Buying, Selling & Second Thoughts with Brett Ciancia of Pick Six Previews

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal. I'll that for me. I'm a man, I'm forty. I've heard so many players say, well, I want to be happy.
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Speaker 2: You want to be happy for a day?
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Speaker 1: Edith State is that?
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Speaker 3: Whoo?
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Speaker 1: Whoam and Dan and Tie.
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Speaker 2: Dan, rubertste welcome back. How does it feel to not have to do a.
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Speaker 1: Preview on the side side. I'm under the impression today is our pet League Extensive twenty twenty five and future Cast twenty twenty six league preview. And then you were like, I have so many very specific Coalgate thoughts, and I was like, TI, great, this is your forum. So I don't feel great. I'm still hammering.
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Speaker 4: Well, look, it's funny you mentioned the pat League. I was putting together a PET League lightning round for Week one last night. I started putting the Week one dot, not Week zero, but the week one DOC. And there are seven PAT League teams that are going to be in action, some of them playing teams like Boston College and Air Force and Bowling Green and NIU. So there's gonna be some opportunity here for the PAT League to show.
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Speaker 1: Out, and then we have what the Pat League. Ivy's right that there's like that week two, Week three, some week four, right, because they don't play huge schedules. It's a smaller conference, I believe. So they have that annual the matchup selection. That's great by me as well. I can't wait. I am so excited for pat League football tie who isn't?
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Speaker 2: Who isn't? Well, welcome back in trust ever baller. I am tyeez Dan. This is the solid verbal.
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Speaker 4: Hit follow, hit, subscribe, if you do nothing else, if you really like the show, leave a rating, leave a review. All that stuff goes a long way towards helping people find the show. This is like the prime time for that right now, as we build to the season, people are starting.
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Speaker 2: To pop their heads up out of their little groundhog hole.
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Speaker 1: That league to open up a show in mid August.
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Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, realize this good reason is on the horizon.
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Speaker 4: Here we are gonna get you, hopefully a little bit more in tune for what's ahead. We've got Brett Ciancia from Pick six previews, Who's Gonna Stop by? Brett is down the road from me. I had him on one of our Patreon shows a year ago. I'm glad we're able to make this now more of a wider thing. We're gonna have everybody listening to Brett. He does again. Pick six Previews does an awesome job covering all of the power for in his preview publication, which you can go out and check out at pick sixpreviews dot Com. Want to talk to him about some of the second guessing maybe that has gone on since he put his previews together. On our end, since we put our previews together, I've got a handful of teams. Maybe I know better, maybe I don't. Maybe I'm just a human like the rest of us, and having some self doubt creep in with some of the projections that I put out there. But I want to see if Brett's in a similar spot, maybe where he's wizened up a little bit here Over the course of time.
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Speaker 1: It's a fascinating time and people who do this preview thing for a living, guys like Brett or Bill c or you know, whoever's putting together all the different magazines. It's it's a lot of juggling, and it's a lot of not guessing, but diving into areas you didn't necessarily have to do. Looking at a running back from New Mexico, looking at a safety from UTEP trying to gauge how to project forward what they've accomplished and what their potential may be as their sophomores and juniors into now starting for sc or Oklahoma State or something like that. And so it's fascinating, but I really do appreciate the work that these guys do. We all second guess our preview picks and lack thereof, and you know, in you know, I'm already having the conversations with Jody with an eye, my beautiful bride of She's like, so are you watching games that week zero? Like how many of those games are like super important? And then like is there a Friday night that we could potentially go out for a date because and like so I'm looking through schedules to say, like, Okay, here's how I can navigate my human life with my college football.
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Speaker 2: You can't do it on Friday of week one.
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Speaker 4: It just forget it. Friday a week one is actually pretty loaded. I was looking at this again yesterday. I was just putting this together.
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Speaker 2: Auburn at Baylor, Georgia Tech at Colorado.
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Speaker 4: Those are two biggies at eight pm concurrently, and there are some other ones that I think we will be interested in. But those two in particular on Friday night, and the same is true on Thursday. There are games on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and of course Monday. The first week, first full week of the college football season. So get it in now, yeah, now, to get it in like week two is a little bit more breathing.
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Speaker 1: You didn't mean for that to be graphic, Tie, but it could be to.
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Speaker 2: Be go on your dates. Now get that in now, guys, fellas, get it in.
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Speaker 1: I did notice, by the way, flip side Jody with and I did ask. She was like, is there a particularly like great Friday to have people over to watch football? Because she signed me up to host like school dads for like dad events, because there's like these social events to like watch football on like a fun Friday night. So I looked at the Friday night schedule November fourteenth, Tie, is I believe Louisville, Clemson and Oregon Minnesota Like it's a high quality Friday night of football. So there is that to look forward to as well well. As we get a little bit closer to this. And for those new listeners who aren't familiar with our deal, we will keep you up to date on which windows are the most important, how to build your schedules around this coming college football fall when you need to get it in, as ty Hildemrant, oh God likes to say, I love that.
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Speaker 2: Time October dot com.
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Speaker 1: Now you better not edit that out time. No, that'll stay.
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Speaker 2: I'll keep that in.
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Speaker 1: I'm just okay enough when to get it in by Tiele brand Well on.
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Speaker 4: That note, awkward transition. If you'd like to constant made this podcast subscription pros pro over here yea, and support what Dan and I do. We are an independent entity. The best way that you can support what we do is by going out to verballers dot com. Sign up for a Patreon tier. You can get the episodes without the ads, get the bonus episodes that we do. I'm about to spin up Run the Board, which is our week to week and season long pick them game where we give out weekly prizes. That's available to the folks that are on one of the certified or premium tiers. So go check that out at verballers dot com. The other thing that I would add then I'll shut up and we'll get to our interview. If you do, go to overballers dot com. I've got the link out there now. I did it earlier than I expected. The preseason Verballer Top twelve pole is now open for business. You don't have to be on a paid tier for this. You just if you sign up as a paid member or as a free member. Just build an account, go to verballers dot com. You will have access to that pole. We just want to get as many people as we can to vote in the thing. Like you see preseason polls that are dropping left and right. Now we have our own. It's only a top twelve, but blew it out this year. You have one hundred and thirty six teams to pick from. If we want to be complete, you pick your favorite twelve, you rank them in order. I'll put together the results of that poll on an upcoming episode before we get to week zero. So go and check that out again. It's v R B A L L e r s dot com.
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Speaker 1: Take the power back, get your vote in.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, Dan, As you know, as you say, often, all the greats are from PA, are they not.
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Speaker 1: It's true, it seems to be true.
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Speaker 4: I'm the outlier, but yeah, joining us from the mean streets of Chester County. About an hour or so south of me. Very pleased to welcome Brett siancea back to the solid veribals. Sir, welcome back.
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Speaker 1: How are you.
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Speaker 3: Hey, Tyan Dan? Thanks for having me on. Yeh, the mean streets of Chester County.
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Speaker 2: I like that.
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Speaker 3: Moving over to Delaware County in a week so oh, you know, staying in the area, but now a full blown Delco guy. But yeah, thanks for having me on. I can't wait to break down this season with you guys. Congrats on all that you've built.
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Speaker 1: You know.
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Speaker 3: I like to reference you guys as the godfathers of college football podcasting because you guys were first. But you know, you're funny, you're insightful, you kept it going for over a decade.
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Speaker 2: So pleasure to be back on with you guys. Dan.
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Speaker 4: We just bring them on for the Delco and the compliments. The Delco and the compliments not only the first. As the world eventually crumbles with the smoldering heat of the sun, we will be the last ones still broadcasting questioning a decision by Wazoo to go for it on fourth and nine like that's you know, this is what we do. Well before we dive in, Brett for people who maybe aren't familiar with your work. Can you give us like the thirty second elevator pitch on Pick six and what you do what you have been doing since twenty twelve.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks well.
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Speaker 3: I launched Pick six Previews in twenty twelve College Football Preview Company, and then in twenty nineteen, I launched my first hard copy magazine.
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Speaker 2: So it's like the ones you see on newsstands.
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Speaker 3: But they claim to face is that over the last ten years, in the last five years, I've been great, the most accurate predictor in the country.
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Speaker 2: That's stats in dot com.
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Speaker 3: They go in great all the publications based on conference predictions, and I've got the title.
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Speaker 2: I say, if they're keeping score, I want to win.
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Speaker 3: So I got the ten year and the five year titles, became a Heisman voter, All American voter, and yeah, just really excited to break it down.
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Speaker 2: It's a one man show.
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Speaker 3: So I do all sixty eight teams, you know, my graphics, my advanced stats, but then all the writing too, So I try and strike a balance numbers in writing and give you really a full narrative of each program. You know, no acronyms, no abbreviations, no jargon. It's straightforward, it's digestible, actionable advice for the season.
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Speaker 4: I was going to ask if you've considered adding more acronyms. We don't need to go there. Do they give you a belt or anything to like commemorate the championship? I would love Yeah, I would love some hardware. Nothing yet, just a little black and white grid that shows the standings.
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Speaker 3: It's really boring. It doesn't make for good tweets. But yeah, i'd love a trophy or something to rep here.
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Speaker 1: An actual crystal ball, I think is the yeah worthwhile gift here?
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Speaker 3: Yeah, okay, yeah, just resurrect the old BCS trophy, the old trick football there.
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Speaker 2: We could use that.
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Speaker 3: I mean, it's the logo, it's the Pick six logo namesake right there.
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Speaker 1: That's true.
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Speaker 4: If you had the opportunity to bring back the BCS Brett, would you absolutely?
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Speaker 2: I would, and I would tweak it a little bit.
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Speaker 3: So here's the thing. I love the four team number. I love the number of four teams. I think that's perfect for college football. But maybe the selection processes what people were hung up about. You know, with a committee behind closed doors, it's secretive. All these guys are connected to conferences and schools. So if you could pair maybe some kind of objective BCS formula something like that with a four team structure, that's my ideal. I've been fighting for that for years. I was in the minority crowd. Everyone wanted expansion. Now I think it's gone a bit too far with the expansion and people are trying to go back in time. It's not going back. I mean, the TV money's out there, it's over. But I would like to keep that a smaller cost season bracket and make those Saturdays in the fall even more important like they were when I got really into college football.
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Speaker 2: Oh man, he's singing your language.
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Speaker 1: I mean it's everything to I mean, I think I'm a six guy just because I like having a little bit of inclusion in you know, a Mountain West champion or you know, the American Champion. I like that element to it. And I don't know at this point, like you can argue till you're blue in the face, but like, hey, we've got four power conferences in this moment, we have four Power conference champions, a G four to five team and Notre Dame and or or somebody else getting that at large. It's great by me. I don't know, Yeah, it seems I would.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would take that in the second.
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Speaker 3: And it's funny when you see these coaches and media days talking about expansion. I think Eli Drinkwitz was calling for a thirty team bracket, and they say things like, oh, we want to prove ourselves on the field, you know, give us access to a championship on the field.
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Speaker 2: My thing is that's called November. You know what I'm saying. You already have that.
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Speaker 3: The games are on campus like everyone loves and their elimination games. So yeah, I think we already have a playoff structure built into the sea and it's not as black and white. And I know pro sports fans love a very black and white structure of how to make a playoff. But we've already had that built into the regular season. So that's what drew me to college football originally was really the chase of perfection. Maybe one loss and you still make it if you're lucky. But this like nine and three talk and eight and four, I saw reference this year to make a playoff. I don't know, it's going away from what we love about college football.
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Speaker 4: Man, if we had a thirty team bracket, Dan, we would need the divorce lawyer on speed dial. Absolutely, we would if that came to fruition. Good hell, look all right, let me bring it back here to the reason that we brought you on, Brett. We've said this many times over on this show. This is ultimately a show about honesty. So as we've been recording our previews since what the end of June, Dan, I mean, we've been doing this forever now it feels that way, Brett. You've been doing it for the better part of the year. I'm sure there is like this very human emotion that creeps in when you spend so much time forming opinions on this, on anything, which is you start the second guess yourself. So today is the moment for us to maybe call out some of those things. Now that we've perhaps put some distance between ourselves and the takes. Where has that doubt crept in? Where have we started to have some of those second thoughts? Why don't we start here, Brett? Since you are the guest of honor, where have you gotten the most pushback from readers of Pick six previews?
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Speaker 3: Well, every year there's a couple of these teams that come up and the fan bases get really upset at me.
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Speaker 2: And the team this year is Illinois.
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Speaker 3: Okay, oh, team that had a special season last year, ten wins near Brett Bielima, I thought heck of a coaching job by him, and they grinded out a lot of close wins. One score wins over Nebraska over Rutgers Northwestern was closed Purdue fifty to forty nine. They barely survived that one. All to say, it was a great season, but in my advanced numbers that doesn't project forward. They were ranked thirty fifth of my Game Greater formula last year, nowhere near a top ten. Not really the stat profile you look for in a top ten teams. So you know, I try and separate the two. You know, great season last year, but forward looking to twenty twenty five, I just don't see it. I know they return the bulk of their roster, but I mean, I think that roster has already hit it ceiling last year. So I came in selling Illinois hard. I've got the ninth in the Big Ten alone, thirty second nationally, and you saw the coaches pull in the AP had them twelve. So of course you're going to get pushback from people in Champagne. Not many friends over there this year. That's one of them.
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Speaker 1: They're not celebrating you at Papa Dell's.
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Speaker 3: Okay nah, Yeah, that's probably the biggest pushback this year. And other ones, smaller cases like SMU. I'm really selling what else ye at Georgia maybe not picking them, but we'll get into Georgia for the second guessing hunches part of this. I'm starting to worry about that one. But yeah, Illinois and South Carolina I'm fading too this year. You know again special season last year. I love Leonora Sellers. He's absolutely electric to watch. But when you look at the recruiting profiles in this conference, I mean they're barely keeping up with the Joneses, like eleventh within the conference in recruiting, so everyone else gets stronger, they're kind of staying the same. I think they take a step back in the win column. So those are two that are in the ap that I'm selling.
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Speaker 1: What is game Grader? You don't need to tell me the exact formula, but like, what does it look at when you are evaluating a team's performances from last year? And where can game grader say? You know what they the record wasn't there, but the way they performed was actually interesting projecting forward.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, Well, you know, I do all sixty eight teams and that's across four conferences. So I needed a way to numerically be able to grade these teams against each other, you know, a middle tier acc versus a big twelve that never play each other, no common opponents. So I designed this formula and basically what it is. It takes all the key stats of a game, you know, the yardage margins, the per play, explosive plays, I mean, a bunch of other proprietary stuff, gets it down to one number, and then I adjusted for the opponent's strength too, because you know, blowing out Rice is not the same as blowing out Alabama. So all the key stats of a game and then opponent adjusted to get to a number basically a game grade. And then over the course of twelve games, fifteen games, five seasons, I can start to see a trend using the game Greater formula. So it's become really effective at predicting games and also upcoming seasons.
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Speaker 2: So that's really the key number. I have a couple other advanced stats in the.
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Speaker 3: Book that you can see and it's all visually appealing, you know, it's not like it's not like Calculus.
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Speaker 2: You can see it.
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Speaker 3: It's color coded and make it very accessible. But that's the gist of the game grader.
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Speaker 4: So one of my big second guessing slash. I don't know what I'm trying to say. I'm doubting myself on Miami. Okay, so we did our acc preview. I guess back at the early part of July, at the time that I went through the canes, I came away feeling very pessimistic. And then I looked around to see what everybody else was saying, because at the point that Dan and I were recording, nobody else had really put out preview content. You know, I had them down as an eight and four team. The comments that I have gotten have made me feel pretty crazy about that. My reasoning for it is that I look at the offense and I say it has to look different because there's no cam Ward. Carson Beck versus cam Ward, those are two very very different players. They have a good line, which we know that crystal Ball prefers. They're going to want to run it. I just think the pace is going to be slower. I see situations up and down this schedule where maybe the offense gets stuck in the mud against a better defensive front, they can't be as effective on the ground. They are less proven out wide this season, and I could see there being a little bit more resistance perhaps than meets the eye. Now you can imagine what the comments have been in response to that. Right, there is a I think decent enough backfield. Granted maybe not as proven, but certainly there are guys back there that I think you can trust, especially behind a line life this the guys that they do have out wide, It's not like these are no name caliber receivers, and obviously Carson Beck has played at a very high level. You compliment that with the defense that I do believe will be improved, I'm basically making a case against myself here. Okay, So Miami is one of those teams, and especially as a Notre Dame fan, Miami is one of those teams that I have really grappled with since doing that preview, and if anything, I think I am more inclined to give them more benefit of the doubt than I did.
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Speaker 2: You know a month ago, Dan, when we did these shows.
00:18:32
Speaker 3: Well, with Miami, I'm coming at it from the other angle. Actually, I might have sold them too much at the beginning. I had them really in a dead heat with Clemson. I really consider Miami to win the whole conference outright, And that's how high I was on them. I scaled it back before I published. So we're kind of meeting in the middle here. I was really high on Miami, and I'm kind of selling them a little bit more. Here's some questions that Miami has is you know, last year we talked about how close they were to the playoff, and they blew that big lead against Syracuse.
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Speaker 2: They were up twenty one nine.
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Speaker 3: Then they blew the game against Georgia Tech. But a lot of people stop the discussion there. You got to ticket further. They should have lost to Virginia Tech. There was that questionable fifteen minute long review in that walk off hail Mary pass that could have flipped col was up thirty five to ten on him on a late Friday night, and a lot of people went to bed thinking that was a blowout loss, and Miami rallied miraculously to come back. So while we can say that they should have been in the playoff, you could also say they could have or should have been eight and four on the other side of the coins. So with that starting point, Yeah, Carson Beck's a big question for me. I was down in Tuscaloosa to see Georgia versus Alabama last year and it was night and day. First half, Carson Becky threw three picks. He was seeing ghosts. They fell behind big time.
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Speaker 2: Second half. It was like a Heisman candidate. So he's hot and cold. And then the defense.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, you're right that if they slow the pace down on offense, that puts more of a burden on the defense. They have to be sharper than last year. And you're going with a coordinator change with Corey Heatherman coming in from Minnesota. They hit the port really hard. You wonder about those two variables, if that clicks or not. So yeah, I mean, like I said, from the other direction, I started really high on Miami and I'm fading it back to kind of meet you in the middle here.
00:20:11
Speaker 4: Dan, do you have a team that or a couple teams that you have looked at as you know, your second guess in yourself. Now, in hindsight, it's not that I'm second guessing per se. It's like I planted a flag about Miszoo on our SEC preview, in large part because of the schedule, in large part because they've been quietly and consistently at least pretty good these past few years. It seems they've lost some dumb games. There's just there's so many transfers on this defense, even transfers who came in last year and this year and are going to be rotating in Couple that with bo Pribula, couple that with an offense that took a step back in terms of explosion last season.
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Speaker 1: I understand. I can visualize why Miszoo would be very good this year regardless of schedule. But SEC is just tough, man. The SEC is just like an average SEC team is still any given week going to be very tough. And so Miszoo has the capability to win a bunch of games, but they still have the capability of you know, looking like what they did against Texas A and M last year. And I know, obviously Brady Cook had injury issues last year, but that's the big one. They feel like they could swing anywhere between you know, seven and five, ten and two, six and six, Like there's a lot of varied outcomes to me on this missoo schedule. Does that make any sense? Brett?
00:21:29
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you know, talking about Illinois fans, Missouri fans are all up in my comments too, because I did not have them in the preseason top twenty five and caught a lot of flak for that as well. I agree with you with some of those concerns. I mean the quarterback transition. Brady Cook, I mean he was a Warrior last year. There was the game I think it was Auburn one of those games. He was injured, went to the hospital in the middle of the game, had whatever procedure done, came back in the fourth quarter and led the game winning drive.
00:21:55
Speaker 2: I mean, absolute warrior. So yeah, you switch over to both.
00:22:00
Speaker 3: Bulah, you got a little bit of play at Penn State, but a three star recruit, it's unproven. And really what made Missouri special the last couple of years was their receiver corps, Luther Burden being the headliner. I mean, it was five stars at a program that never really had five stars. So you take away your quarterback and the best position room, the receiver room, and it's a lot of questions for me. So I've ended up fading Missouri too. I had them twelfth in the SEC. You're right, it's just such a competitive league. I mean, you know, who are you going to put them above? In South Carolina They're they're a legit top twenty five team, and Florida and Oklahoma or Veteran and so it's just such a deep league. I had to put somebody twelfth and put Missouri down there.
00:22:38
Speaker 4: My theory on MISSOO this year, Brett, is because of, as you elluded, the receiver room and some of the changes there. Because of Perbulah's skill set, which you know, I feel like I saw enough of to understand what he's all about in his limited action at Penn State. It feels like they need to bring this offense more into balance, if nothing more, run the ball a lot more than we saw last season. Does that seem like attracks what you've been previewing for MISSOO this year.
00:23:05
Speaker 3: Well, think back two years ago. They had Cody Schrader. This was a guy, a walk on Division two type guy, a grinder, and he went for a ton of yards. I think he got all first team All SEC. Last year they didn't have that, so they were really the pass heavy. The receiver room was the key feature.
00:23:20
Speaker 2: They might go back to that.
00:23:21
Speaker 3: Like you said, the run game, they brought in a guy, a mad hardy from I think Louisiana. Monroe had a ton of yards a lot after contact. He was getting some ashton Gent comparisons.
00:23:30
Speaker 2: So love to hear that.
00:23:32
Speaker 3: If you're a Missouri fan, maybe get behind a big offensive line and run the ball a bit more. So. Yeah, that was one of the All Transfer You know, it's funny, I have an All American team and All SEC team, now an All transfer team because there's so much player.
00:23:45
Speaker 2: Move you have to you have no choice, right.
00:23:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, he got the All Transfer spot in the SEC running back, so they got a good one there.
00:23:52
Speaker 1: I'm curious because this isn't really a gambling angle, but it just in terms of like who you should invest interest in early on in the season. And I asked this because one of my pet this. I guess it's an acronym, right, but my QFB, my quest for boring a lot of teams could simply be so much better if they took care of boring things more often, right that, like stay ahead of the sticks a little bit more often, tackle a guy to make it fourth and two instead of you know, fourth in inches, like they're just little things. Who could who are your beneficiaries? When you look at the teams that you've looked at this year across these conferences that like, man, if they took care of such boring things just a little bit more often, it seems like it would make a world of difference.
00:24:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got two for you. One from the SEC would be Auburn. And this is a team that in my advanced stats which look at you know, the offense and defense, their performances top twenty both sides of the ball last year on offense and defense. Okay, how'd they go? Five and seven? You look at it. It was the worst field goal kicking in the country deadline. I think it was like under fifty percent make. It was unbelievable. Leaving all those points on the field. And then five turnovers in a couple games, five turnovers against Cal five turnovers another loss they had. So when you look back at it, five and seven, but probably four of those could have flipped the wins conservatively for them, flipped the wins if they would have taken care of the ball a bit and then made some chip shot field goals. That's it. That's all that had to change. So on top of that, they had a great recruiting class, another round of transfers. The receiver room is absolutely loaded. I think that my number two receiver group outside of Columbus. And then they bring in a five star Jackson Arnold, who I know he struggled to Oklahoma. I think there were other problems there last year on offense. So a second year SEC starter there with Arnold. So yeah, Auburn, I think it's going to take a lot of steps forward if they could just kick some field goals and not turn the ball over five times. Similar to Nebraska from the Big Ten.
00:25:52
Speaker 2: This is a team.
00:25:52
Speaker 3: If you watch them, they're shooting themselves in the foot every game, every year for like a decade. I mean I put a stat out there in the book a couple years go, the turnover margin the last five years, the last ten years, even going back to like the Frank Solich era, they're dead last in America.
00:26:07
Speaker 2: I don't know what the curse is out there.
00:26:10
Speaker 3: You know, maybe by winning that ninety seven national title, they just they sold their soul to the devil or something crazy. Because the turnover look is unbelievable. So you wonder is this the year that they finally get it back on their side. I don't know, but they've gone under their win total for ten straight years from Vegas. Something's got to click there. So if they can just take care of the football and get some better special teams play. You know, they had a negative yardage punt a couple of years ago. It's the stuff that doesn't happen to other programs. It's all in Nebraska special teams.
00:26:38
Speaker 2: And they clean that up. They should be eight and four in that area.
00:26:42
Speaker 1: I'm curious as for your your game grader, who from last season had a record that wasn't necessarily indicative of quality and that you are using that to sort of, you know, extrapolate and push forward. Like, guys, this team was actually pretty good last year. They couldn't get it done. Maybe they weren't boring enough and so in I guess that's the Auburn case. But like this team, Yeah they went four and eight, but like they go nine to three, no problem this year. Do you have any candidates for that? Yeah?
00:27:14
Speaker 3: Well, on the negative side, I already hit on it with Illinois. I think that was you know, ten and three. That was not your typical ten win team if you look at it statistically, the optimist angle, I would go with USC, and I'm scared of saying this. I mean talking about second guessing and hunching or hunches. I'm a little worried about doing this. But USC they were seven and five last year. I think all five are one score losses. They were really close in a lot of games, a lot of late leads in the fourth quarter that were blown, and you wonder, I mean, you know that projects four better. So in terms of game grader, they were fifteenth in the country last year in game greater, but seven and five overall, so something doesn't match up there. I think they were better than the record showed. And then when you project forward to twenty twenty five, again, one of the biggest spenders in this nil market, you know how expensive it is to go get these top trains.
00:28:00
Speaker 2: I think they were number one or number two in the Big ten and spending for that. So they're pumping the roster.
00:28:07
Speaker 3: Second year quarterback with Jade Mayava, second year coordinator on defense with Danton Lynn. So I think they were better than the record showed. I don't know who's going to claim fourth place in this big ten. It's wide open. I see a distinct three, but then I don't know who to put it forth. I mean, I actually ended up tying USC in Michigan. Both kind of have one side of the ball figured out and they're working on the other half. But I think USC is a candidate for better than the record showed last year.
00:28:31
Speaker 2: Should improve.
00:28:32
Speaker 4: So I've got USC on my list. With respect to second guessing. Second guessing YouTube commenters got after.
00:28:40
Speaker 1: You time, Well, they did, they did, they did.
00:28:43
Speaker 2: Listen, I'm a human. Two.
00:28:46
Speaker 4: I have to be real with the for baller hood. I made a comment that I think this team is worse this year, and I caught a lot of flak for that. I think the defense will be better because I believe in Dan Lynn. I think he's the real deal. I believe in the receivers. I think they've got an incredible tandem to wide receivers. I'm really not sure about the rest of it.
00:29:04
Speaker 2: Brett.
00:29:05
Speaker 4: You know, and I take your point, and you probably know better than I with respect to you know who they're bringing in and how that fits in from a personnel standpoint, given the packages they want to run and the schemes that are at play and all that. But I guess maybe what I am speaking more to is some uncertainty around Mayava, who I think is a great athlete and a lot of fun to watch, but has to definitely sand over some of those rougher edges in his game if they want to take that next step. I am a little bit spooked by the fact that they are reaching out to smaller schools to plug holes maybe along the line, maybe in the backfield. That might not be fair because as we talked about with Oregon, they're all world left tackle. Literally a world is from Nevada, right, So it's not fair maybe to look down on smaller schools the way that I think I did when I talked about USC, But that creeps me out a little bit. USC be better than that, not having to go down a level to bring guys up to plug those holes.
00:30:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's some valid critiques here.
00:30:08
Speaker 3: That's why again I was torn about who to even put fourth place with my Ava. I don't know, is he really a Lincoln Riley quarterback? Is he a five star Blue Chipper? Is going to go in the first round and push for a Heisman?
00:30:19
Speaker 2: I don't know. I think that's still an uncertainty, But do they need that?
00:30:23
Speaker 4: I guess the counterpoint would be, we've seen that from Lincoln Riley teams before and that's sort of his calling card. But if there is enough talent out there, and if the defense does take a step forward, do they need Mayava to be a Heisman candidate?
00:30:36
Speaker 2: Well, okay, I think at receiver, I agree that they're stacked.
00:30:38
Speaker 3: I mean, they have a couple of Blue Chippers in there, Makai Lemon, Jacobe Land. They actually stole Utah's number one receiver after springball, you know, witting him, goes out, he calls Zacharias Williams, he's our number one. We're going to build the offense around him. Then he leaves the next day for USC. So I think they're set at receiver. But I'll agree with you there at running back and offensive line. Running back gad to go to the juco level. And then at the offensive line. Yeah, they got Syracuse's center Reid, and then a couple other transfers that were not former Blue Chippers. They were like two star, three star guys from high school. So you wouldn't really expect that from USC, you know. And I just want Lincoln Riley to win enough this year to survive to be able to then coach the twenty twenty six recruiting class because I don't know if you saw, I know, really early in that cycle, but number one in the country recruiting ranking next year hopefully they hopefully they hold on to that and finish in the top five and maybe that could be a turning point for the whole program.
00:31:29
Speaker 2: But they got to do enough to get to that point.
00:31:31
Speaker 3: I don't think any USC fan would have signed up for seven and five and losing in the Las Vegas Bowl by year three, So they got to get it turned around. And there's definitely some valid critiques there on the offensive line running back.
00:31:41
Speaker 1: They did win the Vegas Bowl, to be clear, they did come back and win that Vegas Bawl at the w Yeah, yeah, they came back and beat A and M. But yeah, point taken.
00:31:49
Speaker 4: The other team that I feel I might have been too harshawn was Arizona. And this is not to say that Arizona is going to make some dark horse run at the Big twelve.
00:31:58
Speaker 2: I'm not saying.
00:31:59
Speaker 4: That, but I do think that there is at least a little bit more structure now with how Brent Brennan is running the system.
00:32:06
Speaker 2: Like.
00:32:06
Speaker 4: One thing that became apparent to me after doing our preview was that Noah Fafida was kind of on his own last year. They didn't have a dedicated quarterback coach. This year, you know, regardless of how we feel about Seth Daggy, there is definitely a little bit more attention on Noah Fafeda, on trying to give him structure and trying to move things forward. It sounds more broadly like Brent Brennan tried to run Arizona the way he ran San Jose State, and they're very different programs. So I think I discounted maybe the structure that he's put in place now, and I discounted the fact that there could be some sort of second year coach boost that, you know, maybe in the haze of the middle of the night when I'm putting all the stuff together, I didn't quite see for the Cats. Again, they're not going ten and two, But I think I might have been a little too low on them, given the fact that perhaps there has been some change going on behind the scenes with Arizona.
00:32:57
Speaker 3: I've got them projected towards the bottom of a conference but to your point, you know, all throughout my magazine, my book, on the radio, I'm always talking about that second year bonus. I mean I brought up with USC coordinator, bonus quarterback, bonus head coach. So I did also overlook that with Arizona. I really gave them no benefit of the doubt. They're having a second year bonus with Brent Brennan. Who knows, maybe they do get some you know, catch some fire. The pessimist angle would be they keep losing their best players to the portal, a lot of them going north to Seattle to follow their old coach, Jed Fish. He took a good round of them the first time in twenty twenty four, and then another round this year. I mean Jonah Coleman, they're running back, Jacob Manu, they're all conference linebacker both, they're all conference corners with Price Sock and Tacario Davis. It just seems like a one way portal from Tucson up to Seattle.
00:33:43
Speaker 2: So that worries me.
00:33:45
Speaker 3: And I don't think they backfilled enough, you know, all right, so you lose your starters and your stars to Seattle. In Washington, did they bring anybody in?
00:33:51
Speaker 2: And that's where I'm starting to worry with Arizona.
00:33:53
Speaker 3: So yeah, again, I don't see them competing for a Bowl or anything, but maybe they do get a bonus their second year.
00:34:00
Speaker 4: Do you have any teams that you're second guessing now that you've put the publication out.
00:34:05
Speaker 3: Well, at the top of the SEC, I know that, you know. I like to dig into the random teams too, but I mean sometimes the teams at.
00:34:10
Speaker 2: The top you got to cover.
00:34:11
Speaker 3: And with Texas, Bama, Georgia, this trio, I really like Alabama. I have them playing in Atlanta in the SEC title game. I like what they brought back. I like their coordinator, change everything. So Bama I'm set on. It's this Texas Georgia debate that I'm kind of flipping on. All of a sudden, I put Texas to win the conference. I had them above Georgia and I penciled them in up there, and now I'm starting to wonder, did we overseell Georgia. I mean, this is a team that's been kind of a mini dynasty recently. But what caught my eye was I was building out what I call my advanced rosters. Basically, it's a too deep where I color code a all where they a four star, a five star if they were a transfer where they come from where they all conference. Anyway, like a visual too deep. And I'm going through Georgia and there's eleven five stars on the defense alone.
00:34:56
Speaker 2: I mean, that's unbelievable.
00:34:57
Speaker 3: I don't even think there's eleven five stars in the whole AC year, the Big twelve combined. It's like the talent that has stockpiled at Georgia, especially on their defense. I think I might have overlooked right in the preview magazine. So I do have them fifth nationally, but maybe they should be one of those teams playing in Atlanta because Texas has their concerns too. You know, I penciled in Texas to win it. A lot of people did, and maybe without really thinking too deeply on it. They lose four offensive line starters, they lose five NFL draft picks off the defense, they lose a Thorpe winner, which JEDB.
00:35:27
Speaker 2: Barron.
00:35:29
Speaker 3: They're resetting in a lot of spots, So maybe we were too quick to just put Texas there at the top team that lost to Georgia twice last year, by the way, So that's one I'm starting to regret, and I have to see in all those blue chips on paper starting to worry about Georgia.
00:35:42
Speaker 1: When you look around the sport right now. Actually, let's I want to drill down to the Big Twelve. The Big Twelve had a champion who was picked to finish in last place last season. You mentioned the rosters that have four stars and five stars or all conference transfers. The Big Twelve doesn't recruit in the way that the SEC and Big Ten do. It's incredibly entertaining, it's high quality football. How do you sort out a conference that each team has very specific flaws, nobody truly separates themselves, or no three teams truly separate themselves from a recruiting standpoint? How do you evaluate a conference like that and sort out teams addor near the top.
00:36:24
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's my fourteenth year doing Pick six previews. I think this is the most wide open conference of them all over fourteen years, and it's just it's crazy. So the coaches did a poll at Media Days and they picked Kansas State versus Iowa State as their championship game. And I looked and I have them sixth and seventh in the Big Twelve. So out both of the outside my top five. That's how wide open it is. You could argue seven or eight teams to win this thing, and they each have the little thirty second elevator pitch, like you said, pros and cons for both. With Arizona State, that's where I ultimately went with. And you know it might be some chalk, but you look it back at last year advanced stats wise, they were. They were a real conference champion. They bring back twenty starters. I know they lose Camp Scataboo, the do it all running back, but really everybody's back. You got a first round draft grade at quarterback a lot to like from Arizona State.
00:37:12
Speaker 2: So that was my pick. But then from there, I mean, Texas Tech is a mystery.
00:37:16
Speaker 3: They bring in all this this oil money funding and they signed the top transfer class in the country, twelve Blue Chippers a Texas Tech they sign.
00:37:23
Speaker 2: That's more than the rest of the conference combined.
00:37:26
Speaker 3: So that's your talent. Play Kennet Jel, Kennet Jell quick enough, that's the deal. But I had that have them strong enough to play Arizona State in the conference title game, and then real quickly, I mean Baylor, you could argue them. They they call fire over the second half of the year, won seven straight. They bring back pretty much the whole roster. Ken Dave Randa works some magic on defense he has in the past. That's his forte Utah, you know they're reloading on offense, bringing in a whole new scheme. Devin dan Pire electric to watch. He's very elusive in the pocket. Should get some stable quarterback play that's been missing due to injury at Utah for so long. So those are my top four. TCU is a wildcard. I like Kansas State and Iowa State as well. But again, you could pick one out of eight teams to win this thing, and it's fascinating. So you don't have a top ten team, a lot of top forty, a lot of top twenty five caliber, so it makes for great football.
00:38:18
Speaker 2: I love watching this conference.
00:38:19
Speaker 4: To what end do you take talent into account when you're putting together projection projections, putting together previews, because you know it certainly has a place. Not everybody hits, I know, but latter friend Bud has the blue Chip ratio, which has been sort of like a staple metric in college football circles for a good while. Now, but like, how do you incorporate that into whatever calculations you are running on your end.
00:38:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's important, It's very important. I would say recruiting and talent acquisition. That's really the backbone of a program. And if you want to win national titles or win conferences, you have to have great recruiting. That's the starting point, or nowadays great transfer activity. Look at old Men, look at Texas Tech, that kind of thing. So it's definitely a starting point. But I don't end there. I think a lot of a lot of people like to put way too much emphasis on just the recruiting. I think you need to have schemes that work, You need to have stability with the coaching staff. Nowadays it's roster retention, not just recruiting, but can you keep the recruits on campus. Talk to head coaches, talk to coordinators about recruiting and transfers, and they start out with the day after the season. They're recruiting their own players. They're recruiting their own starters, re recruiting them to stay on campus. So the retention game has become a new facet of college football.
00:39:35
Speaker 2: So I think recruiting is important.
00:39:36
Speaker 3: It's the starting point, but then schemes that work retention, and then you got to got to go player develop and all that. So I'd say it's crucial, but not the only piece, and it definitely factors in, but there's a lot more to it.
00:39:49
Speaker 2: Do you like have to redo your preview eight times? Like when do you start this?
00:39:54
Speaker 4: And I mean seriously, because we have so much activity that goes on even in the spring window. I mean, I don't need to know the whole process, but how often are you redoing some of these team previews because of late action in the portal or just otherwise?
00:40:10
Speaker 2: College football is so fluid. I'm calling it the retslof test.
00:40:15
Speaker 3: And it was whether your magazine and preview was able to get that in there, and mine, I think was the only one to have it in of course, with the BYU starting quarterback Jake Rhetslof leaving campus mid July, all the magazines had already been printed and they got them, you know, on the all Big twelve team and got BYU in the top ten. And I end up catching that the day before I published the twenty twenty five editions, so.
00:40:36
Speaker 2: I have him out of there.
00:40:37
Speaker 3: I have bear Bachmeyer the New four Star as their starting quarterback, and so that was a you know, I'm later in the game than others, but that's it's a pro and acon I mean, I use it to my advantage to try and be up to date. But it's such a long process. I think back to when I launched US in twenty twelve. It was very simple. In twenty twelve. Think back, you had a BCS, you had something called the Big East. It was a simpler time, and what you would do you would just have your recruiting rankings, your returning starters, and that's it. Maybe a couple guys that went pro early, but that was pretty much the formula nowadays. To answer your question, I mean, it's kind of a writing in March, a rewriting in April, and then a final writing in July. There are the transfer portal windows in December and April the post spring window. But there are times where I have to throw out the entire draft. I mean, I think about Colorado a couple of years back. I wrote their team three of you up. I thought it was great in April, and then again I had to just throw the whole thing in the trash and just start over because like seventy players transferred out, So it's way more at its it's complicated if by you know, tenfold, but I do think you know to spend.
00:41:41
Speaker 2: I think it makes for a better product.
00:41:42
Speaker 3: I think it makes for a more valuable resource to the reader because it's hard to follow not only your own team, but your opponent's teams, your teams and your conference. So once August hits, people were like, you know, who's even on my roster? Who are these players? So with the preview magazine here you can go through it. It's very readable. You can see who left, who's coming in, which ones matter? You know, you can just say that they have ten transfers, are they good players, how they do with their last school, how are they greated as transfers. So it's complicated things a lot, but I think that makes for a more valuable product here.
00:42:12
Speaker 4: So with respect to the game grader that I know Dan asked about, and you've mentioned a couple times over here, you said that it has predictive qualities, what are those qualities with respect to Week one in twenty twenty five. Because it's a loaded slate, there are a bunch of ranked matchups. I think the headliners. The obvious headliner at least on the first Saturday is Texas at Ohio State. But we got a bunch of these games now. So as you are looking forward, because I know you do work in season as well, what are your numbers saying about what this slate looks like in Week one?
00:42:47
Speaker 2: Where is your eye drawn? Yeah?
00:42:49
Speaker 3: Well even with Week zero, I like that Farmer Gedden game that Kansas State Iowa State. I like Kansas State minus two and a half there or minus three wherever you get at a field goal spread neutral sites, so throw the home field advantage out. But I think Kansas State's a more proven product this year. I know Iowa State was picked by many, picked by the coaches in the conference to win it. I just don't see if Iowa State they lose a lot from that defense. They're a team that win, they're veteran, they're very strong, but I think they're kind of going through a little bit of a transition. The receivers are gone, a couple of pieces from the offensive line, a lot of the defense gone. So I like Kansas State there in the Week zero kickoff game. Some other ones from Week one, Nebraska minus six and a half, against Cincinnati. I think Nebraska took a lot of steps forward here on their offensive line and their receivers from the transfer portal, trying to give their five star Dylan Royola more people around him. I think last year it was a pretty broken offense. I know he flashed at times, but again, an eighteen year old true freshman, I think in his second season, with proven offensive line starters, with proven number one receivers, I think you're going to see a better Nebraska here in rules third year. So I like Nebraska to cover that touchdown one more. I'll give you a here Utah Ucla. I saw that spread came in in a touchdown. I think Utah is going to destroy Ucla. I mean they're the more physical team. Ucla is a team that we talked about with Arizona, how their starters are getting poached by other programs. Same with UCLA. And I know they have the headliner with Nico that kind of is the exception to the rule, but otherwise this roster was carved up. So I see Utah going in there and smacking them. So I'll go with Utah minus a touchdown there in the opener, but yeah, plenty of plenty of angles, and that's the beauty of I'm starting pick six.
00:44:27
Speaker 2: Plus this year. Yeah, yeah, I was gonna ask you about the season feature.
00:44:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, so all the information from the magazine, but updated weekly, all my game greater, all my advanced stats, even a little bit more of that against the spread trend a.
00:44:39
Speaker 2: Little, you know, leaning into that angle a little.
00:44:40
Speaker 3: Bit more for those kind of listeners and readers. So all that situational splits you look for is in there, pixel cool.
00:44:47
Speaker 4: I wanted to ask you real quick about Texas Ohio State, because I know Dan and I have had a little bit of back and forth over this one. I made a comment somewhere along the way, and I forget where exactly that I think Texas is the I think Texas has definitely beating Ohio State. Of course, you talking definitely's when you're speaking in July, and a lot is subject to change, including some of this self doubt that inevitably is going to creep in.
00:45:11
Speaker 2: But I still believe that.
00:45:12
Speaker 4: I still think because Ohio State is so much new, they're obviously still going to be loaded look at the roster, but I think given enough back on the Texas side, they are probably eager to get this rematch with Ohio State, maybe get a little bit better in some of those short yardist situations that I know you alluded to Brett in your preview magazine with arch Manning and some of his mobility. Do you have a lean in that game?
00:45:37
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean I have Texas number two in the country. I have Ohio State number three, and they're pretty much even with the game being in Columbus, I'm going to go with a higher state here. Play game really tough to forecast too, because, like you said, so much turnover on both rosters. I put Texas early in our show on my category of second guessing and worrying about just because all the roster transition they had, I know, we talk about that with Ohio State. Eight they sent to a record number of NFL draft picks away from Columbus, I think fourteen of them. But so they have questions too. But then yeah, Texas, same deal. So I'm gonna lean with Ohio State. And here's why I like their offensive line against Texas's d line and the deal with Ohio State. It was such a long season along playoff run. They had a lot of injuries on their offensive line, which you know, hurt at the moment, but now you've got a lot of younger guys ahead of schedule with reps and starts and experience.
00:46:27
Speaker 2: So actually their offensive line is pretty proven. I like what they have there.
00:46:30
Speaker 3: They're going up against a Texas front that loses several starters and had the backfill from the portal a lot. I think three out of four starters are portal guys. A lot of the two deep is now from the portal.
00:46:40
Speaker 2: And that can hit.
00:46:41
Speaker 3: That could be great. But in week one, I think you're going to catch them. So arch Manning's first big start on the road a hostel.
00:46:47
Speaker 2: You know it's gonna be at noon.
00:46:48
Speaker 3: I was going to say primetime it it should be play unbelievable Number one versus number three is going to be at noon.
00:46:54
Speaker 2: But that's our era now with big, big TV money. But no, I like Ohio State here.
00:46:59
Speaker 3: I think they're, if it's possible to say, the more proven products still despite losing fourteen drafted.
00:47:04
Speaker 4: Wow, okay, we got another one dan another guys. Yeah State yeuh okay.
00:47:08
Speaker 1: So you talk about Texas and Ohio State both you know, filling holes with transfers and working out for both of these teams obviously swimming league for Ohio State last year, you have new coaches. You have recent new coaches not plugging holes but building entire rosters, bringing in fifteen basketball teams worth of guys. Right that there's forty seven new guys, fifty three new guys, sixty one new guys. On one level, how do you evaluate how that team is going to be? Are you putting just everything on coaching history and schedule, not knowing how anybody's going to gel and how anybody fits into whatever system? Or do you just throw your hands up and say, like, we'll talk about it October eleventh.
00:47:54
Speaker 2: A little bit of both.
00:47:55
Speaker 3: I'd say, I mean two examples that come to mind. You got Purdue going through a massive roster and over coaching change after their terrible season last year, the worst team in the country per my numbers last year.
00:48:06
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at it.
00:48:07
Speaker 3: The transfer portal was what twenty produced starters out of there going to different schools.
00:48:11
Speaker 2: So total rebuild.
00:48:13
Speaker 3: I think in these situations what you try and do is you got to go position by position, got to dig in. There's no easy way out of this discussion. So I looked at every transfer coming in where'd they come from? Where they all conference guys at the lower tier where they former blue chip recruits. Just go room by room and then also look at the coaching and their history. So with Purdue with Barry otom he's actually gone through a similar scenario At UNLV two years ago. He took over UNLV, they were terrible. He went through a massive roster overhaul and got them to the Mountain West title game twice in a row. So a guy that's done it before, albeit at the Mountain West and not the Big Ten. But you want somebody that's gone through such a transition. So maybe tough in twenty twenty five, but could be the right guy.
00:48:54
Speaker 2: Going forward, intermediate, long term.
00:48:56
Speaker 3: The other one, and I'm actually proud of us that we went forty minutes without talking about it. The UNC hire of Bill Bilichick and one of the storylines of twenty twenty five. I heard they're gonna be bringing the entire ESPN campus down a Chapel Hill. They're gonna just set up shot there for the next three months. But no, I think a similar deal. They're bringing in like sixty five new players, And again I had to just dig in position by position and I think they're They're proven at some spots, you know, and in their secondary they have several guys that were former starters at you know, the power for or.
00:49:27
Speaker 2: The Group of five level.
00:49:29
Speaker 3: At quarterback, they're trying to get their quarterback injury back from injury with Johnson, but they signed Gio Lopez, an All Sun Belt guy, a true freshman player from South Alabama, dual threat kid. So long story short, I mean it's a little bit uncertain with the UNC you gotta trust their coaching and in the ACC you're gonna have a lot of one score games, and who better to trust than a Bilichick off or Bilichick team. You feel like the the keys of the game, they're going to be good at, you know, the situational staff, procedure, penalties, like they're going to be clean. I think so that might flip a cup of one score games their way. But it's a total crapshit with some of these rosters.
00:50:05
Speaker 1: Fair enough, one of the more fascinating teams. And I am a biased Oregon human here, but the Oregon Ducks win the Big Ten. They go thirteen and oh last season they're in the regular season. We've talked about the SEC champ in Georgia. We've talked about the Big twelve champ in Arizona State. Oregon seems to be on like three clear paths and we kind of have to decide how we feel about each one. One is that we're maybe under selling how good they were last year and how many quality pieces are back, and they're perhaps not getting the attention that Ohio State and Penn State are. Having beaten both of those teams during the regular season last year, we don't need to talk about the Rose Bowl. That's a conversation that nobody wants to have, nobody needs to reflect on. Two is that they're properly seen as a competitive team near the top, but had to replace an offensive line, a quarterback, key pieces in the secondary and defensive line, and that's a lot or three that they're due for a down year and there's a reckoning coming because there are too many questions and so you obviously have them pretty high in your Big ten tier. Where do you think, with the benefit of now a little bit more time and you know, hearing stories about camp, like, where do you stand same place? How do you feel about those three paths?
00:51:22
Speaker 3: I might have to give you a fourth I was on the radio up in Portland and they were asking me about Oregon, and I told them, Hey, Oregon's might pick to win the national championship. And I paused way too long, and I go in twenty twenty six, I think that, and I put that in the book too as my preview for next year. But I think they're building an absolute machine in Eugene. I mean, it's unbelievable, undeniable, the amount of talent that they're stockpiling. Dan Lanning has really elevated this recruiting thing to a new level. I look at it this way. You know, twenty four to seven sports and on three. It's a lot of quantity for their recruiting rankings. But if you look at it at per player, if you just do the sheer average, Organ was number one in the country the high school ranks last year, and the number one in the country from the transfer portal last year per player. So it's undeniable what's going on up there.
00:52:07
Speaker 2: But here's the thing.
00:52:08
Speaker 3: They're very young, so it's all about what playoff structure we're in. I think last year leaves a confusing legacy. You know, thirteen to zero, number one, the clear only undefeated team in one hundred and thirty years of college football. That team's either playing in a Rose Bowl for a national title, or they're in the BCS title game, and that could have been their first title in school history. Instead, they're thrown back into this big bracket and they run into a machine a rematch Ohio State spot.
00:52:31
Speaker 2: So I say that not.
00:52:32
Speaker 3: To bring up bad memories for you, but fine, I say that because now it flips to an advantage for Oregon, because in the old structure, I don't.
00:52:39
Speaker 2: See this team going undefeated.
00:52:40
Speaker 3: I don't see twenty twenty five Oregon going twelve to zero and making a one versus two BCS title game. I do see maybe a ten to two, a very younger team that is growing up. They probably lose that white out spot, maybe drop another one as a young team. But by the time December rolls around, in January rolls around, now they're not a young team anymore. They're now a veteran team stockpiled with five star recruits that could be rounding into form in a big bracket. So it's a confusing legacy they lead behind and enter twenty twenty five with. But I think they're one of the most talented in the country. It's one of the youngest, so I think come late twenty twenty five, but definitely twenty six.
00:53:15
Speaker 2: They're a national title contender. There you go, Dan, got to wait a year.
00:53:20
Speaker 1: I think that's what you thought you were gonna have to wait a year for Notre Dame, right, Notre Dame was everything was pointing to twenty twenty five, and they do it a year early. They get to that game.
00:53:28
Speaker 4: Well, okay, so let me ask about that before we wrap up here. Clearly I have a rooting interest in Notre Dame. By all accounts, the quarterback battle is neck and neck, much to my surprise, much as the surprise of Benny. It seems like this is a legitimate neck and neck race.
00:53:43
Speaker 2: Here.
00:53:43
Speaker 4: Does that alter your thinking at all, Brett? Depending on who gets the job, different skill sets.
00:53:49
Speaker 1: CJ.
00:53:49
Speaker 4: Carr much more of you know, the drop back passer, good mobility, but he's not necessarily going to be a runner. Kenny Minshee. I think they basically called the same offense regardless of who's the quarterback. But Kenny Minsche is definitely more mobile. You can put them on the run, you can do a little bit more with him. Does that alter your thinking, maybe just with respect to Week one, how you view Notre Dame depending on who they end up picking at quarterback.
00:54:13
Speaker 3: In fact, I could even spin it as a positive. You know, it all depends on who we're talking about, because you have a five star with CJ. Carr and another top one hundred recruit and Kenny Minshee. These are blue chippers. They were, you know, heavily recruited by everybody. So if they're competing neck and neck, I think you have two really good quarterbacks. If one of the people in the situation was a walk on or a two star or like a former Mac player or something, and their neck and neck with CJ. Car then that might be calls for concern. But I think you have two legit quarterbacks. Like you said, maybe different styles. Maybe you can use Minshi's legs in certain situations. If anything, you can can confuse your Week one opponent with who you're gonna play. They've got to prep for both guys, So I'm viewing that.
00:54:51
Speaker 2: As a positive.
00:54:52
Speaker 3: And yeah, speaking of your two teams, I wonder if we're going to see I call it the solid verb Bowl Oregon versus Notre Dame in the back of a game.
00:54:59
Speaker 2: There, We're ready, We're ready, were waiting for it. Yeah, it hasn't happened yet.
00:55:03
Speaker 3: You had to deal with an awkward one with Notre Dame Penn State, being a Pennsylvanian, probably surrounded by staters that had to be tough last year.
00:55:10
Speaker 4: Well, and as an alum, you know, it was like it was yeah, I mean it was. We did a stream for it, and in hindsight I said to Dan, I'm like, I shouldn't We shouldn't have done that stream. It really left me in a very conflicted state because, yeah, these are the two teams that are rooted for, and you know, one I've cheered for a little bit longer, the other I graduated from the school.
00:55:30
Speaker 1: Let's be clear. As soon as that game kicked off, he was like, Notre Dame, baby, let's do this. He was not conflicted when between the sidelines. He was all irish all the time. So it wasn't like, oh, that was a good play, but now I feel no, no, Immediately.
00:55:46
Speaker 4: It took like three minutes. It took three minutes for like the primal instincts to kick in and then yeah, it was a lot of rooting for I.
00:55:53
Speaker 1: Feel like on that opening kickoff somebody was a good tackle from Notre Dame or something. Maybe I'm making that up. And he was like, yeah, baby, here we go.
00:56:00
Speaker 3: Well, hey, the college football fan that runs deep, you can't just turn that off, you know you can't.
00:56:05
Speaker 2: You can't.
00:56:06
Speaker 4: Man, All right, Look his name's Brett Siancia. You can find him out at Pick six Previews. Tell the find people where to go, what they can find when they get there, and what you've got going on this season.
00:56:17
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, thanks so much for having me second annual previews show.
00:56:20
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it. They can't wait to see what you guys do this fall.
00:56:23
Speaker 3: And yeah it's Pick Sixpreviews dot Com, Pick six Previews on Twitter, the annual season preview magazine. We have the digital version and the hard copy magazine. It's spiral bound. People are loving the spiral binding. I mean, it's such a simp I got it right here. Look, Brett, send it to me.
00:56:37
Speaker 4: I forgot to thank you via text message, so thank you for sending this up to me. But yes, it's a nice little lot quick reference. Guyd you do a great job with it.
00:56:45
Speaker 1: It's great.
00:56:45
Speaker 3: Well, thank you so much. Yeah, it's on there, we got sample teams. You can take ties testimonial right there, that's all I need. And then on there, yeah, you'll see samples. If you buy the hard copy, you get the digital as well. Just for those three days that it's in USPS shipping, you have access right away. And then also take a look at Pick six plus. It's our in season feature. All the advanced stats you like, all the against the spread, the situational splits.
00:57:08
Speaker 2: You know, how's a team as a favorite? How are they off a buy?
00:57:10
Speaker 3: All that kind of stuff, updated every Tuesday in your email inbox Pick six plus.
00:57:15
Speaker 2: Go check that out.
00:57:16
Speaker 3: So thanks so much for having me, guys, I mean, always a great convo. My favorite spot of the year for preseason talks.
00:57:21
Speaker 4: Thank you well, we appreciate it. We will do it again sometime very soon. Again, check out Brett's work at Pick sixpreviews dot com. All right again, check them out. Brett Siancia Pick six Previews. I got it here in front of me, right, where am I do it? Here we go, I got.
00:57:37
Speaker 1: It out in front of me, beautiful.
00:57:39
Speaker 2: I showed it when Brett was on the screen. I'll show it again now.
00:57:42
Speaker 4: I've been using this as my quick reference guide as I go through these teams. It's a perfect compliment to much of the other work that has gone in on this end to try and figure out who is who in this coming year of college football.
00:57:55
Speaker 1: So we appreciate Brett's time. He says, no acronyms, but it's bft tie. It's built toilets.
00:58:01
Speaker 2: It's so great and we mean that not as a pejorative, by the way.
00:58:04
Speaker 1: One hundred percent compliment that you can sit down with it when you're already sitting doing something else, taking care of your business, and just bang out the Houston preview, right, just like figure out how you feel about West Virginia or Ohio State or Washington Like it's great, great toilet fodder, perfect compliment from me.
00:58:26
Speaker 4: Love it all right, Well, big thanks again to Brett. Please go and check out his work. It does an awesome job. On our next episode, we're going to be doing our official prediction.
00:58:37
Speaker 1: Stan for the season Big picture. Big Picture.
00:58:41
Speaker 4: So if you go back and listen to the conference previews, we obviously gave some voice to who we think is winning each of these conferences, but we did not do a playoff prediction. You need to do that we'll talk about our brackets. I think if it's cool with you, we should bundle in some fantasy things as well.
00:59:00
Speaker 1: One percent like it could be kind of a long show, and so we'll do spill over fantasy things for the fine people at Verballers dot com. That's v er there. It is b a l l ers dot com to support the show directly if you enjoy what we do. So yeah, fantasy things and official predictions next week.
00:59:19
Speaker 4: And we got a uh smattering of suggestions of predictions from the verballerhood that you're gonna be able to hear. This will drop on Sunday, so a lot to come. We're excited about it. The season, as I like to say, is getting awfully big in the window. Keep it right here, hit follow or subscribes that you don't miss any of those episodes. Correct for that guy over there, my good friend Dan Rubinstein, for myself, Tie Hildebrand, thank you as always for stopping on by.
00:59:48
Speaker 2: Hope to see you again soon. We'll talk to you on Sunday.
00:59:52
Speaker 1: Stay solved, peace,