WEBVTT
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We've had a lot of folks all over the internet
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be like, Marvel is failing, Marvel is failing,
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and Marvel, oh, it's there, there, there. The
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thing about us fans is first off, we have weird
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short -term memory and we also have some weird
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Mandela effects that kind of happen with us.
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And so I want to talk about the business of the
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MCU as a franchise and what they really did.
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And because I'm a big nerd, I made a big spreadsheet,
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okay, yesterday. Why? Because I'm a nerd. Okay.
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So we're going to talk about this for a second,
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but just to kind of demonstrate my point, right?
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I'm going to bring up a movie, a couple of movies
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and nobody, no looking it up. All right. Okay.
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But what I want to bring up is a couple of points
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and Jay, without looking it up, how much move
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money, right? Did Captain America, the first
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Avenger, you remember Captain America, the first
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Avenger. That was a great movie. Right. It's
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great. Yeah. How much did it do at the box office?
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Oh, God, what year did that come out? Box office.
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2010. Oh, God, I don't know. 2010. OK, so that
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was early. That was that was definitely early.
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I'm going to say. I feel like it's going to be
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a very low number. I'm going to say 80. I'm going
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to say 80 million. OK, you're way off there.
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Right. But it did it did three hundred and seventy
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million and some change. Right. OK. Which was
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way less than Iron Man. Way less than stuff.
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Yeah. Chat was like five hundred billion. Nope.
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Three hundred and seventy, which, by the way,
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is less than Captain America, Brave New World
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or the Thunderbolts made in the box office. Right.
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It made less money than Thunderbolts did or Cap
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four. Okay, this is why I say if I would have
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said to you what made more money Captain America
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first Avenger or Captain America brave new world.
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What is your instinct? Say Captain America brave
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new world. Yeah, how much money did Captain Marvel
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make everybody wants to say Captain Marvel was
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a big old flop How much money did Captain Marvel
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make in the box office? Absolutely I I thought
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it was a flop. Everyone was mad. They're like,
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oh, we have a female superhero. Females can't
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be superheroes. Oh, this is so mad where it's
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woke. How much did Captain Marvel make at the
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box office? Well, now I now I'm worried about
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my numbers. Four hundred million. One point one
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billion dollars. Oh, wow. That is actually really
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surprising. OK, Captain Marvel. made $1 .1 billion
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in the box office. We don't remember. So now
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we're going to bring up my cool, cool spreadsheet.
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And we're going to look at the MCU phase by phase
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real quick. And what I did is I tallied every
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box office that has been done by phase. And how
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much money Marvel averaged per film by phase.
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We're going to talk about this real quick, okay?
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Phase one, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Iron Man
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2, Thor, Captain America, and the Avengers to
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close out phase one, right? Incredible Hulk,
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not necessarily a flop per se, okay? Because
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the budget wasn't that high. Not huge they averaged
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635 million per movie most of that dragged up
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by the 1 .5 billion that the Avengers made Okay
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Phase two it gets higher. We got Iron Man 3 Thor
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the Dark World, right? Captain America Winter
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Soldier Guardians of the Galaxy Avengers Age
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of Ultron and Ant -Man. Okay, and with it with
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phase two, they average 878 million eight almost
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eight hundred seventy nine million per flick
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okay now we keep going phase three this is where
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marvel hits its stride and this is where i think
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the mandela effect comes into play okay because
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phase three was banger after banger after banger
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after banger cap civil war dr strange guardians
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2 spider -man homecoming thor ragnarok black
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panther uh Avengers Infinity War, Ant -Man of
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the Wasp, Captain Marvel, Avengers Endgame, Spider
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-Man Far From Home. That was, that was phase
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three. Right? And they just blew it up. Okay?
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They just, it was huge. Huge. Okay? Because you
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had, what, six movies in phase three that did
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more than a billion dollars. Including Captain
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Marvel. Right? Phase four, they take, now here's
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the thing, and this is the thing that I want
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people to think about for the business of this
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thing. You weren't going to redo phase three
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in phase four, okay? Like you hit such a stride
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in phase three that anything was going to be
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a letdown after phase four, or after phase three.
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It just was. So you had Black Widow, Shang -Chi,
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Eternals, which I think Marvel really counts
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as its first financial flop because the budget
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was massive. on the Eternals and it did not do
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well in the box office. Only $402 million. Spider
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-Man, No Way Home, Doctor Strange, Will 2 vs.
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Madness, Thor, Love and Thunder, Black Panther,
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Wakanda Forever. That's all your Phase Four movies.
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$815 million per film. Okay. And then we get
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into Phase Five, which is the one that everybody
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kind of bluzz on, right? Ant -Man and the Wasp,
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Quantum Media, Guardians 3, Right? The Marvels,
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which did flop, it was their second real flop.
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Deadpool and Wolverine, Captain America Brave
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New World, and Thunderbolts. They're still averaging
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in that phase $610 million per film. Right? That's
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a lot of money. It's a lot of money. Is it a
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step down? Absolutely. Is Marvel worried about
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it? No. No, they're not. Not really. And now
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you've got the start of phase six, which started
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with Fantastic Four New Steps. I have got this
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highlighted at 491 million because it's not out
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of theaters yet, right? So as of yesterday, it
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was at 491 million, 904, 286. I think it's going
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to break 500, right? By the time it leaves this
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theatrical run. Yeah. So. For every film that
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they have made, they have gotten a total box
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office of $32 ,475 ,550 ,762 in 37 movies. $32
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billion. That is an average of $877 ,717 ,588
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per movie. Which brings me to kind of my greater
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point, okay Which is this Marvel is arguably
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the most successful film franchise that's ever
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been done There are 37 movies in and they've
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made 32 billion dollars, right? No, but I I cannot
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think of a scenario of anybody who's going to
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make that kind of a franchise run that Kevin
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Feige did and is still doing right like it's
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just it's not that now before chat hits me because
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i knew i knew somebody chat was going to go what
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about star wars okay star wars is the movie That
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Star Wars is the franchise that you could argue
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Has done better financially, right? Looking at
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the 11 wide release Star Wars movies that have
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been released. They've there's 11 movies They've
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grossed ten point three billion dollars for an
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average of nine hundred and forty million per
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movie Okay You can make an argument for Star
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Wars right but but You can make an argument for
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Star Wars But they don't have the track run of
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37 films that Marvel has and Star Wars has been
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around since 1977 the MCU started 2008 Okay in
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17 years. They've made 32 billion dollars. So
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what's that about 1 .8 billion a year in revenue?
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So so that's where where I want to kick it over
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to you Jay, right? And ask, when I break it down
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this way, and based on kind of a lot of the commentary
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we've heard and things like that, what does this
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make you think about this? As far as franchises
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go, putting your MBA, working on MBA hat on.
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Well, I would say, I think it would be Oh, I
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think it'd be a little unfair only to look at
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movies because I will say I do remember Star
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Wars when I was a kid and Episode 1 2 3 came
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out There was so much merch that came along with
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it like Star Wars Pepsi cans. That's people still
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have by the way Star Wars everything So much
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Star Wars So I think Star Wars also brought in
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a lot of merch. Star Wars also has this like
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never ending spinoff TV series going on right
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now, both animated and live action. Looking just
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at movies, I would say Star Wars should be doing
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better. With less movies, because. They did start
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in nineteen seventy seven. And what you're going
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to run into is now you're going to have parents
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taking their children to go see Star Wars. So
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you have that kind of already that like nostalgic
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like, oh, like I grew up watching Star Wars.
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I want to take my kids to watch Star Wars. Marvel
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coming out. What? 2010, you said. Don't super
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have that or it's not. Well established yet.
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I would say I'm here soon. I think it'll start
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kicking in but Yeah, um, that's my thought, okay
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So I'm going to address a couple of things in
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the chat really quick. People who are asking
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questions that are tangential to this. All right,
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Superman, which again has not finished this theatrical
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run. You can still see it in theaters. As of
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today is at six hundred and six million six fifty
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eight seven ninety two worldwide. So it's well
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into profitability. It's 60 million over where
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it needed to be profitability wise. I think we
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talked about that a couple of weeks ago. It's
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doing fine for a brand new DCU where the DCEU
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ran the franchise into the fucking dirt, right?
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And you've got to build back a lot of goodwill
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from the audience. Superman did better than it
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needed to to do that. It's a very good start
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for the DCU. Very good start. to answer another
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question. People are talking about adjusting
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for inflation. I used to think of it that way.
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And then I hit again. I talk about this podcast
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a lot. Mr. John Campia, he does a really good
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editorial on why he doesn't use adjusted for
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inflation. And I agree with it. Right. So for
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the longer version of what I'm about to say,
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go watch his editorial on this. But the fact
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of the matter is, is the reason it's hard to
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do adjust for inflation is this. If you look
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at adjusted for inflation, people talk about
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Gone with the Wind, right? Okay. How long was
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Gone with the Wind in theaters? Probably like
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36 years, right? It was like the only movie.
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Two and a half years. It was in theaters for
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two and a half years. Nothing's in theaters for
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two and a half years. Who knows how much money
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can be made? And what that brings about is this.
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At various iterations of time, Where people spent
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money and where people spent their entertainment
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hours varied heavily, okay? Movies now are not
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just competing with other movies. It's not like
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the 1990s when episode one came out where everybody
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had a smartphone in their pocket and they could
00:13:27.379 --> 00:13:29.019
spend their time watching Netflix, YouTube and
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not leave the fucking house, right? In a post
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COVID era with the cost of movie tickets these
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days and the number of tickets that are sold,
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et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. trying to figure
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out all the various economic factors that go
00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:46.059
into should we adjust this for inflation? And
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again, if Gone With The Wind came out today,
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would it sell as many tickets as it did in the
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1930s when it came out? And I have to say the
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answer is probably no. Right. So that's why I,
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you know, using just the raw box office numbers
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is still probably just the best metric to use.
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The other question is do they do well in the
00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:13.379
theater take the Star Wars sequels because everyone
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goes to a movie like that hoping to do something
00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:18.100
good So here's the thing and this is you could
00:14:18.100 --> 00:14:20.919
pretty well bear this out If people don't like
00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:22.820
a movie, they don't go back and movies people
00:14:22.820 --> 00:14:26.799
don't go back to don't make billions Right. You
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can say rightfully that the the fandom as we
00:14:35.779 --> 00:14:39.220
move through the sequel trilogy It lost steam.
00:14:40.159 --> 00:14:44.460
Force Awakens did two billion plus. Episode eight
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only did one point three billion. Episode nine
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only did a billion. And so they went down as
00:14:53.299 --> 00:14:59.379
it went. So. Again, it's Star Wars, so everybody's
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going to it's cultural. Everyone's going to see
00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:05.320
it, but you see it with episode seven. Everybody
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went back and back and back and back and back
00:15:08.139 --> 00:15:11.360
to see episode seven Whereas you didn't get that
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kind of run back with episode eight and nine
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It was one of those were just everybody fucking
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saw it. So that's that's where I would break
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that down There's also yes somebody else brought
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this in there's a fewer second -run theaters
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I don't know if you remember this when you were
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a kid Jay But I know I know it was a thing when
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I was a kid where you had primary run theaters
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where they did their first part of their theatrical
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run and then second run theaters where After
00:15:34.759 --> 00:15:36.600
they left the primary there was still time to
00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.320
go see them in theaters a kind of budget theaters,
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right? Those don't really exist anymore. They're
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gone. Those businesses just don't happen Well,
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it also just doesn't make sense because now we
00:15:53.159 --> 00:15:57.799
Now you can get movies to streaming services
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as well as out on blu -ray or whatever a lot
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quicker than those if that's why that kind of
00:16:05.220 --> 00:16:10.379
the cheaper Market kind of for moviegoers kind
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of existed because there is such a long period
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before they would come out on VHS six months
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on average And that's the other thing is a lot
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of the the movie studios and now Disney I think
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has learned from this you'll saw it last year,
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right? Where they started extending their theatrical
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runs again and going look we're not putting this
00:16:33.990 --> 00:16:36.769
on Disney plus Thunderbolts just got to Disney
00:16:36.769 --> 00:16:42.769
plus I think this week right and They have really
00:16:42.769 --> 00:16:45.070
extended their theatrical windows and I think
00:16:45.070 --> 00:16:46.409
that that's good because a lot of the studios
00:16:46.409 --> 00:16:49.580
have trained the audience Eh, I'll just wait
00:16:49.580 --> 00:16:51.960
until it comes to streaming in two months, which
00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:54.879
I think is one of the reasons why the raw number
00:16:54.879 --> 00:17:01.139
of tickets go down, right? And yeah, movie theaters
00:17:01.139 --> 00:17:03.159
these days are a real hard proposition when the
00:17:03.159 --> 00:17:04.640
cost of tickets, half the cost of voting in the
00:17:04.640 --> 00:17:06.039
movie, I'd rather just wait and buy the movie.
00:17:06.180 --> 00:17:08.000
And I think that that's a lot of people's attitude
00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.900
now. And I think that's why you're seeing certain
00:17:10.900 --> 00:17:14.559
movies flop, right? Where unless it's like an
00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:18.440
event movie, not as many people are going. Right.
00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:20.380
I've seen a lot of good movies in the in the
00:17:20.380 --> 00:17:22.420
theaters. We've talked about this much this year
00:17:22.420 --> 00:17:25.160
that were great movies that fucking nobody saw.
00:17:28.380 --> 00:17:34.359
That sucks. So but would you argue, do you think
00:17:34.359 --> 00:17:37.240
that what Feige has done with Marvel can be replicated?
00:17:38.599 --> 00:17:42.700
Can be replicated. Thirty seven movies averaging
00:17:42.700 --> 00:17:46.019
almost a billion dollars a movie, almost 900
00:17:46.019 --> 00:17:51.400
million, let's be fair. I, I think it, I personally
00:17:51.400 --> 00:17:55.839
think it could, but I don't think anyone is going
00:17:55.839 --> 00:18:02.240
to have the drive to do it, to be honest, because
00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:06.140
to go through that many movies, I mean, keep
00:18:06.140 --> 00:18:09.039
in mind a lot of people like to kind of come
00:18:09.039 --> 00:18:12.980
in, get their success off of one project or maybe
00:18:12.980 --> 00:18:15.420
a couple of projects. They move on to something
00:18:15.420 --> 00:18:22.160
else. And you need some sort of consistency.
00:18:22.779 --> 00:18:26.000
And I think that's kind of what DC has kind of
00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:30.759
really struggled with. But yeah, I think it could
00:18:30.759 --> 00:18:33.740
be done. I don't think anyone actually wants
00:18:33.740 --> 00:18:36.839
to put in the work to do it, though. That makes
00:18:36.839 --> 00:18:41.420
sense. It absolutely makes sense. And again,
00:18:41.559 --> 00:18:44.640
that's why, again, I could say you can arguably
00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:47.980
say that the MCU is the most the most successful
00:18:47.980 --> 00:18:52.940
franchise of all time. Right. It just is. And
00:18:52.940 --> 00:18:56.119
anybody who thinks that, you know, the other
00:18:56.119 --> 00:18:57.559
thing I wanted to break down on this, and this
00:18:57.559 --> 00:19:00.119
is, again, why I think it is. Let's look at what's
00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:06.779
coming. All right. Phase six. OK. We have Fantastic
00:19:06.779 --> 00:19:10.339
Four First Steps, which is out. Right. The next
00:19:10.339 --> 00:19:13.299
movie is Spider -Man Brand New Day. Does anybody
00:19:13.299 --> 00:19:15.240
think that movie is not going to make a billion
00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:28.599
dollars? Avengers Doomsday. So far, an Avengers
00:19:28.599 --> 00:19:34.700
movie has never not made a billion dollars. Marvel
00:19:34.700 --> 00:19:38.700
has a hold spot on a movie, on a film next July
00:19:38.700 --> 00:19:41.329
that nobody knows what it is. Nobody knows if
00:19:41.329 --> 00:19:46.089
it's a hold spot or what they're doing. I suspect
00:19:46.089 --> 00:19:49.410
it's Doctor Strange 3. Right. And it's going
00:19:49.410 --> 00:19:51.170
to come out between Doomsday and Secret Wars,
00:19:51.230 --> 00:19:54.390
much like Ant -Man and the Wasp came out between
00:19:54.390 --> 00:19:57.150
Infinity War and Endgame and introduced the quantum
00:19:57.150 --> 00:19:58.769
tunnel and the quantum realm and all the shit
00:19:58.769 --> 00:20:03.890
they needed for for Endgame. I think it's I think
00:20:03.890 --> 00:20:05.869
it's the next Doctor Strange. But again, and
00:20:05.869 --> 00:20:07.490
do you think Avengers Secret Wars is not going
00:20:07.490 --> 00:20:15.279
to make a billion dollars? Okay They're gonna
00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:16.819
average more than a billion dollars in phase
00:20:16.819 --> 00:20:24.619
six per movie Okay, he's gonna be up right around
00:20:24.619 --> 00:20:26.880
40 billion by the time he gets to the end of
00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:35.920
phase six So Yeah, anyway, let us know what you
00:20:35.920 --> 00:20:39.210
think in the comments below Do you think it's
00:20:39.210 --> 00:20:41.789
the most successful franchise of all time or
00:20:41.789 --> 00:20:44.190
what do you guys think? Let us know
00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:02.779
We've had a lot of folks all over the internet
00:00:02.779 --> 00:00:05.839
be like, Marvel is failing, Marvel is failing,
00:00:06.280 --> 00:00:08.300
and Marvel, oh, it's there, there, there. The
00:00:08.300 --> 00:00:11.580
thing about us fans is first off, we have weird
00:00:11.580 --> 00:00:14.539
short -term memory and we also have some weird
00:00:14.539 --> 00:00:16.559
Mandela effects that kind of happen with us.
00:00:16.839 --> 00:00:19.739
And so I want to talk about the business of the
00:00:19.739 --> 00:00:23.260
MCU as a franchise and what they really did.
00:00:23.460 --> 00:00:26.739
And because I'm a big nerd, I made a big spreadsheet,
00:00:26.739 --> 00:00:33.990
okay, yesterday. Why? Because I'm a nerd. Okay.
00:00:34.250 --> 00:00:36.130
So we're going to talk about this for a second,
00:00:36.170 --> 00:00:38.929
but just to kind of demonstrate my point, right?
00:00:39.329 --> 00:00:44.109
I'm going to bring up a movie, a couple of movies
00:00:44.109 --> 00:00:47.750
and nobody, no looking it up. All right. Okay.
00:00:48.429 --> 00:00:52.149
But what I want to bring up is a couple of points
00:00:52.149 --> 00:00:55.929
and Jay, without looking it up, how much move
00:00:55.929 --> 00:01:00.060
money, right? Did Captain America, the first
00:01:00.060 --> 00:01:01.960
Avenger, you remember Captain America, the first
00:01:01.960 --> 00:01:04.340
Avenger. That was a great movie. Right. It's
00:01:04.340 --> 00:01:06.799
great. Yeah. How much did it do at the box office?
00:01:08.840 --> 00:01:12.480
Oh, God, what year did that come out? Box office.
00:01:12.819 --> 00:01:17.659
2010. Oh, God, I don't know. 2010. OK, so that
00:01:17.659 --> 00:01:20.260
was early. That was that was definitely early.
00:01:23.920 --> 00:01:26.870
I'm going to say. I feel like it's going to be
00:01:26.870 --> 00:01:29.430
a very low number. I'm going to say 80. I'm going
00:01:29.430 --> 00:01:31.549
to say 80 million. OK, you're way off there.
00:01:31.549 --> 00:01:34.870
Right. But it did it did three hundred and seventy
00:01:34.870 --> 00:01:37.670
million and some change. Right. OK. Which was
00:01:37.670 --> 00:01:40.510
way less than Iron Man. Way less than stuff.
00:01:40.609 --> 00:01:42.290
Yeah. Chat was like five hundred billion. Nope.
00:01:42.450 --> 00:01:44.689
Three hundred and seventy, which, by the way,
00:01:44.890 --> 00:01:47.230
is less than Captain America, Brave New World
00:01:47.230 --> 00:01:50.430
or the Thunderbolts made in the box office. Right.
00:01:50.569 --> 00:01:54.290
It made less money than Thunderbolts did or Cap
00:01:54.290 --> 00:01:57.879
four. Okay, this is why I say if I would have
00:01:57.879 --> 00:02:00.420
said to you what made more money Captain America
00:02:00.420 --> 00:02:02.620
first Avenger or Captain America brave new world.
00:02:02.680 --> 00:02:09.219
What is your instinct? Say Captain America brave
00:02:09.219 --> 00:02:11.979
new world. Yeah, how much money did Captain Marvel
00:02:11.979 --> 00:02:14.139
make everybody wants to say Captain Marvel was
00:02:14.139 --> 00:02:16.960
a big old flop How much money did Captain Marvel
00:02:16.960 --> 00:02:20.050
make in the box office? Absolutely I I thought
00:02:20.050 --> 00:02:22.370
it was a flop. Everyone was mad. They're like,
00:02:22.449 --> 00:02:25.210
oh, we have a female superhero. Females can't
00:02:25.210 --> 00:02:28.530
be superheroes. Oh, this is so mad where it's
00:02:28.530 --> 00:02:30.729
woke. How much did Captain Marvel make at the
00:02:30.729 --> 00:02:35.210
box office? Well, now I now I'm worried about
00:02:35.210 --> 00:02:41.330
my numbers. Four hundred million. One point one
00:02:41.330 --> 00:02:45.430
billion dollars. Oh, wow. That is actually really
00:02:45.430 --> 00:02:51.409
surprising. OK, Captain Marvel. made $1 .1 billion
00:02:51.409 --> 00:02:57.710
in the box office. We don't remember. So now
00:02:57.710 --> 00:02:59.889
we're going to bring up my cool, cool spreadsheet.
00:03:00.729 --> 00:03:02.789
And we're going to look at the MCU phase by phase
00:03:02.789 --> 00:03:05.789
real quick. And what I did is I tallied every
00:03:05.789 --> 00:03:09.490
box office that has been done by phase. And how
00:03:09.490 --> 00:03:13.530
much money Marvel averaged per film by phase.
00:03:16.879 --> 00:03:19.680
We're going to talk about this real quick, okay?
00:03:19.939 --> 00:03:21.979
Phase one, Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Iron Man
00:03:21.979 --> 00:03:25.340
2, Thor, Captain America, and the Avengers to
00:03:25.340 --> 00:03:29.280
close out phase one, right? Incredible Hulk,
00:03:29.860 --> 00:03:33.439
not necessarily a flop per se, okay? Because
00:03:33.439 --> 00:03:40.659
the budget wasn't that high. Not huge they averaged
00:03:40.659 --> 00:03:44.280
635 million per movie most of that dragged up
00:03:44.280 --> 00:03:49.020
by the 1 .5 billion that the Avengers made Okay
00:03:49.020 --> 00:03:53.860
Phase two it gets higher. We got Iron Man 3 Thor
00:03:53.860 --> 00:03:56.939
the Dark World, right? Captain America Winter
00:03:56.939 --> 00:03:58.900
Soldier Guardians of the Galaxy Avengers Age
00:03:58.900 --> 00:04:02.539
of Ultron and Ant -Man. Okay, and with it with
00:04:02.539 --> 00:04:06.259
phase two, they average 878 million eight almost
00:04:06.259 --> 00:04:09.849
eight hundred seventy nine million per flick
00:04:09.849 --> 00:04:14.530
okay now we keep going phase three this is where
00:04:14.530 --> 00:04:17.029
marvel hits its stride and this is where i think
00:04:17.029 --> 00:04:20.730
the mandela effect comes into play okay because
00:04:20.730 --> 00:04:24.709
phase three was banger after banger after banger
00:04:24.709 --> 00:04:27.970
after banger cap civil war dr strange guardians
00:04:27.970 --> 00:04:31.310
2 spider -man homecoming thor ragnarok black
00:04:31.310 --> 00:04:34.970
panther uh Avengers Infinity War, Ant -Man of
00:04:34.970 --> 00:04:37.730
the Wasp, Captain Marvel, Avengers Endgame, Spider
00:04:37.730 --> 00:04:40.470
-Man Far From Home. That was, that was phase
00:04:40.470 --> 00:04:47.170
three. Right? And they just blew it up. Okay?
00:04:48.389 --> 00:04:54.110
They just, it was huge. Huge. Okay? Because you
00:04:54.110 --> 00:04:56.649
had, what, six movies in phase three that did
00:04:56.649 --> 00:04:59.209
more than a billion dollars. Including Captain
00:04:59.209 --> 00:05:04.569
Marvel. Right? Phase four, they take, now here's
00:05:04.569 --> 00:05:06.490
the thing, and this is the thing that I want
00:05:06.490 --> 00:05:08.810
people to think about for the business of this
00:05:08.810 --> 00:05:13.009
thing. You weren't going to redo phase three
00:05:13.009 --> 00:05:17.449
in phase four, okay? Like you hit such a stride
00:05:17.449 --> 00:05:19.490
in phase three that anything was going to be
00:05:19.490 --> 00:05:22.310
a letdown after phase four, or after phase three.
00:05:22.310 --> 00:05:25.290
It just was. So you had Black Widow, Shang -Chi,
00:05:25.290 --> 00:05:27.870
Eternals, which I think Marvel really counts
00:05:27.870 --> 00:05:30.029
as its first financial flop because the budget
00:05:30.029 --> 00:05:33.610
was massive. on the Eternals and it did not do
00:05:33.610 --> 00:05:36.649
well in the box office. Only $402 million. Spider
00:05:36.649 --> 00:05:38.410
-Man, No Way Home, Doctor Strange, Will 2 vs.
00:05:38.449 --> 00:05:40.750
Madness, Thor, Love and Thunder, Black Panther,
00:05:40.949 --> 00:05:42.529
Wakanda Forever. That's all your Phase Four movies.
00:05:43.490 --> 00:05:49.089
$815 million per film. Okay. And then we get
00:05:49.089 --> 00:05:51.910
into Phase Five, which is the one that everybody
00:05:51.910 --> 00:05:55.449
kind of bluzz on, right? Ant -Man and the Wasp,
00:05:55.569 --> 00:05:59.620
Quantum Media, Guardians 3, Right? The Marvels,
00:05:59.620 --> 00:06:02.019
which did flop, it was their second real flop.
00:06:03.139 --> 00:06:05.000
Deadpool and Wolverine, Captain America Brave
00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:08.060
New World, and Thunderbolts. They're still averaging
00:06:08.060 --> 00:06:15.199
in that phase $610 million per film. Right? That's
00:06:15.199 --> 00:06:19.240
a lot of money. It's a lot of money. Is it a
00:06:19.240 --> 00:06:22.120
step down? Absolutely. Is Marvel worried about
00:06:22.120 --> 00:06:27.319
it? No. No, they're not. Not really. And now
00:06:27.319 --> 00:06:28.759
you've got the start of phase six, which started
00:06:28.759 --> 00:06:30.800
with Fantastic Four New Steps. I have got this
00:06:30.800 --> 00:06:34.019
highlighted at 491 million because it's not out
00:06:34.019 --> 00:06:36.899
of theaters yet, right? So as of yesterday, it
00:06:36.899 --> 00:06:40.040
was at 491 million, 904, 286. I think it's going
00:06:40.040 --> 00:06:43.240
to break 500, right? By the time it leaves this
00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:51.889
theatrical run. Yeah. So. For every film that
00:06:51.889 --> 00:06:54.949
they have made, they have gotten a total box
00:06:54.949 --> 00:07:06.430
office of $32 ,475 ,550 ,762 in 37 movies. $32
00:07:06.430 --> 00:07:15.110
billion. That is an average of $877 ,717 ,588
00:07:15.110 --> 00:07:25.259
per movie. Which brings me to kind of my greater
00:07:25.259 --> 00:07:33.860
point, okay Which is this Marvel is arguably
00:07:33.860 --> 00:07:36.079
the most successful film franchise that's ever
00:07:36.079 --> 00:07:39.560
been done There are 37 movies in and they've
00:07:39.560 --> 00:07:47.439
made 32 billion dollars, right? No, but I I cannot
00:07:47.439 --> 00:07:50.800
think of a scenario of anybody who's going to
00:07:50.800 --> 00:07:53.879
make that kind of a franchise run that Kevin
00:07:53.879 --> 00:07:58.060
Feige did and is still doing right like it's
00:07:58.060 --> 00:08:02.000
just it's not that now before chat hits me because
00:08:02.000 --> 00:08:05.160
i knew i knew somebody chat was going to go what
00:08:05.160 --> 00:08:16.810
about star wars okay star wars is the movie That
00:08:16.810 --> 00:08:19.750
Star Wars is the franchise that you could argue
00:08:19.750 --> 00:08:24.730
Has done better financially, right? Looking at
00:08:24.730 --> 00:08:27.069
the 11 wide release Star Wars movies that have
00:08:27.069 --> 00:08:29.730
been released. They've there's 11 movies They've
00:08:29.730 --> 00:08:32.990
grossed ten point three billion dollars for an
00:08:32.990 --> 00:08:35.009
average of nine hundred and forty million per
00:08:35.009 --> 00:08:41.350
movie Okay You can make an argument for Star
00:08:41.350 --> 00:08:48.960
Wars right but but You can make an argument for
00:08:48.960 --> 00:08:52.100
Star Wars But they don't have the track run of
00:08:52.100 --> 00:08:55.940
37 films that Marvel has and Star Wars has been
00:08:55.940 --> 00:09:02.240
around since 1977 the MCU started 2008 Okay in
00:09:02.240 --> 00:09:04.779
17 years. They've made 32 billion dollars. So
00:09:04.779 --> 00:09:08.360
what's that about 1 .8 billion a year in revenue?
00:09:08.980 --> 00:09:12.779
So so that's where where I want to kick it over
00:09:12.779 --> 00:09:18.179
to you Jay, right? And ask, when I break it down
00:09:18.179 --> 00:09:20.820
this way, and based on kind of a lot of the commentary
00:09:20.820 --> 00:09:23.440
we've heard and things like that, what does this
00:09:23.440 --> 00:09:30.299
make you think about this? As far as franchises
00:09:30.299 --> 00:09:34.419
go, putting your MBA, working on MBA hat on.
00:09:38.460 --> 00:09:46.779
Well, I would say, I think it would be Oh, I
00:09:46.779 --> 00:09:49.120
think it'd be a little unfair only to look at
00:09:49.120 --> 00:09:54.960
movies because I will say I do remember Star
00:09:54.960 --> 00:09:58.940
Wars when I was a kid and Episode 1 2 3 came
00:09:58.940 --> 00:10:03.299
out There was so much merch that came along with
00:10:03.299 --> 00:10:07.019
it like Star Wars Pepsi cans. That's people still
00:10:07.019 --> 00:10:12.720
have by the way Star Wars everything So much
00:10:12.720 --> 00:10:15.909
Star Wars So I think Star Wars also brought in
00:10:15.909 --> 00:10:20.570
a lot of merch. Star Wars also has this like
00:10:20.570 --> 00:10:23.950
never ending spinoff TV series going on right
00:10:23.950 --> 00:10:31.350
now, both animated and live action. Looking just
00:10:31.350 --> 00:10:36.850
at movies, I would say Star Wars should be doing
00:10:36.850 --> 00:10:43.139
better. With less movies, because. They did start
00:10:43.139 --> 00:10:45.279
in nineteen seventy seven. And what you're going
00:10:45.279 --> 00:10:48.940
to run into is now you're going to have parents
00:10:48.940 --> 00:10:52.080
taking their children to go see Star Wars. So
00:10:52.080 --> 00:10:55.120
you have that kind of already that like nostalgic
00:10:55.120 --> 00:10:57.759
like, oh, like I grew up watching Star Wars.
00:10:57.840 --> 00:11:01.039
I want to take my kids to watch Star Wars. Marvel
00:11:01.039 --> 00:11:07.120
coming out. What? 2010, you said. Don't super
00:11:07.120 --> 00:11:11.529
have that or it's not. Well established yet.
00:11:11.570 --> 00:11:15.629
I would say I'm here soon. I think it'll start
00:11:15.629 --> 00:11:23.830
kicking in but Yeah, um, that's my thought, okay
00:11:24.350 --> 00:11:27.070
So I'm going to address a couple of things in
00:11:27.070 --> 00:11:28.909
the chat really quick. People who are asking
00:11:28.909 --> 00:11:31.769
questions that are tangential to this. All right,
00:11:31.929 --> 00:11:33.909
Superman, which again has not finished this theatrical
00:11:33.909 --> 00:11:36.169
run. You can still see it in theaters. As of
00:11:36.169 --> 00:11:39.169
today is at six hundred and six million six fifty
00:11:39.169 --> 00:11:43.049
eight seven ninety two worldwide. So it's well
00:11:43.049 --> 00:11:46.129
into profitability. It's 60 million over where
00:11:46.129 --> 00:11:47.950
it needed to be profitability wise. I think we
00:11:47.950 --> 00:11:51.029
talked about that a couple of weeks ago. It's
00:11:51.029 --> 00:11:56.370
doing fine for a brand new DCU where the DCEU
00:11:56.370 --> 00:11:59.929
ran the franchise into the fucking dirt, right?
00:11:59.990 --> 00:12:02.450
And you've got to build back a lot of goodwill
00:12:02.450 --> 00:12:07.889
from the audience. Superman did better than it
00:12:07.889 --> 00:12:11.669
needed to to do that. It's a very good start
00:12:11.669 --> 00:12:17.750
for the DCU. Very good start. to answer another
00:12:17.750 --> 00:12:19.529
question. People are talking about adjusting
00:12:19.529 --> 00:12:22.889
for inflation. I used to think of it that way.
00:12:23.190 --> 00:12:25.750
And then I hit again. I talk about this podcast
00:12:25.750 --> 00:12:28.370
a lot. Mr. John Campia, he does a really good
00:12:28.370 --> 00:12:30.690
editorial on why he doesn't use adjusted for
00:12:30.690 --> 00:12:34.850
inflation. And I agree with it. Right. So for
00:12:34.850 --> 00:12:36.929
the longer version of what I'm about to say,
00:12:37.330 --> 00:12:40.149
go watch his editorial on this. But the fact
00:12:40.149 --> 00:12:43.009
of the matter is, is the reason it's hard to
00:12:43.009 --> 00:12:46.090
do adjust for inflation is this. If you look
00:12:46.090 --> 00:12:47.990
at adjusted for inflation, people talk about
00:12:47.990 --> 00:12:51.370
Gone with the Wind, right? Okay. How long was
00:12:51.370 --> 00:12:55.490
Gone with the Wind in theaters? Probably like
00:12:55.490 --> 00:12:57.450
36 years, right? It was like the only movie.
00:12:57.549 --> 00:13:01.730
Two and a half years. It was in theaters for
00:13:01.730 --> 00:13:03.649
two and a half years. Nothing's in theaters for
00:13:03.649 --> 00:13:05.350
two and a half years. Who knows how much money
00:13:05.350 --> 00:13:07.649
can be made? And what that brings about is this.
00:13:08.149 --> 00:13:12.399
At various iterations of time, Where people spent
00:13:12.399 --> 00:13:14.460
money and where people spent their entertainment
00:13:14.460 --> 00:13:20.899
hours varied heavily, okay? Movies now are not
00:13:20.899 --> 00:13:23.039
just competing with other movies. It's not like
00:13:23.039 --> 00:13:25.899
the 1990s when episode one came out where everybody
00:13:25.899 --> 00:13:27.379
had a smartphone in their pocket and they could
00:13:27.379 --> 00:13:29.019
spend their time watching Netflix, YouTube and
00:13:29.019 --> 00:13:32.259
not leave the fucking house, right? In a post
00:13:32.259 --> 00:13:34.559
COVID era with the cost of movie tickets these
00:13:34.559 --> 00:13:36.139
days and the number of tickets that are sold,
00:13:36.279 --> 00:13:38.940
et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. trying to figure
00:13:38.940 --> 00:13:42.440
out all the various economic factors that go
00:13:42.440 --> 00:13:46.059
into should we adjust this for inflation? And
00:13:46.059 --> 00:13:49.259
again, if Gone With The Wind came out today,
00:13:49.399 --> 00:13:52.460
would it sell as many tickets as it did in the
00:13:52.460 --> 00:13:55.659
1930s when it came out? And I have to say the
00:13:55.659 --> 00:14:00.000
answer is probably no. Right. So that's why I,
00:14:00.000 --> 00:14:02.299
you know, using just the raw box office numbers
00:14:02.299 --> 00:14:05.299
is still probably just the best metric to use.
00:14:07.919 --> 00:14:10.879
The other question is do they do well in the
00:14:10.879 --> 00:14:13.379
theater take the Star Wars sequels because everyone
00:14:13.379 --> 00:14:15.080
goes to a movie like that hoping to do something
00:14:15.080 --> 00:14:18.100
good So here's the thing and this is you could
00:14:18.100 --> 00:14:20.919
pretty well bear this out If people don't like
00:14:20.919 --> 00:14:22.820
a movie, they don't go back and movies people
00:14:22.820 --> 00:14:26.799
don't go back to don't make billions Right. You
00:14:26.799 --> 00:14:35.779
can say rightfully that the the fandom as we
00:14:35.779 --> 00:14:39.220
move through the sequel trilogy It lost steam.
00:14:40.159 --> 00:14:44.460
Force Awakens did two billion plus. Episode eight
00:14:44.460 --> 00:14:47.000
only did one point three billion. Episode nine
00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:53.299
only did a billion. And so they went down as
00:14:53.299 --> 00:14:59.379
it went. So. Again, it's Star Wars, so everybody's
00:14:59.379 --> 00:15:01.240
going to it's cultural. Everyone's going to see
00:15:01.240 --> 00:15:05.320
it, but you see it with episode seven. Everybody
00:15:05.320 --> 00:15:08.139
went back and back and back and back and back
00:15:08.139 --> 00:15:11.360
to see episode seven Whereas you didn't get that
00:15:11.360 --> 00:15:13.120
kind of run back with episode eight and nine
00:15:13.120 --> 00:15:15.419
It was one of those were just everybody fucking
00:15:15.419 --> 00:15:18.039
saw it. So that's that's where I would break
00:15:18.039 --> 00:15:22.320
that down There's also yes somebody else brought
00:15:22.320 --> 00:15:23.940
this in there's a fewer second -run theaters
00:15:23.940 --> 00:15:25.279
I don't know if you remember this when you were
00:15:25.279 --> 00:15:28.299
a kid Jay But I know I know it was a thing when
00:15:28.299 --> 00:15:30.320
I was a kid where you had primary run theaters
00:15:30.320 --> 00:15:31.779
where they did their first part of their theatrical
00:15:31.779 --> 00:15:34.759
run and then second run theaters where After
00:15:34.759 --> 00:15:36.600
they left the primary there was still time to
00:15:36.600 --> 00:15:39.320
go see them in theaters a kind of budget theaters,
00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:44.220
right? Those don't really exist anymore. They're
00:15:44.220 --> 00:15:49.460
gone. Those businesses just don't happen Well,
00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:53.159
it also just doesn't make sense because now we
00:15:53.159 --> 00:15:57.799
Now you can get movies to streaming services
00:15:57.799 --> 00:16:02.000
as well as out on blu -ray or whatever a lot
00:16:02.000 --> 00:16:05.220
quicker than those if that's why that kind of
00:16:05.220 --> 00:16:10.379
the cheaper Market kind of for moviegoers kind
00:16:10.379 --> 00:16:13.159
of existed because there is such a long period
00:16:13.159 --> 00:16:16.519
before they would come out on VHS six months
00:16:16.519 --> 00:16:21.789
on average And that's the other thing is a lot
00:16:21.789 --> 00:16:24.490
of the the movie studios and now Disney I think
00:16:24.490 --> 00:16:27.809
has learned from this you'll saw it last year,
00:16:28.250 --> 00:16:32.149
right? Where they started extending their theatrical
00:16:32.149 --> 00:16:33.990
runs again and going look we're not putting this
00:16:33.990 --> 00:16:36.769
on Disney plus Thunderbolts just got to Disney
00:16:36.769 --> 00:16:42.769
plus I think this week right and They have really
00:16:42.769 --> 00:16:45.070
extended their theatrical windows and I think
00:16:45.070 --> 00:16:46.409
that that's good because a lot of the studios
00:16:46.409 --> 00:16:49.580
have trained the audience Eh, I'll just wait
00:16:49.580 --> 00:16:51.960
until it comes to streaming in two months, which
00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:54.879
I think is one of the reasons why the raw number
00:16:54.879 --> 00:17:01.139
of tickets go down, right? And yeah, movie theaters
00:17:01.139 --> 00:17:03.159
these days are a real hard proposition when the
00:17:03.159 --> 00:17:04.640
cost of tickets, half the cost of voting in the
00:17:04.640 --> 00:17:06.039
movie, I'd rather just wait and buy the movie.
00:17:06.180 --> 00:17:08.000
And I think that that's a lot of people's attitude
00:17:08.000 --> 00:17:10.900
now. And I think that's why you're seeing certain
00:17:10.900 --> 00:17:14.559
movies flop, right? Where unless it's like an
00:17:14.559 --> 00:17:18.440
event movie, not as many people are going. Right.
00:17:18.460 --> 00:17:20.380
I've seen a lot of good movies in the in the
00:17:20.380 --> 00:17:22.420
theaters. We've talked about this much this year
00:17:22.420 --> 00:17:25.160
that were great movies that fucking nobody saw.
00:17:28.380 --> 00:17:34.359
That sucks. So but would you argue, do you think
00:17:34.359 --> 00:17:37.240
that what Feige has done with Marvel can be replicated?
00:17:38.599 --> 00:17:42.700
Can be replicated. Thirty seven movies averaging
00:17:42.700 --> 00:17:46.019
almost a billion dollars a movie, almost 900
00:17:46.019 --> 00:17:51.400
million, let's be fair. I, I think it, I personally
00:17:51.400 --> 00:17:55.839
think it could, but I don't think anyone is going
00:17:55.839 --> 00:18:02.240
to have the drive to do it, to be honest, because
00:18:02.240 --> 00:18:06.140
to go through that many movies, I mean, keep
00:18:06.140 --> 00:18:09.039
in mind a lot of people like to kind of come
00:18:09.039 --> 00:18:12.980
in, get their success off of one project or maybe
00:18:12.980 --> 00:18:15.420
a couple of projects. They move on to something
00:18:15.420 --> 00:18:22.160
else. And you need some sort of consistency.
00:18:22.779 --> 00:18:26.000
And I think that's kind of what DC has kind of
00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:30.759
really struggled with. But yeah, I think it could
00:18:30.759 --> 00:18:33.740
be done. I don't think anyone actually wants
00:18:33.740 --> 00:18:36.839
to put in the work to do it, though. That makes
00:18:36.839 --> 00:18:41.420
sense. It absolutely makes sense. And again,
00:18:41.559 --> 00:18:44.640
that's why, again, I could say you can arguably
00:18:44.640 --> 00:18:47.980
say that the MCU is the most the most successful
00:18:47.980 --> 00:18:52.940
franchise of all time. Right. It just is. And
00:18:52.940 --> 00:18:56.119
anybody who thinks that, you know, the other
00:18:56.119 --> 00:18:57.559
thing I wanted to break down on this, and this
00:18:57.559 --> 00:19:00.119
is, again, why I think it is. Let's look at what's
00:19:00.119 --> 00:19:06.779
coming. All right. Phase six. OK. We have Fantastic
00:19:06.779 --> 00:19:10.339
Four First Steps, which is out. Right. The next
00:19:10.339 --> 00:19:13.299
movie is Spider -Man Brand New Day. Does anybody
00:19:13.299 --> 00:19:15.240
think that movie is not going to make a billion
00:19:15.240 --> 00:19:28.599
dollars? Avengers Doomsday. So far, an Avengers
00:19:28.599 --> 00:19:34.700
movie has never not made a billion dollars. Marvel
00:19:34.700 --> 00:19:38.700
has a hold spot on a movie, on a film next July
00:19:38.700 --> 00:19:41.329
that nobody knows what it is. Nobody knows if
00:19:41.329 --> 00:19:46.089
it's a hold spot or what they're doing. I suspect
00:19:46.089 --> 00:19:49.410
it's Doctor Strange 3. Right. And it's going
00:19:49.410 --> 00:19:51.170
to come out between Doomsday and Secret Wars,
00:19:51.230 --> 00:19:54.390
much like Ant -Man and the Wasp came out between
00:19:54.390 --> 00:19:57.150
Infinity War and Endgame and introduced the quantum
00:19:57.150 --> 00:19:58.769
tunnel and the quantum realm and all the shit
00:19:58.769 --> 00:20:03.890
they needed for for Endgame. I think it's I think
00:20:03.890 --> 00:20:05.869
it's the next Doctor Strange. But again, and
00:20:05.869 --> 00:20:07.490
do you think Avengers Secret Wars is not going
00:20:07.490 --> 00:20:15.279
to make a billion dollars? Okay They're gonna
00:20:15.279 --> 00:20:16.819
average more than a billion dollars in phase
00:20:16.819 --> 00:20:24.619
six per movie Okay, he's gonna be up right around
00:20:24.619 --> 00:20:26.880
40 billion by the time he gets to the end of
00:20:26.880 --> 00:20:35.920
phase six So Yeah, anyway, let us know what you
00:20:35.920 --> 00:20:39.210
think in the comments below Do you think it's
00:20:39.210 --> 00:20:41.789
the most successful franchise of all time or
00:20:41.789 --> 00:20:44.190
what do you guys think? Let us know
