SHARP NFL Week 5 Bets: Bears-Packers, Niners-Seahawks and more

00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymarket and we are a part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:25
Speaker 2: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:26
Speaker 1: Brother, you're on the road. You made a big road trip with your dad. Uh, you're coming to us from a remote location. I like when you get out of the house during the season.
00:00:36
Speaker 3: I don't, I'm a creature of habit, but, uh, we know we need to switch it up anyway. We need some wind. So yeah, on the road, seeing my cousin play some soccer.
00:00:45
Speaker 2: Uh, he's a senior.
00:00:46
Speaker 3: So normally I would not be doing anything during the season, but I have two major family events.
00:00:51
Speaker 2: You have a wedding and I had this.
00:00:53
Speaker 3: So yeah, headed down North Carolina, watching some high school soccer and, uh, see my man get, you know, I think he's like their MVP, so he's getting some award.
00:01:01
Speaker 2: Really proud of him.
00:01:03
Speaker 3: I was trying to find ways to talk my way out of it, Chad, but it's like, man, I got to go down. You got to spend time with the family.
00:01:09
Speaker 1: You just do it. In the end, you're never going to regret it. You're going to be glad you made the effort. You're going to have the memory. It's going to be awesome. You know what else is going to be awesome? This is our NFL Week 5 Thursday show. You and I, we're going to talk about some sharp calls and brass balls. our underdog and favorite round robins, your biggest bets, our sharp versus square, our discord grouper of the week. We're going to narrow down to our final five official picks of the free $ 25, 000 NFL pick'em contest, which is still available for signup, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. Top 10 finishers get paid $ 10, 000 first place, Simon. All right. Every week, we discuss our picks on Tuesday. By Thursday, you've gotten an earful from your professional betting colleagues, what they hate, what they don't, what they like that I said, which is always making me happy. It's time for Sharp Calls.
00:02:20
Speaker 2: Who's there?
00:02:20
Speaker 1: I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody say it.
00:02:26
Speaker 2: Baby, what you doing? Yeah, crazy week with the line movement, Chad.
00:02:33
Speaker 3: A lot of guys taking positions and moving pretty big numbers. Let's start with the games we loved that the numbers have moved. Texans, they were six and a half. We talked about it on Tuesday. Just so much money. So many guys I've talked to have just had the same view I have. It's like, yes, this Texas team isn't what we thought they were, but I knew this was going to be the Mika Rines, all-in, burn the ships type of game. And you saw, even this week, he said, I'm taking over the play calling. So my view is exactly what it was going to be, was this is a D'Amico, this team loves him type of game. So tons of calls on that one where all the guys agree. Even at seven, minus seven and a half, the guys are like, I'd still play it. They had the same view of me. If the Texans are a good team, they should win 20 to 10, 30 to 10. They should blow out this Tennessee team. So that was a big one of conversation. It's a Miami game, a game I feel like, We were in on it. We know we're supposed to take it. It was 7.5. It was 7. Now it's 6.5. I still know professional groups taking a position on it. If you want to wait now, you maybe can get back to 7, but that was definitely a big discussion this week. Other games we talked about that the line has really moved heavily. Atlanta, I mean, talked about it at plus 3.5. Talked about it at plus 2.5. Talked about it when they were minus 2.5 favorites. Now they're up to minus three and a half. So it's just one of those where I was banging it. Guys were hitting it really hard. Like I know some groups have taken really large positions on it and it's all a hedge against Lamar. If Lamar plays, you can buy your position. That's the whole point and review of it. And if he does play with an ankle injury, you're getting great value. So that's another line that just, you get these rare opportunities and you see the spot where it's like, okay, this is a guy where are they going to force them back? If he has an ankle injury, Lamar Jackson and, We'll find out today, right after our show, we should know if he's going to practice or not. If he doesn't practice today, highly unlikely Lamar plays in that game. So another game, if you want to take a position on minus three and a half, I don't hate it. It's just we're trying to give you out the best number here. And that's what every pro that I talked to was like, yeah, I'm right there with you guys. I'm betting that number right now. So that's when I really jumped out. Games we might be wrong on Packers getting a lot of love from the from the pros and the Packers. I think I'm dug in, Chad. I think I'm dug in on these Bears, man. So that's been a fun conversation this week. Just a lot of pros on the Packers side. A lot of pros on Tampa tonight, which I know we'll talk about. I'm still dug in on Dallas. That's another really fun back and forth. I get what they're betting. I get it.
00:05:10
Speaker 2: That's a huge number and a bad defense.
00:05:13
Speaker 3: But that's been really interesting to me, just the pros who are taking their stand on it. It's really about backing the trends. There's just a lot of trends that favor back and tip here, this big number on Thursday night and another game where I, you know, might be missing something here. And the, the pros on their side, 49ers, the pros just love the 49ers. They're all talking about it.
00:05:34
Speaker 1: Wow.
00:05:35
Speaker 3: Still pretty dug in on, uh, the Seattle side. So that's just one where they just believe the 49ers just still underrated the betting public and the Seahawks are still a little overrated from last year. So that's, that's been a really fun discussion. I know again, we're going to talk more about, so, uh, yeah, as far as it goes for sharp goals, those are really been the hot topics.
00:05:54
Speaker 2: Those couple of games.
00:05:54
Speaker 1: All right. Well, let's talk about that Thursday night game. Just briefly Tampa Bay at Dallas, the line started at nine and a half moved down to seven and a half. It's back up to eight and a half. I know that the sharp money moved it all the way down and probably the public is coming in and pushing it back up as we get closer to game time because of all the enthusiasm for what the Cowboys have done offensively and just looking at what the Bucks have, their own four, they got a backup quarterback. Historically, this is when you smash Tampa Bay. I totally get your position completely. I am desperately trying to keep myself from just betting Tampa Bay. I have not played the game yet because I've been caught betwixt and between, between all the news, all the information that's coming in at me right now.
00:06:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, I totally get why the pros are taking Bucs high.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: Bucs underlying numbers aren't, they're not that bad of a team. Their defense is really good. It is and it isn't, right?
00:07:04
Speaker 3: They've had interesting matchups to start the year, but you're right. They're not as, once again, they're not as bad as we all overall perceive. And like the trends I was talking about, you know, primetime dogs of seven plus points facing the team that's coming off, putting over 30 points. There's 17 and five in this spot. Like there's a ton of trends that really favor the bucks. We look at a bunch of different spots and angles for this one. And that's another reason the pros are playing. And we talked Cowboys defense. Who are they to be favored by over a touchdown against anyone? This is just a very bad defense.
00:07:38
Speaker 2: All those reasons. I know it's terrifying.
00:07:41
Speaker 3: I just think it's a short week with an undrafted rookie quarterback and, he used so much of his luck up in that Green Bay game. Like if you really watch that game, he's just not, he's not a starter. This kid needs three years of coaching. Like he's just an incredible athlete. So that's another reason the pros are like, hey, this could be an undervalued guy who uses his legs and could easily run away from this Cowboys defense. We've seen struggle against mobile quarterbacks. So it's another game where I really was going to take a position on the Cowboys. And now I'm just, you know, Maybe I'll take Dak first half instead, go the coward way out. It's minus five and a half and take positions like that. But just because there's so much professional money on the Bucs, it's.
00:08:24
Speaker 2: Like, you know, I'm a little weary of it, right? It feels like I know I'm supposed to bet the Cowboys here.
00:08:26
Speaker 3: This is the exact spot the Cowboys beat a team by 20, 30 points. But just these trends and, you know, the guys I respect, the fact they're on the Bucs, I'll steer my money to other games than betting this big number on this Cowboys team.
00:08:39
Speaker 1: Will we be steering our money to the Philadelphia Eagles this Visited, or not visiting, but playing the Jacksonville Jaguars in London on Sunday. Wild 48 hours for the Eagles. Lane Johnson retires. Cam Juergens gets traded. Saquon doesn't practice on Wednesday. Devontae Smith doesn't practice on Wednesday. Many other starters did not practice on Wednesday. Zach Bond limited in practice coming back from the concussion. The line... The look ahead line, so let's say, you know, preseason line, Eagles minus two and a half. It is now Eagles plus seven and a half, a 10 point swing, all the money, all the tickets on the Jags. Wild, wild turn of events. The Jerkins trade almost feels like Howie is packing it in. What are you hearing as an Eagles fan, as a Philly resident? What are you feeling right now?
00:09:46
Speaker 2: Chad, you're better than that. Do you think the Eagles are packing it in after week four, buddy?
00:09:50
Speaker 1: I don't think the Eagles are packing it in. When I see that being the conversation, I'm like, it doesn't make sense to me. They're going to get healthier. They have too much talent. Otherwise, it's not like this defense is going to work. to crater, but it does feel like people are losing their shit in Philly about what's happening with his offensive line, which has been the reason why the Eagles have been so good for so long. Yeah.
00:10:15
Speaker 2: It just feels like a misunderstanding.
00:10:16
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm, I, I, to me, if you can get a second round pick for Cam Juergens, you take that any day of the week. Like I saw some stats, there hasn't been an interior offensive lineman traded for a pick above a third round pick since 2011.
00:10:29
Speaker 2: So it's very rare. It is random.
00:10:32
Speaker 3: I get why people were just, were shocked. I was honestly shocked. I can't believe someone would pay a second round pick for Cam Juergens.
00:10:39
Speaker 2: But.
00:10:39
Speaker 1: And he's making a lot of money too. I know the Eagles have to figure out some cap stuff.
00:10:43
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:10:44
Speaker 1: Yeah.
00:10:44
Speaker 2: Yeah. But.
00:10:47
Speaker 3: To me for the Ravens, it makes sense. They're down three centers at this point, right? They lost Linderbaum and then the two guys they had to replace them both got hurt. Cam could step in and be a good asset for them. And I think how he looks at our backups and just, he's just like, why not? Like I just, it can't be worse than what we've been putting out there. Like this, if you watch tape and you follow these grading services and they give out grades every week on these offensive linemen, Cam's been horrible. So it's just painful as an Eagles fan because it's, Coming into the year, the strength of this team was the line. Lane is still playing at a very high level, and that's a whole other bag to get into of Lane retiring. I didn't really want to say too much about it because I don't know if he really retired. I don't know if this is just he needs to get away from it, clear his head, and he'll see maybe in five, six weeks, maybe he'll want to come back, or this could be really it. He's got a lot going on in his personal life, Lane. It's an interesting time for sure for for being an Eagles fan, Chad. And my viewpoint was you just blindly bet the Jags as favorites, especially in England. You've now hit a point where the value has totally shifted to the Eagles.
00:11:56
Speaker 2: Seven and a half.
00:11:58
Speaker 3: I know the books are begging you and you can be like me. You can be a sucker and take that and probably wake up and you're already down 30, nothing like this Eagles team could roll over and die, but they still have a really good defense. You know, their offense, I know they've been absolutely horrible and they're down. Like you said, there's down four offensive linemen. They're number one running back, number one tight end, number one receiver. And you've got people in the media saying Jalen Hurts.
00:12:23
Speaker 1: And number two running back, by the way.
00:12:25
Speaker 3: Yeah, number two running back. And like Jalen Hurts, yeah, can he work a miracle and win this game? That would be incredible. But I would say go to any quarterback on any team and take away all those assets. They're probably not beating a Jags team that we view now as what, a top five, top six team in the NFL right now. So it's just a really horrible spot. So Taking the number, I'll be happily surprised if they actually win this game outright, but we've just seen the Jags.
00:12:50
Speaker 2: They own England. They're just great there, and favorites are a great covering there.
00:12:54
Speaker 3: Another game I'm happy we can avoid for our contest because it's so tempting to put this one in, but I know better, and I'll just wait and see for the Seagulls team.
00:13:02
Speaker 1: Minnesota at New Orleans. This one was Simon Says. New Orleans is down to 1.5. It started at 2.5. It was at 2 on Tuesday when we made it Simon Says. Basically, this is a sharp move. Like the majority of the tickets are on the Vikings, a little bit more than 50% of the money on the Vikings, but definitely it's sharp money that is moving this number in the direction of the Saints. Has anything changed in your opinion on this game?
00:13:37
Speaker 3: No, like, like that's why I want to get two and a half though, because I want to get every number I can just because we've seen these glaring weaknesses on the Saints team.
00:13:45
Speaker 2: And I feel like if the pros keep betting it, it could have flipped.
00:13:48
Speaker 3: And that's why it's like, all right, get the, get the two and a half now, because I knew the pros would come in on it. Cause it's such a, I wouldn't call it a lazy spot, but it really is where it's, we all know the Vikings are overrated right now, right? They're not one of the, they're not the chiefs.
00:14:02
Speaker 2: We're also four and up. They're just, they're not comparable.
00:14:05
Speaker 3: We could see the chiefs continue to success the rest of the season, Minnesota, the public, I think still is unsure about them as well. Cause Kyler, he hasn't been laying the word on either since he started, he's been playing. So, That's really what this position is about. I still don't think Kyle is comfortable yet. And as great as the Vikings defense has been, we have seen in the past, they are susceptible to being passed on. Like as you know, we've seen before, like they, they blitz heavy. If a quarterback can read the blitz and know where his number, his go route is, or his hot rate, his hot read is he can tear up the Vikings defense. And that's the way blind Flores does it. He's like, okay, beat me for a touchdown or I'm sacking you. And now you're in third and 20. Like he's just, he knows the risk he's taking because the defense doesn't have a bunch of studs. It's a bunch of just guys. And that's, what's been so oppressive. I mean, you look at their defense, I think they're rated number one. And then they're so far above EPA per play. They're like a full point above Seattle. Who's the number two defense. It's just Minnesota's defense has been so insane. You expect to come back down to earth at some point. So, Saints team coming off a really bad, embarrassing loss.
00:15:12
Speaker 2: Public eye.
00:15:13
Speaker 3: We just knew we were going to get a free point or two here. I still think you're still getting it. Like the Saints being a pick them in this feels more right. So you're still getting a point and a half of value. If you want to take the Saints, but that's why I gave it out on a Tuesday. It's like grab it two and a half. Now it's a key number. It could still get back there. I still think the public comes Sunday. We'll back this Vikings team and we might get back to it, but no, I'm not slamming the table now to make people take it a plus one, plus.
00:15:38
Speaker 2: One and a half.
00:15:39
Speaker 1: I think you and I both still believe a little bit in Tyler Schuch and the magic he can concoct at the end of games when he's just slinging it and they're moving down the field and he has no fear. It tends to work to our advantage when we're betting on the Saints. Obviously, last week for fans, it didn't. And we were happy to be on the Falcons. But as you said, he's going to get blitzed. if he can get the ball off, if he can get that millisecond of protection, he is going to find opportunities to hit guys downfield that play to the Saints' advantage in a game like this. All right. It is time for our Brass Balls Trade of the Week, presented by Polymarket. And that is going to be, get ready for it, because there was a big debate, big debate. The Washington... commanders trading at three and a half on Polymarket at 52%. You know what it takes?
00:16:48
Speaker 2: It takes brass balls.
00:16:51
Speaker 1: All right. Washington commanders trading at three and a half, 52% on Polymarket. That is our brass balls trade of the week. Look, I think... this is largely about Jaden Daniels being expected to play. He was a full participant in practice this week. Jameis is feeling himself coming off of a big, big upset win at home. It's interesting to me, 80% of the tickets are on the, more than 80% of the tickets are on the Giants right now. So I like going with the commanders here. It's weird to have a brass balls be a more than a field goal favorite, but there's so much public sentiment for the Giants here. That's why I feel like it qualifies for us.
00:17:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's also how rare is a three-in-one team is a three-and-a-half-point dog to a one-in-three team. Normally, me, Chad, would be all over the Giants, right? Divisional dog, getting the hook. But I feel like you need to talk about Jameis, right? You got Jameis feeling himself after a big win. This is the exact game Jameis throws us like four picks. I mean, it's just these are the type of games he just totally lays an egg. And Janie Daniels plays really well in these type of matchups. And we've seen this year this Giants defense. They've also struggled against more wild quarterbacks. And, you know, as much as I like to hate on Dan Quinn, The one thing he does well is he beats the Giants. I think in his career, he's 6-0 straight up and he's 5-1 against the spread since 2015. So he just, he always does well coaching against the Giants in this division, especially. And I get why the public is backing the Giants, right? They have so many questions about this Washington team. I think it's been sneakily underrated how good this Washington team has gotten each week. Like I know last week they lost to the Colts. They were playing really tough until Mary got knocked to that game and they kind of just gave it away in the second half. So, I think the defense has been improving under Quinn. We've seen this offense. When Jaden is in there, they're pretty dang good. So, yeah, it just feels like a nice bounce back shot for this community and a letdown game for this Giants team.
00:19:09
Speaker 1: I agree with you about the defense. Sonny Stiles, as a linebacker, has been incredibly good. I feel like they are improving. What are you seeing when you watch Sonny Stiles? Because that, to me... could be a game-changing pick for them that solidifies what could have been a terrible, terrible defense.
00:19:33
Speaker 3: We said it coming out about Sonny, though. He had no weaknesses. That was his whole– everyone talking about coming out of Ohio State. This kid is just a guaranteed– you're going to draft him. He'll be a linebacker for you for the next 10 to 15 years. Just an absolute stud. He's been above what they said. He is great at rushing the quarterbacks. He's great in coverage. He's great at reading the quarterback's eyes. He's great at against the run. He just does it all. And I mean, he talked about it last week. He didn't play well enough. He got, he got bullied around. And I, that's another reason I like him to bounce back. It's that coach team is a well-oiled machine when they're running with Jonathan Taylor. It's not the same with the Giants. It just simply is not. So, yeah, like I said, I was a game I was hoping was going to drop. But we've seen obviously professional money has held this the commander's number up. So let's take it as is. If it got back, if it got the three, that'd be great. But I just don't see Polymarket dropping a blow three and a half. It's just it's just so much respect the money right now back in this commander's team.
00:20:27
Speaker 1: All right. Well, speaking of Polymarket, I do need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all. And Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature called Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. It's what picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Simon, we brought it up in the Sharp calls. Cincinnati is visiting Miami today. The number has moved from touchdown from seven down to six and a half. It is all wise guy of money. We talked about it on Tuesday. Miami had to be the side that you played. We knew it was going to be a sharp play on Miami. Seven is such a key number in these games. It's just so important. It's why we're waffling on and we'll get to Houston and but why we're waffling on Houston at seven and a half. And it's also why I think we're waffling on Miami at six and a half.
00:22:09
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a little bit, it's, we know we're supposed to do it.
00:22:12
Speaker 3: It's just like last week we missed Miami cause they moved off a 10 and a half. We should have played it cause it was 10 and a half. But yeah, I, I, I get why the pros are betting. We said it's such, it's too big of a number once again for the dolphins and it's why you keep playing them. And it's going to be like this every week for us. but at this, this one is really telling because now they're just, they're letting the public bet. The Bengals is just straight up winning teasers. Now, now you're just, you're down to six point teasers. You're down to half. You're just, all you need is the Bengals to win by a point and you win that bet. Same exact movement last week with the bills. So it's always telling when the books do this, they try to make these little trap lines and teasers as well. This one jumps out now where it's like, I wanted to play Bengals in my, you know, my survivor pool. Now it's a little worrisome where it's like, I can't believe that the books have moved this number. Now it could be a head fake and they could just be trying to get people following professional money and betting the dolphins and then not betting the bangles and all that. And that's, that is part of what the books do here. Um, but that's really telling the books would move and take a position on this number. Not even Saturday, they're doing this Wednesday and now they've done it. They've held it Thursday morning here.
00:23:24
Speaker 2: So yeah. Yeah.
00:23:26
Speaker 3: We know what we're supposed to do here, Chad. No matter what, you're supposed to bet this Dolphins team. You're supposed to ride with the books because it's a long-term spot, long-term winner if you back the books here. So pretty, pretty scary. I don't know what I'm going to do survivor anymore. I might still take my note. I shouldn't in every contest. Maybe I'll just do half now on the Bengals because I don't know what I'm going to use them again. But I can't believe the books think this is one of the games the Dolphins are going to win.
00:23:52
Speaker 2: I know they're going to win one.
00:23:53
Speaker 3: Or maybe two games this year. It's just the way the league is. I think their win total still is two and a half. Their updated win total, the Dolphins, but I just, I could not believe this line movement. Cause like you said, it's all the money, all the bets, it's all bangles. So it's really, really respectively. Like I, I said, I bet the Dolphins not for it to move like someone to move this number. It's a really respected group taking a large position on this Dolphins side. So yeah, interesting number to keep track of this week. If it's, you know, like I'm saying to people, you could grab it now just in case more professional when it comes in and drives us down to five and a half. It just, That's a real possibility now, but we're all hoping it gets back to seven.
00:24:29
Speaker 2: Seven and a half.
00:24:31
Speaker 1: The survivor thing is so tough and we'll get to it because a couple of the more obvious teams, the Bengals and Texans, huge road favorites. And that is a recipe for survivor bloodbath, but there are not a lot of really obvious options. We'll get to that. A lot of people coming around to the idea and, You've specifically said this, but we've talked a lot about this with Joe Burrow. It's becoming more and more obvious that the Bengals' failings are on his shoulders. You had a stat the other day about Joe Burrow that we had gotten from our friend and benevolent boss, Colin Cowherd, and his performance late in games. He's not getting it done. And that is what makes me most nervous about betting on the Bengals from a survivor point of view, but also at a relatively big number, is he just continues to not get it done. And these things, the way he performs, the way he holds onto the ball, those are habitual. Those are ingrained. Those aren't things that you all of a sudden change. That's a little bit of hero ball to me, which is also one of the reasons why I think we want to be wary of betting on the Bengals in a spot like this.
00:25:51
Speaker 3: Yeah, and that stat had Bengals fans in their feelings. They were really upset about that one.
00:25:56
Speaker 2: I had a bunch of people upset. I probably should address.
00:25:59
Speaker 3: The Tuesday thing. I have people so upset, Chad. I don't know why I glazed over it. I probably should start the show with it. My whole point, I wasn't saying I'm better than people. My whole point is I'm not here to sell you anything. I would do this for free was my whole point. I love Chad. I love doing the show with Chad. Love the fans of the show. Even fans who hate me and talk shit to me in public. it's always with laughs. Like it's never that serious. It's not that deep.
00:26:21
Speaker 2: Like people throw these hissy fits online in public. It's never that deep. We can have a laugh. It's, it's all for fun. But the bigger point is we want to win bad.
00:26:30
Speaker 3: On this show. I hope people understand. We don't take this show lightly. We know how many people listen and we care deeply about this show. Back to Joe Burrow. I wasn't trying to take shots at him. It was just a coward stat he gave out that I found really interesting. I think Chad found it interesting as well. It's like, If a guy's 1-34 in games when there's eight minutes left and he's either tied or losing in the game and he doesn't come back, yes, it's a stupid stat, but it's just interesting. It's like, okay, Joe in these games, we've had back-to-back weeks where he's kind of blown it. That was the whole point. And Joe's future, I feel like I already see it playing out. Joe leaves the Bengals in two years, goes to Denver with Sean Payton and wins the Super Bowl.
00:27:07
Speaker 2: Something horrible like that.
00:27:08
Speaker 3: I just feel so bad for these Bengals fans where it felt like they had a guy And now he's missed the playoffs three years in a row. And you could say, well, it's not his fault. And no one is blaming him totally. It is a team game. But here we are through four weeks, and this team could be 4-0.
00:27:21
Speaker 2: They're 2-2.
00:27:22
Speaker 3: And now the line's moving against them in Miami. If they lose this game against Miami, now they're 2-3, panic is going to be at the highest level ever in Joe Burrow's career. Like, this is– I mean, it's hell in Philadelphia right now. It's going to be no different than Cincinnati. Like, the sky will be falling. So, yeah, I just– That was my whole point about that Joe Burrows. I didn't know Bengals fans were going to get so upset about it. It's just a stat. We're not picking sides. We're not saying this or that. We're just simply giving out a stat.
00:27:53
Speaker 1: Listen, you know how I feel about comments. Comments are content. Feedback is a gift. Everybody, just keep them coming. The next game we've got to talk about. The Cleveland Browns visiting the New York Jets. The game's been waffling. One and a half, two and a half, two, one and a half. You can kind of get it at one and a half and two in a lot of places right now. I can see I'm looking at the odd screen right now. Very interesting game. Potentially really bad weather in New York on Sunday. I want to be on the Jets here. I think you would like to also, but the weather is scaring us because we saw how badly Geno played and whether earlier this season against the Packers. And we know Brees Hall isn't going to be playing. The Browns are such a public dog right now. Them and the Giants are massive, massive public dogs on the road right now. Here's a great quote. This is from one of our comments, by the way. Comments are content from a YouTube viewer. As a Jets fan, I can tell you for sure There are never any Jets spots ever. Is this a Jets spot, Simon?
00:29:21
Speaker 3: It was until Mother Nature might be stepping in and ruining all of our amazing plans for this one. Because we just, we knew the Browns were going to be a huge public dog, right? We saw it Sunday night. As soon as you saw this line open, it's like, oh, why are the Browns not favorites here? Like they played better this year. They have aesthetic rest. And we've seen the stats here teams off extended rest have been really good especially against the spread this season so um very very fishy line that immediately we were like okay we'll probably be on the jets here and then you see it 90 of the bets 90 of the money are on the browns and you're like oh my god is it really is it really that easy because sometimes it really is where it's like You don't even think. You just back the Jets, and it's another long-term winner.
00:30:02
Speaker 2: So that's what we meant. It's a Jets spot.
00:30:04
Speaker 3: I get what that Jets fan is saying.
00:30:07
Speaker 2: It's been rough since Sanchez, man. I hear you guys. But if we get worried that it's not.
00:30:13
Speaker 3: Supposed to rain during this game, we got Geno in a nice 65-degree fall day, Chad.
00:30:19
Speaker 2: This is the spot we back him.
00:30:20
Speaker 3: This is the exact spot this Jets team rolls this Browns team where the hype is peaked. But this is also really exciting if you're a Browns fan because the Browns go in and win this type of trap game. you're a playoff team. Like that's what, these are the type of games that they set up the rest of your season. And they had people like me adjust our models to it. Cause it's like, okay, this is, this team is for real. Cause right now there are seven seed missed playoffs type of field, the Browns. Like it's, can they backdoor their way into it?
00:30:46
Speaker 2: Sure.
00:30:47
Speaker 3: But they win this type of game. I'm telling you, it sets up for your whole season. Cause it's, you're, you're breaking the pattern. Like these are really, really hard games to win unless you're a really legit team. So, So that was our whole point about the Jets. It's just we saw this number Sunday. The public is going to walk right into it, bet a bad number, bet the Browns, and get the Jets, you know, Jets win by three, whatever it's going to be. It's just this is what the sportsbooks do. So that's just why we either avoid it or take the Jets. That's our play for this one.
00:31:17
Speaker 1: Look, despite all the attention and the public backing for the Browns on the road, the number has moved. Yeah. That is an indicator that there is someone who isn't just the public that is interested in the Browns. So that's a little bit also, I think, of our hesitation. Let me rephrase. Either the books are getting so much activity from just the public that they were forced to do it, or somebody of knowledge came in and moved it in the Browns' direction. But at some point, it just becomes a jet's line. And you got to play the Jets, especially in this kind of situation. So we'll keep an eye on that one. We're going over a lot of games today because I don't feel like we, there's so much movement and so much changing opinion. Indy at Pittsburgh, you lean pit on Tuesday, sharp money coming in on the Steelers for sure. The line is still at two and a half. It looks like it's headed to three. We didn't spend a ton of time on this, but sometimes we don't do that. And we sort of lose track of games that might be obvious and, Pittsburgh may end up being an obvious submission for us. A good number, home team, offense improving. I went back and researched. You're right. The Colts have some real serious injury issues, especially in the receiver spot. Has anything changed? Has this moved into a more dominant, most bet position for you?
00:32:43
Speaker 3: No, but it feels like it's no different than Houston last week where– I just want to get the best number because I could see what happened with Houston last week happened with the same thing with Steelers this week, where this goes to three or three and a half.
00:32:54
Speaker 2: So that's really what it's all about.
00:32:56
Speaker 3: It's just really about playing the number and the value here, where if it's three and a half and you want to play the Colts, I got no issue with that. Like the Steelers, they're not three and a half points better than the Colts, but I think they are three points and two and a half points better. Like, I think this is the exact, the exact type of game with Steelers win by a field goal. They're just, Overall, it's a better position, and the Steelers' biggest weakness, which the Colts could use to their advantage, is running the ball with Taylor. That is something they struggle with, but we've seen this. The Steelers' defense, some weeks when they bring it, man, they're just so dominant. They have so much talent. The only time we've really seen them struggle, I guess you could say they just struggle against Deshaun Watts and the Browns. The Browns put up a ton of points, but Even that Joe Burrow game, they just– they never died, right? They stayed after and they got that sack at the end of it, the strip sack at the ball. So, yeah, it's another tricky line here where I just– I'm more comfortable betting the Steelers, but it's all about the numbers. So, yeah, Sunday morning chat, if we come in and it's two and a half and we still– I'm still betting to it. You feel better about it. I got no issue putting the Steelers in, especially at this number.
00:34:04
Speaker 1: Las Vegas at New England. New England is a three and a half point favorite right now. If you had told me before the season began that we go into week five and the momentum machine is for a Las Vegas team coming off a loss against the Chiefs instead of a New England team that came off a win on the road at Buffalo, I would have told you you're cray-cray. But that's how cray-cray the NFL is right now. The Raiders are a... along with the Jets and along with the Giants and along with the Browns, these three teams, massive, massive public dogs. What are we talking about here? The Raiders, the Browns, the Giants, these are the massive public dogs on the road against the Patriots? This is insane to me. And I know we wanted to lean Raiders the other day, But the fact they're getting so much public backing, to me, makes me feel like the secret might be out and we've got to be on the Patriots here.
00:35:14
Speaker 3: It could be, but it is book to book, shop to shop right now with this line. I know plenty of shops that are getting tons of Patriots money because they did just have such.
00:35:23
Speaker 2: A huge win, right? They did just beat Buffalo. People are back on. They're back to believing.
00:35:28
Speaker 3: Of all the games you talked about, though, this is the only one that still feels like it's a mispriced round. I do have questions about the Browns. I have questions about the Giants. I feel like I know exactly who the Raiders are. And to me, this is another game where it feels like this lands on three. Like, yeah, could the Patriots blow them out and roll them? The Raiders finally play a terrible game and Kirk Cousins goes back to being a pumpkin. All those things are on the table. I just feel like they're so well coached. They have so much talent. I mean, they could have stole that game easily against the Chiefs. They easily could have won the game without that fumble. And what's this number then?
00:36:02
Speaker 2: Is this.
00:36:03
Speaker 3: two and a half or is it still this number right now which would be a glaring like you're saying a glaring trap we got to just walk away for this one but i'm still a believer i still think the books are still too low on this raiders team and we've seen that every week so far this season it's not like they're just been covering by half a point i mean last week they covered by a point and a half so um maybe maybe we're walking right into it but it's another game where i haven't moved off i've took a position on the raiders I still think it's a good number. And I just still think it's about all the injuries to the Patriots. Like, yes, they got away with one last week, but we talked, but you could go back and watch that. Drake may just was out of body experience. Third and 10 back foot throw 20 yards downfield.
00:36:42
Speaker 2: The guy, it was just out of this world.
00:36:44
Speaker 3: And when they needed to touch on the red zone, third and 10 corner of the end zone.
00:36:47
Speaker 2: Perfect throw.
00:36:48
Speaker 3: Like it, that really was all about Drake. So could we get, could Drake have found it? Could he found his groove and we get burned again here?
00:36:55
Speaker 2: Of course.
00:36:56
Speaker 3: But I just, I can't get over this number, man. It's just three and a half. This Raiders team, I think, is just still underrated by the shop. So they got me. They're sucking me in with this number, Chad. I'm not going to lie to you. It's just, if this was three, maybe two and a half, I could have talked my way out of this one. But with the hook, I just think this Raiders team is too good to be still getting that type of number.
00:37:15
Speaker 1: I don't think it's moving. Like, it's all juiced to stay exactly where it is. It's one of the few lines this week.
00:37:20
Speaker 2: Some books have touched four. Like, that's what you're saying.
00:37:22
Speaker 3: Like, there are really smart pro money on this Patriots team, so. That's just another game why we're hesitant on this one. So I'm interested in what we do Sunday morning because I'm just so tempted right now with this Raiders team.
00:37:32
Speaker 1: Listen, we got to talk about the Bears and the Packers because Chicago is visiting Green Bay. The line has come down ever so slightly. I can't remember if it touched three, but certainly for most of the week it was two and a half. It's down to one and a half, which feels more appropriate to me. I think there was so much enthusiasm for the Bears. and so much anti-Packer sentiment coming out of last week that the line got a little bit inflated. The bookmakers set it a little bit higher because the perception of the Bears is so good. And there's all this talk about Ben Johnson as coach of the year, and they held the ball for 42 minutes. But we're still talking about a second string quarterback going on the road into Green Bay in a huge rivalry game. still with a very good quarterback in Jordan Love. And while the Bears defense, according to metrics, has actually been playing really, really well, I think they're benefiting from a Jets team that couldn't score, a Vikings team in really, really bad weather. There is some flukiness, there's some noise in sort of the stats that are helping their defense look as good as it does right now. But Bears at minus one and a half all of a sudden, I need to take my sentiment out of it because that's starting to look like a Ben Johnson line to me.
00:39:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's fair to say they've played one real offense this season in Chicago, and that was the Panthers. I don't think Green Bay is a real offense. I don't know how it benefits them. We know the Bears' defense isn't good, and they're going to live and die off turnovers. It's been working this year. They're getting their turnovers. They're winning all these games they should win. This line just stinks, Chad. When it was three.
00:39:30
Speaker 2: you were right. It's like, okay, now I can be talking to Green Bay. But you're right.
00:39:35
Speaker 3: At one and a half, who is betting Green Bay? So the books, people, they're taking a very large financial stand on this Packers team. And We've seen it. Football is just wonky. They play this game nine out of 10 times. I think the Bears just absolutely steamrolled. The books are truly saying this is one of the 10 and they are taking a very large position.
00:39:57
Speaker 2: I talked to five bookmakers.
00:40:02
Speaker 3: None of them are below 70% of the money or bets on the Bears.
00:40:08
Speaker 2: All five books are above 70% money and bets and those bets do win.
00:40:13
Speaker 3: I mean, LA Rams, every shop, same, all these same shops, LA Rams, 80% of the bets on the money last week.
00:40:19
Speaker 2: And it all came through. Now we all agree.
00:40:21
Speaker 3: That was one of the luckiest backdoor insane covers ever. And the Eagles had to go make history and go over 12 on third down. No model can account for that. So the books stay their course. It's like, okay, that wasn't a bad read by us. It just, that's football. That's sports. Stupid luck is going to happen. You're going to need stupid luck once again, for this Bears team. That's what they're saying here. So, I love this movement because now if I if I'm on the Bears, I'm just going to take the minus nine and a half.
00:40:47
Speaker 2: I'll take the adjusted line because that's what it's going to be.
00:40:49
Speaker 3: Bears either are going to blow this team out, this Packers team, or the Packers are going to somehow win this game very close. That's really what the books are telling you here with this line, in my opinion. So I'm shocked by this movement. I just I keep thinking I'm I'm too too low on this Green Bay team. And that might be true. Because, like, the books are telling me right now, they're like, this Packers team is not as bad as you and I perceive them.
00:41:16
Speaker 2: Like, I can't even remember last week watching them against the Bucs.
00:41:19
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't get what they're backing. Like, Van Ness has looked great on the Green Bay front line. And, yeah, they have good safeties, but their corners are terrible. Their linebackers aren't consistent. They just don't– I don't get where they're looking defensively.
00:41:31
Speaker 2: And we've talked.
00:41:31
Speaker 3: Their offensive line is in total shambles. As bad as the Bears team is, they have an okay front. Like, they can get after the passer. The QB, I should say. So, yeah, it's just a game where I was very confident. I was happy to take a position on the Bears. Now I've got to be smarter. I've got to either just avoid it, take an adjusted line, or suck it up and just take the Packers.
00:41:53
Speaker 2: But I really don't want to. I just do not see it with this Packers team.
00:41:57
Speaker 1: Look, they've also lost Edrin Cooper, their linebacker, right, for the season. You mentioned the offensive line. They're basically rotating guys in off the street. They cannot find guys to fill that. offensive line it's tricky man it's the like they are trying to.
00:42:15
Speaker 2: Scare us off they're trying to scare us off i think i.
00:42:17
Speaker 1: Think they are i don't get it i don't get it either.
00:42:20
Speaker 3: Feels like we're saying though if they kept us at three people they would have got they would still would have got a ton of money on the bears like the fact that they moved it here they're they're literally they want more bears money that's what's so terrifying that's what doesn't make sense so We've just been in this. We've both done this for so long. Like, yeah, you can get away with this. People, public do win. But this is a long-term loser. If you're betting the Bears team, this is a long-term loser, technically.
00:42:47
Speaker 1: San Francisco at Seattle. Seattle is now up to three. This was Chad's choice at two and a half. Solid three across the board. We both liked it on Sunday night. We're getting a little feedback from our friends, the professionals, in sharp calls saying they really like San Francisco. I really like San Francisco, too. I actually don't think Seattle is overvalued off of the Super Bowl win. I think if anything, Seattle was one of the least talked about defending Super Bowl champions because everybody was talking about the Rams. People were talking about Patrick Mahomes coming back. There was not a lot of talk about Seattle, but I think they've been so good and dominant on defense. That's why I'm doing it. We see Mike Evans with a broken rib. We see Kyle Juszczyk not going to be playing. And I just believe he's so important to a lot of the game planning in that offense. It's why they continue to keep the guy around. And this defensive line is really struggling. So even if you're going against an offense in Sam Darnold that continues to be inconsistent and they're trying to get Joe Mixon off the street and can't even get him to join the roster because he's not passing a physical or not physically able, like, That, to me, it's really about what this defense is going to do at home coming off of a game in which they gave up a lot of cheap plays and let the Chargers sneak back in. They were very undisciplined. This feels like too much belief in Kyle Shanahan magic and not enough belief in the spot for the Seahawks in their defense.
00:44:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a little of that.
00:44:25
Speaker 3: The argument I got a lot from the guys was just the fact that, like Paulie Marker, you can get Niners three and a half right now.
00:44:31
Speaker 1: That's part of it.
00:44:33
Speaker 2: That is obviously part of it. The big one will just be through four weeks, who has played better and more consistent? The Niners. Who has been up and down, a little shaky to start the year? It's fair.
00:44:45
Speaker 3: It's the Seahawks, right? I mean, that Mariota game is going to jump out to a lot of people. You didn't see their defense get up to those type of big passing plays. Now, you talk all the time. These backup quarterbacks that come in, they can all have that one fluky game. These– These are some of the best athletes, right, playing football at the highest level. These guys, for one game, your body's fully healthy. Yeah, you can have an incredible one game. But like you said, the Chargers also, you know, it's horrible. You look at the underlying numbers. Chargers are totally lost.
00:45:13
Speaker 2: Horrible.
00:45:14
Speaker 3: They were able to put up 23 points. Now, like Chad said, that's a ton of junk time. A lot of Seattle let those guys back in. They were up so big, you know, they let that team back door. So I think we're both the same where it's like we still believe in Seattle at home when it was two and a half. That was just a great number of great values. So I hope it goes back down. Like I said, there is professional money on the 49ers. They're just a lot of models have them graded as just as a three point dog here. So people are just going to take that half point of value. They're going to take that three and a half, especially if Polly Mark has given it to you. So another line that's going to be fun to follow this week. We'll see pros come back and bet it down. We can get it to an after a contest. That's a real conversation. Like we're getting a great team at home under a field goal in a divisional game. where, you know, our only hesitation, I don't know about you, but my only real hesitation right now with Seattle is Sam Darnold.
00:46:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, totally.
00:46:06
Speaker 3: He just does not look comfortable. He's played three games this year, right? And I know he got knocked out that first game. Can't take anything away from it. These two weeks, he's trying to play him back self into rhythm and shape and like that, okay. But we need to see it at some point. And that's what's so unnerving here. We just have not seen it where it just feels like JSN just keeps bailing him out. which that's a great way to live. He's like the best receiver in football. You can get away with that. But it's just a little nerve-wracking when this matchup he's playing against right now viewed as a league MVP in Brock Purdy. So, yeah, we could have easily made those hard brass balls back because it does take a little balls here back in the Seattle team. It doesn't necessarily feel like it, but if you're betting them at three or three and a half, I think that's the ballsier side where it just feels like it's the easier side right now to take the 49ers at plus three.
00:46:54
Speaker 1: And a half. Well, listen, it was Chad's choice of two and a half. If you think it's ballsy to take it at three, wait until you hear about the Discord Grouper of the Week, because I think you're going to enjoy that one, Simon. Detroit and Arizona. Arizona, it's ticked up since we talked about it. It was at four and a half. It was at six on Sunday. And we kind of leaned Arizona in the moment. But as we went through the week, and you talked about this on Tuesday, you started to feel better and better about Detroit. I think the wise guy money as much as anything, it's why this number has moved up from four and a half to five and a half Detroit becoming bigger and bigger favorites on the road.
00:47:37
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:47:37
Speaker 3: Like we talked about that with Arizona, they're just a bad team, right? We, we, we drank a little too much of the Kool-Aid because of what they did in week one against the chargers. And we've come around to the fact that chargers are just a bad team. Like it's just, they're not, they're not a good team. They're not well coached right now. And Arizona is, Yeah, are they better than what we thought they were coming into the year? Yeah, people had them the same record as Miami. They're clearly better than Miami. But Detroit, we've just seen the history. Like, they lose bad. They get embarrassed. They always bounce back. I mean, that could be a Campbell thing. And, you know, the Ben Johnson stuff, you've seen it pop up now. They're just– the imagination is just not there, right? Offensively, it just isn't, right? It is a different team. But they still have a top– two top one running back. They still have Jared Goff. When he has time and protection in the pocket, he's great. And they don't have a type of defense that should give him fits here. So this is another bet where you're just playing the number. Like you're under six right now. I think that's a great value on the Lions. Your true risk would be the backdoor. That's what the Cardinals are going to live and die with this season, the backdoor. So it's no different here if you back the Lions when they played the Jets or the Jets had opportunities that could have backdoored them.
00:48:49
Speaker 2: They didn't.
00:48:50
Speaker 3: You got the win and the cover. So it feels the same here. It's like Is it one of my biggest bets this week? No, but it really is just betting the number. It's under six. I think it's good value on the Lions team. That is still much better than this Cardinals team.
00:49:01
Speaker 2: So I'll live and die with it. I could get burned by the back.
00:49:03
Speaker 3: Door, but this just feels like another coin flip game where the better value on that coin flip right now is on the Lions.
00:49:09
Speaker 1: So the last game I want to talk about before we get into the biggest bets and sharp versus square and all this kind of stuff. Buffalo visiting the Rams. Rams? are now on Monday night football. Rams are now three point favorites. This was at two and a half earlier in the week. It's hard to not want to bet on Josh Allen as an underdog. coming off a game in which they really should have dominated and still not loving what we're seeing from Matthew Stafford and the Eagles. They had a not-so-great second half against the Broncos, a really good defense. They had a terrible 56 minutes against the Eagles and squeaked one out. They go back home. Pukunuku is back. They're on a fast surface. The Bills' defense is struggling. But do we really want to go against Josh Allen again as a three-point underdog?
00:50:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy.
00:50:23
Speaker 3: Just the fact that I know of some really smart pros who are taking a large position on the Rams.
00:50:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, so do I. I've seen it. I think that's why the numbers moved as much as anything else.
00:50:33
Speaker 2: Yeah. And again, I don't get it, though, because....
00:50:37
Speaker 3: This just does, is there really value on the Rams here? I must be missing something. Like maybe I am overrating Josh Allen and maybe we are overrating the Spills team and they're, they're not on the same levels as Rams team because the Rams, I still think they're a team that they're, they're missing such key guys. They have so many injuries. They're not what they're going to be, especially in November. Like this just, this feels like they're a team that's still missing a ton of pieces and they've got, if I mean, yeah, they, they beat the giants, but like Chad said, those other three games, they haven't, they have not looked like a dominant great Rams team in any sense of the imagine. So should we just be patient? I mean, probably markets give me three and a half on the bills. I guess I'm a sucker. I guess I'll have to take it. But I am like you, I am shocked by the movement of this one. It's just another game where I'm, I'm clearly missing something here. And cause it's really smart money driving this Rams number up. And it's been interesting just talking to people where even probably even the public is a little weary of backing the bills, which I am shocked by, which like, I just saw the public will blindly bet Josh Allen at plus three plus three and a half. So yeah, another game where we'll definitely talk about it Sunday. Like I just really haven't taken a position. Don't know much to say about it where it just, I know the pros, the smart people are on the Rams. I'm just missing something here where it just, it doesn't feel like it's that easy of a bet. There's much to me, there's much easier bets to put my money into this week and invest in. And I'd be okay losing it where if I, if I bet the Rams here and, josh on has the ball at the end of the game he drives the field kicks a field goal or scores a touchdown to win the game it's going to be like oh well because he didn't do that last week we held that against him and we tried to go against him now we look like idiots it's just it's it is tough to get a read on this one i won't i won't lie to you.
00:52:19
Speaker 1: Um all right so we got a lot of games we're going to have to review on sunday i don't think we're finding a ton of consensus yet i think we're we're still sort of feeling our way a little bit simon It's time for the Discord Grouper of the Week.
00:52:38
Speaker 2: Buy my book!
00:52:39
Speaker 1: Buy my book!
00:52:41
Speaker 2: Buy my book!
00:52:45
Speaker 1: We've been talking a lot about listeners and viewers and commenters. I will say, we've got an incredibly classy, thoughtful, giving group of longtime listeners Listeners, I had said on previous shows, for anyone who buys 10 books, I will either, if possible, come visit for a mini book club or at least do a Zoom video conference with the group that bought the 10 books. Email sharporsquareatthevolume.com if you do with your proof of purchase. Getting a... A lot of momentum for a Southeast. We've got buyers in Charlotte, Atlanta. And then Chris Haynes, a buyer in Northern Florida, emailed and said, I want to buy the 10 books, but I want to donate five books to someone who might not be able to otherwise buy the book. I thought this was so classy. I told Chris, keep the 10 books. At the end of the season, when the book comes out, I'm going to donate the five books. We'll do an email campaign. And by the way, I will donate another book for anyone else who is buying 10 books in addition to me trying to get to you or do a Zoom. I will just keep adding books to the pile that we will give away at the end of the year. So thank you, Chris Haynes, for the inspiration to get more people reading. In the Discord, meanwhile, which you can join, go to readthenumber.com, get the invite, help us raise money for St. Jude's. This is just a giving campaign. The winner this week, Simon, Seattle, minus three. I was stunned by the voting. This was a runaway winner. There were a couple of teasers in there. I think New Orleans was in there too. Seattle was originally minus two and a half. I went and asked people to revote. Minus three was still the winner. So we got a pretty ballsy group in the discord going with Seattle. It's exciting.
00:54:57
Speaker 2: Totally off topic. Sean Payton. It just got breaking news.
00:55:00
Speaker 3: We'll be heavily involved from now on the offense, which I don't know if that's him taking back it, but I guess they're still letting web where the, where the headset on the sideline, but it feels like Sean Payton, that is Sean Payton taking over the play calling.
00:55:14
Speaker 1: Yeah. Sean heavily involved basically means 90% of the time. He's like overruling or just saying, just do this.
00:55:22
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:55:23
Speaker 1: And let's move on. That's called parenting. That's I say to my kids all the time. That's great. It's been a fun debate. Just do what I said because I know what I'm doing. You let him go for a little while. You let him go for a little while. Well, good. I'm glad I haven't heavily invested in the Chargers because the Chargers are probably the right side, but I have no faith with them having all the offensive line injuries. And now with Sean Payton deciding he's going to get back into the mix. So, Simon, our underdog, round robin, parlay.
00:55:57
Speaker 2: My dog likes your dog. Your dog likes my dog. I say this week we only do three because I don't love that many.
00:56:05
Speaker 3: I like the favorites this week. There's not that many dogs I love. Get the Saints in there, plus 115. Again, there's not a lot of dogs we love.
00:56:13
Speaker 2: Should we get Josh Allen in there?
00:56:15
Speaker 1: I was going to say, I think we have to put Buffalo in.
00:56:17
Speaker 3: And then go back to the ball. I know they burned us last week. Raiders, plus 164. Unless there's another dog that.
00:56:24
Speaker 2: Jumps out to you.
00:56:25
Speaker 1: Well, I was going to say this, uh, the saints.
00:56:27
Speaker 2: We did. I did saints one plus one.
00:56:29
Speaker 1: Oh, that's right. You did. You read the saints plus one 15. Yeah. So saints, uh, bills and then, uh, favorites round Robin.
00:56:40
Speaker 2: Really fun week.
00:56:41
Speaker 3: If you like doing favorites, like if you want to do, you know, tease the Cowboys down to two and a half, throw them in there. You want to, you want the bangles and I can get them down to half a point, put them in there. Um, I mean, you could do the Jaguars. Like it's just another one where this week feels like you're going to go four and one this round, Robin, if you do all these teasers. So Detroit, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, Texans. It's really that simple. Like the public's going to do it. Maybe you go three and two. I just, I have a hard time this week seeing a bunch of upsets. We've had some really good upsets this year. We usually get into a little.
00:57:21
Speaker 2: Bit of pattern here.
00:57:22
Speaker 3: Where the good teams do just win. It's just the way it goes. The bad teams, they're not going to pull up these crazy upsets every week. Out of that list I just gave, Chad, what two teams do you think could pull off the other? Do you think the Eagles could do it? Do you think the Bucs could do it? Do you think Miami's that team? You look at this list and it's like, yeah, we could see it happening, but that just feels like 5-0, 4-1, 3-2 on the teasers if you just tease down all these big favorites.
00:57:47
Speaker 1: I look at this and think, Detroit's defense is so bad. Jacoby Brissett, miracle game. And totally think that the Bengals are just a historically train wreck enough of a franchise that Miami could easily win that game. Those are the two where I'm like, all right, if crazy things are going to happen, which always happens, you don't know, that's part of the fun. Those to me are the two that could totally... Totally screw us. Simon, your biggest bets. Pull up those pants and be a man.
00:58:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I talked about Houston. I was really having them six and a half, seven. We'll see Sunday morning if I'm going to have more seven and a half. But right now, I'm just trying to be patient and hope that professionals or whoever come on the other side of Tennessee get me back under that key number of seven. Saints plus two and a half. Some shots, I think we'll get back to two and a half. I just, I view the public will come in heavy on Minnesota. They just have so many great Underlying numbers on their defense. Saints got embarrassed in a primetime game. It's only going to be professionals taking that side right now on the Saints.
00:58:58
Speaker 2: I'm heavily betting to Atlanta. I talked about that.
00:59:00
Speaker 3: Some books have moved them back down to minus three. I mean, if you want to get enjoyment in the party, I don't hate that number. I just i would be truly shocked if lamar plays and if he does play i just think he's gonna be totally hampered so it just i get it you want to fade atlanta right it's just eventually they're not going to keep putting up 40 points every week why not we've not seen this ravens team be that great defensively so it's also i think another good matchup for them indoors against that team and that defense and Another big bet. And one of me and Chad talked about our big balls, better the week commanders minus three and a half. I've just, I've just been betting it thinking that if it, if, if Daniel's full go and it's all good, I could easily see this bet jump up to four and a half. Like this could keep going up. So that's another one I've taken a larger position on someday in the morning. We'll talk more about it. I just, I could see myself betting more money into this Miami team and to this Raiders team.
00:59:54
Speaker 2: I'm just, I'm just waiting to see what's going to go on with these numbers right now.
00:59:57
Speaker 1: All right. Sharp versus square last week. I had Las Vegas plus four and a half. That was a winner. It says here that you had Cincinnati minus two and a half.
01:00:09
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:00:10
Speaker 1: That one did not win.
01:00:12
Speaker 2: It did not.
01:00:14
Speaker 1: So right now I get to go first. I can't quit this Houston team. It's a bad number, but I, They got to win this. It can't be 0-4. They got to dominate. So I'm going to go with Houston. I guess I'm taking minus seven and a half. I got to take the numbers available.
01:00:40
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:00:42
Speaker 3: All right.
01:00:46
Speaker 2: I'll join you on the chalk. I'll go. Give me Detroit. I'll go Lions.
01:00:54
Speaker 1: Interesting. Interesting. All right. Survivor.
01:00:58
Speaker 2: Look.
01:01:00
Speaker 1: Texans big favorites on the road.
01:01:02
Speaker 2: Yeah.
01:01:02
Speaker 1: Bengals big favorites on the road.
01:01:04
Speaker 3: You got to use one of the two people. That's my view of it. Like it's just, it's hard to know when you're going to use them again. If you're telling me what's the best spot between the two, the safer spot, more confident spot for me.
01:01:14
Speaker 2: I think Chad's on agreeance. It's Houston.
01:01:17
Speaker 1: A hundred percent.
01:01:18
Speaker 3: You just expect a stream roll here where I can see a way of the Bengals blow this and lose this game where could, could Tennessee cover that game?
01:01:26
Speaker 2: Sure.
01:01:26
Speaker 3: But when it, I just, I just cannot see it. That the, D'Amico is going to have those boys running through a wall this week. So, yeah, I'm telling people more than 55% of mine will most likely be on Houston.
01:01:40
Speaker 2: At this point, at one point, it was 100% where it was going to be on the Bengals.
01:01:44
Speaker 3: I've just pulled it back just because of all this professional money coming in on Miami. I'll talk more about it Sunday morning if anything's changed. But as we say right now, 55% of my contests on Houston, 45% are on the Bengals.
01:01:55
Speaker 1: That's our show. We'll be back Sunday morning with our final NFL Week 5 bets. We'll give out our official picks for the free $ 25, 000 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. Sign up now, sharpersquare.thevolume.com. You can join it for free. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like the video, subscribe to the channel, download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods, rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Feedback is a gift. You know we love it because we keep talking about it until Sunday. Love you. Hi, everybody. I'm Bob Costas along with Nick Bonacante.
01:02:37
Speaker 3: And Nick, the assignment for Eagles, bounce back and forget about last week's 20-0 defeat at Los Angeles.
01:02:43
Speaker 2: Anemic Eagle offense last week reveals that he has a leadership ability to turn the Eagles offense around.