Commodities Could Explode 54% as Oil Surges 9.6% and Yields Break Out ~ Monday Market Moves

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Recording Date 9-11-2026. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8%, but its developing bull flag keeps my bias pointed higher, while the VIX jumped 9.2%. The bigger macro signal is coming from bonds, with the U.S. 10-year yield closing near 4.97% and the 20-year reaching 5.39%. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out of a major cup-and-handle formation, producing potential measured targets from roughly 190 to 220, with the percentage-based projection implying a 54% move. Gold fell 1.5%, silver dropped 2.3%, and copper declined 2%, creating several critical technical levels to watch.

I also dig into where the next opportunities and risks may be forming across commodity equities. WTI oil exploded 9.6% after reaching roughly $104, while Brent gained 8.6% after approaching $110, although I expect both to cool next week. Uranium remains especially interesting, with long-term contracts at $96.50 per pound while spot trades $6.50 cheaper, and URNM plunged 8.2%, potentially opening lower entry points. I'm also watching GDX, SILJ, COPX, XLE, FCG and PICK, which includes Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport-McMoRan and Glencore. Across these markets, the 200-day moving average remains one of my key reference points for finding attractive risk-reward setups.

Key Insights in this episode

✅ Bloomberg Commodity Index breaks out with a potential 54% measured move toward roughly 220.

✅ U.S. 10-year yields reach 4.97%, threatening their highest level in roughly 19 years.

✅ WTI oil surges 9.6% to roughly $104 before Steve turns bearish for next week.

✅ Gold drops 1.5%, with a breakdown potentially exposing more than 10% downside.

✅ Uranium term contracts hit $96.50 per pound as URNM plunges 8.2%.

✅ Copper falls 2%, while COPX and PICK offer potential setups near their 200-day averages.

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Chapters

0:00 S&P 500 Dollar Yields And Commodity Breakout

05:05 Gold PHYS And GDX Outlook

08:58 Silver PSLV And SILJ Setup

11:36 Copper And COPX Forecast

12:41 Uranium SRUUF And URNM Opportunities

16:32 Oil WTI Brent And XLE Outlook

18:27 Natural Gas And FCG Forecast

20:21 Coal Market Outlook

21:18 Platinum And Palladium Setup

22:29 Nickel Futures Breakdown

22:55 PICK Mining ETF Outlook

23:34 Closing Market Outlook

DISCLAIMER: Steve Barton and In It To Win It are not registered investment advisers or broker-dealers. This is general, impersonal education and opinion - not individualized financial advice. Stocks, price levels, position sizes, and personal trades are not instructions to act. Investing involves risk, including total loss. I may own and trade securities discussed. Any of these links may be affiliate links, meaning at no extra cost to you In It To Win It may get compensation. Any sponsored travel will be disclosed. Information may change without notice. Do your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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