DO NOT Draft These Players ⎮ Dynasty Players To AVOID

00:00:02
Speaker 1: Hello everybody.

00:00:02
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined as always my Pat Fitz Morris Scott Bogman. Fits. You are the only healthy one here I as you know from doing a couple of shows with me this week and fighting through a cold and a cough. Bogman is fighting through something where he's a bit under the weather as well. So we are the troopers who are showing up ready in a rock and roll This is easy for you. You're just feeling dandy, aren't you.

00:00:25
Speaker 3: That's right, tip top and just you know.

00:00:28
Speaker 4: I know we're remote, but hopefully you guys won't give me anything while we're sitting here talking.

00:00:33
Speaker 3: No, hopefully you guys feel better. I don't like having sick colleagues.

00:00:37
Speaker 2: We recorded another show earlier today and you mentioned something about maybe flying out with some chicken noodle soup.

00:00:42
Speaker 1: It's not here yet, so I'm wondering what's going on.

00:00:46
Speaker 3: That Fits, Yeah, no kidding.

00:00:48
Speaker 4: Our Our daughter is actually the one who has made some really good homemade chicken soup, So off to get her to go out or maybe.

00:00:58
Speaker 3: Get a vat sent.

00:01:00
Speaker 1: I'll be sending my address to so Yeah.

00:01:03
Speaker 2: Perfect all right, we'll jump into this show here so the sick guys can can go rest after this. We're talking some do not draft these players. We are past the kind of rookie We're not past rookie draft season. There are still rookie drafts going on, but we're past that kind of like big swell of it right after the NFL Draft, So we're now into trading season. We're into startup dynasty season. So consider these kind of both do not draft these guys in your startups, but also maybe you can think of it as a maybe don't go out and sell the farm for these guys and you try and buy high on them, or however you want to interpret it, but we're calling it, or do not draft players. We've got fifteen of them for you here on today's show. Just a quick note for everybody. All of our early twenty twenty four consensus rankings and tiers can be found at fantasypros dot com slash rankings. From there, you can also navigate to our staff dynasty rankings on the site as well. We're gonna go through a position by position. There's gonna be different number of players per position, and it's fifteen total. Like I said, we're gonna start with a couple of quarterbacks here, fits will start with you, who are you not drafting in Dynasty?

00:02:06
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert?

00:02:07
Speaker 4: And I know that will probably aggravate some people because Justin Herbert seems to be some sort of sacred cow in the Dynasty community. But he's averaged under eighteen Fantasy points per game the last two years, putting him outside the top ten in the points per game category each of those years. Now he's going to play in what's sure to be a run heavy offense with Jim Harbaugh calling the shots and Greg Roman calling the plays. And even if Lad McConkie turns out to be as good as we're hoping, he's going to be, the Chargers are last year. Also, Justin Herbert doesn't really provide needle moving bonus value as a runner. His single season high in rushing yardage was three hundred and five yards, and his career YPA is seven point one yards per attempt, which is actually lower than Baker Mayfield's career YPA of seven point two yards for attempt. And He's Herbert's actually been under seven point zero each of the last two years. Like I'm not saying Herbert's thanks. He's a good NFL quarterback and you know, super tool Zy in his best years are probably ahead of him. But a lot of people do treat him as a sacred cow, and I just don't know if he deserves it. Like I'd rather have the guy Bogman is about to talk about, and I'd rather have either Caleb Williams or Jaden Daniels in Dynasty than justin Herbert written Anthony Richardson by a mile.

00:03:31
Speaker 2: That's a good tease before we get to the guy that we're going to argue about. When Bogman says, I want to follow up on Herbert, do you think that by virtue of playing in a Greg Roman offense we will see more rushing? I know it hasn't been part of his game in the past. Do you think that he has the It's not gonna be like a Lamar Jackson twenty nineteen season, obviously, but do you think that we might see maybe a couple more rushing touchdowns, maybe a couple extra hundred rushing yards on the season.

00:03:57
Speaker 3: Possible.

00:03:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know how much of that is baked into the Greg Roman offense. Obviously, with Lamar it was, but Lamar might just be a special case because Lamar is probably the best running quarterback.

00:04:07
Speaker 1: Of all time.

00:04:08
Speaker 2: I'm really interested to see because obviously, like Greg Roman, like with Colin Kaepernick and Greg Roman with Lamar Jackson, we haven't unless I'm forgetting somebody, obviously, we haven't really seen Greg Roman with a pure pocket passer on the level of Herbert, So maybe they're like I, I think Herbert can run more than he has, and I think he has in at orgatically that's what he is.

00:04:29
Speaker 4: He's destroyed Wisconsin in the rose Ball with his running, not with this passing, right with his legs.

00:04:35
Speaker 1: So I'm really curious to see that it's it's in there. I'm below e cr as well. I have him at eleven. I think his ECR is nine, so I'm a little bit below, but I have him in that same tier with those other guys. And I wouldn't say Richardson by a mile, but I do have have Herbert in that tier, so so Fitz I.

00:04:52
Speaker 2: I actually swung a trade in our Dynasty League with the work guys that we've talked about a lot, and I'm not going to bring this up for every player, but with Herbert specifically. I'm I'm curious your opinion on it. I gave away it's a super Flex dynasty, TUA the two oh three this year and Courtland Sutton to get Herbert. Do you think that was an overpay? Because I was really happy with that it was actually offered to me, and I was I was happy to kind of get out of the too of business and to just kind of hitch my wag into somebody with the talent of Herbert and kind of having the idea that Jim Harbaugh is a good enough coach that like, if the best way to win is Herbert's arm, that they will do that. Do you think that was an overpay based on you having him on your do not draft list?

00:05:30
Speaker 4: No, I mean I think it's a fair deal. Like two o three is you're not getting a sure thing at two o three and super Flex and Courtland Sutton, who knows.

00:05:38
Speaker 3: I mean, he's useful.

00:05:39
Speaker 4: Now, but we'll see, Like it's not like he's got a long career runway. Yeah, I mean I think that's a reasonable deal. We'll see what too. I don't know what to make a toa either. I mean, like he was terrific early last season and then just faded badly down the.

00:05:53
Speaker 2: Stretch to like, honestly, if we were ranking the list of players that are most different dificult for me to rank in Dynasty, Tua might be at the very top. I really struggle with what to do with him.

00:06:06
Speaker 4: There was a stretch I think it went into, like I know, it's the first ten weeks of this season where he averaged over twenty Fantasy points a game, and then down the stretch it was like thirteen point nine points per game. I mean, it was just like shutting off the switch. And here's the thing, Like the Miami defense is going to be terrible this year. Well I don't know about terrible, but like they lost a lot of wayworfenders, so yeah, they're gonna be in a lot of shootout scripts potentially.

00:06:32
Speaker 2: Well it's you know, it's on the one hand, it's like he takes one wrong hit and his career might be over. They also haven't backed him up with the contract yet. But on the other hand, like there was a point in October last year where I was thinking about trying to sell him, and I was like, I feel like I need multiple firsts for Tua because he's a twenty five year old who's leading the position of scoring right now.

00:06:52
Speaker 1: Like, it's very difficult for me just giving.

00:06:53
Speaker 2: The factors in both directions, He's not actually the player that we're talking about. So that's a bit of a detour there. Let's get to the big fun argument that Fits alluded to with they pick that Bogman is making here.

00:07:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, mine is Jordan Love, and it's less about the player here. And I know Fits just blink because he couldn't believe I said that. But there are good quarterbacks. We just had four brand new quarterbacks inserted in that are gonna be starters by the end of the year. I would rather have three of those guys than Jordan Love. And Jordan Love had a great season first year as a starter. But the Packers went back. They got Josh Shacups, they added Marshaun Lloyd. They already play with one of the slowest attempts per game, you know, they run a real slow paced offense. And I think he was so good in the pocket, and they don't have a good backup quarterback. I think this rushing upside for him is gonna come off a little more every single year. He doesn't have a contract extension, yet I expect him to get that or I expect them the franchise and however it works, they're going to figure it out with Jordan Love. So I'm not so worried about him moving. I am worried about repeatability because we've seen it for only one year and the other pieces of this offense were amazing. Can they repeat as well? And then you have the new run game coming in. So it's not so much about Jordan Love, It's just that there are other good quarterbacks. I still like the three guys, the three rookies, I said Caleb Daniels McCarthy. I probably take Drake May over him. Kyler Murray is not that much older than him, I think eight months something like that. I think I'd still rather take Kyler with his rushing upside, although he's you know, shorter stature, so I understand injury risk. I get it if you don't want to take Kyler. I just think there are so many names. I'm just gonna wait till the last one of the guys that I like falls, and Jordan Love is going way higher than that. I have him at sixteen as ECR is eleven among qbs. I'm not doing it. I'm not investing in a draft for Jordan Love, especially if you going to go that high. If he falls, I'll take him. I do like him, but I think there are too many other good quarterbacks around there to reach for a guy that's only done it for a year.

00:09:09
Speaker 2: So fits, I want to clear the paint and let you kind of go to work here on your guy. But but first I want to kind of pose a question, like I see the case for it wasn't really even one season. It was mostly half a season. The first half of last year, he only had two finishes higher than QB twelve. There's really that second half where he looked like stellar. But he looked stellar like, he looked legitimately really really good. It didn't feel fluky. Maybe the you know, touchdown rate was a little high, but you know, in terms of just how he looked like watching him, it didn't look like he was closing his eyes and getting lucky like. It looked like he was really like making great plays and playing the position at a very high level. I disagree pretty strongly though with Bogman. In those rookies like Caleb Williams, Yes, I would draft Caleb ahead of Jordan Love. He's that special. Personally, I'm a little lower on Daniels than others, just because I'm I'm worried about the late career breakout and May the injury thing. With Daniels, there's no chance I'm considering McCarthy or May ahead of And I like both those guys, particularly May a lot. There's no chance I'm taking them over Love. So having said that fits, I want to hear what you think.

00:10:13
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, that's it, And honestly, I will not be violently offended by Bogman's points, like, and I get a lot of it, Like, I don't know if we should categorize Jordan Love as a running quarterback, Like I think that's sort of the gravy in his game, like a little bit of bonus.

00:10:32
Speaker 1: He had it coming in. I just don't think they need him to do it right.

00:10:35
Speaker 4: Yeah, And they have added, you know, a heavy duty running back in Josh Jacobs. They do play at sort of a slow pace under Matt Lafleur. That's been the way they operate. But man, this guy's got a lot of arm talent. And you know, like I was a Jordan Love skeptic for a long time, you know, when they needed him to make a start in place of Aaron Rodgers when he had COVID a couple of years ago. I mean, he had a terrible game against the Chiefs in Kansas City. So but obviously like the long waiting period, like he was ready last year, Like it took him a while to get settled in, but like he was okay early on and then just took off. And I kind of feel like that's what we're gonna see. And yeah, you don't know if all of the wide receivers and tight ends, like if they can all repeat their success from last year. But Boggs, they've got so much volume around him now. I mean they got five wide receivers. Yeah, Dantavian Wicks like the fourth receiver, really good, two good young tight ends. You know, it was super efficient last year.

00:11:37
Speaker 3: He Love five.

00:11:38
Speaker 1: I love this roster, I really do. And I think I should probably like Jordan Love more. But give me the rushing upside of McCarthy in a heavy passing offense. Give me the rushing upside of Jade Daniels. Give me even the rushing upside of Trevor Lawrence. They haven't let him do it. Yet, but I think they're gonna need to, like just let the dude. He hasn't shown it yet, so you know, if he's going to be the chosen one, like we all thought, let him run. So I just don't think Love has that, So I'm gonna take those other guys ahead of him because of those factors. But Jordan Love is a good quarterback. But we have a lot of good quarterbacks too, so you know, I more take offense that he is going as high as he is. You know, if he's picked eleven, sometimes great, but I think thirteen fourteen somewhere in that neighborhood is probably more likely for me, and I have him lower than that, so I just won't be drafting.

00:12:29
Speaker 2: He's only two years older than Jade Daniels. I mean, he's been around a while, but because he sat so long, but it's only twenty five. He'll turn twenty six during the season, and Jane Daniels is twenty three. He'll turn twenty four during the season, so it's and even now he's older than the other rookies did the example using Daniels. Obviously, Love is like four years older than McCarthy, but you know, it's not like he's some old veteran who only has a couple of years left, like that arm talent is going to play for a while just to quickly kind of you know, take this point home. If you look at the tears we have in our expert consensus rankings in terms of dynasty Tier one Alan Mahomes, Hurts, Tier two Stroud, lamar Borough Richardson. No arguments there in terms of those names. He can couple with the order, but those are the tiers, and then tier three is bigger. It's Caleb, Herbert, Kyler, Love Daniels, Lawrence Prescott. I think you could argue Caleb should be a tier up. I think you maybe one or two those guys could be a tier down. But that feels like the right range for him. I know you mentioned the two rookies that you would you take ahead of him, Bogman, but I think those are the right names for him to be kind of listed amongst right.

00:13:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I yes, and I'm not again, I'm not trying to knock Jordan Love good quarterback right in the pocket. But I think a lot of those other guys have rushing upside that he is just not going to have. And why would they run him. They don't need to run him. Michael Pratt is your backup quarterback right now, or Sean Clifford, so you don't need to be putting him in harm's way at all whatsoever. So I just think they'd take that away from him. By now, most of you have probably heard of Reality Sports Online, the powerful fantasy sports platform where owners get to build and manage their fantasy tea like an NFL general manager. But the question is have you tried it?

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00:14:55
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Zamir White as a guy that I don't really want to draft in a dining right now. And his ECR currently is twenty seven. I have him at thirty seven. Look, Zamir White is fine. He's not impressive. It doesn't have a great elusive rating, doesn't have a great run rating. He did get a heavy volume at the end of the season and put some big games on tape twenty two for one, forty five, twenty for seventy one, twenty five from one to twelve. But the Raiders did add Alexander Madison, who I don't like. They added Dylan Lobby though, that who I do like. So I think Lobby is gonna come in and probably take receiving down duties immediately, So I think that turns Amir more into a two down back. I do think he's gonna get a heavy workload this season, but if it doesn't work out quickly, then the Raiders are going to be looking for a running back next year as well. So I just think the window for Zamir to grab this job and run with it is pretty small. So I think we're drafting him as a running back three. I more want him as an RB four to take a shot, and I do think he's gonna hold some value this year. I just don't know moving forward how much we can trust Samir White. So I like that he's getting a shot, but I think people are taking it a little bit too far. I know our boy Deebro likes him, but he more likes the situation too. He said, look, and I talked to him Ted. We went down a big rabbit hole about it for like twenty minutes, and I said, you know. His final synopsis was, look, I don't really like White, but they are going to feed him. That was his overall thought process I think for this year too, But if he's not impressive, Raiders are just gonna be looking for a running back again next year. So I don't know, the windows pretty short. The opportunities there but I don't know if I'm buying it. Yeah. Fits.

00:16:45
Speaker 2: We taped the show with deebro earlier this morning and we talked about Zimir White and he, uh, you were much lower on White than he was, and that was thinking you know more about Redraft. I assume you feel the same. If you feel that way in Redraft, you probably feel the way in same way in Dinas.

00:17:00
Speaker 3: Right, Bugman said it.

00:17:01
Speaker 4: I mean Zamir White is going to be a two down back, and that archetype in Dynasty is not really what I'm chasing since Dynasty leagues are typically PPR leagues, so you know, the early down grinder is not really the kind of guy I'm pursuing in Dynasty. And Boggs makes the great point like if it doesn't work out with Zamir, this is his golden opportunity. I did like him as a prospect coming out of Georgia, like this dude runs hard, man runs with some violence, and but you know, if it doesn't work out, what a great opportunity to tease next year's rookie running back class, which looks pretty fantastic with Quinn Schawn Judkins and Trayvon Henderson and Donovan Edwards and Rocket Sanders and just Jalen.

00:17:45
Speaker 3: This goes on.

00:17:46
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yes, yeah, it's an exciting class man. So yeah, I mean, like Zamir White does have a golden opportunity here, but yeah, like I don't want to get out over my skis and a startup draft on a two down, early down thumper guy. And that's the kind of archetype I'm gonna talk about with my next player.

00:18:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, who you got?

00:18:10
Speaker 4: It's David Montgomery, the early down, non pass catching grinder. And like Montgomery's his ECR is running back twenty three, and like, I don't find that too offensive. I've got him like running back twenty five. But I'm probably just drafting around him in a startup. Like we know, Jamior Gibbs is gonna have a prominent role in Detroit, and I think it's fair to say that he's more explosive than David Montgomery, a better pass catching back than David Montgomery, and probably more talented than David Montgomery. I don't think anyone's going to dispute that. Also, Detroit ran the third most plays from scrimmage in the NFL last season, and that was a big part of the reason why they were able to have two really useful fantasy running backs last year. What if they don't run as many plays this year? What if circumstances change and look, Montgomery turns twenty seven in less than a month, and we see a lot of running backs start to fade in their late twenty. So this has not really gotten that interested in in startups.

00:19:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, looking at the tiers again, I mean that he's in tier four in the expert consensus rankings. Quickly the names in that tier DeAndre Swift, Javonte Williams, Ormandre Stevenson, Trey Benson, Joe Mixon, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, Alvin Kamara, Najee Harris. Trey Benson is the only one of those names that I'm like interested in, kind of maybe not aggressively approaching, but like a guy who I'm trying to get in startup drafts. The rest are all like if you're in win now mode and you're trying to win year one, it's worth considering. That's typically not my strategy in a startup. I'm just not interested in a lot of those guys in that range. Like, if that's the range you're in in your startup draft, I'm very likely to be looking at wide receiver, tight end, maybe second quarterback if I haven't take one, like I'm not, I'm not really looking at any of those running backs.

00:19:56
Speaker 4: And the thing is where I'm like Derrick Henry we talked about him him on our show earlier today, where I'm not especially interested in readraft. I just think there's some risk with a thirty year old, high mileage running back. But if you are playing to win right away, if you're in win now mode, if you're just going to take those discounts in the startup draft on like older proven veterans like Derrick Henry can land a haymaker for you if it all works out and you get lucky and he, you know, doesn't start to topple over the age cliff. Whereas David Montgomery, what's the upside, Like, you know, maybe he gets a thousand rushing yards again, ten touchdowns, like virtually nothing as a pass catcher, like that would be the optimal scenario for David Montgomery. And I think that's pretty pie in the sky, like maybe a ten percent chance he has that sort of outcome.

00:20:44
Speaker 2: Don't try and butter me up with kind words about Derrick Henry after on the earlier show, you were all like against him.

00:20:51
Speaker 3: Just smirching him.

00:20:52
Speaker 2: I know, yeah, come on, it's the people will see through your tricks here. What do you think about Dave Montgomery Bagwin, Yeah, I.

00:20:59
Speaker 1: Think fits I do have him. I haven't at the bottom of the tier, but I have all those guys that you mentioned ahead of him. I think Montgomery could still put up some big numbers, but there is just no doubt that the Lions are gonna trend more towards Jamir Gibbs because he is a better running back, and that is the thing with running backs. It's like Christian McCaffrey. What is every coach that's ever had Christian McCaffrey told us, we're gonna give him fewer touches. We're not gonna overwhelm him. You can't take a guy that talented off the field. That's the same thing that's gonna happen with Gibbs. Montgomery had a big chunk of his production come from touchdowns last year, so I don't know. I think the usage is gonna go down every year for Montgomery. So he is a bit of a fading star. So I'm only three spots below consensus, but I am below consensus on Montgomery as well.

00:21:47
Speaker 2: Who's your next guy?

00:21:48
Speaker 1: Bugs Kendrey Miller And by the way, cheap plug here, the reason that I have Kendry Miller in this is because Fits and I were answering questions on the Fantasy Pros discord five pm Eastern on Tuesdays. From now on, I'm going to start recording those and putting them up in the feed if I don't screw up the recording like I did on the first one we did, so you know, those are going to go up. And we had a question about Kendry Miller, and the gentleman talking was saying, you know, he kind of had Henry Miller as the next man up for sure behind Alvin Kamara. Then I'm only a couple spots below ECR on Kendray his ECRs thirty nine. I have him at forty four. I probably have him in the same you know range as well as a tier as we do. But my thing with Kendry Miller and pretty much the entirety of the Saints offense that isn't Chris O Lava, is that I think we're getting a new coaching staff next year, right. I think Dennis Allen is out. I think he probably should have been out this year. But Derek Carr is a bit of a mess. Dennis sounds a bit of a mess. They've had cap problems for a while. I think after this season they're going to hit the reset button and whoever comes in. Kendry Miller's not their guy. Maybe Kendry Miller plays well enough, maybe Kamara gets hurt. Kenry Miller showcases right, But again, like I mentioned with Zamir White, it's gonna be a short timeframe to do this, and you have to do it and look impressive behind Alvin Kamara, and if you don't, they paid Jamal Williams a bunch of money, so Jamal Williams is still here to get carries in New Orleans as well. So I do think Henry Miller is the immediate guy behind Kamara. I do think there's a chance he becomes the Saints guy. But with the questions about the offense moving forward and the coaching staff, do they want to bring in their own guy? Do they like Henry Miller? I just don't know where he cements himself. So I'm just a little bit lower on Kendry Miller. Yeah, if it's.

00:23:50
Speaker 2: Obviously not a big impact from Miller in your one, what are your thoughts on maybe taking a flyer on him and startup drafts.

00:23:57
Speaker 4: There's some people in the Dynasty community who really like him, and to me, Kendray Miller is just a complete mystery box. So I kind of agree with Bogman, just like I can't see investing in a guy I'm just not sure, a guy who's a total blank for me, a guy I don't know what to expect from him. Kind of liked him as a prospect, but wasn't over the moon about him, and I don't think we saw enough from him as a rookie to really get any sort of read on him. So I'm just kind of I don't know in a startup draft another guy I'm drafting around.

00:24:32
Speaker 2: Now fits Am I reading this outline right? Are you about to start talking negatively about Derrick Henry again?

00:24:38
Speaker 4: Yes?

00:24:39
Speaker 3: Yes, I know, I know. I put Derrick Henry in my list.

00:24:42
Speaker 4: It's just that I think people are expecting yet more of the same from Derrick Henry. But like he's thirty now and he has led the NFL in rushing attempts and for the last five seasons he is a high mileage guy. He actually turns thirty one right at the end of the twenty twenty four regular season. And like we've seen guys like high volume, heavy duty physical running backs hit the wall much earlier, like Eddie George was, you know, going on and on like a metro longtime.

00:25:18
Speaker 1: All those guys didn't have in common fits. They weren't Derrick Henry.

00:25:23
Speaker 2: I know, I know he's a uniforse, but I said it earlier on the earlier show when we were talking about Redraft that I'm willing to, you know, maybe put more stock into guys who have been outliers.

00:25:33
Speaker 3: Their whole career. Guys are unicorns until they're not.

00:25:36
Speaker 4: That's true, no, Like I mean, Zeke Elliott is, like I think he's twenty eight now and we consider him to be a shell of himself. Like I just worry that, like when it the end comes, it's gonna come quickly, and you are going to have an asset that goes from like you know, I mean, like Henry is a well regarded asset right now, and when he goes, it's like that value is just going to disintegrate, disintegrate, like you'll have nothing on your hands. I just worry that that could come sooner than later at his age.

00:26:11
Speaker 2: Well, to be fair, I want to be clear that I will be probably like above consensus on him in redraft, and I'm very excited for what we'll see this year. That does not apply to Dynasty. I am locked up with you in Dynasty. Like philosophically, am I willing to take a risk on an outlier in a redraft league? Sure? Am I willing to take that risk with a you know, any kind of you know, significant pick in Dynasty? Absolutely not, There's no way. So so I think you made a good point earlier about like, if you are looking for you know, if you decide based on the way the board falls, that you are competing right away you want to win your Dynasty league in year one and can get Henriette a discount. I think that makes sense there. I will not be aggressively targeting him in Dynasty anywhere close to as much as I will be in Redraft. So I there's a very cle and I think that's probably obvious to most people, but it's just worth saying that. To me, there's a very very clear distinction between the two. For a guy like Henry, specifically Bogman, what do you think, Yeah, I think he just becomes conditional.

00:27:08
Speaker 1: You know, the further he gets in his career and he doesn't fall off, the bigger the risk is. You know, he's the yodeler from the Prices right game, Right, Eventually he's gonna keep singing and fall off that cliff. I do agree with fits that is going to happen. Mother Nature's undefeated. It'll happen, right. But what I would do if I'm taking Derek Henry number one, he has to be my two running back, my second running back in a dynasty. And if I do draft him, I'm just making sure I get a youthful. I get a Jonathan Brooks, I get a Trey Benson or something like that to go with him, so that I have a plan for when he eventually does fall off. So I do I still have I have one spot ahead of consensus ECR twenty one. I think right now his is twenty two. But yeah, he just becomes conditional. That's really what it is for me, because go ahead.

00:27:58
Speaker 4: The thing is like he should be one of the most traded guys in dynasty ycause he deserves to be on teams like franchises that are going all in for twenty twenty four, right though, Derrick Henry needs to be on those teams. And if you're not all in for twenty twenty four, if you're rebuilding, retooling, in a productive struggle whatever, I mean, Like, I'd take Dantavian Wicks in a third rounder for Derick Henry if I was that sort of team, Like, he has no business being on your team if you're not in win now mode.

00:28:29
Speaker 2: It's a great point. I tried to trade for I mean our Dynasty League and was rebuffed because the owner is like, well, I'm trying to contend, so I want to hang on to him. But yeah, it's really like pretty binary with him whether you want him or not. By the way it fits. How surprised are you to hear that? I don't understand that Yodeler reference.

00:28:44
Speaker 1: Well, see, I was thinking about that one.

00:28:47
Speaker 4: It's not like the Price is Right has been discontinued like it's been on I mean, maybe it's not the Heyday like it was during the Bob Barker years anymore.

00:28:55
Speaker 3: With what Drew Carrey has been the.

00:28:57
Speaker 2: Well, I'm aware of the price is right as as a franchise, but I couldn't tell you what like the games are.

00:29:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly. You've never faked illness to get out of a day of school before Worm.

00:29:11
Speaker 2: Actually no, my dad's in the feature, so school was like you had to be on your deathbed to knock. Growing up, I've seen it on in like doctor's office, like waiting rooms and stuff. But I I didn't know there was a yodeler. I don't remember that much of it.

00:29:28
Speaker 1: At least now you'll you'll you'll get a video. I'll send it to.

00:29:30
Speaker 3: You one of one of the better games.

00:29:31
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I we don't need to go too far down this road. But I thought that it was just like you guess the prices of stuff. I didn't know there were also games.

00:29:40
Speaker 1: Well you do, but but you have to set what the price is and the yodeler will move to that price, and it's up on a mountain and sometimes if you pick too high, he'll go right over the cliff.

00:29:51
Speaker 4: So yeah, the games are all built around guessing the prices of items.

00:29:55
Speaker 1: There's just different Turtle wax.

00:29:57
Speaker 3: And Riseroni, the San Francisco tree, right.

00:30:00
Speaker 2: My main frame of reference for Price is Right is the arc on How I Met your Mother where Barney thought Bob Barker was his father. So that's about all I got as far as Price is right reference is good. Let's move to the next player, because nobody cares about that conversation. Bagman, Who's who's the next running back? You want to talk?

00:30:20
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Devin Singletary. This isn't that big a surprise a VCRs thirty eight. I haven't at forty six, and I feel like I kind of like Singletary for this year. He's had chances, He's just never really been crazy impressive. He hasn't had a thousand yard rushing season yet. The downgrade from the Texans last year to the Giants this season is enormous. The nice thing about Singletary for this year is he has a chance to earn that role and stick with it because the guy the other guys on this roster, I mean backing him up right now. It's Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy, And I like Tyrone Tracy, but he's kind of a tweener. You're not gonna give him the ball twenty times. So Singletary should get the rock this year, but again, you're behind a bad O line. This team lacks weapons. It's not like it was in Houston last year where CJ. Strouds is throwing it deep down the middle all the time and you have these lanes open for you. So I just think he's going to struggle in New York. I think that he's probably you know, I think what he is right now is what he is. He's an RB four, and I don't have that much more enthusiasm for him outside of this season. I do kind of like him in redraft just because he replaces Parkley. He's gonna have to have a huge workload, but he could easily be replaced next year and no one will bad.

00:31:37
Speaker 2: And I yeah, I think the fact that the opportunity is so clear this season is maybe, you know, bubbing him up in some people's eyes. I am right here with you. If you are in the back half of your twenties and have proven throughout your career that you're just a guy and you're not even on a very good team, like that's just not the archetype of a running back. I'm pursuing heavily in Dynasty. Whether via trade or in a startup draft, Like I'm sure there would be a point where it's like, yeah, like it's reasonable value, But at that point in the draft where he becomes a value personally, I'm just more likely to say, let me just take a lottery ticket on like a high upside receiver that you know has fallen because they haven't done yet. Like, I'm just not gonna take a guy like Singletary when he checks all those boxes and maybe that will you know, could bite me in a startup theoretically if he does have a really good season here and his value rises, and maybe could trade him next off season if you think it's gonna drop again. But he's just not the guy for me.

00:32:30
Speaker 4: I guess I'm just less offended by Devin Singletary CCR than you guys are because I realized, while he is a fragile asset, I don't mind fragile assets as much when you can get them for rummage sale prices. And I think this is a pretty cheap price for Devin Singletary, who has been kind of a consistent overachiever.

00:32:48
Speaker 2: In his career.

00:32:49
Speaker 4: He's not big, he's not athletic, you know, like he's he's kind of outperformed I think what the expectations were for him.

00:32:56
Speaker 3: So I'm not totally uh. I don't know. I'm not going out of my way to avoid him in startups.

00:33:02
Speaker 2: The final running back we'll talk about in our do not draft section is DeAndre Swift, and I'm saying it because you guys both picked him. So, Bob Whan, I let you go first as to why you picked Swift here.

00:33:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, Swift, I just do not believe in and zcr is sixteen. I have him at thirty. They paid him. I just don't understand why he was fifty six in run grade, sixty fifth in elusive rating. He's only scored five touchdowns in each of the last three seasons because he hasn't built the score. Last season, he had fourteen carries inside the five for the Eagles. His previous three years with the Lions, he had nineteen. And I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say, if I can choose between Monster Roshan Johnson and little DeAndre Swift to score me touchdowns on the Bears, I'm going to give it to the Monster. So I think Roshan's going to be the goal line back. I think we're going to be extremely limited in what DeAndre Swift can do in this offense. Now, look, this offense could click immediately and get rolling downhill, and maybe that makes things easy for Swift. He will take advantage if you give him yards. I just don't trust him to create that much. And I see him, you know, kind of in that range of Zamir White. I think he's that type of a back. All those a mirror. They're different styles, but you know they get points because of heavy usage. I just don't think we're getting that from Swift again this year.

00:34:23
Speaker 2: For those watching on YouTube, this is my shocked face that Bogwin prefers at Texas running back to DeAndre Swift fits. Obviously you agree because you you know, also listed the Swift for this segment. So what can you tack onto what Bogman said.

00:34:37
Speaker 4: The Detroit Lions moved on from DeAndre Swift after three years, and in his third year, they cut his workload pretty dramatically. The Philadelphia Eagles moved on from DeAndre Swift after one year. He did it back to back hundred yard rushing games for them in weeks two and three, then didn't have another one off season. Now the Bears have him, but they also have Khalil Herbert and Roshan j So no guarantee that Swift gets like some sort of massive workload this year.

00:35:05
Speaker 3: Yeah.

00:35:05
Speaker 4: Just it's four years in DeAndre Swift's career and no team has been willing to commit to making him a centerpiece of their offense. So RB sixteen seems like a pretty overaggressive VCR.

00:35:18
Speaker 2: For whether you are starting fresh or getting ready for your rookie draft. Dive deep into dynasty prep with our twenty twenty four Dynasty Draftkit at fantasypros dot com slash Dynasty. Get access to our expert rankings, rookie draft advice, mock drafts, and much more. You can also join live expert amas on our discord at fantasypros dot com slash Chat. Dominate your dynasty league with our Dynasty draft kit at fantasypros dot com slash Dynasty. All right, let's go to the wide receivers fits. Who is the first guy that you are not.

00:35:49
Speaker 4: Drafting Jaden Reid just to prove that I'm not a Green Bay homer like, he was a very pleasant surprise as a rookie, and he's a good player. As a Packers fan, I'm very glad he's on the team. Here's the thing, though, Jaden Reid played eighteen games last season if you include the playoffs. He had a snapchare of seventy percent or higher in exactly two of those eighteen games. Like, he is not a full time player. He won't be on the field when the Packers are in two wide receiver sets where it's gonna be some rotation of Christian Watson, Romeo Dubbs and Ontavian Wicks, like Reid will be on the field whenever the Packers got to multi receiver sets three wide, four wide, which will be reasonably often. But the Packers might use eleven personnel more than they did in twenty twenty three this year because Luke Musgrave was hurt for a lot of twenty twenty three.

00:36:45
Speaker 3: Now he's healthy.

00:36:46
Speaker 4: They have two good young tight ends in Musgrave and Tucker Craft. So also, Reid scored ten touchdowns last year on seventy five touches, sixty four catches and eleven carries. That's a touchdown on thirteen point three percent of his touches. Wow, I think we can probably expect some regression in that department, So a thirteen point three percent TD right not likely to be equal to or surpassed in twenty twenty four. I like read ECR Wide Receiver thirty one. That that seems a tad Rich Bogman.

00:37:18
Speaker 2: You're low on Jordan Love. Are you also low on read?

00:37:23
Speaker 1: Barely? I think I have his ECR is thirty one. I think I have him at thirty three, So just a couple spots, But I don't know. There's there's just a big old mess of wide receivers in here that can kind of be interchangeable. So whoever the one whatever, I feel like, whatever reasoning you have to not take a guy, I think is probably fairly valid because there's so many good wide receivers right now, specifically with this class coming in. So yeah, I'm a little low on read. I didn't realize the snapshare was at low. I knew he scored a bunch of touchdowns, but once again, repeatability for this offense, I do question it a little bit.

00:38:03
Speaker 2: BUG mean, I don't think I'm gonna be happy with your first pick here amongst the wide receivers.

00:38:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, look it's it's Zay Flowers and everything I just said about the fact that wide receiver is deep. This is the reasoning that I have for Say Flowers, for me being low on him as ECRs twenty two, I've met thirty two. I just want him as a wide receiver three instead of a wide receiver two. And I feel like he's expensive. Let's not forget Mark Andrews missed seven games last year, right, I think I'd rather have Worthy, Coleman, Lad Brian Thomas all still over Zay Flowers. Although I do feel like I like say Flowers, but I think that with Derrick Henry, with all of this running with Mark Andrews back, I mean, I don't think Rashad Bateman's ever gonna make a step up. But it's either gonna be Rashad Batman makes a step or they draft a wide receiver high next year. It's gonna be one of those two. So I don't know. Off field stuff I don't like either with Zay uh. So there's just like it's death by a thousand cuts here for saying. It's not really one thing that I dislike about his game. He's great with the ball in his hands. They just don't pass the ball a ton and one of their big targets was out for a big chunk of the season. There's a lot of good wide receivers right now, So for me, I just have say a little bit lower my ECR. Not that I wouldn't take him, he would just have to fall. I do like zay It.

00:39:24
Speaker 2: It's not even like a Ravens thing. I just like first round receivers going into their second year when they were good in year one and it wasn't I mean, like, no, he wasn't Pukinnakua in year one. He wasn't Justin Jefferson in year one. But he that's a good year one historically for a rookie receiver going into year two. The fact that they didn't add a receiver this year, like he will be the number one guy in that depth chart for this season obviously, like you reference, Mark Andrews is clearly there so that you know is different than most teams and that the tight end is probably the number one target. But he's gonna be the number two target and the number one receiver in that offense. And he's really talented. I don't think the offseason, like the off the field stuff is going to come into play. From what I can tell, you mean you never know, but looking at the guys, I take your point that I might rather have him as like a high level wide receiver three rather than a low level wide receiver two. But he looked at the guys in consensus. Directly behind him, you know it's Tank Dell coming off an injury, Jordan Addison. I think you make the case there, But he's the number two receiver in that offense. Rashie Rice has his own offield stuff. JSN didn't do much last year worthy a rookie Pickins, you know, inconsistent. We were struggling to rank him on the earlier show today. So like, I think it's a reasonable range for him to be in. I wouldn't the fact you mentioned those rookies, and I am actually torn on some of those guys because I really liked the rookie class and I think like the landing spots were actually pretty reasonable for a lot of them. So I go back and forth on whether or not i'd rather have Zay than let's say, like a late first when it's going to be like a Keon Coleman type pick. I think I think they're pretty close to even. I think i'd Leanzay just given that we've already seen it for a year. But I think it's a reason.

00:40:59
Speaker 1: And that's question. Yeah, I have so Jordan Addison is who I have where I have him at twenty two and in a different tier, But then I have a fifteen man tier of wide receivers because I think all of these guys are very good and have a ton of upside. Sayflowers is in that, but you know, I just think going into if they were all in the same class, I would have put Zay at four behind those guys or five behind those other four wide receivers, then obviously behind Neighbors and Harrison two. So he just would have been a little bit lower. And I take that into context in terms of the teams too. Were these in a better situation, Coleman could be a one, right, Ladd is a little different, but the defense is going to be real bad in LA still, so we could see some late you know, shootouts for the Chargers here too. So all that in context is why I'm a little lower on say but I do still have him in a tier with all those talented guys. Addison's the only one that you mentioned that I have above him, you know, in terms of a tier.

00:42:00
Speaker 2: You have flowers exactly in line with consensus. So wide receiver twenty two are you what do you think about the conversation surrounding the upside of the rookies, uh, in terms of whether or not you'd now that we know their landing spots, in terms that whether or not you'd rather have them over is.

00:42:13
Speaker 4: A he'd definitely be behind the big three, But I think I'd rather have Zay than Worthy right now, like, because they has has given us a year where I think we can feel pretty good about what he did, even if you know, based on like Zay was getting a lot of hype right before the start of the season, if you guys remember, and relative to that level of hype, maybe he was a little disappointing, just like just a smidge off expectations. But then again, worm wasn't there a primetime game late in the season where like Zay had a seventy five yard catch and run touched on wiped out some completely terrible call on a holding that wasn't a hold.

00:42:51
Speaker 2: I forget which game that was. Maybe it was it would have been his first touchdown in Baltimore, and he was I had it all about it.

00:42:57
Speaker 4: Of course, so those numbers have been a little more sexy had it not been for that egregiously bad call.

00:43:04
Speaker 3: But yeah, so I like him. I'm I'm kind of bullish on him.

00:43:08
Speaker 4: I don't think he's ever going to be like a heavy volume, one hundred catch guy, you know. I think he could be the one A or one B like in a good wide receiver corps.

00:43:20
Speaker 2: I wouldn't like put money on him having one hundred catches. I wouldn't rule it out, though, I mean, I do think they want to throw the ball more now that it's a year two of the Todd Mounkin offense. And again they didn't add any receivers that are going to be a threat to him like they extended Rashad Bateman, who has struggled to get on the same page with Lamar in terms of the surpassing and stuff. I mean, he had seventy seven receptions last year. He didn't play Week eighteen, so that was minus a game, and that was as a rookie in the first year of an offense, you know, with lamarsall learning the offense and everything like that. So and also Odell was there, who Lamar liked to throw to. So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw, you know, maybe like eighty five to ninety catches over one thousand yards and like six to seven time at least like and for a guy of his age still coming into his own in the league, like, I'd be pretty interested in somebody like that. Again, I do take the point that if I'm building a team, especially a wide receiver receiver heavy team, if he's my number three, I'm feeling really good about that as opposed to my number two. But I'm still very willing to draft say Flowers and buy the hype on him going into year two. Fits Let's go to your next receiver.

00:44:25
Speaker 4: T Higgins, who has now been in the league for four years, and he's been a very good player, but he has not given us a lights out season's worth of numbers yet, And obviously part of that is that he's been sharing targets with Jamar Chase for three of his four years in Cincinnati. So there's optimism that once T. Higgins gets out of Jamar Chase's shadow, bigger numbers will come. But an ECR of wide receiver twenty one seems to be assuming an optimal landing spot for T. Higgins when he does leave Cincinnati someplace where he will be the undisputed number one wide receiver, some team with a good QB situation.

00:45:03
Speaker 3: What if Higgins winds up on.

00:45:04
Speaker 4: A team that already has at least one prolific wide receiver. What if he goes to a team that doesn't have its quarterback situation completely squared away? And oh, by the way, T Higgins has had like multiple hamstring injuries since entering the NFL, which is slightly worrisome. So quality wide receiver, but it does feel like there's some wish casting going on with his ADP and his ECR.

00:45:28
Speaker 3: So I don't know.

00:45:29
Speaker 4: I just feel like he's going to be a poor value in startup drafts.

00:45:32
Speaker 2: I'm with you on this one, similar to tw for different reasons. But I've traded out of the T Higgins business in a couple of dynasty leagues recently, and I'm kind of happy to do so and let somebody else take on the question marks. The ceiling is very apparent, but I think so is the floor, and I just don't like where you are going to have to draft him. I want more certainty than you're getting with T. Higgins. Bodwin, what do you think about Tea?

00:45:56
Speaker 1: He's still really young and he has four years of experience in the NFL ready, I have him a little bit higher than ECR. I think that if he goes to a different place, he could easily be the number one there, And I've always kind of thought that with t next to Chases. I don't want to think of him as a two. I want to think of him as another number one, and I just I think he has a skill set. The injuries do bother me, the hamstring stuff and those things do bother me. But he's still so young, Like I said, twenty five, he's born in ninety nine, you know, just turn twenty five as well in January. So I think there's still a lot of meat on the bone for Higgins. So I'm pretty high on him.

00:46:33
Speaker 4: What I would challenge you, you guys on though, Like if you could put T Higgins in an optimal landing spot, like right now, where would it be? What would be the comment? Yeah, okay, that's a pretty good one. But I mean it's just like, there aren't many spots where you get the combination of like great quarterback and a place where he would instantly be the wide receiver one Chargers.

00:46:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean there's a couple of spots and it's not guaranteed. So I look, you can squint and see the issues. No problem, because let's say he ends up in New York. What you know now, Malik Neighbors is one? Right? And is it Daniel Jones that quarterback? Is it a rookie that they draft next year? Is a veteran that they bring in? Have they fixed the old line? You know what I mean? So I it's not hard to squint and see the multiple avenues for Higgins. I just really liked the talent.

00:47:25
Speaker 3: You had me with the Bills and Chargers. You lost me with the Giants.

00:47:28
Speaker 4: I was good, well that, but that's what we're making you guys were making you dumb by throwing out okay, I was making.

00:47:35
Speaker 1: Your point, was like, I can see if he goes to the Giants, that's a bad scenario versus the other two that were good, right, So that is my like, it's not tough to squint and see where he goes and he loses value. That is in definitely a possibility as well.

00:47:49
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think you like obviously Buffalo and l A are two really good examples. I think even somewhere like like if he went to Detroit, Yes, they already have a Monas Saint Brown, but there is like an opening for you know, plays to be made in that offense behind him, And if he's like a very clear number two, like I wouldn't really want him, like like I say, like Houston, where they're okay, there's like three mouths to feed. We know it's a good quarterback, but like it starts to get a little more complicated. If he's a very clear top two, which is what he has been in Cincinnati, then still like playable, but I agree to fits his point where you know, we don't know where he's landing, and that's just another question mark with him.

00:48:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think New England, Denver, Carolina quarterbacks, they all have quarterback as She's right, so you know that he could be a number one there, But I think i'd rather have him in Cincinnati behind Chase still with Burrow.

00:48:42
Speaker 2: All right, pawhen who's your next receiver?

00:48:44
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with JSN once again, same exact deal as I had with with Say Flowers. I think I have JSN won two spots below Say Flowers and guess who's in between both of those guys, Jaden Reid, by the way, So look, I know Ryan Grubbs coming in. He's a local product, coming from Washington, where the idea was to get vertical and pass a bunch with those great wide receivers that they had at Washington, right. But McDonald comes over from Baltimore, where they ran the ball, they played good defense, They have Kenneth Walker, they have Zach Charbonay, and you have a question mark in terms of your quarterback. Gino didn't play as well as he did the year before. They went out and got Sam Howe. All the rumors are they really like him, but the dude turns the ball over like nobody's business and he gets sacked. So I just don't know what the quarterback scenario is. Lockett is still on this roster. He still led them in targets last year too. By the way, I know everyone's fading Lockett because he's old, but he is not dead. I think for this year you have kind of a questionable outlook, because I do. I think the bad ocs like Arthur Smith want to build their team around their system. I think the smart ones build the team around the talent, and I think the talent in Seattle is to run the ball a lot. With Walker and Sharboney, I think that's what what they should do, and I think it's what they're going to do under McDonald. So I'm a little lower on JSN than consensus.

00:50:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, jays N's really.

00:50:07
Speaker 1: Tough for me and Fits.

00:50:08
Speaker 2: I want to get your opinion because I like could not have been higher on him as a draft prospect. I was really really excited about JSN given what we had seen from him at Ohio State. You know, I know there was some injury stuff his last season there, but he looked so good the year before his last year that it was really hard for me to look past that. And I feel like it still kind of is hard for me to forget that. But you know, to Bogwin's point, third in the in the pecking order last year and possibly still again this year in an offense that historically is like to run the ball, like I mean with the franchise at least again to his point, we don't know what the new OC, But but where do you come down on JSN?

00:50:47
Speaker 3: Fits?

00:50:47
Speaker 2: Because I really struggle with him, so.

00:50:49
Speaker 4: Do I I'm with you, m I was high on two, and then it was just pretty depressing that. Granted, yes, like DK is an excellent receiver, Tyler Lockett, even though he's getting up there in years, still very high quality receiver, and for JSN to not be able to earn targets at all, and when he did earn targets, they were like average depth of target of like four yards, they were these like manufactured little like let's get this, do the ball in space and see if he can do anything, and he really didn't. So yeah, I don't know what to make of him, still like holding out hope that he could have a breakout. Maybe it's just not every rookie receiver smashes. And it used to be that rookie receivers were considered a bad deal in fantasy football, and then like the paradigm kind of changed and rookie receivers started having really good years. But they're still the ones who don't pop right away and it takes the two or three years. Let's hope JSN is one of those guys.

00:51:48
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think.

00:51:49
Speaker 2: I think if we're sitting here next year and it's a similar year to his rookie season and maybe slightly better, but kind of similar questions, then I will be pretty out. But I think I'm I'm interested in another season fit. Who is your next receiver?

00:52:04
Speaker 4: Brandon Ayuk? And let me preface this by saying that I love Brandon Ayuk. This is going to offend a lot of people. Terrific pass catcher, maximum effort player who blocks like an absolute mad man, but wide receiver twelve for his ECR, Like he's got that really high ECR and ADP everyone wants him in startup drafts and I just don't get it. Like Ayuk has never had a season in which he has averaged more than six point seven targets per game.

00:52:32
Speaker 3: That is not a lot.

00:52:33
Speaker 4: And last year he finished wide receiver fourteen in PPR scoring. And do you realize what it took for Ayuk just to finish as a high end wide receiver two insane efficiency? Seventeen point nine yards per catch, twelve point eight yards per target, two point six five yards per route run. I mean, as good as Ayuk is, those numbers are very unlikely to be repeated in twenty twenty four. And a lot of the things I was just saying about T Higgins apply to Brandon Ayuk. Like he may very well be playing somewhere else other than San Francisco next year. It could improve his target outlook, but again, no guarantee that a change of venue puts him somewhere where he's going to be the clear wide receiver one, or you know, it's possible he winds up playing with a quarterback a lot worse than Brock Purty.

00:53:23
Speaker 1: Let me ask you this real quick, FITZI, if he got traded to Pittsburgh, like that was a big rumor in the offseason, where would you have him? Where do you have him now? And where? How far down would he go? If he's playing with Russell Wilson or justin fields? It would be tremendous, right, It'd be a big drop, wouldn't it.

00:53:42
Speaker 4: Well, you don't like Roman Wilson because he's playing with Arthur Smith bogs. Yeah, and then like you know, Pickens isn't trash either, so that would be Like, again, I wonder what the target outlook would look like. Is there a path to one hundred and forty targets with him if he's in Pittsburgh this year? I don't know if there is, right honestly, So I've got him like wide receiver. I think I want to say, like sixteen.

00:54:03
Speaker 1: That's exactly where I have him sixteen.

00:54:05
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, And I don't think it would be any I don't know if i'd bump him up with a move to Pittsburgh.

00:54:11
Speaker 2: Honestly, so so fits If if so, obviously you think why year twelve, Like you wouldn't want him as a back end. You know your wide receiver one in dynasty? If he's your wide receiver two and your wide receiver one is just any of those guys in the top ten? Are you thrilled? Are you okay? Are you a little disappointed? Like? How are you feeling if he's your wide receiver two?

00:54:33
Speaker 3: No, Like I'm I think he's terrific.

00:54:35
Speaker 4: I'd be happy with him as my wide receiver too, But I'm just not willing to go out into a startup draft, yeah and pay the Rolex price for Brandon Ayuk when I don't know if he's going to get that many more than one hundred targets this year and I don't know what the target outlook is going to be in the future.

00:54:53
Speaker 2: Well, that's fair. I mean, I again, a targ is like everybody just consensus loves the player, but I question marks are reasonable. Bogwan, who's your last receiver here?

00:55:04
Speaker 1: Rashi Rice? And you know, look, I'm just done. I'm not doing it. You know the old saying like let people show you who they are and then believe them. That's what Rashie Rice has done. And look, he was great last year, but all of his greatness still made him, on average, a wide receiver three. So I think we have factored in a little bit for his downfall. He's wide receiver twenty five. I think he probably would have been closer to bumping up against a wide receiver one if he didn't have this off the field nonsense. But I'm just putting him down below a lot of these other talented guys. I think I would rather have the guys that we talked about before, the Jayden Reed, JSN Pickens, even Z Flowers. I just I expected to miss a big chunk of this year. And if Worthy, you know, takes a big step early. Now where are you? You're second or third fiddle? Right, because everybody behind Kelsey and they're gonna run the ball well, but check out a lot. So if Worthy is now the three, that makes Rice the four. And I don't want any part of that. So I'm just that coupled with the off field stuff, I want no part of Rashi Rice. I'm done.

00:56:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, let somebody else take on the headache. Yeah yeah, fits. What do you think?

00:56:17
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, even if Rashie Rice was a choir boy, I would have my concerns about him, because I think he was prolific out of necessity last year, and it was like a very specific role with this, like the catch and Ron get it to him just a few yards past the line of scrimmage and let him do his thing after the catch. He had less than five hundred air yards last year, which like that's largely because the Chiefs were so depleted at wide receiver and just had no one that Patrick Mahomes could rely on dependably getting open downfield. Now they've got Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, So like, I wouldn't be surprised if we look back on Rashie Rice's rookie year as the best of his career. Like He's he's got a lot more target pressure this year. It's gonna be hard for him to earn targets in this offense.

00:57:06
Speaker 2: Now, just one tight end we're going to talk about here for a fifteenth player. Fits, who did you pick? Oh?

00:57:12
Speaker 3: It's David Nijoku.

00:57:13
Speaker 4: I mean, of all these seventh year breakouts we've seen in the NFL, this one probably is my favorite. Nijoku finished tight end six last year, averaged a career high twelve point six PPR points per game. The bad news, of course, is that Joe Fleuh. David Nijoku's four highest yardage totals of twenty twenty three came with Joe Flacco at quarterback for the Browns rather than Deshaun Watson, and Nijoku scored four to six touchdowns last year with Flaco playing quarterback, even though he only played six games with Flacco, including the Browns lone playoff game, So QB play is an issue. And now that Nijoku is starting to get older, he did come into the year into the league young, So even though this is going to be his eighth NFL season, Nijoku isn't that old, but it's going to be his age twenty eight season, so no longer young man by NFL standards. And it's not that he's outrageously expensive. I think he's like cute tight end ten or tight end eleven.

00:58:11
Speaker 3: In ECR.

00:58:13
Speaker 4: But I would rather have the guys right behind him in ECR than Nijoku, Jake Ferguson, Cole Kmet, Pat Fryarmouth, Ben Sinnett, all of whom have lower ECRs. I'd rather have all those guys than Nijoku.

00:58:28
Speaker 2: Flacco loves tight ends. It's his favorite thing to do is throw to a tight end. So I agree that you need to take that with some degree of salt.

00:58:39
Speaker 3: Todd Heap, baby, well, Todd Heap. There as so many.

00:58:42
Speaker 2: Dennis Kiddo is the big one because they were like best friends off the fields. Yeah, made a very underrated catch in the mile High Miracle game, that amazing game in Denver in the twenty twenty twelve front which again nobody probably cares about. David and Jokubagman.

00:58:57
Speaker 1: I remember watching that game with my my boss had a restaurant who was a Broncos fan. I was depressed. I was visiting family.

00:59:05
Speaker 2: We're doing like a big board game weekend up with family in New Jersey and they're like, hey, let's all go to a bowling alley and it was like the second half of that game.

00:59:12
Speaker 1: I was like, do they have TVs there?

00:59:14
Speaker 2: And it was one of those alleys where they have TVs like over the pins, so you can kind of watch on a bigger screen. And I was not bowling. I was just watching the game.

00:59:22
Speaker 1: You're so nice. I'm already adjusting my entire Christmas schedule because the Steelers are playing on Christmas.

00:59:28
Speaker 2: Ravens are on the road for Christmas for the second straight year. That is, it's on a Wednesday. I don't mind football and Christmas. I hate the idea that they're doing it on a Wednesday just because it's Christmas. I'm so anti that.

00:59:42
Speaker 1: I don't like either one of them. I don't like Wednesday football.

00:59:45
Speaker 2: I don't like Christmas Christmas football. It's so terrib well. It's also it's early. It's like a one pm is the first game. I don't know I remember which one is the one pm game.

00:59:55
Speaker 1: But it's like for people at the West Coast, that's like ten am.

01:00:01
Speaker 2: Like what, I yeah, I think it's wild anyway, David and Joki, what do you think for.

01:00:07
Speaker 1: In Djoku, I'm I'm like right in consensus. I actually kind of like in Joku, I didn't realize that Flacco boosted his numbers up so high, but I also think that for a long time, the Browns just used in Joku the wrong way. They drafted him and Harrison Bryant. Harrison Bryant couldn't block, so they had him go out and run the routes and then Joku block. He is just so much better than Harrison Bryant. He's a complete tight end, and now that they're letting him catch the ball, I think that that trend continues a little bit. So I'm a little higher on in Djoku, but I don't want to be picking out of those tight ends anyway, So I want to get one a little bit earlier than that.

01:00:44
Speaker 2: If I'm doing it, Yeah, I'm with you there. We'll get out of there on that. Thank you everybody for tuning in to our do not draft players. Hopefully we were able to give you some advice in your startup drafts. For fits and Bogman, I'm Ryan Warmley. We'll see you again next week. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros, Die fasty Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros