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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.
00:00:03
Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that action also.
00:00:07
Speaker 3: All right, here we go.
00:00:09
Speaker 2: From growing in I'm sitting up to cash to start.
00:00:15
Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.
00:00:24
Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to pull.
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Speaker 4: And we are underway.
00:00:37
Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?
00:00:38
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.
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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's a divisional round of the.
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Speaker 1: NFL playoffs and we have any time touchdowns for you. I'll be joined momentarily by Sean Kerner and Joe Gallant will give out our favorite touchdown bets from each of the four divisional games.
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Speaker 2: Uh, pretty big week for the pod.
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Speaker 1: Last week it on Jalen Cocher, Kobe Park Looking to the DJ Moore, Jaden Reed, Dalton Kkid Parker Washington, and Woody Mars. So pretty good week for the pod. We'll go through each of the four games for the divisional round. We'll each give a touchdown bet and that one will track all of them in a Touchdown Show account on the Action Network app, so be sure to follow that. If you want to tail some of the bets, you can also look for the quick slip a link in the podcast video descriptions or but actionnetwork dot com slash bet. Now, before we get into the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to myself for a word from our sponsor. The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Staying on the Action and use your bonus bets on DraftKings same game parlays for a shot an even bigger payout. To get started, use promo code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use Code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings and bet five bucks to get three one hundred back in bonus best If your bet wins, the crown is yours. All right, fellas, good week last week Kerner Europe. First, we'll start with the Bills and the Broncos. I mean, our producer was talking bills don't have any receivers.
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Speaker 2: What are we doing? What are we doing? In this one?
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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with one of the receivers actually keon Coleman at plus five point fifty. I mean Josh Palmer's and I are. Gabe Davis is now on IR now, Tyrrel Shavers is now on IR with that ACL tear.
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Speaker 3: So the Bills, like you said, are very thin out wide receiver.
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Speaker 4: And you know Coleman has been a huge disappointment as their second round pick last season. He's missed a handful of games this season, I guess for you know, disciplinary reasons as a healthy scratch. But you know they should be forced to play him quite a bit here and this this is a tougher matchup, you know, against the Broncos. But Coleman's kind of a boom bust receiver anyway. I don't know if I would touch like his receiving yard prop like any kind of media market, but when it comes to was upside like a touchdown market, I'm more than you know, willing to roll the dice on him, especially because despite missing a handful of games this year, he does, you know, leave the team with six in zone targets. So Josh Allen when he does throw the end zone does look Coleman's way. He is more of a big play receiver, So I think you know there's some value here taking him at plus five fifty.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's him, Brandon Cooks and Shakir pretty much what they got going on at receiver. Jill, good week for you, as week you're on fire. I know that Saturday, soe, I mean you had who's cocher?
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Speaker 2: Jaden Reed?
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Speaker 1: I feel like everyone you had I got in the end zone. Where are we going to start it off this week?
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Speaker 5: Well, this one, we're just gonna go to the wide receiver. One on the Broncos side, Courtland Sutton. He's around plus two hundred. He finished the year with seven receiving touchdowns and for the season, he's tied for the team lead with Troy Franklin with eleven end zone targets. But that's kind of if you use a full season split, if you look at just the second half of the year, or even target it down to like the last five games, Franklin's taking it a bit of a step back in his role, while Sutton is kind of seeing an elite target share over eight and a half targets per game, seven en zone targets and three receiving touchdowns over that final five game stretch. Also saw eleven deep targets compared to like the next one seeing two, and that was Pat Bryant. And Pat Bryant is another reason why I'm not really feeling the other wide receivers like a Troy Franklin or a little Jordan Humphrey or even Marvin Mims. They're all kind of gumming for Troy Franklin's role and that's kind of leaving Courtland Sutton to get that elite target share. And I mean, we just saw the Bills allow two touchdowns and wide receivers versus the Jags. And also, I think this is kind of game script proof. I feel like if the Broncos are trailing, there's more pass attempts coming from Bownicks, and if they're leading, I think they're going to keep their foot on the gas to negate any potential like superhero comeback from Josh Allen. So give me Courtland Sutton around plus two hundred. Yeah, he's their guy.
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Speaker 1: I mean, he's the guy they're always gonna try to get the ball to, probably the most stable Bronco along with I guess Harvey in this spot, I'm gonna go with Josh Allen at even money and for the simple fact that I don't trust the Bills passing game at all in this spot. I mean, Broncos defense is elite. Uh, they they play a lot of man coverage. The Bills really struggle against man coverage. Just look at their their top receivers against man coverage this year aren't on the team. Like Elijah Moore's best in yards versus route run, He's not on the team. Palmer Ir Shaver's Ir Davis. I are like Shakir is like he's much better versus zone. So it's gonna be tough, uh, you know, especially if if Sewn's Coleman pick doesn't hit. So but I do think the Bills get at least one get it in the end zone. So it comes down to Josh Allen or James Cook. And all has been running a ton more in the postseason under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He has eight rushing touchdowns in eight games in you know, over the last three postseasons. So h Allen to get in the end zone again. I know he's hurt, but I think that's why we're getting even money instead of some minus odds.
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Speaker 2: And it's a tough defense.
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Speaker 1: But like like Allen to kind of put the team on his back as he does, so going to him at even money. Next up, Niners Seahawks rematch. Uh Niners have scored twenty points in two games and then the Seahawks have scored twenty six. So this has been a love scoring matchup, Kerner, where we looking for a touchdown in this one.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go pretty chucky here and go with my guy Jackson Smith and Jigba at minus one oh five. You know, Donald targeted him a ridiculous thirty three percent of the time this season, had a you know, a true breakout season as you know, one of the top receivers in the league now. And but if you break down, you know how Darnald targets him when he's under pressure versus clean pocket. Donald targeted him, you know, eighteen percent of the time when he was under pressure, but when he had a clean pocket, it was all the way up to forty percent, which is insane. And the Niners ever since they lost Nick Bosa back in Week three, they've had the second lowest pressure rate. So I think, you know, Donald should have a fairly clean pocket here, and we've seen you know, jsn see nearly a two times higher target right when Donald does have a clean pocket. So I think in the playoffs, you know Donald's is going to continue to target his guy here.
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Speaker 3: So give me a JSN at minus one oh five.
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Speaker 1: Joe who we're looking at in Niners Seahawks?
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Speaker 5: Sure, normally I take Juwan Jennings in this spot. I don't love him in this matchup, and I get there's no real replacing George Kittle. But if there has been a one for one replacement in the Niners offense, I think it's Jake Tongus the tight end. He scored five touchdowns this year, and in the six games where Kittle has missed time, he has seen a huge uptick in targets. I think what most surprised me is going back through those games, he actually led the nine in total routes run in those six games, and he was second on the team in targets per route run and tied for the team lead in red zone targets. If you go all the way back to Week one, like, for example, when the Niners face the Seahawks, Tongas ended up scoring against this defense after Kittle left the game with injury. Now the Seahawks defense, they don't really have a ton of weaknesses their first de defensive dvahit versus the past, but they have given up yardage and touchdowns and tight ends and they ranked bottom five and targets, catches and yards to the position. So right around plus three fifty, I think this is a solid spot for Tongus to get another touchdown.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, it may have to be him.
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Speaker 1: The Seahawks have been so good against number one receivers. I think they're number one in DVOA. Jennings has done nothing in the two matchups. I'm gonna go with Zach Sharbonay at minus one oh five.
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Speaker 2: And if you look at the.
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Speaker 1: Last three games alone, so Sharbone has kind of been you started the year, he's like the goal line back, and then Walker started to get more involved and eventually it kind of flipped back a little bit to scharbon Ay.
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Speaker 2: But the last three games, if you look.
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Speaker 1: At expected touchdowns, so that looks at you know, where you are on the field, where you're getting your carries or your targets. Zach Charboney has ten times as many expected touchdowns as Kenneth Walker over the last three games alone. So I think sharbon Ay is is a value. It's still a value even though he is, you know, right right at that minus one oh five number. You know, you look at the last three games, he's had four rushing touchdowns and you know, four touchdowns overall Kenneth Walker's had won. But again, if you look at the expected touchdowns, you know it could be it could be a bigger split than that in favor of Charbonnay. So I think the Seahawks are going to be able to run the ball here. You know, Niners they tend not to stack the box like that's just for some reason. They've always prioritized just limiting explosives sitting back regardless of what's going on with their defense and their linebackers. Very low stack box rate on the year for the Niners. So give me some Charbonne to get into the end zone for that would be the fourth game in a row. All right, Before we get to the Sunday slate, don't forget sign up for Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, myself, Grant Nefer, Joe Golant, our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go to Actionetwork dot com slash pro and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo code pod at twenty. That's Pod two zero. Don't mess out on the best bets at the best prices. It's an Action network dot com slash pro and use promo code Pod two zero to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. Sunday, we got the Texans going to New England to face the Patriots coming off that win against the Chargers. Kurner, who do you like in this one?
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Speaker 3: Yeah?
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Speaker 4: I like Jaden Higgins here at plus three twenty. I think if you look at the second half of the season, I think he was like my Isaac Toslaw where I've given him out like anytime I've had a chance to. So you're gonna have to go with him here because you know, Nico Collins is looking if he here because you know he suffered that concussion on Monday night, so that gives him one last day to clear. Still hasn't practiced yet on Wednesday, so I'm assuming he's doubtful here, which means you know, Jayden Higgins is gonna be the you know, wide receiver I think is gonna have to step up kind of in his place. I kind of comped Jayden Higgins to Nico Collins when he got drafted, So I think he's a you know, a pretty solid one for one replacement for him. And you know, he's been much much better in the second half of the season. He scored in five games now over the final twelve games, and now he's scored a touchdown in both games that Nico Collins has missed. So that's that's a very good treadheading of this game. And on the other side, you know, Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion too. He's probably more likely to clear a protocol, but there's still a chance he ends up getting ruled out, which would only make this matchup better. So I like Higgins here at plus three twenty. If Nico's out, you know, I'd be projecting him closer to plus two seventy.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, And I like that too, because I think the market might be overrating Woody Marks a little bit coming off that big game. But the Patriots run defense has just been i mean lights out against you know, with the Milton Williams on the field, so the Texas might have to still pass more, especially you know it, scoring position. Then you know, you might think, I mean, they had a positive game script pretty much all all game, last game, and in most of Mark's big games too, So like that one. But don't forget about our guy e Xavier Hutchinson. He'll he'll probably ruin everything for us. Yeah, Joe, there you going Patriots and Texans.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just gonna say that both hutch and Higgins.
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Speaker 5: You know, price over plus three hundred right now, and if Collins isn't going to play, it's pretty wild prices for a wide receiver one and two. But I'm gonna go to the Patriots side. I'm gonna take Drake May for at any time touchdown. He's a round plus three thirty. He hasn't scored since Week fifteen. He ran for two touchdowns versus the Bills, was encouraging what we saw against the Chargers. Still used his legs to scramble finish with ten rushing attempts sixty six rushing yards. Now, he finished the season only four rushing touchdowns, but he's live to score in any given game because of his scrambler. He led all quarterbacks in total scrambles. He was second in the NFL and scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes and the Texans defense. There they can likely get pressure on the Patriots without blitzing. But May has actually had a decent scramble rate against teams that don't blitz, like the Chargers last week and who are bottom five and blitz rate. He scrambled five times in that game. So going through the matchups of the teams where he plays that they don't blitz and they get pressure, he tends to see a little bit more of a scramble rate. So for me, anything over three to one, I love the value for Drake May.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, Drake May, He's gonna use his legs.
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Speaker 1: I think regardless, guys are probably gonna be covered, So I would expect him to that scramble rate to increase here. But I'm gonna go with the Hunter Henry at plus two ten. If the Texans do give up a passing touchdown, I think, you know, giving it up to the tight end could be very likely here. You know, since Week thirteen, they've given up five touchdowns to tight ends. Tyler Warren got one McBride got a couple Bowers, Aronde, Gatston, so pretty much any you know, kind of upper tier tight end, which I think Henry is, you know, kind of one of the top targets on this team. Has gotten into the end zone against Houston, and that makes sense because it's very tough, you know, to score on their outside corners Lasseter and and Stingy, So Patriots receivers, you know, could.
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Speaker 2: Be limited here.
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Speaker 1: So yeah, expect some Drake may scrambling and uh expecting him to look for Hunter Henry in the red zone. Final game of the weekend Rams Bears Kerner, who we like here? I think I know where you're going. You talk about a guy you've given out a lot one more time, at least that one more time.
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Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean, if they make the Super Bowl, have you know, a couple more chances to give him out. But I'm going to go with Blake quorum here at plus two sixty five. And you know, I think in last week I was pretty curious to see how the Rams would kind of use their running back rootation, just considering Kora mixed in a lot more over the second half of the season, and there was this belief that it was, you know, to help lighten Kien Williams workload and keep him fresh for the playoffs. But you know, Korm was so good, and you know, by Kiren being somewhat limited, you know, he's been so efficient that they just kind of stuck with that approach in the wild card round against the Panthers. So I think we could expect Korn to continue to you know, play around thirty percent of the snaps and see you know, a decent amount of carries here.
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Speaker 3: Because this is a game.
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Speaker 4: I think they are going to lean on their backs a little bit more because Stafford's dealing with that finger injury on his you know, right index finger, and you know it's going to be freezing cold, so they might just want to lean on the run attack. This Bears run defense that just lost linebacker TJ. Edwards, who you know has only one mistackle on two hundred and thirty six two hundred and thirty eight run snaps. He's in the sixth loss rate among one hundred qualified linemackers. So and you know, both Rams running backs like to run up the middle, so I think this is a great matchup for them. Project him closer to plus two twenty. So I like the value we're getting at plus two sixty five.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, with Edward's out of the line up five point seven yards per carry, a touchdown per game, a touchdown rate of three point eight percent, which is you know, one point two point seven percent with Edwards in. So that's a pretty big angry in terms of touchdown rate, uh for for backs and uh you know, I think I think that I think the Rams, Yeah, they're going to be super run heavy in the spot.
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Speaker 2: Joe who like in Bears Rams.
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Speaker 5: I'm running the bet the guy back that we both bet last week, man Dj Moore, he's around plus three twenty And Kerner, you surprised me. I thought you were going to take Luther Burden in this spot. But I guess Korham has the slight edge and your likability factor here. Yeah, but one of the reasons why I keep going back to More is I think they've kind of figured out that he is going to be running the wide receiver one routes. Regardless of you know, the emergence of Burdens, the key iss so Roma Dunes, they still kind of dealing with a bit of an injury and over the second half of the regular season, he was leaned on heavily, scoring six of his seven touchdowns. He's still getting, you know, wide receiver one routes and usage. It still ran the most routes of any wide receiver last week in the wildcard game, and they're facing a Rams defense that likes to play a lot of zone and limit's exposed to play is very similar to the Packers. And the other thing that I'm encouraged too is that they're really starting to use him out of the slot a little bit more. He was at a thirty four percent rate in the wildcard game. That's consistent of what we saw during the season when he was around thirty one percent. And we also just saw like a slot receiver like Jayalen Coker have a big game against this Rams defense last week, scored a touchdown, saw a career high in receiving yards. So I think DJ Moore is going to be relied on again. If you want to take Luther Burden at three to one, I will not knock that that's actually a pretty good price, But I'm going to go with DJ Moore at plus three twenty.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, just a massive value again in my projection.
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Speaker 1: I just don't understand why the market keeps, uh keeps underrating him.
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Speaker 2: Mister Burton effect man talked him up too much.
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Speaker 4: I mean, I mean Colson Loveland has just taken off.
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Speaker 2: So yeah, that's why that's what I'm I thought about Burden.
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Speaker 1: So so the thing I like Burden too, But I think Burden's a little riskier because there is a chance, you know, it's freezing cold, Bears may want to wean into their you know, two tight end sets even more. They've even been calling up a fourth tight end to play special teams Nicola Clinic. So like they they're they they they're gonna have reinforcements, uh at that position. So I think love Wind is kind of locked in, whereas Burden, his usage is a little shakier. So at two to one, I still show value on Burden. He's averaging over half an expected touchdown per game ever since that breakout game he had against the Bengals, uh mid season, and uh, he's become the number one target here And yeah, mentioned it rams struggle kind of interior wise, and it's it's this is just a guy that they're gonna be looking to in the red zone. We saw them get a matchup even on a two point conversion. They got a matchup where they came out heavy and then kind of spread everyone out, and Lovewood was on like a mindbacker, edge rusher or somebody somebody big, so like they can kind of dictate these things.
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Speaker 2: So I love him to.
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Speaker 1: Get in the end zone for the Bears. That wraps up the four games. But we're gonna do our favorite partway. We're gonna do our favorite touchdown bet each so that we can make a partway for the divisional round, and that is presented by drafting. So our favorite Divisional round anytime touchdown score, Kerner, start us off. Who you like best out of these four games to score a touchdown?
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Speaker 4: Blake Korum at plus two sixty five. You know, still mixing in quite a bit and not opening round of the playoffs, and this is a game I think the Rams will lean on the run game a little bit more with Stafford dealing with that finger injury, with the freezing cold, and you know, Bears just lost top linebacker TJ.
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Speaker 3: Edwards. So give me Korham at plus two sixty five.
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Speaker 1: Joe, where are we going? Favorite anytime touchdown score for the Divisional round?
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Speaker 5: Courtland Sutton gonna go with him. I feel like he's gonna see ten plus targets in this game. And again, I still think he's very matchup proof. Whether they're Broncos are maybe even leading by ten plus or trailing by ten plus, he's gonna get at least ten plus targets.
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Speaker 1: It going with Coaston love Wind almost called him Courtland. I think who was somebody one of those announcers was calling Coaston love Wind Courtland love Wind. I think it was you. That was that herbstreak. Yeah, I think it was Herb Street and Michael's. They had the Prime it was the Prime.
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Speaker 3: Game, right, Yeah, it was Herb.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he was.
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Speaker 1: He kept saying Courtland Love and I'm like, oh man, but yeah, if you parway anytime touchdowns for Blake Korum, Courtland Sutton, and Colston Loveland thirty two to one at DraftKings, So Korum and Loveland would be kind of the same game. Well correlation there, because you know Korum can get one early and then the Bears, you know, get getting down and of course they'll go with They'll have to throw and somehow get back into the game as they do. But yeah, that's then you add Sutton in there and what I think would be a low scoring game. Believe that is a walk under for us here that that Bills and Broncos game. So all together, thirty two to one is pretty juicy. That's our anytime touchdown Parway for the Divisional Round presented by DraftKings. All right, we're gonna add We'll add our favorite Partway to the Parway Express account in the Action of our app, so you can follow that account to if you haven't already. That's where we post our longer shot bets and things like that. So have some fun with us. Follow that account if you're looking for those type of bets. And while you're looking at Parway Express, be sure to sign up up for Action Pro. It's the only way for you to get the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications when Action experts track their picks, and these lines do move. Kerner and I mean we were just talking on a pot about it. I think it was Xavier Hutchinson at like thirty seven and a half and I'm looking down he's like at twenty nine and a half. I didn't even get to bet it yet, so I probably won't at this point. But yeah, these lines move even when we don't even when we don't bet him, so be sure to sign in for Action Pro to get those into notifications. You can also find quick slip links for the bets that we've made in this podcast in the podcast description, or you can go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet Now. That'll do it for our divisional round touchdown show presented by DraftKings. Many thanks to Sean Kerder and Jill Glant for joining me. If you haven't yet, you can check out our new AI Quick Flip Bot playbook on X Just tag at playbook. Also, you can find Kerner on X at the Underscore Odds Maker and Jill at G Doug five thousand g e a w G five zero zero zero. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.
00:23:08
Speaker 2: So next week, let's get this money
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.
00:00:03
Speaker 2: I'm gonna just about that action also.
00:00:07
Speaker 3: All right, here we go.
00:00:09
Speaker 2: From growing in I'm sitting up to cash to start.
00:00:15
Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.
00:00:24
Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to pull.
00:00:31
Speaker 4: And we are underway.
00:00:37
Speaker 2: What's up, everybody?
00:00:38
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.
00:00:41
Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. It's a divisional round of the.
00:00:43
Speaker 1: NFL playoffs and we have any time touchdowns for you. I'll be joined momentarily by Sean Kerner and Joe Gallant will give out our favorite touchdown bets from each of the four divisional games.
00:00:55
Speaker 2: Uh, pretty big week for the pod.
00:00:56
Speaker 1: Last week it on Jalen Cocher, Kobe Park Looking to the DJ Moore, Jaden Reed, Dalton Kkid Parker Washington, and Woody Mars. So pretty good week for the pod. We'll go through each of the four games for the divisional round. We'll each give a touchdown bet and that one will track all of them in a Touchdown Show account on the Action Network app, so be sure to follow that. If you want to tail some of the bets, you can also look for the quick slip a link in the podcast video descriptions or but actionnetwork dot com slash bet. Now, before we get into the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to myself for a word from our sponsor. The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings sportsbook, where new customers can bet five dollars and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins. Staying on the Action and use your bonus bets on DraftKings same game parlays for a shot an even bigger payout. To get started, use promo code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again, use Code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings and bet five bucks to get three one hundred back in bonus best If your bet wins, the crown is yours. All right, fellas, good week last week Kerner Europe. First, we'll start with the Bills and the Broncos. I mean, our producer was talking bills don't have any receivers.
00:02:20
Speaker 2: What are we doing? What are we doing? In this one?
00:02:21
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with one of the receivers actually keon Coleman at plus five point fifty. I mean Josh Palmer's and I are. Gabe Davis is now on IR now, Tyrrel Shavers is now on IR with that ACL tear.
00:02:34
Speaker 3: So the Bills, like you said, are very thin out wide receiver.
00:02:37
Speaker 4: And you know Coleman has been a huge disappointment as their second round pick last season. He's missed a handful of games this season, I guess for you know, disciplinary reasons as a healthy scratch. But you know they should be forced to play him quite a bit here and this this is a tougher matchup, you know, against the Broncos. But Coleman's kind of a boom bust receiver anyway. I don't know if I would touch like his receiving yard prop like any kind of media market, but when it comes to was upside like a touchdown market, I'm more than you know, willing to roll the dice on him, especially because despite missing a handful of games this year, he does, you know, leave the team with six in zone targets. So Josh Allen when he does throw the end zone does look Coleman's way. He is more of a big play receiver, So I think you know there's some value here taking him at plus five fifty.
00:03:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's him, Brandon Cooks and Shakir pretty much what they got going on at receiver. Jill, good week for you, as week you're on fire. I know that Saturday, soe, I mean you had who's cocher?
00:03:41
Speaker 2: Jaden Reed?
00:03:42
Speaker 1: I feel like everyone you had I got in the end zone. Where are we going to start it off this week?
00:03:47
Speaker 5: Well, this one, we're just gonna go to the wide receiver. One on the Broncos side, Courtland Sutton. He's around plus two hundred. He finished the year with seven receiving touchdowns and for the season, he's tied for the team lead with Troy Franklin with eleven end zone targets. But that's kind of if you use a full season split, if you look at just the second half of the year, or even target it down to like the last five games, Franklin's taking it a bit of a step back in his role, while Sutton is kind of seeing an elite target share over eight and a half targets per game, seven en zone targets and three receiving touchdowns over that final five game stretch. Also saw eleven deep targets compared to like the next one seeing two, and that was Pat Bryant. And Pat Bryant is another reason why I'm not really feeling the other wide receivers like a Troy Franklin or a little Jordan Humphrey or even Marvin Mims. They're all kind of gumming for Troy Franklin's role and that's kind of leaving Courtland Sutton to get that elite target share. And I mean, we just saw the Bills allow two touchdowns and wide receivers versus the Jags. And also, I think this is kind of game script proof. I feel like if the Broncos are trailing, there's more pass attempts coming from Bownicks, and if they're leading, I think they're going to keep their foot on the gas to negate any potential like superhero comeback from Josh Allen. So give me Courtland Sutton around plus two hundred. Yeah, he's their guy.
00:05:00
Speaker 1: I mean, he's the guy they're always gonna try to get the ball to, probably the most stable Bronco along with I guess Harvey in this spot, I'm gonna go with Josh Allen at even money and for the simple fact that I don't trust the Bills passing game at all in this spot. I mean, Broncos defense is elite. Uh, they they play a lot of man coverage. The Bills really struggle against man coverage. Just look at their their top receivers against man coverage this year aren't on the team. Like Elijah Moore's best in yards versus route run, He's not on the team. Palmer Ir Shaver's Ir Davis. I are like Shakir is like he's much better versus zone. So it's gonna be tough, uh, you know, especially if if Sewn's Coleman pick doesn't hit. So but I do think the Bills get at least one get it in the end zone. So it comes down to Josh Allen or James Cook. And all has been running a ton more in the postseason under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. He has eight rushing touchdowns in eight games in you know, over the last three postseasons. So h Allen to get in the end zone again. I know he's hurt, but I think that's why we're getting even money instead of some minus odds.
00:06:07
Speaker 2: And it's a tough defense.
00:06:08
Speaker 1: But like like Allen to kind of put the team on his back as he does, so going to him at even money. Next up, Niners Seahawks rematch. Uh Niners have scored twenty points in two games and then the Seahawks have scored twenty six. So this has been a love scoring matchup, Kerner, where we looking for a touchdown in this one.
00:06:34
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go pretty chucky here and go with my guy Jackson Smith and Jigba at minus one oh five. You know, Donald targeted him a ridiculous thirty three percent of the time this season, had a you know, a true breakout season as you know, one of the top receivers in the league now. And but if you break down, you know how Darnald targets him when he's under pressure versus clean pocket. Donald targeted him, you know, eighteen percent of the time when he was under pressure, but when he had a clean pocket, it was all the way up to forty percent, which is insane. And the Niners ever since they lost Nick Bosa back in Week three, they've had the second lowest pressure rate. So I think, you know, Donald should have a fairly clean pocket here, and we've seen you know, jsn see nearly a two times higher target right when Donald does have a clean pocket. So I think in the playoffs, you know Donald's is going to continue to target his guy here.
00:07:29
Speaker 3: So give me a JSN at minus one oh five.
00:07:34
Speaker 1: Joe who we're looking at in Niners Seahawks?
00:07:37
Speaker 5: Sure, normally I take Juwan Jennings in this spot. I don't love him in this matchup, and I get there's no real replacing George Kittle. But if there has been a one for one replacement in the Niners offense, I think it's Jake Tongus the tight end. He scored five touchdowns this year, and in the six games where Kittle has missed time, he has seen a huge uptick in targets. I think what most surprised me is going back through those games, he actually led the nine in total routes run in those six games, and he was second on the team in targets per route run and tied for the team lead in red zone targets. If you go all the way back to Week one, like, for example, when the Niners face the Seahawks, Tongas ended up scoring against this defense after Kittle left the game with injury. Now the Seahawks defense, they don't really have a ton of weaknesses their first de defensive dvahit versus the past, but they have given up yardage and touchdowns and tight ends and they ranked bottom five and targets, catches and yards to the position. So right around plus three fifty, I think this is a solid spot for Tongus to get another touchdown.
00:08:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, it may have to be him.
00:08:33
Speaker 1: The Seahawks have been so good against number one receivers. I think they're number one in DVOA. Jennings has done nothing in the two matchups. I'm gonna go with Zach Sharbonay at minus one oh five.
00:08:45
Speaker 2: And if you look at the.
00:08:47
Speaker 1: Last three games alone, so Sharbone has kind of been you started the year, he's like the goal line back, and then Walker started to get more involved and eventually it kind of flipped back a little bit to scharbon Ay.
00:08:58
Speaker 2: But the last three games, if you look.
00:09:02
Speaker 1: At expected touchdowns, so that looks at you know, where you are on the field, where you're getting your carries or your targets. Zach Charboney has ten times as many expected touchdowns as Kenneth Walker over the last three games alone. So I think sharbon Ay is is a value. It's still a value even though he is, you know, right right at that minus one oh five number. You know, you look at the last three games, he's had four rushing touchdowns and you know, four touchdowns overall Kenneth Walker's had won. But again, if you look at the expected touchdowns, you know it could be it could be a bigger split than that in favor of Charbonnay. So I think the Seahawks are going to be able to run the ball here. You know, Niners they tend not to stack the box like that's just for some reason. They've always prioritized just limiting explosives sitting back regardless of what's going on with their defense and their linebackers. Very low stack box rate on the year for the Niners. So give me some Charbonne to get into the end zone for that would be the fourth game in a row. All right, Before we get to the Sunday slate, don't forget sign up for Action Pro for real time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, myself, Grant Nefer, Joe Golant, our entire Action Network team. Plus you can access our pro projections powered by Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just go to Actionetwork dot com slash pro and get twenty dollars off the annual price with the promo code pod at twenty. That's Pod two zero. Don't mess out on the best bets at the best prices. It's an Action network dot com slash pro and use promo code Pod two zero to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro. Sunday, we got the Texans going to New England to face the Patriots coming off that win against the Chargers. Kurner, who do you like in this one?
00:10:50
Speaker 3: Yeah?
00:10:50
Speaker 4: I like Jaden Higgins here at plus three twenty. I think if you look at the second half of the season, I think he was like my Isaac Toslaw where I've given him out like anytime I've had a chance to. So you're gonna have to go with him here because you know, Nico Collins is looking if he here because you know he suffered that concussion on Monday night, so that gives him one last day to clear. Still hasn't practiced yet on Wednesday, so I'm assuming he's doubtful here, which means you know, Jayden Higgins is gonna be the you know, wide receiver I think is gonna have to step up kind of in his place. I kind of comped Jayden Higgins to Nico Collins when he got drafted, So I think he's a you know, a pretty solid one for one replacement for him. And you know, he's been much much better in the second half of the season. He scored in five games now over the final twelve games, and now he's scored a touchdown in both games that Nico Collins has missed. So that's that's a very good treadheading of this game. And on the other side, you know, Christian Gonzalez suffered a concussion too. He's probably more likely to clear a protocol, but there's still a chance he ends up getting ruled out, which would only make this matchup better. So I like Higgins here at plus three twenty. If Nico's out, you know, I'd be projecting him closer to plus two seventy.
00:12:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I like that too, because I think the market might be overrating Woody Marks a little bit coming off that big game. But the Patriots run defense has just been i mean lights out against you know, with the Milton Williams on the field, so the Texas might have to still pass more, especially you know it, scoring position. Then you know, you might think, I mean, they had a positive game script pretty much all all game, last game, and in most of Mark's big games too, So like that one. But don't forget about our guy e Xavier Hutchinson. He'll he'll probably ruin everything for us. Yeah, Joe, there you going Patriots and Texans.
00:12:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just gonna say that both hutch and Higgins.
00:12:43
Speaker 5: You know, price over plus three hundred right now, and if Collins isn't going to play, it's pretty wild prices for a wide receiver one and two. But I'm gonna go to the Patriots side. I'm gonna take Drake May for at any time touchdown. He's a round plus three thirty. He hasn't scored since Week fifteen. He ran for two touchdowns versus the Bills, was encouraging what we saw against the Chargers. Still used his legs to scramble finish with ten rushing attempts sixty six rushing yards. Now, he finished the season only four rushing touchdowns, but he's live to score in any given game because of his scrambler. He led all quarterbacks in total scrambles. He was second in the NFL and scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes and the Texans defense. There they can likely get pressure on the Patriots without blitzing. But May has actually had a decent scramble rate against teams that don't blitz, like the Chargers last week and who are bottom five and blitz rate. He scrambled five times in that game. So going through the matchups of the teams where he plays that they don't blitz and they get pressure, he tends to see a little bit more of a scramble rate. So for me, anything over three to one, I love the value for Drake May.
00:13:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, Drake May, He's gonna use his legs.
00:13:46
Speaker 1: I think regardless, guys are probably gonna be covered, So I would expect him to that scramble rate to increase here. But I'm gonna go with the Hunter Henry at plus two ten. If the Texans do give up a passing touchdown, I think, you know, giving it up to the tight end could be very likely here. You know, since Week thirteen, they've given up five touchdowns to tight ends. Tyler Warren got one McBride got a couple Bowers, Aronde, Gatston, so pretty much any you know, kind of upper tier tight end, which I think Henry is, you know, kind of one of the top targets on this team. Has gotten into the end zone against Houston, and that makes sense because it's very tough, you know, to score on their outside corners Lasseter and and Stingy, So Patriots receivers, you know, could.
00:14:31
Speaker 2: Be limited here.
00:14:32
Speaker 1: So yeah, expect some Drake may scrambling and uh expecting him to look for Hunter Henry in the red zone. Final game of the weekend Rams Bears Kerner, who we like here? I think I know where you're going. You talk about a guy you've given out a lot one more time, at least that one more time.
00:14:52
Speaker 4: Well yeah, I mean, if they make the Super Bowl, have you know, a couple more chances to give him out. But I'm going to go with Blake quorum here at plus two sixty five. And you know, I think in last week I was pretty curious to see how the Rams would kind of use their running back rootation, just considering Kora mixed in a lot more over the second half of the season, and there was this belief that it was, you know, to help lighten Kien Williams workload and keep him fresh for the playoffs. But you know, Korm was so good, and you know, by Kiren being somewhat limited, you know, he's been so efficient that they just kind of stuck with that approach in the wild card round against the Panthers. So I think we could expect Korn to continue to you know, play around thirty percent of the snaps and see you know, a decent amount of carries here.
00:15:35
Speaker 3: Because this is a game.
00:15:36
Speaker 4: I think they are going to lean on their backs a little bit more because Stafford's dealing with that finger injury on his you know, right index finger, and you know it's going to be freezing cold, so they might just want to lean on the run attack. This Bears run defense that just lost linebacker TJ. Edwards, who you know has only one mistackle on two hundred and thirty six two hundred and thirty eight run snaps. He's in the sixth loss rate among one hundred qualified linemackers. So and you know, both Rams running backs like to run up the middle, so I think this is a great matchup for them. Project him closer to plus two twenty. So I like the value we're getting at plus two sixty five.
00:16:15
Speaker 1: Yeah, with Edward's out of the line up five point seven yards per carry, a touchdown per game, a touchdown rate of three point eight percent, which is you know, one point two point seven percent with Edwards in. So that's a pretty big angry in terms of touchdown rate, uh for for backs and uh you know, I think I think that I think the Rams, Yeah, they're going to be super run heavy in the spot.
00:16:38
Speaker 2: Joe who like in Bears Rams.
00:16:42
Speaker 5: I'm running the bet the guy back that we both bet last week, man Dj Moore, he's around plus three twenty And Kerner, you surprised me. I thought you were going to take Luther Burden in this spot. But I guess Korham has the slight edge and your likability factor here. Yeah, but one of the reasons why I keep going back to More is I think they've kind of figured out that he is going to be running the wide receiver one routes. Regardless of you know, the emergence of Burdens, the key iss so Roma Dunes, they still kind of dealing with a bit of an injury and over the second half of the regular season, he was leaned on heavily, scoring six of his seven touchdowns. He's still getting, you know, wide receiver one routes and usage. It still ran the most routes of any wide receiver last week in the wildcard game, and they're facing a Rams defense that likes to play a lot of zone and limit's exposed to play is very similar to the Packers. And the other thing that I'm encouraged too is that they're really starting to use him out of the slot a little bit more. He was at a thirty four percent rate in the wildcard game. That's consistent of what we saw during the season when he was around thirty one percent. And we also just saw like a slot receiver like Jayalen Coker have a big game against this Rams defense last week, scored a touchdown, saw a career high in receiving yards. So I think DJ Moore is going to be relied on again. If you want to take Luther Burden at three to one, I will not knock that that's actually a pretty good price, But I'm going to go with DJ Moore at plus three twenty.
00:17:56
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a massive value again in my projection.
00:17:59
Speaker 1: I just don't understand why the market keeps, uh keeps underrating him.
00:18:03
Speaker 2: Mister Burton effect man talked him up too much.
00:18:07
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean Colson Loveland has just taken off.
00:18:12
Speaker 2: So yeah, that's why that's what I'm I thought about Burden.
00:18:18
Speaker 1: So so the thing I like Burden too, But I think Burden's a little riskier because there is a chance, you know, it's freezing cold, Bears may want to wean into their you know, two tight end sets even more. They've even been calling up a fourth tight end to play special teams Nicola Clinic. So like they they're they they they're gonna have reinforcements, uh at that position. So I think love Wind is kind of locked in, whereas Burden, his usage is a little shakier. So at two to one, I still show value on Burden. He's averaging over half an expected touchdown per game ever since that breakout game he had against the Bengals, uh mid season, and uh, he's become the number one target here And yeah, mentioned it rams struggle kind of interior wise, and it's it's this is just a guy that they're gonna be looking to in the red zone. We saw them get a matchup even on a two point conversion. They got a matchup where they came out heavy and then kind of spread everyone out, and Lovewood was on like a mindbacker, edge rusher or somebody somebody big, so like they can kind of dictate these things.
00:19:20
Speaker 2: So I love him to.
00:19:22
Speaker 1: Get in the end zone for the Bears. That wraps up the four games. But we're gonna do our favorite partway. We're gonna do our favorite touchdown bet each so that we can make a partway for the divisional round, and that is presented by drafting. So our favorite Divisional round anytime touchdown score, Kerner, start us off. Who you like best out of these four games to score a touchdown?
00:19:51
Speaker 4: Blake Korum at plus two sixty five. You know, still mixing in quite a bit and not opening round of the playoffs, and this is a game I think the Rams will lean on the run game a little bit more with Stafford dealing with that finger injury, with the freezing cold, and you know, Bears just lost top linebacker TJ.
00:20:09
Speaker 3: Edwards. So give me Korham at plus two sixty five.
00:20:13
Speaker 1: Joe, where are we going? Favorite anytime touchdown score for the Divisional round?
00:20:17
Speaker 5: Courtland Sutton gonna go with him. I feel like he's gonna see ten plus targets in this game. And again, I still think he's very matchup proof. Whether they're Broncos are maybe even leading by ten plus or trailing by ten plus, he's gonna get at least ten plus targets.
00:20:30
Speaker 1: It going with Coaston love Wind almost called him Courtland. I think who was somebody one of those announcers was calling Coaston love Wind Courtland love Wind. I think it was you. That was that herbstreak. Yeah, I think it was Herb Street and Michael's. They had the Prime it was the Prime.
00:20:50
Speaker 3: Game, right, Yeah, it was Herb.
00:20:52
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, he was.
00:20:53
Speaker 1: He kept saying Courtland Love and I'm like, oh man, but yeah, if you parway anytime touchdowns for Blake Korum, Courtland Sutton, and Colston Loveland thirty two to one at DraftKings, So Korum and Loveland would be kind of the same game. Well correlation there, because you know Korum can get one early and then the Bears, you know, get getting down and of course they'll go with They'll have to throw and somehow get back into the game as they do. But yeah, that's then you add Sutton in there and what I think would be a low scoring game. Believe that is a walk under for us here that that Bills and Broncos game. So all together, thirty two to one is pretty juicy. That's our anytime touchdown Parway for the Divisional Round presented by DraftKings. All right, we're gonna add We'll add our favorite Partway to the Parway Express account in the Action of our app, so you can follow that account to if you haven't already. That's where we post our longer shot bets and things like that. So have some fun with us. Follow that account if you're looking for those type of bets. And while you're looking at Parway Express, be sure to sign up up for Action Pro. It's the only way for you to get the best bets at the best prices with immediate notifications when Action experts track their picks, and these lines do move. Kerner and I mean we were just talking on a pot about it. I think it was Xavier Hutchinson at like thirty seven and a half and I'm looking down he's like at twenty nine and a half. I didn't even get to bet it yet, so I probably won't at this point. But yeah, these lines move even when we don't even when we don't bet him, so be sure to sign in for Action Pro to get those into notifications. You can also find quick slip links for the bets that we've made in this podcast in the podcast description, or you can go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet Now. That'll do it for our divisional round touchdown show presented by DraftKings. Many thanks to Sean Kerder and Jill Glant for joining me. If you haven't yet, you can check out our new AI Quick Flip Bot playbook on X Just tag at playbook. Also, you can find Kerner on X at the Underscore Odds Maker and Jill at G Doug five thousand g e a w G five zero zero zero. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on the free award winning Action Network app.
00:23:08
Speaker 2: So next week, let's get this money
