The Hit Factor Podcast: Welcome back to the Hit Factor Podcast. my name is Jay Beal. I am joined by your other hosts, Saul Allen and Sam Matt. I'm joined by a couple of losers, is what is happening. because we are announcing the winners of the fantasy draft for race gun nationals. It's very exciting. hello guys.
Sam: Saw you're a winner in my book.
Saul: Hello, Sam. Hello. Hello. thanks, buddy. But I I lost. And I just to be clear, I didn't lose. AJ Anthony, Casey Eusebio, and Phil Strader lost. And their defeats took me down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, y well, yeah. Yes. Which th therefore made you lose.
Saul: And and technically so so Jay win w wins and theoretically I come second. Come to find out, Mike Seeklanders not even registers as a senior for PCC. So really I lose that fill in spot as well. And so technically I lose. The actual finish order is is Jay Sam me. But if if I give myself Seeklander scores, then I just edge Sam.
Sam: Well if I
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: reverse Jerry's
Saul: And I hear the kids are really into edging these spaces.
Sam: if I reverse Jerry's DQ and do the what ifs, then actually I win. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, is that how this game works?
Sam: Uh-huh.
Saul: Yeah, yeah, you what if in my race gun nationals draft we have gone peak US P S.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You can't what if this, alright? Your team did not show up for you,
Sam: I read our rule book. There's
The Hit Factor Podcast: okay?
Sam: there's nothing in there about not using what if scores. So
Saul: So the first thing to clarify to people who are listening to this on audio, like normal podcast listeners, is that I've pulled up a screen share of our predictions and I want to celebrate our collective intelligence for picking in our first two rounds the top six finishers in LA.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean
Saul: Good job,
The Hit Factor Podcast: i I would say that I'm surprised that we did that, but I'm I I think that this is like a pretty I think a lot of people could do that. I'm not I don't think we're special in this. I think a lot of people could have looked at the
Saul: I don't know, some people used mathematical regression models and assigned numbers to people and they came up with a different top six list, just saying.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I know and it's hard and and sometimes that's good. Sometimes that that works, but there are factors that we that it it doesn't account for, like people being somewhat all over the place or people shooting their first nationals in a div in a division or I don't know, there's a bunch of stuff that just like isn't sometimes doesn't work.
Sam: So what you're
Saul: We also
The Hit Factor Podcast: And the site test.
Saul: picked the top six of open.
The Hit Factor Podcast: What am I saying?
Saul: Jay is saying the eye
Sam: What you're saying then?
Saul: test matters and like
The Hit Factor Podcast: You can say it. You can say what I'm saying.
Sam: No, what you're saying is now is now is the time you're gonna announce your Patreon funded predictions database account. Use code J for fifteen percent off your first
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Sam: month.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: Yes, exactly. If people just pay our Patreon, then we will do drafts for any match you want.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, Jay Slater I mean sorry, J Beal P You Sho Jay Slater's action
Saul: At at Mason Ly at Mason Lane dot gov.
The Hit Factor Podcast: at masonlane.gov. That's right. Slash Mason.
Saul: So slash Mason. And and then yeah, exactly. If you pay our Patreon, then we will just draft for whatever match you want to give you a sense of where people will finish.
The Hit Factor Podcast: that's right. Yeah.
Saul: We also went six for six in open.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, it's pretty cool. Again, sight
Saul: And
The Hit Factor Podcast: test.
Saul: It it's less impressive that we picked the limited field correctly.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, 'cause there that was a pretty there were three people. You did
Saul: And it was there was three people right to the end. I mean, it was a it was a cool, close match in all three of these divisions.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, and Saul, you you picked two you had two people on your team and you picked no wait. Did you pick you had Austin, didn't you? For limited.
Saul: I did pick Austin. I was the second pick and I picked Austin ahead of Scott.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yep. And and you got that win, and then you also you had first pick for Jacob, obviously, and Jacob took that win. you know.
Saul: I mean picking Mason first would have been a a smart choice too, realistically. Picking Joseph Weichel, turns out, would have been a genius pick.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, for in and both you and I passed passed we all passed up Weichel on the first round, didn't we? We did.
Saul: Yeah, Weissel didn't go until he was the second pick of the second round.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. there's a really good pick by Sam.
Sam: He was my second pick. I believed in him.
Saul: Very good pick by Sam. Yep.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: You you believed in him.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Sam: I also think that the it ended up I think the math played well with
Saul: Dale, ready to show up? Dale hit hit What's him?
Sam: I think the the the style of the match played well to
Saul: Yeah.
Sam: to Weichel's style of shooting.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: What do you mean by that?
Sam: from what it looked like, I don't like he's definitely like he likes to collect a lot of points. I think he's pretty good at getting into positions, doing the shooting thing pretty well, and then getting out of the position and then getting to the next one. looked like some farther some farther targets, not not a ton of aggressive blending. Which would play well to like looking at last year's nationals. like I think last year's nationals played to to Adams strengths really well. And this year the match was definitely a different different flavor. and I think that Weichel took took advantage of that and that was maybe in his in his comfort zone. I don't know, we'd have to we'd have to ask him, but that's watching the scores, that's That's what it looked like to me.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, we'll have to ask him sometime. Probably on this podcast on on this podcast at some point.
Saul: We probably should and what does that mean for us, going to Saint George in three weeks is that we should probably be looking at last year's race gun gats more than this year's Ohio Nats.
Sam: Probably smart.
Saul: Speaking of that
The Hit Factor Podcast: We can be
Saul: style, I would have thought just historically that would also play pretty well to a lot of the older crowd of shooters. Cause I think the the shoot move shoot style used to be more common at major matches.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Used to be.
Saul: And I and I thought it played against Siler in open that one of the things Siler does better than other folks in open is he finds more opportunities to keep things connected. And if you've got a run out of bounds, step into bounds, shoot four targets, run out of bounds, step into bounds, shoot three targets, then it becomes harder for for Siler to sort of do what he does best.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean we're very Sal and I, you and I are I I guess very familiar with the Ohio range. And Sam, you've shot there w one time? I think. Yeah. I mean those first ten bays are it's so hard to you you have multiple things. You have footing, like loose gravel, very loose gravel in all of those lower bays, and you have stages that just don't have s side berm targets everywhere and and
Sam: Yep.
The Hit Factor Podcast: are they are just very specific to those bays. And you can have some really good stages there for sure. But it's a it's a style that that usually pops out of there. Now, Saul, you shot IPSC La Nationals there last year. Were was that a different vibe?
Saul: sort of. I was I was there for half the match.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Ye travel version of you lingered.
Saul: it they did something different with that match 'cause what they did with IPSC Nationals is they really these factors were like a full hit factor lower than most similar matches have been in open or LO. So sort of across the boards this was just a lower factor match and for IPSC Nationals last year they did that only more so. They really used small steel all over the place and moving steel all over the place. To sort of add complexity to stages, whether they're on the lower or the upper bays. I did think, you know, watching scores roll in over the weekend that it was to people like Jacob and Siler's advantage to finish up in zone three with the most conventional berms and the most conventional stages, because those would be places where they would have the opportunity for big swings of points, which is why it was super exciting to watch. Joseph Weichel on his second to last stage, stage 18, just absolutely knock it out of the park. And put himself back nine
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, that made it very interesting.
Saul: nine points back going into their final stage, which I think was stage 13. So I thought, you know, if Jacob gets a lead in zone three, he he'll be very difficult to catch. And same for Siler. and instead Flieger and Weichel kept it interesting to the last stage.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Hmm. Yeah, I I'm I'm getting this is a little bit of a side point, but I really like seeing video. I mean, so Jacob's got his full match video posted already. It's like posted right after. And he and he you he's usually pretty good at that if if he remembers to do it, which this match is a good one to remember. for him into post video. So we have we have video from every everything and I I love when when a lot of people do that. 'Cause it's so fun to see in the short time after the match how that person shot and then you can connect things to their scores while things are well it's really fresh.
Sam: You know what bugs
Saul: Yeah,
Sam: me though?
Saul: and both Vleager and Isaac McLaurin did it day of. At the end of each day, they would post all of their stages for the day. But sorry, go ahead. What books are you saying?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: bugs me that I I'm pretty sure it must be in like the AMU contract that you can't wear a hat cam because for whatever reason none of the AMU guys have hat cam footage and that always bugs me because I much prefer watching the hat cam footage if it's a stage that I haven't shot.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I wonder Aaron was y Aaron had meta meta glasses earlier this year. I know none of them have the hat cam stuff. That does bug me too. 'Cause I d I do like to see that.
Saul: I I do I I do love watching people's third person if I shot the same match because I can usually recall with some specificity what happened to me where on the stage and then watching other people negotiate those same obstacles to me is super valuable. But it's it's it's more fun to watch first person view if I've if I haven't walked on the stages.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, you can see pretty closely like just the details that happened, especially if you hadn't you're like how many steel were in that in a in that array? Like you don't know, and then you just kinda have to guess with what's going on, or maybe you saw you have to piece together more.
Saul: Yeah, and sometimes it's hard to tell what to make up, in third person.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Exactly. Especially when Jacob's makeups are so fast on steel. And you're like, Wait, did I hear Yeah, is that
Saul: Yeah, when I hear pop pop ding is like was that paper and then steel or was that three shots at steel? And then I look at
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: the AMG data and it's like, that was three shots at steel. But it sounds the same.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. but I mean and usually like Brant Brantley's usually pretty good about getting video up. Sam started his YouTube channel, so Sam's got video now.
Sam: yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I want everybody
Saul: Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: to do it. Sorry.
Saul: Well, I want everybody on my team, so I'm really looking forward to A. J. Anthony's video.
The Hit Factor Podcast: What's that one gonna be of?
Saul: I don't know, making breakfast or something?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, yeah, just what just exact exact moments of when the stages were shot, but just what he was doing.
Sam: Hey, call him by call him by his full and proper name.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: I don't want to make an enemy of a guy I don't know. I like to make my enemies in person.
Sam: You let your team down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I think this was like making a true friend. Yes.
Saul: He did totally let my team down. Like Phil Strader was predictable that he would be ineligible due to division change. Mike Sieglander not registering as senior makes me a little bit sad. by the way, I think it was Keith Garcia who actually won senior PCC.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: And then so yeah, my team definitely let me let me down. I I know that Ben and his wife Taylor also made a fantasy draft. And On the basis of Taylor picking Max Michelle, Ben won. Otherwise she would have won.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, come here. Come say hi. Hello. A podcast
Sam: Looking at
The Hit Factor Podcast: visitor, my son.
Sam: Looking at the
The Hit Factor Podcast: What do you got me?
Sam: the high hit factors, just looking at at Jacob and Weichel going through all eighteen stages, looks like there's no there's no hit factors higher than than s seven something. No hit factors got into the eights. and there were there were two that the high hit factors were in the fours, in e by everybody in L O except there was one of that Brantley just snuck in a a five. So definitely a lower lower factor match, for sure.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: And and then looking at people's videos, it wasn't just lower factor because of shot difficulty. It's there was a lot of obligated movement and stage navigation without targets to shoot at.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean when the stage plan is to run twenty f feet around the front of a shooting area with no shooting involved. This is it's kinda auto drags. And to start that stage I don't actually know, I'm just saying but to start that stage with an unloaded start too.
Saul: I liked the one first stage, actually.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Maybe it wasn't that one.
Saul: That was a lower factor stage that looked good.
The Hit Factor Podcast: That did look cool. Were a couple like stacks in the backside and then moving up and shooting one per on the move. Kinda neat.
Saul: Yeah, I so I was listening, you know, to Jacob's one per on the stacks and it sounded like a single target on a on a couple of stacks and I thought Chef's kiss.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm. Papa. It was pretty cool.
Saul: Any big surprises for you, Sam? I mean not just with your team letting you down, but
Sam: Yeah, didn't have didn't have Jerry DQing on my bingo card. so I'll be talking to Jerry about that on Saturday. other than that, I actually I wasn't super surprised to see the to see how close it was in open. sounds like I was I was actually I was expecting Aaron to be the one who's gonna be who's gonna be closer than Bleager. And I think he was. Looks like he had one bad stage that that screwed him up towards the end, where he lost a good chunk of his lead. but other than that I and I mean, yeah, Weichel definitely stepped it up. had a great match. but other than that, I mean nothing Actually I think maybe the maybe the biggest surprise for me was I thought I thought Mason was gonna be was gonna be a little bit closer in the in the points race up towards the up towards the top there.
Saul: And he kinda was for the first two days.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I think I I mean we've talked about this a little bit be before. I don't know necessarily on the podcast. I mean, I personally think that being on the super squad is is a really big advantage. and this may not be for everybody. And I don't know, I don't want to apply that to Mason, but I I I know for myself seeing things happen in real time is an is a s a a serious benefit if you want to take advantage of of it. Even though you can see if stuff's out going on in the same zone and you're aware of it and you're and and s and things like that, but that requires scores to be updating perfectly and it I think it's just harder to do. So I again like I don't know I think that's that's what ifing things a little bit, I mean to a certain degree, but I I don't know, I don't see that being I don't see Mason being off squad helping him a lot. but again, I'm I'm over here just applying that to people. So you can email Mason about that. I think that's probably a good call. Yeah.
Saul: What's his email address again, Sam?
Sam: Mason dot mason at mason.gov dot hit factor forward slash sig.
Saul: Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: yeah. Right.
Saul: I think that gets you a hundred and ten percent off the the latest model sit cross.
Sam: I think they just send you a they send you like
The Hit Factor Podcast: I think so. I think so.
Sam: five three twenties in the mail just straight to your door, I think.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mason's sending Mason's sending the entire team because we did win, Mason was on on my team, he's sending everybody I think a new what are they, the G T fives?
Saul: That's the five
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: inch model without the comp, yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I think everybody gets one.
Saul: and I know that for Mason and and for some some of the folks at this match, the next big match is actually the Pan American
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: in Aruba.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It's going on like this week.
Saul: Exactly. Yeah. It must be nice, twenty four stages in a rubber.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It must be nice. Sounds fun. It'll be cool to to see video from that.
Saul: Yeah, I think it's a pretty much unknown host facility too. So unless you're from there, it it'll be new for everybody.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Yeah, that's cool.
Saul: yeah. Any big surprises from your team, Jay?
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean, I'm not like I everyone shot how I kind of expected them to shoot.
Saul: You're not gonna push anybody in front of a bus? 'Cause when people let you down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean, I don't think I can. I don't really think I can. I mean, every i they f
Saul: I'm clicking rule.
The Hit Factor Podcast: they finished finished in order, I believe, for for LO in order that they were on the team. Mason, Brantley, Alistair, McLaren.
Saul: Isaac Christopher.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, Christopher. And then I I had what I picked I think I picked Mike Wang over John Vlieger.
Saul: You did. But the two of them gave you so many points.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean everyone was just solid point collection. Justine as well. Scott Brown, very good point collection. And and the area director Billy, I mean he pulled he he pulled through and got enough points. Now obviously w what if Sam wins, but unwhat if it's it's still good. It was enough. It was enough.
Saul: A couple people on your team had Rocky day ones, but they they came back.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, they came back. Brantley being one of them. off to a bit of a rough start. But again, not super concerning. I was not concerned. Just 'cause I mean like B even I mean, Jacob had kind of a rough start as well.
Saul: Those lower bays at Ohio, they are a harsh mistress.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean I I don't know how many times I've seen it in person, had it happen to me in person, watching myself have a rough start.
Saul: Stages one to seven at Ohio, like they destroyer of dreams.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, and there's and there's there are certain people who do really well at them. and like I have shot th b those well before it too. and sometimes people just have a day. Yeah.
Saul: Sam, you shot them well last year because you shot them day two. 'Cause you started up in zone three, if I'm not mistaken. Or you started in zone two last year.
Sam: No, I I finished I finished on zone one and that was my that was my worst zone.
Saul: So you started two, three, one.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: Yeah. And that was yeah, that zone was
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: All right. I knew you had a good day too. Yeah.
Sam: Yeah, day two is good. Yeah, I had some there were some highs and some lows on on zone one. But think I had my best my best
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. It's it's
Sam: best stage and my worst stage in zone one. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: Many such cases. I mean, seriously, I've shot five matches, six
The Hit Factor Podcast: Very relatable.
Saul: matches at that range, and those bays like one to six, one to seven. It's they're bipolar.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I'm it's really cool that we won't I I don't see in the schedule us being back there for race gun or
Saul: Excuse me. For the most important match next year you'll both be back there.
The Hit Factor Podcast: no.
Saul: Sam will be back there for the most important math next year, right?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Sam I bet I bet Sam doesn't even know about it.
Sam: I have no idea what we're talking about.
The Hit Factor Podcast: C doesn't even know what you were talking about. Amazing.
Saul: Yes.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Good, Sam. You know don't have to worry about it.
Sam: What is it?
Saul: It's okay, you'll you'll get a champion's invitation anyway.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You're getting an invite.
Saul: Yeah, it'll it'll it'll all make sense this fall.
Sam: Good. I am going to I'm actually I'm pretty excited about this. I will be back in Utah this spring for the Hunter Constantine
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: Belt PCSL match. Have a an excellent squad with Nathan Barnes and Adam Grimm and Carson Armsbury. my buddy John from down in Arizona. It's gonna be a a fantastic time.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Well.
Sam: It is in February.
Saul: And that's April?
Sam: It is in February. So I don't know what Hunter was thinking. I
The Hit Factor Podcast: What?
Sam: don't think he knows that it's cold in Utah in February, but it's fine. We're shooting from concealed, so you wanna wear a hoodie anyways, I think. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: I was sent this recently. I don't think I'll use it. But I might.
Sam: There's a room on our squad. We'll make room on our squad. You're invited.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I did give my belt belt my belt belt to my brother to use though. So I don't currently have a belt belt. It's unfortunate.
Saul: Does he wear it to carry a gun or just like to keep his pants up?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Good question. He might carry a gun.
Saul: I'll be nicer to him next time I see him.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Next time. Still try I try to get him to come to a matches every once in a while. Unsuccessful.
Saul: He yeah, he could dust it off. He'd still be very good.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I know. It would be very good. It's auto, auto very good. Yeah.
Saul: Not fair. I ran out of natural talent in C class.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It got you to C class, so that's pretty that's pretty sweet.
Saul: It did get me a C class.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: You don't even know what that's like, Jay. Sam doesn't know what
The Hit Factor Podcast: No.
Saul: that's like either. Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: But now now look at you, Saul. Triple G Are you? Double G
Saul: No.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I thought you were I thought you were three.
Saul: No, maybe PCC.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Soon to be LO.
Saul: Maybe. Probably would have to shoot a match. Okay. I'll I I'll get right on that.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You just need one one ten. You just need a one ten. And then it's all you need. Sol you need.
Saul: I can't act I cannot actually shoot a one ten and shoot the way I want to shoot at matches. There are people who can. I I get that. But technically I cannot. I can shoot a one ten on many of the classifiers, but I can't do it doing what I want to do at matches.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Okay.
Saul: It makes sense.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It makes sense.
Saul: Just pull the gun out of the holster, shoot based on timing and trust that it'll work out. That's like a
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Don't you do that don't you do that all the time?
Sam: You don't do that at matches?
Saul: no
The Hit Factor Podcast: Okay.
Saul: I don't.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: Well I do, but it doesn't work as well in unusual circumstances in three dimensional space.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Hmm. Maybe we need a 2D version of this game.
Saul: I I would excel at two D if we could just like
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: maybe maybe one D. True
The Hit Factor Podcast: When d I think we should try it. I'm gonna
Saul: point shooting. It's just a singular point, an infinitesimally small point.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna shoot yeah, one D next match. We shoot together.
Saul: All right, so just very quickly 'cause this is supposed to be a a rapid podcast. when other people are building their fantasy draft teams, just tell tell your audience what number pick you should be. Go for it, Sam. What round do
Sam: Stop.
Saul: you want to be picked in for the factory gun?
Sam: On load, show clear.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Sam: Saw you're a winner in my book.
Saul: Hello, Sam. Hello. Hello. thanks, buddy. But I I lost. And I just to be clear, I didn't lose. AJ Anthony, Casey Eusebio, and Phil Strader lost. And their defeats took me down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, y well, yeah. Yes. Which th therefore made you lose.
Saul: And and technically so so Jay win w wins and theoretically I come second. Come to find out, Mike Seeklanders not even registers as a senior for PCC. So really I lose that fill in spot as well. And so technically I lose. The actual finish order is is Jay Sam me. But if if I give myself Seeklander scores, then I just edge Sam.
Sam: Well if I
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: reverse Jerry's
Saul: And I hear the kids are really into edging these spaces.
Sam: if I reverse Jerry's DQ and do the what ifs, then actually I win. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, is that how this game works?
Sam: Uh-huh.
Saul: Yeah, yeah, you what if in my race gun nationals draft we have gone peak US P S.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You can't what if this, alright? Your team did not show up for you,
Sam: I read our rule book. There's
The Hit Factor Podcast: okay?
Sam: there's nothing in there about not using what if scores. So
Saul: So the first thing to clarify to people who are listening to this on audio, like normal podcast listeners, is that I've pulled up a screen share of our predictions and I want to celebrate our collective intelligence for picking in our first two rounds the top six finishers in LA.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean
Saul: Good job,
The Hit Factor Podcast: i I would say that I'm surprised that we did that, but I'm I I think that this is like a pretty I think a lot of people could do that. I'm not I don't think we're special in this. I think a lot of people could have looked at the
Saul: I don't know, some people used mathematical regression models and assigned numbers to people and they came up with a different top six list, just saying.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I know and it's hard and and sometimes that's good. Sometimes that that works, but there are factors that we that it it doesn't account for, like people being somewhat all over the place or people shooting their first nationals in a div in a division or I don't know, there's a bunch of stuff that just like isn't sometimes doesn't work.
Sam: So what you're
Saul: We also
The Hit Factor Podcast: And the site test.
Saul: picked the top six of open.
The Hit Factor Podcast: What am I saying?
Saul: Jay is saying the eye
Sam: What you're saying then?
Saul: test matters and like
The Hit Factor Podcast: You can say it. You can say what I'm saying.
Sam: No, what you're saying is now is now is the time you're gonna announce your Patreon funded predictions database account. Use code J for fifteen percent off your first
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Sam: month.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: Yes, exactly. If people just pay our Patreon, then we will do drafts for any match you want.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, Jay Slater I mean sorry, J Beal P You Sho Jay Slater's action
Saul: At at Mason Ly at Mason Lane dot gov.
The Hit Factor Podcast: at masonlane.gov. That's right. Slash Mason.
Saul: So slash Mason. And and then yeah, exactly. If you pay our Patreon, then we will just draft for whatever match you want to give you a sense of where people will finish.
The Hit Factor Podcast: that's right. Yeah.
Saul: We also went six for six in open.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, it's pretty cool. Again, sight
Saul: And
The Hit Factor Podcast: test.
Saul: It it's less impressive that we picked the limited field correctly.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, 'cause there that was a pretty there were three people. You did
Saul: And it was there was three people right to the end. I mean, it was a it was a cool, close match in all three of these divisions.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, and Saul, you you picked two you had two people on your team and you picked no wait. Did you pick you had Austin, didn't you? For limited.
Saul: I did pick Austin. I was the second pick and I picked Austin ahead of Scott.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yep. And and you got that win, and then you also you had first pick for Jacob, obviously, and Jacob took that win. you know.
Saul: I mean picking Mason first would have been a a smart choice too, realistically. Picking Joseph Weichel, turns out, would have been a genius pick.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, for in and both you and I passed passed we all passed up Weichel on the first round, didn't we? We did.
Saul: Yeah, Weissel didn't go until he was the second pick of the second round.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. there's a really good pick by Sam.
Sam: He was my second pick. I believed in him.
Saul: Very good pick by Sam. Yep.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: You you believed in him.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Sam: I also think that the it ended up I think the math played well with
Saul: Dale, ready to show up? Dale hit hit What's him?
Sam: I think the the the style of the match played well to
Saul: Yeah.
Sam: to Weichel's style of shooting.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: What do you mean by that?
Sam: from what it looked like, I don't like he's definitely like he likes to collect a lot of points. I think he's pretty good at getting into positions, doing the shooting thing pretty well, and then getting out of the position and then getting to the next one. looked like some farther some farther targets, not not a ton of aggressive blending. Which would play well to like looking at last year's nationals. like I think last year's nationals played to to Adams strengths really well. And this year the match was definitely a different different flavor. and I think that Weichel took took advantage of that and that was maybe in his in his comfort zone. I don't know, we'd have to we'd have to ask him, but that's watching the scores, that's That's what it looked like to me.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, we'll have to ask him sometime. Probably on this podcast on on this podcast at some point.
Saul: We probably should and what does that mean for us, going to Saint George in three weeks is that we should probably be looking at last year's race gun gats more than this year's Ohio Nats.
Sam: Probably smart.
Saul: Speaking of that
The Hit Factor Podcast: We can be
Saul: style, I would have thought just historically that would also play pretty well to a lot of the older crowd of shooters. Cause I think the the shoot move shoot style used to be more common at major matches.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Used to be.
Saul: And I and I thought it played against Siler in open that one of the things Siler does better than other folks in open is he finds more opportunities to keep things connected. And if you've got a run out of bounds, step into bounds, shoot four targets, run out of bounds, step into bounds, shoot three targets, then it becomes harder for for Siler to sort of do what he does best.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean we're very Sal and I, you and I are I I guess very familiar with the Ohio range. And Sam, you've shot there w one time? I think. Yeah. I mean those first ten bays are it's so hard to you you have multiple things. You have footing, like loose gravel, very loose gravel in all of those lower bays, and you have stages that just don't have s side berm targets everywhere and and
Sam: Yep.
The Hit Factor Podcast: are they are just very specific to those bays. And you can have some really good stages there for sure. But it's a it's a style that that usually pops out of there. Now, Saul, you shot IPSC La Nationals there last year. Were was that a different vibe?
Saul: sort of. I was I was there for half the match.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Ye travel version of you lingered.
Saul: it they did something different with that match 'cause what they did with IPSC Nationals is they really these factors were like a full hit factor lower than most similar matches have been in open or LO. So sort of across the boards this was just a lower factor match and for IPSC Nationals last year they did that only more so. They really used small steel all over the place and moving steel all over the place. To sort of add complexity to stages, whether they're on the lower or the upper bays. I did think, you know, watching scores roll in over the weekend that it was to people like Jacob and Siler's advantage to finish up in zone three with the most conventional berms and the most conventional stages, because those would be places where they would have the opportunity for big swings of points, which is why it was super exciting to watch. Joseph Weichel on his second to last stage, stage 18, just absolutely knock it out of the park. And put himself back nine
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, that made it very interesting.
Saul: nine points back going into their final stage, which I think was stage 13. So I thought, you know, if Jacob gets a lead in zone three, he he'll be very difficult to catch. And same for Siler. and instead Flieger and Weichel kept it interesting to the last stage.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Hmm. Yeah, I I'm I'm getting this is a little bit of a side point, but I really like seeing video. I mean, so Jacob's got his full match video posted already. It's like posted right after. And he and he you he's usually pretty good at that if if he remembers to do it, which this match is a good one to remember. for him into post video. So we have we have video from every everything and I I love when when a lot of people do that. 'Cause it's so fun to see in the short time after the match how that person shot and then you can connect things to their scores while things are well it's really fresh.
Sam: You know what bugs
Saul: Yeah,
Sam: me though?
Saul: and both Vleager and Isaac McLaurin did it day of. At the end of each day, they would post all of their stages for the day. But sorry, go ahead. What books are you saying?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: bugs me that I I'm pretty sure it must be in like the AMU contract that you can't wear a hat cam because for whatever reason none of the AMU guys have hat cam footage and that always bugs me because I much prefer watching the hat cam footage if it's a stage that I haven't shot.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I wonder Aaron was y Aaron had meta meta glasses earlier this year. I know none of them have the hat cam stuff. That does bug me too. 'Cause I d I do like to see that.
Saul: I I do I I do love watching people's third person if I shot the same match because I can usually recall with some specificity what happened to me where on the stage and then watching other people negotiate those same obstacles to me is super valuable. But it's it's it's more fun to watch first person view if I've if I haven't walked on the stages.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, you can see pretty closely like just the details that happened, especially if you hadn't you're like how many steel were in that in a in that array? Like you don't know, and then you just kinda have to guess with what's going on, or maybe you saw you have to piece together more.
Saul: Yeah, and sometimes it's hard to tell what to make up, in third person.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Exactly. Especially when Jacob's makeups are so fast on steel. And you're like, Wait, did I hear Yeah, is that
Saul: Yeah, when I hear pop pop ding is like was that paper and then steel or was that three shots at steel? And then I look at
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: the AMG data and it's like, that was three shots at steel. But it sounds the same.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. but I mean and usually like Brant Brantley's usually pretty good about getting video up. Sam started his YouTube channel, so Sam's got video now.
Sam: yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I want everybody
Saul: Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: to do it. Sorry.
Saul: Well, I want everybody on my team, so I'm really looking forward to A. J. Anthony's video.
The Hit Factor Podcast: What's that one gonna be of?
Saul: I don't know, making breakfast or something?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, yeah, just what just exact exact moments of when the stages were shot, but just what he was doing.
Sam: Hey, call him by call him by his full and proper name.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: I don't want to make an enemy of a guy I don't know. I like to make my enemies in person.
Sam: You let your team down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I think this was like making a true friend. Yes.
Saul: He did totally let my team down. Like Phil Strader was predictable that he would be ineligible due to division change. Mike Sieglander not registering as senior makes me a little bit sad. by the way, I think it was Keith Garcia who actually won senior PCC.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: And then so yeah, my team definitely let me let me down. I I know that Ben and his wife Taylor also made a fantasy draft. And On the basis of Taylor picking Max Michelle, Ben won. Otherwise she would have won.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, come here. Come say hi. Hello. A podcast
Sam: Looking at
The Hit Factor Podcast: visitor, my son.
Sam: Looking at the
The Hit Factor Podcast: What do you got me?
Sam: the high hit factors, just looking at at Jacob and Weichel going through all eighteen stages, looks like there's no there's no hit factors higher than than s seven something. No hit factors got into the eights. and there were there were two that the high hit factors were in the fours, in e by everybody in L O except there was one of that Brantley just snuck in a a five. So definitely a lower lower factor match, for sure.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: And and then looking at people's videos, it wasn't just lower factor because of shot difficulty. It's there was a lot of obligated movement and stage navigation without targets to shoot at.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean when the stage plan is to run twenty f feet around the front of a shooting area with no shooting involved. This is it's kinda auto drags. And to start that stage I don't actually know, I'm just saying but to start that stage with an unloaded start too.
Saul: I liked the one first stage, actually.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Maybe it wasn't that one.
Saul: That was a lower factor stage that looked good.
The Hit Factor Podcast: That did look cool. Were a couple like stacks in the backside and then moving up and shooting one per on the move. Kinda neat.
Saul: Yeah, I so I was listening, you know, to Jacob's one per on the stacks and it sounded like a single target on a on a couple of stacks and I thought Chef's kiss.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm. Papa. It was pretty cool.
Saul: Any big surprises for you, Sam? I mean not just with your team letting you down, but
Sam: Yeah, didn't have didn't have Jerry DQing on my bingo card. so I'll be talking to Jerry about that on Saturday. other than that, I actually I wasn't super surprised to see the to see how close it was in open. sounds like I was I was actually I was expecting Aaron to be the one who's gonna be who's gonna be closer than Bleager. And I think he was. Looks like he had one bad stage that that screwed him up towards the end, where he lost a good chunk of his lead. but other than that I and I mean, yeah, Weichel definitely stepped it up. had a great match. but other than that, I mean nothing Actually I think maybe the maybe the biggest surprise for me was I thought I thought Mason was gonna be was gonna be a little bit closer in the in the points race up towards the up towards the top there.
Saul: And he kinda was for the first two days.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I think I I mean we've talked about this a little bit be before. I don't know necessarily on the podcast. I mean, I personally think that being on the super squad is is a really big advantage. and this may not be for everybody. And I don't know, I don't want to apply that to Mason, but I I I know for myself seeing things happen in real time is an is a s a a serious benefit if you want to take advantage of of it. Even though you can see if stuff's out going on in the same zone and you're aware of it and you're and and s and things like that, but that requires scores to be updating perfectly and it I think it's just harder to do. So I again like I don't know I think that's that's what ifing things a little bit, I mean to a certain degree, but I I don't know, I don't see that being I don't see Mason being off squad helping him a lot. but again, I'm I'm over here just applying that to people. So you can email Mason about that. I think that's probably a good call. Yeah.
Saul: What's his email address again, Sam?
Sam: Mason dot mason at mason.gov dot hit factor forward slash sig.
Saul: Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: yeah. Right.
Saul: I think that gets you a hundred and ten percent off the the latest model sit cross.
Sam: I think they just send you a they send you like
The Hit Factor Podcast: I think so. I think so.
Sam: five three twenties in the mail just straight to your door, I think.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mason's sending Mason's sending the entire team because we did win, Mason was on on my team, he's sending everybody I think a new what are they, the G T fives?
Saul: That's the five
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
Saul: inch model without the comp, yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I think everybody gets one.
Saul: and I know that for Mason and and for some some of the folks at this match, the next big match is actually the Pan American
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: in Aruba.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It's going on like this week.
Saul: Exactly. Yeah. It must be nice, twenty four stages in a rubber.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It must be nice. Sounds fun. It'll be cool to to see video from that.
Saul: Yeah, I think it's a pretty much unknown host facility too. So unless you're from there, it it'll be new for everybody.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Yeah, that's cool.
Saul: yeah. Any big surprises from your team, Jay?
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean, I'm not like I everyone shot how I kind of expected them to shoot.
Saul: You're not gonna push anybody in front of a bus? 'Cause when people let you down.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean, I don't think I can. I don't really think I can. I mean, every i they f
Saul: I'm clicking rule.
The Hit Factor Podcast: they finished finished in order, I believe, for for LO in order that they were on the team. Mason, Brantley, Alistair, McLaren.
Saul: Isaac Christopher.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, Christopher. And then I I had what I picked I think I picked Mike Wang over John Vlieger.
Saul: You did. But the two of them gave you so many points.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. I mean everyone was just solid point collection. Justine as well. Scott Brown, very good point collection. And and the area director Billy, I mean he pulled he he pulled through and got enough points. Now obviously w what if Sam wins, but unwhat if it's it's still good. It was enough. It was enough.
Saul: A couple people on your team had Rocky day ones, but they they came back.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, they came back. Brantley being one of them. off to a bit of a rough start. But again, not super concerning. I was not concerned. Just 'cause I mean like B even I mean, Jacob had kind of a rough start as well.
Saul: Those lower bays at Ohio, they are a harsh mistress.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I mean I I don't know how many times I've seen it in person, had it happen to me in person, watching myself have a rough start.
Saul: Stages one to seven at Ohio, like they destroyer of dreams.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, and there's and there's there are certain people who do really well at them. and like I have shot th b those well before it too. and sometimes people just have a day. Yeah.
Saul: Sam, you shot them well last year because you shot them day two. 'Cause you started up in zone three, if I'm not mistaken. Or you started in zone two last year.
Sam: No, I I finished I finished on zone one and that was my that was my worst zone.
Saul: So you started two, three, one.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: Yeah. And that was yeah, that zone was
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: All right. I knew you had a good day too. Yeah.
Sam: Yeah, day two is good. Yeah, I had some there were some highs and some lows on on zone one. But think I had my best my best
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. It's it's
Sam: best stage and my worst stage in zone one. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: Many such cases. I mean, seriously, I've shot five matches, six
The Hit Factor Podcast: Very relatable.
Saul: matches at that range, and those bays like one to six, one to seven. It's they're bipolar.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I'm it's really cool that we won't I I don't see in the schedule us being back there for race gun or
Saul: Excuse me. For the most important match next year you'll both be back there.
The Hit Factor Podcast: no.
Saul: Sam will be back there for the most important math next year, right?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Sam I bet I bet Sam doesn't even know about it.
Sam: I have no idea what we're talking about.
The Hit Factor Podcast: C doesn't even know what you were talking about. Amazing.
Saul: Yes.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Good, Sam. You know don't have to worry about it.
Sam: What is it?
Saul: It's okay, you'll you'll get a champion's invitation anyway.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You're getting an invite.
Saul: Yeah, it'll it'll it'll all make sense this fall.
Sam: Good. I am going to I'm actually I'm pretty excited about this. I will be back in Utah this spring for the Hunter Constantine
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Sam: Belt PCSL match. Have a an excellent squad with Nathan Barnes and Adam Grimm and Carson Armsbury. my buddy John from down in Arizona. It's gonna be a a fantastic time.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Well.
Sam: It is in February.
Saul: And that's April?
Sam: It is in February. So I don't know what Hunter was thinking. I
The Hit Factor Podcast: What?
Sam: don't think he knows that it's cold in Utah in February, but it's fine. We're shooting from concealed, so you wanna wear a hoodie anyways, I think. So
The Hit Factor Podcast: I was sent this recently. I don't think I'll use it. But I might.
Sam: There's a room on our squad. We'll make room on our squad. You're invited.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I did give my belt belt my belt belt to my brother to use though. So I don't currently have a belt belt. It's unfortunate.
Saul: Does he wear it to carry a gun or just like to keep his pants up?
The Hit Factor Podcast: Good question. He might carry a gun.
Saul: I'll be nicer to him next time I see him.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Next time. Still try I try to get him to come to a matches every once in a while. Unsuccessful.
Saul: He yeah, he could dust it off. He'd still be very good.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I know. It would be very good. It's auto, auto very good. Yeah.
Saul: Not fair. I ran out of natural talent in C class.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It got you to C class, so that's pretty that's pretty sweet.
Saul: It did get me a C class.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: You don't even know what that's like, Jay. Sam doesn't know what
The Hit Factor Podcast: No.
Saul: that's like either. Yeah.
The Hit Factor Podcast: But now now look at you, Saul. Triple G Are you? Double G
Saul: No.
The Hit Factor Podcast: I thought you were I thought you were three.
Saul: No, maybe PCC.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Soon to be LO.
Saul: Maybe. Probably would have to shoot a match. Okay. I'll I I'll get right on that.
The Hit Factor Podcast: You just need one one ten. You just need a one ten. And then it's all you need. Sol you need.
Saul: I can't act I cannot actually shoot a one ten and shoot the way I want to shoot at matches. There are people who can. I I get that. But technically I cannot. I can shoot a one ten on many of the classifiers, but I can't do it doing what I want to do at matches.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Okay.
Saul: It makes sense.
The Hit Factor Podcast: It makes sense.
Saul: Just pull the gun out of the holster, shoot based on timing and trust that it'll work out. That's like a
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah. Don't you do that don't you do that all the time?
Sam: You don't do that at matches?
Saul: no
The Hit Factor Podcast: Okay.
Saul: I don't.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm-hmm.
Saul: Well I do, but it doesn't work as well in unusual circumstances in three dimensional space.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Hmm. Maybe we need a 2D version of this game.
Saul: I I would excel at two D if we could just like
The Hit Factor Podcast: Mm.
Saul: maybe maybe one D. True
The Hit Factor Podcast: When d I think we should try it. I'm gonna
Saul: point shooting. It's just a singular point, an infinitesimally small point.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna shoot yeah, one D next match. We shoot together.
Saul: All right, so just very quickly 'cause this is supposed to be a a rapid podcast. when other people are building their fantasy draft teams, just tell tell your audience what number pick you should be. Go for it, Sam. What round do
Sam: Stop.
Saul: you want to be picked in for the factory gun?
Sam: On load, show clear.
The Hit Factor Podcast: Yeah.
