00:00:00
Speaker 1: Fine of them the must have financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore. This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
00:00:22
Speaker 2: David Frame joins us in studio from Craig's Investment Partners. Good afternoon, David. That song there is Billy Joels scenes from an Italian restaurant. Now you haven't been in Italy, but you've been Spain recently.
00:00:35
Speaker 3: Yes, visiting our daughter who's been over there living three years. So it was great, very good.
00:00:40
Speaker 2: How Spain going at the moment economy wise and everything, it's not.
00:00:45
Speaker 3: In a good way. The EU didn't really treat Spain so well, so I think tourism is a big thing for them, and we saw a lot of tourist spots and they were quite busy, so that's probably good.
00:00:56
Speaker 2: So their economy is not their flesh at the moment.
00:00:59
Speaker 3: No, No, that The amazing thing I saw traveling through from train all the way to the link of the country was there's a whole lot of farm land with nothing on it.
00:01:10
Speaker 2: Really.
00:01:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's startling to see just acres and acres and acres of nothing growing and just barren land. Yeah, but it was a great holiday.
00:01:19
Speaker 2: The GDT going up one point five percent very quickly over these figures David and hydrous milk fat up one point one, butter back two point six, butter milk powder up nine, cheddarback three point six, lactose up three point seven, mozzarella four point seven rise, skim milk powder three and whole milk powder. The bakhooda up two point two. So good to see a rise after a couple of drops we've seen in the last three or so months of the GDT, it's still pretty good.
00:01:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah that the recent rises have been good and probably helps offset a wee bit of that fuel bill that's creeping in. Yeah, it's good for New Zealand.
00:01:59
Speaker 2: The Middle East. We're just going to keep seeing these things. To talk about the fuel prices, how they fluctuate, I mean ebbing and flowing at the moment, I think the back about sixty five cents and what it was, say six weeks ago, you would have seen it over there traveling on the Is it the euro in Spain? Yes, yes, And what's it like over here? What are they how are they suffering from the Middle East situation as such?
00:02:24
Speaker 3: Well, I talk about tourist numbers, and I guess for a lot of us, including myself, you go on holiday if you've got money left in the bank account after paying all your bills. If you've got a high fuel bill, then you've got less available, haven't you to go on holiday? So I guess that's the big risk to them. The other rest to the fuel is that it will flow through packaging costs, fuel costs, freight costs will flow through to the supermarket shelves, and that's the other area we haven't really seen yet. But if high fuel possess, then we're going to walk into the supermarket and find that costs are going up. That will all inflation, interest rates will go back up, some mortgages could cost more. It's similar to where we were two or three years ago that wasn't because of fuel prices, but high inflation and high interest rates raally hem people's ability to go on holiday and spend that discretionary dollar. So that's where I hope we don't end up.
00:03:19
Speaker 2: We're talking about the three factors here, particularly in New Zealand's fuel, fertilizer, and plastics because everything we export is covered in plastic.
00:03:29
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, and I want one of my best friends from primary school, he works as a cfo's chief financial officer for a plastics company, packaging company, and he said, it's just bed limit the moment, they don't know how to price products going out the door. Price of products coming in the door is shooting up, freights going up. He hope it settles down. Otherwise, you know, they just have to pass those costs on otherwise they go bust.
00:03:53
Speaker 2: Look, it's the price of plastickets. It's a pretty niche market. I suppose, yeah it is.
00:03:59
Speaker 3: And you might think, well, if my block of cheese comes in plastic and that plastic goes up ten percent, it's probably not going to affect the price of cheese too much. But then you've also got the price of freight, the fuel for that block of cheese, for the supermarket. So all these little increments all impact us as an economy, and they suck the good money out of the economy.
00:04:22
Speaker 2: Really, So anyway, going to start seeing these effects at the supermarket.
00:04:27
Speaker 3: I think if prices persist, and I had hope that fuel prices were going down, and we see them at the pumps have come down, but extraordinarily on the world market, the price of oil today is just as high as it's been over the last year. So the raw price of fuel is still pretty up there and I think that will flow through if it persists. Now the Middle East, the equation with the war and Trump and Iran and Israel. I wouldn't put any money on where that's heating. I hope it's resolved. But every day you wake up and there's a new item on the news, isn't there.
00:05:01
Speaker 2: Whose economy would you rather be in charge of at the moment, New Zealand or Australia.
00:05:07
Speaker 3: I'd have to say Australia, really yeah, just because we haven't got a checkbook as a country, we haven't got much of a balance sheet as a government. We're heading into an election, and so in Australia they're not much better. They've got high inflation, they've just put their interest rates up, They've definitely got some weakness in parts of their economy. So it's not flash but right now I can't see us having a big surge economically in the next year or so.
00:05:36
Speaker 2: But we're consistently being told that New Zealand has handled this situation over the past couple of months, probably as efficiently as any country.
00:05:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I believe that with the Middle Eastern position. But I think as an economy overall, we're more brittle and fragile than Australia. And if we look at the agricultural prisis we talk about the dairy prices overnight, that's fantastic for us because we haven't got many things to hang our hat on.
00:06:01
Speaker 2: So this is where the spring equation for red meat, as far as prices, really comes to front of mind. Yes, it does.
00:06:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this morning we had a Rabobank analyst on our research call, so every morning all our advisors dial into a research call and Rabobank were quite chipper about the red meat price, particularly beef. So that's encouraging for our local economy.
00:06:26
Speaker 2: What about lamb?
00:06:29
Speaker 3: A little bit more hesitant on lamb, the analysts thought that beef would hold up because of the world beef supply. America beef numbers are going down. They still need our beef. Lamb is a bit of a question mark. It certainly had good pricing this season.
00:06:48
Speaker 2: Craig's Investment Partners. How do people get in touch?
00:06:50
Speaker 3: You can walk into our office where at one Erk Street opposite the Gore New World, or you can find us online at craigsip dot com.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: And you've got to hang out a refin the doll on your trip, yes, which was awesome.
00:07:03
Speaker 3: My daughter lives about half an hour from Raffer's tennis academy. I'm a big tennis fan, not a good tennis player, but when along I actually saw him in the flesh, which was fantastic.
00:07:14
Speaker 2: Good only your David enjoy the other.
00:07:16
Speaker 3: Thank you.
00:07:16
Speaker 2: I started the fight when the money got safe. David Fray, mccraig's Investment Partners. You're listening to the muster. Peter Ellen is up next, Our dear farming correspondent from the Glenure
Speaker 1: Fine of them the must have financial segment with Craig's Investment Partners in Gore. This information is general in nature and it's not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice Provider disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com.
00:00:22
Speaker 2: David Frame joins us in studio from Craig's Investment Partners. Good afternoon, David. That song there is Billy Joels scenes from an Italian restaurant. Now you haven't been in Italy, but you've been Spain recently.
00:00:35
Speaker 3: Yes, visiting our daughter who's been over there living three years. So it was great, very good.
00:00:40
Speaker 2: How Spain going at the moment economy wise and everything, it's not.
00:00:45
Speaker 3: In a good way. The EU didn't really treat Spain so well, so I think tourism is a big thing for them, and we saw a lot of tourist spots and they were quite busy, so that's probably good.
00:00:56
Speaker 2: So their economy is not their flesh at the moment.
00:00:59
Speaker 3: No, No, that The amazing thing I saw traveling through from train all the way to the link of the country was there's a whole lot of farm land with nothing on it.
00:01:10
Speaker 2: Really.
00:01:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's startling to see just acres and acres and acres of nothing growing and just barren land. Yeah, but it was a great holiday.
00:01:19
Speaker 2: The GDT going up one point five percent very quickly over these figures David and hydrous milk fat up one point one, butter back two point six, butter milk powder up nine, cheddarback three point six, lactose up three point seven, mozzarella four point seven rise, skim milk powder three and whole milk powder. The bakhooda up two point two. So good to see a rise after a couple of drops we've seen in the last three or so months of the GDT, it's still pretty good.
00:01:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah that the recent rises have been good and probably helps offset a wee bit of that fuel bill that's creeping in. Yeah, it's good for New Zealand.
00:01:59
Speaker 2: The Middle East. We're just going to keep seeing these things. To talk about the fuel prices, how they fluctuate, I mean ebbing and flowing at the moment, I think the back about sixty five cents and what it was, say six weeks ago, you would have seen it over there traveling on the Is it the euro in Spain? Yes, yes, And what's it like over here? What are they how are they suffering from the Middle East situation as such?
00:02:24
Speaker 3: Well, I talk about tourist numbers, and I guess for a lot of us, including myself, you go on holiday if you've got money left in the bank account after paying all your bills. If you've got a high fuel bill, then you've got less available, haven't you to go on holiday? So I guess that's the big risk to them. The other rest to the fuel is that it will flow through packaging costs, fuel costs, freight costs will flow through to the supermarket shelves, and that's the other area we haven't really seen yet. But if high fuel possess, then we're going to walk into the supermarket and find that costs are going up. That will all inflation, interest rates will go back up, some mortgages could cost more. It's similar to where we were two or three years ago that wasn't because of fuel prices, but high inflation and high interest rates raally hem people's ability to go on holiday and spend that discretionary dollar. So that's where I hope we don't end up.
00:03:19
Speaker 2: We're talking about the three factors here, particularly in New Zealand's fuel, fertilizer, and plastics because everything we export is covered in plastic.
00:03:29
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, and I want one of my best friends from primary school, he works as a cfo's chief financial officer for a plastics company, packaging company, and he said, it's just bed limit the moment, they don't know how to price products going out the door. Price of products coming in the door is shooting up, freights going up. He hope it settles down. Otherwise, you know, they just have to pass those costs on otherwise they go bust.
00:03:53
Speaker 2: Look, it's the price of plastickets. It's a pretty niche market. I suppose, yeah it is.
00:03:59
Speaker 3: And you might think, well, if my block of cheese comes in plastic and that plastic goes up ten percent, it's probably not going to affect the price of cheese too much. But then you've also got the price of freight, the fuel for that block of cheese, for the supermarket. So all these little increments all impact us as an economy, and they suck the good money out of the economy.
00:04:22
Speaker 2: Really, So anyway, going to start seeing these effects at the supermarket.
00:04:27
Speaker 3: I think if prices persist, and I had hope that fuel prices were going down, and we see them at the pumps have come down, but extraordinarily on the world market, the price of oil today is just as high as it's been over the last year. So the raw price of fuel is still pretty up there and I think that will flow through if it persists. Now the Middle East, the equation with the war and Trump and Iran and Israel. I wouldn't put any money on where that's heating. I hope it's resolved. But every day you wake up and there's a new item on the news, isn't there.
00:05:01
Speaker 2: Whose economy would you rather be in charge of at the moment, New Zealand or Australia.
00:05:07
Speaker 3: I'd have to say Australia, really yeah, just because we haven't got a checkbook as a country, we haven't got much of a balance sheet as a government. We're heading into an election, and so in Australia they're not much better. They've got high inflation, they've just put their interest rates up, They've definitely got some weakness in parts of their economy. So it's not flash but right now I can't see us having a big surge economically in the next year or so.
00:05:36
Speaker 2: But we're consistently being told that New Zealand has handled this situation over the past couple of months, probably as efficiently as any country.
00:05:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I believe that with the Middle Eastern position. But I think as an economy overall, we're more brittle and fragile than Australia. And if we look at the agricultural prisis we talk about the dairy prices overnight, that's fantastic for us because we haven't got many things to hang our hat on.
00:06:01
Speaker 2: So this is where the spring equation for red meat, as far as prices, really comes to front of mind. Yes, it does.
00:06:09
Speaker 3: Yeah, and this morning we had a Rabobank analyst on our research call, so every morning all our advisors dial into a research call and Rabobank were quite chipper about the red meat price, particularly beef. So that's encouraging for our local economy.
00:06:26
Speaker 2: What about lamb?
00:06:29
Speaker 3: A little bit more hesitant on lamb, the analysts thought that beef would hold up because of the world beef supply. America beef numbers are going down. They still need our beef. Lamb is a bit of a question mark. It certainly had good pricing this season.
00:06:48
Speaker 2: Craig's Investment Partners. How do people get in touch?
00:06:50
Speaker 3: You can walk into our office where at one Erk Street opposite the Gore New World, or you can find us online at craigsip dot com.
00:06:58
Speaker 2: And you've got to hang out a refin the doll on your trip, yes, which was awesome.
00:07:03
Speaker 3: My daughter lives about half an hour from Raffer's tennis academy. I'm a big tennis fan, not a good tennis player, but when along I actually saw him in the flesh, which was fantastic.
00:07:14
Speaker 2: Good only your David enjoy the other.
00:07:16
Speaker 3: Thank you.
00:07:16
Speaker 2: I started the fight when the money got safe. David Fray, mccraig's Investment Partners. You're listening to the muster. Peter Ellen is up next, Our dear farming correspondent from the Glenure
