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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game.
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Speaker 2: Do us proud? Right enough?
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Speaker 3: They're running a game so smooth, so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution. This, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts, four thousand percent of the time.
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Speaker 2: How shut with.
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Speaker 3: That shop with mind and buddy, and that's.
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Speaker 2: Why you see your beautiful Tis. Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody pics them.
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Speaker 4: Shut a.
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Speaker 3: W It's left on the wide eyed drill diffuge, How Old Earth picked up happens?
00:00:51
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by Hard Rock Bets Sportsbook. This is our continued World Cup coverage. We had four mattress discuss here in the quarterfinals. But before we do, Sam, I'd like to discuss one of your bets that cashed in the last episode. You hit MESSI to score in Argentina to win. That was a no doubter at no point. I imagine that you were sweating that you're just spending the money in the second half because it was so clear that it was a winner. What was your thoughts on that? After really Argentina came out flat the first seventy eight minutes Egypt dominated that match, and then for them to flip the switch and to play at such a dominating pace in the final, you know, twenty minutes fifteen minutes of that match. It was incredible to watch. But also it has to be a little bit worrying for the Argentinians because you can't just do that in a knockout you know stage, continually and not get yourself burned.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, no doubts that Messi Argentina whim was was going to be a winner. I was sweating on that one a little bit, but yeah, I know, you're absolutely right. I actually watched the game with my friend, my only Argentinian friend on so it was in rest in spectacle for me. But if they continue that in the knockout stages, they might be okay against Switzerland, they might be able to have a bit of an off day. But once they play against you know, the bigger nations, if they reach France or Spain in the final, or England in the Semis, all Norway and they play like that, they're gonna it's going to end in tears. I think I thought they were pretty average. Obviously, the early egypt go I think it was after fifteen sixteen minutes and then for them to score again, obviously that the game state then means Argentina have to push and press forward and therefore the stats, the XG, everything was heavily in argentineer's favor and so it should have been. So they created a number of high quality chances because of that. But on the whole, I'm yeah, I'm not convinced about them at all. Me and Daniellie actually picked them out on our World Cup Future Parts as the one favorite in that rung of teams and to win the tournament, it's maybe one that you shouldn't be back in the market. And I think I think that's come into fruition. There's there's a number of players there that it's basically the same squad, the same start at eleven that they had in guitar four years ago, Bardi, Maria, maybe one or two others, and it looks like that as well. Obviously four years older, looks a bit slower, they look looked a little bit leggy, and this is against an egypt squad who you know, it's that they're not the best. Obviously, they've got a few players with individual quality. I thought the right winger. Egypt's right winger was brilliant. I forgot his name, the guy on the right. But yeah, it will be a concern. It will be a concern if they if like I said, if they meet one of the big boys, they might be in for a bit of trouble.
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Speaker 1: Danielle, do you share that sentiment that even though they may have come out and advanced, it's still is viewed as a warning sign moving forward.
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Speaker 4: Look, he's a warning sign, but the World Cup is not a league like the Premier League. If the Word Cup was the league, I wouldn't put Argentina in the top three because I don't think they got enough consistency to be better than other three or four nations. But it's only a month, and in a month, form momentum, mental strength, coision, team spirit count for a lot, and this Argentina side has got all those elements. I totally agree with Sam. The squad is old, is aging. There is a debate going on in Argentina. Why are the younger players not coming true? Why does this team look like MESSI is amigos? Because it's exactly how Messy wants that to be. He wants to be surrounded by players they like him, they play for him, that are very street wise and basically have him as the head and not exactly what Leonards colony has done. However, do not underestimate the fact that is a team that didn't surrender, is a team that so the end, really saw the exit door and still went for it and managed to pull through an historic comeback. They never won a game at the World Cup by being two goals behind and they manage to do it. Are their favorites to win the World Cup?
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Speaker 2: No, they aren't.
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Speaker 4: Are they favorites against Switzerland massively? They are massively favorites against Switzerland because in three four days times there is no substitute for adrenaline and for joy and for being able to turn games around and ultimately having the best player in the world on your side. This World Cup tactically hasn't really told us much. Teams haven't really been experimental because this is how international football is. They haven't got time to practice the tactics as much as clubs. Therefore, big players make the difference that we've seen it and when you can play to the strength of the best player ever that there is does ever played in modern football. Obviously, he's gonna carry carry forward. But yeah, for the progression of the tournament, which is only could be only a couple of games away. Of course, then is down to Scaloni maybe to make some adjustments. Bring back Ottamendi in the center, back, bring back Almada tried to give a little bit more with but yeah, let's take it one day, one day at the time.
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Speaker 1: First, from the best player in the world to the best team in the world, let's get this started. Discussing the French national team they're taking on Morocco. There minus one eighty two win in regular time plus injury time, Morocco plus five point fifty to win in that window to draw price at just shy of three to one to advance France minus three ninety and Morocco plus two ninety five. This match we played in Foxborough up in New England's France is rolling the other way to put it fourteen to two goal differential, zero goals conceded in either knockout game and Boppe Tambala Olese all finding the net, you know during this stretch, and Morocco has already proven twenty twenty two wasn't a fluke. Still, I think this market is indicating another plus five fifty to win out right is a big ask against this version of blue. So let me start with a simple question, what kind of match does Morocco need to shock the world? How go to you first?
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Speaker 4: On la They do need to apply the same low block at times and conscious that Paraguay applied, but without the street fight and without the aggressivity. However, the thing they will require a little bit of that in order to stop France. And going back to the round of sixteen games against Paraguay, it has done France a hell of a good because winning that game without capitulating, without falling apart, without letting it go to the Aesteria has really helped France, I think, to gel and to strengthen even more. In a World Cup that is eight games long, potentially there's always going to be a sticky game, and that was the sticky game for France. Again is an opposition that, by the way, Paraguay did nothing different from what we see in Coppa Libertadores or South American football. As in Europe, Mike, we are used to, well, we are used to teams playing expansively, perhaps being too nice to referee, showing a lot of cards. That was a throwback to thirty years ago or to the Coppa Libertadores that people in South America watch.
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Speaker 2: We can wake out. So what does Morocca have to do to answer your question, Well.
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Speaker 4: They need to They will have to defend, they will have to undergo spells of games where they're gonna be civil and the pressure. But they do have the quality to impose themselves in the opposition half, so they don't have to necessarily leave the ball to France as Paraguay I did because they didn't have the technical skills to do it, and I do believe these France still has some mistakes in them at at the back.
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Speaker 2: Morocco need to be courageous.
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Speaker 1: What's your play for this one?
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Speaker 2: Technitally, but for me it's a Morocco to score.
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Speaker 4: So Morocco over zero point five goals under zero point five goals in the first ten minutes, so let me pick it first ten minutes Neil Neil basically and Morocco to score one goal a list in the match plus one O five double's your stake. Let's start with the first ten minutes. This is in Fox Bros. You remember, as you mentioned four PM kickoff no air conditioning. I think this is going to play a part. By the way, three out of the four quarter finals are playing in games in stadiums with no air conditioning. Perhaps Fadig mikey k in a little bit, I think this is probably a factor. The teams are not necessarily going to go gang.
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Speaker 2: Ho and early goals.
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Speaker 4: We haven't seen many early goals in France and Morocco games, only two inside of their ten games at the World Cup. So they do start fast, but not that fast. Now this bat and this pick, it's all about Morocco scoring.
00:09:54
Speaker 2: In the last two.
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Speaker 4: World Cups, in the last eight quarter finals, only three teams have not scored or in the quarterfinals Portugal against Morocco when Morocco in twenty twenty two were playing very low block, and then Uruguay and Sweden against France and England in twenty eighteen. So normally team who will get to the top eight of the world can score a goal against anyone. So I do believe that there is a goal in both sides for sure. Morocco have shown against Canada that they have got different game plans as well, even when they are under the cosh, because they were under the cosh in the first half against Senega. Against Canada, they didn't crumble and then they scored with the two goals with the first three shots on target shots from distance as well, So they can change and adapt the game. Of course, the concern is that they're going to be with Asaibari because probably is Injean he's going to miss that. But I think here again, if they do play with courage, they can score against a front side which is kept back to backling shit. But if you look at the XG number, they should have conceided one point sixty eight goals. More of course, the fact that Mike might and save the penalty against Norway counts towards that.
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Speaker 2: In extremely good for both teams.
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Speaker 4: Marocco Beaten in thirty four, which is the second longest triak in international football behind Spain. Now when you look at this longest triak, often there are a lot of drows in there only eight drows. So Morocco have won most of those games, scoring in the last eleven. And when I talk about France, the vulnerability could be and the full back carriers ding kunde and they're going to get exposed. Perhaps yes, against Akimi the best full backs at this World Cup. I think Dio to Pamechano plays for Bayern, has got a mistake on him, hasn't made anyone so far in this World Cup. But you know some we watch him every week and the Champions League, he has got a little mistake in it and maybe this is the game where he gets triggered. And just finally, the odds for France at the longest in the tournament. He's never been pressed prized so high in this tournament. But they're very similar. Actually they're identical to when they beat Senegal three to one in match they won. Now if you remember that game, first off, Senegal got the better side and Senegal are on par with Morocco in terms of quality. You know they played the offcome final this year, they were very, very level in the second half. France turned up, they scored, they conceded, they should have conceider perhaps another goal. And when you look at the odds for Morocco, they never lost by more than two goals margin since losing to France in twenty twenty two in the World Cup semi finals. Since then, they never lost by more than two goal margin. The ession anti gap is minus one, by the way, which I think is a leader bit risky. And back then in the twenty twenty two semi final defeat, they were at the identical odds to now plus seven fifty for the win. I think since then they move up a long long way, so I think this minus one anticap it is risky. So for me, it's Morocco over zero point five goals and under zero point five goals in the first ten minutes to double restake.
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Speaker 1: Now. Sam Danielle gave us a comprehensive coverage of the match end to end. He did mention the weather though it's going to be in the mid to upper eighties, there's going to be a little bit of a breeze. Do you think fatigue plays it all into this and have you crafted a play that kind of considers that angle?
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Speaker 5: Yeah, it does consider that angle when you've got twenty two players playing in real heat, no air com maybe you know, definitely the France squad, a lot of the Morocco squad playing in Europe as well, like they're not used to playing at these in this kind of climate, at these kind of temperatures week in, week out, So it will probably have an impact. I'm hoping it will limit the number of goals. I've gone for France win and under five match goals, and you can get that at minus one two five. I think that's a pretty good way into the game. Like Danielle said, maybe the minus one Asian handicap for Francis is a little bit dodgy in terms of are they going to win by a two go margin? Maybe, but I think this might be a little bit safer. And the first of all, that Paraguay France game, I have never seen anything like it in terms of like Paraguay not receiving a single yellow card and not not one yellow card and they spend ninety minutes just trying to kick him up in the air. I just thought that was crazy. There was there was two players, the guy with the long air and center mid and my god, pretty much committing GBH for most of the game and not a single yellow card. So that was that was interesting, and it was a really tricky test for France with Paraguay presenting a different kind of challenge for France that they faced previously and recently in the vocal qualifiers that they'd have had nothing like that. The intent from Paraguay was clear unsettled France, be overly physical, bring them down to their level, make it a scrappy game, try and make that a leveler. But France showed like Danielly said, they they could not only use attractive free flow in football as we've seen in the tournament so far, but they can also emerge victorious in what was a greaty, full blooded affair when it really mattered, and that one they'll win over Paraguay was the only game which France failed to score a minimum of three goals. Paraguay sat in that low compact block. No other team at the twenty twenty six World Cup has limited France in forward areas as much as Paraguay. They conceded only one point four to five XJ in that ninety minute period, so perhaps that approach does offer a blueprint towards success as we've spoken about, although that did come out a cost for Paraguay because they only generated zero point one three x G and forward areas. So the task ahead for Morocco it needs the balance that attack and output with limiting France's opportunities in attack, and that is a conundrum that no team has really mastered against France at the World Cup so far, and so I expect Morocco to try and frustrate France for periods as Paraguay did, and then look to hit them on the counter and in transition when and if the opportunity arises that they cannot really afford to go toe to toe with France, I don't think because it will probably end in tears. But for Morocco, we saw against Canada which they won three nil, but it wasn't really a free nil game. It didn't really feel like a free nil game. The final score I made it look a little bit more comfortable than it was for Morocco. We saw Morocco under the cosh a bit, especially in the opening stages of the first half. I thought Morocco looked a little bit leggy at times alongside a Canada team which was high energy and snapping into duels. And not only that Dannelly mentioned it, but Sibari, the Morocco striker, was sub during that game and he has missed all of the training sessions leading up to this France quarter final at the time of speaking, so I don't think he'll be fit enough to play, which I think might be a significant loss, and we spoke about it with Bulligan in the last podcast. In a quarter final match where you need your big strikers, when you need your main man up top, someone capable of putting it in the net when you're probably not going to get too many chances, when you've not got him around, that is a significant loss. Rahimi looks like you'll probably replace him. He come on against Canada, got a goal, hit the bar overheader, so he'll likely keep his place. And he actually played pretty well. But he's not Sidebari. He's been playing in the United Arab Emirates for maybe five six years. I don't know too much about him. He look good, but still I think that might limit Morocco in the final third, which hopefully should aid the under five match go selection. In defense, Morocco of average zero point eight two expect it goes against. So far in this competition, they've conceded four goals in five games, so whilst we don't expect Morocco to keep a clean sheet, the likelihood is that they probably won't be as easy to breachers. Maybe Sweden three nail in the group stages. A rotated Norway team for one the group stage, so Yeah, despite France's free score in nature. You know, we've spoken about their attack many times. I think France to win on the five match goes gives us a little bit of leeway. We can get a free one France win on our side to to France win free now France four, no France. There's a lot of school lines there with that selection. So at minus one two five, yeah, I think it looks pretty good.
00:18:21
Speaker 1: Back gentlemen, we're in the double digits here in episodes for the World Cup, yet you're still bringing new phrases and acronyms to the show. So I think we need a graphic or a chiron on the bottom for GBH grievous bodily harm for those who are not in the know. Yeah, I agree. It was incredible that they did not get carded at any point. They were bringing the fight quite literally to the French the entire match, so it was kind of it was kind of wild to see. Speaking of people that aren't necessarily tuned in to soccer, my friends who hate soccer, they like to say, if they wanted to watch gen Z Dude struggle to score for ninety minutes, they just go people watching at the bar, but this year I got them an Action Pro description and now they love the World Cup. We have money line over under spread and player prop projections like Anytime Goalscorers for Action Pro users all throughout the World Cup. Starting now, new users can get three months of Action Pro for the price of two months. So go to Actionnework dot com slash Pro to get in on this offer now to become the smartest, better you can be. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, hard rock Bet sportsbook. The hard Rock Bet Party is on and your name is on the guest list. Hard Rock Bet is a top rated sportsbook app that's built for those of us who know betting. You know all the others. Now give hard Rock Bet a try. Make your first bet on hard rock Bet today and score one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and if it hits, not only do you get your winnings, but you also get an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Hard Rock Bet will be a major partner of what we're doing here throughout the summer with the show we'll be using their lines, odds, and data when talking about the biggest stories in this tournament. Sign up for hard Rock Bet Today Role with Us offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In the state of Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In all other states. Must be twenty one plus and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned with gambling in Florida, call one eight three three play wise. In Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and nine with it. In Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call one eight hundred MI Reset gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and Tennessee. Friday, July tenth at SOFI Stadium in Inglewood, California, Spain, Belgium. The Spanish side minus one sixty five to advance in regular time Belgium plus four fifty. The draw priced out at just shy of three to one to advance, though it gets even steeper Spain minus three to forty Belgium plus two sixty Spain. We kind of alluded to it earlier. They are currently on a thirty five game unbeaten streak and all competitions twenty six wins, nine draws, which is tied for the nation's longest run. Spain also became the first team in history to have six consecutive clean sheets at the FIFA World Cup, five games here in twenty twenty six and one in the knockout stage back in twenty twenty two. Belgium has a lot to be proud of in their own right. Unbeaten in eighteen straight and they just hung four on the co host United States. Really a dominating performance from the Red Devils, and that's what we were waiting to see and hoping that Belgium could elevate themselves and prove that they were a top ten team in the world, and they did. But this one really comes down to a possession verse counter clash and Belgium at plus five hundred, I would argue, or at least, you know, even nine to two plus four fifty offers some value if you can slow Yamal and Pedrie down in the midfield. A tall task though, so I'll start with Sam on this one. You like the Spanish side, but you're getting into a specific market. Walk us through it.
00:21:52
Speaker 5: Yeah, Mike, that is a big if. Obviously stopping Yamao, Pedrie and midfield Wildery in the hartfield, expying her on the left as well for Athletic Madrid, He's had a really good tournament, So it is a big if in terms of Belgium progressing and stop in Spain. The thing is with Belgium for me, they've they've largely underwhelmed. They played well against USA, but they were dreadful against Senegal. Senegal deserves to win that round of thirty two fixture. Belgium weren't great in the group stages either. Obviously did enough to progress, but just because they you know, put four past the USA played well, played better, I don't think we should maybe just come to the conclusion that now they're going to turn up against Spain and put in a really good show in I've still got my question marks around Belgium, still not too sure if they can really cut it against the likes of Spain, And if you look at Spain, they didn't allow a single shot on target against Austria in the round of thirty two, and they followed up that with their fifth cleen Heit of the tournament against Portrait and they considered just zero point sixty three xga against Portugal. No other nation have ever recorded six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, with five coming in this tournament. Like you mentioned the fact that Spain's opponents are struggling to regain possession and course issues. In that Spanish defensive thirty, it's a very good signal as they progress through this tournament. They've allowed just one point four nine xga in their opening five games, averaging zero point three expect it goes against per ninety, which is the lowest of any team in the tournament. And that zero point three zero expect it goes against per ninety is a remarkable level of defensive output from Spain. If they continue that against Belgium, it's more than likely that Spain will outscoore Belgium in their quarter final game and ultimately reach the semi final. Portugal recorded just two shots and tired it in that ninety minutes last time out. As I mentioned, Austria before, didn't record one Spain have averaged one point zero shots against ninety the entire tournament, so defensively pretty impressive. I think how this game might look, or how Belgium might want it to look, is I think Rudy Garcia's team. I think they'll want this to be a shootout if they can possibly make it one. I think that they might feel that they'll be able to edge a shoot out against Spain. All of Belgium's notable victories under Rudy Garcia have been just that, the two against Whales in qualifying four two and four three, against Senegal three two, and then obviously for one against USA, which might not really been a shootout being a high score and win. But I'm not really sure if Belgium are good enough to do that against Spain, and I don't think Spain will allow that kind of game to transpire. Belgium were underwhelming in the group stage and like I said, really really didn't impress me in the knockoutside just so far by that USAA game. For me, just Spain are the much better collective. They've got players who can really hurt Belgium, and for all of those regions reasons all right alongside Belgium being not overly convincing. I think I'm just going to take Spain. They're a little bit short in the one x two market. On the Asian handicap minus zero point seventy five, you can get a price near even. So this handicap needs Spain to win by a two go margin to return full profits. If they win by one go margin in nineteen minutes, you'll get half profits. So I think that's good enough. I've not got the price that I might. I think it's I've lost it minus one twenty minus one two five. Maybe, yeah, that's good enough for me.
00:25:34
Speaker 1: I think Danielle the stink that was put on this Belgium side with the nil nil draw against Iran, I think that's where everybody got off the bandwagon. They said that there's something wrong with this attack, that they'll be lucky to win a single match in the knockout. Then they beat Senegal and they just take it to the Americans in it just a dominant fashion. Has that changed your version or vision of this Belgian team, because honestly, the way that it's priced here, it seems like a fatal complete that the Spanish are going to advance now. You have them to advance, but you are attacking on both teams to score. So perhaps you're kind of sputting the decision here, saying that you've seen enough that Belgium seems to have a little bit of fight in them, and you think you're going to find the back of the net.
00:26:17
Speaker 4: Yes, because I think whereas Pain are overwhelm on me favorites and I think the will advance and this is the end for Belgium. Oh, by the way, have had a very kind path to the quarterfinals. I mean they've also scored five against New Zealand. I don't totally buy into the fact that Spain I'm going to keep six consecutively sheets, seven consecutively sheets going into a World Cup semi final or final. I think eventually this resistance is going to give in. But they were quite impressive defensively against Portugal, basically because they have the ball so long for the game that the other teams cannot have it, although Portugal did have a few good chances towards the end. And again I do think that all these top eight teams all have mistakes in them at the back, and we still haven't seen a mistake from the Spanish backline.
00:27:08
Speaker 2: I think he might criep in.
00:27:10
Speaker 4: But my point here it's first of all, I want to praise Belgium and Rudy Garcia for being able to make the tough calls.
00:27:17
Speaker 2: During this tournament.
00:27:19
Speaker 4: We've seen very few managers changing information and changing the personnel so much as Rudy Garcia has done. But he understood the Lucaku is much better off the bench, that the Bruyne is better to be left out, that the look back you can be the man to unlock defenses running behind. He even left out Docu in the game against the US and then brought him into the seven half. So he has changed quite a lot, and I think that it is a quality in a manager.
00:27:48
Speaker 1: Now.
00:27:49
Speaker 4: Of course, they come here Belgium with no pressure whatsoever, because if they go back home and they get eliminated by Pain, everyone will say, Okay, that's fine, that's a decent tournament for US, top eight in the world. What more can you want with a fading Golden generation, I think we can call it golden generation anymore. The biggest sue for Belgium is that in order to qualify Spain again you need to defend for spells of the game for thirty forty minutes and we stand pressure. They simply don't have the defenders to do that. And also they're gonna miss Amaduanana due to injuries, who's so important in midfield, so physical, So I think they're probably gonna miss the most important midfielder.
00:28:28
Speaker 2: Of the lot.
00:28:29
Speaker 4: And to just to frame how unfancied Belgium are by bookmakers, they aren't beaten in nineteen games Belgium including friendlies.
00:28:41
Speaker 2: Now.
00:28:42
Speaker 4: Back in twenty fourteen, twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, when they were even top of the fifth ranking, they went to twenty four games unbeaten. Now the odds for them to win are the longest for Belgium since October twenty eleven. Basically we need to go back almost to the beginning of the Golden Era to find similar odds for Belgium as long, which tells you that this Belgian side, despite such a long and beaten streak, are perceived to be much much weaker than ever that they've been in the past thirteen years. And they played a lot of top games in those fifteen years accounting, So yeah, they are unfancied for a reason. Yeah, it's a tough assignment. Look for Belgium Spain, as we said and bidden in thirty five. They only failed to score in three of these games. Serbia Egypt was a friendly in Capo Verdi, which I do think again was a statistical anomally. Normally every other time they play this game, they score. The concern is that Yamal is not at its best yet and maybe he might not have a be at this tournament. But I do think Spain to qualify both team to score, yes, plus one hundred and forty. I know it's risky, I think that there is the chance for Spain to win the game within ninety minutes, maybe in a high scoring game.
00:30:06
Speaker 1: We turned to Saturday, July eleventh for a double header and that's going to close out to our quarterfinal matches. We're going to start in Miami with Norway and England. Norway plus three ten to advance in regular time and injury time, England minus one fifteen in that window, plus two to seventy on the draw to advance, Norway plus one to eighty the English side minus two twenty five. First ever World Cup quarterfinal for Norway. Holland has been the story just scoring at will scored two against Brazil that was enough to knock them out. England ground out a three to two win over Mexico at the Esteca and really kind of showed their metal because having to do so with just ten on the pitch and the Mexican side just feverishly trying to equalize there, it was an opportunity to escape and not just a feeling of we were lucky to get out of there. That really, I think kind of changes the overall narrative for this English side. And Sam, I want to go to you first, because it's never part of the DNA of English soccer fans to look beyond and to start to dream of what it would be like to be in a final or to win the World Cup. But are we inching closer to that optimism starting to creep in a little bit, particularly when you see this path. I know that Holland has been an absolute world beater and he's terrifying, but in terms of their overall quality, you have to be happy with this quarterfinal matchup.
00:31:25
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think England has to be happy with it. I think as football fans it would be I think you have to let yourself dream a little bit there would be a lot of the of the nation kind of looking ahead, looking at maybe Argentina Switzerland, and after the Argentina performance probably thinking, you know what, you know, if you get past Norway, it's got a really good chance of getting into the final. And then when you're in the final, it's ninety minutes on hundred and twenty minutes and any team can win. So yeah, allowing myself to dream a little bit, but look, this is not a fight forward task Norway. They've shown that they're a good team. They can score plenty of goals against some, you know, really top level nations. I think it's always probably obvious to say, but I think where this game will be one or lost for England is simply whether they can stop Earlin Harland or not, and whether they can stop the service that comes to him from the likes of Marinoda guard as a collective quite clearly, I think most people will agree that England are the better team. They are odds on favorites here for a reason. But yeah, for me and likely for many others, to keep battle on this pitch. From an England perspective, it's those two central defenders, first, Earling Harland for Brazil, Markinos and Gabrielle lost that battle last time out. Itally couldn't contain him. Sorry to bring it up home and away and qualifiers. I could list twenty to thirty Premier League teams that have failed, alongside plenty of teams across Europe in the Champions League, in the Bundesliga that have also failed. So limiting Arlin Harland in the final third, it is much as this said than done. It's probably the most difficult assignment you could give to a central defender. And this got to be honest. This is not a vintage England back line. It's just not. I like Mark Gayhey, I like Ezri Conza. I've always been a big fan of John Stones, but I'm not sure they're going to stop him. And interestingly, I know Stones is left Manchester City now, but Mark Gaihey and John Stones they've been Manchester well Stones especially he's been a Manchester City teammate for Harland for a number of years. Gayhee obviously moved to City in January, so they are going to be used to him. They're probably thrilled that they don't have to face and week in week out now in the Premier League. Mark Gayhey obviously did for Palace, so that's going to be an interesting battle. But I think that that probably leads me to believe in that England might have to outscore Norway in this game. If we believe that Harland is probably going to get some chances, likely going to score and this this might not be a one new England win. So if that is the case, and England are pushing forward for goals, and if they're buoyed by that performance performance last time out that we think they probably will be, then I expect Harry Kane to score. And I know I put it up on the last pod, Harry Kane any anytime go score a But I think I'm going to do it again. We've got a bit of a shorter price, got minus one eleven. But I think there's a bit of value in that. Like we said, like the big boys keep scoring, their teams keep winning, so you know, why not keep keep backing it. And if you look at Norway defensively, they've allowed eight point zero seven expected those against in their five World Cup matches. No other nation still involved in this tournament has conceded more in that metric than Norway and Additionally, the seventy three shots faced after five games, which is fourteen point three zero shots conceded per ninety on average, is also more than any side remaining in the tournament. So if this level of defensive output continues for Norway against a world class striker like Harry Kane a world class front line like England possesses, then you would imagine opportunities will follow and they will likely present themselves to Harry Kane. And if that does transpire, then Harry Kane will probably score scored a penalty last time out at the Azteca, and that is obviously a huge plus for any potential anytime go score a selection, if you've got a striker on penalties, then there's always a chance for your bet to win from twelve yards, which is really handy and probably an overlooked angle of at any time goal score a bet. So yeah, I'm not going to repeat myself by going into Hurry Kane analyzing this game and what he's about, So instead this time ound and I've got his Bayern Munich numbers in front of me from this season and to show what kind of form he's been in recently started twenty five games in the Bundesliga, appeared in thirty one matches, scored thirty six goals. He scored fourteen goals in thirteen appearances in Sampions League, scored tangos and six the FB Pokau appearances in Germany, which is like they're at domestic cup and now six goes in England's five games at the World Cup. So minus one one one to score any time against a team who England thought are John favorites against. Like I said, big players keeps going, goes that teams keep winning, So I'm minus one one one on Mappy to take that on.
00:36:24
Speaker 1: I think Danielle, I think you're going to side kind of with the overall narrative, which is the English side probably needs to outscore Norway. You can do everything that you want strategically, you can throw bodies at Alan, but he's probably going to find the back of the net at least once. And the way you're taking advantage of that, you're going to say both teams to score, Yes, at minus one thirty three. In addition to that, do you think there's an exact score market if you had to throw out a prediction and I can look up that the latest odds as you give it here live, that you think would be a reasonable projection about where this game ends.
00:37:00
Speaker 4: Well, it's hard to say, because the best Inland games so at this World Cup I've been all I scoring for two against Croatia, three two against Mexico. The four to two against Creatia remains the better game. The poorest game have been the lowest scoring one, of course, and the saying goes well as for no Way. All the games have been high scoring, so it's very hard to pin down an exact score. It would probably I would probably tend to say two to one either way, but that is probably the cautious approach. Do you agree with some this is not a nil nil, This is not a one nil. England will need to outscore Norway, but list scoring two or three if they want to qualify within ninety minutes. What I find in particularly strange is the fact that the odds for England to win in ninety minutes are shorter here in the quarterfinals than what they were when they faced Mexic on the round of sixteen, which told me two things. Really, the book makers overestimated the altitude and the challenge of Mexico.
00:37:59
Speaker 2: Poe used perhaps in England there was a little bit.
00:38:03
Speaker 4: Of hysteria around all these adversities that England had to face, but we are used to that, after all, we are used to that kind of mindset. But I differ on paper, England look much much They were much better the Mexico.
00:38:21
Speaker 2: The Indian looked better and.
00:38:23
Speaker 4: They got the game planned down to a tee, which was probably what Thomas Tukel was waiting for and have prepared for the entire tournament. The game plan was let Mexico attack, let Mexico have the ball, let them towns that does, and then we hit in the counter, which is exactly what England know how to do it extremely well, and they've done it through the qualifiers. England struggles against low blocks, medium blocks, but they're little. In transition, they are the prototype of a premier league team, probably a Premier League team that would not win the Premier League, premier team that will be extremely competitive because we got all those kinds of facets, including being very good as the pieces as well. Against against Norway, I think this game plan is gonna be the same. But normally Norway I think they're gonna be smartyr in this case they're probably not gonna go all out at England as Mexico did, but they would try to pick the moments as well. Against Brazil, Norway almost should themselves in the foot by having too much possession in the first half and being sterile and basically picking up the wrong formation. We saw a lot to deployed on the right wing. Then in the second half when they changed it with Oscar Bob, a slider loop who delivered more crosses and made the pitch wider, that's when really hurt Brazil because of course they could feed aland more dangerous balls and we saw the results. So yeah, the key for England to win this one is to deal with Island Stones and Gay will have to do with him. Dealing with with as well. In midfield is gonna be a battle. England is gonna hit on the counter. But if you look at the the weak spot of Norway, it's clearly that defense. It's clearly the back line is clearly the full backs. Where I think England wingers, which gonna be Gordon and Saga, I'm not gonna be any more changes from there can find joy in transition. Look, I think there's gonna be a high temple game, there is a bass, but there's a huge contingent of Norwegian players who play in England, so they're gonna be used to that. And yeah, maybe the start might be slow. They're playing Miami five pm in the afternoon, nowhere conditioning here. Again, that could be a factor. Let's see how much it affects England coming back to Mexico City. But I think yeah, with with the with the with two top those scorers in such a good form and all the attacking players in good form, both team to score for me, looks the most obvious player minus one then thirty three.
00:41:06
Speaker 5: What I will say is that the first goal might be pretty important. If England scores and then Norway obviously have to get on the ball and make something happen and push forward, then that might only be Norway's undoing. If Norway can get a goal and then obviously then they'll be They'll be kind of allowed for the midfield to sit back a bit, protect that back line and then use Horland on the counter and force England to maybe try and unpick a little block. If that transpires, then then it might be it might it might prove pretty difficult for England. So so that that first goal might be crucial. It might not be. They might score and then it might turn into a real shoe out, but it might be important.
00:41:50
Speaker 4: I think the longer the game goes and the longer England goes at it, I think eventually they will find the goal. I mean, we they do struggle against a low block, but Congo defended for their life. In the end they capitulated. Panama defended for a long spells and in the end they copedulated. I think England a goal, many many weapons, even if it's from a set piece or from a codified action. I think they do have. I mean, I don't see this Norway side keeping a clean sheet against anyone. I mean no clean one clean shit in the last ten really. But that's not that's not the strength, that's not the type of football they play. And I mean they dominated the possession against Brazil, which tells you a lot how football has changed. Watching that game, you almost feel football of the nineteenth century. It's gone ten to fifteen years ago. You never thought Noway are going to have the ball more than Brazil, and in the end they had it. But equally, you can't imagine nowhere keeping a.
00:42:50
Speaker 1: Clean shit here, Anthoniel, it to your prediction on two to one. If it's two to one England in regular time, that is a seven to one payout. If it's two to one Norway and at your time at twelve to one payoffs. So it's just somebody to consider, all right. We close out the quarterfinals in Kansas City, Missouri, Argentina returning. They've actually played their first match of the group stage there in case they're taking on Switzerland here though the Swiss plus four to fifty two advanced in regular time, Argentina minus one forty the draw plus two to fifty five to advance, Argentina just about minus three hundred, the Swiss plus two thirty, and as we've already discussed, they survived with an all timeer comeback, the Argentinians coming back from a two to zero deficit in the seventy eighth minute three unanswered goals to escape. You can argue whether that's a warning sign, whether the defense has cracks, or proof of the championship medal and pedigree. Messi Martinez closing things out. The Swiss by the way, they ground pass Columbia on penalties, and I'm kicking myself because I mentioned it in the show. It was plus seven to fifty for either side to win via pks. Of course they took Columbia plus seven to fifty. Did not sprinkle on both sides of that. The Swiss have to be three. I mean, talk about being happy to be here. They're also in probably the softest of the remaining for you know, favorites that they have to face, so the most ideal kind of you know path for them to continue this this dream run. I understand that Argentina is the defending World Cup champions, but they can't be coming in with a ton of confidence and they're not going to overlook the Swiss after what just happened to them against the Egyptians. With that being said, Sam, you're looking past, you know, an outright on either side here and you're going with a tried and true Let me see if I can pronounce this guy's name right, Lionel Messi. I haven't heard of this guy. Is he going to score again?
00:44:35
Speaker 4: Is this just like this.
00:44:37
Speaker 1: Seems improbable knowing that he's the goat, knowing that he's basically putting the team on his back, and no one can you know, drape two or three defenders around him for the majority of the match and prevent him from getting a good look. So you think it's just you know, it's going to come down to how many shots he gets on goal because he's an absolute sniper, and when he does get that opportunity, he's going to in the back of the net.
00:45:02
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's pretty good this Lionel Messi isn't He keeps scoring goals. I think it's nine consecutive World Cup matches that he's scored in and the bookmakers have given us a minus one on one price on him to score at any time. I just have to take it. I think at this stage it just makes complete sense.
00:45:20
Speaker 4: And so long as it's not penalties album, as long as it doesn't take.
00:45:25
Speaker 5: This thing, Oh my goodness, I can how can a player be so good but so poor penalties?
00:45:36
Speaker 4: Eight World Cup penalties?
00:45:39
Speaker 5: He's not great. My friend I was watching the game of last night. He said, it's like a top mitchellin star Chef. He's got a range of restaurants. Not being able to make a ham sandwich unless he not being able to score. Was pretty funny. But Argentina in general, I'm really I'm really not hot on them at all. It's so far, so good. They're in the Court of Final, We've had two matches, there were the knockout stages against two nations. You'd expect them to beat relatively comfortably and they haven't been able to do so. So I'm still not sold on them. Despite sorry being defending champions. This is a squad that's four years older, like I said earlier in the show, from the latest triumph and going off the eye test, I think that's talent. Of course, a lot of the play goes through Lion or Messi, and that will always be both effective and pretty dangerous for any other any opponent. But when you've got Rodrigo DePaul shoehorned into what is effectively a right midfield role, when you've got Tagliafico, I think he's might maybe thirty three, going up and down the left flank, leaving space in behind. I think I think he's probably pasted it a little bit, reaching the twilight of his career, and you've got paraders in front of the base midfield in front of the defenders who's also in his mid thirties. I think I just it's just not a team that really I'm just not massively confident with them, not really not enough to back them here and put more money behind them. They do. However, if you're looking at the data, they do have the second best underlying defensive process of all teams remaining in the tournament, just two point nine eight x G in five games, which is pretty decent. But the question that you have to ask when looking at stuff like this is who have they really played or what attacks have they really faced that of that have really put them under too much pressure. Egypt did pretty well of that last night, and they scored twice. They were a shirt pull away from that being three goals. Obviously it might not you know, ended up that way, but yeah, Egypt look pretty comfortable going forward and got behind them a fair few times, so that that has to be a concern. This is not a defense that's watertight, even if the data suggests so. And just all in all, really for Argentine, I'm a little bit concerned when they'll have to face if they face the likes of Sakka, the Tagliafico Gordon on the porch side, guessing scalodly might change it around for that and to avoid those kind of one v one examples. But in Switzerland vargas Andi Manzambi if he can play here, I know he missed the last game against Colombia. I think they have the tools to course Argentina a few problems, and Switzerland they've proved over years now they're a difficult team to play against and ultimately, above all, they're a difficult side to put away at this level. They don't lose too many games within ninety minutes, at least, either at the World Cup or at the Euros. So it's very possible that Messi Bales Argentina are out again and they win two nail three nil here in the quarter final. No one would be shocked in the slightest. He's been winning games on his own for years. Just not convinced as a collective that this Argentina team has enough to beat the likes of England, France, Spain, whoever it might be going off what I've seen so far out of the tournament. Look pretty comfortable in the group stages, but obviously they were playing a level of nations below what they're starting to face now. So yeah, I don't really know what I was saying like about Messi, just at the price and just taking away the pressure and the stress of a result as we did last time. Obviously we had Messi the school Argentina to win and look how that nearly turned out. So at one point nine at minus one and one, I'm just going to take Messy dischool.
00:49:34
Speaker 1: Maybe it's the American markets in me, but when it comes to like baseball, if someone hits a home run in nine straight games, you're not just paying minus one to eleven to get them, like they are going to prohibitively price that batter. Like there's just the overreaction in American sports and the superstar tax, so to speak, I think is a little bit more punitive. So I agree with you. I'm surprised that it's still hovering around even money for someone that all of their their lot is tied to him putting it in the back of the net. And he's obviously, you know, in terms of their strategy and their tactics, it flows through him. It's not going to be a situation where he's going to defer to these other teammates and hope that they can advance here. Speaking of that, Switzerland ideally would like this to be like their first two knockout round matches where they kept clean sheets, they kept it lower scoring, and they found a way to advance. The weather may you know, aid them a bit in this There's going to be a drastic change during the day in Kansas City, it's going to be close to ninety degrees. Then the temperature is going to fall off by about twenty degrees at night, and thunderstorms are going to come through the area, which brings in two elements to this match. One if it's a soggy field, if it's rainy conditions, and two if there is lightning, you get that stop start element. You have to take everyone off the field, certainly for a team that's a little bit more offensive minded and you know, wants to have that momentum and that continuity that the Swiss would be thrilled if it was a stop and start affair. That factor into your handicap here, Danielle A and which market in particular have you circled.
00:51:06
Speaker 4: First of all, it's good to remember that in this World Cup we haven't had many weather disruptions. Only France. Iran has been stopped for a long time, so perhaps a finger cross now, but we are new one and we have seen it before, especially in the Club World Cup last year, that weather disruption longestop affect the game quite badly. Often the game goes over the goal line that is projected, there are more goal afterwards, or maybe strange outcomes up, so this could be a factor, but of course before the game we can be sure.
00:51:40
Speaker 2: So in this case I do disagree with.
00:51:43
Speaker 4: Some in terms that I do see here Argentina heavily, heavily favorites because I always said at the top of the show, if this was a thirty eight games league Premier League style competition, no Argentina wouldn't be in the top three or top four. But in a short petition in a month, I think the chemistry and the team spirit really can carry forward any team, but especially a team that he is so talently gifted. The team in Argentina. This Argentina tam is the same team of twenty twenty two, and they do lack a particular thing, which is pays upfront. Basically, they're gonna Maria who would run the line, who would do the unselfish runs. But in order to supply for that, they got tree mid fields in the pole parades and of course whoever comes next next to them as well with them, so a nun that's too. They are well willing to sacrifice and run even more to allow Messi to be exactly in the position where he needs to be. So sometimes Messi even go on the right wing if he understands that that's where the game is going to be developed and one that is the football brain. But of course he's cannibalizing every single shooting opportunities. He's taken more than thirty shots and a loudo Ro Martinez the striker, the other striker, has only taken six shots so far, so it's everything's going through Messy. But we're talking about the best player in the world. Therefore, if there is a ball that needs to fall on someone's feet, is better to fall or Messy than anyone else considering the form is so, yes, there is an overdependence, but again over a short period of time that should not be an issue. Bookmakers have underestimated Argentina, I think so far a bit because there is the curse and the tail. The reigning champions are never profitable, but this time around in the Asian Anticap they've been thirty seven percent profitaball Argentina because they've delivered a few wins to nil. The path to the semi final is very simple.
00:53:43
Speaker 2: It is very easy.
00:53:44
Speaker 4: The other age FIFA ranking of their opponents, including Switzerland is twenty eight, so it's very is a very kind route to the final. And between Switzerland and Austria, which they be too ill, comfortably and much day two, I don't think there is much behind them really, Switzerland and nineteen in fifth rank in Austria twenty fourth. Perhaps Austria can press a little bit higher. Switzerland, they got better quality upfront. If Mazambie plays, because I think Generaalda Mazambi, who was delivered the best x G return for nineteen minutes so Switzerland the best shots on target return for nineteen minutes, he's the one who can stretch these fairly static Argentinian defense. But if it's the same lineup that played against Colombia we read it on one side, maybe Bargas on the other side that tend to come short and wanted the ball to fit, I think Argentina can deal with them. Against Colombia, Switzerland only produced zero point three XG you know, against another South American side, and Colombia are probably the South American side, much like Argentina Street twice compact, not necessarily young, managed by an Argentinian Lorenzo Estor Lorenzo So. I think they are very in the mold of Argentina and Switzerland have struggled a lot. Argentina won the last won the majority of the last fixtures against the Europeano positions and route to win the World Cup in twenty twenty two. They beat for Europeano position. Here is another European position. I think they're gonna win this one. He might not be a Vinta Argentina one, but it could be a win to nil. So I'm gonna go for an Asian Minors zero seventy five, which pays a minus one or nine, so if they win by two goals margin, you win a full steak.
00:55:30
Speaker 1: As always, we're going to close this episode with our best bet, presented by Hard Rock Bets, Sportsbook and Danielle. You were a better after my own heart, always pairing together three and four legs making the math work in your favor. You're going with Spain to qualify, Argentina to qualify, and Norway and England both to score at plus one eighty Eight's anything from that trio that gives you the most pause or almost sub it that for a different leg. Or do you just feel confident across the board?
00:55:58
Speaker 2: No, no, I feel confident on all of not treat them.
00:56:01
Speaker 4: I think Norwathy England is going to be a shootout, is not going to be a Neil Neil. The main strength of both teams in attack. Spain have got far too much quality to beat an underwhelming Belgium who can still cause them a problem.
00:56:15
Speaker 2: And Argentina go momentum, go faith.
00:56:18
Speaker 4: I got the best player in the world and let's face it, they play a team that should beat every single day of the week potentially. So yeah, he's a trouble that looks good. I mean almost tribles your state here.
00:56:31
Speaker 1: Same Hopefully your play has better odds than a messy penalty shot. What do you bringing to the table.
00:56:37
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna go with messy to score. I think scored eight goes in five World Cup games at this tournament, scored a nine consecutive World Cup matches. And I think sometimes as better as we may be, overrun lize and look for something real clever in the better markets, or try and dig down into you know, the more peculiar markets to try and find some value or something a bit niche claver, but I think when you got Messy at minus one one one and and he's still doing what he's doing against the team that Danniellie said that they should be that odds on favorites to be maybe the most simplest thing we can do is back Messy to school at minus one one one. So yeah, that's what I'll be going for for.
00:57:17
Speaker 1: Sam Ingram and Danielle Physicala on Mike Calabrey's This has been the Action Network Podcast. Thank you for listening into our continued World Cup coverage. We only have three matches more to discuss. We had the semifinals and the finals, so you're gonna want to subscribe and like to the YouTube channel. Also throw us a five star rating and review. It helps in terms of our overall reach. We're also going to be giving out some free Action Network swag to the next five star review, so please go ahead and hit us up. Say whatever you like, but as long as it comes with a five star review. As always, best of luck with all your bets and we'll see here next time. On the Action Network podcast, Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game.
00:00:02
Speaker 2: Do us proud? Right enough?
00:00:06
Speaker 3: They're running a game so smooth, so sweet, splendid sixteen just glorious execution. This, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent efforts, four thousand percent of the time.
00:00:23
Speaker 2: How shut with.
00:00:24
Speaker 3: That shop with mind and buddy, and that's.
00:00:26
Speaker 2: Why you see your beautiful Tis. Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody pics them.
00:00:35
Speaker 4: Shut a.
00:00:42
Speaker 3: W It's left on the wide eyed drill diffuge, How Old Earth picked up happens?
00:00:51
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast presented by Hard Rock Bets Sportsbook. This is our continued World Cup coverage. We had four mattress discuss here in the quarterfinals. But before we do, Sam, I'd like to discuss one of your bets that cashed in the last episode. You hit MESSI to score in Argentina to win. That was a no doubter at no point. I imagine that you were sweating that you're just spending the money in the second half because it was so clear that it was a winner. What was your thoughts on that? After really Argentina came out flat the first seventy eight minutes Egypt dominated that match, and then for them to flip the switch and to play at such a dominating pace in the final, you know, twenty minutes fifteen minutes of that match. It was incredible to watch. But also it has to be a little bit worrying for the Argentinians because you can't just do that in a knockout you know stage, continually and not get yourself burned.
00:01:43
Speaker 5: Yeah, no doubts that Messi Argentina whim was was going to be a winner. I was sweating on that one a little bit, but yeah, I know, you're absolutely right. I actually watched the game with my friend, my only Argentinian friend on so it was in rest in spectacle for me. But if they continue that in the knockout stages, they might be okay against Switzerland, they might be able to have a bit of an off day. But once they play against you know, the bigger nations, if they reach France or Spain in the final, or England in the Semis, all Norway and they play like that, they're gonna it's going to end in tears. I think I thought they were pretty average. Obviously, the early egypt go I think it was after fifteen sixteen minutes and then for them to score again, obviously that the game state then means Argentina have to push and press forward and therefore the stats, the XG, everything was heavily in argentineer's favor and so it should have been. So they created a number of high quality chances because of that. But on the whole, I'm yeah, I'm not convinced about them at all. Me and Daniellie actually picked them out on our World Cup Future Parts as the one favorite in that rung of teams and to win the tournament, it's maybe one that you shouldn't be back in the market. And I think I think that's come into fruition. There's there's a number of players there that it's basically the same squad, the same start at eleven that they had in guitar four years ago, Bardi, Maria, maybe one or two others, and it looks like that as well. Obviously four years older, looks a bit slower, they look looked a little bit leggy, and this is against an egypt squad who you know, it's that they're not the best. Obviously, they've got a few players with individual quality. I thought the right winger. Egypt's right winger was brilliant. I forgot his name, the guy on the right. But yeah, it will be a concern. It will be a concern if they if like I said, if they meet one of the big boys, they might be in for a bit of trouble.
00:03:48
Speaker 1: Danielle, do you share that sentiment that even though they may have come out and advanced, it's still is viewed as a warning sign moving forward.
00:03:57
Speaker 4: Look, he's a warning sign, but the World Cup is not a league like the Premier League. If the Word Cup was the league, I wouldn't put Argentina in the top three because I don't think they got enough consistency to be better than other three or four nations. But it's only a month, and in a month, form momentum, mental strength, coision, team spirit count for a lot, and this Argentina side has got all those elements. I totally agree with Sam. The squad is old, is aging. There is a debate going on in Argentina. Why are the younger players not coming true? Why does this team look like MESSI is amigos? Because it's exactly how Messy wants that to be. He wants to be surrounded by players they like him, they play for him, that are very street wise and basically have him as the head and not exactly what Leonards colony has done. However, do not underestimate the fact that is a team that didn't surrender, is a team that so the end, really saw the exit door and still went for it and managed to pull through an historic comeback. They never won a game at the World Cup by being two goals behind and they manage to do it. Are their favorites to win the World Cup?
00:05:15
Speaker 2: No, they aren't.
00:05:16
Speaker 4: Are they favorites against Switzerland massively? They are massively favorites against Switzerland because in three four days times there is no substitute for adrenaline and for joy and for being able to turn games around and ultimately having the best player in the world on your side. This World Cup tactically hasn't really told us much. Teams haven't really been experimental because this is how international football is. They haven't got time to practice the tactics as much as clubs. Therefore, big players make the difference that we've seen it and when you can play to the strength of the best player ever that there is does ever played in modern football. Obviously, he's gonna carry carry forward. But yeah, for the progression of the tournament, which is only could be only a couple of games away. Of course, then is down to Scaloni maybe to make some adjustments. Bring back Ottamendi in the center, back, bring back Almada tried to give a little bit more with but yeah, let's take it one day, one day at the time.
00:06:20
Speaker 1: First, from the best player in the world to the best team in the world, let's get this started. Discussing the French national team they're taking on Morocco. There minus one eighty two win in regular time plus injury time, Morocco plus five point fifty to win in that window to draw price at just shy of three to one to advance France minus three ninety and Morocco plus two ninety five. This match we played in Foxborough up in New England's France is rolling the other way to put it fourteen to two goal differential, zero goals conceded in either knockout game and Boppe Tambala Olese all finding the net, you know during this stretch, and Morocco has already proven twenty twenty two wasn't a fluke. Still, I think this market is indicating another plus five fifty to win out right is a big ask against this version of blue. So let me start with a simple question, what kind of match does Morocco need to shock the world? How go to you first?
00:07:12
Speaker 4: On la They do need to apply the same low block at times and conscious that Paraguay applied, but without the street fight and without the aggressivity. However, the thing they will require a little bit of that in order to stop France. And going back to the round of sixteen games against Paraguay, it has done France a hell of a good because winning that game without capitulating, without falling apart, without letting it go to the Aesteria has really helped France, I think, to gel and to strengthen even more. In a World Cup that is eight games long, potentially there's always going to be a sticky game, and that was the sticky game for France. Again is an opposition that, by the way, Paraguay did nothing different from what we see in Coppa Libertadores or South American football. As in Europe, Mike, we are used to, well, we are used to teams playing expansively, perhaps being too nice to referee, showing a lot of cards. That was a throwback to thirty years ago or to the Coppa Libertadores that people in South America watch.
00:08:24
Speaker 2: We can wake out. So what does Morocca have to do to answer your question, Well.
00:08:27
Speaker 4: They need to They will have to defend, they will have to undergo spells of games where they're gonna be civil and the pressure. But they do have the quality to impose themselves in the opposition half, so they don't have to necessarily leave the ball to France as Paraguay I did because they didn't have the technical skills to do it, and I do believe these France still has some mistakes in them at at the back.
00:08:50
Speaker 2: Morocco need to be courageous.
00:08:52
Speaker 1: What's your play for this one?
00:08:53
Speaker 2: Technitally, but for me it's a Morocco to score.
00:08:56
Speaker 4: So Morocco over zero point five goals under zero point five goals in the first ten minutes, so let me pick it first ten minutes Neil Neil basically and Morocco to score one goal a list in the match plus one O five double's your stake. Let's start with the first ten minutes. This is in Fox Bros. You remember, as you mentioned four PM kickoff no air conditioning. I think this is going to play a part. By the way, three out of the four quarter finals are playing in games in stadiums with no air conditioning. Perhaps Fadig mikey k in a little bit, I think this is probably a factor. The teams are not necessarily going to go gang.
00:09:35
Speaker 2: Ho and early goals.
00:09:37
Speaker 4: We haven't seen many early goals in France and Morocco games, only two inside of their ten games at the World Cup. So they do start fast, but not that fast. Now this bat and this pick, it's all about Morocco scoring.
00:09:54
Speaker 2: In the last two.
00:09:55
Speaker 4: World Cups, in the last eight quarter finals, only three teams have not scored or in the quarterfinals Portugal against Morocco when Morocco in twenty twenty two were playing very low block, and then Uruguay and Sweden against France and England in twenty eighteen. So normally team who will get to the top eight of the world can score a goal against anyone. So I do believe that there is a goal in both sides for sure. Morocco have shown against Canada that they have got different game plans as well, even when they are under the cosh, because they were under the cosh in the first half against Senega. Against Canada, they didn't crumble and then they scored with the two goals with the first three shots on target shots from distance as well, So they can change and adapt the game. Of course, the concern is that they're going to be with Asaibari because probably is Injean he's going to miss that. But I think here again, if they do play with courage, they can score against a front side which is kept back to backling shit. But if you look at the XG number, they should have conceided one point sixty eight goals. More of course, the fact that Mike might and save the penalty against Norway counts towards that.
00:11:04
Speaker 2: In extremely good for both teams.
00:11:06
Speaker 4: Marocco Beaten in thirty four, which is the second longest triak in international football behind Spain. Now when you look at this longest triak, often there are a lot of drows in there only eight drows. So Morocco have won most of those games, scoring in the last eleven. And when I talk about France, the vulnerability could be and the full back carriers ding kunde and they're going to get exposed. Perhaps yes, against Akimi the best full backs at this World Cup. I think Dio to Pamechano plays for Bayern, has got a mistake on him, hasn't made anyone so far in this World Cup. But you know some we watch him every week and the Champions League, he has got a little mistake in it and maybe this is the game where he gets triggered. And just finally, the odds for France at the longest in the tournament. He's never been pressed prized so high in this tournament. But they're very similar. Actually they're identical to when they beat Senegal three to one in match they won. Now if you remember that game, first off, Senegal got the better side and Senegal are on par with Morocco in terms of quality. You know they played the offcome final this year, they were very, very level in the second half. France turned up, they scored, they conceded, they should have conceider perhaps another goal. And when you look at the odds for Morocco, they never lost by more than two goals margin since losing to France in twenty twenty two in the World Cup semi finals. Since then, they never lost by more than two goal margin. The ession anti gap is minus one, by the way, which I think is a leader bit risky. And back then in the twenty twenty two semi final defeat, they were at the identical odds to now plus seven fifty for the win. I think since then they move up a long long way, so I think this minus one anticap it is risky. So for me, it's Morocco over zero point five goals and under zero point five goals in the first ten minutes to double restake.
00:13:00
Speaker 1: Now. Sam Danielle gave us a comprehensive coverage of the match end to end. He did mention the weather though it's going to be in the mid to upper eighties, there's going to be a little bit of a breeze. Do you think fatigue plays it all into this and have you crafted a play that kind of considers that angle?
00:13:15
Speaker 5: Yeah, it does consider that angle when you've got twenty two players playing in real heat, no air com maybe you know, definitely the France squad, a lot of the Morocco squad playing in Europe as well, like they're not used to playing at these in this kind of climate, at these kind of temperatures week in, week out, So it will probably have an impact. I'm hoping it will limit the number of goals. I've gone for France win and under five match goals, and you can get that at minus one two five. I think that's a pretty good way into the game. Like Danielle said, maybe the minus one Asian handicap for Francis is a little bit dodgy in terms of are they going to win by a two go margin? Maybe, but I think this might be a little bit safer. And the first of all, that Paraguay France game, I have never seen anything like it in terms of like Paraguay not receiving a single yellow card and not not one yellow card and they spend ninety minutes just trying to kick him up in the air. I just thought that was crazy. There was there was two players, the guy with the long air and center mid and my god, pretty much committing GBH for most of the game and not a single yellow card. So that was that was interesting, and it was a really tricky test for France with Paraguay presenting a different kind of challenge for France that they faced previously and recently in the vocal qualifiers that they'd have had nothing like that. The intent from Paraguay was clear unsettled France, be overly physical, bring them down to their level, make it a scrappy game, try and make that a leveler. But France showed like Danielly said, they they could not only use attractive free flow in football as we've seen in the tournament so far, but they can also emerge victorious in what was a greaty, full blooded affair when it really mattered, and that one they'll win over Paraguay was the only game which France failed to score a minimum of three goals. Paraguay sat in that low compact block. No other team at the twenty twenty six World Cup has limited France in forward areas as much as Paraguay. They conceded only one point four to five XJ in that ninety minute period, so perhaps that approach does offer a blueprint towards success as we've spoken about, although that did come out a cost for Paraguay because they only generated zero point one three x G and forward areas. So the task ahead for Morocco it needs the balance that attack and output with limiting France's opportunities in attack, and that is a conundrum that no team has really mastered against France at the World Cup so far, and so I expect Morocco to try and frustrate France for periods as Paraguay did, and then look to hit them on the counter and in transition when and if the opportunity arises that they cannot really afford to go toe to toe with France, I don't think because it will probably end in tears. But for Morocco, we saw against Canada which they won three nil, but it wasn't really a free nil game. It didn't really feel like a free nil game. The final score I made it look a little bit more comfortable than it was for Morocco. We saw Morocco under the cosh a bit, especially in the opening stages of the first half. I thought Morocco looked a little bit leggy at times alongside a Canada team which was high energy and snapping into duels. And not only that Dannelly mentioned it, but Sibari, the Morocco striker, was sub during that game and he has missed all of the training sessions leading up to this France quarter final at the time of speaking, so I don't think he'll be fit enough to play, which I think might be a significant loss, and we spoke about it with Bulligan in the last podcast. In a quarter final match where you need your big strikers, when you need your main man up top, someone capable of putting it in the net when you're probably not going to get too many chances, when you've not got him around, that is a significant loss. Rahimi looks like you'll probably replace him. He come on against Canada, got a goal, hit the bar overheader, so he'll likely keep his place. And he actually played pretty well. But he's not Sidebari. He's been playing in the United Arab Emirates for maybe five six years. I don't know too much about him. He look good, but still I think that might limit Morocco in the final third, which hopefully should aid the under five match go selection. In defense, Morocco of average zero point eight two expect it goes against. So far in this competition, they've conceded four goals in five games, so whilst we don't expect Morocco to keep a clean sheet, the likelihood is that they probably won't be as easy to breachers. Maybe Sweden three nail in the group stages. A rotated Norway team for one the group stage, so Yeah, despite France's free score in nature. You know, we've spoken about their attack many times. I think France to win on the five match goes gives us a little bit of leeway. We can get a free one France win on our side to to France win free now France four, no France. There's a lot of school lines there with that selection. So at minus one two five, yeah, I think it looks pretty good.
00:18:21
Speaker 1: Back gentlemen, we're in the double digits here in episodes for the World Cup, yet you're still bringing new phrases and acronyms to the show. So I think we need a graphic or a chiron on the bottom for GBH grievous bodily harm for those who are not in the know. Yeah, I agree. It was incredible that they did not get carded at any point. They were bringing the fight quite literally to the French the entire match, so it was kind of it was kind of wild to see. Speaking of people that aren't necessarily tuned in to soccer, my friends who hate soccer, they like to say, if they wanted to watch gen Z Dude struggle to score for ninety minutes, they just go people watching at the bar, but this year I got them an Action Pro description and now they love the World Cup. We have money line over under spread and player prop projections like Anytime Goalscorers for Action Pro users all throughout the World Cup. Starting now, new users can get three months of Action Pro for the price of two months. So go to Actionnework dot com slash Pro to get in on this offer now to become the smartest, better you can be. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, hard rock Bet sportsbook. The hard Rock Bet Party is on and your name is on the guest list. Hard Rock Bet is a top rated sportsbook app that's built for those of us who know betting. You know all the others. Now give hard Rock Bet a try. Make your first bet on hard rock Bet today and score one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets if you win. Just place a five dollars bet and if it hits, not only do you get your winnings, but you also get an extra one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Hard Rock Bet will be a major partner of what we're doing here throughout the summer with the show we'll be using their lines, odds, and data when talking about the biggest stories in this tournament. Sign up for hard Rock Bet Today Role with Us offered by the Seminole Tribe of Florida. In the state of Florida, offered by Seminal hard Rock Digital LLC. In all other states. Must be twenty one plus and physically president in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned with gambling in Florida, call one eight three three play wise. In Indiana. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and nine with it. In Arizona, Ohio and Virginia, call one eight hundred MI Reset gambling problem Call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, and Tennessee. Friday, July tenth at SOFI Stadium in Inglewood, California, Spain, Belgium. The Spanish side minus one sixty five to advance in regular time Belgium plus four fifty. The draw priced out at just shy of three to one to advance, though it gets even steeper Spain minus three to forty Belgium plus two sixty Spain. We kind of alluded to it earlier. They are currently on a thirty five game unbeaten streak and all competitions twenty six wins, nine draws, which is tied for the nation's longest run. Spain also became the first team in history to have six consecutive clean sheets at the FIFA World Cup, five games here in twenty twenty six and one in the knockout stage back in twenty twenty two. Belgium has a lot to be proud of in their own right. Unbeaten in eighteen straight and they just hung four on the co host United States. Really a dominating performance from the Red Devils, and that's what we were waiting to see and hoping that Belgium could elevate themselves and prove that they were a top ten team in the world, and they did. But this one really comes down to a possession verse counter clash and Belgium at plus five hundred, I would argue, or at least, you know, even nine to two plus four fifty offers some value if you can slow Yamal and Pedrie down in the midfield. A tall task though, so I'll start with Sam on this one. You like the Spanish side, but you're getting into a specific market. Walk us through it.
00:21:52
Speaker 5: Yeah, Mike, that is a big if. Obviously stopping Yamao, Pedrie and midfield Wildery in the hartfield, expying her on the left as well for Athletic Madrid, He's had a really good tournament, So it is a big if in terms of Belgium progressing and stop in Spain. The thing is with Belgium for me, they've they've largely underwhelmed. They played well against USA, but they were dreadful against Senegal. Senegal deserves to win that round of thirty two fixture. Belgium weren't great in the group stages either. Obviously did enough to progress, but just because they you know, put four past the USA played well, played better, I don't think we should maybe just come to the conclusion that now they're going to turn up against Spain and put in a really good show in I've still got my question marks around Belgium, still not too sure if they can really cut it against the likes of Spain, And if you look at Spain, they didn't allow a single shot on target against Austria in the round of thirty two, and they followed up that with their fifth cleen Heit of the tournament against Portrait and they considered just zero point sixty three xga against Portugal. No other nation have ever recorded six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, with five coming in this tournament. Like you mentioned the fact that Spain's opponents are struggling to regain possession and course issues. In that Spanish defensive thirty, it's a very good signal as they progress through this tournament. They've allowed just one point four nine xga in their opening five games, averaging zero point three expect it goes against per ninety, which is the lowest of any team in the tournament. And that zero point three zero expect it goes against per ninety is a remarkable level of defensive output from Spain. If they continue that against Belgium, it's more than likely that Spain will outscoore Belgium in their quarter final game and ultimately reach the semi final. Portugal recorded just two shots and tired it in that ninety minutes last time out. As I mentioned, Austria before, didn't record one Spain have averaged one point zero shots against ninety the entire tournament, so defensively pretty impressive. I think how this game might look, or how Belgium might want it to look, is I think Rudy Garcia's team. I think they'll want this to be a shootout if they can possibly make it one. I think that they might feel that they'll be able to edge a shoot out against Spain. All of Belgium's notable victories under Rudy Garcia have been just that, the two against Whales in qualifying four two and four three, against Senegal three two, and then obviously for one against USA, which might not really been a shootout being a high score and win. But I'm not really sure if Belgium are good enough to do that against Spain, and I don't think Spain will allow that kind of game to transpire. Belgium were underwhelming in the group stage and like I said, really really didn't impress me in the knockoutside just so far by that USAA game. For me, just Spain are the much better collective. They've got players who can really hurt Belgium, and for all of those regions reasons all right alongside Belgium being not overly convincing. I think I'm just going to take Spain. They're a little bit short in the one x two market. On the Asian handicap minus zero point seventy five, you can get a price near even. So this handicap needs Spain to win by a two go margin to return full profits. If they win by one go margin in nineteen minutes, you'll get half profits. So I think that's good enough. I've not got the price that I might. I think it's I've lost it minus one twenty minus one two five. Maybe, yeah, that's good enough for me.
00:25:34
Speaker 1: I think Danielle the stink that was put on this Belgium side with the nil nil draw against Iran, I think that's where everybody got off the bandwagon. They said that there's something wrong with this attack, that they'll be lucky to win a single match in the knockout. Then they beat Senegal and they just take it to the Americans in it just a dominant fashion. Has that changed your version or vision of this Belgian team, because honestly, the way that it's priced here, it seems like a fatal complete that the Spanish are going to advance now. You have them to advance, but you are attacking on both teams to score. So perhaps you're kind of sputting the decision here, saying that you've seen enough that Belgium seems to have a little bit of fight in them, and you think you're going to find the back of the net.
00:26:17
Speaker 4: Yes, because I think whereas Pain are overwhelm on me favorites and I think the will advance and this is the end for Belgium. Oh, by the way, have had a very kind path to the quarterfinals. I mean they've also scored five against New Zealand. I don't totally buy into the fact that Spain I'm going to keep six consecutively sheets, seven consecutively sheets going into a World Cup semi final or final. I think eventually this resistance is going to give in. But they were quite impressive defensively against Portugal, basically because they have the ball so long for the game that the other teams cannot have it, although Portugal did have a few good chances towards the end. And again I do think that all these top eight teams all have mistakes in them at the back, and we still haven't seen a mistake from the Spanish backline.
00:27:08
Speaker 2: I think he might criep in.
00:27:10
Speaker 4: But my point here it's first of all, I want to praise Belgium and Rudy Garcia for being able to make the tough calls.
00:27:17
Speaker 2: During this tournament.
00:27:19
Speaker 4: We've seen very few managers changing information and changing the personnel so much as Rudy Garcia has done. But he understood the Lucaku is much better off the bench, that the Bruyne is better to be left out, that the look back you can be the man to unlock defenses running behind. He even left out Docu in the game against the US and then brought him into the seven half. So he has changed quite a lot, and I think that it is a quality in a manager.
00:27:48
Speaker 1: Now.
00:27:49
Speaker 4: Of course, they come here Belgium with no pressure whatsoever, because if they go back home and they get eliminated by Pain, everyone will say, Okay, that's fine, that's a decent tournament for US, top eight in the world. What more can you want with a fading Golden generation, I think we can call it golden generation anymore. The biggest sue for Belgium is that in order to qualify Spain again you need to defend for spells of the game for thirty forty minutes and we stand pressure. They simply don't have the defenders to do that. And also they're gonna miss Amaduanana due to injuries, who's so important in midfield, so physical, So I think they're probably gonna miss the most important midfielder.
00:28:28
Speaker 2: Of the lot.
00:28:29
Speaker 4: And to just to frame how unfancied Belgium are by bookmakers, they aren't beaten in nineteen games Belgium including friendlies.
00:28:41
Speaker 2: Now.
00:28:42
Speaker 4: Back in twenty fourteen, twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, when they were even top of the fifth ranking, they went to twenty four games unbeaten. Now the odds for them to win are the longest for Belgium since October twenty eleven. Basically we need to go back almost to the beginning of the Golden Era to find similar odds for Belgium as long, which tells you that this Belgian side, despite such a long and beaten streak, are perceived to be much much weaker than ever that they've been in the past thirteen years. And they played a lot of top games in those fifteen years accounting, So yeah, they are unfancied for a reason. Yeah, it's a tough assignment. Look for Belgium Spain, as we said and bidden in thirty five. They only failed to score in three of these games. Serbia Egypt was a friendly in Capo Verdi, which I do think again was a statistical anomally. Normally every other time they play this game, they score. The concern is that Yamal is not at its best yet and maybe he might not have a be at this tournament. But I do think Spain to qualify both team to score, yes, plus one hundred and forty. I know it's risky, I think that there is the chance for Spain to win the game within ninety minutes, maybe in a high scoring game.
00:30:06
Speaker 1: We turned to Saturday, July eleventh for a double header and that's going to close out to our quarterfinal matches. We're going to start in Miami with Norway and England. Norway plus three ten to advance in regular time and injury time, England minus one fifteen in that window, plus two to seventy on the draw to advance, Norway plus one to eighty the English side minus two twenty five. First ever World Cup quarterfinal for Norway. Holland has been the story just scoring at will scored two against Brazil that was enough to knock them out. England ground out a three to two win over Mexico at the Esteca and really kind of showed their metal because having to do so with just ten on the pitch and the Mexican side just feverishly trying to equalize there, it was an opportunity to escape and not just a feeling of we were lucky to get out of there. That really, I think kind of changes the overall narrative for this English side. And Sam, I want to go to you first, because it's never part of the DNA of English soccer fans to look beyond and to start to dream of what it would be like to be in a final or to win the World Cup. But are we inching closer to that optimism starting to creep in a little bit, particularly when you see this path. I know that Holland has been an absolute world beater and he's terrifying, but in terms of their overall quality, you have to be happy with this quarterfinal matchup.
00:31:25
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think England has to be happy with it. I think as football fans it would be I think you have to let yourself dream a little bit there would be a lot of the of the nation kind of looking ahead, looking at maybe Argentina Switzerland, and after the Argentina performance probably thinking, you know what, you know, if you get past Norway, it's got a really good chance of getting into the final. And then when you're in the final, it's ninety minutes on hundred and twenty minutes and any team can win. So yeah, allowing myself to dream a little bit, but look, this is not a fight forward task Norway. They've shown that they're a good team. They can score plenty of goals against some, you know, really top level nations. I think it's always probably obvious to say, but I think where this game will be one or lost for England is simply whether they can stop Earlin Harland or not, and whether they can stop the service that comes to him from the likes of Marinoda guard as a collective quite clearly, I think most people will agree that England are the better team. They are odds on favorites here for a reason. But yeah, for me and likely for many others, to keep battle on this pitch. From an England perspective, it's those two central defenders, first, Earling Harland for Brazil, Markinos and Gabrielle lost that battle last time out. Itally couldn't contain him. Sorry to bring it up home and away and qualifiers. I could list twenty to thirty Premier League teams that have failed, alongside plenty of teams across Europe in the Champions League, in the Bundesliga that have also failed. So limiting Arlin Harland in the final third, it is much as this said than done. It's probably the most difficult assignment you could give to a central defender. And this got to be honest. This is not a vintage England back line. It's just not. I like Mark Gayhey, I like Ezri Conza. I've always been a big fan of John Stones, but I'm not sure they're going to stop him. And interestingly, I know Stones is left Manchester City now, but Mark Gaihey and John Stones they've been Manchester well Stones especially he's been a Manchester City teammate for Harland for a number of years. Gayhee obviously moved to City in January, so they are going to be used to him. They're probably thrilled that they don't have to face and week in week out now in the Premier League. Mark Gayhey obviously did for Palace, so that's going to be an interesting battle. But I think that that probably leads me to believe in that England might have to outscore Norway in this game. If we believe that Harland is probably going to get some chances, likely going to score and this this might not be a one new England win. So if that is the case, and England are pushing forward for goals, and if they're buoyed by that performance performance last time out that we think they probably will be, then I expect Harry Kane to score. And I know I put it up on the last pod, Harry Kane any anytime go score a But I think I'm going to do it again. We've got a bit of a shorter price, got minus one eleven. But I think there's a bit of value in that. Like we said, like the big boys keep scoring, their teams keep winning, so you know, why not keep keep backing it. And if you look at Norway defensively, they've allowed eight point zero seven expected those against in their five World Cup matches. No other nation still involved in this tournament has conceded more in that metric than Norway and Additionally, the seventy three shots faced after five games, which is fourteen point three zero shots conceded per ninety on average, is also more than any side remaining in the tournament. So if this level of defensive output continues for Norway against a world class striker like Harry Kane a world class front line like England possesses, then you would imagine opportunities will follow and they will likely present themselves to Harry Kane. And if that does transpire, then Harry Kane will probably score scored a penalty last time out at the Azteca, and that is obviously a huge plus for any potential anytime go score a selection, if you've got a striker on penalties, then there's always a chance for your bet to win from twelve yards, which is really handy and probably an overlooked angle of at any time goal score a bet. So yeah, I'm not going to repeat myself by going into Hurry Kane analyzing this game and what he's about, So instead this time ound and I've got his Bayern Munich numbers in front of me from this season and to show what kind of form he's been in recently started twenty five games in the Bundesliga, appeared in thirty one matches, scored thirty six goals. He scored fourteen goals in thirteen appearances in Sampions League, scored tangos and six the FB Pokau appearances in Germany, which is like they're at domestic cup and now six goes in England's five games at the World Cup. So minus one one one to score any time against a team who England thought are John favorites against. Like I said, big players keeps going, goes that teams keep winning, So I'm minus one one one on Mappy to take that on.
00:36:24
Speaker 1: I think Danielle, I think you're going to side kind of with the overall narrative, which is the English side probably needs to outscore Norway. You can do everything that you want strategically, you can throw bodies at Alan, but he's probably going to find the back of the net at least once. And the way you're taking advantage of that, you're going to say both teams to score, Yes, at minus one thirty three. In addition to that, do you think there's an exact score market if you had to throw out a prediction and I can look up that the latest odds as you give it here live, that you think would be a reasonable projection about where this game ends.
00:37:00
Speaker 4: Well, it's hard to say, because the best Inland games so at this World Cup I've been all I scoring for two against Croatia, three two against Mexico. The four to two against Creatia remains the better game. The poorest game have been the lowest scoring one, of course, and the saying goes well as for no Way. All the games have been high scoring, so it's very hard to pin down an exact score. It would probably I would probably tend to say two to one either way, but that is probably the cautious approach. Do you agree with some this is not a nil nil, This is not a one nil. England will need to outscore Norway, but list scoring two or three if they want to qualify within ninety minutes. What I find in particularly strange is the fact that the odds for England to win in ninety minutes are shorter here in the quarterfinals than what they were when they faced Mexic on the round of sixteen, which told me two things. Really, the book makers overestimated the altitude and the challenge of Mexico.
00:37:59
Speaker 2: Poe used perhaps in England there was a little bit.
00:38:03
Speaker 4: Of hysteria around all these adversities that England had to face, but we are used to that, after all, we are used to that kind of mindset. But I differ on paper, England look much much They were much better the Mexico.
00:38:21
Speaker 2: The Indian looked better and.
00:38:23
Speaker 4: They got the game planned down to a tee, which was probably what Thomas Tukel was waiting for and have prepared for the entire tournament. The game plan was let Mexico attack, let Mexico have the ball, let them towns that does, and then we hit in the counter, which is exactly what England know how to do it extremely well, and they've done it through the qualifiers. England struggles against low blocks, medium blocks, but they're little. In transition, they are the prototype of a premier league team, probably a Premier League team that would not win the Premier League, premier team that will be extremely competitive because we got all those kinds of facets, including being very good as the pieces as well. Against against Norway, I think this game plan is gonna be the same. But normally Norway I think they're gonna be smartyr in this case they're probably not gonna go all out at England as Mexico did, but they would try to pick the moments as well. Against Brazil, Norway almost should themselves in the foot by having too much possession in the first half and being sterile and basically picking up the wrong formation. We saw a lot to deployed on the right wing. Then in the second half when they changed it with Oscar Bob, a slider loop who delivered more crosses and made the pitch wider, that's when really hurt Brazil because of course they could feed aland more dangerous balls and we saw the results. So yeah, the key for England to win this one is to deal with Island Stones and Gay will have to do with him. Dealing with with as well. In midfield is gonna be a battle. England is gonna hit on the counter. But if you look at the the weak spot of Norway, it's clearly that defense. It's clearly the back line is clearly the full backs. Where I think England wingers, which gonna be Gordon and Saga, I'm not gonna be any more changes from there can find joy in transition. Look, I think there's gonna be a high temple game, there is a bass, but there's a huge contingent of Norwegian players who play in England, so they're gonna be used to that. And yeah, maybe the start might be slow. They're playing Miami five pm in the afternoon, nowhere conditioning here. Again, that could be a factor. Let's see how much it affects England coming back to Mexico City. But I think yeah, with with the with the with two top those scorers in such a good form and all the attacking players in good form, both team to score for me, looks the most obvious player minus one then thirty three.
00:41:06
Speaker 5: What I will say is that the first goal might be pretty important. If England scores and then Norway obviously have to get on the ball and make something happen and push forward, then that might only be Norway's undoing. If Norway can get a goal and then obviously then they'll be They'll be kind of allowed for the midfield to sit back a bit, protect that back line and then use Horland on the counter and force England to maybe try and unpick a little block. If that transpires, then then it might be it might it might prove pretty difficult for England. So so that that first goal might be crucial. It might not be. They might score and then it might turn into a real shoe out, but it might be important.
00:41:50
Speaker 4: I think the longer the game goes and the longer England goes at it, I think eventually they will find the goal. I mean, we they do struggle against a low block, but Congo defended for their life. In the end they capitulated. Panama defended for a long spells and in the end they copedulated. I think England a goal, many many weapons, even if it's from a set piece or from a codified action. I think they do have. I mean, I don't see this Norway side keeping a clean sheet against anyone. I mean no clean one clean shit in the last ten really. But that's not that's not the strength, that's not the type of football they play. And I mean they dominated the possession against Brazil, which tells you a lot how football has changed. Watching that game, you almost feel football of the nineteenth century. It's gone ten to fifteen years ago. You never thought Noway are going to have the ball more than Brazil, and in the end they had it. But equally, you can't imagine nowhere keeping a.
00:42:50
Speaker 1: Clean shit here, Anthoniel, it to your prediction on two to one. If it's two to one England in regular time, that is a seven to one payout. If it's two to one Norway and at your time at twelve to one payoffs. So it's just somebody to consider, all right. We close out the quarterfinals in Kansas City, Missouri, Argentina returning. They've actually played their first match of the group stage there in case they're taking on Switzerland here though the Swiss plus four to fifty two advanced in regular time, Argentina minus one forty the draw plus two to fifty five to advance, Argentina just about minus three hundred, the Swiss plus two thirty, and as we've already discussed, they survived with an all timeer comeback, the Argentinians coming back from a two to zero deficit in the seventy eighth minute three unanswered goals to escape. You can argue whether that's a warning sign, whether the defense has cracks, or proof of the championship medal and pedigree. Messi Martinez closing things out. The Swiss by the way, they ground pass Columbia on penalties, and I'm kicking myself because I mentioned it in the show. It was plus seven to fifty for either side to win via pks. Of course they took Columbia plus seven to fifty. Did not sprinkle on both sides of that. The Swiss have to be three. I mean, talk about being happy to be here. They're also in probably the softest of the remaining for you know, favorites that they have to face, so the most ideal kind of you know path for them to continue this this dream run. I understand that Argentina is the defending World Cup champions, but they can't be coming in with a ton of confidence and they're not going to overlook the Swiss after what just happened to them against the Egyptians. With that being said, Sam, you're looking past, you know, an outright on either side here and you're going with a tried and true Let me see if I can pronounce this guy's name right, Lionel Messi. I haven't heard of this guy. Is he going to score again?
00:44:35
Speaker 4: Is this just like this.
00:44:37
Speaker 1: Seems improbable knowing that he's the goat, knowing that he's basically putting the team on his back, and no one can you know, drape two or three defenders around him for the majority of the match and prevent him from getting a good look. So you think it's just you know, it's going to come down to how many shots he gets on goal because he's an absolute sniper, and when he does get that opportunity, he's going to in the back of the net.
00:45:02
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's pretty good this Lionel Messi isn't He keeps scoring goals. I think it's nine consecutive World Cup matches that he's scored in and the bookmakers have given us a minus one on one price on him to score at any time. I just have to take it. I think at this stage it just makes complete sense.
00:45:20
Speaker 4: And so long as it's not penalties album, as long as it doesn't take.
00:45:25
Speaker 5: This thing, Oh my goodness, I can how can a player be so good but so poor penalties?
00:45:36
Speaker 4: Eight World Cup penalties?
00:45:39
Speaker 5: He's not great. My friend I was watching the game of last night. He said, it's like a top mitchellin star Chef. He's got a range of restaurants. Not being able to make a ham sandwich unless he not being able to score. Was pretty funny. But Argentina in general, I'm really I'm really not hot on them at all. It's so far, so good. They're in the Court of Final, We've had two matches, there were the knockout stages against two nations. You'd expect them to beat relatively comfortably and they haven't been able to do so. So I'm still not sold on them. Despite sorry being defending champions. This is a squad that's four years older, like I said earlier in the show, from the latest triumph and going off the eye test, I think that's talent. Of course, a lot of the play goes through Lion or Messi, and that will always be both effective and pretty dangerous for any other any opponent. But when you've got Rodrigo DePaul shoehorned into what is effectively a right midfield role, when you've got Tagliafico, I think he's might maybe thirty three, going up and down the left flank, leaving space in behind. I think I think he's probably pasted it a little bit, reaching the twilight of his career, and you've got paraders in front of the base midfield in front of the defenders who's also in his mid thirties. I think I just it's just not a team that really I'm just not massively confident with them, not really not enough to back them here and put more money behind them. They do. However, if you're looking at the data, they do have the second best underlying defensive process of all teams remaining in the tournament, just two point nine eight x G in five games, which is pretty decent. But the question that you have to ask when looking at stuff like this is who have they really played or what attacks have they really faced that of that have really put them under too much pressure. Egypt did pretty well of that last night, and they scored twice. They were a shirt pull away from that being three goals. Obviously it might not you know, ended up that way, but yeah, Egypt look pretty comfortable going forward and got behind them a fair few times, so that that has to be a concern. This is not a defense that's watertight, even if the data suggests so. And just all in all, really for Argentine, I'm a little bit concerned when they'll have to face if they face the likes of Sakka, the Tagliafico Gordon on the porch side, guessing scalodly might change it around for that and to avoid those kind of one v one examples. But in Switzerland vargas Andi Manzambi if he can play here, I know he missed the last game against Colombia. I think they have the tools to course Argentina a few problems, and Switzerland they've proved over years now they're a difficult team to play against and ultimately, above all, they're a difficult side to put away at this level. They don't lose too many games within ninety minutes, at least, either at the World Cup or at the Euros. So it's very possible that Messi Bales Argentina are out again and they win two nail three nil here in the quarter final. No one would be shocked in the slightest. He's been winning games on his own for years. Just not convinced as a collective that this Argentina team has enough to beat the likes of England, France, Spain, whoever it might be going off what I've seen so far out of the tournament. Look pretty comfortable in the group stages, but obviously they were playing a level of nations below what they're starting to face now. So yeah, I don't really know what I was saying like about Messi, just at the price and just taking away the pressure and the stress of a result as we did last time. Obviously we had Messi the school Argentina to win and look how that nearly turned out. So at one point nine at minus one and one, I'm just going to take Messy dischool.
00:49:34
Speaker 1: Maybe it's the American markets in me, but when it comes to like baseball, if someone hits a home run in nine straight games, you're not just paying minus one to eleven to get them, like they are going to prohibitively price that batter. Like there's just the overreaction in American sports and the superstar tax, so to speak, I think is a little bit more punitive. So I agree with you. I'm surprised that it's still hovering around even money for someone that all of their their lot is tied to him putting it in the back of the net. And he's obviously, you know, in terms of their strategy and their tactics, it flows through him. It's not going to be a situation where he's going to defer to these other teammates and hope that they can advance here. Speaking of that, Switzerland ideally would like this to be like their first two knockout round matches where they kept clean sheets, they kept it lower scoring, and they found a way to advance. The weather may you know, aid them a bit in this There's going to be a drastic change during the day in Kansas City, it's going to be close to ninety degrees. Then the temperature is going to fall off by about twenty degrees at night, and thunderstorms are going to come through the area, which brings in two elements to this match. One if it's a soggy field, if it's rainy conditions, and two if there is lightning, you get that stop start element. You have to take everyone off the field, certainly for a team that's a little bit more offensive minded and you know, wants to have that momentum and that continuity that the Swiss would be thrilled if it was a stop and start affair. That factor into your handicap here, Danielle A and which market in particular have you circled.
00:51:06
Speaker 4: First of all, it's good to remember that in this World Cup we haven't had many weather disruptions. Only France. Iran has been stopped for a long time, so perhaps a finger cross now, but we are new one and we have seen it before, especially in the Club World Cup last year, that weather disruption longestop affect the game quite badly. Often the game goes over the goal line that is projected, there are more goal afterwards, or maybe strange outcomes up, so this could be a factor, but of course before the game we can be sure.
00:51:40
Speaker 2: So in this case I do disagree with.
00:51:43
Speaker 4: Some in terms that I do see here Argentina heavily, heavily favorites because I always said at the top of the show, if this was a thirty eight games league Premier League style competition, no Argentina wouldn't be in the top three or top four. But in a short petition in a month, I think the chemistry and the team spirit really can carry forward any team, but especially a team that he is so talently gifted. The team in Argentina. This Argentina tam is the same team of twenty twenty two, and they do lack a particular thing, which is pays upfront. Basically, they're gonna Maria who would run the line, who would do the unselfish runs. But in order to supply for that, they got tree mid fields in the pole parades and of course whoever comes next next to them as well with them, so a nun that's too. They are well willing to sacrifice and run even more to allow Messi to be exactly in the position where he needs to be. So sometimes Messi even go on the right wing if he understands that that's where the game is going to be developed and one that is the football brain. But of course he's cannibalizing every single shooting opportunities. He's taken more than thirty shots and a loudo Ro Martinez the striker, the other striker, has only taken six shots so far, so it's everything's going through Messy. But we're talking about the best player in the world. Therefore, if there is a ball that needs to fall on someone's feet, is better to fall or Messy than anyone else considering the form is so, yes, there is an overdependence, but again over a short period of time that should not be an issue. Bookmakers have underestimated Argentina, I think so far a bit because there is the curse and the tail. The reigning champions are never profitable, but this time around in the Asian Anticap they've been thirty seven percent profitaball Argentina because they've delivered a few wins to nil. The path to the semi final is very simple.
00:53:43
Speaker 2: It is very easy.
00:53:44
Speaker 4: The other age FIFA ranking of their opponents, including Switzerland is twenty eight, so it's very is a very kind route to the final. And between Switzerland and Austria, which they be too ill, comfortably and much day two, I don't think there is much behind them really, Switzerland and nineteen in fifth rank in Austria twenty fourth. Perhaps Austria can press a little bit higher. Switzerland, they got better quality upfront. If Mazambie plays, because I think Generaalda Mazambi, who was delivered the best x G return for nineteen minutes so Switzerland the best shots on target return for nineteen minutes, he's the one who can stretch these fairly static Argentinian defense. But if it's the same lineup that played against Colombia we read it on one side, maybe Bargas on the other side that tend to come short and wanted the ball to fit, I think Argentina can deal with them. Against Colombia, Switzerland only produced zero point three XG you know, against another South American side, and Colombia are probably the South American side, much like Argentina Street twice compact, not necessarily young, managed by an Argentinian Lorenzo Estor Lorenzo So. I think they are very in the mold of Argentina and Switzerland have struggled a lot. Argentina won the last won the majority of the last fixtures against the Europeano positions and route to win the World Cup in twenty twenty two. They beat for Europeano position. Here is another European position. I think they're gonna win this one. He might not be a Vinta Argentina one, but it could be a win to nil. So I'm gonna go for an Asian Minors zero seventy five, which pays a minus one or nine, so if they win by two goals margin, you win a full steak.
00:55:30
Speaker 1: As always, we're going to close this episode with our best bet, presented by Hard Rock Bets, Sportsbook and Danielle. You were a better after my own heart, always pairing together three and four legs making the math work in your favor. You're going with Spain to qualify, Argentina to qualify, and Norway and England both to score at plus one eighty Eight's anything from that trio that gives you the most pause or almost sub it that for a different leg. Or do you just feel confident across the board?
00:55:58
Speaker 2: No, no, I feel confident on all of not treat them.
00:56:01
Speaker 4: I think Norwathy England is going to be a shootout, is not going to be a Neil Neil. The main strength of both teams in attack. Spain have got far too much quality to beat an underwhelming Belgium who can still cause them a problem.
00:56:15
Speaker 2: And Argentina go momentum, go faith.
00:56:18
Speaker 4: I got the best player in the world and let's face it, they play a team that should beat every single day of the week potentially. So yeah, he's a trouble that looks good. I mean almost tribles your state here.
00:56:31
Speaker 1: Same Hopefully your play has better odds than a messy penalty shot. What do you bringing to the table.
00:56:37
Speaker 5: I'm just gonna go with messy to score. I think scored eight goes in five World Cup games at this tournament, scored a nine consecutive World Cup matches. And I think sometimes as better as we may be, overrun lize and look for something real clever in the better markets, or try and dig down into you know, the more peculiar markets to try and find some value or something a bit niche claver, but I think when you got Messy at minus one one one and and he's still doing what he's doing against the team that Danniellie said that they should be that odds on favorites to be maybe the most simplest thing we can do is back Messy to school at minus one one one. So yeah, that's what I'll be going for for.
00:57:17
Speaker 1: Sam Ingram and Danielle Physicala on Mike Calabrey's This has been the Action Network Podcast. Thank you for listening into our continued World Cup coverage. We only have three matches more to discuss. We had the semifinals and the finals, so you're gonna want to subscribe and like to the YouTube channel. Also throw us a five star rating and review. It helps in terms of our overall reach. We're also going to be giving out some free Action Network swag to the next five star review, so please go ahead and hit us up. Say whatever you like, but as long as it comes with a five star review. As always, best of luck with all your bets and we'll see here next time. On the Action Network podcast, Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler
