WEBVTT
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Let's dive into the markets today, and I've got a
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special guest. Before we get into that, I do want
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to thank our sponsor, and that of course is I
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Trust Capital. You guys can get over to I Trust
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out with your tax prep prayers and your attorneys all
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Let's go over to our guest today, and before I
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do that, I want to hit a clip and then
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we'll bring on our guests. It's going to be Stephen
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from Canary Capital and we're going to talk about where
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the markets are going. But let me go into I
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know a lot of you have been watching the news
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over the weekend, So let's run that clip.
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Because of spiraling inflation of the Bolivar, a lot of
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people had turned to cryptocurrencies, mining ethereum and bitcoin in
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their homes in order to just have a stable source
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of cash. But the other side of this is the
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fact that there are multiple reports that the government itself
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has been looking to evade sanctions by doing sales of
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oil in tether, which they then move into bitcoin.
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And so much of this market moves on sentiment.
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So even the promise that perhaps the US government they
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came in might seize.
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These assets, hold on to it.
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That's a bull case for bitcoin if you have a
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stockpile such as that that isn't being liquidated.
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Right, very interesting stuff very quickly as we got to go.
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Is it a tailwind for just bitcoin or also a
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theoreum salon in some of these other coins?
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It's a rising tide lists all ships.
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In fact, XRP has had outsized performance, all right.
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So a couple of things there that will impact the market.
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And joining me now is Steve mcclark coming in as
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the CEO from Canary Capital bin on before.
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How are you Steven fantastic? How are you excellent, Happy
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New Year.
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So this is your first appearance on the network this year,
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so welcome in.
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What do you think this is.
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The first time I left the house in two weeks.
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I've been exhausted after such a year and I've just.
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You get a little bit of time off. I love it. Well,
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we're getting wet.
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We're back to work here, man, So we're going to
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talk and we're going to drill you with questions. And
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the first question I have you look at the things
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that have happened over the weekend. Obviously with Venezuela, this
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starts to put a lot of pressure both on energy
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markets you could say, precious metals and then also crypto.
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The markets seem to respond. I don't know if it
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was necessarily directly related to Venezuela, but when you look
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at some of the things that are happening, US oil
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stocks were up considerable across the board, and then of
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course you had these things which are everything from gold
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reserves to oil reserves, all of that is now in
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play within Venezuela, a country in our hemisphere. What do
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you think think is impactful on crypto in general from
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what's going on on a global perspective. Of how this
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plays into the markets.
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Well, first of all, it hit a little bit on commodities,
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oil and other commodities that come out of South America
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that has gone up in price. There's speculation that on
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the ability to produce as much oil as it has
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out of Venezuela, and Venezuela has the largest oil reserves
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in the world, so it's no accident that we invaded them.
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But getting into cryptocurrencies, that has also led into buying
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up of gold and cryptocurrencies, and I believe that's primarily
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due to mistrust of holding currencies from any country. And
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you know, when one country invades another country for whatever
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the reason is, it does create a bit of a bit.
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Of a panic. Sometimes sometimes everything just.
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Goes down in price, but in this particular instance, it
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has gone up in price.
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I do believe it's due to the anticipation of a week.
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Dollar, so weeker dollar.
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Obviously, this has been kind of our discussion for the
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last several years, is the debasement trade and looking at
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what we've seen in digital assets playing out. But you
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and I have gone back and forth on is this
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a bear market, is at the beginning of another bull run?
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Is for your cycle over.
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Your position was fairly strong last year, as you felt
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that we were heading into a deep bear market with
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what you're seeing right now, because it appears that we
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could have had tax loss harvesting taking place in December
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and then people just rebuying, or possibly what's happened just
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in the short few days with the Trump administration. Would
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you change your position right now for twenty twenty six.
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Would you be bearish or bullish right now?
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Well, it depends on the asset of If we're talking
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about bitcoin, we'll start there. I am bearish on bitcoin
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for this year. I do believe that October sixth was
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the absolute peak of this particular cycle for bitcoin, and
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we're now in the bare leg of the cycle. And
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you know, we discussed this before, several reasons why bitcoin
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has kind of you know, been pretty flat this year.
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But my expectation is, you know, bitcoin drop thirty percent
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from October sixth, and I expect another twenty to thirty
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percent down from here over the next six to nine
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months until we hit another trough and then we're you know,
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back into the next the next cycle, and back into
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a bull market. I don't expect to see a new
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all time high in Bitcoin in twenty twenty six. Now,
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most cryptocurrencies are going to follow Bitcoin, right, but I
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do believe there's a diversion's happening and the team of
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twenty twenty six it's going to be building, and it's
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going to be primarily tokenization of railroad assets, including stable
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coins and any protocol that is heavily involved in this,
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and that does include XRP, Ledger or anything that's building
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real world applications for this technology, which also include hedera.
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I believe that those two assets are going to diverge
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from Bitcoin in this cycle. Now, does that mean that
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they're going to go up triple, quadruple and twenty twenty six.
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Probably not.
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I'm expecting low double digit growth and price in twenty
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twenty six for the handful of crypto assets that fall
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outside of Bitcoin and all of its followers. But I
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do expect to see, you know, probably positive returns, if.
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Not flat, while Bitcoin's down thirty percent.
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I'm looking at the list of ETFs that you have
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over on Canary Capital, the XRP one we have right there,
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which has been just an appose stellar performer for you guys.
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Then you've got, of course the Marinade Salana etf h
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Bar you just mentioned was just went live, and then
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of course like Coin.
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And we'll talk about Sue in a minute.
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I know you guys are bringing one on for that,
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and I want to kind of get into that a
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little bit. You're claiming that right now the brethren of Bitcoin,
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which I would say would be most likely Eth and
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a lot of the all coins that nest up underneath Bitcoin.
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Typically when it goes up, those all coins go with it.
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We've witnessed that just over the last three days. Those
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are the ones you say are potentially in for lower
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performance versus these Is that what I'm hearing?
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Absolutely, I agree that Eth will probably follow Bitcoin down.
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A lot of the Bitcoin like tokens, which include privacy
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coins by the way, they'll either follow Bitcoin down or
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they'll diverge as privacy. I do think that you know,
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Minera z, cash light Coin, all of those all have
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either either the either full privacy, they have privacy components,
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so they could diverge. They should diverge, will they actually
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I don't know. I'm waiting to see, but.
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But but I am really focused on the.
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Theme of the year, and that is that is tokenization
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and anything that's building really new unique tokenization should fall
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into that category. And that does include ADERA, includes XRP Ledger,
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it includes soul Suite, say Injective. Those are all chains
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that we really like for that, so we'll see what
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happens there.
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Steven you has mentioned a lot of tokens. Are those
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all going to be ETFs in the Canary roster this year?
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We hope. So I mean that that is really and again,
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you know when we're.
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Talking about like what we're what we're focusing on, We're
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focusing on any blockchain or technology that is focused.
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On tokenization world ward aspecta and the.
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Ones that are doing it from a new perspective. I'm
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particularly interested. A lot of people already do it on ETH.
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But what's happening with ETH is companies like JP Morgan
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just simply take the code or soft fork it out
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and then build their own so they're not even utilized,
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they're just using the code. And I see a lot
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more of that. That is one of the downfalls of
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ETH for being around, so long as you can simply
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fork it and build your own either public or private network.
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What about Ondo, I mean, this is one that has
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been in the RBA space for a while and has
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somewhat led it.
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What's your position on that.
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Yeah, I mean I expect great things out of Ondo.
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It's not one that we've been particularly focused on recently,
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but it is one that I've been watching, and I
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do believe that they're going to be doing a lot
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in tokenization as well.
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All right, I've got a clip here because this gets
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us into the theme that you're talking about versus the
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theme that some other analysts are talking about. This is
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a clip of Tom Lee talking about bitcoin.
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Take a look, You're.
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Back on the horse of predicting bitcoin, even though it
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didn't work out last year.
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It did not you know, it's like, no, I would
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not say.
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That you're a terrible financial advisor based on trying to
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predict bitcoin.
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I don't know who could could do that. So I'm
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not going to hold your feet to the fire.
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But as I said, you're getting right back on the horse.
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Fifty two hundred and fifty thousand. Yeah, you can bleep
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me out too if I just say the number.
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Yeah, in twenty twenty six, if bitcoin gets to two
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hundred or two hundred and fifty thousand, it would be
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breaking the four Yer cycle. So that's sort of part
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of our view is that this you know, if you
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file the fouryer cycle, bitcoin should be down this year.
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But I think that there are tailwinds that are building.
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And part of it is we kind of reset leverage
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on October tenth with that big shock, right, and now
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I think there is still institutional adoption taking place, and
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Wall Street is still building a lot of products on
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the blockchain, and then we have US government support. So
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I think these are tailwinds that help bitcoin recover this year.
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All right, So just.
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To set the table here, just everybody knows we're not
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picking on Tom. This guy has been right for a
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lot of times about bitcoin. He just happened to be
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wrong last year of it hitting an all time high
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and I think it was up to two hundred k.
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Now he's doubling down like a good analyst always does,
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including yourself, Steven, But how are we so far apart
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between you and Tom Lee? He's going all in. You're
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telling me bitcoin is the last thing I should buy.
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Well, look, I'm going to say that I was wrong
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as well. For twenty twenty five. My prediction was one
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hundred and forty thousand. We didn't quite get there.
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You were much closer. Come on, come on, you give
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yourself a little wrong is wrong? Right?
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I mean this isn't hand gar dates, but it is,
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you know, it is somewhat and I and I did
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say that I expected a top to be in October,
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so you know, I think I think the Binance situation
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sort of ended the rally a little, a little prematurely
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on October tenth. We could we have gotten one forty maybe,
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but who knows. Regardless of my prediction was wrong. But
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what I'm going to say is that there's not a
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whole lot of liquidity in the markets right now.
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And that goes across.
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The board, whether it's crypto, whether it's equities, even the
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bond market, there's a lack of liquidity.
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It's the reason.
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Why the FED said that they were going to end
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quantitative tightening or unwinding the balance sheet on December first,
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because they lacked liquidity. The banks lacked liquidity, and they
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needed enough liquidity to be able to service the repo market.
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So even even the banks don't have liquidity. But retail
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is the primary driver here of a lot of prices
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in crypto.
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So without liquidity.
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In retail, investors, I just don't see how you're going
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to do it, and there's not enough institutional money coming
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in as fast and as swiftly as everybody thinks it
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is to actually offset that. I mean, it is coming in,
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but it's a very slow process. And I don't believe
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that they're one hundred percent focused on bitcoin anymore. They're
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focused on you know, areas where there are real world
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applications that are being built, particularly you know, asset tokenization,
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and that's just where everybody's focus is right now. That's
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just the reality of it. They're not they're not speculating
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on bitcoin anymore. And by the way, the speculators, which
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is mostly the retail market where there is liquidity, it's
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moved to prediction markets. It's like, you know, people aren't
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betting on mean coins anymore. When there's a real edge
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on betting in prediction markets, or at least people have
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a perceived edge that they can predict things accurately. And
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even over the weekend, you know, there's there was a
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couple of guys that made you know, a ton of
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money betting on whether or not we would arrest of
269
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Venezuelan president. Right, Yeah, So the prediction markets are insane
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right now, and that's where retail liquidity has moved.
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I'm looking at the overall market right now, fear and
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greed is up to neutral. We haven't seen the neutral
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position in a while, so that in itself pretty intense.
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And then of course what we're seeing on overall market
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cap holding at three point two looks like a three
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point two trillion. This would counterbalance your position on this
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outside of maybe something like XRP, salonas up, you know,
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pretty much everything up, XRP being the outlier here at
279
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almost ten percent. But how would you argue that of
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the fact that we have seen a consistent growth really
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since the eighteenth of December, where we were at two
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point eight trillion. Now market cap is sitting at three
283
00:14:53.639 --> 00:14:57.440
point two trillion. In crypto, that's a pretty it's a
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00:14:57.480 --> 00:15:00.000
pretty dynamic run. How would you argue that?
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Well, first of all, to my point, you know, XRP
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up almost ten percent right now. It is one of
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the divergent assets, and I do believe that, you know,
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00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:12.320
XRP and others similar to that are going to continue
289
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to be divergent. But even this this short term rally,
290
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I do believe it's only a short term rally and
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it's not going to persist through twenty twenty six. I
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do agree with you a statement that you said earlier
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where there was a lot of uh, you know, tax
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loss selling at the end of the year. I mean
295
00:15:30.440 --> 00:15:32.159
I did it myself, right, It's like, Okay, you have
296
00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:34.279
an opportunity to take some tax losses, let's do it.
297
00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:38.240
And a lot of people in the market did do that,
298
00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:40.799
which kind of was a drag through the month of December.
299
00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:44.159
And now the markets have opened up again, you don't
300
00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:47.399
have the tax loss selling pressure anymore. You know, people
301
00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:50.120
are still going to speculate, people are still going to buy,
302
00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:54.039
but you know, you know, three percent isn't a lot
303
00:15:54.159 --> 00:15:57.519
considering how much Bitcoin has come down. You know, I
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00:15:57.600 --> 00:16:02.879
do believe that bitcoin ether, maybe even Solana will continue
305
00:16:02.919 --> 00:16:06.360
to drag down throughout twenty twenty six as a month
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of January goes away.
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00:16:08.720 --> 00:16:12.759
Okay, well, I mean this is interesting to I'm glad
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00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:15.240
that we always get you on because you always bring
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00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:17.679
kind of a little bit of reality check to me,
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00:16:18.559 --> 00:16:21.559
even though I'm usually much more bullish in the markets
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00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:25.120
than I just try to stay always bullish. But one
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00:16:25.120 --> 00:16:28.279
thing I'm watching right now are the digital asset treasuries,
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00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:31.840
and I continue to track what Bitmine is doing. They
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00:16:31.879 --> 00:16:34.759
provided and of course we have their shareholder meeting coming
315
00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:38.320
up here pretty soon, and they keep talking about the
316
00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:42.440
potential of what I think could be happening, and that
317
00:16:42.600 --> 00:16:45.799
is this right here, is that we think there's a
318
00:16:45.879 --> 00:16:49.200
merger brewing. And of course Tom Lee's stock is up
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00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:54.360
fourteen percent now as we've seen him ask these shareholders
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00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:57.639
to approve this dramatic share increase. Do you think that
321
00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.639
if Tom Lee were to go out and acquire another
322
00:17:01.000 --> 00:17:06.319
one or two digital asset treasury companies, do you feel
323
00:17:06.319 --> 00:17:08.799
like that would be positive for Ethereum in general.
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00:17:10.079 --> 00:17:12.920
Look, I think this is positive for not just Ethereum,
325
00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:18.160
but for dats across the board, for all crypto assets
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00:17:18.200 --> 00:17:22.640
across the board. I do believe that consolidation needs to happen.
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00:17:23.720 --> 00:17:26.119
A lot of these dats that came out, they had
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00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:29.000
operating companies that were losing money, had massive debt, they
329
00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.559
were poorly ran, and they looked at the crypto bros
330
00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:37.319
As a lifeline to keep their publicly traded businesses, you know,
331
00:17:37.599 --> 00:17:40.240
alive and well so they don't have to face bankruptcy.
332
00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:43.400
And they're like, yeah, sure, we'll do anything you want.
333
00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:46.200
You want us to add, you know, random crypto asset
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00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:48.720
to the treasury, we'll do it now. Granted, you know,
335
00:17:48.759 --> 00:17:50.400
I think there's a lot of legitimate ones out there
336
00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:54.440
as well, but most of them were you know, busted
337
00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:58.759
public companies that needed a lifeline, right and the best
338
00:17:58.759 --> 00:18:01.960
thing for the market right now is number one consolidation.
339
00:18:03.079 --> 00:18:05.240
Put some of these together, get rid of bad operating
340
00:18:05.279 --> 00:18:07.960
businesses that are that are legacy, that shouldn't be there anymore,
341
00:18:08.359 --> 00:18:11.960
and focus around one good operating business, kind of like
342
00:18:12.000 --> 00:18:16.599
micro strategy. Micro Strategy has a profitable operating business that
343
00:18:16.640 --> 00:18:19.680
pays all the other bills, and that way bitcoin can
344
00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:20.599
do what bitcoin does.
345
00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:22.680
And I think these other dats are going to need
346
00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:25.319
that as well. So I hope.
347
00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:30.359
That that bitmine acquires other eth dats, and I hope
348
00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:33.440
that there's other consolidation across other assets as well.
349
00:18:34.279 --> 00:18:35.799
So do you think he will?
350
00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:38.319
I mean, based on what you're seeing in the market
351
00:18:38.359 --> 00:18:40.839
right now, do you think that's a possibility that could happen?
352
00:18:41.920 --> 00:18:43.880
I do? I mean not that I have, I mean
353
00:18:43.920 --> 00:18:47.240
I have no information you know what whatsoever?
354
00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:52.279
Other yes, speculation, wouldn't it sound like a good business.
355
00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:54.799
Yeah, Okay, it's a smart move.
356
00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:56.799
It's smart move for him, and it's good for the industry.
357
00:18:57.240 --> 00:19:00.119
Yeah, it's especially good for some of these dats that are,
358
00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:04.160
you know, failing. Yeah, but I think that consolidation will
359
00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:06.799
really help also the price of ethereum, the price of
360
00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:10.160
other assets. You know, right now, there's too many dats,
361
00:19:10.640 --> 00:19:14.200
and it's they look like closed in funds, right, you know,
362
00:19:14.319 --> 00:19:17.920
old closed in funds. When there's less demand than they
363
00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:20.559
traded a discount. When there's more demand, they traded a premium.
364
00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:22.400
And the fact that most of these dats are trading
365
00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:25.720
at fifty percent discounts shows that there's a very little
366
00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.279
demand for them. And if there is some consolidation and
367
00:19:28.319 --> 00:19:31.000
some understanding of okay, this is the ethereum dat, this
368
00:19:31.079 --> 00:19:35.359
is the bitcoin data, then I do believe that the
369
00:19:35.400 --> 00:19:37.839
world will be a better place and crypto prices will
370
00:19:37.839 --> 00:19:38.799
be a little bit more stable.
371
00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:44.039
Let's talk about the new FED chair likelihood to occur.
372
00:19:44.680 --> 00:19:47.240
It's going to be the most consequential events of twenty
373
00:19:47.319 --> 00:19:50.799
twenty six. I still agree with that to a certain extent. However,
374
00:19:51.759 --> 00:19:54.599
the question is do you think Hassett is going to
375
00:19:54.599 --> 00:19:56.440
He's in the lead right now? Do you think he
376
00:19:56.519 --> 00:20:02.160
will continue to hold that position as possibly an assignment
377
00:20:02.200 --> 00:20:05.319
could be announced any time now by the administration.
378
00:20:05.480 --> 00:20:07.720
What's your position, Yeah.
379
00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:10.680
He's probably my personal leading candidate of who I think
380
00:20:10.720 --> 00:20:13.839
is going to get appointed. You know, who knows what
381
00:20:13.920 --> 00:20:17.559
will happen. You know, I'm not behind the scenes there,
382
00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:20.480
so I don't know, but Hassett is. You know, if
383
00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:21.720
I were to bet on it, that's who I would
384
00:20:21.720 --> 00:20:25.279
bet on. And then the appointment of a new FED
385
00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:29.000
chair is also extremely important for crypto prices too, So
386
00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:31.799
a lot of people believe that crypto prices will just
387
00:20:31.920 --> 00:20:34.559
instantly start ripping and hit all new time highs when
388
00:20:34.720 --> 00:20:37.319
when he's appointed or when he's named. I believe it's
389
00:20:37.319 --> 00:20:39.839
going to take some time because right now, if you
390
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:42.839
look at rates across the board and you look at
391
00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:46.680
the shape of the curve, the curve is flat, but
392
00:20:47.039 --> 00:20:51.000
short term rates are still higher than you know, you know,
393
00:20:51.160 --> 00:20:54.279
six month, one year, two year, even five year. So
394
00:20:54.920 --> 00:20:58.160
the FED is probably behind at least one twenty five
395
00:20:58.200 --> 00:21:02.119
basis point cut to create a at least a normalized
396
00:21:02.160 --> 00:21:05.720
market where we don't have kind of inversion, and that
397
00:21:05.799 --> 00:21:09.759
needs to happen and then beyond that, it's going to
398
00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:12.920
take some time for the FED to both cut rates well,
399
00:21:12.960 --> 00:21:17.200
first of all, for him to be nominated and then confirmed,
400
00:21:17.720 --> 00:21:20.039
and then for the Fed to actually start cutting rates
401
00:21:20.079 --> 00:21:23.119
and for that to take effect into him to global
402
00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:26.079
monetary supply in order to cause prices to go up.
403
00:21:26.519 --> 00:21:29.960
So my estimate of when the next trough is is
404
00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:32.640
going to probably be this summer into the summer, and
405
00:21:32.680 --> 00:21:37.160
then U the bear market begins again, likely in the fall,
406
00:21:37.319 --> 00:21:38.599
sometime in Q three Q four.
407
00:21:39.160 --> 00:21:42.039
What do you make of these, uh, you know, these
408
00:21:42.079 --> 00:21:44.960
capital injections into the balance sheet right now that have
409
00:21:45.039 --> 00:21:47.119
been slowly coming in from the Fed.
410
00:21:47.039 --> 00:21:49.319
Over the last two weeks. Do you do you see
411
00:21:49.319 --> 00:21:50.759
that as any indicator on Q.
412
00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:54.559
Yeah, I mean really really, what that is right now
413
00:21:54.640 --> 00:21:57.000
is helping the banks for the most part and helping
414
00:21:57.720 --> 00:22:01.000
helping treasuries. You know, all they're doing is keeping the
415
00:22:01.000 --> 00:22:05.079
ballot sheet stable, so as credits rolling off, they're just
416
00:22:05.119 --> 00:22:07.960
buying it back and buying it in the areas that
417
00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:10.640
they believe need the most help, which right now is
418
00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:13.440
the short end of the curve. We're really you know,
419
00:22:13.519 --> 00:22:15.640
a twenty five basis point could have helped as well,
420
00:22:16.079 --> 00:22:19.319
but buying assets on the short end is actually helping,
421
00:22:20.319 --> 00:22:23.519
you know, with banks with their their repo demand right
422
00:22:23.559 --> 00:22:25.440
now and their repeat demand is extremely high.
423
00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:30.400
Yeah, all right, So you're saying slow potential on cuts
424
00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:33.319
for the spring. Do you think we will get a
425
00:22:33.440 --> 00:22:36.400
cut before May?
426
00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:36.920
I do.
427
00:22:37.079 --> 00:22:40.359
I do believe the next FED meeting will produce one
428
00:22:40.440 --> 00:22:43.400
more twenty five basis point cut. And again it's just
429
00:22:43.519 --> 00:22:47.359
to save the banks, you know. I think if there's
430
00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:49.319
not a twenty five basis point cut, and if they
431
00:22:49.400 --> 00:22:53.319
had not stopped, you know, bleeding off the ballot sheet,
432
00:22:53.359 --> 00:22:54.640
then we probably would have seen a.
433
00:22:54.640 --> 00:22:56.920
Bank failure at the end of the year or even
434
00:22:57.559 --> 00:22:58.160
coming soon.
435
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:01.119
But again, I want to point out that a lot
436
00:23:01.119 --> 00:23:05.000
of people think that, well, look, this is all easing
437
00:23:05.200 --> 00:23:07.480
and it's going to cause asset prices to rise.
438
00:23:08.319 --> 00:23:10.599
This isn't enough to cause asset prices to rise.
439
00:23:10.880 --> 00:23:13.839
This is a band aid to basically stop some bleeding
440
00:23:13.839 --> 00:23:17.000
at the banks. It's not enough to really do any
441
00:23:17.079 --> 00:23:18.799
more positive damage than that.
442
00:23:19.799 --> 00:23:22.720
Okay, well, listen, you got some good news here that
443
00:23:22.799 --> 00:23:26.160
I have to talk about, and that is suis is
444
00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:26.839
that what we're calling it?
445
00:23:26.920 --> 00:23:27.640
Or is it sweets?
446
00:23:28.720 --> 00:23:33.559
Well, technically it's sweet. Is how you say it. But yes,
447
00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:34.400
that is, that is.
448
00:23:34.359 --> 00:23:36.359
The yes is coming soon.
449
00:23:36.599 --> 00:23:39.480
You know, we've had Sweet team on before and we've
450
00:23:39.559 --> 00:23:42.079
kind of gone back and forth with Evan and Adanie
451
00:23:42.200 --> 00:23:45.279
on the pronunciation of it. But the good thing Well,
452
00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:47.240
I mean, you could have selected a lot of different
453
00:23:47.279 --> 00:23:48.119
assets here.
454
00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:50.960
Why go the Sweet route?
455
00:23:51.759 --> 00:23:53.920
Well, first of all, we're a really big fan of
456
00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:57.279
the Mist and Labs team. A lot of them came
457
00:23:57.319 --> 00:24:01.599
from Facebook. They had worked on if you remember old Facebook, Yeah,
458
00:24:01.799 --> 00:24:07.680
Libra tokenization project at stable cooint and I just you know,
459
00:24:07.839 --> 00:24:10.519
they're they're a very high caliber team. It is a
460
00:24:10.559 --> 00:24:13.039
top twenty token So those are some of the things
461
00:24:13.039 --> 00:24:15.200
that we were looking at when we were selecting our
462
00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:19.240
products suite. But I do believe that, given given their
463
00:24:19.279 --> 00:24:21.400
experience and given what they're what they have done, and
464
00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:23.400
what they are doing right now, that they're going to
465
00:24:23.480 --> 00:24:25.319
be one of the leaders in tokenization.
466
00:24:25.559 --> 00:24:27.880
So we're you.
467
00:24:27.799 --> 00:24:30.839
Know, betting really big on what Misston Laps is doing
468
00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:31.519
and what they're doing.
469
00:24:32.880 --> 00:24:34.880
Well, listen, guys, we are going to be watching the
470
00:24:34.920 --> 00:24:37.240
markets very closely, so Steve and I'm going to get
471
00:24:37.279 --> 00:24:40.039
you back on as we start to tread through this
472
00:24:40.160 --> 00:24:43.279
current pump that the markets are in right now and
473
00:24:43.440 --> 00:24:44.160
see if you.
474
00:24:44.200 --> 00:24:45.279
Are right or wrong.
475
00:24:45.559 --> 00:24:48.200
A check back, probably in the first quarter, would be due.
476
00:24:48.279 --> 00:24:50.359
I think with you, so we'll definitely get you back.
477
00:24:50.759 --> 00:24:53.799
Thanks for coming in today. I appreciate it absolutely. Thanks
478
00:24:53.799 --> 00:25:02.799
for having me, Paul. If you like this video, like
479
00:25:02.839 --> 00:25:06.039
and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join
480
00:25:06.119 --> 00:25:08.920
our free private member group the links in the description
1
00:00:00.040 --> 00:00:01.960
Let's dive into the markets today, and I've got a
2
00:00:02.000 --> 00:00:04.400
special guest. Before we get into that, I do want
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00:00:04.400 --> 00:00:06.519
to thank our sponsor, and that of course is I
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Trust Capital. You guys can get over to I Trust
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and enjoy setting up your own CRYPTOIRA. You can still
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get some tax benefits for that in this year for
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last year's tax year, so make sure and check that
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out with your tax prep prayers and your attorneys all
9
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that good stuff. But the key here with I Trust
10
00:00:23.640 --> 00:00:27.559
is you've got the complete control over managing it inside
11
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your own I Trust Crypto IRA. So very easy to
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set up, and you've got access to almost everything, all
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kinds of crypto as well as gold and silver. Go
14
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over to I Trust and of course use our link
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down below. It's going to give you a one hundred
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dollars funny roard to get started. It'll be worth your time.
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Let's go over to our guest today, and before I
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do that, I want to hit a clip and then
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we'll bring on our guests. It's going to be Stephen
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from Canary Capital and we're going to talk about where
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the markets are going. But let me go into I
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know a lot of you have been watching the news
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over the weekend, So let's run that clip.
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Because of spiraling inflation of the Bolivar, a lot of
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people had turned to cryptocurrencies, mining ethereum and bitcoin in
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their homes in order to just have a stable source
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of cash. But the other side of this is the
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fact that there are multiple reports that the government itself
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has been looking to evade sanctions by doing sales of
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oil in tether, which they then move into bitcoin.
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And so much of this market moves on sentiment.
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So even the promise that perhaps the US government they
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came in might seize.
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These assets, hold on to it.
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That's a bull case for bitcoin if you have a
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stockpile such as that that isn't being liquidated.
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Right, very interesting stuff very quickly as we got to go.
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Is it a tailwind for just bitcoin or also a
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theoreum salon in some of these other coins?
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It's a rising tide lists all ships.
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In fact, XRP has had outsized performance, all right.
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So a couple of things there that will impact the market.
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And joining me now is Steve mcclark coming in as
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the CEO from Canary Capital bin on before.
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How are you Steven fantastic? How are you excellent, Happy
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New Year.
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So this is your first appearance on the network this year,
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so welcome in.
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What do you think this is.
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The first time I left the house in two weeks.
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I've been exhausted after such a year and I've just.
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You get a little bit of time off. I love it. Well,
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we're getting wet.
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We're back to work here, man, So we're going to
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talk and we're going to drill you with questions. And
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the first question I have you look at the things
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that have happened over the weekend. Obviously with Venezuela, this
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starts to put a lot of pressure both on energy
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markets you could say, precious metals and then also crypto.
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The markets seem to respond. I don't know if it
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was necessarily directly related to Venezuela, but when you look
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at some of the things that are happening, US oil
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stocks were up considerable across the board, and then of
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course you had these things which are everything from gold
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reserves to oil reserves, all of that is now in
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play within Venezuela, a country in our hemisphere. What do
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you think think is impactful on crypto in general from
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what's going on on a global perspective. Of how this
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plays into the markets.
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Well, first of all, it hit a little bit on commodities,
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oil and other commodities that come out of South America
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that has gone up in price. There's speculation that on
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the ability to produce as much oil as it has
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out of Venezuela, and Venezuela has the largest oil reserves
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in the world, so it's no accident that we invaded them.
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But getting into cryptocurrencies, that has also led into buying
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up of gold and cryptocurrencies, and I believe that's primarily
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due to mistrust of holding currencies from any country. And
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you know, when one country invades another country for whatever
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the reason is, it does create a bit of a bit.
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Of a panic. Sometimes sometimes everything just.
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Goes down in price, but in this particular instance, it
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has gone up in price.
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I do believe it's due to the anticipation of a week.
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Dollar, so weeker dollar.
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Obviously, this has been kind of our discussion for the
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last several years, is the debasement trade and looking at
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what we've seen in digital assets playing out. But you
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and I have gone back and forth on is this
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a bear market, is at the beginning of another bull run?
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Is for your cycle over.
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Your position was fairly strong last year, as you felt
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that we were heading into a deep bear market with
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what you're seeing right now, because it appears that we
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could have had tax loss harvesting taking place in December
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and then people just rebuying, or possibly what's happened just
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in the short few days with the Trump administration. Would
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you change your position right now for twenty twenty six.
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Would you be bearish or bullish right now?
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Well, it depends on the asset of If we're talking
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about bitcoin, we'll start there. I am bearish on bitcoin
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for this year. I do believe that October sixth was
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the absolute peak of this particular cycle for bitcoin, and
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we're now in the bare leg of the cycle. And
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you know, we discussed this before, several reasons why bitcoin
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has kind of you know, been pretty flat this year.
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But my expectation is, you know, bitcoin drop thirty percent
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from October sixth, and I expect another twenty to thirty
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percent down from here over the next six to nine
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months until we hit another trough and then we're you know,
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back into the next the next cycle, and back into
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a bull market. I don't expect to see a new
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all time high in Bitcoin in twenty twenty six. Now,
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most cryptocurrencies are going to follow Bitcoin, right, but I
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do believe there's a diversion's happening and the team of
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twenty twenty six it's going to be building, and it's
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going to be primarily tokenization of railroad assets, including stable
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coins and any protocol that is heavily involved in this,
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and that does include XRP, Ledger or anything that's building
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real world applications for this technology, which also include hedera.
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I believe that those two assets are going to diverge
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from Bitcoin in this cycle. Now, does that mean that
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they're going to go up triple, quadruple and twenty twenty six.
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Probably not.
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I'm expecting low double digit growth and price in twenty
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twenty six for the handful of crypto assets that fall
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outside of Bitcoin and all of its followers. But I
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do expect to see, you know, probably positive returns, if.
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Not flat, while Bitcoin's down thirty percent.
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I'm looking at the list of ETFs that you have
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over on Canary Capital, the XRP one we have right there,
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which has been just an appose stellar performer for you guys.
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Then you've got, of course the Marinade Salana etf h
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Bar you just mentioned was just went live, and then
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of course like Coin.
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And we'll talk about Sue in a minute.
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I know you guys are bringing one on for that,
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and I want to kind of get into that a
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little bit. You're claiming that right now the brethren of Bitcoin,
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which I would say would be most likely Eth and
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a lot of the all coins that nest up underneath Bitcoin.
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Typically when it goes up, those all coins go with it.
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We've witnessed that just over the last three days. Those
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are the ones you say are potentially in for lower
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performance versus these Is that what I'm hearing?
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Absolutely, I agree that Eth will probably follow Bitcoin down.
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A lot of the Bitcoin like tokens, which include privacy
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coins by the way, they'll either follow Bitcoin down or
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they'll diverge as privacy. I do think that you know,
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Minera z, cash light Coin, all of those all have
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either either the either full privacy, they have privacy components,
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so they could diverge. They should diverge, will they actually
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I don't know. I'm waiting to see, but.
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But but I am really focused on the.
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Theme of the year, and that is that is tokenization
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and anything that's building really new unique tokenization should fall
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into that category. And that does include ADERA, includes XRP Ledger,
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it includes soul Suite, say Injective. Those are all chains
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that we really like for that, so we'll see what
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happens there.
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Steven you has mentioned a lot of tokens. Are those
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all going to be ETFs in the Canary roster this year?
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We hope. So I mean that that is really and again,
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you know when we're.
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Talking about like what we're what we're focusing on, We're
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focusing on any blockchain or technology that is focused.
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On tokenization world ward aspecta and the.
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Ones that are doing it from a new perspective. I'm
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particularly interested. A lot of people already do it on ETH.
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But what's happening with ETH is companies like JP Morgan
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just simply take the code or soft fork it out
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and then build their own so they're not even utilized,
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they're just using the code. And I see a lot
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more of that. That is one of the downfalls of
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ETH for being around, so long as you can simply
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fork it and build your own either public or private network.
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What about Ondo, I mean, this is one that has
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been in the RBA space for a while and has
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somewhat led it.
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What's your position on that.
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Yeah, I mean I expect great things out of Ondo.
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It's not one that we've been particularly focused on recently,
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but it is one that I've been watching, and I
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do believe that they're going to be doing a lot
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in tokenization as well.
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All right, I've got a clip here because this gets
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us into the theme that you're talking about versus the
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theme that some other analysts are talking about. This is
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a clip of Tom Lee talking about bitcoin.
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Take a look, You're.
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Back on the horse of predicting bitcoin, even though it
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didn't work out last year.
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It did not you know, it's like, no, I would
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not say.
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That you're a terrible financial advisor based on trying to
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predict bitcoin.
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I don't know who could could do that. So I'm
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not going to hold your feet to the fire.
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But as I said, you're getting right back on the horse.
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Fifty two hundred and fifty thousand. Yeah, you can bleep
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me out too if I just say the number.
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Yeah, in twenty twenty six, if bitcoin gets to two
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hundred or two hundred and fifty thousand, it would be
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breaking the four Yer cycle. So that's sort of part
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of our view is that this you know, if you
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file the fouryer cycle, bitcoin should be down this year.
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But I think that there are tailwinds that are building.
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And part of it is we kind of reset leverage
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on October tenth with that big shock, right, and now
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I think there is still institutional adoption taking place, and
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Wall Street is still building a lot of products on
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the blockchain, and then we have US government support. So
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I think these are tailwinds that help bitcoin recover this year.
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All right, So just.
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To set the table here, just everybody knows we're not
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picking on Tom. This guy has been right for a
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lot of times about bitcoin. He just happened to be
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wrong last year of it hitting an all time high
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and I think it was up to two hundred k.
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Now he's doubling down like a good analyst always does,
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including yourself, Steven, But how are we so far apart
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between you and Tom Lee? He's going all in. You're
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telling me bitcoin is the last thing I should buy.
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Well, look, I'm going to say that I was wrong
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as well. For twenty twenty five. My prediction was one
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hundred and forty thousand. We didn't quite get there.
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You were much closer. Come on, come on, you give
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yourself a little wrong is wrong? Right?
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I mean this isn't hand gar dates, but it is,
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you know, it is somewhat and I and I did
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say that I expected a top to be in October,
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so you know, I think I think the Binance situation
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sort of ended the rally a little, a little prematurely
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on October tenth. We could we have gotten one forty maybe,
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but who knows. Regardless of my prediction was wrong. But
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what I'm going to say is that there's not a
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whole lot of liquidity in the markets right now.
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And that goes across.
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The board, whether it's crypto, whether it's equities, even the
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bond market, there's a lack of liquidity.
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It's the reason.
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Why the FED said that they were going to end
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quantitative tightening or unwinding the balance sheet on December first,
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because they lacked liquidity. The banks lacked liquidity, and they
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needed enough liquidity to be able to service the repo market.
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So even even the banks don't have liquidity. But retail
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is the primary driver here of a lot of prices
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in crypto.
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So without liquidity.
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In retail, investors, I just don't see how you're going
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to do it, and there's not enough institutional money coming
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in as fast and as swiftly as everybody thinks it
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is to actually offset that. I mean, it is coming in,
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but it's a very slow process. And I don't believe
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that they're one hundred percent focused on bitcoin anymore. They're
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focused on you know, areas where there are real world
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applications that are being built, particularly you know, asset tokenization,
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and that's just where everybody's focus is right now. That's
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just the reality of it. They're not they're not speculating
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on bitcoin anymore. And by the way, the speculators, which
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is mostly the retail market where there is liquidity, it's
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moved to prediction markets. It's like, you know, people aren't
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betting on mean coins anymore. When there's a real edge
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on betting in prediction markets, or at least people have
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a perceived edge that they can predict things accurately. And
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even over the weekend, you know, there's there was a
267
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couple of guys that made you know, a ton of
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money betting on whether or not we would arrest of
269
00:14:01.000 --> 00:14:06.000
Venezuelan president. Right, Yeah, So the prediction markets are insane
270
00:14:06.080 --> 00:14:09.320
right now, and that's where retail liquidity has moved.
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I'm looking at the overall market right now, fear and
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00:14:12.399 --> 00:14:14.919
greed is up to neutral. We haven't seen the neutral
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position in a while, so that in itself pretty intense.
274
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And then of course what we're seeing on overall market
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cap holding at three point two looks like a three
276
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point two trillion. This would counterbalance your position on this
277
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outside of maybe something like XRP, salonas up, you know,
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pretty much everything up, XRP being the outlier here at
279
00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:43.519
almost ten percent. But how would you argue that of
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00:14:43.519 --> 00:14:46.919
the fact that we have seen a consistent growth really
281
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since the eighteenth of December, where we were at two
282
00:14:49.960 --> 00:14:53.600
point eight trillion. Now market cap is sitting at three
283
00:14:53.639 --> 00:14:57.440
point two trillion. In crypto, that's a pretty it's a
284
00:14:57.480 --> 00:15:00.000
pretty dynamic run. How would you argue that?
285
00:15:01.200 --> 00:15:03.679
Well, first of all, to my point, you know, XRP
286
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up almost ten percent right now. It is one of
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00:15:06.559 --> 00:15:09.440
the divergent assets, and I do believe that, you know,
288
00:15:09.639 --> 00:15:12.320
XRP and others similar to that are going to continue
289
00:15:12.360 --> 00:15:17.440
to be divergent. But even this this short term rally,
290
00:15:17.679 --> 00:15:19.559
I do believe it's only a short term rally and
291
00:15:20.120 --> 00:15:22.720
it's not going to persist through twenty twenty six. I
292
00:15:22.759 --> 00:15:25.080
do agree with you a statement that you said earlier
293
00:15:25.080 --> 00:15:27.360
where there was a lot of uh, you know, tax
294
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loss selling at the end of the year. I mean
295
00:15:30.440 --> 00:15:32.159
I did it myself, right, It's like, Okay, you have
296
00:15:32.200 --> 00:15:34.279
an opportunity to take some tax losses, let's do it.
297
00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:38.240
And a lot of people in the market did do that,
298
00:15:38.320 --> 00:15:40.799
which kind of was a drag through the month of December.
299
00:15:41.360 --> 00:15:44.159
And now the markets have opened up again, you don't
300
00:15:44.159 --> 00:15:47.399
have the tax loss selling pressure anymore. You know, people
301
00:15:47.399 --> 00:15:50.120
are still going to speculate, people are still going to buy,
302
00:15:50.600 --> 00:15:54.039
but you know, you know, three percent isn't a lot
303
00:15:54.159 --> 00:15:57.519
considering how much Bitcoin has come down. You know, I
304
00:15:57.600 --> 00:16:02.879
do believe that bitcoin ether, maybe even Solana will continue
305
00:16:02.919 --> 00:16:06.360
to drag down throughout twenty twenty six as a month
306
00:16:06.399 --> 00:16:07.320
of January goes away.
307
00:16:08.720 --> 00:16:12.759
Okay, well, I mean this is interesting to I'm glad
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00:16:13.120 --> 00:16:15.240
that we always get you on because you always bring
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00:16:15.320 --> 00:16:17.679
kind of a little bit of reality check to me,
310
00:16:18.559 --> 00:16:21.559
even though I'm usually much more bullish in the markets
311
00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:25.120
than I just try to stay always bullish. But one
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00:16:25.120 --> 00:16:28.279
thing I'm watching right now are the digital asset treasuries,
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00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:31.840
and I continue to track what Bitmine is doing. They
314
00:16:31.879 --> 00:16:34.759
provided and of course we have their shareholder meeting coming
315
00:16:34.840 --> 00:16:38.320
up here pretty soon, and they keep talking about the
316
00:16:38.360 --> 00:16:42.440
potential of what I think could be happening, and that
317
00:16:42.600 --> 00:16:45.799
is this right here, is that we think there's a
318
00:16:45.879 --> 00:16:49.200
merger brewing. And of course Tom Lee's stock is up
319
00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:54.360
fourteen percent now as we've seen him ask these shareholders
320
00:16:54.399 --> 00:16:57.639
to approve this dramatic share increase. Do you think that
321
00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.639
if Tom Lee were to go out and acquire another
322
00:17:01.000 --> 00:17:06.319
one or two digital asset treasury companies, do you feel
323
00:17:06.319 --> 00:17:08.799
like that would be positive for Ethereum in general.
324
00:17:10.079 --> 00:17:12.920
Look, I think this is positive for not just Ethereum,
325
00:17:13.000 --> 00:17:18.160
but for dats across the board, for all crypto assets
326
00:17:18.200 --> 00:17:22.640
across the board. I do believe that consolidation needs to happen.
327
00:17:23.720 --> 00:17:26.119
A lot of these dats that came out, they had
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00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:29.000
operating companies that were losing money, had massive debt, they
329
00:17:29.000 --> 00:17:32.559
were poorly ran, and they looked at the crypto bros
330
00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:37.319
As a lifeline to keep their publicly traded businesses, you know,
331
00:17:37.599 --> 00:17:40.240
alive and well so they don't have to face bankruptcy.
332
00:17:40.799 --> 00:17:43.400
And they're like, yeah, sure, we'll do anything you want.
333
00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:46.200
You want us to add, you know, random crypto asset
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00:17:46.240 --> 00:17:48.720
to the treasury, we'll do it now. Granted, you know,
335
00:17:48.759 --> 00:17:50.400
I think there's a lot of legitimate ones out there
336
00:17:50.400 --> 00:17:54.440
as well, but most of them were you know, busted
337
00:17:54.480 --> 00:17:58.759
public companies that needed a lifeline, right and the best
338
00:17:58.759 --> 00:18:01.960
thing for the market right now is number one consolidation.
339
00:18:03.079 --> 00:18:05.240
Put some of these together, get rid of bad operating
340
00:18:05.279 --> 00:18:07.960
businesses that are that are legacy, that shouldn't be there anymore,
341
00:18:08.359 --> 00:18:11.960
and focus around one good operating business, kind of like
342
00:18:12.000 --> 00:18:16.599
micro strategy. Micro Strategy has a profitable operating business that
343
00:18:16.640 --> 00:18:19.680
pays all the other bills, and that way bitcoin can
344
00:18:19.680 --> 00:18:20.599
do what bitcoin does.
345
00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:22.680
And I think these other dats are going to need
346
00:18:22.680 --> 00:18:25.319
that as well. So I hope.
347
00:18:25.599 --> 00:18:30.359
That that bitmine acquires other eth dats, and I hope
348
00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:33.440
that there's other consolidation across other assets as well.
349
00:18:34.279 --> 00:18:35.799
So do you think he will?
350
00:18:35.880 --> 00:18:38.319
I mean, based on what you're seeing in the market
351
00:18:38.359 --> 00:18:40.839
right now, do you think that's a possibility that could happen?
352
00:18:41.920 --> 00:18:43.880
I do? I mean not that I have, I mean
353
00:18:43.920 --> 00:18:47.240
I have no information you know what whatsoever?
354
00:18:47.640 --> 00:18:52.279
Other yes, speculation, wouldn't it sound like a good business.
355
00:18:53.039 --> 00:18:54.799
Yeah, Okay, it's a smart move.
356
00:18:54.839 --> 00:18:56.799
It's smart move for him, and it's good for the industry.
357
00:18:57.240 --> 00:19:00.119
Yeah, it's especially good for some of these dats that are,
358
00:19:00.160 --> 00:19:04.160
you know, failing. Yeah, but I think that consolidation will
359
00:19:04.160 --> 00:19:06.799
really help also the price of ethereum, the price of
360
00:19:06.839 --> 00:19:10.160
other assets. You know, right now, there's too many dats,
361
00:19:10.640 --> 00:19:14.200
and it's they look like closed in funds, right, you know,
362
00:19:14.319 --> 00:19:17.920
old closed in funds. When there's less demand than they
363
00:19:17.960 --> 00:19:20.559
traded a discount. When there's more demand, they traded a premium.
364
00:19:20.640 --> 00:19:22.400
And the fact that most of these dats are trading
365
00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:25.720
at fifty percent discounts shows that there's a very little
366
00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:28.279
demand for them. And if there is some consolidation and
367
00:19:28.319 --> 00:19:31.000
some understanding of okay, this is the ethereum dat, this
368
00:19:31.079 --> 00:19:35.359
is the bitcoin data, then I do believe that the
369
00:19:35.400 --> 00:19:37.839
world will be a better place and crypto prices will
370
00:19:37.839 --> 00:19:38.799
be a little bit more stable.
371
00:19:39.960 --> 00:19:44.039
Let's talk about the new FED chair likelihood to occur.
372
00:19:44.680 --> 00:19:47.240
It's going to be the most consequential events of twenty
373
00:19:47.319 --> 00:19:50.799
twenty six. I still agree with that to a certain extent. However,
374
00:19:51.759 --> 00:19:54.599
the question is do you think Hassett is going to
375
00:19:54.599 --> 00:19:56.440
He's in the lead right now? Do you think he
376
00:19:56.519 --> 00:20:02.160
will continue to hold that position as possibly an assignment
377
00:20:02.200 --> 00:20:05.319
could be announced any time now by the administration.
378
00:20:05.480 --> 00:20:07.720
What's your position, Yeah.
379
00:20:07.519 --> 00:20:10.680
He's probably my personal leading candidate of who I think
380
00:20:10.720 --> 00:20:13.839
is going to get appointed. You know, who knows what
381
00:20:13.920 --> 00:20:17.559
will happen. You know, I'm not behind the scenes there,
382
00:20:17.599 --> 00:20:20.480
so I don't know, but Hassett is. You know, if
383
00:20:20.480 --> 00:20:21.720
I were to bet on it, that's who I would
384
00:20:21.720 --> 00:20:25.279
bet on. And then the appointment of a new FED
385
00:20:25.400 --> 00:20:29.000
chair is also extremely important for crypto prices too, So
386
00:20:29.759 --> 00:20:31.799
a lot of people believe that crypto prices will just
387
00:20:31.920 --> 00:20:34.559
instantly start ripping and hit all new time highs when
388
00:20:34.720 --> 00:20:37.319
when he's appointed or when he's named. I believe it's
389
00:20:37.319 --> 00:20:39.839
going to take some time because right now, if you
390
00:20:39.920 --> 00:20:42.839
look at rates across the board and you look at
391
00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:46.680
the shape of the curve, the curve is flat, but
392
00:20:47.039 --> 00:20:51.000
short term rates are still higher than you know, you know,
393
00:20:51.160 --> 00:20:54.279
six month, one year, two year, even five year. So
394
00:20:54.920 --> 00:20:58.160
the FED is probably behind at least one twenty five
395
00:20:58.200 --> 00:21:02.119
basis point cut to create a at least a normalized
396
00:21:02.160 --> 00:21:05.720
market where we don't have kind of inversion, and that
397
00:21:05.799 --> 00:21:09.759
needs to happen and then beyond that, it's going to
398
00:21:09.839 --> 00:21:12.920
take some time for the FED to both cut rates well,
399
00:21:12.960 --> 00:21:17.200
first of all, for him to be nominated and then confirmed,
400
00:21:17.720 --> 00:21:20.039
and then for the Fed to actually start cutting rates
401
00:21:20.079 --> 00:21:23.119
and for that to take effect into him to global
402
00:21:23.119 --> 00:21:26.079
monetary supply in order to cause prices to go up.
403
00:21:26.519 --> 00:21:29.960
So my estimate of when the next trough is is
404
00:21:30.000 --> 00:21:32.640
going to probably be this summer into the summer, and
405
00:21:32.680 --> 00:21:37.160
then U the bear market begins again, likely in the fall,
406
00:21:37.319 --> 00:21:38.599
sometime in Q three Q four.
407
00:21:39.160 --> 00:21:42.039
What do you make of these, uh, you know, these
408
00:21:42.079 --> 00:21:44.960
capital injections into the balance sheet right now that have
409
00:21:45.039 --> 00:21:47.119
been slowly coming in from the Fed.
410
00:21:47.039 --> 00:21:49.319
Over the last two weeks. Do you do you see
411
00:21:49.319 --> 00:21:50.759
that as any indicator on Q.
412
00:21:52.240 --> 00:21:54.559
Yeah, I mean really really, what that is right now
413
00:21:54.640 --> 00:21:57.000
is helping the banks for the most part and helping
414
00:21:57.720 --> 00:22:01.000
helping treasuries. You know, all they're doing is keeping the
415
00:22:01.000 --> 00:22:05.079
ballot sheet stable, so as credits rolling off, they're just
416
00:22:05.119 --> 00:22:07.960
buying it back and buying it in the areas that
417
00:22:08.000 --> 00:22:10.640
they believe need the most help, which right now is
418
00:22:10.799 --> 00:22:13.440
the short end of the curve. We're really you know,
419
00:22:13.519 --> 00:22:15.640
a twenty five basis point could have helped as well,
420
00:22:16.079 --> 00:22:19.319
but buying assets on the short end is actually helping,
421
00:22:20.319 --> 00:22:23.519
you know, with banks with their their repo demand right
422
00:22:23.559 --> 00:22:25.440
now and their repeat demand is extremely high.
423
00:22:26.000 --> 00:22:30.400
Yeah, all right, So you're saying slow potential on cuts
424
00:22:30.480 --> 00:22:33.319
for the spring. Do you think we will get a
425
00:22:33.440 --> 00:22:36.400
cut before May?
426
00:22:36.559 --> 00:22:36.920
I do.
427
00:22:37.079 --> 00:22:40.359
I do believe the next FED meeting will produce one
428
00:22:40.440 --> 00:22:43.400
more twenty five basis point cut. And again it's just
429
00:22:43.519 --> 00:22:47.359
to save the banks, you know. I think if there's
430
00:22:47.400 --> 00:22:49.319
not a twenty five basis point cut, and if they
431
00:22:49.400 --> 00:22:53.319
had not stopped, you know, bleeding off the ballot sheet,
432
00:22:53.359 --> 00:22:54.640
then we probably would have seen a.
433
00:22:54.640 --> 00:22:56.920
Bank failure at the end of the year or even
434
00:22:57.559 --> 00:22:58.160
coming soon.
435
00:22:58.920 --> 00:23:01.119
But again, I want to point out that a lot
436
00:23:01.119 --> 00:23:05.000
of people think that, well, look, this is all easing
437
00:23:05.200 --> 00:23:07.480
and it's going to cause asset prices to rise.
438
00:23:08.319 --> 00:23:10.599
This isn't enough to cause asset prices to rise.
439
00:23:10.880 --> 00:23:13.839
This is a band aid to basically stop some bleeding
440
00:23:13.839 --> 00:23:17.000
at the banks. It's not enough to really do any
441
00:23:17.079 --> 00:23:18.799
more positive damage than that.
442
00:23:19.799 --> 00:23:22.720
Okay, well, listen, you got some good news here that
443
00:23:22.799 --> 00:23:26.160
I have to talk about, and that is suis is
444
00:23:26.160 --> 00:23:26.839
that what we're calling it?
445
00:23:26.920 --> 00:23:27.640
Or is it sweets?
446
00:23:28.720 --> 00:23:33.559
Well, technically it's sweet. Is how you say it. But yes,
447
00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:34.400
that is, that is.
448
00:23:34.359 --> 00:23:36.359
The yes is coming soon.
449
00:23:36.599 --> 00:23:39.480
You know, we've had Sweet team on before and we've
450
00:23:39.559 --> 00:23:42.079
kind of gone back and forth with Evan and Adanie
451
00:23:42.200 --> 00:23:45.279
on the pronunciation of it. But the good thing Well,
452
00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:47.240
I mean, you could have selected a lot of different
453
00:23:47.279 --> 00:23:48.119
assets here.
454
00:23:48.680 --> 00:23:50.960
Why go the Sweet route?
455
00:23:51.759 --> 00:23:53.920
Well, first of all, we're a really big fan of
456
00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:57.279
the Mist and Labs team. A lot of them came
457
00:23:57.319 --> 00:24:01.599
from Facebook. They had worked on if you remember old Facebook, Yeah,
458
00:24:01.799 --> 00:24:07.680
Libra tokenization project at stable cooint and I just you know,
459
00:24:07.839 --> 00:24:10.519
they're they're a very high caliber team. It is a
460
00:24:10.559 --> 00:24:13.039
top twenty token So those are some of the things
461
00:24:13.039 --> 00:24:15.200
that we were looking at when we were selecting our
462
00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:19.240
products suite. But I do believe that, given given their
463
00:24:19.279 --> 00:24:21.400
experience and given what they're what they have done, and
464
00:24:21.400 --> 00:24:23.400
what they are doing right now, that they're going to
465
00:24:23.480 --> 00:24:25.319
be one of the leaders in tokenization.
466
00:24:25.559 --> 00:24:27.880
So we're you.
467
00:24:27.799 --> 00:24:30.839
Know, betting really big on what Misston Laps is doing
468
00:24:30.839 --> 00:24:31.519
and what they're doing.
469
00:24:32.880 --> 00:24:34.880
Well, listen, guys, we are going to be watching the
470
00:24:34.920 --> 00:24:37.240
markets very closely, so Steve and I'm going to get
471
00:24:37.279 --> 00:24:40.039
you back on as we start to tread through this
472
00:24:40.160 --> 00:24:43.279
current pump that the markets are in right now and
473
00:24:43.440 --> 00:24:44.160
see if you.
474
00:24:44.200 --> 00:24:45.279
Are right or wrong.
475
00:24:45.559 --> 00:24:48.200
A check back, probably in the first quarter, would be due.
476
00:24:48.279 --> 00:24:50.359
I think with you, so we'll definitely get you back.
477
00:24:50.759 --> 00:24:53.799
Thanks for coming in today. I appreciate it absolutely. Thanks
478
00:24:53.799 --> 00:25:02.799
for having me, Paul. If you like this video, like
479
00:25:02.839 --> 00:25:06.039
and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also join
480
00:25:06.119 --> 00:25:08.920
our free private member group the links in the description
