00:00:00
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to future projection. This is episode 187 of the show. I am Carlos Glazo joined by Ben Battler as always.
00:00:08
Speaker 2: What's up, Ben?
00:00:08
Speaker 1: How you doing?
00:00:09
Speaker 3: We've got a new number one prospect in baseball, Carlos Jesus, my day with the brewers on 19 year old switch hitting shortstop and double a sayonara to Connor Griffin. We enjoyed the 17 and a half minutes when you were a prospect eligible in the minor leagues. And, uh, Wish you luck on your future endeavors, sir.
00:00:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is crazy how fast he got into pro ball, exploded, got to the majors, graduated. I mean, he has to be on a very short list of high school players at this stage. And now we've got another exceedingly young talent leading our top 100. I saw you were kind of contextualizing his age compared to, what was it, some 2020 players?
00:00:56
Speaker 2: Six high school players, Jesus Madej.
00:00:58
Speaker 1: I mean, no one is probably too surprised to have Jesus Madej in the number one spot. He's kind of always going to be the next up name. But, I mean, how exciting is Madej as a top 100 prospect leader?
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, he certainly fits as that elite future star type talent that you see at the top of a list. I don't know that he's going to end the year. Like, I don't think, well, I don't know that he will end the year as a top prospect in baseball he certainly has a good chance but i also don't think it's like oh wow he is miles ahead of everybody else now if he goes out and is like crushing double a this year as a 19 year old yeah maybe he separates himself against the triple a and all right now we're talking about him as that like maybe no doubt number one guy but i don't think he's in that tier right now but also i think this guy is a switch hitting Chance for shortstop. I don't know how it's going to work out in Milwaukee if he ends up playing third base, shortstop, second base. I got a lot of competition in that infield situation, but he'll play somewhere in the dirt. Great swing, both sides of the play. Ton of contact, knows the strike zone. Big time bat speed. He's gotten even stronger. He's hitting the ball even harder. It's a great athlete. Plus plus arm now, plus runner. tools, skills, athleticism, potential premium position guy already in AA. Like you said, 19 years old. He's younger than Gio Rojas, who's going to probably be a first-round pick this year out of high school. He's younger than Ian Ruiz, who's a really good switch inning shortstop, who maybe goes in the first round, probably will go somewhere in the top two rounds, high school player. in this year's draft. So, uh, yeah, he's, uh, he's, he's moving, he's moving fast. Yeah.
00:03:01
Speaker 1: I just went to pull up Jesus my days, um, stats so far this year and just like default Google search. The, one of the first things that pops up is a screenshot of you talking about Jesus.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: So that's kind of funny.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: Shout out to our SEO team. Yeah.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: Nice, nice job.
00:03:18
Speaker 1: Uh, and from the social team, Yeah, so far in 2026 at the AA level, he's hitting 257, 340, 400, three home runs, 15 stolen bases. Yeah, he's a very good player. Although, as I look at our current top 10, I feel like I'm only more confident in the fact that Rochelowski is going to slam into this list at a really good spot initially, just looking at some of the graduations and where Some of the top players from last year's class, like Kate Anderson and Seth Hernandez, are already at seven and eight on our top 100 list. I feel like Rock Jalowski has a case immediately for top five on this list. Our top five on our updated 100 is Jesus Madej with the Brewers at one, Leo DeVry with the A's at two, Colt Emerson with the Mariners at three, Walker Jenkins with the Twins at four, and then Max Clark with.
00:04:15
Speaker 2: The Tigers at five. I think Rock Jalowski.
00:04:19
Speaker 1: belongs basically in that mix or right after it pretty much immediately after he signs what say you.
00:04:25
Speaker 3: In the top 10 you'll probably have emerson graduate i would think well maybe not by the time he signs he pretty should though i anyway.
00:04:35
Speaker 1: Signing day this year is um july 27th so that's kind of the time we're looking at.
00:04:43
Speaker 3: By the end of the year you're gonna have colt emerson should graduate Trey Savage should graduate. Travis Bazana is going to graduate. And then you've got guys in AAA like Max Clark. Hopefully Walker Jenkins can just stay healthy and graduate. And Thomas White, too. So I do think there's going to be some other guys that push their way into that top 10. I think Franklin Arias with the Red Sox has a case to be, frankly, in that number one overall prospect conversation overall. with my day, I think like I said last time, I think it's a better prospect than Julio DeVry. So there's going to be some other guys that jump into that group, but, uh, yeah, I think, I think Rock Cholowski will be top 10 as soon as he, as soon as he signs with, uh, I think it's going to be the white socks between me and you. Yeah.
00:05:37
Speaker 1: I've still got him at, at number one with the white socks and our most recent mock that went up earlier on.
00:05:42
Speaker 2: Uh, on Monday of this week.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: Um, It just seems hard to envision that they go in another direction, although Grady Emerson's name continues to get a lot of steam with that pick, and I do think Grady Emerson is quite good. He might also start on this list at a pretty good spot. He's a tremendously talented prospect in his own right. If you're just looking at our current top 100, let's say you can fold Franklin Arias into the mix as well. How many players do you think you would take over Rock Jalowski to put in your farm system right now? Because I don't know that I would go more than... three I think I would put Rock Cholesky number four on our board right now I guess for me that's not factoring in like Franklin Arias being where you think he either should be now or will be but I probably would rather have him maybe this is recency by asking to me because I really do think Walker Jenkins and Max Clark are just really good players but the defensive component the shortstop profile along with the fact that I think Rock is going to be a similar hitter and power hitter to those two and I think Rock is probably going to be the best defender, like position agnostic best defender of that group, I wouldn't have him lower than four if I'm just throwing him into the list right now personally. And I maybe could convince myself to put him even higher than that.
00:07:02
Speaker 3: I'll say top 10 for right now. Coward's way out, Ben.
00:07:05
Speaker 2: Coward's way out.
00:07:07
Speaker 3: The other shortstop who is going to rocket up this list at some point, I don't know, top 10. I don't know where we're going to put him because he hasn't played all that long. with a Giants shortstop, Luis Hernandez, who they signed out of Venezuela for just like a tick under $ 5 million.
00:07:23
Speaker 1: He's also younger than all the guys in the 2027 class you're currently working on, right?
00:07:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's 17 years old. He turns 18 in December. So they just signed him this year. He's arguably the number one prospect internationally this year. For a lot of scouts, he was their number one player internationally. Wow. I mean, he is hitting over 400. He's got four home runs through his first 38 plate appearances.
00:07:52
Speaker 2: That's crazy.
00:07:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:07:54
Speaker 3: And for a guy too, who's not like nobody's going to confuse him for James Wood, right? Like he's five foot 10. It's like a Glaber Torres type body. And at 17 years old, he's already got four home runs in the complex league and it's, it's good. It's good power. It's good contact skills. It's a good swing, good approach. He's not all that fast, but he can defend the position pretty well at shortstop. Just a good internal clock, good game IQ, savvy, instincts, awareness, like all the things, no matter what kind of scout I think you are or what kind of evaluator you are, whatever you're looking for, whatever you're naturally drawn to, I think, other than just like raw foot speed, Luis Hernandez is going to excite you. Cause he just does so many things so well. Yeah.
00:08:53
Speaker 1: I mean, we have him currently 82 on the board.
00:08:58
Speaker 3: And that was with zero professional plate appearances also. Right. Yeah.
00:09:04
Speaker 1: And he's been a monster so far. I mean, it's, it's very early, but like he's wasted no time and kind of showing the talent and the upside that he has.
00:09:12
Speaker 2: So that's cool to see.
00:09:12
Speaker 1: It's always fun when, the guys who are billed as like the top international players just live up to those expectations. Cause there's so much uncertainty as to like what they're actually going to be when we get to see them. Um, and he has been tremendous. So, uh, more good shortstops is never a bad thing.
00:09:29
Speaker 3: Some good track record in recent years with Luis Hernandez, Ethan Salas, Leo Devery, um, some, some big time international players coming through and looking, looking good early. Yeah.
00:09:46
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:09:47
Speaker 2: What else we got going on today, Ben?
00:09:49
Speaker 3: I did see your mock draft. What did you think? Good? Bad? Very interesting to me. uh i i think there was a lot of a lot of names in there that probably would expect to see not that you were like out there trying to surprise people or anything but i think it's interesting to talk through some of these teams some of these players who seem like they are rising up boards uh some guys maybe who we would have expected to be higher a month ago who are going to teams maybe in the 20s that maybe are saying oh we didn't think this guy's gonna be here right yeah with our pick in fact like i it's every year i mean it's it's no different than any other year but talk to teams that are picking in the 20s about players like oh yeah like at the beginning of the season there's no way this guy's gonna.
00:10:45
Speaker 1: Chase Laviolette last year to the guardians, like 26 or whatever it was. Yeah.
00:10:49
Speaker 3: Yeah. And then sometimes they become available and they're like, Oh, actually we don't like them here either. So there's a reason he's available here. So, but I think, look, obviously you had Rock Cholowski at one that feels like kind of an obvious one to me. What about, so the Rays pick at two this year, I think they're a pretty interesting team just because we don't, We know the Rays' historical tendencies. Obviously, they make a lot of trades. You can see the type of prospects that they gravitate toward. We never see them picking this high in the draft. It does seem like, okay, let's say Rock Cholowski goes one. Is Grady Emerson just kind of the obvious guy here? Or do you think Von Lackey or somebody else could be in consideration here or is making it, making it a close call.
00:11:49
Speaker 1: It feels more like the former, the latter to me, it feels like Grady is just kind of the most obvious name. I've heard it described by multiple people to me recently kind of working on this mock draft and even for previous mock drafts that like, it feels like the Rays are just going to take whichever rock or Grady, the White Sox don't take. And yeah, for the last three mocks that we've had, it's, it's always been rock going one. And so it feels like Grady almost feels like the automatic too. I do think Von Lackey is the, the only other like really major name in that conversation. Like I've heard the Rays have been scouting Jacob Lombard. It makes sense to scout Jacob Lombard, but I also just don't get the sense that they would take the risk of a Jacob Lombard when you have a Grady Emerson, uh, Sitting there, I feel like there's probably a lot more comfort. Again, this is some speculation here at this point, but I would imagine there's more comfort in the left-handed hitting Grady Emerson. The Rays seem to really like left-handed hitting short stops in particular. They've taken a lot of those profiles in recent years. I kind of get conflicting feedback on whether or not teams think the Rays would actually do Von Lackey. They haven't taken a ton of catchers. especially high up. I mean, you mentioned they don't really tend to pick that high in the draft, but they've certainly taken a lot more shortstop capital in the past in this range than catching. Maybe that's kind of drilling down too specifically into the demographics because you're bound to have more shortstop options in any draft than catching options. But yeah, I do just kind of feel like Rock and Grady are the top players in this class. And there's some margin between those two and then Von Lackey, who's still quite good. And I think a pretty clear number three, especially if you're just like, we're going to take a hitter at the top.
00:13:38
Speaker 3: I'm sure there are Rays fans, quite a few Rays fans, who don't forget that they took Tim Beckham ahead of Buster Posey when they had the opportunity to back in the day. Do you think most teams would have Grady Emerson ahead of Von Lackey, or do you think it's pretty tightly distributed between the two of them?
00:14:02
Speaker 2: Um, I feel like a majority would have Grady or Von Lackey.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: Um, yeah, I think that once you drill down into hit tools and the offensive components of those two players, I would be surprised if there were many teams who were like, yeah, we really like Von Lackey's hit tool better than Grady Emerson's at this stage in his career. And so if you feel really comfortable with Grady's swing and think about the power that he could get to in the future, as he gets a little bit more physically mature, um, Grady feels just like a safe high school player in the way that... I feel like it's very uncommon for high school players to feel that sort of safety. I've talked a lot about how I feel like Von Lackey is maybe the highest floor player in this class.
00:14:47
Speaker 3: I don't know.
00:14:47
Speaker 1: Grady Emerson has a lot of ways to create value on the field as well. And so I don't feel like it is some conversation where you're having a upside versus floor conversation or high risk.
00:14:59
Speaker 2: Like Grady Emerson.
00:15:01
Speaker 1: He doesn't feel like a high-risk player in any sense of that word or phrase. And so just given how his pure hitting ability is talked about, the swing, the bat speed, the barrel accuracy, the fact that he hits left-handed versus right-handed, I imagine most teams would view him higher. If I thought the opposite, we probably would have Von Lackey ranked two, and we've had Grady Emerson kind of entrenched in the number two spot on the board for what the entirety of this draft.
00:15:29
Speaker 2: Cycle kind of feels like. I can pull up our list and see, but it feels like that's the case.
00:15:34
Speaker 3: There are just very few holes you can poke into the game with Grady Emerson other than just saying, okay, well, this spring he's not facing a lot of great competition. But we saw him face a lot of really good competition last summer with Wood Bats. He's on Team USA. It's just a really easy– natural fluid left-handed swing great barrel control great accuracy with the barrel just really polished approach and then there is yeah there's bat speed in there too when he wants to let it loose you can see the power that's gonna just i think tick up even more as he gets stronger as he uh as as his approach evolves as he gets into his 20s and gets closer to the big leagues and then yeah shortstop too like if you compare him to Jacob Lombard, you can make the case that Lombard's raw tools are better. A little louder, a little flashier. Yeah, and I would take... I think Grady Emerson is also a major league shortstop. I think Lombard would be the better defensive shortstop, but also.
00:16:38
Speaker 1: What do you think is the separator for them defensively? Do you think it's range, arm strength, athleticism, kind of all of the above? Because I do think both have plus arms. I think Both of them get the ball across the field in a pretty impressive way to me. But when I see Jacob move in the field, it does feel like a more fluid, dynamic mover. I feel like he has the ability to maybe get to a higher upside defender than Grady, who I view as more of like a very reliable, steady type defender.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, just like a tick more quick twitch explosiveness to him to go with just a very polished, instinctive style. of play too but offensively and i like jacob lombard a lot but just literally comparing number one and number two high school players in the country grady emerson makes more contact than jacob lombard does so yeah um yeah i'd be uh if i'm picking two and i'm the raise i'd be very happy to take grady emerson there.
00:17:40
Speaker 1: So grady i'm looking back at our rankings at least as far back as february of 2025 he ranked as the top high school player in the class he's never really fallen out of that spot. I don't know when your first ranking he.
00:17:53
Speaker 3: Was number 26 was.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: So he is another one of those just wire to wire. Ever since we ranked anyone, he's been the number one player in the class. He's always performed like it. He's never wavered from that position. The only time he's ranked number two is when we merged the list with high school and college and rock has been one in every iteration of the ranking since July, 2025 was looks like our first combined board. Um, And those guys have been 1-2 the whole time, and it feels like they're just continuing to show that. So it does, to me, feel like they're in kind of their own tier this year.
00:18:25
Speaker 3: He would have gone first if he was in the 2026– or sorry, in the 2025 high school class. In fact, I think I even said when he was a sophomore that I would take him over any player in the 2024 class. I would not say that right now. Connor Griffin looks pretty good. Right.
00:18:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, because we had talked about Ethan Holiday, then we had branched out to talk about Grady Emerson versus those 2024 high schoolers as well that year. I remember that.
00:18:49
Speaker 3: All right, so the twins are picking third overall. Do you get the sense that they're just looking to take whoever is still there between Von Lackey and Grady Emerson, or do you think they're like, man, I really hope one of these two guys– Like either one was specifically one of them. Like, I really hope Grady Emerson is still there or we really want Vaughn Lackey at this pick.
00:19:19
Speaker 1: If they were both on the board, let's say like, let's say that like tomorrow I heard very compelling evidence to put like, oh, the Rays really want pitching. They're going to take Jackson floor on a deal at two. And so it goes Rock Cholowski, Jackson. I'm just making up this scenario, by the way. So don't, please don't run with this as if it's something real.
00:19:40
Speaker 2: I just want to create this scenario.
00:19:42
Speaker 1: So Rock Jalowski's one, Jackson Flora two, and the twins are picking at three, and they're deciding between Grady Emerson and Von Lackey. I would basically need to hear a lot more different information to not just put Grady Emerson there and feel pretty confident about it. Um, I feel like the twins like Grady Emerson quite a bit, and might even be.
00:20:05
Speaker 2: Really hoping he gets there. This is another situation, though.
00:20:08
Speaker 1: I just don't think these guys are going to slip in this year's draft for all the reasons we just talked about.
00:20:13
Speaker 2: They're just such well-rounded, compelling players.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: But yeah, the top three hitters in the class are just so consistently talked about at this range.
00:20:24
Speaker 2: I've heard that the Twins have been all over.
00:20:26
Speaker 1: Von Lackey throughout the spring, that's the guy that I have them tied to in this most recent mock. it feels like a pretty clear 1-2-3 at this stage right now. So, yeah, in that order, I would go Emerson and then Lackey for the Twins.
00:20:44
Speaker 3: Do you think there are other players who would be in, let's say it's Cholowski 1, Grady Emerson 2, do you think there would be other players in the mix? Do you think they would look at a Jacob Lombard or a Jackson Flora or somebody else maybe on an underslot? Maybe EJ Booth? comes into play here or some other college player or is it alright it's kind of a big three and whoever is the third guy ends up going to Minnesota.
00:21:12
Speaker 1: That feels the most likely, but I do think just like every team is going to have a wider net than just like three. Like Jackson Flores' name is a name that I've heard connected to the Twins. It would be hard to imagine that all these teams up in this range are scouting Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr., but the Twins aren't. So I imagine those players are also in play and being considered. I don't know this for sure, but I wonder if like for a lot of the teams picking in the top five, like I had, I had heard Drew Burris as a name mentioned as like a potential, whether it's a backup option or whether it's just like model heavy teams are super, super high on Drew Burris. So like if they just prefer him, like I wouldn't count him out entirely just because I've heard his name mentioned with teams picking in the top five and the twins would be a team that, that I would associate with like liking Drew Burris. That's more speculative and, I do think all these teams, again, have players they like who maybe they've used more backups if something happens weird in front of them or if they don't feel like they want to meet the price tag of whoever their top candidate is.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: All teams want to have those backups.
00:22:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I do feel like one of the top three hitters is most likely for the Twins right now.
00:22:21
Speaker 3: So it does feel like there's a big three in this draft?
00:22:25
Speaker 2: I think there is.
00:22:26
Speaker 3: I think.
00:22:28
Speaker 1: The way I was talking about it with JJ when we were talking about this is it feels like there's a group of six players who are unlikely to slide outside of the top 10, and those would be Rod Chlowski, Grady Emerson, Von Lackey. They feel like the top end of this grouping, and then the back half of this grouping feels like some combination of Jackson Flora, UC Santa Barbara, Jacob Lombard in Florida, and then Eric Booth Jr.
00:22:54
Speaker 3: In Mississippi.
00:22:55
Speaker 1: Those players feel very Very jammed into the top of this year's class. Like maybe there's a surprise pick. We have Gio Rojas mocked to the Royals right now. I don't think he's like in that group to the same degree. I just think the Royals really like Gio Rojas and would take him if they don't get a Jacob Lombard, for instance. But that's kind of how I'm viewing it right now. If you're really high on Jackson Flora, maybe you think he belongs right there with Lackey. If you're one of the teams really high on Lombard, maybe you would have him third. I do think there's probably not a clear consensus on how they're lined up. But right now, I view those top six as hard to envision a scenario where any of those players falls outside of the top ten right now to me, based on everything I've been hearing.
00:23:45
Speaker 3: So then if you're the Giants, you're picking at four. Are you... you have them taking Jacob Lombard in the high school shortstop from, from Miami area. Do you, do you think at the sense that they're really hoping that like, Hey, we really want Grady Emerson or, I mean, forget about rock Jalowski, frankly, like you're not getting him.
00:24:09
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I talked with when, as soon as they made this trade and people started floating over rock Jalowski at four to the giants, I was like, we immediately were like, okay, that's not going to happen. And then just reaching around and be like, Hey, I've, this is unrealistic, right? I heard from people who immediately said, yeah, that is not happening, referring to Rock getting to the Giants.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sure they do.
00:24:30
Speaker 1: If you're the Giants, Ben, and you're picking four or five, you're probably dreaming that something happens.
00:24:34
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Red Sox are hoping the same thing at the 20th overall. Right, right. But do you get the sense they're really hoping that we would love, we really want somehow for Grady Emerson or Von Lackey to slip here? Or is it like, Okay, like Jacob Lombard fits for, like, would be thrilled to get Jacob Lombard at four, or is there more of a fall off there?
00:25:01
Speaker 1: I think most teams would be thrilled to get Grady Emerson. Like, I'm not... Right. Yeah, like, I'm sure, like, there's probably an ideal world for them where those guys just slip for some reason and they get to them, but realistically, Jacob Lombard seems to be very much in play for them. I hear a lot of hitters connected with the Giants. Like, I don't know that Jackson Flora is not in consideration there, but I've heard that they'd be really into Von Lackey if he's available. So if he gets past the Twins at three, I've heard him as a potential fit there. And then if he's not, I mostly hear Jacob Lombard. I hear some Eric Booth mentioned with them. It's like the other players in this grouping not named Jackson Flora that I mostly hear associated with them.
00:25:44
Speaker 3: I would love for them to draft Jacob Lombard so that their low A infield next year can be Jacob Lombard, Luis Hernandez and Joshua Gonzalez just all shuffling between shortstop, second base, third base.
00:25:57
Speaker 1: I don't know that I would love that because I want all those guys to be playing shortstop all the time.
00:26:01
Speaker 2: But I see what you mean.
00:26:02
Speaker 1: It would be a pretty dynamic defensive alignment, however you drew it up. And maybe there is something to, even if you're like a lights-out shortstop playing some other positions and just throwing from different angles. I don't think that's going to hurt you necessarily. But I do like when guys can just stick at shortstop and play there regularly.
00:26:19
Speaker 3: Maybe push one on the high end. what do you think the trade does now now they got an extra pick it's what 29th 29th yeah i mean obviously it affects the fourth pick or do you think it just more so gives them the ability to add just another really good player at 29.
00:26:38
Speaker 1: Yeah i think it's more of that i mean they do add more bonus pull money everyone is trying to like concoct scenarios where they can force someone down the board to them but like everyone picking at the top of this draft is going to probably take what they view as the best player available. And the way the slot values are this year, I'll be really curious, like how many teams actually go to full slot value, but they're going to be bonus records broken. I would imagine even without pushing those. So it just creates a scenario where I feel like it's, if you're picking top five this year, it feels like that's too early to be playing. Signing bonus games, haircut games, trying to create savings. It does feel like there's enough of a tier break that you just take your favorite of whatever the top tier.
00:27:20
Speaker 2: Is on the board.
00:27:21
Speaker 1: And then later, once the like talent tier flattens out a bit, that's when you can start to see teams. getting more creative in how they're going to handle over slots, under slots. If you're going to push a player to a pick, I feel like that's much more likely for the Giants to happen at 29. In this mock draft, I have Logan Schmidt there. Logan Schmidt is a high school pitcher, left-handed pitcher out of California. I've heard that he's got plenty of possible landing spots really from the middle of the first round throughout the 20s, but this high school pitching demographic, we see it happen every year.
00:27:54
Speaker 3: This is.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: A demographic where a player can just put out a really big number and say, Hey, I'm going to go to school if I don't get this number. And whether or not that's like a faint to get them down to a deal they already have, or that's actually their number. And someone can afford that with their second pick or a team picking first, wouldn't want to pay X amount of money for a high school pitcher with their first pick. It's just a more commonly floated over slot scenario for teams in the draft. And so I think both on talent this year, with the high school pitching of this class, it's not just Schmidt. It's also Brody B. Mila, who you've seen the entirety of the spring. It's Gio Rojas. It's Coleman Borthwick. There's Sean Duncan. There are no shortage of high school arms that all teams are probably really excited about getting in the middle and back of the first round. And if you're a team with extra picks like the Giants now are, I think you just have a greater ability to get creative with your money and get those players signed at those picks. So that just feels like a more realistic scenario for how the Giants will use the extra pool space and the extra pick to add talent in this year's draft. And it's a good year to have extra picks in this range.
00:29:07
Speaker 3: You didn't want to reunite Teagan Coons with his old coach at Tennessee at that pick? Or is Teagan Coons moving?
00:29:14
Speaker 2: They might not get a shot.
00:29:15
Speaker 1: He might be kind of in between now. Tegan Coons, long Ben Badler fan of Tegan Coons. I mean, he's pitching like a first rounder. If he was the second college pitcher off the board right now, if he was the second pitcher off the board right now, I don't think that would be shocking. I've got two pitchers in front of them right now. Gio Rojas at six with the Royals and then Cole Carlone at 12.
00:29:40
Speaker 2: With the angels.
00:29:41
Speaker 1: I could see a realistic scenario where Rojas goes later. Someone is maybe a little too afraid about the Cole Carlone reliever risk. Tegan Coons keeps punching guys and goes up even further. We've got him at 15 right now. I feel like anywhere 10 to early twenties makes a lot of sense for his talent and how he's been performing. And if he keeps performing down the stretch, when we get into that 7 to 10 range, after that top tier I'm talking about is off the board, the one team that I've always, I have struggled to figure out who to put with them, the Athletics at 8, they are a team that I wouldn't be surprised at all if they wanted to go pitcher. And if Tegan Coons is the guy who just keeps posting down the stretch, is his talent out of place at number 8 if they want an arm?
00:30:27
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think so.
00:30:28
Speaker 1: What about you?
00:30:31
Speaker 3: It does seem, as much as I like him, it does seem high. But I could see whether it's him, maybe Cade Townsend.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Well, you see I have your other guy, AJ Gracia, at eight right now, and you're probably like, oh, you've got to take Gracia over.
00:30:46
Speaker 3: That's a good call. I can't argue that. What about the Royals pick at six and they pick at 30? We're not going to go over every.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: Single pick we'll save that for our pre-draft breakdown that we do that's been fun to do each year i also got in our draft chat this week i got another question talking about someone just kind of mentioned casually as if it was a known fact oh tyler bremner was a shocking pick at two for the angels that one that one um insults me personally i would say ben because i feel like we talked about tyler bremner with the angels all throughout last year's spring in the lead up to the draft And that one, every time I see that, I'm like, you clearly weren't reading our mocks last year, were you? I got to take our mock draft wins where I can get them.
00:31:31
Speaker 3: But the Royals do not pick the way the Angels do, safe to say. It does seem like they are leaning more high school than, not always, obviously. Like they took Jack Caglione. But it does seem like they're more of a maybe shoot for the moon type team.
00:31:51
Speaker 1: They're not a model team. is maybe the best way I could put it quickly. They are definitely a team that loves athleticism, tools, upside, not afraid of perceived riskier profiles. I mean, Brian Bridges, dating back to his time with the Braves, has been very happy to take high school pitchers with his first overall pick in the top 10 of the draft. So any number of left-handed pitchers here with this pick, Gio Rojas, Logan Schmidt, I'm not sure if Brody Bumila would make sense, but like all the left-handed pitchers in the class could fit for them either at six or later for the exact same reasons I just talked about with the Giants, the Royals picking at 30. I imagine one or multiple of those high school lefties are going to be available and on the board. They make sense at either of those picks.
00:32:39
Speaker 3: Those would be huge underslot deals, right?
00:32:42
Speaker 1: I would imagine so. Yeah.
00:32:43
Speaker 3: I mean, they might have them that high. Very high up their boards. But if you're taking one of those high school pitchers that high, I got to think you can get them for less than slot value and then move that pool of money around to later picks.
00:33:05
Speaker 1: Maybe a six under slot is similar, better money. Um, so you're just kind of like locking in that bonus. You're not dealing with the risk of, Oh, if you start sliding, then you get to a range where you're not going to get to the bunch.
00:33:15
Speaker 2: Like it could make sense from both parties.
00:33:16
Speaker 1: And it could be the case that Kansas city just has him at the very top of their board, but because of where he's going to go, they could get him for, for what they see as a really good value too.
00:33:25
Speaker 2: That could certainly be possible.
00:33:27
Speaker 1: I think if Jacob Lombard is here at six, like he's a no brainer for the Royals. Um, Same with Eric Booth. Like he could make a lot of sense. I wonder about them with some of these college runs. Cause I do think like, depending on how these college pitchers perform down the stretch, whether it's Coons, whether it's Cole Carlone, whether it's Mason Edwards shoving, like if these guys keep pitching and performing, they could also make some sense as a, a fit here. Like that wouldn't shock me. Um, maybe it would surprise me slightly, um, just given who I expect to the Royals have a chance at six, but yeah, I, I would associate Kansas city with almost all the pitchers in this class and just your like higher upside athletic type high school profiles. Generally. I think I actually have them with a college player at pick number 30. Um, Caden Sorrell at Texas A & M.
00:34:27
Speaker 2: He is, um, He is also more.
00:34:30
Speaker 1: Of a risky upside sort of college profile compared to some of the other college players in this range. There is some strikeout risk that you're going to have to stomach by taking him, but he does have this really exciting power, speed, center field upside that I wonder if they would be into as well.
00:34:49
Speaker 3: Do you think Jared Grimlinger, the two-way player in Southern California, previously the number one, I think it was two-player, maybe three-player in the 2027 high school class until he reclassed this year. Getting a lot of buzz for both his offensive ability and left-handed pitching ability. Do you think he could potentially even rise up this high, or could this be a little too soon?
00:35:14
Speaker 2: To the Royals?
00:35:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, to the Royals.
00:35:16
Speaker 1: I would be surprised if the Royals took him, but I don't think it's surprising if he got into this range on the board. I'm not sure if teams in the 7 to 10 range are on him super heavily, but starting with the Nationals at 11, I feel like every team from 11 to 20 is going to be really interested in him, particularly the model-heavy teams. I kind of get the sense that the teams highest on him actually prefer him as a hitter at this stage. I just think his contact skills, his history of basically never swinging and missing, and his age aren't really catapulting him up the boards of model heavy teams. So I've got him associated with teams like the nationals, the diamond backs, the guardians. And I actually have them off the board here at the red with the red socks. That almost feels like it's hard to say for certainty, like a true floor for a player. Cause you never know what can actually happen. But if, if Jared grindling or falls past the red socks at this point, it would be a little surprising both because like, I feel like they're really into him. and also because he has so many potential landing spots in front of that, it does feel like Jared Grinlinger and Trevor Condon are kind of the next high school hitters and, and however you want to classify Grinlinger. I'll be really interested in how Grinlinger is handled. I think whoever drafts him will probably let him continue the two way deal at the next level because he's just very talented at both. But I kind of, I wouldn't be shocked if, uh, the team's highest on him preferred him as a hitter. Um, do you prefer him one way or the other?
00:36:57
Speaker 3: Ben?
00:36:57
Speaker 1: Cause I actually think I prefer him as a pitcher, but I know you're the King of go do both. We like two way players.
00:37:03
Speaker 3: I prefer him to be a two way. I mean, just think about how many guys have been two way players at his age where we've thought, Oh, I like this guy on the mound more. And it turns out, Oh, actually he's a better hitter. And he's still, I mean, he just turned 17. Like, few minutes ago so.
00:37:23
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly how old josh hammond was but i imagine like josh hammond at this age i'm like oh he's definitely a pitcher and then throughout this next year at the same age or a little bit older it's like oh he's a hitter so you.
00:37:36
Speaker 3: Can also develop him as a two-way player it's not like he's a shortstop or a catcher okay let's you can put him as a cornerer out give him some reps out there just let him dh yeah frank like if he's gonna or play some first base maybe um if you want i do like the fact that he's not a.
00:37:58
Speaker 1: He's not playing a position that like demands a ton of throwing volume when he's not pitching that feels just more more appealing in a two-way player like a Like I'm not interested in a right-handed pitcher and catcher. I'm not super interested in like a shortstop and right-handed pitcher. Just like the volume of throwing you have to do on your non-pitching days seems like it's almost intolerably high to do at like a real level long term. But like with the caveat that like assume he's going to continue doing both, does one side or the other excite you more about him? Are you personally higher on him pitching or hitting?
00:38:37
Speaker 3: Maybe the pitching I'd lean toward because I think he has the case as the best left-handed pitcher in this class. I'd probably still lean toward Gio Rojas. He's also like two full years younger than Gio Rojas. Now that Gio Rojas has a better fastball, a longer track record, but Grinlinger's pitch ability is outstanding. He's up to 96 as a a kid who just turned 17 years old. He arguably has a better slider. He does have a better changeup. I mean, he's probably one of the best, probably the best pitching prospect, left-handed pitcher I've seen as a, when he was 16, probably since Thomas was, yeah.
00:39:20
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty compelling. I mean, the two-year age gap is significant. You've got Jared Greinlinger, 17.2, at the draft, Brody Bumela, 18.4 at the draft, and Gio Rojas, 19 at the draft, all kind of one after another on our current board. And then again, I don't think Logan Schmidt, 17.9 at the draft, is too far off that group at all.
00:39:42
Speaker 3: And I would probably prefer Logan Schmidt to both Greinlinger and Bumela.
00:39:49
Speaker 2: As pitchers personally, but.
00:39:53
Speaker 3: What about the Orioles picking at seven? We, uh, we do have some history of them picking this high, but it hasn't been recent. And I also don't feel like, I don't know, have they shown a type recently? Like I really like what they've done.
00:40:07
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:40:07
Speaker 3: Hitters, I guess it's fair to say, but very different. I mean, they took Vance Honeycutt with their first round pick a couple of years ago. Oh, yeah ike irish though hit well like their draft last year looks looks really strong so far do you see them so it sounds like probably some some hitter but also it doesn't seem like there's maybe a college guy lighting it up.
00:40:34
Speaker 1: Um well i do think they have especially if it happens like there's two pitchers taken in front of them i think they'd be pretty excited because it's just more hitters that are pushed down to them to take and again like We basically have no reason to think that the Orioles are going to scrap their pitching at the top draft philosophy. They've never taken a pitcher top 50, so picking seven, it just feels... I mean, maybe they really just love Jackson Flora and all the hitters they think are in the top tier go, and that changes things. It's impossible for me to say that's not going to happen.
00:41:08
Speaker 2: It just feels.
00:41:09
Speaker 1: like it's unlikely to happen. I've heard them connected with, with Eric Booth. If Jacob Lombard got there, I think Jacob Lombard will make a lot of sense for them as well. And then you get into this like second tier of college hitters where if AJ Gracia is available there, I think he, this maybe it's like the high point for AJ Gracia, the highest I could like think of him fitting. I think Drew Burris is a player who makes a lot of sense for the Orioles based on how they've drafted in the past. Like, I haven't heard them connected with Chris Akopian, but if they just viewed Chris Akopian as one of the better hit power combos in the class, that could make sense as well.
00:41:44
Speaker 3: Like all these about like an ace Reese and Mississippi state. Yeah.
00:41:48
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for where ace Reese is going to go because like a month ago I was hearing him connected more with teams in this range and then he cooled off and I think he's starting to heat back up again. But I do think like the Orioles have targeted left-handed hitting OBP power guys. And I think, I don't know if like the OPP, like how convinced you are in that, but he, the underlying contact quality for Ace Reese has been pretty loud all year. So if they were into either Reese or Hickopian, that wouldn't be surprising to me. Ryder Helfrich is another guy in this range that I think is interesting to think about because of his performance. And then again, not sure if like the Orioles in particular into this profile, but Tyler Bell is kind of a sneaky guy. player in this range. I think he's been such a strong performer and has a very safe defensive profile that I think a lot of teams who are picking kind of in this back of the 10 range or uncertain if they're going to get a chance at one of these elite players and are sorting through this muddled middle. I think Tyler Bell has been a player who's kind of tracking up just cause he keeps performing.
00:42:59
Speaker 2: He gets on base a lot.
00:43:00
Speaker 1: Um, everyone's probably going to love just the makeup and the way he competes to, to the extent that that moves the needle, um, for teams. Um, he, Tyler Bell just feels like a player that regardless of philosophy, whether you're a model heavy team, whether you're kind of a really scouting heavy team, traditional scouting sort of team, like Tyler Bell feels like he will appeal to a broad swath of clubs. And I do feel like he's getting a lot of play in this seven to 16 range. We got them right in the middle. with the Cardinals right now, but it wouldn't shock me if he was in the mix higher than that.
00:43:36
Speaker 3: But you have the Orioles in this version of the mock draft taking EJ.
00:43:40
Speaker 1: Booth, right? Yeah.
00:43:41
Speaker 2: I kind of buried the lead for a few minutes there, but yeah.
00:43:45
Speaker 3: You mentioned them, but just bringing it back up. So I like Booth. I think he's a good prospect. Sell me a little bit more on him because last summer, summer slash fall, probably mostly summer though, according to, you know, synergy sports, which tracks his, uh, you know, summer performance across different, uh, different summer tournaments and showcase events. He hit two 50, four Oh six, three 69. And you look at him, you're like, okay, well, he clearly has a lot of bat speed. He clearly has a lot of raw power. Is it a very, very strong human being, very powerful, very explosive. He can run, um, very little swing and miss draws walks yeah but also there are some questions about how does that it's not like a traditional textbook swing no right so what at what has teams sold on him because it does seem like there are a lot of teams that are sold on him going somewhere in the top 10.
00:44:48
Speaker 1: Yeah i think that that eric booth just has one of the better combinations of Tools and upside potential in the class. I think there is a lot of confidence in the contact skills that you mentioned, being able to allow him to make the swing changes he might need to make moving forward to better tap into.
00:45:09
Speaker 2: That power that he has. It is an unconventional look.
00:45:13
Speaker 1: I've heard nothing but positive things about the strides that he's made with the swing mechanics and bat path this spring, if teams buy into that.
00:45:22
Speaker 2: There's a lot to like.
00:45:23
Speaker 1: He's 18 at the draft. He's younger than both of the other high school players in this top tier with him by either a few months or almost a year if you're comparing him to Jacob Lombard. All these guys are going to be 18 at the draft, though. It's a premium defensive profile. He's an elite runner. He's been a consistent 80-grade runner in the past. If he slows down, maybe he's a 70-grade runner. He's pretty physical and strong. So maybe you could say that he goes a little bit backwards speed wise, but he could give a grade in speed and still be an impact runner who you project to stick in center field. And then I think there's just a lot of excitement about what he could become offensively given the bat speed that you mentioned, given sort of his innate hand-eye coordination and contact skills. If you're an organization who thinks, yeah, like we can take all these ingredients, we can take these components and we can help him figure out a more consistent swing or a swing that will allow him to maybe get the ball in the air more consistently. Cause I do think in the past, he's been a little bit slappy, a little bit oppo oriented, kind of this like slap and dash type runner. But outside of that, like if you feel like the swing is either malleable or you don't mind the aesthetics of the swing in the first place, it's a lot to like, like the only tool that, that he doesn't really have at a high level is a throwing arm. And I think for most players, but especially for center fielders, like the throwing arm is probably the tool you're least interested in.
00:46:52
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:46:53
Speaker 1: Like he's a fringy thrower. Even if he's always a fringy thrower, he could still be a plus defender. I don't think he's a plus defender now, but I think he has all the tools and athleticism to become that in center field. And I think at a certain point, like that's a lot to like right there.
00:47:10
Speaker 3: Um, I don't know.
00:47:12
Speaker 1: You think you just wish he would perform more? I guess I was, uh, as a showcase player a year ago.
00:47:18
Speaker 3: I just think for me as like a top 10 pick top 10 overall pick, that's where I want to feel more conviction in that. Whereas like a guy, I think he's going to have to make some adjustments with his swing. He does a lot of things that I love.
00:47:32
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you, but I also think that like any hitter you name after that has the same thing in this year's class. Like I know you're higher on AJ Gracia, so maybe that's a separate for you. You probably think like AJ Gracia is like ready-made now. I have as much concerns about the swing with Gracia as I would with Booth. And I'm a little concerned that AJ Gracia is not hitting the ball harder than he has been this year. I think with guys like with Chris Akopian, huge defensive questions, athleticism questions with Drew Burris. he's got the size questions. How does the swing translate at the next level? Very pull oriented. Now with Derek Curiel, like with Derek Curiel, you could say that EJ Booth has like better tools than him across the board. Like maybe you just prefer Derek Curiel swing with ace Reese. It's like very questionable defensive profile. There's hit tool risk with Trevor Condon. You don't have the same sort of physicality or power upside there. I don't think with Jared Grindlinger, you don't have the premium profile. Like, Like if Justin LeBron was going out and performing, I would say, yeah, take Justin LeBron over him. He's got a much more conventional swing. He's going to be an elite defender at shortstop. He's got power speed combination. He's got track record in college, but he doesn't. Like he's so going to miss a lot. I just think like if you can name a hitter after EJ Booth that you feel more confident in with a similar profile, I think teams would love that because there'd be one more player for them to pick from at the top. But I think that's probably why he's separated a little bit. Maybe it's a little class-specific for him.
00:49:07
Speaker 3: Talk to me about the Braves. They're picking 9th and 26th this year. Who did they get the 26th pick for? That was a PPI?
00:49:20
Speaker 1: That's for drake baldwin winning drake baldwin yeah.
00:49:22
Speaker 3: All right so they got yeah so that's that's a nice little bonus for them two picks there they haven't picked top 10 since what shay langoliers when they were picking, yeah.
00:49:34
Speaker 1: They also picked a second one in the 20th and got shoemake that draft. So it's funny that the last time they picked top 10, they also had like a second pick in this range too.
00:49:42
Speaker 3: So what do you, what are you seeing? What do you think the Braves will do? Man, the top 10 this.
00:49:49
Speaker 1: Year, I feel like the Braves almost feel like the biggest wild card in the draft because they're picking in a range where the board opens up. They're also a team that has a track record of, being willing to take high school pitchers. So it's not like it's where the Orioles where you can feel okay, like eliminating two whole demographics and then like narrowing down your focus on which of the hitters you think they're interested in. Like, would you be surprised that the Braves took a high school pitcher at nine? I might be a little bit surprised, but you only have to look at their draft history to see that like, they're willing to do that. They're willing to take underslot players with their first pick and push money down the board later. Whether or not that's the strategy they do at 9 and 26 specifically, I'm not sure. Maybe they just take whoever they think is the best player on the board. At 9, they play the underslot game with their 26 pick, and then they can push money to high school players who are deeper sleeper guys and try and find the next Eric Hartman later in this year's draft. I have a lot of uncertainty about what the Braves will do. I've heard them linked to hitters like Chris Akopian, who we have with them in this mock draft now, hitters like A.J.
00:51:00
Speaker 2: Gracia.
00:51:02
Speaker 1: Drew Burris would make a lot of sense for them. I've heard them connected with high school pitching. I've heard them connected with college pitching. Kate Townsend is a name that I've heard linked with them a ton. That could be either for their ninth pick or their 26th pick, depending kind of on how Kate Townsend and the other pitchers in the class perform down the stretch. So this is like a huge swath of names and players who make sense to me. And I'm not certain that I have like a great feel for what their preference might be at both of these picks at this stage.
00:51:35
Speaker 3: Do you think they could stay local and drew Burris could be a fit in this area for them? Yeah.
00:51:40
Speaker 1: He can make a ton of sense. Why not? Um, yeah, he, he makes as much sense to me as any of these college, like Hacopi and Gracia drew Burris. All of them make a ton of sense. They kind of fit in this range on talent in my mind, like Tyler bell as well. I know they were super shortstop heavy a year ago. Um, Tate South, it seems now off to a really great start. Do they want to draft another shortstop? Tyler Bell could make sense. I've heard like Justin LeBron kind of casually mentioned them. I don't know if he's a serious candidate there, but I'm sure entering the year when the Braves were picking ninth overall, they were kind of looking at like, oh man, what if Justin LeBron fell to us? Like now it feels like a very real possibility. They could take him if they still wanted to. Has Justin LeBron kind of played himself outside of this range? That's kind of a question that I don't, have a clear answer to because I think both the A's and the Braves and maybe even teams like the Royals would still kick the tires on a Justin LeBron.
00:52:35
Speaker 3: I mean, if you like Tate South a scene, I mean, it's very obviously different looking at a high school player versus a college guy. But if you like Tate South a scene, it's a guy who had some bigger moves with his swing, but a lot of bat speed, power, ability to impact the ball. Justin LeBron certainly has that and some.
00:52:56
Speaker 1: Was I thought you were going to go with Drew Burris. Drew Burris has some bigger moves to swing, also smaller.
00:53:02
Speaker 3: Burris does. Is it too early, or maybe it makes more sense with the next pick? Looking at another Georgia player, like a Trevor Condon high school outfielder, that does seem rich to me to go top 10, but maybe with the next pick.
00:53:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the thing that gets interesting here is if the Braves really do like Trevor Condon, they might have to take him. Because Trevor Condon, like Jared Grandlinger, has landing spots all throughout the teens. The highest I've heard Trevor Condon really seriously is at 15.
00:53:36
Speaker 2: To the D-backs.
00:53:37
Speaker 1: But I feel like after that, there are a ton of teams who are really interested in him. The Padres could make sense for him. The Tigers at 21 for the Padres, 22 for the Tigers. So the Braves are picking at 26 with their second pick. if they just find themselves in a situation where they don't like whoever's available for them at nine, and they think that Trevor Condon is in this mix of players that are viewed in a similar tier, but they really like Condon. If they wanted to try an underslot deal to get him and then get a high upside high school pitcher at 26, whether that's a Rojas or Bumila or Logan Schmidt or Jensen Hirschkorn or Coleman Borthwick, like that could be a scenario that makes sense. And I think this year, once you get to this eight to nine, 10 range, all those underslot deals could start coming into play with these teams.
00:54:28
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the Nationals picking 11th overall, first year under Paul Taboney and the new group that they have there. What are you hearing on the Nationals with their first round pick?
00:54:41
Speaker 1: Kind of similar, similar to the teams in front. A lot of college hitters. I hear linked to them. Drew Burris could make a lot of sense. Like it feels like they're going to operate in a similar way to other Red Sox have operated in the past, given the kind of brain trust they have there. Jared Greinlinger, maybe this is one of the earliest realistic spots for a guy like him. Yeah, we're kind of in the range now where all the same players are talked about. And it's like it starts to get very speculative in this range.
00:55:10
Speaker 3: There's like a certain type of player that you saw them target with the Red Sox. So you think Nationals fans should expect them to gravitate toward more in these drafts for the Nationals?
00:55:21
Speaker 1: I actually think they're, I would be a little bit surprised if it was a high school pitcher, but outside of that, I think they're open to a number of different profiles. I don't think there's like one specific one that I feel like they're definitely going to do at this stage.
00:55:33
Speaker 2: And it's hard to know too.
00:55:34
Speaker 1: It is, it is a new group. Like it's not just going to be, imagine copying paste what Boston has done, but no, I don't, I don't have a lot of clarity on that.
00:55:43
Speaker 3: Well, with, uh, I mean, they brought in the pirates, former scouting director too.
00:55:48
Speaker 1: Also with some Boston roots.
00:55:51
Speaker 3: Yep.
00:55:51
Speaker 1: And they were very high risk, high, high upside high school tech players.
00:55:56
Speaker 3: Seth Hernandez. Does that, I mean, it does, it does seem like there's a lot of different types of players that can be in play here for the nationals. I, yeah.
00:56:06
Speaker 1: Given, given the, The track record of the players that these decision makers have taken, both with the Red Sox and with the Pirates, it's hard to really eliminate any sort of profiles for them.
00:56:19
Speaker 3: But there is no Seth Hernandez in this draft.
00:56:22
Speaker 2: There is no Seth Hernandez in this draft.
00:56:23
Speaker 3: That is true. That is very true. He's doing all right. I don't know if you heard that, Carlos. Oh, yeah.
00:56:29
Speaker 2: I've been tracking him.
00:56:30
Speaker 1: I've been keeping up. He's been pretty good.
00:56:34
Speaker 3: Let's skip down a little bit here. Cause the next team that interests me that you have here is a Cincinnati Reds pick an 18th overall.
00:56:45
Speaker 1: Yeah. Good luck with my confidence on this one, Ben.
00:56:48
Speaker 3: Well, it does seem like they do have a history of just shooting for upside. Is that fair to say? Yeah, I think so.
00:56:57
Speaker 1: I mean, this is.
00:56:58
Speaker 3: Some, some risk maybe that other teams would.
00:57:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.
00:57:03
Speaker 1: I have a few Mila here, which is why Ben is talking about the risk and he feels like perhaps the riskiest player as a chance to go on the first round, maybe the riskiest player in the class, but obviously that comes with tremendous upside and really with Bumila placing him with teams. It's hard for me to find organizations that based on what they've done in the past would actually take a player like this. Like the, I could have easily put them with the Padres again. But I know that like every you've been to his games, like every team in the industry is scouting this guy super heavily and It's.
00:57:37
Speaker 3: A lot of scouts that I don't normally ever see at a Massachusetts game. I mean, obviously, you see the area scouts there at most of his games, too. But it's a lot of national cross-checkers, scouting directors, special assistant, guy whose job is to evaluate the best pitchers in the class job.
00:58:00
Speaker 1: Right. So everyone is scouting him. whether or not all these teams are scouting him for their first pick versus, Oh, they really would like to get him with their next pick.
00:58:10
Speaker 2: I think is the biggest question with Brody B Mila.
00:58:13
Speaker 1: And the one that is going to be the most difficult to answer in these mock drafts, because we just don't see teams take players that are this risky with their first pick. There are a small group of teams that I could like see it being more likely than others. The reds are probably one of those teams that, I could talk myself into any team taking him in this like 10 to 20 range because it seems like all those teams have had really like high level scouts there watching him. But when it actually comes down to it on draft day, the GM comes in the room is like, wait, we're taking a high school pitcher who doesn't really have a breaking ball right now, who's already had a really, really serious injury. Elbow procedure who we didn't see pitch at all last summer because of that.
00:59:01
Speaker 2: We're taking him with our first pick.
00:59:03
Speaker 1: No, we're not like I could see that conversation or something like it happening in a lot of draft rooms. Um, Um, it still wouldn't shock me at all. If Brody B Mila is in a Thomas white situation where he goes in the thirties and is paid like a first rounder. Uh, like I thought about putting him to the Marlins because they are a team who in recent history has taken multiple high school pitchers. early on um but it's just once we get into like that top 15 range i don't know ben it's just hard for me to see someone really doing it do you think you think there's a chance he actually goes top 15 you've you've seen him more than i have.
00:59:40
Speaker 3: I think i think somebody will pay him first round money i don't know that it'll be yeah that's.
00:59:47
Speaker 1: The first round that's why it's a nightmare for the mock yeah.
00:59:51
Speaker 3: So, yeah. So for the mock, yeah, it's tough. Cause I do think, yeah, it's probably, it could end up being something like Thomas White. And I think, I think Thomas White was better than Bermuda at the same age.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: I think so too.
01:00:04
Speaker 3: And I think Bermuda is really, I mean, Bermuda throws, he throws a hundred to one miles an hour from the left side. He's six foot nine. He gets great extension from a low release. I like all the traits that you want to obsess over that he has on his fastball. he's got, right? And he does have a good changeup too, right? It's not like he's just up there throwing fastballs only. No, it is a very fastball heavy.
01:00:28
Speaker 1: It's not a Thomas White changeup though, is it? Thomas White's changeup was really good.
01:00:32
Speaker 3: Thomas White had a great changeup. But Miller has a good changeup though. I mean, he holds a baseball and it looks like me holding a golf ball. I mean, it's just enormous hands. The ball just sinks into him. He throws it. He just gets a lot of sink on the on the pitch. It's, it's a really good pitch. Uh, probably scouts would like to see him throw it even more often, but if you're, you know, sitting 95 to 98 as a six foot nine left-handed pitcher facing Massachusetts high school hitters, like I get it. So, um, but yeah, more, the question is more is going to be on the breaking ball and he's not, I mean, he's not wild, but, um, like if you went out, I'd expect him to go out next year and, When.
01:01:21
Speaker 1: The zone shrinks a bit, it's going to need to corral the strikes a little bit more probably is what I would imagine.
01:01:26
Speaker 3: Probably like four-ish walks per nine innings, four to five I would expect next year if he goes out to low A. I mean, he loves pitching inside way more than most.
01:01:35
Speaker 1: I got to convert you to a walk rate guy rather than walks per nine.
01:01:40
Speaker 3: It's gross. Everyone knows what I mean. But yeah, I think that and just the track record where you're like, well, we could draft him or you could draft the other like many other high school pitchers or some college guys who are probably still on the board here who don't have that same medical track record that he has that creates some some durability risk.
01:02:07
Speaker 1: I think this will be the question that we continue to ask and wonder about and for me stress about 30 teams until we get.
01:02:15
Speaker 3: To draft day so Somebody, I think somebody will pay him as a first round pick. And it could be, I mean, it could be in the top 15 picks. Like you said, like if, I mean, the Royals love left-handed pitching. They're very much, I would say less risk averse than some other clubs. Maybe it goes like what, like it could be way under slot and still a really high bonus, obviously. Yeah.
01:02:42
Speaker 2: Slot value for that pick is 7.7 million.
01:02:44
Speaker 1: So.
01:02:45
Speaker 3: Yeah. So you could go there and then they have a, you know, more picks. Right.
01:02:50
Speaker 2: So like pick at 30.
01:02:51
Speaker 1: Yep.
01:02:51
Speaker 3: Yeah. So they could do a lot of damage that way. If they're like, Hey, we want Brody Bumilla, but he's not getting past, you know, X, Y, or Z team. We think it's picking in the twenties. All right. We take them there. And, um, I think that'd be very.
01:03:05
Speaker 1: Imagine Jacob Lombard is on the board and they take Brody Bumilla.
01:03:09
Speaker 3: Probably not. If Jacob Lombard is on the board, but yeah, maybe they, maybe they're looking at the board and saying like, all right, like who are the highest upside guys here? Like we're not enamored with any of these college hitters or these college arms, but we have, you know, Pamela here. We have another high school arm, you know, like a Coleman Borthwick or somebody else who they really like later in the draft and they get them there. So, yeah, it's just so it's a wide range of outcomes. I just know somebody is going to pay him a substantial amount of money somewhere in the draft this year.
01:03:46
Speaker 1: I agree.
01:03:48
Speaker 3: All right, what about the Guardians picking at 19 this year? So are they just going to take another big power, low contact guy like Jace Laviolette again? I don't know. That one's not looking great.
01:04:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, for them to go that again, maybe Jace would have to start picking it up a bit because as we sit here today recording, he is in high A hitting 196, 311, 392, 42% punch out rate. Not what you would want to see, but certainly comes with kind of the risk of what he showed us last spring. Probably speaks to how he was able to get to them in the first place. Yeah, I feel like, I mean, we're solidly in the range of speculation here with the Guardians, who they're going to take, who's going to be available to them. I think they could be another team that really looks into this high school pitching demographic, maybe the left-handed pitching demographic. In particular, another team that would make sense for a Grindlinger or a Condon if they were on the board. I do think Curiel just fits a lot of the traits they have historically prized, which is excellent ball skills, excellent basketball skills, barrel accuracy, left-handed hitting. And of the teams who have been fine to take players that have power questions, the Guardians would be near the top of that list. Other teams like the D-backs, Brewers maybe. I'm not sure if there are any other teams that have taken a lot of contact-oriented guys, but those are kind of the orgs that take those. So Curiel feels like a sensible pick for them.
01:05:26
Speaker 3: Left-handed bats, too. Yeah.
01:05:28
Speaker 1: And despite my Derek Curiel PR campaign, I don't hear his name talked about in the top 12 or so as much as I would like to hear it. So I think he could wind up in this sort of range on the board.
01:05:44
Speaker 3: What about like a Tyler Bell or an Ace Reese? Like the Guardians love their switch hitting shortstops like a Tyler Bell. I don't know if he's even still available there or Ace Reese too. Like, I mean, very different athlete than a Chase DeLauder, but like another physical left-handed hitting power college bat with track records.
01:06:10
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm trying to see when the last time that the guardians took a corner profile like that in the first round. So when you mentioned ace Reese, my first thought was like, that doesn't feel like a guardians sort of player. And like looking at their first round draft history, almost all of the hitters they've taken are either up the middle types, or I think all of them are up the middle types.
01:06:30
Speaker 3: Actually. It depends how you classify Ralphie Velasquez. I guess that's the one I was going to say.
01:06:34
Speaker 1: Like they drafted him as a catcher and probably wanted him to catch, but like Last year, Jace Laviolette, center fielder, Travis Pazana, second base, Ralphie Ketcher, Chase DeLauder, center fielder, Carson Tucker, shortstop, Bo Naylor, Ketcher, Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier, Tyler Naquin, Francisco. They just haven't taken a lot of corner profile. Like Bo Mills they took in 2007. That's going back a while. Yeah, Lewis Clark State, first round, first baseman. 2007, Bo Mills. I don't know if you remember that draft. I do.
01:07:07
Speaker 3: I remember writing Bo Mills scouting reports when he was in the Guardian system. Probably him and Nick Weglars and some other names. Some blasts from the past.
01:07:19
Speaker 1: 2007, I think I was in 8th grade. So I was not locked in on Bo Mills. So Ace Reese, when you mentioned him, maybe doesn't feel like a fit.
01:07:29
Speaker 2: But yeah, if Tyler Bell is.
01:07:30
Speaker 1: On the board, at 19, I think that would be a tremendous pick for the guardians. I don't know that that'll happen, but I get again, like once we get into this range, the volatility and the range of outcomes for all these guys is pretty wide.
01:07:46
Speaker 3: How about, how about like a Trevor Condon, maybe another left-handed hitting high school player who is a premium position guy, or I'll throw another, I'll throw two at you actually one, Tyler Spangler, left-handed hitting, shortstop in California. He's been slowed by a back injury this year. But prior to that, probably would have been in the mix and in this range, potentially. Stanford, commit. I don't know what's going to happen with him. I'd love to have him here if I was the Guardians. I'd be happy with him. Or I'll throw another one, too, just so you can have to answer like, three different questions at once. Aiden Ruiz, high school shortstop from New York, who he is old for the class, so that's not very Guardians-ish. But everything else about him is like, if he was Aiden Ruiz from the Dominican Republic, this is everything the Guardians would typically target. Switch hitting, shortstop, maybe not the most physical guy, but elite contact skill. They had a ton of switch hitting shortstops like that. Really great defender. Maybe I would say the best defensive shortstop in the high school class. What do you think of those names? I'm shoveling at you here.
01:09:13
Speaker 1: I think two of them make a lot of sense, and I think Adrian Ruiz would be very surprising to me because I almost think like the age– would just be a non-factor for them. Like 19.3, it's not just like he's slightly old for the class.
01:09:26
Speaker 2: He's pretty old.
01:09:27
Speaker 1: Like 19.3 at the draft is, I think that would be the oldest high school player that we've talked about today.
01:09:33
Speaker 3: He's older than Jesus Madej.
01:09:35
Speaker 1: He's older than Gio Rojas, who's 19 at the draft. He's older than Jacob Lombard, who's 18.8 at the draft. Actually, Colt Prosek, also 19 at the draft. Savion Sims, 19.1. Aiden Ruiz might be the oldest high school player that we have inside the top 100. And that just, that screams anti-Guardians to me, Ben. I don't know if you're going to slip that one past them.
01:10:00
Speaker 3: Does Jay Slavia let's scream Guardians?
01:10:03
Speaker 2: It's true. This is true.
01:10:04
Speaker 1: We have to, we had to set our expectations at the door when the draft happens. No, Condon, Condon would be a great fit.
01:10:11
Speaker 2: I would imagine. Who was the other player you mentioned?
01:10:13
Speaker 3: Tyler Spangler. I think that would be.
01:10:15
Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
01:10:16
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, the Spangler question is like, what is the price we're talking about now? Like, how does the Stanford commit affect things? How does the lack of just any sort of recent track record this spring impact how teams are going to make those decisions? I'm kind of with you, like in this year's class where there's a lot of uncertainty, where there's not a lot of hit tools you feel comfortable with. I feel like Tyler Spangler, I would be interested in him at any point from 10 to 20 on Pureland Talent alone profile. Like if he came out and looked like he did a year ago, we could be talking about a top four of high school players with Spangler and Lombard and Eric Booth Jr.
01:10:56
Speaker 2: And Grady Emerson.
01:10:57
Speaker 1: And like, those guys are going top 10. If he came out and was healthy, but it's just, it's hard for me to get a feel on what teams are going to do with him because he hasn't done anything this year. We've not heard his name mentioned a bunch. Like if someone still takes him at any point in this range, because we're so high on his pure talent, it wouldn't be surprising. It's just, there there's just pure question marks surrounding his status at this stage for me. All right.
01:11:21
Speaker 3: How about the Boston Red Sox picking right after them 20th overall, you have them taken two way player from California, Jared Grinlinger, left-handed pitcher and outfielder. Um, they seem like they've been very aggressive with pitching, uh, in recent years. Uh, do you see them? Do you think it's likely that, Hey, maybe like a, whether it's like a Tegan Coons, a Cade Townsend, one of these other college arms that you mentioned could be a fit for them here.
01:11:55
Speaker 2: Yep.
01:11:56
Speaker 3: Do you think Brody Bumilla could be possibility staying?
01:11:59
Speaker 1: Man, could you imagine if Brody Bumilla is on the board for the Red Sox, how much their fans are going to be like.
01:12:04
Speaker 2: Please take the 101 mile per hour left in a pitcher.
01:12:08
Speaker 1: I haven't heard Brody Bumila like, oh, definitely like he's in connection with the Red Sox. I also feel like all those names you mentioned in the college pitching side make a lot of sense given what they've done in the past. I feel like the Red Sox maybe are more excited about Jared Greinlinger because of his contact ability and hitting than the pitching, if I had to guess.
01:12:26
Speaker 2: But he is, I.
01:12:28
Speaker 1: Think Greinlinger has been maybe as heavily associated with the Red Sox as any player team connection that I've heard.
01:12:35
Speaker 2: At this point.
01:12:35
Speaker 1: And so it just feels like he's a real possibility for them. If he's still on the board, that said, I could see him going to pick in front to the guardians, 17.2 of the draft makes a ton of contact. Like we just talked about that, like they're left-handed hitters, but again, like other options for the red Sox at 20, like run the gamut. They're probably like 10, 15 different players. You could mention we're, we're fully in speculation territory here.
01:12:58
Speaker 3: We'll speculate away. Um, G, What type of college hitters, then, if they are in this range, could they be looking at?
01:13:09
Speaker 2: I mean, who knows? They could be into all sorts of them. I mean, I don't feel like.
01:13:19
Speaker 2: I mean, who are the college hitters in this range?
01:13:22
Speaker 1: Like, if a Curry L gets here or a Tyler Bell gets here, that could make sense.
01:13:26
Speaker 2: Like, would they take a shot on.
01:13:29
Speaker 1: One player we haven't talked about at all today that I feel like is right in this range is Zion Rose, actually. Outfitter with Louisville. I have no idea if the Red Sox are really into this profile or not, but I feel like Zion Rose has been getting a lot of helium. He's been performing. He has this speed-power combination. The performance has been excellent. He's not playing centerfield because it just happens to be a really good defensive centerfielder on his team in Lucas Moore, but I think whoever drafts Zion Rose and it feels right now, like he's definitely going to go inside the first round. We'll undoubtedly run him out at center field. So maybe that's a possibility. If you're looking at college hitters, you start to kind of run out of college bats in this range. For me, guys like Caden Sorrell with Texas A & M, Aiden Robbins with Texas has been really impressive. Looking further down the board, like guys who may be sneak into this first round range, Logan Hughes with Texas Tech, Chase Brunson, With TCU, maybe it's a Daniel Jackson at Georgia. These are all guys I could see in the back of the first round, but with Boston at 20, it feels like maybe towards the higher end of where I would expect those players to go. Let's see if there's another name. I kind of wonder about Carson Tinney. Again, purely kind of going through names that I could see coming in this range. Carson Tinney, just huge power from the catcher position. Probably a pretty good chance to stick at catcher, but you're going to have to tolerate some hit risk. I feel like there are a lot more high school bats who would make more sense than some of these college hitters I'm naming, though.
01:15:03
Speaker 3: About right after them, San Diego Padres picking 21st overall. You did not have them with a high school player. No, I was foolish. I don't know what you're thinking on that, but you do have them with a very high-risk player with Justin LeBron, shortstop at Alabama. I mean, I don't know what to do with Justin LeBron at this point.
01:15:31
Speaker 2: That's part of the reason he's there at 21 to the Padres, truthfully.
01:15:34
Speaker 1: It's like, yes, I do not think that right-handed hitting college player screams San Diego Padre to me. But I also just think of like, if Justin LeBron gets to this range, do I think the Padres would be a team that takes a shot on his upside? Yeah, I do think they maybe could be. part of it is also like, I don't want to just keep putting Brody B. Miller to the Padres every time in the sense that I'm not trying to convey like confidence in a pick more than I actually believe it.
01:16:09
Speaker 3: And also, he's also not available. Exactly.
01:16:12
Speaker 1: In this scenario, I have him going a little bit earlier. Um, but like, I have heard that like the Padres are like, obviously didn't expect him to be available here, but they're kind of doing their due diligence, uh, and making sure that if he does get to them, they're, in a position to make a good decision. Um, yeah, Justin LeBron is like the college version of these riskier high school types. Like the Brady B Mila of the college side does feel like it's just Justin LeBron because tools and upside, he belongs in the first 10, but the performance does not warrant going that high. And so like how far he actually slides, I think is a real question. Like, I think, Like I thought about him with the Marlins. Like I've heard some, some chatter about that potentially making some sense, but really no one seems confident in either. Like, like a is Justin LeBron going to get to you. And like, if he does get to you, is that something that you're excited about or scared about? So, I mean, maybe it's a situation. Does he fall all the way to a team like the brewers who've just scooped up guys like this in the past when they've slid down the board? Garrett Mitchell was one of those. He had a lot of risk with a lot of tools. There was another player that slid to the Brewers. Was it just Bryce Durang? I feel like they've kind of scooped up a lot of these guys who have slid down.
01:17:38
Speaker 3: I was going to say like Jace Laviolette was a guy who slid down. Like Vance Honeycutt was a guy who was high early, slid down. So like, oh, are you buying low or are you catching a falling knife? Exactly.
01:17:52
Speaker 1: I think that is going to be a conversation that teams are having with Justin LeBron. They've been having it. They'll continue to have it. I think he's got to be one of the scarier players in this draft you're taking inside of the first round because there's just considerable hit risk here. But when you see Justin LeBron on the right day, he looks like a potential superstar.
01:18:14
Speaker 3: If you just see the highlights, it looks great. That's crazy. Dealing with the Padres and Brody Pamela. I would not be shocked if they drafted him. I also would not be surprised if they said, you know what? We took a high school pitcher who is a different situation because he got hurt and then didn't come back before the draft. But they took Dylan Lesko in the first round. That one has not worked out well.
01:18:41
Speaker 1: They offloaded the risk a little, but I guess they were not selling high on Dylan Lesko when they traded him.
01:18:47
Speaker 3: Dylan Lesko is not looking great right now.
01:18:50
Speaker 1: Now. Don't remind me, Ben.
01:18:52
Speaker 3: Cruz Schoolcraft, they took a six-foot, I guess he's only six-foot-eight maybe, so maybe a little shorter.
01:18:59
Speaker 1: Puny compared to Bumilla, yeah.
01:19:00
Speaker 3: To Bumilla, who also is lacking some feel for a breaking ball. He's also, look, it's only like a month into his career. The strikes have not been very good. We'll see what happens there.
01:19:14
Speaker 1: He's walking more batters than he's struck out so far in his first six starts in low A.
01:19:17
Speaker 3: I also would not be surprised if they said, you know what? Maybe we go a different direction this time.
01:19:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. I mean, I got Trevor Condon at 22 right behind the Padres. That's another one that makes a ton of sense for them, actually, given some of the players they've They've taken to the past. Let's see if they're in yet.
01:19:39
Speaker 3: Like a Logan Schmidt, maybe. Coleman Borthwick, big physical power arm from high school.
01:19:47
Speaker 1: The other guys of interest, like a Cole Prosek, Bo Lawrence. I'm not sure if they would be into or not into Aiden Ruiz. Would an Aiden Ruiz of the Padres shock you? I don't think so.
01:20:03
Speaker 3: He's not– they usually go for a little bit more physicality.
01:20:05
Speaker 2: Like physicality, yeah.
01:20:07
Speaker 3: But he's good.
01:20:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seeing if there are any other hitters in this range, like any other high school hitters in particular that would make sense.
01:20:17
Speaker 2: I feel like there's a name that.
01:20:19
Speaker 3: How about Tyler Spangler? There's your physical high school.
01:20:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think of Tyler Spangler with them for whatever reason. Yeah, maybe– I mean, Bo Lawrence is an interesting one. I think Bo Lawrence– He's a guy who we didn't actually have in this mock draft, but could go anywhere from 15-ish to 40. I know there are a lot of teams that are just enamored with his left-handed hitting power potential, and he's also been, I think, better than seems expected defensively. Not that you're going to draft Bo Lawrence for defense. You're drafting him because you think he can be a middle-of-the-lineup masher.
01:20:53
Speaker 3: How about Sean Duncan, lefty from Canada?
01:20:57
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, throw him into that left-handed pitching demographic. Expect him to potentially go in a pretty good spot, too.
01:21:04
Speaker 3: Do you think Gio Rojas could slide all the way down here? It feels unlikely, right? Somebody's going to scoop him.
01:21:10
Speaker 1: Up for him. I mean, never say never. Cam Caminiti, I feel like we heard him talked about far higher than where he went. He slid to 23 to the Braves. So, like, you should never be surprised if a high school pitcher slides a little bit. And I guess sliding Gio Rojas going at, like, 21, 22, I don't think that's, like, crazy off where we view his talent. I would be a little surprised just because I've heard a lot of teams in front of the Padres really into him. He's pitched really well. Maybe the best high school pitcher in the class. But yeah, that can make sense too.
01:21:47
Speaker 3: Which other teams that we haven't hit on yet that might interest you in the 20s? Or maybe somebody else. We've got Tigers, Cubs, Mariners, Brewers. Mets are going to probably be picking a lot higher next year, I imagine, than 27. Astros, Cardinals have a gazillion picks this year to work through.
01:22:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Cardinals are probably the most interesting team that you just mentioned.
01:22:18
Speaker 2: How they.
01:22:20
Speaker 1: Operate is going to be fun to see. Luke Williams at 32 might be a little bit higher. for where Luke Williams is most likely to go. But I think the Cardinals are probably one of the most likely teams to take a profile like Luke Williams this year. I mean, he's like huge.
01:22:37
Speaker 2: Tools, huge upside, athleticism, a lot of hit risk.
01:22:42
Speaker 1: But I think when you're the Cardinals and you're picking, let's see, they're picking first at 13. You've got $ 16. 6 million of total pool money. Then you're picking 32, 50, 68, 72, and 83. So you've got six picks in the first 83. If the Cardinals wanted to get a little creative here and make sure they secured some players they're really into, they have the ability.
01:23:07
Speaker 3: To do that.
01:23:07
Speaker 1: So I think they're one of the, like after we get outside of the top 10, the Cardinals are probably the most interesting team to monitor their draft and just see how they attack it.
01:23:16
Speaker 2: I've heard them associated with like all sorts of high.
01:23:19
Speaker 1: School hitting profiles and throughout the spring, whether that would be like a Luke Williams or a Bo Lawrence or a Taj Marchand. A lot of these like helium high school hitters. I wonder if they wind up with one or multiple of those types.
01:23:36
Speaker 3: Seems like, I mean, Lawrence is a different category, but it does seem like a lot of high school hitters who are risky, like high school hitters that have not performed well previously. but have a lot of, had a lot, have tools, have some explosiveness to, to what they do.
01:23:57
Speaker 1: I feel like if you have this many picks and you don't take on a little bit of risk for some upside, like what's the point in having all those picks?
01:24:04
Speaker 2: Would you really want to play it safe with six picks?
01:24:07
Speaker 3: Why not just take the best players? Why do you have to take on more?
01:24:13
Speaker 1: Well, they might think they're the best player. Yeah.
01:24:15
Speaker 3: They might think that that's all right. That's true. Um, Yeah, I don't know. Some of those guys are.
01:24:21
Speaker 1: I don't know.
01:24:24
Speaker 3: I like guys that are a little bit more confident in the hitting ability.
01:24:28
Speaker 1: Well, unfortunately, that list runs out at like five this year, so.
01:24:33
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't think that's true. You don't think we have good hitters in this range still? Yeah, guys do. We don't have the same level of tools.
01:24:40
Speaker 2: You're having to sacrifice a lot of upside.
01:24:42
Speaker 1: Like, Jernad Vinkula, for instance, like, he's probably pretty confident in his pure hitting ability. He... makes a ton of contact, great track record, but you're, yeah, you're sacrificing the upside. So if you want to take, if you want to take on a little bit more upside, that's just kind of the calculation you're going to have to play most years. And then, you know, this year I think in particular, but I know I still like, like hit tools, like James Clark, Landon Tomei, Connor Como, Cole Prosek. Yeah. I think all those guys are more likely to go in front of Luke Williams and.
01:25:14
Speaker 3: Say like Ruiz, Noah Wilson. I mean, he has tools and can hit.
01:25:19
Speaker 2: I think there's some hit risk there too, though.
01:25:21
Speaker 3: With Wilson? Yeah. Fair.
01:25:23
Speaker 1: I think if there wasn't, we'd be talking about him in the first round pretty consistently.
01:25:28
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:25:28
Speaker 2: Because his tools are really loud.
01:25:31
Speaker 3: Good tools. I don't know. He's hitting about 748 in games I see him play. He's always performed every time.
01:25:41
Speaker 1: I'm Yeah, it's hard to not like those guys who always just do it for you.
01:25:45
Speaker 2: The Kevin Parada story.
01:25:50
Speaker 3: Okay.
01:25:51
Speaker 1: I think I'm kind of out of bullets here on the mock draft, Ben. So if you guys want more, probably just go read it.
01:25:57
Speaker 2: But it was fun to talk through.
01:25:58
Speaker 1: It with you.
01:25:59
Speaker 2: What's the craziest pick that I had.
01:26:01
Speaker 3: In this one?
01:26:03
Speaker 2: Or what's the pick that you liked the most?
01:26:05
Speaker 3: Out of the whole mock draft? Take your pick, yeah.
01:26:08
Speaker 1: I didn't have Tyler Spangler here, so you can't take that one.
01:26:11
Speaker 3: I would say the craziest one is probably, uh, the Cardinals taking Luke Williams at 32. Um, yeah, that one would, uh, that would be very high in my estimation. Um, I could, maybe somebody does it, but, uh, and you might, yeah. So again, you, you might be right on the pick. That seems that would be a great outcome. I think for, for him. Um, Which one did I like the most? Yeah.
01:26:43
Speaker 2: I mean, Aiden Ruiz probably.
01:26:46
Speaker 3: In terms of value for the team?
01:26:48
Speaker 1: However you want to break it down.
01:26:50
Speaker 3: Yeah. You got Yankees taking Aiden Ruiz at 35. I would like that pick. I don't know. Yankees are doing some good things in the Northeast. Ben Rice is leading Major League Baseball in OPS. Wow. Cam Schlittler is... He's going to be in the Cy Young conversation this year. So they're making some good decisions there.
01:27:15
Speaker 1: You know who's second in OPS in the league? Mickey Moniak.
01:27:21
Speaker 3: Wow. Just the way the Phillies drew it up. Cool. Maybe Carson Bolamon at 31. I don't know what to do with the Diamondbacks. I don't know what to do with Carson Bolamon. Cause it seems like he's.
01:27:37
Speaker 2: Been, I loved him last summer.
01:27:38
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:27:39
Speaker 3: I still like him a lot. I just don't know what, it seems like it's been some, some ups and downs more than you would have expected.
01:27:44
Speaker 1: Yeah. It just feels like the velocity has not really been there to the level that teams anticipated or hoped, but I don't think he's pitched poorly. I think it's just more of a question of like how much power is there with Beaumont that has caused him to get passed up by some other high school pitchers in this class. He's certainly not slinging one-on-one out of the left hand like some I mean, like one, I think. Yeah, you know the guy who I don't understand why he's not talked about higher is Coleman Borthwick. I have him 34 to the Pirates out of South Walton High in Florida. Coleman Borthwick, I think, is just a monster. And he's dominating on both sides of the ball this spring. He's like a legitimately good hitter and athlete in high school. infielder at least I'm fully in on him as a pitcher at the next level but he's been up to 100 miles per hour he has a filthy breaking ball he throws strikes he's got a change up he's physical like maybe the delivery is a little odd but I if this guy went in the middle of the first round on talent I could completely buy it I'm surprised we don't hear his name more Uh-huh.
01:29:01
Speaker 3: As in more in the first round?
01:29:03
Speaker 1: I'm surprised I don't hear his name more in the first round. Like, oh, this team is considering Coleman Borthwick at X range. Like, I almost always hear him at the back of the first and in the comp. He's constantly talked about in the comp. But, like, Joe Rojas getting mentioned in the middle of the first, Brody Bumila, Logan Schmidt. I don't think Coleman Borthwick is a different tier of talent than those guys. He just throws right-handed. Tell me why I'm wrong.
01:29:28
Speaker 3: I don't think you're wrong. I think he belongs in the same group. I think left-handed pitching gets overrated. I'm not saying it's not valuable, but sometimes the gap of people's perception of how much more valuable a lefty is or what level of stuff you need to have as a lefty compared to a righty gets exaggerated when you have a high school right-handed pitcher who's, like you said, has thrown 100 with a lot of strikes, repeats the delivery, has a flashing a plus slider or two.
01:30:00
Speaker 1: It's, do you know what I also like too? There is some, I think he has tremendous baseball IQ. And I also think that there was, so he came out earlier this spring throwing lighter, right? He was like low nineties, not showing a lot of velocity, just reach around and talking to some scouts about that. Like I wasn't too concerned about it. And part of the reason why I wasn't too concerned about it is because I had talked to scouts who knew that like, apparently the game plan was, for Borthwick this spring was he's playing on both sides of the ball. They're a very good high school team with deep post-season aspirations, and they knew it was going to be a long season. And I'd heard that, like, Borthwick was like, okay, I'm going to kind of ease into the season, not going to, like, unload all my velocity early on. Like, he was pacing himself in his high school season, and now we're seeing the velocity.
01:30:53
Speaker 2: Like, he's consistently in the mid-to-upper 90s. He touched 100, and.
01:30:58
Speaker 1: One of the last few weeks on his outings, like I feel like that speaks to a level of maturity with a high school pitcher that I'm just pretty impressed by. Like his ability to hold back when he's got a bunch of scouts with radar guns behind him is impressive to me. The fact that he's throwing his hardest velocity deep into the season, I think just as like a testament to his arm talent and the strength that he has. I also feel like he has one of the best combinations of current power and and command in this class like he really can throw strikes at a high level i feel like the knocks against him are he's a little bit bigger maybe like there are some physical concerns with how big he is i don't share them personally but i could understand if you did and then he's right-handed outside of that i don't really like what's the knock on him.
01:31:49
Speaker 3: I don't i don't even think there is one i don't even think those are knocks.
01:31:53
Speaker 1: So what's so what's a knock that Is there an element of his game that you feel like I am too bullish on or that I, like, do you think there's a question about a third pitch?
01:32:04
Speaker 3: Like, are you less excited about the changeup? Yeah, maybe changeup is one, but just the fact that he's a high school pitcher is the bigger one. But yeah, like you said, he just threw in the state semifinals, I think it was yesterday. It was up to 98. Got the W for him.
01:32:22
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been one of the most impressive two-way players in high school baseball this year. So I just feel like he's he's going to be a monster in pro ball. And I don't know, for whatever reason, it does feel like if you're a high school righty, that conveys more risk than a high school lefty. Like teams seem to tolerate, like you said, either value or tolerate the risk of a lefty more than a righty for whatever reason. It's a.
01:32:48
Speaker 3: I would not be surprised if he goes somewhere in the back of the first round, but I also think a lot of these high school pitchers that we're talking about in consideration for that back half of the first round range will end up going somewhere in the comp round and still getting paid pretty good. But there's also a lot of teams that will just say like, let's take a bat or a college arm with our first pick and then with our next pick somewhere in the 30s or 40s or maybe 50s, then we'll then we'll go shopping for an arm like, you know, whether it's Borthwick or Logan Schmidt or, you know, maybe somebody like a Savion Sims or a Caden Wachter, one of those type of guys.
01:33:32
Speaker 1: Cool. That's pretty in-depth coverage of our mock today. Yeah. I don't think I have anything else to add. Do you have anything to chime in on or mention before we get out of here, Ben?
01:33:44
Speaker 3: No. Looking forward to your next mock.
01:33:47
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:33:48
Speaker 2: I'll have to make some calls.
01:33:50
Speaker 1: I don't know.
01:33:51
Speaker 2: I need to see when that's supposed to come out.
01:33:54
Speaker 1: We're in the middle of draft preview production now, so probably in a couple weeks, maybe three weeks from now. I think early June we've got another one coming. So I guess I've got more of a month or so. That'll be nice.
01:34:08
Speaker 3: All right.
01:34:09
Speaker 1: We'll see if Rock Chilowski is still sitting in the pole position on our next one. Probably will be.
01:34:17
Speaker 3: All right.
01:34:17
Speaker 1: Thanks, guys, for hanging out. Thanks for listening to the show. Appreciate it. Thanks for supporting BA, as always. Yeah, and for Ben, I'm Carlos. We'll see you guys next time.
01:34:26
Speaker 3: So long.
Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to future projection. This is episode 187 of the show. I am Carlos Glazo joined by Ben Battler as always.
00:00:08
Speaker 2: What's up, Ben?
00:00:08
Speaker 1: How you doing?
00:00:09
Speaker 3: We've got a new number one prospect in baseball, Carlos Jesus, my day with the brewers on 19 year old switch hitting shortstop and double a sayonara to Connor Griffin. We enjoyed the 17 and a half minutes when you were a prospect eligible in the minor leagues. And, uh, Wish you luck on your future endeavors, sir.
00:00:32
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is crazy how fast he got into pro ball, exploded, got to the majors, graduated. I mean, he has to be on a very short list of high school players at this stage. And now we've got another exceedingly young talent leading our top 100. I saw you were kind of contextualizing his age compared to, what was it, some 2020 players?
00:00:56
Speaker 2: Six high school players, Jesus Madej.
00:00:58
Speaker 1: I mean, no one is probably too surprised to have Jesus Madej in the number one spot. He's kind of always going to be the next up name. But, I mean, how exciting is Madej as a top 100 prospect leader?
00:01:12
Speaker 3: Yeah, he certainly fits as that elite future star type talent that you see at the top of a list. I don't know that he's going to end the year. Like, I don't think, well, I don't know that he will end the year as a top prospect in baseball he certainly has a good chance but i also don't think it's like oh wow he is miles ahead of everybody else now if he goes out and is like crushing double a this year as a 19 year old yeah maybe he separates himself against the triple a and all right now we're talking about him as that like maybe no doubt number one guy but i don't think he's in that tier right now but also i think this guy is a switch hitting Chance for shortstop. I don't know how it's going to work out in Milwaukee if he ends up playing third base, shortstop, second base. I got a lot of competition in that infield situation, but he'll play somewhere in the dirt. Great swing, both sides of the play. Ton of contact, knows the strike zone. Big time bat speed. He's gotten even stronger. He's hitting the ball even harder. It's a great athlete. Plus plus arm now, plus runner. tools, skills, athleticism, potential premium position guy already in AA. Like you said, 19 years old. He's younger than Gio Rojas, who's going to probably be a first-round pick this year out of high school. He's younger than Ian Ruiz, who's a really good switch inning shortstop, who maybe goes in the first round, probably will go somewhere in the top two rounds, high school player. in this year's draft. So, uh, yeah, he's, uh, he's, he's moving, he's moving fast. Yeah.
00:03:01
Speaker 1: I just went to pull up Jesus my days, um, stats so far this year and just like default Google search. The, one of the first things that pops up is a screenshot of you talking about Jesus.
00:03:14
Speaker 2: So that's kind of funny.
00:03:15
Speaker 3: Shout out to our SEO team. Yeah.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: Nice, nice job.
00:03:18
Speaker 1: Uh, and from the social team, Yeah, so far in 2026 at the AA level, he's hitting 257, 340, 400, three home runs, 15 stolen bases. Yeah, he's a very good player. Although, as I look at our current top 10, I feel like I'm only more confident in the fact that Rochelowski is going to slam into this list at a really good spot initially, just looking at some of the graduations and where Some of the top players from last year's class, like Kate Anderson and Seth Hernandez, are already at seven and eight on our top 100 list. I feel like Rock Jalowski has a case immediately for top five on this list. Our top five on our updated 100 is Jesus Madej with the Brewers at one, Leo DeVry with the A's at two, Colt Emerson with the Mariners at three, Walker Jenkins with the Twins at four, and then Max Clark with.
00:04:15
Speaker 2: The Tigers at five. I think Rock Jalowski.
00:04:19
Speaker 1: belongs basically in that mix or right after it pretty much immediately after he signs what say you.
00:04:25
Speaker 3: In the top 10 you'll probably have emerson graduate i would think well maybe not by the time he signs he pretty should though i anyway.
00:04:35
Speaker 1: Signing day this year is um july 27th so that's kind of the time we're looking at.
00:04:43
Speaker 3: By the end of the year you're gonna have colt emerson should graduate Trey Savage should graduate. Travis Bazana is going to graduate. And then you've got guys in AAA like Max Clark. Hopefully Walker Jenkins can just stay healthy and graduate. And Thomas White, too. So I do think there's going to be some other guys that push their way into that top 10. I think Franklin Arias with the Red Sox has a case to be, frankly, in that number one overall prospect conversation overall. with my day, I think like I said last time, I think it's a better prospect than Julio DeVry. So there's going to be some other guys that jump into that group, but, uh, yeah, I think, I think Rock Cholowski will be top 10 as soon as he, as soon as he signs with, uh, I think it's going to be the white socks between me and you. Yeah.
00:05:37
Speaker 1: I've still got him at, at number one with the white socks and our most recent mock that went up earlier on.
00:05:42
Speaker 2: Uh, on Monday of this week.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: Um, It just seems hard to envision that they go in another direction, although Grady Emerson's name continues to get a lot of steam with that pick, and I do think Grady Emerson is quite good. He might also start on this list at a pretty good spot. He's a tremendously talented prospect in his own right. If you're just looking at our current top 100, let's say you can fold Franklin Arias into the mix as well. How many players do you think you would take over Rock Jalowski to put in your farm system right now? Because I don't know that I would go more than... three I think I would put Rock Cholesky number four on our board right now I guess for me that's not factoring in like Franklin Arias being where you think he either should be now or will be but I probably would rather have him maybe this is recency by asking to me because I really do think Walker Jenkins and Max Clark are just really good players but the defensive component the shortstop profile along with the fact that I think Rock is going to be a similar hitter and power hitter to those two and I think Rock is probably going to be the best defender, like position agnostic best defender of that group, I wouldn't have him lower than four if I'm just throwing him into the list right now personally. And I maybe could convince myself to put him even higher than that.
00:07:02
Speaker 3: I'll say top 10 for right now. Coward's way out, Ben.
00:07:05
Speaker 2: Coward's way out.
00:07:07
Speaker 3: The other shortstop who is going to rocket up this list at some point, I don't know, top 10. I don't know where we're going to put him because he hasn't played all that long. with a Giants shortstop, Luis Hernandez, who they signed out of Venezuela for just like a tick under $ 5 million.
00:07:23
Speaker 1: He's also younger than all the guys in the 2027 class you're currently working on, right?
00:07:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's 17 years old. He turns 18 in December. So they just signed him this year. He's arguably the number one prospect internationally this year. For a lot of scouts, he was their number one player internationally. Wow. I mean, he is hitting over 400. He's got four home runs through his first 38 plate appearances.
00:07:52
Speaker 2: That's crazy.
00:07:54
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:07:54
Speaker 3: And for a guy too, who's not like nobody's going to confuse him for James Wood, right? Like he's five foot 10. It's like a Glaber Torres type body. And at 17 years old, he's already got four home runs in the complex league and it's, it's good. It's good power. It's good contact skills. It's a good swing, good approach. He's not all that fast, but he can defend the position pretty well at shortstop. Just a good internal clock, good game IQ, savvy, instincts, awareness, like all the things, no matter what kind of scout I think you are or what kind of evaluator you are, whatever you're looking for, whatever you're naturally drawn to, I think, other than just like raw foot speed, Luis Hernandez is going to excite you. Cause he just does so many things so well. Yeah.
00:08:53
Speaker 1: I mean, we have him currently 82 on the board.
00:08:58
Speaker 3: And that was with zero professional plate appearances also. Right. Yeah.
00:09:04
Speaker 1: And he's been a monster so far. I mean, it's, it's very early, but like he's wasted no time and kind of showing the talent and the upside that he has.
00:09:12
Speaker 2: So that's cool to see.
00:09:12
Speaker 1: It's always fun when, the guys who are billed as like the top international players just live up to those expectations. Cause there's so much uncertainty as to like what they're actually going to be when we get to see them. Um, and he has been tremendous. So, uh, more good shortstops is never a bad thing.
00:09:29
Speaker 3: Some good track record in recent years with Luis Hernandez, Ethan Salas, Leo Devery, um, some, some big time international players coming through and looking, looking good early. Yeah.
00:09:46
Speaker 1: Okay.
00:09:47
Speaker 2: What else we got going on today, Ben?
00:09:49
Speaker 3: I did see your mock draft. What did you think? Good? Bad? Very interesting to me. uh i i think there was a lot of a lot of names in there that probably would expect to see not that you were like out there trying to surprise people or anything but i think it's interesting to talk through some of these teams some of these players who seem like they are rising up boards uh some guys maybe who we would have expected to be higher a month ago who are going to teams maybe in the 20s that maybe are saying oh we didn't think this guy's gonna be here right yeah with our pick in fact like i it's every year i mean it's it's no different than any other year but talk to teams that are picking in the 20s about players like oh yeah like at the beginning of the season there's no way this guy's gonna.
00:10:45
Speaker 1: Chase Laviolette last year to the guardians, like 26 or whatever it was. Yeah.
00:10:49
Speaker 3: Yeah. And then sometimes they become available and they're like, Oh, actually we don't like them here either. So there's a reason he's available here. So, but I think, look, obviously you had Rock Cholowski at one that feels like kind of an obvious one to me. What about, so the Rays pick at two this year, I think they're a pretty interesting team just because we don't, We know the Rays' historical tendencies. Obviously, they make a lot of trades. You can see the type of prospects that they gravitate toward. We never see them picking this high in the draft. It does seem like, okay, let's say Rock Cholowski goes one. Is Grady Emerson just kind of the obvious guy here? Or do you think Von Lackey or somebody else could be in consideration here or is making it, making it a close call.
00:11:49
Speaker 1: It feels more like the former, the latter to me, it feels like Grady is just kind of the most obvious name. I've heard it described by multiple people to me recently kind of working on this mock draft and even for previous mock drafts that like, it feels like the Rays are just going to take whichever rock or Grady, the White Sox don't take. And yeah, for the last three mocks that we've had, it's, it's always been rock going one. And so it feels like Grady almost feels like the automatic too. I do think Von Lackey is the, the only other like really major name in that conversation. Like I've heard the Rays have been scouting Jacob Lombard. It makes sense to scout Jacob Lombard, but I also just don't get the sense that they would take the risk of a Jacob Lombard when you have a Grady Emerson, uh, Sitting there, I feel like there's probably a lot more comfort. Again, this is some speculation here at this point, but I would imagine there's more comfort in the left-handed hitting Grady Emerson. The Rays seem to really like left-handed hitting short stops in particular. They've taken a lot of those profiles in recent years. I kind of get conflicting feedback on whether or not teams think the Rays would actually do Von Lackey. They haven't taken a ton of catchers. especially high up. I mean, you mentioned they don't really tend to pick that high in the draft, but they've certainly taken a lot more shortstop capital in the past in this range than catching. Maybe that's kind of drilling down too specifically into the demographics because you're bound to have more shortstop options in any draft than catching options. But yeah, I do just kind of feel like Rock and Grady are the top players in this class. And there's some margin between those two and then Von Lackey, who's still quite good. And I think a pretty clear number three, especially if you're just like, we're going to take a hitter at the top.
00:13:38
Speaker 3: I'm sure there are Rays fans, quite a few Rays fans, who don't forget that they took Tim Beckham ahead of Buster Posey when they had the opportunity to back in the day. Do you think most teams would have Grady Emerson ahead of Von Lackey, or do you think it's pretty tightly distributed between the two of them?
00:14:02
Speaker 2: Um, I feel like a majority would have Grady or Von Lackey.
00:14:06
Speaker 1: Um, yeah, I think that once you drill down into hit tools and the offensive components of those two players, I would be surprised if there were many teams who were like, yeah, we really like Von Lackey's hit tool better than Grady Emerson's at this stage in his career. And so if you feel really comfortable with Grady's swing and think about the power that he could get to in the future, as he gets a little bit more physically mature, um, Grady feels just like a safe high school player in the way that... I feel like it's very uncommon for high school players to feel that sort of safety. I've talked a lot about how I feel like Von Lackey is maybe the highest floor player in this class.
00:14:47
Speaker 3: I don't know.
00:14:47
Speaker 1: Grady Emerson has a lot of ways to create value on the field as well. And so I don't feel like it is some conversation where you're having a upside versus floor conversation or high risk.
00:14:59
Speaker 2: Like Grady Emerson.
00:15:01
Speaker 1: He doesn't feel like a high-risk player in any sense of that word or phrase. And so just given how his pure hitting ability is talked about, the swing, the bat speed, the barrel accuracy, the fact that he hits left-handed versus right-handed, I imagine most teams would view him higher. If I thought the opposite, we probably would have Von Lackey ranked two, and we've had Grady Emerson kind of entrenched in the number two spot on the board for what the entirety of this draft.
00:15:29
Speaker 2: Cycle kind of feels like. I can pull up our list and see, but it feels like that's the case.
00:15:34
Speaker 3: There are just very few holes you can poke into the game with Grady Emerson other than just saying, okay, well, this spring he's not facing a lot of great competition. But we saw him face a lot of really good competition last summer with Wood Bats. He's on Team USA. It's just a really easy– natural fluid left-handed swing great barrel control great accuracy with the barrel just really polished approach and then there is yeah there's bat speed in there too when he wants to let it loose you can see the power that's gonna just i think tick up even more as he gets stronger as he uh as as his approach evolves as he gets into his 20s and gets closer to the big leagues and then yeah shortstop too like if you compare him to Jacob Lombard, you can make the case that Lombard's raw tools are better. A little louder, a little flashier. Yeah, and I would take... I think Grady Emerson is also a major league shortstop. I think Lombard would be the better defensive shortstop, but also.
00:16:38
Speaker 1: What do you think is the separator for them defensively? Do you think it's range, arm strength, athleticism, kind of all of the above? Because I do think both have plus arms. I think Both of them get the ball across the field in a pretty impressive way to me. But when I see Jacob move in the field, it does feel like a more fluid, dynamic mover. I feel like he has the ability to maybe get to a higher upside defender than Grady, who I view as more of like a very reliable, steady type defender.
00:17:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, just like a tick more quick twitch explosiveness to him to go with just a very polished, instinctive style. of play too but offensively and i like jacob lombard a lot but just literally comparing number one and number two high school players in the country grady emerson makes more contact than jacob lombard does so yeah um yeah i'd be uh if i'm picking two and i'm the raise i'd be very happy to take grady emerson there.
00:17:40
Speaker 1: So grady i'm looking back at our rankings at least as far back as february of 2025 he ranked as the top high school player in the class he's never really fallen out of that spot. I don't know when your first ranking he.
00:17:53
Speaker 3: Was number 26 was.
00:17:54
Speaker 1: So he is another one of those just wire to wire. Ever since we ranked anyone, he's been the number one player in the class. He's always performed like it. He's never wavered from that position. The only time he's ranked number two is when we merged the list with high school and college and rock has been one in every iteration of the ranking since July, 2025 was looks like our first combined board. Um, And those guys have been 1-2 the whole time, and it feels like they're just continuing to show that. So it does, to me, feel like they're in kind of their own tier this year.
00:18:25
Speaker 3: He would have gone first if he was in the 2026– or sorry, in the 2025 high school class. In fact, I think I even said when he was a sophomore that I would take him over any player in the 2024 class. I would not say that right now. Connor Griffin looks pretty good. Right.
00:18:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, because we had talked about Ethan Holiday, then we had branched out to talk about Grady Emerson versus those 2024 high schoolers as well that year. I remember that.
00:18:49
Speaker 3: All right, so the twins are picking third overall. Do you get the sense that they're just looking to take whoever is still there between Von Lackey and Grady Emerson, or do you think they're like, man, I really hope one of these two guys– Like either one was specifically one of them. Like, I really hope Grady Emerson is still there or we really want Vaughn Lackey at this pick.
00:19:19
Speaker 1: If they were both on the board, let's say like, let's say that like tomorrow I heard very compelling evidence to put like, oh, the Rays really want pitching. They're going to take Jackson floor on a deal at two. And so it goes Rock Cholowski, Jackson. I'm just making up this scenario, by the way. So don't, please don't run with this as if it's something real.
00:19:40
Speaker 2: I just want to create this scenario.
00:19:42
Speaker 1: So Rock Jalowski's one, Jackson Flora two, and the twins are picking at three, and they're deciding between Grady Emerson and Von Lackey. I would basically need to hear a lot more different information to not just put Grady Emerson there and feel pretty confident about it. Um, I feel like the twins like Grady Emerson quite a bit, and might even be.
00:20:05
Speaker 2: Really hoping he gets there. This is another situation, though.
00:20:08
Speaker 1: I just don't think these guys are going to slip in this year's draft for all the reasons we just talked about.
00:20:13
Speaker 2: They're just such well-rounded, compelling players.
00:20:18
Speaker 1: But yeah, the top three hitters in the class are just so consistently talked about at this range.
00:20:24
Speaker 2: I've heard that the Twins have been all over.
00:20:26
Speaker 1: Von Lackey throughout the spring, that's the guy that I have them tied to in this most recent mock. it feels like a pretty clear 1-2-3 at this stage right now. So, yeah, in that order, I would go Emerson and then Lackey for the Twins.
00:20:44
Speaker 3: Do you think there are other players who would be in, let's say it's Cholowski 1, Grady Emerson 2, do you think there would be other players in the mix? Do you think they would look at a Jacob Lombard or a Jackson Flora or somebody else maybe on an underslot? Maybe EJ Booth? comes into play here or some other college player or is it alright it's kind of a big three and whoever is the third guy ends up going to Minnesota.
00:21:12
Speaker 1: That feels the most likely, but I do think just like every team is going to have a wider net than just like three. Like Jackson Flores' name is a name that I've heard connected to the Twins. It would be hard to imagine that all these teams up in this range are scouting Jacob Lombard and Eric Booth Jr., but the Twins aren't. So I imagine those players are also in play and being considered. I don't know this for sure, but I wonder if like for a lot of the teams picking in the top five, like I had, I had heard Drew Burris as a name mentioned as like a potential, whether it's a backup option or whether it's just like model heavy teams are super, super high on Drew Burris. So like if they just prefer him, like I wouldn't count him out entirely just because I've heard his name mentioned with teams picking in the top five and the twins would be a team that, that I would associate with like liking Drew Burris. That's more speculative and, I do think all these teams, again, have players they like who maybe they've used more backups if something happens weird in front of them or if they don't feel like they want to meet the price tag of whoever their top candidate is.
00:22:13
Speaker 2: All teams want to have those backups.
00:22:17
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I do feel like one of the top three hitters is most likely for the Twins right now.
00:22:21
Speaker 3: So it does feel like there's a big three in this draft?
00:22:25
Speaker 2: I think there is.
00:22:26
Speaker 3: I think.
00:22:28
Speaker 1: The way I was talking about it with JJ when we were talking about this is it feels like there's a group of six players who are unlikely to slide outside of the top 10, and those would be Rod Chlowski, Grady Emerson, Von Lackey. They feel like the top end of this grouping, and then the back half of this grouping feels like some combination of Jackson Flora, UC Santa Barbara, Jacob Lombard in Florida, and then Eric Booth Jr.
00:22:54
Speaker 3: In Mississippi.
00:22:55
Speaker 1: Those players feel very Very jammed into the top of this year's class. Like maybe there's a surprise pick. We have Gio Rojas mocked to the Royals right now. I don't think he's like in that group to the same degree. I just think the Royals really like Gio Rojas and would take him if they don't get a Jacob Lombard, for instance. But that's kind of how I'm viewing it right now. If you're really high on Jackson Flora, maybe you think he belongs right there with Lackey. If you're one of the teams really high on Lombard, maybe you would have him third. I do think there's probably not a clear consensus on how they're lined up. But right now, I view those top six as hard to envision a scenario where any of those players falls outside of the top ten right now to me, based on everything I've been hearing.
00:23:45
Speaker 3: So then if you're the Giants, you're picking at four. Are you... you have them taking Jacob Lombard in the high school shortstop from, from Miami area. Do you, do you think at the sense that they're really hoping that like, Hey, we really want Grady Emerson or, I mean, forget about rock Jalowski, frankly, like you're not getting him.
00:24:09
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, I talked with when, as soon as they made this trade and people started floating over rock Jalowski at four to the giants, I was like, we immediately were like, okay, that's not going to happen. And then just reaching around and be like, Hey, I've, this is unrealistic, right? I heard from people who immediately said, yeah, that is not happening, referring to Rock getting to the Giants.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm sure they do.
00:24:30
Speaker 1: If you're the Giants, Ben, and you're picking four or five, you're probably dreaming that something happens.
00:24:34
Speaker 3: I'm sure the Red Sox are hoping the same thing at the 20th overall. Right, right. But do you get the sense they're really hoping that we would love, we really want somehow for Grady Emerson or Von Lackey to slip here? Or is it like, Okay, like Jacob Lombard fits for, like, would be thrilled to get Jacob Lombard at four, or is there more of a fall off there?
00:25:01
Speaker 1: I think most teams would be thrilled to get Grady Emerson. Like, I'm not... Right. Yeah, like, I'm sure, like, there's probably an ideal world for them where those guys just slip for some reason and they get to them, but realistically, Jacob Lombard seems to be very much in play for them. I hear a lot of hitters connected with the Giants. Like, I don't know that Jackson Flora is not in consideration there, but I've heard that they'd be really into Von Lackey if he's available. So if he gets past the Twins at three, I've heard him as a potential fit there. And then if he's not, I mostly hear Jacob Lombard. I hear some Eric Booth mentioned with them. It's like the other players in this grouping not named Jackson Flora that I mostly hear associated with them.
00:25:44
Speaker 3: I would love for them to draft Jacob Lombard so that their low A infield next year can be Jacob Lombard, Luis Hernandez and Joshua Gonzalez just all shuffling between shortstop, second base, third base.
00:25:57
Speaker 1: I don't know that I would love that because I want all those guys to be playing shortstop all the time.
00:26:01
Speaker 2: But I see what you mean.
00:26:02
Speaker 1: It would be a pretty dynamic defensive alignment, however you drew it up. And maybe there is something to, even if you're like a lights-out shortstop playing some other positions and just throwing from different angles. I don't think that's going to hurt you necessarily. But I do like when guys can just stick at shortstop and play there regularly.
00:26:19
Speaker 3: Maybe push one on the high end. what do you think the trade does now now they got an extra pick it's what 29th 29th yeah i mean obviously it affects the fourth pick or do you think it just more so gives them the ability to add just another really good player at 29.
00:26:38
Speaker 1: Yeah i think it's more of that i mean they do add more bonus pull money everyone is trying to like concoct scenarios where they can force someone down the board to them but like everyone picking at the top of this draft is going to probably take what they view as the best player available. And the way the slot values are this year, I'll be really curious, like how many teams actually go to full slot value, but they're going to be bonus records broken. I would imagine even without pushing those. So it just creates a scenario where I feel like it's, if you're picking top five this year, it feels like that's too early to be playing. Signing bonus games, haircut games, trying to create savings. It does feel like there's enough of a tier break that you just take your favorite of whatever the top tier.
00:27:20
Speaker 2: Is on the board.
00:27:21
Speaker 1: And then later, once the like talent tier flattens out a bit, that's when you can start to see teams. getting more creative in how they're going to handle over slots, under slots. If you're going to push a player to a pick, I feel like that's much more likely for the Giants to happen at 29. In this mock draft, I have Logan Schmidt there. Logan Schmidt is a high school pitcher, left-handed pitcher out of California. I've heard that he's got plenty of possible landing spots really from the middle of the first round throughout the 20s, but this high school pitching demographic, we see it happen every year.
00:27:54
Speaker 3: This is.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: A demographic where a player can just put out a really big number and say, Hey, I'm going to go to school if I don't get this number. And whether or not that's like a faint to get them down to a deal they already have, or that's actually their number. And someone can afford that with their second pick or a team picking first, wouldn't want to pay X amount of money for a high school pitcher with their first pick. It's just a more commonly floated over slot scenario for teams in the draft. And so I think both on talent this year, with the high school pitching of this class, it's not just Schmidt. It's also Brody B. Mila, who you've seen the entirety of the spring. It's Gio Rojas. It's Coleman Borthwick. There's Sean Duncan. There are no shortage of high school arms that all teams are probably really excited about getting in the middle and back of the first round. And if you're a team with extra picks like the Giants now are, I think you just have a greater ability to get creative with your money and get those players signed at those picks. So that just feels like a more realistic scenario for how the Giants will use the extra pool space and the extra pick to add talent in this year's draft. And it's a good year to have extra picks in this range.
00:29:07
Speaker 3: You didn't want to reunite Teagan Coons with his old coach at Tennessee at that pick? Or is Teagan Coons moving?
00:29:14
Speaker 2: They might not get a shot.
00:29:15
Speaker 1: He might be kind of in between now. Tegan Coons, long Ben Badler fan of Tegan Coons. I mean, he's pitching like a first rounder. If he was the second college pitcher off the board right now, if he was the second pitcher off the board right now, I don't think that would be shocking. I've got two pitchers in front of them right now. Gio Rojas at six with the Royals and then Cole Carlone at 12.
00:29:40
Speaker 2: With the angels.
00:29:41
Speaker 1: I could see a realistic scenario where Rojas goes later. Someone is maybe a little too afraid about the Cole Carlone reliever risk. Tegan Coons keeps punching guys and goes up even further. We've got him at 15 right now. I feel like anywhere 10 to early twenties makes a lot of sense for his talent and how he's been performing. And if he keeps performing down the stretch, when we get into that 7 to 10 range, after that top tier I'm talking about is off the board, the one team that I've always, I have struggled to figure out who to put with them, the Athletics at 8, they are a team that I wouldn't be surprised at all if they wanted to go pitcher. And if Tegan Coons is the guy who just keeps posting down the stretch, is his talent out of place at number 8 if they want an arm?
00:30:27
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think so.
00:30:28
Speaker 1: What about you?
00:30:31
Speaker 3: It does seem, as much as I like him, it does seem high. But I could see whether it's him, maybe Cade Townsend.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Well, you see I have your other guy, AJ Gracia, at eight right now, and you're probably like, oh, you've got to take Gracia over.
00:30:46
Speaker 3: That's a good call. I can't argue that. What about the Royals pick at six and they pick at 30? We're not going to go over every.
00:30:55
Speaker 1: Single pick we'll save that for our pre-draft breakdown that we do that's been fun to do each year i also got in our draft chat this week i got another question talking about someone just kind of mentioned casually as if it was a known fact oh tyler bremner was a shocking pick at two for the angels that one that one um insults me personally i would say ben because i feel like we talked about tyler bremner with the angels all throughout last year's spring in the lead up to the draft And that one, every time I see that, I'm like, you clearly weren't reading our mocks last year, were you? I got to take our mock draft wins where I can get them.
00:31:31
Speaker 3: But the Royals do not pick the way the Angels do, safe to say. It does seem like they are leaning more high school than, not always, obviously. Like they took Jack Caglione. But it does seem like they're more of a maybe shoot for the moon type team.
00:31:51
Speaker 1: They're not a model team. is maybe the best way I could put it quickly. They are definitely a team that loves athleticism, tools, upside, not afraid of perceived riskier profiles. I mean, Brian Bridges, dating back to his time with the Braves, has been very happy to take high school pitchers with his first overall pick in the top 10 of the draft. So any number of left-handed pitchers here with this pick, Gio Rojas, Logan Schmidt, I'm not sure if Brody Bumila would make sense, but like all the left-handed pitchers in the class could fit for them either at six or later for the exact same reasons I just talked about with the Giants, the Royals picking at 30. I imagine one or multiple of those high school lefties are going to be available and on the board. They make sense at either of those picks.
00:32:39
Speaker 3: Those would be huge underslot deals, right?
00:32:42
Speaker 1: I would imagine so. Yeah.
00:32:43
Speaker 3: I mean, they might have them that high. Very high up their boards. But if you're taking one of those high school pitchers that high, I got to think you can get them for less than slot value and then move that pool of money around to later picks.
00:33:05
Speaker 1: Maybe a six under slot is similar, better money. Um, so you're just kind of like locking in that bonus. You're not dealing with the risk of, Oh, if you start sliding, then you get to a range where you're not going to get to the bunch.
00:33:15
Speaker 2: Like it could make sense from both parties.
00:33:16
Speaker 1: And it could be the case that Kansas city just has him at the very top of their board, but because of where he's going to go, they could get him for, for what they see as a really good value too.
00:33:25
Speaker 2: That could certainly be possible.
00:33:27
Speaker 1: I think if Jacob Lombard is here at six, like he's a no brainer for the Royals. Um, Same with Eric Booth. Like he could make a lot of sense. I wonder about them with some of these college runs. Cause I do think like, depending on how these college pitchers perform down the stretch, whether it's Coons, whether it's Cole Carlone, whether it's Mason Edwards shoving, like if these guys keep pitching and performing, they could also make some sense as a, a fit here. Like that wouldn't shock me. Um, maybe it would surprise me slightly, um, just given who I expect to the Royals have a chance at six, but yeah, I, I would associate Kansas city with almost all the pitchers in this class and just your like higher upside athletic type high school profiles. Generally. I think I actually have them with a college player at pick number 30. Um, Caden Sorrell at Texas A & M.
00:34:27
Speaker 2: He is, um, He is also more.
00:34:30
Speaker 1: Of a risky upside sort of college profile compared to some of the other college players in this range. There is some strikeout risk that you're going to have to stomach by taking him, but he does have this really exciting power, speed, center field upside that I wonder if they would be into as well.
00:34:49
Speaker 3: Do you think Jared Grimlinger, the two-way player in Southern California, previously the number one, I think it was two-player, maybe three-player in the 2027 high school class until he reclassed this year. Getting a lot of buzz for both his offensive ability and left-handed pitching ability. Do you think he could potentially even rise up this high, or could this be a little too soon?
00:35:14
Speaker 2: To the Royals?
00:35:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, to the Royals.
00:35:16
Speaker 1: I would be surprised if the Royals took him, but I don't think it's surprising if he got into this range on the board. I'm not sure if teams in the 7 to 10 range are on him super heavily, but starting with the Nationals at 11, I feel like every team from 11 to 20 is going to be really interested in him, particularly the model-heavy teams. I kind of get the sense that the teams highest on him actually prefer him as a hitter at this stage. I just think his contact skills, his history of basically never swinging and missing, and his age aren't really catapulting him up the boards of model heavy teams. So I've got him associated with teams like the nationals, the diamond backs, the guardians. And I actually have them off the board here at the red with the red socks. That almost feels like it's hard to say for certainty, like a true floor for a player. Cause you never know what can actually happen. But if, if Jared grindling or falls past the red socks at this point, it would be a little surprising both because like, I feel like they're really into him. and also because he has so many potential landing spots in front of that, it does feel like Jared Grinlinger and Trevor Condon are kind of the next high school hitters and, and however you want to classify Grinlinger. I'll be really interested in how Grinlinger is handled. I think whoever drafts him will probably let him continue the two way deal at the next level because he's just very talented at both. But I kind of, I wouldn't be shocked if, uh, the team's highest on him preferred him as a hitter. Um, do you prefer him one way or the other?
00:36:57
Speaker 3: Ben?
00:36:57
Speaker 1: Cause I actually think I prefer him as a pitcher, but I know you're the King of go do both. We like two way players.
00:37:03
Speaker 3: I prefer him to be a two way. I mean, just think about how many guys have been two way players at his age where we've thought, Oh, I like this guy on the mound more. And it turns out, Oh, actually he's a better hitter. And he's still, I mean, he just turned 17. Like, few minutes ago so.
00:37:23
Speaker 1: I don't know exactly how old josh hammond was but i imagine like josh hammond at this age i'm like oh he's definitely a pitcher and then throughout this next year at the same age or a little bit older it's like oh he's a hitter so you.
00:37:36
Speaker 3: Can also develop him as a two-way player it's not like he's a shortstop or a catcher okay let's you can put him as a cornerer out give him some reps out there just let him dh yeah frank like if he's gonna or play some first base maybe um if you want i do like the fact that he's not a.
00:37:58
Speaker 1: He's not playing a position that like demands a ton of throwing volume when he's not pitching that feels just more more appealing in a two-way player like a Like I'm not interested in a right-handed pitcher and catcher. I'm not super interested in like a shortstop and right-handed pitcher. Just like the volume of throwing you have to do on your non-pitching days seems like it's almost intolerably high to do at like a real level long term. But like with the caveat that like assume he's going to continue doing both, does one side or the other excite you more about him? Are you personally higher on him pitching or hitting?
00:38:37
Speaker 3: Maybe the pitching I'd lean toward because I think he has the case as the best left-handed pitcher in this class. I'd probably still lean toward Gio Rojas. He's also like two full years younger than Gio Rojas. Now that Gio Rojas has a better fastball, a longer track record, but Grinlinger's pitch ability is outstanding. He's up to 96 as a a kid who just turned 17 years old. He arguably has a better slider. He does have a better changeup. I mean, he's probably one of the best, probably the best pitching prospect, left-handed pitcher I've seen as a, when he was 16, probably since Thomas was, yeah.
00:39:20
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, that's pretty compelling. I mean, the two-year age gap is significant. You've got Jared Greinlinger, 17.2, at the draft, Brody Bumela, 18.4 at the draft, and Gio Rojas, 19 at the draft, all kind of one after another on our current board. And then again, I don't think Logan Schmidt, 17.9 at the draft, is too far off that group at all.
00:39:42
Speaker 3: And I would probably prefer Logan Schmidt to both Greinlinger and Bumela.
00:39:49
Speaker 2: As pitchers personally, but.
00:39:53
Speaker 3: What about the Orioles picking at seven? We, uh, we do have some history of them picking this high, but it hasn't been recent. And I also don't feel like, I don't know, have they shown a type recently? Like I really like what they've done.
00:40:07
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:40:07
Speaker 3: Hitters, I guess it's fair to say, but very different. I mean, they took Vance Honeycutt with their first round pick a couple of years ago. Oh, yeah ike irish though hit well like their draft last year looks looks really strong so far do you see them so it sounds like probably some some hitter but also it doesn't seem like there's maybe a college guy lighting it up.
00:40:34
Speaker 1: Um well i do think they have especially if it happens like there's two pitchers taken in front of them i think they'd be pretty excited because it's just more hitters that are pushed down to them to take and again like We basically have no reason to think that the Orioles are going to scrap their pitching at the top draft philosophy. They've never taken a pitcher top 50, so picking seven, it just feels... I mean, maybe they really just love Jackson Flora and all the hitters they think are in the top tier go, and that changes things. It's impossible for me to say that's not going to happen.
00:41:08
Speaker 2: It just feels.
00:41:09
Speaker 1: like it's unlikely to happen. I've heard them connected with, with Eric Booth. If Jacob Lombard got there, I think Jacob Lombard will make a lot of sense for them as well. And then you get into this like second tier of college hitters where if AJ Gracia is available there, I think he, this maybe it's like the high point for AJ Gracia, the highest I could like think of him fitting. I think Drew Burris is a player who makes a lot of sense for the Orioles based on how they've drafted in the past. Like, I haven't heard them connected with Chris Akopian, but if they just viewed Chris Akopian as one of the better hit power combos in the class, that could make sense as well.
00:41:44
Speaker 3: Like all these about like an ace Reese and Mississippi state. Yeah.
00:41:48
Speaker 1: I don't have a great feel for where ace Reese is going to go because like a month ago I was hearing him connected more with teams in this range and then he cooled off and I think he's starting to heat back up again. But I do think like the Orioles have targeted left-handed hitting OBP power guys. And I think, I don't know if like the OPP, like how convinced you are in that, but he, the underlying contact quality for Ace Reese has been pretty loud all year. So if they were into either Reese or Hickopian, that wouldn't be surprising to me. Ryder Helfrich is another guy in this range that I think is interesting to think about because of his performance. And then again, not sure if like the Orioles in particular into this profile, but Tyler Bell is kind of a sneaky guy. player in this range. I think he's been such a strong performer and has a very safe defensive profile that I think a lot of teams who are picking kind of in this back of the 10 range or uncertain if they're going to get a chance at one of these elite players and are sorting through this muddled middle. I think Tyler Bell has been a player who's kind of tracking up just cause he keeps performing.
00:42:59
Speaker 2: He gets on base a lot.
00:43:00
Speaker 1: Um, everyone's probably going to love just the makeup and the way he competes to, to the extent that that moves the needle, um, for teams. Um, he, Tyler Bell just feels like a player that regardless of philosophy, whether you're a model heavy team, whether you're kind of a really scouting heavy team, traditional scouting sort of team, like Tyler Bell feels like he will appeal to a broad swath of clubs. And I do feel like he's getting a lot of play in this seven to 16 range. We got them right in the middle. with the Cardinals right now, but it wouldn't shock me if he was in the mix higher than that.
00:43:36
Speaker 3: But you have the Orioles in this version of the mock draft taking EJ.
00:43:40
Speaker 1: Booth, right? Yeah.
00:43:41
Speaker 2: I kind of buried the lead for a few minutes there, but yeah.
00:43:45
Speaker 3: You mentioned them, but just bringing it back up. So I like Booth. I think he's a good prospect. Sell me a little bit more on him because last summer, summer slash fall, probably mostly summer though, according to, you know, synergy sports, which tracks his, uh, you know, summer performance across different, uh, different summer tournaments and showcase events. He hit two 50, four Oh six, three 69. And you look at him, you're like, okay, well, he clearly has a lot of bat speed. He clearly has a lot of raw power. Is it a very, very strong human being, very powerful, very explosive. He can run, um, very little swing and miss draws walks yeah but also there are some questions about how does that it's not like a traditional textbook swing no right so what at what has teams sold on him because it does seem like there are a lot of teams that are sold on him going somewhere in the top 10.
00:44:48
Speaker 1: Yeah i think that that eric booth just has one of the better combinations of Tools and upside potential in the class. I think there is a lot of confidence in the contact skills that you mentioned, being able to allow him to make the swing changes he might need to make moving forward to better tap into.
00:45:09
Speaker 2: That power that he has. It is an unconventional look.
00:45:13
Speaker 1: I've heard nothing but positive things about the strides that he's made with the swing mechanics and bat path this spring, if teams buy into that.
00:45:22
Speaker 2: There's a lot to like.
00:45:23
Speaker 1: He's 18 at the draft. He's younger than both of the other high school players in this top tier with him by either a few months or almost a year if you're comparing him to Jacob Lombard. All these guys are going to be 18 at the draft, though. It's a premium defensive profile. He's an elite runner. He's been a consistent 80-grade runner in the past. If he slows down, maybe he's a 70-grade runner. He's pretty physical and strong. So maybe you could say that he goes a little bit backwards speed wise, but he could give a grade in speed and still be an impact runner who you project to stick in center field. And then I think there's just a lot of excitement about what he could become offensively given the bat speed that you mentioned, given sort of his innate hand-eye coordination and contact skills. If you're an organization who thinks, yeah, like we can take all these ingredients, we can take these components and we can help him figure out a more consistent swing or a swing that will allow him to maybe get the ball in the air more consistently. Cause I do think in the past, he's been a little bit slappy, a little bit oppo oriented, kind of this like slap and dash type runner. But outside of that, like if you feel like the swing is either malleable or you don't mind the aesthetics of the swing in the first place, it's a lot to like, like the only tool that, that he doesn't really have at a high level is a throwing arm. And I think for most players, but especially for center fielders, like the throwing arm is probably the tool you're least interested in.
00:46:52
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:46:53
Speaker 1: Like he's a fringy thrower. Even if he's always a fringy thrower, he could still be a plus defender. I don't think he's a plus defender now, but I think he has all the tools and athleticism to become that in center field. And I think at a certain point, like that's a lot to like right there.
00:47:10
Speaker 3: Um, I don't know.
00:47:12
Speaker 1: You think you just wish he would perform more? I guess I was, uh, as a showcase player a year ago.
00:47:18
Speaker 3: I just think for me as like a top 10 pick top 10 overall pick, that's where I want to feel more conviction in that. Whereas like a guy, I think he's going to have to make some adjustments with his swing. He does a lot of things that I love.
00:47:32
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you, but I also think that like any hitter you name after that has the same thing in this year's class. Like I know you're higher on AJ Gracia, so maybe that's a separate for you. You probably think like AJ Gracia is like ready-made now. I have as much concerns about the swing with Gracia as I would with Booth. And I'm a little concerned that AJ Gracia is not hitting the ball harder than he has been this year. I think with guys like with Chris Akopian, huge defensive questions, athleticism questions with Drew Burris. he's got the size questions. How does the swing translate at the next level? Very pull oriented. Now with Derek Curiel, like with Derek Curiel, you could say that EJ Booth has like better tools than him across the board. Like maybe you just prefer Derek Curiel swing with ace Reese. It's like very questionable defensive profile. There's hit tool risk with Trevor Condon. You don't have the same sort of physicality or power upside there. I don't think with Jared Grindlinger, you don't have the premium profile. Like, Like if Justin LeBron was going out and performing, I would say, yeah, take Justin LeBron over him. He's got a much more conventional swing. He's going to be an elite defender at shortstop. He's got power speed combination. He's got track record in college, but he doesn't. Like he's so going to miss a lot. I just think like if you can name a hitter after EJ Booth that you feel more confident in with a similar profile, I think teams would love that because there'd be one more player for them to pick from at the top. But I think that's probably why he's separated a little bit. Maybe it's a little class-specific for him.
00:49:07
Speaker 3: Talk to me about the Braves. They're picking 9th and 26th this year. Who did they get the 26th pick for? That was a PPI?
00:49:20
Speaker 1: That's for drake baldwin winning drake baldwin yeah.
00:49:22
Speaker 3: All right so they got yeah so that's that's a nice little bonus for them two picks there they haven't picked top 10 since what shay langoliers when they were picking, yeah.
00:49:34
Speaker 1: They also picked a second one in the 20th and got shoemake that draft. So it's funny that the last time they picked top 10, they also had like a second pick in this range too.
00:49:42
Speaker 3: So what do you, what are you seeing? What do you think the Braves will do? Man, the top 10 this.
00:49:49
Speaker 1: Year, I feel like the Braves almost feel like the biggest wild card in the draft because they're picking in a range where the board opens up. They're also a team that has a track record of, being willing to take high school pitchers. So it's not like it's where the Orioles where you can feel okay, like eliminating two whole demographics and then like narrowing down your focus on which of the hitters you think they're interested in. Like, would you be surprised that the Braves took a high school pitcher at nine? I might be a little bit surprised, but you only have to look at their draft history to see that like, they're willing to do that. They're willing to take underslot players with their first pick and push money down the board later. Whether or not that's the strategy they do at 9 and 26 specifically, I'm not sure. Maybe they just take whoever they think is the best player on the board. At 9, they play the underslot game with their 26 pick, and then they can push money to high school players who are deeper sleeper guys and try and find the next Eric Hartman later in this year's draft. I have a lot of uncertainty about what the Braves will do. I've heard them linked to hitters like Chris Akopian, who we have with them in this mock draft now, hitters like A.J.
00:51:00
Speaker 2: Gracia.
00:51:02
Speaker 1: Drew Burris would make a lot of sense for them. I've heard them connected with high school pitching. I've heard them connected with college pitching. Kate Townsend is a name that I've heard linked with them a ton. That could be either for their ninth pick or their 26th pick, depending kind of on how Kate Townsend and the other pitchers in the class perform down the stretch. So this is like a huge swath of names and players who make sense to me. And I'm not certain that I have like a great feel for what their preference might be at both of these picks at this stage.
00:51:35
Speaker 3: Do you think they could stay local and drew Burris could be a fit in this area for them? Yeah.
00:51:40
Speaker 1: He can make a ton of sense. Why not? Um, yeah, he, he makes as much sense to me as any of these college, like Hacopi and Gracia drew Burris. All of them make a ton of sense. They kind of fit in this range on talent in my mind, like Tyler bell as well. I know they were super shortstop heavy a year ago. Um, Tate South, it seems now off to a really great start. Do they want to draft another shortstop? Tyler Bell could make sense. I've heard like Justin LeBron kind of casually mentioned them. I don't know if he's a serious candidate there, but I'm sure entering the year when the Braves were picking ninth overall, they were kind of looking at like, oh man, what if Justin LeBron fell to us? Like now it feels like a very real possibility. They could take him if they still wanted to. Has Justin LeBron kind of played himself outside of this range? That's kind of a question that I don't, have a clear answer to because I think both the A's and the Braves and maybe even teams like the Royals would still kick the tires on a Justin LeBron.
00:52:35
Speaker 3: I mean, if you like Tate South a scene, I mean, it's very obviously different looking at a high school player versus a college guy. But if you like Tate South a scene, it's a guy who had some bigger moves with his swing, but a lot of bat speed, power, ability to impact the ball. Justin LeBron certainly has that and some.
00:52:56
Speaker 1: Was I thought you were going to go with Drew Burris. Drew Burris has some bigger moves to swing, also smaller.
00:53:02
Speaker 3: Burris does. Is it too early, or maybe it makes more sense with the next pick? Looking at another Georgia player, like a Trevor Condon high school outfielder, that does seem rich to me to go top 10, but maybe with the next pick.
00:53:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, the thing that gets interesting here is if the Braves really do like Trevor Condon, they might have to take him. Because Trevor Condon, like Jared Grandlinger, has landing spots all throughout the teens. The highest I've heard Trevor Condon really seriously is at 15.
00:53:36
Speaker 2: To the D-backs.
00:53:37
Speaker 1: But I feel like after that, there are a ton of teams who are really interested in him. The Padres could make sense for him. The Tigers at 21 for the Padres, 22 for the Tigers. So the Braves are picking at 26 with their second pick. if they just find themselves in a situation where they don't like whoever's available for them at nine, and they think that Trevor Condon is in this mix of players that are viewed in a similar tier, but they really like Condon. If they wanted to try an underslot deal to get him and then get a high upside high school pitcher at 26, whether that's a Rojas or Bumila or Logan Schmidt or Jensen Hirschkorn or Coleman Borthwick, like that could be a scenario that makes sense. And I think this year, once you get to this eight to nine, 10 range, all those underslot deals could start coming into play with these teams.
00:54:28
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the Nationals picking 11th overall, first year under Paul Taboney and the new group that they have there. What are you hearing on the Nationals with their first round pick?
00:54:41
Speaker 1: Kind of similar, similar to the teams in front. A lot of college hitters. I hear linked to them. Drew Burris could make a lot of sense. Like it feels like they're going to operate in a similar way to other Red Sox have operated in the past, given the kind of brain trust they have there. Jared Greinlinger, maybe this is one of the earliest realistic spots for a guy like him. Yeah, we're kind of in the range now where all the same players are talked about. And it's like it starts to get very speculative in this range.
00:55:10
Speaker 3: There's like a certain type of player that you saw them target with the Red Sox. So you think Nationals fans should expect them to gravitate toward more in these drafts for the Nationals?
00:55:21
Speaker 1: I actually think they're, I would be a little bit surprised if it was a high school pitcher, but outside of that, I think they're open to a number of different profiles. I don't think there's like one specific one that I feel like they're definitely going to do at this stage.
00:55:33
Speaker 2: And it's hard to know too.
00:55:34
Speaker 1: It is, it is a new group. Like it's not just going to be, imagine copying paste what Boston has done, but no, I don't, I don't have a lot of clarity on that.
00:55:43
Speaker 3: Well, with, uh, I mean, they brought in the pirates, former scouting director too.
00:55:48
Speaker 1: Also with some Boston roots.
00:55:51
Speaker 3: Yep.
00:55:51
Speaker 1: And they were very high risk, high, high upside high school tech players.
00:55:56
Speaker 3: Seth Hernandez. Does that, I mean, it does, it does seem like there's a lot of different types of players that can be in play here for the nationals. I, yeah.
00:56:06
Speaker 1: Given, given the, The track record of the players that these decision makers have taken, both with the Red Sox and with the Pirates, it's hard to really eliminate any sort of profiles for them.
00:56:19
Speaker 3: But there is no Seth Hernandez in this draft.
00:56:22
Speaker 2: There is no Seth Hernandez in this draft.
00:56:23
Speaker 3: That is true. That is very true. He's doing all right. I don't know if you heard that, Carlos. Oh, yeah.
00:56:29
Speaker 2: I've been tracking him.
00:56:30
Speaker 1: I've been keeping up. He's been pretty good.
00:56:34
Speaker 3: Let's skip down a little bit here. Cause the next team that interests me that you have here is a Cincinnati Reds pick an 18th overall.
00:56:45
Speaker 1: Yeah. Good luck with my confidence on this one, Ben.
00:56:48
Speaker 3: Well, it does seem like they do have a history of just shooting for upside. Is that fair to say? Yeah, I think so.
00:56:57
Speaker 1: I mean, this is.
00:56:58
Speaker 3: Some, some risk maybe that other teams would.
00:57:02
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so.
00:57:03
Speaker 1: I have a few Mila here, which is why Ben is talking about the risk and he feels like perhaps the riskiest player as a chance to go on the first round, maybe the riskiest player in the class, but obviously that comes with tremendous upside and really with Bumila placing him with teams. It's hard for me to find organizations that based on what they've done in the past would actually take a player like this. Like the, I could have easily put them with the Padres again. But I know that like every you've been to his games, like every team in the industry is scouting this guy super heavily and It's.
00:57:37
Speaker 3: A lot of scouts that I don't normally ever see at a Massachusetts game. I mean, obviously, you see the area scouts there at most of his games, too. But it's a lot of national cross-checkers, scouting directors, special assistant, guy whose job is to evaluate the best pitchers in the class job.
00:58:00
Speaker 1: Right. So everyone is scouting him. whether or not all these teams are scouting him for their first pick versus, Oh, they really would like to get him with their next pick.
00:58:10
Speaker 2: I think is the biggest question with Brody B Mila.
00:58:13
Speaker 1: And the one that is going to be the most difficult to answer in these mock drafts, because we just don't see teams take players that are this risky with their first pick. There are a small group of teams that I could like see it being more likely than others. The reds are probably one of those teams that, I could talk myself into any team taking him in this like 10 to 20 range because it seems like all those teams have had really like high level scouts there watching him. But when it actually comes down to it on draft day, the GM comes in the room is like, wait, we're taking a high school pitcher who doesn't really have a breaking ball right now, who's already had a really, really serious injury. Elbow procedure who we didn't see pitch at all last summer because of that.
00:59:01
Speaker 2: We're taking him with our first pick.
00:59:03
Speaker 1: No, we're not like I could see that conversation or something like it happening in a lot of draft rooms. Um, Um, it still wouldn't shock me at all. If Brody B Mila is in a Thomas white situation where he goes in the thirties and is paid like a first rounder. Uh, like I thought about putting him to the Marlins because they are a team who in recent history has taken multiple high school pitchers. early on um but it's just once we get into like that top 15 range i don't know ben it's just hard for me to see someone really doing it do you think you think there's a chance he actually goes top 15 you've you've seen him more than i have.
00:59:40
Speaker 3: I think i think somebody will pay him first round money i don't know that it'll be yeah that's.
00:59:47
Speaker 1: The first round that's why it's a nightmare for the mock yeah.
00:59:51
Speaker 3: So, yeah. So for the mock, yeah, it's tough. Cause I do think, yeah, it's probably, it could end up being something like Thomas White. And I think, I think Thomas White was better than Bermuda at the same age.
01:00:03
Speaker 2: I think so too.
01:00:04
Speaker 3: And I think Bermuda is really, I mean, Bermuda throws, he throws a hundred to one miles an hour from the left side. He's six foot nine. He gets great extension from a low release. I like all the traits that you want to obsess over that he has on his fastball. he's got, right? And he does have a good changeup too, right? It's not like he's just up there throwing fastballs only. No, it is a very fastball heavy.
01:00:28
Speaker 1: It's not a Thomas White changeup though, is it? Thomas White's changeup was really good.
01:00:32
Speaker 3: Thomas White had a great changeup. But Miller has a good changeup though. I mean, he holds a baseball and it looks like me holding a golf ball. I mean, it's just enormous hands. The ball just sinks into him. He throws it. He just gets a lot of sink on the on the pitch. It's, it's a really good pitch. Uh, probably scouts would like to see him throw it even more often, but if you're, you know, sitting 95 to 98 as a six foot nine left-handed pitcher facing Massachusetts high school hitters, like I get it. So, um, but yeah, more, the question is more is going to be on the breaking ball and he's not, I mean, he's not wild, but, um, like if you went out, I'd expect him to go out next year and, When.
01:01:21
Speaker 1: The zone shrinks a bit, it's going to need to corral the strikes a little bit more probably is what I would imagine.
01:01:26
Speaker 3: Probably like four-ish walks per nine innings, four to five I would expect next year if he goes out to low A. I mean, he loves pitching inside way more than most.
01:01:35
Speaker 1: I got to convert you to a walk rate guy rather than walks per nine.
01:01:40
Speaker 3: It's gross. Everyone knows what I mean. But yeah, I think that and just the track record where you're like, well, we could draft him or you could draft the other like many other high school pitchers or some college guys who are probably still on the board here who don't have that same medical track record that he has that creates some some durability risk.
01:02:07
Speaker 1: I think this will be the question that we continue to ask and wonder about and for me stress about 30 teams until we get.
01:02:15
Speaker 3: To draft day so Somebody, I think somebody will pay him as a first round pick. And it could be, I mean, it could be in the top 15 picks. Like you said, like if, I mean, the Royals love left-handed pitching. They're very much, I would say less risk averse than some other clubs. Maybe it goes like what, like it could be way under slot and still a really high bonus, obviously. Yeah.
01:02:42
Speaker 2: Slot value for that pick is 7.7 million.
01:02:44
Speaker 1: So.
01:02:45
Speaker 3: Yeah. So you could go there and then they have a, you know, more picks. Right.
01:02:50
Speaker 2: So like pick at 30.
01:02:51
Speaker 1: Yep.
01:02:51
Speaker 3: Yeah. So they could do a lot of damage that way. If they're like, Hey, we want Brody Bumilla, but he's not getting past, you know, X, Y, or Z team. We think it's picking in the twenties. All right. We take them there. And, um, I think that'd be very.
01:03:05
Speaker 1: Imagine Jacob Lombard is on the board and they take Brody Bumilla.
01:03:09
Speaker 3: Probably not. If Jacob Lombard is on the board, but yeah, maybe they, maybe they're looking at the board and saying like, all right, like who are the highest upside guys here? Like we're not enamored with any of these college hitters or these college arms, but we have, you know, Pamela here. We have another high school arm, you know, like a Coleman Borthwick or somebody else who they really like later in the draft and they get them there. So, yeah, it's just so it's a wide range of outcomes. I just know somebody is going to pay him a substantial amount of money somewhere in the draft this year.
01:03:46
Speaker 1: I agree.
01:03:48
Speaker 3: All right, what about the Guardians picking at 19 this year? So are they just going to take another big power, low contact guy like Jace Laviolette again? I don't know. That one's not looking great.
01:04:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, for them to go that again, maybe Jace would have to start picking it up a bit because as we sit here today recording, he is in high A hitting 196, 311, 392, 42% punch out rate. Not what you would want to see, but certainly comes with kind of the risk of what he showed us last spring. Probably speaks to how he was able to get to them in the first place. Yeah, I feel like, I mean, we're solidly in the range of speculation here with the Guardians, who they're going to take, who's going to be available to them. I think they could be another team that really looks into this high school pitching demographic, maybe the left-handed pitching demographic. In particular, another team that would make sense for a Grindlinger or a Condon if they were on the board. I do think Curiel just fits a lot of the traits they have historically prized, which is excellent ball skills, excellent basketball skills, barrel accuracy, left-handed hitting. And of the teams who have been fine to take players that have power questions, the Guardians would be near the top of that list. Other teams like the D-backs, Brewers maybe. I'm not sure if there are any other teams that have taken a lot of contact-oriented guys, but those are kind of the orgs that take those. So Curiel feels like a sensible pick for them.
01:05:26
Speaker 3: Left-handed bats, too. Yeah.
01:05:28
Speaker 1: And despite my Derek Curiel PR campaign, I don't hear his name talked about in the top 12 or so as much as I would like to hear it. So I think he could wind up in this sort of range on the board.
01:05:44
Speaker 3: What about like a Tyler Bell or an Ace Reese? Like the Guardians love their switch hitting shortstops like a Tyler Bell. I don't know if he's even still available there or Ace Reese too. Like, I mean, very different athlete than a Chase DeLauder, but like another physical left-handed hitting power college bat with track records.
01:06:10
Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm trying to see when the last time that the guardians took a corner profile like that in the first round. So when you mentioned ace Reese, my first thought was like, that doesn't feel like a guardians sort of player. And like looking at their first round draft history, almost all of the hitters they've taken are either up the middle types, or I think all of them are up the middle types.
01:06:30
Speaker 3: Actually. It depends how you classify Ralphie Velasquez. I guess that's the one I was going to say.
01:06:34
Speaker 1: Like they drafted him as a catcher and probably wanted him to catch, but like Last year, Jace Laviolette, center fielder, Travis Pazana, second base, Ralphie Ketcher, Chase DeLauder, center fielder, Carson Tucker, shortstop, Bo Naylor, Ketcher, Bradley Zimmer, Clint Frazier, Tyler Naquin, Francisco. They just haven't taken a lot of corner profile. Like Bo Mills they took in 2007. That's going back a while. Yeah, Lewis Clark State, first round, first baseman. 2007, Bo Mills. I don't know if you remember that draft. I do.
01:07:07
Speaker 3: I remember writing Bo Mills scouting reports when he was in the Guardian system. Probably him and Nick Weglars and some other names. Some blasts from the past.
01:07:19
Speaker 1: 2007, I think I was in 8th grade. So I was not locked in on Bo Mills. So Ace Reese, when you mentioned him, maybe doesn't feel like a fit.
01:07:29
Speaker 2: But yeah, if Tyler Bell is.
01:07:30
Speaker 1: On the board, at 19, I think that would be a tremendous pick for the guardians. I don't know that that'll happen, but I get again, like once we get into this range, the volatility and the range of outcomes for all these guys is pretty wide.
01:07:46
Speaker 3: How about, how about like a Trevor Condon, maybe another left-handed hitting high school player who is a premium position guy, or I'll throw another, I'll throw two at you actually one, Tyler Spangler, left-handed hitting, shortstop in California. He's been slowed by a back injury this year. But prior to that, probably would have been in the mix and in this range, potentially. Stanford, commit. I don't know what's going to happen with him. I'd love to have him here if I was the Guardians. I'd be happy with him. Or I'll throw another one, too, just so you can have to answer like, three different questions at once. Aiden Ruiz, high school shortstop from New York, who he is old for the class, so that's not very Guardians-ish. But everything else about him is like, if he was Aiden Ruiz from the Dominican Republic, this is everything the Guardians would typically target. Switch hitting, shortstop, maybe not the most physical guy, but elite contact skill. They had a ton of switch hitting shortstops like that. Really great defender. Maybe I would say the best defensive shortstop in the high school class. What do you think of those names? I'm shoveling at you here.
01:09:13
Speaker 1: I think two of them make a lot of sense, and I think Adrian Ruiz would be very surprising to me because I almost think like the age– would just be a non-factor for them. Like 19.3, it's not just like he's slightly old for the class.
01:09:26
Speaker 2: He's pretty old.
01:09:27
Speaker 1: Like 19.3 at the draft is, I think that would be the oldest high school player that we've talked about today.
01:09:33
Speaker 3: He's older than Jesus Madej.
01:09:35
Speaker 1: He's older than Gio Rojas, who's 19 at the draft. He's older than Jacob Lombard, who's 18.8 at the draft. Actually, Colt Prosek, also 19 at the draft. Savion Sims, 19.1. Aiden Ruiz might be the oldest high school player that we have inside the top 100. And that just, that screams anti-Guardians to me, Ben. I don't know if you're going to slip that one past them.
01:10:00
Speaker 3: Does Jay Slavia let's scream Guardians?
01:10:03
Speaker 2: It's true. This is true.
01:10:04
Speaker 1: We have to, we had to set our expectations at the door when the draft happens. No, Condon, Condon would be a great fit.
01:10:11
Speaker 2: I would imagine. Who was the other player you mentioned?
01:10:13
Speaker 3: Tyler Spangler. I think that would be.
01:10:15
Speaker 2: Oh yeah.
01:10:16
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, the Spangler question is like, what is the price we're talking about now? Like, how does the Stanford commit affect things? How does the lack of just any sort of recent track record this spring impact how teams are going to make those decisions? I'm kind of with you, like in this year's class where there's a lot of uncertainty, where there's not a lot of hit tools you feel comfortable with. I feel like Tyler Spangler, I would be interested in him at any point from 10 to 20 on Pureland Talent alone profile. Like if he came out and looked like he did a year ago, we could be talking about a top four of high school players with Spangler and Lombard and Eric Booth Jr.
01:10:56
Speaker 2: And Grady Emerson.
01:10:57
Speaker 1: And like, those guys are going top 10. If he came out and was healthy, but it's just, it's hard for me to get a feel on what teams are going to do with him because he hasn't done anything this year. We've not heard his name mentioned a bunch. Like if someone still takes him at any point in this range, because we're so high on his pure talent, it wouldn't be surprising. It's just, there there's just pure question marks surrounding his status at this stage for me. All right.
01:11:21
Speaker 3: How about the Boston Red Sox picking right after them 20th overall, you have them taken two way player from California, Jared Grinlinger, left-handed pitcher and outfielder. Um, they seem like they've been very aggressive with pitching, uh, in recent years. Uh, do you see them? Do you think it's likely that, Hey, maybe like a, whether it's like a Tegan Coons, a Cade Townsend, one of these other college arms that you mentioned could be a fit for them here.
01:11:55
Speaker 2: Yep.
01:11:56
Speaker 3: Do you think Brody Bumilla could be possibility staying?
01:11:59
Speaker 1: Man, could you imagine if Brody Bumilla is on the board for the Red Sox, how much their fans are going to be like.
01:12:04
Speaker 2: Please take the 101 mile per hour left in a pitcher.
01:12:08
Speaker 1: I haven't heard Brody Bumila like, oh, definitely like he's in connection with the Red Sox. I also feel like all those names you mentioned in the college pitching side make a lot of sense given what they've done in the past. I feel like the Red Sox maybe are more excited about Jared Greinlinger because of his contact ability and hitting than the pitching, if I had to guess.
01:12:26
Speaker 2: But he is, I.
01:12:28
Speaker 1: Think Greinlinger has been maybe as heavily associated with the Red Sox as any player team connection that I've heard.
01:12:35
Speaker 2: At this point.
01:12:35
Speaker 1: And so it just feels like he's a real possibility for them. If he's still on the board, that said, I could see him going to pick in front to the guardians, 17.2 of the draft makes a ton of contact. Like we just talked about that, like they're left-handed hitters, but again, like other options for the red Sox at 20, like run the gamut. They're probably like 10, 15 different players. You could mention we're, we're fully in speculation territory here.
01:12:58
Speaker 3: We'll speculate away. Um, G, What type of college hitters, then, if they are in this range, could they be looking at?
01:13:09
Speaker 2: I mean, who knows? They could be into all sorts of them. I mean, I don't feel like.
01:13:19
Speaker 2: I mean, who are the college hitters in this range?
01:13:22
Speaker 1: Like, if a Curry L gets here or a Tyler Bell gets here, that could make sense.
01:13:26
Speaker 2: Like, would they take a shot on.
01:13:29
Speaker 1: One player we haven't talked about at all today that I feel like is right in this range is Zion Rose, actually. Outfitter with Louisville. I have no idea if the Red Sox are really into this profile or not, but I feel like Zion Rose has been getting a lot of helium. He's been performing. He has this speed-power combination. The performance has been excellent. He's not playing centerfield because it just happens to be a really good defensive centerfielder on his team in Lucas Moore, but I think whoever drafts Zion Rose and it feels right now, like he's definitely going to go inside the first round. We'll undoubtedly run him out at center field. So maybe that's a possibility. If you're looking at college hitters, you start to kind of run out of college bats in this range. For me, guys like Caden Sorrell with Texas A & M, Aiden Robbins with Texas has been really impressive. Looking further down the board, like guys who may be sneak into this first round range, Logan Hughes with Texas Tech, Chase Brunson, With TCU, maybe it's a Daniel Jackson at Georgia. These are all guys I could see in the back of the first round, but with Boston at 20, it feels like maybe towards the higher end of where I would expect those players to go. Let's see if there's another name. I kind of wonder about Carson Tinney. Again, purely kind of going through names that I could see coming in this range. Carson Tinney, just huge power from the catcher position. Probably a pretty good chance to stick at catcher, but you're going to have to tolerate some hit risk. I feel like there are a lot more high school bats who would make more sense than some of these college hitters I'm naming, though.
01:15:03
Speaker 3: About right after them, San Diego Padres picking 21st overall. You did not have them with a high school player. No, I was foolish. I don't know what you're thinking on that, but you do have them with a very high-risk player with Justin LeBron, shortstop at Alabama. I mean, I don't know what to do with Justin LeBron at this point.
01:15:31
Speaker 2: That's part of the reason he's there at 21 to the Padres, truthfully.
01:15:34
Speaker 1: It's like, yes, I do not think that right-handed hitting college player screams San Diego Padre to me. But I also just think of like, if Justin LeBron gets to this range, do I think the Padres would be a team that takes a shot on his upside? Yeah, I do think they maybe could be. part of it is also like, I don't want to just keep putting Brody B. Miller to the Padres every time in the sense that I'm not trying to convey like confidence in a pick more than I actually believe it.
01:16:09
Speaker 3: And also, he's also not available. Exactly.
01:16:12
Speaker 1: In this scenario, I have him going a little bit earlier. Um, but like, I have heard that like the Padres are like, obviously didn't expect him to be available here, but they're kind of doing their due diligence, uh, and making sure that if he does get to them, they're, in a position to make a good decision. Um, yeah, Justin LeBron is like the college version of these riskier high school types. Like the Brady B Mila of the college side does feel like it's just Justin LeBron because tools and upside, he belongs in the first 10, but the performance does not warrant going that high. And so like how far he actually slides, I think is a real question. Like, I think, Like I thought about him with the Marlins. Like I've heard some, some chatter about that potentially making some sense, but really no one seems confident in either. Like, like a is Justin LeBron going to get to you. And like, if he does get to you, is that something that you're excited about or scared about? So, I mean, maybe it's a situation. Does he fall all the way to a team like the brewers who've just scooped up guys like this in the past when they've slid down the board? Garrett Mitchell was one of those. He had a lot of risk with a lot of tools. There was another player that slid to the Brewers. Was it just Bryce Durang? I feel like they've kind of scooped up a lot of these guys who have slid down.
01:17:38
Speaker 3: I was going to say like Jace Laviolette was a guy who slid down. Like Vance Honeycutt was a guy who was high early, slid down. So like, oh, are you buying low or are you catching a falling knife? Exactly.
01:17:52
Speaker 1: I think that is going to be a conversation that teams are having with Justin LeBron. They've been having it. They'll continue to have it. I think he's got to be one of the scarier players in this draft you're taking inside of the first round because there's just considerable hit risk here. But when you see Justin LeBron on the right day, he looks like a potential superstar.
01:18:14
Speaker 3: If you just see the highlights, it looks great. That's crazy. Dealing with the Padres and Brody Pamela. I would not be shocked if they drafted him. I also would not be surprised if they said, you know what? We took a high school pitcher who is a different situation because he got hurt and then didn't come back before the draft. But they took Dylan Lesko in the first round. That one has not worked out well.
01:18:41
Speaker 1: They offloaded the risk a little, but I guess they were not selling high on Dylan Lesko when they traded him.
01:18:47
Speaker 3: Dylan Lesko is not looking great right now.
01:18:50
Speaker 1: Now. Don't remind me, Ben.
01:18:52
Speaker 3: Cruz Schoolcraft, they took a six-foot, I guess he's only six-foot-eight maybe, so maybe a little shorter.
01:18:59
Speaker 1: Puny compared to Bumilla, yeah.
01:19:00
Speaker 3: To Bumilla, who also is lacking some feel for a breaking ball. He's also, look, it's only like a month into his career. The strikes have not been very good. We'll see what happens there.
01:19:14
Speaker 1: He's walking more batters than he's struck out so far in his first six starts in low A.
01:19:17
Speaker 3: I also would not be surprised if they said, you know what? Maybe we go a different direction this time.
01:19:25
Speaker 1: Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me at all if they did. I mean, I got Trevor Condon at 22 right behind the Padres. That's another one that makes a ton of sense for them, actually, given some of the players they've They've taken to the past. Let's see if they're in yet.
01:19:39
Speaker 3: Like a Logan Schmidt, maybe. Coleman Borthwick, big physical power arm from high school.
01:19:47
Speaker 1: The other guys of interest, like a Cole Prosek, Bo Lawrence. I'm not sure if they would be into or not into Aiden Ruiz. Would an Aiden Ruiz of the Padres shock you? I don't think so.
01:20:03
Speaker 3: He's not– they usually go for a little bit more physicality.
01:20:05
Speaker 2: Like physicality, yeah.
01:20:07
Speaker 3: But he's good.
01:20:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm seeing if there are any other hitters in this range, like any other high school hitters in particular that would make sense.
01:20:17
Speaker 2: I feel like there's a name that.
01:20:19
Speaker 3: How about Tyler Spangler? There's your physical high school.
01:20:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think of Tyler Spangler with them for whatever reason. Yeah, maybe– I mean, Bo Lawrence is an interesting one. I think Bo Lawrence– He's a guy who we didn't actually have in this mock draft, but could go anywhere from 15-ish to 40. I know there are a lot of teams that are just enamored with his left-handed hitting power potential, and he's also been, I think, better than seems expected defensively. Not that you're going to draft Bo Lawrence for defense. You're drafting him because you think he can be a middle-of-the-lineup masher.
01:20:53
Speaker 3: How about Sean Duncan, lefty from Canada?
01:20:57
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, throw him into that left-handed pitching demographic. Expect him to potentially go in a pretty good spot, too.
01:21:04
Speaker 3: Do you think Gio Rojas could slide all the way down here? It feels unlikely, right? Somebody's going to scoop him.
01:21:10
Speaker 1: Up for him. I mean, never say never. Cam Caminiti, I feel like we heard him talked about far higher than where he went. He slid to 23 to the Braves. So, like, you should never be surprised if a high school pitcher slides a little bit. And I guess sliding Gio Rojas going at, like, 21, 22, I don't think that's, like, crazy off where we view his talent. I would be a little surprised just because I've heard a lot of teams in front of the Padres really into him. He's pitched really well. Maybe the best high school pitcher in the class. But yeah, that can make sense too.
01:21:47
Speaker 3: Which other teams that we haven't hit on yet that might interest you in the 20s? Or maybe somebody else. We've got Tigers, Cubs, Mariners, Brewers. Mets are going to probably be picking a lot higher next year, I imagine, than 27. Astros, Cardinals have a gazillion picks this year to work through.
01:22:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Cardinals are probably the most interesting team that you just mentioned.
01:22:18
Speaker 2: How they.
01:22:20
Speaker 1: Operate is going to be fun to see. Luke Williams at 32 might be a little bit higher. for where Luke Williams is most likely to go. But I think the Cardinals are probably one of the most likely teams to take a profile like Luke Williams this year. I mean, he's like huge.
01:22:37
Speaker 2: Tools, huge upside, athleticism, a lot of hit risk.
01:22:42
Speaker 1: But I think when you're the Cardinals and you're picking, let's see, they're picking first at 13. You've got $ 16. 6 million of total pool money. Then you're picking 32, 50, 68, 72, and 83. So you've got six picks in the first 83. If the Cardinals wanted to get a little creative here and make sure they secured some players they're really into, they have the ability.
01:23:07
Speaker 3: To do that.
01:23:07
Speaker 1: So I think they're one of the, like after we get outside of the top 10, the Cardinals are probably the most interesting team to monitor their draft and just see how they attack it.
01:23:16
Speaker 2: I've heard them associated with like all sorts of high.
01:23:19
Speaker 1: School hitting profiles and throughout the spring, whether that would be like a Luke Williams or a Bo Lawrence or a Taj Marchand. A lot of these like helium high school hitters. I wonder if they wind up with one or multiple of those types.
01:23:36
Speaker 3: Seems like, I mean, Lawrence is a different category, but it does seem like a lot of high school hitters who are risky, like high school hitters that have not performed well previously. but have a lot of, had a lot, have tools, have some explosiveness to, to what they do.
01:23:57
Speaker 1: I feel like if you have this many picks and you don't take on a little bit of risk for some upside, like what's the point in having all those picks?
01:24:04
Speaker 2: Would you really want to play it safe with six picks?
01:24:07
Speaker 3: Why not just take the best players? Why do you have to take on more?
01:24:13
Speaker 1: Well, they might think they're the best player. Yeah.
01:24:15
Speaker 3: They might think that that's all right. That's true. Um, Yeah, I don't know. Some of those guys are.
01:24:21
Speaker 1: I don't know.
01:24:24
Speaker 3: I like guys that are a little bit more confident in the hitting ability.
01:24:28
Speaker 1: Well, unfortunately, that list runs out at like five this year, so.
01:24:33
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't think that's true. You don't think we have good hitters in this range still? Yeah, guys do. We don't have the same level of tools.
01:24:40
Speaker 2: You're having to sacrifice a lot of upside.
01:24:42
Speaker 1: Like, Jernad Vinkula, for instance, like, he's probably pretty confident in his pure hitting ability. He... makes a ton of contact, great track record, but you're, yeah, you're sacrificing the upside. So if you want to take, if you want to take on a little bit more upside, that's just kind of the calculation you're going to have to play most years. And then, you know, this year I think in particular, but I know I still like, like hit tools, like James Clark, Landon Tomei, Connor Como, Cole Prosek. Yeah. I think all those guys are more likely to go in front of Luke Williams and.
01:25:14
Speaker 3: Say like Ruiz, Noah Wilson. I mean, he has tools and can hit.
01:25:19
Speaker 2: I think there's some hit risk there too, though.
01:25:21
Speaker 3: With Wilson? Yeah. Fair.
01:25:23
Speaker 1: I think if there wasn't, we'd be talking about him in the first round pretty consistently.
01:25:28
Speaker 3: Yeah.
01:25:28
Speaker 2: Because his tools are really loud.
01:25:31
Speaker 3: Good tools. I don't know. He's hitting about 748 in games I see him play. He's always performed every time.
01:25:41
Speaker 1: I'm Yeah, it's hard to not like those guys who always just do it for you.
01:25:45
Speaker 2: The Kevin Parada story.
01:25:50
Speaker 3: Okay.
01:25:51
Speaker 1: I think I'm kind of out of bullets here on the mock draft, Ben. So if you guys want more, probably just go read it.
01:25:57
Speaker 2: But it was fun to talk through.
01:25:58
Speaker 1: It with you.
01:25:59
Speaker 2: What's the craziest pick that I had.
01:26:01
Speaker 3: In this one?
01:26:03
Speaker 2: Or what's the pick that you liked the most?
01:26:05
Speaker 3: Out of the whole mock draft? Take your pick, yeah.
01:26:08
Speaker 1: I didn't have Tyler Spangler here, so you can't take that one.
01:26:11
Speaker 3: I would say the craziest one is probably, uh, the Cardinals taking Luke Williams at 32. Um, yeah, that one would, uh, that would be very high in my estimation. Um, I could, maybe somebody does it, but, uh, and you might, yeah. So again, you, you might be right on the pick. That seems that would be a great outcome. I think for, for him. Um, Which one did I like the most? Yeah.
01:26:43
Speaker 2: I mean, Aiden Ruiz probably.
01:26:46
Speaker 3: In terms of value for the team?
01:26:48
Speaker 1: However you want to break it down.
01:26:50
Speaker 3: Yeah. You got Yankees taking Aiden Ruiz at 35. I would like that pick. I don't know. Yankees are doing some good things in the Northeast. Ben Rice is leading Major League Baseball in OPS. Wow. Cam Schlittler is... He's going to be in the Cy Young conversation this year. So they're making some good decisions there.
01:27:15
Speaker 1: You know who's second in OPS in the league? Mickey Moniak.
01:27:21
Speaker 3: Wow. Just the way the Phillies drew it up. Cool. Maybe Carson Bolamon at 31. I don't know what to do with the Diamondbacks. I don't know what to do with Carson Bolamon. Cause it seems like he's.
01:27:37
Speaker 2: Been, I loved him last summer.
01:27:38
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:27:39
Speaker 3: I still like him a lot. I just don't know what, it seems like it's been some, some ups and downs more than you would have expected.
01:27:44
Speaker 1: Yeah. It just feels like the velocity has not really been there to the level that teams anticipated or hoped, but I don't think he's pitched poorly. I think it's just more of a question of like how much power is there with Beaumont that has caused him to get passed up by some other high school pitchers in this class. He's certainly not slinging one-on-one out of the left hand like some I mean, like one, I think. Yeah, you know the guy who I don't understand why he's not talked about higher is Coleman Borthwick. I have him 34 to the Pirates out of South Walton High in Florida. Coleman Borthwick, I think, is just a monster. And he's dominating on both sides of the ball this spring. He's like a legitimately good hitter and athlete in high school. infielder at least I'm fully in on him as a pitcher at the next level but he's been up to 100 miles per hour he has a filthy breaking ball he throws strikes he's got a change up he's physical like maybe the delivery is a little odd but I if this guy went in the middle of the first round on talent I could completely buy it I'm surprised we don't hear his name more Uh-huh.
01:29:01
Speaker 3: As in more in the first round?
01:29:03
Speaker 1: I'm surprised I don't hear his name more in the first round. Like, oh, this team is considering Coleman Borthwick at X range. Like, I almost always hear him at the back of the first and in the comp. He's constantly talked about in the comp. But, like, Joe Rojas getting mentioned in the middle of the first, Brody Bumila, Logan Schmidt. I don't think Coleman Borthwick is a different tier of talent than those guys. He just throws right-handed. Tell me why I'm wrong.
01:29:28
Speaker 3: I don't think you're wrong. I think he belongs in the same group. I think left-handed pitching gets overrated. I'm not saying it's not valuable, but sometimes the gap of people's perception of how much more valuable a lefty is or what level of stuff you need to have as a lefty compared to a righty gets exaggerated when you have a high school right-handed pitcher who's, like you said, has thrown 100 with a lot of strikes, repeats the delivery, has a flashing a plus slider or two.
01:30:00
Speaker 1: It's, do you know what I also like too? There is some, I think he has tremendous baseball IQ. And I also think that there was, so he came out earlier this spring throwing lighter, right? He was like low nineties, not showing a lot of velocity, just reach around and talking to some scouts about that. Like I wasn't too concerned about it. And part of the reason why I wasn't too concerned about it is because I had talked to scouts who knew that like, apparently the game plan was, for Borthwick this spring was he's playing on both sides of the ball. They're a very good high school team with deep post-season aspirations, and they knew it was going to be a long season. And I'd heard that, like, Borthwick was like, okay, I'm going to kind of ease into the season, not going to, like, unload all my velocity early on. Like, he was pacing himself in his high school season, and now we're seeing the velocity.
01:30:53
Speaker 2: Like, he's consistently in the mid-to-upper 90s. He touched 100, and.
01:30:58
Speaker 1: One of the last few weeks on his outings, like I feel like that speaks to a level of maturity with a high school pitcher that I'm just pretty impressed by. Like his ability to hold back when he's got a bunch of scouts with radar guns behind him is impressive to me. The fact that he's throwing his hardest velocity deep into the season, I think just as like a testament to his arm talent and the strength that he has. I also feel like he has one of the best combinations of current power and and command in this class like he really can throw strikes at a high level i feel like the knocks against him are he's a little bit bigger maybe like there are some physical concerns with how big he is i don't share them personally but i could understand if you did and then he's right-handed outside of that i don't really like what's the knock on him.
01:31:49
Speaker 3: I don't i don't even think there is one i don't even think those are knocks.
01:31:53
Speaker 1: So what's so what's a knock that Is there an element of his game that you feel like I am too bullish on or that I, like, do you think there's a question about a third pitch?
01:32:04
Speaker 3: Like, are you less excited about the changeup? Yeah, maybe changeup is one, but just the fact that he's a high school pitcher is the bigger one. But yeah, like you said, he just threw in the state semifinals, I think it was yesterday. It was up to 98. Got the W for him.
01:32:22
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been one of the most impressive two-way players in high school baseball this year. So I just feel like he's he's going to be a monster in pro ball. And I don't know, for whatever reason, it does feel like if you're a high school righty, that conveys more risk than a high school lefty. Like teams seem to tolerate, like you said, either value or tolerate the risk of a lefty more than a righty for whatever reason. It's a.
01:32:48
Speaker 3: I would not be surprised if he goes somewhere in the back of the first round, but I also think a lot of these high school pitchers that we're talking about in consideration for that back half of the first round range will end up going somewhere in the comp round and still getting paid pretty good. But there's also a lot of teams that will just say like, let's take a bat or a college arm with our first pick and then with our next pick somewhere in the 30s or 40s or maybe 50s, then we'll then we'll go shopping for an arm like, you know, whether it's Borthwick or Logan Schmidt or, you know, maybe somebody like a Savion Sims or a Caden Wachter, one of those type of guys.
01:33:32
Speaker 1: Cool. That's pretty in-depth coverage of our mock today. Yeah. I don't think I have anything else to add. Do you have anything to chime in on or mention before we get out of here, Ben?
01:33:44
Speaker 3: No. Looking forward to your next mock.
01:33:47
Speaker 1: Yeah.
01:33:48
Speaker 2: I'll have to make some calls.
01:33:50
Speaker 1: I don't know.
01:33:51
Speaker 2: I need to see when that's supposed to come out.
01:33:54
Speaker 1: We're in the middle of draft preview production now, so probably in a couple weeks, maybe three weeks from now. I think early June we've got another one coming. So I guess I've got more of a month or so. That'll be nice.
01:34:08
Speaker 3: All right.
01:34:09
Speaker 1: We'll see if Rock Chilowski is still sitting in the pole position on our next one. Probably will be.
01:34:17
Speaker 3: All right.
01:34:17
Speaker 1: Thanks, guys, for hanging out. Thanks for listening to the show. Appreciate it. Thanks for supporting BA, as always. Yeah, and for Ben, I'm Carlos. We'll see you guys next time.
01:34:26
Speaker 3: So long.
