OM DENNE EPISODE
Could oil be the catalyst that wakes cross-asset volatility?
In this CF Benchmarks X Space, recorded on July 23, 2026, CF Benchmarks Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA (@gxselby), is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilkoczuck; Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA (@ThomasPerfumo); CF Benchmarks Head of Business Development Peter Stern (@sternpeter9); and special guest Craig Shapiro (@ces921), Senior Macro Strategist at NinjaTrader and author of The Aletheia Narrative.
The conversation captures markets at a genuine inflection point. With July options expiry behind us and dealer positioning near cyclical lows, the cross-asset volatility suppressed throughout the year may finally be reawakening.
Craig explains his “coiled spring” framework for record-low implied correlations and traces the potential sequence of a volatility shock—from oil to rates, credit and, ultimately, equities. The group also examines why the hyperscalers’ AI capital-expenditure boom is increasingly relying on external financing rather than free cash flow—and whether that shift is beginning to strain some of the world’s most profitable companies.
The discussion then turns to the CLARITY Act, including the Senate draft’s ethics provision and the compressed timeline ahead of the August recess, leaving its prospects for passage close to a coin flip.
Chapters:
00:00 – Introduction and Team Welcome
01:55 – Meet Craig Shapiro: Two Decades on the Buy Side
04:14 – Market Snapshot: Bitcoin, Oil and Rates
05:49 – Implied Correlations and the “Cold Spring” Effect
12:15 – Semiconductors vs. Software: Where the Dispersion Lies
15:38 – Hyperscalers Turn Cash-Flow Negative
21:21 – AI CapEx: Payback, Funding and the Shift From Debt to Equity
29:52 – The Yen Carry Trade and Dollar-Yen at 40-Year Highs
35:45 – Oil, Inflation and the July CPI
38:43 – Crude’s Backwardation and the 2027 Supply Glut
39:59 – Can the Fed Ignore Oil? Warsh’s Next Move and the Balance Sheet
46:50 – The CLARITY Act: Inside the Senate Draft and Its Ethics Provision
56:12 – The Week Ahead: What We’re Watching
Listen to the original X Space: https://x.com/i/spaces/1vKpPPAqaVmKE
Follow the speakers and organizations on X:
CF Benchmarks — @CFBenchmarks https://x.com/CFBenchmarks
Gabe Selby, CFA — @gxselby https://x.com/gxselby
Thomas Perfumo, CFA — @ThomasPerfumo https://x.com/ThomasPerfumo
Peter Stern — @sternpeter9 https://x.com/sternpeter9
Craig Shapiro — @ces921 https://x.com/ces921
Kraken — @krakenfx https://x.com/krakenfx
NinjaTrader — @NinjaTrader https://x.com/NinjaTrader
