Farming, Not Forecasting: Malcolm Shaw on Investing in Juniors without Predicting Commodity Prices

Malcolm Shaw is a former geologist, sell-side analyst and hedge fund energy and mining investor. He is a proven junior resource stock picker and has invested for himself since the end of 2011. This is his first ever podcast interview. Malcolm keeps a low profile and grows his newsletter, The Circle, almost entirely by word of mouth. Bill and Malcolm first crossed paths on a due diligence call about five years ago.
They cover Malcolm's path from Calgary geologist to Bay Street, why he doesn't try to call commodity prices, how he sizes and exits positions, and the stories behind his biggest winners and one current loser. In this MSE episode, Malcolm explains his rational approach to junior resource speculation. Listen and learn!

00:00 Intro
00:29 Meet Malcolm Shaw
01:09 From Geologist to Analyst
02:35 Sell Side vs Buy Side
04:05 Going Independent
05:38 Why Start a Newsletter
09:51 No Forecasting Just Positioning
13:36 Deal Flow and Watchlists
16:40 Holding Periods and Exits
18:56 Portfolio Construction and Big Bets
21:32 Tenaz Energy Case Study
26:19 Mining Winner Alpha Minerals
29:27 Developers and Production Plays
32:05 Marketing and Sector Allocation
34:22 Niche Metals and Competence
36:05 Network Driven Due Diligence
38:17 Biggest Loser Lessons
Malcolm’s newsletter: https://www.thecircle.ca/
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