Crypto Gets NUKED into Bunker Mode, AI Solves Math, and A Big Rant [Stream Recap]

WEBVTT
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Yo, I feel like I'm just down too much, you know?
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I feel like I'm really just down too much, you know?
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I feel like I'm just down too much money.
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I'm just down too much.
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I look around, I'm just down too much.
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Pull up Zcash, I'm down too much.
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Down too much, man.
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I'm just down too much.
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You know, not only are we like in panic mode over some I mean if you don't know why we're panicking right now.
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I I'm not even convinced this is why we're panicking.
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Okay.
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I I stream I read every chat.
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I'm not even convinced this is why we're panicking, but the the narrative as to why we're panicking is because Justin Drake, the cryptographer, the cypherpunk Justin Drake wrote who formerly wrote the quantum Google paper is gonna crack you know cryptography and everybody's gonna die and Bitcoin's gonna go to zero.
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And then nobody ever heard from him again.
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And then he came out yesterday on the back end of all of this.
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I look, I know nothing about math, but all these math theorems are getting solved or we're making progress with open AI.
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And he publishes paper basically talking about I look, I know nothing, but I I'll do my best.
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Basically talking about how we are on track for some point in the future to crack cryptography in crypto.
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And if you have a large amount of coins, you should do something about it.
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And everyone starts panicking, and it when it rains, it pours because this comes out, coins start getting destroyed, and then oil, Brenner oil is over 105, yields are going parabolic, Trump comes out and he's like, We're gonna hit Iran hard again, and the whole thing just comes all at once.
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I can't promise you much today.
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I can promise you two things though.
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I can promise you guys two things, two things only today.
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Bro, keep your real voice, stop making it deeper.
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Dude, shut the fuck up.
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How about that?
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Here's what I can promise you.
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I can promise you two things.
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Number one is I'm gonna put my brave face on and I'm gonna do my best ability to talk through how I'm thinking about trading this.
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Number two is I'm gonna bring on a math expert at 1015 today to actually give us like basically until 1015, we're just gonna dilly-dally around.
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I'm gonna give you some tics.
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I got some shit shit to get off my chest.
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But we're gonna I mean, we're gonna just like do a lot of dilly dying.
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I'm just gonna keep it a full stack.
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No pun intended.
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I'm gonna keep it a buck.
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We're just gonna be dilly-dallying around.
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All right, let's start here.
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Ready for launch.
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Um, all right, let's talk about stuff I know nothing about, but let's just let's just get right to it.
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Um, I was gonna start the stream with Johnny Manzel highlights.
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Yeah, that was live.
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I'm gonna start with Johnny Man.
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I was gonna start with Johnny Manzel highlights, but we'll uh we'll skip those for now.
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Johnny football.
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I just want to say that there was a I I was there for it.
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There was an era where Johnny football was bigger than the sport.
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I I've never there's never been an athlete that big relative to his sport more than Johnny football.
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Draft day, Johnny Manzel, how am I the man still?
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I had to do it to him.
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He's bigger than the sport, but all right, let's uh let's go.
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Let's just get into it.
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Let's stop fucking dilly-dallying around.
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Let me find the original tweet.
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Justin Drake.
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Just Drake F.
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Justin.
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So he makes this tweet and he says, Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for bunker mode.
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My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e., addresses whose public keys remain hidden behind a hash.
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And so I think that they're basically insinuating that we're close to a point where you can hack a public key just by being able to see it.
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I don't know.
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Um, holders starting with large and sophisticated ones should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction.
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And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address, possibly generated from the same seed phrase.
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Don't rush.
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Well, I believe there is act cause for action, a rush migration would do more harm than good.
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Don't panic either.
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Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple preventative step, which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.
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And so he says don't rush and don't panic, but he basically made a post and told everyone to rush and to panic, is what he said.
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And so this creates a very weird spot.
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Okay.
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And I think the reason it creates a weird spot is it is a sense it's a basic tweet, of course, that just is a good tweet.
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And it's basically irrefutable fearmonger.
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Like it's basically irrefutable worst thing that you've ever heard, fearmonger, and saying this could happen at some point in the future because I'm saying it could happen and we think that it could happen, and there's nothing you can do to tell me it can't happen because it's a future event that you can't like determine whether or not it could or couldn't happen.
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Like it could happen, and you can't really say no.
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And so as a result, it sets up this deeply uncomfortable fear monger.
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Yeah, that there's very few people in the world that have any idea if it's real, and then within those people, there's until it happens, it can basically be a thing forever.
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Like it's like um, it's kind of like the Iran deal.
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It's like it's hard to be too bearish because at some point in the future there might be a deal.
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And there's no way to know if there will or won't be until there is.
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He can dangle it forever, and he can pump fake it as many times as he wants.
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And every time he pumps fake it, you're gonna go up really high.
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So you're really gonna be short.
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Also, it's like quantum.
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But the thing is, the market has never re-like the mass market has never really done anything for quantum, like nothing has moved except for Bitcoin specifically.
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We're like, this is a Bitcoin problem, but like stocks did not struggle at all with quantum because nobody cared.
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It also was is way less real than AI.
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And so the problem with I think the the biggest problem here with this trade is like you don't and look, I am so conflicted on everyone is completely retarded, fuck this shit, versus this basic easy tweet.
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I don't know where I stand above 1200 Zach.
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Every I think the whole thing is just like fuck you guys, really.
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But I don't know that much.
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This is the problem, I don't know that much.
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Maybe that's a good thing.
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Um, this is the this is probably the framing though, is you don't want to be an AI loser story because an AI loser story will be sold aggressively for months, mainly SaaS.
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Justin Sweet is the first mainstream viral Bitcoin AI loser story.
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This isn't like exactly true.
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I don't think he meant to, but adds huge story drag to the whole sector of AI math progress equals bad for Bitcoin.
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Bitcoin's previously consensus is quantum loser, but nobody cares about quantum yet, or a flow's loser to AI bubble with mid mix impact.
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This is quite direct from a credible source on day of new math breakthroughs and if memes bad IMO.
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Now you're coming from a guy who's really short BTC.
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This might lose.
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People shrug it off and say unknown, unknown, fuck it, or current supply base aware of risk from AI before and don't care.
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But reality, we have to bend the whole market around AI stories to help get these IPOs out the door.
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This is true.
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See Anthropic had a pivot story, three-month biotech scamble market.
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This is true.
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Labs haven't pointed the gun at crypto yet, but we are sending out flares with that tweet.
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Picking up Steam TBH quoted another thread later, too.
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All right, there's like a bunch of problems here.
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Um, number one is I think the cope of a bunch of people are basically saying, like, if this cracks Bitcoin encryption, we got way bigger problems.
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We actually don't.
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Okay, my biggest problem is Bitcoin getting cracked and coins getting destroyed.
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Everyone's like, don't worry, like, if crypto goes to zero, like there's much bigger problems.
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I actually have no bigger problems than crypto going to zero.
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That's like my singular biggest problem, actually.
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Like, I there's nothing worse.
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They're like, well, no, no, no, no, there's actually nothing worse.
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That's my biggest problem.
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Uh and so this cope is is very that is my singular problem is crypto going to zero.
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I have no other problems than that.
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And so that is pretty just bad cope.
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It's it's very smooth-brained cope because it's like, um now it is true from the perspective of like, I don't know what happens next.
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Like, we my Bank of America account gets cracked.
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Because this encryption is like used everywhere, and so I I again I don't know that much of exactly what, but they're basically proposing like the entire internet be made be made public, is what's being proposed here.
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If if we're able to crack Bitcoin, you crack the entire make the entire internet public.
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So, what are the implications of that?
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I don't know, but your coins going to zero is definitely one of them.
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And so there's this fear, but then I flip it, and I'm like, okay, if this is the fear and it's credible, I'm assuming it's always, you know, rhino mode, it's always written in the charts.
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People have known about this.
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Rich whale chads have known about this.
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The best they could do is 82k on the dump.
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Really?
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That's the best they could do is 82k?
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Like, we couldn't make it lower than that on this fear.
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82k?
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1200 Zach.
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Like you basically just propose the worst thing that could ever happen, and we're at 82k and chillin'.
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But then I flipped the other way and I'm like, okay, wait, what if this really just is one of these stories that like nobody actually knows and it's contained to Twitter and we're early?
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And 82k is the start of a grind down to 75 to 70 to 65 to 60 to 55 to 50, right?
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Like, how do you know how contained the the story is?
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Right?
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And then so from that perspective, you were like, I should sell everything and I should be short.
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Okay, because if it goes, you know, if Bitcoin goes to 60k right now, and we saw this, you would be like, dude, I'm such an idiot.
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But if Bitcoin goes up and coins go up and nobody everyone shrugs this off because the best they could do is 82k, you're gonna feel like such a fucking idiot.
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And so there's there's this like battle of how real is this, how legitimate is this, and could it really be the case that this is new information?
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This is net new information.
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Nobody knew about this.
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No one knew about this?
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Really?
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I don't know.
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Like we just decided yesterday off a Justin Drake post who's telling you to buy Ethereum off the ETH Foundation roadmap.
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Nobody knew about this?
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Really?
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I don't know.
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That to me seems hard to believe.
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And so you go back and forth and you go back and forth and you go back and forth.
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And the the real, real, real problem here is that there's a knowledge asymmetry, correct?
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And even if it's not true, the AI loser story is grueling because you look at what happened to SaaS, and everybody was like, okay, cool, we're just gonna vibe code all SAS, it's worthless.
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IGV gets destroyed, you know, 75% or whatever over a couple months.
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And then everyone's like, wait a minute, we can't vibe code Palantir.
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Okay, let's rip it back up.
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And then so part of me thinks that these AI fear stories is sort of like the youthhuenza, how do you say youth uenza?
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I don't even know how they get smaller and smaller and smaller, because people get less and less and less and less and less scared.
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And so my the basic way you that you youth you youth in Asia, youth in Asia, youth in Asia, what did I call it?
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Euthuensia, youth in Asia, youth in Asia.
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You just you just spelled it.
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Thanks, smiley.
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Euthanasia, youth in Asia.
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Yeah, it feels like that a little bit, where it's like, okay, if we went down um 75% for um 75% for SAS, maybe 50% for quantum, maybe 25% for Navier Stokes, kill everyone, everyone lose their job.
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Maybe we'll go 10% for like you know what I mean?
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Like it, it's it's hard for you to it's easy to convince uh why you should short on you know two-day IBIT puts for this.
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It's harder to convince why you should sell all of your long-term belief and think that the crypto narrative is dead because it's like it's a different quest.
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Like, I get the IBIT two-day puts are good.
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But I sort of sit here and my trading style is basically like completely ignore the giga brain stuff I don't understand and just do what I feel like I understand and generally do pretty well.
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But then I'm also down 150 bands at 24 hours.
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Like, yeah, I'm fucking red.
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I don't know what to tell you.
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I'm like really red.
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Yeah, like what?
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Uh this is like an obvious thing to call out here.
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And so the reality is, I don't think anyone fucking knows.
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Okay, which is the worst kind of FUD, but also the best kind of FUD because it's like the ultimate wall of worry.
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But it's hard to like crack that wall of worry.
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And so we sort of sit here just like gay chuds and have no real way to like like I don't love this take.
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I've read this post five times, Justin Drake, and I increasingly have trouble with the core point.
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If EC DSA, I think like the encryption breaks without warning, we have so much more to worry about than our magic internet money.
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Internet security as a whole is gone.
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The internet is now transparent, not just internet security as well, a large portion of physical security would become irrelevant too.
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You can't secure digital locks if encryption is dead.
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You can't secure surveillance footage if the gateway it's stored on can be wiped out within a month.
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We would have much bigger problems than your magic internet money gets stolen.
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The floor would drop out on the global economy.
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Most importantly, the answer to transparent encryption simply cannot be hide your magic internet money when the internet wouldn't exist anymore.
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You'd be relying on the technology coming back online, and not just that, you'd be relying on the tokens you stash away being the relevant ones when it does.
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I get the reasonable dooming here, but if we're gonna doom, you have to take it to its conclusion.
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You're gonna be much better off investing in gold or lead.
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If your core hypothesis is EC DSA, it could be broken within months.
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But then it's like, okay, I don't have bigger problems than crypto going to zero.
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I don't.
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I I I just like legitimately don't have bigger problems than that.
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And then there's a counter, which is like historically speaking, it's silly to believe in FUD posted on X about a multi-trillion dollar asset that doesn't move accordingly.
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It's just noise, and you'll get wrecked by LTF psychosis low time frame.
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Don't get psy-oped and focus on numbers, followed by bear and short cryptocurrency.
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Justin Drake's tweet creates one of my favorite short setups, non-falsifiable FUD.
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And this is some of the greatest FUD possible.
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He's basically telling you there's a risk within months, there's a risk for the encryption protecting exposed public keys, but also the rest of the internet.
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The result being coins are at a risk for mass selling.
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And this is more cerebral risk because it's AI driven, not quantum.
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The most important insight is that it's not falsifiable.
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He says you shouldn't panic, but that's probably because he thinks the situation warrants panic.
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This is non-falsifiable FUD, meaning that by long crypto, you are betting against the advancement of AI.
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Okay, but the counter to that is it's also not provable until it happens.
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And so there's a bunch of village retards that can't see it happening in real time.
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It's like there's the FUD that's not, it's the nuke, it's we're gonna nuke Karg Island.
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You don't know how close anybody got to nuking Karg Island.
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You have no idea.
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You actually have no clue.
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Was Trump about to push the button or was he not?
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It's a non-falsifiable FUD that we might nuke Karg Island and then it's made falsifiable when it doesn't happen.
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So I don't know, guys.
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From here, I don't know.
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Um, I've done nothing.
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I kind of went to bed last night feeling like I should sell some coins.
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Woke up, it is what it is.
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But if you need like some cope, I guess, could maybe use this.
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Not bad.
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My my you know, yeah, like I I'm confused.
00:15:10.000 --> 00:15:22.240
Like, I'm uh part of it feels like the Zek exploit where nobody realized how just brutal this was for like 12 hours, and then it was like, oh my god, that was the most obvious short in the history of your life.
00:15:22.399 --> 00:15:26.639
And then the other side of me thinks to myself, how are we only at 82k?
00:15:26.799 --> 00:15:27.600
It's the best you could do.
00:15:27.840 --> 00:15:30.879
82 is the best 82.5, the best you could do.
00:15:31.120 --> 00:15:37.919
So we sit here just kind of like, you know, I'll tell you what, I think market open is is gonna be relatively telling.
00:15:38.159 --> 00:15:42.399
Um because the sharps, the guys that really control money know about this shit.
00:15:42.480 --> 00:15:44.080
No, they just do, they just do.
00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:45.840
Uh they know about it.
00:15:46.240 --> 00:15:51.120
And if we get destroyed on New York Open, you might see me talking open the computer, saw some coins.
00:15:51.200 --> 00:15:51.919
I don't know what to tell you.
00:15:52.000 --> 00:15:56.240
If we just get destroyed on on open, they're gonna dump us an open, but how bad?
00:15:56.320 --> 00:16:00.080
Like, are they gonna take us to 78 or are they gonna take us to like 81, 80?
00:16:00.799 --> 00:16:02.480
Because I don't know.
00:16:02.559 --> 00:16:04.879
I honestly, guys, I woke up today like a little bit fucking.
00:16:05.039 --> 00:16:06.080
Fuck my life, you know.
00:16:06.240 --> 00:16:06.559
I did.
00:16:06.639 --> 00:16:08.559
I woke up today like fuck me, you know.
00:16:08.720 --> 00:16:09.759
But this is what we do, man.
00:16:09.840 --> 00:16:12.480
This is the game we signed up for, and this is what it is.
00:16:12.799 --> 00:16:13.679
Um, let's go.
00:16:13.759 --> 00:16:20.799
We got stock market open in 20 seconds, and we have a math wizard coming on in 45 minutes.
00:16:20.960 --> 00:16:23.440
It's Thursday, October 8th, it's 9 30 a.m.
00:16:23.519 --> 00:16:25.679
As always, stock market open is powered by phantoms, powered by phantoms.
00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:31.679
Anything you see during the segment, anything you want to buy, sell, trade, open, close, make money on, or lose money on, which you might be doing a lot of today.
00:16:31.759 --> 00:16:33.440
You could do it on Phantom Wallet.
00:16:33.519 --> 00:16:34.559
And it's 9 30 a.m.
00:16:34.799 --> 00:16:42.480
Thursday, October 8th, and the stock market is officially Oh! Alright, what can you do to what can you do to us?
00:16:42.559 --> 00:16:43.279
What can you do to us?
00:16:43.440 --> 00:16:43.840
Just do it.
00:16:43.919 --> 00:16:45.440
If you're gonna do it, just fucking do it.
00:16:45.840 --> 00:16:47.120
If you're gonna do it, just do it.
00:16:47.360 --> 00:16:51.200
If you're gonna do it, just do it and get it over with.
00:16:51.519 --> 00:16:52.240
Alright, let's go.
00:16:52.399 --> 00:16:53.759
Let's go, let's go, let's go.
00:16:53.919 --> 00:16:57.759
Uh spy down 0.34, Russell low cap index down 0.5.
00:16:58.320 --> 00:17:00.559
Cosby was down 2.6 yesterday's session.
00:17:00.639 --> 00:17:02.000
NASDAQ 100 is down 0.7.
00:17:02.399 --> 00:17:04.720
Photonics, which what the fuck even is a photonic?
00:17:04.799 --> 00:17:06.400
Why do we why do I even say this every stream?
00:17:06.559 --> 00:17:07.279
Photonics.
00:17:07.359 --> 00:17:08.640
Does anyone even know what this means?
00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:09.440
Nobody does.
00:17:09.680 --> 00:17:10.640
It's down 4.6%.
00:17:10.880 --> 00:17:15.599
Neil Clouds are down 2.5, Mags are down 0.15, Dram is down 2.
00:17:15.759 --> 00:17:19.519
IBB is down 1.4% today.
00:17:19.759 --> 00:17:21.519
Crypto, Bitcoin, 82.3.
00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:25.920
Can you imagine if three months ago I told you 82.3 on Bitcoin today and I'd be upset?
00:17:26.079 --> 00:17:27.200
It looks beautiful.
00:17:27.440 --> 00:17:30.480
Zach, 1217, ETH 2550.
00:17:30.640 --> 00:17:31.759
Hype 85.
00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:33.519
I hope Jez makes money, bro.
00:17:33.759 --> 00:17:34.799
Lighter, 3.5.
00:17:35.119 --> 00:17:36.240
Near 5, down 5%.
00:17:36.480 --> 00:17:37.119
Pumps down 8.
00:17:37.279 --> 00:17:37.839
Purse down 2.
00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:38.880
Silver's down 1.3.
00:17:39.200 --> 00:17:40.319
Soul's down 3.5.
00:17:40.640 --> 00:17:42.960
Yields are retracing it the pump a little bit.
00:17:43.119 --> 00:17:44.000
Vix is up 2.5.
00:17:44.079 --> 00:17:45.920
Vvv is down 13%.
00:17:47.200 --> 00:17:48.079
Good sell by me.
00:17:48.160 --> 00:17:48.400
I guess.
00:17:48.480 --> 00:17:49.200
Gold's up 0.3.
00:17:49.440 --> 00:17:50.720
XRP's down 1.5.
00:17:50.880 --> 00:17:51.440
Not bad.
00:17:51.680 --> 00:17:52.880
Copper's down 0.5.
00:17:53.359 --> 00:17:54.880
Brent is 107.
00:17:55.359 --> 00:17:56.240
It's up three and a half.
00:17:56.319 --> 00:17:57.599
Crude is up four.
00:17:57.839 --> 00:17:58.559
Palantir.
00:17:58.640 --> 00:18:00.000
Congrats to the Palantir kid.
00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:00.640
My bad, dude.
00:18:00.799 --> 00:18:01.200
Congrats.
00:18:01.359 --> 00:18:01.839
OG.
00:18:02.000 --> 00:18:02.319
Congrats.
00:18:02.400 --> 00:18:03.119
It's up three percent.
00:18:03.200 --> 00:18:04.319
It's over 200.
00:18:04.480 --> 00:18:06.480
Um, Raytheon's down 0.3.
00:18:06.720 --> 00:18:07.759
Northrop is down 0.1.
00:18:07.839 --> 00:18:08.720
Lockheed is flat.
00:18:08.799 --> 00:18:09.839
Big semi's big AI.
00:18:09.920 --> 00:18:10.960
Google's up 1.6.
00:18:11.359 --> 00:18:13.440
Meta just got an investment from Trump, by the way.
00:18:13.599 --> 00:18:14.400
Retraced it though.
00:18:14.480 --> 00:18:15.119
$25 million.
00:18:15.599 --> 00:18:16.960
Adobe's down up one.
00:18:17.440 --> 00:18:18.720
Salesforce is up 0.5.
00:18:18.960 --> 00:18:20.400
Blackberry's up 2.7.
00:18:20.640 --> 00:18:23.680
We're gonna look at the SaaSpocalypse in a minute and see how that played out.
00:18:23.839 --> 00:18:27.039
Netflix is up 0.3, Microsoft flat, Firefly flat.
00:18:27.200 --> 00:18:29.039
Biggest losers, Shaw's every day.
00:18:29.200 --> 00:18:30.880
Every fucking day.
00:18:31.039 --> 00:18:31.599
Down 5%.
00:18:32.079 --> 00:18:32.799
Arms down four.
00:18:32.880 --> 00:18:33.759
Lumentum's down four.
00:18:33.839 --> 00:18:34.480
Marvel's on three.
00:18:34.559 --> 00:18:35.200
Nokia's down three.
00:18:35.279 --> 00:18:36.000
Intel down three.
00:18:36.079 --> 00:18:36.720
Bloom down three.
00:18:36.880 --> 00:18:38.400
SK Heinex was down two and a half.
00:18:38.480 --> 00:18:39.359
Cerebus is down two.
00:18:39.440 --> 00:18:40.160
Qcom down two.
00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:41.039
Sandis down two.
00:18:41.200 --> 00:18:41.599
Ugh.
00:18:42.559 --> 00:18:43.119
Look at Rob.
00:18:43.359 --> 00:18:44.720
Uh Nvidia's down 1.3.
00:18:44.799 --> 00:18:45.440
Tesla's down one.
00:18:45.599 --> 00:18:46.319
AMD is down two.
00:18:46.480 --> 00:18:47.279
Micron's down one.
00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:48.720
SK Heinex ADR.
00:18:48.960 --> 00:18:50.079
US Session down one.
00:18:50.240 --> 00:18:51.119
Rocket Lab down one.
00:18:51.279 --> 00:18:51.920
IBM down one.
00:18:52.079 --> 00:18:52.799
SpaceX down one.
00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:54.000
Look at Robinhood.
00:18:54.079 --> 00:18:54.480
Is it bad?
00:18:54.559 --> 00:18:55.680
You was fucked about this.
00:18:55.839 --> 00:19:00.640
It's like you had the trade, the the the crypto trade was one day.
00:19:01.920 --> 00:19:04.079
It was one day plus 70%.
00:19:04.559 --> 00:19:05.200
That was it.
00:19:05.359 --> 00:19:06.079
What was the FUD?
00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:07.119
We were gonna nuke you on.
00:19:07.200 --> 00:19:08.240
And that was last month, dude.
00:19:08.319 --> 00:19:09.599
The actual FUD is bond yields.
00:19:09.680 --> 00:19:10.880
Oh wait, that was yesterday.
00:19:11.039 --> 00:19:12.319
The actual FUD is oil price.
00:19:12.480 --> 00:19:13.839
Oh nope, oil was two weeks ago.
00:19:13.920 --> 00:19:15.039
The actual FUD is quantum.
00:19:15.119 --> 00:19:16.240
No, that was a couple months ago.
00:19:16.400 --> 00:19:18.480
The actual FUD is SAS pocalyp.
00:19:18.559 --> 00:19:19.920
Nope, that was a couple months ago.
00:19:20.160 --> 00:19:22.880
The actual FUD is math.
00:19:23.279 --> 00:19:26.559
I'm around 5k today, copy trading you automatically in a bot.
00:19:26.720 --> 00:19:27.359
I barely did anything.
00:19:27.440 --> 00:19:27.599
Cool.
00:19:27.680 --> 00:19:29.039
I'm down 150.
00:19:29.279 --> 00:19:31.839
So you might want to recheck that PL.
00:19:32.079 --> 00:19:32.559
All right.
00:19:32.720 --> 00:19:35.440
Um, SAS, consumer, everything.
00:19:35.519 --> 00:19:36.960
I rends down four.
00:19:37.200 --> 00:19:41.839
Core weaves down three and a half, Nebius is down three, Roblox is down two and a half.
00:19:42.240 --> 00:19:42.480
Oh, yeah.
00:19:42.559 --> 00:19:42.960
The plague.
00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:43.759
I forgot about the plague.
00:19:43.839 --> 00:19:44.480
Remember the plague?
00:19:44.720 --> 00:19:45.839
Mystier's on three and a half.
00:19:45.920 --> 00:19:46.240
Not that bad.
00:19:46.319 --> 00:19:47.200
Coinbase is down two.
00:19:47.279 --> 00:19:47.839
Where's Unity?
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:48.960
Unity, unity, unity.
00:19:49.119 --> 00:19:50.240
Unity biggest gainer.
00:19:50.559 --> 00:19:51.599
Oh my god.
00:19:52.079 --> 00:19:53.440
I'm geeking the spot.
00:19:53.519 --> 00:19:54.319
Gotta wrench on.
00:19:54.720 --> 00:19:56.079
Unity's the biggest gainer, dude.
00:19:56.160 --> 00:19:57.279
Up four percent today.
00:19:57.440 --> 00:19:58.640
Fuck my life.
00:19:58.960 --> 00:20:01.920
Imagine I rotated all my Zec into Unity.
00:20:02.720 --> 00:20:03.839
Oh my lord.
00:20:04.079 --> 00:20:04.880
Oh my god.
00:20:04.960 --> 00:20:05.519
Look at this.
00:20:05.759 --> 00:20:06.240
Unity.
00:20:06.319 --> 00:20:07.680
And I hold Zcash.
00:20:07.759 --> 00:20:08.240
Unity.
00:20:08.319 --> 00:20:08.720
Unity.
00:20:08.799 --> 00:20:09.200
Unity.
00:20:09.359 --> 00:20:09.759
Unity.
00:20:09.920 --> 00:20:10.319
Unity.
00:20:10.640 --> 00:20:12.240
Thing was up two and a half.
00:20:12.640 --> 00:20:14.400
Kind of my candy how often you do this.
00:20:14.480 --> 00:20:19.440
Just bink the next get obsessed with a thing that goes up in a straight line that a couple days before.
00:20:19.599 --> 00:20:20.720
Uh snap is flat.
00:20:20.799 --> 00:20:22.640
IGV's up a percent.
00:20:22.960 --> 00:20:26.960
And then not rotate, but like, what what the fuck kind of rotate you want me to do, bro?
00:20:27.039 --> 00:20:28.160
It's like chill, bro.
00:20:28.319 --> 00:20:28.880
It's just four percent.
00:20:28.960 --> 00:20:30.240
There's no chilling today.
00:20:30.559 --> 00:20:32.880
Um, I mean, we're hanging in the pocket right now.
00:20:33.119 --> 00:20:34.400
We're holding up, sort of.
00:20:34.559 --> 00:20:36.160
Nike's down, of course it is.
00:20:36.319 --> 00:20:39.759
I just want Doug to come on right now and tell me it's gonna be alright, is what I really want.
00:20:39.839 --> 00:20:40.319
Where are we?
00:20:40.480 --> 00:20:41.920
Ayo from YouTube, what's good, Gene?
00:20:42.000 --> 00:20:43.519
Trampo 25 and Metastock.
00:20:43.759 --> 00:20:44.799
Things are looking at today.
00:20:44.960 --> 00:20:45.759
Too much, Mato.
00:20:46.160 --> 00:20:47.279
Slop, slop, slop.
00:20:47.519 --> 00:20:48.880
Oh man, what a spot.
00:20:49.039 --> 00:20:50.880
Um, 82 1.
00:20:50.960 --> 00:20:53.359
I just like don't want to see a flush out to eight.
00:20:53.440 --> 00:20:56.400
I think we get into the weekend, we like I don't know.
00:20:56.480 --> 00:20:57.759
I feel like today's the day.
00:20:57.920 --> 00:21:00.079
No, like today's kind of the day to do it.
00:21:00.480 --> 00:21:05.200
Maybe not, maybe it's just a grind down, but like Zach wasn't a grind down.
00:21:05.279 --> 00:21:07.279
It was like, let's die today.
00:21:07.839 --> 00:21:08.319
You know?
00:21:08.640 --> 00:21:10.799
The Zec one was like, look at this.
00:21:11.039 --> 00:21:16.160
Zach was a one day, everyone's gonna die in two days in a straight line, 60%.
00:21:16.799 --> 00:21:18.079
I think it is fucking cringe.
00:21:18.160 --> 00:21:18.400
I agree.
00:21:19.279 --> 00:21:20.240
What happened on 1010?
00:21:20.480 --> 00:21:21.440
Wait till tomorrow.
00:21:22.079 --> 00:21:25.119
And so I feel like if they're gonna do it, today's the day.
00:21:25.279 --> 00:21:26.319
All right, what do we got?
00:21:26.799 --> 00:21:27.279
Answer.
00:21:28.720 --> 00:21:32.319
Lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord, lord.
00:21:32.880 --> 00:21:33.119
Lord.
00:21:33.920 --> 00:21:43.599
Neat I am D Mars Coin.
00:21:44.400 --> 00:21:44.640
Fa.
00:21:45.119 --> 00:21:46.000
Moo Fah.
00:21:46.480 --> 00:21:46.960
Z cat?
00:21:47.200 --> 00:21:47.839
Not bad, dude.
00:21:48.000 --> 00:21:49.440
FWA, cards?
00:21:49.839 --> 00:21:51.039
Shirley boner is strong.
00:21:52.160 --> 00:21:52.720
Oh my lord.
00:21:52.799 --> 00:21:54.960
I'm actually down an enormous amount of money today.
00:21:55.519 --> 00:21:56.559
Oh boys.
00:21:56.799 --> 00:21:57.759
FWA.
00:21:58.720 --> 00:21:59.359
It's green.
00:22:00.319 --> 00:22:01.200
Oh my god.
00:22:01.359 --> 00:22:02.799
What a game we play, huh?
00:22:03.119 --> 00:22:03.680
Stonk.
00:22:03.839 --> 00:22:04.799
Oh, geez.
00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:06.240
Ponds.
00:22:06.640 --> 00:22:07.119
Boom.
00:22:07.279 --> 00:22:07.599
Mr.
00:22:07.759 --> 00:22:08.079
Doug.
00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:09.200
How are you, man?
00:22:09.440 --> 00:22:10.079
Hey, Tred.
00:22:10.240 --> 00:22:10.799
How's it going?
00:22:10.960 --> 00:22:11.599
I'm good, dude.
00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:12.799
It's good to see you, man.
00:22:13.039 --> 00:22:14.079
Yeah, good to see you.
00:22:14.160 --> 00:22:14.880
Thanks for having me on.
00:22:14.960 --> 00:22:15.759
I'm excited.
00:22:16.000 --> 00:22:17.279
I appreciate you for coming on.
00:22:17.359 --> 00:22:23.839
I think this is basically our one year anniversary of the last time you came on, which I think was 10-11, 2025.
00:22:24.319 --> 00:22:24.720
Yeah.
00:22:24.960 --> 00:22:25.200
Yeah.
00:22:26.079 --> 00:22:29.359
Every year around this time, something crazy happens and every year around this time.
00:22:31.039 --> 00:22:31.359
I know.
00:22:31.519 --> 00:22:35.119
Uh I wish it could be for more uh I don't know.
00:22:35.200 --> 00:22:38.480
Uh on a more bullish day, but like the somber days are just as important.
00:22:38.559 --> 00:22:45.039
Do you want to give like a really quick uh just intro into who you are and why you're like a math wizard, by the way?
00:22:45.119 --> 00:22:48.319
I I wasn't aware of this background.
00:22:49.599 --> 00:22:50.640
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:22:50.799 --> 00:22:53.200
So uh yeah, my name's uh my name's Doug.
00:22:53.279 --> 00:22:59.680
Uh I've been in crypto for a while now, uh working on a perks exchange superluminal that's not out.
00:22:59.759 --> 00:23:02.640
Now working on a crypto AI project as well.
00:23:02.720 --> 00:23:07.599
Uh Veranos AI, which is kind of like on-chain LLMs and inference.
00:23:07.680 --> 00:23:09.279
And uh yeah, math-wise, I don't know.
00:23:09.359 --> 00:23:11.200
I've always just been a math hobbyist.
00:23:11.279 --> 00:23:15.119
Uh so I've in another life I wish I was a mathematician.
00:23:15.279 --> 00:23:17.920
Maybe not now though, because none of them seem to have jobs set.
00:23:18.720 --> 00:23:19.119
Sick.
00:23:19.440 --> 00:23:21.119
Um, well, thank you for being here with us.
00:23:21.279 --> 00:23:29.440
I I guess to start, can you sort of lay out in I I mean you could get niche and complicated if you want, but maybe like high level as well.
00:23:29.599 --> 00:23:32.880
What exactly did OpenAI release?
00:23:32.960 --> 00:23:38.000
And what have they been releasing on the math side of things and why is it so significant?
00:23:38.559 --> 00:23:39.279
Yeah, yeah.
00:23:39.359 --> 00:23:42.319
No, that's uh that's a great, I think great way to get started.
00:23:42.559 --> 00:23:45.599
So what uh like what like happened, right?
00:23:45.680 --> 00:23:53.200
Like we've obviously like we've had these LLMs, these language models, and they've you know, capabilities have been increasing over time.
00:23:53.359 --> 00:23:59.359
And I think starting this year, they were getting well, I guess for a little bit, right?
00:23:59.440 --> 00:24:01.599
Like they you've kind of seen them improve over time.
00:24:01.680 --> 00:24:05.279
Like even like two years ago, it's like, okay, can they do like SAT type math problems?
00:24:05.440 --> 00:24:16.160
Then they started doing these like uh AMC, like these kind of math contests that like smart high school kids would do, like IMO, International Math Olympiad contests.
00:24:16.319 --> 00:24:17.440
Those aren't new problems, right?
00:24:17.519 --> 00:24:22.400
But they're like, you know, definitely a problem that you know only the brightest like kids could kind of get.
00:24:22.480 --> 00:24:23.599
And they started doing those.
00:24:23.680 --> 00:24:28.799
And then beginning this year, they started solving um what are called like Earth's problems.
00:24:28.880 --> 00:24:34.640
And it's after this mathematician Ertos, who basically came up with, I don't know, crazy, like a thousand problems or something.
00:24:34.799 --> 00:24:37.599
These are like not really that important, but they're kind of challenging.
00:24:37.680 --> 00:24:40.720
And like anytime you solve one, it's like kind of hard to do.
00:24:40.880 --> 00:24:48.000
So they started solving those this year, and it was even like it's not just open AI, it was like people who are using like ChatGPT Pro and solving them.
00:24:48.240 --> 00:24:57.759
And then the real like shot across like the bow this year was when they solved uh Navier Stokes, which is um a millennium problem.
00:24:57.839 --> 00:25:09.119
And basically, right, there are these seven problems that uh were have a prize of a million dollars attached to them, and like at the beginning of the century, like they said, what are the hardest, like biggest problems in math?
00:25:09.359 --> 00:25:10.480
Seven of them.
00:25:10.640 --> 00:25:11.680
Um, here they are.
00:25:11.839 --> 00:25:13.519
One has been solved up to this point.
00:25:13.680 --> 00:25:16.720
So, like the fact that uh they solved one was like huge.
00:25:16.799 --> 00:25:24.880
It has to do with like fluid and like uh, you know, basically like fluid dynamics and like complicated, but like the idea is like this is like a really big accomplishment.
00:25:24.960 --> 00:25:25.359
Like, right?
00:25:25.440 --> 00:25:29.200
Mathematicians have been like working on this for a long time.
00:25:29.519 --> 00:25:33.920
Like uh, you know, obviously this would be huge if if your mathematician solved it.
00:25:34.079 --> 00:25:34.960
So they did that.
00:25:35.039 --> 00:25:43.920
And then just uh what it was two days ago, they released 400 open problems um in math, and these were all pretty significant.
00:25:44.079 --> 00:25:52.799
I don't know if any were on like the level of a millennium problem, but the fact that they just dumped like 400 at once was like holy but holy shit.
00:25:52.960 --> 00:26:01.359
And uh the other like small thing is like so far, the uh AI and math has been good at certain areas, not great at other areas.
00:26:01.519 --> 00:26:10.160
So like uh even I say like combinatorics or like certain like subfields, it doesn't really matter, but like AI has been certain good at certain things, maybe not so good at other things.
00:26:10.319 --> 00:26:15.440
Um, I think like this problem dumped there to just kind of like seem good at like everything now.
00:26:15.599 --> 00:26:27.200
So now it's like okay, this is the moment it's like okay, open AI is like or AI in general, is like really just like knocking out math problem after math problem and like pretty significant things like across across the field.
00:26:27.680 --> 00:26:35.519
And so what changes now, knowing that these LLMs have the capability to solve problems at this level.
00:26:36.079 --> 00:27:07.680
Yeah, I think oh, I mean, obviously, like the thing people are talking about in crypto is we don't there's a lot of things in cryptography, which is obviously like the root of cryptocurrency, that you know, kind of we don't have a great sense of how hard something is, or certain things we don't know how hard they are to like do, and like a lot of cryptography relies on we think doing this operation is easy and doing this operation is really hard, but we're not a hundred percent sure how hard it is.
00:27:07.759 --> 00:27:15.680
Like people have been trying for a while to like you know solve things like a discrete log in like an easy way, but we don't know 100% for sure.
00:27:15.839 --> 00:27:22.799
And now I think what's happening is is like we don't know what the pace of math is gonna look like for the next year or two.
00:27:22.880 --> 00:27:27.279
Like we've had a sense of like, okay, math advances roughly like this much per year.
00:27:27.359 --> 00:27:28.720
So like this is a really hard problem.
00:27:28.799 --> 00:27:32.720
It's pretty unlikely this is gonna get like broken, you know, in any time soon.
00:27:32.799 --> 00:27:39.920
But I think like what people are worried about now is is like kind of all bets are off the table, and like we don't know how fast things are gonna go.
00:27:40.000 --> 00:27:46.799
So a lot of assumptions that we could make about certain things are like, okay, I'm not really sure, right?
00:27:46.880 --> 00:27:56.640
Like next six months, there's a chance, like a lot of a lot of things in this like recent jump were like things people didn't expect to be uh be there, like very counterintuitive results.
00:27:56.799 --> 00:28:04.480
So I I think it's like people are now thinking, like, what's the risk of like you know, kind of these long held assumptions could get turned over very quickly.
00:28:04.720 --> 00:28:11.359
Was there any like um pinpoint advancement in these LLMs that allowed it to all all of a sudden be incredible at math?
00:28:12.000 --> 00:28:17.680
Yeah, I mean, not I don't know if there's any one thing.
00:28:17.839 --> 00:28:31.279
The biggest thing was probably like chain of thought, which is basically uh it sounds if it's really just okay, the LM, just think about this and like write it out, and then it, you know, just write out like your thinking steps and keep going back and forth.
00:28:31.519 --> 00:28:33.680
Um, that was like the big one for reasoning.
00:28:33.759 --> 00:28:41.200
Because what would happen before is like LOMs were more like vibe ish, um, and they'd like, you know, and that's often why you got hallucinations like, yeah, I kind of feel like this is right.
00:28:41.519 --> 00:28:45.599
Um, now they actually have to write it out and like check their work and review it.
00:28:45.759 --> 00:28:52.480
Um, that and maybe uh what they call like RLVR, which is reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards.
00:28:52.720 --> 00:28:56.240
Um and that's basically they take these base train models.
00:28:56.319 --> 00:29:01.359
And the way the base train model works is like you just dump a whole bunch of data from the internet into it, you run it.
00:29:01.440 --> 00:29:04.799
And it's it's literally it literally autocomplete, like when you think, right?
00:29:04.880 --> 00:29:06.400
It's like the same, it's kind of funny, right?
00:29:06.480 --> 00:29:11.519
It's the same autocomplete you had on your phone 20 years ago, um, but just super, super soup, right?
00:29:11.599 --> 00:29:22.240
So those are the base models, and then they took those and then they started plugging in um, you know, real math problems to it to get like get results, and they could kind of you know hill climb those.
00:29:22.400 --> 00:29:32.960
So it's not like a like one thing, but it's really just the data has gotten a lot more accurate, and the labs have invested a lot more on like these types of like uh problems, I guess.
00:29:33.119 --> 00:29:38.319
So it's yeah, I mean, like I think the story of LLMs is just data plus scale equals intelligence.
00:29:38.640 --> 00:29:45.440
And so then Justin Drake makes this post, which is like a bomb goes off on crypto Twitter.
00:29:45.759 --> 00:29:56.799
Um, what yeah, could you maybe break down what he is sort of not fear-mongering, but suggesting could happen and what your personal thoughts are on the Justin post?
00:29:57.519 --> 00:30:08.400
Yeah, I I think right, like I think it's probably oversold what he's saying, but there is definitely something worth breaking down um and engaging with that there.
00:30:08.640 --> 00:30:19.599
So Justin's point is uh, and like going back to what I said before, a lot of things in cryptography are based on things we don't know for sure, but we're pretty sure they're hard.
00:30:19.759 --> 00:30:20.799
We don't know if they're hard.
00:30:20.960 --> 00:30:25.839
And and also kind of like what I was saying before is like we don't know the pace of advancement right now.
00:30:26.079 --> 00:30:33.440
So uh, you know, things that we think are hard may actually turn out not to be hard, and we might discover them pretty soon.
00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:37.599
I think like Justin's post was like months, not years.
00:30:37.759 --> 00:30:44.000
I think that's probably a hard thing to say, but but the point is like it's kind of a wider like variance now.
00:30:44.079 --> 00:30:45.519
So that was one point he made.
00:30:45.599 --> 00:30:54.559
And then the other point, which I think is a little more subtle, is certain things in in cryptography are kind of more complex than other things.
00:30:54.720 --> 00:31:07.119
So, like, all of like pretty much all like crypto chains today rely on like elliptic curve signatures, and like long story short, that just means like, okay, we have these kind of curves, and then like you have to find two points on the curve, and those are hard to do.
00:31:07.519 --> 00:31:12.799
Um, and then people are used that are looking at like lattice signatures, which again, like these are kind of complex things.
00:31:12.960 --> 00:31:24.400
And Justin's point was the more complex things are probably more likely to have like some weird uh way to reverse it versus like hash-based signature, like hashing.
00:31:24.480 --> 00:31:25.680
Uh that's the other thing, right?
00:31:25.759 --> 00:31:28.640
Like hashing is like kind of just brute force and dumb.
00:31:28.720 --> 00:31:31.759
So there's probably not like a weird backdoor into it.
00:31:31.920 --> 00:31:39.599
So Justin's point specifically was you should not have your public keys exposed anywhere.
00:31:39.759 --> 00:31:47.039
You should only have your hash of the public because reversing a hash is probably a lot harder than going from a public key to a private key.
00:31:47.279 --> 00:31:58.480
Um, and then uh this thing there is like, okay, with Ethereum, you actually your address is a hash of your public key, but when you send a transaction, um you have to like send your public key, someone can see it.
00:31:58.559 --> 00:32:03.920
So his point was like bunker mode, and you should move all your assets into an address that's never been used before.
00:32:04.000 --> 00:32:07.839
And every time you use it, move everything to a virgin address and just keep doing it.
00:32:08.079 --> 00:32:09.519
That seems pretty extreme.
00:32:09.680 --> 00:32:12.240
Um, I don't know if we have to worry about that quite today.
00:32:12.319 --> 00:32:17.519
And if we did have to worry about it, I think enough things would be fucked that your your ETH probably wouldn't be worth anything.
00:32:17.839 --> 00:32:18.880
This is a tough question, right?
00:32:18.960 --> 00:32:26.799
It's like people are like, you know, if if crypto like we have bigger problems in your coins going to zero, I'm like, me personally, that is my biggest problem.
00:32:26.960 --> 00:32:31.279
Like, I I don't know about you all, but could you touch on that a little bit, like cryptography broadly?
00:32:31.440 --> 00:32:35.039
Like, what is he what is he like saying could happen?
00:32:35.119 --> 00:32:37.119
And if it were to happen, like what is it connected to?
00:32:37.200 --> 00:32:42.160
Like, what are the implications beyond just you know, Bitcoin and crypto?
00:32:42.400 --> 00:32:43.200
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
00:32:43.359 --> 00:32:59.759
So I mean, right, like everything relies on, I'm gonna just say, right, like, even the fact that we're talking over Zoom and like people can't eavesdrop in on our conversation or they can't like fake conversation, or you send me a message, I know it's from you and not from North Korea, right?
00:32:59.839 --> 00:33:07.039
Like those all rely on pretty much elliptic curve signatures, but these kind of standard signatures.
00:33:07.279 --> 00:33:20.799
Um and so if anyone can fake a signature, like the internet as we know it is kind of broken because like anyone can fake being someone else, anyone can fake a website, your banking website.
00:33:20.960 --> 00:33:28.960
So, I mean, maybe the whole internet's broken and you just have to like show up at your bank for a little bit, or right, like you can't use your banking app.
00:33:29.680 --> 00:33:31.119
Right, like that that happens.
00:33:31.279 --> 00:33:42.480
The other thing is like if signatures are broken, like pretty much every proof of stake blockchain is like even if your coins are safe, uh, like Ethereum relies on signatures from the validators.
00:33:42.559 --> 00:33:50.720
So if somebody can lie about the signatures of the validators, like anyone can re-org the chain at any time, and you can't like the chain's not gonna run.
00:33:50.799 --> 00:33:56.960
Like the only chain that would actually be running is actually Bitcoin because it's it's proof of work and that relies on cashing, not signatures.
00:33:59.519 --> 00:34:12.800
And so like what how what is like the gate, like how would this play out from this scenario where it's like okay, if anyone could like fake a signature, then the entire internet as we know it like ceases to exist.
00:34:12.960 --> 00:34:16.159
Obviously, there's massive, massive, massive implications on that.
00:34:16.320 --> 00:34:21.280
There's bank accounts, there's there's everything, every message that's ever been written everywhere online.
00:34:21.519 --> 00:34:26.079
Like, how do you even just like playing what if?
00:34:26.239 --> 00:34:28.320
Like, how do you see this sort of playing out from here?
00:34:28.400 --> 00:34:30.960
Like, this is this is like government intervention steps in.
00:34:31.119 --> 00:34:32.400
Like, how does this yeah?
00:34:32.960 --> 00:34:46.159
I mean, the good thing is is like we do have these things called hash signatures, which are um probably not like again, like anything could be breakable, but like these are just kind of dumber, so there's less like hooks and to break them.
00:34:46.400 --> 00:34:48.480
Um, we do have these things called hash signatures.
00:34:48.559 --> 00:34:51.760
What we'd probably have to do is move everything to hash signatures.
00:34:51.840 --> 00:34:56.639
The problem with hash signatures is like they're really big and they're just really annoying to work with.
00:34:56.719 --> 00:35:02.320
Um, so like that's not why they're not really like you couldn't even have a blockchain with hash signatures, but they're so big, right?
00:35:02.400 --> 00:35:06.239
You can even fit one signature into a Solana transaction anyway.
00:35:06.400 --> 00:35:08.960
So that's why like nobody uses them, they're just a pain in the ass.
00:35:09.039 --> 00:35:10.639
But like they exist, like you could use them.
00:35:10.719 --> 00:35:14.960
Um, you'd eventually start moving more and more things over what uses them right now.
00:35:15.920 --> 00:35:20.400
Uh I think mil I think a lot of military stuff has moved to them.
00:35:20.559 --> 00:35:25.119
I know like the NIST is like pushing them pretty hard.
00:35:25.280 --> 00:35:29.760
Uh, blockchains don't use them because like we kind of care about performance.
00:35:29.840 --> 00:35:33.119
Um, but I mean maybe maybe we should start thinking about it.
00:35:33.440 --> 00:35:34.159
Interesting.
00:35:34.400 --> 00:35:49.440
Um it's it feels like a crazy, it's a pretty generational fear monger because it's like this thing could hypothetically happen in the future at a rate of acceleration that we can't measure, and there's no there's no way to disprove it can't happen.
00:35:49.760 --> 00:35:52.159
There's no precedent for it, is the problem, right?
00:35:52.239 --> 00:35:53.199
It's like we can't.
00:35:53.280 --> 00:35:55.519
I mean, I I guess I'm tempted.
00:35:55.599 --> 00:35:57.920
Like, I'm old enough, like I remember like the Y2K stuff.
00:35:58.159 --> 00:36:04.159
Okay, people are saying I was even born Y2K, but can you like yeah, was were people really did you think you were gonna die during Y2K?
00:36:05.119 --> 00:36:07.840
Yeah, I yeah, yeah, Zoomer, Zoomers don't get that.
00:36:07.920 --> 00:36:11.679
Yeah, so yeah, I mean Y2K, like it was kind of like this, right?
00:36:11.760 --> 00:36:15.840
Like, most people, 85, 90 of people are like, yeah, Y2K is probably fine.
00:36:16.000 --> 00:36:21.679
10 of people were like fucking nuts, like, okay, I'm like hoarding food and stuff, like I don't know what's gonna happen.
00:36:21.920 --> 00:36:24.079
Um, but yeah, and obviously didn't.
00:36:24.159 --> 00:36:28.639
But on the other hand, like people spent a lot of money to like fix all those Y2K bugs.
00:36:28.719 --> 00:36:34.320
It's not like everyone's just like, oh, the worries were unfounded, like they were there, and like you had to do a lot.
00:36:34.480 --> 00:36:43.039
I I guess I'd say with like this AI stuff, like there's a big difference if this is super fast versus this is like over even months, right?
00:36:43.119 --> 00:36:51.280
If so, if the AI goes like crazy fast, which I think is very unlikely as someone who who's using AI to try to solve math problems, I don't think it's gonna solve anything in a week.
00:36:51.440 --> 00:36:56.559
I doubt it's gonna solve any of these big things even in months, maybe in years.
00:36:56.800 --> 00:37:00.320
But if you have years, right, you have time to switch stuff over.
00:37:00.480 --> 00:37:06.719
Um, if it's like, okay, like, oh shit, like we're publishing something and it's gonna be out in a month.
00:37:06.880 --> 00:37:10.880
Um, right, like that's all that's like that that goes faster, right?
00:37:10.960 --> 00:37:12.480
So it's it's fast versus slow.
00:37:12.639 --> 00:37:28.000
Um, I think so far what we've seen from the results though are the AI is very, very good at checking a box, like like some of these results with open AI, like technically they like broke some barrier, but they break it by a very, very small amount.
00:37:28.159 --> 00:37:34.880
Um, and so I think the AI is very good at that, and that ends up not being that practical, and then you have to go back and forth and like to get anything practical.
00:37:35.119 --> 00:37:43.199
So that's why I'd be a little bit more optimistic, at least in this scenario, is like these things aren't like they're smart, but right?
00:37:43.280 --> 00:37:48.000
Like they're they kind of just do like I I don't know, like they're more incremental than I think people think.
00:37:48.239 --> 00:37:53.199
What do you think about this idea that there might be some secret breakthroughs that open AI has already solved internally?
00:37:53.360 --> 00:37:54.639
How likely is that?
00:37:55.920 --> 00:37:57.679
I mean you can't rule anything out.
00:37:57.840 --> 00:38:00.480
I think that's pretty, I think that's pretty unlikely.
00:38:00.960 --> 00:38:04.719
Um well, I like again, like these would be pretty big.
00:38:04.880 --> 00:38:14.000
I I think if they had a breakthrough on like discrete log or elliptic curve or anything like that, they would be bigger than because even now like now your Stokes is another example.
00:38:14.159 --> 00:38:16.639
Like they technically checked the box for the Millennium Prize.
00:38:16.719 --> 00:38:22.239
There's no practical applications for it, yeah, because the way they did it is like a very, very specific way.
00:38:22.719 --> 00:38:31.440
Um, so I think so far what we've seen is I we haven't really seen any major math thing from AI that really has immediate practical applications.
00:38:31.519 --> 00:38:36.400
Um, so if they broke cryptography this way, it would be kind of very different.
00:38:36.480 --> 00:38:41.360
Like, I think even more capabilities than like kind of what we've seen the AI behave.
00:38:41.679 --> 00:38:41.920
Okay.
00:38:42.159 --> 00:38:43.519
I I like the framing of that.
00:38:43.760 --> 00:38:44.960
What about on the positive side?
00:38:45.039 --> 00:38:49.760
Like, are there any positive implications from AI's newfound capabilities with math?
00:38:49.840 --> 00:38:51.599
Like, yeah, I think enormous.
00:38:51.679 --> 00:39:09.280
So I think, right, like the story here is especially like for software, as someone who's like written smart contracts and like you know has had you know millions of dollars in smart contracts, like millions of dollars in smart contracts I've written, like that's fucking terrifying, like going to bed and being like, uh, like shit.
00:39:09.360 --> 00:39:11.840
I really hope I didn't make any mistake in the code I wrote.
00:39:12.000 --> 00:39:18.159
Like, that's you know, that's not that's definitely one of the most stressful things about being a crypto dev.
00:39:18.559 --> 00:39:37.760
Um, but uh, you know, one cool thing we can do now is like what's called formal verification, where we can write programs and then actually like you know structure them as theorems and then actually have you know proof systems prove that okay, like this code follows this, this it's impossible to do.
00:39:37.920 --> 00:39:47.360
They know you have to get like your conditions right, but like the the whole idea is like formal verification, and they're like doing this with Zcash now, um, with like the shield up the new shield up pools.
00:39:47.519 --> 00:39:50.320
Um, that's just like huge from a security standpoint.
00:39:50.400 --> 00:39:52.239
And like so far in crypto, right?
00:39:52.320 --> 00:39:56.000
The security risk isn't like cryptography breaking, it's like these smart contract packs.
00:39:56.159 --> 00:40:06.559
Um, so I like I'm I'm super excited about like AI can do like formal verification and like writing formal verification before is just like so tedious and so long, like humans couldn't do it.
00:40:06.719 --> 00:40:15.599
Um, like we're already like doing stuff now where like I actually put like a little AMM contract out on EVM, which is like purely in lean.
00:40:15.679 --> 00:40:18.079
Um, so formally verified, like all of that stuff.
00:40:18.239 --> 00:40:25.679
So I I think it's like from a security perspective, I think it is possible we get like quote unquote perfect security because of AI.
00:40:25.760 --> 00:40:26.000
Wow.
00:40:28.000 --> 00:40:29.679
Perfect security because AI, that's insane.
00:40:29.760 --> 00:40:33.519
Is Zcash like uniquely positioned for some of these Doom scenarios?
00:40:34.320 --> 00:40:38.719
Uh I think Zcash is actually for a Doom scenario scenario.
00:40:38.880 --> 00:40:43.760
I think Zcash is actually maybe better situated, especially if you have shielded Zcash.
00:40:43.840 --> 00:40:48.239
Like that's probably actually one of your better situations because shielding gives you like two layers.
00:40:48.320 --> 00:40:53.679
One is your signature, but the other is like technically nobody knows your signature, and it's this like Merkle tree.
00:40:53.840 --> 00:41:05.760
So if yet you have to go to bunker mode, like Justin Drake says, uh, let's say Zcash is guaranteed because consensus would break too, but Zcash is probably one of the better places you can go to bunker mode.
00:41:06.000 --> 00:41:07.119
Okay, I'll take that.
00:41:07.280 --> 00:41:10.159
Uh, what are you working on right now on the math side of things?
00:41:10.239 --> 00:41:13.760
Your timeline has been electric the last 72 hours.
00:41:14.480 --> 00:41:14.880
Yeah.
00:41:15.119 --> 00:41:28.400
So I uh I as soon as OpenAI dumped those, I uh I do these little stupid explainers where I like I say, okay, try to take a thing and put it into like a little comic or whatever, and people people kind of like them.
00:41:28.480 --> 00:41:31.119
Um so I did that and then I was like, okay, this is kind of fun.
00:41:31.280 --> 00:41:42.159
And then uh then I asked it, like, okay, what do you out of any of these problems, like if I just wanted to like make an improvement on like what OpenAI published, I think it'll be fun.
00:41:42.239 --> 00:41:43.440
Like, which one do you think it will be?
00:41:43.519 --> 00:41:48.079
Um, and it was this one integer multiplication, which is basically just, you know, how hard is it?
00:41:48.239 --> 00:41:49.920
You have two really, really big integers.
00:41:50.000 --> 00:41:53.360
Um, how hard is it to like multiply them together?
00:41:53.519 --> 00:41:59.840
Uh, like, you know, basic asymptotic complexity, which just means like as they get bigger, how much harder does it get?
00:42:00.000 --> 00:42:12.320
And like OpenAI's result was really cool because it found that um what we thought was like the limit was not quite like we could go below the limit, but only very, very slightly below the limit.
00:42:12.400 --> 00:42:15.599
Um, and everyone was like clowning on it, like saying, Oh, what's the point of this?
00:42:15.679 --> 00:42:17.039
Like, what's the point of this dog?
00:42:17.360 --> 00:42:18.159
Like, it doesn't even matter.
00:42:18.239 --> 00:42:19.679
Like, there's more atoms in the universe.
00:42:19.840 --> 00:42:26.400
So I also thought it'd be kind of cool to show, like, okay, like you got to be more optimistic about math.
00:42:26.480 --> 00:42:27.760
Um, like things will advance.
00:42:27.920 --> 00:42:31.679
So I took this problem, put it into Astros, going back and forth.
00:42:31.840 --> 00:42:35.840
I like to think like I kind of contribute it, but as like a lot like codex.
00:42:36.159 --> 00:42:44.960
Um, and then we took it from from basically the rate of improvement was two to the 182 power, minus 182 power.
00:42:45.039 --> 00:42:47.119
So one over two to the 82.
00:42:47.360 --> 00:42:51.519
We took it down to two to one or one to two to thirty-four.
00:42:51.840 --> 00:42:55.360
So a quadrillion, quadrillion, quadrillion, like a huge reduction.
00:42:55.440 --> 00:42:57.360
Um, but it started, it started astronomical.
00:42:57.440 --> 00:42:59.679
It's still pretty big, but not as astronomical.
00:42:59.760 --> 00:43:01.199
Uh, and then people took off with it.
00:43:01.360 --> 00:43:02.239
Now people are doing it.
00:43:02.320 --> 00:43:04.800
Some I think somebody has it down to like two to the 16.
00:43:04.880 --> 00:43:07.679
Uh, I have to like go back and like check everything now.
00:43:07.760 --> 00:43:13.440
So like it's now actually getting to like practical applications, um, which is kind of my hope.
00:43:13.519 --> 00:43:16.559
Like, I like I I want people to be like less cynical about this stuff.
00:43:16.719 --> 00:43:22.000
So if we could actually get it to something like practical where like people are clowning on it, it's like, what's even the point of this?
00:43:22.079 --> 00:43:24.880
I think I think it would be like maybe good for society.
00:43:25.119 --> 00:43:26.800
How many tokens to get there?
00:43:28.239 --> 00:43:35.039
Uh I burned through my codex subscription and then I made my wife use uh give me her codex tokens.
00:43:35.119 --> 00:43:37.760
So uh I might have too some resets.
00:43:38.000 --> 00:43:39.039
Yeah, not too bad.
00:43:39.280 --> 00:43:41.360
Um that was optimistic.
00:43:41.440 --> 00:43:41.840
I like that.
00:43:41.920 --> 00:43:52.800
I I guess one more on the original Doomsday is like, is there any sort of flare gun signals to look for on the oh shit, we maybe have a bigger problem than we thought.
00:43:54.880 --> 00:43:56.800
Yeah, that's a good question.
00:43:57.280 --> 00:44:03.599
Um I think Yeah.
00:44:03.840 --> 00:44:12.000
I well there I think there are canary some so one is is like how many uh bits of and right because what is Ethereum?
00:44:12.320 --> 00:44:13.199
160 bit.
00:44:13.440 --> 00:44:14.239
I forget how many.
00:44:14.400 --> 00:44:18.480
Like in in all these signature schemes, they have like you can put more bits into them.
00:44:18.559 --> 00:44:27.599
Um and like obviously, like we maybe it's 256 bits, like basically every signature scheme, like we use a lot of bits, and they're like hard to break those number of bits.
00:44:27.760 --> 00:44:40.000
Um I think if you start seeing I think there are like canary amounts out there where it's like okay, a certain amount of like$10,000 in a smart contract and like it's 96 bits instead of 256 bits.
00:44:40.719 --> 00:44:43.039
Um, so those are those are kind of interesting, right?
00:44:43.119 --> 00:44:47.440
Because if someone's ramping up and like getting good at it, they're gonna hit the low-hanging fruit first.
00:44:47.599 --> 00:44:59.599
So like if you see someone break those, um, those types of canaries, and again, I don't know the specifics off the top of my head, I should, but like there are canaries out there where uh they should kind of get hit before everything gets hit.
00:44:59.679 --> 00:45:02.559
And so then you're like, oh shit, I gotta go go into bunker mode.
00:45:02.719 --> 00:45:03.039
Okay.
00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:09.440
And I this basically my last question for you on the Doom stuff is like you said what you know Justin proposed is a little bit extreme.
00:45:09.599 --> 00:45:16.559
Bunker mode even sounds a little bit crazy, but is there any precautions you think people should take right now that are more practical or reasonable?
00:45:16.800 --> 00:45:18.400
Like are you doing anything?
00:45:18.719 --> 00:45:22.960
Yeah, I think doing bunker mode is pretty extreme.
00:45:23.119 --> 00:45:31.440
I think you're more likely to fuck up and lose your coins if you try to move them every single time than actually the AI hacking them, especially today.
00:45:31.760 --> 00:45:35.679
I would say look, this is still the biggest risk isn't cryptography.
00:45:35.760 --> 00:45:36.400
It's North Korea.
00:45:36.480 --> 00:45:40.800
And North Korea is getting way better at hacking and like you don't know what kind of zero days are on your computer.
00:45:40.880 --> 00:45:45.920
I I would tell everyone what I tell everyone is for the money you have, use a multi-sig.
00:45:46.320 --> 00:45:54.800
So uh squads on Solana, Gnosis Safe on Ethereum, um, put most of your money in a multi-sig, two out of three.
00:45:54.960 --> 00:46:03.199
I would do two different hardware wallets, so different stacks, and maybe one uh mobile, like mobile wallet on your phone that's pretty well trusted.
00:46:03.360 --> 00:46:07.280
And then, right, like if one stack gets hacked, you're okay.
00:46:07.440 --> 00:46:12.079
Um, you know, and then you have kind of this this kind of recoverability thing.
00:46:12.239 --> 00:46:14.559
That that would be, you know, that's what that's what I personally do.
00:46:14.639 --> 00:46:16.960
So I think that's like kind of the best option right now.
00:46:17.199 --> 00:46:19.039
I feel like we're due for a security stream at some point.
00:46:19.119 --> 00:46:20.079
That was that was good.
00:46:20.320 --> 00:46:21.519
That was that was really good.
00:46:21.679 --> 00:46:23.119
Um, Doug, you're a legend, man.
00:46:23.280 --> 00:46:25.599
I honestly I appreciate you coming on here optimistic.
00:46:25.679 --> 00:46:30.000
I I figured you would be, but I wasn't sure what the vibe was going to be.
00:46:30.159 --> 00:46:33.599
Do you have any like sort of one sign-off that you want to show?
00:46:33.679 --> 00:46:40.719
And then two, anything you think people should read, pay attention to, anything like you should want to direct people to?
00:46:41.119 --> 00:46:42.239
Um, yeah.
00:46:42.559 --> 00:46:46.159
Uh I guess I'll I guess I'll show like the AI stuff we're doing right now.
00:46:46.239 --> 00:46:50.320
So it's Veranos AI B A R A N O S AI.
00:46:50.480 --> 00:47:00.719
Um, we're early, we're just doing early stuff, but I think like we have some cool stuff coming there with like prediction markets and using like AI to like judge like prediction market results and stuff.
00:47:00.800 --> 00:47:02.400
So that's uh that's my show.
00:47:02.880 --> 00:47:04.079
Doug, you're awesome, man.
00:47:04.239 --> 00:47:06.639
I uh look, it's our annual stream.
00:47:06.800 --> 00:47:11.679
Hopefully next one will be uh Yeah, hopefully next one will be in bunker mode next year 2027.
00:47:12.159 --> 00:47:14.079
Uh dude, I appreciate you taking some time out to come on.
00:47:14.239 --> 00:47:14.719
Much love, man.
00:47:14.880 --> 00:47:15.119
Awesome.
00:47:15.280 --> 00:47:15.840
Good to talk to you.
00:47:16.480 --> 00:47:16.960
Have a good one.
00:47:17.119 --> 00:47:17.760
Peace.
00:47:18.000 --> 00:47:18.320
Okay.
00:47:18.880 --> 00:47:21.199
I would okay.
00:47:21.679 --> 00:47:23.920
Did you get answered what you wanted answered?
00:47:24.159 --> 00:47:25.679
I think ish.
00:47:26.000 --> 00:47:26.800
Kind of.
00:47:27.760 --> 00:47:28.320
Maybe.
00:47:28.480 --> 00:47:29.519
I mean, the guy's awesome.
00:47:29.599 --> 00:47:31.199
He's just like a generational human.
00:47:31.280 --> 00:47:32.239
I mean, that's a nice guy.
00:47:32.320 --> 00:47:33.199
I would hang out with that guy.
00:47:33.519 --> 00:47:34.239
Thanks for being here.
00:47:34.639 --> 00:47:35.599
And I'll see you tomorrow.