00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by PolyMarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:23
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:25
Speaker 1: Dude, we got big news impacting lines since we last did a show on Thursday. A lot of quarterback news. We're going to get to it in the games we're going to discuss. But the biggest is Jalen Hurts. He's out indefinitely as of yesterday, Saturday. Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport reporting that he is out indefinitely with a blood clot. He's on injured reserve. That Panthers line has moved a ton. We will discuss that. as well as all the other lines. Let's get into it. It's our Saturday morning NFL week six show. Simon and I will nail down our final five picks for the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick'em $ 25, 000 contest. It's all free. Sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. All right, let's get into it right away, Simon. Carolina Panthers at the Philadelphia Eagles. The line right now is three. The line in our contest, because you can't have whole number lines, they have to have a hook one way or the other, is three and a half. This is the one to talk about for a couple reasons. We started betting it last Sunday at Panthers plus one and a half. I loved it immediately. We talked about it on the Sunday show. It started moving in the Panthers direction immediately to the point where They were short favorites. And then the news about Jalen Hurts came out and it shot the number up to three and a half. There has been some buyback. Forgetting your fandom, because I know when you're betting that has nothing to do with it. Where do you think the resistance is on this line for the Eagles? And it looks like Tanner McKee as the starting quarterback. Is it three and a half? Is there value at three? What's your take on this situation? Yeah.
00:02:16
Speaker 2: I think pros are just bending because it's a trap line and a trap spot, right? That's what I talk about coming to this week. It's just, it's never as easy as people think it is. And that's how it felt with Carolina. It's just an easy bet to make. And, um, nothing's changing in my opinion where it's, I bet Carolina, but we talked about it. It's just a fishy line that I was never gonna bet a lot of money into felt way more comfortable betting Carolina and teasers. So, um, You know, the backup quarterback, everyone thinks their backups are really good. I'm not an idiot. I know there's 15 good quarterbacks in this league. Your backup is not one of them. So can you win this one game? Sure. Is he going to get the Eagles to the playoffs? A betting man would say less than a 10% chance. It's just historically we see backups come in. It just doesn't happen, right? For every Case Keenum, there's a, you know, a guy that comes in that's just a no-name guy that kind of wins one or two games and you never hear from him ever again. So, yeah, Eagles side of the ball, I mean, as a fan, obviously, we want Hurts to be healthy, and that's really scary stuff. Anytime you hear blood clots, immediately you're just like, oh, career over. So when they did put him in the IR, I think a lot of Eagles fans got their hopes up that it was maybe just a one or two-week thing, which the Eagles could potentially survive. But, yeah, looking at this line, I think it's very telling that it did go up to three and a half and then it got back. bet back down where you see most shops right now all the bets all the money are on Carolina so I get the resistance on the Eagles it's just I'm already bet on Carolina I wouldn't I wouldn't bet on the Eagles and if you haven't bet anything in this game maybe play a live like I've talked about the Eagles are a really good first half team really bad second half team this year I don't know if the changing of the quarterback will change that so yeah interesting line movement to say the least right I thought this would be four and a half come Sunday morning got up to three and a half got bet back down to three so A ton of movement on this game.
00:04:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a little surprised it didn't keep going and that the resistance was the three and a half. For the contest, as everybody knows, our contest lines are dynamic. So you can lock in your bets at any time starting Tuesday during the week of the games. We always lock in on Thursday after the show and then plan on reevaluating. It makes it hard because we locked in Carolina last minus a half. So in theory, not in theory, in practicality, we're getting three points of value. It's hard to want to make a lot of changes and hard to want to move off of Carolina when you're getting a field goal worth of value. When we thought we were making a bet on a team that at least had Jalen Hurts, now we're making a bet on a team that doesn't have Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts to run an offense that was already struggling. So It's going to be an interesting conversation for us at the end of this show, brother. Pittsburgh, minus two and a half at Tampa Bay, a late entry into our conversation. It came up on Thursday. We thought it might just be a placeholder when we put it in the other day. I think as a number, if it was three and a half or three, we'd probably be on the box. But I like the number two and a half. Getting that under three for the Steelers on an offense that I do think is getting better and better. We talked about it in Rodgers. Consistently improving over the past three weeks. Most touchdown passes in the NFL the past three weeks.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, another game we're going against the pros in, though, just like in Carolina.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
00:05:46
Speaker 2: I know a ton of really smart money on Tampa. I mean, a lot of these one-peeing games. A ton of smart money is on Tampa, who's a home dog. A ton of smart money is on Atlanta, who's a home dog. I mean, we talked early in the week, the Saints– I knew that was going to be a sharp side. A ton of really smart money. I was on the Saints. So, yeah, it's, it is crazy. We're so involved in the NFC South. I never will get it while me and Chad just gravitate towards these NFC South matchups.
00:06:13
Speaker 1: You can't quit.
00:06:14
Speaker 2: We really can't. So, it's another one where I, I like the match for the Steelers. Obviously, you know, they lost Pat Friermuth yesterday. I mean, it was very bizarre. I saw they practiced before they went on a team flight yesterday. I don't know how many teams do that, practice on a Saturday before a team flight. But, um we've talked about we just expect to let down a little bit from Tampa here Todd Bowles obviously struggles against coaching against the AFC North so um you know a lot to like matchup wise here but I get why the pros are betting this Tampa team because you've seen this undrafted rookie frigging quarterback come in and just you know he won in Dallas and if you go back and watch the tape a lot of the holes they have running wise against Dallas was because they have a mobile quarterback right that's not something you could say I mean Baker can run but your offense doesn't use a read option. No one takes Baker serious to run with the ball where you kind of have to here with Daniel. So yeah, really interesting pros, pros versus Joes. And we're, we're with the Joes here. I'm with the public on this Pittsburgh side. So hopefully it doesn't burn us, but yeah, I've seen a couple of books already moved that number below too. So a lot of professional money coming in on the books this morning.
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Speaker 1: Public wins sometimes. And also you've got, A lot more opportunity to evaluate what he did against the Cowboys. You always get a little bit of that dead cat bounce in the first game when a backup is in, especially when he's got this much time to prepare, as Jalen Daniels did. So I think that there might be some overvaluing, a little too smart, a little too cute. From my point of view, I like the Steelers under three. I'm comfortable with the Steelers under three. I'm happy to keep them in the contest. At this number, it is time for our Polymarket Closing Time Trade of the Week. I can't say this one's going to get in the contest, Simon, but all week we have been talking about the Washington Commanders plus seven and a half at the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. It has been announced Nick Bosa will not be playing in this game for the 49ers. Mike Evans is still questionable. Kyle Juszczyk is still questionable to play in this game. When we started talking about this game on Tuesday, we were going on the Commanders because of the huge public perception shift between a terrible ending, the way that Jaden Daniels couldn't spike the ball and get a game-winning field goal kickoff for the Commanders, and how the Niners beat up on the Seattle Seahawks. The Washington Commanders trading at seven and a half at 50% will be our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket. What say you, Simon Hunter?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, we like this trade because it's just inflated, right? This is a commander side that people are just down on right now. They embarrass themselves. On the flip side, you're talking about potentially the best team in football. They've had a really hard schedule and they They beat everyone along the way, the 49ers, and right at least they deserve a ton of respect. But we've seen this team now. They tend to play in very close games, and it's because of all the injuries, right? So we know at some point it's going to catch up with the 49ers, right? They just have such good coaching, defensively, offensively. And we've seen this commander's offense obviously struggle defensively, but we've seen them excel offensively when Jayden Daniels is playing. So just too many points. At the end of the day, it's just too many points. Not enough respect to give into that offense. So yeah, another line or trade I believe will move come Monday. So get this while you still can at Polymarket.
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Speaker 1: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange four sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys that are giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today And use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right. Baltimore at Cleveland. Live line right now is three. In the contest, it's three and a half. Snoop Huntley will be the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens. News came out after our show on Thursday. Browns were signed and says... We had been betting into the Browns all week. The line was as high as five and a half. That's what we got it in the contest at five and a half on Thursday, because I think the line was set at a Lamar Jackson number. And obviously it's gone down two and a half points since the Lamar Jackson news. Another game in which we're getting a huge bonus on a team that we like versus where the line is right now.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, the book's definitely hedged, right? They were hoping this would probably be 6.5, 7 if it's Lamar. So they put out 5.5, just letting the market dictate this week. And, you know, you saw as soon as Snoop got announced, it went right to 3.5, then got hit down to 3. So same weird thing, though, this week where there's a ton of resistance with the Browns, just like that Eagles game with Carolina. Like the pros are just hammering the dog at 3.5. Obviously, it's a home dog. That's where the value is going to be. But this is a little different, right, where Snoop, he steps in. He's been pretty good for this Ravens team. It doesn't matter who the OC is, who the coach is. I mean, they've changed over the years, and Snoop stayed there. And every time Lamar gets knocked out, he comes into place pretty well. I think he's 3-3 as a starter. So he's just not a rollover, right? It's not someone that, you know, if it's a really bad backup, this line could have went down to a pickup. I think the books are showing their respect to Snoop and this Ravens offense. On the flip side, I don't think they're giving respect at all to Cleveland. I really am shocked by this line. It's just maybe I'm overrating them a little too much. It has been a lot of Deshaun Watson fourth quarter magic, but they've just been close in every game, this Cleveland team. The only time they really got blown out and embarrassed was that week one against the Jaguars. And I just felt like, you know, that game got away from them. And since then, they've really improved every week. So it's another game where, yeah, maybe if we were choosing this morning and in our contest, there were two and a half, we would talk ourselves out of the Browns, but anything of three and a half or above, it's just, I don't know how people walk away from that. It just feels like such good value for a Browns team. It just feels like they're a little underrated by the general public. We talked about last week, they had a botched punt. They had stupid fumbles by Deshaun Watson, these horrible rain. Like it just, It feels like a lot of overreaction to the past week rather than what they've done this season. So, yeah, I'm happy with the value we have on it. It's a line we bet all week, and hopefully it can come through for us.
00:13:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, nothing to add here. Couldn't agree more. We've been backing the Browns. There's no reason not to back the Browns, especially the splits, showing them at home. There's no difference what it's been historically when they had Myles Garrett, when they had Jim Schwartz. New defensive system. I think they're getting better defensively week after week. We're starting to see that. I don't think what we're seeing with Deshaun is that much of an anomaly at this point. I think he's playing into the fourth quarter. Todd Munkin is calling really smart plays and building a game plan where they figure out in the fourth quarter what's working best for them and what's working best for him. I like where we're at. I guess I did have a little bit to add, Simon. Buffalo at the Las Vegas Raiders, currently four and a half. This was Chad's choice. The Raiders are four and a half point home underdogs. This is what gives me confidence. It would have been Simon Says if I hadn't gotten there first. We are locked in on the Raiders. Buffalo is a huge public site. Buffalo is one of the bottom third teams in defending tight ends. We like the value we're getting of the Raiders off of the blowout last week. That felt like a game where there could have been blowout scenarios, get Kirk back at home. We like the way Clint Kubiak has been calling plays for him. It's a number that actually has moved back up to five and a half because the public has been coming in so hard on Buffalo. But no matter any way you look at it, if you believe the Raiders are a good team, a good team off a blowout, going back home as a home dog, 57% against the spread. If you believe the Raiders are a bad team, a bad team off a blowout, going back home, 56% against the spread as a home dog, going back 20 years. This is a spot where we want to play the Raiders.
00:15:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, and totally get why the public is hammering the bills. Like you just said, this Raiders team just gave up 45 points to a team without one of their best running backs and one of their best receivers in New England. So totally get public reception here, but I feel like me and you are just dug in on this Raiders team that, Every team has bad games. We just think overall what they've done this season just shows they're a good team, especially offensively with Kubiak. So could we get burned again by Kirk like we did last week? Yeah, we know the risk we're taking here, but I think you nailed the matchup, which is the sneaky sauce in this game. It's just the Bills are terrible against tight ends, and this is a tight end, heavily based offense in the Raiders. It's just the type of thing where if they take away Bowers, they have other ways to beat you as well. In the 12 personnel, 13 personnel packages, they do run, so Yeah, never the best when the number goes back up. We always feel better when the number goes with us.
00:16:37
Speaker 1: We hate that.
00:16:39
Speaker 2: That's definitely a little bit of a pause here. These are the exact games me and Chad absolutely love, and then we get totally wrecked because we're betting on bad teams right against a really good team in the Bills. But I think our belief is true that the Bills are still a great offensive team, but my God, that defense. It's just so bad for the Bills. And we're through five weeks here, and their defense is still struggling. And I know they'll get better as the year goes along here, but as we say right now, I just don't think the Bills are worthy to be favored by this many points. They truly have to roll the Raiders and not have turnovers. Now, that could happen, but we've seen a lot of 50-50 balls by Josh Allen this year because he's trying to do so much. And they have a running back in Cooks who has a fumbling problem. You can't say he doesn't have a fumbling problem when even their head coach is having to answer questions about that where, He is one of the best running backs in football, but if you can't protect the ball, you can't play. I mean, that's just that simple. You might not have cost your team the game last week, but it will cost you a game coming up. And that's what I think is the big discrepancy here is the Bills are a little too turnover happy right now and too many questions about their defense. I just think this is way too many points. So we'll take it with the Raiders here.
00:17:48
Speaker 1: Inflated. Inflated. Speaking of inflated, Los Angeles Chargers currently plus seven and a half at Kansas City. It's another early pick. When we put it in on Thursday, the line for the Chargers was eight and a half. We've liked the Chargers all week. It was our brass balls trade of the week. No one wants to play the Chargers, Simon. They are a train wreck of a team with injuries everywhere. But you kind of blindly play the number in this spot. You're not even looking at the rosters. You're just... you're just taking the side that is a dreadful, dreadful dog that has an overinflated number against it.
00:18:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it is scary where most bookmakers I've talked to, they're going to need the Chiefs because it's just so much pro money has hammered this Chargers line. So much so that it even canceled out all the teasers, all the money that's on the Chiefs where, yeah, this is a definition of a pro spot. The pros have just been hammering the Chargers here just because of what we talked about. It's just, An inflated line you're getting free value on. Yes, we know the charges are horrible. It's total dysfunction within the organization and the head coaching staff and all that. But at the end of the day, we play the numbers, and it just feels like it's a way too inflated line in a divisional game where we've seen Mahomes play his exact matchup so many times where they just take the foot off the gas. And did it burn us with Miami? Yeah, but if you go back and watch the Miami game, think of all the stupid things that had to happen for us to get burned with that big number. So the same thing would have to happen here, which is just, You have to stay true to yourself, your numbers, where it's like, yeah, if we get burned here, it's going to hurt. We know long-term, you fade Mahomes with this big of a number. On the flip side, with Justin Herbert, he's just such a competitor. He just never gives up. He's always going to be fighting, always to the end. This number is so inflated, it doesn't shock me it came down to 7.5. It's another number where I wouldn't have been shocked if it came in today and was at 7, 6.5 just because it's so much professional money. It was just such an inflated line. It just never made sense. when I was 8.5. We get it. They're 0-5. They haven't covered yet this season. The Chargers are absolutely terrible, but it's going to go the other way at some point, and we want to be on that side. We were very lucky, extremely happy to fade them last week. We got away with one. This week, I'm happy we're back on the Chargers at an inflated number.
00:20:08
Speaker 1: Well, also, but your point about some fluky things had to happen for it to not go our way with the Dolphins and the Chiefs. It's such a crooked number. Given that you continue to play that side, the percentages are going to come your way. There should be regression back to the way that it's supposed to go with inflated numbers and the Chiefs. So right now we like the Chargers, even a plus seven and a half. We got them at plus eight and a half, but we still like them at plus seven and a half. A couple more games I want to get to before we get out of here because I don't think we're going to put him in, but people are talking about him. Dallas plus one and a half at Green Bay. I don't have a strong enough opinion to lose any of the value we have on this game. We know Micah Parsons isn't playing in this game. Huge value probably against the Packers because of the way they blew up the Bears and the way the Cowboys got beat up on Thursday night against the Buccaneers. Strong opinion on this game, Simon.
00:21:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just– it's hard not to want to fade this Packers team where they face– their defense is faced. Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, then I think it might have been Cooper Rush for Atlanta. Maybe it was Tua. And then obviously Tampa's back up with Daniels, and then Chicago's back up.
00:21:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:31
Speaker 2: I mean, that's just– hey, they don't pick their schedule, blah, blah, blah. But it's like you have to factor in their defense. which we talked about was going to struggle this year, hasn't played a true, legit starting quarterback with a great offense yet this season. So, yeah, the pros are all over Dallas. The public's all over Green Bay. And it's just they overlook the whole season. They just look what happened last week, right? Dallas got embarrassed. Green Bay, best game of the season. Jordan Love played out of this world. So, not shocked to see that. And if you want to play it safe and just take the over, I get that. But I just, I think, Dallas defense is going to be better than they've looked, and I think this is a great, great matchup for this Dallas offense to get right after such an embarrassing loss the previous week against Tampa. I mean, their offense really did struggle. That was a lot on deck. So, yeah, looking here at this matchup, I get why the money's coming on Green Bay. It's just another line where I'm shocked it's not down to a pick. So I think you're still getting good value here if you get plus one and a half or take the money line on Dallas. It's just too much overreaction to the Green Bay's win the previous week.
00:22:33
Speaker 1: Agree. Arizona, Los Angeles Rams. I had bet into Arizona at 13 and a half. You came around and you're on the Rams as a big number, a big favorite at home in the division. You had all the stats to back it up. You kind of convinced me. A stat from our friends at Killer Sports that makes me completely want to buy out of the Cardinals, which I had already done at 12 and a half. 11 plus point favorites when the total is over 47. Past several years, 86. And 48. The total on this game is 51. So another trend that backs up taking the Rams as big favorites this afternoon.
00:23:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, hate the bet, hate doing it, but you got to bet the Rams. It's a long-term winner. I'm trying to break my old habits.
00:23:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to self-scout. You got to self-scout.
00:23:25
Speaker 2: Because it's one of the Fisher lines of the week, like I've talked about all– I knew all the teasers, all the money would be coming in on the Rams. And this number, like Chad said, it was 13 and a half. It came down. It's not budged now. It's just sat at 12 and a half the rest of the week. So yeah, I, I, I'm trying to fight against everything instinctually. That's telling me this is, this is a Cardinal side. It's a Cardinal spot, but yeah, the data, the numbers back up this Rams team and you expect them to get right here and just steamroll this team, right? They've just, They've had such a hard schedule to start the year, this Rams team, and they've had so many close, bad losses. It just feels like the exact type of game where they face the Giants in Week 2, where it's just they roll them, right? Maybe it's close to the very beginning, but Stafford and the offense gets going. Cardinals get a couple three-and-outs, and that's all she wrote. So that's what we're hoping for here. We'll know pretty quickly. If the game starts and Cardinals drive the field to get a touchdown, the Rams drive the field to kick a couple field goals, yeah, our bet's dead. We know the deal about these big favorites, but Um, yeah, the, the, the underlying numbers just really favor this Rams team and taking these big favorites at this point.
00:24:32
Speaker 1: Last one. I want to get your take on this Chicago in the contest is down to a half. It most sports books against Atlanta on the road, Chicago was minus one and a half minus one. Caleb is starting this game. Everyone still seems to be piling in on Atlanta. You mentioned it at the top of the show professionals coming in on the Falcons. I mean, the Bears just got crushed as a favorite. I get the sentiment this defense is so bad that Michael Penix and Drake London can light it up. I've been betting into the Bears on this. I bet them at three, got a bad number. I bet them at plus a half, got the best of the number. And I'm still confused as to why the Bears are getting zero respect in this game. Road favorites... that failed to cover by 25 points in their previous game, 50 and 27 against the spread since 2017. Thank you, Killer Sports. We knew that stat blind before we even started thinking about this game. That's why I was betting the Bears at minus three, because they got beaten so badly. Of course, there was going to be value on the Bears. I'm surprised this line is moving against them so aggressively.
00:25:49
Speaker 2: I'm not just because it is, it is Penix, right? Penix is going to be back. And you've seen Penix this year when he plays and he's healthy and he has time to pass in the pocket. He's good. You guys don't have a pass rush. You don't have, the Bears have nothing but hope on defense, right? They have to hope for a turnover and it's worked this year, right? The games you guys have won, you've gotten the punch outs, you've gotten the picks like that's, you can live and die that way. Especially if you have a DC, like you do, that's very aggressive because he knows he doesn't have the guys. So, In this matchup, I look at this Falcons team and the way they've had pressure rate. They've been really good on the D-line for Atlanta, getting pressure on quarterbacks. We talked, Terrell's out of this game. Their number one corner's out. Most teams, that's a big deal. The Bears are weird this year. They don't have a number one. Luther Burden's underachieved. Colson Loveland's underachieved. Roma Dunzey's underachieved. They're not really– they don't put fear into your heart. This is still a Bears team that they've been a run-first team I think Menunga is out as well. So that is a big deal where Swift isn't battling through his own injuries. Now you're down Menunga. It's a lot to ask of Caleb for his first game back. This isn't just an easy game in any sense of the matter. He's walking into a very hostile environment against a team that you could say, I mean, other than Washington, the Giants, Eagles, maybe two last week had the worst loss, but it's right up there. The Falcons had that game against the Ravens and totally blew a fourth quarter lead. I mean, you talk about Pennix, you know, you think of that Jake Matthews touchdown off his back foot, like there's so many back foot throws he missed, you know, even to the running back. You said B. John Robinson wide open too for a touchdown. That cost in that game where they win that, this number is what? Minus three, minus three and a half potentially for the Atlanta. So I think it was really interesting. The books took a stand here on Chicago. The public has joined them for the most part on Chicago where the pros have just been hammering Atlanta. So, I'm like you. I wanted to be on Chicago here, but it's just, I respect the pros here. There's so many other games on the board I'll invest in. I'll just stay away from it. I'm like, you've already been in Chicago, but I'm not invested anymore into it. I just, there's something off about this number here. And yeah, very telling this number hasn't budged since Caleb got announced. Caleb got announced. Yeah. Kind of himself. It wasn't really so much the team. I think he went on like Instagram and posted some stuff where no one really knew if he was going to play or not. And he kind of said he was, and the number didn't budge. Like the books had already kind of built it in. So, Really interesting line movement this week with that number where minus three with Caleb made sense. The fact that it doesn't budge from minus one and a half just shows how much resistance there is with professional money.
00:28:26
Speaker 1: Yeah. To me, it's one of the most fascinating lines of the week. Let's get an update on your biggest bets right now.
00:28:37
Speaker 2: Oh, man. I mean, at a number people can get, I would still say Vegas I still like. When we talk about commanders, still really like them. Still would take the Chargers a plus 7.5 as well. For the 1 p.m. games, I mean, it's gross, but I am still on the Patriots minus 7.5.
00:28:56
Speaker 1: Interesting.
00:28:57
Speaker 2: Yeah. People ask a lot about the Colts because we took them survivor. I've actually kind of cowered out on that. I've taken more shares of the Rams because the Colts play at home Miami in a couple weeks. So a lot of people like game theory stuff, they want to take the Colts with that. Now you've seen professional money coming on Tennessee, which I'm shocked by.
00:29:16
Speaker 1: I'm shocked. That number is down to six and a half. Strong six and a half.
00:29:20
Speaker 2: Some really sharp books offshore now are down to six. So, you know, they have a read on it. I just– I can't believe that where I get it, right? If Warren's out for the Colts, their number one tight end, their number one receiving option, that's fair. Like they're bent into that where it's going to be a much tighter, closer game. Okay, that's fair. And if that's enough to scare you off them and survivor i totally get it um that was when i jumped out to me where yeah like i have a big big money invested in the colts um with carolina and my teasers from earlier in the week with the colts and new england patriots from teaser in the week so Yeah, Colts losing that game outright would be pretty damning for me. I think South Slope's a crazy stat. Game Ward will join Troy Aikman as one of the few players to start their career 0-8 against their division or 0-10, whatever it is. Yeah, just another line that jumps out, though, that people don't want to bet. I'm telling you, I'm betting it. I don't know how heavy I'm going to bet into it, but just for these 1 p.m. games, I'm betting the Saints. I know it's disgusting. And I'm glad me and Chad aren't talking contest-wise because I have zero faith in them. Simply playing the number and playing the situation where I just think Jameis Winston and the Giants team is not that good. And for all the naysayers about how bad the Saints team is, they're still healthier and more complete team than the Giants team. So, yeah, for biggest bets, really, it really comes down to the 4 p.m. games. If the Raiders and the Chargers lose today on the spread– My day is washed, honestly. That's really where most of my money is heavily invested in today.
00:30:51
Speaker 1: Well, it's where most of our psychic energy is invested as well in the contest because Raiders are Chad's choice. Chargers are brass balls. Our final five picks are going to be, don't forget, we did lock in on Thursday, so we got the best of some numbers here. Carolina Panthers, minus a half. They're currently three and a half in the contest. We locked in on Thursday. The Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half. The Cleveland Browns plus five and a half. They are currently four and a half. We locked them in on Thursday. The Los Angeles Chargers plus eight and a half. Who am I missing there? What did I miss? I miss the, oh, the Raiders plus four and a half. against the Buffalo Bills. So that is our final five. Panthers, Steelers, Browns, Raiders, and Chargers. We will be back.
00:31:59
Speaker 2: And what I just want to say to people, if you want to see the picks, like I've said all year, Chad puts these picks in. There's no messing around. You can go look in the contest, click on our names. You can see the lines. We're not I know the lines just look off. Like Chad said, we lock these in literally at 11 a.m. or 12 a.m. Thursday morning. So I get it. I get the doubt and the hate. But if you go to our contest, you click on Chad's name, it literally will pop up with all our picks.
00:32:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chad and Simon BFFs is our name in the contest. We're not trying to hide it from anybody. That's our show. We will be back tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, live on the Sharp or Square YouTube channel. with our instant NFL reactions after the late afternoon games. This has been Sharper Square, presented by Apollo Market. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
00:33:03
Speaker 3: I'm not a golf pro, but I love this game just like you do. But there are two things that burn me up, and I'm talking about bad golf etiquette and slow play. This is called the practice tee for good reason. This is where you're supposed to work on your swing, not out there. So let's do our practicing right here on the range, and let's shorten that pre-shot routine for the good of the game.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square presented by PolyMarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:23
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:25
Speaker 1: Dude, we got big news impacting lines since we last did a show on Thursday. A lot of quarterback news. We're going to get to it in the games we're going to discuss. But the biggest is Jalen Hurts. He's out indefinitely as of yesterday, Saturday. Adam Schefter and Ian Rapoport reporting that he is out indefinitely with a blood clot. He's on injured reserve. That Panthers line has moved a ton. We will discuss that. as well as all the other lines. Let's get into it. It's our Saturday morning NFL week six show. Simon and I will nail down our final five picks for the Sharper Square Pro Football Pick'em $ 25, 000 contest. It's all free. Sign up, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. All right, let's get into it right away, Simon. Carolina Panthers at the Philadelphia Eagles. The line right now is three. The line in our contest, because you can't have whole number lines, they have to have a hook one way or the other, is three and a half. This is the one to talk about for a couple reasons. We started betting it last Sunday at Panthers plus one and a half. I loved it immediately. We talked about it on the Sunday show. It started moving in the Panthers direction immediately to the point where They were short favorites. And then the news about Jalen Hurts came out and it shot the number up to three and a half. There has been some buyback. Forgetting your fandom, because I know when you're betting that has nothing to do with it. Where do you think the resistance is on this line for the Eagles? And it looks like Tanner McKee as the starting quarterback. Is it three and a half? Is there value at three? What's your take on this situation? Yeah.
00:02:16
Speaker 2: I think pros are just bending because it's a trap line and a trap spot, right? That's what I talk about coming to this week. It's just, it's never as easy as people think it is. And that's how it felt with Carolina. It's just an easy bet to make. And, um, nothing's changing in my opinion where it's, I bet Carolina, but we talked about it. It's just a fishy line that I was never gonna bet a lot of money into felt way more comfortable betting Carolina and teasers. So, um, You know, the backup quarterback, everyone thinks their backups are really good. I'm not an idiot. I know there's 15 good quarterbacks in this league. Your backup is not one of them. So can you win this one game? Sure. Is he going to get the Eagles to the playoffs? A betting man would say less than a 10% chance. It's just historically we see backups come in. It just doesn't happen, right? For every Case Keenum, there's a, you know, a guy that comes in that's just a no-name guy that kind of wins one or two games and you never hear from him ever again. So, yeah, Eagles side of the ball, I mean, as a fan, obviously, we want Hurts to be healthy, and that's really scary stuff. Anytime you hear blood clots, immediately you're just like, oh, career over. So when they did put him in the IR, I think a lot of Eagles fans got their hopes up that it was maybe just a one or two-week thing, which the Eagles could potentially survive. But, yeah, looking at this line, I think it's very telling that it did go up to three and a half and then it got back. bet back down where you see most shops right now all the bets all the money are on Carolina so I get the resistance on the Eagles it's just I'm already bet on Carolina I wouldn't I wouldn't bet on the Eagles and if you haven't bet anything in this game maybe play a live like I've talked about the Eagles are a really good first half team really bad second half team this year I don't know if the changing of the quarterback will change that so yeah interesting line movement to say the least right I thought this would be four and a half come Sunday morning got up to three and a half got bet back down to three so A ton of movement on this game.
00:04:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a little surprised it didn't keep going and that the resistance was the three and a half. For the contest, as everybody knows, our contest lines are dynamic. So you can lock in your bets at any time starting Tuesday during the week of the games. We always lock in on Thursday after the show and then plan on reevaluating. It makes it hard because we locked in Carolina last minus a half. So in theory, not in theory, in practicality, we're getting three points of value. It's hard to want to make a lot of changes and hard to want to move off of Carolina when you're getting a field goal worth of value. When we thought we were making a bet on a team that at least had Jalen Hurts, now we're making a bet on a team that doesn't have Saquon Barkley or Jalen Hurts to run an offense that was already struggling. So It's going to be an interesting conversation for us at the end of this show, brother. Pittsburgh, minus two and a half at Tampa Bay, a late entry into our conversation. It came up on Thursday. We thought it might just be a placeholder when we put it in the other day. I think as a number, if it was three and a half or three, we'd probably be on the box. But I like the number two and a half. Getting that under three for the Steelers on an offense that I do think is getting better and better. We talked about it in Rodgers. Consistently improving over the past three weeks. Most touchdown passes in the NFL the past three weeks.
00:05:42
Speaker 2: Yeah, another game we're going against the pros in, though, just like in Carolina.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah.
00:05:46
Speaker 2: I know a ton of really smart money on Tampa. I mean, a lot of these one-peeing games. A ton of smart money is on Tampa, who's a home dog. A ton of smart money is on Atlanta, who's a home dog. I mean, we talked early in the week, the Saints– I knew that was going to be a sharp side. A ton of really smart money. I was on the Saints. So, yeah, it's, it is crazy. We're so involved in the NFC South. I never will get it while me and Chad just gravitate towards these NFC South matchups.
00:06:13
Speaker 1: You can't quit.
00:06:14
Speaker 2: We really can't. So, it's another one where I, I like the match for the Steelers. Obviously, you know, they lost Pat Friermuth yesterday. I mean, it was very bizarre. I saw they practiced before they went on a team flight yesterday. I don't know how many teams do that, practice on a Saturday before a team flight. But, um we've talked about we just expect to let down a little bit from Tampa here Todd Bowles obviously struggles against coaching against the AFC North so um you know a lot to like matchup wise here but I get why the pros are betting this Tampa team because you've seen this undrafted rookie frigging quarterback come in and just you know he won in Dallas and if you go back and watch the tape a lot of the holes they have running wise against Dallas was because they have a mobile quarterback right that's not something you could say I mean Baker can run but your offense doesn't use a read option. No one takes Baker serious to run with the ball where you kind of have to here with Daniel. So yeah, really interesting pros, pros versus Joes. And we're, we're with the Joes here. I'm with the public on this Pittsburgh side. So hopefully it doesn't burn us, but yeah, I've seen a couple of books already moved that number below too. So a lot of professional money coming in on the books this morning.
00:07:19
Speaker 1: Public wins sometimes. And also you've got, A lot more opportunity to evaluate what he did against the Cowboys. You always get a little bit of that dead cat bounce in the first game when a backup is in, especially when he's got this much time to prepare, as Jalen Daniels did. So I think that there might be some overvaluing, a little too smart, a little too cute. From my point of view, I like the Steelers under three. I'm comfortable with the Steelers under three. I'm happy to keep them in the contest. At this number, it is time for our Polymarket Closing Time Trade of the Week. I can't say this one's going to get in the contest, Simon, but all week we have been talking about the Washington Commanders plus seven and a half at the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. It has been announced Nick Bosa will not be playing in this game for the 49ers. Mike Evans is still questionable. Kyle Juszczyk is still questionable to play in this game. When we started talking about this game on Tuesday, we were going on the Commanders because of the huge public perception shift between a terrible ending, the way that Jaden Daniels couldn't spike the ball and get a game-winning field goal kickoff for the Commanders, and how the Niners beat up on the Seattle Seahawks. The Washington Commanders trading at seven and a half at 50% will be our closing time trade of the week presented by Polymarket. What say you, Simon Hunter?
00:09:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, we like this trade because it's just inflated, right? This is a commander side that people are just down on right now. They embarrass themselves. On the flip side, you're talking about potentially the best team in football. They've had a really hard schedule and they They beat everyone along the way, the 49ers, and right at least they deserve a ton of respect. But we've seen this team now. They tend to play in very close games, and it's because of all the injuries, right? So we know at some point it's going to catch up with the 49ers, right? They just have such good coaching, defensively, offensively. And we've seen this commander's offense obviously struggle defensively, but we've seen them excel offensively when Jayden Daniels is playing. So just too many points. At the end of the day, it's just too many points. Not enough respect to give into that offense. So yeah, another line or trade I believe will move come Monday. So get this while you still can at Polymarket.
00:10:00
Speaker 1: I need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in and if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange four sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys that are giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today And use SHARP when you sign up. That's SHARP to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. All right. Baltimore at Cleveland. Live line right now is three. In the contest, it's three and a half. Snoop Huntley will be the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens. News came out after our show on Thursday. Browns were signed and says... We had been betting into the Browns all week. The line was as high as five and a half. That's what we got it in the contest at five and a half on Thursday, because I think the line was set at a Lamar Jackson number. And obviously it's gone down two and a half points since the Lamar Jackson news. Another game in which we're getting a huge bonus on a team that we like versus where the line is right now.
00:11:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, the book's definitely hedged, right? They were hoping this would probably be 6.5, 7 if it's Lamar. So they put out 5.5, just letting the market dictate this week. And, you know, you saw as soon as Snoop got announced, it went right to 3.5, then got hit down to 3. So same weird thing, though, this week where there's a ton of resistance with the Browns, just like that Eagles game with Carolina. Like the pros are just hammering the dog at 3.5. Obviously, it's a home dog. That's where the value is going to be. But this is a little different, right, where Snoop, he steps in. He's been pretty good for this Ravens team. It doesn't matter who the OC is, who the coach is. I mean, they've changed over the years, and Snoop stayed there. And every time Lamar gets knocked out, he comes into place pretty well. I think he's 3-3 as a starter. So he's just not a rollover, right? It's not someone that, you know, if it's a really bad backup, this line could have went down to a pickup. I think the books are showing their respect to Snoop and this Ravens offense. On the flip side, I don't think they're giving respect at all to Cleveland. I really am shocked by this line. It's just maybe I'm overrating them a little too much. It has been a lot of Deshaun Watson fourth quarter magic, but they've just been close in every game, this Cleveland team. The only time they really got blown out and embarrassed was that week one against the Jaguars. And I just felt like, you know, that game got away from them. And since then, they've really improved every week. So it's another game where, yeah, maybe if we were choosing this morning and in our contest, there were two and a half, we would talk ourselves out of the Browns, but anything of three and a half or above, it's just, I don't know how people walk away from that. It just feels like such good value for a Browns team. It just feels like they're a little underrated by the general public. We talked about last week, they had a botched punt. They had stupid fumbles by Deshaun Watson, these horrible rain. Like it just, It feels like a lot of overreaction to the past week rather than what they've done this season. So, yeah, I'm happy with the value we have on it. It's a line we bet all week, and hopefully it can come through for us.
00:13:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, nothing to add here. Couldn't agree more. We've been backing the Browns. There's no reason not to back the Browns, especially the splits, showing them at home. There's no difference what it's been historically when they had Myles Garrett, when they had Jim Schwartz. New defensive system. I think they're getting better defensively week after week. We're starting to see that. I don't think what we're seeing with Deshaun is that much of an anomaly at this point. I think he's playing into the fourth quarter. Todd Munkin is calling really smart plays and building a game plan where they figure out in the fourth quarter what's working best for them and what's working best for him. I like where we're at. I guess I did have a little bit to add, Simon. Buffalo at the Las Vegas Raiders, currently four and a half. This was Chad's choice. The Raiders are four and a half point home underdogs. This is what gives me confidence. It would have been Simon Says if I hadn't gotten there first. We are locked in on the Raiders. Buffalo is a huge public site. Buffalo is one of the bottom third teams in defending tight ends. We like the value we're getting of the Raiders off of the blowout last week. That felt like a game where there could have been blowout scenarios, get Kirk back at home. We like the way Clint Kubiak has been calling plays for him. It's a number that actually has moved back up to five and a half because the public has been coming in so hard on Buffalo. But no matter any way you look at it, if you believe the Raiders are a good team, a good team off a blowout, going back home as a home dog, 57% against the spread. If you believe the Raiders are a bad team, a bad team off a blowout, going back home, 56% against the spread as a home dog, going back 20 years. This is a spot where we want to play the Raiders.
00:15:44
Speaker 2: Yeah, and totally get why the public is hammering the bills. Like you just said, this Raiders team just gave up 45 points to a team without one of their best running backs and one of their best receivers in New England. So totally get public reception here, but I feel like me and you are just dug in on this Raiders team that, Every team has bad games. We just think overall what they've done this season just shows they're a good team, especially offensively with Kubiak. So could we get burned again by Kirk like we did last week? Yeah, we know the risk we're taking here, but I think you nailed the matchup, which is the sneaky sauce in this game. It's just the Bills are terrible against tight ends, and this is a tight end, heavily based offense in the Raiders. It's just the type of thing where if they take away Bowers, they have other ways to beat you as well. In the 12 personnel, 13 personnel packages, they do run, so Yeah, never the best when the number goes back up. We always feel better when the number goes with us.
00:16:37
Speaker 1: We hate that.
00:16:39
Speaker 2: That's definitely a little bit of a pause here. These are the exact games me and Chad absolutely love, and then we get totally wrecked because we're betting on bad teams right against a really good team in the Bills. But I think our belief is true that the Bills are still a great offensive team, but my God, that defense. It's just so bad for the Bills. And we're through five weeks here, and their defense is still struggling. And I know they'll get better as the year goes along here, but as we say right now, I just don't think the Bills are worthy to be favored by this many points. They truly have to roll the Raiders and not have turnovers. Now, that could happen, but we've seen a lot of 50-50 balls by Josh Allen this year because he's trying to do so much. And they have a running back in Cooks who has a fumbling problem. You can't say he doesn't have a fumbling problem when even their head coach is having to answer questions about that where, He is one of the best running backs in football, but if you can't protect the ball, you can't play. I mean, that's just that simple. You might not have cost your team the game last week, but it will cost you a game coming up. And that's what I think is the big discrepancy here is the Bills are a little too turnover happy right now and too many questions about their defense. I just think this is way too many points. So we'll take it with the Raiders here.
00:17:48
Speaker 1: Inflated. Inflated. Speaking of inflated, Los Angeles Chargers currently plus seven and a half at Kansas City. It's another early pick. When we put it in on Thursday, the line for the Chargers was eight and a half. We've liked the Chargers all week. It was our brass balls trade of the week. No one wants to play the Chargers, Simon. They are a train wreck of a team with injuries everywhere. But you kind of blindly play the number in this spot. You're not even looking at the rosters. You're just... you're just taking the side that is a dreadful, dreadful dog that has an overinflated number against it.
00:18:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it is scary where most bookmakers I've talked to, they're going to need the Chiefs because it's just so much pro money has hammered this Chargers line. So much so that it even canceled out all the teasers, all the money that's on the Chiefs where, yeah, this is a definition of a pro spot. The pros have just been hammering the Chargers here just because of what we talked about. It's just, An inflated line you're getting free value on. Yes, we know the charges are horrible. It's total dysfunction within the organization and the head coaching staff and all that. But at the end of the day, we play the numbers, and it just feels like it's a way too inflated line in a divisional game where we've seen Mahomes play his exact matchup so many times where they just take the foot off the gas. And did it burn us with Miami? Yeah, but if you go back and watch the Miami game, think of all the stupid things that had to happen for us to get burned with that big number. So the same thing would have to happen here, which is just, You have to stay true to yourself, your numbers, where it's like, yeah, if we get burned here, it's going to hurt. We know long-term, you fade Mahomes with this big of a number. On the flip side, with Justin Herbert, he's just such a competitor. He just never gives up. He's always going to be fighting, always to the end. This number is so inflated, it doesn't shock me it came down to 7.5. It's another number where I wouldn't have been shocked if it came in today and was at 7, 6.5 just because it's so much professional money. It was just such an inflated line. It just never made sense. when I was 8.5. We get it. They're 0-5. They haven't covered yet this season. The Chargers are absolutely terrible, but it's going to go the other way at some point, and we want to be on that side. We were very lucky, extremely happy to fade them last week. We got away with one. This week, I'm happy we're back on the Chargers at an inflated number.
00:20:08
Speaker 1: Well, also, but your point about some fluky things had to happen for it to not go our way with the Dolphins and the Chiefs. It's such a crooked number. Given that you continue to play that side, the percentages are going to come your way. There should be regression back to the way that it's supposed to go with inflated numbers and the Chiefs. So right now we like the Chargers, even a plus seven and a half. We got them at plus eight and a half, but we still like them at plus seven and a half. A couple more games I want to get to before we get out of here because I don't think we're going to put him in, but people are talking about him. Dallas plus one and a half at Green Bay. I don't have a strong enough opinion to lose any of the value we have on this game. We know Micah Parsons isn't playing in this game. Huge value probably against the Packers because of the way they blew up the Bears and the way the Cowboys got beat up on Thursday night against the Buccaneers. Strong opinion on this game, Simon.
00:21:11
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just– it's hard not to want to fade this Packers team where they face– their defense is faced. Carson Wentz, Geno Smith, then I think it might have been Cooper Rush for Atlanta. Maybe it was Tua. And then obviously Tampa's back up with Daniels, and then Chicago's back up.
00:21:30
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:21:31
Speaker 2: I mean, that's just– hey, they don't pick their schedule, blah, blah, blah. But it's like you have to factor in their defense. which we talked about was going to struggle this year, hasn't played a true, legit starting quarterback with a great offense yet this season. So, yeah, the pros are all over Dallas. The public's all over Green Bay. And it's just they overlook the whole season. They just look what happened last week, right? Dallas got embarrassed. Green Bay, best game of the season. Jordan Love played out of this world. So, not shocked to see that. And if you want to play it safe and just take the over, I get that. But I just, I think, Dallas defense is going to be better than they've looked, and I think this is a great, great matchup for this Dallas offense to get right after such an embarrassing loss the previous week against Tampa. I mean, their offense really did struggle. That was a lot on deck. So, yeah, looking here at this matchup, I get why the money's coming on Green Bay. It's just another line where I'm shocked it's not down to a pick. So I think you're still getting good value here if you get plus one and a half or take the money line on Dallas. It's just too much overreaction to the Green Bay's win the previous week.
00:22:33
Speaker 1: Agree. Arizona, Los Angeles Rams. I had bet into Arizona at 13 and a half. You came around and you're on the Rams as a big number, a big favorite at home in the division. You had all the stats to back it up. You kind of convinced me. A stat from our friends at Killer Sports that makes me completely want to buy out of the Cardinals, which I had already done at 12 and a half. 11 plus point favorites when the total is over 47. Past several years, 86. And 48. The total on this game is 51. So another trend that backs up taking the Rams as big favorites this afternoon.
00:23:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, hate the bet, hate doing it, but you got to bet the Rams. It's a long-term winner. I'm trying to break my old habits.
00:23:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to self-scout. You got to self-scout.
00:23:25
Speaker 2: Because it's one of the Fisher lines of the week, like I've talked about all– I knew all the teasers, all the money would be coming in on the Rams. And this number, like Chad said, it was 13 and a half. It came down. It's not budged now. It's just sat at 12 and a half the rest of the week. So yeah, I, I, I'm trying to fight against everything instinctually. That's telling me this is, this is a Cardinal side. It's a Cardinal spot, but yeah, the data, the numbers back up this Rams team and you expect them to get right here and just steamroll this team, right? They've just, They've had such a hard schedule to start the year, this Rams team, and they've had so many close, bad losses. It just feels like the exact type of game where they face the Giants in Week 2, where it's just they roll them, right? Maybe it's close to the very beginning, but Stafford and the offense gets going. Cardinals get a couple three-and-outs, and that's all she wrote. So that's what we're hoping for here. We'll know pretty quickly. If the game starts and Cardinals drive the field to get a touchdown, the Rams drive the field to kick a couple field goals, yeah, our bet's dead. We know the deal about these big favorites, but Um, yeah, the, the, the underlying numbers just really favor this Rams team and taking these big favorites at this point.
00:24:32
Speaker 1: Last one. I want to get your take on this Chicago in the contest is down to a half. It most sports books against Atlanta on the road, Chicago was minus one and a half minus one. Caleb is starting this game. Everyone still seems to be piling in on Atlanta. You mentioned it at the top of the show professionals coming in on the Falcons. I mean, the Bears just got crushed as a favorite. I get the sentiment this defense is so bad that Michael Penix and Drake London can light it up. I've been betting into the Bears on this. I bet them at three, got a bad number. I bet them at plus a half, got the best of the number. And I'm still confused as to why the Bears are getting zero respect in this game. Road favorites... that failed to cover by 25 points in their previous game, 50 and 27 against the spread since 2017. Thank you, Killer Sports. We knew that stat blind before we even started thinking about this game. That's why I was betting the Bears at minus three, because they got beaten so badly. Of course, there was going to be value on the Bears. I'm surprised this line is moving against them so aggressively.
00:25:49
Speaker 2: I'm not just because it is, it is Penix, right? Penix is going to be back. And you've seen Penix this year when he plays and he's healthy and he has time to pass in the pocket. He's good. You guys don't have a pass rush. You don't have, the Bears have nothing but hope on defense, right? They have to hope for a turnover and it's worked this year, right? The games you guys have won, you've gotten the punch outs, you've gotten the picks like that's, you can live and die that way. Especially if you have a DC, like you do, that's very aggressive because he knows he doesn't have the guys. So, In this matchup, I look at this Falcons team and the way they've had pressure rate. They've been really good on the D-line for Atlanta, getting pressure on quarterbacks. We talked, Terrell's out of this game. Their number one corner's out. Most teams, that's a big deal. The Bears are weird this year. They don't have a number one. Luther Burden's underachieved. Colson Loveland's underachieved. Roma Dunzey's underachieved. They're not really– they don't put fear into your heart. This is still a Bears team that they've been a run-first team I think Menunga is out as well. So that is a big deal where Swift isn't battling through his own injuries. Now you're down Menunga. It's a lot to ask of Caleb for his first game back. This isn't just an easy game in any sense of the matter. He's walking into a very hostile environment against a team that you could say, I mean, other than Washington, the Giants, Eagles, maybe two last week had the worst loss, but it's right up there. The Falcons had that game against the Ravens and totally blew a fourth quarter lead. I mean, you talk about Pennix, you know, you think of that Jake Matthews touchdown off his back foot, like there's so many back foot throws he missed, you know, even to the running back. You said B. John Robinson wide open too for a touchdown. That cost in that game where they win that, this number is what? Minus three, minus three and a half potentially for the Atlanta. So I think it was really interesting. The books took a stand here on Chicago. The public has joined them for the most part on Chicago where the pros have just been hammering Atlanta. So, I'm like you. I wanted to be on Chicago here, but it's just, I respect the pros here. There's so many other games on the board I'll invest in. I'll just stay away from it. I'm like, you've already been in Chicago, but I'm not invested anymore into it. I just, there's something off about this number here. And yeah, very telling this number hasn't budged since Caleb got announced. Caleb got announced. Yeah. Kind of himself. It wasn't really so much the team. I think he went on like Instagram and posted some stuff where no one really knew if he was going to play or not. And he kind of said he was, and the number didn't budge. Like the books had already kind of built it in. So, Really interesting line movement this week with that number where minus three with Caleb made sense. The fact that it doesn't budge from minus one and a half just shows how much resistance there is with professional money.
00:28:26
Speaker 1: Yeah. To me, it's one of the most fascinating lines of the week. Let's get an update on your biggest bets right now.
00:28:37
Speaker 2: Oh, man. I mean, at a number people can get, I would still say Vegas I still like. When we talk about commanders, still really like them. Still would take the Chargers a plus 7.5 as well. For the 1 p.m. games, I mean, it's gross, but I am still on the Patriots minus 7.5.
00:28:56
Speaker 1: Interesting.
00:28:57
Speaker 2: Yeah. People ask a lot about the Colts because we took them survivor. I've actually kind of cowered out on that. I've taken more shares of the Rams because the Colts play at home Miami in a couple weeks. So a lot of people like game theory stuff, they want to take the Colts with that. Now you've seen professional money coming on Tennessee, which I'm shocked by.
00:29:16
Speaker 1: I'm shocked. That number is down to six and a half. Strong six and a half.
00:29:20
Speaker 2: Some really sharp books offshore now are down to six. So, you know, they have a read on it. I just– I can't believe that where I get it, right? If Warren's out for the Colts, their number one tight end, their number one receiving option, that's fair. Like they're bent into that where it's going to be a much tighter, closer game. Okay, that's fair. And if that's enough to scare you off them and survivor i totally get it um that was when i jumped out to me where yeah like i have a big big money invested in the colts um with carolina and my teasers from earlier in the week with the colts and new england patriots from teaser in the week so Yeah, Colts losing that game outright would be pretty damning for me. I think South Slope's a crazy stat. Game Ward will join Troy Aikman as one of the few players to start their career 0-8 against their division or 0-10, whatever it is. Yeah, just another line that jumps out, though, that people don't want to bet. I'm telling you, I'm betting it. I don't know how heavy I'm going to bet into it, but just for these 1 p.m. games, I'm betting the Saints. I know it's disgusting. And I'm glad me and Chad aren't talking contest-wise because I have zero faith in them. Simply playing the number and playing the situation where I just think Jameis Winston and the Giants team is not that good. And for all the naysayers about how bad the Saints team is, they're still healthier and more complete team than the Giants team. So, yeah, for biggest bets, really, it really comes down to the 4 p.m. games. If the Raiders and the Chargers lose today on the spread– My day is washed, honestly. That's really where most of my money is heavily invested in today.
00:30:51
Speaker 1: Well, it's where most of our psychic energy is invested as well in the contest because Raiders are Chad's choice. Chargers are brass balls. Our final five picks are going to be, don't forget, we did lock in on Thursday, so we got the best of some numbers here. Carolina Panthers, minus a half. They're currently three and a half in the contest. We locked in on Thursday. The Pittsburgh Steelers minus two and a half. The Cleveland Browns plus five and a half. They are currently four and a half. We locked them in on Thursday. The Los Angeles Chargers plus eight and a half. Who am I missing there? What did I miss? I miss the, oh, the Raiders plus four and a half. against the Buffalo Bills. So that is our final five. Panthers, Steelers, Browns, Raiders, and Chargers. We will be back.
00:31:59
Speaker 2: And what I just want to say to people, if you want to see the picks, like I've said all year, Chad puts these picks in. There's no messing around. You can go look in the contest, click on our names. You can see the lines. We're not I know the lines just look off. Like Chad said, we lock these in literally at 11 a.m. or 12 a.m. Thursday morning. So I get it. I get the doubt and the hate. But if you go to our contest, you click on Chad's name, it literally will pop up with all our picks.
00:32:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chad and Simon BFFs is our name in the contest. We're not trying to hide it from anybody. That's our show. We will be back tonight, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, live on the Sharp or Square YouTube channel. with our instant NFL reactions after the late afternoon games. This has been Sharper Square, presented by Apollo Market. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
00:33:03
Speaker 3: I'm not a golf pro, but I love this game just like you do. But there are two things that burn me up, and I'm talking about bad golf etiquette and slow play. This is called the practice tee for good reason. This is where you're supposed to work on your swing, not out there. So let's do our practicing right here on the range, and let's shorten that pre-shot routine for the good of the game.
