39: Inside Syria’s Struggle for Governance and Stability

WEBVTT
00:00:07.940 --> 00:00:13.240
For more than a decade, Syria was defined by war, displacement, and devastation.
00:00:13.467 --> 00:00:17.739
The fall of Bashar al-Assad marked a turning point, and left a harder question.
00:00:18.250 --> 00:00:20.311
Can Syria actually rebuild?
00:00:21.077 --> 00:00:24.386
Welcome to Baker Briefing, where we make news make sense.
00:00:24.612 --> 00:00:29.407
I'm Christian Coates Ulrichson, fellow for the Middle East at Rice University's Baker Institute.
00:00:30.435 --> 00:00:34.539
Today, Syria is in a fragile transition. A new government is trying to assert
00:00:34.539 --> 00:00:37.284
control over a country that remains deeply fragmented,
00:00:37.499 --> 00:00:41.939
Power remains divided among local and regional actors, including Kurdish-led
00:00:41.939 --> 00:00:47.083
authorities in the northeast and other transitional or opposition-aligned forces elsewhere.
00:00:47.821 --> 00:00:51.900
At the same time, the economy is in severe distress, reconstruction needs were
00:00:51.900 --> 00:00:56.976
enormous, and millions of Syrians remain displaced inside and outside the country.
00:00:57.214 --> 00:01:01.914
To help us unpack where things stand and what comes next, we're joined by Mona Yakubian.
00:01:02.048 --> 00:01:06.070
She is the Director and Senior Advisor of the Middle East Program at the Center
00:01:06.070 --> 00:01:07.917
for Strategic and International Studies.
00:01:08.428 --> 00:01:10.990
Mona, thank you for being here. Thanks for having me, Christian.
00:01:11.370 --> 00:01:14.140
Thank you. Well, let's start with the big picture. It's been a year and a half
00:01:14.140 --> 00:01:19.000
now since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Where does Syria stand
00:01:19.000 --> 00:01:20.717
today politically and socially?
00:01:20.920 --> 00:01:23.683
Are we seeing the beginnings of a genuine transition?
00:01:24.194 --> 00:01:29.308
Or do many of the structural dynamics from the Assad era still persist in new forms?
00:01:29.558 --> 00:01:33.340
It's a great question, and there's no simple answer to it. I think we're seeing
00:01:33.340 --> 00:01:38.280
a bit of both. We've certainly seen the country stabilize from a security perspective.
00:01:38.280 --> 00:01:43.542
We're seeing the lowest level of violence in Syria today in over 15 years.
00:01:43.658 --> 00:01:48.220
And the government has managed to integrate, in particular, the northeast part
00:01:48.220 --> 00:01:52.990
of Syria through an integration agreement that was signed earlier this year in January.
00:01:52.990 --> 00:01:59.430
So that was an enormous shift in terms of bringing much of the country under
00:01:59.430 --> 00:02:01.270
the central government's control.
00:02:01.590 --> 00:02:06.550
However, there are still enormous challenges, many of the ones that you laid down.
00:02:06.550 --> 00:02:11.097
And I would say more broadly, I think, challenges around governance.
00:02:11.742 --> 00:02:17.890
And ensuring that as part of Syria's transition, that the government does adopt
00:02:17.890 --> 00:02:23.100
an inclusive model of governance, one that allows for Syria's many different
00:02:23.100 --> 00:02:26.073
minorities to feel that they have a real voice
00:02:26.265 --> 00:02:28.570
and are vested, and one that also
00:02:28.910 --> 00:02:33.748
includes a broadening section of people in positions of responsibility,
00:02:34.097 --> 00:02:39.478
not simply those who are close to Ahmad al-Shara and those around him from Idlib.
00:02:39.751 --> 00:02:43.890
Yeah, you've written extensively about tensions between Damascus and the Kurdish-led
00:02:43.890 --> 00:02:45.492
forces in the Northeast.
00:02:46.030 --> 00:02:50.784
What would meaningful Kurdish integration into the Syrian state actually look like in practice?
00:02:51.144 --> 00:02:54.478
That's another great question. And I think what we're seeing as a result of
00:02:54.478 --> 00:02:58.510
this integration agreement that was signed by both sides in January,
00:02:58.812 --> 00:03:02.118
we are seeing significant movement on the military front.
00:03:02.118 --> 00:03:07.628
We're seeing efforts and an agreement both to have more senior level Kurdish
00:03:07.628 --> 00:03:09.058
officials in the Ministry of
00:03:09.058 --> 00:03:15.198
Defense, and we're seeing the beginnings of integration by unit of former
00:03:15.598 --> 00:03:17.638
Syrian Democratic Forces elements.
00:03:17.958 --> 00:03:23.268
So interestingly enough, on the security and military side, there is progress being made.
00:03:23.268 --> 00:03:28.218
What's far more difficult is on the political side, where I think you are seeing, frankly,
00:03:28.618 --> 00:03:33.878
emerging and maybe even more fractious differences with respect to
00:03:34.238 --> 00:03:39.231
cultural rights, even education, language, and of course, under all of that
00:03:39.347 --> 00:03:45.553
political authority and what that looks like, how is it devolved out into Kurdish-majority areas.
00:03:46.011 --> 00:03:50.098
And in the beginning of the transition in 2025, there were clashes in Sueda
00:03:50.438 --> 00:03:54.905
and also on the coast with Alawite communities. How do you assess those areas now?
00:03:55.235 --> 00:03:59.458
Again, we're seeing, I guess, in terms of on the coast, these Alawite-dominant
00:03:59.458 --> 00:04:05.888
areas, we have not seen recently the kinds of very concerning sectarian violence in Syria.
00:04:05.888 --> 00:04:10.598
But on that score, much more needs to be done in the realm of transitional justice
00:04:10.598 --> 00:04:14.780
and institutionalizing the approach to transitional justice.
00:04:15.315 --> 00:04:19.443
With respect to the Druze in Sweda, that is still very much a bubbling,
00:04:19.443 --> 00:04:24.033
intense area. There really is no Syrian central government authority in the
00:04:24.033 --> 00:04:28.672
heart of Sweda, this Druze-dominant district in southern Syria.
00:04:29.026 --> 00:04:34.603
And no real sense of how those differences will be bridged. And I think that
00:04:34.603 --> 00:04:37.455
is going to be an area to watch going forward.
00:04:37.757 --> 00:04:41.063
And how do you assess the performance of Ahmad al-Shadda, the president,
00:04:41.063 --> 00:04:44.753
in the 18 months since he emerged from obscurity, or at least from his nom de
00:04:44.753 --> 00:04:46.412
guerre, to become leader?
00:04:46.766 --> 00:04:50.883
Well, become leader of Syria and really burst out onto the international stage
00:04:50.883 --> 00:04:53.223
in just really, to be honest, remarkable ways.
00:04:53.223 --> 00:04:56.563
I mean, addressing the UN General Assembly this past September,
00:04:56.563 --> 00:05:02.022
the first time in over 60 years that a Syrian leader addressed the UN General Assembly.
00:05:02.469 --> 00:05:07.497
Building out relations with the United States, including an Oval Office visit
00:05:07.497 --> 00:05:10.927
with President Trump, deepening ties across Europe.
00:05:10.927 --> 00:05:16.617
In fact, the upcoming G7 summit, Syria has been invited as an observer country,
00:05:16.617 --> 00:05:18.137
which is really remarkable.
00:05:18.137 --> 00:05:22.177
He's also done an incredible job of building out ties in the region,
00:05:22.177 --> 00:05:26.437
certainly with Gulf countries who really want to see Syria stabilized.
00:05:26.437 --> 00:05:32.097
They view Syria as a geostrategic asset in the region, a place that could really
00:05:32.097 --> 00:05:35.847
serve as a connector between the Gulf and Europe, something that was thought
00:05:35.847 --> 00:05:40.137
of before the current war with Iran has even greater importance now.
00:05:40.137 --> 00:05:44.517
And so he's done a remarkable job in terms of building out Syria's credibility
00:05:44.517 --> 00:05:46.034
in the international community.
00:05:46.173 --> 00:05:51.217
He's doing more at home, but I think that is an area that really still needs
00:05:51.217 --> 00:05:56.397
more work, both in terms of these earlier governance questions that I raised, but also
00:05:56.837 --> 00:06:04.067
in a way matching that superb international outreach with greater domestic outreach.
00:06:04.067 --> 00:06:10.947
And more effort, I think, is needed to really speak to Syria's many different
00:06:10.947 --> 00:06:17.807
constituencies, not only sectarian and ethnic communities, but even within the Sunni community.
00:06:17.807 --> 00:06:21.286
And so I think this is something that he certainly has the capability to do.
00:06:21.646 --> 00:06:25.787
It'll be interesting to see if, having now shored up his international ties,
00:06:25.787 --> 00:06:28.792
is he able to do more to consolidate domestically.
00:06:29.175 --> 00:06:31.757
One of the big challenges now, of course, is reconstruction.
00:06:32.257 --> 00:06:36.457
And with costs being estimated at more than $200 billion, what are the most
00:06:36.457 --> 00:06:38.521
urgent priorities for rebuilding Syria?
00:06:38.806 --> 00:06:42.022
And what role can the international community play realistically?
00:06:42.480 --> 00:06:45.383
Given donor fatigue. Yeah, where to start on that?
00:06:45.383 --> 00:06:50.363
I mean, I had the great opportunity to visit Syria in November and went to Daraya,
00:06:50.663 --> 00:06:55.803
one of the more devastated areas just outside of Damascus, actually within Damascus.
00:06:55.803 --> 00:07:00.643
And it was really quite something, Christian, to see the level of devastation.
00:07:00.643 --> 00:07:04.963
And it's a reminder of just how significant this rebuilding is.
00:07:05.303 --> 00:07:10.433
So starting from the ground up. There's a need to address the widespread UXO,
00:07:10.433 --> 00:07:14.963
unexploded ordinance challenges. And in fact, we're seeing people die every
00:07:14.963 --> 00:07:18.237
month from having come in contact with these unexploded mines.
00:07:18.614 --> 00:07:23.123
Rubble removal. And then, of course, reconstruction, reconstruction of homes,
00:07:23.123 --> 00:07:25.841
let alone buildings of health facilities.
00:07:26.213 --> 00:07:29.487
And then there's the need for the delivery of essential services,
00:07:29.661 --> 00:07:33.813
electricity, which is foundational to any sort of private sector investment,
00:07:33.813 --> 00:07:35.083
education, and so forth.
00:07:35.083 --> 00:07:39.633
So the task is enormous. There is a certain degree, I think,
00:07:39.633 --> 00:07:45.163
of excitement isn't quite the word, but enthusiasm by Syrians that see still an opportunity.
00:07:45.163 --> 00:07:50.213
But I would also say it's a bit of a closing window because Syria is suffering
00:07:50.213 --> 00:07:54.942
economically. There are more than 90% of Syrians that live under the poverty line.
00:07:55.296 --> 00:08:01.513
They have issues with food insecurity, inflation, all of which could be compounded
00:08:01.513 --> 00:08:04.809
by the reverberations of the Iran war.
00:08:05.215 --> 00:08:08.896
And then your last point about donor fatigue, that is very real.
00:08:09.285 --> 00:08:14.613
So all of these needs are happening in an environment of decreasing humanitarian
00:08:14.613 --> 00:08:19.413
budgets. The World Food Program, for example, just halved its assistance to
00:08:19.413 --> 00:08:22.723
Syria in May, and that's going to have an enormous effect on.
00:08:23.262 --> 00:08:26.402
And then lastly, I think we have to think about the role of the Gulf,
00:08:26.402 --> 00:08:28.806
which prior to the Iran war, we saw
00:08:29.166 --> 00:08:33.652
Qatar and Saudi Arabia step up and play a very important role,
00:08:33.652 --> 00:08:39.012
both in terms of stabilizing Syria, providing assistance for salaries,
00:08:39.012 --> 00:08:41.908
helping the electrical system to get back up and running.
00:08:42.018 --> 00:08:47.202
Now, with their own problems at home, it raises big questions about how much
00:08:47.202 --> 00:08:51.381
they can and would be willing to provide Syria going forward.
00:08:51.828 --> 00:08:56.774
Even with a new transition government, millions of Syrians still remain displaced,
00:08:57.197 --> 00:08:59.246
both within the country and abroad.
00:08:59.838 --> 00:09:04.478
And what conditions would need to exist for safe refugee return and for durable
00:09:04.478 --> 00:09:06.821
solutions for internally displaced Syrians?
00:09:06.996 --> 00:09:11.148
So these are all interconnected problems. So they have to have a place to return to.
00:09:11.568 --> 00:09:16.458
So there needs to be much more in the realm of shelter, rebuilding homes.
00:09:16.806 --> 00:09:21.305
They have to have work to be able to sustain themselves. So issues around livelihoods.
00:09:21.642 --> 00:09:24.558
They want to have schools in order to be able to send their children.
00:09:24.558 --> 00:09:28.468
So rebuilding the education system. They need essential services.
00:09:28.898 --> 00:09:34.388
All of these kinds of impediments, I think, are what get in the way of both
00:09:34.388 --> 00:09:41.280
refugee return and even IDP return. And then lastly, I think there is this issue of social cohesion.
00:09:41.791 --> 00:09:44.728
This is a country that's been through a devastating war.
00:09:45.028 --> 00:09:49.378
And so being able to start to address some of the invisible issues,
00:09:49.378 --> 00:09:54.458
the trauma that has been experienced across the culture, and beginning to re-knit
00:09:54.458 --> 00:09:59.791
the social fabric, all of these are going to be essential building blocks for sustained return.
00:10:00.238 --> 00:10:04.428
You mentioned before the Gulf states, and one of the problems after 2011,
00:10:04.428 --> 00:10:09.268
after the uprising, was rivalries playing out within Syria, especially between
00:10:09.268 --> 00:10:11.778
some of the Gulf states, and Turkey was involved.
00:10:12.260 --> 00:10:16.658
Do you see external actors now pulling more in one direction,
00:10:16.658 --> 00:10:21.217
or is there a risk once again that regional political rivalries could play out,
00:10:21.374 --> 00:10:25.147
thinking not just the Gulf states, but also Turkey or Israel as well? Yeah.
00:10:25.710 --> 00:10:31.172
I do think that the Gulf states learned important lessons from their engagement
00:10:31.172 --> 00:10:36.432
during the Civil War, where we did see, indeed, deep rivalries across the Gulf
00:10:36.432 --> 00:10:40.478
countries that played out inside Syria, an arena for their competition.
00:10:40.907 --> 00:10:45.621
It had the adverse effect of really deepening and protracting the conflict.
00:10:46.080 --> 00:10:52.002
Now, with the promise of what a stabilized Syria could bring for the region,
00:10:52.002 --> 00:10:57.362
I think you are seeing a concerted effort amongst GCC countries to work together.
00:10:57.362 --> 00:11:00.582
Some are more in the lead, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, for example.
00:11:00.582 --> 00:11:05.822
But we're not seeing the kinds of rivalries and working at cross purposes in
00:11:05.822 --> 00:11:08.358
Syria that we had seen during the conflict.
00:11:08.782 --> 00:11:12.612
I'd also add, you mentioned Turkey, and Turkey is also playing a really very
00:11:12.612 --> 00:11:18.708
important role by virtue of the close ties that Turkey has to the current transition government.
00:11:19.203 --> 00:11:23.204
In Syria. And there, too, you've seen a rapprochement between,
00:11:23.204 --> 00:11:27.884
for example, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, where they are actually working in a harmonized
00:11:27.884 --> 00:11:30.900
fashion. They're working together. There's deeper cooperation.
00:11:31.242 --> 00:11:36.234
I would argue part of a much broader regional reordering that we are witnessing.
00:11:36.234 --> 00:11:41.325
Now, there is the issue of competition between Turkey and Israel.
00:11:41.436 --> 00:11:47.014
And Syria, unfortunately, is poised to be an arena for that competition.
00:11:47.014 --> 00:11:50.784
We have seen since the collapse of the Assad regime that Israel has,
00:11:50.784 --> 00:11:55.844
of course, taken a position. It has undertaken strikes against military targets, etc.
00:11:56.736 --> 00:12:01.284
I think understandable concern in Israel about what it means to have a former
00:12:01.284 --> 00:12:05.989
al-Qaeda leader in power in Damascus, especially after October 7.
00:12:06.111 --> 00:12:11.463
But you are also seeing continued on and off military action,
00:12:11.625 --> 00:12:16.954
incursions on the ground. Israel occupies some portion of Syria beyond the demilitarized zone.
00:12:17.349 --> 00:12:23.014
And then also, I think, a little bit of interference in that Druze-Syrian government
00:12:23.014 --> 00:12:26.173
tension and perhaps sowing more dissension
00:12:26.544 --> 00:12:32.854
within the Druze community, perhaps in the name of keeping Syria fragmented and off balance.
00:12:32.854 --> 00:12:39.094
And of course, broad concerns by Israel about Turkey and Turkish ambitions and
00:12:39.094 --> 00:12:43.611
having a strong Turkish ally right on Israel's border.
00:12:44.029 --> 00:12:48.374
And do you think the U.S. will remain engaged in Syria if policy bandwidth or
00:12:48.374 --> 00:12:51.274
in-region resources in the Middle East get focused elsewhere,
00:12:51.274 --> 00:12:56.601
thinking obviously of the focus on the Iran war, the economic and energy consequences of that?
00:12:57.123 --> 00:13:00.740
And if there's a change in U.S. administration at some point,
00:13:00.740 --> 00:13:02.394
so it's just more of a bipartisan issue.
00:13:02.608 --> 00:13:06.820
Yeah, I mean, I guess a few thoughts on that. I mean, we've seen bandwidth issues
00:13:06.820 --> 00:13:11.270
already in the U.S. government. We are seeing a U.S. government that is somewhat
00:13:11.270 --> 00:13:13.950
hollowed out at the State Department, the NSC, etc.
00:13:14.370 --> 00:13:19.290
So that's an issue that pertains really globally. And certainly the Iran war
00:13:19.290 --> 00:13:22.150
has drawn an inordinate amount of attention.
00:13:22.150 --> 00:13:26.950
But that being said, Ambassador Tom Barak, who is ambassador to Turkey and now
00:13:26.950 --> 00:13:31.802
was recently named special presidential envoy to Syria and Iraq,
00:13:31.935 --> 00:13:35.470
in addition to his, he's played that role, but it's been he's been re-upped
00:13:35.470 --> 00:13:37.067
and given a slightly different title.
00:13:37.601 --> 00:13:41.900
He's in a very important position and has, I think, enormous influence by virtue
00:13:41.900 --> 00:13:46.488
of his role as ambassador to Turkey and having responsibilities for Syria and Iraq.
00:13:46.929 --> 00:13:50.400
He's quite engaged. And I think you are seeing the U.S.
00:13:50.400 --> 00:13:55.410
Government remain engaged with Syria. Of course, President Trump himself has
00:13:55.410 --> 00:13:58.110
even a personal liking of Ahmad al-Shadda.
00:13:58.110 --> 00:14:01.640
He's had him into the Oval Office. You've seen the U.S. government undertake
00:14:01.640 --> 00:14:04.990
a number of important measures, including and most importantly,
00:14:04.990 --> 00:14:12.162
the repeal of Caesar sanctions efforts to try and spur investment in Syria as a way forward.
00:14:12.720 --> 00:14:15.962
But the question of does this last is a whole nother one.
00:14:15.962 --> 00:14:20.582
And I do think Syria is one of the interesting places where you largely see
00:14:20.582 --> 00:14:27.442
bipartisan consensus on Syria, on the importance of Syria, on the positive development
00:14:27.442 --> 00:14:30.882
of a new government in Syria and the collapse of the Assad regime.
00:14:30.882 --> 00:14:34.542
But as you know, Christian, we're in an incredibly uncertain world.
00:14:34.542 --> 00:14:39.292
And so whether or not the U.S. government is able to sustain its attention on
00:14:39.292 --> 00:14:44.062
Syria is really going to be, I'm afraid, at the whim of many other kinds of
00:14:44.062 --> 00:14:47.438
developments that happen not only in the Middle East, but even globally.
00:14:47.711 --> 00:14:51.522
And then just looking ahead, what do you see as the biggest factors that will
00:14:51.522 --> 00:14:56.715
determine whether Syria moves towards stability or potentially falls back into fragmentation?
00:14:57.034 --> 00:15:03.942
I think for me, the critical factor is governance. And whether or not the Shara government.
00:15:04.511 --> 00:15:10.152
Is able to not only consolidate and regain control over the entire country,
00:15:10.652 --> 00:15:14.962
it's made great progress in that regard, but also how does it govern?
00:15:14.962 --> 00:15:21.630
And again, we have to remember that Syria is a mosaic of different religions and ethnicities.
00:15:22.111 --> 00:15:29.164
And what is essential for any post-conflict stabilization effort to be successful
00:15:29.344 --> 00:15:32.734
is governance that is inclusive, that is representative.
00:15:33.298 --> 00:15:37.837
If the Syrian transition government can get that right, in my view,
00:15:38.214 --> 00:15:43.472
that will serve as a key foundation for the country to move forward toward a
00:15:43.472 --> 00:15:45.393
more stable and prosperous Syria.
00:15:45.817 --> 00:15:50.932
Yes, I think we have to remember what Ahmad al-Shadda took on in 2024 after
00:15:50.932 --> 00:15:55.946
almost 14 years of a devastating civil conflict that had so many different,
00:15:56.289 --> 00:15:59.992
it cut so many ways and cities were destroyed.
00:16:00.219 --> 00:16:04.692
No, absolutely. I mean, we should not forget where Syria has started from in
00:16:04.692 --> 00:16:05.912
terms of this transition.
00:16:05.912 --> 00:16:10.642
And in that regard, it is remarkable and quite stunning to think that actually
00:16:10.642 --> 00:16:13.842
Syria is one of the more stable countries in the Middle East today,
00:16:13.842 --> 00:16:17.312
that it has remained largely insulated from the Iran war.
00:16:17.312 --> 00:16:21.482
Again, I think, due to the adept diplomacy of President Shara and his foreign
00:16:21.482 --> 00:16:26.212
minister, and that there are great strides being made to bring the country forward.
00:16:26.212 --> 00:16:29.762
And I don't certainly don't want to detract from that. But I also think we should
00:16:29.762 --> 00:16:32.716
be very clear eyed about the magnitude of the challenge.
00:16:32.902 --> 00:16:35.613
Well, that's a great way to end. Mona, thank you very much for joining us.
00:16:35.798 --> 00:16:37.180
Thank you so much for having me.
00:16:44.466 --> 00:16:47.909
This has been Baker Briefing, where we make news make sense.
00:16:48.060 --> 00:16:51.634
The podcast is brought to you by Rice University's Baker Institute of Public
00:16:51.634 --> 00:16:56.174
Policy in Houston, Texas, ranked the number one university-affiliated policy
00:16:56.174 --> 00:16:58.207
research institution in the world.
00:16:58.509 --> 00:17:03.565
This episode was produced by Shannon Moriarty, with audio production led by Kevin Young.
00:17:03.750 --> 00:17:06.862
Other production support was provided by Leslie-Marie Aguilar,
00:17:06.995 --> 00:17:09.230
Ed Bailey, and Anna-Martin Hill.
00:17:09.521 --> 00:17:14.174
If you like what you hear, leave a review or get in touch at bakerbriefing at
00:17:14.174 --> 00:17:16.562
rice.edu. Thanks for joining us.