know you know
432
00:35:44.080 --> 00:35:49.520
minutes and days there's like you know asynchronous uniswap pools that take forever to settle
433
00:35:49.520 --> 00:35:54.720
there's like high arbitrage between these things composability sliders at zero versus composability
434
00:35:54.720 --> 00:35:59.440
sliders all the way at a hundred and there's like perfect synchronous universal composability
435
00:35:59.440 --> 00:36:04.480
it's one single state even though there's many different chains like cross-chain contract calls
436
00:36:04.560 --> 00:36:09.600
are perfectly seamless and they never fail and so like we're at we started at zero we're already
437
00:36:09.600 --> 00:36:14.160
marching somewhere further away from zero so we're already off of zero in composability maybe we're
438
00:36:14.160 --> 00:36:20.880
at five ten fifteen something um still pretty low and the really the question is is like how far
439
00:36:20.880 --> 00:36:25.520
down the slider of perfect synchronous composability can we get and can we get to a hundred and if
440
00:36:25.520 --> 00:36:32.000
we can get to a hundred then there is no sink there is no chain that dominates all of the defi there's
441
00:36:32.000 --> 00:36:37.680
no like defi chain if if we stayed closer towards zero my answer would be like the defi chain
442
00:36:37.680 --> 00:36:41.760
all of the liquidity all of the capital would aggregate into the the defi chain and then you would
443
00:36:41.760 --> 00:36:46.400
have like systems like stark net which would be like the fully on-chain gaming chain that doesn't
444
00:36:46.400 --> 00:36:50.640
really need that much eath it just needs payments right and then there'll be like the Zora it
445
00:36:50.640 --> 00:36:54.640
doesn't need that much eath it just needs payments right and so like there will be like the one
446
00:36:54.640 --> 00:36:59.520
single defi chain and then ten thousand payments chains and the payment chains would be for different
447
00:36:59.520 --> 00:37:05.040
purposes like gaming or collecting or whatever. But then as we start to slide on down the scale,
448
00:37:05.840 --> 00:37:11.840
like if we get passed on the composability scale to the point where like uni chain is its own
449
00:37:11.840 --> 00:37:16.960
chain and not a deployment on arbitrum and optimism and polygon and whatever. And if we get that far
450
00:37:16.960 --> 00:37:23.200
and like trading on uniswap is a contract called to uni chain and that can happen in settlement
451
00:37:23.200 --> 00:37:29.040
across rollups, then all of a sudden capital will be much more diffuse across the rollups.
452
00:37:29.760 --> 00:37:34.000
Because then you'll have uni chain, maybe you'll have compound chain, then you'll have like the
453
00:37:34.000 --> 00:37:38.080
general purpose chains like arbitrum and optimism and attracting like whatever activity they're
454
00:37:38.080 --> 00:37:41.760
going to attract. And then there's going to be a lot more of like application specific
455
00:37:41.760 --> 00:37:45.920
rollups doing whatever the hell they want. And then it'll be a lot more diffuse. So my answer is
456
00:37:45.920 --> 00:37:53.280
like it really depends on that slider when we're we end up. Yeah. I don't know. I think
457
00:37:53.280 --> 00:37:57.520
that composability stuff is going to take a while. So I would bet on high. Yes, it's going to take
458
00:37:57.520 --> 00:38:01.600
a while. So I feel like there's a path dependence thing here where it's a little bit of a race.
459
00:38:01.600 --> 00:38:05.120
Like if I was sitting in the if I was sitting in the driver's seat of one of these big frameworks,
460
00:38:05.120 --> 00:38:10.320
I'd be like, how can I get as much ethon to my platform as I possibly can right now? Because I
461
00:38:10.320 --> 00:38:16.080
feel like that's going to be a colossal moat. So is that what you think blasts explicitly?
462
00:38:16.080 --> 00:38:24.320
What blast was doing? Yeah. Yeah. I do. There's not in your terms. And they're like we're just
463
00:38:24.320 --> 00:38:27.840
going to do whatever we can to get as much ethos possible because the door is shutting. And so we're
464
00:38:27.840 --> 00:38:33.280
going to play whatever game possible to make that happen. I am I like I don't know Pac-Man. I
465
00:38:33.280 --> 00:38:38.880
actually like I'd like the way he thinks a lot. I'm not 100% sure if I'm a big fan of
466
00:38:39.680 --> 00:38:45.600
blast yet. But here's my here's the here's the logical series of events as I saw it. He launches
467
00:38:45.600 --> 00:38:52.160
blur, right? It's NFT trading. Very, very successful in taking market share from OpenC. Just like
468
00:38:52.160 --> 00:38:56.960
every other exchange operator that's ever operated on Ethereum says these gas gas fees suck.
469
00:38:56.960 --> 00:39:02.160
Oh, this is great. We have these new things called layer two which have cheap gas fees. Man,
470
00:39:03.200 --> 00:39:07.440
why would I take this app where I have a ton of product market fit on and go lunch on someone
471
00:39:07.440 --> 00:39:13.120
else's L2. I'm going to create my own L2. Here's the problem though. I don't I'm going to launch
472
00:39:13.120 --> 00:39:19.600
this L2 and there's going to be no liquidity. It's a shame. Can I get the liquidity on? Oh, I know.
473
00:39:19.600 --> 00:39:25.520
I'll allow people I'll do it with yield. You know, I'll allow people to earn yield. And I think
474
00:39:26.160 --> 00:39:34.160
that was the series of events that if I had the guess. Yeah. I've never understood the blast
475
00:39:34.160 --> 00:39:40.240
yield incentive because I have ETH in Ave on optimism except in like and I have like
476
00:39:40.240 --> 00:39:45.600
stables borrowed against it. And it's steak teeth. It's Lido's steak teeth. So I'm getting the same
477
00:39:45.600 --> 00:39:52.400
ETH on optimism that someone else is on blast. So what's the fucking deal? Well, I probably a lot
478
00:39:52.400 --> 00:39:58.160
of these people are air drop farming is right now. Right. That's what I would guess. Yeah. So
479
00:39:58.160 --> 00:40:03.360
they're probably air drop farming. And it's kind of this idea like I really think crypto people
480
00:40:03.360 --> 00:40:09.360
love yield. Tradify people love yield. I had a conversation with someone who works at a big
481
00:40:09.360 --> 00:40:15.120
very crypto native but very tradify type trading desk and they were describing to me. So most of
482
00:40:15.120 --> 00:40:20.000
the liquidity still exists in Bitcoin and ETH around trading pairs. Right. So if you want to trade
483
00:40:20.000 --> 00:40:23.760
in and out of something the highest likelihood is that you're going to have the most liquidity on
484
00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:29.600
an ETH or Bitcoin cross. It's like 70%. But what they don't like doing is just holding
485
00:40:30.560 --> 00:40:35.520
ETH or Bitcoin on their balance sheet because it doesn't earn any yield. So now what they have is
486
00:40:35.520 --> 00:40:41.600
they're swapping out their non yield earnings tables for there's a new compliant yield earnings
487
00:40:41.600 --> 00:40:45.760
table. The hash notes just launch this week and they're going to hold Steath. And when they
488
00:40:45.760 --> 00:40:51.360
want to make a trade they move from Steath into ETH back into the yield bearing thing. And they're
489
00:40:51.360 --> 00:40:57.040
trying to literally David reduce the amount of time that they're in non yield bearing stuff.
490
00:40:57.040 --> 00:41:02.960
So this is this is the yield thing is not a story that's going away. And I mean it is kind of
491
00:41:02.960 --> 00:41:07.200
nice. Right. Like I could just I don't even have to think about it on this L2 just whenever I'm in
492
00:41:07.200 --> 00:41:12.400
ETH I'm just earning yield on it. That's kind of nice. Yeah. And it solves a problem that's a
493
00:41:12.400 --> 00:41:16.720
different problem which is like when I go on to optimism or arbitrum or like I look at my wallet
494
00:41:16.720 --> 00:41:21.760
and I'm like ETH but like the optimism logo and then ETH but the arbitrum logo. And like so
495
00:41:21.760 --> 00:41:29.440
so like what you if you there can't be like Lido ETH on blast it just has to be blast ETH
496
00:41:29.440 --> 00:41:33.840
and they have to homogenize all ETH that goes on to their layer two like it can't have any sort
497
00:41:33.840 --> 00:41:38.400
of like derivative in front of it because it all needs to be blast ETH. But maybe I guess that's
498
00:41:38.400 --> 00:41:42.320
table six for all layer two's though. It's table six for all layer two's. I actually think you just
499
00:41:42.320 --> 00:41:47.120
hit on a super important point. This is not my observation. This was John tribes observation which
500
00:41:47.760 --> 00:41:52.640
give him the credit for the initial observation and then I want to abstain from any incorrect
501
00:41:52.640 --> 00:41:58.880
conclusions that I draw from it. But basically it's really protective from all the wrong stuff that
502
00:41:58.880 --> 00:42:04.800
I say after this. But the idea like every single ETH instance that exists off of main chain is a
503
00:42:04.800 --> 00:42:10.160
wrap version of that ETH. Like it's OPE, if it's RV, et cetera. So once you've made that
504
00:42:10.160 --> 00:42:15.440
and then to leap why wouldn't you just hold the yield bearing version of that wrap token? Yeah.
505
00:42:15.440 --> 00:42:23.200
I agree with that. And that's why I have staked. I have Lido staked ETH on optimism inside
506
00:42:23.200 --> 00:42:31.680
OPE. And so I have OPE wrapped staked ETH. Optimism wrapped OPE staked ETH. That's the derivative
507
00:42:31.680 --> 00:42:36.880
set that I have. It just feels a little bit more complicated than just as soon as I get up there,
508
00:42:36.880 --> 00:42:43.440
I'm immediately earning yield. And it just feels like I don't even know. I think we'll see. I just
509
00:42:43.440 --> 00:42:49.520
I don't know. But it's it was a novel strategy that other protocols weren't doing at the time that
510
00:42:49.520 --> 00:42:54.960
clearly allowed him to attract an enormous amount of liquidity. It will probably allow him to
511
00:42:54.960 --> 00:43:00.480
attract a lot of activity up to that roll up. And it'll be a good home for blur, which is where I
512
00:43:00.480 --> 00:43:06.880
assuming that they're going to migrate. I'm just skeptical as to like how because a ton of ETH
513
00:43:06.880 --> 00:43:12.480
went into blast and blast had the we have native ETH yielding ETH on our our layer two,
514
00:43:12.480 --> 00:43:18.560
which doesn't exist. And then also the the point farms right also the token air drops. And like
515
00:43:18.560 --> 00:43:23.920
everyone is describing a ton of legitimacy to like blasts new innovative strategy of native yield.
516
00:43:24.800 --> 00:43:28.560
But really but really it was legitimized by the point farming and maybe it was actually not
517
00:43:28.560 --> 00:43:32.320
that big of a deal. We were just thinking it's a big deal because of all the ETH that it got from
518
00:43:32.320 --> 00:43:37.040
the point farming. Like I'm worried that we're running into that trap. David let me ask you a question.
519
00:43:38.000 --> 00:43:42.720
All of this interest in eigenlayer. How much of it do you think is the demand is coming from
520
00:43:42.720 --> 00:43:49.760
yield from ABS versus farming eigenlayer points? Okay, eigenlayer had hype before the point farm.
521
00:43:50.560 --> 00:43:57.040
I agree. I agree. But but but then the point farm and I do think that I think a lot of people are
522
00:43:57.040 --> 00:44:01.280
in there for the point. So yeah. And that's the hope of this whole thing, right? It's like you
523
00:44:02.000 --> 00:44:05.680
the value proposition to someone that is you're blowing into eigenlayer because
524
00:44:05.920 --> 00:44:10.000
eigenlayer if the team is phenomenal. But there is eventually going to be slashing risks.
525
00:44:10.000 --> 00:44:14.640
There is smart contract risk. You know the the way that they solve this cold start problem with
526
00:44:14.640 --> 00:44:18.400
this cool idea. But if I'm not getting this extra thing, I don't want to risk my funds is
527
00:44:20.400 --> 00:44:25.840
points and rewards and all that stuff. That's how our system works. And some brave souls will try it.
528
00:44:25.840 --> 00:44:30.480
Some will be rewarded and some are going to get in trouble for for taking too much risk.
529
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:34.720
But the eigenlayer part of the ecosystem you know you and I talked about this a lot. It's
530
00:44:34.720 --> 00:44:39.440
definitely I'm like simultaneously the most concerned about it, but I'm the most interested in it
531
00:44:39.440 --> 00:44:43.680
and excited about it at the same time. I think it is where a lot of the action is going to happen
532
00:44:43.680 --> 00:44:50.080
this cycle. Yeah, I judge ecosystems by their ability to nerds night people into crypto. So like
533
00:44:50.080 --> 00:44:55.600
Bitcoin won because it nerds typed like the digital gold bugs and like gave them a banner to like
534
00:44:55.600 --> 00:45:01.280
rally under. And then Ethereum nerds snipped a certain set of people and would that was
535
00:45:01.280 --> 00:45:05.840
sufficiently large to create the Ethereum ecosystem. Solana nerds snipped a bunch of other people
536
00:45:05.840 --> 00:45:12.880
that Bitcoin and Ethereum did not nerds snipe. And I'm I'm watching eigenlayer nerds night people
537
00:45:12.880 --> 00:45:17.600
that know nothing else in crypto has ever nerds snipped people before. Both people in like
538
00:45:17.600 --> 00:45:24.560
on Wall Street and Silicon Valley like the SaaS SaaS companies can like rally behind eigenlayer.
539
00:45:24.560 --> 00:45:28.240
Don't care about Bitcoin. Don't care about Ethereum. Don't care about Solana. But just like
540
00:45:28.240 --> 00:45:32.160
trust as this like module that they can like incorporate in through their product offering.
541
00:45:32.160 --> 00:45:35.600
Like that makes sense. And like Wall Street is also like totally able to wrap their
542
00:45:35.600 --> 00:45:39.680
heads around eigenlayer. So like eigenlayers in the middle of this like very slow motion
543
00:45:39.680 --> 00:45:43.040
nerds night. And I'm just like kind of fascinated to see what kind of what types of people it brings
544
00:45:43.040 --> 00:45:49.600
into the fold. Yeah, I'm with you on that too. I want one maybe dimension that I would add to
545
00:45:49.600 --> 00:45:55.680
what's driving a lot of the eigenlayer buzz and this flywheel that's kicking in for them is as
546
00:45:55.680 --> 00:46:01.920
much as it is an economic security play where if you're either a causeboast chain or an AVS and
547
00:46:01.920 --> 00:46:09.520
you do not want to pay enormous amount of emissions to convince people to stake your chain.
548
00:46:09.520 --> 00:46:13.200
Like it makes a ton of sense from the that's the demand side of their marketplace.
549
00:46:13.760 --> 00:46:19.200
But the other reason why you might want to launch as an eigenlayer AVS is kind of a growth story
550
00:46:19.200 --> 00:46:23.280
as well. You know in the same way that member a little while ago is like all these chains
551
00:46:23.280 --> 00:46:28.480
were moving to Ethereum roll ups because the idea was like hey let me plug into this massive
552
00:46:28.480 --> 00:46:34.000
ecosystem in it. I think that was pretty good play for a lot of those a lot of those you know L ones
553
00:46:34.000 --> 00:46:39.360
that were kind of you know wasting away into obscurity. But now I get to plug into this ecosystem.
554
00:46:39.360 --> 00:46:44.160
I get to put myself in this narrative. There's a bunch of ETH that wants to move up into roll ups
555
00:46:44.160 --> 00:46:48.000
like it was really good for a bunch of those chains. And I think there are going to be a lot of
556
00:46:48.000 --> 00:46:52.160
chains like that is another element to the eigenlayer thing that people are sort of missing which is like
557
00:46:52.160 --> 00:46:58.400
I could be this weird you know AVS that does this middleware thing that no one really cares about
558
00:46:58.400 --> 00:47:05.200
or I can be the next eigenlayer chain baby and I can be a part of this point you know take a bunch of
559
00:47:05.200 --> 00:47:11.360
the the you know there's eight billion dollars of capital ETH capital that wants to find its way
560
00:47:11.360 --> 00:47:17.280
into these chains. So I think it's a growth story as well as a security story. Interesting growth
561
00:47:17.280 --> 00:47:23.840
story right that sort of yeah. I think that's the meta that that a lot of these AVSs are that
562
00:47:23.840 --> 00:47:29.280
these AVSs are playing. It's like I could either launch this weird obscure middleware thing that
563
00:47:29.280 --> 00:47:34.560
no one's going to care about or I can catapult myself into this narrative spotlight and seven billion
564
00:47:34.560 --> 00:47:40.080
dollars worth of each ETH which is looking for a home in various AVSs of which I could write one.
565
00:47:40.800 --> 00:47:45.920
Right yeah yeah well that's kind of like the bullish element of like shared security is that it
566
00:47:45.920 --> 00:47:51.440
actually costs very little to get a lot of security right yeah and there's like economies of scale
567
00:47:51.440 --> 00:47:57.520
here the more AVSs that are providing like some minor amount of yield to the entire system more like
568
00:47:57.520 --> 00:48:02.640
a leveraged amount of capital comes into that because of how free that yield is. It's free yield
569
00:48:02.640 --> 00:48:08.320
free yield baby. It is free. Yeah you're just opting in to this incremental additional yield
570
00:48:08.320 --> 00:48:13.040
which is feels like a win-win. Right yeah and so it's what you're saying is like there's like a
571
00:48:13.040 --> 00:48:17.680
just a lot of pent up potential energy here between like the massive amount of ETH that's in
572
00:48:17.680 --> 00:48:22.560
eigenlayer that has nowhere to go except for these LRT projects who are also filling to the brim
573
00:48:22.560 --> 00:48:29.040
with ETH right now and then like all these AVSs are like there's no supply side there's demand for
574
00:48:29.040 --> 00:48:35.680
me and there's like zero AVSs and there's about to be like eight and then maybe in a year they'll
575
00:48:35.680 --> 00:48:40.640
be like 16 or something and so like you're saying like well as an AVS is going to be so easy to
576
00:48:40.640 --> 00:48:46.560
attract a ton of capital is that what you're saying? Attractive ton of capital to you know the hope
577
00:48:46.560 --> 00:48:52.560
is that some of those people end up being they're trying to acquire some of the the users from the
578
00:48:52.560 --> 00:48:56.880
people who have this ETH and they're also trying to put themselves in this kind of sexy spotlight
579
00:48:56.880 --> 00:49:00.800
and narrative you know I think that's I think that's all a big part of it but there's also there
580
00:49:00.800 --> 00:49:06.000
there's a very real reason why this exists and it's super cool and I the way that I view the LRT's
581
00:49:06.000 --> 00:49:12.880
and even projects like ethos is there there are a lot of it's very difficult right now for projects
582
00:49:12.880 --> 00:49:19.040
to actually connect with eigenlayered directly so what the LRT's basically are are allowing it's
583
00:49:19.040 --> 00:49:26.320
like adding modularity and flexibility in terms of how these AVSs end up procuring that security
584
00:49:26.320 --> 00:49:31.920
capital and spend so but like we're talking about a lot of high-minded stuff here David let me
585
00:49:31.920 --> 00:49:36.160
take us out of the weeds for a second I want to get your I want to get your take on can I can I
586
00:49:36.160 --> 00:49:40.400
actually share something Josh I'm going to share my screen are you ready for me to share my screen
587
00:49:42.320 --> 00:49:44.240
Josh is the operator bankless nation
588
00:49:47.520 --> 00:49:53.120
all right all right I'm going to throw my screen a second here we go share screen
589
00:49:53.600 --> 00:50:05.600
here we go ready for this mic ready uh uglabs just acquired proof wow oh no I did not see that
590
00:50:05.600 --> 00:50:11.680
coming wow yeah this is the two comments can you give us the background of that I'm actually not
591
00:50:11.680 --> 00:50:16.240
as familiar with that's Kevin roses that's Kevin roses it's the moon birds thing the proof
592
00:50:16.240 --> 00:50:24.240
collective uh and so yeah apparently uglabs just acquired all of them so I guess yeah the moon
593
00:50:24.240 --> 00:50:29.760
birds collection it's now part of uglabs who owns board apes mutant apes crypto punks
594
00:50:31.920 --> 00:50:38.080
me bits all of these all right cool do you think do you think without looking or cheating do you
595
00:50:38.080 --> 00:50:43.760
think moon birds goes up or down the price of moon birds birds go up or down definitely up definitely
596
00:50:44.080 --> 00:50:49.360
a a it's a bull market b uh there's you can't go down anymore
597
00:50:53.680 --> 00:50:59.280
yeah god you're right you're right um all right where are you going to be up and let's see
598
00:50:59.280 --> 00:51:03.600
I'm going to keep going with that no I don't know where do you want to go I want to just get your
599
00:51:03.600 --> 00:51:08.720
thought on it's it's such a cliche question but just like where are we in this cycle here your
600
00:51:08.800 --> 00:51:13.280
sort of mental framework for it like are you you know do you wake up a lot of mornings feeling
601
00:51:13.280 --> 00:51:18.800
particularly euphoric and bold up and excited um like where do you you know it's maybe especially
602
00:51:18.800 --> 00:51:22.080
if you like haven't been in the space for a particularly long time and this is your first time
603
00:51:22.080 --> 00:51:26.640
going through one of these cycles you're starting to get jazzed up breast bitcoins above 50k again
604
00:51:26.640 --> 00:51:32.480
like how are you how are you feeling I think we are further along in this bull market than what the
605
00:51:32.480 --> 00:51:41.840
typical newer entrants will give credit for uh I think I was reflecting upon like my experience
606
00:51:41.840 --> 00:51:48.480
last bull market and like last bull market like I thought I came in with a reference look it started
607
00:51:48.480 --> 00:51:56.080
in like January of 2021 when ether like pumped and hit all new all-time highs or it hit like 11,000
608
00:51:56.160 --> 00:52:03.280
right or 1100 um after being at 100 for like a year you 100 to 300 so it did like a three to four
609
00:52:03.280 --> 00:52:08.480
X um like all my Ethereum friends were like over the moon like we're fine like we're finally getting
610
00:52:08.480 --> 00:52:13.280
out from out into the shadows of Bitcoiners uh and then like and then NFT media hadn't actually
611
00:52:13.280 --> 00:52:18.960
started yet but it started very quickly after that um and that's it that bull market I was like okay
612
00:52:18.960 --> 00:52:23.920
that's when the bull market started it was like January February of 2021 uh so we got like a good
613
00:52:23.920 --> 00:52:30.160
like 18 months two years left in this baby uh when we actually only had like 10 months because like
614
00:52:30.160 --> 00:52:35.680
I wasn't accounting for you know DeFi summer when like ETH price action stayed below 300
615
00:52:36.480 --> 00:52:40.560
like people were making a ton of life changing wealth but you wouldn't have really called it a
616
00:52:40.560 --> 00:52:45.680
bull market like there was still during DeFi summer there was like is this and this isn't
617
00:52:45.680 --> 00:52:50.560
product market fit like this is not what people people don't want to gamble on food tokens like
618
00:52:50.560 --> 00:52:54.960
this isn't mainstream this isn't causing Bitcoin to go up this isn't causing ETH price to go up
619
00:52:54.960 --> 00:53:01.360
this is just a bunch of like long tail like risk on assets to turn into like yield farms that's not
620
00:53:01.360 --> 00:53:06.960
a bull market and so I never accounted for uh I never added that onto my bull market time uh but
621
00:53:06.960 --> 00:53:10.400
that was a mistake because it totally was the bull market like people were making a ton of money
622
00:53:10.400 --> 00:53:16.000
and I learned this from Chris Bernisky is like it's just like it really depends on how much net paper
623
00:53:16.000 --> 00:53:20.720
gains the entire industry has and that will determine whether the bull market ends or not
624
00:53:21.360 --> 00:53:25.680
and so like paper gains have started people's like paper people like you're we're just
625
00:53:25.680 --> 00:53:30.400
like to have like people are receiving billion dollar airdrops not selling them uh like
626
00:53:30.400 --> 00:53:37.120
soul bros are like massively up haven't sold definitely probably uh like you know NFTs are
627
00:53:37.120 --> 00:53:41.680
arising like everyone's sitting on like a good healthy stack of paper gains right now
628
00:53:41.680 --> 00:53:45.440
and no one's taking anything off the table because like retail's not in yet and then retail's
629
00:53:45.440 --> 00:53:49.600
gonna come in and then like we're gonna our paper gains are gonna be massive and that's really
630
00:53:49.600 --> 00:53:55.040
when the clock starts ticking but like I'm saying we're like we're like approaching halfway through
631
00:53:55.040 --> 00:54:00.400
the bull market which I think is a lot further along than most people think yeah I was gonna say
632
00:54:00.880 --> 00:54:05.200
uh about probably time wise about yeah halfway through I was gonna say fourth inning but
633
00:54:05.840 --> 00:54:09.760
I think fourth inning is almost halfway through yeah because you know the real
634
00:54:09.760 --> 00:54:14.560
fourth you know we got the fourth we're in the middle of the fourth yeah you know it's just
635
00:54:14.560 --> 00:54:20.000
funny because I my experience was exactly yours I have this really vivid memory of because
636
00:54:20.000 --> 00:54:23.920
COVID happened that was the big thing that happened last time right so it actually at the end of
637
00:54:23.920 --> 00:54:30.880
20 if you go back and look at the price action of 2019 you'd be it looks good it looks only up only
638
00:54:30.880 --> 00:54:37.040
only but oh yeah not how it felt there's not how it felt not until the very end yeah not until
639
00:54:37.040 --> 00:54:42.240
very end and but then COVID happened and you're like oh my god is this industry I'd Bitcoin went
640
00:54:42.240 --> 00:54:46.160
down to 4,000 and then it started to creep up but I remember I didn't even really start paying
641
00:54:46.160 --> 00:54:50.960
attention to it until I went it until was at like 13 or 14 it was like whoa I have not seen Bitcoin at
642
00:54:50.960 --> 00:54:58.960
14 in a long time right and then I sort of started to watch it heat up and go and go and I really
643
00:54:58.960 --> 00:55:04.240
only was like yes it is the bull market after it cleared all time highs so that's exactly my
644
00:55:04.240 --> 00:55:08.720
framework now because I mean it was interesting like coin based earnings came out yesterday and we
645
00:55:08.720 --> 00:55:14.320
don't need to go into the weeds of it but you saw the very beginnings of retail was back more
646
00:55:14.320 --> 00:55:19.280
than institutional the reach of volume was up more than the institutional it really it's not
647
00:55:19.280 --> 00:55:23.760
even going to show up in their numbers it's weird as coin based a where is coin based on the the
648
00:55:23.760 --> 00:55:30.560
app store and that is started to jump up and yeah it's like we're starting to see the very early
649
00:55:30.560 --> 00:55:34.320
signs but you know it's something that's kind of I mean I'd love to get your perspective on this
650
00:55:34.560 --> 00:55:39.840
your bankless venture seat but one thing that hasn't really started to happen yet is like funds are
651
00:55:39.840 --> 00:55:45.680
raising a punch I've heard it's actually still kind of tough sliding out there for the fund raising
652
00:55:45.680 --> 00:55:52.160
environment which is surprising yeah what do you what do you is that accurate inaccurate because
653
00:55:52.160 --> 00:55:57.200
that's another that's another big marker of when these funds start to get raised funds are deploying
654
00:55:57.200 --> 00:56:05.120
bigly it's valuations of startups have crept up a pretty meaningful amount but nothing over the top
655
00:56:05.120 --> 00:56:12.080
nothing like sloshy yeah I haven't heard of funds raising but I'm also just not tapped into that
656
00:56:12.080 --> 00:56:16.240
that world because like we're done raising so we're not we're not doing that we were like one of
657
00:56:16.240 --> 00:56:23.920
the only funds to raise in what year was that 2022 2023 you guys crushed it yeah like we
658
00:56:23.920 --> 00:56:29.520
were the only ones who could really like get away with it I haven't heard of funds raising
659
00:56:30.960 --> 00:56:35.440
so no but I wouldn't be the one because like I'm not paying attention to funds like I'm paying
660
00:56:35.440 --> 00:56:41.440
to portfolio companies and funds are definitely deploying right now like cash and being spit out
661
00:56:41.440 --> 00:56:45.280
and there's a lot of startup interest there's a lot of like people who are actually building really
662
00:56:45.280 --> 00:56:50.160
cool shit really novel shit yeah and so I would definitely call it a pretty like exciting market
663
00:56:50.160 --> 00:56:56.160
nothing is too hot it's definitely a founders market not a VCs market the pendulum is shifted to
664
00:56:56.160 --> 00:57:02.320
the founder now whereas like maybe a year ago it was definitely still on the VCs side of things
665
00:57:03.920 --> 00:57:09.040
yeah that's that's kind of my take so you don't think the the private markets and public like
666
00:57:09.040 --> 00:57:12.880
public market just being liquid tokens I guess in crypto you think they're still walking
667
00:57:12.880 --> 00:57:19.120
relatively similarly or as one crept up in front of the other I think so I've heard other people
668
00:57:19.120 --> 00:57:23.040
I think I've heard Chris Bernisky say that like private markets are starting to get like kind of crazy
669
00:57:23.040 --> 00:57:28.320
and I've I've seen I know I see what he's talking about but I don't wouldn't call it crazy
670
00:57:28.320 --> 00:57:35.280
Christmas definitely knows more than me but like everything seems okay to me like I'm the
671
00:57:35.280 --> 00:57:42.320
bull of bankless ventures runs the the breaks and bends like the rationalist but like at some point
672
00:57:42.480 --> 00:57:48.720
I'm just like guys like these like 50 to 80 million dollar seed rounds are have become the norm
673
00:57:49.360 --> 00:57:53.840
like that is like and they're it's a hot market and this is like and they're like oh that's
674
00:57:53.840 --> 00:57:59.280
really expensive and like yeah so was all the other ones like this is just what it is yeah
675
00:58:00.480 --> 00:58:06.640
there I've heard you know one way of thinking about it is your your price taker not to make like
676
00:58:06.640 --> 00:58:11.520
you just got to find the best prices that exist out into the market will tell you what the
677
00:58:11.520 --> 00:58:17.680
valuation is and you just got to decide whether or not you want to take it but you guys raised
678
00:58:17.680 --> 00:58:21.920
in a really opportune time because it's gonna become like we've talked about this before but
679
00:58:21.920 --> 00:58:27.760
there's probably a window where especially for like most people your first and even second cycle
680
00:58:27.760 --> 00:58:32.880
you don't make any money because you wait until the new all time high you have way less time
681
00:58:32.880 --> 00:58:37.840
than you think you know you go small in the beginning but then the euphoria kicks in and you invest
682
00:58:37.840 --> 00:58:42.960
most of your money at the top where you shouldn't and there probably is some period of time to
683
00:58:42.960 --> 00:58:51.120
just sit on your hands I don't know what I think FTX actually painted an exemplar model of how
684
00:58:51.120 --> 00:58:56.640
everyone fails in a bull market which is they started off conservative they started doing like
685
00:58:56.640 --> 00:59:02.400
arbitrage like free arbitrage trades between Bitcoin and stable coins and then over the bull market
686
00:59:02.400 --> 00:59:06.400
they started to become more and more risk on with their trading strategies to the point where they
687
00:59:06.400 --> 00:59:11.040
ended where they were like how can we take the most amount of leverage three hours capital also
688
00:59:11.040 --> 00:59:17.440
did this they were also like a very safe GBTC premium trade and like even before that I can
689
00:59:17.440 --> 00:59:21.040
remember what the trade was but it's even safer there's like like risk off trading during the
690
00:59:21.040 --> 00:59:26.720
bear market and then as the bull market continued it was like okay we we are down to take price
691
00:59:26.720 --> 00:59:31.520
exposure rather than just like time it like settlement risk right we'll actually take we'll take
692
00:59:31.520 --> 00:59:35.280
upside now and then it was like okay we'll take leverage now oh we'll take even more leverage now
693
00:59:35.280 --> 00:59:38.720
and so like they were every everyone who failed was taking leverage at the top
694
00:59:39.280 --> 00:59:44.720
whereas like you should be taking leverage at the bottom and then clear it out before the top
695
00:59:44.720 --> 00:59:48.160
and then sell at the top that's what everyone ought to be doing but everyone does the opposite
696
00:59:48.160 --> 00:59:52.800
everyone is going more and more exposure as the markets go up in price I know I mean the other
697
00:59:52.800 --> 00:59:57.760
thing too a couple other dynamics about this is there were a lot of funds last cycle good funds that
698
00:59:57.760 --> 01:00:05.520
are still around that went from 10 million dollars in AUM to a billion dollars in AUM and your
699
01:00:05.520 --> 01:00:12.080
universe of investible assets or opportunities is so much smaller when you have that size and
700
01:00:12.080 --> 01:00:17.440
yeah I watched this interview that the three arrows guys gave they their defense on GBTC was
701
01:00:17.440 --> 01:00:20.960
that oh it was a really good trade but you know we couldn't account for other people piling in
702
01:00:20.960 --> 01:00:25.200
it's like yeah you actually could account for that and you're supposed to you're supposed to
703
01:00:25.200 --> 01:00:30.960
account for that's why you're a professional money manager um you you know and the GBTC
704
01:00:30.960 --> 01:00:36.640
thing was just such a hilarious concentric hallucination because those close and funds always
705
01:00:36.640 --> 01:00:41.680
trade at discount to nav it should have been really obvious to this industry that I just did an
706
01:00:41.680 --> 01:00:47.520
interview the guy who it was a huge part of the eth part of that trade and dude it was just I
707
01:00:47.520 --> 01:00:51.760
mean it's literally as simple as have you heard that quote there's nothing so damaging to your
708
01:00:51.760 --> 01:00:55.840
health is hearing that your neighbor made money it's like that's what it is it's just a couple
709
01:00:55.840 --> 01:01:02.320
people made 15 or 16 x they're they're what they put in and everyone just foam out into that trade
710
01:01:02.320 --> 01:01:07.680
so I'm sure the same thing is gonna happen here at this time I just I just don't know what it is
711
01:01:08.400 --> 01:01:12.640
everyone thinks it's gonna be restaking which makes me think it's not gonna be restaking because
712
01:01:12.640 --> 01:01:17.440
everyone literally thinks that it's gonna be but I have I have no idea but I think there's
713
01:01:17.440 --> 01:01:22.640
like a lot of just like ancient wisdom that people in Wall Street know that like people in crypto
714
01:01:22.640 --> 01:01:28.240
definitely don't know uh and just buy in the fact that like sometimes we're in a bubble and
715
01:01:28.240 --> 01:01:33.440
so are they and our bubbles don't mix um but it's not gonna be me to bring that over here because
716
01:01:33.440 --> 01:01:37.680
I don't know it no I don't know either actually you know it's funny you I don't feel like
717
01:01:37.680 --> 01:01:43.760
of all people you do know it the most because you interview all the macro people so a golden rule
718
01:01:43.840 --> 01:01:50.800
of this that I found interviewing macro people is that you know how when you hear old macro people
719
01:01:50.800 --> 01:01:55.040
talk about crypto and you're just like oh my god that's the most cringe take ever right as you do
720
01:01:55.040 --> 01:01:59.840
not know what you're talking about it goes the other way too and when you hear crypto people talk
721
01:01:59.840 --> 01:02:06.160
about macro you're like oh god I'm not saying that I know enough to make great predictions about
722
01:02:06.160 --> 01:02:10.960
macro I definitely don't but I've done enough interviews where I can understand who knows what they're
723
01:02:10.960 --> 01:02:17.280
talking about and who doesn't and I mean one thing that should have been extremely obvious to
724
01:02:17.280 --> 01:02:22.080
our industry that wasn't at the time is when they started raising rates we all should have gotten
725
01:02:22.080 --> 01:02:26.880
extremely concerned and I was not concerned I had no frame of reference for this I remember a
726
01:02:26.880 --> 01:02:32.720
Jim Bianco tweet saying like the times have changed this is I think maybe he used a term like paradigm
727
01:02:32.720 --> 01:02:38.080
shift and I remember this tweet because it's burned into my brain I'm like uh Jim Bianco what do you
728
01:02:38.080 --> 01:02:44.720
mean by that I I don't get it like why why is the a new phase of markets I don't understand
729
01:02:44.720 --> 01:02:51.840
and then like 10 months later I very much understood exactly what he meant and so did my portfolio
730
01:02:51.840 --> 01:02:56.240
like oh that's what you mean by that the fastest rate hike in history but this is also like why
731
01:02:56.240 --> 01:03:00.480
like the the end of last bull market was also just like so weird and maybe it wasn't
732
01:03:01.120 --> 01:03:04.640
maybe it ended just the same way it always going to end because everyone was sitting on the
733
01:03:04.640 --> 01:03:08.800
mountain of paper games that I was talking about but also we had the fastest interest rate hike
734
01:03:08.800 --> 01:03:14.240
uh the that we've had in most market parties and more part uh participants living memory
735
01:03:14.880 --> 01:03:20.480
yeah it's I feel like it's always going to be something I I sort of am in the camp that I'm in
736
01:03:20.480 --> 01:03:25.680
the Chris camp of everything that goes up must come down crypto goes up so fast that it must come
737
01:03:25.680 --> 01:03:31.040
down although I do think that there's good reason to believe that it's not different this time but
738
01:03:31.040 --> 01:03:36.080
here's here's a trend that's been happening uh since for for basically as long as crypto as an
739
01:03:36.080 --> 01:03:44.800
existence every bull cycle becomes slightly more muted like the peak to trough returns of say bitcoin
740
01:03:44.800 --> 01:03:50.880
as you go along has gone lower and lower and the volatility of bitcoin and if you're in the assets go
741
01:03:50.880 --> 01:03:56.960
lower and lower and the reason for that is really just a lot of large numbers things you know if bitcoin
742
01:03:56.960 --> 01:04:01.840
peak to trough returned what it did in the 2011 cycle it'd be the most valuable asset on earth 10 times
743
01:04:01.840 --> 01:04:08.240
over so that just can't happen but uh but that's probably good and then the other thing is these ETFs
744
01:04:08.240 --> 01:04:13.680
might have not changed the game but they might have exacerbated that existing trend because
745
01:04:14.480 --> 01:04:21.120
think about who what was driving the price of bitcoin in the 2020 to 2021 cycle it was retail
746
01:04:21.760 --> 01:04:26.560
following their stimmies into bitcoin or it was smart money that was front running that retail
747
01:04:27.120 --> 01:04:33.760
and so the next the incremental dollar moving into bitcoin was that hot money retail kind of just
748
01:04:33.760 --> 01:04:40.160
chasing this trend but now with the bitcoin ETFs and soon ETFs which I think everyone is
749
01:04:40.160 --> 01:04:46.800
generally sleeping on is the next incremental dollar is not a hot money retail dollar it is a
750
01:04:46.800 --> 01:04:54.000
slow passive dollar that is moving into bitcoin now and the people that trade the bitcoin ETFs
751
01:04:54.000 --> 01:04:58.400
aren't like you and me they don't see oh bitcoin go up I should buy by more they say oh bitcoin's
752
01:04:58.400 --> 01:05:02.720
up 10% this week it's probably going to mean reverb I'm going to sell and that behavior over time
753
01:05:03.440 --> 01:05:09.920
is just going to level out the the price appreciation of of bitcoin so and I think it's going to
754
01:05:09.920 --> 01:05:14.320
happen with eth and that is the way that it should ultimately end up happening I think that's a good
755
01:05:14.720 --> 01:05:23.040
thing but I learned this from I can't remember how how press maybe and maybe I need to get a second
756
01:05:23.040 --> 01:05:28.080
opinion on this but like his big idea was that as soon as we have like sustainable dependable
757
01:05:28.080 --> 01:05:32.800
flows you get less volatility I think that's just like a true of any financial asset if you have
758
01:05:32.800 --> 01:05:38.240
sustainable flows like volatility goes down which would be great for like the PR and optics if
759
01:05:38.240 --> 01:05:43.600
bitcoin can stop and ether stopping so volatile that that'll be just that's the maturing market
760
01:05:43.600 --> 01:05:49.840
you said that these markets oh dampen over time love large numbers totally true like you can see
761
01:05:49.840 --> 01:05:56.400
that in the bitcoin and the eth volatility but also like looking at the market bull markets as like
762
01:05:56.400 --> 01:06:02.480
invent events in crypto they can still be just like equally frothy as the last one because people will
763
01:06:02.480 --> 01:06:08.240
always go down the long tail and like there's no cap on how far down the long tail you can get like
764
01:06:08.320 --> 01:06:14.880
we were trading like jpegs of text at one point when they one of them like the floor got to 25
765
01:06:14.880 --> 01:06:20.160
eth like that was some extreme frothy shit and like sometimes like I think it's kind of a little
766
01:06:20.160 --> 01:06:26.400
bit lost to history but the iCO waterfall of just like the shitcoin waterfall that was in the
767
01:06:26.400 --> 01:06:33.440
2017 like that was an insane time where like it was completely disconnected from reality and it's
768
01:06:33.440 --> 01:06:38.400
kind of hard to express is it's even hard to remember how insane it was I think the air for
769
01:06:38.400 --> 01:06:41.680
he's had a tweet where he was talking about like yeah most people are just under indexing about
770
01:06:41.680 --> 01:06:47.280
how insane the 2017 iCO mania was because it's just like lost to memory like it's it's like the
771
01:06:47.280 --> 01:06:51.520
memories are smoothed out you can't really remember it's hard to compare to the 2021 bull market
772
01:06:52.640 --> 01:06:59.360
but also I think like with bitcoin and ether are massively large numbers those are just a hydraulic
773
01:06:59.360 --> 01:07:04.720
pumps down on the long tail and can make the long tail equally frothy no matter what kind of bull market
774
01:07:04.720 --> 01:07:11.920
it is uh a hundred percent those those arguments never held that much water with me you hear people
775
01:07:11.920 --> 01:07:17.040
talk about you know we're never going to inject seven trillion dollars into the market again that was
776
01:07:17.040 --> 01:07:24.800
as crazy as it's ever going to get I think 2017 was crazier than 2020 in 2021 I I can't I without
777
01:07:24.800 --> 01:07:30.880
confidence I think that's true it felt crazier it was I remember looking at the price I mean the
778
01:07:30.880 --> 01:07:35.600
that was our first bull market though we had no frame I know but I think that it was just smaller
779
01:07:35.600 --> 01:07:41.200
in the prices dude I just remember these things would go up like you know 60 70% a day I I guess
780
01:07:41.200 --> 01:07:45.040
maybe if I missed the whole NFT thing last time which is maybe why I'm doubling down on it
781
01:07:48.080 --> 01:07:53.520
but yeah I just I don't know equally crazy and there's going to be something equally crazy next time
782
01:07:53.520 --> 01:07:59.040
but yeah the long tail of cryptos is interesting as it's ever been I think and it's as dispersed as
783
01:07:59.040 --> 01:08:03.600
it's ever been I can't keep up with all the different you know it's it's tough to keep up with
784
01:08:03.600 --> 01:08:09.600
everything that's going on but David what are your thoughts on the the ETH ETF in general because
785
01:08:09.600 --> 01:08:14.000
I've been see there's a there's an argument on Twitter that it's not gonna be as big of a deal
786
01:08:15.200 --> 01:08:21.040
the people are saying that yeah yeah it's not as attractive to an institutional audience as as a
787
01:08:21.040 --> 01:08:28.720
Bitcoin ETF is what do you think so I asked Sandy from Franklin Templeton about like my my
788
01:08:28.720 --> 01:08:34.320
perspective on Ether is that like it's a more attractive asset for Wall Street surprise the
789
01:08:34.320 --> 01:08:39.120
Bankless guy thinks that Ether is a more attractive asset just because it's like a tech platform
790
01:08:39.120 --> 01:08:44.480
it's like a platform technology play and that just resonates with them like Bitcoin Bitcoin is digital
791
01:08:44.480 --> 01:08:51.120
gold okay great but Ethereum is tech with like apps and other chains built on top of it and just
792
01:08:51.120 --> 01:08:57.280
as a form factor it just is more understandable it's got like you can do DCF analysis on on ETH
793
01:08:57.280 --> 01:09:00.880
and I know like you want to throw it for your flag about how do the value networks with a DCF
794
01:09:00.880 --> 01:09:05.360
analysis but the point is you can and they will accept it because that is what they understand I
795
01:09:05.360 --> 01:09:09.520
think you're I think you're probably right about that David yeah until like it doesn't it maybe
796
01:09:09.520 --> 01:09:14.240
I'm only like right a little bit on the fact that like okay Wall Street likes it a little bit more
797
01:09:14.240 --> 01:09:20.240
because of the tech play the DCF play but also ETH is one third of the size of Bitcoin so liking it
798
01:09:20.240 --> 01:09:25.280
a little bit more for that reason like you multiply that by three because just like it's and then also
799
01:09:25.280 --> 01:09:30.160
this is a you know from Vance Benzer's Twitter it's like there's just much less float on Ether on
800
01:09:30.160 --> 01:09:35.200
them on the markets because it's in layer two it's in eigen layer right it's like it's in compound
801
01:09:35.200 --> 01:09:42.320
it's in Ave and so like a dollar means a lot more to the Ether price than does for the Bitcoin price
802
01:09:43.600 --> 01:09:49.280
I I think that's going to be the ultimate driving thing people the crypto natives will debate
803
01:09:49.280 --> 01:09:54.160
what is ETH story is it a money or a tech platform is it yield there is it ultra sound money
804
01:09:54.160 --> 01:09:59.040
you know what traf i think they don't give a shit yeah they don't care they just need a story
805
01:09:59.040 --> 01:10:05.760
it's like Bitcoin it's the next Bitcoin it's smaller given now I and and I think another another thing
806
01:10:05.760 --> 01:10:10.560
that I don't believe that the big winners have always believed is it's only Bitcoin it's only central
807
01:10:10.560 --> 01:10:15.760
banks will only buy Bitcoin and that's the safest one I've just never bought into that idea if
808
01:10:15.760 --> 01:10:22.080
anything I think the most the the most realistic outcome is a basket they they love basket they
809
01:10:22.080 --> 01:10:27.200
love baskets like they're already building baskets with bonds equities and Bitcoin in there they're
810
01:10:27.200 --> 01:10:32.960
already building the baskets there you go I that's and so there'll be a crypto basket and how many
811
01:10:32.960 --> 01:10:37.520
times have you heard David from maybe someone who is on the older side who I don't really understand
812
01:10:37.520 --> 01:10:42.800
this I just want to give me broad exposure like I just want exposure you know they don't so I just
813
01:10:42.800 --> 01:10:48.240
I I've never bought into that idea that it's only going to be Bitcoin I think if anything I think
814
01:10:48.240 --> 01:10:55.440
if anything right now the Bitcoin ETF has surprised people with the flows yes and even the most
815
01:10:55.440 --> 01:11:01.520
bolder people or more yeah and I don't know if we're in some kind of near p if you if you do a run
816
01:11:01.520 --> 01:11:07.680
rate of 250 trading days 500 million dollars in flows a day you wind up with a hundred billion and
817
01:11:07.680 --> 01:11:12.160
I think that's that just sounds wrong to me that sounds too high but it's looking like it's going
818
01:11:12.160 --> 01:11:16.160
to be a phenomenal success for Bitcoin right people are going to say ETH is going to do something
819
01:11:16.160 --> 01:11:23.600
similar to that and Vance pointed this out on on bell curve but Bitcoin Bitcoin bottomed the
820
01:11:23.600 --> 01:11:29.440
ETH BTC ratio bottomed like the day of the ETFs and it's probably not to make a prediction but
821
01:11:29.440 --> 01:11:34.160
it's probably if it has on bottom it's probably it's probably a good bet probably that's going to
822
01:11:34.160 --> 01:11:42.240
yeah yeah so that's and also this is the time Solana really messed everyone up you and I've
823
01:11:42.240 --> 01:11:48.160
talked about this before the typical thing that happens during this point of the cycle is everything
824
01:11:48.160 --> 01:11:52.720
sells off Bitcoin sells off the least ETH is the second least and then everything else is this
825
01:11:52.720 --> 01:11:57.600
kind of bucket and then what ends up happening is that's when Bitcoin dominance peaks then Bitcoin
826
01:11:57.600 --> 01:12:03.440
runs first and then everything else follows and people move out along the risk spectrum Solana
827
01:12:03.440 --> 01:12:08.800
just messed everyone up because it was so there was that idiosyncratic FTX event and so it got
828
01:12:08.800 --> 01:12:13.920
drastically underpriced then it got overpriced but this is just really typical stuff for this part
829
01:12:13.920 --> 01:12:20.160
of the cycle Bitcoin is running first he's just going to run again soon so that's that's how I
830
01:12:20.160 --> 01:12:25.440
feel about it and the people say it's the ETF narrative but it's probably just what was always
831
01:12:25.440 --> 01:12:29.920
going to happen obviously yeah that's probably right that's probably right yeah there's a lot
832
01:12:29.920 --> 01:12:36.960
of things like that like the the whole interest rates were hiking faster than all time but the
833
01:12:36.960 --> 01:12:41.360
bull market was ending like it was the time we were we were trading techs JPEGs like we're time now
834
01:12:42.400 --> 01:12:46.800
yeah like how much longer do you think we would have gone if even if the interest rate thing hadn't
835
01:12:47.280 --> 01:12:52.320
it couldn't it couldn't have been that much longer I agree what goes up it must eventually come down
836
01:12:52.320 --> 01:12:58.080
so yeah all right man should we call it here we can call it yeah this was a lot of fun buddy I like
837
01:12:58.080 --> 01:13:07.600
these unscripted things yeah raw unvarnished David I don't think I think Ryan's the more like
838
01:13:07.600 --> 01:13:12.560
varnish one I'm always kind of like more unscripted and shooting from the hip but maybe that's my
839
01:13:12.560 --> 01:13:18.400
take that is in it in the best way in the best way all right man this is great thanks so much
840
01:13:18.400 --> 01:13:24.000
uh what's your twitter handle if people want to follow you uh I am Mike ipolito underscore
841
01:13:24.000 --> 01:13:27.360
so you can follow me there we'll put those in the show notes thanks Mike I really appreciate
842
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