Beggars Can't Be Hoosiers

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Welcome back to Beyond the Polls. This week, I'm joined
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by Indiana political google Brian Howie to discuss President Trump's
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challenges to seven sitting Republican state senators. Let's dive in. Well,
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we're coming to an end of our primary draught. We
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haven't had a primary for the entire month, but starting
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in May, we're going to have a lot every single week.
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Next week we have the Indiana and Ohio primaries, and
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then after that we have Nebraska and West Virginia, and
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then it starts to get really fun, particularly with the
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Saturday primary, where Senator Bill Cassidy discovers whether or not
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he's going to make it to the runoff or whether
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or not his senatorial career ends before we even get
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to the nominee. But I don't want to talk about
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that other than to set the stage that we're about
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ready to get into a lot of primaries, and that
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means you're going to get a lot of guests on
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this program to talk about those primaries. I'm going to
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try and have somebody or multiple people who are experts
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in all of these different races be educating all of
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us on each of the next few programs where I
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want to go this week is to talk about something
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that won't show up in the primary statistics but at
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least now, but will show up in your inbox if
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it hasn't already. And that's Ron De Santis' proposed redistricting
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in Florida. That the map Cisantas dropped on Monday purports
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to be a twenty four to four R map, it's
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currently a twenty to eight Republican advantage. It's already a
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gary mandered map, but it's preparing to become super gary mandered.
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And on the face of it, this looks like a
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pretty solid bet that all of the seats that he
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has added were won by President Trump by between nine
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and eighteen points three of them at ten or above.
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One at nine point two percent, and you'd think, well,
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you know, Trump nine or that's probably going to be pickups.
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There's not a single Democrat who holds a seat that
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Trump won by nine point two points or above. Part
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I'm kind of playing around there. Jared Golden of Maine
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holds one that Trump won by nine point one, but
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truth is truth. Nine point two is different than nine
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point one. It's also notable that Jared Golden is retiring
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rather than face the voters again. And this is one
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of the few seats that even in a bad environment,
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most observers are tipping to flip Republican precisely because of
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that edge. So has Desant has done it? Has he
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outthunked all of the others and perhaps got himself back
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into ill haf A's the man in the Wouville offices
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and mar Lago's good graces. Well, there are some people
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who say, well, maybe this is not as good. They
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take a look at President Biden's showing in twenty twenty,
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and they note that President Biden won a number of
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these seats that President Trump now won, and then they
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go back further to the present by one six seats
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rather than the four that are being conceded to Democrats,
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And that if you go back to twenty eighteen, when
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Ron de Santis barely won and when Senator Rick Scott
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barely won their races, that Democrats at the statewide level
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would have won nine of these seats. So could this
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be in a blue year, a dummy mander where Republicans
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would go from twenty to eight to nineteen to nine.
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I don't think so.
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And the reason why I don't think so, is because
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Florida has undergone massive political changes since twenty eighteen, even
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since twenty twenty. If you take a look at the
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partisan registration in twenty eighteen, Republicans trailed Democrats as they
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had throughout Florida's statehood by over a quarter million votes.
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They're still able to win, but Democrats had a built
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in partisan advantage that made the state very competitive. In
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twenty twenty, Democrats lead had drop, but they still led
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in voter registration, and Joe Biden lost the state by
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a surprisingly larger margin, in part because of the first
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of those Hispanic waves that we started to see in
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this decade, particularly Cubans in the Miami area, snapping back
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to Republican voting patterns and perhaps exceeding them what they
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had had prior to President Trump's entry into politics. But
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it was still a close state, both in terms of
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its partisan outlook and in terms of the voting results.
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No longer is that Republicans now lead statewide by one
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and a half million. Yeah, you heard that right, one
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and a half million registered voters. And it's not just
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because Republicans have gained. They have gained statewide by a
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few hundred thousand over twenty twenty. Some of that is
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surely because of the large number of new residents. Florida
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has gained one one point nine million residents since twenty twenty,
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and many of them are people who are fleeing blue
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states for warmer climbs and better tax climates. So we've
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seen Republican registration pick up, but what we've really seen
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is an utter collapse in Democratic registration. Democrats have lost
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over nine hundred thousand registrants since twenty twenty.
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That's right.
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They've gone from four point nine million to a tad
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over four million in the space of five years and
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a couple of months. That is a massive, massive decline.
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So if you take a look at Biden numbers, you're
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baking in voters who aren't even around anymore. They've either
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left the state, they've passed away, or they've switched parties.
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And I'm sure it's a combination of all three of
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those things. But what we've got is a partisan lineup
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in the state that has changed signi efficantly even from
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these past elections that are being recoursed back to. So
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I think what we have to look at is what
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we've got which is I expect that there will be
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a Hispanic shift away from Republican. That's what all the
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polls say, That's what the voting returns that we've had
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so far say. Even in the Virginia redistricting, which tended
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to be better for Republicans than one might have thought,
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non white areas in northern Virginia tended to shift back
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to their pre twenty twenty four or pre twenty twenty
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one for Younkin standings, they tended to be more democratic.
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In other words, they tended to vote yes on the referendum.
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So I think what we're looking at is I don't
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expect a Republican congressional candidate to win a Trump plus
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ten and a half seat by ten and a half
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points in twenty twenty four. The question is will twenty
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percent of Trump's voters flip to Democrat? Because that's what
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would be required to roughly eliminate a ten and a
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half point shift, And that's a really hard thing to say.
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Is that you take a look at the Texas Jerry
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Mander and the Texas Republican Jerrymander tries to put two
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Democrats at risk in the Rio Grand Valley Henry Kuaar
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Visente come Gonzales and Quaar seat is Trump plus seventh
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point seven point three and Gonzales seat is Trump plus
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four point four. And again you've got two Democratic incumbents
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running in these areas. The Cook Political Report has Quaar,
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who has always demonstrated some strength personal strength in his
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area lean Democrat, and Gonzales is rated as a toss up. Well,
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why if you've got a plus four and a plus
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seven seat in Hispanic areas where you would expect to
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see the Hispanic swing back have particularly strong affect. If
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those are still rated in the way that you have rated,
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why would seats plus nine, plus ten and a half
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plus eighteen not be rated even more republican. I think
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that morn DeSantis may not get all four seats in
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the worst case scenario, maybe he only gets three. But
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I think this largely fits Republican dreams, and that analysts
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should be looking at the partisan registration figures of these districts.
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That there is no seat that Democrats could carry in
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twenty twenty four where they did not have a massive,
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massive registration edge registration seats that are close in registration
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they lost in twenty twenty four. I would expect that
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you would need to see a Democratic registration edge or
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near parody, even in a good year, in order for
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them to carry this. And I think what we're looking
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at with the Florida gerrymander is that the last laugh
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comes down to DeSantis, the last laugh comes to Republicans.
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It doesn't mean that the war, which was launched by
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Trump's decision to start pressuring Republicans nationwide, is going to
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be a win for Republicans, but looks like DeSantis has
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pulled the Republican fat out of the fire, and even
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with Virginia and California's heavy Democratic jerry manners in the books,
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assuming the Virginia Supreme Court upholds the constitutionality of the
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process that resulted in the referendum win last week, then
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I think what we're talking about is either a draw
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or perhaps a one seat advantage to Republicans. That's a
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lot better than a lot of people thought Republicans were
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looking at last week after the maps in Virginia were approved.
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And if the Virginia Supreme Court does the unexpected, if
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it throws that map out on procedural grounds, then it's
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going to be clear that the registricting war that Donald
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Trump started will be a redistricting war that perhaps doesn't
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save his majority, but will add three to five seats
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to Republicans and could very well, if not make them competitive,
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certainly limit the sort of losses that they might otherwise
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expect to receive.
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Well.
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Usually, America's eyes turns to Indiana around Memorial Day because
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of the Indianapolis five hundred, but political eyes are turning
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to the Whosier state a little bit earlier because May
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Fifth's primary offers a massive test of President Donald Trump's
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ability to dominate the Republican Party. And here to talk
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about the challenges to Indiana's state senators who refuse to
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back President Trump's redistricting Gary Mander attempt is the Indiana
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political guru himself. Brian Howie, columnist of Howie Politics Indiana
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State Affairs. Bryan, welcome, Thanks, Henry, well set the stage
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for us.
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How did this?
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How is it that the President of the United States
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is putting his credibility on the line by trying to
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unseat people in Kokomo and terre Haute.
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Yeah, well he ignored you know, the Senate President Roderick Bray,
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who makes his living being able to count votes. And
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you know, when this scheme was announced in August, Roderick
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Bray was consistent through all the way through December eleventh,
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when the Indiana Senate voted thirty one to nineteen against
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the Trump scheme of you know, redrawing mid decade the
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congressional maps. And so now we're into the retribution campaign,
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and you know, I've never seen anything like this. This
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is this is completely a different new chapter. And who's
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your politics as well as nationalise. We've never had a
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sitting president of the United States, you know, recruiting Indiana
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State Senate candidates, and that's what's happened. And then he's endorsed.
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I'm following seven races and it's just been a complete
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anomaly as to anything I've ever experienced. And I've been
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publishing Howie Politics since nineteen ninety four.
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Well you were publishing it when Democrats were actually roughly
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with Republicans.
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And absolutely, yeah, yeah, yeah.
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Well, just for my listeners, this is a Republican controlled
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state Senate. The state Senate president is a Republican. Obviously,
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you're telling me that all along. He said we don't
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have the votes. Why didn't they have the votes? When
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virtually every other state legislature that was asked eventually bent
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the knee to the President of the United States.
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Well, you know, I think I think we're very similar
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to Kansas and in the fact that, you know, Hoosiers
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don't like to be told what to do, particularly by
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folks in Washington, d c. And that's that's what's happened.
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You know. I was proud that the Senate decided to
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stand up against this, And when you looked at the
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proposed congressional districts, I think that could have been a
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disaster because this is looking like a huge wave election
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for Democrats, and most of the Indiana Republican seats were
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in the fifteen to eighteen plus Republican range on the
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Cook Partisan Index, and they were going to take all
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these seats and create basically a bunch of you know,
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plus seven or eight percent Republican districts, and that's a
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for for a disaster. And I think Roderic Bray understood that.
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He kept saying, you know, instead of uh uh, you know,
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changing the maps and uh uh uh, you know, raising
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all this dark money and stuff, let's go ahead and
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fund a challenger to uh Representative Frank Mrvan up up
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in the region, you know, and and and see if
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we can pick off at least one seat that way.
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I don't think Andre Carson was ever going to be
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in any trouble in Indianapolis. And what so the map
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that they came up with, that you know, senators didn't
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even get a chance to look at until right before
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the vote. It was a perversion of Gary Manderin. I mean,
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it's just it was just something else. You know, you
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had uh Carson's district tour in Indianapolis. It went all
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the way down to the Ohio River. You know, you
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had Gary Indiana in with the little Wabash Upper Wabash
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River towns of Peru and Wabash. You know, they had
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nothing in common whatsoever.
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What they had in common was they stood as obstacles
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in the way of Republicans winning the sea. It amazing,
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you know, for people who don't study political demography, Indiana's
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I read of Indiana. It's like a lot of other
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Midwestern cities, is that the cities and the old industrial
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areas still have lingering or strong democratic support. Rural areas
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hugely Republican. Now that the southern part of Indiana has
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turned Republican in the last twenty years. And these maps
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just took like the steel areas or the former steel
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areas of Gary to attach them to rural Indiana and
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split up Indianapolis. And it's a substantial African American community
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into multiple districts that make the Illinois Salami Mander of
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the Democrats look over at across the state boarder with
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a little bit of envy.
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Wow, I wish we had thought of that.
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So, yeah, it's it was something that I'd never seen before,
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and it was wildly unpopular with voters. Every poll that
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I saw leading into that December eleventh vote, you know,
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had had you know, opposition in the sixtieth to seventieth percentile.
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And so it was it was just a Trumpian scheme
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that Indiana Republicans are rejected. And now the key question
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for next Tuesday is will voters follow the lead of
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their senators.
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Sometimes presidents get involved and it's just perfunctory. Sometimes they
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get involved and they do a little bit. Now, the
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President's super pack, I don't believe has been spending money,
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but the seven people who have received have his endorsement.
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There's this a massive amount of campaign spending going on
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isn't there.
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Yes, and it's and it's all dark money. We're able
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to follow the large donations that are required to be
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reported with the Indiana Elections Division a month prior to
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an election, so I've been following those large donations to
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the incumbent senators. But the money that's flowing in against
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them through David McIntosh's Club for Growth Action for the
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Jim Banks Pack, he's our junior senator, Governor Brown Hope Pack,
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that's all dark money. And it's the last I looked,
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I think had impact headed at like ten million spent
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on behalf of these challenger candidates. But it's hard to
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tell who's actually giving the money. It's all dark money.
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And to put this in perspective, I believe each Indiana
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State Senator represents somewhere in the neighborhood of one hundred
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and thirty hundred and fifty thousand people. Is that roughly
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correct sir?
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Yeah? Yeah, I think so, yeah, yeah.
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So that would mean that the combined number of the
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people in these races would be equal to like one
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in a quarter or one in a third congressional districts.
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And you're spending ten million dollars and relatively inexpensive markets,
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you know, when you're not talking about any market the
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size even of Atlanta, much less much less Los Angeles
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and New York. So ten million goes a long way
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in these races.
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Yeah. So I was covering the Senate District forty one,
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which is Columbus. That's Mike Pence's hometown up to Franklin,
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just south of it's kind of between Indianapolis and Louisville.
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And the challenger is a State Rep. Michelle Davis, and
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her she's had like twenty two glossy mailers that are
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clogging up, you know, snail mailboxes. They've spent seven hundred
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and fifty thousand in part of it in broadcast TV
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in the Indianapolis market. And it's just people that I
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know in that district are just kind of like they're
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over it, They're through with that. They hate to get
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the mailers, and it's it's just so the key question
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then is who's who's going to turn out? And nobody knows.
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You know, I've talked to a number of county chairs,
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Randy Gentry over in Vigo County up in the in
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the Terrorhood area. I said, what, you know, what's going
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to happen. That's the where State Senator Greg Good is
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facing two challengers, both named Wilson, and he says, I
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have no idea. I have no idea who's going to
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turn out. And so that's that's why next Tuesday is
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maybe the most fascinating day. And who's your politics since
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Barack Obama carried the state in two thousand and eight.
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Well, you know, let's walk down a couple of these races,
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all seven actually of these races. I mean, for I
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just want to make it a side for long time
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listeners of this podcast. A few weeks ago, on the
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Ad of the Week segment, we showed a couple of
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these ads, the one that's some of the ones that
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say that good is bad. But you know what I've
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got as the seven races are Senate districts one, eleven,
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twenty nineteen, twenty three, twenty one.
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Thirty eight, and forty one.
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Yep.
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Okay, can we go in numerical order and just kind
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of run down who's the challenger, how has that race
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been going? And one thing to note is that these
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incumbents are not lacking money themselves. So if there's all
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this millions of dollars from the dark money. They're also
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filling the mailboxes with glossy mailers and up on the
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television with their own ads.
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Sure. Yeah, I felt like the Senate incumbents via the
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Majority Campaign Committee. And by the way, Republicans have controlled
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the Senate since I think nineteen seventy six, so it
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is about as it's as thoroughly Republican a Bastian as
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anything in the nation. And of the seven races that
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I'm following right now, I've got four leaning to the
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incumbents and then three toss ups, so we can go
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down race by race. You want to start District one.
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Yeah, that's what my listeners like is, you know, we
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can't get too far in the weeds for beyond the polls, listeners.
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I've got Senate District one. That's State Senator Dan Deernault,
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who used to be the Lake County Republican chairman. I've
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got that Leans and.
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Lake County is Gary for my listeners who are yes.
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Yeah, And that's actually the you know, probably the second
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most important story you know right now, there's a lot
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of speculation that the Chicago Bears are going to be
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building a new stadium in Hammond, Indiana. So so anyway,
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I've got that one as Lean's incumbent. And then at
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the Senate District eleven, that's in the Elkhart Granger South
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Bend just north of the South Bend area, that's State
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Senator Linda Rogers. She's facing a challenge from doctor Brian Schmuttler,
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and I've got that also Leans Rogers. At this point,
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Schmutzler seems to be a self under. He's loaned his
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campaign about three hundred thousand dollars. And one of the
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precursors I'm looking at there is that she's Linda Rodgers
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has been is backed by state Representative Tim Westco, who's
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very influential heads the House Elections Committee. A number of
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the mayors, former mayors from Mishawak in South Bend have
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endorsed her. So I think right now, I think I've
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got that as Lean's Leans Rogers. Okay, Senate District nineteen
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is Travis Holdman is the incumbent. He's in House leaders
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or Senate leadership, and the Senate Majority campaign has not
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put any resources in. And you've got a lot of
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other Senators who aren't up for re election this year
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that are pumping money into that race, and he's facing
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the Bluffin City Councilman Blake fightd her and President Trump
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announced Fighter's candidacy before he did back in And again,
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that's crazy. Why is the President of the United States,
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you know, recruiting candidates in northeastern Indiana. You know, that's
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just kind of patently absurd.
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Where is the nineteenth sixt Where is that one located
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in That's.
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Just south of Fort Wayne in the Bluffton area.
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Okay, and how do you rate that one?
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I've got that likely holdman, that's the one likely race
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I've got. Okay, So then let's go. Let's go to
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a Senate District twenty three. That's the freshman a Senator,
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Spencer Deary. He is a former aid to then Purdue
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president Mitch Daniels. And and I've got that as a
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toss up. The Senate Majority campaign has pumped a lot
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of money into that race. They've gone negative. He's facing
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the Fountain County Republican Chairman Paula. Copenhaer, who ran in
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the primary four years and.
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Lost him in the primary.
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Yeah, and both sides are going negative. That's a precursor.
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That's one of the reasons why I put it in
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the Toss episode.
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Well, that's always a sign. I mean, I was a
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candidate forty years ago.
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And what did you run for, Henry.
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I ran for the California State Legislature, and as twenty four,
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I would have been the youngest state assemblyman in the
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twentieth century, and the voters decided I needed more. CE
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forty years later, none of them have come back to
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say you're seasoned enough yet. But I remember the days
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of fifteen mailers, eighteen mailers, and everyone's stuffing the stuff
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and so forth. It does get to a point where
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voters kind of threw up their hands.
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YEP, I skipped over Senate District twenty one. That's Jim Buck,
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State Senator Jim Buck, and he's facing Tipton County Commissioner,
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Oh what's his name? Tracy Powell and that race and
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the Columbus area race. Both Buck, who's eighty years old,
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and Greg Walker had announced that they weren't going to
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run for reelection and then they changed their minds, and
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so Tracy Powell had declared for that seat prior to
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Buck changing his mind. There's a lot of Senate Majority
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Campaign Committee money going in both sides have gotten negative
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on broadcast TV, and so I've got that one as
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a toss up. Also ditto for the Walker seat the
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Columbus Area District forty one. I've got that as a
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toss up. Also again at a lot of dark money
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coming in, a lot of Senate Majority campaign Committee coming
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in Michelle Day as the representative had declared before Walker
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changed his mind and uh, and so that's why I've
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got that as a toss up. And then the Senate
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District thirty eight is the Terre Haute seat Greg Good
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facing uh Vigo County councilwoman Brenda Wilson and then another
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another candidate named Wilson, who Jim Bopp, the very conservative lawyer,
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has has tried to force Alexander Wilson off the ballot.
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He saw it as a scheme. You know, have two
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Wilson's running, and she has been able to remain on
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the ballot. So I've got that seat as as Lean's
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good simply because you know the divide and conquer thing. Yeah,
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a split a split challenger field.
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So Good may come Good.
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May he may You know who who knows what's going
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to happen? I really don't know. Again, this is such
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uncharted territory, Henry, that I just I'm careful as this.
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You know, tell my readers, you know, this is my take.
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But nobody really knows what's going to happen, because nobody's
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ever been through this before.
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One question I want to ask is that Indiana does
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not have partisan registration, So if I'm a Democrat, I
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can take a Republican ballot. Now I have to take
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a Republican ballot for all the races I can't pick
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and choose. Do you see any indications that some Democrats
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are looking at this and saying, hey, I want to
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defend the guy who's standing with a woman who's standing
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up to Trump. I'm going to take the Republican ballot
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this time.
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I'm watching that a friend of mine, Dave Bangert, publishes
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a substack site based in Lafayette. I was reading today
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00:29:00.839 --> 00:29:03.359
he was he was looking at the early voting trends
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and he noticed that there, even though this is the
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deary Copenhavior race is Republican race, there's actually been more
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democratic early voting than Republicans. I'm not I'm not sure
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how to read that. We're also seeing a spike in
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early voting here in Indianapolis where there aren't any any
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of these Senate races, although you've got a congressional race
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primary that that that's being waged. She can sell Andre Carson.
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Oh, is that a serious challenge.
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I don't think so. And the reason I say that
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is if Andrea was feeling the heat, we'd be, you know,
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getting mailers and all sorts of broadcast TV ads and everything.
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We're just not seeing that at this point.
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I take it that victorious Sparts in her perennial will
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I won't I back and forth. You're not seeing a
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bunch of ads trying to take her out in the
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Republican side.
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Well, no, and she does not have a Republican primary
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or credible. I don't know if there may be a
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gadfly candidate in there, but she's not in any danger
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in the primary. But if the magnitude of the Democratic wave,
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you know, comes in, like I think it's going to,
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I'm going to be watching the Sparts seat come November.
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Yeah, because she has a lot of Hamilton County, yes,
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the highly educated suburb north of Indianapolis. For my listeners
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who don't immediately recognize the reference, and that's exactly the
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sort of place that has been trending blue over the
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last decade.
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Yes, yes, so what do you so, let's walk this down.
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You've got four races likeli or leaning to the incumbent,
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Three is toss ups. What do you think happens if
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you know, let's run down a couple of scenarios. One
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is that you've got them all right, but that Trump
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side wins all the toss ups and it's four incumbents
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and three challengers. How will that be perceived in Indiana?
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Will that be perceived as wow, you know, you can
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stand up to Trump and win? Or will that be
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perceived as it's a coin flip. I shouldn't take the chance.
477
00:31:18.880 --> 00:31:23.519
Yeah, I don't know. Again, this is such this is
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such new territory that I'm not sure you know the
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most the two most definitive thing that can happens is
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either all the incumbents win or they all lose, And
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then that's going to be easy, you know.
482
00:31:38.559 --> 00:31:38.640
To.
483
00:31:40.640 --> 00:31:45.559
Analyze, you know, and if Trump were to lose all
484
00:31:45.599 --> 00:31:49.839
these challengers, I mean, you know, if you get involved
485
00:31:49.839 --> 00:31:55.839
in Indiana State's Senate primary races and you don't have enough,
486
00:31:57.480 --> 00:32:01.839
you know, to prevail and again. Trump carried the state
487
00:32:02.039 --> 00:32:04.880
with fifty seven percent of the vote all three times,
488
00:32:05.160 --> 00:32:10.599
so he's a force to be reckoned with. But if
489
00:32:10.640 --> 00:32:14.759
he loses all those I think that that is just
490
00:32:15.000 --> 00:32:18.559
going to be horrible news for his presidency. But it
491
00:32:18.599 --> 00:32:23.279
goes beyond, it goes beyond that. You've got the freshman
492
00:32:23.759 --> 00:32:29.279
US Senator Jim Banks, who has is funding and has
493
00:32:29.400 --> 00:32:32.799
endorsed a number of these incumbents. You've got the Governor
494
00:32:32.880 --> 00:32:37.920
Mike Brown also in his first term, and nobody, nobody
495
00:32:37.920 --> 00:32:43.079
in Indiana, nobody in Indiana Republican history can remember a
496
00:32:43.200 --> 00:32:51.519
sitting governor, you know, so publicly challenging state Senate candidates.
497
00:32:51.640 --> 00:32:58.759
And so if all seven wins, you know, they're going
498
00:32:58.839 --> 00:33:01.759
to be lining up with their pants down, you know,
499
00:33:03.079 --> 00:33:06.640
telling him if you want to see your legislation go anywhere,
500
00:33:06.680 --> 00:33:11.400
next winner, you need to, you know. So there's a
501
00:33:11.440 --> 00:33:16.039
lot of huge players in the state. The Lieutenant Governor
502
00:33:16.119 --> 00:33:20.839
Micah beck With, he's also been very active in backing
503
00:33:21.480 --> 00:33:26.720
the challengers. So if they were to all lose, all
504
00:33:26.720 --> 00:33:33.799
the challengers lose, the political damage is going to be incalculable.
505
00:33:34.519 --> 00:33:38.000
Well, Braun would come up for renomination and reelection in
506
00:33:38.079 --> 00:33:41.680
twenty twenty eight. If he were to lose six of
507
00:33:41.720 --> 00:33:44.119
the seven or seven of the seven challenges that he's
508
00:33:44.160 --> 00:33:47.720
been prominently funding, could that mean that they'll be a
509
00:33:47.759 --> 00:33:50.759
prominent challenger perhaps one of these state senators.
510
00:33:51.519 --> 00:33:55.920
Yeah. Possibly yes. As a matter of fact, I have
511
00:33:56.200 --> 00:34:00.240
had a number of Republican operatives who've said, well that
512
00:34:00.279 --> 00:34:03.400
they don't think Bron's going to run for reelection, you know,
513
00:34:03.519 --> 00:34:06.000
and he's he's kind of acting like it. I mean,
514
00:34:06.079 --> 00:34:07.799
you know, he only served one term in the in
515
00:34:07.880 --> 00:34:11.400
the US Senate before he decided to come back and
516
00:34:11.480 --> 00:34:16.000
run in Indiana. Now, let's let's put the the other
517
00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:20.239
shoe on. Let's say you know, all the challengers win.
518
00:34:20.480 --> 00:34:24.800
I mean, then you know, the president, the Senator, the
519
00:34:24.840 --> 00:34:27.639
governor are all going to be able to say, yep,
520
00:34:27.719 --> 00:34:33.000
we told you so. You know, retribution works. And although
521
00:34:33.079 --> 00:34:36.599
there Adam Wren for politically had a quote from Mitch
522
00:34:36.679 --> 00:34:40.440
Daniels saying, you know, well, retribution is is, you know,
523
00:34:40.800 --> 00:34:44.800
not good politics. So and and Mitch Daniels is probably
524
00:34:44.840 --> 00:34:48.960
one of the most astute, you know, uh, retail level
525
00:34:49.400 --> 00:34:53.360
politicians I've ever I've ever covered. And so you know,
526
00:34:53.400 --> 00:34:54.639
we'll see if he's right or not.
527
00:34:55.559 --> 00:34:57.920
Yeah, I mean, it's just it's kind of like a
528
00:34:57.920 --> 00:35:04.960
political version of that the Corleone takeout and Godfather while
529
00:35:05.000 --> 00:35:07.000
Michael sitting at the baptismal font.
530
00:35:07.719 --> 00:35:11.199
Yeah. Yeah, so yeah, I may have to use that one.
531
00:35:11.519 --> 00:35:12.639
Oh, please go ahead.
532
00:35:15.760 --> 00:35:17.880
And you can also know that it didn't stop him
533
00:35:18.599 --> 00:35:21.519
the families from trying to get back at him and Godfather.
534
00:35:21.079 --> 00:35:21.559
Too, did it.
535
00:35:21.800 --> 00:35:22.000
Yeah?
536
00:35:23.639 --> 00:35:27.760
But yeah, so this is again, this is just fascinating.
537
00:35:28.480 --> 00:35:31.440
It hasn't happened before. I want to ask you kind
538
00:35:31.440 --> 00:35:34.280
of a tangential question, which is I noticed that the
539
00:35:34.320 --> 00:35:40.280
President endorsed ten representatives who voted for his redistricting in
540
00:35:40.360 --> 00:35:44.320
the House races, and are any of them in danger
541
00:35:44.440 --> 00:35:48.360
from anti jerry mandering challengers or is that just kind
542
00:35:48.360 --> 00:35:52.039
of a pro forma reward for people who helped him out.
543
00:35:52.440 --> 00:35:56.320
Yeah, I think the latter, Okay, is what happened. You know,
544
00:35:56.920 --> 00:36:01.639
nobody's talking about any of the any of these houses challenges.
545
00:36:01.800 --> 00:36:05.119
I've spent all my time on the Senate just because
546
00:36:06.199 --> 00:36:07.400
such a strange bird.
547
00:36:08.159 --> 00:36:08.440
Yeah.
548
00:36:08.559 --> 00:36:10.760
I mean, I don't remember the name of the movie
549
00:36:10.800 --> 00:36:14.679
that came out in twenty twenty one, but it was
550
00:36:15.280 --> 00:36:19.400
oh gosh, help me, John Stewart. John Stewart was behind this,
551
00:36:19.519 --> 00:36:23.320
and it was a Democratic strategist who gets involved in
552
00:36:23.320 --> 00:36:27.480
a May oil race in rural Wisconsin because there's some
553
00:36:27.639 --> 00:36:31.639
viral video of this Democrat taking conservative themes and the
554
00:36:31.679 --> 00:36:35.199
Republicans involve, and it's hilarious if you know something about politics,
555
00:36:35.239 --> 00:36:37.719
because there's this little town and they're talking about targeted
556
00:36:37.760 --> 00:36:42.960
mailers and data driven analytics versus polls and so forth,
557
00:36:43.119 --> 00:36:45.480
and it ends up. I won't spoil it for you,
558
00:36:45.559 --> 00:36:48.159
but it sounds like this is a real version of
559
00:36:48.199 --> 00:36:51.400
that that here's this can be normally. This is the
560
00:36:51.440 --> 00:36:55.280
sort of politics where it's handled maybe at an elite level,
561
00:36:55.360 --> 00:36:58.920
you know, fifty two hundred people who would be leaders
562
00:36:58.960 --> 00:37:01.000
in each party in these areas, and then you go
563
00:37:01.039 --> 00:37:04.800
through a primary and suddenly you've got literally twenty million
564
00:37:04.880 --> 00:37:09.039
dollars on both sides flooding your mailboxes, your digital lads.
565
00:37:09.039 --> 00:37:11.519
You've probably got phone calls. I mean, gosh, I'd hate
566
00:37:11.559 --> 00:37:14.000
to think whether or not they've got somebody's dog collar
567
00:37:14.239 --> 00:37:17.320
like locked on. Oh it's the Cavalier or the Saint
568
00:37:17.360 --> 00:37:18.679
Bernard vote.
569
00:37:18.719 --> 00:37:22.440
Well, and you know Braun, you know, coming in and
570
00:37:22.920 --> 00:37:26.920
waging war against these these seven incumbents, I mean normally
571
00:37:29.239 --> 00:37:32.360
and a stuke governor has enforcers in the hallway and
572
00:37:32.400 --> 00:37:36.119
if somebody steps out of line, you know, they're pulled
573
00:37:36.159 --> 00:37:41.519
into the office. They're they're threatened. You know, you're never
574
00:37:41.599 --> 00:37:44.639
going to see, you know, any money for your roads
575
00:37:44.719 --> 00:37:48.880
or anything. And it's all handled quietly. And this time,
576
00:37:49.000 --> 00:37:51.719
this time, that's why this is, you know, a complete
577
00:37:51.840 --> 00:37:54.840
freak show. You know, this is all out out in
578
00:37:54.880 --> 00:37:58.599
the open, and there's going to be some some real
579
00:37:58.639 --> 00:38:02.239
winners and losers. You come next next Wednesday morning.
580
00:38:02.760 --> 00:38:05.559
So you and I are recording this on Tuesday, one
581
00:38:05.599 --> 00:38:09.199
week before the election. What are you going to be
582
00:38:09.280 --> 00:38:12.800
looking for in terms of early vote trends that will
583
00:38:12.840 --> 00:38:15.320
come in over the next week And where are you
584
00:38:15.400 --> 00:38:16.760
going to be on election night?
585
00:38:17.440 --> 00:38:19.800
Well, I'm probably going to be sitting in front of
586
00:38:19.840 --> 00:38:23.400
my computer watching, you know, watching the results come in.
587
00:38:24.239 --> 00:38:27.440
And uh so will I I live tweet analysis and
588
00:38:27.480 --> 00:38:30.480
I'll be sitting there. Oh, Kara Hote five hasn't come
589
00:38:30.519 --> 00:38:31.199
in yet.
590
00:38:31.519 --> 00:38:34.280
So you know, yeah, and this is you know, usually
591
00:38:34.280 --> 00:38:38.119
you do this at the congressional level, and so you know, nationally,
592
00:38:38.280 --> 00:38:40.840
I don't think there's ever been this much interest in
593
00:38:40.840 --> 00:38:46.440
Indiana Senate Republican primary race. So this is this is
594
00:38:46.559 --> 00:38:53.480
just you know, a fabulous steak sandwich, you know that's
595
00:38:53.519 --> 00:38:56.159
been delivered. I'm going to eat it and then and
596
00:38:56.199 --> 00:38:58.519
then enjoy and see what happens.
597
00:38:58.760 --> 00:39:00.199
Well, what are you going to be looking for with
598
00:39:00.280 --> 00:39:02.480
respect to early vote transfer? Are you going to be
599
00:39:02.559 --> 00:39:03.119
looking at that?
600
00:39:04.199 --> 00:39:10.039
No, the districts are so small, you know, it's there's
601
00:39:10.119 --> 00:39:14.400
no there's no pulling. I'm sure Senate Majority Caucus is polled.
602
00:39:14.800 --> 00:39:17.760
I'm sure McIntosh has been in the field and everything,
603
00:39:17.760 --> 00:39:22.760
but we were not privy to those numbers. So I'm
604
00:39:22.800 --> 00:39:26.239
basically following the money. I'm going to be filing a
605
00:39:26.239 --> 00:39:28.559
column tomorrow for State Affairs in which I'm going to
606
00:39:28.679 --> 00:39:32.079
kind of update where the major donations are. That kind
607
00:39:32.119 --> 00:39:35.079
of tells me that where the Senate Majority campaign is
608
00:39:35.119 --> 00:39:38.559
putting funds. That tells me where they're worried and everything.
609
00:39:38.920 --> 00:39:42.880
And I'm just going to wait and at about eight
610
00:39:42.920 --> 00:39:46.559
o'clock on election night, we should have have some some
611
00:39:46.719 --> 00:39:47.400
verdicts here.
612
00:39:48.639 --> 00:39:52.360
So where can my listeners follow your work more generally?
613
00:39:52.880 --> 00:39:57.119
Yeah, state affairs dot com. The State Affairs is a
614
00:39:58.760 --> 00:40:05.920
new startup company that's basically building out state house bureaus
615
00:40:05.960 --> 00:40:08.039
across the nation. We're in fifteen states.
616
00:40:08.079 --> 00:40:11.719
Now, oh wow, do you have an active social media presence?
617
00:40:12.760 --> 00:40:20.039
I had been on X at Howie at hwypol, But
618
00:40:20.159 --> 00:40:22.960
to tell you the truth, since Elon took it over,
619
00:40:24.320 --> 00:40:28.679
X has just kind of gotten into the gutter. And
620
00:40:27.880 --> 00:40:32.039
I'll tweet out something occasionally, but I'm just not much
621
00:40:32.039 --> 00:40:33.559
of a presence anymore. There.
622
00:40:33.920 --> 00:40:37.239
Okay, so State Affairs dot Com for people won't follow
623
00:40:37.280 --> 00:40:41.400
your take? Will you be live putting up live analysis
624
00:40:41.440 --> 00:40:43.880
on election for at state Affairs dot Com?
625
00:40:44.159 --> 00:40:46.280
Yes? Yeah, well, there we go.
626
00:40:46.599 --> 00:40:48.639
I would love to have you back on the program
627
00:40:48.719 --> 00:40:53.480
perhaps to talk about some of the perhaps that challenge
628
00:40:53.480 --> 00:40:56.000
to Frank Mervan is that how you produce it?
629
00:40:56.079 --> 00:40:56.239
Yeah?
630
00:40:56.280 --> 00:40:59.559
Yeah, Mervan. Although we call mister Van or his father
631
00:40:59.639 --> 00:41:01.440
when he is in the state, was mister Van.
632
00:41:02.719 --> 00:41:04.880
Well, I would love to have you back to deconstruct
633
00:41:04.880 --> 00:41:06.800
this and to talk about that challenge.
634
00:41:07.320 --> 00:41:07.920
Be on the phone.
635
00:41:08.559 --> 00:41:10.159
Excellent, thanks Entry.
636
00:41:17.280 --> 00:41:19.320
Well, we're in the digital age, and one of the
637
00:41:19.320 --> 00:41:23.960
things that the digital age promises us is hyper individualization,
638
00:41:24.079 --> 00:41:26.960
and we see it in our social media feeds is
639
00:41:27.000 --> 00:41:29.840
that the ads that we see are hyper targeted to
640
00:41:30.079 --> 00:41:34.599
various types of presumed interests because of our habits on
641
00:41:34.679 --> 00:41:39.199
social media or demographic information as The way these companies
642
00:41:39.199 --> 00:41:42.599
make money is not as much doing anything to produce
643
00:41:42.679 --> 00:41:45.920
the product. It's the data that they sell to produce
644
00:41:45.960 --> 00:41:49.280
the advertising, or simply the data they sell to companies
645
00:41:49.320 --> 00:41:53.719
that can use it in advertising offs the platform. But
646
00:41:53.800 --> 00:41:56.119
we have yet to see that really come out in
647
00:41:56.159 --> 00:42:00.559
the political sphere. We do see targeted mailers and target ads,
648
00:42:00.599 --> 00:42:04.000
but the sort of hyper individualization that the digital age
649
00:42:04.119 --> 00:42:07.760
affords has not yet been taken advantage of to my
650
00:42:07.960 --> 00:42:12.960
knowledge in the political campaign sphere. But one Democratic leaning group,
651
00:42:13.000 --> 00:42:18.039
Priorities USA, is testing whether or not they can experience that,
652
00:42:18.159 --> 00:42:22.159
and they're using the Ohio Senate race, a challenge that
653
00:42:22.239 --> 00:42:27.079
Democrats are launching to appointed incumbent John Hustead to see
654
00:42:27.079 --> 00:42:29.800
whether this works off. And so what we're going to
655
00:42:29.840 --> 00:42:32.760
take a look at is three different ads, and what
656
00:42:32.840 --> 00:42:35.599
you'll hear as we go through each of them is
657
00:42:36.119 --> 00:42:41.480
the hit. The message is identical. What differs is the
658
00:42:41.519 --> 00:42:45.920
way it's presented. Let's start with the traditional ad.
659
00:42:46.199 --> 00:42:49.400
How many politicians does it take to screw up your light? Built?
660
00:42:49.639 --> 00:42:52.920
Just one? If you choose the right guy. Senator John
661
00:42:53.000 --> 00:42:56.159
Houston got the million dollar backing of First Energy and
662
00:42:56.239 --> 00:42:59.719
help deliver them a billion dollar bailout. Many voter doing
663
00:43:00.159 --> 00:43:03.800
our energy costs, raising utility bills over four hundred bucks
664
00:43:03.800 --> 00:43:06.880
a year. And if you're struggling, John thinks you might
665
00:43:07.079 --> 00:43:08.360
just be not very.
666
00:43:08.400 --> 00:43:11.159
Experienced at navigating the real world.
667
00:43:11.360 --> 00:43:16.039
Putting corporations first in ohioan's last. That's John Houston.
668
00:43:16.960 --> 00:43:19.119
Okay, we've all seen this ad before. I mean not
669
00:43:19.199 --> 00:43:21.840
literally this ad, but this type of ad. It's got
670
00:43:21.840 --> 00:43:25.000
the voiceover, it's got the name on the screen, it's
671
00:43:25.000 --> 00:43:28.599
got the worried woman in the kitchen about the electricity bills.
672
00:43:28.639 --> 00:43:33.119
It even has a visual slam on the Trump administration.
673
00:43:33.199 --> 00:43:35.280
It's got a picture of Houston being sworn in on
674
00:43:35.360 --> 00:43:37.000
the Senate floor by jd.
675
00:43:37.159 --> 00:43:37.519
Vance.
676
00:43:38.079 --> 00:43:41.599
This is the typical attack ad that is going after
677
00:43:41.679 --> 00:43:47.480
Housted for his alleged complicity in bailing out an energy
678
00:43:47.480 --> 00:43:52.159
company that then pass on its costs to the consumers
679
00:43:52.199 --> 00:43:55.679
of Ohio through massively increase energy bills. Okay, so that's
680
00:43:55.719 --> 00:44:00.920
the traditional. Now there's an ad that is focused on
681
00:44:01.039 --> 00:44:06.920
people who've bet on sports apps. Yes, this is if
682
00:44:06.960 --> 00:44:11.320
you played Draft Kings. This is the ad that might
683
00:44:11.400 --> 00:44:13.440
be targeted to you in Ohio.
684
00:44:13.840 --> 00:44:14.480
Let's listen.
685
00:44:14.920 --> 00:44:16.920
Let's take a look at some lines for Senator John
686
00:44:16.960 --> 00:44:19.400
Houston and cook up a parlay. First line is dark
687
00:44:19.440 --> 00:44:21.880
money spending on the Housted campaigns, set at nine hundred
688
00:44:21.920 --> 00:44:24.039
nine nine thousan nine hundred ninety nine dollars, And we'll
689
00:44:24.079 --> 00:44:26.280
be taking the over and the overhits at one million
690
00:44:26.320 --> 00:44:28.599
dollars from First Energy before they were bailed out by
691
00:44:28.599 --> 00:44:31.280
House Bill six, which Shustead fought to pass, costing Ohio
692
00:44:31.360 --> 00:44:34.079
families over six hundred dollars a year on electric bills. Next,
693
00:44:34.159 --> 00:44:36.880
his First Energy bribes paid lines set at fifty nine
694
00:44:36.920 --> 00:44:39.280
million dollars, and we will once again be hammering the
695
00:44:39.320 --> 00:44:43.599
over and the overhits at sixty million dollars. So every overhits.
696
00:44:44.119 --> 00:44:48.400
Unfortunately, you can hear it immediately is you've got a
697
00:44:48.440 --> 00:44:52.000
different snappier tone. The person delivering it is a young
698
00:44:52.079 --> 00:44:55.360
guy with a baseball cap, I presume baseball.
699
00:44:55.360 --> 00:44:57.079
It's a sports cap on backwards.
700
00:44:57.079 --> 00:44:59.400
You don't get to see the team, but you can
701
00:44:59.440 --> 00:45:01.280
see that he he's trying to play up the sports.
702
00:45:01.320 --> 00:45:06.000
He's using words like lines and parlays to try and
703
00:45:06.079 --> 00:45:08.920
get into this is how we think, This is how
704
00:45:08.960 --> 00:45:14.280
we talk about us better to better, And the message
705
00:45:14.360 --> 00:45:18.000
is identical, but they're using a completely different way to
706
00:45:18.119 --> 00:45:21.840
present it, and they're using language that is geared towards
707
00:45:21.880 --> 00:45:26.199
their target audience to deliver it. Then there's another ad
708
00:45:26.239 --> 00:45:29.360
that they're testing. This is one that is focused on
709
00:45:29.360 --> 00:45:33.000
online video gamers. And let's see how this differs from
710
00:45:33.039 --> 00:45:33.559
the other two.
711
00:45:34.880 --> 00:45:37.960
If you play video games, you might have noticed your
712
00:45:37.960 --> 00:45:40.320
power bills are just a wee bit.
713
00:45:40.280 --> 00:45:41.519
Higher these days.
714
00:45:41.840 --> 00:45:45.239
Well, you can thank this guy. Ohio Senator John Houston.
715
00:45:45.559 --> 00:45:48.679
First Energy dropped eight million dollars to get him elected,
716
00:45:48.800 --> 00:45:52.280
and he helped them get a billion dollar bailout which
717
00:45:52.440 --> 00:45:55.639
jacked up our rates. He sides with the power companies
718
00:45:55.679 --> 00:46:00.800
while our bank accounts get cooked. Oh I almost forgot
719
00:46:00.840 --> 00:46:02.599
about the Epstein stuff. But you know we're out of time,
720
00:46:02.639 --> 00:46:04.519
so just google good luck, have fun.
721
00:46:05.800 --> 00:46:08.960
It's very similar. Again, you've got the same message, but
722
00:46:09.119 --> 00:46:11.760
this is again a young guy. But what you do
723
00:46:11.920 --> 00:46:14.559
when you're talking. He's talking about do you play video games?
724
00:46:14.599 --> 00:46:17.880
He's got video game equipment on. He's one of the
725
00:46:17.920 --> 00:46:21.440
people who come on the screen that interacts with him
726
00:46:21.480 --> 00:46:24.159
as somebody who's obviously playing a game. So they're using
727
00:46:24.199 --> 00:46:27.679
a visual to say you and I wear video gamers,
728
00:46:28.000 --> 00:46:30.760
and this is what we need to worry about. They
729
00:46:30.840 --> 00:46:36.079
use very snappy pictures, short words, short sentences. It's a
730
00:46:36.239 --> 00:46:40.519
visual ad as much as a word add unlike the
731
00:46:40.559 --> 00:46:43.039
other ones. And then you've got at the end where
732
00:46:43.039 --> 00:46:45.320
they say, oh, I forgot about the Epstein thing. This
733
00:46:45.440 --> 00:46:47.559
is the one place where the message is a little
734
00:46:47.599 --> 00:46:51.519
bit different, says google it and literally you see putting
735
00:46:51.519 --> 00:46:55.599
in John Houston plus Epstein on a Google screen. Their
736
00:46:55.760 --> 00:47:01.679
research leads them to believe that that short, snappy, video driven,
737
00:47:01.760 --> 00:47:06.639
picture driven approach will drive the message home to video
738
00:47:06.760 --> 00:47:09.920
gamers in a way that may not work with sports
739
00:47:09.920 --> 00:47:12.840
betters and may not work with the rest of the audience.
740
00:47:12.880 --> 00:47:17.079
What Priorities is supposedly doing is testing these different ads
741
00:47:17.079 --> 00:47:19.960
online and seeing whether or not one or the other
742
00:47:20.039 --> 00:47:23.320
has a different response rate among the targeted group. And
743
00:47:23.400 --> 00:47:27.159
if they do, then they can start thinking, okay, well
744
00:47:27.199 --> 00:47:30.000
now we know who video games, or we can run
745
00:47:30.039 --> 00:47:33.000
digital ads for those people we know who vets on sports,
746
00:47:33.119 --> 00:47:37.119
because hey, guess what, somebody's got this information somewhere and
747
00:47:37.239 --> 00:47:40.480
is selling it to somebody. I don't know if this
748
00:47:40.639 --> 00:47:44.119
particular angle is going to work. Some of this is
749
00:47:44.159 --> 00:47:49.039
dependent on not just the ability to identify salient groups,
750
00:47:49.159 --> 00:47:54.320
but also the ability to present a set of content
751
00:47:54.519 --> 00:47:57.519
that they will react to. It may be that a
752
00:47:57.559 --> 00:48:01.920
thirty second add even with a different format, with the
753
00:48:01.960 --> 00:48:05.920
different pictures or the different presenter, isn't what people respond to.
754
00:48:06.679 --> 00:48:10.159
But my guess is that eventually this is going to click.
755
00:48:10.320 --> 00:48:14.480
It would defy what we know about advertising to think
756
00:48:14.519 --> 00:48:19.880
that at some point the people whose lifeblood depends on
757
00:48:20.199 --> 00:48:23.400
this won't figure out a way to use it. And
758
00:48:23.440 --> 00:48:26.360
once you do, then the question is how do you
759
00:48:26.440 --> 00:48:30.639
find the ability to target them? And how much differentiation
760
00:48:30.760 --> 00:48:32.840
do you want to have. I mean, you can imagine
761
00:48:33.079 --> 00:48:37.400
that there's huge differences among very small groups, so that
762
00:48:37.440 --> 00:48:42.039
you can run three hundred types of targeted campaigns simultaneously,
763
00:48:42.840 --> 00:48:45.239
and you'll be allocating a lot more of your budget
764
00:48:45.280 --> 00:48:48.840
to add production than to add purchasing because you won't
765
00:48:48.840 --> 00:48:50.800
be going as much on broadcasts. You'll be doing it
766
00:48:50.960 --> 00:48:55.599
all through digital platforms, and so consequently, the ability to
767
00:48:55.679 --> 00:49:01.039
produce attractive content is going to be more valuable than
768
00:49:01.079 --> 00:49:04.840
the ability to buy mass airtime. We're not there yet,
769
00:49:05.159 --> 00:49:08.639
but this collection of ads from Priorities USA, I think
770
00:49:08.760 --> 00:49:12.239
is giving us a very interesting glimpse into our future
771
00:49:12.400 --> 00:49:15.920
very soon, and that's why they're this week's Ads of
772
00:49:15.960 --> 00:49:19.719
the Week. That's it for this week. Join me again
773
00:49:19.760 --> 00:49:23.280
next week when I'll talk about the Republican senatorial primaries
774
00:49:23.320 --> 00:49:26.159
in Alabama and Kentucky with Cook.
775
00:49:25.920 --> 00:49:27.760
Political Reports Jessica Taylor.
776
00:49:28.320 --> 00:49:31.679
Until then, let's reach for the stars together as we
777
00:49:31.760 --> 00:49:34.039
journey beyond the polls.