Stefan Rust on Truflation: Why Official Inflation Data Misleads

Truflation CEO and founder Stefan Rust, former CEO of Bitcoin.com, joins Avi Mash and Jody Flournoy. He explains how Truflation measures inflation daily at about 0.9% year on year, compared with the BLS figure of 2.4%, and discusses Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination, tariffs, a 10% credit card rate cap, AI and jobs, and Bitcoin as a risk-on asset. In the second half, Problem Sniper (KT) covers charts on $COST, $TGT, $WMT, $NFLX, $CAT, $MU, $SNDK, $NBIS, $LLY and Bitcoin support levels.

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Chapters:
0:00 Intro
5:10 Stefan Rust: Bitcoin in 2012, Bitcoin.com and payment fees
10:44 How Truflation measures inflation, now about 0.9%
13:50 BLS revisions and Truflation's SQL-based blockchain
16:06 AI, graduates, jobs and entrepreneurship
28:36 Kevin Warsh at the Fed, debt and interest rates
38:42 Tariffs, private labels and the midterms
46:52 Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, real yields and gold
1:00:19 Problem Sniper on markets, $COST, $TGT and $WMT
1:13:28 $NFLX swing trade and $CAT bull flag
1:19:34 $MU, $SNDK memory cycle and $NBIS
1:32:18 Bitcoin support levels, $LLY and wrap-up

Key takeaways:
- Truflation pulls more than 30 million US items from about 70 data providers and puts year-on-year inflation near 0.9%, while BLS reported 2.4%.
- Rust said roughly 30% cumulative inflation over the past five years is what people feel as the cost of living, and the current trend is disinflation, not deflation.
- Truflation acquired Quill and built a SQL-based blockchain so every published number and data source is immutable and traceable.
- Rust said Truflation does not see tariffs showing up in its data, and private-label brands like Costco's Kirkland are pushing unit costs down.
- Problem Sniper said Bitcoin is sitting at support, with 55K to 56K as a possible lower level if it drops further.

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