545. Burnham Beats Reform: Britain’s Next Prime Minister?

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Labour have won the crucial by-election in Makerfield and they
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have won it big. Nearly 25,000 votes for Andy Burnham,
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55% of all ballots cast. These are normally words that
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would delight the leader of the Labour Party and Prime
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Minister Keir Starmer, but it was in effect Andy Burnham's
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application to the Labour Party to oust Keir Starmer and
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put him into Downing Street instead. So does this thumping victory,
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won in an area where reform battered Labour in the
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local elections in May, spell the end of the Starmer premiership?
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How has it come to this and what happens next?
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What does the big win for the Tories in Aberdeen
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South against the SNP mean for the UK and Scottish
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governments' policies on energy? It was quite a night in
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Welcome to The Rest Is Politics with me, Rory Stewart.
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And me, Alistair Campbell. So Rory, Andy Burnham has won
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and he has won big.
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Amazing. So just to put it in context, this is
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the by-election in Makerfield. And this was prime reform territory.
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So two thirds of voters in this constituency had voted
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for Brexit. And in the local elections very recently, just
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a few weeks ago, Labour were 20 points behind reform.
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So reform could have won the seat comfortably. But Andy
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Burnham has won this with a 20-point lead. He's increased
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his party vote share by 10. And this is something
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right against the national trend. So, as you, I'm sure,
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are going to get on to, Aberdeen South, as you mentioned,
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has now, Labour went down 19 points, and it went
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down 18 points in Arbraith, but it went 10 points
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up in this constituency with Andy Burnham.
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And he.
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basically wiped out the Greens, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
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The Greens, Lib Dems got about 1%, Conservatives got about
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2% and even Restore and Reform together wouldn't have been
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enough to beat him. So it's looking very, very strong.
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There are some caveats around the corner, but pretty strong.
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Back over to you.
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Yeah, I think a lot of the, when you talk
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about the two Scottish by-elections, which were caused by former
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Westminster MPs winning seats in the Holyrood Parliament in the
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recent Scottish elections. I think a lot of tactical voting
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going on there and a lot of tactical voting to
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stop reform in Makerfield. But listen, I was talking to
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people in the campaign last night and even late on,
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they were very confident Andy Burnham was going to win,
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but they were worried that a win might be tainted
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if Restore Votes, the far, far right party, ate into reform,
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the just right, very right wing populist party, and that
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became a deciding factor. But it wasn't needed because, as
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you say, 55% of the vote meant they didn't get near.
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Checking a few historical footnotes, Rory, you've got to go
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back to the time when I was one year old. Torrington, 1958.
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Mark Bonham Carter, one for the Liberals, for a bigger
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differential turnout from a general election to a by-election.
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What does a differential turnout mean? Sorry.
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The increase in the vote in a by-election... as opposed
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to the parliamentary election. It's normally lower in a by-election.
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This is considerably higher. So he's driven out people who
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didn't vote last time round. And then to go back
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for a rise in the actual numbers for a by-election
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candidate standing for the party of government going up on
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this scale, you've got to go back to Labour, Kevin McNamara, Hull, 1966.
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A year more remembered for... football rather than politics.
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The two things you're saying there is that apart from
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the actual results, the two norms in a by-election are usually,
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or sometimes fewer people turn out than turn out for
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a general election. And usually in by-elections, there's a tendency
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to vote against the party of government. It's often a
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protest vote. So if you were just running it normally,
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you would have looked at three things. You would have said, well,
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it's a by-election, probably go a bit anti-government, probably lower turnout.
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And then you would have looked at the local elections
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in May and you would have said Labour was trailing
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20 points behind reform. And remember, of course, in the
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background is this by-election Gorton and Dent, which they didn't
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let Andy Burnham run in and which Labour lost. And,
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you know, there were a lot of people at the
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time saying, oh, there's nothing to say that if he
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had run, if the NEC had allowed him to run,
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he really would have won. I think the evidence... I
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would suggest, points to the idea that he probably would
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have won big there too. Back over to you.
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Yeah, so I think the exam question that is keeping
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quite a lot of Labour people awake at night is
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who can stop reform. And the stat of all the
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different stats we can look at that they'll be looking
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at most closely is this one, 23% swing from reform
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to Labour since May in the seats that reform took
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from Labour in those local elections. And as you say,
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Andy Burnham more than doubling Labour's share of the vote.
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And this seat, by the way, I'm indebted to Peter
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Kellner for this, I'd forgotten this, but this seat had
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the sixth highest reform vote in the last general election.
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So I guess what MPs are seeing and thinking about
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this morning is this, that there is a way to
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stop reform. I've always felt that there is too, but
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they're thinking Andy Burnham may be essential to that way.
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So the pressure on Keir Starmer is huge. There's no
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doubt about that. Numbers matter in politics. Polls come and go,
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but these are real numbers. And the truth is, Andy
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Burnham has done better than expected. So then we ask,
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what happens now? And the truth is, nobody knows. I've
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talked to a lot of people. I've talked to a
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lot of the key people. As late as Wednesday, Keir
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Starmer was gathering in MPs and telling them, whatever the result,
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if there is a challenge, I'm going to fight it.
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His one public response so far is a social media post.
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We're recording this in the morning after the by-election. It's
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a social media post saying voters chose Labour's campaign of
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hope and optimism over division and hate. But of course,
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if you've been to Makefield, you might see that at
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all the billboards, at all the posters around there, it
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doesn't say Labour, it says Andy. So all depends now
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what these key figures decide to do. I don't believe
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Andy Burnham wants to make that challenge. But he will
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make clear, if they do have a conversation, that he's
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got the numbers if that is needed. And the truth is,
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you know this in politics, MPs can be very herd-like.
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Those numbers are likely to be growing. I very much
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doubt we'll see him much over the media, other than
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maybe going for a run or having a pint or
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whatever he might do, because he'll be waiting to see
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what unfolds the same as everybody else. So key to
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this Keir Starmer's reaction is, Key also, West Streeting's reaction.
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But I think to some extent, I suspect this takes
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West Streeting pretty much out of the game. And if
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I had to put my life on it, I think
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Andy Burnham could be there by conference.
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Okay. And conference is October, right?
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It's late September. Last week of September, yeah.
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So really big news. I mean, that's a new prime
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minister for the UK.
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Okay.
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Something that again will puzzle the world because Keir Starmer
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won a really big majority, looked like he could sit
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there for five years and Britain's going through prime ministers
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at a kind of Belgian-Italian rate at the moment. But
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I think the logic of this, and obviously MPs can
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behave in very illogical ways and Labour MPs can behave
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in illogical ways like anyone else. But if I keep
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coming back to two drums that I've been banging, the
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first is Keir Starmer cannot win the next election. the guy,
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for his many merits, there are many things that are,
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you know, likable about Keir Starmer. He's just no good
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as a prime minister. He's not a winning phenomenon. His
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net popularity is terrible. He can't make a speech. He
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doesn't have any clear definition. I can't find anyone in
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any meeting I go to who can tell me what
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his economic policy is, what his growth policy is, what
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it stands for. So my analogy has always been, look,
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with Keir Starmer, it's a losing proposition. The ship's heading
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into the iceberg. Now, getting off and getting on the
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lifeboats may not work. Andy Burnham may not work, but
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there's no serious alternatives of staying with Starman. The second
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thing I think we've been saying is that if Burnham
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wins well, and he's won really well here, it's answered
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the number one big question in politics, which is, can
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you take on reform? And what I love about it,
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to sound like a bit of an Andy Burnham fanboy
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for a moment, is that he's not done it in
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the way that some of the people advising the Conservative
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Party would have said is the only way of beating reform.
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He's done it with a pretty decent, straightforward campaign. He
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hasn't done any crazy. I mean, there's a of temptations.
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If you're taking on reform in a constituency, I imagine
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the pressure on you to think, well, I can sound
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a little bit more right-wing and radical. I can steal
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a little bit of reform's language here. I can surprise
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people because I can count on my Labour vote and
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I can bring over reform. He hasn't done that. It
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was a pretty sunny I mean, sorry, on the ground,
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it felt very nasty. But the way Burnham's conducted himself
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has been pragmatic, progressive, laid back, and he's won big.
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And I think that's the recipe for British politics. I
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think what Starmer got wrong was that he lost that
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sense of being a happy warrior. He lost the sense
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of being able to communicate well, having a sense of hope,
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and that actually Morgan McSweeney was the kind of worst
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of all worlds if what he was doing is saying
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the way to beat reform is is to on certain
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issues sound like a kind of mini reform without being
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able to sound the more optimistic notes back over to you.
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Yeah. I mean, I guess, look, Keir Starmer will have
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a lot of deep thinking to do in the next
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few days and will doubtless be talking to all sorts
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of people. And he'll probably be feeling very, very angry.
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And he can get very angry, Keir. And the thing
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is that, you know, he's probably thinking, I led the
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Labour Party to a landslide victory when they told us
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that we were finished. And they said that we could
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never do it. And I did it. The economy actually
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was beginning to pick up a bit until Donald Trump
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did his stupid bloody war in Iran. Reform have made
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their numbers rise on the back of small boats and immigration.
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And actually, we've done some pretty tough things. And we
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get the numbers going the right way. The National Health
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Service numbers are going the right way. There's lots that
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he can point to. The trouble is, as you say,
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when you're out and about, and I'm the same as you,
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I'm always talking to people about what they think. And
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even people who have often benefited from Labour government policy
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changes aren't even necessarily aware that they've happened. And that
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is a sort of political communications issue. The other reason
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he'll be feeling angry, but this works both ways. And
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I think, you know, because obviously a lot depends now
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on how these two deal with each other. The fact
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is there is next to no trust between them. And
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that is a problem. And that's a political failure. I
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remember quite a long time ago being up in Manchester.
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I mean, it was after Keir Starmer became leader, but
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before he became prime minister. I remember seeing Andy Burnham
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and him saying, oh, God, the way these guys operate,
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unless you're 100% echo everything they say, you get stuff
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through the press, blah, blah, blah. Talk to Keir Starmer's
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people and they'll say, bloody Andy Burnham, he's impossible to
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deal with. Anything you do, he trims a little bit
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this way, trims a little bit that way. But the
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truth is that trust has broken down. Now, I think
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it is possible, you know, we talked about this and
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I think I got it wrong about the Gorton and
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Denton thing when I actually thought I could see why
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Keir Starmer was getting the national executive to block Andy
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Burner from standing. I think it's possible that back then
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he might have been able to say, Andy, you show
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you can win, win, come in and I give you
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a big job in the cabinet and then let's see
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how things go. I'm afraid I think the process around
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then is the reason why Keir Starmer apparently now having
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said to Andy Burnham, why do you come into the
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cabinet if you get back into parliament? Andy Burnham is
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making clear no. And in his acceptance speech, he had
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this line, you know, we'll get no second chance. Now,
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that's a deliberate way to accept you can't change your
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prime minister every five minutes like the Tories did. But
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he's basically saying, I am your second chance. So this
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really is hard, brutal politics now. He's going to arrive
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in Parliament on Monday. He's going to take his seat.
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Does Keir Starmer sit in Parliament for that? Does he
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kind of, you know, smile happily? And of course, he's
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not bound to set a timetable for his departure, but
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that is basically what Andy Burnham and those who are
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supporting were going to be asking for.
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Two things that I was thinking when you were talking.
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As you say, he blew it by refusing to let
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him run in Gorton and Denton. I mean, again, it's
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a classic sign of the sort of McSweeney mindset going wrong.
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I suppose the cliche there is kind of mafia cliche.
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If you're going to strike at the king, right, you
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must kill him. So if you've tried to exclude and
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destroy Andy Burnham and stop him coming in once and
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you failed, you can't then hope to control him when
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he comes in the second time. I think the other
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thing is that all those stories about anger sound absolutely
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identical to Joe Biden. I mean, almost phrase by phrase
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what she said there, you know, number one, you know,
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I was the guy that beat Donald Trump and I'm
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not going to get credit for the fact that I
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brought the Democrats in. Number two, the only reason this
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thing is going wrong is because of these MAGA guys.
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Number three, You know, they're getting support because of immigration,
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but I'm doing stuff on immigration. You know, I'm almost
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identical to Republicans on immigration. All that is understandable. But
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the reason it sounds like Joe Biden, it's the anger
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of somebody who is trying to cling on when the
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party and the country knows they can't win the next
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election and they need to be got rid of. And
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their anger is that people aren't being grateful towards them.
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But that's not legitimate in a football manager or a
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CEO or a prime minister. You're not there for the gratitude.
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You're there to win. And you can't win. And like Biden,
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the longer this dude clings on, the worse. Because once
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you've lost it, there's no point being a sort of
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lame duck prime minister or president.
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How do you feel looking in on it with the
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notion that they could replace Keir Starmer as a Labour
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leader and therefore as Prime Minister without any contest at all?
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I believe in contests. I mean, I think that's one
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of the things that went wrong with Kamala Harris. She
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never got a chance to really show whether she could
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beat it. The country never really felt there was any contest.
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I think Theresa May coming in with a coronation was awkward.
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If you remember with that run after Boris Johnson fell out,
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Andrea Leadsom fell out and she basically just came through.
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I'm less worried than you are by this idea of
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people knocking bits off each other. I think it can
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be quite healthy. That's my counter example. So when I
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was running against in that leadership in 2019, of course,
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everybody in the Conservative Party was saying, could you leadership
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candidates stop attacking each other? This is very bad for
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our brand. Everybody hates us attacking each other. But the
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reality is that Boris Johnson came out of a pretty
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brutal campaign where we were all knocking bits off each
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other and won big. And I think people sort of
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understand that that can happen.
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So let me jump in there then. So if you
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were if you were sitting in a room with Keir
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Starmer now and you were his best friend, would you
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be saying to him he should stand in that contest,
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even if he thinks he might lose? And if you
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were West Streeting's best friend? Would you be saying to him, look,
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Andy cannot come in and just have a coronation. At
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least somebody like you has to stand and offer a
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different vision for the Labour Party. Would you advise him
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to do it?
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I think the latter probably makes more sense because if
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the story is that Keir Starmer can't make it, making
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him go through a painful campaign, pretending to run when
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nobody believes he should be prime minister doesn't make sense.
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I think the West Streeting story is a good one
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because presumably that's what your friend Tony Blair would like
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to see. I mean, I guess that's what his letter
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was about. There is another story that Labour needs to
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get its head around, and I think Andy Byrne needs
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to answer, which is, is there a radically different economic
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policy that a centre-left party could pursue? Could they have
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a different energy policy? Could they have a different tax policy?
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Could they have a different innovation policy? What calls is
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he going to make on tech, non-doms, energy, foreign policy,
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all this sort of stuff that Blair thing was trying
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to stir up. So I don't like the idea that somebody,
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and I also think that there's nothing for Burnham to
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be afraid of. He's on a winning streak. I'd take
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the risk if I was him because it looks sort
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of slightly pathetic to just be crowned. And I'd certainly,
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if I was Burnham, be saying, bring it on. I'd
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love to have the debate. I don't want to be crowned.
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I'd like people to run against me.
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I don't think that's where he is. I think he
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thinks that the I think his view is probably that
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in a way this contest that he's just won and
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the scale of the win is more significant for the
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country than a debate, internal debate that could tear the
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party apart and get people to say crazy things because
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they're appealing to a different sort of electorate. So it's
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a kind of risk. It is a risk both ways.
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And also what's interesting, when you were going through all
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the sort of policy on this, policy on that, will
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he change this, will he change that? I know a
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couple of times the Conservatives got away with resisting the
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pressure of saying, look, if you change your prime minister,
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you have to have a general election. We shouldn't underestimate
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the pressure that there will be. And with a media
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that is going to be– if Andy Burnham does replace
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Keir Starmer, the massive hostility of most of the right-wing
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media to Keir Starmer translates automatically. The sort of Russian propaganda,
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et cetera, operations that have been running and of which
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we've learned more in recent times, they're going to transfer.
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So he's got to have in him. He's obviously got confidence.
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I agree with you about the nature of his campaign.
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I'd have been very tempted running that campaign to have
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taken all sorts of lumps off reform, really tried to
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have made Farage and crypto and all that stuff, really
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tried to get in there. And he resisted all that.
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um but i think in getting democratic legitimacy on the
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back of one by-election of 60 000 voters whatever it
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is is i think it's a stretch so but you
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know if i again if i had to put my
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life on it we're living in such unpredictable volatile times
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but My money at the moment probably would be if
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he is going to be prime minister in the next
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few months on a coronation. My son Rory's just sent
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me a thing. Betfair has him 94% to be the
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next prime minister. That means, Rory, that you don't want to...
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Don't do a... Kamala Harris-style bet on that one, please.
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Just don't do it. You mentioned there the other thing
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that I think is really significant out of this violation,
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and which won't, I don't think, get maybe the debate
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that it should. I've been saying to you for some
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time that I think we are through peak reform. And
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I know that's counterintuitive because they keep coming top in
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the polls. But I think reform have a ceiling. And
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I think some of this stuff, I think the money
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stuff has damaged Farage. I think the Russia stuff does
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damage Farage. I actually think that the Jenrick, Braverman, Zahawi,
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these Tory retreads coming over and suddenly being the big
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figures in reform. And as if we're so stupid to
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hear John Jenrick talk about immigration when he was the
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immigration minister responsible for some of the disasters that he
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now says are disasters. And an interesting thing, we have
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James Cleverley on leading this week. I noticed him, he
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last night posted a couple of council by-elections in Essex,
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which Reform won in the local elections. They've had by-elections,
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presumably because the candidates have thought, oh, I didn't expect
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to win, I don't want to do it. And they've
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now lost and they've gone back to the Conservatives. So
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I think this is really bad for reform. Farage will
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do his usual thing. I bet he goes to ground
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for a bit. He'll hope all the focus is on
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Andy Burnham rather than him. So let's take a break.
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And then we come back. We'll talk about this election
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in Aberdeen South. Very, very interesting. Tories beating the SNP.
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And also we'll maybe focus on some of the challenges
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that Andy Burnham would face if he does replace Keir Starmer.
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Absolutely. Looking forward to talking about it after the break.
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We are getting a statement from number 10 on that
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flight with 350 passengers on board.
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The Great Gain. Strategic struggle between Britain and Russia. We
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assess Prime Minister with high confidence it was... Russian.
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Holding the Russians accountable is World War III.
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They took down a British passenger jet containing 350 people.
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The man in the Kremlin is playing, Alex. You've got
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to ask yourself, do you want to play or not?
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You're the Prime Minister.
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You've done nothing! We would need to understand the policy context.
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All the relevant context will be structured as a framework
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today and disseminated into an Operation Order, or FRAGO. A
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frago that says to kill the president of Russia. Yes.
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00:23:03.210 --> 00:23:04.329
New from Goldhanger.
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00:23:04.630 --> 00:23:06.529
Who is going to be able to pull this off?
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00:23:06.970 --> 00:23:09.730
You're my soldier, are you?
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00:23:09.750 --> 00:23:13.690
Sergeant Tom McDuff, Duffy. An audio drama journey like no other.
429
00:23:13.710 --> 00:23:16.349
Men like Duffy, they are our most valuable weapon.
430
00:23:17.609 --> 00:23:22.970
Devised as a technically rigorous geopolitical action thriller where Britain
431
00:23:23.069 --> 00:23:30.619
plays its strongest hand against its strongest foe. Bear Hunt.
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00:23:31.980 --> 00:23:49.000
Available now wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome back to
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The Rest of Politics with me, Rory Stewart.
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And me, Alistair Campbell. And we're talking on this Friday
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morning after three by-elections, two in Scotland, one in the
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northwest of England, which may, may be a step on
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the road to a change of occupant of Downing Street.
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But Rory, Scotland was interesting too. Yeah.
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So one story that you could have got looking at
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the election we just saw in Makerfield is that the
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Tories were wiped out. They got barely 2% of the vote.
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They lost their deposit. I mean, the Greens and the
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Dems too.
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I'd love to know how many of them voted for,
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how many people who voted for those three parties in
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the general election voted for Andy Burnham. I bet some did.
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There was a loss of Tories going over to Andy Burnham,
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which of course, for somebody like me, who actually believes
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there's a huge constituency for quite gentle, progressive, thoughtful politics
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in the centre ground, Andy Burnham's hugely cheering. And I
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think the Tories should be really worried. I think this
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is where Burnham may prove that he can attract in
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a way that Starmer couldn't, a loss of the centre-right
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voters over, if the Tories continue to try to chase
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the reform on the right. So you might have looked
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at that election, and you could actually say, this is
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the death knell for the Conservatives. This is the moment
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at which they become like François Hollande's Socialist Party in France,
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or this is the moment where the Canadian Conservatives are
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wiped out because it's so bad. And then, as you say,
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up in Aberdeen South, astonishingly, the Conservatives just won a seat.
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against the SNP turning around the general election results. And
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Kemi Badenoch's net popularity rating is going up. And again,
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there's going to be a huge debate within the Conservative Party.
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Some people will say it doesn't matter what her net
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popularity rating is. Look what happened in Makerfield. She got
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no votes. And of course, many people say it doesn't
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really matter for Scottish Conservatives. Other people will try to
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spin it as a positive result. But it's partly about
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energy too. I noticed, and I'm going to push back
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to you on this because we keep having this conversation,
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but our mutual hero, Janus Garstora, the wonderful Norwegian leader,
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has just come out saying he wants to drill in
474
00:25:58.069 --> 00:26:01.430
the Arctic. And he's quite rightly said, listen, this is
475
00:26:01.490 --> 00:26:05.410
completely crazy. We're talking about energy security. We can't rely
476
00:26:05.470 --> 00:26:08.529
on Russian gas. We've realized because of straightforward moves, we
477
00:26:08.569 --> 00:26:11.559
can't rely necessarily on Middle Eastern gas. We don't want
478
00:26:11.579 --> 00:26:15.779
to be completely in hock to Donald Trump's gas. And
479
00:26:15.819 --> 00:26:19.720
we need gas, desperately need gas, because in most countries,
480
00:26:19.779 --> 00:26:22.119
unless you're lucky enough to have huge amounts of hydro,
481
00:26:22.740 --> 00:26:25.839
you need gas to back up your renewables. So we
482
00:26:25.880 --> 00:26:29.000
need to drill for sovereign reasons, not price reasons. This
483
00:26:29.059 --> 00:26:32.950
is what's so irritating about this discussion with Ed Miliband.
484
00:26:33.109 --> 00:26:36.769
It's not about the gas price. It's about sovereignty. It's
485
00:26:36.829 --> 00:26:41.170
about having your own supply. And I think that's basically
486
00:26:41.210 --> 00:26:43.750
the argument that's been run in Aberdeen South successfully by
487
00:26:43.789 --> 00:26:47.539
the Conservatives against the SNP, with Labour collapsing.
488
00:26:47.799 --> 00:26:51.099
Yeah, and again, probably, I think tactical voting there as well.
489
00:26:51.140 --> 00:26:55.059
The Labour vote did collapse, but I suspect a lot of... Look, Labour...
490
00:26:55.920 --> 00:26:58.380
In Scotland, Labour always want to kick the SNP as
491
00:26:58.400 --> 00:27:00.369
hard as they can. So I suspect there will have
492
00:27:00.390 --> 00:27:02.369
been tactical voting there as well. I think the tactical
493
00:27:02.410 --> 00:27:03.869
voting issue.
494
00:27:04.599 --> 00:27:04.759
is.
495
00:27:04.779 --> 00:27:06.920
Probably going to be, and this is maybe a consequence
496
00:27:06.960 --> 00:27:09.730
of this five, six party politics that we're now in,
497
00:27:10.430 --> 00:27:15.410
that people are motivated often as much as, if not more,
498
00:27:15.509 --> 00:27:17.150
by who do I not want to win as who
499
00:27:17.190 --> 00:27:20.349
I want to win. There's no doubt Nigel Farage has
500
00:27:20.390 --> 00:27:23.450
his following, but he has a lot of people who
501
00:27:23.710 --> 00:27:26.799
cannot even begin to stomach the idea that he might
502
00:27:26.859 --> 00:27:29.420
actually become prime minister. And I think that's a very
503
00:27:29.480 --> 00:27:33.609
powerful motivation. to vote Andy Burden, even if you're a Tory.
504
00:27:34.049 --> 00:27:35.230
And then I think there was a bit of that
505
00:27:35.269 --> 00:27:38.869
in Scotland. But listen, there's no doubt. Douglas Lumsden, the
506
00:27:39.029 --> 00:27:41.730
Conservative candidate, and Kemi Badenot went up there a few
507
00:27:41.769 --> 00:27:44.450
times as well. They were fighting on a kind of
508
00:27:44.529 --> 00:27:48.539
oil and gas, you know, we've taken enough damage to
509
00:27:48.559 --> 00:27:52.740
the oil and gas industry campaign. Labour were never going
510
00:27:52.759 --> 00:27:56.339
to win this. This has always been Tory-SMP battleground. But
511
00:27:56.380 --> 00:27:59.740
it will make, I think, both UK and Scottish governments
512
00:28:00.240 --> 00:28:04.420
understand that the politicization of this debate is you know
513
00:28:04.480 --> 00:28:06.460
has the potential to be a problem we should say
514
00:28:06.519 --> 00:28:08.059
by the way to our listeners we're doing something a
515
00:28:08.079 --> 00:28:10.960
bit different on question time next week because rory and
516
00:28:11.019 --> 00:28:13.640
i have been arguing a lot about energy policy recently
517
00:28:14.079 --> 00:28:16.579
we're going to have on for a special question time
518
00:28:16.599 --> 00:28:20.220
a wonderful guy by the name of dan jurgensen he's
519
00:28:20.369 --> 00:28:24.130
danish but he's the european commission energy commissioner he knows
520
00:28:24.150 --> 00:28:26.309
the energy world inside out so we're going to be
521
00:28:26.349 --> 00:28:28.609
looking for your questions over the weekend and then doing
522
00:28:28.650 --> 00:28:31.890
that next week But yeah, no, listen, there's no doubt,
523
00:28:32.319 --> 00:28:35.460
big focus today will be on Andy Burnham and Makerfield.
524
00:28:35.920 --> 00:28:38.619
But I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kemi Badenoch,
525
00:28:38.960 --> 00:28:41.220
if she isn't already, is on a flight to Aberdeen
526
00:28:41.359 --> 00:28:44.880
to try to get the focus on that. And then
527
00:28:44.920 --> 00:28:48.589
the other one in Arbroath was an SNP hold.
528
00:28:49.140 --> 00:28:53.509
Is it the case that actually both reform and the
529
00:28:53.670 --> 00:28:57.869
SNP have basically been damaged by scandal and money? I mean,
530
00:28:58.009 --> 00:29:01.140
part of the story here is that the fallout of
531
00:29:01.240 --> 00:29:06.049
this extraordinary revelations around Peter Morrell, the former CEO of
532
00:29:06.089 --> 00:29:10.269
the S & P and husband of Nicola Sturgeon, about
533
00:29:10.509 --> 00:29:14.109
him stealing party funds and spending it on his own
534
00:29:14.769 --> 00:29:18.910
cars and watches and coffee machines and things, damaged them?
535
00:29:18.970 --> 00:29:20.910
Or is that not the story on Aberdeen South?
536
00:29:21.319 --> 00:29:24.119
Listen, I don't know. I didn't go there, but I
537
00:29:24.220 --> 00:29:27.109
saw one of the SNP leaders being asked that, and
538
00:29:27.369 --> 00:29:29.609
he was very, very dismissive. I think they felt this
539
00:29:29.650 --> 00:29:31.630
was more the SNP. I think there is a bit
540
00:29:31.650 --> 00:29:34.990
of an aftershock to the fact that amid all this scandal,
541
00:29:35.410 --> 00:29:39.599
the SNP won the Scottish elections so comprehensively as you
542
00:29:39.619 --> 00:29:41.920
and I have often said after not being that good
543
00:29:41.960 --> 00:29:45.539
as a government of Scotland and Scotland's public services so
544
00:29:45.640 --> 00:29:47.440
I don't know is the answer but I do think
545
00:29:47.480 --> 00:29:50.599
the kind of chipping away at Farage with a media
546
00:29:50.619 --> 00:29:53.059
that doesn't really focus on these scandals in the way
547
00:29:53.079 --> 00:29:55.440
that it would if it was a Labour politician or
548
00:29:55.480 --> 00:29:58.529
in Scotland an SNP politician I think it is chipping
549
00:29:58.569 --> 00:30:01.299
away I actually think the Russia thing is beginning to
550
00:30:01.720 --> 00:30:08.099
trouble people about Farage and the fact that they didn't
551
00:30:08.140 --> 00:30:11.720
even come out and condemn the Russian involvement in the
552
00:30:11.789 --> 00:30:17.269
attacks on Kyrgyzstan. Kemi Badenok did. What you said earlier,
553
00:30:17.329 --> 00:30:21.869
by the way, about Morgan McSweeney, Labour strategy, Burnham and
554
00:30:22.029 --> 00:30:25.670
Starmer vis-a-vis reform, I wonder if this isn't the moment
555
00:30:25.690 --> 00:30:29.849
where Kemi Badenok also has to understand or face up
556
00:30:29.869 --> 00:30:32.549
to the idea that actually for her to think that
557
00:30:32.589 --> 00:30:35.569
it's all about competing on the Farage, Rupert Lowe space
558
00:30:35.670 --> 00:30:39.130
is not the way to build a bigger base than
559
00:30:39.170 --> 00:30:41.289
she now has. So we'll see on that. Roy, one
560
00:30:41.329 --> 00:30:45.470
other interesting observation, which I think you'd be particularly interested in.
561
00:30:45.890 --> 00:30:48.059
So we're in Paris at the moment because we're about
562
00:30:48.079 --> 00:30:50.130
to go and do an interview with Gabriel Zuckman, the
563
00:30:50.170 --> 00:30:58.140
tax guy. But I was just thinking, Chirac, Sarkozy, Hollande,
564
00:30:59.430 --> 00:31:04.069
all were mayors before going on to be president. Edouard
565
00:31:04.190 --> 00:31:07.930
Philippe is currently a mayor, and he may be the
566
00:31:07.990 --> 00:31:12.190
guy who's the sort of main contender against the Rassemblement National.
567
00:31:12.849 --> 00:31:16.559
And Scheinbaum in Mexico and Renzi in Italy. I just
568
00:31:16.619 --> 00:31:20.099
wonder if there's another important thing here, is that the
569
00:31:20.119 --> 00:31:26.849
elected mayors that we brought in, that that has become
570
00:31:27.289 --> 00:31:32.230
a new independent power base outside of the Westminster world,
571
00:31:32.789 --> 00:31:35.769
that if you're big and bold and ruthless, which clearly
572
00:31:35.849 --> 00:31:39.400
Andy Burnham has showed himself to be, then that's a
573
00:31:39.420 --> 00:31:42.279
different route into the top. I think that's quite interesting.
574
00:31:42.500 --> 00:31:44.819
Absolutely. And of course, the first person to spot this
575
00:31:44.900 --> 00:31:48.240
in British politics was Boris Johnson, because what he discovered
576
00:31:48.299 --> 00:31:51.210
by being mayor is that he could show that he
577
00:31:51.309 --> 00:31:55.319
could and Andy Burnham does this too, you can choose
578
00:31:55.359 --> 00:31:57.269
when to be loyal and when to be disloyal towards
579
00:31:57.289 --> 00:31:59.269
your party. Because in the end, you're putting your own
580
00:31:59.730 --> 00:32:04.750
city first. And that allows you to basically, uniquely in
581
00:32:04.769 --> 00:32:08.250
your party, lay out a completely independent platform. You are
582
00:32:08.309 --> 00:32:12.769
also able to get things done or come across more
583
00:32:12.809 --> 00:32:15.599
as a CEO in a world in which everybody feels
584
00:32:15.650 --> 00:32:19.539
that ministers are totally paralyzed by process and law and
585
00:32:19.579 --> 00:32:22.829
nobody's sure who's in charge. you can be out on
586
00:32:22.869 --> 00:32:28.299
the ground. And I think that when politics is, uh,
587
00:32:28.900 --> 00:32:34.200
driven by lack of trust, your best route is probably
588
00:32:34.240 --> 00:32:37.809
being a mayor because you are actually out on the ground,
589
00:32:38.089 --> 00:32:41.650
endlessly meeting people, interacting with them on the street. They're
590
00:32:41.750 --> 00:32:45.450
seeing you face to face. and you can be non-political.
591
00:32:45.509 --> 00:32:47.769
I think that's the final thing. I mean, the genius
592
00:32:48.289 --> 00:32:51.369
of Boris Johnson and his better incarnation as the mayor
593
00:32:51.410 --> 00:32:54.549
of London before he became this catastrophic prime minister was
594
00:32:54.589 --> 00:32:57.309
that he often was quite non-political and quite liberal and
595
00:32:57.349 --> 00:33:00.970
quite funny. And Andy Burnham is really interesting. He is
596
00:33:01.210 --> 00:33:04.079
all about getting away from the Westminster games. He's been
597
00:33:04.160 --> 00:33:09.849
extremely sort of non-tribal, uh, And I think people really
598
00:33:09.890 --> 00:33:12.390
respond to that. So I'm really cheered up by the
599
00:33:13.019 --> 00:33:15.099
Andy Burnham phenomenon. The question is, is he going to
600
00:33:15.140 --> 00:33:19.240
be able to hold on to what he's found? He's
601
00:33:19.279 --> 00:33:21.619
a much, much better mayor than he was a member
602
00:33:21.640 --> 00:33:23.839
of the Westminster Parliament. And the question is, has that
603
00:33:24.259 --> 00:33:26.400
changed him permanently? Or is he going to revert back
604
00:33:27.279 --> 00:33:29.490
and be sucked back into the Westminster game? Or can
605
00:33:29.529 --> 00:33:31.529
he keep some of that confidence and energy?
606
00:33:31.890 --> 00:33:34.289
Yeah. And what will Lindsay Hoyle say if he turns
607
00:33:34.349 --> 00:33:37.289
up in Parliament with a black vest on? I mean,
608
00:33:37.309 --> 00:33:40.670
that could be. Are the rules still not that you
609
00:33:40.710 --> 00:33:42.809
have to wear a shirt and a collar and a tie? Yeah,
610
00:33:43.009 --> 00:33:43.269
you do.
611
00:33:43.309 --> 00:33:44.609
You do, absolutely.
612
00:33:44.930 --> 00:33:48.309
I think the other couple of points on Andy, maybe
613
00:33:48.329 --> 00:33:50.990
to end on, and also I've just been, somebody's just
614
00:33:51.009 --> 00:33:53.150
sent me Nigel Farage's reaction. I'll give you that in
615
00:33:53.190 --> 00:33:55.390
a minute. It's interesting, are you there saying he's very
616
00:33:55.470 --> 00:33:58.990
non-tribal and et cetera, et cetera, and non-divisive, but in
617
00:33:59.049 --> 00:34:03.240
a way... Those people who feel very, very loyal to
618
00:34:03.279 --> 00:34:06.079
Keir Starmer are going to be sitting there thinking, how
619
00:34:06.099 --> 00:34:10.119
can you even say that? He's exploited divisiveness and tribalism
620
00:34:11.030 --> 00:34:12.070
to get where he is.
621
00:34:12.329 --> 00:34:15.969
Explain that to me. Because I suppose I'm talking as
622
00:34:16.090 --> 00:34:21.230
a non-Labour tribal member. I'm not. picking up with him
623
00:34:21.550 --> 00:34:25.170
a sort of particular nastiness towards Tory voters. I remember
624
00:34:25.210 --> 00:34:28.590
when we were interviewing Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves, Bridget Philipson
625
00:34:28.650 --> 00:34:30.889
before the election, I got a real sense that these
626
00:34:30.909 --> 00:34:33.449
were people who were very, very uncomfortable with Tories. Whereas
627
00:34:33.489 --> 00:34:35.710
when I interviewed Andy Burnham, I didn't feel that at all.
628
00:34:35.750 --> 00:34:40.230
I felt he was good-humoured, he was quite broad-minded. So
629
00:34:40.269 --> 00:34:42.909
why does he seem tribal within the party when he
630
00:34:43.070 --> 00:34:44.829
doesn't seem tribal outside the party?
631
00:34:45.030 --> 00:34:47.530
Well, no, it's not that he's tribal, but you can't
632
00:34:47.590 --> 00:34:50.059
say he's not divisive when he's whole. Right, right. His
633
00:34:50.079 --> 00:34:52.579
whole strategy at the moment is to find a way
634
00:34:52.619 --> 00:34:54.900
to get rid of the prime minister, which the Labour
635
00:34:54.940 --> 00:34:58.260
Party does not do historically. Let's just say he does
636
00:34:58.300 --> 00:35:00.889
come in and let's say he does become prime minister.
637
00:35:01.530 --> 00:35:03.250
As you say, he'll want to make a mark. He'll
638
00:35:03.269 --> 00:35:07.670
have to work out the balance between I am change,
639
00:35:08.309 --> 00:35:10.449
but not pushing it so far that people say, well,
640
00:35:10.469 --> 00:35:13.429
hold on a minute. That's not in Labour's manifesto. You
641
00:35:13.469 --> 00:35:15.869
need your own mandate. And the other thing he'll do
642
00:35:15.909 --> 00:35:18.409
to signal change is to make cabinet changes. He would
643
00:35:18.449 --> 00:35:23.739
do that now. That creates enemies. That creates division.
644
00:35:23.840 --> 00:35:26.460
I think it's fine. I think he has to be changed.
645
00:35:26.800 --> 00:35:29.090
You were right about that with Rishi Sunak, that the
646
00:35:29.230 --> 00:35:32.610
stupidest thing for Rishi Sunak was not to distance himself enough.
647
00:35:33.170 --> 00:35:37.329
And again, my least favourite politician, Boris Johnson, managed to
648
00:35:37.369 --> 00:35:40.090
do that. He came in and he became absolute change
649
00:35:40.159 --> 00:35:43.059
and he just leant into that. Totally redid his cabinet.
650
00:35:43.639 --> 00:35:47.599
People like me walked out in disgust and horror. He
651
00:35:47.659 --> 00:35:50.590
took the party in a radically different direction. And he
652
00:35:50.630 --> 00:35:52.429
did it successfully. Now, it turned out that he was
653
00:35:52.469 --> 00:35:57.469
defeated by his own lack of focus, lack of morality,
654
00:35:57.710 --> 00:36:01.619
lack of clarity. But what he did prove is that
655
00:36:02.679 --> 00:36:05.320
people want change and Andy Burnham needs to have change.
656
00:36:05.340 --> 00:36:08.380
And the worst thing that Andy Burnham could possibly do is,
657
00:36:09.579 --> 00:36:13.219
you know, keep Rachel Reeves as Chancellor, keep Bridget Philipson
658
00:36:13.280 --> 00:36:16.809
in education. I think if he was bold, and this
659
00:36:16.829 --> 00:36:18.750
will be really difficult for him, but I think it
660
00:36:18.789 --> 00:36:22.320
would be very interesting to move Ed Miliband to another
661
00:36:22.460 --> 00:36:26.260
really serious great office of state position, maybe out of
662
00:36:26.320 --> 00:36:27.909
energy would signal something interesting.
663
00:36:28.150 --> 00:36:30.690
Well, Ed, I don't have any doubt at all that
664
00:36:30.730 --> 00:36:32.789
Ed would like to be Chancellor of the Exchequer. There's
665
00:36:32.829 --> 00:36:36.650
no doubt about that at all. But what the reaction
666
00:36:36.789 --> 00:36:39.820
to that would be, on vera. But the other thing,
667
00:36:39.840 --> 00:36:42.099
and talking about Chancellor of the Exchequer, of course, don't forget,
668
00:36:42.139 --> 00:36:43.320
you know, if there's going to be a budget in
669
00:36:43.340 --> 00:36:45.480
the autumn, there's not going to be an economic miracle
670
00:36:45.519 --> 00:36:47.760
between now and the autumn. It's going to be pretty tough,
671
00:36:48.920 --> 00:36:52.199
added to which some of the process is already underway.
672
00:36:52.260 --> 00:36:55.679
There's already kind of some of the preparation for that. So, look,
673
00:36:55.719 --> 00:36:59.550
it is going to be really really fascinating it's all
674
00:36:59.590 --> 00:37:04.349
depending in the next bit on Keir Starmer's actual reaction
675
00:37:04.409 --> 00:37:06.690
I don't just mean a post I mean what he's
676
00:37:06.929 --> 00:37:10.369
actually thinking and actually planning and thinking he might do
677
00:37:10.489 --> 00:37:12.309
and then and then the others and of course MPs
678
00:37:12.349 --> 00:37:14.289
and ministers are going to be chattering away to each
679
00:37:14.329 --> 00:37:16.050
other all over the weekend.
680
00:37:16.250 --> 00:37:17.769
Final one for me I just just sort of worried
681
00:37:17.809 --> 00:37:21.550
about the Starmer reaction point because if it's inevitable you
682
00:37:21.570 --> 00:37:24.090
know let's say you're Rory's right and there's a close
683
00:37:24.110 --> 00:37:26.369
to 100% chance that Andy Burnham's the next prime minister
684
00:37:26.869 --> 00:37:32.110
then presumably, ideally, Starmer would be gracious and cheerful and supportive.
685
00:37:32.130 --> 00:37:35.409
I mean, there's nothing to be gained by him being grumpy, bitter,
686
00:37:35.849 --> 00:37:37.929
angry and chippy about the whole thing. I mean, it
687
00:37:37.989 --> 00:37:41.030
may be inevitable given his personality and the situation, but
688
00:37:41.690 --> 00:37:44.530
it's not really in his interest, Labour's interest or the
689
00:37:44.570 --> 00:37:46.489
country's interest for him to approach it like that.
690
00:37:46.659 --> 00:37:52.280
But he may think that he would be better. He
691
00:37:52.340 --> 00:37:52.980
may think that.
692
00:37:53.360 --> 00:37:55.420
I'm sure Joe Biden thought that he'd be a better president.
693
00:37:55.750 --> 00:37:56.869
president than Kamala Harris.
694
00:37:57.030 --> 00:38:00.809
Well, that's right. Maybe that illustrates your point. And of course,
695
00:38:01.050 --> 00:38:03.190
we now have a situation where neither of them are.
696
00:38:03.610 --> 00:38:06.320
My point is, look, you've been in politics, you know this.
697
00:38:07.340 --> 00:38:11.739
Never rule out the kind of, there's something different to
698
00:38:11.800 --> 00:38:15.900
most people inside the politician that makes them not always
699
00:38:16.480 --> 00:38:20.449
see things in a way that a conventional wisdom might
700
00:38:20.489 --> 00:38:23.610
be forming to see them. And that's just why I
701
00:38:23.650 --> 00:38:27.409
think we're We're still in kind of nobody quite knows
702
00:38:27.429 --> 00:38:30.590
what happens next territory. What is beyond doubt is that
703
00:38:30.650 --> 00:38:34.170
Andy Burnham has taken a big, bold risk. And also,
704
00:38:34.190 --> 00:38:35.530
the other thing to remember, or you don't forget, there's
705
00:38:35.550 --> 00:38:39.440
now a by-election for the Manchester mayoralty. Andy Burnham, who
706
00:38:39.780 --> 00:38:42.500
will be enjoying his triumph today, what he can't do
707
00:38:42.659 --> 00:38:47.440
is then be held responsible for something terrible. I don't
708
00:38:47.460 --> 00:38:49.119
think he will. If Labour get their act together on
709
00:38:49.139 --> 00:38:50.800
the back of this, I think Labour should be able
710
00:38:50.820 --> 00:38:53.440
to to find the right candidate and to hold that.
711
00:38:53.900 --> 00:38:56.579
But not a given, far from a given. Let me
712
00:38:56.619 --> 00:38:58.889
just tell you, I said before we go, Rory, and
713
00:38:58.969 --> 00:39:02.349
we go and talk to Gabrielle Zuckmann. Should we do
714
00:39:02.369 --> 00:39:03.750
it in French or English? Which do you prefer?
715
00:39:04.989 --> 00:39:06.369
You're definitely going to do it in French.
716
00:39:06.730 --> 00:39:10.940
I'm not, I'm not, I'm not. So Nigel Farage has
717
00:39:10.980 --> 00:39:14.360
said he's disappointed. Well, that's good news. And he's urged
718
00:39:14.380 --> 00:39:17.880
some of his supporters who defected to Restore to think again. See,
719
00:39:17.900 --> 00:39:19.969
that's him acknowledging that tactical.
720
00:39:19.550 --> 00:39:23.210
Votes keep him out. This was a speech written assuming
721
00:39:23.250 --> 00:39:25.269
that the only reason he didn't win was because of Restore.
722
00:39:25.309 --> 00:39:26.969
And of course, the great thing is that even if
723
00:39:26.989 --> 00:39:29.070
they'd combined their votes, they wouldn't have beaten Andy Burnham.
724
00:39:29.090 --> 00:39:31.400
I think that's true, yes. So he goes on. What
725
00:39:31.460 --> 00:39:35.219
really happened here was it was vote Burnham, get Keir
726
00:39:35.239 --> 00:39:38.960
Starmer out, which, of course, was our campaign message leading
727
00:39:39.039 --> 00:39:41.599
up to the locals on May the 7th. So we
728
00:39:41.639 --> 00:39:45.440
were slightly, get this, very French, hoisted with our own petard.
729
00:39:46.420 --> 00:39:48.179
As for the reform vote share, well, I thought we'd
730
00:39:48.199 --> 00:39:50.820
get 18,000 votes. We got just shy of 16, so
731
00:39:50.920 --> 00:39:54.800
I'm disappointed, no question about that. So there you are.
732
00:39:54.989 --> 00:39:57.289
I think that's good that he's disappointed, because I think
733
00:39:57.349 --> 00:40:01.190
deep down maybe he knows that there is a way
734
00:40:01.210 --> 00:40:04.530
to beat reform, and he's just taken a bit of
735
00:40:04.570 --> 00:40:06.349
a beating. And don't forget, they're lost in Care Philly
736
00:40:07.630 --> 00:40:12.179
to Plaid. They're lost in Gordon and Denton to the Greens.
737
00:40:13.380 --> 00:40:15.519
and now they're lost to Labour. So it underlines that
738
00:40:15.559 --> 00:40:17.860
point I made earlier. There is a very large body
739
00:40:17.880 --> 00:40:21.070
of opinion that thinks the idea of Nigel Farage being
740
00:40:21.090 --> 00:40:24.469
Prime Minister is truly horrific, and we have to try
741
00:40:24.530 --> 00:40:25.130
to stop it.
742
00:40:25.469 --> 00:40:27.730
Well, very good luck, I think, to Andy Burnham is
743
00:40:27.769 --> 00:40:30.909
my view at the moment. Because whatever my views are
744
00:40:31.269 --> 00:40:34.469
on British politics, I would much rather we had Andy
745
00:40:34.510 --> 00:40:38.309
Burnham as Prime Minister than Nigel Farage or Rupert Lowe.
746
00:40:39.050 --> 00:40:42.010
And I think a lot is riding on this. Can
747
00:40:42.090 --> 00:40:44.610
he be the Mark Carney? Can he be the figure
748
00:40:45.690 --> 00:40:49.449
of the center who brings people together? Stands for democracy,
749
00:40:49.510 --> 00:40:54.949
stands for compromise, stands for persuasion against these increasingly disturbing
750
00:40:55.170 --> 00:41:00.599
and brutal populist parties. And I mean increasingly disturbing and brutal.
751
00:41:00.659 --> 00:41:03.739
I don't care that everybody listening to me who's on
752
00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.949
the Tory side is now flirting with reform. Look at
753
00:41:07.050 --> 00:41:09.570
the kind of stuff that these people are posting. Look
754
00:41:09.590 --> 00:41:12.449
at what they're saying. Look at people like Elon Musk
755
00:41:12.469 --> 00:41:15.570
getting in behind them. I think there is an incredible
756
00:41:15.590 --> 00:41:21.360
opportunity if Burnham holds the ground to unite people and
757
00:41:21.380 --> 00:41:23.980
inspire people again. And I was so sad that Keir
758
00:41:24.000 --> 00:41:26.280
Starmer failed to do it. And he failed to do
759
00:41:26.320 --> 00:41:29.010
it because they were too small-minded. They were too labor.
760
00:41:29.050 --> 00:41:32.190
They were too bitter. They were too anti-Tory. They were
761
00:41:32.250 --> 00:41:34.630
too ungenerous in the way that they talked about things.
762
00:41:35.650 --> 00:41:37.929
Burnham really, I think, can do it. But he's just
763
00:41:37.969 --> 00:41:40.050
got to hold on to the Burnham of Manchester and
764
00:41:40.090 --> 00:41:43.800
not become the Burnham of sort of 2010 Westminster.
765
00:41:44.059 --> 00:41:47.599
Yeah. And also, in the end, it is about ideas.
766
00:41:47.699 --> 00:41:51.920
It's three years. It's a long time. He's going to inherit,
767
00:41:52.059 --> 00:41:54.349
if he becomes prime minister, all the difficult challenges that
768
00:41:54.369 --> 00:41:58.030
Keir Starmer's had. But I think, you know, you cannot
769
00:41:58.070 --> 00:41:59.789
take away the fact that he's done the big bowl
770
00:41:59.809 --> 00:42:04.750
thing and on what is going to be a complicated...
771
00:42:04.659 --> 00:42:08.119
journey it's uh this stage has without doubt paid off
772
00:42:08.599 --> 00:42:11.559
okay and just before we finish rory bit of housekeeping
773
00:42:12.119 --> 00:42:15.599
given we've done this make a field episode today who
774
00:42:15.760 --> 00:42:18.960
funds reform episode four which was due out today will
775
00:42:18.980 --> 00:42:22.260
be out next friday sign up at the rest is politics.com
776
00:42:22.639 --> 00:42:24.380
to catch up on the first three episodes and be
777
00:42:24.440 --> 00:42:27.460
ready for episode four when it drops on friday and
778
00:42:27.480 --> 00:42:28.739
you may or may not be pleased to know a
779
00:42:28.880 --> 00:42:30.980
lot of it is about nigel farage and his funding
780
00:42:31.480 --> 00:42:33.000
see you then see you then bye-bye