SHARP NFL Week 7 Bets: 49ers-Falcons, Bucs-Panthers and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:25
Speaker 1: Brother, I apologize for my orange complexion, and what will no doubt be massive amount of honking. I'm recording from our New York studio today, also known as my mother-in-law's apartment on the Upper East Side. I apologize to you and all of our listeners. This is our Thursday NFL Week 7 show. We're going to do some sharp calls. We're going to do some brass balls, underdog and favorites around Robbins. Diamond's biggest bet, sharp versus square. All the Discord groupers you can handle. We will narrow down, start to narrow down to our final five picks for the free $ 25, 000 pro football pick'em contest. Sharp or square, dot the volume. What is that? Still totally free to enter. Sharp or square, dot the volume, dot contest. For those who are already in the contest, now that our fifth week of the contest is done, everyone's lowest score has been dropped. We've updated the scores and standings to race to the finish. Good luck to everybody playing. Simon, briefly on Tuesday, we had some questions from the Discord and you had a lot of questions coming in through your DMs about futures.
00:01:47
Speaker 2: I'm from the future.
00:01:51
Speaker 1: Then tell me, future boy.
00:01:53
Speaker 2: What kind of a future do you call that?
00:01:57
Speaker 1: The Packers have been a particularly hot topic for adjusting for futures with the idea that Josh Jacobs is coming back. Micah Parsons will be coming back eventually. Is it a good time to capture a team that's on the rise while the odds are still in our favor, them or anybody else?
00:02:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely, as soon as we talked about it, I mean, everyone's right. We should be taking positions on these teams that we like, especially where, you know, NFC, it's fair to say it's wide open.
00:02:30
Speaker 1: Wide open.
00:02:32
Speaker 2: You can make excuses for your team, say why they're the best, and you can also look at your team with an honest opinion and be like, wow, we have a bunch of glaring weaknesses. So, yeah, one-third into this season– we talk all the time. You don't, it doesn't really matter for the best team in September, October. I mean, neither of us could tell you where the best teams were last year in September, October, but it also sets the tone for your season. So it's not, you're trying to underrate it either, but yeah, obviously teams like the Vikings six and oh, I think we both don't want to overrate them too much. I don't know about you. I'd not run into the window to Benny's Superbowl futures. I don't know if you are. That's what I mean by this. So it's, we're trying to navigate how we view it going forward. And I'm definitely of the mentality of, okay, I really like Minnesota. I don't know how much I want to invest in their future market where I've already bet them in the summer. I don't know how much I believe them to actually win it all. Where Green Bay, your team, you just talked about, I do believe in them, right? If they get Parsons back, their biggest weakness will just be that offensive line. And, you know, can they overcome that in December, January? It's hard to say where, you know, if they have to go to Seattle, that would be the one team that could truly ruin Green Bay's Super Bowl futures. Every other team, I don't know about you, even Minnesota, it's like I could– because it's divisionally, I don't know how much that matters, how bad their offensive line is. So right now, if you want to take the Packers to beat the Chiefs, you can shop around, obviously. It's, you know, you are getting crazy odds. So Chiefs to beat the Packers is– basically 101 if you want to if you want to take that bet right now which i think is really good value like i said i think when parsons comes back who knows what he's going to be but if he does come back to this defense that's a huge deal you saw last year how incredible that green bay's defense was when parsons on the field on the flip side if you want to bet uh the packers to beat the chiefs it's it's even better obviously it's 110 110 to 1 odds to bet the packers to beat the chiefs so Two really, to me, great value, easy bets. If I'm going to keep piggybacking off of that Green Bay futures that I'm making, you can get Golden, who, you know, right now he's fighting Watson for receptions right now on the Green Bay Packers. We've seen Watson be the type of guy that misses games, tends to miss games, right? And Golden was their first-round pick Green Bay not even a year ago. He right now is tied with Watson for receiving. I think they both have almost 500 yards receiving. You can get Golden at 40 to 1. to lead the league in receiving yards. So right now, Jason's way ahead of everyone. Jason's like 200 yards ahead of the next closest person, I think, or 150 yards. Golden, though, is only 200 yards basically behind him, which sounds like a lot, but it's also one of these things where I feel like the year goes along. We've talked about it. I feel like Seattle is going to have to become more run-focused. They can't keep letting Sam Darnold sling the ball. On the flip side, like I talked about, where Golden– I think he'll become really their number one guy if Watson has any type of state injury for Green Bay. So that was just another market I played. Same state in that division. KOC right now is plus 650 to be coach of the year. And that one jumped out to me. I know it's always about the new toy, and it's easy to reflect that in the betting market, right, where these new coaches usually get the bumps that, you know, Todd Munkin, if you mix up Browns as a playoff team, Todd Monk is a new coach this year, probably going to lean towards him. So he's right now is like the odds on favorite V coach of the year. But KFC is undefeated on another year with a new quarterback. It's hard not to put a lot of respect on what he's held together with that Vikings team. And what we view as one of the tougher divisions of football right now and the NFC North. So I just, I couldn't believe it was plus 650 plus 700, a bunch of different shops. That one also jumped up to me right away of, okay, I'm missing something on the futures market. Cause I didn't really understand that one where Shanahan's plus three 50 to be the coach of the year. Once again, makes sense, right? Tons of injuries also undefeated right after he was a Munkin and then it's Ben Johnson. So all those guys, it feels like interchangeable that if, you know, KOC wins the division and as the one seed with the Vikings, that feels like a really good value to take him at plus 600 plus 700 right now. So, I wish I had more futures, but I was just looking into it. I don't want to tie people's money up too much because I already have so much tied up from the summer. Super Bowl-wise, I'm having a tough time with it, people. Honestly, I look at the AFC and the NFC and it's just like, AFC, if it's not the Chiefs, who? Every team has weaknesses. Am I really going to bank that this is the final of the year? Josh Allen with no defense can overcome Mahomes. Is this really the year that you know, we've seen it time and time again, this Rams team, can they turn it around? I don't know. I'd rather have faith in the 49ers in Seattle, which I've already invested in. So to me, I wish I had more to give out people. I just, I'm looking at the futures market and it's just, there's nothing in the NFC that's really enticing me other than Green Bay right now.
00:07:45
Speaker 1: All right. I don't disagree at all. Green Bay has really been the pivot point, I think. In these conversations, the third end of the season, how do you manage Green Bay? Is it on their futures? Is it on matchups? You and I love matchups. We love exact outcome bets. We made a ton of them. Green Bay was one of the teams we just didn't invest in. So time to take a little taste. Just add it to the portfolio. Why not? We're building a portfolio here. Listen, every week we discuss our picks on Tuesday. Every week by Thursday, Simon has gotten an earful from his professional betting colleagues, what they like, what they hate, where they think I'm totally right. Are they going to bully us? It's time for Shark Calls.
00:08:31
Speaker 2: Who's there? I'm talking. Yeah, a lot to love this week, Chad. I feel like we got plenty of love for our Falcons take, right? Falcons plus three and a half.
00:08:47
Speaker 1: Definitely. That number has flown like a falcon.
00:08:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. And that's not just because obviously our show Huge, huge amount of listeners betting this number, but just different pro groups I talked to hammering this one. Same goes for our love with the Bucs, right? The Bucs were plus three and a half, another line that's just been getting absolutely hammered. So those two jumped out right away. I got a bunch of love, a bunch of phone calls about that one. Another game we love, Miami Jets. Tons of love on Miami. Tons of love on a game we gave out that the numbers moved. I think it more has to do with Lamar being hurt, but we love Cincy. It was kind of easy, bended at plus three. Still could have got it at plus two. Now it's flipped to minus one and a half. That's another one where even if Lamar was back, it felt like it was still a little too high for a guy coming off an injury that, you know, hamstrings, whatever it is going on with Lamar, he needs to use his legs. So got plenty of calls about that, that we should have been not hammering that one harder, but we should have been more aggressive, giving that one out at plus two and a half. But I said, bet this number. We have no idea if Lamar is going to play. So I don't know much more we could have done with that one. um for your for games that we didn't really talk much about green bay i've heard a bunch of calls about guys loving green bay against detroit which a divisional game plus three i get it i totally get it where you've seen green bay's defense look really good on the flip side you've seen nothing nothing from detroit to think they can get stopped so um Yeah, that's an interesting game just because it is a Detroit team that, you know, I just don't think pros are buying right now. We're on the flip side of Green Bay. They've been really good, the professional bettors. I mean, every week, the pros have been betting them, and for the most part, they've been cashing them for them. So that's a game maybe I have a little bit of a blind spot to. I really haven't thought much about it. Denver, tons of calls from pros about Denver. Another game I don't really see. Another game I don't really love that if I can avoid, I will. I think... a game we've both agreed that we don't really understand that. I know a lot of pros love is Tennessee against the Browns. It's just pretty much a fade on this Browns team. That's been super consistent, but they wouldn't have fourth quarters where to me, isn't that the cheat code with the Browns? It's so that's when I don't really get why the pros are hammering that one so much. It's actually, we even talked about everything going on in Tennessee locker room. I mean, there's just so much drama. Yeah. We can dive more into that one, but, um, bunch of hate that we didn't really they're like you guys should know better you should be all in on that one it's just like should we or is that just another pro trap Houston another game or a little lukewarm on tons of calls about that it was nine and a half JJ McCarthy has announced as a starter ran up to ten and a half now so another game I don't have to deal with where every instinct in my body is telling me to hammer this Giants team plus ten and a half and I'm trying not to because I think we know when these pros are calling about it it's usually a trap line and you know the last one the the biggest talk of the town, the Seattle Kansas city game, Chad, and we're the suckers. We're, we're the public. We're over the chiefs and I'm even more dug in than I ever been before. So this is totally, this is totally a game where I, I, I'm getting tons of hate, tons of calls about it. And I'm, I'm excited for us to break down much more because it's very small amount of groups like me on the chiefs and a lot of really heavily smart groups influenced taking the Seattle side. So, um, I'm excited to dive more into that one because it's so much lazy talk of you're really going to bet Seattle to go lose three straight games and Seattle's defense will lose at home. So, yeah, I'm excited to talk more about that game.
00:12:23
Speaker 1: I cannot wait to talk about that game. I think it's the pivot game on the board, to be honest. And I love when you and I are aligned and we happen to be aligned against the entire professional betting community. I want to start with that Giants-Houston game. Because when we talked about it on Tuesday, I didn't understand the move then that it went from nine and a half to 10 and was trending towards 10 and a half. McCarthy gets announced and it's immediately at 10 and a half. Faves of six plus, thanks to Evan Abrams from Action, 8-18-1 this year against the spread. It just feels like, what are we missing? why are we still, and I don't want to invest in the Giants. And to be honest, I haven't invested in the Giants just because I know all of this movement on Houston is coming from professionals. Like the public is on the Giants right now. But what am I missing that I'm so caught up with the public and you seem to be too, that the wise guys are just like, screw it. This Texas team is on the rise. We're not back in a Giants team just because they backdoored against the Saints. Like or just because they came back against the saints. Like, are we idiots?
00:13:45
Speaker 2: I will say this. I know plenty of people who chase steam. They'll listen to the show and they, they follow where the money goes. And I always say, be weary of it. Cause you don't know what guys are doing, right? Cause I'm got, sometimes guys move markets to get better numbers on teams. They like, and they're giving you a head fake. So it's always, you have to always be careful. And that's simply true, especially Sunday morning. If you're, If you're chasing numbers that move at 1230 noon, you're never going to win long term. You can never, ever, ever try to time the market and chase the market right before kickoff because that's the ultimate fake time. Like there's so many guys I know that move numbers right before kick just so they can take a five figure, six figure position on the other side, 10 minutes before kickoff. So, yeah, to me, this is a line that if we don't get it, neither of us understand it. more often than not, you should simply bet the Texans here, right? You should trust and respect these guys who do know a lot more than us and spend millions of dollars on models and getting information from different teams, and you should trust that stuff. But this week is really tough where a lot of these games are drawn lines in the sand, right? Like so many pros are taking heavy positions on this game, taking heavy positions on what we talked about, the Tennessee game, taking heavy positions on Seattle where it's like, You know, these groups don't bet these things lightly. And we talk all the time. You have so many other options. I don't know why they heavily focus on certain games. But on an edge, you want to hone in on that edge. You do hammer it. And, you know, the edge here really is J.J. McCarthy. We've seen him multiple times. This guy be game to game. High lows, turnovers, all that. You have a Texas defense that, yeah, they're dying here to play a bad team. But my biggest hesitation is what me and Chad have talked about these years. Teams playing in England, coming back, and then playing a game. We've just seen it. The fall off in the second half, it's a real thing. I mean, you just, you know, we can go through the trends and these teams. It's basically guaranteed if you have fake teams coming back from England, lifetime, long-term, you'd be up. And we've seen it play out so far this year where the rest disparity has mattered. That's my biggest stopping point here. That's why I'm not investing in this game. I think I'm the same as you, where it's just, All right, I'll just avoid it. Maybe I'll throw the Giants in a teaser, even a seven-point teaser. Now you've got them up to 17.5 points. If this was a regular scheduled game where they're coming off a road game in New Orleans or another home game in Houston, sure, doesn't matter any of that stuff. But the fact that they're coming off a 10-hour, 11-hour flight to get from England back to Texas, and then your body has to get used to that, and then you're not practicing until, what, Wednesday or Thursday? And then all of a sudden you have this game against the Giants on Sunday.
00:16:24
Speaker 1: It's just– It's double-digit favorites.
00:16:27
Speaker 2: Double-digit favorites. So, yeah, this is definitely a game where I think we both have a blind spot to it. Just the Giants feel so easy and the public at back are setting them up where it's like all the money, all the bets right now are on the Giants despite this number moving the other way. All right.
00:16:41
Speaker 1: San Francisco and Atlanta, you mentioned it. I just want to bring it up briefly.
00:16:45
Speaker 2: Okay.
00:16:46
Speaker 1: The line has moved through three. It's down to Atlanta plus two and a half. This was Chad's choice at three and a half. That was the good news. It moved in our direction. Majority of tickets are on the Niners. All the money is on the Falcons. So this is clearly a pros-Joes game. The real question becomes, do we back off at two and a half?
00:17:08
Speaker 2: If someone hasn't bet it at all yet, Yeah, like you're.
00:17:12
Speaker 1: Not taking Atlanta under three.
00:17:14
Speaker 2: No, no, no, no. Yeah, don't chase that polymarket. Because there's other shops where you can get the three. Where polymarket, they don't do threes. They only do halves. Right. Yeah, you could take two and a half. But like we always say, you're protecting yourself against the unknown. It doesn't matter if you're the greatest model in the world. There's so much flukish stuff. You always want to get the best number, obviously. And you always want to protect against that field goal. Like it just– I'd say all the time two and a half has become a very key number, but why would you grab it when threes are available? That's, that's, that's my issue here. So yeah, a line we were way ahead of. We gave it all the reasons why you should be loving the Falcons here. Not just because how good their offense has been. And we expect Pennix to play better, especially compared to what he played in his last game. But I look at this matchup here and I, I just think this 49ers team, we faded them last week on the simple fact that it was too many points. Without the injuries, it made more sense, the points. And now you factor in the fact that Mike Evans, who's been everything to that offense, especially on third downs. I mean, you just look at Brock Purdy's splits on third down. Now Kittle, obviously he helps mitigate some of that. But it really has been the Mike Evans show this season. Like quietly, people don't realize how– you know, important. He's been to that team. Everyone always thinks McCaffrey offensively, it's been pretty one. And the number two, it's been Mike Evans. Like he just has been huge for them on third and go situation. So he's out most likely in this game. I think that's part of the movement here. I think most books and most guys making models have him at worth over half a point. Some guys have a full point, which is crazy to think for a receiver like Mike Evans. So To me, it's another unavoidable. As soon as the number popped, me and you both loved it. I don't know if we talked about it Sunday night, but it was right away a game I bet. We both loved it Tuesday. Unfortunately, it's moved. I wish it had stayed at three, three and a half so more people that listen to the show could have got it. Just another number where we're going to have a tough choice to make in contests. It's probably going to be two and a half. That's going to be a tough choice. I would still bet it if we had two in contests because it's one of the heavier bet games I have this week. I'm more than excited to cheer for it, but Yeah. Unfortunately, it's moved so much. Now we have a real tough decision to make on that game.
00:19:34
Speaker 1: I also apologize for the phone ringing in the background. My mother-in-law might be one of the last people in the world with a landline and she gets calls 17 times a day. She doesn't answer it. She's not here right now. Doesn't ever answer it. And it's always somebody calling to sell something.
00:19:53
Speaker 2: You know, you can unplug, you can unplug those landlines, right? Yeah.
00:19:56
Speaker 1: I completely forgot before we came on the air to unplug the phone. I just forgot about it. My bad. Listen, we show, we show the show warts and all here. Speaking of a number that is still a little bit of value, Tampa Bay at Carolina, Tampa Bay plus three. This was Simon Says at three and a half. The wise guys still love it. Look, this might be a game where we have no choice but to put it in because we're going to be getting the hook in the contest, hopefully. But as much as we love Carolina and think they're ascendant, we're not really ready to bet Bryce Young as a field goal or more favorite in a division game as a favorite.
00:20:41
Speaker 2: Exactly. Keep it simple, guys. You're asking Bryce Young to blow a team out in his own division. I don't think we're at that stage yet with Bryce Young, with this Carolina Panthers team. And as good as they looked last week, we've seen this team being up and down team for the past two years, right? They look good one week. They win. They play really well offensively. The next week, they kind of sputter and lay eggs. And you've seen this Bucs team As much hate as I was giving Todd Bowles because their defense was so atrocious to start the season, they've been better the last three weeks. They have improved, and they have gotten better. And even, you know, say what you want, against Green Bay, they played pretty well defensively. Against the Cowboys, obviously, they played pretty well. So this really does come down to the number, once again, where it's just there's two and a half to open the week. Me and Chad would have happily sold you on the Panthers. Like, okay, getting Bryce under a field goal at home. So now– If you want to go to Polymark and take that number, I'm not going to fight you on it. But to me, the best spot, the best position you want to be on is a Bucs team at plus three, plus three and a half after a loss and a situation where, yes, they have a rookie quarterback, but the rest of the team are a lot of veterans. And any team that's one of four is going to be very desperate, especially compared to a team that's three and two above 500, maybe feeling themselves after a win against Philadelphia on the road. So, A lot of mental stuff to go into this one, and I just look at the numbers as well where it's just always felt like the value was going to be there. It's nice to hear the pros coming in with us because I'm not going to lie. I was hesitant where it's just like this exact time the pros might be jumping off the books because they got burned so bad last week against Pittsburgh where, you know, some pros are like that where they get burned by a team that goes, okay, my model obviously overrated this team. It's time to jump off it. Like they got me with Cowboys. I should have taken that money and walked away and not try to go again against Pittsburgh. No, I have not heard that this week. I've basically heard guys dug in where it's like they feel like Pittsburgh got very lucky. This Bucs team is still underrated, much better than people perceive. So I still think we're getting a good number here on this Bucs team that, you know, if they beat Pittsburgh, probably is, probably would open minus two and a half, probably would open minus two on the Panthers. So, you know, we always want to look for that free extra half point, extra point of value, and that's what we're getting here on this Bucs team.
00:22:54
Speaker 1: The game that has caused the most controversy, other than Kansas City and Seattle, Cleveland visiting Tennessee. Tennessee is a one and a half point home underdog, which means the Browns are one and a half point road favorites at four and two in first place in the division. Latest in the season in 12 years for the Browns. The massive discrepancy between betting tickets and money. No bigger difference than this game this week. All the money on the Titans. Wise guys plowing money into the Titans tonight. Are we adults? I mean, how many times have you said to me, can we be grownups? Can we not bet on the Titans? Are we going to be grownups? Are we going to be bullied? What are we doing here?
00:23:44
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's a spot though, where I had to bet Tennessee or I can't, I can't bet anything else. Like I can't, I can't bet the Browns and I can't tell people here to bet the Browns. And I totally get though, why the public is their perception is the Browns here where You say all the time, right? The public are dumb, but they do win 35%, 40% of the time. So, couldn't this be one of those spots? Yeah. Like, this is... It's too good to be true, and that's our biggest issue here. Like, I can't believe I'm getting under two with this Browns team that, across the board, we think are much better. In Tennessee, all the trends. Like, I talk all the time about these guys I hear from who are hardcore trend bettors. This was, like, my biggest call-up about guys where it's just, like, there's a ton of trends that love Tennessee here, but the biggest one that jumps out is They're 0-12, their last 12 after a straight-up win. Like this is just– ever since Vrabel left, this has just been a train wreck of an organization. And can they turn it around here? Sure. But I talk all the time. These to me are playoff lines where the books are saying, I don't think you're a playoff team, Browns. And the Browns, if they win this game, they're saying to the books, we are. You need to adjust your models. Like that's why I love these type of games because that's literally what this line is. It's like, okay, you're a legit above a 500 team. go to Tennessee after a big divisional win at home and win this game against a bad Tennessee team. The Browns choke on this spot 80% of the time. I mean, we just, we have the data to back it up where the Browns always have these letdown games after huge divisional games, let alone a divisional game. You won on a last second field goal. So there's tons and tons of hate on the Brown side where Tennessee, I know it feels like, you know, there might be really high in themselves and the Tennessee team, but, You look at the underlying numbers. They have to know. Salah has to know they got away with it. They had 160 yards of total offense, a bunch of turnovers. I mean, me and Chad alluded to it. You have a guy get in an argument with a player on his team and go in and retrieve a handgun from his car, whatever it may be, some type of weapon. No, it was a handgun. That's what it was. Yeah, Salah, a ton of respect to him where he tried to give a ton of good grace to this guy. But at the end of the day, this guy's one mistake was he went to go retrieve a gun to go murder someone. I don't know if you can say.
00:25:57
Speaker 1: This guy's a good man. We don't know if he was going to murder someone. All we know is that he went to get a gun and that is a violation of team rules. And then Robert Sala said, hey, I like him, but he can't be on the team when you're going to get a gun.
00:26:11
Speaker 2: Yes. And whether you're going to get a gun to threaten someone or actually kill someone, the law, judge and jury looks at it.
00:26:18
Speaker 1: It's not on your side.
00:26:19
Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. So He's very lucky that he's an NFL player and they're letting him, no charges being pressed. The worst thing that happened, he's lost his job. But how does that not affect the team? That's another big policy for me where it's like, oh my God, you have a terrible team now with all this off-field drama this week. Now maybe these guys are rather behind solid being like, oh man, this guy has my back. Like this guy on our team went to go get a handgun. This guy's still praising him saying, if any team calls me about this player, I will sell you on him. Why he should be on your team. Why he's one of the best D tackles on football. So, That could be a rallying point here, but that whole situation is throwing me for a loop with this one where I thought I was going to come here today and be like, no, me and Chad have to bet Tennessee. This has to be in our contest. Now I'm just like, like Chad said, is there an adult in the room? Can we avoid this game? Because, my God, we have to take Tennessee, and I just do not want to in any way.
00:27:08
Speaker 1: I'm glad we're talking about it. I'm glad we're working through the process. You and I are on the same page. Maybe we take a little piece of Tennessee. this cannot be in the contest. We cannot fall prey on either. If we put in picks after the show and then reevaluate on Sunday or lock in on Sunday, like let's be grownups. Let's do a solid to our audience. Let's not make people tail Tennessee. If they're following our picks on Sunday, or by the way, maybe they want us to take Tennessee because they can continue to move ahead of us in the contest. Simon, it's time for our poly market, Brass Balls Trade of the Week. And our Brass Balls Trade of the Week presented by Polymarket is the Miami Dolphins trading at four and a half at 52% on Polymarket.
00:28:04
Speaker 2: You know what it takes? It takes brass balls.
00:28:10
Speaker 1: Listen, there's no avoiding it. We've been talking about it all week. Like it's ugly. The move indicates what the professionals are doing. Other than number, other than the side, other than knowing it's the trade to make, is there anything on the field that gives us confidence that Miami is in a position to execute for us?
00:28:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, confidence is a tricky word when it comes to this Miami team, Chad. This is a team that I think we all project out to not win a game this year, but I view this as this is the one time they could win. There's only going to be one or two opportunities this whole entire season for Miami to steal a game and win. This feels like it. They're just evenly matched. I know it doesn't feel that way to the general public because Miami is just so openly tanking. But this Jets team, as much love as people are giving this year, I still have major questions about them. And, you know, the one benefit I'll give to them is the Jets, they look like they've drafted really well the last two years. Like they have a couple of guys they've drafted these past two years that look much better than we perceive. And in the Jets, you're back and coming off back to back covers. Right. They covered obviously at home. against Cleveland as a minus-two-and-a-half-point favorite. And then they covered last week on a backdoor field goal as a seven-and-a-half-point dog. I know why the public is backing this Jets team, right? And then to the flip side, it's why there's so many pros loving this Miami team, where it's just like, okay, everyone's kind of leaving this team for dead. You know, to start the year, obviously, they started with three non-covers. Got a cover against Minnesota because a guy laid down. right before he scored a touchdown. They just totally don't believe in this team, which I totally get. We're getting another free point, point and a half in a divisional game that we expect to be close. Like, it just doesn't matter whether these teams are good or bad. They tend to play close against each other, and it just so happens they're both bad. I mean, you can't, you can lie to yourself as a Jets fan and say they're better than they were last year, I'm telling you, look at underlying numbers. They've drafted better, so there's little improvements, but overall, they're not that much better of a team, and I just think that's too many points to be given Aaron Glenn and this Jets offense, so who knows if it's one of our fives. It's a tough week to get one of our fives, but this might be the fifth one in. We were going to have a bunch of back and forths about that last one in. This could make it. I want to give this out right now because this feels a little bit like Atlanta and what we gave out with the Bucs, where this could be moving. Could be three and a half come game kickoff, so That was the real reason we're trying to think of. It's a ballsy bet you want to get before the market moves, and at four and a half, that's good value here on PolyMarket.
00:30:37
Speaker 1: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called PolyMarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in, and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But PolyMarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all in PolyMarket. is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. Now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today and sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP. to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Indianapolis Colts at the Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota's a six and a half point favorite here. This is a rare wise guy favorite. Everyone continues to love Minnesota. You can see it in the metrics. The money is coming in on the Vikings. I'm a little surprised the number hasn't gotten to seven yet, The question for us is, are we confident enough on the Vikings at six and a half coming off the bye? Is their offense improving? Are we starting to see Kyler get into the KOC mindset? Having missed the first couple of games, they started to play really well offensively in their last game. Do we back the Vikings as favorites? Does this make it in? Are we with the wise guys on this?
00:32:29
Speaker 2: Yeah. My initial reaction was right away. Take the cold, especially with all these points. But we talked a little bit last show. I just, I knew the more I dove into this Vikings team, it was going to kind of favorite them in the sense that Florida's defense is exact type of defense that gives me huge problems to especially a quarterback like Daniel Jones. So I told you the stuff I can find the silver lining. If you're backing this cold side is, you know, if you have Jonathan Taylor run for 150, you're going to win this game. Like that's, that to me is where the matchup is going to come into play where if they can run the ball and neutralize the blitz, you could run against the blitz. You'll win that game. Cause I just don't think they can pass against. I don't think Daniel Jones is good enough. And Keenan Allen, the weapons on the outside without Warren, especially it's just not there. So this is another game where Tyler Warren's out and we come in Sunday morning. Once again, we can't find a fifth and you're very high on the Vikings. I'm not going to fight you on it. Like I, I had an initial bet on the Colts at plus six. I have not bet anything else into this game. And, the more it's going along here, you know, we, we talked about avoiding Tennessee. If you want to put Tennessee up to seven and a half and put the Vikings at a pick, that's a nice teaser. If you want to take, you know, the chiefs up to nine and a half or eight and a half and put the Vikings down to a pick, it's a nice teaser. So that's, that's where I'm viewing this one where it's like, man, I can't, I can't, I'm trying to align myself and take this many points with Kyler Murray and I cannot do it. That's, that's the holdup here. It's just, My biggest holdup is Kyler. My, all my faith right now is the Vikings defense where this just feels like such a great matchup of floors in this defense, especially with Chad to set coming off a bi-week extra preparation time going against this Colts team and the Steichen. So yeah, it's unfortunate. It's like, I thought the pros would be all over the Colts, but Chad said, it's like the pros, I mean, it's split. It's not really heavy Minnesota, but it's way more pros on Minnesota than they are on the Colts. And I'm not, not surprising to see this number go up without that respect being paid to him. So, Yeah, another game I'm having a tough time with because it's like my instincts are telling me, you should be taking the Colts here. This is the Colts' time. But the more you break it down and look into it, it's like, actually, this Vikings team, there might be a really legit 5-0 team. That might be a little underrated in my mindset.
00:34:40
Speaker 1: Simon, I don't know if it's you and I having done this show together for so long that we are drifting into the same pattern of thinking or if just– We're looking at some of these teams that are really bad and we see that Dolphins value, but the Colts are going in a different direction between Cass in the front office, Daniel Jones not being where he should be. Are they being overvalued still because of who they have been? Because I came around to the Vikings too. I wanted to be in the Colts all week. I want to believe in the Colts. I bet the Colts last week against Tennessee. If I hadn't been kicked out of my survivor, I would have had him in my survivor. So to me, getting on the Vikings is a little bit of a surprise and a little bit of a change in my mindset. It'll be interesting if we ultimately end up having to put this team into the contest.
00:35:42
Speaker 2: Now, real quick, obviously, you've been in media a lot longer than me. How does it work where these reporters are– I don't want to call them mouthpiece, but why do they love this guy Ballard?
00:35:55
Speaker 1: I don't know.
00:35:55
Speaker 2: Why are they making excuses for this man? I mean, the amount of people I've said that were like, if only it had worked out with Andrew Luck. Do people not realize he had total control of that offensive line and he's part of the reason why Andrew Luck is no longer in football and he retired? The amount of grace a man has been given who never won a division in 10 years– very bizarre to see the media come out and just talk about how good of a guy he is.
00:36:19
Speaker 1: So here's my take.
00:36:20
Speaker 2: All this stuff on Ballard.
00:36:22
Speaker 1: I do think that he was managing a pretty challenging ownership situation in Jim Irsay, number one. Number two, by all accounts, and I don't know him personally, but I do keep up with what happens in Indiana. I just have a lot of friendships there and connections there. And so I keep up with what happens in media in Indianapolis. He is a lovely guy who did a ton in the community and that's gonna get you some goodwill. And at the end of the day, like if you're accessible and you're explaining your process and you're giving people insight into how you make decisions, that gives you the benefit of the doubt, whether that's on purpose or whether it's inadvertent, it is what happens. Like if you're able as a media person to translate what a decision maker is thinking and how they're going through their decision making process, that makes you a little more sympathetic and helps you understand a little bit better as you are translating it for the public who they are and what they're doing. Sometimes that can be construed as people being sympathetic. I am seeing people popping up like you and other people locally being like, why have we been giving this guy the benefit of the doubt the whole time? He's never done anything. But those are some of the reasons why. Don't disagree. The product in the field has been inconsistently subpar compared to the level of attention and expectation that people have been ascribing to this team. A hundred percent.
00:37:54
Speaker 2: Yeah. And just put a bone. I just, there's so many good GMs out there actually win that don't get the love and praise in the media. Like this guy did. Like I just, Even if you're saying he's a good, nice guy, there's so many videos I could point to of him in the draft mocking other teams and laughing about how smart his draft picks were and stuff like that, where it's like, dude, you do not have the track record. You have nothing. You have nothing to back this up. So that jumped off me right away, where you had people going to bat for him right away, where it's like, he'll pop up somewhere else. He'll get another job. This is a great man, a great GM. It's like, great GM? What in the world are we doing now? So, yeah, like you said, it's a lot of turmoil behind the scenes right now in the Colts.
00:38:36
Speaker 1: For the late afternoon games, we had a trio of games on Tuesday. We did not understand the number. Interested in getting some sharp call feedback. We got some of it. Denver, Arizona. This line is starting to move to four in a couple places. I've just been surprised, and you mentioned it, by the Denver love from professionals. Bo Nix has not been scrambling. He's been a subpar quarterback. The Cardinals have been a much more competitive, fiery team. They look like they want to play and they want to play hard. The Broncos look like they're hanging on to every game by their fingernails. Sometimes they are. Why are people backing a bad, a Bo Nix who's not playing well generally and plays badly on the road? Why would anybody be backing the Broncos here? You and I have been wanting to be on the Cardinals. I was hoping sharp calls would be like, yeah, take the Cardinals. We're seeing money move the line to the Cardinals direction, but I kind of wanted to hear a consensus and we're not getting that.
00:39:38
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's been funny though. I, I, the calls I got were just about how we're, we're really missing this one here on Denver and that we should be all over Denver. And this is just the exact type of game a team gets right in the NFL, right? If, Like I said, all these weeks you see here, people, it's really telling by the books where they're like, okay, we still think Denver's a playoff team and a really good team. We do not think the Cardinals are a playoff team and a really good team. That's what this line reflecting. Our public perception is Cardinals just beat the Rams. They're such a good team. We're both being sucked into that. Are we not giving enough respect to the Broncos just beating Seattle at home? And now they've extended rest. They're going to play against a bad corner. I mean, we've talked about it. The Broncos have played a juggernaut of a schedule to start the season.
00:40:17
Speaker 1: Yes, that's true.
00:40:19
Speaker 2: That might be what's messing with us right now is just we've seen Denver. All right, obviously Chargers are not a juggernaut, but that's a divisional game on the road. I told you that was his scheduled loss for Denver coming into the year. That number, I believe the Chargers were minus 2.5 to look ahead in the summer, and Denver closed up minus 3.5. And, oh, my God, all the pro money was on the Chargers. We obviously took the Denver side, and we felt like we got lucky. But at the same time, that's been the story all year with the Chargers. They've been blowing these games where Denver, okay, they got away with one there, but if you look at their schedule, they beat Jacksonville. They beat the Rams. They lost to the 49ers, but me and you talked about that game. That game flipped after that muffed punt. Like, Denver was getting the ball back with a chance to take a lead in that game. Muffed the punt. The 49ers just rolled them from that point forward. So, I think we're just underrating the Denver too much because they were so good last year and we expected to look one way with Bo and Nick. So, This is a game where I think maybe come Sunday I can talk you into the Denver side, but I get it where you're sitting here right now. It's too fresh, too new. Where I'm like you, I took a lot of calls and a lot of beating for me to be like, oh, my God. I see what these people are saying. I see why Denver is the right side. We're a little too overrated on the Cardinals. And then we're both just hurting from last week where it's like we were all over the Cardinals. We missed it. We're missing again this week with the Cardinals. And I just– I don't see it where I can see Denver's defense getting stops and offensively. I really like this matchup, honestly, for Denver's offense. So, yeah, pretty, pretty interesting where this is a get right spot technically by the sports books. And like Chad said, this is four and a half, a lot of shops. There's a couple of books I've already popped up before. So a game I can be patient. If there are pros on Arizona side, like me and Chad were early in the week, maybe this does get bumped down to three and a half. So I'll be patient here. But yeah, another game where I'm either on Denver or nothing. It's, it's kind of weird.
00:42:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe you're right. There could be some lingering, God, I can't believe we were so stupid about the Cardinals last week when we had it in our fingers and it slipped through. Maybe we're outsmarting ourselves. Maybe we're saying we know more. We're blind to Denver's failings or Denver's potential success because of the schedule. All very good points. I think we're talking ourselves in circles here. Who knows? Green Bay at Detroit. Detroit off a buy. Brian Branch, Detroit safety, will play in the first game since tearing his Achilles last year. Expectation is he'll play 80% of the snaps, definitely third downs, definitely passing situations. This is a wild one. All the data, all the love showing that it's going in the Packers' direction. Some of the money. But some group is definitely hammering the Lions because this line has moved from three, three and a half in some places. It's juiced to three and a half if it's still at three. I'm on the Lions already. I bet the Lions, I think at minus three. I get why people like the Packers, but I feel like this is a trap spot for a team that we've already talked about. We got to bet the Packers futures. I get it. Long-term, I like them. This doesn't feel like a great spot to me.
00:43:36
Speaker 2: Totally agree. I don't get it. I get, I got why pros are betting at plus three and a half on the Packers, but at minus three, especially minus two and a half, it probably markets like, yeah, to me, it's a lion's better than nothing at all. It's just, we have to sell Green Bay at some point. Like we just talked about, they did. They're coming off incredible wins. You could say, you know, that defense, it was a little fluky against Dallas. They had things really break their way, but when I went back and watched the film, I just think it was an amazing game plan by Gannon. Like, he just really– obviously, he faced Dak multiple times being on the Eagles team. And, you know, their offense is going to change a little bit from Schottenheimer to– from McVay or McCarthy. But I just– I couldn't believe how good Green Bay's defense was in that matchup, especially the secondary-wise. And that, to me, I told you what the pros are banking on here, which is just both these units have elite offenses– One team has a defense that's shown up this year where you cannot say the same for Detroit. Detroit's defense, you know, the least amount of points they gave up this year, Chad, was the week before their bye week, which was 21 points to the Cardinals. So, I mean, that's all you need to know about this Detroit team. I mean, they gave up 24 points to the Jets. I mean, they just, they're a terrible, terrible defense. And that's my pause here, where it's just, I get why We're hesitant to back Green Bay, but a three and a half, I totally get why pros are hammering that side. It's just with that hook, with the suspect defense you have in the Lions, you just always feel like you have a chance. But I think we're on the same page of we think Green Bay is due for a letdown game on the flip side. You have a well-rested Lions team that, you know, should take care of business in this home spot. So, yeah, just another game I can't get a read on, honestly. Like, if you're more heavily opinionated and you're slamming the table with the Detroit Lions Sunday morning, I'm not going to fight you on that. Just I have not bet invested in this game heavily.
00:45:33
Speaker 1: My fear is that the Lions going to stay at three and a half. It's a three and a half in the contest right now. That's not where you want to bet the Lions. The one thing I'll say about the Packers defense, the Cowboys barely ran the ball. They had 15 rushing attempts. Look back at what Bijan Robinson and the Falcons did against the Packers. Can Jameer Gibbs do that against the Packers? Gannon got a little bit bailed out by the fact that Brian Schottenheimer just decided not to run the ball on that defense anymore. apologize if everyone's hearing the sirens. It's the sirens calling us to bet on the Detroit Lions. The Los Angeles Rams visiting the Las Vegas Raiders. Dude, this number has moved big, down to three and a half. So listen, we love the luck rankings from Nick Giffen over at Action Network. The Rams this season are one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL. Are they just undisciplined? Are they a bad football team? The number was at five and a half. It's moved a full two points, not yet through a key number, but it's getting close to three. I've been wanting to bet the Rams all week. Am I misguided? Am I seeing something that isn't there? Am I just thinking I want to get off the Raiders bandwagon because we've been winning with them so much and it feels like now the public is all over the Raiders because of how they covered against the Buffalo Bills last week. Where's your head?
00:47:01
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like you. I'm dug in on the Raiders, and I never understood this line, and it makes me happy to see it going to three and a half.
00:47:07
Speaker 1: You're dug in on the Raiders, whereas I want to be on the Rams.
00:47:10
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah. And it's nice to see, though, it's going to three and a half, because at least I'm not alone, where it's never good to be all on the public side, and it's nice to see there's other pros with me. Didn't really get many calls about it, honestly. Like, it's just another game where I think a lot of guys the same view as you. It's like, Is this not the time to jump off this Raiders train? And my whole view of it is the books still are accounting for how bad this Rams team is, the morality of this team, and then the injuries. The injuries cannot be understated enough. This is a team that they went, I mean, if we're talking fantasy football, like you're talking fantasy football, you basically, people have drafts where they go boom or bust, right? If you do an auction draft, you spend all your money on three or four players and you fill the rest of your team out with just scrubs. Is that not what the Rams roster is? Like they're a team that totally went boom or bust. They don't have some rookie on some, you know, some quarterback on a rookie contract. They have a really expensive quarterback to, you know, really expensive defensive pieces in Aaron Donald, Miles Garrett, which are giving you a zero per game. Like Aaron Donald, I give out those stats on, he has two, two solo tackles, I believe. And that's it. Now you did have a sack taken away in a penalty, but I'm just saying like Aaron, Aaron Donald is not who Aaron Donald used to be. They don't even have miles. Gary on that D line. Now you're down two starting D tackles in that D line. And it just sucks where the Raiders can't run the ball because that's where they take advantage of it. But it's also a big advantage where Kirk, his weakness has always been, which we all know, pressure up the middle. Kirk, he is a true stand in the pocket, on his spot type of quarterback. You're taking that away with the Rams. You don't have any pressure up the middle, let alone on the edges. So I don't know. It just feels like another really bad spot for this Rams team. They're still inflated by public perception. It's just, If you take away their name, in what world are they a four and a half point favorite over a Raiders team that lost by three points to the Chiefs at home and lost three points to the Bills at home? Two better, playing better, more complete teams right now. And our hesitation for me and you is both those covers for us were miracle covers by Kirk Cousins. And that to me is the fear that you have that I have the same fear where that's playing in the back of my head. but maybe that's simply who the Raiders are this year and I'm willing to die on that hill with them and um this is another game where like you said it's tons of respect and money or we're on the Rams they're holding the Rams number up at four and a half some shops are still at five now you're seeing the pro money coming on the Raiders and now they're at three and a half at a couple different shops so Yeah, this is a true tug-of-war between pro groups right now where it's just, are you really buying this Rams team and believing to let down the Raiders team? Or are you on the flip side like me where it's just like, this Rams team is battered mentally and they have so many injuries. This is truly the ultimate test for McVay because McVay has rallied bad teams to be good. How do you rally a team that was supposed to be the team of destiny, right? The odds-on plus 400 favorite to win a Super Bowl. They're just, man. I don't think this is rock bottom yet. That's my whole point. I think it can keep getting worse. So I told you where you're getting come from, Chad. This is usually a spiral. I'd be all over the Rams, but I don't think we have just enough for the injuries. If they were fully healthy, I'd be all over them. But taking away Devontae Smith as well, it's a lot to ask.
00:50:27
Speaker 1: The Raiders have just been much more competitive. They play with more fire. They play with more energy. It's why we backed them against the Bills. I totally get it. I haven't bet the Raiders, so I feel like I've missed the best of the number here. I'd be kicking myself if I bet into him now. I just want this to be the Rams. But sometimes you can't will these things to happen, Simon. Kansas City at Seattle. Another battle between the very lucky Chiefs and the very unlucky Seahawks. You and I, and we talked about this, I'm glad we did it. We've taken a stand on the lucky. and just decided that the Chiefs' luck is really because they are so good. That and betting against Mahomes as a dog, now he has an elite running game. That is a losing proposition. Betting on Sam Darnold when he has to be the primary offensive weapon, that is a losing proposition. The Chiefs are a crazy public dog. The only betting metric that backs us here is Mahomes as the underdog. Otherwise, everything is saying take Seattle. The wise guys are saying take Seattle. The number is moving towards three. There's nothing that's swaying me to get off of the Kansas City Chiefs here.
00:51:53
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's interesting hearing guys why they're taking Seattle, and I totally get the reason, right? If you're just a football guy, we talk all the time about this, where these bettors, they just always go through the trial and tribulation of the football season where you're not going 17-0, right? You are going to lose games. You are going to have bad games. Your offense is going to not show up. And, you know, this year when Mahomes has what you could see a bad game, like Chad said, Kenneth Walker stepped up huge, and they've had those games. And, you know, this is– a Seattle team that they're coming off a brutal loss against the 49ers in which Sam Darnold turned the ball over a bunch. That's why they lost the game. Coming off a brutal loss against Denver, another game where probably would have won it if Sam Darnold didn't turn the ball over. So can they fix those problems? Well, you're going against the Spags defense now, which, you know, Chris Jones shockingly has been bad this year. When you dive into the numbers, like he's not lived up to what they're paying him, especially at his age. He's just, He's looked like he's lost a little bit of a step, but they've drafted so well. They're secondary, despite losing guys. Because of the draft, they look better. Like, you know, they've gotten guys back off scene for agency. It's just Spaggs makes it work defensively. And I keep asking guys, are you just simply playing the spot here with Seattle? Like, you can't– you're telling me to bet Seattle because not just because they're due, because you're riding with the books, which we always talk about. If you take that position with the sports books, let's say long-term winner in Seattle, my fear is it's just another– I hate saying this, but it is true. Is it a fake sharp spot? Which I talked about that Rams against the Bills had a lot of the same vibes where it's just all the money in the world is coming on this home favorite because they're due. That's what everyone kept saying. They're due for a win. The team they're playing against is due for a letdown. Now, there is all these lies and rumors about Josh Allen being hurt. That's partially why that Rams are removed like it did. There's no lies or rumors here on this Chiefs side. This simply is the Chiefs are overrated. They're not as good as people perceive. Seahawks are much better than people perceive they just had a tough schedule here and it's really Sam Darnold losing these games for him why wouldn't Sam Darnold lose this game once again well that's the point like that's what I don't get where people are arguing it's like you don't think Spags knows that you don't think Spags is going to load the box and say hey I'll bring the safety down I'll double JSN beat me one-on-one on the other side with Rashid Shahid or Cooper Cup like that's going to be the easiest game plan for Spags here to take away what they want to do here which is JSN so I know. I don't get this one. I get it. The Chiefs, they had to lose eventually. Say, Sunday, primetime game, all the money in the world, like Chad said, is going to be on the Chiefs team. They're going to be such a huge public dog. I've taken the coward route here, and I've taken Chiefs just in teasers. Plus three, though, when they touch plus three at a couple shops, you know I bet that. Like, okay, we've hit that point now where I have to bet this number. It's a tricky number, so. Yeah, I hate it because we both know we're stepping in it. We hate that. It doesn't feel right taking the Chiefs here, but I'm trying to be dug in on it. It feels like this is still a Seattle line priced on last year, where the Seattle team this year, yes, their defense is still really good, but you have nothing offensively outside of JSN. He is everything, and last year it wasn't like that. They did have Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet. They had a good running game that helped balance that. everything that JSN did. The reason JSN was so open last year was because of that run game. And this year, JSN is not open. It's all being force-fed by Sam Darnold, which works for JSN, but also it leads to a lot of turnovers, which we've seen from Sam Darnold this year. So, yeah, like I talked about, I've had a real tough time this one, and I try to go back to the last time they played. The most recent time they played was in 2022. Totally irrelevant to these teams, right? Different coaching staffs, different quarterbacks. I think Gina Smith was quarterback back then as well. So, every... professional bone in my body saying, you got to take the Seahawks here. But I'm just like, this stinks. This feels like a reverse trap here where they're trying to suck us in to take the Seahawks where I just feel like the Chiefs are the right side, especially at this plus number. So yeah, you have my homestead. I had it. I can't find it on my phone now with him as a dog. But it's basically 10 and 3. I was going to say, it's basically above 65%. So it's just a blind bet you should make.
00:56:07
Speaker 1: There's a difference between.
00:56:11
Speaker 1: A team being due and a team with Patrick Mahomes that has a really good running game and Nick Bolton, who's going to be good for two to three blitzes per game that will completely wreck Sam Darnold at the exact right time. We're just betting on the quality of the players in the field who have proven it again and again and again, executing at the exact right high leverage spots. That's what we're doing. We're not avoiding this in the contest at two and a half. There's no way. We're going to hate it. It's going to be Sunday night. I'm going to have to go to bed. I'm going to have to stay up for this game. I'm not going to like it.
00:56:48
Speaker 2: We'll see. If a certain group calls me up and tells me we cannot play this one, I will listen to that, guys. Right now, I'm like, I am so dug in. I am happy to put the Chiefs in as one of our picks.
00:57:01
Speaker 1: All right. It's time to give our Discord grouper of the week. Simon, you're going to love this one.
00:57:06
Speaker 2: Buy my book. Buy my book. Buy my book.
00:57:11
Speaker 1: You can join the Discord.
00:57:13
Speaker 2: How many we got left, Chad? How many books do we need left?
00:57:16
Speaker 1: We need.
00:57:17
Speaker 2: Like 10,000 sold more? No, no.
00:57:20
Speaker 1: We need about 1,000 to 1,500 more books to be sold.
00:57:25
Speaker 2: Guys, let's do it. I literally have 1,000 books in this back room here. I need someone else to step up and start buying these books.
00:57:33
Speaker 1: We need more. We're not there yet. But I will say, Simon, I appreciate you bringing it up. I've been waiting to unleash a pre-order incentive that I think people are going to love. And I'm going to announce it next week. I just need to finalize some of the legalese. But I think people are really going to enjoy it. It's a really fun one. In the meantime, join the Discord. Pre-order the number at readthenumber.com. You'll get an invite to join the Discord. You're going to help us raise money for St. Jude's, by the way. We won with the Cleveland Browns last week. This week, the winner is Chiefs Vikings teaser. Moving Kansas City up eight and a half, moving Minnesota down to about minus a half. I'll report out the results on Sunday again. Just keep buying the books and I'll stop talking about it. Join, read, or go to readthenumber.com, pre-order the book. Our underdog, round robin.
00:58:33
Speaker 2: My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog.
00:58:39
Speaker 1: I mean, Atlanta's got to be in there, Simon.
00:58:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got to do our Atlanta love, our Bucs love. Bucs are plus 140. Those are two teams we're very high on. Obviously, I had Cincinnati pencil in here as the other dog we're going to put in. That's obviously flipped now. They're minus 122. Yeah, love Chiefs if you want to do them. Plus 124, plus 125, depends on your shop. You want to just do three this week?
00:59:04
Speaker 1: Let's do three. We're not putting Miami in there.
00:59:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was thinking Vegas too. I really like that, obviously. Yeah, that's a really fun one that I know you said at Miami. I'll personally throw that one in. Plus 195.
00:59:18
Speaker 1: You know what? Screw it. Let's put Miami and Vegas in there too. Why not?
00:59:22
Speaker 2: All right, let's do it.
00:59:23
Speaker 1: We live. We're just gambling. Our favorites... Parlay. I think I would put Cincinnati in that one.
00:59:33
Speaker 2: Okay. Yeah, I'll do Cincy. I'd like to talk about Denver. Tons of– a lot of love from a lot of respected guys. We have to put some love into that one. Now, we can skip Minnesota because you said we've already done that in your group or teaser. So we don't need to force that one in. If we're looking for another team we both love that we think is going to win, why don't we take Detroit plus minus 165?
00:59:56
Speaker 1: I was going to say that.
00:59:58
Speaker 2: Yeah. Great.
00:59:59
Speaker 1: Perfect. I want to talk about your biggest bets.
01:00:01
Speaker 2: Pull up those pants and be a man.
01:00:04
Speaker 1: But here was a question from the discord.
01:00:07
Speaker 2: Okay.
01:00:07
Speaker 1: The number.com join the discord. How do you decide what your biggest bets are? What are the factors?
01:00:16
Speaker 2: Oh man, way too much goes into that. I would say every week's different, right? We're, um, Like I always talk about a normal week for me, we'll have two to three big, bigger, bigger bets. So this week I started taking a position Sunday night on the bucks or Atlanta. I will bet all that until the number moves to a spot I'm not comfortable with anymore. So that means for both those teams, it always stops after three. So either sides, I was betting heavily at three and a half, still betting at three stops. Once it gets to two and a half, that's, that's pretty simple for me when it goes with big bets where it's just, I'm investing so much money. I need the best of the number. Like that– I told you that perfect example this past weekend where you can read a game perfectly right and something stupid happens called sports and then you lose that bet. And that's what happened with the Hoosiers last week. Hoosiers, they had to miss a field goal and have a guy walk out of the end zone on a touchdown or step out of bounds on a receiving touchdown. I think the number landed on five. They were a three-and-a-half point dog. If you saw my kickoff, I got to two-and-a-half. That's the type of thing where I've taken my position– And now I totally walk away from once it moves past the three. That's how I'm handling those other two bets this week that are my bigger bets. I could see since he ended up owning my bigger bets, I was really hammering since he had plus three, plus two and a half. Now that it's flipped, Chad knows this is like the scariest position ever to be in as a better. It worked out last week with Caroline. Like I had a bunch of us in Caroline. That number flipped. But that was with a major, major injury with Jalen Hurts where Stu Punley has been a pretty good backup. He's not like Tanner McKee, which I know. Tanner did all right, but Snoop's one game is a backup for the Ravens. So that's another game where I would have bet way more into the Bengals. Numbers flip now. Another one where I'm not really betting much. Those are three games where I bet heavy into. We're sitting here Thursday morning. I probably can't bet any more into those games. So for what's going to happen for me going from this point to Sunday, I'm looking for value. So if I'm really high, like me and Chad are talking about the Chiefs, the Chiefs keep touching three, I'll keep betting into that. That might end up being one of my bigger bets this week. I don't know right now. I just keep taking a taste of it. Yeah, as a city right now, my two biggest bets are going to be Atlanta, the Bucs. I think I'm going to come around more as we get closer to the weekend on Denver. That's just a line that I haven't really bet much into, and I think a lot of pros are on it, and same goes with Detroit. It's a number I haven't really bet much into, and I might bet more into it. But for Sydney right now, you're like, Sam, what are your biggest bets come Sunday, which will you have the most money invested into? I think it's going to be two games me and Chad loved on Tuesday. That's going to be the Atlanta game. It's going to be on that Bucs game, all on the NFC South.
01:02:50
Speaker 1: But it's really about line value and how much you can get down at a particular time and then re-betting that as long as when the line moves, you're still getting the value that you perceive based on your model.
01:03:04
Speaker 2: Yeah. I said it a million times. Everyone listening to this show, you have the power. You can pick your spots. You are in total control. Me and Chad do a show here. We have to get our picks every week. I'm telling you, most pros I know, the best of the best, They'll win big and then just disappear for two or three weeks. They'll take a step back because they know when you're, when you think you're hot and you think you're seeing the board. Well, you could burn yourself that way. Most pros do where if you just are selective, you pick your spots. That's how you win a lot of money longterm. So for me, yeah. Like if there's advantageous spots, I hammer it. And if I think the public's are rating aside and I'm getting great value on the side, obviously I go big. I mean, people remember I was hammering Atlanta when Penix came back. I was like, Oh my God, the market's totally undervalued in this Atlanta team with Penix. I took a very large position on that. Those are the type of bets where after that, I try to relax for a couple of weeks because I'm flush now with money in all these different accounts that are still, you know, I don't withdraw any of these accounts. Like I let that money roll. That's probably the hardest part, right? Is you're trying to navigate, trying to be patient, pick your spots as a professional better where the general public, most of you, you'll win a ton of money on your 1PMs. You'll roll all that into your 4 p.m. bets. And all of a sudden, you go for 3 or 4 p.m., your days are washed. Technically, you might be down. And that's what I try to describe to people. It's like you're in total power, man. If I love the Atlanta Falcons this week and you bet them with us at plus 3.5, you bet 100 on it, and you wake up Sunday morning, you like our Detroit bet, only bet 10 on that. Don't think you need to bet 100 on every game we're giving out here. You need to really pick your spots and what you really like as well. So that's the biggest thing. It's just money management and being patient. 50% of being a sports better, my model, getting information from all these other pro bettors, that's the other half of it. But being disciplined, that really is the key to this whole thing, man. You just, you got to be so disciplined because it's so hard not to get hyped and, you know, I don't want to say smiling on your own, drinking your own Kool-Aid, but that's what it becomes. It's just like, you think you're never going to lose again where it's just, no, you're about to fall on your face literally this next game. And that's, you always have to be wary of.
01:05:07
Speaker 1: I always bet fewer games the week after I've won a lot of money. Like last week, we were on one, right? Four on one in the contest. You know, we nailed the commanders. Like we got the Steelers. We got the Browns. We had the Panthers. I think I've only made three or four bets this whole week. The Falcons, the Bucs. I bet the Bears minus two and a half. Detroit, like really not in Kansas City. I'm biding my time on this one. Sharp versus square, Simon. We both won last week. I had Chicago minus one and a half. You had Pittsburgh minus two and a half. Speaking of, I'm going with Detroit minus three. All right.
01:06:00
Speaker 2: Going Detroit? Oh, God.
01:06:03
Speaker 1: Yeah. Because I know what you want to do.
01:06:07
Speaker 2: What do you think I want to do? I want to do the Chiefs, honestly.
01:06:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know. I know. Because that's the other one I was going to do. And I'm like, I'm just getting a better number with the Lions.
01:06:15
Speaker 2: I'll be a super sharp douche. I'll take Denver minus four.
01:06:19
Speaker 1: Wow.
01:06:21
Speaker 2: Okay. Because I've been trying to give out favorites in my short prescribed. I don't know if you noticed this pattern because people are killing me saying all I do is take the grossest dogs of the week. That's why I win, quote unquote. So I said, you know what? This year I'm taking favorites, trying to at least. So, yeah, normally I would probably take the Chiefs here, but I'll go with Denver minus four.
01:06:40
Speaker 1: All right. In Survivor, we're basically out of it.
01:06:43
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm out. I mean, if people want our advice, I think we're both on the Vikings.
01:06:48
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:06:49
Speaker 2: But I don't feel great about it. I mean, this is by far the toughest week for Survivor. I mean, people have heard my pitch on Denver. If you want to go with the sneakiest Survivor option, I wouldn't do Jets. I know it looks so easy and so simple, but I just have a hard time thinking Miami's going 0-17. Like, this is a game they could steal. I know it's probably going to be at home when they'll steal a game, but that's my hesitation with the Jets. I know they're a sharp option where Yeah, if you still have multiple option pools, I know guys who have a lot of options, right? They put multiple entries into a pool. Sure, you can take the Jets, but if I only had one pool left, there ain't no way in hell I'm taking the Jets this week.
01:07:28
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to have a lot of work to do on Sunday. I don't think we really built to a consensus here. And that's when we'll discuss our final NFL Week 7 bets, and we'll finalize our official five picks for the $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. Sign up. SharperSquare.thevolume.com. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us on Spotify, Alpapods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Sunday, 11 a.m. Eastern Live, love you.
01:08:12
Speaker 2: Brewer Beaver.
01:08:13
Speaker 1: I caught it.
01:08:15
Speaker 2: Come see what's brewing. Come see what the good times are. Come see what the brewers are doing. Come on and cheer a superstar. Be a believer in Brewer Beaver. It's fun to join in the cheering.