PANIC DAY: What Level of Freak-Out is Appropriate for YOUR Investments?

WEBVTT
0
00:00:00.509 --> 00:00:01.350
We are here.
1
00:00:01.549 --> 00:00:02.630
It is panic day.
2
00:00:02.710 --> 00:00:02.869
Yes,
3
00:00:02.990 --> 00:00:03.950
panic day
4
00:00:04.190 --> 00:00:04.989
has arrived.
5
00:00:05.070 --> 00:00:05.849
I will let you know
6
00:00:06.150 --> 00:00:07.889
exact precisely
7
00:00:08.109 --> 00:00:10.039
how much you should be freaking out
8
00:00:10.180 --> 00:00:11.670
when it comes to the upcoming midterms.
9
00:00:11.909 --> 00:00:13.739
I'll also share some of my prediction pain
10
00:00:13.909 --> 00:00:16.930
when it comes to uh Trump's very short tenured press secretary,
11
00:00:17.149 --> 00:00:20.850
and I've got a little pushback planned for the claim that prediction markets
12
00:00:21.030 --> 00:00:22.350
are just gambling.
13
00:00:22.569 --> 00:00:24.649
We'll get into that and so much more coming up
14
00:00:24.750 --> 00:00:25.770
on Predictable
15
00:00:25.879 --> 00:00:26.459
with Stu.
16
00:00:41.299 --> 00:00:43.299
Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
17
00:00:43.409 --> 00:00:44.139
It is I,
18
00:00:44.540 --> 00:00:44.840
Stu,
19
00:00:44.979 --> 00:00:47.860
conveniently the host of the program here to host it,
20
00:00:47.970 --> 00:00:48.139
uh,
21
00:00:48.259 --> 00:00:50.139
here in solidarity with Jalen Hurts,
22
00:00:50.220 --> 00:00:50.369
uh,
23
00:00:50.569 --> 00:00:51.080
today as,
24
00:00:51.099 --> 00:00:51.209
uh,
25
00:00:51.259 --> 00:00:52.860
my Philadelphia Eagles going through a little bit of tough time.
26
00:00:52.900 --> 00:00:54.369
I'm not sure if you heard anybody about that.
27
00:00:54.540 --> 00:00:55.779
We don't have too much time for that today,
28
00:00:55.819 --> 00:00:56.419
unfortunately,
29
00:00:56.430 --> 00:00:57.259
because it's panic day.
30
00:00:57.299 --> 00:00:57.939
It's a big day,
31
00:00:57.979 --> 00:00:59.040
15 days
32
00:00:59.380 --> 00:01:00.340
until the midterm elections.
33
00:01:00.580 --> 00:01:03.259
Early voting is already happening in 30 states.
34
00:01:03.340 --> 00:01:04.000
One of them,
35
00:01:04.660 --> 00:01:05.059
Texas.
36
00:01:05.180 --> 00:01:05.919
How do I know that?
37
00:01:06.260 --> 00:01:08.879
Got 433,000 texts today about it.
38
00:01:09.779 --> 00:01:10.019
Hey,
39
00:01:10.129 --> 00:01:11.330
did you know that
40
00:01:11.540 --> 00:01:12.510
you could vote today?
41
00:01:12.620 --> 00:01:12.860
Hey,
42
00:01:12.940 --> 00:01:13.500
did you know?
43
00:01:13.569 --> 00:01:13.900
Are you,
44
00:01:14.059 --> 00:01:14.720
are you gonna?
45
00:01:14.980 --> 00:01:15.459
All right,
46
00:01:15.540 --> 00:01:16.209
I got it.
47
00:01:16.389 --> 00:01:17.059
Thank you so much.
48
00:01:17.220 --> 00:01:17.410
Uh,
49
00:01:17.500 --> 00:01:19.459
October 19th is the day Alaska,
50
00:01:19.569 --> 00:01:19.970
Arkansas,
51
00:01:20.089 --> 00:01:20.580
Colorado,
52
00:01:21.019 --> 00:01:21.459
Connecticut,
53
00:01:21.739 --> 00:01:22.339
South Carolina,
54
00:01:22.379 --> 00:01:23.000
and Texas
55
00:01:23.459 --> 00:01:24.379
all start up today.
56
00:01:24.540 --> 00:01:25.080
Much more
57
00:01:25.260 --> 00:01:26.559
coming up later in the week.
58
00:01:26.699 --> 00:01:26.900
Um,
59
00:01:26.940 --> 00:01:27.980
I wanna start with this,
60
00:01:28.339 --> 00:01:28.459
uh,
61
00:01:28.540 --> 00:01:30.410
fundraising data coming from the down ballot,
62
00:01:30.510 --> 00:01:30.739
uh,
63
00:01:30.860 --> 00:01:31.620
the Morning Digest,
64
00:01:31.699 --> 00:01:32.000
the,
65
00:01:32.139 --> 00:01:32.220
uh,
66
00:01:32.260 --> 00:01:34.220
Democrats just crushed Republicans in fundraising
67
00:01:34.220 --> 00:01:36.019
and whether they're weathering GOP's onslaught.
68
00:01:36.379 --> 00:01:36.809
This is,
69
00:01:36.819 --> 00:01:37.519
uh,
70
00:01:37.940 --> 00:01:38.500
data that comes,
71
00:01:38.580 --> 00:01:39.580
I'm gonna read you some of this.
72
00:01:40.319 --> 00:01:42.440
New disclosures compiled by the down ballot show
73
00:01:42.440 --> 00:01:44.839
that Democrats running in next month's elections,
74
00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:46.459
along with independents,
75
00:01:46.639 --> 00:01:47.680
campaigning with Democratic support,
76
00:01:47.800 --> 00:01:48.000
by the way,
77
00:01:48.040 --> 00:01:49.309
that just means Democrats
78
00:01:50.000 --> 00:01:51.919
for those people in Idaho,
79
00:01:52.239 --> 00:01:53.279
South Dakota,
80
00:01:53.559 --> 00:01:54.199
uh,
81
00:01:54.339 --> 00:01:55.330
Nebraska,
82
00:01:55.599 --> 00:01:56.300
and,
83
00:01:56.319 --> 00:01:56.610
uh,
84
00:01:56.639 --> 00:01:57.160
where's the other one?
85
00:01:57.199 --> 00:01:57.599
Idaho,
86
00:01:58.360 --> 00:01:59.120
Idaho,
87
00:01:59.379 --> 00:01:59.919
Nebraska,
88
00:02:00.110 --> 00:02:00.720
South Dakota,
89
00:02:00.800 --> 00:02:01.419
and Montana.
90
00:02:02.019 --> 00:02:02.989
If you're in one of those states,
91
00:02:03.110 --> 00:02:03.510
guess what?
92
00:02:03.629 --> 00:02:04.389
They're just Democrats.
93
00:02:04.500 --> 00:02:04.660
Um,
94
00:02:04.750 --> 00:02:06.129
new disclosures compiled
95
00:02:06.349 --> 00:02:10.809
say that the Democrats hauled in $499 million
96
00:02:11.100 --> 00:02:12.910
from July 1st to September 30th.
97
00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:14.699
GOP
98
00:02:15.160 --> 00:02:17.119
194.
99
00:02:17.720 --> 00:02:19.300
499
100
00:02:19.720 --> 00:02:21.240
to 194.
101
00:02:23.289 --> 00:02:25.020
499
102
00:02:25.490 --> 00:02:28.119
to 194.
103
00:02:28.289 --> 00:02:29.440
That is a big gain.
104
00:02:29.970 --> 00:02:33.149
Democrats will go into the final month of the race with more cash available,
105
00:02:33.210 --> 00:02:36.309
$538 million to $392 million.
106
00:02:36.929 --> 00:02:38.330
Republican super PACs are the only way
107
00:02:38.330 --> 00:02:40.289
that Republicans are fighting back against this.
108
00:02:40.410 --> 00:02:42.470
They are winning the super PAC battle by a lot.
109
00:02:43.130 --> 00:02:43.770
A new report
110
00:02:44.009 --> 00:02:47.270
was published on Friday Ad Impact revealed that Republicans had spent
111
00:02:47.649 --> 00:02:52.169
or booked $242 million compared to $101 million for Democrats.
112
00:02:52.550 --> 00:02:52.759
Um,
113
00:02:52.800 --> 00:02:53.559
in Texas,
114
00:02:53.679 --> 00:02:54.520
for example,
115
00:02:54.899 --> 00:02:55.110
um,
116
00:02:55.360 --> 00:02:55.660
now
117
00:02:55.839 --> 00:02:56.309
they do have,
118
00:02:56.399 --> 00:02:59.139
so what you're having is the donations are all going to Democrats.
119
00:02:59.360 --> 00:03:00.800
That is a measure of enthusiasm,
120
00:03:00.960 --> 00:03:02.500
should worry you if you happen to be
121
00:03:02.720 --> 00:03:05.630
someone who's rooting for conservatives or Republicans in some of these races.
122
00:03:05.910 --> 00:03:06.479
On the other side,
123
00:03:06.550 --> 00:03:07.050
a lot of,
124
00:03:07.199 --> 00:03:07.350
uh,
125
00:03:07.440 --> 00:03:07.600
big,
126
00:03:07.800 --> 00:03:07.869
uh,
127
00:03:07.990 --> 00:03:09.250
big pockets are coming in and saying,
128
00:03:09.320 --> 00:03:09.479
OK,
129
00:03:09.589 --> 00:03:10.500
we're gonna fund these
130
00:03:10.679 --> 00:03:11.460
super PACs
131
00:03:11.639 --> 00:03:13.000
to even the playing field a little bit.
132
00:03:13.240 --> 00:03:15.720
Elon Musk being kind of preeminent among them,
133
00:03:15.949 --> 00:03:16.080
uh,
134
00:03:16.149 --> 00:03:18.960
hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into these elections.
135
00:03:19.300 --> 00:03:19.580
The,
136
00:03:19.660 --> 00:03:20.860
the issue with that,
137
00:03:21.059 --> 00:03:21.419
cause you,
138
00:03:21.539 --> 00:03:23.690
you can even up spending doing it that way.
139
00:03:23.970 --> 00:03:24.619
The problem is,
140
00:03:24.690 --> 00:03:24.970
of course,
141
00:03:25.059 --> 00:03:26.889
the government wants to get
142
00:03:27.130 --> 00:03:28.759
a favorable treatment for themselves.
143
00:03:29.259 --> 00:03:30.320
So they've all put into,
144
00:03:30.339 --> 00:03:31.130
into the rules,
145
00:03:31.220 --> 00:03:32.089
uh,
146
00:03:32.100 --> 00:03:35.679
an opportunity for them to advertise at ridiculously low prices,
147
00:03:35.979 --> 00:03:36.399
uh,
148
00:03:36.410 --> 00:03:36.880
because
149
00:03:37.250 --> 00:03:38.050
they're dirtbags,
150
00:03:38.100 --> 00:03:38.259
right?
151
00:03:38.309 --> 00:03:38.690
That's what,
152
00:03:38.740 --> 00:03:39.059
uh,
153
00:03:39.179 --> 00:03:40.979
that's what government officials typically are.
154
00:03:41.300 --> 00:03:42.699
So they have put into themselves,
155
00:03:42.779 --> 00:03:42.940
hey,
156
00:03:43.020 --> 00:03:44.740
what if we just run ads for ourselves,
157
00:03:44.820 --> 00:03:47.000
we should be able to pay like 1/8 the cost.
158
00:03:47.660 --> 00:03:47.779
Uh,
159
00:03:47.899 --> 00:03:48.039
now,
160
00:03:48.169 --> 00:03:50.479
a 1/8 obviously sounds a little bit ridiculous,
161
00:03:50.660 --> 00:03:52.740
but that's what happens is you have a situation where the
162
00:03:52.740 --> 00:03:55.320
super PAC money comes in and has to buy at market rates
163
00:03:55.660 --> 00:03:57.619
where politicians get to pay a lot less.
164
00:03:57.710 --> 00:03:59.059
Let me give you an example of that cause I said,
165
00:03:59.110 --> 00:03:59.259
you know,
166
00:03:59.300 --> 00:04:00.619
1/8 obviously a little ridiculous.
167
00:04:00.660 --> 00:04:01.889
We have actual numbers for this.
168
00:04:02.220 --> 00:04:02.330
Uh,
169
00:04:02.380 --> 00:04:02.660
for example,
170
00:04:02.740 --> 00:04:04.899
the AP reported last month that Texas had to pay,
171
00:04:04.979 --> 00:04:05.100
uh,
172
00:04:05.220 --> 00:04:05.770
Texas PAC,
173
00:04:05.820 --> 00:04:07.259
which is the Pro-Paxton Group,
174
00:04:07.619 --> 00:04:10.580
had to spend $450,000 in September to air a
175
00:04:10.580 --> 00:04:12.300
single ad in Austin during a football game.
176
00:04:13.220 --> 00:04:14.119
9 times
177
00:04:14.660 --> 00:04:15.779
as much as Telerico.
178
00:04:17.428 --> 00:04:17.808
So,
179
00:04:18.108 --> 00:04:18.699
1/8,
180
00:04:18.709 --> 00:04:21.128
obviously ridiculous because it's actually 1/9,
181
00:04:21.678 --> 00:04:22.848
at least in some cases.
182
00:04:23.188 --> 00:04:24.539
1/9.
183
00:04:24.628 --> 00:04:25.489
So the money,
184
00:04:25.709 --> 00:04:28.648
these money numbers that you'll hear from uh super PAC groups
185
00:04:28.789 --> 00:04:29.699
are impressive,
186
00:04:29.868 --> 00:04:31.109
and I'm glad people are doing it,
187
00:04:31.169 --> 00:04:33.419
but it's a lot harder for that money to spread around.
188
00:04:33.709 --> 00:04:33.868
Uh,
189
00:04:33.908 --> 00:04:37.109
the money's coming in directly to the campaign's much easier to spend,
190
00:04:37.229 --> 00:04:38.248
much lower prices.
191
00:04:38.549 --> 00:04:40.368
And that brings us to panic day.
192
00:04:40.789 --> 00:04:40.949
Yes,
193
00:04:41.049 --> 00:04:41.968
it's panic day.
194
00:04:43.339 --> 00:04:44.269
A lot of people asked me.
195
00:04:44.429 --> 00:04:44.630
They said,
196
00:04:44.709 --> 00:04:45.160
hey,
197
00:04:45.670 --> 00:04:47.010
is it time to panic
198
00:04:47.390 --> 00:04:47.989
about this election?
199
00:04:48.059 --> 00:04:48.350
And I said,
200
00:04:48.429 --> 00:04:48.829
no,
201
00:04:49.269 --> 00:04:49.309
no,
202
00:04:49.390 --> 00:04:50.390
it is not time to panic.
203
00:04:50.470 --> 00:04:51.850
I'll tell you when the time to panic is
204
00:04:52.070 --> 00:04:53.260
October 19th.
205
00:04:53.350 --> 00:04:54.769
Now that served a couple of purposes.
206
00:04:54.869 --> 00:04:55.380
Number one,
207
00:04:55.630 --> 00:04:56.410
made me patient
208
00:04:56.790 --> 00:04:59.459
with my prediction market positions and my electoral hopes.
209
00:04:59.510 --> 00:05:00.309
But number two,
210
00:05:00.510 --> 00:05:03.570
it also gave me an excuse to not talk about it for a couple of weeks.
211
00:05:03.950 --> 00:05:04.750
Unfortunately,
212
00:05:04.869 --> 00:05:08.190
the way the calendar works is eventually October 19th comes up.
213
00:05:08.859 --> 00:05:09.690
And it came up today.
214
00:05:09.809 --> 00:05:10.320
Yes,
215
00:05:10.700 --> 00:05:11.709
October 19th
216
00:05:11.940 --> 00:05:12.559
is
217
00:05:12.760 --> 00:05:13.839
panic day.
218
00:05:14.140 --> 00:05:15.279
We are here.
219
00:05:15.660 --> 00:05:16.600
It is time
220
00:05:17.059 --> 00:05:17.570
to freak out,
221
00:05:17.619 --> 00:05:18.329
or is it?
222
00:05:18.579 --> 00:05:20.160
We came up with a DEFCON scale.
223
00:05:20.500 --> 00:05:21.540
DEFCON 5 being,
224
00:05:21.619 --> 00:05:21.750
look,
225
00:05:21.980 --> 00:05:22.600
everything's totally fine.
226
00:05:22.660 --> 00:05:23.410
It's peace time.
227
00:05:23.660 --> 00:05:24.529
No panic at all.
228
00:05:24.899 --> 00:05:26.279
Zero panic whatsoever.
229
00:05:26.899 --> 00:05:27.459
DEFCON 4,
230
00:05:27.500 --> 00:05:28.130
a little bit more panic,
231
00:05:28.209 --> 00:05:28.899
DEFCON 3 more,
232
00:05:29.019 --> 00:05:29.500
DEFCON 2,
233
00:05:29.519 --> 00:05:30.100
holy crap,
234
00:05:30.220 --> 00:05:30.739
lots of panic.
235
00:05:30.820 --> 00:05:31.700
DEFCON 10 my God,
236
00:05:31.790 --> 00:05:32.500
we're in a nuclear war.
237
00:05:34.269 --> 00:05:35.779
So when it comes to the elections,
238
00:05:35.829 --> 00:05:38.609
if you happen to be a conservative or a Republican,
239
00:05:39.109 --> 00:05:39.989
I would say,
240
00:05:40.029 --> 00:05:40.339
uh,
241
00:05:40.429 --> 00:05:41.070
panic day,
242
00:05:41.209 --> 00:05:41.820
uh,
243
00:05:41.910 --> 00:05:44.609
DEFCON scale will bring you to DEFCON 2.
244
00:05:44.950 --> 00:05:46.160
DEFCON 2 is the highest,
245
00:05:46.309 --> 00:05:47.209
second highest level
246
00:05:47.470 --> 00:05:48.220
of alert,
247
00:05:48.470 --> 00:05:51.649
and you could see I looked very panicked in that particular photo.
248
00:05:51.989 --> 00:05:52.309
Um,
249
00:05:52.549 --> 00:05:52.670
it,
250
00:05:52.910 --> 00:05:54.070
why DEFCON 2?
251
00:05:55.739 --> 00:05:57.660
This is a a real threat.
252
00:05:58.640 --> 00:05:59.779
It's a real threat
253
00:06:00.079 --> 00:06:03.359
to conservative governance if that's something that you care about,
254
00:06:03.959 --> 00:06:04.910
Republican majorities,
255
00:06:04.920 --> 00:06:06.140
if that's something that you care about,
256
00:06:06.399 --> 00:06:07.459
even to
257
00:06:08.079 --> 00:06:10.149
red states that you'd never thought you'd lose.
258
00:06:10.320 --> 00:06:11.820
There's a real threat there.
259
00:06:12.239 --> 00:06:14.720
This is not hype from the media solely,
260
00:06:14.899 --> 00:06:17.119
though they are very excited about it and,
261
00:06:17.329 --> 00:06:18.799
and wanna tell you about it all the time.
262
00:06:19.220 --> 00:06:19.549
But those,
263
00:06:19.670 --> 00:06:20.589
these risks are real.
264
00:06:20.709 --> 00:06:21.779
There's something that actually matters.
265
00:06:21.790 --> 00:06:24.459
And if you happen to be a person who wants to be involved in the elections,
266
00:06:24.670 --> 00:06:26.140
if you happen to be a person who wants to send out,
267
00:06:26.209 --> 00:06:26.540
let's say,
268
00:06:26.549 --> 00:06:29.170
5000 annoying text messages per day to remind me
269
00:06:29.390 --> 00:06:30.209
to vote early,
270
00:06:30.709 --> 00:06:31.250
um,
271
00:06:31.869 --> 00:06:34.359
now's probably the time to get on board with one of those,
272
00:06:34.750 --> 00:06:35.579
uh,
273
00:06:35.589 --> 00:06:37.450
efforts if you want to.
274
00:06:37.769 --> 00:06:38.209
Um,
275
00:06:38.320 --> 00:06:38.929
volunteer,
276
00:06:39.010 --> 00:06:40.950
if you thought about making phone calls for your party,
277
00:06:41.049 --> 00:06:42.109
if you thought about,
278
00:06:42.329 --> 00:06:43.000
um,
279
00:06:43.010 --> 00:06:43.529
donating,
280
00:06:43.609 --> 00:06:46.269
if you thought about doing all those things that we do
281
00:06:46.489 --> 00:06:48.109
to help these parties along,
282
00:06:48.410 --> 00:06:49.890
so that they can later disappoint us.
283
00:06:50.570 --> 00:06:51.359
Um,
284
00:06:51.779 --> 00:06:52.700
now is the time to do it,
285
00:06:52.739 --> 00:06:53.369
because I,
286
00:06:53.420 --> 00:06:54.250
I can tell you this,
287
00:06:54.339 --> 00:06:55.859
I've gone through a lot of data for this election.
288
00:06:55.980 --> 00:06:57.250
I've watched a lot of these elections.
289
00:06:57.339 --> 00:06:58.820
I've seen them for years and years and years,
290
00:06:58.859 --> 00:06:59.820
and I've seen all the cycles,
291
00:06:59.859 --> 00:07:00.619
I've seen all the claims,
292
00:07:00.670 --> 00:07:01.339
I've seen all of it.
293
00:07:05.049 --> 00:07:06.269
What we're looking at here.
294
00:07:06.880 --> 00:07:09.839
Is a likely a bad result for Republicans
295
00:07:09.839 --> 00:07:12.119
that has a large Overton window of possibilities.
296
00:07:14.000 --> 00:07:16.239
Inside of that Overton window of possibilities,
297
00:07:16.279 --> 00:07:17.299
and we'll get into this in a second,
298
00:07:18.029 --> 00:07:18.540
is
299
00:07:19.040 --> 00:07:23.059
a catastrophic outcome for Republicans where states
300
00:07:23.480 --> 00:07:24.019
like,
301
00:07:24.320 --> 00:07:24.549
uh,
302
00:07:24.640 --> 00:07:24.720
well,
303
00:07:24.799 --> 00:07:25.920
I'll give you the examples in a minute,
304
00:07:26.040 --> 00:07:27.160
bright red states.
305
00:07:27.809 --> 00:07:27.820
Are
306
00:07:28.730 --> 00:07:29.769
theoretically in play.
307
00:07:33.859 --> 00:07:34.820
I'll explain this in a second.
308
00:07:35.559 --> 00:07:38.470
I want to give you a different FCON as well for prediction market positions,
309
00:07:38.480 --> 00:07:39.470
cause that's what this show is.
310
00:07:39.640 --> 00:07:40.279
It's about elections,
311
00:07:40.320 --> 00:07:41.619
it's about prediction markets.
312
00:07:42.000 --> 00:07:43.839
If you're in prediction market positions and you
313
00:07:43.839 --> 00:07:46.100
took the types of positions that I have taken
314
00:07:46.359 --> 00:07:50.040
over the last 4 to 5 months or so.
315
00:07:51.179 --> 00:07:53.119
I'm gonna put you in DEFCON level 3,
316
00:07:53.459 --> 00:07:54.380
a little bit less
317
00:07:54.660 --> 00:07:56.000
than if you care about the outcome.
318
00:07:56.459 --> 00:07:57.739
DEFCON 3.
319
00:07:58.660 --> 00:07:59.899
For prediction markets.
320
00:08:00.660 --> 00:08:01.019
What does,
321
00:08:01.570 --> 00:08:02.040
uh,
322
00:08:02.109 --> 00:08:02.709
3,
323
00:08:03.579 --> 00:08:03.970
tell you?
324
00:08:04.089 --> 00:08:04.179
Well,
325
00:08:04.420 --> 00:08:05.010
it kind of tells you,
326
00:08:05.059 --> 00:08:05.260
look,
327
00:08:05.380 --> 00:08:06.679
there's real risk here,
328
00:08:07.179 --> 00:08:09.420
and you should do some things around the fringes
329
00:08:09.420 --> 00:08:11.880
to protect yourself from the worst possible outcomes.
330
00:08:12.100 --> 00:08:12.450
I,
331
00:08:12.579 --> 00:08:12.769
again,
332
00:08:12.899 --> 00:08:13.600
don't think
333
00:08:13.739 --> 00:08:15.799
there's an over 50% chance
334
00:08:15.980 --> 00:08:16.880
of these outcomes.
335
00:08:17.040 --> 00:08:17.940
I don't think there's an
336
00:08:18.339 --> 00:08:18.760
over
337
00:08:19.100 --> 00:08:21.100
25% chance of these outcomes,
338
00:08:21.260 --> 00:08:22.739
but it's not 1%.
339
00:08:23.130 --> 00:08:24.600
It's not 2%,
340
00:08:24.730 --> 00:08:25.640
it's higher than that.
341
00:08:25.929 --> 00:08:29.790
These are actual possibilities that we could see really big changes
342
00:08:30.010 --> 00:08:31.230
in our government and
343
00:08:31.410 --> 00:08:32.869
to the point that it's even
344
00:08:33.330 --> 00:08:35.729
threatening some of my prediction market positions
345
00:08:36.058 --> 00:08:36.909
that I took
346
00:08:37.250 --> 00:08:41.929
with a giant wall of protection around bad outcomes.
347
00:08:42.330 --> 00:08:42.690
Remember,
348
00:08:42.799 --> 00:08:45.890
I don't typically go into markets where I think it's a 50/50 shot.
349
00:08:46.049 --> 00:08:46.210
Uh,
350
00:08:46.270 --> 00:08:47.710
that's not how I play these things.
351
00:08:47.969 --> 00:08:50.059
I go into markets where I think I've got an 80% chance,
352
00:08:50.369 --> 00:08:51.570
and I can buy it for 60%.
353
00:08:52.090 --> 00:08:55.309
I'll go in where I think I have a 90% chance that I could buy it for 75%.
354
00:08:55.729 --> 00:08:56.830
I like doing that.
355
00:08:57.210 --> 00:08:59.950
I don't like going into 50/50 races cause I don't like losing.
356
00:09:01.380 --> 00:09:01.489
I,
357
00:09:01.580 --> 00:09:01.700
you know,
358
00:09:01.780 --> 00:09:02.159
I,
359
00:09:02.460 --> 00:09:02.570
I,
360
00:09:02.619 --> 00:09:03.059
I,
361
00:09:03.219 --> 00:09:05.400
I see some of these other traders that I follow,
362
00:09:06.059 --> 00:09:06.219
and,
363
00:09:06.330 --> 00:09:06.580
and they,
364
00:09:06.619 --> 00:09:06.770
I,
365
00:09:06.900 --> 00:09:09.000
they're much more adult than I am in some ways,
366
00:09:09.010 --> 00:09:10.580
and that they can handle it better.
367
00:09:10.659 --> 00:09:10.809
Like,
368
00:09:10.820 --> 00:09:10.940
I,
369
00:09:11.020 --> 00:09:12.049
they can handle losing.
370
00:09:12.340 --> 00:09:12.739
They realize,
371
00:09:12.820 --> 00:09:12.979
OK,
372
00:09:13.059 --> 00:09:15.090
I can lose 5 or 6 in a row and then I'll gain more.
373
00:09:15.299 --> 00:09:15.940
I don't like doing that.
374
00:09:16.020 --> 00:09:16.659
I like it going up.
375
00:09:16.739 --> 00:09:17.929
I like the whole margin.
376
00:09:17.979 --> 00:09:18.340
I like the,
377
00:09:18.419 --> 00:09:19.520
the ledger going up.
378
00:09:20.140 --> 00:09:21.059
Up and to the right.
379
00:09:21.140 --> 00:09:21.969
That's what I wanna see.
380
00:09:22.190 --> 00:09:22.619
And yes,
381
00:09:22.739 --> 00:09:24.059
I understand in that process,
382
00:09:24.140 --> 00:09:25.099
I'm gonna have some losses.
383
00:09:25.179 --> 00:09:26.260
You're gonna have that all the time.
384
00:09:26.690 --> 00:09:26.919
Um,
385
00:09:27.010 --> 00:09:28.950
but you wanna protect yourself against
386
00:09:29.130 --> 00:09:30.969
something that's going to reverse your progress,
387
00:09:31.010 --> 00:09:31.489
cause I hate that,
388
00:09:31.530 --> 00:09:32.159
it's annoying.
389
00:09:32.489 --> 00:09:32.729
Frankly,
390
00:09:32.770 --> 00:09:33.140
it's annoying.
391
00:09:33.169 --> 00:09:34.229
I don't like losing money,
392
00:09:34.250 --> 00:09:35.400
and I don't want you to lose money.
393
00:09:35.690 --> 00:09:39.080
One of the things that we do here is try to bring you through elections like this,
394
00:09:39.320 --> 00:09:41.070
even when they get a little shaky
395
00:09:41.330 --> 00:09:42.609
and find safe positions,
396
00:09:42.729 --> 00:09:44.609
safe harbors for your money to grow.
397
00:09:44.969 --> 00:09:46.559
And I think we found a lot of those,
398
00:09:46.929 --> 00:09:49.400
but there are some around the fringes that I'm a little concerned about,
399
00:09:49.530 --> 00:09:52.000
and I went through and did a very deep dive analysis of this,
400
00:09:52.049 --> 00:09:52.669
and I wanna kinda
401
00:09:53.090 --> 00:09:54.280
Go through this a little bit,
402
00:09:54.340 --> 00:09:55.659
rather than just give you the results,
403
00:09:55.750 --> 00:09:57.299
because I want you to be able to do this for yourself,
404
00:09:57.340 --> 00:09:58.530
if you're in prediction markets,
405
00:09:58.700 --> 00:10:00.359
if you're looking at your portfolio,
406
00:10:00.580 --> 00:10:01.500
how do you walk through,
407
00:10:01.570 --> 00:10:03.119
how do you examine this
408
00:10:03.299 --> 00:10:04.119
step by step?
409
00:10:04.369 --> 00:10:07.080
How do you kind of think through all of this for yourself?
410
00:10:07.260 --> 00:10:07.599
Now,
411
00:10:10.729 --> 00:10:12.489
You have to start asking yourself tough questions.
412
00:10:13.820 --> 00:10:14.489
And
413
00:10:14.909 --> 00:10:16.210
nobody likes this part of it,
414
00:10:16.750 --> 00:10:18.570
because once you commit to a position,
415
00:10:18.830 --> 00:10:20.809
what you wanna do is just watch it win.
416
00:10:21.309 --> 00:10:22.289
That's what we all want to do.
417
00:10:22.690 --> 00:10:23.969
And there's also a temptation,
418
00:10:24.070 --> 00:10:24.750
oddly,
419
00:10:24.909 --> 00:10:25.909
on the other side of that,
420
00:10:26.229 --> 00:10:27.270
is to go down with the ship.
421
00:10:28.440 --> 00:10:30.190
A lot of times that's how I'm tempted to be,
422
00:10:30.530 --> 00:10:30.929
is to say,
423
00:10:30.969 --> 00:10:31.250
OK,
424
00:10:31.330 --> 00:10:31.530
I,
425
00:10:31.650 --> 00:10:32.750
I got this position before.
426
00:10:33.130 --> 00:10:33.289
Yeah,
427
00:10:33.359 --> 00:10:34.210
it's in worst case,
428
00:10:34.289 --> 00:10:34.570
but that,
429
00:10:34.690 --> 00:10:35.760
that money's already been spent.
430
00:10:35.840 --> 00:10:36.809
And I'm going down with the ship.
431
00:10:36.880 --> 00:10:37.599
I'm sticking through it.
432
00:10:37.650 --> 00:10:38.669
I'm sticking through that position.
433
00:10:38.690 --> 00:10:39.710
And that might be
434
00:10:39.929 --> 00:10:41.530
the right case in some circumstances,
435
00:10:41.599 --> 00:10:42.880
but it also might not be.
436
00:10:43.530 --> 00:10:45.140
Sometimes you should get on the lifeboat,
437
00:10:45.450 --> 00:10:46.770
and even though the lifeboat's not nice,
438
00:10:46.890 --> 00:10:48.250
as nice as your previous boat,
439
00:10:48.409 --> 00:10:49.530
at least you're still floating.
440
00:10:50.830 --> 00:10:51.830
That is
441
00:10:52.030 --> 00:10:54.849
the type of tough consideration you have to take in a moment
442
00:10:54.950 --> 00:10:55.619
like this,
443
00:10:55.830 --> 00:10:56.289
where
444
00:10:56.710 --> 00:10:59.039
really negative possibilities are possible.
445
00:10:59.429 --> 00:10:59.890
So,
446
00:11:00.309 --> 00:11:03.770
one of the main things you need to do is ask yourself a core question,
447
00:11:04.190 --> 00:11:04.950
and you can do this,
448
00:11:05.190 --> 00:11:07.390
you really should do this in every one of your positions.
449
00:11:07.469 --> 00:11:08.849
I did this this weekend,
450
00:11:09.309 --> 00:11:10.049
but also
451
00:11:10.229 --> 00:11:13.619
went through and really focused on like my 20 biggest positions,
452
00:11:13.950 --> 00:11:18.049
because that's probably 60 to 70% of my portfolio,
453
00:11:18.130 --> 00:11:18.520
um.
454
00:11:18.869 --> 00:11:20.849
So that's where I focused most of my analysis.
455
00:11:21.229 --> 00:11:21.650
Um,
456
00:11:21.830 --> 00:11:23.109
and you have to ask yourself the question.
457
00:11:24.200 --> 00:11:25.659
Look at the market
458
00:11:26.000 --> 00:11:26.830
and what you know
459
00:11:27.080 --> 00:11:27.900
about a particular race.
460
00:11:28.909 --> 00:11:30.500
And then ask yourself,
461
00:11:30.950 --> 00:11:32.330
would I buy
462
00:11:32.750 --> 00:11:33.739
this position
463
00:11:33.989 --> 00:11:35.289
at this size
464
00:11:35.830 --> 00:11:36.140
today?
465
00:11:37.789 --> 00:11:39.510
Would you buy this position
466
00:11:39.729 --> 00:11:41.010
at this size
467
00:11:41.429 --> 00:11:41.710
today?
468
00:11:42.979 --> 00:11:43.369
You might say,
469
00:11:43.450 --> 00:11:43.539
well,
470
00:11:43.580 --> 00:11:44.479
I don't have to buy it today,
471
00:11:44.539 --> 00:11:45.820
I bought it 3 months ago,
472
00:11:46.179 --> 00:11:47.020
and that's true.
473
00:11:47.960 --> 00:11:49.659
But if you don't think it's a value today,
474
00:11:50.590 --> 00:11:52.390
There should be a consideration of one,
475
00:11:52.500 --> 00:11:53.460
resizing it,
476
00:11:53.750 --> 00:11:55.010
maybe making it smaller.
477
00:11:56.000 --> 00:11:56.599
Two,
478
00:11:57.000 --> 00:11:57.940
maybe dumping it completely.
479
00:11:58.719 --> 00:11:59.919
Because if you bought something where,
480
00:12:00.000 --> 00:12:00.140
like,
481
00:12:00.150 --> 00:12:01.859
if you bought Graham Plattner to be,
482
00:12:01.919 --> 00:12:02.099
uh,
483
00:12:02.109 --> 00:12:03.179
the senator of Maine
484
00:12:03.539 --> 00:12:05.409
at 80 cents because you were convinced,
485
00:12:05.640 --> 00:12:06.479
and then he's now,
486
00:12:06.549 --> 00:12:06.669
uh,
487
00:12:06.719 --> 00:12:06.849
uh,
488
00:12:06.919 --> 00:12:09.599
he's got charges of rape going on and he's down to 20 cents.
489
00:12:11.229 --> 00:12:12.169
It might be time
490
00:12:13.479 --> 00:12:15.840
To sell that contract and save the 20 cents.
491
00:12:16.210 --> 00:12:17.219
That's an extreme example.
492
00:12:17.450 --> 00:12:17.609
Much,
493
00:12:17.739 --> 00:12:18.530
most of these are much,
494
00:12:18.590 --> 00:12:19.609
much harder to deal with.
495
00:12:20.530 --> 00:12:20.950
So,
496
00:12:21.210 --> 00:12:21.929
I say that,
497
00:12:21.940 --> 00:12:22.159
um,
498
00:12:22.190 --> 00:12:24.549
because I went through my entire order book this weekend,
499
00:12:24.849 --> 00:12:26.109
all my positions,
500
00:12:26.530 --> 00:12:27.710
and I,
501
00:12:27.849 --> 00:12:28.510
I looked at
502
00:12:28.679 --> 00:12:29.010
those,
503
00:12:29.049 --> 00:12:30.489
I looked at some of them that were just,
504
00:12:30.530 --> 00:12:31.549
I thought interesting
505
00:12:31.849 --> 00:12:32.989
to you as well.
506
00:12:33.750 --> 00:12:34.219
And
507
00:12:34.799 --> 00:12:35.000
one of,
508
00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:39.479
one of the reasons why we built PredictableShow.com and why we put all the tools
509
00:12:39.479 --> 00:12:41.270
that are on PredictableShow.com is so that you
510
00:12:41.270 --> 00:12:42.919
can do this type of analysis yourself.
511
00:12:43.400 --> 00:12:44.159
You can look at this and,
512
00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:44.750
and these are,
513
00:12:45.000 --> 00:12:45.119
you know,
514
00:12:45.239 --> 00:12:45.549
people are like,
515
00:12:45.559 --> 00:12:45.840
oh gosh,
516
00:12:46.020 --> 00:12:46.239
so you,
517
00:12:46.320 --> 00:12:46.429
you,
518
00:12:46.559 --> 00:12:47.719
you built this election model.
519
00:12:47.799 --> 00:12:49.219
Why you do that for clicks?
520
00:12:49.679 --> 00:12:49.760
Well,
521
00:12:49.799 --> 00:12:49.960
I mean,
522
00:12:50.000 --> 00:12:51.190
I would like you to click on it,
523
00:12:51.380 --> 00:12:51.520
right?
524
00:12:51.599 --> 00:12:54.559
I would like you to get value out of your membership so you stick around.
525
00:12:54.640 --> 00:12:56.859
I know lots of you are and I appreciate that.
526
00:12:57.119 --> 00:12:57.359
Um,
527
00:12:57.479 --> 00:12:57.859
but
528
00:12:58.000 --> 00:12:59.090
that's not why I built them.
529
00:12:59.340 --> 00:12:59.760
Selfishly,
530
00:12:59.799 --> 00:13:00.950
I built them for me
531
00:13:01.520 --> 00:13:03.179
because I'm in all these markets.
532
00:13:03.700 --> 00:13:06.330
And I need to have tools to help me navigate them.
533
00:13:06.469 --> 00:13:07.989
It's really easy to get vibes.
534
00:13:08.049 --> 00:13:09.270
It's really easy to look at something and say,
535
00:13:09.349 --> 00:13:09.429
well,
536
00:13:09.469 --> 00:13:10.619
I think that person's gonna win,
537
00:13:10.669 --> 00:13:11.030
but do,
538
00:13:11.109 --> 00:13:11.869
have you tested that?
539
00:13:11.940 --> 00:13:12.929
Have you pushed yourself
540
00:13:13.349 --> 00:13:14.030
on that prediction?
541
00:13:14.270 --> 00:13:15.309
Have you really thought it through?
542
00:13:15.469 --> 00:13:17.989
Have you pushed yourself all the way to where you might be today?
543
00:13:18.919 --> 00:13:20.020
And that's an important thing.
544
00:13:20.200 --> 00:13:21.039
So asking yourself,
545
00:13:21.159 --> 00:13:21.979
would you buy this
546
00:13:22.159 --> 00:13:23.059
at this price
547
00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:24.799
in this size is big.
548
00:13:24.940 --> 00:13:25.440
Because you might say,
549
00:13:25.559 --> 00:13:25.640
well,
550
00:13:25.679 --> 00:13:27.030
I would take a flyer at this at,
551
00:13:27.090 --> 00:13:27.239
you know,
552
00:13:27.340 --> 00:13:27.869
50 cents.
553
00:13:27.919 --> 00:13:28.640
I bought it at 70 cents,
554
00:13:28.719 --> 00:13:29.359
now it's at 50 cents,
555
00:13:29.510 --> 00:13:30.539
but I'd take a flyer at 50.
556
00:13:30.719 --> 00:13:31.950
Would you have a big position?
557
00:13:32.119 --> 00:13:33.820
Cause you had a big position when it was at 70.
558
00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:34.840
In theory,
559
00:13:34.950 --> 00:13:35.919
if it's a great value,
560
00:13:36.039 --> 00:13:37.559
maybe you're buying even more at 50.
561
00:13:38.570 --> 00:13:39.539
Should you buy more?
562
00:13:39.760 --> 00:13:40.719
Should you dump some?
563
00:13:42.119 --> 00:13:42.380
Now,
564
00:13:42.880 --> 00:13:43.679
with all these tools,
565
00:13:43.760 --> 00:13:44.950
and this is how I went through this,
566
00:13:45.200 --> 00:13:46.070
we have the PMC,
567
00:13:46.119 --> 00:13:48.159
which is the predictable midterm consensus.
568
00:13:48.239 --> 00:13:49.059
This is a tool,
569
00:13:49.359 --> 00:13:50.760
it's an election model built.
570
00:13:50.840 --> 00:13:51.309
We market,
571
00:13:51.440 --> 00:13:53.619
we modeled all 35 races,
572
00:13:53.799 --> 00:13:55.030
and the two control,
573
00:13:55.039 --> 00:13:55.200
uh,
574
00:13:55.280 --> 00:13:55.570
House,
575
00:13:55.799 --> 00:13:56.159
House control,
576
00:13:56.260 --> 00:13:56.900
Senate control,
577
00:13:57.159 --> 00:13:57.270
uh,
578
00:13:57.280 --> 00:13:57.750
for you to see.
579
00:13:58.030 --> 00:13:59.520
Free subscribers can see House and Senate,
580
00:13:59.599 --> 00:13:59.679
uh,
581
00:13:59.760 --> 00:14:00.750
if you want all the Senate races,
582
00:14:01.039 --> 00:14:01.159
uh,
583
00:14:01.239 --> 00:14:02.320
you can be a premium subscriber.
584
00:14:02.400 --> 00:14:04.260
We would love you to join PredictableShow.com.
585
00:14:05.690 --> 00:14:06.429
We built that.
586
00:14:06.770 --> 00:14:09.090
We gave you the Republican freak out index,
587
00:14:09.210 --> 00:14:09.869
which is,
588
00:14:10.210 --> 00:14:10.460
uh,
589
00:14:10.530 --> 00:14:10.719
a,
590
00:14:10.750 --> 00:14:11.469
uh,
591
00:14:11.479 --> 00:14:11.840
uh,
592
00:14:11.849 --> 00:14:12.599
separate from the polls,
593
00:14:12.750 --> 00:14:14.010
separate from the candidate quality,
594
00:14:14.130 --> 00:14:15.169
separate for the prediction markets,
595
00:14:15.250 --> 00:14:16.070
all that to the side.
596
00:14:16.650 --> 00:14:17.280
Let's look at the
597
00:14:17.409 --> 00:14:20.400
underlying metrics that are causing Republicans' problems,
598
00:14:20.409 --> 00:14:22.080
and we laid out six big ones.
599
00:14:22.369 --> 00:14:24.250
We then measured them state by state.
600
00:14:24.530 --> 00:14:24.729
Where,
601
00:14:24.809 --> 00:14:26.849
where would be the biggest reason to freak out?
602
00:14:26.960 --> 00:14:29.549
Where would be the least reason to freak out if you happen to be
603
00:14:29.650 --> 00:14:31.890
a Republican or Republican candidate right now?
604
00:14:32.210 --> 00:14:32.580
Um,
605
00:14:32.979 --> 00:14:34.320
that's available as well.
606
00:14:34.539 --> 00:14:34.739
Um,
607
00:14:34.859 --> 00:14:35.020
uh,
608
00:14:35.099 --> 00:14:36.179
we did it on the show here.
609
00:14:36.250 --> 00:14:38.179
I think we posted it on social media as well.
610
00:14:38.380 --> 00:14:39.219
You can check that out.
611
00:14:39.419 --> 00:14:43.400
I can tell you from memory that the number one state in the entire union
612
00:14:43.500 --> 00:14:47.140
for freak out potential for all these underlying metrics was Texas.
613
00:14:47.460 --> 00:14:47.549
Uh,
614
00:14:47.619 --> 00:14:48.460
Iowa was high,
615
00:14:48.570 --> 00:14:48.729
uh,
616
00:14:48.859 --> 00:14:49.919
Michigan was high.
617
00:14:50.190 --> 00:14:50.380
Um,
618
00:14:50.700 --> 00:14:51.539
a few other states were high,
619
00:14:51.659 --> 00:14:52.400
some others were low.
620
00:14:53.909 --> 00:14:54.750
So that built into it.
621
00:14:55.000 --> 00:14:55.200
And I,
622
00:14:55.299 --> 00:14:55.440
you know,
623
00:14:55.520 --> 00:14:55.719
I,
624
00:14:55.840 --> 00:14:59.200
I built this stuff so you could go and kind of do this analysis on your own.
625
00:15:01.099 --> 00:15:02.130
Of whatever positions you have.
626
00:15:02.429 --> 00:15:03.539
So this is kind of how I went through it.
627
00:15:03.580 --> 00:15:05.929
I'm just gonna give you a quick rundown of my process here,
628
00:15:06.369 --> 00:15:06.630
um,
629
00:15:06.750 --> 00:15:07.349
which was,
630
00:15:07.549 --> 00:15:07.909
number one,
631
00:15:07.989 --> 00:15:10.419
I took all of every single position I had,
632
00:15:10.590 --> 00:15:11.510
put it in a nice little,
633
00:15:11.549 --> 00:15:11.900
uh,
634
00:15:11.909 --> 00:15:14.260
spreadsheet type of situation so I could see it all together.
635
00:15:14.510 --> 00:15:15.289
I did a combination,
636
00:15:15.510 --> 00:15:15.830
for example,
637
00:15:15.909 --> 00:15:16.309
I made sure.
638
00:15:16.750 --> 00:15:17.969
If I have a pro,
639
00:15:18.229 --> 00:15:18.539
uh,
640
00:15:18.549 --> 00:15:19.659
Kottech position
641
00:15:19.869 --> 00:15:22.150
and an anti-Drazen position in,
642
00:15:22.190 --> 00:15:22.380
uh,
643
00:15:22.390 --> 00:15:22.619
in,
644
00:15:22.630 --> 00:15:22.929
uh,
645
00:15:22.940 --> 00:15:23.380
Oregon,
646
00:15:23.500 --> 00:15:25.630
I combine those because they're the same output,
647
00:15:25.739 --> 00:15:25.989
right?
648
00:15:26.299 --> 00:15:26.630
Um,
649
00:15:26.830 --> 00:15:28.309
so I make sure I understand the size.
650
00:15:28.640 --> 00:15:30.390
Sometimes you have two positions of equal size
651
00:15:30.390 --> 00:15:32.150
on two different sides of the same market,
652
00:15:32.510 --> 00:15:33.450
and so,
653
00:15:33.630 --> 00:15:34.630
if they resolve,
654
00:15:34.789 --> 00:15:35.549
they're gonna go,
655
00:15:35.630 --> 00:15:35.859
uh,
656
00:15:35.869 --> 00:15:37.309
very predictable directions.
657
00:15:37.630 --> 00:15:39.950
So why not understand that as one big position.
658
00:15:40.030 --> 00:15:40.770
So I did that.
659
00:15:41.030 --> 00:15:41.520
Um.
660
00:15:42.260 --> 00:15:44.780
I did the test as to whether I would buy this now.
661
00:15:44.820 --> 00:15:45.340
I went through that.
662
00:15:45.460 --> 00:15:46.890
One of the ways that I do that,
663
00:15:47.140 --> 00:15:47.559
um,
664
00:15:47.599 --> 00:15:48.239
is
665
00:15:48.580 --> 00:15:49.169
for me,
666
00:15:49.460 --> 00:15:50.380
take all the positions,
667
00:15:50.539 --> 00:15:52.080
take out what the market is at now.
668
00:15:52.710 --> 00:15:53.530
As if I don't know it,
669
00:15:53.559 --> 00:15:54.559
and some of them you remember,
670
00:15:54.640 --> 00:15:57.460
but a lot of them you don't when you have several positions in different markets.
671
00:15:57.679 --> 00:15:58.260
And I
672
00:15:58.599 --> 00:15:59.820
manually go through
673
00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:00.419
and say,
674
00:16:00.479 --> 00:16:00.900
OK,
675
00:16:00.989 --> 00:16:01.270
uh,
676
00:16:01.340 --> 00:16:01.859
I think
677
00:16:01.960 --> 00:16:03.599
that has a 70% chance of happening.
678
00:16:03.679 --> 00:16:05.030
That has a 75% chance.
679
00:16:05.400 --> 00:16:06.909
She has an 80% chance of winning,
680
00:16:07.159 --> 00:16:08.760
he has a 92% chance of winning,
681
00:16:08.919 --> 00:16:09.859
whatever the numbers are.
682
00:16:10.000 --> 00:16:10.859
And you put those down,
683
00:16:11.080 --> 00:16:13.340
and then you can compare them to what the markets actually are.
684
00:16:13.880 --> 00:16:14.950
Because a lot of times what you'll find is,
685
00:16:15.090 --> 00:16:16.429
I'm actually more optimistic on this.
686
00:16:16.479 --> 00:16:17.900
I should buy more of this contract,
687
00:16:18.159 --> 00:16:20.200
which I did do a little bit of this weekend.
688
00:16:20.599 --> 00:16:21.229
Um,
689
00:16:21.570 --> 00:16:22.000
you,
690
00:16:22.090 --> 00:16:22.289
uh,
691
00:16:22.409 --> 00:16:25.390
make sure that you understand certain races are correlated.
692
00:16:25.799 --> 00:16:27.570
That is a big mistake that people forget.
693
00:16:27.690 --> 00:16:27.929
Like they're,
694
00:16:28.049 --> 00:16:28.330
they'll say,
695
00:16:28.409 --> 00:16:28.609
well,
696
00:16:28.729 --> 00:16:28.890
there's,
697
00:16:28.969 --> 00:16:30.719
I've got 7 positions on Republicans,
698
00:16:30.770 --> 00:16:31.849
they can't lose all 7.
699
00:16:32.169 --> 00:16:32.289
Well,
700
00:16:32.409 --> 00:16:32.609
I mean,
701
00:16:32.690 --> 00:16:34.679
ask Kamala Harris if you can lose all 7 swing states.
702
00:16:34.729 --> 00:16:35.559
How does that work out for you?
703
00:16:35.640 --> 00:16:36.190
You can.
704
00:16:36.690 --> 00:16:37.000
And when it,
705
00:16:37.090 --> 00:16:39.070
when it tends to go one way for one party.
706
00:16:39.789 --> 00:16:40.250
Uh,
707
00:16:40.710 --> 00:16:42.190
a lot of times you will sweep those,
708
00:16:42.270 --> 00:16:42.580
uh,
709
00:16:42.789 --> 00:16:43.580
those swing states,
710
00:16:43.729 --> 00:16:44.229
not every time,
711
00:16:44.349 --> 00:16:45.289
but a lot of times you will.
712
00:16:45.739 --> 00:16:47.549
You have to understand that those movements are correlated,
713
00:16:47.659 --> 00:16:48.849
they move together,
714
00:16:49.070 --> 00:16:50.979
and if you think of them as just kind of coin flips
715
00:16:50.979 --> 00:16:52.859
over and over again that have nothing to do with each other,
716
00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:54.130
you will get burned.
717
00:16:54.390 --> 00:16:54.719
Um,
718
00:16:55.030 --> 00:16:55.330
run
719
00:16:55.510 --> 00:16:58.010
a bunch of scenarios that test where you are.
720
00:16:58.349 --> 00:16:59.630
I ran them on,
721
00:16:59.669 --> 00:17:00.289
uh,
722
00:17:00.549 --> 00:17:01.510
what if all the favorites win?
723
00:17:01.669 --> 00:17:02.429
Where does that leave me?
724
00:17:02.830 --> 00:17:04.089
What if all the underdogs win?
725
00:17:04.140 --> 00:17:04.930
Where does that leave me?
726
00:17:05.180 --> 00:17:06.219
What if all the Republicans win?
727
00:17:06.260 --> 00:17:06.810
Where does that leave you?
728
00:17:06.858 --> 00:17:07.719
Where do all the Democrats win?
729
00:17:07.780 --> 00:17:08.290
Where does that leave you?
730
00:17:08.348 --> 00:17:09.300
What if everyone who's,
731
00:17:09.310 --> 00:17:09.510
uh,
732
00:17:09.540 --> 00:17:10.848
90% favorite wins,
733
00:17:11.140 --> 00:17:12.410
and I lose everything below that?
734
00:17:12.569 --> 00:17:14.219
What happens if only my long shots hit?
735
00:17:14.459 --> 00:17:14.540
I,
736
00:17:14.618 --> 00:17:14.880
I,
737
00:17:15.098 --> 00:17:16.329
I tested as many ways as I could,
738
00:17:16.339 --> 00:17:17.900
just so I could understand where I was.
739
00:17:18.060 --> 00:17:19.640
And I did find some imbalances,
740
00:17:19.900 --> 00:17:20.170
um,
741
00:17:20.310 --> 00:17:20.680
there,
742
00:17:20.739 --> 00:17:21.130
um,
743
00:17:21.300 --> 00:17:21.760
that I
744
00:17:21.939 --> 00:17:23.390
kind of wasn't 100% sure.
745
00:17:23.540 --> 00:17:24.098
What happens in a,
746
00:17:24.170 --> 00:17:24.459
in a,
747
00:17:24.540 --> 00:17:25.020
in a,
748
00:17:25.260 --> 00:17:26.300
in a market like this.
749
00:17:27.050 --> 00:17:27.060
With
750
00:17:27.969 --> 00:17:29.790
a a widely expected
751
00:17:30.469 --> 00:17:31.390
blue lien,
752
00:17:32.050 --> 00:17:36.219
is you tend to look at all these contracts and find value.
753
00:17:37.130 --> 00:17:37.349
Uh,
754
00:17:37.420 --> 00:17:39.849
on the side that isn't favored,
755
00:17:39.930 --> 00:17:40.290
for example,
756
00:17:40.689 --> 00:17:41.030
Republicans,
757
00:17:41.089 --> 00:17:42.040
the fact that you can get,
758
00:17:42.170 --> 00:17:42.290
uh,
759
00:17:42.369 --> 00:17:42.760
um,
760
00:17:42.930 --> 00:17:43.229
uh,
761
00:17:43.250 --> 00:17:45.790
something like Mississippi in the high 80s right now
762
00:17:46.050 --> 00:17:46.989
is so.
763
00:17:48.189 --> 00:17:49.030
Bizarre,
764
00:17:49.589 --> 00:17:49.719
right?
765
00:17:49.829 --> 00:17:50.109
Like,
766
00:17:50.229 --> 00:17:52.890
the fact that you can have that is so crazy
767
00:17:53.630 --> 00:17:54.140
that,
768
00:17:54.170 --> 00:17:54.550
uh,
769
00:17:54.650 --> 00:17:54.890
you know,
770
00:17:55.150 --> 00:17:55.310
you,
771
00:17:55.550 --> 00:17:56.540
you tend to want to jump on that,
772
00:17:56.550 --> 00:17:59.180
and I have jumped on a bunch of contracts like that,
773
00:17:59.430 --> 00:17:59.869
where I saw,
774
00:17:59.949 --> 00:18:01.709
I thought it was 95% and it was,
775
00:18:01.819 --> 00:18:02.030
you know,
776
00:18:02.189 --> 00:18:04.510
I was buying it at 90% and thinking I got great value.
777
00:18:04.619 --> 00:18:04.709
Well,
778
00:18:04.790 --> 00:18:05.000
now,
779
00:18:05.109 --> 00:18:06.219
maybe I think it's 90%,
780
00:18:06.589 --> 00:18:08.390
and there that value is no longer there,
781
00:18:08.550 --> 00:18:10.510
maybe I shouldn't have as big a position.
782
00:18:10.989 --> 00:18:11.540
Um,
783
00:18:11.800 --> 00:18:13.599
hedging your life is another part of this,
784
00:18:13.680 --> 00:18:14.239
and it's,
785
00:18:14.439 --> 00:18:14.839
you know,
786
00:18:15.280 --> 00:18:17.069
sometimes we'll call it an emotional hedge.
787
00:18:17.160 --> 00:18:18.839
I don't like that term because it acts like,
788
00:18:19.069 --> 00:18:19.079
uh,
789
00:18:19.160 --> 00:18:19.520
you know,
790
00:18:19.599 --> 00:18:20.000
uh,
791
00:18:20.239 --> 00:18:20.910
it's not real.
792
00:18:21.030 --> 00:18:21.119
I mean,
793
00:18:21.199 --> 00:18:21.430
it's like,
794
00:18:21.469 --> 00:18:21.800
oh gosh,
795
00:18:21.880 --> 00:18:22.280
you're just,
796
00:18:22.400 --> 00:18:22.560
your,
797
00:18:22.640 --> 00:18:23.660
your feelings.
798
00:18:24.199 --> 00:18:24.680
It's not that,
799
00:18:24.800 --> 00:18:24.880
right,
800
00:18:25.280 --> 00:18:26.079
especially with politics,
801
00:18:26.140 --> 00:18:28.020
it's not like that because these things actually affect you.
802
00:18:28.589 --> 00:18:29.819
If there is a Democratic Senate,
803
00:18:29.910 --> 00:18:33.449
I'm gonna have different tax rates potentially than if it's a Republican Senate.
804
00:18:33.699 --> 00:18:33.910
Um,
805
00:18:34.020 --> 00:18:35.349
it's gonna be different regulation changes.
806
00:18:35.430 --> 00:18:37.469
There's gonna be different policies that I care and don't care about.
807
00:18:37.540 --> 00:18:38.790
It's gonna affect my life in some way.
808
00:18:38.869 --> 00:18:39.770
That's why we care about
809
00:18:39.910 --> 00:18:40.739
politics so much.
810
00:18:40.869 --> 00:18:41.890
It's not because we care,
811
00:18:41.989 --> 00:18:43.380
we care about it like the sports,
812
00:18:43.750 --> 00:18:43.900
uh,
813
00:18:43.949 --> 00:18:44.469
that we watch.
814
00:18:44.589 --> 00:18:44.709
I mean,
815
00:18:44.790 --> 00:18:44.949
I,
816
00:18:45.099 --> 00:18:45.150
you know,
817
00:18:45.229 --> 00:18:45.939
as an Eagles fan,
818
00:18:45.989 --> 00:18:47.760
I care about that for God knows what reason.
819
00:18:47.829 --> 00:18:48.069
I,
820
00:18:48.079 --> 00:18:48.310
I,
821
00:18:48.949 --> 00:18:49.430
I don't know.
822
00:18:49.560 --> 00:18:51.130
Maybe that's the first question I'm gonna ask
823
00:18:51.510 --> 00:18:51.859
in heaven.
824
00:18:51.949 --> 00:18:52.229
When I,
825
00:18:52.310 --> 00:18:52.869
where I'm getting,
826
00:18:52.949 --> 00:18:53.530
by the way.
827
00:18:54.599 --> 00:18:54.969
Um,
828
00:18:55.050 --> 00:18:56.109
just so you know,
829
00:18:56.410 --> 00:18:56.650
um,
830
00:18:56.810 --> 00:18:56.959
but,
831
00:18:57.010 --> 00:18:57.160
uh,
832
00:18:57.199 --> 00:18:57.689
when I get up there,
833
00:18:57.729 --> 00:18:57.979
I'm like,
834
00:18:58.050 --> 00:18:58.209
hey,
835
00:18:58.329 --> 00:18:58.530
you know,
836
00:18:58.770 --> 00:18:59.130
by the way,
837
00:18:59.239 --> 00:19:00.369
how did I become an Eagles fan?
838
00:19:00.569 --> 00:19:01.969
I would love to know the answer to that,
839
00:19:02.349 --> 00:19:03.719
cause there's been some good times,
840
00:19:03.800 --> 00:19:05.209
but also some torturous times.
841
00:19:05.520 --> 00:19:05.869
Um,
842
00:19:06.010 --> 00:19:09.550
so it's not about necessarily just like hedging your emotions or your feelings.
843
00:19:09.849 --> 00:19:10.130
Um,
844
00:19:10.219 --> 00:19:10.449
it's,
845
00:19:10.520 --> 00:19:11.189
it's about
846
00:19:11.770 --> 00:19:12.750
understanding the world around you.
847
00:19:12.930 --> 00:19:13.290
And of course,
848
00:19:13.369 --> 00:19:13.689
if you,
849
00:19:13.890 --> 00:19:14.680
this is a different thing,
850
00:19:14.689 --> 00:19:15.729
and we'll get into this a little bit later,
851
00:19:15.770 --> 00:19:16.930
but I feel like you're a small business,
852
00:19:17.010 --> 00:19:17.479
you might have,
853
00:19:17.810 --> 00:19:17.930
you know,
854
00:19:17.969 --> 00:19:18.160
if you're,
855
00:19:18.209 --> 00:19:19.400
if you're an oil company,
856
00:19:19.650 --> 00:19:19.920
like
857
00:19:20.030 --> 00:19:22.010
100% you should be hedging your life here.
858
00:19:22.449 --> 00:19:22.800
Right?
859
00:19:23.250 --> 00:19:23.849
Because if,
860
00:19:23.930 --> 00:19:24.170
uh,
861
00:19:24.209 --> 00:19:25.050
the Democrats win,
862
00:19:25.140 --> 00:19:25.369
uh,
863
00:19:25.489 --> 00:19:26.930
there could be regulations,
864
00:19:27.010 --> 00:19:28.010
there could be laws passed,
865
00:19:28.119 --> 00:19:28.250
you know,
866
00:19:28.329 --> 00:19:28.650
etc.
867
00:19:28.729 --> 00:19:29.010
etc.
868
00:19:29.050 --> 00:19:29.449
etc.
869
00:19:29.890 --> 00:19:30.229
And then,
870
00:19:30.270 --> 00:19:30.810
um,
871
00:19:31.010 --> 00:19:32.250
and then you have to try to execute with,
872
00:19:32.369 --> 00:19:32.569
with,
873
00:19:32.609 --> 00:19:33.099
uh,
874
00:19:33.469 --> 00:19:33.660
uh,
875
00:19:33.770 --> 00:19:35.609
with discipline and size to conviction.
876
00:19:35.770 --> 00:19:36.140
So,
877
00:19:36.380 --> 00:19:36.760
um,
878
00:19:36.890 --> 00:19:38.310
sizing to conviction means how
879
00:19:38.650 --> 00:19:39.329
comfortable are you,
880
00:19:39.680 --> 00:19:40.670
how confident are you?
881
00:19:40.890 --> 00:19:43.130
If you're less confident than your current position states,
882
00:19:43.410 --> 00:19:44.310
you probably want to sell.
883
00:19:44.800 --> 00:19:46.780
And it's OK to take a loss in that process,
884
00:19:47.040 --> 00:19:48.560
and then executing with discipline is the hardest
885
00:19:48.560 --> 00:19:50.069
part because nobody wants to do this stuff.
886
00:19:50.400 --> 00:19:52.709
Nobody wants to go through that whole process and certainly on the other side,
887
00:19:52.800 --> 00:19:53.189
come out and say,
888
00:19:53.280 --> 00:19:53.439
gosh,
889
00:19:53.530 --> 00:19:54.239
what I did was wrong.
890
00:19:54.319 --> 00:19:55.630
I need to lose some money right now.
891
00:19:55.839 --> 00:19:56.680
That sucks,
892
00:19:57.119 --> 00:19:57.959
cause you know,
893
00:19:58.319 --> 00:20:00.599
there's a good chance that you hold on and by the end of the day,
894
00:20:00.719 --> 00:20:02.500
you actually wound up winning those positions.
895
00:20:02.719 --> 00:20:03.599
It's very possible.
896
00:20:04.239 --> 00:20:04.560
Um,
897
00:20:04.650 --> 00:20:04.989
so,
898
00:20:05.180 --> 00:20:09.319
let me give you a few different examples of where I landed on this stuff.
899
00:20:10.280 --> 00:20:10.479
I,
900
00:20:10.560 --> 00:20:10.880
I,
901
00:20:10.979 --> 00:20:11.859
I navigated through,
902
00:20:12.359 --> 00:20:13.000
there's more than this,
903
00:20:13.079 --> 00:20:14.260
but I'm gonna give you some highlights.
904
00:20:14.880 --> 00:20:15.000
My,
905
00:20:15.060 --> 00:20:16.349
of my biggest positions,
906
00:20:16.400 --> 00:20:17.030
I had,
907
00:20:17.040 --> 00:20:17.459
uh,
908
00:20:18.979 --> 00:20:20.699
Some positions that I'm totally fine with,
909
00:20:20.849 --> 00:20:21.290
still love,
910
00:20:21.449 --> 00:20:21.930
totally fine with.
911
00:20:21.979 --> 00:20:22.310
Let me give you a,
912
00:20:22.420 --> 00:20:23.020
it's a big list.
913
00:20:23.089 --> 00:20:23.400
Uh,
914
00:20:23.979 --> 00:20:24.900
Moody in Florida,
915
00:20:25.050 --> 00:20:25.800
Klobuchar,
916
00:20:25.859 --> 00:20:26.020
uh,
917
00:20:26.250 --> 00:20:27.099
Minnesota governor,
918
00:20:27.339 --> 00:20:27.699
Hochel,
919
00:20:27.859 --> 00:20:28.609
New York governor,
920
00:20:28.900 --> 00:20:29.699
not worried about that one.
921
00:20:29.819 --> 00:20:30.859
Cotton in the Senate,
922
00:20:30.939 --> 00:20:31.130
uh,
923
00:20:31.209 --> 00:20:32.020
in Arkansas,
924
00:20:32.050 --> 00:20:32.660
still fine with that.
925
00:20:32.750 --> 00:20:33.209
Rounds,
926
00:20:33.339 --> 00:20:33.900
South Dakota,
927
00:20:33.979 --> 00:20:34.420
fine with that.
928
00:20:34.569 --> 00:20:35.810
Letlow in Louisiana,
929
00:20:36.099 --> 00:20:37.260
Almay in Montana,
930
00:20:37.339 --> 00:20:38.119
fine with all those,
931
00:20:38.819 --> 00:20:38.959
uh,
932
00:20:39.060 --> 00:20:40.130
Ossoff in Georgia,
933
00:20:40.219 --> 00:20:41.010
Cooper in,
934
00:20:41.130 --> 00:20:41.369
uh,
935
00:20:41.540 --> 00:20:42.380
North Carolina.
936
00:20:42.989 --> 00:20:44.489
Donald's is an interesting one
937
00:20:44.750 --> 00:20:46.589
because I kind of wavered on that one a little bit,
938
00:20:47.310 --> 00:20:48.939
but I kept that in the one that I love.
939
00:20:48.989 --> 00:20:50.829
I really like the value of that one still.
940
00:20:51.189 --> 00:20:52.189
Pappas in North,
941
00:20:52.310 --> 00:20:52.640
uh,
942
00:20:52.979 --> 00:20:53.310
excuse me,
943
00:20:53.420 --> 00:20:53.670
um,
944
00:20:53.829 --> 00:20:54.489
New Hampshire,
945
00:20:54.780 --> 00:20:55.069
um,
946
00:20:55.310 --> 00:20:55.969
Risch in,
947
00:20:55.989 --> 00:20:56.219
uh,
948
00:20:56.349 --> 00:20:56.869
Idaho.
949
00:20:56.989 --> 00:20:57.869
I'm still fine with that one,
950
00:20:57.910 --> 00:20:59.219
even though some weird polling on that race,
951
00:20:59.270 --> 00:21:00.209
I'm still pretty fine with that.
952
00:21:00.380 --> 00:21:01.930
And Democratic control of the House.
953
00:21:02.469 --> 00:21:02.589
Like,
954
00:21:02.630 --> 00:21:03.050
I don't
955
00:21:03.369 --> 00:21:05.030
love the outcomes of those elections in,
956
00:21:05.109 --> 00:21:06.030
in many of those cases,
957
00:21:06.109 --> 00:21:08.339
but I do feel pretty confident in those positions,
958
00:21:08.670 --> 00:21:09.150
not gonna change,
959
00:21:09.239 --> 00:21:10.410
maybe even would grow some of them.
960
00:21:10.829 --> 00:21:11.849
Positions I like,
961
00:21:12.189 --> 00:21:14.219
these are positions I have that are in my top 20
962
00:21:14.430 --> 00:21:14.780
where I was like,
963
00:21:14.829 --> 00:21:15.310
you know what,
964
00:21:15.430 --> 00:21:16.609
I'm not going to change them.
965
00:21:16.829 --> 00:21:18.250
I don't feel scared about them.
966
00:21:18.670 --> 00:21:18.890
But,
967
00:21:19.020 --> 00:21:19.150
you know,
968
00:21:19.229 --> 00:21:21.109
I don't love them as much as some of those other positions.
969
00:21:21.160 --> 00:21:22.810
That would be Maisy in Oklahoma,
970
00:21:23.079 --> 00:21:23.219
uh,
971
00:21:23.349 --> 00:21:24.030
Pille in,
972
00:21:24.079 --> 00:21:24.420
uh,
973
00:21:24.699 --> 00:21:25.510
in Nebraska,
974
00:21:25.709 --> 00:21:26.869
and Flanagan
975
00:21:27.119 --> 00:21:27.469
in,
976
00:21:27.569 --> 00:21:28.089
Minnesota,
977
00:21:28.130 --> 00:21:29.170
that's been a weird race.
978
00:21:29.290 --> 00:21:30.250
Tafoy's done very well,
979
00:21:30.449 --> 00:21:30.930
very close.
980
00:21:31.130 --> 00:21:32.209
Flanagan's pretty bad,
981
00:21:32.329 --> 00:21:32.489
uh,
982
00:21:32.569 --> 00:21:33.219
as a candidate,
983
00:21:33.290 --> 00:21:33.650
I think.
984
00:21:33.810 --> 00:21:36.530
Tafoy is much better as an aesthetic candidate
985
00:21:36.729 --> 00:21:38.530
and with her campaign abilities,
986
00:21:38.810 --> 00:21:40.930
but of course it's a blue leaning state and it's gonna be tough,
987
00:21:40.979 --> 00:21:42.280
difficult for her to win there.
988
00:21:42.569 --> 00:21:42.969
But I still,
989
00:21:43.050 --> 00:21:43.170
I,
990
00:21:43.250 --> 00:21:44.369
I like those positions.
991
00:21:44.729 --> 00:21:45.729
The positions I'm iffy on,
992
00:21:45.810 --> 00:21:46.609
let me give you a couple of them.
993
00:21:46.770 --> 00:21:47.250
Kottech
994
00:21:47.530 --> 00:21:48.150
in Oregon.
995
00:21:50.130 --> 00:21:51.189
Hyde Smith
996
00:21:51.650 --> 00:21:52.589
in Mississippi,
997
00:21:52.890 --> 00:21:53.790
Hinson in,
998
00:21:53.910 --> 00:21:54.040
uh,
999
00:21:54.109 --> 00:21:54.689
Iowa,
1000
00:21:54.849 --> 00:21:56.189
and Abbott in Texas.
1001
00:21:56.449 --> 00:21:57.130
All four of them,
1002
00:21:57.250 --> 00:21:57.579
I'm just,
1003
00:21:57.849 --> 00:21:59.329
I'm nervous about a little bit.
1004
00:21:59.729 --> 00:22:00.430
Kottek
1005
00:22:00.969 --> 00:22:01.969
is in Oregon.
1006
00:22:02.050 --> 00:22:03.069
She's a Democrat.
1007
00:22:03.170 --> 00:22:04.079
This should be easy.
1008
00:22:04.329 --> 00:22:04.880
Polling very,
1009
00:22:04.969 --> 00:22:05.640
very close.
1010
00:22:05.810 --> 00:22:07.489
I'm more nervous about it than I should be.
1011
00:22:07.770 --> 00:22:08.630
Hyde Smith
1012
00:22:08.770 --> 00:22:09.530
in Mississippi.
1013
00:22:09.939 --> 00:22:14.290
There's no real polling that I believe that shows that race as being close.
1014
00:22:14.829 --> 00:22:16.500
She is not the greatest candidate though,
1015
00:22:16.589 --> 00:22:18.349
and she makes me nervous in the similar
1016
00:22:18.349 --> 00:22:20.910
ways that Darlene Graham Nordone makes me nervous.
1017
00:22:20.989 --> 00:22:22.630
I have a small position on her that I
1018
00:22:22.630 --> 00:22:24.170
didn't bother changing cause it was pretty small,
1019
00:22:24.630 --> 00:22:24.790
um,
1020
00:22:24.869 --> 00:22:25.170
but,
1021
00:22:25.359 --> 00:22:26.140
uh,
1022
00:22:26.189 --> 00:22:26.420
yeah,
1023
00:22:26.709 --> 00:22:26.910
uh,
1024
00:22:27.030 --> 00:22:27.640
Hyde Smith.
1025
00:22:27.719 --> 00:22:28.109
Uh,
1026
00:22:28.229 --> 00:22:28.910
then there was Henson.
1027
00:22:29.244 --> 00:22:29.525
Henson,
1028
00:22:29.604 --> 00:22:30.035
I really like.
1029
00:22:30.084 --> 00:22:31.584
I think she's a good candidate.
1030
00:22:31.755 --> 00:22:33.244
I think she's done a good job in this race.
1031
00:22:33.324 --> 00:22:33.805
She just has,
1032
00:22:34.084 --> 00:22:35.224
she is very high.
1033
00:22:35.645 --> 00:22:37.994
Iowa is very high on the Republican freak out index.
1034
00:22:38.194 --> 00:22:38.645
The state,
1035
00:22:38.724 --> 00:22:39.244
on the,
1036
00:22:39.405 --> 00:22:40.564
the parts of that are,
1037
00:22:40.604 --> 00:22:41.665
are dangerous there
1038
00:22:41.964 --> 00:22:42.125
from,
1039
00:22:42.204 --> 00:22:43.305
from her perspective,
1040
00:22:43.645 --> 00:22:45.005
and I have a big position in that one.
1041
00:22:45.204 --> 00:22:46.364
And then Abbott in Texas is,
1042
00:22:46.435 --> 00:22:46.724
is another,
1043
00:22:46.795 --> 00:22:47.844
is the 4th 1 on that list,
1044
00:22:47.885 --> 00:22:48.265
which
1045
00:22:48.765 --> 00:22:50.025
it's closer than I want it to be.
1046
00:22:50.430 --> 00:22:50.660
I,
1047
00:22:50.739 --> 00:22:52.400
I should love this in the 70s.
1048
00:22:52.619 --> 00:22:52.849
Um,
1049
00:22:52.900 --> 00:22:54.839
I should be buying more of it in the 70s.
1050
00:22:55.140 --> 00:22:55.260
I,
1051
00:22:55.300 --> 00:22:57.339
I'm not doing that necessarily because,
1052
00:22:57.660 --> 00:22:58.390
number one,
1053
00:22:58.619 --> 00:23:00.560
I'm more concerned about it than I should be.
1054
00:23:01.099 --> 00:23:01.260
Uh,
1055
00:23:01.300 --> 00:23:02.489
I still think he's going to win.
1056
00:23:02.670 --> 00:23:02.939
By the way,
1057
00:23:02.979 --> 00:23:04.339
I think all of those are gonna win.
1058
00:23:05.380 --> 00:23:05.770
Kottek,
1059
00:23:05.869 --> 00:23:06.300
Hyde Smith,
1060
00:23:06.420 --> 00:23:06.699
Hinson,
1061
00:23:06.739 --> 00:23:07.119
and Abbott,
1062
00:23:07.180 --> 00:23:08.380
I still am confident they're gonna win.
1063
00:23:08.459 --> 00:23:08.859
The question is,
1064
00:23:09.089 --> 00:23:10.479
should I have that big of a position,
1065
00:23:10.920 --> 00:23:11.140
um,
1066
00:23:11.180 --> 00:23:11.689
or not?
1067
00:23:11.849 --> 00:23:12.400
And then
1068
00:23:12.939 --> 00:23:13.339
with Abbott,
1069
00:23:13.410 --> 00:23:16.160
the other part of that is there is a major hedger life,
1070
00:23:16.459 --> 00:23:16.650
uh,
1071
00:23:16.739 --> 00:23:17.300
part of that.
1072
00:23:17.579 --> 00:23:20.380
It's one thing for Tallarico to be senator here from Texas.
1073
00:23:20.459 --> 00:23:22.530
That would suck because he's one bad vote in the Senate,
1074
00:23:22.540 --> 00:23:23.160
in my opinion.
1075
00:23:23.819 --> 00:23:23.969
Uh,
1076
00:23:24.020 --> 00:23:27.170
Abbott losing here would actually affect my life negatively,
1077
00:23:27.260 --> 00:23:27.420
uh,
1078
00:23:27.660 --> 00:23:28.020
because,
1079
00:23:28.060 --> 00:23:29.239
uh,
1080
00:23:29.420 --> 00:23:29.760
you know,
1081
00:23:30.099 --> 00:23:32.540
governors are gonna be more important to your day to day life than senators are.
1082
00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:33.280
Um,
1083
00:23:33.479 --> 00:23:33.869
that being said,
1084
00:23:33.920 --> 00:23:34.959
I also did look at the,
1085
00:23:35.020 --> 00:23:35.380
uh,
1086
00:23:35.400 --> 00:23:36.510
Paxton race as well.
1087
00:23:36.599 --> 00:23:38.619
I did trim that position pretty significantly.
1088
00:23:38.859 --> 00:23:38.939
Now,
1089
00:23:39.000 --> 00:23:39.939
I didn't have a big one.
1090
00:23:40.280 --> 00:23:40.400
I,
1091
00:23:40.479 --> 00:23:42.579
I think that's a 50/50 race at this point.
1092
00:23:42.800 --> 00:23:43.640
I think you could say,
1093
00:23:43.719 --> 00:23:45.819
you could look at and see some value potentially,
1094
00:23:46.160 --> 00:23:46.479
um,
1095
00:23:46.589 --> 00:23:47.000
and say,
1096
00:23:47.119 --> 00:23:47.239
hey,
1097
00:23:47.319 --> 00:23:48.119
he's at 38.
1098
00:23:48.229 --> 00:23:49.150
If it's a 50/50 race,
1099
00:23:49.189 --> 00:23:50.500
there's actually value there.
1100
00:23:50.709 --> 00:23:51.339
It's true.
1101
00:23:51.599 --> 00:23:52.119
I just don't,
1102
00:23:52.219 --> 00:23:52.349
uh,
1103
00:23:52.430 --> 00:23:52.839
it's another,
1104
00:23:52.920 --> 00:23:53.959
it's partially hedge your life,
1105
00:23:54.119 --> 00:23:54.430
partially,
1106
00:23:54.479 --> 00:23:56.079
I'm just not confident he's going to win.
1107
00:23:56.359 --> 00:23:56.760
Um,
1108
00:23:56.880 --> 00:23:57.030
uh,
1109
00:23:57.160 --> 00:23:57.550
the,
1110
00:23:57.640 --> 00:23:59.839
the millions and millions of dollars that have poured into the
1111
00:23:59.839 --> 00:24:01.939
state in these ads have not really moved it that much.
1112
00:24:02.280 --> 00:24:02.839
That being said,
1113
00:24:02.949 --> 00:24:04.839
even left-wing polling estimates,
1114
00:24:05.040 --> 00:24:05.280
um,
1115
00:24:05.430 --> 00:24:05.589
you know,
1116
00:24:05.680 --> 00:24:06.500
when you're talking about,
1117
00:24:06.520 --> 00:24:06.589
uh,
1118
00:24:06.599 --> 00:24:09.099
polling averages by more left-leaning averages,
1119
00:24:09.160 --> 00:24:10.329
and there's a wide swath,
1120
00:24:10.400 --> 00:24:11.739
that's why we have the PMC,
1121
00:24:12.069 --> 00:24:12.229
uh,
1122
00:24:12.359 --> 00:24:13.920
wide swath of these suggestions,
1123
00:24:14.239 --> 00:24:16.310
still see that as like a 2.5 point race.
1124
00:24:16.560 --> 00:24:16.920
So very,
1125
00:24:17.000 --> 00:24:17.359
very close.
1126
00:24:17.479 --> 00:24:18.819
I still think Paxton has,
1127
00:24:19.050 --> 00:24:19.199
uh,
1128
00:24:19.280 --> 00:24:21.040
at least a 50% chance to win.
1129
00:24:21.479 --> 00:24:22.280
Maybe a slight favorite,
1130
00:24:22.400 --> 00:24:23.300
maybe a slight underdog,
1131
00:24:23.359 --> 00:24:24.329
but we're in that realm.
1132
00:24:24.739 --> 00:24:25.130
Um,
1133
00:24:25.390 --> 00:24:27.300
but there's no real reason for me to have a big race there.
1134
00:24:27.319 --> 00:24:27.420
I,
1135
00:24:27.469 --> 00:24:27.640
I,
1136
00:24:27.750 --> 00:24:28.020
I,
1137
00:24:28.400 --> 00:24:30.020
because when you sell these positions,
1138
00:24:30.069 --> 00:24:32.430
what you can do is deploy them into places where you feel better.
1139
00:24:32.589 --> 00:24:34.339
I had a long list of positions I really,
1140
00:24:34.390 --> 00:24:34.969
really like.
1141
00:24:35.180 --> 00:24:35.410
Um,
1142
00:24:35.550 --> 00:24:36.530
most of the positions,
1143
00:24:36.589 --> 00:24:36.699
uh,
1144
00:24:36.709 --> 00:24:38.829
that I have are up from when we took them,
1145
00:24:38.979 --> 00:24:39.969
so that's positive.
1146
00:24:40.189 --> 00:24:40.390
Um,
1147
00:24:40.469 --> 00:24:40.930
but,
1148
00:24:41.239 --> 00:24:41.819
uh,
1149
00:24:41.949 --> 00:24:42.589
there is a,
1150
00:24:42.750 --> 00:24:43.030
of course,
1151
00:24:43.170 --> 00:24:43.180
a,
1152
00:24:43.310 --> 00:24:44.550
a line there that you have to watch.
1153
00:24:44.750 --> 00:24:45.130
So,
1154
00:24:45.430 --> 00:24:45.969
I'm still,
1155
00:24:46.109 --> 00:24:46.349
uh,
1156
00:24:46.430 --> 00:24:47.170
I considered
1157
00:24:47.280 --> 00:24:47.290
the,
1158
00:24:47.349 --> 00:24:47.469
the,
1159
00:24:47.510 --> 00:24:49.650
the few that I kind of considered there,
1160
00:24:49.989 --> 00:24:50.369
Donald's,
1161
00:24:50.390 --> 00:24:51.270
I was a little worried about.
1162
00:24:51.339 --> 00:24:52.469
I think I'm still bullish there.
1163
00:24:52.550 --> 00:24:52.979
I'm gonna stay,
1164
00:24:53.069 --> 00:24:53.770
I like Florida.
1165
00:24:54.199 --> 00:24:54.510
Um,
1166
00:24:54.829 --> 00:24:55.369
because
1167
00:24:55.510 --> 00:24:56.589
a lot of the underlying,
1168
00:24:56.670 --> 00:24:56.880
um,
1169
00:24:56.969 --> 00:24:57.869
mechanisms there,
1170
00:24:57.989 --> 00:24:58.150
the,
1171
00:24:58.270 --> 00:24:59.989
the big growth of Republicans there,
1172
00:25:00.349 --> 00:25:00.619
the,
1173
00:25:00.670 --> 00:25:01.020
um,
1174
00:25:01.229 --> 00:25:03.750
the lack of the huge effect of some of these negative,
1175
00:25:03.790 --> 00:25:04.290
um,
1176
00:25:04.430 --> 00:25:04.910
uh,
1177
00:25:05.040 --> 00:25:06.650
polls on Republican votes.
1178
00:25:06.959 --> 00:25:07.150
Uh,
1179
00:25:07.270 --> 00:25:07.790
so I like that one.
1180
00:25:07.869 --> 00:25:10.219
There's some still some value there because I think he's in the 70s,
1181
00:25:10.510 --> 00:25:10.579
uh,
1182
00:25:10.670 --> 00:25:11.550
so that's an interesting one,
1183
00:25:11.660 --> 00:25:11.949
but,
1184
00:25:12.199 --> 00:25:12.469
um,
1185
00:25:12.550 --> 00:25:13.270
and I added some,
1186
00:25:13.380 --> 00:25:13.469
I,
1187
00:25:13.579 --> 00:25:15.280
so I kind of trimmed a little bit on Kottek,
1188
00:25:15.790 --> 00:25:17.160
trimmed a little bit on.
1189
00:25:17.849 --> 00:25:18.410
Uh,
1190
00:25:18.520 --> 00:25:19.329
Hyde Smith
1191
00:25:19.569 --> 00:25:21.400
trimmed a little on hints and very little,
1192
00:25:21.709 --> 00:25:22.489
6%,
1193
00:25:22.530 --> 00:25:22.930
I think,
1194
00:25:23.170 --> 00:25:23.650
on that one.
1195
00:25:23.810 --> 00:25:24.979
So you can do that or not.
1196
00:25:25.209 --> 00:25:25.530
Abbott,
1197
00:25:25.609 --> 00:25:27.510
I did a little bit kind of with the hedge your life,
1198
00:25:27.569 --> 00:25:27.810
uh,
1199
00:25:27.969 --> 00:25:29.160
thoughts behind that.
1200
00:25:29.609 --> 00:25:30.040
Paxton,
1201
00:25:30.060 --> 00:25:30.359
and then,
1202
00:25:30.410 --> 00:25:30.800
uh,
1203
00:25:30.930 --> 00:25:32.160
I added some Pappas.
1204
00:25:32.250 --> 00:25:35.000
I added some red wave no and some blue wave yes,
1205
00:25:35.449 --> 00:25:36.150
which are
1206
00:25:36.329 --> 00:25:37.150
kind of measures
1207
00:25:37.290 --> 00:25:37.410
like,
1208
00:25:37.489 --> 00:25:37.599
you know,
1209
00:25:37.609 --> 00:25:40.849
red wave yes is like 55 Senate seats for the,
1210
00:25:40.930 --> 00:25:41.170
uh,
1211
00:25:41.569 --> 00:25:41.849
Republicans.
1212
00:25:41.890 --> 00:25:42.290
I just don't,
1213
00:25:42.369 --> 00:25:43.229
I don't think that's happening.
1214
00:25:43.729 --> 00:25:43.959
Um,
1215
00:25:44.050 --> 00:25:44.890
so that's where I am.
1216
00:25:44.969 --> 00:25:46.670
I am in DEFCON level 3 though.
1217
00:25:46.890 --> 00:25:47.910
That's a calm
1218
00:25:48.079 --> 00:25:48.760
position
1219
00:25:48.969 --> 00:25:49.630
to look ahead,
1220
00:25:50.050 --> 00:25:51.109
to rework
1221
00:25:51.530 --> 00:25:52.109
certain
1222
00:25:52.890 --> 00:25:54.170
contracts that you're worried about.
1223
00:25:54.599 --> 00:25:56.770
But it's OK to be focused on
1224
00:25:56.930 --> 00:25:57.709
the good ones
1225
00:25:57.890 --> 00:25:59.969
and to take the money that you might like,
1226
00:26:00.000 --> 00:26:00.239
uh,
1227
00:26:00.250 --> 00:26:00.770
take from the,
1228
00:26:00.810 --> 00:26:01.040
uh,
1229
00:26:01.050 --> 00:26:01.530
the losses.
1230
00:26:01.569 --> 00:26:02.479
You might take a little bit of a loss,
1231
00:26:02.489 --> 00:26:03.630
but take that currency out,
1232
00:26:03.890 --> 00:26:05.479
move it into markets where you're more confident.
1233
00:26:05.729 --> 00:26:06.060
So,
1234
00:26:06.369 --> 00:26:06.530
uh,
1235
00:26:06.650 --> 00:26:07.250
from the election,
1236
00:26:07.369 --> 00:26:08.510
so just to run through those again,
1237
00:26:08.569 --> 00:26:09.010
you got the,
1238
00:26:09.089 --> 00:26:09.790
uh,
1239
00:26:09.800 --> 00:26:10.119
uh,
1240
00:26:10.130 --> 00:26:12.489
if you're just electoral for Republicans,
1241
00:26:12.530 --> 00:26:13.810
I would be on the level 2,
1242
00:26:14.199 --> 00:26:14.949
DEFCON 2.
1243
00:26:15.569 --> 00:26:16.520
Prediction market positions,
1244
00:26:16.609 --> 00:26:17.420
DEFCON 3.
1245
00:26:17.819 --> 00:26:19.020
I think most of them are gonna be very,
1246
00:26:19.099 --> 00:26:19.489
very valid.
1247
00:26:19.530 --> 00:26:21.650
I'd say about 95% of the stuff that I looked at,
1248
00:26:21.699 --> 00:26:22.849
I was totally fine with.
1249
00:26:23.060 --> 00:26:24.119
A few I'm trimming
1250
00:26:24.260 --> 00:26:26.239
and moving cause I wanna take advantage of other,
1251
00:26:26.250 --> 00:26:26.410
uh,
1252
00:26:26.420 --> 00:26:27.000
markets.
1253
00:26:27.339 --> 00:26:27.640
And then,
1254
00:26:27.699 --> 00:26:28.020
of course,
1255
00:26:28.099 --> 00:26:28.979
the final one is,
1256
00:26:29.020 --> 00:26:29.250
uh,
1257
00:26:29.260 --> 00:26:30.609
if you are a Philadelphia Eagles fan,
1258
00:26:30.650 --> 00:26:31.829
that would be DEFCON 1.
1259
00:26:32.260 --> 00:26:32.719
it is,
1260
00:26:33.219 --> 00:26:33.859
we are,
1261
00:26:35.099 --> 00:26:36.000
we are beyond,
1262
00:26:36.380 --> 00:26:36.819
I would say,
1263
00:26:36.890 --> 00:26:38.439
is there a DEFCON 0?
1264
00:26:38.619 --> 00:26:39.979
If there's a DEFCON 0,
1265
00:26:40.219 --> 00:26:42.239
the Philadelphia Eagles are eating that one up
1266
00:26:42.420 --> 00:26:42.849
right now.
1267
00:26:43.020 --> 00:26:43.319
So,
1268
00:26:43.380 --> 00:26:43.619
we can,
1269
00:26:43.689 --> 00:26:43.859
uh,
1270
00:26:43.930 --> 00:26:44.579
we can work about,
1271
00:26:44.660 --> 00:26:45.680
we can work on that later.
1272
00:26:45.979 --> 00:26:46.300
OK.
1273
00:26:46.760 --> 00:26:47.750
It's a lot of stuff to take.
1274
00:26:47.839 --> 00:26:47.920
I,
1275
00:26:48.010 --> 00:26:49.510
I know I hit you with a lot of information there,
1276
00:26:49.530 --> 00:26:50.239
but it's a big day.
1277
00:26:50.280 --> 00:26:51.180
It's panic day.
1278
00:26:51.369 --> 00:26:53.739
So I wanted to make sure you understood my process because look,
1279
00:26:54.000 --> 00:26:54.880
I'm going to win some,
1280
00:26:54.959 --> 00:26:55.630
I'm going to lose some.
1281
00:26:55.660 --> 00:26:57.640
I wanna make sure you understand when I make a,
1282
00:26:57.719 --> 00:26:57.729
uh,
1283
00:26:57.739 --> 00:26:58.540
uh,
1284
00:26:58.550 --> 00:26:58.560
uh,
1285
00:26:58.800 --> 00:26:58.930
uh,
1286
00:26:58.939 --> 00:26:59.160
um,
1287
00:26:59.199 --> 00:27:00.180
a new pricing,
1288
00:27:00.280 --> 00:27:00.359
uh,
1289
00:27:00.400 --> 00:27:01.689
if I take a new pricing on something,
1290
00:27:01.790 --> 00:27:02.760
if I take a new size on something,
1291
00:27:02.839 --> 00:27:04.000
I want you to understand it
1292
00:27:04.199 --> 00:27:04.920
so you don't think that like,
1293
00:27:04.959 --> 00:27:05.079
oh,
1294
00:27:05.150 --> 00:27:05.260
well,
1295
00:27:05.280 --> 00:27:08.140
you said 3 months ago that this was a perfect position and then
1296
00:27:08.400 --> 00:27:08.510
you,
1297
00:27:08.599 --> 00:27:08.709
you,
1298
00:27:08.800 --> 00:27:09.550
you bailed out on it.
1299
00:27:09.619 --> 00:27:09.979
I,
1300
00:27:10.119 --> 00:27:10.550
I,
1301
00:27:10.760 --> 00:27:11.479
I changed these things.
1302
00:27:11.560 --> 00:27:12.239
I do change them.
1303
00:27:12.709 --> 00:27:12.979
This is,
1304
00:27:12.989 --> 00:27:13.219
of course,
1305
00:27:13.229 --> 00:27:13.949
an entertainment show.
1306
00:27:13.989 --> 00:27:14.829
It's an information show.
1307
00:27:14.869 --> 00:27:15.869
It's not investment advice,
1308
00:27:15.949 --> 00:27:17.469
so don't be leaning on me for all that stuff.
1309
00:27:17.630 --> 00:27:20.569
If you want every single thing that I have that's updated every single week,
1310
00:27:20.849 --> 00:27:22.489
you can go to predictableShow.com
1311
00:27:22.750 --> 00:27:23.589
and see it all laid out.
1312
00:27:23.670 --> 00:27:25.030
There's over 300 positions there.
1313
00:27:25.069 --> 00:27:25.900
You can check them out,
1314
00:27:26.109 --> 00:27:27.790
see where I am on every single election,
1315
00:27:28.020 --> 00:27:28.219
uh,
1316
00:27:28.300 --> 00:27:29.349
and go from there.
1317
00:27:29.459 --> 00:27:29.670
OK,
1318
00:27:29.790 --> 00:27:31.650
that's what we're gonna have time for for this particular segment.
1319
00:27:31.709 --> 00:27:32.900
I wanna come back on the other side
1320
00:27:33.109 --> 00:27:33.739
with another,
1321
00:27:33.750 --> 00:27:34.449
uh,
1322
00:27:34.459 --> 00:27:35.219
situation that happened,
1323
00:27:35.229 --> 00:27:35.500
uh,
1324
00:27:35.510 --> 00:27:36.290
over the weekend
1325
00:27:37.069 --> 00:27:37.449
with,
1326
00:27:37.469 --> 00:27:37.739
uh,
1327
00:27:37.750 --> 00:27:40.150
the new White House press secretary.
1328
00:27:40.430 --> 00:27:41.829
We'll walk you through that next.
1329
00:27:53.339 --> 00:27:54.010
Prediction.
1330
00:27:54.270 --> 00:27:54.479
Yes,
1331
00:27:54.670 --> 00:27:55.189
prediction.
1332
00:27:58.010 --> 00:27:58.560
Pain.
1333
00:28:06.089 --> 00:28:06.699
Ah,
1334
00:28:06.790 --> 00:28:07.020
yes,
1335
00:28:07.099 --> 00:28:08.959
it's time for another episode,
1336
00:28:09.260 --> 00:28:10.060
the first actually,
1337
00:28:10.140 --> 00:28:11.910
of Prediction Pain.
1338
00:28:12.270 --> 00:28:15.819
And part of the promise of this particular program and company,
1339
00:28:15.939 --> 00:28:17.599
PredictableShow.com as well,
1340
00:28:18.329 --> 00:28:20.329
is that I'm not gonna just tell you about my wins.
1341
00:28:20.380 --> 00:28:22.079
I will also tell you about my losses,
1342
00:28:22.099 --> 00:28:23.719
and I will tell you about my thought process
1343
00:28:24.099 --> 00:28:24.979
behind those losses.
1344
00:28:25.099 --> 00:28:25.680
Why?
1345
00:28:26.150 --> 00:28:26.380
Um,
1346
00:28:26.540 --> 00:28:28.500
because I'm obviously a glutton for punishment,
1347
00:28:28.579 --> 00:28:29.339
but also,
1348
00:28:30.339 --> 00:28:30.800
Uh,
1349
00:28:31.060 --> 00:28:32.199
I want you to know
1350
00:28:32.739 --> 00:28:34.959
when I make the mistakes so that you can
1351
00:28:34.959 --> 00:28:36.920
potentially learn from them and not make them yourself.
1352
00:28:37.500 --> 00:28:37.660
Um,
1353
00:28:37.739 --> 00:28:37.859
now,
1354
00:28:37.939 --> 00:28:40.479
I'm happy about this particular one in one way,
1355
00:28:40.739 --> 00:28:41.729
is that we were supposed to,
1356
00:28:41.800 --> 00:28:41.849
we,
1357
00:28:41.939 --> 00:28:45.079
I was scheduled to do a segment on it all week last week,
1358
00:28:45.339 --> 00:28:45.930
and I,
1359
00:28:46.180 --> 00:28:46.420
some,
1360
00:28:46.540 --> 00:28:48.699
we just kept pushing it off because we ran out of time.
1361
00:28:48.739 --> 00:28:50.939
I was running my mouth too much and we never did the segment,
1362
00:28:51.020 --> 00:28:54.770
so I never actually told you to take this position or at least told you I was taking it,
1363
00:28:55.140 --> 00:28:55.369
cause I,
1364
00:28:55.420 --> 00:28:55.540
you know,
1365
00:28:55.729 --> 00:28:58.520
I know some people will come on and take the same positions that I take occasionally.
1366
00:29:00.479 --> 00:29:02.329
This has to do with Katie Zachariah.
1367
00:29:02.410 --> 00:29:05.949
She's out as a White House press secretary after her first week on the job.
1368
00:29:06.050 --> 00:29:06.209
Now,
1369
00:29:06.329 --> 00:29:07.250
for a long time,
1370
00:29:07.329 --> 00:29:08.400
I've known a few people who've,
1371
00:29:08.449 --> 00:29:08.729
uh,
1372
00:29:08.839 --> 00:29:09.010
you know,
1373
00:29:09.170 --> 00:29:10.010
worked in Washington,
1374
00:29:10.130 --> 00:29:11.469
worked even in the White House,
1375
00:29:11.890 --> 00:29:14.829
and I've heard them talk about measuring time,
1376
00:29:15.239 --> 00:29:15.369
uh,
1377
00:29:15.489 --> 00:29:16.030
in,
1378
00:29:16.089 --> 00:29:16.479
uh,
1379
00:29:16.569 --> 00:29:16.829
in,
1380
00:29:16.930 --> 00:29:17.530
in,
1381
00:29:17.770 --> 00:29:18.119
in,
1382
00:29:18.130 --> 00:29:18.630
uh,
1383
00:29:18.689 --> 00:29:19.329
mooches.
1384
00:29:20.060 --> 00:29:20.449
Um,
1385
00:29:20.540 --> 00:29:20.900
that is,
1386
00:29:20.949 --> 00:29:21.060
uh,
1387
00:29:21.140 --> 00:29:21.540
and when you're like,
1388
00:29:21.579 --> 00:29:21.939
what's that?
1389
00:29:22.050 --> 00:29:22.099
Well,
1390
00:29:22.219 --> 00:29:22.579
that was,
1391
00:29:22.619 --> 00:29:23.050
uh,
1392
00:29:23.180 --> 00:29:24.060
that was the mooch,
1393
00:29:24.140 --> 00:29:25.020
the guy who was the,
1394
00:29:25.180 --> 00:29:25.579
what was he,
1395
00:29:25.689 --> 00:29:27.359
the head of communications for Trump
1396
00:29:27.739 --> 00:29:29.359
for like 11 days.
1397
00:29:29.739 --> 00:29:30.300
And it was like,
1398
00:29:30.380 --> 00:29:30.619
OK,
1399
00:29:30.739 --> 00:29:30.819
well,
1400
00:29:30.979 --> 00:29:31.170
that was,
1401
00:29:31.219 --> 00:29:32.609
he only lasted 5 mooches,
1402
00:29:32.680 --> 00:29:33.040
right?
1403
00:29:33.420 --> 00:29:34.489
This was half a mooch,
1404
00:29:34.819 --> 00:29:35.819
less than half a mooch,
1405
00:29:35.939 --> 00:29:37.239
5 days on the job,
1406
00:29:37.250 --> 00:29:38.369
and Katie Zachariah
1407
00:29:38.579 --> 00:29:39.339
is let go.
1408
00:29:39.459 --> 00:29:40.339
She's transitioning.
1409
00:29:40.739 --> 00:29:40.930
Um,
1410
00:29:40.979 --> 00:29:42.380
out of the particular position.
1411
00:29:42.420 --> 00:29:43.010
And you might say,
1412
00:29:43.060 --> 00:29:43.260
well,
1413
00:29:43.420 --> 00:29:43.780
wait a minute,
1414
00:29:43.979 --> 00:29:44.400
you know,
1415
00:29:44.670 --> 00:29:44.810
look,
1416
00:29:44.859 --> 00:29:45.930
this is widely covered.
1417
00:29:46.300 --> 00:29:46.839
People had,
1418
00:29:46.900 --> 00:29:47.209
um,
1419
00:29:47.459 --> 00:29:48.439
were talking a lot
1420
00:29:48.819 --> 00:29:52.280
about whether she would last any given period of time,
1421
00:29:52.819 --> 00:29:55.699
and most people said didn't seem like she's gonna last a long time.
1422
00:29:55.900 --> 00:29:56.020
You know,
1423
00:29:56.170 --> 00:29:57.660
it's one thing you can look at this and you can say,
1424
00:29:57.709 --> 00:29:57.739
you,
1425
00:29:57.839 --> 00:29:58.579
you watch her performance,
1426
00:29:58.780 --> 00:29:59.540
everyone has a bad day.
1427
00:29:59.819 --> 00:30:00.619
Everyone can have a bad day.
1428
00:30:00.719 --> 00:30:01.579
Everyone can have a bad performance,
1429
00:30:01.660 --> 00:30:03.520
but there's something about her performance that looked
1430
00:30:04.219 --> 00:30:05.020
very uneasy.
1431
00:30:05.239 --> 00:30:05.439
You know,
1432
00:30:05.560 --> 00:30:06.520
someone who just didn't,
1433
00:30:06.719 --> 00:30:08.119
did not look prepared for the job,
1434
00:30:08.199 --> 00:30:08.800
did not look,
1435
00:30:09.079 --> 00:30:09.560
it wasn't just,
1436
00:30:09.599 --> 00:30:10.910
didn't look like normal nerves,
1437
00:30:10.959 --> 00:30:12.020
it looked like someone who
1438
00:30:12.390 --> 00:30:14.280
was a little bit out of her,
1439
00:30:14.380 --> 00:30:15.189
uh,
1440
00:30:15.199 --> 00:30:16.300
out of her depth,
1441
00:30:16.479 --> 00:30:16.630
uh,
1442
00:30:16.680 --> 00:30:17.619
when it came to that job.
1443
00:30:17.800 --> 00:30:18.439
I will say this,
1444
00:30:18.550 --> 00:30:20.099
it's a really freaking hard job,
1445
00:30:20.760 --> 00:30:21.579
really hard job.
1446
00:30:22.079 --> 00:30:23.540
And I will also say
1447
00:30:24.119 --> 00:30:25.040
that the White House,
1448
00:30:25.119 --> 00:30:25.469
um,
1449
00:30:25.560 --> 00:30:26.219
and the,
1450
00:30:26.280 --> 00:30:28.599
the people making the decisions in this particular situation
1451
00:30:28.599 --> 00:30:30.339
didn't really do her a lot of favors here.
1452
00:30:30.689 --> 00:30:30.890
You know,
1453
00:30:31.010 --> 00:30:31.079
she,
1454
00:30:31.199 --> 00:30:31.290
uh,
1455
00:30:31.410 --> 00:30:31.949
you know,
1456
00:30:32.250 --> 00:30:32.400
I,
1457
00:30:32.569 --> 00:30:32.930
I,
1458
00:30:33.130 --> 00:30:33.689
looking back at this,
1459
00:30:33.729 --> 00:30:34.280
you have to say,
1460
00:30:34.500 --> 00:30:36.099
well how was she even hired for this job?
1461
00:30:36.609 --> 00:30:38.130
How was she pulled out of,
1462
00:30:38.209 --> 00:30:38.410
I mean,
1463
00:30:38.729 --> 00:30:39.849
a lot of people wanted this job.
1464
00:30:39.959 --> 00:30:41.969
There were people who were kind of publicly advocating for it,
1465
00:30:42.170 --> 00:30:43.640
who I think would have done a very good job.
1466
00:30:43.849 --> 00:30:45.069
We have had no position
1467
00:30:45.410 --> 00:30:47.209
on Scott Jennings taking the job,
1468
00:30:47.530 --> 00:30:48.910
largely because
1469
00:30:49.369 --> 00:30:50.479
I didn't think he'd want it.
1470
00:30:50.849 --> 00:30:51.329
Scott Jennings,
1471
00:30:51.369 --> 00:30:52.040
he's on CNN,
1472
00:30:52.069 --> 00:30:52.930
he's got his own show,
1473
00:30:53.010 --> 00:30:53.959
he's got a good life.
1474
00:30:54.089 --> 00:30:55.239
This is a terrible life.
1475
00:30:55.530 --> 00:30:57.689
The life of a White House press secretary is terrible.
1476
00:30:58.180 --> 00:30:58.479
It's,
1477
00:30:58.530 --> 00:31:00.969
it's just an awful position to be put in on a day to day basis.
1478
00:31:01.010 --> 00:31:03.010
You're being screamed at and then called a liar and,
1479
00:31:03.060 --> 00:31:03.250
and,
1480
00:31:03.329 --> 00:31:03.670
and
1481
00:31:03.930 --> 00:31:05.349
tortured on a day to day basis.
1482
00:31:05.560 --> 00:31:07.030
It's a really hard job
1483
00:31:07.170 --> 00:31:09.390
that is very specific for the type of person
1484
00:31:09.650 --> 00:31:10.250
that can handle it.
1485
00:31:10.319 --> 00:31:11.760
I think Jennings would do a great job with it,
1486
00:31:11.810 --> 00:31:12.989
but I don't know why he'd take it.
1487
00:31:13.449 --> 00:31:15.670
There was a rumor he was pushing for
1488
00:31:15.849 --> 00:31:16.310
the job.
1489
00:31:16.410 --> 00:31:17.239
If that was true,
1490
00:31:17.250 --> 00:31:18.170
and he was not hired,
1491
00:31:18.369 --> 00:31:19.130
that's insanity.
1492
00:31:19.609 --> 00:31:20.489
Jennings would be really,
1493
00:31:20.609 --> 00:31:21.650
really good at that job,
1494
00:31:21.930 --> 00:31:22.089
uh,
1495
00:31:22.209 --> 00:31:22.410
much,
1496
00:31:22.530 --> 00:31:23.390
much better than,
1497
00:31:23.530 --> 00:31:23.839
uh,
1498
00:31:23.959 --> 00:31:25.920
than certainly Katie Zachariah turned out to be.
1499
00:31:25.969 --> 00:31:26.130
Now,
1500
00:31:26.229 --> 00:31:27.290
who knows what she would have turned into,
1501
00:31:27.369 --> 00:31:28.560
maybe she would have grown into it,
1502
00:31:28.609 --> 00:31:28.869
but
1503
00:31:29.050 --> 00:31:30.790
it's totally unfair
1504
00:31:31.010 --> 00:31:34.119
to put a person like that in that position the way that they did.
1505
00:31:34.380 --> 00:31:34.569
They,
1506
00:31:34.650 --> 00:31:34.849
they,
1507
00:31:34.969 --> 00:31:35.329
they,
1508
00:31:35.449 --> 00:31:35.479
uh,
1509
00:31:35.689 --> 00:31:36.709
she got the job,
1510
00:31:37.089 --> 00:31:37.430
um,
1511
00:31:37.609 --> 00:31:39.239
they put her out there immediately,
1512
00:31:39.290 --> 00:31:39.739
basically.
1513
00:31:39.810 --> 00:31:42.489
They gave her one briefing in the morning and then threw her out in front of the press.
1514
00:31:42.550 --> 00:31:43.640
It did not go well.
1515
00:31:44.079 --> 00:31:45.010
She obviously was nervous,
1516
00:31:45.079 --> 00:31:46.339
but it seemed like more than that.
1517
00:31:46.969 --> 00:31:47.609
And,
1518
00:31:47.619 --> 00:31:48.339
uh,
1519
00:31:48.459 --> 00:31:51.140
everyone kind of knew that this was not gonna last long from the beginning.
1520
00:31:52.160 --> 00:31:52.599
So you might say,
1521
00:31:52.640 --> 00:31:53.479
how did I lose?
1522
00:31:53.599 --> 00:31:55.560
How could I lose a position on that?
1523
00:31:56.040 --> 00:31:57.900
My thought process at the time.
1524
00:31:58.959 --> 00:32:00.660
Was uh to say,
1525
00:32:02.000 --> 00:32:02.280
Yes,
1526
00:32:02.359 --> 00:32:04.219
I think there's a chance that she will be out,
1527
00:32:04.280 --> 00:32:04.780
uh,
1528
00:32:04.880 --> 00:32:05.040
very,
1529
00:32:05.119 --> 00:32:05.680
very soon.
1530
00:32:06.599 --> 00:32:08.630
But why on earth would they do this
1531
00:32:09.290 --> 00:32:10.250
before the election?
1532
00:32:10.770 --> 00:32:12.449
There was a contract on the board.
1533
00:32:12.489 --> 00:32:13.400
I think we have the markets up.
1534
00:32:13.459 --> 00:32:14.510
Do we have this market up here,
1535
00:32:14.569 --> 00:32:14.689
uh,
1536
00:32:14.770 --> 00:32:15.160
Adam?
1537
00:32:15.430 --> 00:32:17.229
No surprise as to where this resolved as they,
1538
00:32:17.290 --> 00:32:17.410
uh,
1539
00:32:17.489 --> 00:32:17.609
they,
1540
00:32:17.810 --> 00:32:17.829
you know,
1541
00:32:17.969 --> 00:32:18.560
she is out.
1542
00:32:18.729 --> 00:32:19.250
If you scroll down,
1543
00:32:19.290 --> 00:32:20.280
you'll see the options though.
1544
00:32:20.369 --> 00:32:22.469
$2.8 million of volume in this market,
1545
00:32:22.969 --> 00:32:23.430
um.
1546
00:32:24.339 --> 00:32:25.270
And to see the various dates.
1547
00:32:25.390 --> 00:32:27.219
The November 1st one I thought was interesting,
1548
00:32:27.430 --> 00:32:28.689
and I had a no position.
1549
00:32:29.530 --> 00:32:30.920
On will she be out
1550
00:32:31.140 --> 00:32:32.140
by November 1st,
1551
00:32:32.180 --> 00:32:35.079
and I think it was something like 15 or 20% uh to get.
1552
00:32:35.449 --> 00:32:36.640
And my thought was,
1553
00:32:37.380 --> 00:32:38.099
why
1554
00:32:38.540 --> 00:32:39.800
on earth
1555
00:32:40.500 --> 00:32:42.930
wouldn't you just hide her for a couple of weeks?
1556
00:32:43.020 --> 00:32:44.619
If you really think she can't do this job,
1557
00:32:44.739 --> 00:32:45.099
first of all,
1558
00:32:45.219 --> 00:32:46.819
how the heck did she get the job in the first place?
1559
00:32:46.859 --> 00:32:47.760
It's insanity.
1560
00:32:47.900 --> 00:32:49.000
If you didn't think she could do it,
1561
00:32:49.099 --> 00:32:49.939
and you saw that performance,
1562
00:32:50.000 --> 00:32:50.180
it,
1563
00:32:50.420 --> 00:32:53.180
I can't imagine she was that much different in the interviews.
1564
00:32:53.300 --> 00:32:54.209
But let's say she was,
1565
00:32:54.219 --> 00:32:54.530
and you're like,
1566
00:32:54.579 --> 00:32:54.939
oh my gosh,
1567
00:32:55.050 --> 00:32:55.699
she's out of her depth,
1568
00:32:55.780 --> 00:32:55.930
we,
1569
00:32:56.020 --> 00:32:57.000
we can't have her going,
1570
00:32:57.660 --> 00:32:57.880
OK,
1571
00:32:57.979 --> 00:32:58.260
fine.
1572
00:32:59.339 --> 00:32:59.819
You say,
1573
00:32:59.979 --> 00:33:00.280
hey,
1574
00:33:00.449 --> 00:33:00.699
uh,
1575
00:33:00.780 --> 00:33:01.359
you know what,
1576
00:33:01.459 --> 00:33:02.439
uh,
1577
00:33:02.699 --> 00:33:04.979
the moving truck never showed up and God forbid,
1578
00:33:05.060 --> 00:33:06.079
she's not even here yet,
1579
00:33:06.130 --> 00:33:07.099
and she's gotta take time.
1580
00:33:07.180 --> 00:33:09.739
We're giving her time to transition and get up to speed on everything.
1581
00:33:09.930 --> 00:33:11.150
It's gonna take a couple of weeks.
1582
00:33:11.319 --> 00:33:13.489
You could work with her in that period and try to get
1583
00:33:13.489 --> 00:33:15.959
her up to speed over the couple of weeks before the election.
1584
00:33:16.459 --> 00:33:17.819
You could fill in with other people,
1585
00:33:17.900 --> 00:33:20.099
other experts if you needed to do any briefings.
1586
00:33:20.609 --> 00:33:20.969
And,
1587
00:33:21.050 --> 00:33:21.170
you know,
1588
00:33:21.250 --> 00:33:21.369
you,
1589
00:33:21.449 --> 00:33:21.829
you went,
1590
00:33:22.010 --> 00:33:23.989
you just went a month without anybody.
1591
00:33:24.369 --> 00:33:25.050
1 month plus,
1592
00:33:25.130 --> 00:33:26.170
I don't know how long it was.
1593
00:33:26.290 --> 00:33:27.920
Just don't have anybody for a few weeks.
1594
00:33:27.979 --> 00:33:28.650
Don't do any of these,
1595
00:33:28.709 --> 00:33:28.930
uh,
1596
00:33:29.170 --> 00:33:30.390
normal press conferences
1597
00:33:30.689 --> 00:33:31.119
and,
1598
00:33:31.150 --> 00:33:31.329
uh,
1599
00:33:31.410 --> 00:33:33.109
string it out for 2 more weeks.
1600
00:33:33.689 --> 00:33:37.209
Why would you insert another level of embarrassment right before this election?
1601
00:33:37.250 --> 00:33:37.689
I don't know,
1602
00:33:37.800 --> 00:33:40.810
and I would ask the same question of why you hired her right before the election.
1603
00:33:41.140 --> 00:33:41.410
But,
1604
00:33:41.530 --> 00:33:41.680
OK,
1605
00:33:41.739 --> 00:33:42.300
you put her in there,
1606
00:33:42.380 --> 00:33:43.060
it didn't work out,
1607
00:33:43.140 --> 00:33:43.979
you're gonna get rid of her.
1608
00:33:44.140 --> 00:33:45.479
Why would you increase
1609
00:33:45.849 --> 00:33:49.099
the embarrassment factor by firing her 5 days after she
1610
00:33:49.099 --> 00:33:51.140
took the job in the middle of the election,
1611
00:33:51.260 --> 00:33:52.359
2 weeks before the election.
1612
00:33:52.699 --> 00:33:54.199
Why wouldn't you just take her
1613
00:33:54.540 --> 00:33:55.479
and hide her?
1614
00:33:56.099 --> 00:33:57.380
Hide her for a couple of weeks,
1615
00:33:57.459 --> 00:33:58.489
that's all you gotta do.
1616
00:33:58.739 --> 00:34:01.260
All you gotta do is not give her any big jobs
1617
00:34:01.260 --> 00:34:02.920
for the next couple of weeks in front of a camera.
1618
00:34:03.180 --> 00:34:04.420
That is not that difficult.
1619
00:34:04.500 --> 00:34:05.540
I know she's a press secretary,
1620
00:34:05.619 --> 00:34:06.800
I know this is her job.
1621
00:34:07.109 --> 00:34:09.270
But have her not do the job for 2 weeks,
1622
00:34:09.389 --> 00:34:10.129
2 weeks.
1623
00:34:10.469 --> 00:34:10.590
Uh,
1624
00:34:10.629 --> 00:34:11.550
the next day after the election,
1625
00:34:11.590 --> 00:34:12.530
you can do whatever you want.
1626
00:34:13.030 --> 00:34:13.310
Now again,
1627
00:34:13.350 --> 00:34:14.149
I'm talking in,
1628
00:34:14.188 --> 00:34:14.590
in a,
1629
00:34:14.708 --> 00:34:15.139
not as a,
1630
00:34:15.310 --> 00:34:16.070
her as a person,
1631
00:34:16.188 --> 00:34:18.458
which I'm sure it's gotta be an incredibly difficult time,
1632
00:34:18.469 --> 00:34:19.040
and by the way,
1633
00:34:19.188 --> 00:34:19.489
again,
1634
00:34:20.188 --> 00:34:21.909
not entirely to her making.
1635
00:34:22.699 --> 00:34:23.699
There is a report about,
1636
00:34:23.780 --> 00:34:24.060
um,
1637
00:34:24.219 --> 00:34:24.340
you know,
1638
00:34:24.418 --> 00:34:25.800
because she did the bad press,
1639
00:34:25.810 --> 00:34:26.260
uh,
1640
00:34:26.458 --> 00:34:26.620
response,
1641
00:34:26.739 --> 00:34:27.850
then went out and did a couple of interviews.
1642
00:34:27.938 --> 00:34:28.958
Those didn't go well either.
1643
00:34:29.500 --> 00:34:29.580
Uh,
1644
00:34:29.659 --> 00:34:30.699
Katie Zachariah pushed for,
1645
00:34:30.739 --> 00:34:30.949
uh,
1646
00:34:31.060 --> 00:34:32.840
disastrous Fox News interviews
1647
00:34:32.978 --> 00:34:34.800
that led to her ouster as press secretary.
1648
00:34:35.179 --> 00:34:35.290
The,
1649
00:34:35.340 --> 00:34:35.500
the,
1650
00:34:35.580 --> 00:34:38.500
the reporting is that Trump actually was like kind of not
1651
00:34:38.500 --> 00:34:41.280
nearly as negative on her first appearance as everybody else was.
1652
00:34:41.708 --> 00:34:42.250
Um,
1653
00:34:42.469 --> 00:34:44.870
there was a report of speculation that this was a
1654
00:34:44.870 --> 00:34:47.550
sanctioned hit and that they put her on with Hannity,
1655
00:34:47.790 --> 00:34:48.570
so that Hannity
1656
00:34:48.708 --> 00:34:49.969
would ask her tough questions,
1657
00:34:50.310 --> 00:34:51.110
make her look bad again,
1658
00:34:51.149 --> 00:34:52.060
and they could push her out.
1659
00:34:52.188 --> 00:34:53.188
I don't know that I buy that.
1660
00:34:53.228 --> 00:34:53.469
In fact,
1661
00:34:53.510 --> 00:34:55.300
this reporting kind of says the opposite.
1662
00:34:55.629 --> 00:34:55.830
This,
1663
00:34:55.949 --> 00:34:56.188
this,
1664
00:34:56.228 --> 00:34:56.620
uh,
1665
00:34:56.629 --> 00:34:58.939
reporting says that she was actually the one texting,
1666
00:34:58.989 --> 00:35:00.100
asking for these interviews.
1667
00:35:00.310 --> 00:35:00.989
And again,
1668
00:35:01.270 --> 00:35:02.250
I understand that approach.
1669
00:35:03.330 --> 00:35:04.330
But if you're the White House,
1670
00:35:04.570 --> 00:35:05.489
you're in the middle of this election,
1671
00:35:05.560 --> 00:35:06.409
you got a lot of things.
1672
00:35:06.489 --> 00:35:10.229
The last thing you want is the conversation to be about some bad decision
1673
00:35:10.449 --> 00:35:11.550
you just made,
1674
00:35:12.010 --> 00:35:12.969
right before the election.
1675
00:35:14.179 --> 00:35:14.949
Just hide her.
1676
00:35:16.070 --> 00:35:18.500
Just say she's in the middle of taking in the upkeep,
1677
00:35:18.860 --> 00:35:19.250
take the,
1678
00:35:19.300 --> 00:35:19.530
the,
1679
00:35:19.540 --> 00:35:19.919
uh,
1680
00:35:19.929 --> 00:35:20.939
the take-up of the job.
1681
00:35:21.020 --> 00:35:22.179
She's in the middle of learning everything.
1682
00:35:22.300 --> 00:35:23.260
She's,
1683
00:35:23.780 --> 00:35:24.209
she's gotta be,
1684
00:35:24.300 --> 00:35:25.459
she's gotta figure out who her assistants are,
1685
00:35:25.540 --> 00:35:26.250
she's hiring people,
1686
00:35:26.340 --> 00:35:27.000
she's building stuff,
1687
00:35:27.300 --> 00:35:28.560
whatever you gotta say.
1688
00:35:29.870 --> 00:35:32.590
And then whenever that Wednesday comes up and too,
1689
00:35:32.790 --> 00:35:33.070
too early,
1690
00:35:33.149 --> 00:35:33.510
let's see,
1691
00:35:33.669 --> 00:35:35.129
a little over 2 weeks from today,
1692
00:35:35.709 --> 00:35:37.229
then you can let her go and whatever,
1693
00:35:37.389 --> 00:35:39.750
maybe distracts from a bad election result or,
1694
00:35:39.790 --> 00:35:40.030
you know,
1695
00:35:40.510 --> 00:35:42.010
people are celebrating the good one and they don't care.
1696
00:35:43.179 --> 00:35:44.699
Why would you do it now?
1697
00:35:45.060 --> 00:35:45.260
Well,
1698
00:35:45.340 --> 00:35:46.439
that's the position I took.
1699
00:35:51.879 --> 00:35:51.959
I,
1700
00:35:52.010 --> 00:35:52.530
as I said on,
1701
00:35:52.570 --> 00:35:52.870
uh,
1702
00:35:52.889 --> 00:35:53.189
Twitter,
1703
00:35:53.280 --> 00:35:55.649
I have a position on no on the press secretary to be fired for
1704
00:35:55.649 --> 00:35:58.290
the midterms because you could just easily hide her for a couple of weeks.
1705
00:35:58.360 --> 00:36:00.760
So why embarrass yourself any further in the middle of
1706
00:36:00.760 --> 00:36:03.590
an election when it's so easily avoidable and it's gone.
1707
00:36:03.929 --> 00:36:04.810
All my money's gone.
1708
00:36:05.330 --> 00:36:08.489
There it is from South Park and it's gone.
1709
00:36:09.449 --> 00:36:11.570
That's from back from the uh financial crisis when
1710
00:36:11.570 --> 00:36:13.330
you put money into your own account and you'd
1711
00:36:13.330 --> 00:36:14.530
think you were growing it and then it would
1712
00:36:14.530 --> 00:36:17.340
just be all completely gone with no explanation whatsoever.
1713
00:36:17.649 --> 00:36:18.260
It's gone.
1714
00:36:19.250 --> 00:36:20.290
So I lost.
1715
00:36:20.649 --> 00:36:22.010
I felt the prediction pain.
1716
00:36:22.129 --> 00:36:23.149
I got clubbbered
1717
00:36:23.330 --> 00:36:23.969
in that situation.
1718
00:36:24.010 --> 00:36:24.489
That's a new term.
1719
00:36:24.570 --> 00:36:25.590
I want to start using that term.
1720
00:36:25.810 --> 00:36:26.870
I got clubbbered.
1721
00:36:27.129 --> 00:36:28.409
I got lubber langed,
1722
00:36:28.729 --> 00:36:29.169
uh,
1723
00:36:29.250 --> 00:36:29.530
and,
1724
00:36:29.570 --> 00:36:29.989
uh,
1725
00:36:30.169 --> 00:36:30.590
you know,
1726
00:36:30.969 --> 00:36:31.330
you win some,
1727
00:36:31.409 --> 00:36:31.800
you lose some.
1728
00:36:31.850 --> 00:36:34.810
I gave back all my profits from my stupid Scott Jennings win.
1729
00:36:35.840 --> 00:36:36.300
So,
1730
00:36:36.560 --> 00:36:37.919
in case you lose and you think,
1731
00:36:38.040 --> 00:36:38.620
gosh,
1732
00:36:39.120 --> 00:36:40.389
why do I lose in prediction markets?
1733
00:36:40.719 --> 00:36:41.540
Sometimes you do.
1734
00:36:41.800 --> 00:36:44.909
You gotta make sure these things are sized correctly and appropriately,
1735
00:36:45.000 --> 00:36:46.919
so you uh are gonna get good benefit out of it.
1736
00:36:46.959 --> 00:36:47.879
But generally speaking,
1737
00:36:48.429 --> 00:36:48.719
Uh,
1738
00:36:48.800 --> 00:36:49.459
you do lose some.
1739
00:36:49.560 --> 00:36:51.199
It's not all winners on prediction markets.
1740
00:36:51.399 --> 00:36:52.020
Sometimes they're hard.
1741
00:36:52.479 --> 00:36:53.770
We just try to stack the winners,
1742
00:36:53.989 --> 00:36:55.340
gain those over time.
1743
00:36:55.679 --> 00:36:57.399
Those fuel occasionally in a loss,
1744
00:36:57.520 --> 00:36:58.000
but overall,
1745
00:36:58.040 --> 00:36:59.189
you still get to be profitable.
1746
00:36:59.239 --> 00:37:01.110
That's what we're aiming for here unpredictable with Stu.
1747
00:37:01.469 --> 00:37:03.939
Trying to walk you through these elections because we've got so many more
1748
00:37:04.040 --> 00:37:06.040
opportunities here in just a couple of weeks.
1749
00:37:06.139 --> 00:37:08.389
15 days out from election day.
1750
00:37:08.560 --> 00:37:08.949
Hopefully,
1751
00:37:09.000 --> 00:37:11.040
no prediction pain will be felt
1752
00:37:11.239 --> 00:37:11.580
on
1753
00:37:11.709 --> 00:37:12.449
Tuesday,
1754
00:37:12.679 --> 00:37:13.639
the 4th,
1755
00:37:13.709 --> 00:37:14.500
is it the 4th?
1756
00:37:15.010 --> 00:37:15.929
Is it November 4th?
1757
00:37:16.169 --> 00:37:16.659
I can't remember.
1758
00:37:16.760 --> 00:37:17.370
3rd or 4th,
1759
00:37:17.449 --> 00:37:18.209
it's something like that.
1760
00:37:18.330 --> 00:37:18.909
Whatever it is,
1761
00:37:19.370 --> 00:37:19.520
uh,
1762
00:37:19.530 --> 00:37:19.729
hopefully,
1763
00:37:19.770 --> 00:37:21.260
we don't feel prediction pain on that day.
1764
00:37:21.409 --> 00:37:22.169
I'll have more in a second.
1765
00:37:36.729 --> 00:37:36.840
Well,
1766
00:37:36.889 --> 00:37:37.679
as we all know,
1767
00:37:37.810 --> 00:37:39.090
prediction markets are just gambling.
1768
00:37:39.209 --> 00:37:41.969
That's what we hear from the media from a day to day basis,
1769
00:37:42.010 --> 00:37:43.070
basically all the time.
1770
00:37:43.649 --> 00:37:44.870
And that's fine.
1771
00:37:45.090 --> 00:37:45.449
That is,
1772
00:37:45.489 --> 00:37:45.939
uh,
1773
00:37:46.209 --> 00:37:47.010
I have their opinions.
1774
00:37:47.090 --> 00:37:47.949
I don't agree with them.
1775
00:37:48.169 --> 00:37:49.360
And I wanna talk to you about,
1776
00:37:49.409 --> 00:37:49.639
um,
1777
00:37:49.729 --> 00:37:50.139
a couple of,
1778
00:37:50.300 --> 00:37:52.090
every once in a while I like to bring up these examples as to
1779
00:37:52.090 --> 00:37:54.570
different ways you can think about using prediction markets in your own life,
1780
00:37:54.649 --> 00:37:55.389
in your own business.
1781
00:37:56.139 --> 00:37:56.669
Um,
1782
00:37:56.860 --> 00:37:58.689
an interesting thing here when it comes to,
1783
00:37:58.699 --> 00:37:59.159
um,
1784
00:37:59.620 --> 00:38:00.080
some
1785
00:38:00.260 --> 00:38:03.290
bars and restaurants around Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles,
1786
00:38:03.820 --> 00:38:04.979
some of them around Dodger Stadium.
1787
00:38:05.010 --> 00:38:05.820
There's a group of restaurants,
1788
00:38:05.899 --> 00:38:06.780
25 restaurants.
1789
00:38:07.629 --> 00:38:08.290
And
1790
00:38:08.629 --> 00:38:10.250
they looked at their future a little bit.
1791
00:38:10.709 --> 00:38:10.870
Now,
1792
00:38:10.929 --> 00:38:11.310
as you know,
1793
00:38:11.379 --> 00:38:12.149
the Dodgers have,
1794
00:38:12.189 --> 00:38:12.689
um,
1795
00:38:13.070 --> 00:38:16.030
tragically won the last World Series against my Toronto Blue Jays,
1796
00:38:16.389 --> 00:38:16.590
um,
1797
00:38:16.669 --> 00:38:16.879
but,
1798
00:38:16.949 --> 00:38:17.139
uh,
1799
00:38:17.229 --> 00:38:18.850
have won a couple of World Series in a row.
1800
00:38:19.149 --> 00:38:19.629
And,
1801
00:38:19.709 --> 00:38:20.169
uh,
1802
00:38:20.350 --> 00:38:20.850
when
1803
00:38:21.389 --> 00:38:22.689
they're in the World Series,
1804
00:38:22.989 --> 00:38:24.330
when they're playing those games,
1805
00:38:24.469 --> 00:38:26.429
that's very good for the surrounding area,
1806
00:38:26.590 --> 00:38:26.770
right?
1807
00:38:26.949 --> 00:38:27.790
Makes a lot of sense,
1808
00:38:27.870 --> 00:38:28.070
right?
1809
00:38:28.229 --> 00:38:28.500
They,
1810
00:38:28.780 --> 00:38:29.929
when people are coming to the stadium,
1811
00:38:30.310 --> 00:38:31.070
people come to the bars,
1812
00:38:31.139 --> 00:38:32.020
they come to the restaurants.
1813
00:38:32.270 --> 00:38:32.919
When people are,
1814
00:38:33.070 --> 00:38:34.469
when the Dodgers are in the World Series,
1815
00:38:34.550 --> 00:38:37.429
people are packing the sports bars so they can watch the games on TV.
1816
00:38:37.780 --> 00:38:38.149
And yeah,
1817
00:38:38.229 --> 00:38:40.270
that means something for your Friday night or your Saturday night,
1818
00:38:40.310 --> 00:38:42.790
but it also means something for these restaurants and bars.
1819
00:38:43.229 --> 00:38:44.129
They're looking at this and saying,
1820
00:38:44.229 --> 00:38:44.389
well,
1821
00:38:44.550 --> 00:38:46.929
if the Dodgers make the World Series,
1822
00:38:47.389 --> 00:38:48.870
we can count on multiple,
1823
00:38:49.070 --> 00:38:49.350
you know,
1824
00:38:49.489 --> 00:38:50.590
an extra night,
1825
00:38:50.790 --> 00:38:51.209
certainly,
1826
00:38:51.439 --> 00:38:51.939
um,
1827
00:38:52.100 --> 00:38:52.550
you know,
1828
00:38:53.110 --> 00:38:53.909
at least 4
1829
00:38:54.149 --> 00:38:55.689
nights in another week or two
1830
00:38:56.149 --> 00:38:56.850
of
1831
00:38:57.270 --> 00:38:58.229
really big revenue,
1832
00:38:58.389 --> 00:38:59.189
packed bars,
1833
00:38:59.389 --> 00:38:59.889
packed,
1834
00:39:00.149 --> 00:39:00.760
uh,
1835
00:39:00.909 --> 00:39:01.370
restaurants,
1836
00:39:01.870 --> 00:39:03.729
tons of revenue coming in our way.
1837
00:39:04.540 --> 00:39:05.889
If they lose
1838
00:39:06.270 --> 00:39:07.590
in the NLCS,
1839
00:39:08.120 --> 00:39:08.340
well,
1840
00:39:08.389 --> 00:39:09.889
then those people aren't coming,
1841
00:39:10.610 --> 00:39:11.149
most likely,
1842
00:39:11.250 --> 00:39:12.629
those games won't be happening,
1843
00:39:12.909 --> 00:39:14.350
that revenue won't come to us.
1844
00:39:14.669 --> 00:39:15.929
What can we do about that?
1845
00:39:16.389 --> 00:39:17.929
Up until now,
1846
00:39:18.389 --> 00:39:19.830
the answer to that has been nothing.
1847
00:39:22.129 --> 00:39:22.810
Go Dodgers.
1848
00:39:22.929 --> 00:39:24.189
That's basically been,
1849
00:39:24.250 --> 00:39:24.760
uh,
1850
00:39:24.770 --> 00:39:25.330
your,
1851
00:39:25.649 --> 00:39:26.159
uh,
1852
00:39:26.169 --> 00:39:27.790
way of handling that situation
1853
00:39:28.090 --> 00:39:29.080
if you are,
1854
00:39:29.250 --> 00:39:29.510
uh,
1855
00:39:29.520 --> 00:39:30.270
in that area.
1856
00:39:30.409 --> 00:39:32.389
And this goes for places all around the country.
1857
00:39:32.929 --> 00:39:34.510
So what can you do instead?
1858
00:39:34.810 --> 00:39:35.070
Now,
1859
00:39:35.219 --> 00:39:36.050
with prediction markets,
1860
00:39:36.129 --> 00:39:37.070
this happened with Calci,
1861
00:39:37.169 --> 00:39:38.750
an LA restaurant group
1862
00:39:38.889 --> 00:39:40.510
used $60,000
1863
00:39:41.310 --> 00:39:41.610
against,
1864
00:39:41.689 --> 00:39:42.479
and then they call it a,
1865
00:39:42.560 --> 00:39:43.040
a bet.
1866
00:39:43.090 --> 00:39:44.290
It's just gambling.
1867
00:39:45.620 --> 00:39:45.780
Uh,
1868
00:39:45.870 --> 00:39:47.409
to hedge their playoff risk,
1869
00:39:47.810 --> 00:39:48.350
says Calci.
1870
00:39:49.139 --> 00:39:49.699
So Kalihi,
1871
00:39:49.909 --> 00:39:50.139
um,
1872
00:39:50.300 --> 00:39:50.580
this,
1873
00:39:50.699 --> 00:39:51.770
this bar group went in,
1874
00:39:52.060 --> 00:39:53.879
got $60,000 of shares
1875
00:39:54.139 --> 00:39:55.239
for the Dodgers
1876
00:39:55.500 --> 00:39:56.280
to lose.
1877
00:39:56.580 --> 00:39:57.760
When they did lose,
1878
00:39:58.060 --> 00:39:58.800
they got paid.
1879
00:39:59.760 --> 00:40:00.699
As if
1880
00:40:01.280 --> 00:40:01.830
their,
1881
00:40:01.919 --> 00:40:02.810
uh,
1882
00:40:03.239 --> 00:40:04.320
uh,
1883
00:40:04.639 --> 00:40:06.320
bars and restaurants were completely filled,
1884
00:40:06.399 --> 00:40:07.560
except they didn't have to have all,
1885
00:40:07.689 --> 00:40:07.790
they,
1886
00:40:07.919 --> 00:40:08.840
they didn't have to do the work.
1887
00:40:09.080 --> 00:40:10.030
They didn't have to sell the food,
1888
00:40:10.080 --> 00:40:11.149
they didn't have to have people come in.
1889
00:40:11.320 --> 00:40:11.429
Now,
1890
00:40:11.469 --> 00:40:11.739
of course,
1891
00:40:11.909 --> 00:40:12.879
I'm sure they would have liked that.
1892
00:40:13.080 --> 00:40:14.919
They would have much rather have the Dodgers winning,
1893
00:40:15.000 --> 00:40:15.439
likely,
1894
00:40:15.760 --> 00:40:15.959
um,
1895
00:40:16.080 --> 00:40:16.659
but
1896
00:40:17.239 --> 00:40:17.639
because of this,
1897
00:40:17.709 --> 00:40:20.979
they were able to essentially get the business that would have happened.
1898
00:40:21.409 --> 00:40:22.709
If the Dodgers had won
1899
00:40:22.929 --> 00:40:24.000
without the Dodgers winning.
1900
00:40:24.280 --> 00:40:28.149
They were able to take a massive element of risk out of their business
1901
00:40:28.409 --> 00:40:29.530
and instead
1902
00:40:29.929 --> 00:40:32.649
become more profitable than they would have been otherwise.
1903
00:40:33.760 --> 00:40:35.250
You can do that with your company.
1904
00:40:35.310 --> 00:40:36.399
If you have a small business,
1905
00:40:36.520 --> 00:40:36.600
uh,
1906
00:40:36.679 --> 00:40:37.000
now again,
1907
00:40:37.040 --> 00:40:38.360
you might not have a bar or a restaurant,
1908
00:40:38.399 --> 00:40:39.800
you might not be as dependent on sports.
1909
00:40:39.919 --> 00:40:40.360
Sports is,
1910
00:40:40.719 --> 00:40:42.679
it's funny because they talk about sports with gambling all the time.
1911
00:40:42.750 --> 00:40:44.389
It's just the easiest thing to understand.
1912
00:40:44.600 --> 00:40:45.189
It's a lot harder,
1913
00:40:45.239 --> 00:40:45.399
like,
1914
00:40:45.439 --> 00:40:45.639
you know,
1915
00:40:45.760 --> 00:40:48.540
there's air conditioning companies out there that are doing this with the weather,
1916
00:40:49.159 --> 00:40:49.580
right?
1917
00:40:50.000 --> 00:40:52.909
There are oil companies doing this with oil prices and
1918
00:40:52.909 --> 00:40:55.110
things in like the Strait of Hormuz opening up,
1919
00:40:55.320 --> 00:40:55.520
right?
1920
00:40:55.639 --> 00:40:56.820
How else could they hedge that?
1921
00:40:57.120 --> 00:40:58.739
Rich people have been hedging these things forever.
1922
00:40:59.350 --> 00:40:59.750
Now,
1923
00:40:59.909 --> 00:41:01.350
average people can do it too.
1924
00:41:01.550 --> 00:41:02.949
Average business owners,
1925
00:41:03.229 --> 00:41:04.169
regular people
1926
00:41:04.290 --> 00:41:06.340
can get the same sort of effort out of that,
1927
00:41:06.350 --> 00:41:07.050
and that's why
1928
00:41:07.350 --> 00:41:07.979
these things are really,
1929
00:41:08.030 --> 00:41:09.590
really effective and it's not just gambling.
1930
00:41:09.669 --> 00:41:10.870
You can use it in crazy ways.
1931
00:41:10.909 --> 00:41:11.320
You wanna use it,
1932
00:41:11.389 --> 00:41:12.790
you wanna try to make it into gambling,
1933
00:41:12.830 --> 00:41:13.570
you can try.
1934
00:41:13.989 --> 00:41:16.020
But you can also use it in really responsible ways.
1935
00:41:16.189 --> 00:41:18.810
You can use it as an investment and you can use it to hedge
1936
00:41:19.310 --> 00:41:20.449
wins and losses
1937
00:41:20.669 --> 00:41:21.510
in your business.
1938
00:41:21.790 --> 00:41:22.389
Back in a second.
1939
00:41:32.439 --> 00:41:32.790
All right,
1940
00:41:32.840 --> 00:41:35.379
it's time for our candidate of the day.
1941
00:41:35.479 --> 00:41:36.280
Our candidate countdown,
1942
00:41:36.290 --> 00:41:37.120
15 days left.
1943
00:41:37.199 --> 00:41:39.600
We try to do a candidate every single day where there might be some value
1944
00:41:39.600 --> 00:41:42.000
or at least give us a lesson on how we should play these markets.
1945
00:41:42.070 --> 00:41:45.899
Our candidate of the day today with 15 days remaining until election day is
1946
00:41:46.320 --> 00:41:47.300
Ben Ray
1947
00:41:47.929 --> 00:41:48.479
Lujan.
1948
00:41:49.479 --> 00:41:49.669
Yeah,
1949
00:41:49.729 --> 00:41:50.629
it's fun to say,
1950
00:41:51.129 --> 00:41:52.209
and he's probably going to win.
1951
00:41:52.290 --> 00:41:52.929
Ben Ray Lujan,
1952
00:41:53.010 --> 00:41:54.709
he's a Democrat in New Mexico,
1953
00:41:55.050 --> 00:41:55.429
and,
1954
00:41:55.570 --> 00:41:56.000
um,
1955
00:41:56.010 --> 00:42:00.250
the predictable midterm consensus is a consensus measure of all expert opinion,
1956
00:42:00.489 --> 00:42:01.330
not my opinions,
1957
00:42:01.409 --> 00:42:02.870
not the prediction markets themselves,
1958
00:42:03.010 --> 00:42:03.290
but
1959
00:42:03.610 --> 00:42:04.409
what are the experts saying?
1960
00:42:04.479 --> 00:42:05.489
What are these election models saying?
1961
00:42:05.570 --> 00:42:06.209
What are the prediction,
1962
00:42:06.280 --> 00:42:06.479
uh,
1963
00:42:06.489 --> 00:42:07.370
polling averages saying,
1964
00:42:07.409 --> 00:42:08.030
all that stuff.
1965
00:42:08.330 --> 00:42:08.489
Um,
1966
00:42:08.570 --> 00:42:10.969
do we have New Mexico by any chance up here ready to go?
1967
00:42:11.229 --> 00:42:11.590
Um,
1968
00:42:11.659 --> 00:42:11.909
Adam,
1969
00:42:11.989 --> 00:42:12.110
yeah,
1970
00:42:12.229 --> 00:42:12.550
here it is,
1971
00:42:12.629 --> 00:42:12.709
uh,
1972
00:42:12.750 --> 00:42:14.600
the 98% chance to win.
1973
00:42:14.870 --> 00:42:15.179
OK,
1974
00:42:15.429 --> 00:42:16.229
so that is what,
1975
00:42:16.350 --> 00:42:18.479
and I honestly think that might be slightly underpriced,
1976
00:42:18.629 --> 00:42:19.679
98 to 2%.
1977
00:42:20.110 --> 00:42:20.300
Um,
1978
00:42:20.389 --> 00:42:20.709
now you,
1979
00:42:20.870 --> 00:42:21.770
one of the reasons why,
1980
00:42:22.189 --> 00:42:22.510
um,
1981
00:42:22.629 --> 00:42:23.120
you know,
1982
00:42:23.870 --> 00:42:25.310
Democrats usually win New Mexico.
1983
00:42:26.449 --> 00:42:26.830
But,
1984
00:42:27.209 --> 00:42:27.870
uh,
1985
00:42:28.290 --> 00:42:29.250
it's even more than that.
1986
00:42:29.409 --> 00:42:29.689
Um,
1987
00:42:29.889 --> 00:42:30.250
the,
1988
00:42:30.409 --> 00:42:30.520
uh,
1989
00:42:30.530 --> 00:42:31.429
cash on hand,
1990
00:42:31.570 --> 00:42:31.760
uh,
1991
00:42:31.850 --> 00:42:32.080
recently,
1992
00:42:32.169 --> 00:42:33.050
this is the end of the summer,
1993
00:42:33.129 --> 00:42:33.489
but it was,
1994
00:42:33.530 --> 00:42:33.689
uh,
1995
00:42:33.729 --> 00:42:37.770
$4.4 million for Lujan and his opponent had $11,000.
1996
00:42:38.370 --> 00:42:38.620
So
1997
00:42:38.889 --> 00:42:39.560
it's a real,
1998
00:42:39.750 --> 00:42:40.629
real difference here.
1999
00:42:40.929 --> 00:42:41.250
Um,
2000
00:42:41.449 --> 00:42:42.929
this is the prediction market and what it looks like right now,
2001
00:42:42.969 --> 00:42:44.800
and you'll see it reflects basically the PMC.
2002
00:42:44.929 --> 00:42:46.729
It is at 97.4%,
2003
00:42:46.810 --> 00:42:47.239
which again,
2004
00:42:47.250 --> 00:42:48.449
is probably underpriced.
2005
00:42:48.770 --> 00:42:48.840
Uh,
2006
00:42:48.889 --> 00:42:49.830
he's gonna win that race,
2007
00:42:49.840 --> 00:42:53.010
and this is not the environment in which New Mexico is going to be competitive.
2008
00:42:53.080 --> 00:42:54.510
We have seen those environments before.
2009
00:42:54.919 --> 00:42:55.199
Um,
2010
00:42:55.239 --> 00:42:55.360
you know,
2011
00:42:55.399 --> 00:42:56.439
in 2024,
2012
00:42:56.479 --> 00:42:56.830
there was a,
2013
00:42:56.879 --> 00:42:58.020
a Senate race there,
2014
00:42:58.320 --> 00:43:00.659
and it was only a 10 point margin.
2015
00:43:01.080 --> 00:43:01.760
Is that competitive?
2016
00:43:01.860 --> 00:43:02.040
Uh,
2017
00:43:02.159 --> 00:43:02.649
not quite.
2018
00:43:02.800 --> 00:43:05.639
It was 6 points in 2020 last time Lujan won.
2019
00:43:05.929 --> 00:43:06.149
Um,
2020
00:43:06.239 --> 00:43:08.120
it was a much closer race and a closer state,
2021
00:43:08.219 --> 00:43:08.600
frankly,
2022
00:43:08.719 --> 00:43:09.840
back in 2020,
2023
00:43:10.120 --> 00:43:11.939
but it was a 6.1% margin,
2024
00:43:12.040 --> 00:43:12.239
uh,
2025
00:43:12.370 --> 00:43:12.669
then.
2026
00:43:13.129 --> 00:43:14.000
Polling is,
2027
00:43:14.010 --> 00:43:14.469
uh,
2028
00:43:14.620 --> 00:43:15.120
double digits,
2029
00:43:15.199 --> 00:43:15.280
uh,
2030
00:43:15.290 --> 00:43:16.129
16 points,
2031
00:43:16.239 --> 00:43:16.969
18 points,
2032
00:43:17.040 --> 00:43:18.800
15 points the last three polls.
2033
00:43:19.090 --> 00:43:19.320
So,
2034
00:43:19.330 --> 00:43:19.409
again,
2035
00:43:19.570 --> 00:43:20.129
Lujan's gonna win.
2036
00:43:20.169 --> 00:43:20.449
You might say,
2037
00:43:20.510 --> 00:43:20.570
well,
2038
00:43:20.610 --> 00:43:21.330
there's no value there,
2039
00:43:21.449 --> 00:43:21.649
Stu.
2040
00:43:21.729 --> 00:43:22.489
Why are you even bringing this up?
2041
00:43:22.570 --> 00:43:24.370
Because I wanna show you a different way to play those markets.
2042
00:43:24.489 --> 00:43:25.000
Go back to the,
2043
00:43:25.010 --> 00:43:25.260
uh,
2044
00:43:25.270 --> 00:43:26.360
Calci market if we could,
2045
00:43:26.570 --> 00:43:27.560
and scroll down to,
2046
00:43:27.570 --> 00:43:27.760
uh,
2047
00:43:27.770 --> 00:43:29.189
where we'll see a margin market.
2048
00:43:29.610 --> 00:43:30.330
Um,
2049
00:43:30.689 --> 00:43:31.649
down there a little bit more,
2050
00:43:31.729 --> 00:43:32.449
a little bit more.
2051
00:43:32.530 --> 00:43:32.800
There we go,
2052
00:43:33.090 --> 00:43:34.350
Democratic margin of victory.
2053
00:43:34.689 --> 00:43:35.610
And you'll see here,
2054
00:43:35.689 --> 00:43:36.090
um,
2055
00:43:36.250 --> 00:43:36.560
uh,
2056
00:43:36.570 --> 00:43:37.909
open that up with show more.
2057
00:43:38.320 --> 00:43:39.000
You'll see here,
2058
00:43:39.010 --> 00:43:39.830
you can buy,
2059
00:43:40.209 --> 00:43:40.360
uh,
2060
00:43:40.489 --> 00:43:41.530
get more value in,
2061
00:43:41.570 --> 00:43:42.850
in different markets as you go.
2062
00:43:42.969 --> 00:43:43.129
Now,
2063
00:43:43.370 --> 00:43:45.149
Lujan only won by 6 last time,
2064
00:43:45.770 --> 00:43:46.729
but you can get,
2065
00:43:46.889 --> 00:43:48.050
if you think he's gonna win by 9,
2066
00:43:48.090 --> 00:43:49.530
1113,
2067
00:43:49.649 --> 00:43:50.439
like 9 points,
2068
00:43:50.750 --> 00:43:52.169
they say there's 85%.
2069
00:43:52.209 --> 00:43:54.169
I think it's actually higher in the actual market.
2070
00:43:54.530 --> 00:43:55.110
But you see,
2071
00:43:55.290 --> 00:43:55.679
um,
2072
00:43:55.879 --> 00:43:57.100
you can get some real values.
2073
00:43:57.209 --> 00:43:57.360
Now,
2074
00:43:57.370 --> 00:44:00.169
the problem with these markets are there's not a ton of liquidity there.
2075
00:44:00.250 --> 00:44:01.649
These are things you gotta jump in late.
2076
00:44:01.729 --> 00:44:03.570
A lot of times you jump in this like the day before,
2077
00:44:03.760 --> 00:44:04.850
2 days before the election.
2078
00:44:05.389 --> 00:44:06.989
And you'll see those start to fill up,
2079
00:44:07.080 --> 00:44:08.979
more volume will get into those races.
2080
00:44:09.270 --> 00:44:11.409
It's a secondary way to play out
2081
00:44:11.629 --> 00:44:12.669
a heavy favorite.
2082
00:44:12.949 --> 00:44:14.169
How much are they gonna win by?
2083
00:44:14.469 --> 00:44:14.949
Because I,
2084
00:44:15.070 --> 00:44:15.189
you know,
2085
00:44:15.270 --> 00:44:18.229
I look at that market and I think he's probably gonna win in double digits.
2086
00:44:18.570 --> 00:44:19.649
So you can look at some of those and say,
2087
00:44:19.689 --> 00:44:19.889
OK,
2088
00:44:19.969 --> 00:44:20.090
well,
2089
00:44:20.169 --> 00:44:20.449
9,
2090
00:44:20.530 --> 00:44:21.330
1113,
2091
00:44:21.449 --> 00:44:21.929
where are those,
2092
00:44:22.010 --> 00:44:22.939
where's that line for you,
2093
00:44:22.969 --> 00:44:23.169
you're,
2094
00:44:23.290 --> 00:44:26.250
where you're gonna look at some risk and you might be able to get a much better price
2095
00:44:26.610 --> 00:44:28.189
if it is a big Democratic year,
2096
00:44:28.290 --> 00:44:28.989
it can also help
2097
00:44:29.290 --> 00:44:31.800
hedge or maybe a position that you have in another city,
2098
00:44:32.090 --> 00:44:32.870
another state,
2099
00:44:33.129 --> 00:44:33.550
um,
2100
00:44:33.649 --> 00:44:35.850
where you have more Republican exposure.
2101
00:44:36.590 --> 00:44:36.840
Again,
2102
00:44:36.989 --> 00:44:37.790
we look at these things,
2103
00:44:38.000 --> 00:44:38.070
we,
2104
00:44:38.120 --> 00:44:38.280
you know,
2105
00:44:38.360 --> 00:44:41.320
we talk about the 10th Amendment of the predictable
2106
00:44:41.320 --> 00:44:43.320
Constitution often root for the world that you want,
2107
00:44:43.479 --> 00:44:44.860
invest in the world that you have.
2108
00:44:45.399 --> 00:44:47.239
And that is the most important one potentially.
2109
00:44:47.360 --> 00:44:47.649
So,
2110
00:44:47.840 --> 00:44:48.159
check that out,
2111
00:44:48.199 --> 00:44:49.000
the predictable Constitution,
2112
00:44:49.050 --> 00:44:49.239
by the way,
2113
00:44:49.320 --> 00:44:50.479
up at predictableShow.com.
2114
00:44:50.600 --> 00:44:52.350
Join us as a premium member there as well.
2115
00:44:52.620 --> 00:44:54.340
Get everything for free and so much more.
2116
00:44:54.429 --> 00:44:55.939
It's predictableShow.com.
2117
00:44:56.040 --> 00:44:57.120
Thank you so much for joining us.