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Thank you.
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This week, which also caused a bump in the crypto markets.
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The fight's not quite over yet.
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There are some still some hurdles that we need to get over.
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What is left to get clarity signed by the new date of July 4th?
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It's also layoff season, it seems like.
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Big announcement from Coinbase, laying off 14%
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of its staff.
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But at the same time, we've got fundraise season.
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Two multi-billion dollar VC
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raises deployed directly into crypto.
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What's the counterbalance here?
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What's going to outweigh the
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other?
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Also, David, Michael Saylor, is he selling?
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Did he say that?
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Speaking of raising funds.
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We also have an update on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the US Strategic Reserve, and David,
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Ethereum Layer 1, it might be back, David.
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Okay.
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And that's a thing that you wanted to happen.
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You were talking about scaling the L1.
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I do want the Layer 1 to come back.
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It looks like it's scaling.
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There was a meeting of the devs in the Arctic Circle.
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This is real, actually.
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And out of that comes more ETH scaling.
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We'll talk about all that and more.
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But first, let's get to crypto prices on the week.
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They've been okay, a little bit down at the time of recording.
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What are we looking at?
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Yeah, the morning of recording.
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But really, the week was pretty good for Bitcoin, up 4.5% this week.
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We cleared $80,000 yesterday with confidence.
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We got up to like $82,000 at the peak yesterday.
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A little bit below that at the time of recording, but still overall a good week.
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ETH up 1.2% on the week, a little bit more of a modest week for ETH.
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Like Ryan said, the markets are kind of like coming back a little bit off of its euphoric highs yesterday.
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If you were on Twitter yesterday, there was just green euphoria everywhere.
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Oh, really?
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On your timeline?
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In the trad market, not in the crypto.
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In trad markets.
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In trad markets.
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Well, I do think trad markets are really the story here.
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This chart was really the chart of the week for me.
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This came from the DeFi report, Michael Nadeau.
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And he points out that 2026 is the most correlated Bitcoin has ever been to the NASDAQ.
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This is correlation by year.
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You're seeing a chart here.
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So we are more correlated right now with the NASDAQ on Bitcoin price than we ever have been.
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I have a question for how this chart works.
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If the Nasdaq goes up 1% and Bitcoin only goes up by like a quarter of a percent, but that relationship is consistent, is that still strong correlation?
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Or is it less correlation if Bitcoin is going up any number that's different than how much the Nasdaq went up by?
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Does that make sense?
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No, I'm not sure I understand your question, but a correlation means that obviously Bitcoin price goes up or down related in a correlated way.
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Yeah.
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In this case, the correlation coefficient is-
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I guess my question is like if the magnitudes are different because the NASDAQ is going up more aggressively than Bitcoin is.
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I don't think it measures that.
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But they are still both going up.
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Yeah, this chart doesn't measure that.
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Okay.
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It doesn't measure the magnitude, but it does say when stocks go up, when NASDAQ goes up, Bitcoin follows.
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That is confidently happening.
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Yes.
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And by the way, 2024, the correlation coefficient was 0.1 and now it's 0.48.
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Yeah.
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So this basically means that our destiny is in the stock market's hands right now.
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Does this kind of mean that we're kind of like cucked by AI?
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A little bit.
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It feels like buying Bitcoin right now feels like, at least in 2026, a worse play on the
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NASDAQ at this moment in time.
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It's not going to stay like that, but that's what the regime, that's the regime we're in
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Price exposure to the NASDAQ, but you're not getting as much as returns of the NASDAQ.
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That's right.
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That's a worse NASDAQ?
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I don't like saying that.
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I don't think that will always remain true.
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There were some crypto assets that outperformed.
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Bitcoin's new framing went from digital gold to a worse NASDAQ.
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That's a terrible brand.
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Yeah, you can take that, Michael Saylor.
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Take that and run with it.
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Zcash, a better NASDAQ, though, on the week.
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Dude, what are we looking at?
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Zcash has confidently returned.
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Not breaking all-time highs, but it is up to previous all-time highs.
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$570 for a Zcash.
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For some reason, privacy is just catching a bid, catching a narrative.
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There are some other like down market privacy coins like Railgun that also caught a bid this week.
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Also in the crypto world, VVV, which is Eric Voorhees Venice project, which is private AI.
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So it's both AI and privacy is right in the Venn diagram of where you want to be.
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Market loves that right now.
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Yeah.
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Hitting highs that it hasn't seen since token launch, which I don't even really count as like real price action.
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So $12.75 for a VVV token.
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What's the market cap on BVB right now?
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It's pretty impressive, right?
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Yeah, the market cap, this is not fully diluted, but almost $600 million market cap.
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A billion dollars fully diluted.
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Wow.
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Yeah, and the market cap Zcash right now, $9.4 billion.
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By the way, did you see Multicoin came out and said, we've been buying Zcash for the last couple of months.
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Ever since Kyle left.
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They're into the store value trade.
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Okay, let's talk about stocks for a second because that's the big story.
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let's look at it on your screen david because you're you know i'm the chart guy i'm the chart
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guy so this chart's going all the way back to like december q4 2025 but you can see see the
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bottom of the iran war and god we are just since the very bottom the spy is up 17 percent and that's
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across 39 days which is just nuts last week we were talking about how strong the spy was and it
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hit a record high, a monthly high of 7,200.
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And today we are at 7,360.
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Still strong.
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Not today, but yesterday at the all-time highs.
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NASDAQ's even bigger.
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NASDAQ gained 24% over that same time.
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And so, you know, these are indices.
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That's crazy.
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Can you just pause?
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Over, like, what, almost 40 days, not even 40 days,
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NASDAQ is up 25%?
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Yeah, 26% from peak to trough, trough to peak.
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What?
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That's just gnarly.
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That's gnarly.
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You really have to zoom out pretty far to put it in perspective.
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But the Iran war, it is up double than the Iran war took it down, if that makes sense in terms of size.
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Are there sectors that are winning?
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Remember we were talking about the SaaSpocalypse.
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That's still getting blown away.
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I saw in the Mag7, Google just crushed it in terms of earnings.
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Google briefly took over NVIDIA as the world's most valuable company.
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That is no longer true at the moment of recording.
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nvidia is back on top but google had a big day yesterday so like the sector that is really
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leading the market is semiconductors so semiconductors are up 12 and a half percent
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over the last two weeks yeah which is nuts and so that who is that that's nvidia that's intel
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intel's up 60 over the last two months amd is up big uh so anything that's chip related sandisk is
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putting in a record right like it is the best performing stock over the last 12 months and it's
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all AI related.
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The second best performing sector, Ryan, is infrastructure, industrials.
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And that is a combo of conflict defense companies, but also AI CapEx build out companies.
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So also
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the correct Venn diagram to be in, in this particular moment.
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And those two sectors are
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just leading the market.
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And so really what's happening is AI is dragging the whole entire
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market up in a very big way.
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Industrials is also contributing.
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Financials is a wash,
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like a lot of other stuff is awash.
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And then things like utilities and energy,
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which is down on the week,
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which we'll talk about
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when we get to the Iran war section,
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that's dragging the rest of the market down,
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but it's just like not in any way
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that overshines AI.
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Well, thanks AI for bringing Bitcoin above 80K.
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Corporate earnings were part of the story here, right?
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I mean, what's that like overperformance?
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Was it 84% of all corporate earnings
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this quarter beat analyst estimates?
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So we're in earnings seasons at the moment.
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63% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far this quarter.
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Like you said, 85% of them have beaten earnings.
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And this isn't like they eked out a earnings beat.
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No, they crushed.
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They, like, broadly, they crushed.
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Companies are reporting 20% earnings above estimates on average.
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And also, this marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.
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So, corporate returns, corporate earnings, strong.
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Yeah.
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You know why?
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It's all in the back of AI, right?
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Anthropic is a huge company in this.
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You know, Anthropic locked a deal with SpaceX to get more compute.
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so compute was a limiter.
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I mean, part of this story is,
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I can tell you that my demand for AI tokens is insatiable.
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I'm consuming more tokens than I ever have.
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Oh my God.
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I ran out yesterday for like this fourth or fifth time.
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Fourth or fifth time over what period of time?
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This year, like last month.
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Okay, I am now running out.
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So I do $50 increments.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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I'm running out two to three times a day.
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Dude, you're just pulling out the credit cards,
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like swiping it again.
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well i did my first 250 purchase today because you get on anthropic you get a bigger discount
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the larger you pay yeah so i was like oh i mean no i'm gonna use it but it's uh i don't know if
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it's becoming a problem it's just so damn useful i think i'm channeling it into something that's
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productive yeah i absolutely do but i my demand is insatiable and i gotta think like if the rest
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of the market is doing this as well it's kind of dawning on everyone that this can make them
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more productive, that this can save them time, that this can drive revenue and efficiency.
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Everyone's demand is insatiable.
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That's what's causing all of the overperformance in the AI boom
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here.
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So there's been a ton of conversation of just like the AI bubble, the AI bubble,
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it's all a bubble.
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It's going to come crashing down.
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Anthropic earnings are growth, revenue
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growth is up 80x in Q1.
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That's never happened.
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That was not the dot-com boom.
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What the f, dude?
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80x earnings and year over year growth in revenue and usage in q1 2026 can you say the words this
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time is different like i i don't want to say those words but like this is a different story
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i've never seen this before in markets i mean this goes back to the debate of like
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we did this debate on the on bank list like is ai like normal technology or is it a fundamental
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paradigm shift.
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The thing is- ADX earnings year over year, wild.
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All I can say is just, it's not about reading headlines.
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I think that the closest thing any
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investor can do is look at how they're actually using it.
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And my demand, my use, the utility to me
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has only gone up and to the right.
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And so until that stops happening-
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That's not a narrative.
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This is my lived experience.
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You agree, right?
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I'm not crazy.
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And you see some of the output of like that,
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Some of the ways I'm using it with AI.
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I'm not in some kind of AI psychosis.
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It's useful?
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Is it useful?
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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All right.
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Yeah.
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I mean, so we can actually kind of take a look at
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Anthropix valuation in the market from various derivatives.
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This is on Hyperliquid.
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Anthropix coming in just shy of $1.2 trillion in the private market.
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This is all implied.
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He's not actually trading shares.
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This is a derivative, but it's useful.
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It's directionally useful.
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uh 1.2 trillion as a pre-ipo valuation uh bitcoin is 1.6 trillion what anthropic is almost a bitcoin
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dude what does that is that is bitcoin cheap or is anthropic just that damn good bitcoin is
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definitely cheap what would you buy at this price what would you rather own at this price would you
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rather own at the same price bitcoin and anthropic which seems like you know total market cap is
246
00:12:00.141 --> 00:12:01.751
about the same, which would you rather buy right now?
247
00:12:01.792 --> 00:12:03.160
Oh, that is a really good question.
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00:12:03.700 --> 00:12:09.837
I don't really like, I like buying Bitcoin in trillions because of just what it is.
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Yeah.
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00:12:10.439 --> 00:12:10.459
I
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00:12:10.860 --> 00:12:17.840
don't like buying any equity in trillions unless it's like in a retirement savings context, like
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Google, for example, whatever that is, like 4 trillion.
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But I feel safe with that.
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Well, good
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00:12:22.260 --> 00:12:23.750
news, David, you can't actually buy it, right?
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00:12:23.830 --> 00:12:24.475
You can own a little perp.
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00:12:24.495 --> 00:12:24.917
Yeah, right.
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Why are you
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00:12:25.320 --> 00:12:26.747
even bothering me with this question.
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00:12:27.350 --> 00:12:28.053
But it's private.
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00:12:28.094 --> 00:12:29.360
You get none of this until they go
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00:12:29.440 --> 00:12:32.371
public and they IPO on retail, dump on retail.
263
00:12:32.612 --> 00:12:34.619
So the question is, is all of this getting a
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00:12:34.800 --> 00:12:36.024
little bit too frothy?
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00:12:36.144 --> 00:12:38.492
There are definitely some people who say yes.
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00:12:38.552 --> 00:12:40.378
So this is a tweet from Jason
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00:12:41.201 --> 00:12:41.743
Goepfert.
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00:12:42.024 --> 00:12:42.747
Is that how you say his name?
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00:12:43.129 --> 00:12:43.590
Goepfert?
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00:12:43.831 --> 00:12:44.012
Sure.
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00:12:44.072 --> 00:12:44.293
Okay.
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00:12:44.574 --> 00:12:46.080
He said, today will be the second
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consecutive day the S&P 500 closes at a record high with more than 4% of its stocks hitting 52
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00:12:53.300 --> 00:12:53.942
week lows.
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00:12:54.203 --> 00:12:55.587
Okay, so two data points here.
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Second day, the S&P closes record high with more than
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00:12:59.760 --> 00:13:02.067
4% of its stocks hitting 52 week lows.
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00:13:02.108 --> 00:13:06.080
And he says, anyone want to guess the only other time
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00:13:06.140 --> 00:13:07.484
in 100 years this has happened?
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00:13:07.865 --> 00:13:13.520
And there's a book called 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin in the tweet.
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00:13:14.221 --> 00:13:15.203
What's the point he's making?
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00:13:15.324 --> 00:13:20.880
I think I would be more scared if all equities were going up
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00:13:20.960 --> 00:13:24.880
into the right, but if some equities are going up into the right and up or going down, to me,
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00:13:24.940 --> 00:13:27.872
that's like, yes, that's how the market ought to work.
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00:13:28.253 --> 00:13:30.020
Somebody is clearly being rational somewhere.
286
00:13:31.060 --> 00:13:36.340
I feel like this is just maybe two data points that he found on 1929 that are mapped to today.
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00:13:36.501 --> 00:13:37.577
You can do a lot with two data points.
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00:13:38.900 --> 00:13:42.475
But, okay, there are other better, let's say, bear cases.
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00:13:42.756 --> 00:13:43.780
One is just like, we know what's
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00:13:43.820 --> 00:13:46.287
happening with US federal debt, don't we?
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00:13:46.889 --> 00:13:48.735
This has got to hit us.
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00:13:49.136 --> 00:13:50.440
I saw last week, David, that
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this is the first time since 1946.
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You remember what happened in 1946?
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00:13:57.260 --> 00:13:57.700
Yeah, I was there.
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00:13:58.281 --> 00:13:58.942
Yeah, okay.
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00:13:59.424 --> 00:14:01.530
In one of David's previous lives.
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00:14:01.891 --> 00:14:03.155
The US had just fought a war.
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00:14:03.716 --> 00:14:05.020
And so all the war bonds,
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00:14:05.120 --> 00:14:10.400
all the debt, we just passed the federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP, 100%.
301
00:14:11.383 --> 00:14:13.135
And the only time we've ever been higher was 1946.
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00:14:14.480 --> 00:14:17.860
So that just means that the government owes the public a lot of money?
303
00:14:19.148 --> 00:14:19.559
That's right.
304
00:14:20.120 --> 00:14:22.560
The government debt has never been higher is what that means.
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00:14:22.840 --> 00:14:24.279
We're at wartime level debts.
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00:14:25.041 --> 00:14:30.820
The level of debt that it took to go defeat Hitler and the Nazis, that's the level of debt we're in right now.
307
00:14:32.046 --> 00:14:32.939
And look, look at this.
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00:14:33.120 --> 00:14:37.460
We did this in 2000, the year 2000, which is in our lifetimes.
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00:14:38.085 --> 00:14:38.490
We were at 31%.
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00:14:39.340 --> 00:14:40.199
Okay.
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00:14:40.380 --> 00:14:46.600
So since the year 2000, we went to 100% of federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP.
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00:14:47.721 --> 00:14:49.079
What did we spend it all on?
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00:14:49.200 --> 00:14:50.100
What did we do with all that money?
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00:14:50.501 --> 00:14:51.300
What did we get out of that?
315
00:14:51.341 --> 00:14:52.379
I mean, there were some wars.
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00:14:52.660 --> 00:14:56.300
It wasn't a World War II, but where else did it go?
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00:14:56.601 --> 00:14:57.300
Yeah, I don't know, man.
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00:14:57.626 --> 00:14:57.777
Okay.
319
00:14:58.020 --> 00:14:58.680
That's a good question.
320
00:14:59.281 --> 00:15:00.100
That's the debt story.
321
00:15:00.300 --> 00:15:02.760
You also have firms like Berkshire Hathaway.
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00:15:03.320 --> 00:15:07.097
They have announced their cash balance is now up to a record, almost $400 billion.
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00:15:08.421 --> 00:15:13.200
They are aggressively selling into the market, which is what they do when markets go up.
324
00:15:13.400 --> 00:15:14.600
Markets go up, Berkshire sells.
325
00:15:14.760 --> 00:15:16.420
Markets go up even more, they sell even more.
326
00:15:16.741 --> 00:15:18.660
But like there is an acceleration here.
327
00:15:19.160 --> 00:15:22.340
Look, this is the 14th consecutive net quarterly sale.
328
00:15:23.682 --> 00:15:24.860
14 consecutive sales.
329
00:15:24.980 --> 00:15:26.659
They've been selling into this market for a while.
330
00:15:27.382 --> 00:15:29.416
And the cash on reserve they have is above 30%.
331
00:15:30.102 --> 00:15:31.760
This is Warren Buffett.
332
00:15:31.840 --> 00:15:33.100
This is what he says about the market.
333
00:15:33.140 --> 00:15:34.020
I want to play this for you, David.
334
00:15:34.461 --> 00:15:35.779
What does this feel like to you?
335
00:15:36.263 --> 00:15:37.280
Does it feel expensive?
336
00:15:37.760 --> 00:15:40.120
Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places?
337
00:15:40.160 --> 00:15:48.240
It feels like, you know, I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached.
338
00:15:49.542 --> 00:15:52.260
And people can move between the church and casino.
339
00:15:52.841 --> 00:15:56.680
And I would say there are more people in the church and more people in the casino.
340
00:15:57.242 --> 00:15:59.540
But the casino has gotten very attractive to people.
341
00:16:00.020 --> 00:16:03.520
The casino has gotten very attractive to people, is what Buffett says.
342
00:16:03.580 --> 00:16:05.360
This is the reason for their cash position.
343
00:16:06.020 --> 00:16:06.820
Stocks are not cheap.
344
00:16:06.920 --> 00:16:13.000
He said in his 60 years of investing, there's only been about five years that felt inexpensive
345
00:16:13.264 --> 00:16:14.020
to him and cheap.
346
00:16:14.140 --> 00:16:15.900
So he is absolutely playing the long game.
347
00:16:16.000 --> 00:16:17.760
Does not like the price of stocks right now.
348
00:16:18.180 --> 00:16:19.839
Does he have time left to play the long game?
349
00:16:20.645 --> 00:16:21.520
He's a legend, dude.
350
00:16:22.120 --> 00:16:23.052
Warren Buffett is 95 years old.
351
00:16:23.760 --> 00:16:25.920
Imagine being as coherent as that at 95.
352
00:16:29.440 --> 00:16:30.660
Look, he's built a legacy.
353
00:16:30.920 --> 00:16:32.878
Berkshire, he's playing the long game.
354
00:16:33.300 --> 00:16:35.100
But like, yeah, legendary investor.
355
00:16:35.403 --> 00:16:37.180
So, I mean, what do you think?
356
00:16:37.540 --> 00:16:42.880
Are we frothy or like, is the AI token demand insatiable?
357
00:16:42.980 --> 00:16:44.139
Is that going to pull everything else up?
358
00:16:44.301 --> 00:16:45.780
I'm not one to play the long game.
359
00:16:46.841 --> 00:16:48.180
I'm one to be in the market.
360
00:16:49.722 --> 00:16:50.600
That is the long game.
361
00:16:51.160 --> 00:16:51.918
What are you talking about?
362
00:16:52.163 --> 00:16:52.440
I guess.
363
00:16:52.701 --> 00:16:58.460
But he's selling because he's like, these are expensive and I'm going to wait for these things to be cheaper.
364
00:16:59.161 --> 00:17:03.020
And I'm in, we are in unprecedented times.
365
00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:04.700
AI is novel and unique.
366
00:17:04.700 --> 00:17:05.499
You're scared to be out.
367
00:17:05.761 --> 00:17:06.420
I'm scared to be out.
368
00:17:06.500 --> 00:17:08.260
I'm always scared to be out.
369
00:17:08.401 --> 00:17:09.172
I don't want cash.
370
00:17:10.060 --> 00:17:10.911
I want country.
371
00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:12.460
Well, why would you want cash?
372
00:17:12.946 --> 00:17:13.900
Look at the cash chart.
373
00:17:13.920 --> 00:17:15.260
Look at the debt to GDP.
374
00:17:15.580 --> 00:17:15.740
Yeah, man.
375
00:17:16.163 --> 00:17:16.798
I understand that.
376
00:17:17.002 --> 00:17:17.699
I understand that too.
377
00:17:17.940 --> 00:17:18.060
Yeah.
378
00:17:18.712 --> 00:17:18.920
All right.
379
00:17:19.020 --> 00:17:21.620
Well, we'll have to see how this all plays out.
380
00:17:21.660 --> 00:17:22.780
But what about Iran?
381
00:17:22.881 --> 00:17:23.660
What's going on there?
382
00:17:23.952 --> 00:17:24.140
Yeah.
383
00:17:24.941 --> 00:17:28.420
Both not a lot and something at least somewhat notable.
384
00:17:29.080 --> 00:17:33.840
And so Monday, Trump announced Project Freedom, which is basically an attempt to open the
385
00:17:33.900 --> 00:17:35.486
the Strait of Hormuz by brute force.
386
00:17:35.566 --> 00:17:39.220
He said that the U.S. will just manually guide and protect
387
00:17:39.320 --> 00:17:40.948
ships to assist them in crossing the strait.
388
00:17:41.692 --> 00:17:43.038
Iran, of course, didn't like that.
389
00:17:43.099 --> 00:17:43.360
They really
390
00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:44.667
depend on the strait being closed.
391
00:17:44.848 --> 00:17:47.080
So they sent missiles and drones towards the U.S. Navy,
392
00:17:47.240 --> 00:17:48.444
which the Navy intercepted.
393
00:17:48.464 --> 00:17:52.860
Iran also sent missiles and drones to strike a UAE oil facility.
394
00:17:53.121 --> 00:17:58.720
One actually did land and cause a fire, which I think is what might have caused Trump to put a
395
00:17:58.840 --> 00:18:02.070
pause on Project Freedom just less than 48 hours later.
396
00:18:03.094 --> 00:18:05.080
He said that we are now back to talking
397
00:18:05.301 --> 00:18:09.377
in Pakistan to get a deal done with Iran, which is basically where we stand now.
398
00:18:09.578 --> 00:18:10.120
After a quick
399
00:18:10.220 --> 00:18:14.419
skirmish in the straight, we are now back to pausing while a deal is potentially being
400
00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:16.125
formulated and discussed.
401
00:18:16.246 --> 00:18:20.340
And so it seems nothing has really changed this week in Iran's trade
402
00:18:20.420 --> 00:18:21.465
over moves still closed.
403
00:18:21.585 --> 00:18:22.991
We are still talking about a deal.
404
00:18:23.011 --> 00:18:24.799
The deal is being dangled in front
405
00:18:25.040 --> 00:18:27.300
of investors by Trump as it is every single week.
406
00:18:27.688 --> 00:18:27.855
Okay.
407
00:18:28.200 --> 00:18:32.960
I'll kind of propose that like, even though nothing's really changed, something kind of
408
00:18:33.041 --> 00:18:34.300
has fundamentally changed.
409
00:18:34.482 --> 00:18:34.840
What's that?
410
00:18:35.100 --> 00:18:37.760
And that is oil is down big this week.
411
00:18:37.804 --> 00:18:37.938
Sure.
412
00:18:38.321 --> 00:18:41.800
Oil is down 15%, 15 to 18%, depending on where you look.
413
00:18:42.245 --> 00:18:42.417
Why?
414
00:18:43.726 --> 00:18:44.418
Because it is.
415
00:18:44.881 --> 00:18:45.980
Because, yeah, I don't know.
416
00:18:46.101 --> 00:18:46.658
I don't know why.
417
00:18:46.900 --> 00:18:47.479
It just is.
418
00:18:47.762 --> 00:18:48.480
And that's important.
419
00:18:48.801 --> 00:18:54.660
And so if oil is down 15% and 18% respectively between WTI and Brent, that's really good
420
00:18:54.742 --> 00:18:55.660
for the global economy.
421
00:18:55.800 --> 00:18:57.440
So pain is being felt less.
422
00:18:58.462 --> 00:19:00.574
10-year yields down 2.7% over the week.
423
00:19:01.921 --> 00:19:04.120
Also great for the United States
424
00:19:04.322 --> 00:19:05.880
not experiencing as much pain.
425
00:19:06.260 --> 00:19:09.160
And so where did we leave things off last week?
426
00:19:09.240 --> 00:19:10.158
It's like, oh, this is a-
427
00:19:10.240 --> 00:19:11.180
It's a pain tolerance game.
428
00:19:11.220 --> 00:19:11.880
It's pain tolerance.
429
00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:14.900
And with the equities at all time high,
430
00:19:15.080 --> 00:19:16.860
yields down and oil down,
431
00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:17.260
all of a sudden-
432
00:19:17.260 --> 00:19:18.300
Trump feels less pain.
433
00:19:18.600 --> 00:19:21.240
The Iran is still feeling all of the same pain
434
00:19:21.281 --> 00:19:22.040
that it was prior
435
00:19:22.040 --> 00:19:23.520
because they're isolated and cut off.
436
00:19:23.561 --> 00:19:25.100
and the rest of the world is feeling less pain.
437
00:19:25.400 --> 00:19:26.220
And so that's what's changed.
438
00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:29.078
Well, I guess we'll check in on the week to week pain level.
439
00:19:29.380 --> 00:19:30.979
We'll check in on where the pain pendulum shifts next week.
440
00:19:31.761 --> 00:19:34.800
And just checking in on the polymarket that we usually do.
441
00:19:34.960 --> 00:19:40.678
So the odds of a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by June 30th,
442
00:19:41.420 --> 00:19:42.440
which, man, that's coming right up.
443
00:19:42.500 --> 00:19:42.939
We're almost there.
444
00:19:43.242 --> 00:19:44.860
It's 53%, so it's still pretty high.
445
00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:47.235
By the end of the year, 74% on polymarket.
446
00:19:48.200 --> 00:19:50.810
Notably, the June 30th date, 55%, as you said, is up 14% week over week.
447
00:19:53.381 --> 00:19:55.680
So a big green jump in that over the week.
448
00:19:56.240 --> 00:19:56.300
Okay.
449
00:19:56.480 --> 00:19:59.380
Well, I mean, Polymarket knows things that we don't somehow.
450
00:19:59.881 --> 00:20:03.800
So I'm sure that's a good sign for this being ended a little bit sooner.
451
00:20:04.661 --> 00:20:09.160
David, we got more to talk about, which is when will the Clarity Act actually happen?
452
00:20:09.240 --> 00:20:10.615
We have a date of July 4th.
453
00:20:11.540 --> 00:20:12.960
What's the probability that we hit that?
454
00:20:13.461 --> 00:20:17.480
Also, did the banks win that deal or did we get what we wanted out of it?
455
00:20:17.960 --> 00:20:19.780
Coinbase layoffs, we'll talk about that.
456
00:20:19.800 --> 00:20:27.160
And Saylor on the record, he said this, he intends possibly to sell Bitcoin in order to pay a dividend.
457
00:20:27.482 --> 00:20:28.296
But he used the S word sell.
458
00:20:28.560 --> 00:20:30.000
A sentence never uttered before by Michael Saylor.
459
00:20:30.502 --> 00:20:30.744
Yes.
460
00:20:30.804 --> 00:20:31.833
What does it all mean?
461
00:20:31.873 --> 00:20:32.680
We'll get to all that more.
462
00:20:33.040 --> 00:20:36.160
But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
463
00:20:36.540 --> 00:20:40.360
You would have never thought two years ago that you could soon be trading tokenized oil on MetaMask.
464
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prediction markets, and even, yes, you can gaseously swap between crypto tokens across
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networks too.
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There's advanced security features like MEV and front-run protection, and even a debit
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card so you can actually spend your crypto directly at merchants all around the world.
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Check out the new MetaMask.
476
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It's already on your phone or in the link below.
477
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Quick shout out to OKEx.
478
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They are live in the States building the new money app and Wall Street is taking notice.
479
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The parent company of the NYSE just invested at a $25 billion valuation and took a board seat.
480
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That's the New York Stock Exchange coming to crypto, not the other way around.
481
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And why OKEx?
482
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It's the only app combining a full centralized exchange and self-custody wallet in one place.
483
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and an infrastructure that processes trillions in transactions
488
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489
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OKEx users are set to get tokenized New York Stock Exchange stocks
490
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and derivatives later this year.
491
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492
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Head to the link in the show notes, download OKEx,
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and see why it's the NYSE's go-to for going bankless in the United States.
494
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Not investment advice, services not available in New York and Texas.
495
00:22:11.660 --> 00:22:13.900
What's something you're actually looking forward to next month?
496
00:22:14.001 --> 00:22:15.640
because Coinbase is doing something interesting.
497
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516
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518
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519
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The Clarity Act got over a big hurdle this last week.
520
00:23:10.720 --> 00:23:15.260
we had a tweet from Senator Tom Tillis, who is one of the main senators pushing this forward.
521
00:23:15.981 --> 00:23:19.234
He tweeted out, we have worked in good faith and all sides.
522
00:23:19.696 --> 00:23:20.820
The result is a substantially
523
00:23:21.001 --> 00:23:22.806
improved consensus based product.
524
00:23:23.007 --> 00:23:26.940
Our compromise prohibits stablecoin rewards from resembling
525
00:23:27.161 --> 00:23:28.785
interest on bank deposits.
526
00:23:29.588 --> 00:23:31.674
Our core concern over deposit flight.
527
00:23:32.135 --> 00:23:33.840
Some in the banking industry may
528
00:23:33.981 --> 00:23:35.708
not want either of these things to happen.
529
00:23:35.808 --> 00:23:37.957
And we respectfully agree to disagree.
530
00:23:38.037 --> 00:23:38.760
But nonetheless,
531
00:23:38.760 --> 00:23:39.041
less.
532
00:23:40.024 --> 00:23:41.830
There seems to have been a compromise.
533
00:23:42.432 --> 00:23:43.536
We'll talk about the nuances there.
534
00:23:44.118 --> 00:23:44.880
But then we also
535
00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:49.332
have a date, a target date for signing by July 4th.
536
00:23:49.754 --> 00:23:52.020
And so we're not there yet, but that is kind
537
00:23:52.020 --> 00:23:52.945
of this- The 4th of July, really?
538
00:23:53.146 --> 00:23:53.991
Yeah, the 4th of July.
539
00:23:54.031 --> 00:23:55.720
Yeah, that is the date being projected
540
00:23:55.981 --> 00:24:01.120
and like, hey guys, everyone rally, get the troops, get the last bits of things debated on
541
00:24:01.301 --> 00:24:03.388
because we want this signed by July 4th.
542
00:24:04.211 --> 00:24:06.680
And so we're over this one potential hurdle.
543
00:24:07.700 --> 00:24:10.200
Well, where we left things, it was all about yield, right?
544
00:24:10.480 --> 00:24:13.400
And the banks wanted their yields back.
545
00:24:13.620 --> 00:24:18.940
They realized that they forgot to negotiate harder over the genius bill last week.
546
00:24:19.000 --> 00:24:20.320
And so they wanted kind of a do-over.
547
00:24:20.460 --> 00:24:24.780
And they didn't like the fact that Coinbase and other crypto exchanges could essentially
548
00:24:25.343 --> 00:24:27.858
give their users depositors stablecoin yield.
549
00:24:28.160 --> 00:24:29.460
Yeah, in a roundabout way.
550
00:24:29.560 --> 00:24:36.340
In our mind, the bankless take here has always been, look, guys, the banks are just taking
551
00:24:36.420 --> 00:24:36.903
the yield.
552
00:24:37.003 --> 00:24:39.214
They're trying to protect their monopoly interest.
553
00:24:39.315 --> 00:24:40.300
They don't have any good
554
00:24:40.461 --> 00:24:42.950
reason for keeping monopoly over that yield.
555
00:24:43.391 --> 00:24:44.496
And that remains true.
556
00:24:44.676 --> 00:24:45.700
This is why previously
557
00:24:45.881 --> 00:24:48.588
Coinbase backed out of the negotiation.
558
00:24:49.170 --> 00:24:52.379
Still, they are a powerful lobby group in DC.
559
00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:52.780
And in
560
00:24:52.860 --> 00:24:57.477
order to get things done, apparently you have to appease the banks in some way.
561
00:24:57.838 --> 00:24:58.340
So there was
562
00:24:58.440 --> 00:25:03.458
a compromise that seemed to have been reached over the stablecoin yield issue.
563
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:04.120
It's somewhat
564
00:25:04.220 --> 00:25:04.923
nuanced though.
565
00:25:05.806 --> 00:25:09.440
We'll have to talk about who really won the issue, but what are the details
566
00:25:09.540 --> 00:25:09.741
here?
567
00:25:10.323 --> 00:25:15.260
So Faryar, the chief policy officer over at Coinbase, he tweeted out, in the end, the banks
568
00:25:15.320 --> 00:25:20.159
were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters, the ability for
569
00:25:20.400 --> 00:25:25.817
Americans to earn rewards based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks.
570
00:25:25.857 --> 00:25:26.680
And so big asterisk
571
00:25:26.740 --> 00:25:28.831
there, big, like that's the compromise here.
572
00:25:29.093 --> 00:25:29.716
Wait, what is that?
573
00:25:29.736 --> 00:25:30.520
Can you go over that again?
574
00:25:30.741 --> 00:25:37.260
So if the stable coins are just sitting there, they can't provide rewards.
575
00:25:37.380 --> 00:25:44.440
But if the stable coins are being used in some way, then possibly there's a backdoor to provide rewards to users.
576
00:25:44.743 --> 00:25:44.860
Yeah.
577
00:25:44.960 --> 00:25:47.920
So Alex Thorne, the tweet from Alex Thorne is probably most helpful here.
578
00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:50.740
He's the one who drilled right into the actual verbiage.
579
00:25:51.420 --> 00:25:59.240
He said, stable coin yield cannot be paid solely in connection with holding is the words.
580
00:25:59.701 --> 00:26:05.800
So idle balances or in a manner economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposits.
581
00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:12.400
And so I think that wording is like, if it looks like a bank deposit, you can't pay yield.
582
00:26:12.640 --> 00:26:13.480
I wonder what that means.
583
00:26:13.840 --> 00:26:18.760
So if it's probably if it's just on Coinbase sitting in a custody custodial Coinbase account.
584
00:26:18.900 --> 00:26:27.040
If you're doing set and forget behavior, I think the banks will then argue that that is like a bank deposit and you cannot pay yield on that.
585
00:26:27.341 --> 00:26:30.252
What if the stable coins are on base in DeFi or something like that?
586
00:26:30.292 --> 00:26:32.560
That does not look like bank deposits.
587
00:26:32.680 --> 00:26:34.159
Yeah, that doesn't look like bank deposits.
588
00:26:34.800 --> 00:26:34.940
Right?
589
00:26:35.440 --> 00:26:35.620
Yeah.
590
00:26:35.761 --> 00:26:38.685
I mean, I think this is where it gets very squishy.
591
00:26:39.687 --> 00:26:47.860
And so what is banned in Section 404, this is the section we're talking about, covered parties paying interest or yield to U.S. customers solely for holding stable coins.
592
00:26:48.000 --> 00:26:58.600
What's allowed is, these are the words, activity-based or transaction-based rewards, payments, transfers, market-making, staking, governance, or loyalty programs.
593
00:26:59.400 --> 00:27:08.460
And this will get updated within one year by the SEC, CFTC, or Treasury joint rulemaking about more clarity around that.
594
00:27:08.480 --> 00:27:12.060
Oh, the SEC and CFTC and Treasury get to jointly rulemake.
595
00:27:12.260 --> 00:27:12.581
Yes.
596
00:27:12.682 --> 00:27:18.457
And so this issue is in some way kind of being punted, but with a pretty clear flag
597
00:27:19.561 --> 00:27:24.740
planting by the banks saying, if it looks like a bank and it quacks like a bank, you guys don't
598
00:27:24.800 --> 00:27:25.704
get to pay yields.
599
00:27:26.366 --> 00:27:29.820
But then there are these words, activity-based, transaction-based rewards,
600
00:27:30.260 --> 00:27:33.874
payment transfers, market making, staking, governance, loyalty programs.
601
00:27:34.115 --> 00:27:34.597
And then within
602
00:27:35.781 --> 00:27:39.635
one year, the SEC and CFTC and Treasury will do joint rulemaking.
603
00:27:39.755 --> 00:27:41.000
Which by the way, those are our
604
00:27:41.100 --> 00:27:41.401
guys.
605
00:27:41.682 --> 00:27:42.425
Those are our guys.
606
00:27:42.585 --> 00:27:44.913
Right now they're very crypto friendly, right?
607
00:27:44.954 --> 00:27:45.134
Yeah.
608
00:27:45.395 --> 00:27:45.676
Okay.
609
00:27:45.756 --> 00:27:46.780
So that's why
610
00:27:46.940 --> 00:27:51.780
Coinbase must have thought that this is a compromise that they could somewhat deal with.
611
00:27:52.061 --> 00:27:52.482
Okay.
612
00:27:52.563 --> 00:27:57.580
So my understanding though, is that this issue is kind of closed, but not all the way
613
00:27:57.660 --> 00:27:58.061
closed.
614
00:27:58.342 --> 00:28:04.180
There was a report from Eleanor Tarrant that banking trade groups plan to actually revamp
615
00:28:04.280 --> 00:28:07.171
and ramp up outreach to additional members in the coming days.
616
00:28:07.773 --> 00:28:09.519
And so they're not quite sure that
617
00:28:09.720 --> 00:28:10.894
this is enough of a closure.
618
00:28:11.380 --> 00:28:13.479
I think what they're doing is they're kind of just
619
00:28:13.802 --> 00:28:15.760
like may drawing the lines,
620
00:28:16.000 --> 00:28:17.620
but then also punting the fight.
621
00:28:18.360 --> 00:28:18.540
Okay.
622
00:28:18.881 --> 00:28:21.240
And so there's like, yeah, no idle yield.
623
00:28:21.380 --> 00:28:23.000
If it looks like a bank deposit, you can't do it.
624
00:28:23.201 --> 00:28:25.180
But then also we're going to give this up
625
00:28:25.200 --> 00:28:26.120
for interpretation later,
626
00:28:26.280 --> 00:28:29.100
which is why it feels like we kind of got over the hurdle
627
00:28:29.763 --> 00:28:32.820
by simply moving the hurdle to a different place.
628
00:28:33.446 --> 00:28:33.739
I see.
629
00:28:33.900 --> 00:28:36.260
Now regulators get to decide if you have crypto friendly,
630
00:28:36.380 --> 00:28:37.020
they might do that.
631
00:28:37.100 --> 00:28:38.900
If you have anti-crypto, they might do that.
632
00:28:39.043 --> 00:28:39.740
Wow, that's fun.
633
00:28:39.860 --> 00:28:41.840
Okay, so did the banks win in your mind?
634
00:28:42.801 --> 00:28:43.860
It's TBD, dude.
635
00:28:44.283 --> 00:28:44.631
It is TBD.
636
00:28:45.400 --> 00:28:47.880
Partially because they got their line in the sand.
637
00:28:48.321 --> 00:28:50.680
As in like you can't just have naive bank deposits,
638
00:28:50.780 --> 00:28:52.620
which is kind of what I was excited about.
639
00:28:52.760 --> 00:28:56.840
Like going bankless, doing like taking banking away from the banks,
640
00:28:56.920 --> 00:28:57.620
like all this kind of stuff.
641
00:28:58.721 --> 00:29:01.860
The simple path to get there seems to be closed.
642
00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:03.360
Well, maybe it's still there for you, David.
643
00:29:03.360 --> 00:29:08.620
The creative, complex, a little bit convoluted path definitely still open.
644
00:29:09.061 --> 00:29:11.920
Yeah, like if it's on base, for instance, and it's being used in DeFi.
645
00:29:11.920 --> 00:29:14.520
What does loyalty participation look like?
646
00:29:14.822 --> 00:29:15.740
I mean, you look pretty loyal.
647
00:29:15.880 --> 00:29:16.300
You're a pretty loyal guy.
648
00:29:16.381 --> 00:29:17.620
Yeah, I look loyal.
649
00:29:18.763 --> 00:29:20.240
I'll press a button every now and then.
650
00:29:20.401 --> 00:29:21.417
Remember to claim your rewards.
651
00:29:21.721 --> 00:29:22.955
I'll be as loyal as you want for 4%.
652
00:29:24.044 --> 00:29:26.520
And now you get your hand and also vote on something, you know?
653
00:29:27.120 --> 00:29:27.400
That's right.
654
00:29:27.521 --> 00:29:27.840
That's right.
655
00:29:27.900 --> 00:29:28.054
Okay.
656
00:29:28.381 --> 00:29:30.620
There's still some stuff left to do here, though.
657
00:29:31.080 --> 00:29:34.880
You remember the developer in DeFi protections that was kind of baked into earlier versions?
658
00:29:35.041 --> 00:29:37.100
It was called the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
659
00:29:37.421 --> 00:29:38.846
care a lot about this.
660
00:29:38.906 --> 00:29:40.250
Coin centers talked about this.
661
00:29:40.972 --> 00:29:42.999
That is still a little TBD.
662
00:29:43.019 --> 00:29:43.360
They're going
663
00:29:43.360 --> 00:29:45.248
to have some negotiations about it this week.
664
00:29:45.288 --> 00:29:48.100
It doesn't seem so contentious, but if we got that
665
00:29:48.160 --> 00:29:50.428
in clarity bill, that's a huge win.
666
00:29:50.528 --> 00:29:52.335
So still crossing our fingers on that.
667
00:29:52.776 --> 00:29:53.740
And also this
668
00:29:53.841 --> 00:29:56.316
might actually be the thing that derails the entire clarity bill.
669
00:29:56.337 --> 00:29:56.880
Yeah, all of this might
670
00:29:56.920 --> 00:29:57.924
be just for nothing.
671
00:29:58.346 --> 00:30:00.293
The ethics provision, David.
672
00:30:00.394 --> 00:30:02.020
What's the ethics provision, Ryan?
673
00:30:02.020 --> 00:30:07.340
There are some senators that are hardlining on Trump's, the Trump family crypto activity.
674
00:30:08.482 --> 00:30:12.380
The White House is basically saying, hey, like there can't be conflict of interest here.
675
00:30:12.700 --> 00:30:16.320
You have to tone down the world liberty finance, probably all of these things.
676
00:30:16.420 --> 00:30:16.580
Right.
677
00:30:16.920 --> 00:30:20.780
And the White House says it's not going to accept any language like this because, of
678
00:30:20.840 --> 00:30:23.400
course, the president doesn't want to be individually singled out.
679
00:30:23.900 --> 00:30:30.140
So this is another thing that requires a different type of compromise in order for the Clarity
680
00:30:30.284 --> 00:30:30.840
Act to go through.
681
00:30:31.083 --> 00:30:32.439
It might derail the whole thing.
682
00:30:33.300 --> 00:30:39.779
Polymarket, David, has shot up, though, to a probability of, at the time of recording, mid-60s.
683
00:30:40.520 --> 00:30:43.114
So it got as high as almost 70% in terms of Clarity Acting.
684
00:30:44.743 --> 00:30:47.480
It was down like 45% not terribly long ago.
685
00:30:47.683 --> 00:30:47.999
It was.
686
00:30:48.120 --> 00:30:50.198
I mean, just last week it was down in that.
687
00:30:50.780 --> 00:30:51.767
So we went from 46% to 66%.
688
00:30:54.052 --> 00:30:54.199
Yep.
689
00:30:54.504 --> 00:30:54.680
Yep.
690
00:30:54.840 --> 00:30:55.920
So this is pretty good.
691
00:30:56.141 --> 00:30:56.820
I like these odds.
692
00:30:56.920 --> 00:30:57.479
It's much better.
693
00:30:57.600 --> 00:30:58.560
It's better than a coin flip.
694
00:30:59.065 --> 00:31:00.540
And I think it's pretty accurate.
695
00:31:00.783 --> 00:31:02.399
So we'll hope for that.
696
00:31:03.021 --> 00:31:07.540
Dude, the real question is, what are the odds that Donald Trump refuses to budge?
697
00:31:07.560 --> 00:31:09.400
He's like, no, I like my grifting.
698
00:31:10.304 --> 00:31:11.519
Don't take my grifting away from me.
699
00:31:12.524 --> 00:31:12.840
I don't know.
700
00:31:12.940 --> 00:31:18.200
Maybe he'll have some sort of grift loophole still, you know, just if he's actively grifting.
701
00:31:18.260 --> 00:31:19.100
Based on loyalty rewards.
702
00:31:19.781 --> 00:31:20.210
Based on loyalty.
703
00:31:22.603 --> 00:31:24.920
There were some layoffs this week from Coinbase as well.
704
00:31:25.240 --> 00:31:26.790
They let go of 14% of their staff.
705
00:31:28.480 --> 00:31:33.780
At the same time, we have two pretty large multi-billion dollar VC raises.
706
00:31:33.960 --> 00:31:34.679
Tell us about this.
707
00:31:35.100 --> 00:31:38.380
Yeah, so this is actually kind of a market cycle right of passage.
708
00:31:38.600 --> 00:31:42.040
Coinbase has laid off employees at the bottom of every single cycle.
709
00:31:42.260 --> 00:31:43.194
I remember this happening in 2018.
710
00:31:43.880 --> 00:31:44.654
This happened in 2022.
711
00:31:45.220 --> 00:31:46.434
And now this is happening again in 2026.
712
00:31:47.180 --> 00:31:48.570
As you said, 14% workforce reduction.
713
00:31:50.440 --> 00:31:55.179
Talked about AI saying like we're rebuilding the company to be less layered.
714
00:31:55.700 --> 00:32:03.780
So five maximum layers from Brian down to the bottom, whatever you call it, the bottom of the org chart, five layers max.
715
00:32:04.121 --> 00:32:05.400
And also no peer managers.
716
00:32:06.181 --> 00:32:08.640
So there are no peer managers at Coinbase, according to Brian.
717
00:32:08.901 --> 00:32:11.060
Everyone is at least somewhat of an individual contributor.
718
00:32:12.584 --> 00:32:13.980
I don't think this was AI, though.
719
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:15.340
I mean, I think it was like-
720
00:32:15.380 --> 00:32:17.358
I think AI is a useful scapegoat.
721
00:32:18.500 --> 00:32:19.560
It makes everything more tolerable.
722
00:32:20.341 --> 00:32:22.480
Yeah, and I don't even know if it's a scapegoat, really.
723
00:32:23.043 --> 00:32:25.700
He didn't say that this was the reason necessarily.
724
00:32:25.840 --> 00:32:29.019
He just said, we're going to take this opportunity for efficiencies, right?
725
00:32:29.400 --> 00:32:31.520
But to your point, they've done this every single cycle.
726
00:32:32.000 --> 00:32:36.120
There have been 1,200 layoffs in crypto in the past five months.
727
00:32:36.940 --> 00:32:37.679
So Coinbase 700.
728
00:32:37.720 --> 00:32:38.380
Coinbase being the big one.
729
00:32:38.881 --> 00:32:39.860
Yeah, that's the big one.
730
00:32:39.980 --> 00:32:46.340
And to your point, fun fact, these layoffs previously from Coinbase have marked the bottom.
731
00:32:47.180 --> 00:32:49.628
So June 2022, 18% of the workforce, they laid off.
732
00:32:53.340 --> 00:32:55.240
Wasn't quite the bottom, but pretty close.
733
00:32:55.341 --> 00:32:56.440
Yeah, pretty close, pretty close.
734
00:32:56.560 --> 00:32:57.100
So this happens.
735
00:32:57.902 --> 00:33:00.880
I won't call it a bottom ticker, but it is a bottom signal.
736
00:33:01.283 --> 00:33:02.040
I agree, I agree.
737
00:33:02.500 --> 00:33:04.360
Now, let's talk about the raises, though,
738
00:33:04.581 --> 00:33:05.940
because this is the other side of that.
739
00:33:05.960 --> 00:33:07.660
So if that's the bearish news, layoffs,
740
00:33:08.401 --> 00:33:09.980
there were some pretty big VC raises.
741
00:33:10.760 --> 00:33:13.800
A16Z and Han Ventures, is that right?
742
00:33:14.080 --> 00:33:14.200
Yeah.
743
00:33:14.442 --> 00:33:16.214
And the total between them, $3.2 billion.
744
00:33:17.741 --> 00:33:19.140
Yeah, the timing of this was actually kind of funny.
745
00:33:19.480 --> 00:33:22.660
Han Ventures announced their $1 billion raise on Monday.
746
00:33:23.161 --> 00:33:26.958
And then Tuesday, A16Z comes in and says, we raised $2.2 billion.
747
00:33:27.581 --> 00:33:30.180
Chris Dixon just like dropping it.
748
00:33:30.700 --> 00:33:34.659
$3.2 billion is not a small amount of money by any standards.
749
00:33:34.860 --> 00:33:35.080
These are crypto funds.
750
00:33:35.200 --> 00:33:36.520
These are crypto funds.
751
00:33:36.600 --> 00:33:36.760
Okay.
752
00:33:37.080 --> 00:33:37.960
And they're not the only one.
753
00:33:38.141 --> 00:33:40.416
And so Dragonfly previously raised $650 billion.
754
00:33:41.160 --> 00:33:42.253
Parify raised $125 billion.
755
00:33:43.321 --> 00:33:44.993
Blockchain Capital is raising $700 million.
756
00:33:46.440 --> 00:33:50.698
Paradigm, which is not just crypto, it's also AI and robotics, $1.5 billion.
757
00:33:51.461 --> 00:33:52.880
So closing it on $6 billion.
758
00:33:54.302 --> 00:33:56.540
Crypto and now crypto-adjacent funds.
759
00:33:56.922 --> 00:33:59.600
And so you can't really be bearish.
760
00:34:00.770 --> 00:34:01.740
This is healthy for the industry.
761
00:34:02.020 --> 00:34:02.100
New capital.
762
00:34:02.501 --> 00:34:04.340
New capital, new round of startups.
763
00:34:05.580 --> 00:34:07.396
Refreshed for what it takes in 2026.
764
00:34:08.342 --> 00:34:11.600
I think kind of the big question is, what are these people deploying into?
765
00:34:12.060 --> 00:34:12.860
Well, did you read it?
766
00:34:13.041 --> 00:34:14.820
So it was new financial infrastructure.
767
00:34:14.960 --> 00:34:16.500
A lot of stable coins mentioned.
768
00:34:16.860 --> 00:34:16.972
Yeah.
769
00:34:17.220 --> 00:34:20.980
New assets and markets, agentic economy, that kind of thing mentioned.
770
00:34:21.140 --> 00:34:22.020
Things not mentioned.
771
00:34:22.300 --> 00:34:24.400
I didn't hear much DeFi, for instance.
772
00:34:24.780 --> 00:34:24.860
No.
773
00:34:25.020 --> 00:34:30.180
Now, Hasib reminded everyone that all of these funds, including, by the way, Dragonfly,
774
00:34:30.641 --> 00:34:31.620
their mandate is broad.
775
00:34:31.720 --> 00:34:39.840
So they can totally deploy into Bitcoin and Ether and Zcash and any other liquid crypto token out there as well.
776
00:34:39.940 --> 00:34:44.180
But that was not the stated reason for the fundraise this time.
777
00:34:44.620 --> 00:34:47.740
No Layer 1s, no DeFi apps, no NFT platforms.
778
00:34:47.761 --> 00:34:48.440
Notably missing.
779
00:34:48.781 --> 00:34:49.330
What else?
780
00:34:49.737 --> 00:34:49.880
Yeah.
781
00:34:50.323 --> 00:34:50.497
Yeah.
782
00:34:51.141 --> 00:34:55.340
Lots of tokenization, lots of Wall Street stuff, lots of neobanks, lots of payment stuff.
783
00:34:55.502 --> 00:34:56.693
As you'd expect in 2026.
784
00:34:58.321 --> 00:35:08.618
David, Michael Saylor said the words out loud, the thing he should never say, that he was thinking about maybe at some point selling some Bitcoin.
785
00:35:08.638 --> 00:35:10.100
This was all over my feed this week.
786
00:35:10.140 --> 00:35:10.747
Why would he sell Bitcoin?
787
00:35:10.767 --> 00:35:11.940
What would he need to sell Bitcoin for?
788
00:35:12.241 --> 00:35:16.900
I think he's got to pay some of the people that are lending him funds, David.
789
00:35:17.080 --> 00:35:18.560
Lending him funds to buy Bitcoin.
790
00:35:18.741 --> 00:35:19.380
Yeah, that's right.
791
00:35:19.460 --> 00:35:28.580
So he's being lent funds to buy Bitcoin and then he's selling Bitcoin to pay the dividends for the capital requirements for the people who he sold the equities to.
792
00:35:29.844 --> 00:35:33.800
He's selling a little bit in order to raise kind of the interest payment dividend type fund.
793
00:35:33.820 --> 00:35:34.220
I don't believe it.
794
00:35:34.322 --> 00:35:34.740
It's fake.
795
00:35:35.587 --> 00:35:36.179
He never said it.
796
00:35:36.503 --> 00:35:37.039
It's not fake.
797
00:35:37.362 --> 00:35:39.300
Let's play the clip so people can hear it.
798
00:35:39.821 --> 00:35:41.960
You buy Bitcoin with credit.
799
00:35:42.340 --> 00:35:46.040
You let it appreciate and then you sell Bitcoin to pay the dividend.
800
00:35:46.761 --> 00:35:55.900
And as long as you're issuing credit and access of the breakeven point, then this business works and grows forever.
801
00:35:56.580 --> 00:35:57.960
You know what I love about this, Ryan?
802
00:35:58.244 --> 00:35:58.418
Yeah.
803
00:35:59.400 --> 00:36:02.820
You and I would debate with Bitcoiners as a pastime in years past.
804
00:36:03.420 --> 00:36:11.600
One of our most fundamental arguments against Bitcoiners is that they always have this fundamental assumption that Bitcoin just goes up forever.
805
00:36:12.741 --> 00:36:25.800
It's in the Bitcoin security budget arguments, and it's now in Saylor's quarterly earnings report of you buy Bitcoin, you wait for it to appreciate, you sell a little bit of Bitcoin to pay back the dividends.
806
00:36:26.180 --> 00:36:26.297
Yeah.
807
00:36:27.462 --> 00:36:28.840
All Bitcoin has to do is appreciate.
808
00:36:29.681 --> 00:36:30.980
I mean, I think it works, though.
809
00:36:31.080 --> 00:36:32.660
Honestly, I just don't hate it.
810
00:36:33.021 --> 00:36:34.740
I think it all works.
811
00:36:34.881 --> 00:36:40.240
It's not a lot of Bitcoin that he would sell, but this is him opening the door in order to do that.
812
00:36:40.340 --> 00:36:44.623
And I think he needs to do that with products like Stretch.
813
00:36:44.663 --> 00:36:45.864
You need to have this option.
814
00:36:46.264 --> 00:36:51.888
The structure of MicroStrategy this time around is much different than it was previously.
815
00:36:52.328 --> 00:37:03.596
And the only way you're going to entice more Stretch buyers is to actually open the possibility that you may have to sell some of the underlying Bitcoin as collateral in order to pay them back.
816
00:37:03.636 --> 00:37:08.940
Or they're not going to continue buying your Stretch product and your other preferred shares products.
817
00:37:09.320 --> 00:37:11.382
I think that's totally right.
818
00:37:12.023 --> 00:37:16.368
I think you and I, I bought a little bit of Stretch, like $500 of Stretch just because.
819
00:37:16.988 --> 00:37:21.333
And the reason why I'm not doing more is because like, oh, what if Saylor wipes me out?
820
00:37:21.893 --> 00:37:25.437
Like, what if he goes like, ah, I ran out of money, but I'm definitely not selling my Bitcoin.
821
00:37:25.457 --> 00:37:26.618
So Stretch is going to zero.
822
00:37:27.058 --> 00:37:28.560
So that's why it can't be a savings account.
823
00:37:28.640 --> 00:37:40.340
But if Saylor is publicly saying, I will sell Bitcoin to fund the yields, it probably opens up the TAM for the interested buyer of Stretch, which opens up his ability to buy more Bitcoin now.
824
00:37:40.801 --> 00:37:44.760
And really, I actually don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with this.
825
00:37:45.100 --> 00:37:46.000
Of course, there's nothing wrong.
826
00:37:46.101 --> 00:37:49.780
What is his whole deal is he is arbitraging timeframes.
827
00:37:50.441 --> 00:38:03.980
And so if people want 11% now and Michael Saylor wants 30% later because he thinks that's what Bitcoin is going to appreciate by over the long term, he will give you that arbitrage opportunity.
828
00:38:04.140 --> 00:38:04.400
That's right.
829
00:38:05.022 --> 00:38:08.180
What's wrong with it, if there's anything wrong, is it's off script.
830
00:38:09.220 --> 00:38:09.340
Sure.
831
00:38:10.163 --> 00:38:12.720
Michael Saylor at every point, never sell your Bitcoin.
832
00:38:13.264 --> 00:38:14.540
Never, ever sell your Bitcoin.
833
00:38:14.580 --> 00:38:18.000
He literally tweeted out, sell your kidney if you have to.
834
00:38:18.382 --> 00:38:18.529
Yes.
835
00:38:18.961 --> 00:38:22.140
So is he going to sell his kidney before he starts to sell Bitcoin to pay back?
836
00:38:22.200 --> 00:38:24.240
No, I think he's got to pay some preferred shareholders.
837
00:38:24.260 --> 00:38:25.460
I think he should do it as a bit.
838
00:38:26.666 --> 00:38:27.860
Sell his actual kidney?
839
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:33.800
Before he sells any Bitcoin to pay stretch dividends, he should sell his kidney first.
840
00:38:34.061 --> 00:38:34.600
Yeah, that's right.
841
00:38:34.721 --> 00:38:35.579
How convicted is he?
842
00:38:35.780 --> 00:38:35.978
Come on.
843
00:38:36.000 --> 00:38:37.059
If he's not willing to sell his...
844
00:38:37.183 --> 00:38:37.560
Come on.
845
00:38:37.682 --> 00:38:38.340
He's got two.
846
00:38:38.422 --> 00:38:38.879
He said it.
847
00:38:39.602 --> 00:38:40.880
How many chairs are you sitting on?
848
00:38:41.404 --> 00:38:43.020
How many kidneys do you have, Michael Saylor?
849
00:38:43.120 --> 00:38:43.500
How many kidneys do you need?
850
00:38:43.843 --> 00:38:44.600
How many do you need?
851
00:38:46.384 --> 00:38:47.120
That's a great idea.
852
00:38:47.220 --> 00:38:47.819
I hope he's listening.
853
00:38:48.502 --> 00:38:50.700
David, coming up next, we got to talk about Ethereum.
854
00:38:50.941 --> 00:38:51.499
It is scaling.
855
00:38:51.840 --> 00:38:55.760
There was a meeting of the devs in the Arctic Circle.
856
00:38:55.920 --> 00:38:56.599
I want to tell you about that.
857
00:38:56.760 --> 00:38:56.880
The high summit.
858
00:38:57.220 --> 00:38:58.060
Yeah, a summit.
859
00:38:58.300 --> 00:39:02.120
Also, the strategic Bitcoin reserve, an announcement that within weeks,
860
00:39:02.221 --> 00:39:03.980
there's going to be something to announce.
861
00:39:04.201 --> 00:39:05.880
I actually have a bullish take on this.
862
00:39:06.120 --> 00:39:07.280
We'll get to all this and more.
863
00:39:07.380 --> 00:39:10.860
But before we do, let's thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
864
00:39:11.201 --> 00:39:13.809
In 2024, emerging markets generated over $115 billion in annual yield for investors.
865
00:39:17.462 --> 00:39:19.276
with yields ranging between 10 to 40%.
866
00:39:19.820 --> 00:39:22.640
These are some of the highest, most persistent yields on earth.
867
00:39:22.780 --> 00:39:23.184
The problem?
868
00:39:23.366 --> 00:39:24.780
DeFi can't access them.
869
00:39:25.020 --> 00:39:26.240
Bricks changes this.
870
00:39:26.400 --> 00:39:30.220
Built on MegaEth, Bricks takes emerging market money markets and sovereign carry
871
00:39:30.381 --> 00:39:34.000
and turns them into composable primitives you can access straight from your wallet.
872
00:39:34.140 --> 00:39:37.380
While DeFi investors earn 3 to 6% on stablecoins and T-bills,
873
00:39:37.580 --> 00:39:42.420
institutions have been harvesting 10 to 50% yields backed by sovereign monetary policy.
874
00:39:42.680 --> 00:39:45.760
Bricks connects these worlds with institutional gray tokenization,
875
00:39:46.021 --> 00:39:50.000
local banking rails, compliance across jurisdictions, and real-time stablecoin
876
00:39:50.101 --> 00:39:50.442
settlement.
877
00:39:50.482 --> 00:39:53.960
Bricks does the heavy lifting so DeFi can finally access real collateral
878
00:39:54.181 --> 00:39:56.732
and structured products on top of real-world yield.
879
00:39:56.873 --> 00:39:58.420
Even the best carry trades can be within
880
00:39:58.500 --> 00:39:58.701
reach.
881
00:39:58.902 --> 00:40:02.480
Bricks brings DeFi's promise to the emerging world and brings emerging market
882
00:40:02.580 --> 00:40:03.745
yield to your wallet.
883
00:40:03.785 --> 00:40:05.332
Let the yield flow with Bricks.
884
00:40:06.256 --> 00:40:07.220
When the market pulls back,
885
00:40:07.420 --> 00:40:08.465
most people just wait.
886
00:40:08.525 --> 00:40:10.555
They hold cash, hoping things stabilize.
887
00:40:10.675 --> 00:40:11.640
But there's another move,
888
00:40:11.841 --> 00:40:13.126
And that's where Nexo comes in.
889
00:40:13.267 --> 00:40:16.200
Nexo is a platform built to help keep your digital assets productive.
890
00:40:16.560 --> 00:40:23.500
You can earn daily interest on supported crypto assets through their yield product or get funds through a crypto-backed credit line without having to sell any of your assets.
891
00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:27.060
So if you want optionality, Nexo gives you both sides of the equation.
892
00:40:27.340 --> 00:40:30.680
You can put your assets to work or borrow against them when you need flexibility.
893
00:40:31.000 --> 00:40:35.160
Nexo has been around since 2018 and has over $8 billion in assets on the platform.
894
00:40:35.300 --> 00:40:39.040
And it's paid out more than $1.3 billion in interest to clients globally.
895
00:40:39.301 --> 00:40:43.460
So if you're a new U.S. user, there's a welcome incentive waiting for you when you sign up.
896
00:40:43.580 --> 00:40:44.820
Check it out at the link in the show notes.
897
00:40:44.980 --> 00:40:47.060
And as always, this is not investment advice.
898
00:40:47.340 --> 00:40:51.720
Ryan, let's get back into the Arbitrum DAO Layer Zero Kelp hack story.
899
00:40:52.140 --> 00:40:54.000
Do you remember where things left off with that?
900
00:40:54.220 --> 00:41:01.880
Arbitrum had frozen some funds on its chain that they were just kind of waiting for Aave and the rest of the ecosystem to figure out what they want to do.
901
00:41:02.560 --> 00:41:04.040
They were part of DeFi United, right?
902
00:41:04.120 --> 00:41:09.960
And so those frozen funds were going to contribute towards the restoration of the RSE collateral.
903
00:41:11.040 --> 00:41:12.609
Yeah, there's like 116 Ether hole from the exploit.
904
00:41:15.000 --> 00:41:19.939
Arbitrum was able to recapture 31,000 ETH that it yoinked from North Korea.
905
00:41:20.240 --> 00:41:21.815
Is that like 60 million, 70 million?
906
00:41:22.684 --> 00:41:23.599
Yeah, 70 million, I think.
907
00:41:24.561 --> 00:41:32.680
There's a small little hiccup that happened, which is kind of posing a big question about DAOs and DeFi.
908
00:41:33.621 --> 00:41:45.380
There was a court order from the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of the UNORC issuing a restraining order on Arbitrum Dow from moving the 31,000 Ether that it froze from North Korea.
909
00:41:46.662 --> 00:41:48.880
Why and how and what happens next?
910
00:41:48.980 --> 00:41:54.840
The order introducing a competing legal claim from a completely unrelated case.
911
00:41:55.142 --> 00:41:58.500
unrelated people who also have damages,
912
00:41:58.840 --> 00:42:00.800
damage claims against North Korea
913
00:42:01.423 --> 00:42:04.860
for unpaid terrorism judgments against the DPRK,
914
00:42:06.041 --> 00:42:08.760
with claims totaling over almost a billion dollars.
915
00:42:09.040 --> 00:42:10.220
Nothing related to crypto.
916
00:42:10.440 --> 00:42:11.459
Nothing related to DeFi.
917
00:42:12.540 --> 00:42:14.779
But there are these people who have legal claims
918
00:42:15.263 --> 00:42:17.060
against North Korean assets.
919
00:42:17.200 --> 00:42:18.780
Okay, there's some U.S. court that said,
920
00:42:18.940 --> 00:42:22.595
okay, yes, Kim Jong-un and North Korea owes you guys $877 million,
921
00:42:23.941 --> 00:42:26.220
and that claim has just been outstanding somewhere.
922
00:42:26.580 --> 00:42:26.797
Yes.
923
00:42:27.280 --> 00:42:30.700
And so these people's lawyers argue that the frozen ether
924
00:42:31.345 --> 00:42:33.320
constitutes North Korean property.
925
00:42:33.914 --> 00:42:34.039
Oh.
926
00:42:34.460 --> 00:42:34.525
Oh.
927
00:42:35.401 --> 00:42:37.996
Because Layer Zero attributed the April 18th hack
928
00:42:38.741 --> 00:42:40.460
to the North Korea Lazarus Group
929
00:42:40.480 --> 00:42:42.480
because the hack was done by the Lazarus Group.
930
00:42:42.760 --> 00:42:44.100
And so therefore it's North Korean property
931
00:42:44.744 --> 00:42:47.760
and there are these people who have claims on North Korean property.
932
00:42:48.240 --> 00:42:49.800
And so the New York court said,
933
00:42:49.960 --> 00:42:51.960
Arbitrum, don't move that ether.
934
00:42:52.767 --> 00:42:54.099
that ether is contested.
935
00:42:54.402 --> 00:42:55.220
It's contested.
936
00:42:55.260 --> 00:42:55.740
Contested.
937
00:42:55.820 --> 00:42:57.100
Okay, they didn't make a ruling on it.
938
00:42:57.281 --> 00:42:58.800
There's no way this holds up.
939
00:42:58.940 --> 00:43:00.179
There's no way you can say
940
00:43:00.260 --> 00:43:00.879
if a thief steals something.
941
00:43:00.920 --> 00:43:01.740
I mean, I'm not a lawyer,
942
00:43:01.920 --> 00:43:03.597
but like, holy hell, no way, dude.
943
00:43:06.248 --> 00:43:08.220
That's what Ave is essentially saying.
944
00:43:08.442 --> 00:43:09.240
I did see this tweet.
945
00:43:09.461 --> 00:43:11.680
Ave LLC has filed an emergency motion
946
00:43:11.822 --> 00:43:13.020
to vacate a restraining notice
947
00:43:13.142 --> 00:43:14.219
served to the Arbitrum DAO.
948
00:43:14.380 --> 00:43:16.100
So Ave getting involved here
949
00:43:16.322 --> 00:43:18.580
about this 71 million in ETH.
950
00:43:19.103 --> 00:43:19.778
And he said this.
951
00:43:20.221 --> 00:43:21.820
This should be pretty obvious, I think.
952
00:43:22.161 --> 00:43:26.800
A thief does not gain lawful ownership of stolen property simply by taking it.
953
00:43:27.201 --> 00:43:29.119
And the law is clear on this.
954
00:43:29.920 --> 00:43:30.040
All right.
955
00:43:30.161 --> 00:43:34.080
So if the law is clear, what's up with this hold order?
956
00:43:34.360 --> 00:43:35.960
How did like, why is the court doing this?
957
00:43:36.020 --> 00:43:37.899
And what's the legal team behind this?
958
00:43:38.322 --> 00:43:42.300
Yeah, I think it's really who is the legal team is the very big question, because this
959
00:43:42.380 --> 00:43:48.598
is the same lawyers that in 2021 sued Compound and Ave in frivolous lawsuits and also pulled
960
00:43:49.223 --> 00:43:49.560
together.
961
00:43:49.560 --> 00:43:49.998
Okay.
962
00:43:50.643 --> 00:43:53.780
There was this Elizabeth Warren staffer or ex-staffer.
963
00:43:53.820 --> 00:43:54.660
They were involved in that?
964
00:43:55.301 --> 00:44:01.080
Yeah, who put like $26 into Pool Together, a prize-linked no-loss lottery,
965
00:44:01.960 --> 00:44:04.200
and then lost the money because of gas.
966
00:44:04.240 --> 00:44:05.500
It was like gas payments or something.
967
00:44:05.600 --> 00:44:05.700
Right.
968
00:44:05.800 --> 00:44:06.940
They lost because of gas payments.
969
00:44:07.400 --> 00:44:11.520
They go to this same law firm and they file a frivolous lawsuit,
970
00:44:11.640 --> 00:44:14.917
which Pool Together had to fight for years and won,
971
00:44:15.701 --> 00:44:19.780
but completely sucked, pulled together, dry of funds fighting the legal case.
972
00:44:19.800 --> 00:44:20.477
Yeah, so the intent-
973
00:44:20.580 --> 00:44:21.640
And these are the same lawyers.
974
00:44:21.760 --> 00:44:22.280
The same lawyers.
975
00:44:22.380 --> 00:44:24.600
Okay, the intent there in that case, in the pulled together case,
976
00:44:24.640 --> 00:44:27.837
seemed to be just to cause a ruckus in DeFi, right?
977
00:44:28.460 --> 00:44:29.500
Just sow some chaos.
978
00:44:29.801 --> 00:44:30.919
Is that the same intent here?
979
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:33.140
Or are they actually more, like, because, you know,
980
00:44:33.260 --> 00:44:37.300
obviously the ambulance chaser type of lawyers with frivolous lawsuits,
981
00:44:37.922 --> 00:44:39.700
their incentive is generally to get, you know,
982
00:44:39.800 --> 00:44:42.360
some commission on the legal payout there.
983
00:44:42.460 --> 00:44:43.840
There's a profit incentive there.
984
00:44:44.141 --> 00:44:48.020
Are you saying this is more of a like, we hate DeFi, we want to sow some chaos?
985
00:44:48.300 --> 00:44:50.660
Or is there a profit incentive here for this law firm?
986
00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:55.260
I don't know how else not to interpret it as these people just hate crypto and they
987
00:44:55.340 --> 00:44:59.840
keep doing frivolous lawsuits that always lose, but they just cause a ruckus in the
988
00:44:59.880 --> 00:45:02.920
meantime and they just drain legal funds.
989
00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:03.580
All right.
990
00:45:03.640 --> 00:45:08.200
Well, so this probably, there's no way this holds up in U.S. courts, of course.
991
00:45:08.500 --> 00:45:12.440
But it does open the nexus for the Security Council, right?
992
00:45:12.500 --> 00:45:18.460
It's 12 multi-sig signers and they don't get paid a lot in order to be a multi-sig signer.
993
00:45:18.560 --> 00:45:22.100
In fact, I thought it was something like 5K a month or something like this.
994
00:45:22.920 --> 00:45:27.259
I guarantee you when the people who signed on to be an Arbitrum Security Council multi-sig signer,
995
00:45:27.841 --> 00:45:33.460
when they agreed to do this, they did not think about how the Southern District Court of New York
996
00:45:34.444 --> 00:45:38.400
might potentially hold them liable if they violated a court order.
997
00:45:38.560 --> 00:45:40.140
And that's why it's a real story.
998
00:45:40.400 --> 00:45:40.601
Yeah.
999
00:45:40.701 --> 00:45:50.260
So when I saw some of this, I'm like, OK, these layer twos, they want to throw away the keys and get rid of their security councils and get to stage two as soon as possible.
1000
00:45:50.560 --> 00:45:55.860
Because if this vector does exist, you're going to get more of these types of cases.
1001
00:45:56.140 --> 00:45:56.819
And they don't want that.
1002
00:45:56.840 --> 00:46:06.460
It's kind of interesting that this has happened so quickly post the recovery of the assets where like the big question was like, oh, is this going to put more liability on the security council?
1003
00:46:07.102 --> 00:46:10.120
And now here we are just a couple of weeks later with a court case.
1004
00:46:10.682 --> 00:46:15.760
yeah it's exactly like as you know as we predicted as we expected it to play do you say taylor
1005
00:46:15.981 --> 00:46:21.240
monahan she was having a meltdown i'm not even gonna read this tweet dude it's hilarious you
1006
00:46:21.260 --> 00:46:26.800
have to read it yes little effing who can't do the work so they come chase after people who did
1007
00:46:26.840 --> 00:46:33.860
the work bite me worse than effing ambulance chasers stg what's stg swear to god oh i think
1008
00:46:34.843 --> 00:46:39.960
this is part of a series of tweets little can go f themselves you want some money go effing do the
1009
00:46:40.803 --> 00:46:45.260
If you don't know who Taylor Monaghan is, that's kind of important context for understanding why Ryan is laughing.
1010
00:46:45.260 --> 00:46:45.740
We should say this.
1011
00:46:46.842 --> 00:46:49.360
Taylor, by the way, she is a fantastic person.
1012
00:46:49.580 --> 00:46:52.380
I think she's really stood up for the space.
1013
00:46:52.400 --> 00:46:53.520
She's just unhinged on Twitter.
1014
00:46:54.143 --> 00:46:54.760
She really is.
1015
00:46:54.983 --> 00:46:56.140
Usually it's pretty entertaining.
1016
00:46:56.442 --> 00:46:56.900
Yeah, but she is.
1017
00:46:56.900 --> 00:47:00.440
Sometimes it's accidentally pointed at you, but usually it's just entertaining for everyone involved.
1018
00:47:00.440 --> 00:47:00.620
Exactly, exactly.
1019
00:47:00.740 --> 00:47:02.599
So I'm enjoying the entertainment of this.
1020
00:47:03.001 --> 00:47:04.300
She's part of the SEAL team.
1021
00:47:04.602 --> 00:47:05.980
She's done so much for the crypto space.
1022
00:47:06.241 --> 00:47:11.820
She's angry, expressing some anger against these lawyers who are just trying to associate chaos here.
1023
00:47:12.861 --> 00:47:17.139
David, you want to hear about Ethereum and what they're doing with L1 scaling?
1024
00:47:17.620 --> 00:47:18.860
Not L2, L1 scaling?
1025
00:47:19.343 --> 00:47:20.960
I have always wanted to hear that.
1026
00:47:21.202 --> 00:47:22.080
I know you have.
1027
00:47:22.200 --> 00:47:26.239
I know this has been a passion project of yours around scaling the L1.
1028
00:47:26.701 --> 00:47:29.820
Well, do you remember that thing that came out last year?
1029
00:47:30.562 --> 00:47:33.540
It was an EIP, kind of a Donkrad EIP.
1030
00:47:34.360 --> 00:47:41.060
And he said, wouldn't it be great if we could 3x L1 scale every single year from here on out?
1031
00:47:41.340 --> 00:47:41.538
Right.
1032
00:47:41.723 --> 00:47:41.860
Yep.
1033
00:47:41.980 --> 00:47:42.499
You remember that?
1034
00:47:42.721 --> 00:47:43.198
I got really excited.
1035
00:47:43.282 --> 00:47:43.740
It looked like this.
1036
00:47:43.980 --> 00:47:46.040
And then there was a slide that Justin Drake put together.
1037
00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:47.098
It looked like this.
1038
00:47:47.720 --> 00:47:51.833
And it had different mega gas targets, gas limit targets for 2025, 2026, all the way to 2030.
1039
00:47:54.281 --> 00:47:59.719
And if you do accomplish the 3x per year, you get to one gig of gas by 2030.
1040
00:48:00.600 --> 00:48:04.880
Well, there is another hard fork coming, the Glamsterdam hard fork.
1041
00:48:05.180 --> 00:48:06.840
EPBS is in that.
1042
00:48:07.861 --> 00:48:09.940
The BAL, what is that?
1043
00:48:10.020 --> 00:48:12.920
The Block Access List update was in that.
1044
00:48:13.202 --> 00:48:14.840
Some kind of esoteric updates.
1045
00:48:15.381 --> 00:48:22.295
One of the other things, though, is the increase of max block space from, I think, 60 million to 200 million.
1046
00:48:25.060 --> 00:48:25.150
200.
1047
00:48:26.000 --> 00:48:26.137
Yeah.
1048
00:48:26.524 --> 00:48:27.740
And so I charted this out.
1049
00:48:27.900 --> 00:48:29.500
I had my quant chart this out.
1050
00:48:29.620 --> 00:48:31.000
Oh, this is a Ryan Tron Adams chart?
1051
00:48:31.100 --> 00:48:32.579
Oh, this is where all your tokens are going.
1052
00:48:32.640 --> 00:48:34.220
I was spending some of those cloud tokens, dude.
1053
00:48:34.602 --> 00:48:36.299
This chart probably cost 20 bucks, okay?
1054
00:48:38.023 --> 00:48:46.280
And this is like showing TPS and block space of Ethereum and projecting that based on the 3x per year line.
1055
00:48:46.700 --> 00:48:52.500
And David, with this GlamsterNAM upgrade, we will be right on track, right on the 3x trend line.
1056
00:48:52.660 --> 00:48:56.620
We are lagging behind the original prediction, but this catches us right back up.
1057
00:48:56.941 --> 00:48:58.360
This catches us right back up.
1058
00:48:58.420 --> 00:49:00.200
So it catches us back to the trend line.
1059
00:49:00.300 --> 00:49:07.020
So this would be a 3x, sorry, excuse me, a 7x in transactions per second and block space
1060
00:49:07.121 --> 00:49:09.240
availability on the L1 in 12 months.
1061
00:49:09.774 --> 00:49:09.899
Yeah.
1062
00:49:10.441 --> 00:49:14.238
Which is pretty astounding because we went to, you remember this, we went to 30 million.
1063
00:49:14.980 --> 00:49:17.400
We were at 30 million for like four years.
1064
00:49:18.100 --> 00:49:20.534
And then just last year, we went from 30 to 45 to 60.
1065
00:49:22.122 --> 00:49:23.331
And now we go from 60 to 200.
1066
00:49:25.101 --> 00:49:27.873
And that results in something close to 80 to 100 transactions per second.
1067
00:49:29.901 --> 00:49:36.360
so l1 is actually scaling like they're actually doing it i think this means that we're not going
1068
00:49:36.360 --> 00:49:45.440
to see any uh l1 fees anytime soon i think i think blockchain fees as a concept are kind of just gone
1069
00:49:46.142 --> 00:49:50.940
oh my god i've been saying this yeah i've been saying like no chain has fees anymore what's one
1070
00:49:50.980 --> 00:49:55.480
chain that has fees why would they bitcoin has no demand so they have no fees of course
1071
00:49:56.122 --> 00:50:01.720
ethereum scaling yeah also has much less demand than in the past and then what other chains are
1072
00:50:01.740 --> 00:50:06.680
left like mega brand new chain is like negative fees because it's the theoretical limit of
1073
00:50:06.760 --> 00:50:12.380
throughput solana solana is going even faster you only get fees you are right tron has fees
1074
00:50:12.741 --> 00:50:18.980
you only get fees on a blockchain if there's block space contention if demand exceeds supply
1075
00:50:19.522 --> 00:50:24.820
And if you are creating more supply and supply exceeds demand, you don't get fees.
1076
00:50:25.940 --> 00:50:34.160
And so, you know, like if your bull case on Ether is just about fees, then you also have to not care about scaling.
1077
00:50:34.740 --> 00:50:34.920
Right?
1078
00:50:36.233 --> 00:50:36.399
Anyway.
1079
00:50:36.780 --> 00:50:36.917
Yeah.
1080
00:50:37.120 --> 00:50:45.000
This is why for decentralized blockchains, my thesis on like how they accrue value is all about story value.
1081
00:50:45.100 --> 00:50:45.660
It's all about money.
1082
00:50:45.800 --> 00:50:46.820
Bitcoin's always been right.
1083
00:50:47.460 --> 00:50:48.379
Ether is a story value.
1084
00:50:48.882 --> 00:50:49.740
My opinion is always right.
1085
00:50:50.000 --> 00:50:52.660
There will be times where we'll oscillate and we will generate some fees
1086
00:50:53.203 --> 00:50:56.100
and that will go into the burn and that will slightly reduce issuance.
1087
00:50:56.760 --> 00:50:59.000
But ETH is either a store of value asset and a money
1088
00:50:59.904 --> 00:51:03.320
or it's not worth very much because it's not worth much on fees alone.
1089
00:51:03.800 --> 00:51:04.859
This is a whole separate rant.
1090
00:51:05.520 --> 00:51:06.879
You guys know my position on this.
1091
00:51:07.320 --> 00:51:11.040
Basically, Ryan is saying that as Ethereum's throughput increases,
1092
00:51:11.781 --> 00:51:16.278
ETH becomes more and more money-like rather than revenue-like.
1093
00:51:16.880 --> 00:51:17.240
That's right.
1094
00:51:17.340 --> 00:51:17.720
That's right.
1095
00:51:18.389 --> 00:51:19.138
I believe that.
1096
00:51:20.182 --> 00:51:22.920
David, you want to hear about the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
1097
00:51:23.180 --> 00:51:25.860
Yeah, there was something out of Consensus Miami, which is happening right now.
1098
00:51:26.220 --> 00:51:26.380
Oh, yeah, yeah.
1099
00:51:26.560 --> 00:51:30.680
Actually, I forgot to tell you, by the way, because we talked about the Arctic Circle meeting.
1100
00:51:30.980 --> 00:51:35.260
The Glastonbury upgrade was all the devs met somewhere in the Arctic Circle.
1101
00:51:35.420 --> 00:51:36.259
Can you pronounce that?
1102
00:51:36.700 --> 00:51:37.380
Can you pronounce this place?
1103
00:51:38.380 --> 00:51:38.799
Solvebard?
1104
00:51:39.560 --> 00:51:41.980
Solvebard for the Sologen?
1105
00:51:42.524 --> 00:51:43.520
What country is that?
1106
00:51:43.580 --> 00:51:44.340
Is that like Finland?
1107
00:51:45.442 --> 00:51:46.539
It's somewhere very cold.
1108
00:51:46.931 --> 00:51:47.200
All right.
1109
00:51:47.321 --> 00:51:49.740
Anyway, the devs met there and that's where they came.
1110
00:51:50.220 --> 00:51:55.320
Everyone's in Miami and they're in Saldberg with the weird line through the O.
1111
00:51:55.662 --> 00:51:56.560
It doesn't seem real.
1112
00:51:56.681 --> 00:51:57.780
While everyone else is in Miami.
1113
00:51:57.860 --> 00:51:59.699
Yeah, the ETH devs go to the Arctic Circle.
1114
00:52:00.265 --> 00:52:00.960
Like, why, guys?
1115
00:52:01.020 --> 00:52:01.620
You don't have to go there.
1116
00:52:01.620 --> 00:52:03.120
I mean, they definitely don't want to go to Miami.
1117
00:52:03.540 --> 00:52:03.648
Yeah.
1118
00:52:04.082 --> 00:52:04.660
Anyway, all right.
1119
00:52:04.780 --> 00:52:07.860
So back to the Bitcoin, the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
1120
00:52:08.441 --> 00:52:13.460
So this is the third tease we've had and the biggest tease over the past three weeks.
1121
00:52:13.601 --> 00:52:16.980
So you remember last week we talked about Pete Hegz as the Secretary of War.
1122
00:52:17.482 --> 00:52:20.640
Talking about Bitcoin as a matter of security, saying there could be an announcement in the future.
1123
00:52:21.161 --> 00:52:22.620
Eric Trump was in Miami.
1124
00:52:23.600 --> 00:52:26.815
He said, big things are coming, that the U.S. government has 300,000 Bitcoin.
1125
00:52:28.121 --> 00:52:29.780
It won't sell it, he said.
1126
00:52:30.321 --> 00:52:39.580
Now we have Patrick Witt, who is actually the guy at the White House who is responsible for crypto and implementing the policy.
1127
00:52:39.820 --> 00:52:43.420
And he said this, the strategic Bitcoin reserve is coming.
1128
00:52:43.500 --> 00:52:46.900
An announcement is coming in the next few weeks.
1129
00:52:47.583 --> 00:52:47.946
All right.
1130
00:52:48.369 --> 00:52:49.780
So what could he be announcing?
1131
00:52:50.020 --> 00:52:51.040
An announcement of an announcement?
1132
00:52:51.420 --> 00:52:51.662
Yeah.
1133
00:52:52.065 --> 00:52:53.900
And it's going to be a big deal.
1134
00:52:54.882 --> 00:52:57.140
There could be all sorts of possibilities here.
1135
00:52:57.340 --> 00:52:58.900
What do you think the possibilities are?
1136
00:53:00.386 --> 00:53:01.340
Oh, God, I have no clue.
1137
00:53:01.721 --> 00:53:02.004
Really?
1138
00:53:02.349 --> 00:53:03.160
Like no clue at all?
1139
00:53:08.150 --> 00:53:10.880
I mean, yeah, I have no idea, actually.
1140
00:53:11.781 --> 00:53:13.900
OK, so Patrick Witt, do you remember Bo Hines?
1141
00:53:14.100 --> 00:53:17.525
He used to be in Patrick Witt's situation.
1142
00:53:17.545 --> 00:53:19.888
He used to be the crypto council executive director.
1143
00:53:19.908 --> 00:53:20.609
He's now at Tether.
1144
00:53:21.089 --> 00:53:23.592
Patrick Witt is the guy who replaced him.
1145
00:53:23.612 --> 00:53:29.380
I think what they're going to do here is, I don't think they're going to announce a program for purchasing Bitcoin.
1146
00:53:30.141 --> 00:53:43.213
What I think they're going to do is actually announce the execution and implementation of Trump's executive order, his strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order that really hasn't been implemented.
1147
00:53:43.613 --> 00:53:49.458
And I think what they're going to do is go down the process of creating a Fort Knox for crypto.
1148
00:53:49.959 --> 00:53:51.060
I think that's the part of it.
1149
00:53:51.580 --> 00:53:58.105
So, if you recall, there was an executive order of March of last year that called for a few things.
1150
00:53:58.645 --> 00:54:03.008
One, centralized cold storage of all of the Bitcoin that the US government had.
1151
00:54:03.448 --> 00:54:11.614
You recall, all the Bitcoin, all the crypto assets seized were scattered across the DOJ, you know, cold wallets and desk drawers.
1152
00:54:11.634 --> 00:54:16.097
Like there was, remember that US Marshall's case where somehow 30 million of-
1153
00:54:21.201 --> 00:54:22.960
because the police officers stole it
1154
00:54:23.041 --> 00:54:23.900
or the investigators stole it.
1155
00:54:24.021 --> 00:54:25.960
So you need something centralized,
1156
00:54:26.160 --> 00:54:26.820
some cold storage,
1157
00:54:26.940 --> 00:54:28.940
some Fort Knox type of infrastructure
1158
00:54:28.981 --> 00:54:29.679
in order to do this.
1159
00:54:29.820 --> 00:54:31.500
I think also an audit framework
1160
00:54:31.764 --> 00:54:32.959
will be part of this.
1161
00:54:33.181 --> 00:54:34.299
I think they'll formalize
1162
00:54:34.664 --> 00:54:35.960
that we're not selling Bitcoin,
1163
00:54:36.060 --> 00:54:37.158
the teeth behind this.
1164
00:54:37.741 --> 00:54:39.060
And I think they will do this.
1165
00:54:39.160 --> 00:54:40.700
They will give Bitcoin,
1166
00:54:40.860 --> 00:54:42.239
maybe some other crypto assets,
1167
00:54:42.462 --> 00:54:43.900
a reserve asset designation.
1168
00:54:44.620 --> 00:54:46.280
So that puts it in kind of the class
1169
00:54:46.381 --> 00:54:47.680
on the Fed balance sheet,
1170
00:54:47.720 --> 00:54:48.700
alongside gold,
1171
00:54:49.220 --> 00:54:50.960
alongside other fiat currencies
1172
00:54:51.081 --> 00:54:53.176
that they might hold and SDRs.
1173
00:54:54.001 --> 00:54:56.039
So I think that's what they're really going to do.
1174
00:54:56.661 --> 00:54:58.199
And the US government does have
1175
00:54:58.662 --> 00:54:59.607
about 300 to 328,000 Bitcoin.
1176
00:55:03.282 --> 00:55:06.540
Although a chunk of this is court bound,
1177
00:55:06.660 --> 00:55:07.440
is tied up in courts,
1178
00:55:08.282 --> 00:55:10.280
is victims have claim over it.
1179
00:55:10.320 --> 00:55:11.898
Not necessarily the government's.
1180
00:55:12.690 --> 00:55:13.060
That's right.
1181
00:55:13.081 --> 00:55:13.839
It's owed to people.
1182
00:55:14.183 --> 00:55:16.240
So the Fort Knox pile,
1183
00:55:16.360 --> 00:55:18.300
the part they would put in the strategic Bitcoin reserves,
1184
00:55:18.441 --> 00:55:21.453
probably like closer to like 150 to 200k Bitcoin.
1185
00:55:21.874 --> 00:55:23.260
That's what I think they're going to roll out.
1186
00:55:23.420 --> 00:55:26.372
And that is, in my opinion, very bullish.
1187
00:55:26.954 --> 00:55:28.380
Now, it might not be as bullish.
1188
00:55:28.960 --> 00:55:29.061
Yeah.
1189
00:55:29.162 --> 00:55:31.640
Like the reason why I kind of thought this was a nothing burger is because like,
1190
00:55:31.760 --> 00:55:34.960
there's no way that they're announcing that they're buying Bitcoin and that's really what
1191
00:55:35.020 --> 00:55:35.602
people want.
1192
00:55:35.703 --> 00:55:38.293
And that's just not so unfeasible.
1193
00:55:38.413 --> 00:55:38.654
Yeah.
1194
00:55:38.815 --> 00:55:40.100
I think what you're saying is that like,
1195
00:55:40.160 --> 00:55:45.600
this is just an increasing legitimization of Bitcoin because we're creating process and
1196
00:55:45.740 --> 00:55:48.792
structure and commitment to holding Bitcoin.
1197
00:55:48.872 --> 00:55:49.193
Yeah.
1198
00:55:49.334 --> 00:55:50.619
A giant government vault for it.
1199
00:55:50.839 --> 00:55:51.020
Yeah.
1200
00:55:51.900 --> 00:55:55.520
Like if you told, if you're not, you're not excited about this, you don't think this is
1201
00:55:55.540 --> 00:55:55.801
bull?
1202
00:55:55.921 --> 00:55:56.243
Thumbs up.
1203
00:55:56.704 --> 00:56:00.820
Dude, five years ago, if you were to tell me that the U.S. government was
1204
00:56:00.880 --> 00:56:07.699
going to create a Fort Knox for digital bear instruments, I would be blown away.
1205
00:56:07.739 --> 00:56:08.060
I'd be like,
1206
00:56:08.181 --> 00:56:09.346
okay, well, we won.
1207
00:56:09.446 --> 00:56:09.868
It's over.
1208
00:56:09.888 --> 00:56:10.370
Yeah, you're right.
1209
00:56:10.591 --> 00:56:12.540
But like we already had the announcement.
1210
00:56:13.062 --> 00:56:16.998
it's just like hey we're doing the thing that we said that we're gonna do yeah and it's 2026
1211
00:56:17.480 --> 00:56:21.054
and it's 42 years later but like yeah okay you're right you're like we got there yay
1212
00:56:24.749 --> 00:56:27.480
you're right though i mean they're not going to announce that they're going i don't think
1213
00:56:27.500 --> 00:56:31.520
they're going to announce that they're going to be purchasing bitcoin um there is a way that the
1214
00:56:31.560 --> 00:56:35.599
treasury could do that by the way it's called an esf exchange stabilization fund they could so
1215
00:56:35.820 --> 00:56:41.440
besant could outside of congress actually start purchasing bitcoin there's no way he's going to
1216
00:56:41.480 --> 00:56:41.741
do that.
1217
00:56:41.781 --> 00:56:46.180
And then you remember Senator Lummis, she had a proposal called the Bitcoin Act,
1218
00:56:46.540 --> 00:56:49.012
which was to actually buy 1 million in Bitcoin.
1219
00:56:49.073 --> 00:56:50.057
That's a congressional act.
1220
00:56:50.098 --> 00:56:50.600
That's not going to
1221
00:56:50.600 --> 00:56:51.142
happen either.
1222
00:56:51.162 --> 00:56:52.286
Yeah, that's not going to happen.
1223
00:56:52.547 --> 00:56:55.980
Not in the same time where our debt to GDP ratio
1224
00:56:56.060 --> 00:56:57.989
just passed 100 or whatever.
1225
00:56:58.029 --> 00:56:59.496
I mean, it's probably the right time though.
1226
00:56:59.737 --> 00:57:00.320
It's probably the right
1227
00:57:00.440 --> 00:57:00.681
time.
1228
00:57:00.702 --> 00:57:01.003
Yeah, right.
1229
00:57:01.043 --> 00:57:02.047
Actually, that's bullish.
1230
00:57:03.011 --> 00:57:05.300
So the probability, according to PolyMarket,
1231
00:57:05.461 --> 00:57:08.180
of the U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve as defined,
1232
00:57:08.541 --> 00:57:09.799
you know, in the way I defined it,
1233
00:57:10.322 --> 00:57:11.510
is 33% right now, but rising.
1234
00:57:13.922 --> 00:57:14.680
But it rose on the week.
1235
00:57:15.520 --> 00:57:16.560
So there you go.
1236
00:57:17.285 --> 00:57:18.138
You don't seem excited about it.
1237
00:57:18.240 --> 00:57:20.460
I guess it's just remarkable in the sense that, like,
1238
00:57:20.581 --> 00:57:22.560
I kind of forgot that they didn't do it.
1239
00:57:22.700 --> 00:57:24.540
They just announced that they did it.
1240
00:57:24.540 --> 00:57:24.959
That's right.
1241
00:57:25.120 --> 00:57:25.479
They did.
1242
00:57:25.642 --> 00:57:26.640
Now we're actually doing it.
1243
00:57:26.700 --> 00:57:29.099
But I just don't want to, like, applaud for them
1244
00:57:29.424 --> 00:57:30.460
for just being late.
1245
00:57:31.241 --> 00:57:34.480
It's so exciting to me to think about what a,
1246
00:57:35.366 --> 00:57:37.620
what a crypt of Fort Knox would actually look like.
1247
00:57:38.104 --> 00:57:38.540
Sure, yeah.
1248
00:57:38.560 --> 00:57:40.000
Like, how are they locking that down?
1249
00:57:40.121 --> 00:57:41.119
Is the government doing this?
1250
00:57:41.240 --> 00:57:42.680
Like, oh my God, that's kind of scary.
1251
00:57:42.860 --> 00:57:43.419
I mean, does...
1252
00:57:43.460 --> 00:57:44.480
Because that means, like,
1253
00:57:44.741 --> 00:57:47.820
the government will have a Ethereum wallet
1254
00:57:48.022 --> 00:57:49.840
and a Bitcoin wallet will be a Bitcoin wallet.
1255
00:57:49.901 --> 00:57:51.440
Well, they already do, of course, right?
1256
00:57:52.284 --> 00:57:52.620
But now...
1257
00:57:52.620 --> 00:57:54.040
I wish they had an Ethereum wallet
1258
00:57:54.564 --> 00:57:56.700
because then we could send meme coins there.
1259
00:57:58.043 --> 00:57:59.660
And, like, other shenanigans like that.
1260
00:58:00.040 --> 00:58:02.440
Like, yeah, isn't it cool to just, like,
1261
00:58:02.901 --> 00:58:04.420
this is a government's Bitcoin wallet.
1262
00:58:04.645 --> 00:58:05.078
It's this.
1263
00:58:05.863 --> 00:58:07.240
And also here is the Ethereum wallet.
1264
00:58:07.861 --> 00:58:10.860
I mean, will it be protected physically, like the way Fort Knox is?
1265
00:58:11.000 --> 00:58:11.919
I can't imagine.
1266
00:58:12.701 --> 00:58:14.079
But you can still expose the publicies.
1267
00:58:15.344 --> 00:58:15.600
Yeah.
1268
00:58:16.283 --> 00:58:17.260
And we can send meme coins.
1269
00:58:17.740 --> 00:58:20.800
I mean, will foreign adversaries be trying to attack it?
1270
00:58:21.120 --> 00:58:23.580
For instance, trying to infiltrate it, trying to break in?
1271
00:58:23.641 --> 00:58:24.127
Why wouldn't you?
1272
00:58:25.301 --> 00:58:27.500
If you're in North Korea, why wouldn't you go after that?
1273
00:58:27.622 --> 00:58:27.980
Of course.
1274
00:58:28.080 --> 00:58:29.780
That would be an incredible prize for them.
1275
00:58:30.201 --> 00:58:33.240
And is the U.S. government actually competent enough to pull this off?
1276
00:58:34.108 --> 00:58:35.380
or do they really like,
1277
00:58:36.162 --> 00:58:37.700
I don't think I trust the US government
1278
00:58:37.720 --> 00:58:38.160
more than say Coinbase.
1279
00:58:38.160 --> 00:58:39.699
No, they should just hire Fireblocks
1280
00:58:40.105 --> 00:58:41.240
or Anchorage or something.
1281
00:58:42.161 --> 00:58:43.880
But then that's like a nation state target.
1282
00:58:44.021 --> 00:58:45.460
Anyway, I find it very interesting.
1283
00:58:45.801 --> 00:58:47.640
Yeah, can the United States government
1284
00:58:47.862 --> 00:58:50.040
self-custody this Bitcoin?
1285
00:58:50.961 --> 00:58:52.640
Well, is Trump going to just have it on his,
1286
00:58:53.041 --> 00:58:54.580
you know, beside the nuclear launch codes?
1287
00:58:54.600 --> 00:58:55.620
Didn't Trump steal a bunch of files
1288
00:58:55.761 --> 00:58:57.259
and hide them in his bathroom after?
1289
00:58:57.460 --> 00:58:58.720
It's going to end up in Mar-a-Lago.
1290
00:58:59.461 --> 00:59:00.640
Dude, Trump's just going to take
1291
00:59:00.721 --> 00:59:02.420
the private keys with him when he goes.
1292
00:59:03.064 --> 00:59:05.620
It's on a ledger somewhere in Mar-a-Lago.
1293
00:59:06.081 --> 00:59:07.720
That's the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
1294
00:59:08.680 --> 00:59:14.120
I'm just picturing, you know how there's like the drawer in the desk of the president?
1295
00:59:14.520 --> 00:59:18.200
I don't know if this is still true, but it's a drawer full of gifts.
1296
00:59:19.440 --> 00:59:24.117
I remember this old story of Nixon when Elvis visited the White House.
1297
00:59:25.140 --> 00:59:28.460
Nixon needed to get a gift for him, so he pulls open the drawer and is like, here's a watch.
1298
00:59:29.221 --> 00:59:32.960
I just imagine just like a gold ledger just being in that drawer.
1299
00:59:34.001 --> 00:59:35.220
That's just where it is.
1300
00:59:35.420 --> 00:59:38.580
I think you could give that to Trump but not actually have the private keys on there.
1301
00:59:38.682 --> 00:59:39.740
Just say they're on there.
1302
00:59:40.440 --> 00:59:41.637
And he would be pretty happy with that.
1303
00:59:42.322 --> 00:59:43.137
He'd hold it up.
1304
00:59:45.087 --> 00:59:45.540
Oh, my God.
1305
00:59:45.680 --> 00:59:46.118
All right, guys.
1306
00:59:46.241 --> 00:59:46.840
Got to end it there.
1307
00:59:46.960 --> 00:59:48.000
You know crypto is risky.
1308
00:59:48.100 --> 00:59:49.020
You could lose what you put in.
1309
00:59:49.180 --> 00:59:50.140
But we are headed west.
1310
00:59:50.321 --> 00:59:51.060
This is the frontier.
1311
00:59:51.421 --> 00:59:52.020
Not for everyone.
1312
00:59:52.340 --> 00:59:53.900
But we're glad you're with us on the Bankless Journey.
1313
00:59:54.200 --> 00:59:54.680
Thanks a lot.
1314
00:59:58.629 --> 01:00:02.829
We'll see you next time.
1
00:00:04.283 --> 00:00:04.563
Thank you.
2
00:00:30.180 --> 00:00:32.765
This week, which also caused a bump in the crypto markets.
3
00:00:32.845 --> 00:00:34.268
The fight's not quite over yet.
4
00:00:34.308 --> 00:00:36.672
There are some still some hurdles that we need to get over.
5
00:00:37.013 --> 00:00:40.839
What is left to get clarity signed by the new date of July 4th?
6
00:00:41.521 --> 00:00:43.267
It's also layoff season, it seems like.
7
00:00:43.327 --> 00:00:45.434
Big announcement from Coinbase, laying off 14%
8
00:00:47.140 --> 00:00:48.023
of its staff.
9
00:00:48.224 --> 00:00:50.513
But at the same time, we've got fundraise season.
10
00:00:50.653 --> 00:00:52.420
Two multi-billion dollar VC
11
00:00:52.681 --> 00:00:54.949
raises deployed directly into crypto.
12
00:00:55.290 --> 00:00:56.755
What's the counterbalance here?
13
00:00:57.177 --> 00:00:58.100
What's going to outweigh the
14
00:00:58.180 --> 00:00:58.401
other?
15
00:00:58.542 --> 00:01:01.512
Also, David, Michael Saylor, is he selling?
16
00:01:01.532 --> 00:01:02.536
Did he say that?
17
00:01:02.556 --> 00:01:03.640
Speaking of raising funds.
18
00:01:05.501 --> 00:01:10.960
We also have an update on the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, the US Strategic Reserve, and David,
19
00:01:11.261 --> 00:01:13.460
Ethereum Layer 1, it might be back, David.
20
00:01:13.680 --> 00:01:13.788
Okay.
21
00:01:14.100 --> 00:01:15.620
And that's a thing that you wanted to happen.
22
00:01:15.760 --> 00:01:16.760
You were talking about scaling the L1.
23
00:01:16.841 --> 00:01:18.360
I do want the Layer 1 to come back.
24
00:01:18.562 --> 00:01:19.520
It looks like it's scaling.
25
00:01:19.700 --> 00:01:22.800
There was a meeting of the devs in the Arctic Circle.
26
00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:24.080
This is real, actually.
27
00:01:24.783 --> 00:01:26.740
And out of that comes more ETH scaling.
28
00:01:26.840 --> 00:01:28.240
We'll talk about all that and more.
29
00:01:28.340 --> 00:01:31.900
But first, let's get to crypto prices on the week.
30
00:01:31.960 --> 00:01:35.520
They've been okay, a little bit down at the time of recording.
31
00:01:35.621 --> 00:01:36.259
What are we looking at?
32
00:01:36.501 --> 00:01:37.780
Yeah, the morning of recording.
33
00:01:37.860 --> 00:01:41.057
But really, the week was pretty good for Bitcoin, up 4.5% this week.
34
00:01:41.860 --> 00:01:44.194
We cleared $80,000 yesterday with confidence.
35
00:01:45.340 --> 00:01:48.000
We got up to like $82,000 at the peak yesterday.
36
00:01:48.701 --> 00:01:51.400
A little bit below that at the time of recording, but still overall a good week.
37
00:01:52.363 --> 00:01:55.758
ETH up 1.2% on the week, a little bit more of a modest week for ETH.
38
00:01:56.521 --> 00:02:00.600
Like Ryan said, the markets are kind of like coming back a little bit off of its euphoric highs yesterday.
39
00:02:01.481 --> 00:02:05.840
If you were on Twitter yesterday, there was just green euphoria everywhere.
40
00:02:06.021 --> 00:02:06.307
Oh, really?
41
00:02:06.328 --> 00:02:06.819
On your timeline?
42
00:02:06.860 --> 00:02:08.078
In the trad market, not in the crypto.
43
00:02:08.180 --> 00:02:08.480
In trad markets.
44
00:02:08.541 --> 00:02:09.271
In trad markets.
45
00:02:10.080 --> 00:02:12.360
Well, I do think trad markets are really the story here.
46
00:02:12.860 --> 00:02:14.800
This chart was really the chart of the week for me.
47
00:02:14.880 --> 00:02:17.140
This came from the DeFi report, Michael Nadeau.
48
00:02:17.720 --> 00:02:25.978
And he points out that 2026 is the most correlated Bitcoin has ever been to the NASDAQ.
49
00:02:27.463 --> 00:02:28.520
This is correlation by year.
50
00:02:28.660 --> 00:02:29.620
You're seeing a chart here.
51
00:02:30.240 --> 00:02:36.080
So we are more correlated right now with the NASDAQ on Bitcoin price than we ever have been.
52
00:02:36.220 --> 00:02:37.481
I have a question for how this chart works.
53
00:02:38.182 --> 00:02:48.992
If the Nasdaq goes up 1% and Bitcoin only goes up by like a quarter of a percent, but that relationship is consistent, is that still strong correlation?
54
00:02:49.192 --> 00:02:56.600
Or is it less correlation if Bitcoin is going up any number that's different than how much the Nasdaq went up by?
55
00:02:56.660 --> 00:02:57.100
Does that make sense?
56
00:02:57.561 --> 00:03:08.040
No, I'm not sure I understand your question, but a correlation means that obviously Bitcoin price goes up or down related in a correlated way.
57
00:03:08.400 --> 00:03:08.600
Yeah.
58
00:03:08.841 --> 00:03:10.000
In this case, the correlation coefficient is-
59
00:03:10.020 --> 00:03:16.460
I guess my question is like if the magnitudes are different because the NASDAQ is going up more aggressively than Bitcoin is.
60
00:03:16.521 --> 00:03:17.260
I don't think it measures that.
61
00:03:17.280 --> 00:03:18.619
But they are still both going up.
62
00:03:18.981 --> 00:03:20.220
Yeah, this chart doesn't measure that.
63
00:03:20.320 --> 00:03:20.434
Okay.
64
00:03:20.480 --> 00:03:26.900
It doesn't measure the magnitude, but it does say when stocks go up, when NASDAQ goes up, Bitcoin follows.
65
00:03:27.022 --> 00:03:28.120
That is confidently happening.
66
00:03:28.480 --> 00:03:28.594
Yes.
67
00:03:28.760 --> 00:03:32.533
And by the way, 2024, the correlation coefficient was 0.1 and now it's 0.48.
68
00:03:35.105 --> 00:03:35.218
Yeah.
69
00:03:35.820 --> 00:03:42.200
So this basically means that our destiny is in the stock market's hands right now.
70
00:03:42.240 --> 00:03:44.139
Does this kind of mean that we're kind of like cucked by AI?
71
00:03:44.823 --> 00:03:45.300
A little bit.
72
00:03:45.741 --> 00:03:51.540
It feels like buying Bitcoin right now feels like, at least in 2026, a worse play on the
73
00:03:51.560 --> 00:03:53.060
NASDAQ at this moment in time.
74
00:03:53.280 --> 00:03:56.500
It's not going to stay like that, but that's what the regime, that's the regime we're in
75
00:03:56.600 --> 00:04:00.500
Price exposure to the NASDAQ, but you're not getting as much as returns of the NASDAQ.
76
00:04:00.602 --> 00:04:01.000
That's right.
77
00:04:01.080 --> 00:04:01.920
That's a worse NASDAQ?
78
00:04:02.507 --> 00:04:03.260
I don't like saying that.
79
00:04:03.360 --> 00:04:04.540
I don't think that will always remain true.
80
00:04:04.640 --> 00:04:06.520
There were some crypto assets that outperformed.
81
00:04:06.580 --> 00:04:09.580
Bitcoin's new framing went from digital gold to a worse NASDAQ.
82
00:04:09.901 --> 00:04:10.639
That's a terrible brand.
83
00:04:10.660 --> 00:04:11.660
Yeah, you can take that, Michael Saylor.
84
00:04:11.760 --> 00:04:12.640
Take that and run with it.
85
00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:16.620
Zcash, a better NASDAQ, though, on the week.
86
00:04:17.083 --> 00:04:17.839
Dude, what are we looking at?
87
00:04:18.040 --> 00:04:19.960
Zcash has confidently returned.
88
00:04:20.121 --> 00:04:24.040
Not breaking all-time highs, but it is up to previous all-time highs.
89
00:04:24.460 --> 00:04:24.885
$570 for a Zcash.
90
00:04:26.741 --> 00:04:30.279
For some reason, privacy is just catching a bid, catching a narrative.
91
00:04:30.540 --> 00:04:34.480
There are some other like down market privacy coins like Railgun that also caught a bid this week.
92
00:04:35.261 --> 00:04:40.100
Also in the crypto world, VVV, which is Eric Voorhees Venice project, which is private AI.
93
00:04:40.460 --> 00:04:46.380
So it's both AI and privacy is right in the Venn diagram of where you want to be.
94
00:04:46.400 --> 00:04:46.920
Market loves that right now.
95
00:04:47.000 --> 00:04:47.482
Yeah.
96
00:04:47.543 --> 00:04:51.440
Hitting highs that it hasn't seen since token launch, which I don't even really count as like real price action.
97
00:04:51.560 --> 00:04:52.849
So $12.75 for a VVV token.
98
00:04:54.762 --> 00:04:56.520
What's the market cap on BVB right now?
99
00:04:56.743 --> 00:04:57.440
It's pretty impressive, right?
100
00:04:57.700 --> 00:05:01.199
Yeah, the market cap, this is not fully diluted, but almost $600 million market cap.
101
00:05:01.340 --> 00:05:03.220
A billion dollars fully diluted.
102
00:05:03.420 --> 00:05:03.507
Wow.
103
00:05:04.581 --> 00:05:06.875
Yeah, and the market cap Zcash right now, $9.4 billion.
104
00:05:08.100 --> 00:05:13.140
By the way, did you see Multicoin came out and said, we've been buying Zcash for the last couple of months.
105
00:05:13.945 --> 00:05:15.040
Ever since Kyle left.
106
00:05:17.363 --> 00:05:18.900
They're into the store value trade.
107
00:05:19.260 --> 00:05:23.060
Okay, let's talk about stocks for a second because that's the big story.
108
00:05:23.763 --> 00:05:28.040
let's look at it on your screen david because you're you know i'm the chart guy i'm the chart
109
00:05:28.100 --> 00:05:31.635
guy so this chart's going all the way back to like december q4 2025 but you can see see the
110
00:05:32.880 --> 00:05:40.360
bottom of the iran war and god we are just since the very bottom the spy is up 17 percent and that's
111
00:05:40.420 --> 00:05:47.119
across 39 days which is just nuts last week we were talking about how strong the spy was and it
112
00:05:47.420 --> 00:05:49.275
hit a record high, a monthly high of 7,200.
113
00:05:50.561 --> 00:05:51.351
And today we are at 7,360.
114
00:05:52.100 --> 00:05:52.260
Still strong.
115
00:05:53.205 --> 00:05:54.980
Not today, but yesterday at the all-time highs.
116
00:05:55.960 --> 00:05:56.960
NASDAQ's even bigger.
117
00:05:57.160 --> 00:05:58.709
NASDAQ gained 24% over that same time.
118
00:06:01.120 --> 00:06:02.940
And so, you know, these are indices.
119
00:06:03.220 --> 00:06:03.800
That's crazy.
120
00:06:04.141 --> 00:06:05.000
Can you just pause?
121
00:06:05.542 --> 00:06:08.998
Over, like, what, almost 40 days, not even 40 days,
122
00:06:10.101 --> 00:06:11.312
NASDAQ is up 25%?
123
00:06:12.940 --> 00:06:15.340
Yeah, 26% from peak to trough, trough to peak.
124
00:06:16.207 --> 00:06:16.458
What?
125
00:06:16.785 --> 00:06:17.640
That's just gnarly.
126
00:06:17.900 --> 00:06:18.398
That's gnarly.
127
00:06:18.961 --> 00:06:22.440
You really have to zoom out pretty far to put it in perspective.
128
00:06:23.520 --> 00:06:30.580
But the Iran war, it is up double than the Iran war took it down, if that makes sense in terms of size.
129
00:06:30.781 --> 00:06:31.840
Are there sectors that are winning?
130
00:06:32.222 --> 00:06:33.680
Remember we were talking about the SaaSpocalypse.
131
00:06:34.061 --> 00:06:35.320
That's still getting blown away.
132
00:06:35.661 --> 00:06:38.840
I saw in the Mag7, Google just crushed it in terms of earnings.
133
00:06:39.201 --> 00:06:43.940
Google briefly took over NVIDIA as the world's most valuable company.
134
00:06:43.940 --> 00:06:45.580
That is no longer true at the moment of recording.
135
00:06:45.700 --> 00:06:50.620
nvidia is back on top but google had a big day yesterday so like the sector that is really
136
00:06:50.700 --> 00:06:55.420
leading the market is semiconductors so semiconductors are up 12 and a half percent
137
00:06:55.681 --> 00:07:00.940
over the last two weeks yeah which is nuts and so that who is that that's nvidia that's intel
138
00:07:01.381 --> 00:07:08.620
intel's up 60 over the last two months amd is up big uh so anything that's chip related sandisk is
139
00:07:08.781 --> 00:07:12.020
putting in a record right like it is the best performing stock over the last 12 months and it's
140
00:07:12.181 --> 00:07:12.943
all AI related.
141
00:07:13.264 --> 00:07:17.740
The second best performing sector, Ryan, is infrastructure, industrials.
142
00:07:18.280 --> 00:07:25.978
And that is a combo of conflict defense companies, but also AI CapEx build out companies.
143
00:07:26.179 --> 00:07:26.539
So also
144
00:07:26.981 --> 00:07:29.494
the correct Venn diagram to be in, in this particular moment.
145
00:07:29.775 --> 00:07:30.680
And those two sectors are
146
00:07:30.680 --> 00:07:31.543
just leading the market.
147
00:07:31.604 --> 00:07:35.760
And so really what's happening is AI is dragging the whole entire
148
00:07:35.860 --> 00:07:37.386
market up in a very big way.
149
00:07:38.310 --> 00:07:39.835
Industrials is also contributing.
150
00:07:40.016 --> 00:07:41.120
Financials is a wash,
151
00:07:41.262 --> 00:07:42.480
like a lot of other stuff is awash.
152
00:07:42.641 --> 00:07:43.940
And then things like utilities and energy,
153
00:07:44.060 --> 00:07:44.880
which is down on the week,
154
00:07:44.940 --> 00:07:45.400
which we'll talk about
155
00:07:45.420 --> 00:07:46.520
when we get to the Iran war section,
156
00:07:47.424 --> 00:07:48.880
that's dragging the rest of the market down,
157
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but it's just like not in any way
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that overshines AI.
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Well, thanks AI for bringing Bitcoin above 80K.
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Corporate earnings were part of the story here, right?
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I mean, what's that like overperformance?
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Was it 84% of all corporate earnings
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this quarter beat analyst estimates?
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So we're in earnings seasons at the moment.
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63% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings so far this quarter.
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Like you said, 85% of them have beaten earnings.
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And this isn't like they eked out a earnings beat.
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No, they crushed.
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They, like, broadly, they crushed.
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Companies are reporting 20% earnings above estimates on average.
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And also, this marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.
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So, corporate returns, corporate earnings, strong.
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Yeah.
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You know why?
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It's all in the back of AI, right?
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Anthropic is a huge company in this.
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You know, Anthropic locked a deal with SpaceX to get more compute.
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so compute was a limiter.
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I mean, part of this story is,
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I can tell you that my demand for AI tokens is insatiable.
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I'm consuming more tokens than I ever have.
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Oh my God.
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I ran out yesterday for like this fourth or fifth time.
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Fourth or fifth time over what period of time?
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This year, like last month.
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Okay, I am now running out.
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So I do $50 increments.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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I'm running out two to three times a day.
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Dude, you're just pulling out the credit cards,
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like swiping it again.
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well i did my first 250 purchase today because you get on anthropic you get a bigger discount
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the larger you pay yeah so i was like oh i mean no i'm gonna use it but it's uh i don't know if
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it's becoming a problem it's just so damn useful i think i'm channeling it into something that's
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productive yeah i absolutely do but i my demand is insatiable and i gotta think like if the rest
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of the market is doing this as well it's kind of dawning on everyone that this can make them
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more productive, that this can save them time, that this can drive revenue and efficiency.
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Everyone's demand is insatiable.
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That's what's causing all of the overperformance in the AI boom
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here.
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So there's been a ton of conversation of just like the AI bubble, the AI bubble,
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it's all a bubble.
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It's going to come crashing down.
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Anthropic earnings are growth, revenue
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growth is up 80x in Q1.
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That's never happened.
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That was not the dot-com boom.
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What the f, dude?
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80x earnings and year over year growth in revenue and usage in q1 2026 can you say the words this
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time is different like i i don't want to say those words but like this is a different story
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i've never seen this before in markets i mean this goes back to the debate of like
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we did this debate on the on bank list like is ai like normal technology or is it a fundamental
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paradigm shift.
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The thing is- ADX earnings year over year, wild.
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All I can say is just, it's not about reading headlines.
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I think that the closest thing any
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investor can do is look at how they're actually using it.
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And my demand, my use, the utility to me
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has only gone up and to the right.
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And so until that stops happening-
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That's not a narrative.
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This is my lived experience.
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You agree, right?
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I'm not crazy.
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And you see some of the output of like that,
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Some of the ways I'm using it with AI.
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I'm not in some kind of AI psychosis.
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It's useful?
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Is it useful?
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Yeah.
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Yeah.
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All right.
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Yeah.
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I mean, so we can actually kind of take a look at
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Anthropix valuation in the market from various derivatives.
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This is on Hyperliquid.
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Anthropix coming in just shy of $1.2 trillion in the private market.
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This is all implied.
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He's not actually trading shares.
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This is a derivative, but it's useful.
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It's directionally useful.
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uh 1.2 trillion as a pre-ipo valuation uh bitcoin is 1.6 trillion what anthropic is almost a bitcoin
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dude what does that is that is bitcoin cheap or is anthropic just that damn good bitcoin is
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definitely cheap what would you buy at this price what would you rather own at this price would you
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rather own at the same price bitcoin and anthropic which seems like you know total market cap is
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about the same, which would you rather buy right now?
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Oh, that is a really good question.
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I don't really like, I like buying Bitcoin in trillions because of just what it is.
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Yeah.
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I
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don't like buying any equity in trillions unless it's like in a retirement savings context, like
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Google, for example, whatever that is, like 4 trillion.
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But I feel safe with that.
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Well, good
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news, David, you can't actually buy it, right?
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You can own a little perp.
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Yeah, right.
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Why are you
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even bothering me with this question.
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But it's private.
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You get none of this until they go
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public and they IPO on retail, dump on retail.
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So the question is, is all of this getting a
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little bit too frothy?
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There are definitely some people who say yes.
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So this is a tweet from Jason
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Goepfert.
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Is that how you say his name?
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Goepfert?
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Sure.
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Okay.
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He said, today will be the second
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consecutive day the S&P 500 closes at a record high with more than 4% of its stocks hitting 52
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week lows.
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Okay, so two data points here.
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Second day, the S&P closes record high with more than
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4% of its stocks hitting 52 week lows.
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And he says, anyone want to guess the only other time
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in 100 years this has happened?
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And there's a book called 1929 by Andrew Ross Sorkin in the tweet.
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What's the point he's making?
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I think I would be more scared if all equities were going up
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into the right, but if some equities are going up into the right and up or going down, to me,
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that's like, yes, that's how the market ought to work.
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Somebody is clearly being rational somewhere.
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I feel like this is just maybe two data points that he found on 1929 that are mapped to today.
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You can do a lot with two data points.
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But, okay, there are other better, let's say, bear cases.
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One is just like, we know what's
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happening with US federal debt, don't we?
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This has got to hit us.
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I saw last week, David, that
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this is the first time since 1946.
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You remember what happened in 1946?
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Yeah, I was there.
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Yeah, okay.
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In one of David's previous lives.
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The US had just fought a war.
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And so all the war bonds,
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all the debt, we just passed the federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP, 100%.
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And the only time we've ever been higher was 1946.
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So that just means that the government owes the public a lot of money?
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That's right.
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The government debt has never been higher is what that means.
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We're at wartime level debts.
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The level of debt that it took to go defeat Hitler and the Nazis, that's the level of debt we're in right now.
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And look, look at this.
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We did this in 2000, the year 2000, which is in our lifetimes.
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We were at 31%.
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Okay.
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So since the year 2000, we went to 100% of federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP.
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What did we spend it all on?
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What did we do with all that money?
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What did we get out of that?
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I mean, there were some wars.
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It wasn't a World War II, but where else did it go?
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Yeah, I don't know, man.
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Okay.
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That's a good question.
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That's the debt story.
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You also have firms like Berkshire Hathaway.
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They have announced their cash balance is now up to a record, almost $400 billion.
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They are aggressively selling into the market, which is what they do when markets go up.
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Markets go up, Berkshire sells.
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Markets go up even more, they sell even more.
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But like there is an acceleration here.
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Look, this is the 14th consecutive net quarterly sale.
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14 consecutive sales.
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They've been selling into this market for a while.
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And the cash on reserve they have is above 30%.
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This is Warren Buffett.
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This is what he says about the market.
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I want to play this for you, David.
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What does this feel like to you?
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Does it feel expensive?
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Does it feel like there are opportunities in some places?
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It feels like, you know, I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached.
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And people can move between the church and casino.
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And I would say there are more people in the church and more people in the casino.
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But the casino has gotten very attractive to people.
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The casino has gotten very attractive to people, is what Buffett says.
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This is the reason for their cash position.
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Stocks are not cheap.
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He said in his 60 years of investing, there's only been about five years that felt inexpensive
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to him and cheap.
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So he is absolutely playing the long game.
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Does not like the price of stocks right now.
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Does he have time left to play the long game?
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He's a legend, dude.
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Warren Buffett is 95 years old.
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Imagine being as coherent as that at 95.
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Look, he's built a legacy.
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Berkshire, he's playing the long game.
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But like, yeah, legendary investor.
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So, I mean, what do you think?
356
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Are we frothy or like, is the AI token demand insatiable?
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Is that going to pull everything else up?
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I'm not one to play the long game.
359
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I'm one to be in the market.
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That is the long game.
361
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What are you talking about?
362
00:16:52.163 --> 00:16:52.440
I guess.
363
00:16:52.701 --> 00:16:58.460
But he's selling because he's like, these are expensive and I'm going to wait for these things to be cheaper.
364
00:16:59.161 --> 00:17:03.020
And I'm in, we are in unprecedented times.
365
00:17:03.320 --> 00:17:04.700
AI is novel and unique.
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You're scared to be out.
367
00:17:05.761 --> 00:17:06.420
I'm scared to be out.
368
00:17:06.500 --> 00:17:08.260
I'm always scared to be out.
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I don't want cash.
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I want country.
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00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:12.460
Well, why would you want cash?
372
00:17:12.946 --> 00:17:13.900
Look at the cash chart.
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Look at the debt to GDP.
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Yeah, man.
375
00:17:16.163 --> 00:17:16.798
I understand that.
376
00:17:17.002 --> 00:17:17.699
I understand that too.
377
00:17:17.940 --> 00:17:18.060
Yeah.
378
00:17:18.712 --> 00:17:18.920
All right.
379
00:17:19.020 --> 00:17:21.620
Well, we'll have to see how this all plays out.
380
00:17:21.660 --> 00:17:22.780
But what about Iran?
381
00:17:22.881 --> 00:17:23.660
What's going on there?
382
00:17:23.952 --> 00:17:24.140
Yeah.
383
00:17:24.941 --> 00:17:28.420
Both not a lot and something at least somewhat notable.
384
00:17:29.080 --> 00:17:33.840
And so Monday, Trump announced Project Freedom, which is basically an attempt to open the
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the Strait of Hormuz by brute force.
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00:17:35.566 --> 00:17:39.220
He said that the U.S. will just manually guide and protect
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00:17:39.320 --> 00:17:40.948
ships to assist them in crossing the strait.
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00:17:41.692 --> 00:17:43.038
Iran, of course, didn't like that.
389
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They really
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00:17:43.440 --> 00:17:44.667
depend on the strait being closed.
391
00:17:44.848 --> 00:17:47.080
So they sent missiles and drones towards the U.S. Navy,
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which the Navy intercepted.
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00:17:48.464 --> 00:17:52.860
Iran also sent missiles and drones to strike a UAE oil facility.
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One actually did land and cause a fire, which I think is what might have caused Trump to put a
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00:17:58.840 --> 00:18:02.070
pause on Project Freedom just less than 48 hours later.
396
00:18:03.094 --> 00:18:05.080
He said that we are now back to talking
397
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in Pakistan to get a deal done with Iran, which is basically where we stand now.
398
00:18:09.578 --> 00:18:10.120
After a quick
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00:18:10.220 --> 00:18:14.419
skirmish in the straight, we are now back to pausing while a deal is potentially being
400
00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:16.125
formulated and discussed.
401
00:18:16.246 --> 00:18:20.340
And so it seems nothing has really changed this week in Iran's trade
402
00:18:20.420 --> 00:18:21.465
over moves still closed.
403
00:18:21.585 --> 00:18:22.991
We are still talking about a deal.
404
00:18:23.011 --> 00:18:24.799
The deal is being dangled in front
405
00:18:25.040 --> 00:18:27.300
of investors by Trump as it is every single week.
406
00:18:27.688 --> 00:18:27.855
Okay.
407
00:18:28.200 --> 00:18:32.960
I'll kind of propose that like, even though nothing's really changed, something kind of
408
00:18:33.041 --> 00:18:34.300
has fundamentally changed.
409
00:18:34.482 --> 00:18:34.840
What's that?
410
00:18:35.100 --> 00:18:37.760
And that is oil is down big this week.
411
00:18:37.804 --> 00:18:37.938
Sure.
412
00:18:38.321 --> 00:18:41.800
Oil is down 15%, 15 to 18%, depending on where you look.
413
00:18:42.245 --> 00:18:42.417
Why?
414
00:18:43.726 --> 00:18:44.418
Because it is.
415
00:18:44.881 --> 00:18:45.980
Because, yeah, I don't know.
416
00:18:46.101 --> 00:18:46.658
I don't know why.
417
00:18:46.900 --> 00:18:47.479
It just is.
418
00:18:47.762 --> 00:18:48.480
And that's important.
419
00:18:48.801 --> 00:18:54.660
And so if oil is down 15% and 18% respectively between WTI and Brent, that's really good
420
00:18:54.742 --> 00:18:55.660
for the global economy.
421
00:18:55.800 --> 00:18:57.440
So pain is being felt less.
422
00:18:58.462 --> 00:19:00.574
10-year yields down 2.7% over the week.
423
00:19:01.921 --> 00:19:04.120
Also great for the United States
424
00:19:04.322 --> 00:19:05.880
not experiencing as much pain.
425
00:19:06.260 --> 00:19:09.160
And so where did we leave things off last week?
426
00:19:09.240 --> 00:19:10.158
It's like, oh, this is a-
427
00:19:10.240 --> 00:19:11.180
It's a pain tolerance game.
428
00:19:11.220 --> 00:19:11.880
It's pain tolerance.
429
00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:14.900
And with the equities at all time high,
430
00:19:15.080 --> 00:19:16.860
yields down and oil down,
431
00:19:16.960 --> 00:19:17.260
all of a sudden-
432
00:19:17.260 --> 00:19:18.300
Trump feels less pain.
433
00:19:18.600 --> 00:19:21.240
The Iran is still feeling all of the same pain
434
00:19:21.281 --> 00:19:22.040
that it was prior
435
00:19:22.040 --> 00:19:23.520
because they're isolated and cut off.
436
00:19:23.561 --> 00:19:25.100
and the rest of the world is feeling less pain.
437
00:19:25.400 --> 00:19:26.220
And so that's what's changed.
438
00:19:26.680 --> 00:19:29.078
Well, I guess we'll check in on the week to week pain level.
439
00:19:29.380 --> 00:19:30.979
We'll check in on where the pain pendulum shifts next week.
440
00:19:31.761 --> 00:19:34.800
And just checking in on the polymarket that we usually do.
441
00:19:34.960 --> 00:19:40.678
So the odds of a permanent peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by June 30th,
442
00:19:41.420 --> 00:19:42.440
which, man, that's coming right up.
443
00:19:42.500 --> 00:19:42.939
We're almost there.
444
00:19:43.242 --> 00:19:44.860
It's 53%, so it's still pretty high.
445
00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:47.235
By the end of the year, 74% on polymarket.
446
00:19:48.200 --> 00:19:50.810
Notably, the June 30th date, 55%, as you said, is up 14% week over week.
447
00:19:53.381 --> 00:19:55.680
So a big green jump in that over the week.
448
00:19:56.240 --> 00:19:56.300
Okay.
449
00:19:56.480 --> 00:19:59.380
Well, I mean, Polymarket knows things that we don't somehow.
450
00:19:59.881 --> 00:20:03.800
So I'm sure that's a good sign for this being ended a little bit sooner.
451
00:20:04.661 --> 00:20:09.160
David, we got more to talk about, which is when will the Clarity Act actually happen?
452
00:20:09.240 --> 00:20:10.615
We have a date of July 4th.
453
00:20:11.540 --> 00:20:12.960
What's the probability that we hit that?
454
00:20:13.461 --> 00:20:17.480
Also, did the banks win that deal or did we get what we wanted out of it?
455
00:20:17.960 --> 00:20:19.780
Coinbase layoffs, we'll talk about that.
456
00:20:19.800 --> 00:20:27.160
And Saylor on the record, he said this, he intends possibly to sell Bitcoin in order to pay a dividend.
457
00:20:27.482 --> 00:20:28.296
But he used the S word sell.
458
00:20:28.560 --> 00:20:30.000
A sentence never uttered before by Michael Saylor.
459
00:20:30.502 --> 00:20:30.744
Yes.
460
00:20:30.804 --> 00:20:31.833
What does it all mean?
461
00:20:31.873 --> 00:20:32.680
We'll get to all that more.
462
00:20:33.040 --> 00:20:36.160
But before we do, we want to thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
463
00:20:36.540 --> 00:20:40.360
You would have never thought two years ago that you could soon be trading tokenized oil on MetaMask.
464
00:20:40.520 --> 00:20:41.083
But here we are.
465
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I've been using MetaMask since 2017, and we all remember buying NFTs with it in 2021.
466
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And now in 2026, if you haven't checked in on MetaMask recently, let me tell you,
467
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You can trade tokenized stocks, funds, and commodities, along with leveraged perpetuals,
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prediction markets, and even, yes, you can gaseously swap between crypto tokens across
469
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networks too.
470
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There's advanced security features like MEV and front-run protection, and even a debit
471
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card so you can actually spend your crypto directly at merchants all around the world.
472
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And it's all self-custodial.
473
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Everything you want to trade in one place.
474
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475
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Check out the new MetaMask.
476
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It's already on your phone or in the link below.
477
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Quick shout out to OKEx.
478
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They are live in the States building the new money app and Wall Street is taking notice.
479
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The parent company of the NYSE just invested at a $25 billion valuation and took a board seat.
480
00:21:26.280 --> 00:21:29.300
That's the New York Stock Exchange coming to crypto, not the other way around.
481
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And why OKEx?
482
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It's the only app combining a full centralized exchange and self-custody wallet in one place.
483
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484
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They support Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Base, and more.
486
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Millions of tokens, just a few clicks,
487
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and an infrastructure that processes trillions in transactions
488
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and keeps assets fully backed.
489
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OKEx users are set to get tokenized New York Stock Exchange stocks
490
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and derivatives later this year.
491
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TradFi and DeFi finally in the same app.
492
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Head to the link in the show notes, download OKEx,
493
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and see why it's the NYSE's go-to for going bankless in the United States.
494
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Not investment advice, services not available in New York and Texas.
495
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516
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517
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518
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Bitcoin back rates are based on cardholder assets on Coinbase.
519
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The Clarity Act got over a big hurdle this last week.
520
00:23:10.720 --> 00:23:15.260
we had a tweet from Senator Tom Tillis, who is one of the main senators pushing this forward.
521
00:23:15.981 --> 00:23:19.234
He tweeted out, we have worked in good faith and all sides.
522
00:23:19.696 --> 00:23:20.820
The result is a substantially
523
00:23:21.001 --> 00:23:22.806
improved consensus based product.
524
00:23:23.007 --> 00:23:26.940
Our compromise prohibits stablecoin rewards from resembling
525
00:23:27.161 --> 00:23:28.785
interest on bank deposits.
526
00:23:29.588 --> 00:23:31.674
Our core concern over deposit flight.
527
00:23:32.135 --> 00:23:33.840
Some in the banking industry may
528
00:23:33.981 --> 00:23:35.708
not want either of these things to happen.
529
00:23:35.808 --> 00:23:37.957
And we respectfully agree to disagree.
530
00:23:38.037 --> 00:23:38.760
But nonetheless,
531
00:23:38.760 --> 00:23:39.041
less.
532
00:23:40.024 --> 00:23:41.830
There seems to have been a compromise.
533
00:23:42.432 --> 00:23:43.536
We'll talk about the nuances there.
534
00:23:44.118 --> 00:23:44.880
But then we also
535
00:23:45.000 --> 00:23:49.332
have a date, a target date for signing by July 4th.
536
00:23:49.754 --> 00:23:52.020
And so we're not there yet, but that is kind
537
00:23:52.020 --> 00:23:52.945
of this- The 4th of July, really?
538
00:23:53.146 --> 00:23:53.991
Yeah, the 4th of July.
539
00:23:54.031 --> 00:23:55.720
Yeah, that is the date being projected
540
00:23:55.981 --> 00:24:01.120
and like, hey guys, everyone rally, get the troops, get the last bits of things debated on
541
00:24:01.301 --> 00:24:03.388
because we want this signed by July 4th.
542
00:24:04.211 --> 00:24:06.680
And so we're over this one potential hurdle.
543
00:24:07.700 --> 00:24:10.200
Well, where we left things, it was all about yield, right?
544
00:24:10.480 --> 00:24:13.400
And the banks wanted their yields back.
545
00:24:13.620 --> 00:24:18.940
They realized that they forgot to negotiate harder over the genius bill last week.
546
00:24:19.000 --> 00:24:20.320
And so they wanted kind of a do-over.
547
00:24:20.460 --> 00:24:24.780
And they didn't like the fact that Coinbase and other crypto exchanges could essentially
548
00:24:25.343 --> 00:24:27.858
give their users depositors stablecoin yield.
549
00:24:28.160 --> 00:24:29.460
Yeah, in a roundabout way.
550
00:24:29.560 --> 00:24:36.340
In our mind, the bankless take here has always been, look, guys, the banks are just taking
551
00:24:36.420 --> 00:24:36.903
the yield.
552
00:24:37.003 --> 00:24:39.214
They're trying to protect their monopoly interest.
553
00:24:39.315 --> 00:24:40.300
They don't have any good
554
00:24:40.461 --> 00:24:42.950
reason for keeping monopoly over that yield.
555
00:24:43.391 --> 00:24:44.496
And that remains true.
556
00:24:44.676 --> 00:24:45.700
This is why previously
557
00:24:45.881 --> 00:24:48.588
Coinbase backed out of the negotiation.
558
00:24:49.170 --> 00:24:52.379
Still, they are a powerful lobby group in DC.
559
00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:52.780
And in
560
00:24:52.860 --> 00:24:57.477
order to get things done, apparently you have to appease the banks in some way.
561
00:24:57.838 --> 00:24:58.340
So there was
562
00:24:58.440 --> 00:25:03.458
a compromise that seemed to have been reached over the stablecoin yield issue.
563
00:25:03.759 --> 00:25:04.120
It's somewhat
564
00:25:04.220 --> 00:25:04.923
nuanced though.
565
00:25:05.806 --> 00:25:09.440
We'll have to talk about who really won the issue, but what are the details
566
00:25:09.540 --> 00:25:09.741
here?
567
00:25:10.323 --> 00:25:15.260
So Faryar, the chief policy officer over at Coinbase, he tweeted out, in the end, the banks
568
00:25:15.320 --> 00:25:20.159
were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters, the ability for
569
00:25:20.400 --> 00:25:25.817
Americans to earn rewards based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks.
570
00:25:25.857 --> 00:25:26.680
And so big asterisk
571
00:25:26.740 --> 00:25:28.831
there, big, like that's the compromise here.
572
00:25:29.093 --> 00:25:29.716
Wait, what is that?
573
00:25:29.736 --> 00:25:30.520
Can you go over that again?
574
00:25:30.741 --> 00:25:37.260
So if the stable coins are just sitting there, they can't provide rewards.
575
00:25:37.380 --> 00:25:44.440
But if the stable coins are being used in some way, then possibly there's a backdoor to provide rewards to users.
576
00:25:44.743 --> 00:25:44.860
Yeah.
577
00:25:44.960 --> 00:25:47.920
So Alex Thorne, the tweet from Alex Thorne is probably most helpful here.
578
00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:50.740
He's the one who drilled right into the actual verbiage.
579
00:25:51.420 --> 00:25:59.240
He said, stable coin yield cannot be paid solely in connection with holding is the words.
580
00:25:59.701 --> 00:26:05.800
So idle balances or in a manner economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposits.
581
00:26:06.000 --> 00:26:12.400
And so I think that wording is like, if it looks like a bank deposit, you can't pay yield.
582
00:26:12.640 --> 00:26:13.480
I wonder what that means.
583
00:26:13.840 --> 00:26:18.760
So if it's probably if it's just on Coinbase sitting in a custody custodial Coinbase account.
584
00:26:18.900 --> 00:26:27.040
If you're doing set and forget behavior, I think the banks will then argue that that is like a bank deposit and you cannot pay yield on that.
585
00:26:27.341 --> 00:26:30.252
What if the stable coins are on base in DeFi or something like that?
586
00:26:30.292 --> 00:26:32.560
That does not look like bank deposits.
587
00:26:32.680 --> 00:26:34.159
Yeah, that doesn't look like bank deposits.
588
00:26:34.800 --> 00:26:34.940
Right?
589
00:26:35.440 --> 00:26:35.620
Yeah.
590
00:26:35.761 --> 00:26:38.685
I mean, I think this is where it gets very squishy.
591
00:26:39.687 --> 00:26:47.860
And so what is banned in Section 404, this is the section we're talking about, covered parties paying interest or yield to U.S. customers solely for holding stable coins.
592
00:26:48.000 --> 00:26:58.600
What's allowed is, these are the words, activity-based or transaction-based rewards, payments, transfers, market-making, staking, governance, or loyalty programs.
593
00:26:59.400 --> 00:27:08.460
And this will get updated within one year by the SEC, CFTC, or Treasury joint rulemaking about more clarity around that.
594
00:27:08.480 --> 00:27:12.060
Oh, the SEC and CFTC and Treasury get to jointly rulemake.
595
00:27:12.260 --> 00:27:12.581
Yes.
596
00:27:12.682 --> 00:27:18.457
And so this issue is in some way kind of being punted, but with a pretty clear flag
597
00:27:19.561 --> 00:27:24.740
planting by the banks saying, if it looks like a bank and it quacks like a bank, you guys don't
598
00:27:24.800 --> 00:27:25.704
get to pay yields.
599
00:27:26.366 --> 00:27:29.820
But then there are these words, activity-based, transaction-based rewards,
600
00:27:30.260 --> 00:27:33.874
payment transfers, market making, staking, governance, loyalty programs.
601
00:27:34.115 --> 00:27:34.597
And then within
602
00:27:35.781 --> 00:27:39.635
one year, the SEC and CFTC and Treasury will do joint rulemaking.
603
00:27:39.755 --> 00:27:41.000
Which by the way, those are our
604
00:27:41.100 --> 00:27:41.401
guys.
605
00:27:41.682 --> 00:27:42.425
Those are our guys.
606
00:27:42.585 --> 00:27:44.913
Right now they're very crypto friendly, right?
607
00:27:44.954 --> 00:27:45.134
Yeah.
608
00:27:45.395 --> 00:27:45.676
Okay.
609
00:27:45.756 --> 00:27:46.780
So that's why
610
00:27:46.940 --> 00:27:51.780
Coinbase must have thought that this is a compromise that they could somewhat deal with.
611
00:27:52.061 --> 00:27:52.482
Okay.
612
00:27:52.563 --> 00:27:57.580
So my understanding though, is that this issue is kind of closed, but not all the way
613
00:27:57.660 --> 00:27:58.061
closed.
614
00:27:58.342 --> 00:28:04.180
There was a report from Eleanor Tarrant that banking trade groups plan to actually revamp
615
00:28:04.280 --> 00:28:07.171
and ramp up outreach to additional members in the coming days.
616
00:28:07.773 --> 00:28:09.519
And so they're not quite sure that
617
00:28:09.720 --> 00:28:10.894
this is enough of a closure.
618
00:28:11.380 --> 00:28:13.479
I think what they're doing is they're kind of just
619
00:28:13.802 --> 00:28:15.760
like may drawing the lines,
620
00:28:16.000 --> 00:28:17.620
but then also punting the fight.
621
00:28:18.360 --> 00:28:18.540
Okay.
622
00:28:18.881 --> 00:28:21.240
And so there's like, yeah, no idle yield.
623
00:28:21.380 --> 00:28:23.000
If it looks like a bank deposit, you can't do it.
624
00:28:23.201 --> 00:28:25.180
But then also we're going to give this up
625
00:28:25.200 --> 00:28:26.120
for interpretation later,
626
00:28:26.280 --> 00:28:29.100
which is why it feels like we kind of got over the hurdle
627
00:28:29.763 --> 00:28:32.820
by simply moving the hurdle to a different place.
628
00:28:33.446 --> 00:28:33.739
I see.
629
00:28:33.900 --> 00:28:36.260
Now regulators get to decide if you have crypto friendly,
630
00:28:36.380 --> 00:28:37.020
they might do that.
631
00:28:37.100 --> 00:28:38.900
If you have anti-crypto, they might do that.
632
00:28:39.043 --> 00:28:39.740
Wow, that's fun.
633
00:28:39.860 --> 00:28:41.840
Okay, so did the banks win in your mind?
634
00:28:42.801 --> 00:28:43.860
It's TBD, dude.
635
00:28:44.283 --> 00:28:44.631
It is TBD.
636
00:28:45.400 --> 00:28:47.880
Partially because they got their line in the sand.
637
00:28:48.321 --> 00:28:50.680
As in like you can't just have naive bank deposits,
638
00:28:50.780 --> 00:28:52.620
which is kind of what I was excited about.
639
00:28:52.760 --> 00:28:56.840
Like going bankless, doing like taking banking away from the banks,
640
00:28:56.920 --> 00:28:57.620
like all this kind of stuff.
641
00:28:58.721 --> 00:29:01.860
The simple path to get there seems to be closed.
642
00:29:02.000 --> 00:29:03.360
Well, maybe it's still there for you, David.
643
00:29:03.360 --> 00:29:08.620
The creative, complex, a little bit convoluted path definitely still open.
644
00:29:09.061 --> 00:29:11.920
Yeah, like if it's on base, for instance, and it's being used in DeFi.
645
00:29:11.920 --> 00:29:14.520
What does loyalty participation look like?
646
00:29:14.822 --> 00:29:15.740
I mean, you look pretty loyal.
647
00:29:15.880 --> 00:29:16.300
You're a pretty loyal guy.
648
00:29:16.381 --> 00:29:17.620
Yeah, I look loyal.
649
00:29:18.763 --> 00:29:20.240
I'll press a button every now and then.
650
00:29:20.401 --> 00:29:21.417
Remember to claim your rewards.
651
00:29:21.721 --> 00:29:22.955
I'll be as loyal as you want for 4%.
652
00:29:24.044 --> 00:29:26.520
And now you get your hand and also vote on something, you know?
653
00:29:27.120 --> 00:29:27.400
That's right.
654
00:29:27.521 --> 00:29:27.840
That's right.
655
00:29:27.900 --> 00:29:28.054
Okay.
656
00:29:28.381 --> 00:29:30.620
There's still some stuff left to do here, though.
657
00:29:31.080 --> 00:29:34.880
You remember the developer in DeFi protections that was kind of baked into earlier versions?
658
00:29:35.041 --> 00:29:37.100
It was called the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
659
00:29:37.421 --> 00:29:38.846
care a lot about this.
660
00:29:38.906 --> 00:29:40.250
Coin centers talked about this.
661
00:29:40.972 --> 00:29:42.999
That is still a little TBD.
662
00:29:43.019 --> 00:29:43.360
They're going
663
00:29:43.360 --> 00:29:45.248
to have some negotiations about it this week.
664
00:29:45.288 --> 00:29:48.100
It doesn't seem so contentious, but if we got that
665
00:29:48.160 --> 00:29:50.428
in clarity bill, that's a huge win.
666
00:29:50.528 --> 00:29:52.335
So still crossing our fingers on that.
667
00:29:52.776 --> 00:29:53.740
And also this
668
00:29:53.841 --> 00:29:56.316
might actually be the thing that derails the entire clarity bill.
669
00:29:56.337 --> 00:29:56.880
Yeah, all of this might
670
00:29:56.920 --> 00:29:57.924
be just for nothing.
671
00:29:58.346 --> 00:30:00.293
The ethics provision, David.
672
00:30:00.394 --> 00:30:02.020
What's the ethics provision, Ryan?
673
00:30:02.020 --> 00:30:07.340
There are some senators that are hardlining on Trump's, the Trump family crypto activity.
674
00:30:08.482 --> 00:30:12.380
The White House is basically saying, hey, like there can't be conflict of interest here.
675
00:30:12.700 --> 00:30:16.320
You have to tone down the world liberty finance, probably all of these things.
676
00:30:16.420 --> 00:30:16.580
Right.
677
00:30:16.920 --> 00:30:20.780
And the White House says it's not going to accept any language like this because, of
678
00:30:20.840 --> 00:30:23.400
course, the president doesn't want to be individually singled out.
679
00:30:23.900 --> 00:30:30.140
So this is another thing that requires a different type of compromise in order for the Clarity
680
00:30:30.284 --> 00:30:30.840
Act to go through.
681
00:30:31.083 --> 00:30:32.439
It might derail the whole thing.
682
00:30:33.300 --> 00:30:39.779
Polymarket, David, has shot up, though, to a probability of, at the time of recording, mid-60s.
683
00:30:40.520 --> 00:30:43.114
So it got as high as almost 70% in terms of Clarity Acting.
684
00:30:44.743 --> 00:30:47.480
It was down like 45% not terribly long ago.
685
00:30:47.683 --> 00:30:47.999
It was.
686
00:30:48.120 --> 00:30:50.198
I mean, just last week it was down in that.
687
00:30:50.780 --> 00:30:51.767
So we went from 46% to 66%.
688
00:30:54.052 --> 00:30:54.199
Yep.
689
00:30:54.504 --> 00:30:54.680
Yep.
690
00:30:54.840 --> 00:30:55.920
So this is pretty good.
691
00:30:56.141 --> 00:30:56.820
I like these odds.
692
00:30:56.920 --> 00:30:57.479
It's much better.
693
00:30:57.600 --> 00:30:58.560
It's better than a coin flip.
694
00:30:59.065 --> 00:31:00.540
And I think it's pretty accurate.
695
00:31:00.783 --> 00:31:02.399
So we'll hope for that.
696
00:31:03.021 --> 00:31:07.540
Dude, the real question is, what are the odds that Donald Trump refuses to budge?
697
00:31:07.560 --> 00:31:09.400
He's like, no, I like my grifting.
698
00:31:10.304 --> 00:31:11.519
Don't take my grifting away from me.
699
00:31:12.524 --> 00:31:12.840
I don't know.
700
00:31:12.940 --> 00:31:18.200
Maybe he'll have some sort of grift loophole still, you know, just if he's actively grifting.
701
00:31:18.260 --> 00:31:19.100
Based on loyalty rewards.
702
00:31:19.781 --> 00:31:20.210
Based on loyalty.
703
00:31:22.603 --> 00:31:24.920
There were some layoffs this week from Coinbase as well.
704
00:31:25.240 --> 00:31:26.790
They let go of 14% of their staff.
705
00:31:28.480 --> 00:31:33.780
At the same time, we have two pretty large multi-billion dollar VC raises.
706
00:31:33.960 --> 00:31:34.679
Tell us about this.
707
00:31:35.100 --> 00:31:38.380
Yeah, so this is actually kind of a market cycle right of passage.
708
00:31:38.600 --> 00:31:42.040
Coinbase has laid off employees at the bottom of every single cycle.
709
00:31:42.260 --> 00:31:43.194
I remember this happening in 2018.
710
00:31:43.880 --> 00:31:44.654
This happened in 2022.
711
00:31:45.220 --> 00:31:46.434
And now this is happening again in 2026.
712
00:31:47.180 --> 00:31:48.570
As you said, 14% workforce reduction.
713
00:31:50.440 --> 00:31:55.179
Talked about AI saying like we're rebuilding the company to be less layered.
714
00:31:55.700 --> 00:32:03.780
So five maximum layers from Brian down to the bottom, whatever you call it, the bottom of the org chart, five layers max.
715
00:32:04.121 --> 00:32:05.400
And also no peer managers.
716
00:32:06.181 --> 00:32:08.640
So there are no peer managers at Coinbase, according to Brian.
717
00:32:08.901 --> 00:32:11.060
Everyone is at least somewhat of an individual contributor.
718
00:32:12.584 --> 00:32:13.980
I don't think this was AI, though.
719
00:32:14.240 --> 00:32:15.340
I mean, I think it was like-
720
00:32:15.380 --> 00:32:17.358
I think AI is a useful scapegoat.
721
00:32:18.500 --> 00:32:19.560
It makes everything more tolerable.
722
00:32:20.341 --> 00:32:22.480
Yeah, and I don't even know if it's a scapegoat, really.
723
00:32:23.043 --> 00:32:25.700
He didn't say that this was the reason necessarily.
724
00:32:25.840 --> 00:32:29.019
He just said, we're going to take this opportunity for efficiencies, right?
725
00:32:29.400 --> 00:32:31.520
But to your point, they've done this every single cycle.
726
00:32:32.000 --> 00:32:36.120
There have been 1,200 layoffs in crypto in the past five months.
727
00:32:36.940 --> 00:32:37.679
So Coinbase 700.
728
00:32:37.720 --> 00:32:38.380
Coinbase being the big one.
729
00:32:38.881 --> 00:32:39.860
Yeah, that's the big one.
730
00:32:39.980 --> 00:32:46.340
And to your point, fun fact, these layoffs previously from Coinbase have marked the bottom.
731
00:32:47.180 --> 00:32:49.628
So June 2022, 18% of the workforce, they laid off.
732
00:32:53.340 --> 00:32:55.240
Wasn't quite the bottom, but pretty close.
733
00:32:55.341 --> 00:32:56.440
Yeah, pretty close, pretty close.
734
00:32:56.560 --> 00:32:57.100
So this happens.
735
00:32:57.902 --> 00:33:00.880
I won't call it a bottom ticker, but it is a bottom signal.
736
00:33:01.283 --> 00:33:02.040
I agree, I agree.
737
00:33:02.500 --> 00:33:04.360
Now, let's talk about the raises, though,
738
00:33:04.581 --> 00:33:05.940
because this is the other side of that.
739
00:33:05.960 --> 00:33:07.660
So if that's the bearish news, layoffs,
740
00:33:08.401 --> 00:33:09.980
there were some pretty big VC raises.
741
00:33:10.760 --> 00:33:13.800
A16Z and Han Ventures, is that right?
742
00:33:14.080 --> 00:33:14.200
Yeah.
743
00:33:14.442 --> 00:33:16.214
And the total between them, $3.2 billion.
744
00:33:17.741 --> 00:33:19.140
Yeah, the timing of this was actually kind of funny.
745
00:33:19.480 --> 00:33:22.660
Han Ventures announced their $1 billion raise on Monday.
746
00:33:23.161 --> 00:33:26.958
And then Tuesday, A16Z comes in and says, we raised $2.2 billion.
747
00:33:27.581 --> 00:33:30.180
Chris Dixon just like dropping it.
748
00:33:30.700 --> 00:33:34.659
$3.2 billion is not a small amount of money by any standards.
749
00:33:34.860 --> 00:33:35.080
These are crypto funds.
750
00:33:35.200 --> 00:33:36.520
These are crypto funds.
751
00:33:36.600 --> 00:33:36.760
Okay.
752
00:33:37.080 --> 00:33:37.960
And they're not the only one.
753
00:33:38.141 --> 00:33:40.416
And so Dragonfly previously raised $650 billion.
754
00:33:41.160 --> 00:33:42.253
Parify raised $125 billion.
755
00:33:43.321 --> 00:33:44.993
Blockchain Capital is raising $700 million.
756
00:33:46.440 --> 00:33:50.698
Paradigm, which is not just crypto, it's also AI and robotics, $1.5 billion.
757
00:33:51.461 --> 00:33:52.880
So closing it on $6 billion.
758
00:33:54.302 --> 00:33:56.540
Crypto and now crypto-adjacent funds.
759
00:33:56.922 --> 00:33:59.600
And so you can't really be bearish.
760
00:34:00.770 --> 00:34:01.740
This is healthy for the industry.
761
00:34:02.020 --> 00:34:02.100
New capital.
762
00:34:02.501 --> 00:34:04.340
New capital, new round of startups.
763
00:34:05.580 --> 00:34:07.396
Refreshed for what it takes in 2026.
764
00:34:08.342 --> 00:34:11.600
I think kind of the big question is, what are these people deploying into?
765
00:34:12.060 --> 00:34:12.860
Well, did you read it?
766
00:34:13.041 --> 00:34:14.820
So it was new financial infrastructure.
767
00:34:14.960 --> 00:34:16.500
A lot of stable coins mentioned.
768
00:34:16.860 --> 00:34:16.972
Yeah.
769
00:34:17.220 --> 00:34:20.980
New assets and markets, agentic economy, that kind of thing mentioned.
770
00:34:21.140 --> 00:34:22.020
Things not mentioned.
771
00:34:22.300 --> 00:34:24.400
I didn't hear much DeFi, for instance.
772
00:34:24.780 --> 00:34:24.860
No.
773
00:34:25.020 --> 00:34:30.180
Now, Hasib reminded everyone that all of these funds, including, by the way, Dragonfly,
774
00:34:30.641 --> 00:34:31.620
their mandate is broad.
775
00:34:31.720 --> 00:34:39.840
So they can totally deploy into Bitcoin and Ether and Zcash and any other liquid crypto token out there as well.
776
00:34:39.940 --> 00:34:44.180
But that was not the stated reason for the fundraise this time.
777
00:34:44.620 --> 00:34:47.740
No Layer 1s, no DeFi apps, no NFT platforms.
778
00:34:47.761 --> 00:34:48.440
Notably missing.
779
00:34:48.781 --> 00:34:49.330
What else?
780
00:34:49.737 --> 00:34:49.880
Yeah.
781
00:34:50.323 --> 00:34:50.497
Yeah.
782
00:34:51.141 --> 00:34:55.340
Lots of tokenization, lots of Wall Street stuff, lots of neobanks, lots of payment stuff.
783
00:34:55.502 --> 00:34:56.693
As you'd expect in 2026.
784
00:34:58.321 --> 00:35:08.618
David, Michael Saylor said the words out loud, the thing he should never say, that he was thinking about maybe at some point selling some Bitcoin.
785
00:35:08.638 --> 00:35:10.100
This was all over my feed this week.
786
00:35:10.140 --> 00:35:10.747
Why would he sell Bitcoin?
787
00:35:10.767 --> 00:35:11.940
What would he need to sell Bitcoin for?
788
00:35:12.241 --> 00:35:16.900
I think he's got to pay some of the people that are lending him funds, David.
789
00:35:17.080 --> 00:35:18.560
Lending him funds to buy Bitcoin.
790
00:35:18.741 --> 00:35:19.380
Yeah, that's right.
791
00:35:19.460 --> 00:35:28.580
So he's being lent funds to buy Bitcoin and then he's selling Bitcoin to pay the dividends for the capital requirements for the people who he sold the equities to.
792
00:35:29.844 --> 00:35:33.800
He's selling a little bit in order to raise kind of the interest payment dividend type fund.
793
00:35:33.820 --> 00:35:34.220
I don't believe it.
794
00:35:34.322 --> 00:35:34.740
It's fake.
795
00:35:35.587 --> 00:35:36.179
He never said it.
796
00:35:36.503 --> 00:35:37.039
It's not fake.
797
00:35:37.362 --> 00:35:39.300
Let's play the clip so people can hear it.
798
00:35:39.821 --> 00:35:41.960
You buy Bitcoin with credit.
799
00:35:42.340 --> 00:35:46.040
You let it appreciate and then you sell Bitcoin to pay the dividend.
800
00:35:46.761 --> 00:35:55.900
And as long as you're issuing credit and access of the breakeven point, then this business works and grows forever.
801
00:35:56.580 --> 00:35:57.960
You know what I love about this, Ryan?
802
00:35:58.244 --> 00:35:58.418
Yeah.
803
00:35:59.400 --> 00:36:02.820
You and I would debate with Bitcoiners as a pastime in years past.
804
00:36:03.420 --> 00:36:11.600
One of our most fundamental arguments against Bitcoiners is that they always have this fundamental assumption that Bitcoin just goes up forever.
805
00:36:12.741 --> 00:36:25.800
It's in the Bitcoin security budget arguments, and it's now in Saylor's quarterly earnings report of you buy Bitcoin, you wait for it to appreciate, you sell a little bit of Bitcoin to pay back the dividends.
806
00:36:26.180 --> 00:36:26.297
Yeah.
807
00:36:27.462 --> 00:36:28.840
All Bitcoin has to do is appreciate.
808
00:36:29.681 --> 00:36:30.980
I mean, I think it works, though.
809
00:36:31.080 --> 00:36:32.660
Honestly, I just don't hate it.
810
00:36:33.021 --> 00:36:34.740
I think it all works.
811
00:36:34.881 --> 00:36:40.240
It's not a lot of Bitcoin that he would sell, but this is him opening the door in order to do that.
812
00:36:40.340 --> 00:36:44.623
And I think he needs to do that with products like Stretch.
813
00:36:44.663 --> 00:36:45.864
You need to have this option.
814
00:36:46.264 --> 00:36:51.888
The structure of MicroStrategy this time around is much different than it was previously.
815
00:36:52.328 --> 00:37:03.596
And the only way you're going to entice more Stretch buyers is to actually open the possibility that you may have to sell some of the underlying Bitcoin as collateral in order to pay them back.
816
00:37:03.636 --> 00:37:08.940
Or they're not going to continue buying your Stretch product and your other preferred shares products.
817
00:37:09.320 --> 00:37:11.382
I think that's totally right.
818
00:37:12.023 --> 00:37:16.368
I think you and I, I bought a little bit of Stretch, like $500 of Stretch just because.
819
00:37:16.988 --> 00:37:21.333
And the reason why I'm not doing more is because like, oh, what if Saylor wipes me out?
820
00:37:21.893 --> 00:37:25.437
Like, what if he goes like, ah, I ran out of money, but I'm definitely not selling my Bitcoin.
821
00:37:25.457 --> 00:37:26.618
So Stretch is going to zero.
822
00:37:27.058 --> 00:37:28.560
So that's why it can't be a savings account.
823
00:37:28.640 --> 00:37:40.340
But if Saylor is publicly saying, I will sell Bitcoin to fund the yields, it probably opens up the TAM for the interested buyer of Stretch, which opens up his ability to buy more Bitcoin now.
824
00:37:40.801 --> 00:37:44.760
And really, I actually don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with this.
825
00:37:45.100 --> 00:37:46.000
Of course, there's nothing wrong.
826
00:37:46.101 --> 00:37:49.780
What is his whole deal is he is arbitraging timeframes.
827
00:37:50.441 --> 00:38:03.980
And so if people want 11% now and Michael Saylor wants 30% later because he thinks that's what Bitcoin is going to appreciate by over the long term, he will give you that arbitrage opportunity.
828
00:38:04.140 --> 00:38:04.400
That's right.
829
00:38:05.022 --> 00:38:08.180
What's wrong with it, if there's anything wrong, is it's off script.
830
00:38:09.220 --> 00:38:09.340
Sure.
831
00:38:10.163 --> 00:38:12.720
Michael Saylor at every point, never sell your Bitcoin.
832
00:38:13.264 --> 00:38:14.540
Never, ever sell your Bitcoin.
833
00:38:14.580 --> 00:38:18.000
He literally tweeted out, sell your kidney if you have to.
834
00:38:18.382 --> 00:38:18.529
Yes.
835
00:38:18.961 --> 00:38:22.140
So is he going to sell his kidney before he starts to sell Bitcoin to pay back?
836
00:38:22.200 --> 00:38:24.240
No, I think he's got to pay some preferred shareholders.
837
00:38:24.260 --> 00:38:25.460
I think he should do it as a bit.
838
00:38:26.666 --> 00:38:27.860
Sell his actual kidney?
839
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:33.800
Before he sells any Bitcoin to pay stretch dividends, he should sell his kidney first.
840
00:38:34.061 --> 00:38:34.600
Yeah, that's right.
841
00:38:34.721 --> 00:38:35.579
How convicted is he?
842
00:38:35.780 --> 00:38:35.978
Come on.
843
00:38:36.000 --> 00:38:37.059
If he's not willing to sell his...
844
00:38:37.183 --> 00:38:37.560
Come on.
845
00:38:37.682 --> 00:38:38.340
He's got two.
846
00:38:38.422 --> 00:38:38.879
He said it.
847
00:38:39.602 --> 00:38:40.880
How many chairs are you sitting on?
848
00:38:41.404 --> 00:38:43.020
How many kidneys do you have, Michael Saylor?
849
00:38:43.120 --> 00:38:43.500
How many kidneys do you need?
850
00:38:43.843 --> 00:38:44.600
How many do you need?
851
00:38:46.384 --> 00:38:47.120
That's a great idea.
852
00:38:47.220 --> 00:38:47.819
I hope he's listening.
853
00:38:48.502 --> 00:38:50.700
David, coming up next, we got to talk about Ethereum.
854
00:38:50.941 --> 00:38:51.499
It is scaling.
855
00:38:51.840 --> 00:38:55.760
There was a meeting of the devs in the Arctic Circle.
856
00:38:55.920 --> 00:38:56.599
I want to tell you about that.
857
00:38:56.760 --> 00:38:56.880
The high summit.
858
00:38:57.220 --> 00:38:58.060
Yeah, a summit.
859
00:38:58.300 --> 00:39:02.120
Also, the strategic Bitcoin reserve, an announcement that within weeks,
860
00:39:02.221 --> 00:39:03.980
there's going to be something to announce.
861
00:39:04.201 --> 00:39:05.880
I actually have a bullish take on this.
862
00:39:06.120 --> 00:39:07.280
We'll get to all this and more.
863
00:39:07.380 --> 00:39:10.860
But before we do, let's thank the sponsors that made this episode possible.
864
00:39:11.201 --> 00:39:13.809
In 2024, emerging markets generated over $115 billion in annual yield for investors.
865
00:39:17.462 --> 00:39:19.276
with yields ranging between 10 to 40%.
866
00:39:19.820 --> 00:39:22.640
These are some of the highest, most persistent yields on earth.
867
00:39:22.780 --> 00:39:23.184
The problem?
868
00:39:23.366 --> 00:39:24.780
DeFi can't access them.
869
00:39:25.020 --> 00:39:26.240
Bricks changes this.
870
00:39:26.400 --> 00:39:30.220
Built on MegaEth, Bricks takes emerging market money markets and sovereign carry
871
00:39:30.381 --> 00:39:34.000
and turns them into composable primitives you can access straight from your wallet.
872
00:39:34.140 --> 00:39:37.380
While DeFi investors earn 3 to 6% on stablecoins and T-bills,
873
00:39:37.580 --> 00:39:42.420
institutions have been harvesting 10 to 50% yields backed by sovereign monetary policy.
874
00:39:42.680 --> 00:39:45.760
Bricks connects these worlds with institutional gray tokenization,
875
00:39:46.021 --> 00:39:50.000
local banking rails, compliance across jurisdictions, and real-time stablecoin
876
00:39:50.101 --> 00:39:50.442
settlement.
877
00:39:50.482 --> 00:39:53.960
Bricks does the heavy lifting so DeFi can finally access real collateral
878
00:39:54.181 --> 00:39:56.732
and structured products on top of real-world yield.
879
00:39:56.873 --> 00:39:58.420
Even the best carry trades can be within
880
00:39:58.500 --> 00:39:58.701
reach.
881
00:39:58.902 --> 00:40:02.480
Bricks brings DeFi's promise to the emerging world and brings emerging market
882
00:40:02.580 --> 00:40:03.745
yield to your wallet.
883
00:40:03.785 --> 00:40:05.332
Let the yield flow with Bricks.
884
00:40:06.256 --> 00:40:07.220
When the market pulls back,
885
00:40:07.420 --> 00:40:08.465
most people just wait.
886
00:40:08.525 --> 00:40:10.555
They hold cash, hoping things stabilize.
887
00:40:10.675 --> 00:40:11.640
But there's another move,
888
00:40:11.841 --> 00:40:13.126
And that's where Nexo comes in.
889
00:40:13.267 --> 00:40:16.200
Nexo is a platform built to help keep your digital assets productive.
890
00:40:16.560 --> 00:40:23.500
You can earn daily interest on supported crypto assets through their yield product or get funds through a crypto-backed credit line without having to sell any of your assets.
891
00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:27.060
So if you want optionality, Nexo gives you both sides of the equation.
892
00:40:27.340 --> 00:40:30.680
You can put your assets to work or borrow against them when you need flexibility.
893
00:40:31.000 --> 00:40:35.160
Nexo has been around since 2018 and has over $8 billion in assets on the platform.
894
00:40:35.300 --> 00:40:39.040
And it's paid out more than $1.3 billion in interest to clients globally.
895
00:40:39.301 --> 00:40:43.460
So if you're a new U.S. user, there's a welcome incentive waiting for you when you sign up.
896
00:40:43.580 --> 00:40:44.820
Check it out at the link in the show notes.
897
00:40:44.980 --> 00:40:47.060
And as always, this is not investment advice.
898
00:40:47.340 --> 00:40:51.720
Ryan, let's get back into the Arbitrum DAO Layer Zero Kelp hack story.
899
00:40:52.140 --> 00:40:54.000
Do you remember where things left off with that?
900
00:40:54.220 --> 00:41:01.880
Arbitrum had frozen some funds on its chain that they were just kind of waiting for Aave and the rest of the ecosystem to figure out what they want to do.
901
00:41:02.560 --> 00:41:04.040
They were part of DeFi United, right?
902
00:41:04.120 --> 00:41:09.960
And so those frozen funds were going to contribute towards the restoration of the RSE collateral.
903
00:41:11.040 --> 00:41:12.609
Yeah, there's like 116 Ether hole from the exploit.
904
00:41:15.000 --> 00:41:19.939
Arbitrum was able to recapture 31,000 ETH that it yoinked from North Korea.
905
00:41:20.240 --> 00:41:21.815
Is that like 60 million, 70 million?
906
00:41:22.684 --> 00:41:23.599
Yeah, 70 million, I think.
907
00:41:24.561 --> 00:41:32.680
There's a small little hiccup that happened, which is kind of posing a big question about DAOs and DeFi.
908
00:41:33.621 --> 00:41:45.380
There was a court order from the U.S. District Court of the Southern District of the UNORC issuing a restraining order on Arbitrum Dow from moving the 31,000 Ether that it froze from North Korea.
909
00:41:46.662 --> 00:41:48.880
Why and how and what happens next?
910
00:41:48.980 --> 00:41:54.840
The order introducing a competing legal claim from a completely unrelated case.
911
00:41:55.142 --> 00:41:58.500
unrelated people who also have damages,
912
00:41:58.840 --> 00:42:00.800
damage claims against North Korea
913
00:42:01.423 --> 00:42:04.860
for unpaid terrorism judgments against the DPRK,
914
00:42:06.041 --> 00:42:08.760
with claims totaling over almost a billion dollars.
915
00:42:09.040 --> 00:42:10.220
Nothing related to crypto.
916
00:42:10.440 --> 00:42:11.459
Nothing related to DeFi.
917
00:42:12.540 --> 00:42:14.779
But there are these people who have legal claims
918
00:42:15.263 --> 00:42:17.060
against North Korean assets.
919
00:42:17.200 --> 00:42:18.780
Okay, there's some U.S. court that said,
920
00:42:18.940 --> 00:42:22.595
okay, yes, Kim Jong-un and North Korea owes you guys $877 million,
921
00:42:23.941 --> 00:42:26.220
and that claim has just been outstanding somewhere.
922
00:42:26.580 --> 00:42:26.797
Yes.
923
00:42:27.280 --> 00:42:30.700
And so these people's lawyers argue that the frozen ether
924
00:42:31.345 --> 00:42:33.320
constitutes North Korean property.
925
00:42:33.914 --> 00:42:34.039
Oh.
926
00:42:34.460 --> 00:42:34.525
Oh.
927
00:42:35.401 --> 00:42:37.996
Because Layer Zero attributed the April 18th hack
928
00:42:38.741 --> 00:42:40.460
to the North Korea Lazarus Group
929
00:42:40.480 --> 00:42:42.480
because the hack was done by the Lazarus Group.
930
00:42:42.760 --> 00:42:44.100
And so therefore it's North Korean property
931
00:42:44.744 --> 00:42:47.760
and there are these people who have claims on North Korean property.
932
00:42:48.240 --> 00:42:49.800
And so the New York court said,
933
00:42:49.960 --> 00:42:51.960
Arbitrum, don't move that ether.
934
00:42:52.767 --> 00:42:54.099
that ether is contested.
935
00:42:54.402 --> 00:42:55.220
It's contested.
936
00:42:55.260 --> 00:42:55.740
Contested.
937
00:42:55.820 --> 00:42:57.100
Okay, they didn't make a ruling on it.
938
00:42:57.281 --> 00:42:58.800
There's no way this holds up.
939
00:42:58.940 --> 00:43:00.179
There's no way you can say
940
00:43:00.260 --> 00:43:00.879
if a thief steals something.
941
00:43:00.920 --> 00:43:01.740
I mean, I'm not a lawyer,
942
00:43:01.920 --> 00:43:03.597
but like, holy hell, no way, dude.
943
00:43:06.248 --> 00:43:08.220
That's what Ave is essentially saying.
944
00:43:08.442 --> 00:43:09.240
I did see this tweet.
945
00:43:09.461 --> 00:43:11.680
Ave LLC has filed an emergency motion
946
00:43:11.822 --> 00:43:13.020
to vacate a restraining notice
947
00:43:13.142 --> 00:43:14.219
served to the Arbitrum DAO.
948
00:43:14.380 --> 00:43:16.100
So Ave getting involved here
949
00:43:16.322 --> 00:43:18.580
about this 71 million in ETH.
950
00:43:19.103 --> 00:43:19.778
And he said this.
951
00:43:20.221 --> 00:43:21.820
This should be pretty obvious, I think.
952
00:43:22.161 --> 00:43:26.800
A thief does not gain lawful ownership of stolen property simply by taking it.
953
00:43:27.201 --> 00:43:29.119
And the law is clear on this.
954
00:43:29.920 --> 00:43:30.040
All right.
955
00:43:30.161 --> 00:43:34.080
So if the law is clear, what's up with this hold order?
956
00:43:34.360 --> 00:43:35.960
How did like, why is the court doing this?
957
00:43:36.020 --> 00:43:37.899
And what's the legal team behind this?
958
00:43:38.322 --> 00:43:42.300
Yeah, I think it's really who is the legal team is the very big question, because this
959
00:43:42.380 --> 00:43:48.598
is the same lawyers that in 2021 sued Compound and Ave in frivolous lawsuits and also pulled
960
00:43:49.223 --> 00:43:49.560
together.
961
00:43:49.560 --> 00:43:49.998
Okay.
962
00:43:50.643 --> 00:43:53.780
There was this Elizabeth Warren staffer or ex-staffer.
963
00:43:53.820 --> 00:43:54.660
They were involved in that?
964
00:43:55.301 --> 00:44:01.080
Yeah, who put like $26 into Pool Together, a prize-linked no-loss lottery,
965
00:44:01.960 --> 00:44:04.200
and then lost the money because of gas.
966
00:44:04.240 --> 00:44:05.500
It was like gas payments or something.
967
00:44:05.600 --> 00:44:05.700
Right.
968
00:44:05.800 --> 00:44:06.940
They lost because of gas payments.
969
00:44:07.400 --> 00:44:11.520
They go to this same law firm and they file a frivolous lawsuit,
970
00:44:11.640 --> 00:44:14.917
which Pool Together had to fight for years and won,
971
00:44:15.701 --> 00:44:19.780
but completely sucked, pulled together, dry of funds fighting the legal case.
972
00:44:19.800 --> 00:44:20.477
Yeah, so the intent-
973
00:44:20.580 --> 00:44:21.640
And these are the same lawyers.
974
00:44:21.760 --> 00:44:22.280
The same lawyers.
975
00:44:22.380 --> 00:44:24.600
Okay, the intent there in that case, in the pulled together case,
976
00:44:24.640 --> 00:44:27.837
seemed to be just to cause a ruckus in DeFi, right?
977
00:44:28.460 --> 00:44:29.500
Just sow some chaos.
978
00:44:29.801 --> 00:44:30.919
Is that the same intent here?
979
00:44:31.440 --> 00:44:33.140
Or are they actually more, like, because, you know,
980
00:44:33.260 --> 00:44:37.300
obviously the ambulance chaser type of lawyers with frivolous lawsuits,
981
00:44:37.922 --> 00:44:39.700
their incentive is generally to get, you know,
982
00:44:39.800 --> 00:44:42.360
some commission on the legal payout there.
983
00:44:42.460 --> 00:44:43.840
There's a profit incentive there.
984
00:44:44.141 --> 00:44:48.020
Are you saying this is more of a like, we hate DeFi, we want to sow some chaos?
985
00:44:48.300 --> 00:44:50.660
Or is there a profit incentive here for this law firm?
986
00:44:50.880 --> 00:44:55.260
I don't know how else not to interpret it as these people just hate crypto and they
987
00:44:55.340 --> 00:44:59.840
keep doing frivolous lawsuits that always lose, but they just cause a ruckus in the
988
00:44:59.880 --> 00:45:02.920
meantime and they just drain legal funds.
989
00:45:03.360 --> 00:45:03.580
All right.
990
00:45:03.640 --> 00:45:08.200
Well, so this probably, there's no way this holds up in U.S. courts, of course.
991
00:45:08.500 --> 00:45:12.440
But it does open the nexus for the Security Council, right?
992
00:45:12.500 --> 00:45:18.460
It's 12 multi-sig signers and they don't get paid a lot in order to be a multi-sig signer.
993
00:45:18.560 --> 00:45:22.100
In fact, I thought it was something like 5K a month or something like this.
994
00:45:22.920 --> 00:45:27.259
I guarantee you when the people who signed on to be an Arbitrum Security Council multi-sig signer,
995
00:45:27.841 --> 00:45:33.460
when they agreed to do this, they did not think about how the Southern District Court of New York
996
00:45:34.444 --> 00:45:38.400
might potentially hold them liable if they violated a court order.
997
00:45:38.560 --> 00:45:40.140
And that's why it's a real story.
998
00:45:40.400 --> 00:45:40.601
Yeah.
999
00:45:40.701 --> 00:45:50.260
So when I saw some of this, I'm like, OK, these layer twos, they want to throw away the keys and get rid of their security councils and get to stage two as soon as possible.
1000
00:45:50.560 --> 00:45:55.860
Because if this vector does exist, you're going to get more of these types of cases.
1001
00:45:56.140 --> 00:45:56.819
And they don't want that.
1002
00:45:56.840 --> 00:46:06.460
It's kind of interesting that this has happened so quickly post the recovery of the assets where like the big question was like, oh, is this going to put more liability on the security council?
1003
00:46:07.102 --> 00:46:10.120
And now here we are just a couple of weeks later with a court case.
1004
00:46:10.682 --> 00:46:15.760
yeah it's exactly like as you know as we predicted as we expected it to play do you say taylor
1005
00:46:15.981 --> 00:46:21.240
monahan she was having a meltdown i'm not even gonna read this tweet dude it's hilarious you
1006
00:46:21.260 --> 00:46:26.800
have to read it yes little effing who can't do the work so they come chase after people who did
1007
00:46:26.840 --> 00:46:33.860
the work bite me worse than effing ambulance chasers stg what's stg swear to god oh i think
1008
00:46:34.843 --> 00:46:39.960
this is part of a series of tweets little can go f themselves you want some money go effing do the
1009
00:46:40.803 --> 00:46:45.260
If you don't know who Taylor Monaghan is, that's kind of important context for understanding why Ryan is laughing.
1010
00:46:45.260 --> 00:46:45.740
We should say this.
1011
00:46:46.842 --> 00:46:49.360
Taylor, by the way, she is a fantastic person.
1012
00:46:49.580 --> 00:46:52.380
I think she's really stood up for the space.
1013
00:46:52.400 --> 00:46:53.520
She's just unhinged on Twitter.
1014
00:46:54.143 --> 00:46:54.760
She really is.
1015
00:46:54.983 --> 00:46:56.140
Usually it's pretty entertaining.
1016
00:46:56.442 --> 00:46:56.900
Yeah, but she is.
1017
00:46:56.900 --> 00:47:00.440
Sometimes it's accidentally pointed at you, but usually it's just entertaining for everyone involved.
1018
00:47:00.440 --> 00:47:00.620
Exactly, exactly.
1019
00:47:00.740 --> 00:47:02.599
So I'm enjoying the entertainment of this.
1020
00:47:03.001 --> 00:47:04.300
She's part of the SEAL team.
1021
00:47:04.602 --> 00:47:05.980
She's done so much for the crypto space.
1022
00:47:06.241 --> 00:47:11.820
She's angry, expressing some anger against these lawyers who are just trying to associate chaos here.
1023
00:47:12.861 --> 00:47:17.139
David, you want to hear about Ethereum and what they're doing with L1 scaling?
1024
00:47:17.620 --> 00:47:18.860
Not L2, L1 scaling?
1025
00:47:19.343 --> 00:47:20.960
I have always wanted to hear that.
1026
00:47:21.202 --> 00:47:22.080
I know you have.
1027
00:47:22.200 --> 00:47:26.239
I know this has been a passion project of yours around scaling the L1.
1028
00:47:26.701 --> 00:47:29.820
Well, do you remember that thing that came out last year?
1029
00:47:30.562 --> 00:47:33.540
It was an EIP, kind of a Donkrad EIP.
1030
00:47:34.360 --> 00:47:41.060
And he said, wouldn't it be great if we could 3x L1 scale every single year from here on out?
1031
00:47:41.340 --> 00:47:41.538
Right.
1032
00:47:41.723 --> 00:47:41.860
Yep.
1033
00:47:41.980 --> 00:47:42.499
You remember that?
1034
00:47:42.721 --> 00:47:43.198
I got really excited.
1035
00:47:43.282 --> 00:47:43.740
It looked like this.
1036
00:47:43.980 --> 00:47:46.040
And then there was a slide that Justin Drake put together.
1037
00:47:46.320 --> 00:47:47.098
It looked like this.
1038
00:47:47.720 --> 00:47:51.833
And it had different mega gas targets, gas limit targets for 2025, 2026, all the way to 2030.
1039
00:47:54.281 --> 00:47:59.719
And if you do accomplish the 3x per year, you get to one gig of gas by 2030.
1040
00:48:00.600 --> 00:48:04.880
Well, there is another hard fork coming, the Glamsterdam hard fork.
1041
00:48:05.180 --> 00:48:06.840
EPBS is in that.
1042
00:48:07.861 --> 00:48:09.940
The BAL, what is that?
1043
00:48:10.020 --> 00:48:12.920
The Block Access List update was in that.
1044
00:48:13.202 --> 00:48:14.840
Some kind of esoteric updates.
1045
00:48:15.381 --> 00:48:22.295
One of the other things, though, is the increase of max block space from, I think, 60 million to 200 million.
1046
00:48:25.060 --> 00:48:25.150
200.
1047
00:48:26.000 --> 00:48:26.137
Yeah.
1048
00:48:26.524 --> 00:48:27.740
And so I charted this out.
1049
00:48:27.900 --> 00:48:29.500
I had my quant chart this out.
1050
00:48:29.620 --> 00:48:31.000
Oh, this is a Ryan Tron Adams chart?
1051
00:48:31.100 --> 00:48:32.579
Oh, this is where all your tokens are going.
1052
00:48:32.640 --> 00:48:34.220
I was spending some of those cloud tokens, dude.
1053
00:48:34.602 --> 00:48:36.299
This chart probably cost 20 bucks, okay?
1054
00:48:38.023 --> 00:48:46.280
And this is like showing TPS and block space of Ethereum and projecting that based on the 3x per year line.
1055
00:48:46.700 --> 00:48:52.500
And David, with this GlamsterNAM upgrade, we will be right on track, right on the 3x trend line.
1056
00:48:52.660 --> 00:48:56.620
We are lagging behind the original prediction, but this catches us right back up.
1057
00:48:56.941 --> 00:48:58.360
This catches us right back up.
1058
00:48:58.420 --> 00:49:00.200
So it catches us back to the trend line.
1059
00:49:00.300 --> 00:49:07.020
So this would be a 3x, sorry, excuse me, a 7x in transactions per second and block space
1060
00:49:07.121 --> 00:49:09.240
availability on the L1 in 12 months.
1061
00:49:09.774 --> 00:49:09.899
Yeah.
1062
00:49:10.441 --> 00:49:14.238
Which is pretty astounding because we went to, you remember this, we went to 30 million.
1063
00:49:14.980 --> 00:49:17.400
We were at 30 million for like four years.
1064
00:49:18.100 --> 00:49:20.534
And then just last year, we went from 30 to 45 to 60.
1065
00:49:22.122 --> 00:49:23.331
And now we go from 60 to 200.
1066
00:49:25.101 --> 00:49:27.873
And that results in something close to 80 to 100 transactions per second.
1067
00:49:29.901 --> 00:49:36.360
so l1 is actually scaling like they're actually doing it i think this means that we're not going
1068
00:49:36.360 --> 00:49:45.440
to see any uh l1 fees anytime soon i think i think blockchain fees as a concept are kind of just gone
1069
00:49:46.142 --> 00:49:50.940
oh my god i've been saying this yeah i've been saying like no chain has fees anymore what's one
1070
00:49:50.980 --> 00:49:55.480
chain that has fees why would they bitcoin has no demand so they have no fees of course
1071
00:49:56.122 --> 00:50:01.720
ethereum scaling yeah also has much less demand than in the past and then what other chains are
1072
00:50:01.740 --> 00:50:06.680
left like mega brand new chain is like negative fees because it's the theoretical limit of
1073
00:50:06.760 --> 00:50:12.380
throughput solana solana is going even faster you only get fees you are right tron has fees
1074
00:50:12.741 --> 00:50:18.980
you only get fees on a blockchain if there's block space contention if demand exceeds supply
1075
00:50:19.522 --> 00:50:24.820
And if you are creating more supply and supply exceeds demand, you don't get fees.
1076
00:50:25.940 --> 00:50:34.160
And so, you know, like if your bull case on Ether is just about fees, then you also have to not care about scaling.
1077
00:50:34.740 --> 00:50:34.920
Right?
1078
00:50:36.233 --> 00:50:36.399
Anyway.
1079
00:50:36.780 --> 00:50:36.917
Yeah.
1080
00:50:37.120 --> 00:50:45.000
This is why for decentralized blockchains, my thesis on like how they accrue value is all about story value.
1081
00:50:45.100 --> 00:50:45.660
It's all about money.
1082
00:50:45.800 --> 00:50:46.820
Bitcoin's always been right.
1083
00:50:47.460 --> 00:50:48.379
Ether is a story value.
1084
00:50:48.882 --> 00:50:49.740
My opinion is always right.
1085
00:50:50.000 --> 00:50:52.660
There will be times where we'll oscillate and we will generate some fees
1086
00:50:53.203 --> 00:50:56.100
and that will go into the burn and that will slightly reduce issuance.
1087
00:50:56.760 --> 00:50:59.000
But ETH is either a store of value asset and a money
1088
00:50:59.904 --> 00:51:03.320
or it's not worth very much because it's not worth much on fees alone.
1089
00:51:03.800 --> 00:51:04.859
This is a whole separate rant.
1090
00:51:05.520 --> 00:51:06.879
You guys know my position on this.
1091
00:51:07.320 --> 00:51:11.040
Basically, Ryan is saying that as Ethereum's throughput increases,
1092
00:51:11.781 --> 00:51:16.278
ETH becomes more and more money-like rather than revenue-like.
1093
00:51:16.880 --> 00:51:17.240
That's right.
1094
00:51:17.340 --> 00:51:17.720
That's right.
1095
00:51:18.389 --> 00:51:19.138
I believe that.
1096
00:51:20.182 --> 00:51:22.920
David, you want to hear about the strategic Bitcoin reserve?
1097
00:51:23.180 --> 00:51:25.860
Yeah, there was something out of Consensus Miami, which is happening right now.
1098
00:51:26.220 --> 00:51:26.380
Oh, yeah, yeah.
1099
00:51:26.560 --> 00:51:30.680
Actually, I forgot to tell you, by the way, because we talked about the Arctic Circle meeting.
1100
00:51:30.980 --> 00:51:35.260
The Glastonbury upgrade was all the devs met somewhere in the Arctic Circle.
1101
00:51:35.420 --> 00:51:36.259
Can you pronounce that?
1102
00:51:36.700 --> 00:51:37.380
Can you pronounce this place?
1103
00:51:38.380 --> 00:51:38.799
Solvebard?
1104
00:51:39.560 --> 00:51:41.980
Solvebard for the Sologen?
1105
00:51:42.524 --> 00:51:43.520
What country is that?
1106
00:51:43.580 --> 00:51:44.340
Is that like Finland?
1107
00:51:45.442 --> 00:51:46.539
It's somewhere very cold.
1108
00:51:46.931 --> 00:51:47.200
All right.
1109
00:51:47.321 --> 00:51:49.740
Anyway, the devs met there and that's where they came.
1110
00:51:50.220 --> 00:51:55.320
Everyone's in Miami and they're in Saldberg with the weird line through the O.
1111
00:51:55.662 --> 00:51:56.560
It doesn't seem real.
1112
00:51:56.681 --> 00:51:57.780
While everyone else is in Miami.
1113
00:51:57.860 --> 00:51:59.699
Yeah, the ETH devs go to the Arctic Circle.
1114
00:52:00.265 --> 00:52:00.960
Like, why, guys?
1115
00:52:01.020 --> 00:52:01.620
You don't have to go there.
1116
00:52:01.620 --> 00:52:03.120
I mean, they definitely don't want to go to Miami.
1117
00:52:03.540 --> 00:52:03.648
Yeah.
1118
00:52:04.082 --> 00:52:04.660
Anyway, all right.
1119
00:52:04.780 --> 00:52:07.860
So back to the Bitcoin, the strategic Bitcoin reserve.
1120
00:52:08.441 --> 00:52:13.460
So this is the third tease we've had and the biggest tease over the past three weeks.
1121
00:52:13.601 --> 00:52:16.980
So you remember last week we talked about Pete Hegz as the Secretary of War.
1122
00:52:17.482 --> 00:52:20.640
Talking about Bitcoin as a matter of security, saying there could be an announcement in the future.
1123
00:52:21.161 --> 00:52:22.620
Eric Trump was in Miami.
1124
00:52:23.600 --> 00:52:26.815
He said, big things are coming, that the U.S. government has 300,000 Bitcoin.
1125
00:52:28.121 --> 00:52:29.780
It won't sell it, he said.
1126
00:52:30.321 --> 00:52:39.580
Now we have Patrick Witt, who is actually the guy at the White House who is responsible for crypto and implementing the policy.
1127
00:52:39.820 --> 00:52:43.420
And he said this, the strategic Bitcoin reserve is coming.
1128
00:52:43.500 --> 00:52:46.900
An announcement is coming in the next few weeks.
1129
00:52:47.583 --> 00:52:47.946
All right.
1130
00:52:48.369 --> 00:52:49.780
So what could he be announcing?
1131
00:52:50.020 --> 00:52:51.040
An announcement of an announcement?
1132
00:52:51.420 --> 00:52:51.662
Yeah.
1133
00:52:52.065 --> 00:52:53.900
And it's going to be a big deal.
1134
00:52:54.882 --> 00:52:57.140
There could be all sorts of possibilities here.
1135
00:52:57.340 --> 00:52:58.900
What do you think the possibilities are?
1136
00:53:00.386 --> 00:53:01.340
Oh, God, I have no clue.
1137
00:53:01.721 --> 00:53:02.004
Really?
1138
00:53:02.349 --> 00:53:03.160
Like no clue at all?
1139
00:53:08.150 --> 00:53:10.880
I mean, yeah, I have no idea, actually.
1140
00:53:11.781 --> 00:53:13.900
OK, so Patrick Witt, do you remember Bo Hines?
1141
00:53:14.100 --> 00:53:17.525
He used to be in Patrick Witt's situation.
1142
00:53:17.545 --> 00:53:19.888
He used to be the crypto council executive director.
1143
00:53:19.908 --> 00:53:20.609
He's now at Tether.
1144
00:53:21.089 --> 00:53:23.592
Patrick Witt is the guy who replaced him.
1145
00:53:23.612 --> 00:53:29.380
I think what they're going to do here is, I don't think they're going to announce a program for purchasing Bitcoin.
1146
00:53:30.141 --> 00:53:43.213
What I think they're going to do is actually announce the execution and implementation of Trump's executive order, his strategic Bitcoin reserve executive order that really hasn't been implemented.
1147
00:53:43.613 --> 00:53:49.458
And I think what they're going to do is go down the process of creating a Fort Knox for crypto.
1148
00:53:49.959 --> 00:53:51.060
I think that's the part of it.
1149
00:53:51.580 --> 00:53:58.105
So, if you recall, there was an executive order of March of last year that called for a few things.
1150
00:53:58.645 --> 00:54:03.008
One, centralized cold storage of all of the Bitcoin that the US government had.
1151
00:54:03.448 --> 00:54:11.614
You recall, all the Bitcoin, all the crypto assets seized were scattered across the DOJ, you know, cold wallets and desk drawers.
1152
00:54:11.634 --> 00:54:16.097
Like there was, remember that US Marshall's case where somehow 30 million of-
1153
00:54:21.201 --> 00:54:22.960
because the police officers stole it
1154
00:54:23.041 --> 00:54:23.900
or the investigators stole it.
1155
00:54:24.021 --> 00:54:25.960
So you need something centralized,
1156
00:54:26.160 --> 00:54:26.820
some cold storage,
1157
00:54:26.940 --> 00:54:28.940
some Fort Knox type of infrastructure
1158
00:54:28.981 --> 00:54:29.679
in order to do this.
1159
00:54:29.820 --> 00:54:31.500
I think also an audit framework
1160
00:54:31.764 --> 00:54:32.959
will be part of this.
1161
00:54:33.181 --> 00:54:34.299
I think they'll formalize
1162
00:54:34.664 --> 00:54:35.960
that we're not selling Bitcoin,
1163
00:54:36.060 --> 00:54:37.158
the teeth behind this.
1164
00:54:37.741 --> 00:54:39.060
And I think they will do this.
1165
00:54:39.160 --> 00:54:40.700
They will give Bitcoin,
1166
00:54:40.860 --> 00:54:42.239
maybe some other crypto assets,
1167
00:54:42.462 --> 00:54:43.900
a reserve asset designation.
1168
00:54:44.620 --> 00:54:46.280
So that puts it in kind of the class
1169
00:54:46.381 --> 00:54:47.680
on the Fed balance sheet,
1170
00:54:47.720 --> 00:54:48.700
alongside gold,
1171
00:54:49.220 --> 00:54:50.960
alongside other fiat currencies
1172
00:54:51.081 --> 00:54:53.176
that they might hold and SDRs.
1173
00:54:54.001 --> 00:54:56.039
So I think that's what they're really going to do.
1174
00:54:56.661 --> 00:54:58.199
And the US government does have
1175
00:54:58.662 --> 00:54:59.607
about 300 to 328,000 Bitcoin.
1176
00:55:03.282 --> 00:55:06.540
Although a chunk of this is court bound,
1177
00:55:06.660 --> 00:55:07.440
is tied up in courts,
1178
00:55:08.282 --> 00:55:10.280
is victims have claim over it.
1179
00:55:10.320 --> 00:55:11.898
Not necessarily the government's.
1180
00:55:12.690 --> 00:55:13.060
That's right.
1181
00:55:13.081 --> 00:55:13.839
It's owed to people.
1182
00:55:14.183 --> 00:55:16.240
So the Fort Knox pile,
1183
00:55:16.360 --> 00:55:18.300
the part they would put in the strategic Bitcoin reserves,
1184
00:55:18.441 --> 00:55:21.453
probably like closer to like 150 to 200k Bitcoin.
1185
00:55:21.874 --> 00:55:23.260
That's what I think they're going to roll out.
1186
00:55:23.420 --> 00:55:26.372
And that is, in my opinion, very bullish.
1187
00:55:26.954 --> 00:55:28.380
Now, it might not be as bullish.
1188
00:55:28.960 --> 00:55:29.061
Yeah.
1189
00:55:29.162 --> 00:55:31.640
Like the reason why I kind of thought this was a nothing burger is because like,
1190
00:55:31.760 --> 00:55:34.960
there's no way that they're announcing that they're buying Bitcoin and that's really what
1191
00:55:35.020 --> 00:55:35.602
people want.
1192
00:55:35.703 --> 00:55:38.293
And that's just not so unfeasible.
1193
00:55:38.413 --> 00:55:38.654
Yeah.
1194
00:55:38.815 --> 00:55:40.100
I think what you're saying is that like,
1195
00:55:40.160 --> 00:55:45.600
this is just an increasing legitimization of Bitcoin because we're creating process and
1196
00:55:45.740 --> 00:55:48.792
structure and commitment to holding Bitcoin.
1197
00:55:48.872 --> 00:55:49.193
Yeah.
1198
00:55:49.334 --> 00:55:50.619
A giant government vault for it.
1199
00:55:50.839 --> 00:55:51.020
Yeah.
1200
00:55:51.900 --> 00:55:55.520
Like if you told, if you're not, you're not excited about this, you don't think this is
1201
00:55:55.540 --> 00:55:55.801
bull?
1202
00:55:55.921 --> 00:55:56.243
Thumbs up.
1203
00:55:56.704 --> 00:56:00.820
Dude, five years ago, if you were to tell me that the U.S. government was
1204
00:56:00.880 --> 00:56:07.699
going to create a Fort Knox for digital bear instruments, I would be blown away.
1205
00:56:07.739 --> 00:56:08.060
I'd be like,
1206
00:56:08.181 --> 00:56:09.346
okay, well, we won.
1207
00:56:09.446 --> 00:56:09.868
It's over.
1208
00:56:09.888 --> 00:56:10.370
Yeah, you're right.
1209
00:56:10.591 --> 00:56:12.540
But like we already had the announcement.
1210
00:56:13.062 --> 00:56:16.998
it's just like hey we're doing the thing that we said that we're gonna do yeah and it's 2026
1211
00:56:17.480 --> 00:56:21.054
and it's 42 years later but like yeah okay you're right you're like we got there yay
1212
00:56:24.749 --> 00:56:27.480
you're right though i mean they're not going to announce that they're going i don't think
1213
00:56:27.500 --> 00:56:31.520
they're going to announce that they're going to be purchasing bitcoin um there is a way that the
1214
00:56:31.560 --> 00:56:35.599
treasury could do that by the way it's called an esf exchange stabilization fund they could so
1215
00:56:35.820 --> 00:56:41.440
besant could outside of congress actually start purchasing bitcoin there's no way he's going to
1216
00:56:41.480 --> 00:56:41.741
do that.
1217
00:56:41.781 --> 00:56:46.180
And then you remember Senator Lummis, she had a proposal called the Bitcoin Act,
1218
00:56:46.540 --> 00:56:49.012
which was to actually buy 1 million in Bitcoin.
1219
00:56:49.073 --> 00:56:50.057
That's a congressional act.
1220
00:56:50.098 --> 00:56:50.600
That's not going to
1221
00:56:50.600 --> 00:56:51.142
happen either.
1222
00:56:51.162 --> 00:56:52.286
Yeah, that's not going to happen.
1223
00:56:52.547 --> 00:56:55.980
Not in the same time where our debt to GDP ratio
1224
00:56:56.060 --> 00:56:57.989
just passed 100 or whatever.
1225
00:56:58.029 --> 00:56:59.496
I mean, it's probably the right time though.
1226
00:56:59.737 --> 00:57:00.320
It's probably the right
1227
00:57:00.440 --> 00:57:00.681
time.
1228
00:57:00.702 --> 00:57:01.003
Yeah, right.
1229
00:57:01.043 --> 00:57:02.047
Actually, that's bullish.
1230
00:57:03.011 --> 00:57:05.300
So the probability, according to PolyMarket,
1231
00:57:05.461 --> 00:57:08.180
of the U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve as defined,
1232
00:57:08.541 --> 00:57:09.799
you know, in the way I defined it,
1233
00:57:10.322 --> 00:57:11.510
is 33% right now, but rising.
1234
00:57:13.922 --> 00:57:14.680
But it rose on the week.
1235
00:57:15.520 --> 00:57:16.560
So there you go.
1236
00:57:17.285 --> 00:57:18.138
You don't seem excited about it.
1237
00:57:18.240 --> 00:57:20.460
I guess it's just remarkable in the sense that, like,
1238
00:57:20.581 --> 00:57:22.560
I kind of forgot that they didn't do it.
1239
00:57:22.700 --> 00:57:24.540
They just announced that they did it.
1240
00:57:24.540 --> 00:57:24.959
That's right.
1241
00:57:25.120 --> 00:57:25.479
They did.
1242
00:57:25.642 --> 00:57:26.640
Now we're actually doing it.
1243
00:57:26.700 --> 00:57:29.099
But I just don't want to, like, applaud for them
1244
00:57:29.424 --> 00:57:30.460
for just being late.
1245
00:57:31.241 --> 00:57:34.480
It's so exciting to me to think about what a,
1246
00:57:35.366 --> 00:57:37.620
what a crypt of Fort Knox would actually look like.
1247
00:57:38.104 --> 00:57:38.540
Sure, yeah.
1248
00:57:38.560 --> 00:57:40.000
Like, how are they locking that down?
1249
00:57:40.121 --> 00:57:41.119
Is the government doing this?
1250
00:57:41.240 --> 00:57:42.680
Like, oh my God, that's kind of scary.
1251
00:57:42.860 --> 00:57:43.419
I mean, does...
1252
00:57:43.460 --> 00:57:44.480
Because that means, like,
1253
00:57:44.741 --> 00:57:47.820
the government will have a Ethereum wallet
1254
00:57:48.022 --> 00:57:49.840
and a Bitcoin wallet will be a Bitcoin wallet.
1255
00:57:49.901 --> 00:57:51.440
Well, they already do, of course, right?
1256
00:57:52.284 --> 00:57:52.620
But now...
1257
00:57:52.620 --> 00:57:54.040
I wish they had an Ethereum wallet
1258
00:57:54.564 --> 00:57:56.700
because then we could send meme coins there.
1259
00:57:58.043 --> 00:57:59.660
And, like, other shenanigans like that.
1260
00:58:00.040 --> 00:58:02.440
Like, yeah, isn't it cool to just, like,
1261
00:58:02.901 --> 00:58:04.420
this is a government's Bitcoin wallet.
1262
00:58:04.645 --> 00:58:05.078
It's this.
1263
00:58:05.863 --> 00:58:07.240
And also here is the Ethereum wallet.
1264
00:58:07.861 --> 00:58:10.860
I mean, will it be protected physically, like the way Fort Knox is?
1265
00:58:11.000 --> 00:58:11.919
I can't imagine.
1266
00:58:12.701 --> 00:58:14.079
But you can still expose the publicies.
1267
00:58:15.344 --> 00:58:15.600
Yeah.
1268
00:58:16.283 --> 00:58:17.260
And we can send meme coins.
1269
00:58:17.740 --> 00:58:20.800
I mean, will foreign adversaries be trying to attack it?
1270
00:58:21.120 --> 00:58:23.580
For instance, trying to infiltrate it, trying to break in?
1271
00:58:23.641 --> 00:58:24.127
Why wouldn't you?
1272
00:58:25.301 --> 00:58:27.500
If you're in North Korea, why wouldn't you go after that?
1273
00:58:27.622 --> 00:58:27.980
Of course.
1274
00:58:28.080 --> 00:58:29.780
That would be an incredible prize for them.
1275
00:58:30.201 --> 00:58:33.240
And is the U.S. government actually competent enough to pull this off?
1276
00:58:34.108 --> 00:58:35.380
or do they really like,
1277
00:58:36.162 --> 00:58:37.700
I don't think I trust the US government
1278
00:58:37.720 --> 00:58:38.160
more than say Coinbase.
1279
00:58:38.160 --> 00:58:39.699
No, they should just hire Fireblocks
1280
00:58:40.105 --> 00:58:41.240
or Anchorage or something.
1281
00:58:42.161 --> 00:58:43.880
But then that's like a nation state target.
1282
00:58:44.021 --> 00:58:45.460
Anyway, I find it very interesting.
1283
00:58:45.801 --> 00:58:47.640
Yeah, can the United States government
1284
00:58:47.862 --> 00:58:50.040
self-custody this Bitcoin?
1285
00:58:50.961 --> 00:58:52.640
Well, is Trump going to just have it on his,
1286
00:58:53.041 --> 00:58:54.580
you know, beside the nuclear launch codes?
1287
00:58:54.600 --> 00:58:55.620
Didn't Trump steal a bunch of files
1288
00:58:55.761 --> 00:58:57.259
and hide them in his bathroom after?
1289
00:58:57.460 --> 00:58:58.720
It's going to end up in Mar-a-Lago.
1290
00:58:59.461 --> 00:59:00.640
Dude, Trump's just going to take
1291
00:59:00.721 --> 00:59:02.420
the private keys with him when he goes.
1292
00:59:03.064 --> 00:59:05.620
It's on a ledger somewhere in Mar-a-Lago.
1293
00:59:06.081 --> 00:59:07.720
That's the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
1294
00:59:08.680 --> 00:59:14.120
I'm just picturing, you know how there's like the drawer in the desk of the president?
1295
00:59:14.520 --> 00:59:18.200
I don't know if this is still true, but it's a drawer full of gifts.
1296
00:59:19.440 --> 00:59:24.117
I remember this old story of Nixon when Elvis visited the White House.
1297
00:59:25.140 --> 00:59:28.460
Nixon needed to get a gift for him, so he pulls open the drawer and is like, here's a watch.
1298
00:59:29.221 --> 00:59:32.960
I just imagine just like a gold ledger just being in that drawer.
1299
00:59:34.001 --> 00:59:35.220
That's just where it is.
1300
00:59:35.420 --> 00:59:38.580
I think you could give that to Trump but not actually have the private keys on there.
1301
00:59:38.682 --> 00:59:39.740
Just say they're on there.
1302
00:59:40.440 --> 00:59:41.637
And he would be pretty happy with that.
1303
00:59:42.322 --> 00:59:43.137
He'd hold it up.
1304
00:59:45.087 --> 00:59:45.540
Oh, my God.
1305
00:59:45.680 --> 00:59:46.118
All right, guys.
1306
00:59:46.241 --> 00:59:46.840
Got to end it there.
1307
00:59:46.960 --> 00:59:48.000
You know crypto is risky.
1308
00:59:48.100 --> 00:59:49.020
You could lose what you put in.
1309
00:59:49.180 --> 00:59:50.140
But we are headed west.
1310
00:59:50.321 --> 00:59:51.060
This is the frontier.
1311
00:59:51.421 --> 00:59:52.020
Not for everyone.
1312
00:59:52.340 --> 00:59:53.900
But we're glad you're with us on the Bankless Journey.
1313
00:59:54.200 --> 00:59:54.680
Thanks a lot.
1314
00:59:58.629 --> 01:00:02.829
We'll see you next time.
