What will decide the Buffalo Bills Houston Texans week 1 show down | DC

WEBVTT
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It's 38 all.
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Bills can win it here.
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Wright puts it down. The kick is on the way
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and it is good. And the Bills have won it.
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The Bills have won it.
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The Bills have won it. They win it 41 to 38.
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Incredible. What a comeback by the Bills. Jacksonville's perfect record
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on the line right here.
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Looney, keep it.
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Left side, touchdown. Kyle Williams, touchdown. Amazing.
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What's good, folks, family, friends? loved ones, enemies, frenemies, wizards, witches, muggles, mudbloods,
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people of Middle Earth, to another episode of Disguise Coverage,
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the only podcast that gives you an equal amount of
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blueberries in each muffin presented by the best pizza in Buffalo,
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New York, and that is One Pie Pizza. Find the
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online menu in the episode show notes, whether here on
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YouTube or whichever podcasting app or platform you're listening to
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this show on. I am your host, Anthony Prohaska, find
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me on Twitter at Pro underscore underscore Ant. That's Pro
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two underscores A-N-T. Find me on Blue Sky at Pro Ant.
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No underscores there, just P-R-O-A-N-T. In this edition of Disguise Coverage,
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the regular season in the NFL is upon us. It
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is week one. The Buffalo Bills play the Houston Texans
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in what is arguably slash probably Probably maybe most definitely
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the game of the week, potential large scale conference ramifications
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down the road, definite early way to kind of assert
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yourself and test yourself and prove you belong to Super
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Bowl hopefuls to conference winning hopefuls to maybe kind of foes.
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One of them has had the other's number for several years,
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that being the Texans over the Bills. And to discuss
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all that, to break all that down, to get into
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the weeds, to get into the details, to talk football,
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to break down the X's and O's and anything and
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everything in between. I am joined by sincerely one of
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my favorite guests making. I do this every time. I
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always tell myself to jot down how many times has
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been on the show. And I say this and I
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forget and I never do. But making his, you know,
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continuing his record setting number of appearances, essentially an honorable,
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if not. I would say probably just like unofficial co-host
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of this show at some point.
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Mr.
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J.P. Acosta of CBS Sports, all around ball knower, college football,
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NFL stuff, anime stuff, video game stuff, movie stuff. I
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love you as a person, as a football person. You're
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one of the best. I appreciate you taking the time.
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Welcome back to the show for the 97,000th time.
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Thank you for having me. You know, I'm trying to
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get like you. You're one of the best in the business.
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I always, whenever people go looking for Bills content, I'm
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pointing them your direction. It's exciting. This is, like you said,
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this is the game of the week to me. I
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know there's a lot of big games. This one not
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only is going to set the tone for the entire season,
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but this has huge ramifications for the AFC pecking order.
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Yes. And that's what's so You know everybody's like, okay,
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who you are in week one isn't really who you
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are in November and December, and week one is a
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lie and all that, but also it does matter, and
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I feel like both of these teams want to make
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a statement against the other one. The Texans kind of
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have some stuff to prove to themselves and everyone. The
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Bills have some stuff to prove to themselves and everyone,
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and also to the Texans, and we've got some great
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matchup stuff to get into, you know, the, the crux
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of this episode, JP and I will each be giving
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our top three matchup elements that we think will decide
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bills versus Texans could be as large scale or as
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small scale as we want, you know, super detailed niche
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down stuff or big picture type things. But before we
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get into that, JP, I had messaged you last week
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around just some of the conversation that's happening about the
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bills and in the AFC. And as we head into
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week one, again, before anybody's like, it's week one, we
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don't know who anyone, we get it, we get it.
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But as of right now, where do the Bills stack
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up for you in the AFC? And what does this
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game against the Texans mean for them? And honestly, the
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Texans too, in your eyes, in terms of who they
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are and what they could potentially be for 2026.
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So to me, the Bills and the Texans, along with
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the Jaguars, they all occupy this tier of teams in
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the AFC where, They do have noticeable flaws, but I
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think they can still win the entire conference and win
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the Super Bowl. I think if I were ranking the
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AFC or tier listing them, I like to do tiers
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instead of rankings because we get into what's the difference
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between team number four and team number five. It's the
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same thing. But I would have the Broncos and the
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Patriots as the top tier, especially the Broncos because I
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think the Broncos are– arguably the most well-coached team in
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the conference, and they did not lose any of that.
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While also adding Jalen Wall to that offense, I do
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think they should still be very good. And then I
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think the Patriots, as odd as their defense is, and
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that's a discussion for later, as odd as their defense is,
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I think their offense is just going to be much better.
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But I do think the tier of Bills, Texans, Jaguars
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kind of occupy an area where I have more faith
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in them than a team like the Ravens or the
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Chargers or even the Bengals. But I feel like they
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have major question marks that make me want to go like, hmm,
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I don't know if I want to put all my
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stock into these teams, but I do think if we
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get to the end of the season and any of
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those teams are hoisting Lombardi, I'll be like, yeah, that
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makes sense. So this game matters so much because this
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is how you differentiate yourself between these teams in the
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same tier. And it's going to ultimately set the tone
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for a season where both those teams, both the Texans
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and the Bills, are coming in with Super Bowl aspirations.
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And this is an important first step.
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I feel like the Broncos are weirdly– kind of slept
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on a little bit for whatever reason and i'm just
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like well they they return like their entire defense again
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which has been like one of the best defenses football
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they lost john franklin myers but they're still easy like
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for me like a top five unit you have one
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of the best defensive players in all of football and
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pats are tan at a premium position and then offensively
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you kind of return the same group and you add
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jaylen waddle who i mean him and him and courtland
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sutton i think are a really fun one two group
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and then the rest of that wide receiver core now
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it's like mims and franklin are depth guys you got
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pat bryant i like the addition of jonah coleman to
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the running back room you've got a good offensive line
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you've got sean payton at the helm i'm interested to
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see what him kind of handed the keys over to
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davis webb looks like and then the defensive side vance
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joseph is back again to continue like running things i
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feel like there's been so much conversation like oh the
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patriots and then the the bills and all this Josh
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Allen stuff that seems to be running wild nationally and locally.
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I'm so over it at this point. And then you've
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got like, it's just, it's just crazy. Cause I feel
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like there's, there's no in the, there's no meat in
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the middle now for like Josh Allen. And I, the
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bills I think are a different conversation now than Josh Allen,
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but there's like no meat in the middle for, for
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Josh Allen. It's either like bills fans think he's the
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greatest football player who ever existed. A bunch of national
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people think that, It's weird that he's getting all this
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shine because he hasn't quote unquote won anything. And there's
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like nothing in the and I'm just like so tired
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of like the discourse and the conversation and connected to
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Allen is the larger AFC picture, which I think is.
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I feel like this season as a whole mirrors the
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end of the season last year for the AFC, where,
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like you said and alluded to. there's like six or
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seven teams that I really, you really could like pick
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out of a hat and be like, Oh, that's the
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team that went to the Superbowl. I'd be like, okay,
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I could buy it. Like there's, I don't think there's
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a lot of separation between a lot of teams. Like
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I even look at the division races. Like I think
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the North is going to be a fight again. Maybe
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not necessarily. If I say this every year, if Baltimore
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is healthy, like they're always kind of like my pick,
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but then they always get injured and they find a
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way to have the most ugliest losses ever. Like they
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are just cursed for the past several years. But like them,
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Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a dogfight. The West is going
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to be really interesting because is it finally the Chargers
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year or are the Chargers going to charge her again,
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which they kind of already have because Rashawn Slater got
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hurt and they got injuries on the line, but it's like, no,
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they should still be fine. But what did the Chargers do?
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Are the Chiefs really dead or are they going to
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Michael Myers this whole thing because nobody cut off their
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head and they got kicked out of a window and
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shot out of a window, but they're fine. And then
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what do you get in the AFC East between... the
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Patriots and the bills and the Broncos are in the
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AFC West. So there's like, there's like a three team
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AFC West kind of fight. There's a three team AFC
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North kind of fight. There's a two team race in
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the AFC East. There's a two team race in the
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AFC South, unless maybe Daniel Jones really is okay. And like,
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can the Colts replicate what they did last year? But
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there's so much openness, which again is what makes the,
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this game so meaningful, even though it's week one, because
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this could be one where, you know, if the Texans
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win the South and the bills win the East, or
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if they're both fighting for wild card spots, now all
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of a sudden that head to head matters tremendously. And
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that's on top of just the whole, you know, vibes
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aspect of like, hey, we're both contenders. Let's see who
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owns who and let's see who does what. I'm just
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so incredibly excited for this game because of the potential
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ramifications and like the bigger conversation. I'm also terrified of
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what it is for the bigger conversation because I know
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the overreactions that are going to happen.
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Well, I think the overreactions happen. You know this. It's
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because we have deemed quarterback the most important position in
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the sport. So if you win, it's always a quarterback's win.
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It's always a quarterback. If you lose, it's always the
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quarterback's fault. And sometimes there's a meeting in the middle.
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And I think especially for where the NFL is right now.
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And again, no... No disrespect to either of these two quarterbacks,
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but Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts just won a Super Bowl.
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We have progressed beyond the need for QB-only discussions. When
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two of the best teams in the NFL just went
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and won the Super Bowl, it wasn't just about the quarterback.
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I mean, if you want to dissect how Seattle got
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to the Super Bowl and became Super Bowl champions... It
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was because of a very strong run game and their
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ability to disguise a lot of their explosive passing looks
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with their run game. And then the best, one of
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the best defenses in football, making the game easy. So
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I think, especially now, I'm not going to sit here
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and say quarterbacks don't matter. Although if you follow me
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on social media, that is a running bit of mine
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is quarterbacks do not matter. But I do think that
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the discussion about quarterbacks has become so toxic to the
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point where, You can't win a game and you can't
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lose a game without it being all a referendum on
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how good this quarterback is when sometimes it doesn't have
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anything to do with them.
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Yeah, it's really just gotten. I feel like it's part
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of the larger like hot take culture and debate culture
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where you can't say anything. I always give it back
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to him. Oh, have you ever seen the movie with
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Aaron Eckhart? It's called Thank You for Smoking. And he plays,
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he plays a smoking lobbyist and he's talking to his
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son and his like son asked him a question of
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something of like, you know, how do you like win
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a debate? And Aaron Eckhart's character is like, okay, like
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let's pretend we're on like a show and you think
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vanilla ice cream is the best. And I think like
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chocolate is the best. And the kid's like, oh, okay.
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Like I like vanilla ice cream, you know, it's the best.
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And he's like, prove to me that chocolate like is better.
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And Aaron Eckhart doesn't do that. He just gives this
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like generic answer of like, You know, I think we
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should live in a world where we can have chocolate
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and vanilla ice cream and like this and that. And
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the kid's like, you didn't prove to me that chocolate's
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better than vanilla. He's like, no, but I just proved
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that you're wrong. And I think we've gotten to so
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much of like some of that where everyone is just
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always trying to prove someone wrong or like take some, oh, well,
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like flip it on its head too of like the
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opposite of what his son says in that movie where
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it's like, oh, you know, I think Josh Allen's a
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good quarterback. So you think Patrick Mahomes sucks? It's like,
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I didn't say any of that. I didn't say any
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of those things. And everything is just, we're always trying
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to prove someone wrong. Everything's always trying to be spun.
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We're trying to pull every last, like, I don't know,
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confrontational aspect out of conversations. And quarterbacks are the epitome
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of that. Like, you cannot say, I've never done quarterback
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rankings because it's so toxic and I hate it. The
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only thing, and I think I've mentioned this to you before,
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the only thing I've ever done, like in 20, I
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think like 2022 or 2021, I did like a list
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of quarterbacks and who they would be in Dragon Ball Z.
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And I did Josh Allen as Cell. And so many
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people came at me and Bill's fans were like, oh,
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how dare you? Like Josh Allen's clearly Goku. I'm like,
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first of all, at that time, no, he's not Goku.
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Second of all, Cell is literally a combination of all
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the best fighters and is absolutely sick. Like that's not disrespectful,
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but because I didn't pick Josh Allen as like, the
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best thing Bill's fans were unhappy and everybody was unhappy
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because everybody thought that their quarterback should be Goku. And
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so everybody was mad. And I was like, I will
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never again wade into the quarterback discussion waters. I will
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never rank them and get into it. And this off
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season is just push that further. And it's funny for
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me too, because that discussion is kind of in the,
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it's still in the forefront, but the backdrop is defense, defense,
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matters a lot again and like having a great defense
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is now a more viable option to just winning the
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super bowl you can have a great defense and like
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a middling quarterback or a middling offense and a great
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round game ground game like all you need is like
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a really good defense and be somewhat explosive on offense
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and things can be okay and that's where like the
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texans come into this picture because it's like well their
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offense isn't good enough it's like yeah but if their
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offense can just be middling they can ride with that
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defense and go to a super bowl. And I think
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the bills are the opposite of that, where it's like,
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if their defense can just be middling, they can ride
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it with what should be again, a top tier offense
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with a, you know, even last year, well, you know,
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they didn't have receivers and Duncan Cade was hurt and
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everything was a struggle. And it's like, they were like
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top four in like everything like DVO way, like EPA metrics,
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success rate, all that. It's so funny how these two
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teams are like the antithesis kind of one another, where
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their questions are and what they're going to have to prove.
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And that's what makes this game so fun to break down,
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to talk about. JP, let's get into it. Let's get
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into the matchups. I'll break it down for folks. In
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case you're new or don't know what we're each going
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to do, JP and I are each going to give
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our top three things that will decide Bills versus Texans
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in week one. I don't know his answers. He does
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not know mine. It could be super niche down and detailed.
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It could be super large scale, big picture, granular, anything
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and everything is an option. JP, you are the guest.
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You may go first. The floor is yours. What is,
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and feel free to let everyone know, like if this is,
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if all these things are equal, if you rank them,
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you know, three, two, one, and where this one ranks
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for you, but the floor is yours. Give your, uh,
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your first answer.
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So my first one is Joe Brady versus the 11
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velociraptors with machine guns that are the Houston Texans defense.
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And the way I like to describe the Texans defense
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is that they are the antithesis of what a modern
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defense should be. And it doesn't matter. Like, they don't
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do any post-snap rotation. They're not stemming their fronts. The
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defenses for Mike McDonald and D'Amico Ryans for the Seahawks
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and Texans look completely different, and it doesn't matter. If
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you want to look at what the defensive meta is,
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it's all about simulated pressures, stemming your fronts, getting into
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bear looks with your linebackers walk down to the line
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of scrimmage, doing all this top-down rotations. The Texans don't
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do that. Like they don't at all. They're going to
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line up in exactly what they're going to tell you.
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And like, it's sort of like the opposite of that
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Roddy Piper quote, where it's like, every time you think
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you get the answers, I changed the questions. The Texans are,
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we're going to keep the questions the exact same, but
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you got like one second to figure it out. You,
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you don't have a lot of time to figure out
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what the answer is going to be because we got
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Will Anderson and the meal Hunter on the edge and
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then Kamari Lasseter and Derek Stingley at corner and And
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then Jalen Petrie in the nickel. It's just you go
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down the list. And I call them force multipliers. Guys
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who can tilt the scales. They change the numbers in
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favor of their team. The Texans have like seven of
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those guys on defense. There's really not a lot of
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stuff you can do. And the reason I say Joe
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Brady is because I think Brady has to find a
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way to maximize what I think is a I think
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the passing game itself has potential, but I do think
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they're still very limited in what they can access, especially
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because a team like the Texans were going to punch
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you in the mouth. And I think the biggest reason
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is because like another hilarious Texans defense stat, they blitz
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near the bottom of the world. They have one of
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the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. They are still
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a top five team in pressure rate without blitzing. I
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believe they were at 45. According to True Media, they
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were second in the NFL in pressure rate at 42.5%.
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When they blitzed, which again happened 22% of the time,
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they don't blitz a lot. They led the NFL in
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pressure rate at 56.9%. So even when they do decide like, okay,
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you know what? We're going to blitz. We bring them
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home anyway. They're going to win either way. And it's
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because What the Texans want to do is try and
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get you to 5-0 your protection. They want you to
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try and isolate every single one of your linemen. This
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00:19:16.599 --> 00:19:19.660
could really be a breakout session on Deion Dawkins and
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Spencer Brown against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniil Hunter. That
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is what's going to decide this game. Whoever slows down
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the other is probably going to win. Because last game,
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last time these two teams played, Josh Allen was sacked
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seven times. I think that was a game Spencer Brown
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wasn't really healthy.
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Yeah, he had one arm, and they left him on
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an island against Anderson and Hunter.
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Yeah, you know, when you get left on an island
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with one arm against Daniil Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.,
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who also are, like, two of the top ten defensive–
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You're going to give up seven sacks. So if Brown
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and Dawkins have a great game, I do think there's
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a chance and there's a way for this Bills team
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to attack the Texans. I think if you're trying to
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find somewhere to attack this team, it's got to be
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through the linebackers and it's got to be through the
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passing game. We're just going to go into a next
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matchup that I do have. But I really want to
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use this to sort of– Joe Brady has to find
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ways– to not turn this into a 45, Josh Allen
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drops back 45, 50 times a game during this game.
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You have to not turn this into a Josh Allen
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drop back game because I do think the Texans are
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going to win that.
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First off, I love your Velociraptors with machine guns reference
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because I've always said Velociraptors. I've never taken it to
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that next degree, and I've always in my head been like,
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I don't know what's crazier than a Velociraptor, and it's like,
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00:20:49.700 --> 00:20:53.920
give them machine guns. That's just phenomenal. Yeah, their defense
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is just filled with math changers, and I have two
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points that kind of tie into that, and I don't know...
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Which one? All right, cool. So I'm going to, I'm
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going to use yours to stem into one of mine.
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I never know how to rank them. So I'm going
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to treat them all as equal. Anyway, one of my,
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00:21:16.450 --> 00:21:20.089
and this fits in perfectly with your first point. One
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00:21:20.130 --> 00:21:23.799
of mine was the one-on-ones at premium positions. And I
398
00:21:23.839 --> 00:21:26.359
have three buckets for it. It's the bills tackles versus
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00:21:26.380 --> 00:21:30.500
the Texans edges. It's the bills receivers versus the Texans corners.
400
00:21:31.000 --> 00:21:34.440
And then it's Nico Collins versus the bills corners. But yeah,
401
00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:38.039
I want to start with the tackles versus Houston's edges. Yeah,
402
00:21:38.119 --> 00:21:43.079
just absolutely maniacal. And I love how you mentioned, you know,
403
00:21:43.339 --> 00:21:46.200
kind of where you pick at them, like staying out
404
00:21:46.240 --> 00:21:49.319
of situations. I really do think the Bills have to
405
00:21:49.440 --> 00:21:52.819
stay out of known passing situations and down in distances
406
00:21:53.140 --> 00:21:58.730
in this game. Last year, just on third down, so
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00:21:58.769 --> 00:22:03.049
on third down versus the Texans last year, Josh Allen metrics, well,
408
00:22:03.250 --> 00:22:06.420
Bills passing metrics, because they're the same thing. Again, I'm
409
00:22:06.480 --> 00:22:09.329
third down versus the Texans last year. The Texans had
410
00:22:10.130 --> 00:22:18.950
a 50% pressure rate. They had a 25% sack rate. Yep.
411
00:22:19.450 --> 00:22:23.769
The Bills had a negative 0.58 EPA per pass, and
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the Texans averaged 2.4 seconds time to pressure.
413
00:22:29.079 --> 00:22:29.400
They.
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00:22:29.910 --> 00:22:32.630
We're all over the Bills last year. The Bills got
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00:22:32.650 --> 00:22:35.349
to stay out of known passing situations and down in distances.
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00:22:35.630 --> 00:22:37.470
I think you got to lean into all the stereotypical
417
00:22:37.509 --> 00:22:39.430
stuff that everybody and their mother wants to talk about
418
00:22:39.470 --> 00:22:42.569
now if they watch like one matchup show. Under center
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00:22:42.609 --> 00:22:45.759
play action, chip help. We got to limit these true
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one-on-one pass sets starting with up front because, you know,
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and I loved your point too. the Seahawks are in
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this meta of like, oh, you know, like what's McDonald
423
00:22:56.849 --> 00:22:59.309
cooking up and what's this pressure package and what are
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00:22:59.329 --> 00:23:02.380
they doing on the back end? And the Texans are like, nah, man,
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00:23:02.420 --> 00:23:04.140
we're going to play like cover three and cover one
426
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in quarters and we're just going to rush four. And
427
00:23:06.440 --> 00:23:08.180
then it's like, well, how do you defend the run?
428
00:23:08.240 --> 00:23:10.880
And it's like with four or like a light box.
429
00:23:10.940 --> 00:23:11.940
And it's like, well, what do you do on the
430
00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:14.329
back end? It's just like, whatever you think we're going
431
00:23:14.349 --> 00:23:16.970
to do, like it's just kind of regular. Like they don't,
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00:23:17.470 --> 00:23:19.420
And not to say that, and they do have some
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00:23:19.460 --> 00:23:21.980
change-ups where it's like, ooh, watch them run this slant
434
00:23:22.019 --> 00:23:24.640
or this stunt, and they'll bring this five-man pressure and
435
00:23:24.660 --> 00:23:27.000
create a one-on-one, but so much of it is just like,
436
00:23:28.220 --> 00:23:32.410
we have studs, you maybe don't, or your studs aren't
437
00:23:32.670 --> 00:23:36.069
as good as ours, and our studs also want to
438
00:23:36.130 --> 00:23:39.109
rip your throat out and dance in your blood across
439
00:23:39.150 --> 00:23:43.069
the board. That's just how they are. And there's only
440
00:23:43.250 --> 00:23:47.420
so much you can do to combat that. And because
441
00:23:47.539 --> 00:23:50.799
they are, you know, at the, the, the edge spot,
442
00:23:50.819 --> 00:23:52.619
but then tying it into like my second point, which
443
00:23:52.660 --> 00:23:55.450
also goes into your bigger thing, like the Texans corners,
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00:23:56.190 --> 00:23:58.130
what they have on the edge and what they have
445
00:23:58.170 --> 00:24:01.589
at corner allows them to play just such a unique
446
00:24:01.670 --> 00:24:04.210
brand of football. Like you have the second best corner
447
00:24:04.250 --> 00:24:06.230
in all of football and Derek Stingley, and he's only
448
00:24:06.309 --> 00:24:10.630
second because Pat Sertan is unreal. You have, in my estimation,
449
00:24:10.910 --> 00:24:13.910
and my favorite player in football, Kamari Lassiter, who I
450
00:24:13.970 --> 00:24:17.579
think he's the best CB2 in football. I think he's
451
00:24:17.599 --> 00:24:20.240
a borderline low tier one. He's going to get paid
452
00:24:20.680 --> 00:24:23.619
in free agency. And it's fun because him and Bill's corner,
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00:24:23.640 --> 00:24:26.500
Christian Benford, for me, are the two best run defending corners.
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Outside corners, I should say. Well, now Devin Witherspoon might
455
00:24:30.140 --> 00:24:31.900
be more outside. So he's in that mix too. I'm
456
00:24:31.920 --> 00:24:35.410
going to call them all 1A, 1B, 1C. But Lassiter
457
00:24:35.470 --> 00:24:37.390
is just six. So you've got this awesome corner tandem
458
00:24:37.430 --> 00:24:41.240
on the outside. And then that's mirrored in the edge
459
00:24:41.299 --> 00:24:45.569
group with Anderson and Hunter. And then they added Jadavion
460
00:24:45.630 --> 00:24:48.950
Clowney who has like had like a sneaky productive year
461
00:24:49.309 --> 00:24:52.849
for Dallas last year. Like you've got three guys who
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00:24:52.910 --> 00:24:55.349
essentially were all, and I'm going to talk and use
463
00:24:55.369 --> 00:24:56.829
this time to fill space while I pull up this
464
00:24:56.869 --> 00:25:00.339
tweet from yesterday. You've got three guys who were all
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00:25:00.410 --> 00:25:04.940
like ridiculously productive and based on last year's metrics. So,
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00:25:05.640 --> 00:25:11.180
amongst 195 qualifying rushers across all positions for last year,
467
00:25:11.180 --> 00:25:15.490
195 qualifying players, here's Will Anderson, Daniil Hunter, and Jadeveon Clowney.
468
00:25:15.529 --> 00:25:17.670
Will Anderson, 5th in sacks.
469
00:25:17.950 --> 00:25:18.910
Hunter, 2nd.
470
00:25:19.230 --> 00:25:23.410
Clowney, tied for 28th. Anderson, 2nd in win rate. Hunter,
471
00:25:23.890 --> 00:25:27.339
5th in win rate. Clowney, 19th in win rate. Anderson,
472
00:25:27.779 --> 00:25:30.859
1st in pressure rate. Hunter, 15th in pressure rate. Clowney,
473
00:25:31.539 --> 00:25:35.490
7th in pressure rate. Anderson, First in pass rush productivity, Hunter,
474
00:25:35.890 --> 00:25:40.660
eighth in pass rush productivity, Clowney, sixth. You are just,
475
00:25:41.119 --> 00:25:44.240
and what do you do against that rotation? And then
476
00:25:44.259 --> 00:25:46.440
if you get into those known passing down and distances,
477
00:25:47.059 --> 00:25:50.200
can you beat Stingley and Lassiter? That's super hard. Can
478
00:25:50.240 --> 00:25:55.789
you protect against Anderson and Hunter and Clowney? And also
479
00:25:55.869 --> 00:25:58.329
like Sheldon Rankins and even some of the rotational guys
480
00:25:58.369 --> 00:26:00.670
like Logan Hall can do some stuff for you. Like
481
00:26:00.690 --> 00:26:02.769
he's a depth guy. See what Cade McDonald can be.
482
00:26:03.170 --> 00:26:06.109
I think Tommy Togiai is the most like underrated player
483
00:26:06.150 --> 00:26:09.099
in all of football. Dude is an absolute stud on
484
00:26:09.140 --> 00:26:12.220
the interior. Like eats doubles, beats the hell out of people.
485
00:26:12.740 --> 00:26:15.259
Like such a fun player. I feel like I'm one
486
00:26:15.279 --> 00:26:17.640
of the few people who is creating like Tommy Togiai
487
00:26:17.700 --> 00:26:20.400
cutups in the offseason. Like two and three minute long
488
00:26:20.440 --> 00:26:24.150
videos of Tommy Togiai just like being a menace on
489
00:26:24.190 --> 00:26:28.940
the interior. And they, it's funny, their defense too. They
490
00:26:28.960 --> 00:26:33.289
do the stuff that Sean McDermott wanted to be, which
491
00:26:33.410 --> 00:26:35.230
is we're going to win by it. We're going to
492
00:26:35.250 --> 00:26:37.450
rush the quarterback only with four and we're going to
493
00:26:37.490 --> 00:26:39.750
get pressure and we're going to get home and we're
494
00:26:39.769 --> 00:26:42.309
going to defend the run with light boxes. Like they
495
00:26:42.329 --> 00:26:46.559
don't have to allocate resources to rush the QB. They
496
00:26:46.599 --> 00:26:49.940
don't have to allocate resources to stop the run. They
497
00:26:50.079 --> 00:26:52.819
always have numbers in coverage. And then they've got studs
498
00:26:52.859 --> 00:26:56.700
at these premium positions that, And so just from there, like,
499
00:26:57.319 --> 00:26:59.890
can your tackles hold up against their edges? How much
500
00:26:59.970 --> 00:27:01.809
chip help do you have to get? Are you getting
501
00:27:01.849 --> 00:27:04.710
less guys out into the route distribution, furthering that numbers
502
00:27:04.750 --> 00:27:09.569
advantage further for the Texans? And then you've added DJ Moore.
503
00:27:10.470 --> 00:27:15.279
Dalton Kincaid is essentially a receiver. How do you beat
504
00:27:15.430 --> 00:27:17.740
their corners on the outside? Like what does Palmer give you?
505
00:27:17.779 --> 00:27:19.940
What does Keon Coleman give you? What is Shakir giving you?
506
00:27:19.980 --> 00:27:22.539
Although Shakir is more slot. It's really like, what does
507
00:27:22.599 --> 00:27:25.019
more do? Is he getting a race? The Texans are
508
00:27:25.039 --> 00:27:27.400
going to play man coverage. If you're running three by
509
00:27:27.579 --> 00:27:30.180
ones on the backside of, you know, their cover three
510
00:27:30.200 --> 00:27:32.519
or their quarters, they're just locking it. So it's essentially
511
00:27:32.579 --> 00:27:37.480
man coverage. Like those premium position battles, the bills tackles
512
00:27:37.519 --> 00:27:40.519
versus the Texans edges and the bills receivers versus the
513
00:27:40.579 --> 00:27:44.519
Texans corners. I think it ties into your point, and again,
514
00:27:44.559 --> 00:27:46.140
these are all equal for me essentially, but I wanted
515
00:27:46.160 --> 00:27:47.819
to lead off with it because I felt like it
516
00:27:47.880 --> 00:27:49.480
funneled into that so much because so much of that's
517
00:27:49.500 --> 00:27:52.259
going to come back to Joe Brady to being like,
518
00:27:52.319 --> 00:27:54.700
how do you beat these guys? How do you also
519
00:27:54.769 --> 00:27:56.710
learn from what you did last year and not leave
520
00:27:56.730 --> 00:27:59.769
your guys on islands? Can you win some of those one-on-ones?
521
00:28:00.109 --> 00:28:02.329
What can you scheme up to win the X's and
522
00:28:02.410 --> 00:28:05.730
O's battle? Because this is no disrespect to the Bills,
523
00:28:06.269 --> 00:28:08.069
you're not going to win the Jimmy's and Joe's battle
524
00:28:08.430 --> 00:28:10.569
because the Texans are going to win that against almost
525
00:28:10.630 --> 00:28:11.009
every team.
526
00:28:11.869 --> 00:28:14.049
And I think even when we were talking about Texas defense,
527
00:28:14.089 --> 00:28:17.460
I think we also left out Jalen Petrie, who plays
528
00:28:17.519 --> 00:28:20.339
a very important role in this game and in that defense.
529
00:28:20.660 --> 00:28:22.839
They can play light boxes because they have a nickel
530
00:28:22.859 --> 00:28:24.640
that plays like a linebacker.
531
00:28:24.940 --> 00:28:27.859
They change the math. You can stay, especially against a
532
00:28:27.900 --> 00:28:30.920
team like the Bills, where if you're 12 personnel and
533
00:28:31.029 --> 00:28:34.490
one of your tight ends is Kincaid, Texans don't have
534
00:28:34.509 --> 00:28:37.009
to do anything. They just stay with Petrie. And like, oh,
535
00:28:37.029 --> 00:28:39.710
you're going to go with a bigger body to 11 personnel? Petrie.
536
00:28:39.869 --> 00:28:40.309
You're going to go 12?
537
00:28:40.289 --> 00:28:40.549
Petrie.
538
00:28:40.950 --> 00:28:43.470
Petrie. Maybe even leave him in there at 13 and
539
00:28:43.519 --> 00:28:45.359
just send him as like a heat-seeking missile to blow
540
00:28:45.420 --> 00:28:48.420
up somebody. Like, yeah, he allows you to access more
541
00:28:48.440 --> 00:28:49.900
of the menu without having to turn the page.
542
00:28:50.579 --> 00:28:55.660
And because Petrae is such a good run defender and
543
00:28:55.829 --> 00:28:59.970
also is qualifying, like he is a solid pack guy
544
00:29:00.009 --> 00:29:04.049
in coverage. I think you allow Petrae to, even though
545
00:29:04.069 --> 00:29:05.410
he's like 5'10, maybe 5'11, like you can let him
546
00:29:07.910 --> 00:29:10.410
live in a world against Kincaid in the passing game.
547
00:29:10.609 --> 00:29:11.829
He's going to beat him up.
548
00:29:12.230 --> 00:29:13.670
He's going to beat him up at the line of scrimmage,
549
00:29:13.990 --> 00:29:16.549
and he's going to try and negate any chance of
550
00:29:16.789 --> 00:29:19.349
allowing them to breathe. So I think that's where the
551
00:29:19.450 --> 00:29:23.130
biggest thing comes in for this Texans game against the
552
00:29:23.170 --> 00:29:26.269
Bills and for the Bills is how do you access
553
00:29:26.349 --> 00:29:29.690
some of the signature Joe Brady stuff while getting them
554
00:29:29.750 --> 00:29:31.829
away from press coverage? Because if they're in a game
555
00:29:31.890 --> 00:29:34.769
where the Texans are going to line up and beat
556
00:29:34.809 --> 00:29:37.279
them up, at a line of scrimmage, they're not going
557
00:29:37.299 --> 00:29:40.059
to be able to do anything because again, as much
558
00:29:40.099 --> 00:29:42.500
as I, I make jokes about it all the time,
559
00:29:42.680 --> 00:29:44.700
Joe Brady's going to run mesh. He's going to run
560
00:29:44.740 --> 00:29:48.319
mesh return. That is the go-to play. If it's third down,
561
00:29:48.640 --> 00:29:52.140
best believe they are running mesh. The problem with the
562
00:29:52.200 --> 00:29:56.210
Texans is that they don't care. Like they're just going
563
00:29:56.230 --> 00:29:58.670
to stand at the line of scrimmage and you're not
564
00:29:58.690 --> 00:29:59.849
going to be able to get into your route.
565
00:29:59.990 --> 00:30:02.970
And last year was the game where all the meme, the,
566
00:30:03.029 --> 00:30:06.490
the mesh memes resulted because the Texans were literally all
567
00:30:06.589 --> 00:30:09.019
over it. They were passing it off every single locket.
568
00:30:09.259 --> 00:30:09.500
Yep.
569
00:30:09.619 --> 00:30:11.940
Including that fourth down stop at the end, they ran
570
00:30:12.000 --> 00:30:14.579
mesh and the Texans were like, Oh, here comes mesh again.
571
00:30:14.759 --> 00:30:16.200
We know what's happening. We'll pass it off.
572
00:30:16.799 --> 00:30:19.019
Exactly. And so I think if we look back at
573
00:30:19.099 --> 00:30:22.000
that game, which is the only frame rushers really have,
574
00:30:22.099 --> 00:30:25.980
but on third down, Against the Bills, the Texans played
575
00:30:26.220 --> 00:30:30.940
man coverage 62.5% of the time. That is their second
576
00:30:31.099 --> 00:30:35.680
highest metric that last season. The other time was week
577
00:30:35.680 --> 00:30:38.269
10 against the Jaguars. I think that was the first
578
00:30:38.329 --> 00:30:41.289
game that the Jaguars had Jacoby Myers and Brian Thomas Jr.
579
00:30:41.329 --> 00:30:45.289
was not in the game. Okay. So, 62.5% of the time,
580
00:30:45.349 --> 00:30:46.869
they're playing man coverage against the Bills.
581
00:30:48.029 --> 00:30:50.829
That's so disrespectful. That's so disrespectful.
582
00:30:51.930 --> 00:30:56.400
On third down. Against man coverage, the Bills had a
583
00:30:56.480 --> 00:31:00.059
negative 1.48 EPA per dropback.
584
00:31:00.059 --> 00:31:01.460
1.48?
585
00:31:01.460 --> 00:31:02.839
Negative 1.48 EPA per dropback.
586
00:31:02.920 --> 00:31:06.559
For those who don't know, that means essentially every dropback,
587
00:31:06.579 --> 00:31:09.509
they're literally like losing an expected point and a half.
588
00:31:10.069 --> 00:31:13.490
Because for context, they had a 33% sack rate on
589
00:31:14.309 --> 00:31:18.490
third down against man coverage. And again, hopefully that is
590
00:31:18.589 --> 00:31:22.990
tied to Spencer Brown actually being healthy for this game.
591
00:31:23.460 --> 00:31:26.859
But again, you trust your highly paid players. This is
592
00:31:26.900 --> 00:31:30.000
why you pay both those guys. But again, it's about
593
00:31:30.059 --> 00:31:32.480
your Jimmy's and Joe's. And if you want to try
594
00:31:32.519 --> 00:31:34.660
and play the Jimmy's and Joe's game against this defense,
595
00:31:35.480 --> 00:31:39.680
I highly advise against it because their Jimmy's and Joe's
596
00:31:39.740 --> 00:31:42.460
play at a different speed. Even Kalen Bullock, who is
597
00:31:42.619 --> 00:31:46.099
another force multiplier because you cannot put the ball in
598
00:31:46.160 --> 00:31:48.160
his area. He's going to go get it. He's going
599
00:31:48.180 --> 00:31:51.349
to go find the ball. That is their rangy sort of,
600
00:31:51.349 --> 00:31:54.230
I think he's a little volatile. But now that you
601
00:31:54.269 --> 00:31:57.210
have Reed Blankenship, who is another aspect of this defense
602
00:31:57.250 --> 00:32:01.329
where like they have, he's kind of, I think one
603
00:32:01.430 --> 00:32:03.730
of my coworkers, Brian McFadden, he calls him a traffic
604
00:32:03.750 --> 00:32:06.069
cop where he's like, he's going to make sure everything
605
00:32:06.089 --> 00:32:08.720
gets passed off. He's going to make sure everything's a
606
00:32:08.740 --> 00:32:12.740
connected issue. And Kalen Bullis is just going to go, okay,
607
00:32:13.059 --> 00:32:15.359
I can just play center field the entire game. Sure.
608
00:32:15.759 --> 00:32:18.559
And he's going to go and roam everywhere. So I
609
00:32:18.680 --> 00:32:22.430
think for this game, if they're going to be such a,
610
00:32:23.359 --> 00:32:25.660
if you're going to try and win on these crossing routes,
611
00:32:25.779 --> 00:32:28.619
I think another major part of this is beating their
612
00:32:28.680 --> 00:32:31.809
press coverage. You have to be able to win in press.
613
00:32:31.829 --> 00:32:33.730
This is why you go out and get DJ Moore.
614
00:32:33.829 --> 00:32:36.230
Like this is the game where if you want to
615
00:32:36.269 --> 00:32:39.309
have success against this team, you need to have somebody
616
00:32:39.329 --> 00:32:42.349
who can win in one-on-one situations. Someone who's going to
617
00:32:42.390 --> 00:32:45.589
go get you a bucket because if DJ Moore can't
618
00:32:45.670 --> 00:32:48.809
do it, I don't know who is because I don't
619
00:32:48.829 --> 00:32:50.450
think anybody is going to be able to match up
620
00:32:50.549 --> 00:32:53.269
to the physicality of the Texans secondaries.
621
00:32:54.400 --> 00:32:57.359
Fair point. And last year too, with all the pressure
622
00:32:57.400 --> 00:33:00.839
stuff for Allen, it was like, you know, Anderson and
623
00:33:00.880 --> 00:33:04.579
Hunter were winning up front. And if they weren't, Allen
624
00:33:04.619 --> 00:33:08.400
was trying to scramble and make something happen. And nobody
625
00:33:08.420 --> 00:33:10.579
was getting open downfield. I think back to the big,
626
00:33:10.599 --> 00:33:13.019
what was the, which there was that one where Anderson
627
00:33:13.039 --> 00:33:15.809
gets the sack and Allen loses like 17 yards or something.
628
00:33:15.829 --> 00:33:18.349
Cause he's just looking for somebody looking for somebody and
629
00:33:18.369 --> 00:33:20.390
there's nobody. And he's trying to run around and do
630
00:33:20.450 --> 00:33:22.980
something and he can't, um, it was just such a
631
00:33:23.000 --> 00:33:26.019
perfect storm last year. And yeah, you get DJ more
632
00:33:26.549 --> 00:33:28.289
to try and get you some buckets on the outside.
633
00:33:28.390 --> 00:33:30.309
Like you see, if you can beat somebody over the
634
00:33:30.349 --> 00:33:33.069
top or at the very least I'm hoping in this one,
635
00:33:34.390 --> 00:33:35.890
give me DJ more just as a guy who can
636
00:33:36.059 --> 00:33:40.119
stretch and pull coverage. Give me, If I can get
637
00:33:40.130 --> 00:33:43.900
Dalton Kincaid matched up in coverage on Toto or Al Shayer,
638
00:33:44.180 --> 00:33:46.099
I'm taking that matchup every day. If I can get
639
00:33:46.140 --> 00:33:49.299
Kincaid on Blankenship, I'll take that. I don't love him
640
00:33:49.359 --> 00:33:52.380
versus Petrie, but I'll take Kincaid against any one of
641
00:33:52.420 --> 00:33:56.240
those guys versus any of the receivers versus Stingley and Lassiter.
642
00:33:56.259 --> 00:34:00.059
And then hell, DJ Moore, athletic, can get downfield, make
643
00:34:00.079 --> 00:34:03.140
some plays on the ball, maybe draws a flag or
644
00:34:03.180 --> 00:34:07.089
two downfield, or maybe he can run straight by Kamari Lassiter.
645
00:34:07.119 --> 00:34:10.349
We'll see if you know, which corner matches up on who,
646
00:34:10.849 --> 00:34:12.250
but DJ Moore's got to be able to get you
647
00:34:12.269 --> 00:34:15.530
some buckets in some way. And it could be literal
648
00:34:15.789 --> 00:34:19.670
raw box score production, or it could be he's pulling
649
00:34:19.730 --> 00:34:23.130
something which opens up this for Shakir or opens up
650
00:34:23.269 --> 00:34:28.269
this for Kincaid. It's just, you need exactly your point.
651
00:34:28.289 --> 00:34:31.050
Like you need some kind of bucket getter at those
652
00:34:31.110 --> 00:34:35.159
premium positions. Some guys have to win some one-on-ones. And
653
00:34:35.199 --> 00:34:36.900
it comes down to the guys, but also Joe Brady
654
00:34:37.000 --> 00:34:39.199
can kind of set them up for success a little bit.
655
00:34:39.280 --> 00:34:41.630
So I love that point from you. Oh, and I
656
00:34:41.650 --> 00:34:43.849
guess my last little point for this, you know, one-on-ones
657
00:34:43.889 --> 00:34:47.809
at premium positions. Nico Collins is super good. I feel
658
00:34:47.849 --> 00:34:51.429
like we've forgotten about that as like a society because
659
00:34:51.469 --> 00:34:54.739
of what the Texans offense was last year. You know,
660
00:34:54.780 --> 00:34:57.920
it's funny. I don't remember. It wasn't last year. I
661
00:34:57.920 --> 00:35:00.690
think it was the year before. I think maybe it
662
00:35:00.710 --> 00:35:02.809
might've been for Bill's Texans, but you and I somehow
663
00:35:02.849 --> 00:35:04.809
got talking about Nico Collins in an episode.
664
00:35:04.849 --> 00:35:09.090
It was, I think it was, I think it was
665
00:35:09.530 --> 00:35:11.809
the 2023 or not 2020 or 2020. Yeah.
666
00:35:11.829 --> 00:35:15.389
The 2024 game in Houston. Yeah. I think. And we're
667
00:35:15.409 --> 00:35:16.889
talking about how good he is on in breakers. You
668
00:35:16.909 --> 00:35:20.639
were rattling off all these in breaker metrics, but Nico Collins.
669
00:35:21.019 --> 00:35:23.380
So from 2023 through 2025, it just went for the
670
00:35:23.420 --> 00:35:27.409
last three years amongst 87 qualifying wide receivers and second
671
00:35:27.429 --> 00:35:29.670
in yards per route run, seventh in yards per catch,
672
00:35:29.769 --> 00:35:32.690
fifth in receiving yards, seventh in first down catches, tied
673
00:35:32.730 --> 00:35:35.670
for seventh in touchdowns, seventh in yards after catch, and
674
00:35:35.769 --> 00:35:41.489
seventh in yards after catch per reception. He's sick. I
675
00:35:41.530 --> 00:35:44.389
know Stroud has questions. I know the offensive line has questions.
676
00:35:44.590 --> 00:35:47.570
The run game was atrocious last year. I'm going to
677
00:35:47.590 --> 00:35:48.550
talk about that in a little bit in one of
678
00:35:48.590 --> 00:35:53.070
my points, but from a premium standpoint, I'm interested to
679
00:35:53.110 --> 00:35:56.659
see the Bills' edges versus the Texans' offensive tackles, but
680
00:35:57.030 --> 00:35:59.929
I'm more interested to see, is Christian Benford traveling with
681
00:35:59.969 --> 00:36:03.800
Nico Collins? If not, how is Hairston holding up against Nico?
682
00:36:03.900 --> 00:36:05.460
Are they going to bracket him? Are they going to
683
00:36:05.500 --> 00:36:08.539
give him any kind of extra attention? Do you have
684
00:36:08.559 --> 00:36:11.949
to allocate resources towards him and or the run game?
685
00:36:13.190 --> 00:36:16.769
I'm really, really, really hoping they let Benford shadow him
686
00:36:16.789 --> 00:36:18.989
because I want to see Benford and Nico Collins battle
687
00:36:19.190 --> 00:36:21.230
all game. I want to see Benford get up and press.
688
00:36:21.289 --> 00:36:23.860
And I'm just saying, hey, good on good, one on one.
689
00:36:24.650 --> 00:36:26.909
fight and just see what happens and i want to
690
00:36:26.949 --> 00:36:29.570
kind of let those two you know uh i forget
691
00:36:29.610 --> 00:36:31.570
the actor's name but that first godzilla with the whole
692
00:36:31.590 --> 00:36:33.380
like let them fight like that's what i want just
693
00:36:33.389 --> 00:36:35.590
like let them fight and let's see what's up um
694
00:36:35.920 --> 00:36:37.739
but yeah nico collins is super good i feel like
695
00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:39.219
a lot of people forgot about that he's been hurt
696
00:36:39.599 --> 00:36:41.800
past couple you know banged up for the past couple
697
00:36:41.820 --> 00:36:44.960
seasons he plays through stuff quarterback play has been inconsistent
698
00:36:45.440 --> 00:36:46.820
um but yeah i just wanted to add that in
699
00:36:46.860 --> 00:36:48.880
i just i love nico collins so i just wanted
700
00:36:48.920 --> 00:36:51.420
to talk about him in some way in this episode.
701
00:36:51.929 --> 00:36:55.949
So a couple other fun Nico Collins stats. If we
702
00:36:55.989 --> 00:37:03.829
specify to slants, ends, goes, digs, according to media specifies, ends, slants,
703
00:37:03.869 --> 00:37:07.849
and posts. Since 2023, Nico Collins, first in the NFL
704
00:37:07.869 --> 00:37:11.849
receiving yards on those routes. First in receiving touchdowns on
705
00:37:11.889 --> 00:37:18.320
those routes. He also is fifth in yards after the catch.
706
00:37:19.159 --> 00:37:23.920
He averages 18.6 yards per reception on those routes. And
707
00:37:23.940 --> 00:37:27.610
the thing that makes Nico Collins so cool, and honestly,
708
00:37:27.619 --> 00:37:29.750
it makes it so like, as much as I do
709
00:37:29.789 --> 00:37:31.409
not like the Texans, the fact that my favorite team
710
00:37:31.429 --> 00:37:34.630
has to play them twice a year. He is a
711
00:37:34.929 --> 00:37:39.349
carbon copy of what Andre Johnson was for the Texans.
712
00:37:39.690 --> 00:37:44.070
A big physical monster who you run him over the middle.
713
00:37:44.110 --> 00:37:47.070
He's going to get hammered by somebody. He's going to
714
00:37:47.289 --> 00:37:49.530
get up, catch the ball, And he's going to line
715
00:37:49.570 --> 00:37:52.409
back up and do it again. All the explosives, all
716
00:37:52.469 --> 00:37:55.670
the big in breakers. CJ Stroud trusts him so much
717
00:37:56.010 --> 00:37:59.150
because he gives you such a wide catch radius. And
718
00:37:59.170 --> 00:38:03.250
he's also so explosive. You can't just sit on those
719
00:38:03.250 --> 00:38:05.550
10 yard dig routes because if he runs past you,
720
00:38:05.949 --> 00:38:09.840
he's scoring a touchdown. So I wonder what the Bills
721
00:38:09.880 --> 00:38:13.460
game plan is, because I also think. This Texans receiver
722
00:38:13.500 --> 00:38:16.550
core is not where you want it to be right now.
723
00:38:17.070 --> 00:38:21.800
Higgins has a torn ACL. Jalen Noel actually is like–
724
00:38:21.989 --> 00:38:23.829
I think he can step up for them this year,
725
00:38:23.849 --> 00:38:27.349
but he broke his finger in training camp. Probably not
726
00:38:27.389 --> 00:38:30.219
going to play that much. Keyshawn Booty is a very
727
00:38:30.320 --> 00:38:34.619
fun player, but he wasn't getting reps in New England.
728
00:38:35.139 --> 00:38:37.400
And then after you get past that, you get to
729
00:38:37.480 --> 00:38:41.309
like I think– Christian, not Christian Kirk. I think it's
730
00:38:41.329 --> 00:38:43.869
another Jack, former Jaguar. I think Zay Jones is on
731
00:38:43.909 --> 00:38:45.110
this team now. Xavier.
732
00:38:45.150 --> 00:38:45.610
I know you have it.
733
00:38:45.610 --> 00:38:45.769
Yeah.
734
00:38:45.789 --> 00:38:46.869
You have Xavier Hutchinson.
735
00:38:47.670 --> 00:38:51.949
Like they're the Texans are probably going to live out
736
00:38:51.989 --> 00:38:55.170
of 12 and 13 personnel simply because they have to.
737
00:38:55.789 --> 00:38:58.409
So because of that, I wonder if they pull out
738
00:38:58.449 --> 00:39:02.750
a little old Bella chick and just go one double 12. You,
739
00:39:02.909 --> 00:39:06.320
you put Harrison or whoever the second corner is and
740
00:39:06.360 --> 00:39:09.559
a safety. over nico collins and let benford just take
741
00:39:09.619 --> 00:39:12.880
away the next best receiving option because if you have
742
00:39:12.960 --> 00:39:16.599
two against one you can hopefully slow collins down and
743
00:39:16.639 --> 00:39:19.260
just force cj strout to go somewhere else with the
744
00:39:19.300 --> 00:39:22.849
ball because nico collins gonna get funneled a lot of
745
00:39:22.889 --> 00:39:25.909
targets this year especially over the middle of the field
746
00:39:26.429 --> 00:39:28.630
so i wonder if in this scenario do you have
747
00:39:28.650 --> 00:39:31.789
like a safety waiting to hammer on any dig route
748
00:39:31.889 --> 00:39:33.889
and you have the corner playing over the top, or
749
00:39:33.909 --> 00:39:36.389
do you have a linebacker underneath him where you can
750
00:39:36.449 --> 00:39:40.550
sort of have like, if depending on the situation down
751
00:39:40.590 --> 00:39:42.909
in distance and you're, you know, there's going to be
752
00:39:42.929 --> 00:39:44.530
an end breaker. It's going to be a slant. You
753
00:39:44.550 --> 00:39:48.139
can have a linebacker double on that end breaker and
754
00:39:48.179 --> 00:39:50.920
take away that window. So, I think there's a lot
755
00:39:50.940 --> 00:39:54.480
of options for Jim Leonard, but you have to revolve
756
00:39:54.519 --> 00:39:58.170
it around making sure Nico Collins does not catch the
757
00:39:58.190 --> 00:40:00.750
ball over the middle of the field. Because if he does,
758
00:40:00.769 --> 00:40:03.210
it's either going for a first down or a touchdown.
759
00:40:04.329 --> 00:40:08.389
My two biggest resource allocation questions for the Bills defense
760
00:40:08.650 --> 00:40:11.280
are how many resources do you have to allocate to
761
00:40:11.320 --> 00:40:14.119
stop the run in this game? And how many resources
762
00:40:14.139 --> 00:40:16.500
do you have to allocate to Nico Collins? And so
763
00:40:16.559 --> 00:40:21.380
much of that is math-changing potential options. On that side
764
00:40:21.400 --> 00:40:25.489
of the ball. Also tied within that. I do. I
765
00:40:25.530 --> 00:40:28.989
really want to see. A Nico Collins dig route. With
766
00:40:29.230 --> 00:40:31.349
Chauncey Gardner Johnson driving on it. And I want to
767
00:40:31.389 --> 00:40:33.329
see the two of them meet. And just collide. And
768
00:40:33.369 --> 00:40:35.289
I want to see who wins. And I want to see.
769
00:40:36.309 --> 00:40:39.369
How much chirping Chauncey does after it. Regardless. I just
770
00:40:39.489 --> 00:40:41.929
want to see that. You know it's funny too. When
771
00:40:41.989 --> 00:40:44.869
watching some of Nico's tape from last year. I think
772
00:40:44.909 --> 00:40:48.519
it might have been against the Jags. Maybe not. He
773
00:40:48.579 --> 00:40:51.940
runs a dig and just gets absolutely, Oh, or maybe
774
00:40:52.000 --> 00:40:53.929
is it Broncos? No, it's not Brandon Jones, but he
775
00:40:53.969 --> 00:40:56.670
runs a dig and the safety is waiting to poach
776
00:40:56.750 --> 00:40:59.610
and just comes and absolutely cracks him. And Nico just
777
00:40:59.730 --> 00:41:01.929
bounces off it and then gets forward for another seven
778
00:41:01.949 --> 00:41:04.150
yards while the safety just like stays down. And it's
779
00:41:04.170 --> 00:41:06.610
just like, Oh, like he's just, yeah, he's like six
780
00:41:06.630 --> 00:41:10.010
foot four, like 220 pounds. And he's also really fast
781
00:41:10.179 --> 00:41:12.440
and really long and athletic and runs good routes.
782
00:41:13.099 --> 00:41:13.500
Oh yeah.
783
00:41:13.599 --> 00:41:16.039
Super fun part there. All right. I like where we started,
784
00:41:16.179 --> 00:41:19.000
like where this conversation is going. I'm not, Too surprised,
785
00:41:19.019 --> 00:41:20.539
but I'm also happy that we differed a little, but
786
00:41:20.579 --> 00:41:23.480
we're able to unite the points. What is your second
787
00:41:23.980 --> 00:41:26.639
aspect here that will decide Bill's versus Texans in week one?
788
00:41:27.179 --> 00:41:28.760
So I'm going to flip it to the Bill's defense,
789
00:41:28.900 --> 00:41:31.980
and I'm going with a trio of people. I'm going
790
00:41:32.000 --> 00:41:36.940
with Jim Leonard, Deion Walker, and Ed Oliver against Nick Cayley,
791
00:41:37.480 --> 00:41:41.280
Keelan Rutledge, Ed Ingram, and I believe it's going to
792
00:41:41.320 --> 00:41:42.559
be Evan Brown.
793
00:41:42.840 --> 00:41:43.440
Yeah, at center.
794
00:41:44.519 --> 00:41:49.760
The Texans' offensive line is very fascinating. They signed Wyatt Teller.
795
00:41:49.780 --> 00:41:51.960
That's such a good way of being like, this might
796
00:41:52.000 --> 00:41:53.340
not be good. It might not work out.
797
00:41:53.579 --> 00:41:57.250
Oh, yeah. There's a chance that this completely backfires because
798
00:41:57.449 --> 00:42:00.690
they signed Wyatt Teller and signed Braden Smith in free agency,
799
00:42:01.090 --> 00:42:04.170
and neither of them are probably going to start. In
800
00:42:04.369 --> 00:42:07.679
terms of resource allocation, that's not a way to build
801
00:42:07.739 --> 00:42:10.519
a Super Bowl winning team. But when you think about
802
00:42:10.639 --> 00:42:14.440
what this Texans team wants to be and what they
803
00:42:14.480 --> 00:42:17.530
want to be this year, They're going to try and
804
00:42:17.730 --> 00:42:21.050
run the piss out of the football. You train for Montgomery.
805
00:42:21.449 --> 00:42:23.869
Woody Marks is bulked up a little bit. You go
806
00:42:23.909 --> 00:42:25.969
out and draft guy Marlon Klein, who I think is
807
00:42:25.989 --> 00:42:28.199
very quietly going to play a big role in this game.
808
00:42:28.440 --> 00:42:31.199
And you also keep like 75 tight ends on the roster.
809
00:42:31.639 --> 00:42:34.659
Yeah, like you're going to try and out physical other teams.
810
00:42:34.980 --> 00:42:37.460
And it matches up with where the Texans started to
811
00:42:37.500 --> 00:42:41.329
win last year when their offense just found something. It
812
00:42:41.369 --> 00:42:43.650
was when they put multiple tight ends on the field,
813
00:42:43.710 --> 00:42:46.789
put a fullback on the field and run duos. We
814
00:42:46.909 --> 00:42:50.159
cannot trust going to the spread or shotgun drop back
815
00:42:50.219 --> 00:42:52.659
game because we don't have the offensive line for it.
816
00:42:53.000 --> 00:42:56.650
And they probably will not because Ed Ingram and Trent
817
00:42:56.690 --> 00:43:00.110
Brown are starting at right tackle. Evan Brown is starting
818
00:43:00.150 --> 00:43:03.070
at center. Keelan Rutledge is a rookie starting at left guard.
819
00:43:03.559 --> 00:43:05.960
So now what you're worried about is getting in the
820
00:43:06.000 --> 00:43:09.139
dropback scenarios with those guys because those aren't– they're not
821
00:43:09.300 --> 00:43:11.559
pass first. They're going to try and lean on you
822
00:43:11.599 --> 00:43:13.559
in the run game. They're going to run a lot
823
00:43:13.679 --> 00:43:16.019
behind Ed Ingram and Trent Brown because that's a whole
824
00:43:16.059 --> 00:43:18.880
lot of people on that one side. And they're going
825
00:43:18.900 --> 00:43:20.559
to try and run duo. They're going to try and
826
00:43:20.599 --> 00:43:22.940
run at you. And if we know anything about how
827
00:43:22.980 --> 00:43:26.670
we've talked about the Bills' defense– They do not want
828
00:43:26.809 --> 00:43:29.210
to be, they do not want those problems, or at
829
00:43:29.250 --> 00:43:31.599
least they did not want those problems. They were built
830
00:43:32.039 --> 00:43:35.460
to play fast. They were built to attack zone runs.
831
00:43:35.800 --> 00:43:39.760
They were not built to attack gap or duo runs,
832
00:43:39.780 --> 00:43:43.900
which is essentially power without a puller. But I think
833
00:43:44.000 --> 00:43:46.360
with Jim Leonard and what Jim Leonard's going to have
834
00:43:46.409 --> 00:43:49.179
to do, I think he's more willing to lean into
835
00:43:49.219 --> 00:43:53.239
stealing gaps via slanting than Sean Dermott was. And I
836
00:43:53.260 --> 00:43:55.320
think that's going to be a major part of this game,
837
00:43:55.599 --> 00:43:58.199
which is why I highlighted Deion Walker and Ed Oliver,
838
00:43:58.539 --> 00:44:01.519
who are their best lateral movers on that side of
839
00:44:01.559 --> 00:44:05.309
the ball at defensive tackle. Deion Walker is such, again,
840
00:44:05.329 --> 00:44:07.269
I'm going to use the word fascinating. He's such a
841
00:44:07.309 --> 00:44:12.829
fascinating player because he's a 6'7, 340-pound three-tech player. He
842
00:44:13.489 --> 00:44:17.809
is not a defensive tackle that moves the way his
843
00:44:18.170 --> 00:44:21.869
size should, but that also means he's not going to
844
00:44:22.090 --> 00:44:25.139
hold the point of attack like guys his size should.
845
00:44:25.179 --> 00:44:27.019
He has a thin lower half, so what you want
846
00:44:27.039 --> 00:44:29.920
to try and win with him is going across face.
847
00:44:30.440 --> 00:44:36.000
Ed Oliver, fantastic, 290 pounds maybe. Go across the face.
848
00:44:36.489 --> 00:44:39.159
You know, if you're going to play TJ Sanders, crossing face.
849
00:44:39.599 --> 00:44:43.300
Everybody has to be slanting and moving. And I think
850
00:44:43.380 --> 00:44:45.320
this goes into a larger part. We talk about the
851
00:44:45.360 --> 00:44:49.360
passing game against the Bills pass defense, and it's changing
852
00:44:49.400 --> 00:44:51.659
the picture. And we talk about changing the picture a
853
00:44:51.699 --> 00:44:56.289
lot when it comes to defensive coordinators attacking quarterbacks. But
854
00:44:56.309 --> 00:45:00.710
it's also just as important about attacking protections and offensive linemen.
855
00:45:01.289 --> 00:45:06.239
Because the Texans last year were awful. In terms of
856
00:45:06.340 --> 00:45:09.739
blitz pickup and pass protection situations, because what they'll do
857
00:45:10.219 --> 00:45:12.010
is you knew they were going to four man slide.
858
00:45:12.690 --> 00:45:14.909
They'll form in one way and they're going to leave
859
00:45:14.929 --> 00:45:17.010
one of their tackles isolated and they're going to have
860
00:45:17.050 --> 00:45:20.670
a running back in to protect help protect. So if
861
00:45:20.710 --> 00:45:24.760
you show them one way. to force him to slide
862
00:45:24.840 --> 00:45:27.280
that way and then bring everybody else overloaded from the
863
00:45:27.320 --> 00:45:31.539
other side, you fooled them. You got them. And even then, like,
864
00:45:31.599 --> 00:45:35.469
you might not need to because, again, their pass protection
865
00:45:35.679 --> 00:45:38.530
is not that great. And that's how C.J. Stroud sort
866
00:45:38.570 --> 00:45:41.610
of looked the way he did was because they did
867
00:45:41.650 --> 00:45:45.769
not have very good blitz or pass protection plans. So
868
00:45:45.829 --> 00:45:48.309
for Jim Leonard and Deion Walker and Ed Oliver, I'm
869
00:45:48.329 --> 00:45:51.409
highlighting those three. because I want to see them attack
870
00:45:51.469 --> 00:45:55.090
the protections of this Texans offensive line that's just trying
871
00:45:55.110 --> 00:45:58.519
to find their best five. They got a second-year left tackle,
872
00:45:58.599 --> 00:46:02.539
rookie left guard. There's a way to attack this team
873
00:46:02.699 --> 00:46:05.900
offensively through the offensive line, and in the run game.
874
00:46:05.960 --> 00:46:08.480
That's the biggest, again, to go back to the run game,
875
00:46:08.800 --> 00:46:11.380
you have to stop the run in this game. Get
876
00:46:11.420 --> 00:46:14.739
them into obvious passing scenarios, and then you can start
877
00:46:14.760 --> 00:46:18.610
to pull out some of the cool blitz, the pressure scuff,
878
00:46:18.909 --> 00:46:21.889
that always gets clipped on social media. That's where you can,
879
00:46:22.190 --> 00:46:24.289
you got to earn the right. We used to call
880
00:46:24.329 --> 00:46:25.630
it earn the right to rush the passer.
881
00:46:25.789 --> 00:46:26.650
Yes.
882
00:46:26.730 --> 00:46:29.699
To go in, like make the cool Dan Casey blitz
883
00:46:29.739 --> 00:46:31.760
pickup stuff. You got to get, you got to earn
884
00:46:31.780 --> 00:46:33.659
that right. So I think the bills need to go
885
00:46:33.820 --> 00:46:35.179
earn that on early downs.
886
00:46:36.239 --> 00:46:38.980
I love that. That ties perfectly with one of my points. I,
887
00:46:39.480 --> 00:46:41.039
in general, I think the run game is going to
888
00:46:41.059 --> 00:46:43.070
matter on both sides of the ball. Bill's run game
889
00:46:43.110 --> 00:46:46.369
versus Texans run defense. And then Texans run game versus
890
00:46:46.409 --> 00:46:50.230
Bill's run defense. That particularly was one of my points.
891
00:46:50.269 --> 00:46:53.929
I literally titled it, What Gives? The Bills' run defense
892
00:46:54.110 --> 00:46:56.670
versus the Texans' rushing offense and how much of a
893
00:46:56.690 --> 00:47:00.949
difference can Jim Leonard make? For reference, last year, heading
894
00:47:00.969 --> 00:47:04.389
into their Week 12 matchup in late November, the Houston
895
00:47:04.429 --> 00:47:10.019
Texans were last in the NFL in rushing success rate
896
00:47:10.159 --> 00:47:14.219
at 35.1%. In the first half alone against the Buffalo Bills,
897
00:47:14.739 --> 00:47:19.750
they had a rushing success rate of 64%. Oh, an
898
00:47:20.010 --> 00:47:24.510
outrageous jump and a painful one. They finished that game
899
00:47:25.090 --> 00:47:28.010
with the seventh best EPA per Russian week 12. And
900
00:47:28.050 --> 00:47:29.989
then it ended up being, they were 10th overall and
901
00:47:30.010 --> 00:47:34.429
rushing success rate at 52%. So the first half 64%
902
00:47:34.429 --> 00:47:36.940
versus their season average of 35. And they finished the
903
00:47:36.980 --> 00:47:39.400
game at 52, which is still huge compared to their
904
00:47:39.420 --> 00:47:43.599
season average of 35 last year on the whole Texans offense.
905
00:47:44.380 --> 00:47:44.500
Cool.
906
00:47:45.130 --> 00:47:49.659
29th in rushing DVOA. 30th in EPA per rush. 25th
907
00:47:49.800 --> 00:47:54.980
in rushing success rate. 29th in explosive run rate. 21st
908
00:47:55.119 --> 00:47:59.000
in yards before contact per rush. 27th in yards after
909
00:47:59.099 --> 00:48:04.429
contact per rush. And 27th in yards per rush. A putrid,
910
00:48:04.809 --> 00:48:10.050
putrid run game. But the Bills run defense also really putrid.
911
00:48:10.949 --> 00:48:12.730
31st EPA per rush allowed.
912
00:48:12.750 --> 00:48:12.809
20th.
913
00:48:14.070 --> 00:48:19.210
And rushing success rate, 26 yards before contact per rush,
914
00:48:19.610 --> 00:48:23.949
32nd yards after contact per rush, and per NextGenStats, the
915
00:48:24.070 --> 00:48:27.750
worst yards after contact per rush mark since they started
916
00:48:27.829 --> 00:48:31.269
tracking data in 2018. And then the Bills were also
917
00:48:31.309 --> 00:48:34.829
31st in explosive run rate allowed at 13.4%. Those are
918
00:48:34.889 --> 00:48:37.429
runs of 10 or more yards. They would get some
919
00:48:37.469 --> 00:48:39.510
good stuff every once in a while, which are runs
920
00:48:39.570 --> 00:48:42.519
for zero or less, but that took a dip. The
921
00:48:42.559 --> 00:48:44.719
Bills run defense last year. This is no secret. They
922
00:48:44.739 --> 00:48:48.409
were terrible. The Texans rush offense last year. They were terrible.
923
00:48:49.190 --> 00:48:52.690
Which one gives in this game? Has the Texans offensive line,
924
00:48:53.150 --> 00:48:55.269
you know, you mentioned it, especially like you go with
925
00:48:55.309 --> 00:48:58.010
Keelan Rutledge in the first round, and I believe they
926
00:48:58.030 --> 00:49:01.219
traded up to get Keelan Rutledge in that first round.
927
00:49:01.719 --> 00:49:05.900
Mahler comes from Georgia Tech. If anybody watches college football
928
00:49:05.940 --> 00:49:08.519
and you watch Georgia Tech, you know what the MO
929
00:49:08.639 --> 00:49:13.119
is for Georgia Tech and that offense is I wonder
930
00:49:13.699 --> 00:49:16.800
who wins that battle because in and of itself, like
931
00:49:16.969 --> 00:49:18.269
it's going to matter so much for the game, but
932
00:49:18.309 --> 00:49:21.280
then exactly to your point. so much of what Jim
933
00:49:21.300 --> 00:49:25.000
Leonard is going to bring someone who I've been pounding
934
00:49:25.019 --> 00:49:27.579
the table for since 2021 and 2022 of you know
935
00:49:27.920 --> 00:49:29.639
wanting him to come to the bill because he's exactly
936
00:49:29.659 --> 00:49:32.340
what I thought they needed defensively from a philosophical and
937
00:49:32.380 --> 00:49:35.679
identity standpoint so much of what he does is man
938
00:49:35.719 --> 00:49:38.920
here comes this fun sim pressure this creeper pressure this
939
00:49:39.000 --> 00:49:43.119
five-man game how we're attacking protections, how we're attacking the back,
940
00:49:43.440 --> 00:49:46.519
how we're attacking the formation, what we're blitzing, what we're doing.
941
00:49:47.079 --> 00:49:49.179
You can't get to any of that. If it's constantly
942
00:49:49.239 --> 00:49:51.179
third and two, or if you get it to second
943
00:49:51.219 --> 00:49:53.719
and four and you rush for another first down, like
944
00:49:54.050 --> 00:49:56.289
not only do you need to stop the run to
945
00:49:56.369 --> 00:50:00.389
stop the run, but also get the Texans into those
946
00:50:00.489 --> 00:50:03.489
known passing down in distances and situations, and then let
947
00:50:03.530 --> 00:50:06.309
Jim Leonard kind of get into his bag, test that
948
00:50:06.369 --> 00:50:09.239
Texans offensive line, Are you guys really good? Are you
949
00:50:09.260 --> 00:50:11.559
that much better than last year? Is this the best
950
00:50:11.619 --> 00:50:15.550
combination of your start starting five? Is CJ Stroud like,
951
00:50:15.889 --> 00:50:18.309
does he have the yips or is he fine? And
952
00:50:18.349 --> 00:50:20.369
is he going to get back to rookie level CJ Stroud,
953
00:50:20.610 --> 00:50:24.190
which was really good. All of that starts with the
954
00:50:24.230 --> 00:50:27.050
run game winning on early downs. And I loved your
955
00:50:27.130 --> 00:50:32.179
point of this Bill's defense is, is going to be movement-based.
956
00:50:32.199 --> 00:50:36.070
You're going to get run blitzes, run stunts, slants. You're
957
00:50:36.090 --> 00:50:38.909
going to get a lot of design movement or the
958
00:50:38.949 --> 00:50:42.090
second level playing off the front. But for as much
959
00:50:42.150 --> 00:50:45.190
as you are going to get that, at a certain point,
960
00:50:46.329 --> 00:50:48.289
you are going to have to play at the point
961
00:50:48.309 --> 00:50:50.730
of attack and say, nuh-uh, you're not going to move me.
962
00:50:51.269 --> 00:50:53.969
And I don't know if the Bills are capable of
963
00:50:54.030 --> 00:50:56.650
that right now. And that starts with Deion Walker, someone who,
964
00:50:57.190 --> 00:50:58.809
I say this every time I talk about him, You
965
00:50:58.829 --> 00:51:00.780
called him the Iron Giant on one of these shows
966
00:51:00.800 --> 00:51:03.090
with me a couple years ago. He's huge. Doesn't have
967
00:51:03.110 --> 00:51:06.190
a lower body bend. It's hard to get low when
968
00:51:06.210 --> 00:51:09.929
you're 6'7. It's hard to mitigate displacement and hold the
969
00:51:09.969 --> 00:51:13.199
point of attack when you're 6'7. And guys can get
970
00:51:13.280 --> 00:51:15.380
under you and maybe move you a little bit. I
971
00:51:15.400 --> 00:51:18.900
have questions at the other interior spots with TJ Sanders
972
00:51:19.460 --> 00:51:22.360
and Landon Jackson. Both of them got moved around a
973
00:51:22.400 --> 00:51:24.980
good chunk in this preseason. And for a team, like
974
00:51:25.019 --> 00:51:27.380
you said, I love the duo point for the Texans.
975
00:51:27.880 --> 00:51:30.780
Duo is an at-you run. Duo is a, hey, man,
976
00:51:31.500 --> 00:51:35.170
you versus me. Here's the line. Let's see who moves who.
977
00:51:36.090 --> 00:51:37.769
Can you hold up at the point of attack? And
978
00:51:37.789 --> 00:51:40.570
the Texans, I think, have questions of can they people
979
00:51:40.630 --> 00:51:43.360
move at the point of attack? Can they stay organized?
980
00:51:43.679 --> 00:51:47.039
So what gives? How much does it give with that
981
00:51:47.119 --> 00:51:50.639
run aspect? How it ties into the larger picture. And
982
00:51:50.860 --> 00:51:53.179
something else I wanted to mention, too, with the scheme change.
983
00:51:54.099 --> 00:51:58.219
Jim Leonard mentioned this specifically speaking on Terrell Bernard back
984
00:51:58.260 --> 00:52:01.260
in August. But this nugget also tied into how the
985
00:52:01.300 --> 00:52:04.070
linebackers are going to play more in this defense. So
986
00:52:04.090 --> 00:52:06.710
Jim Leonard was talking about Bernard and he said, you know,
987
00:52:06.730 --> 00:52:09.130
he's so smart. Sometimes you want him to turn his
988
00:52:09.190 --> 00:52:11.789
brain off and just go play free and react to
989
00:52:11.829 --> 00:52:15.510
what he sees rather than overthink it. That's the biggest thing.
990
00:52:16.139 --> 00:52:18.699
It was a little more structured in what he was
991
00:52:18.940 --> 00:52:22.239
asked to do in the previous scheme. It was very much, quote,
992
00:52:22.659 --> 00:52:25.960
I see this, I do this. And just getting him
993
00:52:26.000 --> 00:52:28.800
to play a little bit more free was probably the
994
00:52:28.900 --> 00:52:32.019
number one thing. And here's the big point, tying into
995
00:52:32.039 --> 00:52:34.980
our conversation here. If you want to play the way
996
00:52:35.099 --> 00:52:39.260
we want to up front, in front of him, Bernard's
997
00:52:39.280 --> 00:52:41.650
going to have to react a little bit more. And
998
00:52:41.710 --> 00:52:43.809
that was the number one thing he's had to learn.
999
00:52:44.260 --> 00:52:48.170
This defense is going to be moving and stunting and slanting,
1000
00:52:48.489 --> 00:52:50.849
and it might work right away. It might blow up,
1001
00:52:50.909 --> 00:52:52.809
and the linebackers are going to have to make it right,
1002
00:52:53.230 --> 00:52:55.969
but you're going to get a lot of movement. Leonard's
1003
00:52:56.030 --> 00:52:58.530
defense is in Wisconsin. When he was defensive coordinator there,
1004
00:52:58.570 --> 00:53:00.530
they had a lot of movement. You also had a
1005
00:53:00.570 --> 00:53:02.690
lot of gap and a half. You had guys playing
1006
00:53:02.730 --> 00:53:04.469
at the point of attack. For as much as Keanu
1007
00:53:04.510 --> 00:53:07.150
Benton is sick and he's crossing face and doing all
1008
00:53:07.190 --> 00:53:09.590
this stuff, Keanu Benton was also holding at the point
1009
00:53:09.610 --> 00:53:11.590
of attack and playing gap and a half and also
1010
00:53:11.639 --> 00:53:15.340
two gapping and stuff. Can they do that? Or is
1011
00:53:15.400 --> 00:53:18.400
it on Leonard to push the right buttons and pull
1012
00:53:18.440 --> 00:53:21.280
the right levers and win with his play calls and
1013
00:53:21.369 --> 00:53:23.849
win with the scheme and then how that ties into
1014
00:53:23.869 --> 00:53:27.849
the individual aspect? The run game conversation for Texans offense,
1015
00:53:27.889 --> 00:53:31.670
Bills defense, I feel like is like an iceberg and
1016
00:53:31.690 --> 00:53:35.070
has layer after layer after layer. It's a parfait or
1017
00:53:35.110 --> 00:53:37.989
it's an ogre like an onion. It's just layer after
1018
00:53:38.030 --> 00:53:41.289
layer after layer and all these subplots because there's so
1019
00:53:41.329 --> 00:53:42.570
many things that connect to it.
1020
00:53:43.260 --> 00:53:45.619
And one of the big parts where it connects is
1021
00:53:46.090 --> 00:53:48.210
with what the Texans want to be in the passing
1022
00:53:48.230 --> 00:53:52.510
game as well. They're not going to try and be
1023
00:53:52.570 --> 00:53:54.889
a quick game team this year. Their quick game is
1024
00:53:54.909 --> 00:53:57.429
their run game. They don't have the receivers to do
1025
00:53:57.449 --> 00:53:59.809
quick game stuff right now. They are going to try
1026
00:53:59.849 --> 00:54:03.110
and take shots downfield, which means they're going to try
1027
00:54:03.150 --> 00:54:06.719
and load everybody. It's the new meta. Everybody's talking about
1028
00:54:06.719 --> 00:54:09.199
13 personnel. I think the Texans are going to go.
1029
00:54:10.239 --> 00:54:14.239
I would say less 13, but more 21, 22. Like
1030
00:54:14.260 --> 00:54:16.630
they're going to try and get really big with the
1031
00:54:16.710 --> 00:54:21.170
fullback and see in this game for Jim Leonard. Do
1032
00:54:21.269 --> 00:54:25.210
you do you respect their run game? Because the biggest
1033
00:54:25.269 --> 00:54:29.769
thing is this team and this Texas team, you have to,
1034
00:54:30.030 --> 00:54:31.860
like we say, earn the right to rest a passer.
1035
00:54:32.219 --> 00:54:33.639
You got to earn the right to throw the ball
1036
00:54:33.679 --> 00:54:38.309
downfield sometimes. You can throw out as many tight ends
1037
00:54:38.389 --> 00:54:40.289
as you want. You can put as many fullbacks on
1038
00:54:40.309 --> 00:54:43.050
the field as you want. But if you can't move people,
1039
00:54:43.150 --> 00:54:45.809
we're going to stick in nickel. And that's, again, we
1040
00:54:45.829 --> 00:54:48.789
talked about the Seahawks at the top. The Seahawks won
1041
00:54:48.809 --> 00:54:52.429
the Super Bowl based on that mantra. We don't care
1042
00:54:52.630 --> 00:54:54.130
what you put out onto the field. We're going to
1043
00:54:54.150 --> 00:54:57.469
play nickel until you decide or until you make us
1044
00:54:57.730 --> 00:55:00.130
earn having to play nickel against your 12 or 13 personnel.
1045
00:55:01.610 --> 00:55:04.570
So against this Texas team that still has a little
1046
00:55:04.590 --> 00:55:09.369
bit of questions, I also think which side breaks first,
1047
00:55:09.630 --> 00:55:12.909
which side decides, hey, we're running to a brick wall.
1048
00:55:12.949 --> 00:55:15.550
This isn't worth it. Let's go spread and shred. Or
1049
00:55:16.050 --> 00:55:18.989
we can't defend this out of light boxes. We got
1050
00:55:19.010 --> 00:55:21.280
to move somebody down. We got to start playing a
1051
00:55:21.300 --> 00:55:25.239
little bigger. Whichever side starts to do that first, I
1052
00:55:25.300 --> 00:55:27.340
think will be a huge factor in this game because
1053
00:55:27.360 --> 00:55:29.460
it's going to open up. Like we said, if you
1054
00:55:29.500 --> 00:55:32.389
want to try and double Nico Collins, You can't really
1055
00:55:32.449 --> 00:55:37.070
do that at a single high. So if you want
1056
00:55:37.130 --> 00:55:40.630
to keep a lid on Collins specifically, you've got to
1057
00:55:40.670 --> 00:55:43.570
defend the run maybe one man down. And can they
1058
00:55:43.630 --> 00:55:45.869
do that? Do they have the bodies to do that
1059
00:55:46.210 --> 00:55:48.010
is going to be the biggest question. Yes.
1060
00:55:48.159 --> 00:55:50.760
Can they win some one-on-ones up front? Can they steal
1061
00:55:50.800 --> 00:55:53.199
some gaps? Can you get one guy to eat two
1062
00:55:53.239 --> 00:55:56.579
blockers and change the math? And honestly, that goes on
1063
00:55:56.639 --> 00:56:00.119
both sides. But yeah, this Bills defense, and especially with
1064
00:56:00.199 --> 00:56:04.969
us not you know, not having seen Jim Leonard with
1065
00:56:05.010 --> 00:56:08.949
this team before and how vanilla a lot of what
1066
00:56:08.989 --> 00:56:11.849
they were doing was in the preseason and understandably. So like,
1067
00:56:12.630 --> 00:56:16.329
this is a guy who served under Vance Joseph and
1068
00:56:16.369 --> 00:56:20.530
who served under Rex Ryan to very creative, especially Rex Ryan,
1069
00:56:20.550 --> 00:56:23.190
who was very much, I know the connotation and the
1070
00:56:23.210 --> 00:56:26.170
association that Rex Ryan has in Buffalo because of how
1071
00:56:26.250 --> 00:56:28.650
terrible his run went and what he did to the
1072
00:56:28.690 --> 00:56:30.949
cold front defense and trying to put a square peg
1073
00:56:30.969 --> 00:56:35.369
into a round hole. But Rex Ryan, when Leonard was
1074
00:56:35.429 --> 00:56:38.230
cutting his teeth with Baltimore and the Jets, Rex Ryan
1075
00:56:38.269 --> 00:56:40.010
was at the peak of his powers and was a
1076
00:56:40.030 --> 00:56:45.969
defensive mind that people to this day still copy, still imitate, duplicate,
1077
00:56:46.190 --> 00:56:48.530
and Leonard is one of those guys, along with what
1078
00:56:48.550 --> 00:56:50.389
he's learned the past couple years with Vance Joseph and
1079
00:56:50.409 --> 00:56:52.610
then his time with Justin Wilcox, a little bit with
1080
00:56:52.630 --> 00:56:56.789
Dave Aranda. And so, yeah, what does Leonard lean into?
1081
00:56:56.829 --> 00:56:59.610
We haven't really seen it, but he can't get into
1082
00:56:59.690 --> 00:57:03.000
all the creative stuff if they can't stop the run.
1083
00:57:03.119 --> 00:57:05.360
And then again, even that run piece, like, do they
1084
00:57:05.380 --> 00:57:07.360
got to do it from base? Are they in five
1085
00:57:07.409 --> 00:57:10.869
man surfaces? If they're in four down nickel stuff, can
1086
00:57:10.909 --> 00:57:13.250
they stop it in four down nickel stuff? Like what's
1087
00:57:13.289 --> 00:57:16.570
your interior rotation? Like is Greg Gaines going to give
1088
00:57:16.610 --> 00:57:19.610
you meaningful snaps on the inside? Like, is it Dwayne Carter?
1089
00:57:19.650 --> 00:57:22.489
Can Jackson and Sanders be anything like how much does
1090
00:57:22.630 --> 00:57:24.989
Oliver win his stuff? Like, can Oliver just win with
1091
00:57:25.050 --> 00:57:27.349
quickness and be like, Oh, what's up at Ingram? Like
1092
00:57:27.510 --> 00:57:29.820
skirt and just slice right by him and get into
1093
00:57:29.840 --> 00:57:33.730
the backfield. Oh, again, so many layers and so many
1094
00:57:33.750 --> 00:57:37.170
good points. I love, I figured you would have something
1095
00:57:37.190 --> 00:57:40.929
that connected to that. And I was just waiting for when.
1096
00:57:41.070 --> 00:57:42.769
And so I love that you made that point because
1097
00:57:42.789 --> 00:57:45.269
it gave me an easy segue there. All right, we've
1098
00:57:45.309 --> 00:57:49.789
each given two. Now we each have our final third point. JP,
1099
00:57:49.809 --> 00:57:53.010
your third aspect that will decide Bills versus Texans in
1100
00:57:53.070 --> 00:57:53.510
week one.
1101
00:57:54.349 --> 00:57:57.840
So mine, I want to talk about two Bills players specifically.
1102
00:57:58.380 --> 00:58:03.230
James Cook and Ty Johnson. I think he's to this game.
1103
00:58:03.369 --> 00:58:06.429
Ty Johnson, low key. One of my, one of the
1104
00:58:06.469 --> 00:58:08.809
most fun players in the NFL, because you know, when
1105
00:58:08.929 --> 00:58:11.889
he's on the field, the bills are throwing the ball
1106
00:58:12.469 --> 00:58:15.110
and Ty Johnson's probably going to play a factor in
1107
00:58:15.159 --> 00:58:18.530
that passing concept. That's, that's what he does on the
1108
00:58:18.570 --> 00:58:22.420
field because whenever he is in the game, like he
1109
00:58:22.460 --> 00:58:26.179
is going to find targets for comparison. He had 24 targets.
1110
00:58:27.320 --> 00:58:31.380
last season and two touchdowns. He averaged 11 yards per catch.
1111
00:58:32.219 --> 00:58:35.300
And I think for this team and for this game specifically,
1112
00:58:35.320 --> 00:58:38.829
we talked about how much the Texans did not respect
1113
00:58:39.449 --> 00:58:43.269
the Bills passing game at all. They played man coverage 62.5%
1114
00:58:43.269 --> 00:58:45.949
of the time. Well, if you're going to play man coverage,
1115
00:58:46.349 --> 00:58:49.130
and we talked about the weakest link in this defense
1116
00:58:49.409 --> 00:58:53.619
might be Henry Toto, maybe Aziz Alshair, if you really
1117
00:58:53.659 --> 00:58:56.079
want to try and go at them. It's going to
1118
00:58:56.099 --> 00:58:58.599
have to be the running backs because with the way
1119
00:58:58.619 --> 00:59:01.769
that they play nickel, Kincaid probably going to see a
1120
00:59:01.949 --> 00:59:06.869
lot of Jalen Petray. I wouldn't even be surprised if
1121
00:59:06.889 --> 00:59:11.659
they put Kamari Lassiter on Dalton Kincaid. and let Petrie
1122
00:59:11.719 --> 00:59:15.369
match with Shakir and just get the bigger, more physical
1123
00:59:15.429 --> 00:59:18.730
guy to just kind of play bully ball with Kincaid.
1124
00:59:19.489 --> 00:59:23.289
So if those guys are like, if you're saying man v. man,
1125
00:59:23.530 --> 00:59:25.920
if you're going down the board and seeing which matchup
1126
00:59:25.960 --> 00:59:28.829
you like, you'll probably get the Ty Johnson and James
1127
00:59:28.929 --> 00:59:32.460
Cook against the linebackers where you're like, okay, I think
1128
00:59:32.539 --> 00:59:36.059
we can win here. And because of how much this
1129
00:59:36.320 --> 00:59:39.659
passing game is predicated on the running backs, you know
1130
00:59:39.800 --> 00:59:42.639
all the movement stuff they do. They'll motion a guy
1131
00:59:42.719 --> 00:59:44.409
out of the backfield and motion him back in for
1132
00:59:44.449 --> 00:59:47.210
a man or zone tell, and then roll fast out
1133
00:59:47.230 --> 00:59:50.090
to the flat or get them designed routes. I want
1134
00:59:50.130 --> 00:59:54.659
to see if Joe Brady can get them designed targets downfield.
1135
00:59:55.079 --> 00:59:57.679
I think that's where the next evolution of this passing
1136
00:59:57.699 --> 01:00:01.639
game can go is getting your running backs vertical, especially
1137
01:00:01.699 --> 01:00:05.360
with how, again, I say this kindly, especially with how
1138
01:00:05.530 --> 01:00:09.849
shallow the route depth for the receivers are. You need
1139
01:00:10.030 --> 01:00:14.170
somebody to do something downfield. Again, I use this comparison
1140
01:00:14.190 --> 01:00:16.429
all the time. It's like you have a bunch of
1141
01:00:16.469 --> 01:00:18.670
DeMar DeRozans on the field.
1142
01:00:19.369 --> 01:00:20.889
Yeah, you have me there.
1143
01:00:21.489 --> 01:00:25.300
You need a three-point shooter. You need somebody who can
1144
01:00:25.340 --> 01:00:26.599
create something downfield.
1145
01:00:26.619 --> 01:00:30.159
Can't just have all mid-range jumpers. That can't just be it.
1146
01:00:30.659 --> 01:00:33.800
Yeah, mid-range jumper looks awesome when it hits. I love
1147
01:00:33.820 --> 01:00:37.070
the mid-range jumper. But if everybody on the court is
1148
01:00:37.139 --> 01:00:40.170
only shooting mid-range jumpers, defense is just going to sit
1149
01:00:40.210 --> 01:00:42.769
there and be like, all right, there's no reason to
1150
01:00:43.409 --> 01:00:48.090
try and extend our defense. So you're playing into their hands.
1151
01:00:48.210 --> 01:00:51.150
So with the Texans, if you have nobody that they
1152
01:00:51.190 --> 01:00:54.989
respect defensively, going downfield, they're just going to sit on
1153
01:00:55.159 --> 01:00:57.309
every crossing route. They're going to sit on every mesh
1154
01:00:57.349 --> 01:01:00.989
concept like they did last year. So if you're looking
1155
01:01:01.050 --> 01:01:03.070
for a 1v1 matchup, I think it's got to be
1156
01:01:03.090 --> 01:01:05.570
James Cook. It's got to be Ty Johnson. And then
1157
01:01:05.650 --> 01:01:11.659
last season, the Bills actually had the most successful run game,
1158
01:01:11.739 --> 01:01:14.159
one of the most successful run games against the Texans
1159
01:01:14.179 --> 01:01:16.500
that we saw. They were fourth in the NFL, or
1160
01:01:16.659 --> 01:01:18.800
fourth against the Texans in success rate. Although again, 38.1%,
1161
01:01:18.800 --> 01:01:24.260
which is not great. But this is the Texans defense.
1162
01:01:24.280 --> 01:01:26.960
So there's the fourth highest success rate they gave up
1163
01:01:27.159 --> 01:01:31.849
at all last season. They gave up the I believe
1164
01:01:31.889 --> 01:01:34.309
it's the highest yards per carry that they gave up
1165
01:01:34.550 --> 01:01:38.809
across last season is against the Bills. So I think
1166
01:01:38.949 --> 01:01:41.409
in this game, you're going to have to lean a
1167
01:01:41.429 --> 01:01:43.190
little bit on the run game. And I think that's
1168
01:01:43.230 --> 01:01:46.320
been we talk a lot about what has happened with
1169
01:01:46.360 --> 01:01:50.829
the Bills and their offensive evolution. An underrated part of
1170
01:01:50.869 --> 01:01:55.010
that has been in 2023, they were top 10 in
1171
01:01:55.110 --> 01:02:00.730
neutral pass frequency. Last season, they were 18th. They've leaned
1172
01:02:00.849 --> 01:02:04.190
into the run game more. And that's not saying take
1173
01:02:04.210 --> 01:02:06.389
the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. That's not what
1174
01:02:06.409 --> 01:02:09.250
we're saying at all. But what it does is it
1175
01:02:09.329 --> 01:02:13.010
maximizes Josh Allen so he's not having to do everything
1176
01:02:13.550 --> 01:02:16.449
for this team. He's not having to be everything for
1177
01:02:16.469 --> 01:02:19.550
this team. You have a great offensive line. You have
1178
01:02:19.570 --> 01:02:22.659
a great running back. I believe it was actually a
1179
01:02:22.739 --> 01:02:25.599
quote in a story by Pete Prisco where Josh Allen
1180
01:02:25.639 --> 01:02:28.599
is like, if they're not stopping the run, just keep
1181
01:02:28.659 --> 01:02:29.460
handing the ball.
1182
01:02:29.500 --> 01:02:31.719
Yeah, because I think you quoted that as something of like,
1183
01:02:31.739 --> 01:02:33.840
you know, see, quarterbacks don't matter. Like we don't.
1184
01:02:33.739 --> 01:02:38.250
Exactly listen, run it until they stop it. Like that's
1185
01:02:38.309 --> 01:02:40.670
the that's the best part about the Bills and what
1186
01:02:40.690 --> 01:02:42.570
the Bills have been over the last couple of seasons.
1187
01:02:42.949 --> 01:02:45.659
they are now willing to run it until they stop it.
1188
01:02:45.719 --> 01:02:49.360
That is why I like Joe Brady. He knows if
1189
01:02:49.400 --> 01:02:53.289
there's something that works, keep running it until they stop it.
1190
01:02:53.469 --> 01:02:56.389
So I think if you're going to attack this Texas defense,
1191
01:02:56.469 --> 01:02:59.380
which again... Easier said than done because they just added
1192
01:02:59.400 --> 01:03:04.989
Kaden McDonald, who was the best run-stopping player in last
1193
01:03:05.030 --> 01:03:06.969
year's draft. So now you just go ahead and add
1194
01:03:07.050 --> 01:03:09.369
that to the defense. Good luck with that.
1195
01:03:09.650 --> 01:03:13.730
As a rotational guy, as like a second-string depth guy.
1196
01:03:13.750 --> 01:03:16.769
Yeah, he's their early-down guy. They can rotate in Sheldon
1197
01:03:16.809 --> 01:03:19.699
Rankins or Tommy Togiai or even Logan Hall. They can
1198
01:03:19.739 --> 01:03:25.199
just rotate those guys in. Like, cool. There are so
1199
01:03:25.239 --> 01:03:28.230
many teams in the NFL right now that cannot stop
1200
01:03:28.269 --> 01:03:31.130
the run, that decided Caden McDonald is the second-round pick.
1201
01:03:31.489 --> 01:03:35.269
And I'm just like, okay, man. Listen, I quote it
1202
01:03:35.309 --> 01:03:37.969
all the time. Everybody want to be a bodybuilder? Nobody
1203
01:03:38.010 --> 01:03:40.949
wants to lift heavy weight. Everybody wants to defend the
1204
01:03:40.989 --> 01:03:43.670
run out of light boxes? Nobody wants a nose tackle
1205
01:03:43.690 --> 01:03:46.130
that will actually let them do that. So now the
1206
01:03:46.170 --> 01:03:48.329
Texans have a guy that will actually let them do that.
1207
01:03:48.789 --> 01:03:50.570
But I think this game is going to be predicated
1208
01:03:50.610 --> 01:03:53.239
not only on Ty Johnson and James Cook in the
1209
01:03:53.300 --> 01:03:57.110
run game, but attacking these linebackers and trying to win
1210
01:03:57.300 --> 01:04:00.099
one-on-ones that we talked about at the top, like their
1211
01:04:00.139 --> 01:04:04.860
force multipliers, your force multiplier is going up against arguably
1212
01:04:04.880 --> 01:04:08.960
their weakest link. Hammer it until they stop it.
1213
01:04:08.980 --> 01:04:11.699
I cannot tell you how much I love that point
1214
01:04:11.889 --> 01:04:14.389
and how insightful I find it. And that's not just
1215
01:04:14.429 --> 01:04:17.889
because it ties into my final point as well. So
1216
01:04:18.030 --> 01:04:20.889
I titled this, where do the bills find success on offense?
1217
01:04:21.489 --> 01:04:24.219
And for me, it starts with, the running back piece.
1218
01:04:24.739 --> 01:04:27.260
So I've been, I've been studying a bunch of this
1219
01:04:27.280 --> 01:04:30.340
this off season, but you know, Joe Brady was with
1220
01:04:30.360 --> 01:04:34.280
the saints in 2017 and 2018 with Pete Carmichael, both
1221
01:04:34.320 --> 01:04:37.000
of them under Sean Payton. I think it's been, you know,
1222
01:04:37.039 --> 01:04:38.860
this has been regurgitated so much at this point. Now,
1223
01:04:38.920 --> 01:04:41.300
Pete Carmichael, the offensive coordinator with the bills, you know,
1224
01:04:41.360 --> 01:04:43.179
and it's like, okay, what does Pete Carmichael bring? Is
1225
01:04:43.219 --> 01:04:46.519
he just a steady hand to help Brady with the
1226
01:04:46.619 --> 01:04:49.760
offense and install stuff and day-to-day things? Because, you know,
1227
01:04:50.019 --> 01:04:51.820
he was the hand of the King with Sean Payton.
1228
01:04:51.889 --> 01:04:54.300
He knows how to do this role. it gives Brady
1229
01:04:54.360 --> 01:04:56.460
a vet who he trusts and allows him to find
1230
01:04:56.500 --> 01:04:58.320
his way as a head coach. And then it's like, okay,
1231
01:04:58.380 --> 01:05:00.920
is it that? And what else does Pete Carmichael bring
1232
01:05:00.940 --> 01:05:02.320
with him? And so for me, and I think a
1233
01:05:02.380 --> 01:05:04.889
lot of other folks, it's like, okay, maybe it's some
1234
01:05:04.929 --> 01:05:08.050
of that awesome Saints running back pass game that the
1235
01:05:08.110 --> 01:05:12.210
Saints have had for years. If anybody watches football regularly,
1236
01:05:12.809 --> 01:05:15.570
or if you've played fantasy football, I think you all know,
1237
01:05:15.590 --> 01:05:19.760
you know, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara
1238
01:05:19.840 --> 01:05:21.920
are And even like Mark Ingram and before that with
1239
01:05:21.940 --> 01:05:23.679
Sean Payton, it was like Reggie Bush and even Deuce
1240
01:05:23.699 --> 01:05:26.230
McAllister a little bit, like all these backs that caught
1241
01:05:26.269 --> 01:05:30.690
the football. And I had a ton of clips the
1242
01:05:30.730 --> 01:05:37.820
other day of stuff from the 2017 and 2018 season
1243
01:05:38.280 --> 01:05:41.199
from the Saints. And granted, Mark Ingram is a very
1244
01:05:41.219 --> 01:05:46.269
good player, former Heisman Trophy winner, Alvin Kamara, arguably the
1245
01:05:46.309 --> 01:05:48.969
best contact balance of any like running back ever and prime,
1246
01:05:49.010 --> 01:05:53.510
like rookie Alvin Kamara was an absolute monster, but the
1247
01:05:53.570 --> 01:05:56.389
way they're getting the running backs involved, like they're going
1248
01:05:56.469 --> 01:06:00.019
heavy and condensed and they're, you know, faking zone runs
1249
01:06:00.059 --> 01:06:02.739
and gap runs and still getting it to the running
1250
01:06:02.780 --> 01:06:05.340
backs out of the backfield and fooling the defense. They're
1251
01:06:05.360 --> 01:06:08.280
going with pony personnel and sending somebody across the formation
1252
01:06:08.320 --> 01:06:11.079
on a slide route, dumping it to Kamara, then faking
1253
01:06:11.099 --> 01:06:12.800
it and dumping it to Kamara and spitting it back
1254
01:06:12.840 --> 01:06:15.949
to Ingram. They're putting Alvin Kamara down. out wide is
1255
01:06:15.969 --> 01:06:18.880
the number one and sending them vertical against safeties. They're
1256
01:06:18.960 --> 01:06:21.880
motioning Camara into, you know, the number three and a
1257
01:06:21.940 --> 01:06:24.400
trips look, and then sending him on a wheel route
1258
01:06:24.780 --> 01:06:27.840
against linebackers and safety. And Camara is getting targeted like
1259
01:06:27.840 --> 01:06:31.630
20 air yards down the field. The whole point, their
1260
01:06:31.710 --> 01:06:36.570
running back pass game was diverse. And in 2017 and 2018,
1261
01:06:36.570 --> 01:06:39.789
the saints passes to their running backs. They were second
1262
01:06:40.190 --> 01:06:42.110
in total passes to running backs in those two years
1263
01:06:42.130 --> 01:06:45.710
with 337, they were third in yards per play. Fourth
1264
01:06:45.750 --> 01:06:48.849
in EPA per play. Eighth in success rate. First in
1265
01:06:48.869 --> 01:06:53.190
yards after catch. Second in explosive pass rate. Second in
1266
01:06:53.300 --> 01:06:57.699
first downs game. If ever there was a game, exactly
1267
01:06:57.719 --> 01:06:58.880
to your point, I'm going to touch on the run
1268
01:06:58.920 --> 01:07:02.059
game in a minute. If any time there was an
1269
01:07:02.159 --> 01:07:04.980
aspect to, hey, you know what? Is Pete Carmichael bringing
1270
01:07:05.000 --> 01:07:07.719
any of that Saints run game or running back pass
1271
01:07:07.739 --> 01:07:09.800
game stuff? Hey, is Joe Brady going to dip in
1272
01:07:09.860 --> 01:07:12.219
any of that LSU, like running back pass game stuff
1273
01:07:12.239 --> 01:07:14.860
that made everyone think Clyde Edwards Hilaire was a first-round pick?
1274
01:07:15.469 --> 01:07:18.510
This is the game to do it because, again, we
1275
01:07:18.530 --> 01:07:24.429
touched on it. Lassiter, sick. Stingley, sick. Petrie, sick. You
1276
01:07:24.449 --> 01:07:26.989
know what's a good matchup? Yeah. I'll take the running
1277
01:07:27.010 --> 01:07:30.590
backs against Henry Toto or even Al Shayer as a missile.
1278
01:07:30.880 --> 01:07:32.619
You might be able to get him, create some leverage
1279
01:07:32.659 --> 01:07:34.860
against him, win on a choice round against him, especially
1280
01:07:35.199 --> 01:07:39.039
if it's straight-up man coverage or... Like I mentioned earlier,
1281
01:07:39.559 --> 01:07:43.019
if you're getting these three-by-ones, the Texans are locking the
1282
01:07:43.059 --> 01:07:46.019
backside of the formation. That means they're locking the solo
1283
01:07:46.059 --> 01:07:50.059
wide receiver, but they're also locking that running back in one-on-one.
1284
01:07:50.199 --> 01:07:52.550
And if it's that weak side linebacker, that means it's
1285
01:07:52.610 --> 01:07:55.730
James Cook or Ty Johnson against Henry Toto more often
1286
01:07:55.750 --> 01:07:58.949
than not. Toto is a heat-seeking missile. He's got some
1287
01:07:59.030 --> 01:08:02.150
red-shell Mario Kart aspects to him. He will shoot the B.
1288
01:08:02.190 --> 01:08:04.170
He will shoot the A. He will blow some stuff up.
1289
01:08:04.750 --> 01:08:07.130
I will take James Cook and Ty Johnson in space
1290
01:08:07.170 --> 01:08:11.150
against him Every single time. Especially considering the other options
1291
01:08:11.269 --> 01:08:14.570
are testing Stingley and testing Lasseter and that whole other
1292
01:08:14.590 --> 01:08:17.149
crew of guys. I really do think this is a
1293
01:08:17.180 --> 01:08:21.819
game where the pass game has to funnel through Kincaid
1294
01:08:22.659 --> 01:08:25.500
in between the numbers and then the running backs. A
1295
01:08:25.539 --> 01:08:29.039
game where you're targeting James Cook six to eight times.
1296
01:08:29.640 --> 01:08:32.579
You're getting Ty Johnson either in pass pro where he's
1297
01:08:32.659 --> 01:08:35.220
legitimately good or yes, you're getting him out into the
1298
01:08:35.260 --> 01:08:38.619
route distribution and Ty Johnson's getting like three to five
1299
01:08:38.659 --> 01:08:41.930
or six, you know, targets in this game. Use the
1300
01:08:41.989 --> 01:08:44.609
running backs as your primary options. It could be check downs,
1301
01:08:44.930 --> 01:08:46.909
but I think it, give me some design run stuff
1302
01:08:46.949 --> 01:08:49.409
or design pass game stuff. Give me, we know that
1303
01:08:49.470 --> 01:08:52.170
space is going to be there. Choice routes. I don't
1304
01:08:52.189 --> 01:08:53.489
care if it's an angle route. I don't care if
1305
01:08:53.529 --> 01:08:55.300
you hit the flat. I don't care what it is.
1306
01:08:55.529 --> 01:08:57.770
You got a true one-on-one with a two-way go against
1307
01:08:57.850 --> 01:09:00.720
one of those backers, especially toe to toe. That should
1308
01:09:00.729 --> 01:09:04.220
be advantage bills. Take that. And then tying into the
1309
01:09:04.260 --> 01:09:08.359
run game piece, man, I, so overall the Texans run
1310
01:09:08.380 --> 01:09:11.699
defense last year, third in EPA per rush, third and
1311
01:09:11.739 --> 01:09:14.699
success rate, second and explosive runs allowed first and yards
1312
01:09:14.739 --> 01:09:17.699
per rush, second and yards before contacts tied for seventh
1313
01:09:17.739 --> 01:09:21.430
and yards after contact per rush. Second in EPA per
1314
01:09:21.449 --> 01:09:25.970
rush for light boxes. First in success rate allowed in
1315
01:09:26.029 --> 01:09:28.560
light boxes. And then someone might say, oh, but what
1316
01:09:28.579 --> 01:09:32.600
were they with DVOA? Second against the run in DVOA.
1317
01:09:33.680 --> 01:09:37.840
I tell you, bro, I filtered so many things. I
1318
01:09:37.840 --> 01:09:40.939
was like, okay, like, where are they weak? What do
1319
01:09:40.979 --> 01:09:45.069
they look like against 12 personnel, 13 personnel, 11, second down,
1320
01:09:45.329 --> 01:09:48.630
first down, third downs, this kind of run, that kind
1321
01:09:48.670 --> 01:09:54.010
of run. Nothing matters. Changing the filters does literally nothing.
1322
01:09:54.250 --> 01:09:59.149
Nothing changes meaningfully if you change personnel, box count, anything.
1323
01:09:59.170 --> 01:10:01.069
The only thing that changes is like, oh yeah, they
1324
01:10:01.109 --> 01:10:05.079
go from second to fifth or third to seventh. It's like, okay,
1325
01:10:05.100 --> 01:10:07.579
so they're still great at everything across the board. They
1326
01:10:07.659 --> 01:10:10.119
literally don't have a vulnerability in that aspect. But like
1327
01:10:10.140 --> 01:10:13.500
you alluded to, the Bills did find some success on
1328
01:10:13.520 --> 01:10:15.819
the ground against them last year. They did have four
1329
01:10:15.880 --> 01:10:19.380
explosive runs against them, which was third in week 12.
1330
01:10:19.380 --> 01:10:22.239
And their explosive run rate was fourth in the league
1331
01:10:22.579 --> 01:10:25.619
that week against the Texans. You nailed it with the
1332
01:10:25.659 --> 01:10:27.819
yards per rush. It was second in week 12. They
1333
01:10:27.890 --> 01:10:30.890
averaged six point yards of carry against the Texans. Granted,
1334
01:10:30.930 --> 01:10:33.869
a bunch of it was James Cook busted off that what,
1335
01:10:33.909 --> 01:10:38.329
like 45, 50 yard house call. Yeah. But they had
1336
01:10:38.350 --> 01:10:40.869
a positive EPA per rush, which doesn't really happen against
1337
01:10:40.890 --> 01:10:44.229
the Texans run defense. The success rate wasn't there, but
1338
01:10:44.310 --> 01:10:46.989
you had some explosives and that can be enough. I
1339
01:10:47.029 --> 01:10:49.069
don't think you're going to, you're not going to have
1340
01:10:49.630 --> 01:10:52.029
a strong success rate day running the ball against the
1341
01:10:52.069 --> 01:10:55.430
Texans defense. You're not going to hit 45, 50% rushing
1342
01:10:55.470 --> 01:10:57.489
success rate. You're going to have to bang your head
1343
01:10:57.510 --> 01:11:01.039
against the wall, one yards, two yards, three yards, but
1344
01:11:01.060 --> 01:11:02.880
then you might be able to pop a 15 yarder
1345
01:11:03.119 --> 01:11:05.579
or a 20 yarder. And if cook gets in space,
1346
01:11:05.680 --> 01:11:08.800
the leading rusher in the league last year, which it's
1347
01:11:08.840 --> 01:11:11.060
another annoying part of the Josh Allen discussion this whole
1348
01:11:11.119 --> 01:11:13.319
off season is I feel like we forget that the
1349
01:11:13.340 --> 01:11:15.260
bills run game is great. And James cook led the
1350
01:11:15.300 --> 01:11:17.399
league in rushing last year and has risen to the
1351
01:11:17.699 --> 01:11:20.210
status of like a top five at worst top seven
1352
01:11:20.590 --> 01:11:23.069
running back in football. But so much of it, to
1353
01:11:23.090 --> 01:11:26.029
your point comes down to those running backs, the run game,
1354
01:11:26.430 --> 01:11:28.949
obviously tied to them, but them in the past game,
1355
01:11:29.109 --> 01:11:31.899
it's got to start there. And then if you can
1356
01:11:31.920 --> 01:11:34.699
get that run game going again, let's lean into all
1357
01:11:34.720 --> 01:11:36.859
the things that all the hipsters like to talk about
1358
01:11:36.899 --> 01:11:40.270
now under center and, you know, heavy personnel and, an
1359
01:11:40.329 --> 01:11:42.550
under center play action, and we suck up the second
1360
01:11:42.609 --> 01:11:45.170
level and hit something in the intermediate that will all
1361
01:11:45.210 --> 01:11:47.899
work for Josh Allen and the bills. And if worst
1362
01:11:47.909 --> 01:11:50.560
case scenario, you send some dudes downfield off of some
1363
01:11:50.619 --> 01:11:53.819
under center play action, you've stretched the defense out. Hey, Josh,
1364
01:11:53.840 --> 01:11:55.699
you probably got some space, go run and make something
1365
01:11:55.720 --> 01:11:58.819
happen with your legs or run. Make sure you duck because, Oh,
1366
01:11:58.840 --> 01:12:01.579
you know, this, uh, Al Shayer will literally try and
1367
01:12:01.640 --> 01:12:04.699
spear your quarterback in the head. Um, that will happen. Uh,
1368
01:12:04.739 --> 01:12:10.479
hashtag Trevor Lawrence. Uh, yeah, I, it, Most games, most weeks,
1369
01:12:10.539 --> 01:12:11.939
the run game is going to matter a ton for
1370
01:12:11.960 --> 01:12:14.920
the Bills. But this game especially, and then the running backs,
1371
01:12:14.939 --> 01:12:17.470
like you said, and like I have highlighted in the past,
1372
01:12:18.510 --> 01:12:21.289
I think it's an actual potential weakness and an advantage spot,
1373
01:12:21.390 --> 01:12:27.189
even though the Texans were third in DVOA against running
1374
01:12:27.210 --> 01:12:30.350
backs last year. But again, that's just everything. They were
1375
01:12:30.449 --> 01:12:33.329
sixth in DVOA versus wide receiver ones last year. Second
1376
01:12:33.380 --> 01:12:36.859
versus tight ends. Eleventh versus wide receiver twos. Third versus
1377
01:12:36.899 --> 01:12:40.039
wide receiver threes. third verse running backs. There is no
1378
01:12:40.239 --> 01:12:43.229
true weakness, but there are some opportunities to poke and
1379
01:12:43.270 --> 01:12:48.149
prod and some areas that are better where, you know,
1380
01:12:48.250 --> 01:12:50.449
I'd rather be slapped in the face than punched in
1381
01:12:50.470 --> 01:12:52.729
the face or smashed in the face with a hammer. Like,
1382
01:12:52.750 --> 01:12:54.689
and it's still not great to get slapped, but it's
1383
01:12:54.720 --> 01:12:57.140
better than the alternative. And I think the bills could
1384
01:12:57.159 --> 01:13:00.479
potentially have some wins there. And I'm also interested to
1385
01:13:00.920 --> 01:13:03.340
know EJ speed this year. He's out. He was their
1386
01:13:03.380 --> 01:13:06.539
third linebacker last year. If you can force the Texans
1387
01:13:06.600 --> 01:13:09.760
out of nickel and into base, Who's the third linebacker?
1388
01:13:09.770 --> 01:13:11.020
Is it going to be Wade Wattaz, who had a
1389
01:13:11.039 --> 01:13:15.439
nice pick six this preseason? Clemson linebacker? Do you have
1390
01:13:15.460 --> 01:13:19.539
an advantage with Hawes and Knox and maybe Kincaid, maybe Latu?
1391
01:13:19.640 --> 01:13:22.800
I've even joked this comment here for tight ends. I've
1392
01:13:22.819 --> 01:13:26.039
made the serious comment of go 14 personnel and split
1393
01:13:26.100 --> 01:13:29.239
Dalton Kincaid out wide as your X receiver and then
1394
01:13:29.319 --> 01:13:32.649
use your other three tight ends attached to the surface
1395
01:13:32.689 --> 01:13:35.729
and just mash. But it starts there. I love that
1396
01:13:35.750 --> 01:13:37.109
you made that point because obviously I had a lot
1397
01:13:37.130 --> 01:13:38.159
of things to say about it.
1398
01:13:38.829 --> 01:13:40.970
And I think your point, when we talk about getting
1399
01:13:40.989 --> 01:13:43.310
the running backs into the passing game, getting them vertical,
1400
01:13:43.720 --> 01:13:45.760
I think it also ties back into one of the
1401
01:13:45.779 --> 01:13:49.220
most important parts of this game, which is Deion Dawkins
1402
01:13:49.500 --> 01:13:52.699
and Spencer Brown against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniel Hunter.
1403
01:13:53.260 --> 01:13:56.680
Because the Bills love going five out. That is their,
1404
01:13:56.880 --> 01:13:58.800
they want to try and get the running backs involved
1405
01:13:58.819 --> 01:14:01.060
in their passing game. That is part of why this
1406
01:14:01.119 --> 01:14:05.529
entire ecosystem works. But you can't really do that if
1407
01:14:05.670 --> 01:14:08.430
your tackles are getting their butts kicked.
1408
01:14:08.970 --> 01:14:11.510
Can't push the ball downfield. Can't push it downfield if
1409
01:14:11.529 --> 01:14:13.409
your O-line can't hold up and protect for three and
1410
01:14:13.430 --> 01:14:13.949
a half seconds.
1411
01:14:14.449 --> 01:14:17.550
Exactly. And so the offensive line has to be able
1412
01:14:17.590 --> 01:14:20.569
to at least get to a stalemate against those two.
1413
01:14:20.729 --> 01:14:23.659
If you can force this team, if you can force
1414
01:14:23.699 --> 01:14:28.100
the Texans to, if you can stay out of having
1415
01:14:28.159 --> 01:14:31.279
to leave your running back into protection, I think that's
1416
01:14:31.359 --> 01:14:35.300
where they can start to win, is if you can
1417
01:14:35.359 --> 01:14:37.810
get your running back out into the passing game. If
1418
01:14:37.850 --> 01:14:40.550
you can get there, you have a good shot. You
1419
01:14:40.569 --> 01:14:43.140
have a good chance of attacking this passing defense. But
1420
01:14:43.180 --> 01:14:45.939
if you have to constantly leave your running back into protection,
1421
01:14:46.979 --> 01:14:51.420
it gets weird because, again, where's the winner? Who's going
1422
01:14:51.460 --> 01:14:54.819
to win in this situation? There's really not much you
1423
01:14:54.880 --> 01:14:59.640
can do. So I'm curious on how the offensive line
1424
01:14:59.680 --> 01:15:03.699
and what Joe Brady does to sort of lessen the
1425
01:15:03.779 --> 01:15:07.119
worry for, like, You know, they do five out a lot.
1426
01:15:07.220 --> 01:15:10.439
If they're hot, it's off of Josh Allen. Josh Allen's
1427
01:15:10.479 --> 01:15:14.430
making up for any mistakes. But do you, I mean, yes,
1428
01:15:14.470 --> 01:15:16.970
Josh Allen is one of the five best players in football.
1429
01:15:17.470 --> 01:15:20.489
Do you want to take that risk against a team
1430
01:15:20.550 --> 01:15:24.430
that has been known and has beaten the crap out
1431
01:15:24.470 --> 01:15:28.529
of your tackles before and can do that? They can
1432
01:15:28.609 --> 01:15:33.409
turn this game into a basically like pass rush teach
1433
01:15:33.449 --> 01:15:36.510
tape game. Yeah. Do you want to let Josh Allen
1434
01:15:36.529 --> 01:15:40.649
sort of play that chaos game? Because I mean, if
1435
01:15:40.689 --> 01:15:43.329
you're looking for one way that you can attack this
1436
01:15:43.689 --> 01:15:46.609
Texans defense, again, there's not a lot of stuff that
1437
01:15:46.649 --> 01:15:50.010
they do poorly, but they did allow the most yards
1438
01:15:50.069 --> 01:15:51.970
per scramble in the NFL.
1439
01:15:52.369 --> 01:15:53.189
Oh, good pull.
1440
01:15:53.689 --> 01:15:57.779
Two yards per scramble. But I also say that and say,
1441
01:15:57.800 --> 01:16:01.960
there's also like, they gave up one 25 yard scramble
1442
01:16:02.079 --> 01:16:06.270
against the Broncos and outside of that, the most yards
1443
01:16:06.310 --> 01:16:09.970
they gave up be a scramble is 59 against the
1444
01:16:10.029 --> 01:16:12.970
chiefs and Patrick Holmes, where that was the only way
1445
01:16:13.229 --> 01:16:16.520
the chiefs could move the ball against the bills. Josh
1446
01:16:16.680 --> 01:16:23.359
Allen scrambled three times for 18 yards. That's just like,
1447
01:16:24.399 --> 01:16:28.560
that's not great. Like if you're living off of Josh Allen,
1448
01:16:29.020 --> 01:16:32.800
helping us be right, even when we're wrong, it's, it's
1449
01:16:32.859 --> 01:16:35.390
a tough world to live in because again, We talk
1450
01:16:35.430 --> 01:16:38.210
about the Jimmys and Joes, but this team, this Texas team,
1451
01:16:38.350 --> 01:16:41.829
closes space so quickly, which is why it's sort of
1452
01:16:41.909 --> 01:16:45.630
like– it's also why this is such a fun matchup
1453
01:16:46.029 --> 01:16:48.760
because the Bills passing game and the Bills offense is
1454
01:16:48.800 --> 01:16:51.720
designed to attack space intermediate, get yards after the catch.
1455
01:16:52.439 --> 01:16:55.220
But the Texans are fine with going like, if you
1456
01:16:55.260 --> 01:16:58.199
want to take those three-yard quick game, if you want
1457
01:16:58.260 --> 01:17:01.220
to take a crossing route for three yards, two yards, fine.
1458
01:17:01.680 --> 01:17:04.199
We'll let you have that. Because you're not going to
1459
01:17:04.229 --> 01:17:06.250
get anything past that. We're going to rally and we're
1460
01:17:06.270 --> 01:17:08.430
going to hit you hard. And the next time you
1461
01:17:08.449 --> 01:17:11.250
think about trying to run that crossing route, Jalen Petrie
1462
01:17:11.270 --> 01:17:12.390
is going to be right there and you got to
1463
01:17:12.409 --> 01:17:16.409
remember that. So I think that's such, again, another really
1464
01:17:16.489 --> 01:17:21.020
fun layer is can Josh Allen affect the game via scrambling?
1465
01:17:21.600 --> 01:17:23.960
And are you willing to go five out? Are you
1466
01:17:24.000 --> 01:17:26.760
willing to live with Deion Dawkins and Spencer Brown on
1467
01:17:26.800 --> 01:17:29.819
an island against Will Anderson Jr. and Daniil Hunter? Which
1468
01:17:30.359 --> 01:17:32.720
if it were me, if I were Joe Brady, I
1469
01:17:32.760 --> 01:17:36.600
wouldn't say like, honestly, you kind of have to. You
1470
01:17:36.640 --> 01:17:39.189
kind of have to live in that world. Your highest
1471
01:17:39.270 --> 01:17:42.689
paid players on the offensive side of the ball are
1472
01:17:42.729 --> 01:17:46.909
the quarterback, the running back, and your two tackles. This
1473
01:17:46.970 --> 01:17:48.710
is where the game is going to be won. This
1474
01:17:48.750 --> 01:17:50.949
is why you pay those players a lot of money.
1475
01:17:51.390 --> 01:17:53.350
So you kind of got to go five out. And
1476
01:17:53.409 --> 01:17:56.340
if those guys lose, it's kind of a tip your
1477
01:17:56.380 --> 01:17:59.720
cap to the defense because you threw your best shot.
1478
01:18:00.920 --> 01:18:03.739
I love that point of I love that scramble pull
1479
01:18:03.880 --> 01:18:06.039
and just that overall conversational point for you in general.
1480
01:18:06.079 --> 01:18:13.060
Like there is, there is a world where Josh Allen
1481
01:18:13.100 --> 01:18:17.560
goes super saying, and it's just a Josh Allen game.
1482
01:18:17.600 --> 01:18:20.229
And it's like, oh man, like he scrambled for, you know,
1483
01:18:20.289 --> 01:18:22.310
he ran for like 70 yards in this game and
1484
01:18:22.350 --> 01:18:24.710
threw for like two 80 or two 90 and made
1485
01:18:24.729 --> 01:18:26.310
a bunch of big plays with his legs in his arm.
1486
01:18:26.329 --> 01:18:29.329
And that kind of, that can be enough. It's just
1487
01:18:29.350 --> 01:18:31.970
such a hard world. when you have the rush that
1488
01:18:31.989 --> 01:18:34.800
the Texans have, how good they are from a rush
1489
01:18:34.840 --> 01:18:39.300
lane integrity standpoint, let alone the talent and the understanding
1490
01:18:39.319 --> 01:18:41.720
and the one-on-one capability and how they just fit and
1491
01:18:41.819 --> 01:18:45.869
funnel and they know. Especially now, I think the book,
1492
01:18:46.550 --> 01:18:47.949
the book, I don't know. I don't want to say
1493
01:18:47.970 --> 01:18:49.810
like is out on Josh, Josh Allen, but I think
1494
01:18:49.880 --> 01:18:52.739
teams know how to rush Josh Allen to make him
1495
01:18:52.819 --> 01:18:55.260
stay in the pocket. And they know like, if he
1496
01:18:55.300 --> 01:18:58.000
gets out to his right, we kind of die a
1497
01:18:58.039 --> 01:19:00.880
really painful death. And so let's keep them in. Let's
1498
01:19:00.920 --> 01:19:04.260
force them left. We'll hem him in this way. And
1499
01:19:04.340 --> 01:19:07.930
tying into that is knowing that, the bill is protection rules.
1500
01:19:07.989 --> 01:19:09.649
Like you said, like the bills want to get five
1501
01:19:09.689 --> 01:19:11.829
out into the route distribution, which means they're just leaving
1502
01:19:11.909 --> 01:19:15.380
five in. And we've seen, this is even going back
1503
01:19:15.420 --> 01:19:17.640
to 20. I'm always throwing off for like what year
1504
01:19:17.659 --> 01:19:22.680
it is going back to 2024, where the bills got
1505
01:19:22.840 --> 01:19:28.189
murked in Baltimore on that Sunday night. We've seen when
1506
01:19:28.210 --> 01:19:29.869
the bills get into games, when they get in the
1507
01:19:29.989 --> 01:19:33.189
third and known passing down in distances, their protection gets
1508
01:19:33.250 --> 01:19:36.909
gamed up. And the two biggest examples are, the Ravens
1509
01:19:37.010 --> 01:19:40.229
in 2024, that Monday night game against the Atlanta Falcons
1510
01:19:40.250 --> 01:19:43.409
last year, where the Falcons, the Bills, for whatever reason,
1511
01:19:43.810 --> 01:19:45.489
didn't want to run the ball until the second half.
1512
01:19:45.829 --> 01:19:48.270
And it kept being third and, you know, known passing
1513
01:19:48.289 --> 01:19:51.670
down in distance. And the Falcons were just generating three
1514
01:19:51.770 --> 01:19:56.029
runners and attacking lanes and picking guys. And Allen was
1515
01:19:56.100 --> 01:19:58.220
trying to figure out who was coming from where, and
1516
01:19:58.239 --> 01:20:00.859
he was trying to avoid this guy. But the pocket
1517
01:20:00.899 --> 01:20:04.619
is collapsing around him. The Texans can do that, but
1518
01:20:04.659 --> 01:20:06.560
they don't have to bring a game. They don't have
1519
01:20:06.600 --> 01:20:08.619
to bring five, as we've talked about. They'll just do
1520
01:20:08.659 --> 01:20:11.109
it with four. So if the pocket is collapsing around
1521
01:20:11.130 --> 01:20:14.510
you and the Texans still have numbers, it's such a
1522
01:20:14.550 --> 01:20:18.350
tough world, but there's still a chance. Week one, Josh
1523
01:20:18.449 --> 01:20:21.770
Allen is healthy and ready and raring to go. Maybe
1524
01:20:21.810 --> 01:20:23.869
he gives Will Anderson a stiff arm to the face
1525
01:20:23.949 --> 01:20:26.810
and is able to escape and get out. And maybe
1526
01:20:26.840 --> 01:20:29.319
because Spencer Brown is healthy and Deion Dawkins is healthy,
1527
01:20:29.359 --> 01:20:32.050
we're getting... that's such a fun aspect of this game
1528
01:20:32.090 --> 01:20:35.430
because it's week one. And in theory, everybody's like as
1529
01:20:35.470 --> 01:20:37.510
healthy as they're going to be kind of all year.
1530
01:20:38.210 --> 01:20:40.970
It's good on good. And it's like, Oh, you know, it's,
1531
01:20:41.510 --> 01:20:44.350
it's Anderson versus Brown, but Brown has one arm again.
1532
01:20:44.399 --> 01:20:46.359
It's like, Nope. Brown is kind of banged up, but
1533
01:20:46.380 --> 01:20:48.399
he should be fine. Like it's good on good. We're
1534
01:20:48.439 --> 01:20:51.479
not missing. The Texans are missing these three starters. The
1535
01:20:51.520 --> 01:20:54.020
bills are missing these three starters. It's like, well, whose
1536
01:20:54.079 --> 01:20:57.060
backups are better? No, you got ones on ones. You
1537
01:20:57.079 --> 01:21:02.560
got good on good. Bullets are live. I'm just, it's
1538
01:21:02.579 --> 01:21:06.000
so funny because the Bills defense versus Texans offense conversation,
1539
01:21:06.039 --> 01:21:11.279
I'm really just like, not not excited, but because like
1540
01:21:11.300 --> 01:21:13.520
the Bills defense wasn't good in areas last year. Like
1541
01:21:13.560 --> 01:21:15.859
if the Texans defense succeeds, I don't know if that
1542
01:21:15.899 --> 01:21:18.279
means the Texans offense has fixed their stuff or the
1543
01:21:18.319 --> 01:21:21.550
Bills defense is still problematic and vice versa. If the
1544
01:21:21.590 --> 01:21:23.689
Bills run defense is good, I don't know if that
1545
01:21:23.750 --> 01:21:25.810
means Jim Leonard fixed it or if it means the
1546
01:21:25.850 --> 01:21:29.010
Texans offense still sucks. So the other side is just
1547
01:21:29.109 --> 01:21:31.529
so intriguing because the Bills are an easy top five
1548
01:21:31.630 --> 01:21:35.289
unit on offense. The Texans are arguably the best defense
1549
01:21:35.329 --> 01:21:38.029
in football. At worst, number two. And so that side
1550
01:21:38.069 --> 01:21:42.270
is just good on good. Premium positions. Kind of some scheme,
1551
01:21:42.340 --> 01:21:43.960
but kind of you know what you're going to get.
1552
01:21:44.079 --> 01:21:45.779
You know, it's funny, too, even talking about the Texans'
1553
01:21:45.800 --> 01:21:49.060
coverage and how they run what they run. The Bills'
1554
01:21:49.140 --> 01:21:50.859
offense is kind of the same. Like, hey, man, you're
1555
01:21:50.880 --> 01:21:52.640
going to get duo and you're going to get mid-zone weak.
1556
01:21:52.699 --> 01:21:54.560
We run it from pretty much the same personnel and
1557
01:21:54.579 --> 01:21:57.439
the same alignment. Try and stop it. And just how
1558
01:21:57.449 --> 01:21:59.619
the Texans are like, we run cover three and cover
1559
01:21:59.720 --> 01:22:02.260
one in quarters. And then we rush four, try and
1560
01:22:02.279 --> 01:22:04.500
beat our guys. And the Bills are kind of similar.
1561
01:22:04.579 --> 01:22:09.319
And yeah, who are physicals? Who can mash who? Man,
1562
01:22:09.699 --> 01:22:11.560
I can't believe this is a one o'clock game in
1563
01:22:11.600 --> 01:22:15.500
week one. I really, like, I mean, I also.
1564
01:22:15.439 --> 01:22:18.340
Think- This is a playoff game. Right. And aren't we
1565
01:22:18.359 --> 01:22:20.239
past the- In the first game of the season. Right.
1566
01:22:20.579 --> 01:22:22.720
At one o'clock, first game of the season. And aren't
1567
01:22:22.739 --> 01:22:25.930
we past the point where Do we have to keep
1568
01:22:25.949 --> 01:22:28.710
giving the NFC East like the Sunday night opener like
1569
01:22:28.750 --> 01:22:31.750
year after year? We don't need to see Cowboys-Giants on
1570
01:22:31.850 --> 01:22:34.449
Sunday night in week one. We don't. And I think
1571
01:22:34.479 --> 01:22:36.060
the Cowboys will be good. I don't think the Giants
1572
01:22:36.079 --> 01:22:37.399
are going to be. We don't need to see that.
1573
01:22:38.880 --> 01:22:40.600
It just feels like they're doing this one a disservice.
1574
01:22:41.199 --> 01:22:44.600
A Sunday 1 o'clock game for Texans-Bills, I just feel
1575
01:22:44.619 --> 01:22:46.239
like it's so much bigger than that. Although I do
1576
01:22:46.310 --> 01:22:49.909
love the ambiance and the atmosphere of a good Sunday
1577
01:22:49.909 --> 01:22:52.369
1 o'clock game. But this one needs to be the
1578
01:22:52.390 --> 01:22:55.140
whole nation watching for both teams and what it looks
1579
01:22:55.149 --> 01:22:56.180
like on both sides of the ball.
1580
01:22:56.810 --> 01:23:02.619
This one feels like it has the most ramifications moving forward. Like,
1581
01:23:02.659 --> 01:23:05.460
I know there's a lot of divisional games. Like, there's
1582
01:23:05.500 --> 01:23:07.859
a lot of, like, I mean, the Chiefs are playing
1583
01:23:07.880 --> 01:23:08.479
the Broncos.
1584
01:23:08.699 --> 01:23:13.239
Yeah, maybe Chiefs-Broncos, maybe Rams-Niners. But that's also in Australia,
1585
01:23:13.279 --> 01:23:14.579
so I'm, like, throwing that out the window.
1586
01:23:15.239 --> 01:23:20.739
But when it comes to championship pecking order, And establishing
1587
01:23:20.880 --> 01:23:23.119
who is, I hate to say it this early, but
1588
01:23:23.180 --> 01:23:27.090
who's real and who's not. Like, this is a big,
1589
01:23:27.550 --> 01:23:30.829
big test early for Jim Leonard. It's a big test
1590
01:23:30.850 --> 01:23:34.689
for Joe Brady and how Joe Brady now, again, very
1591
01:23:34.829 --> 01:23:38.140
underrated small point, but how Joe Brady manages keeping the
1592
01:23:38.260 --> 01:23:41.880
offense afloat while also managing a game as a head coach. Like,
1593
01:23:42.199 --> 01:23:44.720
this is hypothetically going to be a close game. We're
1594
01:23:44.739 --> 01:23:46.640
going to find out who Joe Brady is as a
1595
01:23:46.680 --> 01:23:49.369
head coach for the first time. So that's going to
1596
01:23:49.409 --> 01:23:51.329
be another interesting point. I do want to go back
1597
01:23:51.369 --> 01:23:54.720
to the five out real quick because I think the
1598
01:23:54.760 --> 01:23:58.779
way the Texans attack protections is so fun because you
1599
01:23:58.800 --> 01:24:01.979
have two guys who win in one, one B one situations,
1600
01:24:02.640 --> 01:24:05.180
but you would never guess that will Anderson jr. Is
1601
01:24:05.220 --> 01:24:09.539
the power player. Like the Neil Hunter is the finesse guy. Yeah.
1602
01:24:09.800 --> 01:24:13.100
He is the, the funniest, the coolest thing about the
1603
01:24:13.119 --> 01:24:15.020
Neil Hunter. I think he's the most unique pass rusher
1604
01:24:15.039 --> 01:24:19.609
we've ever seen a thousand percent because he's he's built
1605
01:24:19.630 --> 01:24:24.100
like an Avenger. But he also, like, he moves like
1606
01:24:24.119 --> 01:24:27.720
a guy that's much smaller. Like, he'll pull out, like,
1607
01:24:27.899 --> 01:24:30.859
double spins. I think there's a move that he had
1608
01:24:31.239 --> 01:24:36.739
in 2024 against Panay Sewell where he, like, jab steps
1609
01:24:37.060 --> 01:24:40.920
out jab steps in and spins back out yes i'm
1610
01:24:40.939 --> 01:24:44.270
like a dude who's 6'6 270 should not be.
1611
01:24:44.149 --> 01:24:46.890
Able he like he like euro steps him and then
1612
01:24:47.069 --> 01:24:49.829
spins and he just it's just insane and then also
1613
01:24:49.850 --> 01:24:52.930
pull off the fake spin and like yeah he shouldn't
1614
01:24:52.949 --> 01:24:55.729
be able to move like that like a pterodactyl shouldn't
1615
01:24:55.789 --> 01:24:57.329
move like that on the ground.
1616
01:24:57.689 --> 01:25:00.149
So the way that they attack the protections is will
1617
01:25:00.220 --> 01:25:02.560
anderson jr rushes from the low side he wins with
1618
01:25:02.600 --> 01:25:06.109
power he's going through and neil hunter is comes from
1619
01:25:06.329 --> 01:25:09.729
the high side, around the shoulder. So if you're going
1620
01:25:09.770 --> 01:25:13.609
to find, again, with Josh Allen, keep him from going right.
1621
01:25:14.699 --> 01:25:17.340
The way maybe you can do that is you have
1622
01:25:17.399 --> 01:25:20.600
Will Anderson Jr. crush the pocket from the right. And
1623
01:25:20.659 --> 01:25:24.340
if Josh Allen's going to scramble right, like, Daniil Hunter
1624
01:25:24.420 --> 01:25:28.319
is going to go flying around the edge. And that's how, like,
1625
01:25:28.819 --> 01:25:31.149
with Daniil Hunter, some of the metrics that you mentioned,
1626
01:25:31.489 --> 01:25:34.789
Daniil Hunter is not the best or top 10 in
1627
01:25:34.869 --> 01:25:38.159
pressure rate. But when he does get there, it's a sack.
1628
01:25:38.800 --> 01:25:41.920
Like that's the thing where he's going to win. He's
1629
01:25:41.939 --> 01:25:45.159
going to finish plays. William Harrison Jr. is incredible. He
1630
01:25:45.199 --> 01:25:50.060
finishes plays and creates. But Daniil Hunter is sort of
1631
01:25:50.119 --> 01:25:54.600
their finisher. He is there. If he gets close, he's
1632
01:25:54.680 --> 01:25:57.119
getting to the ball or getting to the quarterback. So
1633
01:25:57.659 --> 01:26:01.779
how Deion Dawkins goes about attacking a guy like Daniil
1634
01:26:01.819 --> 01:26:05.199
Hunter and how Spencer Brown– Spencer Brown and Will Anderson Jr.
1635
01:26:05.239 --> 01:26:08.619
feels like a real fun, like, who's going to headbutt
1636
01:26:08.640 --> 01:26:10.539
each other? Who's going to be the last one to
1637
01:26:10.579 --> 01:26:15.319
win the headbutt matchup? I do wonder with Deion Dawkins
1638
01:26:15.359 --> 01:26:18.260
versus Daniil Hunter, who's going to win that one? Because
1639
01:26:18.319 --> 01:26:22.350
both are very unique guys at their positions. How he
1640
01:26:22.390 --> 01:26:25.470
goes about blocking Daniil Hunter is going to be really fun.
1641
01:26:26.970 --> 01:26:31.130
I love that point. And I started thinking, like, I
1642
01:26:31.149 --> 01:26:35.210
feel like Spencer Brown versus Will Anderson is, like, 2017
1643
01:26:35.930 --> 01:26:40.829
New Japan, like, Shibata versus Ishii. Like, just... These dudes
1644
01:26:40.850 --> 01:26:41.810
are gonna just get beat the hell out of each
1645
01:26:41.850 --> 01:26:44.149
other for, like, 10 minutes, and it's just gonna be
1646
01:26:44.170 --> 01:26:46.989
a sprint of physicality. I also, too, every time I
1647
01:26:47.010 --> 01:26:49.369
think of Will Anderson, I think back to the, like,
1648
01:26:50.069 --> 01:26:53.229
draft fatigue that year, and people like, you know, actually...
1649
01:26:53.800 --> 01:26:57.659
Tyree Wilson is probably a higher like ceiling guy. And
1650
01:26:57.680 --> 01:27:00.640
it was like, all Will Henderson does is speed to power.
1651
01:27:00.699 --> 01:27:03.489
Like that can't work. And then he's just been running
1652
01:27:03.529 --> 01:27:06.689
through dude's faces ever since. And then I remember seeing
1653
01:27:06.729 --> 01:27:09.970
some clips early in Texans camp where he was pulling
1654
01:27:10.069 --> 01:27:13.710
off like Daniil Hunter moves where he was like Euro
1655
01:27:13.789 --> 01:27:16.109
stepping and using his feet more. And it was like,
1656
01:27:17.189 --> 01:27:19.939
that's like the final infinity stone for the gauntlet. Like
1657
01:27:19.960 --> 01:27:22.159
if he starts doing that stuff on top of just
1658
01:27:22.260 --> 01:27:26.029
running through dude's faces and Oh man. And that's, I, I,
1659
01:27:26.789 --> 01:27:28.949
I just love that point from you. Like, because Brown
1660
01:27:28.989 --> 01:27:30.270
and Brown and Anderson.
1661
01:27:30.310 --> 01:27:30.409
Yeah.
1662
01:27:30.449 --> 01:27:31.750
I just feel like it's two dudes are going to
1663
01:27:31.770 --> 01:27:33.250
beat the hell out of each other. And then Dawkins
1664
01:27:33.289 --> 01:27:36.409
and Hunter is more like not in a soft way,
1665
01:27:36.489 --> 01:27:38.829
but the two finesse kind of guys and who's going
1666
01:27:38.850 --> 01:27:40.970
to beat who with their feet and their hand usage
1667
01:27:41.270 --> 01:27:42.090
and who wins that.
1668
01:27:42.689 --> 01:27:45.949
And it feels like watching like a real, like high
1669
01:27:45.989 --> 01:27:48.090
level Taekwondo match. Yeah.
1670
01:27:48.609 --> 01:27:49.850
Yeah.
1671
01:27:49.899 --> 01:27:53.840
A whole lot of like real, like be water. type
1672
01:27:53.899 --> 01:27:58.000
movements from both guys, whereas Spencer Brown and Will Anderson Jr.
1673
01:27:58.140 --> 01:28:00.800
are going to try and kick each other's butt for
1674
01:28:00.800 --> 01:28:04.930
60 minutes. And where Clowney comes into all this, because, oh, yeah,
1675
01:28:05.189 --> 01:28:08.270
they have Jadavia and Clowney and Logan Hall. I do wonder,
1676
01:28:08.609 --> 01:28:11.649
do they lean more into stunts and pass rush games?
1677
01:28:12.510 --> 01:28:17.600
Because you're fine with Deion Dawkins versus Daniel Hunter and
1678
01:28:17.619 --> 01:28:20.760
Spencer Brown versus Will Anderson Jr., I'm a lot less
1679
01:28:20.840 --> 01:28:25.800
fine with Alec Anderson versus Daniel Hunter and Osiris Torrance
1680
01:28:25.899 --> 01:28:28.460
against Will Anderson Jr. I'm a lot, that's a lot
1681
01:28:28.600 --> 01:28:33.069
less fun. And having Jadavion Clowney as he is one
1682
01:28:33.109 --> 01:28:38.029
of the perfect just spinners and thrashers in football because he,
1683
01:28:38.949 --> 01:28:41.449
for the longest, he deserves. not have bend. He's not
1684
01:28:41.489 --> 01:28:44.340
a bendy player. But what he is, is he's going
1685
01:28:44.359 --> 01:28:48.739
to earhole somebody. And that's how he wins. He won
1686
01:28:48.819 --> 01:28:53.479
with crossing guys' faces and de-cleating a guard and freeing
1687
01:28:53.560 --> 01:28:56.500
up somebody in a pass rush situation to come loop
1688
01:28:56.539 --> 01:28:59.550
around him. And that, again, goes to the Josh Allen
1689
01:28:59.569 --> 01:29:03.489
scramble right. One of the best ways to defend scramblers
1690
01:29:03.890 --> 01:29:08.750
without having to devote blitzers or spies is you use stunts.
1691
01:29:09.350 --> 01:29:11.789
And if you have an athletic defensive front, you can
1692
01:29:11.829 --> 01:29:14.390
have a guy like Clowney or Will Anderson Jr. line
1693
01:29:14.470 --> 01:29:18.720
up on the inside and earhole a guard. And that way,
1694
01:29:18.779 --> 01:29:21.640
if Josh Allen and, say, Daniel Hunter wins off the
1695
01:29:21.680 --> 01:29:25.439
left side and Josh Allen's sprinting right, Anderson or Clowney
1696
01:29:25.500 --> 01:29:27.859
can stunt back over and they kind of get a
1697
01:29:27.970 --> 01:29:32.229
free contain run. It's a very soft rush instead of like,
1698
01:29:32.250 --> 01:29:34.470
we're using this stunt not to get a sack, but
1699
01:29:34.489 --> 01:29:36.109
we're using a stunt to keep them in the pocket.
1700
01:29:36.810 --> 01:29:40.350
So I'm curious again, the protections and it goes back
1701
01:29:40.409 --> 01:29:44.159
to the five out and the five O's the communication
1702
01:29:44.420 --> 01:29:46.800
and the biggest thing I, we have been going so
1703
01:29:46.840 --> 01:29:49.739
long and I forgot to mention this until now. we
1704
01:29:49.779 --> 01:29:51.659
are going to find out how much Aaron Cromer meant
1705
01:29:51.699 --> 01:29:52.789
to this offense.
1706
01:29:52.909 --> 01:29:53.890
Great call. Yeah.
1707
01:29:53.930 --> 01:29:56.609
Because this is going to be the game where if
1708
01:29:56.649 --> 01:29:58.430
you're going to five, Oh, if you're going to five
1709
01:29:58.550 --> 01:30:02.569
out it, you gotta be communicating. And the communication aspect
1710
01:30:02.689 --> 01:30:05.560
upfront is one of the things I'm a little worried
1711
01:30:05.579 --> 01:30:08.699
about for the bills this season, just because losing Cromer
1712
01:30:09.119 --> 01:30:12.020
is such a big piece of that. Yeah.
1713
01:30:12.039 --> 01:30:14.420
That's a great call. We did a disservice to Cromer
1714
01:30:14.460 --> 01:30:15.279
by waiting this long.
1715
01:30:15.590 --> 01:30:15.829
Yeah.
1716
01:30:15.869 --> 01:30:18.960
To mention him in it. And it, You know, Brown
1717
01:30:18.979 --> 01:30:22.300
and Torrance have been, you know, they've been susceptible to
1718
01:30:22.359 --> 01:30:28.420
two-man games before. You've got Alec Anderson. Yeah, do they just, like,
1719
01:30:28.460 --> 01:30:30.510
kind of overload that side? Do they just put, like,
1720
01:30:30.699 --> 01:30:33.930
Clowney and Hunter on the offense's left and they're just like, well,
1721
01:30:34.430 --> 01:30:36.109
you know, are you going to send McGovern to that
1722
01:30:36.149 --> 01:30:38.869
side and help out? Okay, no, then we got Alec
1723
01:30:38.949 --> 01:30:40.890
Anderson one-on-one. We're going to see if he's ready for
1724
01:30:40.930 --> 01:30:43.329
pass pro. And then if you do start to slide McGovern,
1725
01:30:44.329 --> 01:30:47.170
Is it true, you know, man-on-man on that right side?
1726
01:30:47.189 --> 01:30:49.670
Because then now you're susceptible to games with Rankins and
1727
01:30:49.729 --> 01:30:52.130
Anderson or whoever's on that side with Anderson, Logan Hall,
1728
01:30:52.170 --> 01:30:55.640
whatever you want to do. Yeah, so I love that point.
1729
01:30:55.659 --> 01:30:59.460
I love the Cromer point. You know, I don't think
1730
01:30:59.500 --> 01:31:02.779
we can sing Cromer's praises enough for what he did
1731
01:31:02.819 --> 01:31:05.420
for this Bills offensive line. One of the best offensive
1732
01:31:05.439 --> 01:31:07.680
line coaches in football, one of the best assistant coaches
1733
01:31:07.699 --> 01:31:10.949
in all of football took this Bills O-line line raised
1734
01:31:11.229 --> 01:31:14.079
the floors and ceilings of the group collectively but also
1735
01:31:14.220 --> 01:31:17.159
the each individual players like the guy is the epitome
1736
01:31:17.659 --> 01:31:21.659
of a teacher he teaches you based on who and
1737
01:31:21.739 --> 01:31:24.699
what you are he doesn't have some blanket technique well
1738
01:31:24.720 --> 01:31:27.060
everybody has to do it this way he understands oh
1739
01:31:27.100 --> 01:31:30.220
you know you're six foot six and 310 and you're
1740
01:31:30.380 --> 01:31:33.520
you know 6'2 and 320 your body types are different
1741
01:31:33.560 --> 01:31:36.140
you move differently you have different traits I got to
1742
01:31:36.199 --> 01:31:39.529
teach player a differently than player b and He was
1743
01:31:39.670 --> 01:31:43.350
so good at that. And you had such a stabilizing
1744
01:31:43.510 --> 01:31:47.130
force in that offensive line room. Not to mention, he
1745
01:31:47.149 --> 01:31:50.100
was the game day run caller in conjunction with Joe Brady,
1746
01:31:50.119 --> 01:31:52.220
which is a huge piece. You know, him being the
1747
01:31:52.239 --> 01:31:55.399
guy who called that stuff. Yeah, we're going to find out, like,
1748
01:31:55.520 --> 01:31:58.880
is Pat Meyer coming over from Pittsburgh? Is that enough?
1749
01:31:58.960 --> 01:32:01.789
You know, is Austin Goon staying on with the Bills?
1750
01:32:01.829 --> 01:32:03.750
He was kind of Cromer's right hand for the past
1751
01:32:03.789 --> 01:32:06.470
couple years as he learned enough to kind of you know,
1752
01:32:06.489 --> 01:32:09.069
stem the loss a little bit and stem that tide.
1753
01:32:09.149 --> 01:32:13.930
And yeah, there's, you know, Cromer had such a, his
1754
01:32:14.010 --> 01:32:17.069
fingerprints were all over this offense from the offensive line
1755
01:32:17.470 --> 01:32:20.609
to the run game, to the protections, to the development,
1756
01:32:20.649 --> 01:32:24.989
to the tight ends and their improvement in blocking and attaching. And,
1757
01:32:25.340 --> 01:32:27.260
you know, in conjunction with Rob Boris, the Bill's tight
1758
01:32:27.279 --> 01:32:31.949
ends coach, who's still there. Yeah, man, it's a, That's
1759
01:32:31.970 --> 01:32:33.409
such a huge piece. The big thing for me, too,
1760
01:32:33.449 --> 01:32:35.430
is always that run game aspect. Like, the best thing
1761
01:32:35.470 --> 01:32:38.270
about the Bills offense, besides Josh Allen, for the past
1762
01:32:38.289 --> 01:32:40.090
several years has been the run game. And the fact
1763
01:32:40.109 --> 01:32:42.069
that Aaron Cromer is the guy who called the run
1764
01:32:42.109 --> 01:32:44.920
game is a huge thing. Because if you're hanging your
1765
01:32:44.960 --> 01:32:46.300
hat on something from last year, it's like, oh, the
1766
01:32:46.340 --> 01:32:50.060
run game. And it's like, Joe Brady, it's like, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah,
1767
01:32:50.100 --> 01:32:52.779
that run game was Aaron Cromer. And not only that,
1768
01:32:53.380 --> 01:32:58.119
everything else for the offensive line, oh, yeah, it's, this
1769
01:32:58.149 --> 01:33:00.850
could be a game where if things go sideways for you,
1770
01:33:01.579 --> 01:33:04.470
if you're the bills, it's like, Oh, like, you know,
1771
01:33:04.489 --> 01:33:06.550
if things go sideways for the Texans, it's more like
1772
01:33:07.649 --> 01:33:10.109
CJ Stroud maybe does suck. And this is a problem
1773
01:33:10.170 --> 01:33:12.329
at quarterback. And is this offense going to hold them back?
1774
01:33:12.470 --> 01:33:15.930
If things go sideways for the bills, it's like, they
1775
01:33:16.069 --> 01:33:18.140
shouldn't have hired the head coach they hired. And the
1776
01:33:18.199 --> 01:33:19.899
offensive line is going to be a problem. And Aaron
1777
01:33:19.920 --> 01:33:22.439
Cromer being gone as a problem. And the tickets are
1778
01:33:22.460 --> 01:33:24.800
too expensive. And the stadium has bad sight lines and
1779
01:33:24.840 --> 01:33:26.899
all the, everything just like compiles and it all just
1780
01:33:26.920 --> 01:33:27.960
gets like bad out of nowhere.
1781
01:33:29.020 --> 01:33:30.819
We're going to get some real, like, you know how
1782
01:33:30.859 --> 01:33:32.939
they have in Jerry world. We're going to, Oh, it's
1783
01:33:33.000 --> 01:33:35.539
the window in Jerry world. That's why everybody messes up
1784
01:33:35.579 --> 01:33:38.939
for the Cowboys. Bring it some real unhinged, like a
1785
01:33:39.020 --> 01:33:40.159
new stadium theories.
1786
01:33:40.529 --> 01:33:41.289
Oh, a thousand percent.
1787
01:33:41.310 --> 01:33:41.510
Yeah.
1788
01:33:41.550 --> 01:33:43.170
It's going to come out of the woodwork. It's going to,
1789
01:33:43.310 --> 01:33:46.609
it's going to reach like meme level jokes that'll last
1790
01:33:46.649 --> 01:33:48.829
for years. If things go sideways for the bills this
1791
01:33:48.869 --> 01:33:50.449
year and the stadium and everything.
1792
01:33:50.510 --> 01:33:51.329
And yeah.
1793
01:33:51.350 --> 01:33:53.829
And, uh, but man, they, those are a good team.
1794
01:33:53.930 --> 01:33:55.689
The Texans are a good team. Both of these teams
1795
01:33:55.710 --> 01:34:01.340
see themselves as Superbowl contenders and, definite like AFC potential representatives.
1796
01:34:01.359 --> 01:34:03.579
And they're going to dance in week one. And we're
1797
01:34:03.600 --> 01:34:06.819
going to find out what happens. JP, anything else that
1798
01:34:06.840 --> 01:34:10.279
you want to mention, say about this game? Anything you
1799
01:34:10.300 --> 01:34:13.430
got left in the chamber at all in any way?
1800
01:34:13.470 --> 01:34:17.250
I'll keep it brief because this is one that I
1801
01:34:17.289 --> 01:34:20.810
have gotten from you. It's the game script. If the
1802
01:34:20.890 --> 01:34:24.149
Bills stay ahead of the flow, if you can stay
1803
01:34:24.210 --> 01:34:26.409
ahead and lean a little bit on the run game,
1804
01:34:26.899 --> 01:34:31.359
and force the Texans to actually play shotgun drop-back offense,
1805
01:34:32.399 --> 01:34:35.010
you can turn this into a runaway game. You just
1806
01:34:35.050 --> 01:34:37.149
can't because I don't think the Texans are there yet
1807
01:34:37.210 --> 01:34:41.510
personnel-wise or in execution. I don't think they're going to
1808
01:34:41.550 --> 01:34:45.329
be able to play shootouts. But if you can't move
1809
01:34:45.350 --> 01:34:47.729
the ball and the Texans get into a situation where
1810
01:34:47.789 --> 01:34:50.899
they go up early and you really start to get
1811
01:34:50.960 --> 01:34:53.899
those pass rushers firing off the ball, like they– They
1812
01:34:53.920 --> 01:34:55.859
play the pass on the way to the run, which
1813
01:34:55.920 --> 01:34:57.819
makes the fact that they're so good against the run
1814
01:34:57.859 --> 01:35:01.470
not make sense because that shouldn't work. But if they
1815
01:35:01.510 --> 01:35:03.369
could just play the pass on the way to the pass,
1816
01:35:03.949 --> 01:35:08.069
that just makes those guys even faster and even more dangerous.
1817
01:35:09.069 --> 01:35:12.109
Oh, I love that point. Yeah, it's always like such
1818
01:35:12.149 --> 01:35:14.039
a given for me that I don't even mention it anymore.
1819
01:35:14.779 --> 01:35:16.779
And yeah, I forget it's in my blue sky handle,
1820
01:35:16.819 --> 01:35:19.340
like the game script enthusiast aspect. I need to actually
1821
01:35:19.380 --> 01:35:21.210
change that on my Twitter one too because it's such a,
1822
01:35:22.050 --> 01:35:24.069
it matters so much in everything, like not just for
1823
01:35:24.090 --> 01:35:27.510
the bills, but every single game, like game script is the,
1824
01:35:27.609 --> 01:35:30.550
the first thing, the first time game script really got
1825
01:35:30.609 --> 01:35:34.640
home to me was the Peyton Manning Colts because their
1826
01:35:34.680 --> 01:35:38.060
defense usually was bad, but they had Freeney and Mathis
1827
01:35:38.140 --> 01:35:40.119
and it'd be like, well, they put up so many
1828
01:35:40.180 --> 01:35:42.880
points offensively. You have to throw the ball to stay
1829
01:35:42.899 --> 01:35:46.310
in contention. And then Freeney and Mathis were like, we,
1830
01:35:46.350 --> 01:35:48.069
you have to throw the ball to stay in contention.
1831
01:35:48.210 --> 01:35:49.890
We're pinning our ears back. Here we go. And it
1832
01:35:49.930 --> 01:35:52.600
was like, man, they don't have anything else on this defense.
1833
01:35:52.649 --> 01:35:54.060
And it was like, well, they don't need to because
1834
01:35:54.079 --> 01:35:55.800
they're already up 21 to three and you have to
1835
01:35:55.840 --> 01:35:57.880
pass the ball. And here comes the game script. And
1836
01:35:58.500 --> 01:36:02.880
these two teams, especially, yeah, like right for the bills too.
1837
01:36:02.899 --> 01:36:04.720
If the bills can get up and all of a sudden, yeah,
1838
01:36:04.760 --> 01:36:06.960
the Texans have to throw the ball. You're playing into
1839
01:36:07.000 --> 01:36:08.939
Jim Leonard's hands and you're playing into the strength of
1840
01:36:08.960 --> 01:36:12.989
the bills defense. And then vice versa. If, if the
1841
01:36:13.050 --> 01:36:15.289
Texans can like run the ball and can kind of
1842
01:36:15.310 --> 01:36:17.289
control things a little bit and if, or if they
1843
01:36:17.310 --> 01:36:19.149
get up and then the bills are like, Oh, we
1844
01:36:19.170 --> 01:36:21.470
have to pass the ball. Now you're playing, you're siloing
1845
01:36:21.489 --> 01:36:24.850
yourself against arguably the best defensive football, man.
1846
01:36:25.109 --> 01:36:25.310
Yeah.
1847
01:36:25.350 --> 01:36:28.710
That's a, that's a great point. That's a great point. JP,
1848
01:36:28.770 --> 01:36:32.810
you are sincerely one of my favorite guests. And next
1849
01:36:32.829 --> 01:36:34.529
time I have you on, I'm literally going to count
1850
01:36:34.590 --> 01:36:37.220
how many times you've been on the show. Cause I'm
1851
01:36:37.270 --> 01:36:41.159
pretty sure. I think we're at maybe like eight now.
1852
01:36:41.770 --> 01:36:44.579
like we're, we're getting closer to, we're closer to double
1853
01:36:44.619 --> 01:36:50.220
digits than we are to five and your knowledge, your personality, um,
1854
01:36:51.140 --> 01:36:54.140
how entertaining you are while combining that with your knowledge
1855
01:36:54.159 --> 01:36:56.539
of the game. Um, and just how kind you are
1856
01:36:56.649 --> 01:36:58.729
as a person. Like I, you're just, you're sincerely one
1857
01:36:58.750 --> 01:37:01.149
of my favorite people to engage with on social and
1858
01:37:01.170 --> 01:37:04.449
in this space and have on the show. So again,
1859
01:37:04.470 --> 01:37:08.210
I appreciate you taking the time. I always enjoy these
1860
01:37:08.229 --> 01:37:11.539
episodes a ton. Um, The floor is yours. Tell everybody,
1861
01:37:11.560 --> 01:37:13.659
in case they don't know who you are, where they
1862
01:37:13.680 --> 01:37:16.260
can find your work, what you do, anything and everything.
1863
01:37:16.319 --> 01:37:17.979
Plug everything you got. The floor is yours.
1864
01:37:18.699 --> 01:37:21.239
Absolutely. And thank you again for having me on. This
1865
01:37:21.300 --> 01:37:24.020
is awesome. Anytime you invite me on is an automatic yes.
1866
01:37:24.180 --> 01:37:28.020
I love talking ball with you anytime. But you can
1867
01:37:28.100 --> 01:37:31.529
find my work at CBS Sports HQ, CBS Sports Network.
1868
01:37:31.569 --> 01:37:34.609
I'll be primarily on TV and wherever you find streaming,
1869
01:37:34.689 --> 01:37:39.460
CBS Sports, wherever you're at. I'll probably be there talking football, college, NFL,
1870
01:37:39.520 --> 01:37:42.140
NFL draft. I'll be there. You can find my writing
1871
01:37:42.180 --> 01:37:48.960
at cbssports.com. But just follow me on social media, Blue Sky, JPacosta32, Twitter,
1872
01:37:49.000 --> 01:37:52.050
Acosta32 underscore JP. Just see what I'm doing, see where
1873
01:37:52.060 --> 01:37:52.430
I'm going.
1874
01:37:53.100 --> 01:37:55.569
Such a casual flex, like, yeah, I'm primarily on TV.
1875
01:37:56.289 --> 01:37:56.729
No big deal.
1876
01:37:57.229 --> 01:37:58.189
I'm just on TV.
1877
01:37:58.310 --> 01:38:01.890
It still don't feel real. Like, they let me do TV. Yeah.
1878
01:38:01.930 --> 01:38:03.409
I mean, no, you deserve it. You're a, yeah. Your
1879
01:38:03.470 --> 01:38:05.770
rise has been so genuine. You, you know what you're doing.
1880
01:38:05.789 --> 01:38:10.170
You put in honest work. There's no baiting or engagement baiting.
1881
01:38:10.229 --> 01:38:12.670
Like you, you're creative with what you do. You do
1882
01:38:12.729 --> 01:38:16.390
fun content, but also really good, like knowledgeable things that
1883
01:38:16.430 --> 01:38:18.770
people can learn from. You deserve every ounce of, uh,
1884
01:38:19.310 --> 01:38:21.069
success you can get. And yeah, great flex on.
1885
01:38:21.090 --> 01:38:21.229
Yeah.
1886
01:38:21.250 --> 01:38:22.369
You find me on TV all the time.
1887
01:38:22.529 --> 01:38:22.710
Yeah.
1888
01:38:22.770 --> 01:38:26.539
You are, one of the best. I will DM you
1889
01:38:26.699 --> 01:38:28.399
after this to sing your praises and thank you a
1890
01:38:28.439 --> 01:38:32.079
whole bunch. We kept it under two hours tonight. I'm
1891
01:38:32.100 --> 01:38:34.039
really proud. I'm really proud of us. We did it.
1892
01:38:34.039 --> 01:38:37.449
That's rare. In the ones where I've been on, we've
1893
01:38:37.470 --> 01:38:39.050
been on for two hours. I feel like we could
1894
01:38:39.090 --> 01:38:40.210
go even longer.
1895
01:38:40.289 --> 01:38:42.630
We honestly could. Yeah, we a thousand percent could. I
1896
01:38:42.670 --> 01:38:44.590
would say most of the time we do like two
1897
01:38:44.630 --> 01:38:47.210
to like, like 2.15 is the median. We've gone two
1898
01:38:47.229 --> 01:38:49.369
and a half hours. So, yeah, I'm proud. I think
1899
01:38:49.789 --> 01:38:52.970
we got in all our stuff. I think we put
1900
01:38:53.010 --> 01:38:56.020
in a really, like, five-star match here. But we got
1901
01:38:56.029 --> 01:38:58.260
all our stuff in. We got our moves in. We
1902
01:38:58.880 --> 01:39:01.880
got the hits. Yeah, you crushed it as always. I'll
1903
01:39:01.899 --> 01:39:04.060
DM you after. Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday night.
1904
01:39:04.100 --> 01:39:08.619
Enjoy Wednesday night football tomorrow, which is still a weird thing. Yeah,
1905
01:39:08.779 --> 01:39:10.859
weird thing to say. But I'll see you in the
1906
01:39:10.920 --> 01:39:13.180
social media-verse again. Thank you so much for taking the time.
1907
01:39:13.239 --> 01:39:15.359
You're awesome. Enjoy the rest of your night. Enjoy your week.
1908
01:39:15.420 --> 01:39:16.220
And I'll see you around.
1909
01:39:16.729 --> 01:39:17.829
Absolutely. Thank you for having me.
1910
01:39:18.350 --> 01:39:23.479
Later mr. JP Acosta sincerely one of my favorite guests
1911
01:39:24.060 --> 01:39:27.100
one of the best in the space I hope you
1912
01:39:27.119 --> 01:39:31.270
folks enjoyed his appearance he is worth a follow in
1913
01:39:31.319 --> 01:39:34.289
every way shape and form yeah like you said I
1914
01:39:34.329 --> 01:39:39.970
think so Twitter is Acosta 32 underscore J hold on
1915
01:39:40.189 --> 01:39:42.050
hold on he said it already I want to make
1916
01:39:42.109 --> 01:39:44.800
sure I get an even better yeah Twitter is at
1917
01:39:44.899 --> 01:39:49.869
Acosta 32 underscore JP. So a C O S T
1918
01:39:50.090 --> 01:39:55.350
a three, two underscore JP. And then on blue sky,
1919
01:39:55.369 --> 01:40:00.270
he is a cost of 32 JP. No underscore there.
1920
01:40:00.409 --> 01:40:00.569
Yeah.
1921
01:40:00.689 --> 01:40:01.229
One of the best.
1922
01:40:01.710 --> 01:40:02.029
Awesome.
1923
01:40:02.479 --> 01:40:05.659
Doing big things. JP is awesome. Check out his work
1924
01:40:05.819 --> 01:40:08.060
in every way, shape, and form. You know, what else
1925
01:40:08.359 --> 01:40:12.760
is awesome? You guessed it. The best pizza in Buffalo,
1926
01:40:12.800 --> 01:40:18.239
New York. That is one pie pizza. It's football week.
1927
01:40:18.680 --> 01:40:20.979
Maybe you want to get some pizza and enjoy Patriots
1928
01:40:21.020 --> 01:40:23.020
Seahawks tomorrow night. Maybe you want to get some pizza
1929
01:40:23.100 --> 01:40:26.159
and enjoy Rams 49ers on Thursday. Maybe you want to
1930
01:40:26.189 --> 01:40:29.239
get some pizza and enjoy some college football Thursday, Friday,
1931
01:40:29.359 --> 01:40:32.390
or Saturday, or some Bills football on Sunday, or primetime
1932
01:40:32.409 --> 01:40:34.789
stuff Sunday, whatever it is. One Pie Pizza is the
1933
01:40:34.810 --> 01:40:36.810
best pizza in Buffalo. I don't say that because they
1934
01:40:36.829 --> 01:40:39.430
sponsor the show. I'm not shilling out because they sponsor
1935
01:40:39.449 --> 01:40:42.090
the show. They sponsor the show because I sincerely believe
1936
01:40:42.130 --> 01:40:44.329
they are the best pizza in Buffalo, New York. So
1937
01:40:44.369 --> 01:40:47.020
if you live in Buffalo, if you're visiting Buffalo, get
1938
01:40:47.060 --> 01:40:52.529
yourself some one pie pizza. You will not be disappointed.
1939
01:40:52.630 --> 01:40:55.569
Sweet sauce, pie cup of char pepperoni, a whole bunch
1940
01:40:55.590 --> 01:40:58.890
of different specialty pizzas and different toppings you can get
1941
01:40:58.949 --> 01:41:02.210
and customizable stuff. They put, they sprinkle the toppings evenly
1942
01:41:02.250 --> 01:41:04.609
across the pizza. So you get good flavor in every bite.
1943
01:41:04.649 --> 01:41:07.010
They make their own homemade blue cheese, which is phenomenal.
1944
01:41:07.250 --> 01:41:10.079
They do a breakfast pizza, which is phenomenal. They have
1945
01:41:10.100 --> 01:41:14.619
a catering division called elevated catering of Buffalo, um, That's
1946
01:41:14.699 --> 01:41:16.439
awesome as well. I've had them do multiple stuff for
1947
01:41:16.470 --> 01:41:21.930
me over the years. They do great things when it
1948
01:41:21.970 --> 01:41:24.970
comes to food, and they're really good people on top
1949
01:41:25.010 --> 01:41:26.569
of it. I always say they're really good people making
1950
01:41:26.600 --> 01:41:29.819
really good food, partnering with the SPCA, partnering with Roswell
1951
01:41:29.840 --> 01:41:32.600
to try and knock out cancer, the Alzheimer's Foundation, their
1952
01:41:32.640 --> 01:41:36.510
Toys for Tots drive every fall and into Christmas season.
1953
01:41:37.319 --> 01:41:38.479
They just do a lot of good work for the
1954
01:41:38.500 --> 01:41:41.659
city and the community at large from a giving back standpoint.
1955
01:41:41.699 --> 01:41:44.699
And that's on top of providing us with phenomenal food
1956
01:41:45.300 --> 01:41:47.939
every single day. So get yourselves one pie pizza and
1957
01:41:48.020 --> 01:41:51.159
you will not be disappointed. I hope you folks were
1958
01:41:51.180 --> 01:41:53.350
not disappointed in this episode. I'm throwing up the banner.
1959
01:41:53.359 --> 01:41:55.270
That says to those folks, because we're going to start
1960
01:41:55.289 --> 01:41:57.850
to wind down here. If you enjoyed this episode, please, please, please.
1961
01:41:57.869 --> 01:41:59.890
And thank you. Drop a like on this video. Likes
1962
01:41:59.930 --> 01:42:03.010
are the lifeblood of these streams here on YouTube. So
1963
01:42:03.029 --> 01:42:05.949
whether you're watching live now or watching post live later,
1964
01:42:06.449 --> 01:42:09.649
Please drop a like. It goes a sincerely long way
1965
01:42:09.710 --> 01:42:11.819
more than you might think it does. If you enjoyed
1966
01:42:11.880 --> 01:42:15.000
this content, please drop a like. Turn on notifications for
1967
01:42:15.039 --> 01:42:18.119
the Disguise Coverage playlist here on YouTube. If you're listening
1968
01:42:18.149 --> 01:42:20.409
on one of the podcasting apps or platforms, that's cool too.
1969
01:42:20.489 --> 01:42:24.069
Please rate and review and subscribe to Disguise. the disguise
1970
01:42:24.109 --> 01:42:27.210
coverage podcast on whatever audio platform or podcasting app you're
1971
01:42:27.229 --> 01:42:29.979
listening to. If you want to drop a review, you know,
1972
01:42:30.000 --> 01:42:33.819
a star rating and give feedback. That's also tremendously helpful
1973
01:42:33.840 --> 01:42:35.720
as well. Word of mouth is always great. If you
1974
01:42:35.739 --> 01:42:39.439
enjoyed this show, if you enjoyed me, if you enjoyed JP,
1975
01:42:39.500 --> 01:42:41.100
if you like the bills, if you like just good
1976
01:42:41.180 --> 01:42:45.039
football conversation and X's and O's and details, tell your
1977
01:42:45.079 --> 01:42:47.470
family and friends and loved ones about this show. If
1978
01:42:47.510 --> 01:42:50.329
you hated this show or you hate me, tell your enemies.
1979
01:42:50.939 --> 01:42:52.760
about the show or me and try and ruin their
1980
01:42:52.779 --> 01:42:56.779
day by making them tune in. Football season is upon us.
1981
01:42:57.380 --> 01:42:59.239
We will see what the routine and the rhythm looks
1982
01:42:59.279 --> 01:43:02.399
like going forward. For me here on the show, I
1983
01:43:02.399 --> 01:43:05.979
think I'm going to be getting into more film breakdowns
1984
01:43:06.079 --> 01:43:10.510
within disguise coverage, either in the Tuesday slot and or
1985
01:43:10.649 --> 01:43:12.859
other days where I can fit it in trying to get,
1986
01:43:13.289 --> 01:43:16.170
you know, some more shorter form content, like 20 to
1987
01:43:16.170 --> 01:43:18.810
30 minute video breakdowns on some stuff and then still
1988
01:43:18.829 --> 01:43:23.369
doing the live episode on Tuesdays. focusing on higher level things,
1989
01:43:24.069 --> 01:43:26.630
maybe not doing the matchup previews as much, but leaning
1990
01:43:26.649 --> 01:43:30.569
into more of film breakdowns and the hows and whys
1991
01:43:30.609 --> 01:43:33.529
and the what's behind everything we're seeing. So I'm excited
1992
01:43:33.590 --> 01:43:35.520
for the content I got lined up this year for
1993
01:43:35.529 --> 01:43:38.100
the season, and I hope you folks enjoy what we
1994
01:43:38.119 --> 01:43:40.720
got cooking up for you guys here on the show.
1995
01:43:40.739 --> 01:43:42.699
Thank you to everybody who tuned in live. Thank you
1996
01:43:42.720 --> 01:43:45.979
to everyone who watched post-live, listened, whatever form or fashion
1997
01:43:46.000 --> 01:43:49.680
your episode consumption comes in. I'm tremendously appreciative of it
1998
01:43:49.960 --> 01:43:51.899
and extremely thankful for it. I hope you folks enjoyed
1999
01:43:51.920 --> 01:43:54.199
this episode. If there's anything you had on your mind
2000
01:43:54.220 --> 01:43:55.399
that we didn't get to in the show or I
2001
01:43:55.420 --> 01:43:57.659
didn't bring up, drop it into the comments here on
2002
01:43:57.680 --> 01:44:00.720
YouTube or get at me on Twitter at pro underscore
2003
01:44:00.760 --> 01:44:04.479
underscore ant. That's pro two underscores A-N-T. Get at me
2004
01:44:04.979 --> 01:44:08.430
on Blue Sky at pro ant. No underscores there, just P-R-O-A-N-T.
2005
01:44:08.449 --> 01:44:10.050
If you're a Cover One insider, get at me in
2006
01:44:10.069 --> 01:44:13.649
the Discord. And I hope you and your family and
2007
01:44:13.689 --> 01:44:16.010
friends and loved ones are all doing well and staying safe.
2008
01:44:16.289 --> 01:44:18.420
Be kind to one another. Take care of one another.
2009
01:44:18.760 --> 01:44:20.840
I will see you when I see you. Enjoy the
2010
01:44:20.859 --> 01:44:25.890
rest of your Tuesday. Enjoy your week. Godspeed. And as always,
2011
01:44:26.609 --> 01:44:26.979
go Bills.