درباره این اپیزود
Corn gets drilled by a bearish USDA WASDE surprise, then fights back off the lows as we sort out what the tape might be saying beneath the headline yield. Tommy Grissoffi joins us to turn a brutal report day into a practical talk on positioning, leverage, and the basics that keep a grain marketing plan standing.
• key WASDE numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat and why the trade reacted so violently
• settlements across grains and livestock and what the cattle strength implies for feed costs
• questions raised by Nebraska ear count math and how to think about USDA data quality
• why heavy volume at the lows can signal liquidation and fund length coming out
• risk management under leverage, margin calls and options selling blowups
• back-to-basics marketing framework: bushels, basis, bins and cash flow timing
• wheat export weakness, freight costs and why “Black Sea disruption” is not a simple bullish switch
• why bonds and interest rates matter to every farm balance sheet
• separating useful market intel from viral internet noise
Please visit AgBull.com and check out our premium services. We still have some Bluetooth speakers we would be happy to send you in exchange for a one-year subscription, which also includes two months free. $ 250 for a one-year subscription, or take it slow: $25 a month.
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Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
یادداشت ها را نشان دهید 🔗
رونوشت 🔗
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Deep breath, everybody.
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What a day.
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I'm gonna sing about it a little later because I figure I've got a choice here.
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I can sing or I can cry, and I just can't let you folks see me break down.
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Not today.
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Not today.
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I'll also bring in Tommy G.
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He's gonna talk us through kind of some next steps and help us with some perspective.
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He's actually got some very positive things to talk about today in the wake of those reports.
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I'll run down the high points of the WASDI report coming right up.
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From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Bull, your pal Davis Michelson.
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Pleased is punched to have you along on this Friday.
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It is a report day.
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In case you haven't heard, it's October 9, 2026.
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It's a Friday.
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And hey, there's this grandma put on put on another roast.
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The harvest window is wide open for most of crop country.
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And well, although those growers in the southeast who have made such impressive gains in just overall production over the past few years are gonna get soggy if they haven't already.
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But uh, as I said, it is it is report day.
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And once again, corn took it in the teeth.
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I was just talking with Tommy Grissaffi.
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I'm gonna bring him in in just a little bit, but he's got a ton of positives just on the surface here.
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If you're a corn grower trying to make a buck, it looks a little tough today.
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And we we're going to acknowledge that.
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I'm gonna bring the things that moved the markets around, some of the report details.
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I'm calling it report details light.
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And then we're gonna bring in Tommy, and he's got some some very sunshiny perspective to bring to us, and I'm very excited about that because it is important to keep perspective.
00:02:28.530 --> 00:02:38.049
It's easy to just focus on the negatives, but here we like to accentuate the positive anytime that we can, and I think we'll all be better for it.
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Welcome to AgSquawk in the afternoon.
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Glad to have you here.
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Before we get too much further, I'd love to direct you to AgBull.com.
00:02:45.489 --> 00:02:49.569
You can take your marketing by the horns at AgBull.com.
00:02:49.729 --> 00:02:53.489
Take advantage of our AgBull Intel, our daily services.
00:02:53.650 --> 00:03:06.689
Uh, we we won't blow you up for no reason, day after day after day, but we will absolutely keep you informed with what you need to know when you need to know it, maximize your chance for success at Agbull.com.
00:03:06.849 --> 00:03:07.810
Some housekeeping.
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Big week this week.
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I had a great time doing these shows.
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First of all, Randy Martinson called it.
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We'll talk about that a little bit later, but on Monday, first thing, I asked him about the reports, and at that point, he was in the camp of eh, it's probably not gonna do much.
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It might, probably not.
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He said, either way, he's comfortable just standing pat where we are and looking for a little better opportunity to re-enter some of these markets here.
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And I I think in a in a sort of in a sort of left-handed way, he he was uh speaking prophetically there because this may just look like an opportunity.
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Like I said, Tommy's coming up.
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I'm getting ahead of myself here, but Tommy may echo that same sentiment.
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I had some guests on this week offering discounts for Ag Bull viewers.
00:03:57.650 --> 00:04:01.969
First of all, you might remember Sam Goldberg, the filmmaker behind Perfect Sundays.
00:04:02.370 --> 00:04:05.409
Perfect SundaysTV.com.
00:04:05.650 --> 00:04:10.370
PerfectSundaysTV.com is where you check out the six-part miniseries that they made.
00:04:10.530 --> 00:04:12.930
The Painter Sisters are in there if you know them.
00:04:13.009 --> 00:04:15.650
Uh other people from Ag Sharky shows up.
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Rob Sharkey shows up in a cameo appearance on this here, and it's a uh the story of a dairy recovering from tragedy.
00:04:23.490 --> 00:04:30.129
Go to perfectsundays.com and enter the code AGBull at checkout to receive an exclusive discount.
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That's perfectsundaystv.com for that.
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Might be some good weekend watching.
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Take your mind off the markets a little bit.
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And then yesterday's guests, Mike and Carter from Terrain, also generously offered viewers a discount on their services.
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If you uh once again enter the code Agbull at checkout, AgBull at checkout.
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Visit terrainwater.com.
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That's terrainwater.com for the most updated water management solutions you will find anywhere.
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Terrainwater.com.
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They're on the leading edge of data collection and actually putting that data to work to help you save some dough in your production costs.
00:05:10.050 --> 00:05:12.050
And uh it's uh it's a terrific service.
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Go to go to terrainwater.com, enter Agble at checkout.
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Okay.
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That was the housekeeping.
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Let's talk about the WASDI.
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Let's just talk about it.
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Let's talk about it.
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Another extremely bearish report for corn today.
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The yield was raised to 181.2 bushels per acre, which moved production up as well.
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New crop ending stocks were increased, and despite higher export forecasts, it was not enough to offset the increased corn production number.
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The thing is, the trade was expecting the yield to move lower.
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Massive market reaction to the downside.
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The average on farm corn price per bushel cut a dime to$4.70.
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Soybeans were more neutral-ish, although still initially the read was slightly bearish.
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We didn't end up in bearish territory, I can tell you that.
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Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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Yield was raised less than a full bushel to 53.1 boo per acre, which raised total production, but just slightly.
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Ending stocks little changed on soybeans, with exports up just slightly.
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The average on farm soybean price held steady at twelve bucks even.
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Over to wheat, production was all but unchanged.
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Exports were cut and feed and residual was raised.
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That put ending stocks at 740 million bushels up from September's 717.
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The average on farm price was lowered from 640 to 630.
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The bummer here is that cut to exports kind of suggests the disruptions in the Black Sea have not yet equated to an increased export demand forecast.
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And that kind of surprises me, but we'll have to wait and see on that.
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So let's do get to the tail of the ticker.
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We'll rewind right back to the open.
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Corn, soybeans, and wheat explored early session lows from the get-go, but quickly recovered to trade mostly higher.
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Cattle futures recovered from yesterday's losses with feeder futures opening on session lows.
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Lean hog futures were under moderate selling pressure in early session trade.
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And this, okay, so I tuned in.
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This must be, I just want to say, I think 11.15 or so.
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The report was out at 11.
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Immediately following the report, corn futures dove 18 cents lower.
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Soybeans dropped a dime.
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Winter wheat futures fell 10 to 14 cents.
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Now we wound up uh lower than that on corn, lower than that on wheat.
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Well, right, kind of right in there on wheat, but both were off session lows.
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And I think that's part of what Tommy wants to bring out as kind of some positive news.
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Let's do get to the settlements where December corn, I just gotta say it.
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I gotta say it, it gives me no joy, down 20 and 1.5 cents on your December corn, 479 and three-quarters at settlement.
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November soybeans up.
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November beans were up.
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Shook off that neutral to slightly bearish report, up four and one half cents on the NOVE,$12.92.
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Meal and oil were both higher with soybean meal leading the advance in the soy complex.
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On the wheat side, Chicago December wheat down 12 and a quarter, 6.71 to the KC down 17 on the day, 7.19 and 1 quarter.
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Probably some pessimism about that export forecast, would be my guess.
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Let's go over to the cattles where the news is much better.
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It was a stampede higher in the cattle, November feeder cattle up$7.7 and one half,$341.95.
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Let's just look at some of these.
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$7.92 higher in the Jan,$7.95 higher in the March, out to the April,$767 and one half higher on your feeder cattles,$331 and 45.
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Over to the fat cattle.
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They had a pretty good day today as well.
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The December contract was up 350, all told, settled out at 227.05.
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Here again, looking out to the Feb 362 higher.
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Out to the April, 330 higher.
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Good day in the cattles.
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And then over to the Lean Hogs, your December contract down 77 and 12 cents at 67.82 and one half.
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Uh, thanks to our sponsor, plus 500.
00:09:26.769 --> 00:09:28.370
I've said it before here at Agbol.
00:09:28.529 --> 00:09:31.730
We use Plus500 T4 software every single day.
00:09:31.810 --> 00:09:37.250
I was just using it every day for real-time quotes and a host of other important functions.
00:09:37.570 --> 00:09:44.210
T4 software from plus 500, just plus 500, thanks to plus 500.
00:09:44.290 --> 00:09:45.649
And just give me a moment here.
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I gotta grab my guitar.
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All right, as I said a little bit earlier, um, if if I didn't sing, I would cry.
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Tommy will probably have something to say about that.
00:10:01.490 --> 00:10:05.490
That that may you know have made this song completely unnecessary.
00:10:05.649 --> 00:10:11.009
But but I thought that now might be a good time to regale you with just a little bit of song.
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Are you ready?
00:10:11.970 --> 00:10:13.570
Let's all just take a moment.
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Yesterday.
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Oh, the downside seems so far away.
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Then production numbers clear the way.
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I can't believe this was the day.
00:10:49.090 --> 00:10:52.210
The Beatles yesterday was the number one hit.
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With that, let's bring in Tommy Grasafi and get a little help in a good news.
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Tommy Grassoffi, the Ag Bull T-Rex himself.
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How you doing, my brother?
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You know what, Davis?
00:11:04.529 --> 00:11:05.409
I'm doing all right.
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My nerves were a little bit uh rattled when we were lock limit down.
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I was scared, not for me personally, just for agriculture, but by the end of the day, I said I started writing down all the positives, and I have a excuse me.
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Getting choked up just thinking about all that.
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Yeah, take it easy.
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Deep breath.
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It's okay.
00:11:28.129 --> 00:11:29.330
It's that kind of day today.
00:11:29.409 --> 00:11:32.930
You know, you gotta you gotta write down the positives and life's and the negatives.
00:11:33.009 --> 00:11:39.970
And I have a long list of positive and ag, and it happened late in the day, but uh I think we have to talk about it.
00:11:40.129 --> 00:11:41.889
And I will give you credit.
00:11:42.050 --> 00:11:48.370
You said on the show a few times this week, nobody thinks we're gonna do anything, but that's what they thought last time.
00:11:48.610 --> 00:12:01.889
And going into the report, I just want to let people know if you think someone has these USDA numbers before they come out, why was corn up five cent bid a second before the USDA report?
00:12:01.970 --> 00:12:04.210
Why were beans up 10 cent bid?
00:12:04.370 --> 00:12:12.690
And then they gave what was extremely bearish numbers in the corn and bearish in the beans, too, if you just look at the yield.
00:12:12.769 --> 00:12:15.330
But uh, there was a lot of positives in the back end.
00:12:15.409 --> 00:12:17.250
And we'll get into all that in a bunch more here.
00:12:17.490 --> 00:12:17.970
Yeah, for sure.
00:12:18.129 --> 00:12:19.570
Weismeyer did some digging.
00:12:19.649 --> 00:12:24.210
I just want to throw this at you because this almost feels like tinfoil hat stuff to me, Tommy.
00:12:24.290 --> 00:12:30.769
I don't know if you saw this, just came out right before we went, before we hit the big blue button to record here.
00:12:30.930 --> 00:12:31.889
Just gonna quote it here.
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Weismeyer writes, quote, USDA's October crop production report shows Nebraska's estimated corn ear count rising 1,700 ears per acre from September, but the accompanying irrigated and non-irrigated figures move in the opposite direction, raising a question about how the statewide estimate was calculated.
00:12:51.490 --> 00:12:55.090
A table on page 33, if you know, you know.
00:12:55.330 --> 00:13:10.129
Table on page 33 puts Nebraska's all corn ear count at 26,700, some numbers here up from September, an increase of 6.8%, irrigated corn ear counts declined, non-irrigated counts fell 300.
00:13:10.370 --> 00:13:14.930
Tommy, it it almost feels like there was, I don't know if you could even call this a rounding error.
00:13:15.250 --> 00:13:17.409
Almost like maybe something went wrong with the data here.
00:13:17.490 --> 00:13:26.690
And I hate to, I hate to be that guy because I feel like I'm arguing with the ref at this point, which is something that I absolutely hate doing, and I hate to even watch.
00:13:27.009 --> 00:13:29.330
But this this does seem conspicuous.
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What do you make of it?
00:13:30.769 --> 00:13:31.170
It does.
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And when you talk about that arguing with the ref, someone, a good friend of mine, Jack Fitz, Jack Fitzgerald, I used to work with them at Advanced Trading, he sent me this quote during the report or right after, and it caught me off guard.
00:13:43.730 --> 00:13:51.170
You've probably heard this one, but it was do you feel like you're betting on a boxing match and the winner has already been declared before the punch is thrown?
00:13:51.330 --> 00:13:52.930
And that was after the report.
00:13:53.730 --> 00:14:01.570
I'm no expert on ear counts in Nebraska, yeah, but I'm a big fan of crop tours and everything else.
00:14:01.649 --> 00:14:06.050
I've been on them, and I'm a big fan of farmers walking their own fields.
00:14:06.290 --> 00:14:19.090
And you uh what I'd like to do, and I'd like to see you do, is you had on a few months ago, and we could, if folks want to go out and Google it, Kip Tom was on the show.
00:14:19.250 --> 00:14:19.730
Oh, yeah.
00:14:19.970 --> 00:14:28.050
And Kip Tom is a farmer in Indiana, and he's now been appointed to the USDA to help clean up these numbers.
00:14:28.290 --> 00:14:41.330
And he had talked about releasing numbers more often, using all types of what seems to be far out technology, but not that far out technology when you think about what's available out there in the world.
00:14:41.409 --> 00:14:42.610
I'll give you an example.
00:14:42.769 --> 00:14:48.290
I mean, yesterday, three of the big telecoms had three of their worst days ever because Starlink said, you know what?
00:14:48.370 --> 00:14:49.810
No, no, we're gonna do this and that.
00:14:49.970 --> 00:14:56.050
And three traditional telecommunication companies would be like, that would put us out of business pretty much.
00:14:56.210 --> 00:14:58.850
And I mean, that's how fast technology is moving.
00:14:59.090 --> 00:15:04.769
So the fact we don't have a better read on what's out there is something everybody should be questioning.
00:15:04.930 --> 00:15:06.370
I really do believe that.
00:15:06.610 --> 00:15:19.250
And I got a whole laundry list of you know, sayings from legendary owners of clearing firms, and uh, some of these guys are still in the business, some have passed, and their kids and grandkids now run the business.
00:15:19.330 --> 00:15:21.889
But I want to quote one of them was from Mr.
00:15:22.050 --> 00:15:35.090
Dick Freimeier from Iowa Grain, and he used to traditionally go in the crop reports flat, and he would always say, You want to sc you want to trade with the guys screwed up and not be the guy screwed up.
00:15:35.170 --> 00:15:40.290
And if if a 20 cent down day in corn just ruined you, you were out of position.
00:15:40.450 --> 00:15:45.250
You were the the cards were stacked against you before the number even came out.
00:15:45.409 --> 00:15:52.690
Because if you're betting everything on that we can't go down, and historically, these are pretty good prices, maybe not at this cost production.
00:15:52.769 --> 00:15:56.129
I will note that, then you were out of position.
00:15:56.450 --> 00:16:03.409
And I do anytime you want to jump in the positives, I got a list here so long that it'll yeah.
00:16:03.490 --> 00:16:10.930
I th I I think I'm ready here, you know, and I I have a feel let's can we just start with with King Korn here?
00:16:11.090 --> 00:16:19.730
Because we bottomed out here on my screen somewhere around 470 and then settled out at 479 and three-quarters.
00:16:20.050 --> 00:16:23.810
Is can we call that a recovery or or are we dreaming to call that a recovery?
00:16:24.290 --> 00:16:25.649
You can call that a hell of a recovery.
00:16:25.730 --> 00:16:26.610
I'll tell you why.
00:16:26.850 --> 00:16:29.889
Over 50,000 futures just in December.
00:16:30.050 --> 00:16:34.529
I didn't look at the March, the May, the July, the September, the December 27.
00:16:35.170 --> 00:16:39.170
50,000 contracts traded in the bottom penny.
00:16:39.250 --> 00:16:45.009
So from down 29 to down 30, 50,000 contracts traded in December corn.
00:16:45.090 --> 00:16:52.529
That most likely is an incredible amount of length that is out of this corn market.
00:16:52.690 --> 00:16:56.290
Coming into this week, maybe we had fun length of 360.
00:16:56.450 --> 00:17:03.170
We'll get commitment of traders here after the close, and Agble clients and AgBull subscribers will be sent that.
00:17:03.649 --> 00:17:07.170
And but that was as of Tuesday.
00:17:07.329 --> 00:17:11.250
So you take what we did here Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
00:17:11.409 --> 00:17:18.049
You come into next week commitment of traders, you're seeing an incredible amount of fund link that came out of this market.
00:17:18.289 --> 00:17:21.730
You're also take a note, write this down.
00:17:22.049 --> 00:17:23.809
What did the open interest do?
00:17:23.889 --> 00:17:26.689
We don't know that number yet, but look at open interest in corner.
00:17:26.929 --> 00:17:31.329
People still interested in being long corn futures or think of the other side.
00:17:31.490 --> 00:17:44.049
Flip your farmer hat over and say if you're an end user, for as scared as you were when we went from 440 to 540, we came and in two-thirds the way back all the way down to the 470 level.
00:17:44.209 --> 00:17:49.169
And the opportunities that were presented to both sides here in the last six weeks were just incredible.
00:17:49.250 --> 00:17:53.250
If you were long as a farmer, they give you a chance to get sold and get protected.
00:17:53.329 --> 00:18:01.169
And that's one of the positives I really want to talk about today is that I think an incredible amount of length came out of this market.
00:18:01.329 --> 00:18:03.889
I think farmers were forward sold, forward protected.
00:18:03.969 --> 00:18:04.689
Not all of them.
00:18:04.849 --> 00:18:07.409
There's someone watching this right now who's pissed off.
00:18:07.490 --> 00:18:13.009
There's someone watching this right now who's gonna cancel their subscription because I didn't know what the USDA report was.
00:18:13.089 --> 00:18:19.809
But I could tell you from the bottom of my heart, I know where we were at 1059 and 50 seconds.
00:18:19.889 --> 00:18:25.969
We were up five in corn, and we were, you know, that we had the potential of both sides.
00:18:26.849 --> 00:18:45.809
We were we were so high on the high end of the range that the very people who are criticized the most, which would be Stone X, and you and I and Jed would agree, of all the guests we've ever had on Ag Squawk, that young man from Stone X is incredible.
00:18:46.049 --> 00:18:52.929
And you've even said, Hey, you guys are coming out with these high numbers that aren't even near anywhere where the industry is.
00:18:53.089 --> 00:18:56.529
He's like, Those are our numbers, and they stuck to their guns.
00:18:56.929 --> 00:19:02.689
And in the end, they're like almost the exact same number the USDA number and the Stone.
00:19:03.169 --> 00:19:07.329
So why people disregard them, disrespect them, get angry, I'm not sure.
00:19:07.490 --> 00:19:13.169
And as far as all the other people in the industry, like Lucy, you got some explained into.
00:19:13.649 --> 00:19:21.969
I mean, there are big-time professional organizations that are off by 10 bushels per acre, and people pay them for this information.
00:19:22.209 --> 00:19:27.009
And I had the chance to jump on uh this week in agribusiness, and we filmed it before the report.
00:19:27.169 --> 00:19:31.969
And so I know I had to talk in the sense that we could be limit up, we could be limited.
00:19:32.049 --> 00:19:35.009
And what I said, and folks, if you get a chance to watch that, please do.
00:19:35.250 --> 00:19:37.730
We love those guys over there, they're good folks.
00:19:37.969 --> 00:19:45.169
But I said, all that matters as you're watching this weekend show is what bushels do you have and what is your basis?
00:19:45.490 --> 00:19:49.649
Bushels, basis, bins, get back to the basics.
00:19:49.889 --> 00:19:53.569
You have 18 months to sell a crop, not 18 minutes.
00:19:53.730 --> 00:19:57.649
In in my world, I'm down here at Nesvik today in Nashville.
00:19:57.889 --> 00:19:59.250
I mean, it got loud.
00:19:59.409 --> 00:20:01.329
You know that what that trading floor looks like.
00:20:01.409 --> 00:20:03.730
There was uh about 12 traders in today.
00:20:03.809 --> 00:20:04.689
It got loud.
00:20:04.769 --> 00:20:07.490
I heard someone pound the desk, I heard some swearing.
00:20:07.569 --> 00:20:13.169
I can't say on this show because I'd fire myself, but the which might not be a bad idea.
00:20:13.409 --> 00:20:27.169
But in the end, by the end of the day, as I get to go out in Nashville tonight and spend time with my family, I'm like, holy cow, soybeans rallied all the way back and we're up five cents on the day.
00:20:27.409 --> 00:20:34.129
Oh my god, soybean meal closed at the high of the day up nine dollars.
00:20:34.369 --> 00:20:36.449
Soybean oil was up.
00:20:36.769 --> 00:20:46.529
The stock market's having a good day, interest rates have calmed down, the world's not ending today, but in corn, it feels horrible.
00:20:46.769 --> 00:20:47.889
It just feels horrible.
00:20:47.969 --> 00:20:53.009
Now, if we would have closed limit down, Jed worked up the numbers before we went on the show.
00:20:53.169 --> 00:21:01.169
We looked at the 50-day moving average, 100-day moving average, and 200-day moving average, we are 15 to 20 cents below all those averages.
00:21:01.250 --> 00:21:07.809
So if you're a trend follower, one might have to take home that the trend in corn has changed.
00:21:07.969 --> 00:21:13.730
And I always find it interesting to go back after we have a big move like this and look at myself, right?
00:21:13.889 --> 00:21:22.609
We know the the organizations who moderate us and and come, you know, comply us, watch our videos, right?
00:21:23.649 --> 00:21:32.929
And when I had a chance to go on the cow guy several times, I just kept saying, Scott, I don't know how during harvest the funds can be a record length.
00:21:33.089 --> 00:21:37.809
The farmer has the bushels, not a record crop, but a doggone good crop, right?
00:21:38.129 --> 00:21:40.609
How are they all gonna hit the exit door?
00:21:40.929 --> 00:21:45.089
And we find out that when it's time to get out, they can't get out.
00:21:45.250 --> 00:21:53.250
And back to that reference of Dick Freimeyer from Iowa Grain, you want to trade with the guy who's screwed up, not be the guy screwed up.
00:21:53.329 --> 00:21:55.730
And I truly believe some people went broke today.
00:21:55.809 --> 00:22:03.169
I think there were traders who went broke, I think there were people who were so out of position and can get so over leveraged.
00:22:03.250 --> 00:22:08.609
And we have that pop up down there at the bottom talking about futures and options have risk, and Jed could pop that up.
00:22:09.089 --> 00:22:17.490
That disclaimer, but what you can do in futures and options is you can buy something and you only need 10% of the money.
00:22:17.569 --> 00:22:20.209
Well, corn had over a five-six percent move.
00:22:20.449 --> 00:22:29.569
So if you invested a hundred thousand dollars in corn today as a speculator and did it margined up, you could have had one of the worst days ever.
00:22:29.809 --> 00:22:33.409
You can get even more leveraged up by selling options.
00:22:33.490 --> 00:22:34.929
You could have sold puts.
00:22:35.089 --> 00:22:43.009
I went back and looked, and there were puts like just pick one, and there were puts worth two cents that all of a sudden became eight cent bid.
00:22:43.089 --> 00:22:46.449
And if you were short that put, you could have lost all your money and more.
00:22:46.529 --> 00:22:48.529
So the the risk here is so great.
00:22:48.609 --> 00:23:02.129
But when we talk about marketing grain or we talk about what are you guys at Agble Intel, really what we're talking about is managing risk and the combination of crop insurance and getting forward sold and buying back those bushels with options.
00:23:02.369 --> 00:23:10.049
If someone's got great sales, five dollars and above in corn futures, and they own a call that was worth 12 cents and now it's worth two.
00:23:10.369 --> 00:23:15.089
I'm not upset because when they deliver that corn here, they're going to get paid.
00:23:15.250 --> 00:23:23.490
The person who has the problem is the person who's holding old crop, maybe gambling for lack of a better word, long futures.
00:23:23.569 --> 00:23:30.849
You know, they own old crop, they're long futures, they own all this crop, and they start talking like this baby's gonna go up.
00:23:31.089 --> 00:23:33.329
This baby didn't go up, and you know what?
00:23:33.409 --> 00:23:39.329
I brought the red phone out today because I'm telling you, there's tremendous risk here.
00:23:39.569 --> 00:23:47.409
And I knew people who wanted to be short feeder cattle because they thought the corn number would be bullish and feeders would get creamed.
00:23:48.049 --> 00:23:53.329
No, feeders were up seven, eight, nine dollars at one point today.
00:23:53.490 --> 00:23:57.730
If you're a feeder and you're in the cattle industry, you had a damn good day.
00:23:57.889 --> 00:24:01.089
You get to buy corn an incredibly amount cheaper.
00:24:01.169 --> 00:24:03.969
Your cost of feed went down tremendously.
00:24:04.129 --> 00:24:16.289
And the product, uh, we had uh our own very own Carrie Artec, who does technical analysis, said if feeders got back up towards that 340 level, that yeah, from a chart standpoint, they need to be sold or hedged or protected.
00:24:16.449 --> 00:24:18.449
And we blew right through those numbers.
00:24:18.529 --> 00:24:25.809
And so people like Judd Sidwell and cattle ranchers have to be extremely happy with today's price action.
00:24:25.889 --> 00:24:28.129
And those are just some of the positives I've seen.
00:24:28.209 --> 00:24:29.809
I'm I'm not gonna leave here sad.
00:24:29.969 --> 00:24:32.049
I I will say my head's spinning.
00:24:32.449 --> 00:24:39.649
I have a headache, but only from the mass amount of confusion that unleashed at 11 o'clock, Davis.
00:24:39.809 --> 00:24:40.849
Stage is yours, my friend.
00:24:41.089 --> 00:24:41.809
Yeah, absolutely.
00:24:41.969 --> 00:24:47.169
Well, I guess I'll I'll throw it right back to you because I'm curious.
00:24:48.049 --> 00:24:54.369
I've heard and I've seen the charts look ugly, excuse me, but uh, but there's there's room here.
00:24:54.529 --> 00:24:56.049
Hold on to your hats, everybody.
00:24:56.129 --> 00:24:59.009
We're at 479 in the dece corn.
00:24:59.250 --> 00:25:05.730
I mean, there's there's risk down to what four four forty something, isn't there, Tommy?
00:25:05.809 --> 00:25:11.730
I mean, this this feels like a pretty okay day when you consider the level of risk that we're dealing with.
00:25:12.049 --> 00:25:12.289
Right.
00:25:12.369 --> 00:25:29.009
When you talk about whether it be corn futures or what crude oil's done in the past, what the stock market did during the 08 debacle or the COVID debacle or anything else, when we have debacles, some people call them black swans, they seem like it happens two, three days a week in the markets now.
00:25:29.169 --> 00:25:36.929
We have a Trump presidency and administration, and regardless of your opinions of this president, I quoted him today in the office.
00:25:37.089 --> 00:25:44.209
I said, Well, boys, two weeks ago we're sitting here and the markets exploded because President Trump said farmers are going to be very happy.
00:25:44.449 --> 00:25:46.929
I don't think they're happy today, Davis.
00:25:47.009 --> 00:26:07.730
And I think the calls to the USDA and the questioning of how the data is collected, the surveys that were produced, one of the big excuses we'll say by permables was last number we had a few days ago, a week, 10 days ago, that was only like that because the harvest was accelerated into Delta.
00:26:07.969 --> 00:26:11.089
Well, what line of BS are you giving people today?
00:26:11.250 --> 00:26:23.490
I mean, what the USDA today said was that even in a year that had major challenges in the growing season, watch out Kentucky, Tennessee, Southern states, eastern states.
00:26:23.730 --> 00:26:27.490
We know we have a problem in North Dakota, but that's a small growing area.
00:26:27.649 --> 00:26:30.849
Like a lot of my clients have a horrible yield.
00:26:31.169 --> 00:26:36.689
And if I start talking about how corn could go down to 440, they'll say that's not possible.
00:26:36.929 --> 00:26:39.649
Well, it is possible and it can happen.
00:26:39.730 --> 00:26:45.009
And you can't let one day knock out your whole risk strategy that you have during a year.
00:26:45.250 --> 00:26:57.169
Now, I have clients who, when corn rallied through$5 and we broke through what I call the pro farmer high where we gapped and went, on that last report, we filled that pro farmer gap.
00:26:57.329 --> 00:27:02.129
And I would imagine every gap we've had for a long time got filled today.
00:27:02.529 --> 00:27:05.329
And the there's another chance to buy this.
00:27:05.490 --> 00:27:15.009
If you sold too much grain too fast, old crop, new crop, and you want to own this tremendous opportunity to own back some of those bushels here today.
00:27:15.089 --> 00:27:22.609
But I tell you what, something funky is going on in this bean market because China came back from holiday last night.
00:27:22.769 --> 00:27:28.609
If you noticed the markets, if you took a peek, anyone, right at eight o'clock, corn went from down one to up three.
00:27:28.849 --> 00:27:35.569
Beans went from down three to up twelve right at eight o'clock when China came back from their holiday.
00:27:35.730 --> 00:27:37.649
And there's just a lot wrapped into this.
00:27:37.730 --> 00:27:39.250
Now I'm going to meet this weekend with Mr.
00:27:39.329 --> 00:27:40.209
Jim Wiesmeyer.
00:27:40.449 --> 00:27:42.209
We're going to do Wiesmeyer's perspectives.
00:27:42.289 --> 00:27:43.490
And a big thank you to Jim.
00:27:43.569 --> 00:27:47.569
Jim is now part of the Ag Bull team, and you'll be hearing a lot more from Jim.
00:27:47.649 --> 00:27:51.730
You'll have to be a paid subscriber because Jim's going to the pay side.
00:27:51.889 --> 00:27:54.609
But boy, that guy, the way he cranks out information.
00:27:54.849 --> 00:27:57.809
Matter of fact, I'm a subscriber of Paul Neefer's blog.
00:27:57.969 --> 00:28:01.089
And Paul must ask Jim, can I just quote your article?
00:28:01.329 --> 00:28:06.849
Because Paul Neefer released a paid-for article that was, I just want to thank my friend Jim.
00:28:06.929 --> 00:28:08.449
He did some digging into the numbers.
00:28:08.529 --> 00:28:10.289
And what was Jim's title?
00:28:10.529 --> 00:28:13.169
How did all go ahead and read what his title was.
00:28:13.490 --> 00:28:14.369
I don't think I grabbed the title.
00:28:14.449 --> 00:28:16.129
Here, let me pull up my email quick and I'll have it.
00:28:16.529 --> 00:28:22.289
Oh, I have right here Nebraska ear count jump raises questions in USGA report.
00:28:22.529 --> 00:28:25.490
The one before that is when he said, Let me see this.
00:28:25.649 --> 00:28:27.569
Oh, USGA finds corn.
00:28:27.809 --> 00:28:29.089
Nobody else could.
00:28:29.490 --> 00:28:32.849
October yield jump blindsides most of the trade.
00:28:33.169 --> 00:28:33.490
Right.
00:28:33.649 --> 00:28:36.449
We do have the it's it's good that we're doing this.
00:28:36.609 --> 00:28:41.889
Go ahead and go full screen on Davis or I I gotta look through my bifocals here at my phone.
00:28:42.129 --> 00:28:43.409
But I want to give a shout out.
00:28:43.569 --> 00:28:44.369
Can we do a shout out?
00:28:44.609 --> 00:28:45.250
Come on!
00:28:46.129 --> 00:28:46.929
Oh yeah.
00:28:47.250 --> 00:28:48.129
Grain stats.
00:28:48.449 --> 00:28:51.089
I am a subscriber of several services.
00:28:51.250 --> 00:28:54.049
Commitment of traders is out for the week.
00:28:54.209 --> 00:28:55.809
Corn took off 60,000.
00:28:55.889 --> 00:28:58.449
Now note this is just as of Tuesday.
00:28:58.609 --> 00:29:00.529
That number is going to be a lot different.
00:29:00.689 --> 00:29:00.849
Yeah.
00:29:01.009 --> 00:29:12.209
So I'm never, I've told you, I've told viewers, I've said it on national TV, I can't go to bed long corn when the funds are record long and the farmers come.
00:29:12.529 --> 00:29:15.089
It it felt like kissing your sister funny.
00:29:15.169 --> 00:29:17.009
It well, that ain't funny at all, right?
00:29:17.730 --> 00:29:19.569
Matter of fact, it's frowned upon.
00:29:20.209 --> 00:29:23.169
And uh let's look at the length here in beans.
00:29:23.250 --> 00:29:25.089
This was as of Tuesday.
00:29:25.329 --> 00:29:29.730
They have a nice length in beans, 251,000, 10,000 longs added.
00:29:29.889 --> 00:29:30.289
And you know what?
00:29:30.369 --> 00:29:32.449
Going home this weekend, they're not nervous.
00:29:32.689 --> 00:29:36.129
Big longs and soybean meal, and uh look at soybean oil.
00:29:36.209 --> 00:29:42.209
Uh soybean oil has a very small soybean oil has a net long position, also.
00:29:42.609 --> 00:29:46.209
It's meal that uh doesn't have that much of a position.
00:29:46.289 --> 00:29:51.169
So incredible length came off corn the last few weeks, a lot more came off in the last few hours.
00:29:51.329 --> 00:29:52.849
And I'm not go ahead.
00:29:53.089 --> 00:29:54.529
And I've I've been worried about that.
00:29:54.609 --> 00:30:02.289
I've asked a number of of really smart folks just you know how how tenuous is the position up there?
00:30:02.449 --> 00:30:06.929
How much how much of a nudge does it take to run some of those longs out?
00:30:07.089 --> 00:30:11.969
And I I think today that question was uh was answered with an exclamation point.
00:30:12.449 --> 00:30:16.209
Yeah, tremendous, tremendous price action today.
00:30:16.449 --> 00:30:22.849
And you know, if someone like me thinks corn's going up and I buy five futures or ten calls or whatever my unit is, right?
00:30:23.009 --> 00:30:27.490
Full disclosure, I went into this report 100% flat.
00:30:27.649 --> 00:30:29.730
I had no position, I had no bias.
00:30:29.889 --> 00:30:31.089
I could have put something on.
00:30:31.169 --> 00:30:37.169
I own a seat at the board of trade, and I just thought about what legendary brokers and commodity traders said.
00:30:37.250 --> 00:30:38.609
You want to trade with the guy screwed up.
00:30:38.689 --> 00:30:45.329
And I'm telling you, the opportunities to get in there and wiggle were there because someone was screwed up and people had to get out.
00:30:45.569 --> 00:30:47.649
Margin calls have to be made.
00:30:47.889 --> 00:30:49.409
And that's what happened today.
00:30:49.490 --> 00:30:51.009
The a lot of trading happened.
00:30:51.089 --> 00:30:59.089
I don't know if it was a record, but just in December futures alone, I think we traded 525,000 futures contracts.
00:30:59.169 --> 00:31:12.129
So this isn't like Oats where they trade 300 a day, these are hundreds of thousands, and upwards of almost a million contracts were thrown around between futures and options today, just in that one commodity corn.
00:31:12.289 --> 00:31:42.609
And just there's one saying, and it you hear it all the time, and people probably get here saying it, but the bull needs to be fed every single day, whether it's the stock market and the Nasdaq pulls off 10-15%, then all of a sudden NVIDIA and Michael Dell and this one and that one come out with great earnings and growth, and the stock market's definitely being fed by you know the NASDAQ, but the grain market had this big hope of China was gonna do something.
00:31:42.849 --> 00:31:48.529
And you know, a few weeks ago, that's when President Trump quoted farmers are gonna be real happy.
00:31:48.609 --> 00:31:52.209
And we all came in on Sunday night with, hey, where's the big announcement?
00:31:52.369 --> 00:31:59.409
Now, rumors were flying around, and we're in the media business, we're in the commodity brokerage business, information business.
00:32:00.049 --> 00:32:02.129
I can't tell you, and Google it, folks.
00:32:02.209 --> 00:32:03.169
Don't take my word for it.
00:32:03.329 --> 00:32:14.449
Google it, China buys corn, and you'll see video after video from word on the street, not not a reliable one, is that China's sniffing around for American corn.
00:32:14.689 --> 00:32:22.529
They may do that, but China is a phenomenal trader, and I think they'd much rather buy corn at 470 than 530, right?
00:32:22.689 --> 00:32:24.609
And they they're gonna have that chance.
00:32:24.769 --> 00:32:34.369
And so maybe, maybe they do put together a package, and everything in the administration is always three months out or after midterms or something else.
00:32:34.449 --> 00:32:38.769
But going home this weekend, crude oil is 92, your costs are high.
00:32:39.009 --> 00:32:42.929
The to produce a cost of a bushel of corn is still relatively high.
00:32:43.089 --> 00:32:48.289
Now, on the super double optimistic side, December 27 corn was only down six cents today.
00:32:48.369 --> 00:32:52.289
Yeah, and Jed said November 27 beans were up six.
00:32:52.609 --> 00:32:58.849
So if you went home and said, boy, I really missed my chance to sell beans, that's why I put out that Ag Bull Text alert.
00:32:59.089 --> 00:33:02.529
Soybeans are up on the day, I think at 1250 or 1255.
00:33:02.609 --> 00:33:05.409
I said, soybeans are up on the day.
00:33:05.730 --> 00:33:08.849
And yeah, you know, we're still getting quotes.
00:33:09.009 --> 00:33:13.730
Just text me and Trump strikes deal with Putin to supply Russian diesel to U.S.
00:33:14.049 --> 00:33:15.250
and uh global markets.
00:33:15.329 --> 00:33:17.089
I mean, the hits just keep playing.
00:33:17.250 --> 00:33:26.689
So where we go home, where you're watching this video, by the time we do Weesmeier's perspective on Saturday or Sunday and pump it out to all you subscribers, the world's gonna be a different place again.
00:33:26.769 --> 00:33:28.049
You gotta roll with the punches.
00:33:28.289 --> 00:33:28.849
Yeah, yeah.
00:33:29.169 --> 00:33:31.409
One day does not a market make.
00:33:31.569 --> 00:33:35.089
Let me ask you, I guess I can start asking this question now.
00:33:35.250 --> 00:33:43.569
If if the long's headed for the exits, at some point they're probably gonna want to come back in.
00:33:43.809 --> 00:33:51.409
Was this enough pressure on corn for them to say, you know what, we hit the release valve, the steam is out of the balloon, now we can get back in.
00:33:51.730 --> 00:34:00.209
It just feels like seasonally this isn't the right time to to do that and to pull the trigger and to to re-enter with some longs here.
00:34:00.369 --> 00:34:02.369
I wonder what your thoughts might be on that.
00:34:02.689 --> 00:34:18.049
Well, speaking of seasonals, I can't speak for all the funds, like who the funds, yeah, but seasonally, like people more research, who is a tremendous seasonal uh provider of charts and services and seasonal lows.
00:34:18.130 --> 00:34:29.730
And remember that time we talked about on the show uh voice from the tomb, you know, like with the instructions on how to make money and stuff, or seasonal levels to buy and sell is what it was.
00:34:30.130 --> 00:34:37.969
The coming into Columbus Day, seasonally soybeans tend to trade higher from here on out for a few months.
00:34:38.210 --> 00:34:45.170
Seasonally, the Friday after Thanksgiving is seasonally a bullish time in soybeans.
00:34:45.329 --> 00:34:55.170
And you know, someone like me who doesn't grow corn now got to buy corn under the cost of production of most of the viewers and listeners of this show, and this should piss them off.
00:34:55.329 --> 00:35:06.929
They should be, I don't think that's right for Tommy to own a seed at the border trade, do nothing all year, you know, wear a black Ag Bull shirt on the on the show and go buy corn under the cost of production.
00:35:07.009 --> 00:35:20.130
But to flip that around to like a cattle analogy, a few weeks ago when cattle were really cheap, I noticed some people bought cattle futures, cattle options, and they said, why raise the cattle when I could buy them$20 under break even?
00:35:20.369 --> 00:35:26.210
And I I noticed people bought cattle and said, I'm not gonna go to the auction and buy them, I'm gonna buy them on paper.
00:35:26.369 --> 00:35:28.049
At least I know what my risk is, right?
00:35:28.130 --> 00:35:30.849
I don't have to feed them, I could be home for lunch every day.
00:35:31.170 --> 00:35:35.009
So these markets get below cost production, above cost production.
00:35:35.250 --> 00:35:50.690
But just to note and just to reiterate, when the funds are record long and the markets moved up, you have to ask yourself several times a day, what amount of energy or catalyst is it gonna take to keep this market going up?
00:35:50.929 --> 00:35:57.809
And I now know the answer once again that we found out how they're gonna get out of this huge position.
00:35:57.969 --> 00:36:08.690
On the on the dead low, on an ugly Friday October crop report on a rainy fall day when there's hurricane weather going to hit the Midwest, that's how they're gonna get out.
00:36:08.769 --> 00:36:10.289
Yeah, horrible price.
00:36:10.369 --> 00:36:14.289
And that's why this is a game for professionals and it's not a game.
00:36:14.449 --> 00:36:16.929
Yeah, I don't like that word when people and I correct myself.
00:36:17.089 --> 00:36:18.289
This is not a game, folks.
00:36:18.369 --> 00:36:19.329
This is very real.
00:36:19.569 --> 00:36:27.009
These are money in your pocketbook, whether it's buying fuel low or getting corn hedge for animals, hogs, or something, or cattle.
00:36:27.250 --> 00:36:28.449
This is very real.
00:36:28.690 --> 00:36:30.929
And in the end, who are we gonna yell at?
00:36:31.009 --> 00:36:36.289
We're gonna yell at that the USDA that their number was wrong, and then we're gonna ask the government for a bailout.
00:36:36.449 --> 00:36:39.730
I mean, the we got to draw the line and take responsibility.
00:36:39.889 --> 00:36:44.769
Great traders don't blame other people, they blame themselves regardless of the scenario.
00:36:46.210 --> 00:36:50.369
I was we've spent a fair amount of time on corn and soybeans here.
00:36:50.449 --> 00:36:52.130
I want to take us up northward.
00:36:52.289 --> 00:36:54.289
I was talking to Randy Martinson.
00:36:54.449 --> 00:36:56.049
I don't know if you happened to catch the show.
00:36:56.210 --> 00:37:04.449
And by the way, you you suggested maybe we need to rename wheat from poverty grass to something else, and and I had suggested success turf.
00:37:04.610 --> 00:37:08.690
And I couldn't get Martinson to say success turf.
00:37:08.849 --> 00:37:15.809
He's he's stuck with poverty grass, and the export forecast here was not friendly.
00:37:16.049 --> 00:37:18.210
That surprised me, Tommy.
00:37:18.369 --> 00:37:20.529
Talk to our wheat growers out there.
00:37:20.690 --> 00:37:21.489
What's the story?
00:37:21.650 --> 00:37:23.569
No exports now, just no exports.
00:37:23.730 --> 00:37:26.130
The Black Sea thing doesn't mean anything to wheat exports.
00:37:26.369 --> 00:37:35.009
One would think, I mean, the Black Sea is still relatively closed, and there is wheat in Ukraine, there's wheat in Russia, but it's not shipping around the world.
00:37:35.170 --> 00:37:35.329
Yeah.
00:37:35.650 --> 00:37:37.489
We got the for sale light on over here.
00:37:37.650 --> 00:37:40.610
We're definitely have the for sale light on in corn.
00:37:40.769 --> 00:37:50.929
It'd be interesting to see that the headwind is what does it cost to take American bushels, whether it be corn, beans, wheat, sorghum, just pick it, right?
00:37:51.089 --> 00:37:53.809
Cotton, canola, pick your favorite commodity.
00:37:53.969 --> 00:37:58.449
You got to get it to the terminal, load it on a boat, ship it around the country, load it off.
00:37:58.529 --> 00:38:04.130
I mean, that cost is tremendous, and there's only X amount of dollars to budget at that.
00:38:04.210 --> 00:38:07.329
So we may feel cheap from a future standpoint.
00:38:07.409 --> 00:38:10.210
We may feel cheap from a uh cash standpoint.
00:38:10.369 --> 00:38:17.250
Speaking of cheap, thinking about what we did here in 470 corn, that puts some cash corn in the the poor basis areas.
00:38:17.409 --> 00:38:23.170
You can look at elevators in North Dakota, and I bet you they're posting 399 bid for harvest bushels today.
00:38:23.329 --> 00:38:25.730
I mean, that's how much we took off this market.
00:38:25.809 --> 00:38:31.009
So when someone gives you a chance, get out, you got to get it and deal with the results there.
00:38:31.170 --> 00:38:34.529
But to answer your wheat question, why aren't we exporting all this wheat?
00:38:34.690 --> 00:38:36.210
They're getting it from somewhere.
00:38:36.289 --> 00:38:39.569
Yeah, they're gonna they're gonna eat their breads and pastas and everything else.
00:38:39.809 --> 00:38:43.329
But I I I do think wheat has a good story moving forward.
00:38:43.409 --> 00:38:47.089
I still think corn could have a good story, it just wasn't today.
00:38:47.329 --> 00:38:50.449
So you're you're sticking with Success Turf rather than poverty grass.
00:38:50.610 --> 00:38:50.929
Is that right?
00:38:51.009 --> 00:38:52.210
Can I put you down for Success Turf?
00:38:52.449 --> 00:38:53.409
I like SuccessTurf.
00:38:53.489 --> 00:38:54.210
Yeah, that was a good one.
00:38:54.369 --> 00:38:57.730
Matter of fact, when you did that broadcasting, called it SuccessTurf.
00:38:57.809 --> 00:38:59.889
I had several people call, comment.
00:39:00.049 --> 00:39:03.409
Uh, if you have a comment on the show, go to the Agbo website, drop us a comment.
00:39:03.569 --> 00:39:04.369
We see them instantly.
00:39:04.449 --> 00:39:05.809
It dings on our phones.
00:39:05.969 --> 00:39:08.369
Sometimes some people say some nasty stuff, but you know what?
00:39:08.449 --> 00:39:09.969
I'm just gonna be nice, everyone.
00:39:10.130 --> 00:39:11.889
Yeah, they don't have to be nice.
00:39:12.049 --> 00:39:15.650
I mean, if you want to watch the show and comment negatively, you can.
00:39:15.809 --> 00:39:17.409
I mean, this is America, right?
00:39:17.650 --> 00:39:23.089
This is America Thanksgiving dinner where it's like, oh, Aunt Barb's over there, don't upset her.
00:39:23.170 --> 00:39:28.289
You don't want her to get Ajita because you're gonna talk politics and you know, who cares?
00:39:28.369 --> 00:39:29.329
You know, whatever.
00:39:29.489 --> 00:39:31.650
I mean, I uh it is what it is.
00:39:31.730 --> 00:39:37.329
These are real dollars flying around, and yeah, you gotta navigate the uh seas, and they're getting choppy.
00:39:37.489 --> 00:39:39.089
Well, and the frustration is real.
00:39:39.170 --> 00:39:45.089
It's you know, I if I have to say it, it's okay to be frustrated, to be a little bit concerned.
00:39:45.250 --> 00:39:51.569
And uh, if if you haven't got a plan in place already, Tommy, maybe we can just riff on this just a little bit.
00:39:51.809 --> 00:39:58.610
If you had a plan in place, you you might have been able to weather this and still be able to sleep tonight.
00:39:58.929 --> 00:40:01.170
Am I am I talking out my ear here?
00:40:01.409 --> 00:40:09.009
No, and I do think I really do believe that farmers are extremely forward-sold in soybeans, extremely forward sold and protected in corn.
00:40:09.170 --> 00:40:12.849
I think the people who got it in the keister more than anyone were the funds.
00:40:13.089 --> 00:40:15.889
The funds can make you, the funds can break you.
00:40:16.049 --> 00:40:17.889
The funds had a horrible day.
00:40:18.049 --> 00:40:20.929
I do think I have a sneaky suspicion.
00:40:21.170 --> 00:40:23.730
There were some large traders out there who had a bad day.
00:40:23.809 --> 00:40:34.610
I think there were some, I think some of the young brokers and analysts who went on the crop tour and and and noticed this bullish number got bullish and they never took off that bull hat.
00:40:34.690 --> 00:40:36.849
And they may be getting a call from the red phone today.
00:40:36.929 --> 00:40:37.409
I don't know.
00:40:37.569 --> 00:40:41.170
I only know what position I had, what position clients have.
00:40:41.329 --> 00:40:43.409
I didn't get any angry phone calls today.
00:40:43.489 --> 00:40:43.969
I got some.
00:40:44.130 --> 00:40:45.089
Are you kidding me?
00:40:45.489 --> 00:40:46.529
You've got it kidding me.
00:40:46.690 --> 00:40:47.329
Is this real?
00:40:47.489 --> 00:40:54.289
Yeah, but by the end of the day, with soybean meal on the highs, soybean on the highs, Nove 27 on the highs, D27 corn.
00:40:54.449 --> 00:41:00.849
If I told you, hey everyone, Tommy Grossoffi, AgBill Media, AgBill Trading, D 27 corns down seven cents, would you be upset?
00:41:00.929 --> 00:41:02.210
No, it's just a normal day.
00:41:02.289 --> 00:41:07.489
Right, it's the front end where all the length is hanging out, had an extremely bad day.
00:41:07.730 --> 00:41:15.170
So personally, I like accumulating length when the funds are short because at some point they have to get out of that and it creates a roar.
00:41:15.409 --> 00:41:21.089
And I don't like hanging out the party, and like my dad said, nothing good happens after midnight.
00:41:21.170 --> 00:41:29.569
Well, we spend a lot of times out at 1112-1 at night here with corn at 525 and wondering how the heck are they gonna get out of it?
00:41:29.650 --> 00:41:33.569
Now we know the answer at 472 on a Friday, limit down.
00:41:33.730 --> 00:41:34.929
Yeah, yeah.
00:41:36.130 --> 00:41:40.369
On another note, you still got any of them Egg Bowl Bluetooth speakers around there?
00:41:40.610 --> 00:41:41.650
You still got some in the box?
00:41:41.809 --> 00:41:42.849
There's some I do, I do.
00:41:42.929 --> 00:41:51.730
They're supposed to show up, and if if you subscribe and pay for a year, as you often say on the show, we have a beautiful Bluetooth speaker where you can listen to this show, your other shows.
00:41:51.809 --> 00:41:55.809
Of course, we encourage you keep the old transistor radio up there.
00:41:55.889 --> 00:41:58.529
We have a lot of friends in AM radio, FM radio.
00:41:59.569 --> 00:42:03.250
I like the way our friend Jesse Allen does it, where you could listen to him on the radio.
00:42:03.409 --> 00:42:06.210
If you miss the radio, you could catch the podcast.
00:42:06.449 --> 00:42:09.569
And he's probably listening right now because he listens to the show.
00:42:09.809 --> 00:42:10.690
Should we give him a shout-out?
00:42:10.849 --> 00:42:11.650
Should we give him a shout out?
00:42:11.809 --> 00:42:12.369
Shout out to Jesse.
00:42:12.690 --> 00:42:13.569
Shout out to Jesse Allen.
00:42:15.489 --> 00:42:16.849
Shout out's really loud today.
00:42:16.929 --> 00:42:17.809
Does that seem loud to you?
00:42:17.969 --> 00:42:18.769
Yeah, it's a little loud.
00:42:19.969 --> 00:42:22.449
I noticed you changed your guitar, a green one.
00:42:22.529 --> 00:42:25.009
What what type of history does that guitar have?
00:42:25.250 --> 00:42:26.210
I got a green one here.
00:42:26.369 --> 00:42:32.210
You know, I had a blue one hanging there, but it just doesn't sound quite as good coming through the interweb machine.
00:42:32.449 --> 00:42:35.809
So I I went back to the agricaster of AG.
00:42:36.449 --> 00:42:39.489
Nothing fancy, nothing fancy, just a fender, you know.
00:42:39.650 --> 00:42:43.809
But I really do I love that guitar and feels good, you know.
00:42:43.889 --> 00:42:46.289
You got to go with with what feels good.
00:42:46.529 --> 00:42:52.449
Here's the thing: we're not saying we're trying to replace AM radio or that we believe AM radio has no place.
00:42:52.610 --> 00:42:55.489
AM radio has the same place that it always has.
00:42:55.650 --> 00:43:05.569
In fact, I was reaching out to, I don't know if he if he watches the program or not, an old friend from WRDN in Durand, Wisconsin, Brian Winnickens.
00:43:06.130 --> 00:43:07.569
W R D N.
00:43:07.809 --> 00:43:12.610
If anybody from Wisconsin is up there, if you know Brian Winnikens, tell him I'm trying to get a hold of him.
00:43:12.769 --> 00:43:16.849
Tell him to check his email because I'd I'd love to talk to him a little bit.
00:43:17.009 --> 00:43:18.210
There's room, baby.
00:43:18.369 --> 00:43:24.529
You can put you can keep your AM radio and stay in touch with all the things that are important to you on there.
00:43:25.009 --> 00:43:36.769
The beauty part of our show, of Jed's show in the morning, of our content for uh paid subscribers, of all the content on the interwebs, is you can listen to it whenever you want to.
00:43:36.929 --> 00:43:42.690
You gotta you gotta run inside, you gotta run behind a tree, you gotta fill up a bucket full of water, you can push pause.
00:43:43.409 --> 00:43:46.610
And then when you're done, you just start it up again and you didn't miss anything.
00:43:46.849 --> 00:43:49.009
Or maybe you th maybe you're watching it.
00:43:49.170 --> 00:43:50.289
What did Tommy say?
00:43:50.449 --> 00:43:51.409
That can't be right.
00:43:51.569 --> 00:43:54.529
You just scroll it back a little bit.
00:43:54.690 --> 00:43:56.529
It's a it's a beautiful thing.
00:43:56.769 --> 00:44:00.769
And really, you you gotta have gotta have a Bluetooth speaker of some kind.
00:44:00.929 --> 00:44:03.650
And I think that that has every place next week.
00:44:03.730 --> 00:44:04.449
We will display.
00:44:04.690 --> 00:44:06.210
I I haven't seen it in person.
00:44:06.369 --> 00:44:08.130
I helped design it, I picked out the speaker.
00:44:08.210 --> 00:44:10.529
You can Shocked it wasn't made in the USA.
00:44:10.849 --> 00:44:13.650
Uh, if you could find a speaker made in the USA, good luck with that.
00:44:13.809 --> 00:44:17.250
Yeah, just to get my guitar was made in Mexico in Ensenada.
00:44:17.329 --> 00:44:17.969
So there you go.
00:44:19.089 --> 00:44:20.769
A couple other things I was thinking of.
00:44:20.929 --> 00:44:23.730
You can also keep your Verizon ATT phone.
00:44:23.889 --> 00:44:27.009
Yeah, you're now going to be able to get a Starlink phone here in the next few years.
00:44:27.089 --> 00:44:31.250
So technology's moving fast, whether you decide to move with it or without it.
00:44:31.329 --> 00:44:32.529
You know, that's up to you.
00:44:32.769 --> 00:44:40.849
I have a friend and client who texts me all these stories about AI and data centers in Texas, and he wants to be on the show.
00:44:40.929 --> 00:44:41.489
We'll have him on.
00:44:41.569 --> 00:44:42.849
He wants to be on cow guy.
00:44:43.009 --> 00:44:48.529
He sent me a chain link thing, and he's like, Tell Scott the Cow Guy this, tell Scott the Cow Guy that.
00:44:48.610 --> 00:44:51.329
I go, here, here's his cell phone, his his email.
00:44:51.569 --> 00:44:52.610
Tell him yourself.
00:44:52.769 --> 00:44:57.329
Like, if you want to get out there, start your own podcast, get out there and tell people.
00:44:57.409 --> 00:45:07.329
But one thing I did want to talk about before we go is there's a group of people on TikTok who have been making videos claiming the corn's not there, it's a disaster.
00:45:07.489 --> 00:45:09.569
Yeah, you'll see it, they'll prove it to you.
00:45:10.049 --> 00:45:24.449
I mean, I don't know if they put out like if TikTok has like a you know how like on X, if someone says something crazy, X will actually put a disclaimer and a note under and saying this picture is made by AI, it's not real.
00:45:24.610 --> 00:45:36.849
But I mean, folks, you got to be careful surfing the internet and watching these influencers who aren't brokers, aren't analysts, have no professionalism to the art of trading or the art of war.
00:45:37.009 --> 00:45:41.409
And maybe in their particular field the the corn isn't there.
00:45:41.489 --> 00:45:53.170
But this is the same group of influencers who actually got hundreds of house moms to say, why are farmers chopping down their soybeans or cutting them with their lawnmowers and then they were paid?
00:45:53.329 --> 00:46:01.009
I mean, a group of farmers got together and said, let's just go cut like a little section of our field and say the government paid me$500 an acre to do this.
00:46:01.250 --> 00:46:03.489
I saw that there was an uproar.
00:46:03.569 --> 00:46:10.690
And I know these guys, they're hilarious, but they're they're David Chappelle's hilarious too, but this isn't professional.
00:46:10.849 --> 00:46:22.610
And so if you're out there surfing the web and you got some line of BS and you bought off on it and you had 200,000 bushels of corn to sell and you didn't sell it because something you sold on you saw on TikTok, you got what you paid for, brother.
00:46:22.690 --> 00:46:28.449
You got a headache, and maybe you think it's cool to hang out with these guys, but it ain't that cool.
00:46:28.690 --> 00:46:30.769
Grain of salt, grain of salt.
00:46:31.730 --> 00:46:38.049
Before we start heading for the door, by the way, I confirmed I don't know if you caught yesterday's program or not, but I did have a couple of Minnesota guys.
00:46:38.289 --> 00:46:43.409
And I don't know if they were upset when I asked them about the Minnesota goodbye, but I like the Minnesota goodbye.
00:46:43.650 --> 00:46:45.409
In fact, my father-in-law is from St.
00:46:45.650 --> 00:46:46.130
Paul.
00:46:46.610 --> 00:46:49.569
He he is Minnesota Goodbye Extreme.
00:46:49.730 --> 00:46:51.889
We're gonna begin the Minnesota goodbye.
00:46:52.130 --> 00:46:52.929
There's terrain water.
00:46:53.170 --> 00:46:53.889
I like the Irish goodbye.
00:46:54.049 --> 00:46:54.529
Not weather yet.
00:46:54.610 --> 00:46:55.329
Not weather quite yet.
00:46:55.730 --> 00:46:56.369
Irish goodbye.
00:46:56.529 --> 00:46:57.489
The Irish goodbye?
00:46:57.650 --> 00:46:57.889
Yeah.
00:46:57.969 --> 00:46:58.289
Yeah, yeah.
00:46:58.690 --> 00:47:01.329
Jenster's seen me pull a couple of those.
00:47:02.289 --> 00:47:04.529
Well, I want to get a little one this week.
00:47:04.849 --> 00:47:11.170
Before we get to the weather, I want to let's let's let's talk bonds just a little bit.
00:47:11.329 --> 00:47:14.769
Yeah, it's a world I know zero about, Tommy.
00:47:14.849 --> 00:47:17.009
So I lean into your strength, your experience.
00:47:17.170 --> 00:47:18.849
You started trading bonds, didn't you?
00:47:18.929 --> 00:47:20.210
Isn't that where you started in the biz?
00:47:20.690 --> 00:47:21.329
Yeah, yeah.
00:47:21.409 --> 00:47:25.489
I started as a clerk in the uh bond room in 1990.
00:47:25.569 --> 00:47:30.449
I also actually started as a clerk in the grain room, but shortly after moved to the bond room.
00:47:30.529 --> 00:47:33.730
But you you know more about bonds than you think.
00:47:34.049 --> 00:47:38.210
Because if you have a mortgage, someone issued a bond against that.
00:47:38.289 --> 00:47:44.529
So if you owe a little money on your beautiful home out there, which a lot of us do, you know what that rate is, right?
00:47:44.610 --> 00:47:46.289
That's the bond market that determines it.
00:47:46.369 --> 00:47:47.889
You may say, We're never selling this house.
00:47:47.969 --> 00:47:54.769
I have a little mortgage locked in at 3%, no way of selling this to buy a home that costs twice as much as an interest rate that's doubled.
00:47:55.009 --> 00:47:56.769
You know more about bonds than you think.
00:47:56.929 --> 00:48:01.489
You said you and your your little lady were thinking about buying a vehicle a few weeks ago.
00:48:01.730 --> 00:48:03.809
You might have financed some of that, right?
00:48:03.969 --> 00:48:06.849
And it there's no zero percent financing in vehicles.
00:48:06.929 --> 00:48:11.730
If there is, note they're charging you too much on the front end of the vehicle.
00:48:11.889 --> 00:48:16.289
You know, if you go into a car dealership and they say, What do you want to be, what do you want your payment to be?
00:48:16.769 --> 00:48:18.690
I've never seen a bigger gotcha question.
00:48:18.769 --> 00:48:20.849
I want it to be$500 a month.
00:48:21.009 --> 00:48:25.969
Okay, we can get you a mortgage on your pickup for nine years, they'll get it to$500.
00:48:26.369 --> 00:48:34.690
So anyone who has a home, anyone who buys a vehicle, anyone who's ever saved money or spent money, put money on a credit card, is tied to interest rates.
00:48:34.769 --> 00:48:47.889
And in the world of agriculture, there is huge money borrowed to buy land, to buy machinery, financed to buy fertilizer and chemicals and all the way down the road.
00:48:47.969 --> 00:48:51.569
And then there's people who own the land who want a return on that.
00:48:51.730 --> 00:48:57.009
They say, I own this piece of Iowa farm ground, it's trading at$15,000 an acre.
00:48:57.170 --> 00:48:58.769
I want a return on my money.
00:48:58.929 --> 00:49:01.089
That's what makes cash rents elevated.
00:49:01.329 --> 00:49:08.610
If you're ultra conservative, you could just put a money, you can go to your local CD, you can go to your local bank or credit union, put money in a CD.
00:49:08.769 --> 00:49:10.289
That's the short end of the bond.
00:49:10.369 --> 00:49:25.889
But what got a little out of control this week, going back to your bond question, was 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year interest rates, not only in America, but Japan and France of all places, they had a runaway train in the bond market, and that really, really caught people's attention.
00:49:26.049 --> 00:49:36.610
So when I tell you going home, I feel a little better that the bond market calmed down, it was lower several times this week and rallied back, and interest rates are starting to stabilize.
00:49:36.849 --> 00:49:38.769
You want to talk about a headwind.
00:49:39.409 --> 00:49:48.610
The high diesel, the high interest rates, and then the combination of a market going down is a uh serious problem for agriculture.
00:49:48.769 --> 00:49:59.089
And so some of the biggest headwinds we had coming into October, again, I'm beating a dead horse was hey folks, be careful here because we're gonna establish crop insurance levels.
00:49:59.170 --> 00:50:05.089
And in your mind, you think they're higher, and they may stay higher in soybeans for the month of October.
00:50:05.170 --> 00:50:14.449
But the as far as I could tell, for the month of October, we're gonna have a much lower final price on crop insurance here, and that that affects your money.
00:50:14.690 --> 00:50:18.289
So everyone's involved in finance and interest rates, whether you choose to or not.
00:50:18.449 --> 00:50:19.089
You you actually are.
00:50:19.170 --> 00:50:23.250
If you have a checking account, a savings account, a car, a home, you're a bond trader.
00:50:24.130 --> 00:50:24.769
Interesting.
00:50:24.929 --> 00:50:25.329
Interesting.
00:50:25.489 --> 00:50:26.049
All right.
00:50:26.210 --> 00:50:33.089
Uh it's funny that you that you brought up Stone X because I was going back and forth with Mike Castle.
00:50:33.329 --> 00:50:35.569
Just great guy just the other day.
00:50:35.730 --> 00:50:36.929
Got him scheduled for Monday.
00:50:37.089 --> 00:50:38.610
The end edition.
00:50:38.690 --> 00:50:39.170
No kidding.
00:50:39.409 --> 00:50:39.969
2 p.m.
00:50:40.130 --> 00:50:40.610
Central Time.
00:50:40.690 --> 00:50:42.289
We'll be recording with Mike Castle.
00:50:42.449 --> 00:50:51.329
And the the funny thing was, and maybe we can kind of close on this and go into phase two of the Minnesota goodbye and talk a little bit of weather, but phase two.
00:50:51.569 --> 00:50:53.329
That means we missed the phase one train.
00:50:53.569 --> 00:50:54.849
No, no, this was phase one.
00:50:55.009 --> 00:50:56.369
This was phase one right here.
00:50:56.449 --> 00:50:58.369
We're we're finishing up phase one.
00:50:58.610 --> 00:50:59.650
I emailed Mike.
00:50:59.730 --> 00:51:01.089
I'm like, hey, are you available?
00:51:01.250 --> 00:51:03.809
You know, such and such a date, whatever we'd like to do this time.
00:51:03.889 --> 00:51:09.409
And he uh very enthusiastically, very generously offered up his time on Monday afternoon.
00:51:09.650 --> 00:51:13.009
And so I replied, hey, great, glad to hear it.
00:51:13.170 --> 00:51:17.250
Hopefully the report gives us nothing to talk about.
00:51:17.489 --> 00:51:22.690
And his response was, yeah, it'd be nice to get a break for once on this WASDI here.
00:51:23.089 --> 00:51:28.690
Why don't we use that as a platform for you to kind of give us some closing thoughts on these reports?
00:51:28.849 --> 00:51:36.130
Maybe you need to go back and hit a base or two again, real quick, but we're gonna we're gonna shut down this portion of the conversation.
00:51:36.449 --> 00:51:39.089
Mike and I have a lot to talk about on Monday, don't we?
00:51:39.409 --> 00:51:41.089
We will do a deep dive of the numbers.
00:51:41.250 --> 00:51:45.969
I would love to see what Brian would think about the numbers, your dear friend Brian.
00:51:46.130 --> 00:51:47.809
And uh Brian Grady, yeah.
00:51:48.049 --> 00:51:48.289
The best.
00:51:48.529 --> 00:51:50.769
I mean, I I I listen to his videos.
00:51:50.929 --> 00:51:59.569
We produce videos, I listen to Brian's videos because I respect his opinion so much, and it could actually sway how I'm thinking or if I'm thinking about something wrong.
00:51:59.969 --> 00:52:14.049
Overall, in review, go back and watch tapes of people like myself, others, and find the person who was calling for the$650,$7 corn and say, I'm a little, you know, go to the extremes.
00:52:14.210 --> 00:52:17.489
If there was someone calling for$7 corn, say, I can't listen that.
00:52:17.569 --> 00:52:19.009
That's that that didn't happen.
00:52:19.089 --> 00:52:19.730
That hurt me.
00:52:19.969 --> 00:52:22.049
There was someone calling for crazy low prices.
00:52:22.289 --> 00:52:23.569
I'll just flat out say it.
00:52:23.650 --> 00:52:31.009
I was watching the weekend shows last weekend, and I think uh a gal who's heavily respected, Sue Martin.
00:52:31.250 --> 00:52:36.130
I think she called for$16 beans and six dollar corn, Sue.
00:52:36.610 --> 00:52:41.650
I don't know where we go to pick up our check, but that that's a bold move there, Copper.
00:52:41.730 --> 00:52:50.369
I mean, I don't know how much grain she's long or if she trades futures and options, but you go on national TV on a show like Market to Market and post something like that, okay.
00:52:50.690 --> 00:52:51.170
That's bold.
00:52:51.809 --> 00:52:52.929
That's bold, right?
00:52:53.009 --> 00:52:54.210
Maybe she's still right.
00:52:54.369 --> 00:52:56.449
I've seen it happen before.
00:52:56.690 --> 00:53:05.009
Some of the greatest bull markets come out of bear markets, but if you don't put a date and time on, I think the market's going well, why would I do that?
00:53:05.089 --> 00:53:06.289
I wouldn't do that on this show.
00:53:06.449 --> 00:53:09.329
I flat out told you I went in the report flat, right?
00:53:09.489 --> 00:53:13.009
Because I didn't have an opinion and I didn't want to get messed up.
00:53:13.170 --> 00:53:18.130
And so when you watch the national shows, I'm proud of the show I did this week in Agribusiness.
00:53:18.210 --> 00:53:24.210
And I said, all that matters right now, come in the harvest is what bushels do you have and what is your basis?
00:53:24.369 --> 00:53:26.449
And what can you store in your bins?
00:53:26.610 --> 00:53:28.289
How do you need the cash flow?
00:53:28.449 --> 00:53:34.049
And I said, caution, folks, interest rates are rising and diesel fuel still high.
00:53:34.210 --> 00:53:38.929
Those are going to be two incredibly big headwinds in agriculture.
00:53:40.449 --> 00:53:45.489
What's uh I know you're you're down in uh music city, USA today.
00:53:50.769 --> 00:53:52.049
Got that Friday feeling.
00:53:52.130 --> 00:53:52.529
I know you do.
00:53:52.690 --> 00:53:54.929
I'm wearing my uh my Layla's t-shirt.
00:53:55.009 --> 00:53:55.809
I don't know if you can tell or not.
00:53:56.049 --> 00:53:56.690
Yeah, Layla's.
00:53:56.769 --> 00:53:59.009
Yeah, I might uh frequent that place tonight.
00:53:59.250 --> 00:54:01.969
Well, I've I've got the one t-shirt, but they have several designs.
00:54:02.049 --> 00:54:07.730
So if you happen to get a couple of pops of wine in you and feel like feel like it, I'm an XL.
00:54:07.889 --> 00:54:10.049
Extra large will do me do me just fine.
00:54:10.210 --> 00:54:12.369
Anything but pink would be great.
00:54:12.610 --> 00:54:13.329
Would be great.
00:54:14.130 --> 00:54:17.969
What uh when you look out the window there, I know you've got windows, you may have them blacked out.
00:54:18.049 --> 00:54:19.650
Your lighting looks fantastic.
00:54:19.809 --> 00:54:20.130
Thank you.
00:54:20.289 --> 00:54:22.769
Like there's there's there's no easy way to do that.
00:54:22.849 --> 00:54:31.809
But if you were gonna look out your window there in Nashville, you're high up on the ninth floor at uh at your podcast studio there in Nashville.
00:54:31.969 --> 00:54:33.409
What's the weather like outside?
00:54:33.650 --> 00:54:37.809
There's a little cloudy and haze, those are those storms whipping up from the south.
00:54:37.889 --> 00:54:47.969
They say that storm down in the south, that's all those purplish, pinkish colors there, that that storm just hit max intensity and should start to calm down.
00:54:48.369 --> 00:54:51.809
On the agenda, we were supposed to tailgate at Vanderbilt tomorrow.
00:54:51.969 --> 00:54:55.170
And I think Vanderbilt's playing Old Miss, I believe.
00:54:55.569 --> 00:54:59.889
And uh, it's supposed to rain all day long in Nashville.
00:55:00.049 --> 00:55:07.809
Matter of fact, Greg Solberg uh sent clients and and brokers alert yesterday saying flash flood watches in Nashville.
00:55:07.889 --> 00:55:09.489
So moisture's coming up.
00:55:09.730 --> 00:55:12.369
Will that mess with the markets here in the next week?
00:55:12.529 --> 00:55:17.409
And could it create more harvest delays and uh quality problems?
00:55:17.569 --> 00:55:19.489
I will say one last thing before I go.
00:55:19.969 --> 00:55:22.929
The USDA told us what they thought the final yield was.
00:55:23.089 --> 00:55:25.809
They didn't say anything on the quality of that yield.
00:55:25.969 --> 00:55:29.250
So maybe maybe Sue's right.
00:55:29.409 --> 00:55:32.289
Sue, if you're out there, hit us up on the blog.
00:55:32.369 --> 00:55:35.009
I'd love to have a conversation with you.
00:55:35.489 --> 00:55:39.250
Well, here in KC, we're looking at 86 degrees and sunny.
00:55:39.329 --> 00:55:47.969
It's gonna be mid to high 80s, looks like until oh, Tuesday or Wednesday, where some rain moves in and then she breaks for us, and then we're down into the 50s.
00:55:48.049 --> 00:55:52.289
High's 53 a week from Saturday here in Kansas City.
00:55:52.369 --> 00:55:53.809
I'm kind of looking forward to that.
00:55:53.969 --> 00:55:59.969
The National Weather Service is still watching Hurricane Isaias, expected to make landfall along the U.S.
00:56:00.130 --> 00:56:02.369
Northern Gulf Coast late Friday, early Saturday.
00:56:02.529 --> 00:56:08.610
Life-threatening storm surges expected along the coast with damaging wind gusts extending well inland.
00:56:08.690 --> 00:56:09.969
Tommy, you travel a bit.
00:56:10.130 --> 00:56:14.210
I've been down to the Redneck Riviera, just south of Mobile, down to Gulf Shores, Alabama.
00:56:14.369 --> 00:56:15.009
You've been down there?
00:56:15.409 --> 00:56:17.329
Yeah, I've been to the uh Florida Bama.
00:56:17.650 --> 00:56:26.529
They have uh church there on Sunday, and then they start sugar serving drinks there right after and uh beautiful, beautiful white beaches and have friends down there.
00:56:26.690 --> 00:56:28.289
And yeah, just incredible.
00:56:28.369 --> 00:56:32.049
But you know, buckle up buttercup because they got some bad weather coming in right now.
00:56:32.289 --> 00:56:38.130
Well, I spent a a uh New Year's that I actually remember down in Pensacola one year.
00:56:38.289 --> 00:56:41.569
And just beautiful celebration they put on right downtown.
00:56:41.650 --> 00:56:42.130
It was awesome.
00:56:42.369 --> 00:56:45.009
Were you at the Top Gun Academy down there with Tom Cruise and the boys?
00:56:45.250 --> 00:56:46.130
Not at the Top Gun.
00:56:46.210 --> 00:56:50.610
No, they uh I uh I've abused my privileges at the Top Gun Academy.
00:56:50.690 --> 00:56:52.529
I mean, you think Tom Cruise came in low.
00:56:52.610 --> 00:56:55.650
I said, hold my sparkling water.
00:56:55.809 --> 00:56:56.130
Watch this.
00:56:57.489 --> 00:56:58.529
Yeah, below deck.
00:56:58.690 --> 00:57:02.130
Areas of heavy rainfall forecast throughout much of the southeastern United States.
00:57:02.289 --> 00:57:08.049
The remnants of Rachel will bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the southwest this weekend.
00:57:08.210 --> 00:57:19.489
Mostly clear skies, possible exception of far eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois with seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures expected for most of farm country.
00:57:19.809 --> 00:57:27.809
Phase three of the Minnesota Goodbye begins now, according to popculture madness.com.
00:57:27.969 --> 00:57:30.529
This may be mildly interesting to you, Tommy.
00:57:31.009 --> 00:57:39.889
1767 surveying for the Mason Dixon line separating Maryland and Pennsylvania was completed.
00:57:40.289 --> 00:57:43.250
Here's something from your old stomping grounds in Chicago.
00:57:43.329 --> 00:57:58.289
In 1919, on this date, October 9, the Cincinnati Reds won the World Series, and eight White Sox players were later accused of intentionally losing games in exchange for money from gamblers.
00:57:58.449 --> 00:57:59.809
Some shady business there.
00:58:01.009 --> 00:58:04.929
And in 1954, maybe you remember the show uh Quantum Leap.
00:58:05.089 --> 00:58:08.210
That hits us right in the gut slot of TV time.
00:58:08.529 --> 00:58:13.250
It's the birthday of Scott Bakula, American actor, 1954.
00:58:13.409 --> 00:58:15.569
And hey, while I've got you here, you know what?
00:58:15.730 --> 00:58:16.289
Stand by.
00:58:16.449 --> 00:58:20.529
Stand by oh yeah.
00:58:21.409 --> 00:58:23.489
Let's just do just a little bit more guitar.
00:58:23.569 --> 00:58:24.929
And I mentioned that might as well.
00:58:25.009 --> 00:58:26.690
If we're gonna hit an hour on the show, we gotta go.
00:58:26.849 --> 00:58:28.369
We're gonna hit we're coming up on it.
00:58:28.610 --> 00:58:29.089
Poor Jed.
00:58:29.569 --> 00:58:30.449
Oh, he'll be fine.
00:58:30.529 --> 00:58:31.089
He'll be fine.
00:58:31.170 --> 00:58:31.969
He's a trooper.
00:58:32.449 --> 00:58:39.089
Here's the thing I mentioned that yesterday from the Beatles was the number one hit in 1965.
00:58:39.329 --> 00:58:39.969
Today.
00:58:40.449 --> 00:58:42.610
Are you gonna play Here Comes the Sun?
00:58:42.929 --> 00:58:44.369
Uh no, I am not.
00:58:44.529 --> 00:58:48.210
I'm gonna play you a different one, and I want you to try and name the tune.
00:58:48.769 --> 00:58:52.449
This one was the number one hit in 1961.
00:58:52.610 --> 00:58:53.329
Are you ready?
00:58:53.489 --> 00:58:54.449
I'm ready, Freddie.
00:58:54.610 --> 00:58:55.489
It goes like this.
00:59:03.170 --> 00:59:04.210
Hit the road, Jack.
00:59:04.369 --> 00:59:04.929
Don't come back.
00:59:05.489 --> 00:59:06.769
It is hit the road, Jack.
00:59:07.009 --> 00:59:09.730
Don't you come back no more, no more.
00:59:10.610 --> 00:59:12.130
Hit the road, Jack.
00:59:12.369 --> 00:59:14.769
And don't you come back no more.
00:59:15.969 --> 00:59:17.329
What'd you say?
00:59:18.369 --> 00:59:21.809
This this day in 1961, the number one hit.
00:59:21.969 --> 00:59:24.929
And then just a few years later, went straight to the Beatles yesterday.
00:59:25.089 --> 00:59:27.889
Ray Charles hit the road, Jack.
00:59:28.049 --> 00:59:31.409
And speaking of hit the road, how do you like that for a segue?
00:59:31.569 --> 00:59:32.529
That's our out.
00:59:32.690 --> 00:59:35.089
Me and Tommy are gonna do exactly just that.
00:59:35.250 --> 00:59:37.489
Thank you so much for uh for watching.
00:59:37.650 --> 00:59:41.489
Next week, as I said, I've got Mike Castle from Stonex coming up on Monday.
00:59:41.650 --> 00:59:45.889
Wednesday, I've got uh I've got Brian Gilbert, South Dakota bankist.
00:59:46.049 --> 00:59:50.929
He's uh gonna talk some finance with us on the 15th, Thursday.
00:59:51.170 --> 00:59:59.409
I'm trying to line up a little bit of a combine cab conversation with our friend Ted Hamer.
00:59:59.489 --> 01:00:03.969
He was with us, uh, I believe it was our first week of Ag Squawk in the afternoon.
01:00:04.130 --> 01:00:09.009
Hamer's agreed to try and get the phone do hickey to work in the Combine Cab.
01:00:09.170 --> 01:00:10.610
We'll look forward to that.
01:00:10.849 --> 01:00:14.449
So uh yeah, let me just thank our sponsor, Trade the News.
01:00:14.610 --> 01:00:19.809
We use TradeThe News to keep us informed and on top of the news every single day.
01:00:19.969 --> 01:00:21.889
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And of course, if you haven't had a chance, please don't hesitate to visit AgBull.com and check out all the lavish premium services we've got for you.
01:00:33.730 --> 01:00:43.489
As Tommy said, we've still got some Bluetooth speakers around that we would be happy to send you in exchange for a one-year subscription, which also includes two months free.
01:00:43.730 --> 01:00:47.730
250 big ones for a one-year subscription or take it slow.
01:00:47.969 --> 01:00:50.210
Take it slow,$25 a month.
01:00:50.289 --> 01:00:51.409
That's fine by us.
01:00:51.569 --> 01:00:54.849
Great information that uh that soon you will learn.
01:00:55.089 --> 01:00:56.289
You just can't live without.
01:00:56.369 --> 01:00:57.409
You just can't live without it.
01:00:57.650 --> 01:01:06.610
Agbull.com or call 85-5737FA, followed by the letters R and Magbull.com.
01:01:07.009 --> 01:01:11.650
Uh once again, thanks to the folks at PerfectSundaysTV.com.
01:01:11.809 --> 01:01:17.889
Watch perfectsundaystv.com and enter agbol at checkout for a special discount.
01:01:18.130 --> 01:01:20.369
And then uh then, of course, the good folks.
01:01:20.529 --> 01:01:24.130
Hold on, I've got to scroll up to uh make sure I get this one correct here.
01:01:24.210 --> 01:01:29.809
We talked to him just the other day, Mike and Carter from Terrainwater, terrainwater.com also offering a discount.
01:01:29.969 --> 01:01:33.489
Terrainwater.com, enter agbull at checkout.
01:01:33.889 --> 01:01:42.130
Jed Sidwell will get you set up right and early Monday morning, and then as I said, I'll have a conversation with Mike Castle from Stone X Monday afternoon.
01:01:42.289 --> 01:01:44.289
Take it easy this weekend, everybody.
01:01:44.449 --> 01:01:47.009
If you can, we appreciate you being here.
01:01:47.089 --> 01:01:49.809
Come on back Monday for more Xqualk.