Brazil Heads to a Runoff and Vale Jumps, Chile Copper Strike Clock Starts, and Vedanta Plans US$2.3 Billion Push

Brazil Heads to an October 25 Runoff, and Vale Jumps: First, Brazil, where yesterday's vote did not settle anything, but it moved markets. With 99.99% of sections counted, the Superior Electoral Court has Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 47.03%, or 56.10 million votes, and President Lula da Silva at 45.16%, or 53.88 million. Neither passed 50%, so the two meet in a runoff on October 25. Polls had expected Lula to finish first.
Escondida and Centinela Enter the Mediation Window as China Returns Thursday: Next, Chile, where two of the biggest copper mines in the world are inside a legal countdown. At Escondida, BHP's flagship, about 1,020 supervisors in Sindicato Number Two rejected the company's final offer, and 95% voted to authorise a strike, according to Shanghai Metals Market. The union objects to limited pay improvements, multi-tasking requirements and a proposed 14 by 14 shift rotation. Chilean law requires at least five days of government mediation before a legal walkout, and that can be extended by five more.
Vedanta Plans US$2.3 Billion Copper Push and Eyes a Tuticorin Restart: Meanwhile, in India, Vedanta Copper has laid out plans to invest about 2.3 billion dollars over the next three to four years to lift output beyond 1 million tonnes a year by 2030, according to The Economic Times. Roughly 2 billion dollars is earmarked for Saudi Arabia, covering mining, smelting and copper rod production.
Rare Earths Left Off the US-China Tariff Lists as Heavy Supply Stays Tight: Next, rare earths. A report published Sunday by InvestorNews argues that last month's summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping left the West still buying its way to supply. Xi left Washington on September 25 after a three-day state visit. The White House fact sheet said the two countries would "continue to work on U.S. concerns regarding supply chain shortages related to rare earths and other critical minerals," with the aim of returning shipments to "appropriate levels."
Gold Fields Eyes a Sweeter Offer as Northern Star's New CEO Starts: Finally, gold deal-making. Northern Star's incoming chief executive, Suresh Vadnagra, is due to take office today, according to Mining Digital, just as the company fends off Gold Fields. Northern Star rejected Gold Fields' unsolicited proposal, valued at A$38.7 billion, as undervalued, and called the timing "opportunistic and unsolicited." Gold Fields says combining would create the world's second-biggest gold miner.
Sources:
- Investing.com via Yahoo Finance — Brazil Heads to an October 25 Runoff, and Vale Jumps: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/world-indices/articles/u-shares-brazilian-companies-rally-083813487.html
- The Rio Times — Brazil Heads to an October 25 Runoff, and Vale Jumps: https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-election-markets-real-ibovespa-adrs-2026/
- The Northern Miner — Brazil Heads to an October 25 Runoff, and Vale Jumps: https://www.northernminer.com/news/brazil-mine-licence-system-faces-court-test/1003895404/
- Shanghai Metals Market — Escondida and Centinela Enter the Mediation Window as China Returns Thursday: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104143111-escondida-supervisors-vote-95-to-authorise-strike-talks-enter-mandatory-mediation
- Fastmarkets — Escondida and Centinela Enter the Mediation Window as China Returns Thursday: https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/unions-at-escondida-centinela-philexs-padcal-copper-mines-vote-for-strike-action/
- Reuters — Escondida and Centinela Enter the Mediation Window as China Returns Thursday: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/fatal-accident-radomiro-tomic-mine-codelco-partially-suspends-operations-2026-10-01/
- Databoks — Escondida and Centinela Enter the Mediation Window as China Returns Thursday: https://databoks.katadata.co.id/en/market/statistics/fb73cc493c80e11/copper-price-rises-for-three-consecutive-days
- The Economic Times — Vedanta Plans US$2.3 Billion Copper Push and Eyes a Tuticorin Restart: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/indl-goods/svs/metals-mining/vedanta-copper-plans-2-3-billion-capex-tamil-nadu-smelter-restart-back-on-agenda/articleshow/134626840.cms
- Shanghai Metals Market — Vedanta Plans US$2.3 Billion Copper Push and Eyes a Tuticorin Restart: https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104143357-vedanta-plans-23-billion-copper-expansion-as-restart-of-400000-tonne-tuticorin-smelter-returns-to-agenda
- InvestorNews — Rare Earths Left Off the US-China Tariff Lists as Heavy Supply Stays Tight: https://investornews.com/critical-minerals-rare-earths/technology-metals-report-10-04-2026-a-summit-without-a-rare-earth-deal-leaves-the-west-buying-its-way-to-supply/
- Reuters — Gold Fields Eyes a Sweeter Offer as Northern Star's New CEO Starts: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/gold-fields-aims-woo-northern-star-investors-after-miners-rebuff-2026-09-30/
- Mining Digital — Gold Fields Eyes a Sweeter Offer as Northern Star's New CEO Starts: https://miningdigital.com/news/gold-fields-shougang-ccs-john-crane-top-5-mining-stories
- WAM via Big News Network — Gold Fields Eyes a Sweeter Offer as Northern Star's New CEO Starts: https://www.bignewsnetwork.com/news/279352005/gold-prices-edge-higher-on-monday