AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | The Godfather of AgBull Tommy Grisafi

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The markets are all over the place today.
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I'm gonna be honest with you.
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It's noon central time as we record this.
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I'm gonna chat with the Ag Bull crew quickly to make sure we've got all the latest, at least at this particular moment.
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And then I've got a long distance dedication that goes out to Ted in Central Iowa.
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Stick around for that.
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Corn, cattle, outside markets.
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We'll laugh, we'll cry, we'll sing.
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Let's go lightning round on your Friday.
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From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson for Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
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Lots going on today.
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And in addition to some some pretty exciting market volatility, including corn hanging on above five bucks, at least for now.
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Like it's almost like I want to get the show made while it while we can still talk about five dollar corn.
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Hard to know where it's gonna go.
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We're off session highs in the corn market today, but okay, get this.
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I've got the I got the Jeep in the shop for a new pair of sneakers.
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And so I'm I'm without that.
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The wife's gone shopping, she's out for the day.
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I'll see her probably around supper time.
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My water heater is out.
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So I'm waiting on a call from my plumber.
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If the phone rings, I'm gonna grab it.
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I'm sorry, I love you, but I gotta take that call because we're we're without hot water for like a day now.
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And it's it's just it's hard to get by.
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You know, I'm boiling water, washing dishes in the sink.
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It's crazy stuff.
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And oh, by the way, there's all sorts of stuff happening in in the grains, in the cattles, in the outside markets, as I mentioned before.
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We're gonna run them all down pretty quick.
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I do have my egg timer, and I think I've demonstrated before, I'm not afraid to use it because we want to keep it short today, to the point.
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Tommy's got a wedding, Jed's flying to Colorado.
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It's absolute insanity what we've got going today, but we want to make sure that we've got you all set up for the weekend and for whatever may come next.
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So that's our goal for today.
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Super glad to have you along, and uh, we won't take up too much of your time on this Friday.
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It's August 21st.
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So let me direct you to AgBull.com.
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Tommy and uh Jed had a markets discussion for the premium side earlier this week, and the subscribers were privy to their thoughts behind that uh magic paywall there.
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Agbol.com is how you can subscribe as well.
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Agbull.com for all the AgBull intel.
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Take your marketing by the horns with Agbol 855737 Farm.
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If you want to go old school and give us a call, we'd love to chat.
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We'd love to chat with you.
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855737 Farm.
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All right, we've got to talk about more daily sales because I thought I saw this and I thought, oh wow, beans are going to the moon.
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Nah, it wasn't the case.
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USDA reported 205,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations.
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Get this 712,000 metric tons of beans to China, 720,000 metric tons of beans to unknown destinations for 2026-27.
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Export demand, heck of a deal at the moment.
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Let's go to the tail of the tape.
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Again, it's noon central time right now, so we don't know how all of this is gonna wind up.
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And if I'm not mistaken, last I knew there were some estimates that could potentially move markets coming out around 1 p.m.
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Central time.
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That's an hour from now.
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We won't speculate.
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Whatever.
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We'll let we'll let that lie where it is.
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The tail of the tape.
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Corn started off on the goodfoot at the open, while soybeans and winter wheat futures dipped slightly.
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Cattle futures were under moderate pressure from the gide up, with fats leading the way downward, and lean hogs gingerly added 15 to 20 cents straight out of the opening gate.
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Rounding toward the early lunch crowd, maybe it was the brunch crowd.
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Jed said he had an early lunch today, and it sounded delicious, by the way.
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Rounding toward the early lunch crowd.
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While Jed was having lunch, uh corn held on to gains, soybean futures were fractionally higher-ish, and wheat futures were working up from session lows, deferred feeder cattle contracts were up five or ten cents, fats were off session lows, lean hogs moved higher with a little more gusto.
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And let's see, why don't we check in where we are?
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I'm gonna use plus five hundred for this, plus five hundred T4 software.
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My crew and I trust plus five hundred T4 software for real-time quotes and a host of dandy features.
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Plus 500 trust plus 500 over to the corns.
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Currently, noon, it's 1215.
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1215 Central Time.
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None of these are settled, none of these are closed.
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There's there's more in these markets, I think, that's going to express itself by the time she all settles out.
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But presently, December corn is up three cents at 5.06.
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Now up three and a quarter at 5.06 and 3 quarters.
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November soybeans up just one cent and one half, although flipping to the plus side of unchanged, which is nice.
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Nice little change from this morning.
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1237 and three quarters on November beans.
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Soybean meal, solidly higher.
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Soybean oil, solidly lower.
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And then on to the winter wheats.
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December Chicago wheat down three and a half at 6.96 even, now down four.
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Here we have the uh December KC wheat down seven and three quarters, seven sixty-eight and three-quarters over to the live stocks.
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October feeder cattle down 10 cents, 322.60.
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If you look out to the November contract, we're up 27 and 12 in your November feeders there, 315.15.
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And the fat cattle, kind of a similar story there.
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Nearby under some some light to moderate pressure, I would call it.
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The October contract down 40 cents, 217.60.
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Oh, and that feb just switched to negative territory there.
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So it looks like we're we're red across the board in the fat cattle.
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And look at those hogs.
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The effort award once again rests with the lean hogs.
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The October contract up 75 cents, 80.97 and one half.
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Let's go out, let's go all the way out to February.
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The February lean hog contract, 70 cents higher on the day, 74.52 and a half.
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All this, beloved viewer, at 12.15, noon 15, Kansas City time.
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Lots uh lots of news to figure into these markets before she's all said and done today.
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But I want to bring in Jed Sidwell.
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Jed, I know you've got to you got to catch a plane, buddy.
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But we're super psyched to have you here.
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You and I were talking on the phone a little bit earlier this morning.
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What's gotten into cattle today?
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There was some news out of uh good old Washington, D.C., just you know, because why wouldn't there be today?
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Yeah, I talked about it some on the morning show, Davis.
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It was kind of a shockwave this morning when President Trump tweeted this.
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Essentially, what it says is that we're going to import 300,000 metric tons of beef grinds into the United States with no quota tariff selling 25% below current markets.
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But Trump seemed to think that would be a good thing for the American rancher and farmer, which was highly perplexing to most of us out there because that moan's maybe just a little hard to piece together right now, but maybe he's got some sort of plan for that.
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And man, it sent just a shockwave into the market this morning.
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Uh live cattle opening up low, feeder cattle low opening up even lower.
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They're about back to unchanged right now, or maybe just a little bit lower, but just a lot, of lot of volume.
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I think speculative community showed up today in the cattle side.
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I mean, just looking at sheer volume, a lot of contracts are traded today, Davis.
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You're headed out to Colorado.
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What's the word on the weather out there?
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Last I knew it was a little dry around Rancho Sidwell.
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Yeah, it has been.
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We've been really, really fortunate, and we've got to thank the good Lord that we've gotten a few rains here recently and kind of given us a bit of moisture to green things up because we've start we're starting to run out of uh irrigation water in some places.
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Doing all right for right now, though, and we're plenty blessed for what we have.
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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Well, it feels like somebody needs to talk to the president.
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If he's if he's given us 90 days to rebuild the cattle herd.
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Last I checked, it it takes about, I don't know, two years, 18 months, what is it, to drop a calf to kind of get it anywhere where you can do anything with it, and then you gotta run it through the feed yard, you gotta fatten them up, make turn it into delicious beef.
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That that takes more than 90 days, last I checked, doesn't it, Jed?
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Yeah, yeah, I think it does.
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Unless we're farming fish or rabbits, you can't turn over anything in 90 days.
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Shoot, that's even slightly longer than a pig's gestation.
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So it doesn't make sense.
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Well, also, what doesn't add up in there is I don't understand why decreasing our market share, decreasing the value of what we generate when interest rates are as high as they are, I don't see the incentive to build back the cow herd, which was his big kind of talking point there.
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That that part still evades me, Davis.
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And maybe we'll get some, you know, enlightened on that here in the future.
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But right now it's just a little bit confusing.
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I'm uh I've been obsessed lately with succession planning and the next generation.
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And despite the fact I'm a I'm a complete hypocrite because I left the farm.
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I'm living in Kansas City, I'm not farming.
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Well, I got wildflowers growing out in the back and some weeds in the yard.
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That's as close as I'm getting to farming.
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My livestock comprises a dog and and some fish in an aquarium.
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You're headed back to Colorado.
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Do you do you foresee yourself maintaining a presence, maintaining a herd of cattle, maybe some sheep, as as you as you grow older?
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Yeah, absolutely.
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Right now we're planning on having a show steer show steer sale here at the end of September, September 29th.
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My brother and I kind of contract some calves from my parents and grandparents and put them together to sell the 4-H exhibitors kind of across the country, and that'll be on Steer Bitter.
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Uh, we're very excited about that one.
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And yeah, I own a handful of cows and just stay plugged in.
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You know, I live in a pretty populated area where I do right now in Joliet.
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We have some stock at the school farm with the school my girlfriend works for, but it's always good to get back and you know get your hands dirty and be around some stock.
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Yeah, you're part of the solution, aren't you?
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I don't know if I'd say that.
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I don't think I ever I don't think I've ever been accused of that, Davis.
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Um, but today I guess I have.
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I'll just say it now.
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Thank you, Jed Sidwell.
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I appreciate your uh your insights into this.
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And hey, travel safely, buddy.
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Jed Sidwell.
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You can catch him mornings first thing.
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You already know if you if you watch Axe Squawk, Jed Sidwell, first thing in the morning to get you set up for your markets.
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My my next guest, I think he's ready.
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I'm looking there.
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Yeah, he's he's nodding.
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I got the thumbs up.
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The uh 17th Sexiest Man, Sir Tommy Gersopi himself, the big kahuna of AGVOL.
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Tommy, you've been you've been busy this week.
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Your face has been all over the place, buddy.
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I'm proud of you.
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How you doing?
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You you got stuff to do this afternoon.
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We've all we've all got stuff to do, but man, never too busy to at least talk about what's happening in the markets.
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You and I have talked of obviously about corn and soybeans and livestock just now with Jed.
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The outside markets have been something to see too.
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I want to focus on corn for just a moment.
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I promised a long distance dedication and a number of years ago, Ted Hamer said if corn, if December corn gets to five bucks, you have to sing I have to sing Barry Manilo on the air.
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I took it as a personal challenge, and and I've I've got it here.
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I'm not gonna sing like you know, live for you, but the the Ag Bull musical band group here, the ragtag bunch of fellas put something together for us to celebrate five dollar corn.
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Let's hear it.
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There you are looking just the same as when I put you in the bin.
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Here's the truck close to getting tangled up in the city little hole.
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To the skill out to selling to the rally.
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I wonder if there'll be any crappy rating from the new call, guys the man from China.
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We made it looks like we made it.
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Do another ha right, Tommy.
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We're having some fun here.
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But uh promise challenge accepted, promise kept this long distance dedication out to Ted Hamer.
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Um, and I almost kind of feel like I needed to get that in here.
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D scorn right now, again, not settled, gang.
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Off session highs for the day here.
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We got news coming out about the the big crop tour and everything this afternoon.
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I don't know if if we want to speculate on what those numbers look like all told.
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But Tommy, uh, how do you like our chances to hold on to five into the open on Monday?
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Well, we traded through five last night and we traded down five cents.
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And one thing I was telling young Jed this morning was a good bull market will give you a chance to buy it.
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So there's we close sometimes on the highs and then we open lower.
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That's farmer hedging selling.
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That this is different, and the reason I think this is different, not only from the stance that ProFarmer was extremely consistent that the yields were down, Iowa put up some decent numbers and big shout out to Minnesota.
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Minnesota held its own, but the states, I think last year Kansas had a record.
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Well, Kansas is going to have a disaster this year, and then you take states like Colorado or Michigan or Pennsylvania.
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There's problems all over.
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If if my memory strikes me correct, and this is a long time ago, six hours.
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I think I saw massive, massive flooding in Ohio.
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Did anyone see those tweets or anything?
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Some Route 70 in Ohio closed today due to the flooding.
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I'm gonna Google that quick.
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Okay, go ahead and I'll keep talking.
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I can god knows I can talk, boys and girls.
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But I looked at Twitter, maybe from my office, the porcelain throne or something, you know, and you see these things, you're like, jeepers.
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I mean, we're not we're not planning more acres, but I think the market's doing a great job with the acres number that the USDA threw at us and the the potential for yields to go down and continue to go down.
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On the morning call that we all listened to the conference call, the Nesvik conference call that Mr.
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Crow has, you know, one of the brokers said, We need a big crop out of Europe next year.
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We need a big crop out of South America.
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So everything's heightened.
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I don't know where pro farmer numbers are going to come in, but I will tell you this they are consistently lower on the tour, and the tour goes through the I states.
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So if you wanted to know where the shocker is, it's in where that organization and other organizations put the fringe acres.
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And no one likes to be called a fringe, right?
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Right.
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It's like calling me a plus size model.
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I'm not sure it's a compliment.
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You think that's funny?
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Funny how, like a clown.
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But uh someone's gotta do the work.
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Someone's gotta do the work, all right?
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Otherwise, you know, you wouldn't be able to buy a shirt at Gap Plus.
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But or Lane Bryant for you ladies out there.
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But dress porn, perhaps, yeah.
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Just put a sheet over me.
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All right, listen.
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There's some problems.
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And Jed and I did a serious video yesterday.
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Not that videos aren't serious, you know.
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Sometimes we like to have fun because we spend a lot of time working, but something happened yesterday.
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The phones rang.
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A lot of people I've met throughout the years called, people signed up for premium.
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Lindsay at at work asked, What the heck just happened?
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I'll tell you what happened.
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People sold 470, 480 corn.
00:17:29.649 --> 00:17:30.929
They were scale up seller.
00:17:31.009 --> 00:17:32.849
Jed and I talked about it in the premium video.
00:17:33.009 --> 00:17:36.289
If you miss that or you sign up for it, we'll send you that video.
00:17:36.449 --> 00:17:41.250
Because sending you that video and what we said will make a lot more sense for what's going on right now.
00:17:41.730 --> 00:17:52.369
And so you your scale up seller, because you think that's it is the right thing to do, but we like to scale up sell and then put the option underneath to still capture some of that upside.
00:17:52.609 --> 00:17:54.769
So to her point, what the heck happened?
00:17:54.849 --> 00:17:57.969
They sold 470, 480, 490, they sold 27.
00:17:58.289 --> 00:18:02.849
Now we're 30 cents through it, and they want to sell more, but they're scared, they don't know their production.
00:18:03.009 --> 00:18:08.609
But I will tell you, I just had a call from a client before we went on, and he has big production.
00:18:08.689 --> 00:18:12.049
He's in a part of Indiana that is going well.
00:18:12.209 --> 00:18:18.209
So oftentimes you ask your guests how do things look in in your back neck of the woods.
00:18:18.289 --> 00:18:20.609
And uh phone's ringing right now.
00:18:20.849 --> 00:18:22.049
Yeah, well, that's a good thing.
00:18:23.409 --> 00:18:26.849
The uh, how do things look in your back neck of the woods?
00:18:27.089 --> 00:18:36.849
And I just uh flew up to Fargo, I'm at the Ag Bull Studios here in Mayville, and I think we got a if you want to know where I am, Jedsters, pop it up, baby.
00:18:37.009 --> 00:18:37.490
Where am I?
00:18:37.730 --> 00:18:39.329
Mayville, North Dakota.
00:18:43.569 --> 00:18:44.689
Pulled up a drought map.
00:18:44.769 --> 00:18:46.289
That is an ugly area.
00:18:46.369 --> 00:18:50.049
And I know if we just give Jed a few minutes, he could pull up a drought map.
00:18:50.209 --> 00:18:52.769
And I'm in Trail County and it it's in trouble.
00:18:52.929 --> 00:18:55.730
So it's not just Trail County that's in trouble.
00:18:55.809 --> 00:19:03.169
I just did a podcast earlier here at the studio with someone, and they're just the the the bushels aren't going to show up from the fringe areas.
00:19:03.409 --> 00:19:18.049
And when you talk about planting 90 million acres, 92, 95, sometimes there's always a trouble spot, but there's so many trouble spots that the markets get used to using affordable corn.
00:19:18.529 --> 00:19:22.129
And when you get used to using something, you need it.
00:19:22.209 --> 00:19:28.529
We find that in fuel, we find that in fertilizer, we find that in food, you know, like what's happened with beef.
00:19:28.689 --> 00:19:31.969
You get used to eating beef and you keep buying it regardless of the price.
00:19:32.049 --> 00:19:36.769
So whether corn's 480 or 520, you know, an end user's not going to get all freaked out.
00:19:36.849 --> 00:19:38.209
If they need corn, they need it.
00:19:38.369 --> 00:19:44.609
And the the farmer probably feels a little ahead of their skis because now we've taken out that double top.
00:19:44.769 --> 00:19:53.649
We're gonna, if the markets close firm, which they may, well, you know, all the headlines would be corn closes at you know highest levels for a long time.
00:19:53.809 --> 00:19:55.169
So there's a lot of factors.
00:19:55.329 --> 00:19:58.209
Now, can I tie this into outside markets, Davis?
00:19:58.449 --> 00:19:59.009
I would love that.
00:19:59.089 --> 00:19:59.809
Let's go there.
00:20:00.129 --> 00:20:00.449
Okay.
00:20:01.250 --> 00:20:03.009
The Fed did something the other day.
00:20:03.089 --> 00:20:08.689
Well, not the Fed, the Treasury, and they essentially out of nowhere just announced a QE.
00:20:09.089 --> 00:20:11.329
And QE means quantitative easing.
00:20:11.409 --> 00:20:13.329
If you're not familiar with it, go ahead and Google it.
00:20:13.490 --> 00:20:17.889
Just ask any chat or any bot you have, grok, just say, What's QE?
00:20:18.049 --> 00:20:25.409
Tommy was talking about quantitative easing, and they did this like informal, hey, we're gonna do a QE, but they didn't announce it like that.
00:20:25.490 --> 00:20:27.889
They just said we're gonna buy some bonds in the 30 year.
00:20:27.969 --> 00:20:32.849
Well, as you know, if you read the headlines, the 30-year yield's been creeping up, creeping up, creeping up.
00:20:32.929 --> 00:20:34.129
That affects the housing market.
00:20:34.209 --> 00:20:36.369
How do we tie all that into grains?
00:20:36.929 --> 00:20:45.409
Well, the Fed started buying back the 30-year, it made the stock market rally and it made gold and silver and other commodities explode.
00:20:45.569 --> 00:20:47.649
And it made the dollar collapse.
00:20:47.730 --> 00:20:55.250
Now, what's funny is I was doing that little morning show on Mondays for the tour, and Clinton asked me, Do you watch the dollar?
00:20:55.409 --> 00:20:59.969
And I literally said, No, you know, it's on there, we watch it, but it hasn't been a factor.
00:21:00.209 --> 00:21:03.089
Come in Tuesday morning, the dollar's absolutely collapsing.
00:21:03.250 --> 00:21:05.169
I'm like, Clinton, do I get any redoes?
00:21:05.250 --> 00:21:06.609
The dollar's in play.
00:21:06.849 --> 00:21:09.329
He's laughing and he's like, What's it all mean?
00:21:09.490 --> 00:21:13.089
I go, Gold's put on, I wouldn't even know how to do the math.
00:21:13.169 --> 00:21:14.209
I can do the silver math.
00:21:14.289 --> 00:21:17.169
I think silver might have put on six dollars this week or something.
00:21:17.329 --> 00:21:17.969
Big numbers.
00:21:18.129 --> 00:21:19.889
Of course, I'm gonna look over at my crude board.
00:21:19.969 --> 00:21:26.689
Crude's up 60 upon recording this at 8775, and it is at 1230 this afternoon.
00:21:26.849 --> 00:21:31.089
Big shout out to plus 500 looking at my plus 500 live trading screen.
00:21:31.250 --> 00:21:33.409
But there's a lot of outside factors.
00:21:33.569 --> 00:21:35.730
So let's take it from the top.
00:21:36.609 --> 00:21:37.569
Had a major problem.
00:21:37.649 --> 00:21:38.929
There's no coming back from that.
00:21:39.089 --> 00:21:41.809
Kansas City, Western Area had a major problem.
00:21:42.049 --> 00:21:43.730
That drought moved around a little bit.
00:21:43.809 --> 00:21:46.849
Um, there were pop-up storms, ridge riders, stuff like that.
00:21:47.009 --> 00:21:49.089
Well, you got a little drought monitor there, huh?
00:21:49.250 --> 00:21:49.409
Yeah.
00:21:50.369 --> 00:21:52.129
Yeah, there's some problems, right?
00:21:52.289 --> 00:21:55.490
There's some there's some real problems here in the drought.
00:21:55.569 --> 00:22:06.129
Hey, if you could pull up the state by state, Jud, just the you know, if you just Google the drought monitor and just pull up the whole United States, you'll see the circle where I'm at right now in North Dakota is in problem.
00:22:06.529 --> 00:22:08.689
And where do the new ethnic?
00:22:08.929 --> 00:22:09.809
Ethanol plants open up.
00:22:09.889 --> 00:22:13.089
The new ethanol plants open up where the cash market's the weakest.
00:22:13.169 --> 00:22:13.969
It makes sense, right?
00:22:14.049 --> 00:22:17.730
If you're going to start making ethanol, do it where the cash markets are soft.
00:22:17.889 --> 00:22:19.730
And we have a lot more demand.
00:22:19.889 --> 00:22:21.329
And there's one other thing, too.
00:22:21.569 --> 00:22:30.289
The rallies from earlier in the year on the Iran conflict, war, whatever you want to call it, that gave farmers a really good chance to price and sell old crop.
00:22:30.449 --> 00:22:33.490
So I do feel like there's a lot of old crop sold.
00:22:33.569 --> 00:22:35.969
Sometimes we come into this August crop report.
00:22:36.209 --> 00:22:41.169
As you know, most of us were queued up on this August crop report, like they're gonna tell us there's a good crop.
00:22:41.329 --> 00:22:41.649
Right.
00:22:41.889 --> 00:22:47.009
And that not only did they not tell us there's a good crop, they lowered the yield, they did raise the acres.
00:22:47.169 --> 00:22:51.649
Uh, analyst had that right, but no one was bold enough to say they're going down to 180.
00:22:51.730 --> 00:22:53.969
Like everyone just said, whoever everyone is.
00:22:54.049 --> 00:22:56.129
You know why I say everyone, I gotta put the quotes up, right?
00:22:56.369 --> 00:22:57.409
Whoever the hell everyone is.
00:22:57.490 --> 00:22:58.609
But those people.
00:22:58.849 --> 00:23:05.730
Well, there's a lot of smart analysts who crunch numbers all day, but ultimately the USDA, and you by the way, shout out to you and Kip, Mr.
00:23:06.129 --> 00:23:06.369
Mr.
00:23:06.609 --> 00:23:08.369
Tom for that interview yesterday, folks.
00:23:08.449 --> 00:23:14.769
If you haven't watched it, I I'm gonna go on record and say that was the best interview ever, and it had nothing to do with you, Davis.
00:23:15.169 --> 00:23:19.889
No, it had nothing to do with you, had to do that something to do with me.
00:23:20.129 --> 00:23:25.889
I mean, a little, but you did such a wonderful job of letting your guests talk.
00:23:25.969 --> 00:23:30.209
And if people don't uh can you talk a little bit about this new role Mr.
00:23:30.849 --> 00:23:31.169
Mr.
00:23:31.490 --> 00:23:33.169
Tom is taking?
00:23:33.250 --> 00:23:35.250
I mean he starts on Monday.
00:23:35.490 --> 00:23:41.730
He does, he does, and uh you know, I I guess I opened yesterday's show mentioning and I mentioned it too.
00:23:41.889 --> 00:23:44.049
I call him Ambassador Tom, he's a former ambassador.
00:23:44.209 --> 00:23:56.929
I don't know if that means ambassador for the rest of his life, but you know, Dagana, we got we had the ambassador on, and the idea is that Washington, DC has gotten the word.
00:23:57.089 --> 00:24:07.409
Apparently, Brooke Rollins has gotten the message with the surveys, with the with the constant, you know, asks for information and things.
00:24:07.809 --> 00:24:21.889
Part of what he's talking about is is rebuilding trust with farmers and finding better ways to collect this data because the survey fatigue, he talked about it, you know, it wasn't that long ago.
00:24:22.049 --> 00:24:27.329
87% of uh survey response rates was not that extraordinary.
00:24:27.490 --> 00:24:33.009
And most recently, here we're looking at mid-30% on the response rates and things.
00:24:34.369 --> 00:24:52.289
They recognize that they need to update things, bring things up with the times, use more technology to get this figured out, basically work smarter, not harder, on gathering this USDA data, not just to make it easier to gather, but also to get more accuracy.
00:24:52.529 --> 00:25:09.089
And Kip Kip Tom is is at the I asked if he was the big kahuna, and he very humbly said, Well, no, I'm just trying to do my part, but he's he's got a crew, and they're gonna figure this out, and I I think it's about darn time, and I think it's a step in the right direction.
00:25:09.329 --> 00:25:18.689
Yeah, Kip's a friend, a neighbor, he's a fellow Indiana farmer, and he's just a guy who will reach out to me once in a while, but he he was so open and willing to talk.
00:25:18.769 --> 00:25:28.209
And the reason I do want to congratulate you and the whole team is that I I really think I can't think of any other shows that give people the ability to go.
00:25:28.369 --> 00:25:31.569
If you if Kip wanted to go two hours, we could have gone 10.
00:25:31.649 --> 00:25:32.769
I mean, it didn't matter.
00:25:32.849 --> 00:25:35.089
We were there's no cutoff, there's no commercials.
00:25:35.409 --> 00:25:37.730
Of course, we have our sponsors, Trade the News Plus 500.
00:25:37.809 --> 00:25:38.289
That's all great.
00:25:38.369 --> 00:25:39.730
Those are people we use every day.
00:25:39.889 --> 00:25:41.329
They support us, we support them.
00:25:41.490 --> 00:25:43.490
But there's no we'll be back in three minutes.
00:25:43.569 --> 00:25:45.490
I mean, he just had something to say.
00:25:45.649 --> 00:25:56.049
But when I was sitting at the airport listening to that podcast, he kind of scared me in the sense where he's like, well, there's already companies out there that are flying satellites, I was kind of thinking of like Starlink's, right?
00:25:56.129 --> 00:26:00.689
Because I was on the airplane listening to your podcast with free internet from Starlink, right?
00:26:00.769 --> 00:26:09.009
And I'm I'm thinking, maybe you don't think Elon Musk could do a better job of figuring out the damn yield of a corn crop, right?
00:26:09.169 --> 00:26:23.889
You don't think if you said, Elon, we need to know weekly results of projected yield, it wouldn't be perfect, but it'd be a lot better than sending something in the mail, hoping a farmer sends it, fills it out, which takes time.
00:26:24.129 --> 00:26:30.449
Kip explained that process, and then mailing it back, and then wondering why the the rate's so low.
00:26:30.609 --> 00:26:33.250
So he's gonna get out get a get ahead of that.
00:26:33.329 --> 00:26:41.250
So that tying that all in, connecting the dots, as Jim has taught us to do, is that congratulations to all the folks who went on the tour.
00:26:41.329 --> 00:26:46.209
I think is by far the one of the most influential tours, and we'll do the results.
00:26:46.529 --> 00:26:48.689
I have my opinions, it doesn't matter.
00:26:48.929 --> 00:26:54.129
But I can tell you this, it it's it's not it's not all kumbaya this year.
00:26:54.449 --> 00:27:06.449
So you take that the yields are down, and maybe significantly in parts, and possibly getting worse where the west is hot and dry or warm and dry, and the east is consistently wet.
00:27:06.609 --> 00:27:07.250
Thank you, Jed.
00:27:07.809 --> 00:27:08.609
Well done.
00:27:08.849 --> 00:27:09.490
Thank you, Jed.
00:27:09.889 --> 00:27:14.689
Viewers, if you see on North Dakota that red dot, it kind of looks like a dartboard.
00:27:14.769 --> 00:27:18.849
You see the red, then orange, then I don't know what the next color is brown, then yellow.
00:27:19.009 --> 00:27:20.289
I am in that red dot.
00:27:20.369 --> 00:27:22.209
Mayville, North Dakota, Trail County.
00:27:22.289 --> 00:27:23.329
That is Trail County.
00:27:23.409 --> 00:27:25.649
So they're they're having a really tough time.
00:27:25.809 --> 00:27:27.969
Our clients, friend, these people are friends.
00:27:28.129 --> 00:27:30.929
I'm going to a client's a wedding tonight.
00:27:31.089 --> 00:27:34.609
This is someone I met as a client, and you know, I consider them family.
00:27:34.689 --> 00:27:38.129
So these folks are when you don't have the bushels, it it stinks.
00:27:38.209 --> 00:27:39.889
I'm not gonna kid you, it just stinks.
00:27:40.209 --> 00:27:46.689
So the whole point of Jed and I do in the video is to say, hey, there's serious things happening, we're not crazy, you know.
00:27:46.929 --> 00:27:53.889
There's just our job as brokers, analysts, or risk advisors is to tell you when something changed, and a couple things changed.
00:27:53.969 --> 00:27:55.490
On the production front, it changed.
00:27:55.569 --> 00:28:01.569
I think the markets are aware of that, but on the outside markets factor, that changed a lot.
00:28:01.889 --> 00:28:11.409
So when everyone's watching corn and uh Indiana's yield, most people don't realize what gold and silver in the dollar did this you know today.
00:28:11.649 --> 00:28:20.049
If if if you drank too much last night and went to bed long cattle, they close about unchanged, you're like, I wasn't that busy in cattle.
00:28:20.129 --> 00:28:23.409
You had no idea that they there were people saying they might be limit down.
00:28:23.490 --> 00:28:26.769
They didn't, but boy, did they trade at much lower levels.
00:28:26.849 --> 00:28:33.089
So the risk, whether it's cattle or corn or uh a mortgage or interest rate risk is is really heightened.
00:28:33.169 --> 00:28:40.449
And I also to just tell a story for people out there, you know, I had a farmer call me yesterday and he asked if he should keep farming.
00:28:40.609 --> 00:28:43.490
He said, our prices, do you think prices can go up?
00:28:43.809 --> 00:28:54.129
I said the market's showing signs based on the options market, like if wheat's trading$750, it still costs a lot of money to buy an$8 call and there's$10 calls trading.
00:28:54.209 --> 00:29:01.809
So the market has a premium to it and could stay that way for a while, or that so many of the corn contracts have a five in front of them now.
00:29:02.049 --> 00:29:08.369
But I said, if corn goes to$550 and your cost goes up, is it is it really the game you want to be in, right?
00:29:08.689 --> 00:29:18.529
And and the risk now to farmers is we keep if we keep going up, big if, but if we keep going up, they now have significant downside risk.
00:29:18.769 --> 00:29:26.209
When you look at those June lows in corn, and we're trading 440 deceas corn, if my memory serves me correct, you know, what was our downside?
00:29:26.369 --> 00:29:28.689
420, 4, 390.
00:29:29.009 --> 00:29:34.689
You go up to 550 corn,$6 corn before you even plant the crop, or there's there's risk.
00:29:34.769 --> 00:29:40.209
So I had someone call me earlier today and they said I'm a little too forward sold, but I don't think it can go up much more.
00:29:40.449 --> 00:29:45.730
They were just trying to get me to say it's okay that they're forward sold and they didn't buy calls.
00:29:46.049 --> 00:29:47.649
I said there's only one way to stop this.
00:29:47.809 --> 00:29:48.849
We just have to stop it.
00:29:49.009 --> 00:29:52.209
Like right now, stop it, get a hold, get in control.
00:29:52.289 --> 00:29:55.089
And those are all things I've learned in my career.
00:29:55.250 --> 00:30:07.089
And boy, I if I could go back in my trading career and just take smaller losses more often and just admit I was wrong and move on and fix it, like sure, you're still gonna lose, but fix it, right?
00:30:07.169 --> 00:30:18.529
If you sold 470 corn and we're trading 507, do something about it because if 507 turns into 527, 557, then what happens per Lindsay's discussion?
00:30:18.769 --> 00:30:20.689
Why the heck are the phones so busy?
00:30:20.849 --> 00:30:27.089
I said, because people made decisions that they thought were right at the time, and now the market thinks different.
00:30:27.409 --> 00:30:32.289
So with that, uh, I'll talk a little bit more if you ask me some questions, but I just want to give people an update.
00:30:32.449 --> 00:30:40.529
Upon recording this at 1240, beans are close to high up to sep corn up uh four, D's corn up four, uh D'27.
00:30:40.609 --> 00:30:45.089
The whole corn board's pretty firm here going home, and yeah, I don't know what the tour is going to release.
00:30:45.250 --> 00:30:51.889
It could be if you just take the results they put out so far, the market's reacted friendly to that.
00:30:52.609 --> 00:31:05.809
I'd be really curious to see how our friends factor in the outlier states because they only go through the little part of you know, right here, like Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska, and they go up to Minnesota.
00:31:05.889 --> 00:31:07.730
There's so much more the growing belt.
00:31:07.809 --> 00:31:12.289
They don't talk about Canadian corn or a lot of people grow corn.
00:31:12.449 --> 00:31:13.569
A lot of people grow beans.
00:31:13.649 --> 00:31:17.889
And well, and the South is growing corn too these days, they grow good corn down there.
00:31:18.049 --> 00:31:21.809
Yeah, my friend, new, new, new subscriber, Neil Denton.
00:31:21.889 --> 00:31:26.689
I don't know if we have the shout-out button, but uh thank you.
00:31:26.849 --> 00:31:28.449
Thanks for subscribing, Neil.
00:31:28.609 --> 00:31:33.169
But Neil's got a really, really, really great crop going in Kentucky, Tennessee border.
00:31:33.250 --> 00:31:34.449
But you know what happened?
00:31:34.929 --> 00:31:41.889
He got that Mexican special that uh number three De Choro the other day hit him, and he had 90 mile-an-hour winds at his farm.
00:31:42.209 --> 00:31:42.769
Great show.
00:31:42.849 --> 00:31:44.769
Let me translate from Gersafi Ease.
00:31:44.929 --> 00:31:45.730
That's uh Drecho.
00:31:46.369 --> 00:31:50.929
The number three with with extra beans, because there was a lot of hot air.
00:31:51.089 --> 00:31:55.969
But he he had a beauty of a crop, and the old old mother nature is trumping us all.
00:31:56.049 --> 00:31:57.329
And no pun when they say Trump.
00:31:57.409 --> 00:31:58.769
I don't want anyone getting angry.
00:31:58.849 --> 00:32:03.250
But speaking of angry, if I was a cattleman today, I'd be pissed.
00:32:03.409 --> 00:32:06.609
Yeah, I if I was a rancher, I'd be pissed.
00:32:07.169 --> 00:32:10.049
And but whatever, I get one vote, y'all get one vote.
00:32:10.129 --> 00:32:11.969
I'm not, I uh I don't know.
00:32:12.289 --> 00:32:13.250
I don't know what to say.
00:32:13.409 --> 00:32:21.969
Sometimes I wake up, I was driving to work here today, gonna work a little, record a podcast at the studio, and here comes the true socials.
00:32:22.289 --> 00:32:24.449
Yeah, I'm like, now that's gonna leave a mark.
00:32:24.689 --> 00:32:25.809
That's gonna leave a mark.
00:32:25.969 --> 00:32:28.369
But let's on a positive note, yes, sir.
00:32:28.689 --> 00:32:29.889
Yes, here's the thing.
00:32:30.049 --> 00:32:35.169
I I've got kind of a theory on that, and I'm a political agnostic, whatever.
00:32:35.649 --> 00:32:37.809
We watch a lot of Matlock around here.
00:32:38.369 --> 00:32:40.769
Oh boy, I'm gonna like how you tie this together.
00:32:41.009 --> 00:33:04.609
And sometimes when when Ben Matlock doesn't quite when he comes up against a brick wall in an investigation, he'll kind of do some things to try and try and shake the suspect loose, or you know, just kind of sh he just stirs the pot every once in a while, and you know, sometimes the answer just floats right to the top.
00:33:05.009 --> 00:33:13.969
I don't know if that's what's happening here, or if you know, he genuinely thinks that it's gonna take 90 days to fix the national cattle herd.
00:33:14.369 --> 00:33:15.009
I don't know.
00:33:15.169 --> 00:33:17.649
I don't know, buddy, but I I tend to agree with you.
00:33:17.730 --> 00:33:22.449
It it does seem uh like a misguided thing to uh to say and to do.
00:33:23.569 --> 00:33:27.169
Yeah, I I I I can't get in the mind of President Trump.
00:33:27.250 --> 00:33:29.250
There's so many things he's doing that I agree with.
00:33:29.329 --> 00:33:31.889
There's so many things that let's just say this.
00:33:32.049 --> 00:33:36.529
As as someone who is the leader of America, maybe he knows things we don't.
00:33:36.609 --> 00:33:37.169
I don't know.
00:33:37.250 --> 00:33:39.250
You know, we only see default, yeah.
00:33:39.490 --> 00:33:39.649
Right.
00:33:39.809 --> 00:33:42.929
We only see the headline, we don't see the why or the what.
00:33:43.089 --> 00:33:44.289
We won't be able to.
00:33:45.169 --> 00:33:52.369
I don't know if if when Jimmy Carter was president, if they didn't think he was a good president at the time, it just comes out years later, you know, he wasn't that good.
00:33:52.449 --> 00:33:54.609
And then you look at all the statistics, right?
00:33:55.009 --> 00:33:59.169
But I don't know for the cattlemen that the math is gonna math on this one, that's all I could say.
00:33:59.409 --> 00:34:08.050
And I there's nothing I can do about it, but I do want to leave everyone on a really good point that there are tools you can use, futures options, LRP, all those things.
00:34:08.210 --> 00:34:11.730
There are so many things you have access to.
00:34:11.969 --> 00:34:27.889
And regardless if you need to buy a few bushels back or you need to hedge a few cattle or you need to use a program to better buy your insurance, which a lot of people are really wise to how insurance works, and it's wonderful, and that's all part of the farm bill we need to get worked out.
00:34:29.089 --> 00:34:34.369
There are really great people like Kip who are really trying to get us up to speed.
00:34:34.449 --> 00:34:38.690
And I I never like hearing that other countries have advantages to us.
00:34:38.849 --> 00:34:50.210
So for the very the very side that hat hates data site centers also wants the USDA numbers to be that accurate within a week, not within six months.
00:34:50.369 --> 00:34:53.969
And the fact we do revision six months a year later is just crazy.
00:34:54.130 --> 00:35:04.210
So I don't know, I'm rambling, but I will tell you that I'm emotional because I'm a human being, and our clients are emotional, and there's a lot of risk, a lot of dollars out there.
00:35:04.449 --> 00:35:08.369
I met for coffee with a banker friend of mine, and I said, How you doing?
00:35:08.449 --> 00:35:09.650
He's like, How you think I'm doing?
00:35:09.730 --> 00:35:12.130
You know, farmers were tight coming in this year.
00:35:12.289 --> 00:35:14.929
Now they don't have a crop up here, money's gonna be tight.
00:35:15.089 --> 00:35:25.250
Like people are stressed, and you got to be compassionate, but you can't yeah, it's like that person praying for someone to give them a job and they're sitting on the couch, right?
00:35:25.329 --> 00:35:27.409
You gotta get off your ass and do something about it.
00:35:27.569 --> 00:35:27.889
Right.
00:35:28.049 --> 00:35:31.009
And it's it's a get off your ass type of time here in the markets.
00:35:31.089 --> 00:35:32.529
That's what I'd like to finish it.
00:35:32.769 --> 00:35:33.409
Yeah, yeah.
00:35:33.569 --> 00:35:34.130
Well said.
00:35:34.289 --> 00:35:39.009
What uh so it's dry up there, is it is it hot in in North Dakota right now today?
00:35:39.170 --> 00:35:43.009
It it's 83, and we have highs of 82, 83 every single day.
00:35:43.089 --> 00:35:50.610
It's not 60, 68 or 72, it's 83, 83, 83, and you could see that east versus west.
00:35:50.769 --> 00:35:53.889
You could see that green temperature, you know, green being cooler.
00:35:53.969 --> 00:36:01.089
And look at Texas, look at states like Oklahoma, and you know, those those that's tough for cotton.
00:36:01.170 --> 00:36:02.849
You've seen markets like cotton react.
00:36:03.009 --> 00:36:04.130
You've seen markets, folks.
00:36:04.210 --> 00:36:09.089
I'll just throw one out there uh unless they gong me out, but like sugars had a big bounce.
00:36:09.170 --> 00:36:13.650
Not uh they grow a lot of sugar beets up here, but the world sugar markets had a big bounce.
00:36:13.809 --> 00:36:15.650
There's just a lot of things at play.
00:36:15.730 --> 00:36:24.210
So take some time to educate yourself on your crops, your yield, understand the programs, but also understand the big world picture.
00:36:24.289 --> 00:36:30.369
And the big world picture this week is that something changed in the outside markets that's friendly commodities.
00:36:30.610 --> 00:36:36.690
And when Wall Street wants to own commodities, they don't care if it's 505, 510, they don't care what the old high is.
00:36:36.849 --> 00:36:38.769
When they want to own it, they just own it.
00:36:39.009 --> 00:36:40.210
Yeah, Tommy.
00:36:40.369 --> 00:36:44.369
Usually I have I've been having Jim Weismeyer on my Friday shows here.
00:36:44.529 --> 00:36:55.089
Just I what it what happens is we we talk through some of the stuff, and then you and Jim have a a weekend edition that you do together.
00:36:55.250 --> 00:37:03.569
And you know, part of the function of me having Jim on is it's so that you guys you know can go less than three hours and still sort of touch base.
00:37:03.889 --> 00:37:06.210
You and Jim got a show coming up this weekend.
00:37:06.529 --> 00:37:07.409
Yeah, absolutely.
00:37:07.489 --> 00:37:08.769
We're gonna record that tomorrow.
00:37:08.849 --> 00:37:13.730
I'm proud to call Jim a friend, and Jim's uh now Jim is part of Agble.
00:37:13.889 --> 00:37:20.529
I mean, it just took five shirts and five different colors to get him on board, but uh you slow walked him to him too.
00:37:21.009 --> 00:37:24.130
Oh, the amount of cotton they use to make those shirts is uh amazing.
00:37:24.210 --> 00:37:26.049
That's probably why cotton has a bid.
00:37:26.690 --> 00:37:30.369
And uh I always tell him, Jim, we insulted you on the show, but you didn't listen to it.
00:37:30.529 --> 00:37:31.569
He's like, What'd you guys say?
00:37:31.650 --> 00:37:32.690
I go, You gotta listen.
00:37:32.849 --> 00:37:36.929
I mean, yeah, but can I challenge everyone?
00:37:37.089 --> 00:37:45.569
Just get a little better every day, get a little better, yeah, understand the finance and economics of what's going on in outside markets.
00:37:45.650 --> 00:37:47.969
And I that's why I try to teach everyone.
00:37:48.210 --> 00:37:50.690
It's just an advantage I have from being in the pits.
00:37:50.769 --> 00:37:55.089
I traded in the tenure pit, I traded in the cattle pit, the corn pit.
00:37:55.170 --> 00:37:59.170
I I had a full seat at the board and I still do, and a seat at the Merc.
00:37:59.250 --> 00:38:02.130
Look at this the picture behind me over my shoulders, the border trade.
00:38:02.210 --> 00:38:05.569
And I just love that a friend of mine gifted me that poster.
00:38:05.650 --> 00:38:07.730
It says, uh, on our way to the border trade.
00:38:07.809 --> 00:38:17.170
And so America's the best country in the world, and whatever we could do to help someone, it just whether it be listening to this video, which is free, or uh, you know, tell a friend, right?
00:38:17.409 --> 00:38:22.610
Here, here, here, here, call a friend, call a friend, phone a friend, text a friend.
00:38:22.849 --> 00:38:24.289
Let's go to the National Weather Service.
00:38:24.449 --> 00:38:32.449
Dangerous heat to persist across the desert southwest through the weekend and across the southern plains and lower Mississippi Valley through at least the middle of the week.
00:38:32.690 --> 00:38:43.489
Numerous daily record high temperatures are expected through at least Tuesday for much of Texas and Oklahoma, as well as portions of Louisiana, New Mexico, and Arizona.
00:38:43.650 --> 00:38:46.369
Items of mild interest, Tommy Grasopi.
00:38:46.849 --> 00:38:50.769
It's August 21st on this date in 1904.
00:38:51.170 --> 00:39:01.489
Count Basie, American pianist, composer, and band leader who spent a fair amount of time developing his sound, his craft right here in Kansas City, USA.
00:39:01.730 --> 00:39:05.650
I don't know if you know, it's a it's a hotbed of jazz down here.
00:39:05.730 --> 00:39:08.769
And that that was true through the 20s and 30s, especially.
00:39:08.849 --> 00:39:09.969
I was reading about it.
00:39:10.210 --> 00:39:21.089
A lot of it was was thanks to the the crooked government that was going on and the the gangsters and the all the sorts of extracurricular things that Kansas City was known for at the time.
00:39:21.250 --> 00:39:27.170
It's a different time now, but uh, but somehow jazz was able to to find a home here.
00:39:27.409 --> 00:39:30.769
1959, Hawaii becomes the 50th state.
00:39:30.929 --> 00:39:37.170
And a quick quote before we go: it is said that good things come to those who wait.
00:39:37.329 --> 00:39:40.610
I believe that good things come to those who work.
00:39:41.170 --> 00:39:45.329
That from Will Chamberlain, born this day in 1939.
00:39:45.569 --> 00:39:50.449
Well, as you heard Tommy say, there will be a conversation between he and Weesmeyer this weekend.
00:39:50.610 --> 00:39:51.650
Look for that coming up.
00:39:51.730 --> 00:39:56.529
Uh, recording tomorrow should be out tomorrow evening, sometime, maybe even in the afternoon.
00:39:56.769 --> 00:39:58.449
Before I let you go, trade the news.
00:39:58.529 --> 00:40:02.369
We use TradeThe News to keep us on top of the news that moves the markets.
00:40:02.449 --> 00:40:03.730
Thanks to Trade the News.
00:40:03.969 --> 00:40:06.130
Trade the news, it's news you can use.
00:40:06.289 --> 00:40:12.849
And once again, if you haven't had a chance, go to AgBull.com, check out all the lavish premium services we've got for you, people.
00:40:13.089 --> 00:40:18.610
Visit AgBull.com or call 855-737 Farm.
00:40:19.009 --> 00:40:27.569
Jed Sidwell to set you up bright and early Monday morning, and then I'll have a conversation with Mike Castle from Stone X on Monday afternoon.
00:40:27.809 --> 00:40:30.929
Just a thought to carry with you this weekend.
00:40:32.049 --> 00:40:34.929
Two wrongs don't make a right.
00:40:35.489 --> 00:40:38.369
But two rights made an airplane.
00:40:38.529 --> 00:40:39.489
Thanks for being here.
00:40:39.569 --> 00:40:40.369
Have a great weekend.
00:40:40.529 --> 00:40:42.449
Ag squawk, Ag Squawk.