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One of the nation's top election forecasters shifting to major
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Senate races in the left. Larry Sabato's crystal ball moving
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Minnesota and Louisiana in the Democratic direction five days before
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Election Day. And Larry Sabato is out. So good to
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talk to you again. OK, so let's talk about Louisiana first.
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Outgoing Republican Senator Bill Cassidy. This is his seat. Lost
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his primary after Trump endorsed his challenger, Julia Letlow. Now,
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this has been a quiet race. Now you're moving it
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to the left. I mean, you're not that doesn't mean
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you're saying the Democrats going to win. I mean, let's
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just be clear here. Explain exactly what you're saying. But also,
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when you're moving a race like this at all, what
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are the implications of that?
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Well, the implication is very clear. The Republican candidates in
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the south of all places in Louisiana and Mississippi, and especially,
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who can believe this, South Carolina, are in trouble to
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one degree or another. Now, Julia Letlow is going to
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be elected to the U.S. Senate, but it's not going
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to be one of those blowout Republican elections that Louisianans
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are used to. It's going to be probably single digits.
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And again, that's the essence of the blue wave that
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spreads across the country. Even in the South, it's going
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to lower Republican winning margins. Now, it doesn't matter in
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terms of control of the Senate, but it suggests and
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South Carolina could really make a difference if they ended
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up electing the Democrat, Andy Andrews. I don't think she'll win,
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although if you had to pick an upset of those three,
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you would pick South Carolina. And it's just a tremendous
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shock to everybody who follows elections.
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Yeah, yeah.
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I mean, you're talking single digits, possibly in Louisiana. Definitely
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a shock there. You're also shifting in Minnesota, the Senate
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race between progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and And Michelle Tafoya,
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a very well-known former NFL reporter, you're shifting that one
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to the left. Tafoya's been tamping down questions about why
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her website doesn't say anywhere that she's a Republican. Listen
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to this exchange, Larry.
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Your website doesn't say you're a Republican anywhere on the website.
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Is that because, what, Republicans are a dirty word in Minnesota?
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Honestly, I don't think it was intentional. Really?
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No, I don't. No, I really don't. Yeah, she's running, obviously,
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you know, as a Republican, as a Republican brand that bad.
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I mean, I'm just thinking to Byron Donald's right when
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he kind of basically took almost all references to Trump
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off his site.
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Right.
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That wasn't as far as the Republican brand.
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Right.
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But but what do you see here?
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Well, Michelle Tafoya just forgot. I mean, you have to
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give her that. It's just who would think to mention
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your party here? As you're running for the U.S. Senate,
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I'm being sarcastic, obviously. She knows that Donald Trump is
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not only unpopular in Minnesota, he's unpopular in virtually every state.
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He is way below 50 percent in at least 47
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of the 50 states. So that tells you something. And
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the ones who are removing the pictures of Donald Trump, again,
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they're just circulating different slogans and photos. That's all it is.
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That's what they're trying to tell you. It's ridiculous. The
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truth is Donald Trump is costing Republicans from one coast
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to the other. He costs them different margins in different places.
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The deeper red the state or district is, the more
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that Republicans can survive. But it's significant. Michelle Tafoya is
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a good candidate. She's well-known because of her sportscasting career.
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In another year, she could have won in Minnesota because
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it's a— It's a marginal state in some elections, leans Democratic,
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but not this year.
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Now, you're close to shifting. I know the key Texas
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Senate race between Tallarico and Paxton, not there yet, but
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you've been looking at it. What do you see there?
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Yes, at an advanced stage, Erin, you move slowly. You
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try and move as fast as you can. We're not
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quite there yet, but we will by Monday. You know,
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I've been skeptical all along. I think virtually everybody in
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the political community just can't believe it when a Democrat
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says it's the year we're finally going to win. After
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30 years, you get tired of it. He's closer than
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Beto O'Rourke was, who nearly won a Senate seat back
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in back in the last part of the previous decade.
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He's close. He's not fully there. It's still a marginal race.
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But if you forced me to pick today, I'd pick Tallarico.
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And I could never imagine myself saying that. Why? It's
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because a slice, not so much of MAGA, but of
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the Reagan Republicans who are still a third of the party,
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even in Texas, are saying that Paxton is just too corrupt.
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And that's what's costing him. And that is totally due
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to Donald Trump, who insisted that Republicans nominate him over
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incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
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Right, right.
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When you say we wouldn't be having this conversation if
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it were John Cornyn on that ticket. We've got a
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K-file exclusive on what is shaping up to be perhaps
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the hottest Senate race in the country, Paxton versus Tallarico
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in Texas. So listen to this.
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Hi, is this Julio? Hi, my name is Jennifer and
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I'm a virtual staffer with Lone Star Liberty calling in
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support of Republican Ken Paxton's.
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You know, at least she identified herself as a virtual staffer.
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That voice is not a real person. It's an AI,
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you know, I don't want to personify it. It's an
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AI calling voters in Texas on behalf of a super
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PAC backing Republican Ken Paxton. And the point of these
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calls is to slam the Democrat James Tallarico for allegedly
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taking money from AI data center special interests, which is
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kind of interesting using AI to slam AI, especially given
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the big donor to Paxton, Elon Musk's point of view
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on AI. KFAL has obtained recordings of these calls, which
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can actually lead to prolonged conversations with voters. That's different
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than the robocalls of the past. And here's the twist, right?
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The billionaire helping bankroll the super PAC is Elon Musk.
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He runs an AI company. He gave the group $ 10 million. Wow,
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but now he's criticizing Tallarico for, he says, supporting AI.
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Up front now, Andrew Kaczynski of KFAL, who along with
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his colleague, MSTAC broke this exclusive reporting. What else did
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you find?
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Erin, you are right. And the irony here is very thick.
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This is a super PAC bankrolled in part by $ 10
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million from Elon Musk, a billionaire with his own artificial
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intelligence company using AI to attack Tallarico for taking money
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from another tech billionaire who supports data centers. And those
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data centers are the very infrastructure that are powering The
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AI making these calls. Listen to a few more of
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these lines that we found.
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Okay, great. Now, in terms of who you plan to
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vote for, will you be supporting Ken Paxton? James Tallarico
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voted for taxes on Social Security, overtime and tips, and
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he's pushing even higher property taxes. He took $ 11 million
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from data center special interests and gave them 20-year tax breaks.
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Now, that $ 11 million claim seems to refer to money
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from tech billionaire Reid Hoffman, who is a supporter of
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data centers. But that money is actually going to a
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super PAC backing Tallarico. It's not money that was given
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to Tallarico directly in air. And we obtained these recordings
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through Nomo Robo. That's a robocall blocking service. And what
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is remarkable is that unlike traditional robocalls, you know, everybody
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gets them. These AI calls can actually have conversations with
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voters online. They can ask who they support. They can
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respond to their questions. But this technology we found is
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really not perfect. Listen to a lot of these calls.
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In some of them, the AI caller seems to get
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confused when interrupted.
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It stops.
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It starts over. It repeats the same question again and again, Aaron,
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on all these calls that we review.
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I like this. No more robo.
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No more robo.
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I get it.
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You get it?
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I get it.
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I get it.
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And it does work. It does block the calls.
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Okay.
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So they are mostly limited to landlines right now. you know,
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which obviously puts you in a specific pool of people.
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Is that about to change, though, this go more broad?
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Possibly.
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The FTC is considering a petition that could allow political
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groups to make large scale unsolicited AI robocalls to millions
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of cell phones without prior consent. And that could actually
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take this tech from something that is a relatively small
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number of calls, to something much bigger. Now, the pro-Paxton
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PAC defended its tactics, telling us that they were, quote,
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using every tool available. Telrico's campaign we reached out to
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fired back, saying that the only volunteers, that was their quote,
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the only volunteers that were even willing to make these
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calls for Paxton, what they said, were AI robots.
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Okay, I get that.
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They were basically saying Paxton has no friends and needs
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robots to make his calls.
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Right, and needs them. Needs his agents.
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Yes.
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All right.
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One of the nation's top election forecasters shifting to major
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Senate races in the left. Larry Sabato's crystal ball moving
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Minnesota and Louisiana in the Democratic direction five days before
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Election Day. And Larry Sabato is out. So good to
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talk to you again. OK, so let's talk about Louisiana first.
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Outgoing Republican Senator Bill Cassidy. This is his seat. Lost
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his primary after Trump endorsed his challenger, Julia Letlow. Now,
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this has been a quiet race. Now you're moving it
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to the left. I mean, you're not that doesn't mean
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you're saying the Democrats going to win. I mean, let's
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just be clear here. Explain exactly what you're saying. But also,
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when you're moving a race like this at all, what
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are the implications of that?
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Well, the implication is very clear. The Republican candidates in
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the south of all places in Louisiana and Mississippi, and especially,
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who can believe this, South Carolina, are in trouble to
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one degree or another. Now, Julia Letlow is going to
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be elected to the U.S. Senate, but it's not going
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to be one of those blowout Republican elections that Louisianans
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are used to. It's going to be probably single digits.
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And again, that's the essence of the blue wave that
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spreads across the country. Even in the South, it's going
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to lower Republican winning margins. Now, it doesn't matter in
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terms of control of the Senate, but it suggests and
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South Carolina could really make a difference if they ended
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up electing the Democrat, Andy Andrews. I don't think she'll win,
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although if you had to pick an upset of those three,
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you would pick South Carolina. And it's just a tremendous
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shock to everybody who follows elections.
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Yeah, yeah.
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I mean, you're talking single digits, possibly in Louisiana. Definitely
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a shock there. You're also shifting in Minnesota, the Senate
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race between progressive Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and And Michelle Tafoya,
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a very well-known former NFL reporter, you're shifting that one
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to the left. Tafoya's been tamping down questions about why
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her website doesn't say anywhere that she's a Republican. Listen
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to this exchange, Larry.
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Your website doesn't say you're a Republican anywhere on the website.
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Is that because, what, Republicans are a dirty word in Minnesota?
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Honestly, I don't think it was intentional. Really?
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No, I don't. No, I really don't. Yeah, she's running, obviously,
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you know, as a Republican, as a Republican brand that bad.
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I mean, I'm just thinking to Byron Donald's right when
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he kind of basically took almost all references to Trump
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off his site.
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Right.
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That wasn't as far as the Republican brand.
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Right.
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But but what do you see here?
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Well, Michelle Tafoya just forgot. I mean, you have to
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give her that. It's just who would think to mention
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your party here? As you're running for the U.S. Senate,
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I'm being sarcastic, obviously. She knows that Donald Trump is
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not only unpopular in Minnesota, he's unpopular in virtually every state.
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He is way below 50 percent in at least 47
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of the 50 states. So that tells you something. And
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the ones who are removing the pictures of Donald Trump, again,
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they're just circulating different slogans and photos. That's all it is.
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That's what they're trying to tell you. It's ridiculous. The
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truth is Donald Trump is costing Republicans from one coast
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to the other. He costs them different margins in different places.
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The deeper red the state or district is, the more
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that Republicans can survive. But it's significant. Michelle Tafoya is
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a good candidate. She's well-known because of her sportscasting career.
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In another year, she could have won in Minnesota because
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it's a— It's a marginal state in some elections, leans Democratic,
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but not this year.
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Now, you're close to shifting. I know the key Texas
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Senate race between Tallarico and Paxton, not there yet, but
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you've been looking at it. What do you see there?
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Yes, at an advanced stage, Erin, you move slowly. You
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try and move as fast as you can. We're not
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quite there yet, but we will by Monday. You know,
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I've been skeptical all along. I think virtually everybody in
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the political community just can't believe it when a Democrat
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says it's the year we're finally going to win. After
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30 years, you get tired of it. He's closer than
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Beto O'Rourke was, who nearly won a Senate seat back
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in back in the last part of the previous decade.
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He's close. He's not fully there. It's still a marginal race.
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But if you forced me to pick today, I'd pick Tallarico.
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And I could never imagine myself saying that. Why? It's
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because a slice, not so much of MAGA, but of
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the Reagan Republicans who are still a third of the party,
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even in Texas, are saying that Paxton is just too corrupt.
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And that's what's costing him. And that is totally due
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to Donald Trump, who insisted that Republicans nominate him over
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incumbent Senator John Cornyn.
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Right, right.
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When you say we wouldn't be having this conversation if
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it were John Cornyn on that ticket. We've got a
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K-file exclusive on what is shaping up to be perhaps
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the hottest Senate race in the country, Paxton versus Tallarico
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in Texas. So listen to this.
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Hi, is this Julio? Hi, my name is Jennifer and
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I'm a virtual staffer with Lone Star Liberty calling in
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support of Republican Ken Paxton's.
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You know, at least she identified herself as a virtual staffer.
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That voice is not a real person. It's an AI,
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you know, I don't want to personify it. It's an
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AI calling voters in Texas on behalf of a super
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PAC backing Republican Ken Paxton. And the point of these
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calls is to slam the Democrat James Tallarico for allegedly
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taking money from AI data center special interests, which is
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kind of interesting using AI to slam AI, especially given
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the big donor to Paxton, Elon Musk's point of view
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on AI. KFAL has obtained recordings of these calls, which
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can actually lead to prolonged conversations with voters. That's different
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than the robocalls of the past. And here's the twist, right?
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The billionaire helping bankroll the super PAC is Elon Musk.
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He runs an AI company. He gave the group $ 10 million. Wow,
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but now he's criticizing Tallarico for, he says, supporting AI.
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Up front now, Andrew Kaczynski of KFAL, who along with
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his colleague, MSTAC broke this exclusive reporting. What else did
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you find?
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Erin, you are right. And the irony here is very thick.
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This is a super PAC bankrolled in part by $ 10
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million from Elon Musk, a billionaire with his own artificial
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intelligence company using AI to attack Tallarico for taking money
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from another tech billionaire who supports data centers. And those
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data centers are the very infrastructure that are powering The
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AI making these calls. Listen to a few more of
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these lines that we found.
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Okay, great. Now, in terms of who you plan to
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vote for, will you be supporting Ken Paxton? James Tallarico
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voted for taxes on Social Security, overtime and tips, and
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he's pushing even higher property taxes. He took $ 11 million
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from data center special interests and gave them 20-year tax breaks.
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Now, that $ 11 million claim seems to refer to money
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from tech billionaire Reid Hoffman, who is a supporter of
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data centers. But that money is actually going to a
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super PAC backing Tallarico. It's not money that was given
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to Tallarico directly in air. And we obtained these recordings
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through Nomo Robo. That's a robocall blocking service. And what
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is remarkable is that unlike traditional robocalls, you know, everybody
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gets them. These AI calls can actually have conversations with
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voters online. They can ask who they support. They can
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respond to their questions. But this technology we found is
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really not perfect. Listen to a lot of these calls.
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In some of them, the AI caller seems to get
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confused when interrupted.
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It stops.
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It starts over. It repeats the same question again and again, Aaron,
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on all these calls that we review.
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I like this. No more robo.
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No more robo.
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I get it.
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You get it?
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I get it.
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I get it.
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And it does work. It does block the calls.
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Okay.
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So they are mostly limited to landlines right now. you know,
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which obviously puts you in a specific pool of people.
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Is that about to change, though, this go more broad?
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Possibly.
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The FTC is considering a petition that could allow political
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groups to make large scale unsolicited AI robocalls to millions
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of cell phones without prior consent. And that could actually
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take this tech from something that is a relatively small
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number of calls, to something much bigger. Now, the pro-Paxton
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PAC defended its tactics, telling us that they were, quote,
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using every tool available. Telrico's campaign we reached out to
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fired back, saying that the only volunteers, that was their quote,
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the only volunteers that were even willing to make these
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calls for Paxton, what they said, were AI robots.
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Okay, I get that.
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They were basically saying Paxton has no friends and needs
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robots to make his calls.
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Right, and needs them. Needs his agents.
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Yes.
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All right.
