00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymark. We're part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: I am Chad Nolman.
00:00:12
Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:21
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:23
Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Dude, we are living on the edge today.
00:00:27
Speaker 1: We're coming on just within seconds of the Ravens beating the Cowboys by a field.
00:00:33
Speaker 2: Goal in a wild, wild game.
00:00:38
Speaker 1: We had four games in the early window today. With about four minutes remaining in all of them, we were 4-0 to start the day. With two minutes left, we were 1-3.
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Speaker 3: Okay.
00:00:52
Speaker 1: Through those four games, we finished two and two. The final game for us, we had loved the Ravens all week. We had taken them at two and a half. We had taken them on the money line. We had been betting the Ravens. Unfortunately, it was three and a half in the contest. That's what we bet them at. As usual, Ravens blow.
00:01:12
Speaker 2: A 10-point lead. We won some of our bets.
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Speaker 1: Most of our bets, we did not win the contest bets. So we finished two and three, but a thrilling two and three. With as wide a range of variant opportunities and records as there could have been Sunday night, NFL Week 3 Reaction Show, we are going to recap the misery and the glory from our final five picks in our free Sharper Square $ 25, 000 pro football pick-em contest. We won with the Colts and the Browns, lost with the Chargers, Dolphins, and now Ravens.
00:01:46
Speaker 2: Last pick-in was the Colts. Last out was the Cardinals. The theme for the.
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Speaker 1: Day is betting on teams who basically dominated in every aspect, exactly the way you need when betting dogs, yet.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: Still go two and three. Simon.
00:02:03
Speaker 1: Let's start with the, I'm going to flip the script here, Matt Mitchell, but I want to start with the Ravens and the Cowboys because we're just coming off it and it's kind of all I can think about in my head. The beginning of the game, I bet the Ravens live minus one and a half. I bet the Ravens on the money line live when they were down 10, seven, I just thought they were going to be so much more dominant than they were. And they were as usual for about three and a half quarters. And then the same thing happens that always happens. What do you think is wrong with this team?
00:02:41
Speaker 3: I mean, it's tough to say there's a lot going on with it right now, but yeah, if I was a fan who cares, right. Or even, people like us who have the minus two and a half, they found a way you gave seven seconds to Lamar somehow found a way like you have to be over the moon. Cause you stole a win there.
00:02:59
Speaker 2: You really stole a win.
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Speaker 3: You stole a game where, I mean, we were pulling our hairs out, like them getting stopped on fourth and one from the goal. I mean, middle of the field with their kind of, you're just this, this offense, obviously something's a little off for them, but yeah, that's a type of game that it felt like everything was going wrong for them. And they just stayed in it. And, Pretty insane. Pretty insane. The fact that it ended that way at the end of the game. And if you're a Cowboys player or fan, you're sick to your stomach. It felt like you outplayed the Ravens and you just had a couple of little mistakes here and there. And Dak played out of his mind, especially on third downs. And it was just a brutal, brutal loss. So, yeah, we were in right now, obviously, two and three hurts. But like you said, it's we're right there being five and four and one, three and two. But we ended two and three. And We're both sick. We left so many wins out there on the board. So it's our own fault. We had too many games we like. Like any time, any week we have eight games we like, we hate it. But if we have a week where we have four games we really like, that's usually our favorites week. So it's tough when you have so many games you like. And the hook killed us today. Every game we covered, we didn't really care about the hook. And the games we didn't cover, the hook killed us. We lost two different games by half a point. So pretty sickening. Yeah.
00:04:09
Speaker 1: And the Ravens game, unfortunately, was a game where we talked about on the show this morning, we liked it. We really believe this Ravens team is so much better. And this Cowboys defense really would have no chance to stop the Ravens rushing game. And for the most part, that's the way it played out, except in three very specific plays where they completely dominated the Ravens rushing game. That Barnum dude coming out of nowhere, this could be a Wally Pipps story for overshown. the Cowboys linebacker who is always injured. And now Barnum comes in as a rookie and, you know, JJ Watt keeps talking about, oh my God, he's got the green dot and he's playing like crazy. He had so many good stops on Derrick Henry to keep him from getting the short yards they needed to get.
00:04:59
Speaker 2: We've talked about Brian Schottenheimer. I actually love him as a coach. I think like what he does with his offense and the players clearly.
00:05:06
Speaker 1: Like what he's doing. They are all in on him. Really impressive game for the Cowboys. Almost in the loss, it made me more impressed than obviously with the Ravens kind of almost giving it away the way they did.
00:05:19
Speaker 2: But man, man, we almost.
00:05:22
Speaker 1: Kept that game out of the final five and then we decided we needed a favorite.
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Speaker 3: Regret.
00:05:31
Speaker 2: It hurts. No regrets. No ragrets. You know, and also.
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Speaker 1: Obviously, we had it at two and a half and we felt good about that. So hopefully people were listening earlier in the week. Houston at Indy. There were a bunch of games this week where teams were 0-2, they were at home, they were home dogs. You and I cannot agree on Washington and Seattle. We both like Tampa Bay, but the line moved and We decided we didn't want to invest in Baker. We didn't want to invest in the Bucs in the contest when it was one and a half.
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Speaker 3: For the record, you liked the Bucs. I was always on Minnesota. I gave up the stat.
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Speaker 2: Oh, right. That's right. That's right. That's fair.
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Speaker 1: That's fair. It's a very good feedback, Simon. And feedback is a gift, as we know. The Colts, we were both on the entire time. And it truly looked like They were going to do exactly what we needed them to do. But it kept going on and on and on. And the Texas defense started to get a little bit better. And all of a sudden, there was a very real chance in those final couple of minutes that this was a game.
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Speaker 2: Where we lost it. And it was the right side the entire time.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, but it was also a weird score game just like the Browns game because we had the two and a half. I don't know. I never felt worried. It was just the way the number kept landing. It was like even if they come down the field and score, they're still going to be up one or they're still going to have to kick a field goal and we'd still be up one or up two. That game just... It's the dream games. Easy under, easy team to bet in the Colts like we talked about. It's just an 0-2 divisional home dog. The public is still overrating that Houston team. Now, I didn't think they'd win it. I felt like the exact type of game they would steal at the end there. Pretty, pretty shocking. They're 0-3 back-to-back seasons with that defense.
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Speaker 2: With that defense.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I talked about it before going to the game. Colts were plus 500 to win the division. The books have kind of left them out of it. It was really just the Jags and Houston. Now Jags, they just look so dominant. They're going to be probably minus 150, minus 175 now just because 0-3 Houston now. it's a lot to overcome. And if you're a Colts side, better that like we were. It's an ugly, gross game, a game that Jonathan Taylor wasn't great, but it's like you kind of just want to play the number there. And that was definitely a game where it was Colts dominating for most of the game and Houston had a late rally, but that's why you take the points, right? Even if Houston had won this game on a late field goal, still would have covered. So, yeah, really, really impressive win by the Colts, a team that could have easily given up Found a way to win and, yeah, hate to be the team that's playing Houston next week at 0-3.
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Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about that because that's a game that is definitely going to be in the lean conversation.
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Speaker 2: Houston is a one-and-a-half-point favorite. I can't read my writing.
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Speaker 3: Already up to two-and-a-half-point favorite against Dallas.
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Speaker 2: Against Dallas.
00:08:38
Speaker 1: I think it's the Cowboys. All right, so we know where the sharp money is going in that one. People might want to go get the Texans while they can at the best number they can find.
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Speaker 2: Colts had more yards in this game.
00:08:48
Speaker 1: 11 more minutes in time of possession. To me, that is a theme for three different games that we're talking about here. So Daniel Jones was great early in the game and then sort of completely got swallowed up by that Texans pass rush that just kept.
00:09:13
Speaker 2: Getting to him again and again and again and again. There were fumbles. There were a lot of sacks.
00:09:17
Speaker 1: It became a really intense game We talked about this on the show this morning and it came to fruition. That Texans offensive line is dreadful. Like again, second week in a row. I don't know if you remember this play, David Montgomery has got to convert on a fourth and short and they can't do it. They can't even get, they can't even get a push. Like it wasn't even close. It didn't need a measurement. Thinking about the Texans going forward, Their defense is going to get better. We saw that over the course of the game today. They can't be contenders with the offense that they have. Even if CJ has been playing better, which he is, they just can't. be contenders that way.
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Speaker 3: No, they can't be contenders if they don't win their division. If you're going to have to go on the road to Buffalo or Kansas City or Cincinnati or Baltimore, you're always going to be the big dog. And what you just talked about there, it's going to be If it's a tight game at the end, you're just not going to trust CJ. We've seen it time and time again. As good as CJ is, like you said, the defense knows he has to pass the ball, especially in the final two minutes. He keeps getting sacked. These defenders save a move for this exact scenario because they know they can beat this guy one-on-one on that offensive line, and you're right. They don't have a pillar. I know Tunsell's out for the year, and he hasn't helped Washington at all, but after moving off Tunsell, they've never had that one guy that can rely on the offensive line. It's just showed up. you said three straight weeks here, like CJ has played well enough and they've just have not found a way to win any of these games. Yeah.
00:10:54
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the comments in the chat, by the way. So keep them coming.
00:10:58
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to get to them as we talk about these games, Kansas city at Miami, Miami was an 11 and.
00:11:08
Speaker 2: A half point dog to start the week.
00:11:10
Speaker 1: We both played Miami at the biggest number possible.
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Speaker 2: It went down to 10 and a half, 10.
00:11:17
Speaker 1: Simon, I didn't see before kickoff because I was traveling from DC back home after parents weekend at Maryland. I don't know if it actually got down below 10, but dude, this game, what did we say all week? It's hard to win by double digits on the road. Patrick Mahomes, I think you had the stat this morning, 0-4-1 in his career as a double digit favorite on the road. And the Chiefs in close games, they decide to run out the clock.
00:11:48
Speaker 2: Except today, they didn't. And that hurt my feelings.
00:12:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal. But it's another game where that's why you can't get too high or low, where it's the handicap, the reasoning, everything about it sound. The public won that game. That was the dream. And like you said, it dropped down to nine and a half. So the books took tons and tons and tons of money on the Chiefs and you know, a bunch of little plays here and there, obviously losing a chance, three carries into the game. Yeah. Hurts, but they were still able to run the game, run the ball pretty well. Overall, Miami, you know, Ollie Gordon, who came in for him, he averaged like two yards of carry. He had 17 carries. Like that guy was killing us overall, but Malik Willis, like using his legs, he was good. And a gamer, I think he had like a 55% completion percentage. He struggled, obviously he, But when we talked about the Chiefs, they just were going to look sluggish. And we both agree what killed us was it's in the fourth quarter. There's less than six minutes left. Miami has the ball at the middle of the field. It's fourth and six. I get why the coach is going for it, right? Because in his mind, he's like, I don't want to punt to Mahomes because he could just run the clock out. Sure. But your defense up to that point is going up 17 points. Yep. So it didn't really make sense, especially where like even before that, they had a, what you could say was a 39 sack or, you know, a breakup of a play of Mahomes in the end zone. They call that a rough in the passer penalty and they drive the field score touchdown there. Miami had a touchdown called back on a illegal motion or something like that. The player wasn't set before the ball was snapped. Yeah. That's another seven points taken away. It's there. It was all lined up for Miami. Just didn't break our way. So yeah, brutal loss. We look like idiots. I mean, that's another one where it's that's life taking these ugly dogs. Like, yeah the guy who walked into a sports book took the chiefs today as a double-digit favorite yeah he's happy he's making fun of us that was a good bet by him bad bad read by us and um it just did not break our way for us in that game so it's tough like that miami team maybe we'll just try to avoid them because we're gonna like them every week because once again they're gonna be a ton of free points for them again it's just even the pros now are gonna be so burned that some of them are just gonna do what we're talking about which is just staying away from them um but it's It's hard. I just see a lot of potential in this team. I see how they can move the ball. They just have these little moments where you just realize they're one of the worst teams in football, and that's why they burned us. Like you said, at the end of that game, giving up that touchdown, they're not even trying to score the Chiefs, and they gave away a wide-open Chiefs touchdown to Kelsey. So pretty brutal.
00:14:26
Speaker 2: That was it.
00:14:27
Speaker 1: I wrote in my notes, like, are you freaking kidding me? The Chiefs have a third and six from the 10-yard line. They're up 17-10. There's like three minutes left. The Andy Reid playbook in that situation, you kick the field goal, you're.
00:14:47
Speaker 2: Up 10, you're done. It's third down.
00:14:52
Speaker 1: Andy Reid in that situation with three minutes left, he runs the ball, burns the clock, takes off 80 seconds because they'll kick the field goal. All of a sudden, there's under two minutes left, a minute and a half left in the game. On 36, they throw a freaking touchdown pass. Like, he hasn't done that in five years on a.
00:15:15
Speaker 2: Play like that.
00:15:17
Speaker 1: I really thought, Simon, we had this game because the Dolphins immediately go down 7-0. The next drive, they go 17 plays, 91 yards, nine minutes and 27 seconds to tie the game. It might've been the most complete drive in.
00:15:33
Speaker 2: The NFL this year.
00:15:35
Speaker 1: It was long runs. It was Malik Willis making great plays. Like, dude, with six minutes left in the game before that play that Hatley called when they decided to go for it down 17-10, Miami had 20 more plays, 10.
00:15:53
Speaker 2: Minutes more time of possession.
00:15:55
Speaker 1: And I think they had gained the Chiefs by like 60 or 70 yards at that point.
00:16:00
Speaker 2: The guy who walked into the.
00:16:01
Speaker 1: Sportsbook today and bet the Chiefs at minus nine and a half, minus 10, whatever it was, and is walking out feeling like a winner and we're like, we're idiots. I guess you deserve what you get. But man, that one, that's a tipping point game for us to me.
00:16:19
Speaker 2: That's such a bummer.
00:16:20
Speaker 3: I mean, like I said, it hurts, but you don't want to change. You don't want to let it affect your mentality too much.
00:16:24
Speaker 1: No, no.
00:16:24
Speaker 3: It does hurt.
00:16:24
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. And I agree with you.
00:16:27
Speaker 3: The public, though, wins... 35, 40% of the time. So that's like, that's the best. If you're a public better, those are the best games. Cause you stole that one and you know it. It's like, you just said it, they got outplayed basically the whole game and they stole at the very end. And that's, that's the best feeling when you, when the backdoor works for you, especially when you take a favorite like that.
00:16:48
Speaker 1: At Ernie's biscuits, eight, six, nine, one is saying, no, the winning side is the winner. The saying is the right side is the winning side. Ernie, if you're going to come into the chat and you're going to come after us for analyzing the game, at least get the saying right. Speaking of getting it right, I need to tell you all about the new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, They've locked the trade or take a huge fee, but Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your teams. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 50 in your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat. where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code SHARP when you sign up. That's code SHARP to get $ 50 free after you trade just $ 10. Simon, another one where we were playing the number, going back and forth, back and forth, and sort of when we needed it the most, the Cleveland Browns plus two and a half hosting the Carolina Panthers. Look, Deshaun Watson looked totally serviceable I loved this game from start to finish, even though the first half was so bad. It was so bad, but such intense, bad football. Like Deshaun Watson, he was running well. He was converting plays. He ran people over. With 5.43 left in the first half, we had the first points of the game. The Browns got to the 29-yard line and kicked a field goal. It was the first time in the game that either team had gotten past their other one's 30-yard line. And then the second half, Bryce Young did Bryce Young things and went completely haywire and almost made us regret betting against our favorite quarterback and our favorite team, who has 12 comfort-behind victories in the past two years, the most in the NFL.
00:19:18
Speaker 2: But we got away with it.
00:19:21
Speaker 3: As our lovely fans remind us, we're making them bet a true ass off, which is what this game was. Just two ass teams that someone's got to win the game. Both quarterbacks were below, I think, passing, below 55% completion percentage. Bryce Young threw the ball 48 times, which is insane to think in that game where you know, his running backs weren't terrible. They're averaging four yards per carry. Like Bryce overall, like you said, the first half, he was just terrible. I think at half it was 10, three, like so bad game. I think at one point it was 10, nine. Then all of a sudden it's 12, 10. We get a field goal, go up 13, 12. And like I said, it was a weird number. So it's like, all right, we're in a great spot. We have a two and a half price drives. The field gets a really impressive touchdown. And I think we're dead. Because what you're saying about Deshaun Watson, he has these moments. Overall, he was terrible in this game.
00:20:14
Speaker 1: Terrible.
00:20:15
Speaker 3: Really could not put anything together consistently.
00:20:17
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson, Simon, he got booed.
00:20:20
Speaker 1: They were winning most of the game, but he got so bad in the second half and started missing players so badly, he got booed at the end of the third quarter.
00:20:29
Speaker 3: But then he found it. He found it. This is two weeks in a row now. Watson has driven down the field for a game-winning touchdown drive, which is like– bash him all we want he's terrible for three quarters whatever it was two quarters at least but in that fourth quarter in the biggest moment he finds it and he drove that field so um you're two and one cleveland browns same record as the cincinnati bangles two and one same record as the ravens like they're that whole division now is two and one which is just mind-blowing you think about the nfc north uh afc north and i just I'm looking at this Cleveland team and it's like, is this as good as it gets? Are we going to jump off this train now? Because it does feel like we got away with one here. We're like, you've had the full on betting experience, but I still think the public is going to undervalue them next week. I really do. They just, no one likes betting this team. And even during this game, it just felt like the whole time they're going to keep us in it. And yeah, now they're coming for us. I'm falling more and more in love with this Browns team. It's just a gross gritty team. So, Hopefully they have a bad number next week so we can avoid them. But yeah, really happy we got that covered because obviously we desperately need it after getting back to Miami and the Chargers game. So coming out of the 1 p.m. is going from 4-0 to 1-3 to 2-2. Sucks, but we'll take it.
00:21:47
Speaker 1: Well, look, Todd Munkin, I'm starting to love this guy. You know, 60-year-old. Is Todd Munkin the coach signet of the NFL? Because he takes no prisoners.
00:22:01
Speaker 2: The dude.
00:22:01
Speaker 1: He could have gone up six points, right? Late in the fourth quarter, he could have gone up six points. They were up, I forget what the score was, 21-18 or whatever. And there's a minute left. He can kick the easy field goal. They've got a fourth and one. He decides to go for it and leave time on the clock and give Bryce Young the ball back. And thank God the Browns defense, you said it this morning, the Browns defense, no matter who's playing for him, just plays better at home.
00:22:27
Speaker 2: Mason Graham today was amazing.
00:22:29
Speaker 3: Everywhere.
00:22:29
Speaker 1: Had a couple sacks. He was in the backfield the whole time. Really made the difference in that game. But Todd Munkin got this team to 2-1 with Deshaun Watson.
00:22:39
Speaker 2: God love him. You know who nobody loves?
00:22:41
Speaker 1: Including us, Los Angeles Chargers, because we had them as our brass balls trade of the week at 7.5. They lost the game by 8. Tom Brady said it best. This is just bad football. Exciting football, but bad football. Third and 10. Chargers need it for their lungs.
00:23:04
Speaker 2: 514 left. They're at the Bills' 45-yard line. They're losing.
00:23:10
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert finally gets a clean pocket, throws a great ball. Quentin Johnston, in his stomach, doesn't catch it with his hands, lets it get into his body, falls right between his elbows. As bad as the Bills were giving up the ball five freaking times, The Chargers offense was pathetic.
00:23:34
Speaker 2: Alert here for Josh Allen.
00:23:35
Speaker 1: Looking for Allen.
00:23:36
Speaker 3: He's got it.
00:23:41
Speaker 1: He's a winner.
00:23:42
Speaker 3: No, he's a player. He's a football player through and through.
00:23:46
Speaker 1: And there he goes.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: Josh Allen.
00:23:48
Speaker 2: Huge run. An excuse me touchdown.
00:23:52
Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
00:23:55
Speaker 1: Goodness.
00:23:56
Speaker 3: There's no fear.
00:23:57
Speaker 2: No way.
00:23:57
Speaker 3: He was big and strong in his life of flaming gold. Now I'm looking. It's in. A laser beam. Touchdown, Buffalo.
00:24:10
Speaker 1: And he's still gone.
00:24:13
Speaker 3: The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder. I'll just start with this stat, just to sum up this game. Because I had never seen anything like this in my entire life betting career. And I was like, this has never happened before. I know this has never happened. And I was wrong. Since 2013, teams with five plus turnovers. And so the other team has a minus four turnover margin or better. They are 3-81-1 straight up. So that's since 2013. So the three wins, the Bills over the Chargers today, the Jaguars over the Chargers in 2022, and the Broncos over the Chargers in 2015. Yeah, that's from our guy Evan Abrams. And it gets even worse, Chad. So they were a favorite of more than three points, the Bills. In the last 30 years, a team in this exact scenario. So they've had They have a losing turnover margin of four, and they're a favorite of more than three points. They are 0-108 against the spread in this exact spot. So this has never happened before. Our team has never covered what the Bills just did. So that just sums up our day. Should have easily had another winning three-and-two day, but that's what's so brutal. You can't let these ones hurt too much because it's just going to drive you insane. There is no reasoning behind it. We could kill Herbert, that costly pick he threw. Dicker, the kicker, missing that field goal, just being so stagnant offensively, letting Josh Allen where, and we joke, Josh Allen might have one or two truly bad games a year. And this is one of the worst ones he could ever possibly have to start. And they didn't take advantage. It was like 10-3, then 10-10. And it's just like, how are you not pulling away from this Bills team? So we've talked about it. I don't know what the Chargers can do. Their schedule only gets harder. This is a game that you steal this game, maybe it gives hardball the rest of the season, but they are 0-6 or 1-6 in seven weeks. I mean, how do you, as an ownership, keep running it back? So I can't believe that stat was real about the Chargers. I mean, it doesn't matter if the pieces change. It doesn't matter if it's Fulp Rivers, Herbert. It doesn't matter if the head coach is. It's the same old Chargers. It really is.
00:26:34
Speaker 1: Listen, I'm getting dragged in the comments right now, including by– The at sharper square handle, which is our producer, Matt Mitchell, for facetiously comparing Todd Munkin to Kurt Cignetti.
00:26:48
Speaker 3: I agree.
00:26:50
Speaker 2: It was a freaking joke. Do you remember how.
00:26:54
Speaker 3: Bad the Hoosiers were for the last hundred years?
00:26:57
Speaker 2: Does nobody understand tone of voice?
00:26:59
Speaker 1: We're freaking saying this out loud right now.
00:27:02
Speaker 2: It's not on email. It's not a text. It was a freaking joke.
00:27:06
Speaker 3: You said it serious. There was no wink and nod. So I'm glad you clarified it.
00:27:09
Speaker 1: I have a very dry delivery. You guys, we've been together for a long time. You guys should all know that. Hey, listen, Trevor Lawrence was amazing. Drake May, maybe we did our bottom five quarterback list. First career pick by Travis Hunter off of Drake May in the Jackson zone at the end of the first half. Touchdown could have made it 14-10. Field goal could have made it 14-6. He had a fumble where the ball just slipped out of his hand. In the past six games, he's got 15 turnovers.
00:27:39
Speaker 2: Just terrible. Trevor was ridiculous. Drake May was terrible.
00:27:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one hurt. A game, you know, should have been on.
00:27:46
Speaker 2: We loved it from the beginning.
00:27:48
Speaker 3: Stupid enough to talk ourselves out of it. Everything went exactly how we thought it would, right? That Jags defense is a good matchup against that Patriots offense. Well, that A.J. Brown, I mean, Matt Collins is his number one receiver. It's like impossible for Drake and Drake's just going to be getting killed by everybody right now because his fan base was so loud, which they should have been, right? Defending their guy. But you had people, unfortunately for them, in the media that was really hyping him up as well, where it's like anyone watched those playoff defenses said everyone's going to run the same exact defensive scheme against them next year. And we're through three weeks, and every defense is running the exact same thing. And without AJ, it only amplifies it. He just does not have that safety. So, you know, Drake may... Was he crying on the sideline today? I hope so. I hope that's a real video. I don't know what's AI anymore, but this, I think, is all good for Drake because he just was at the pinnacle last year. He was almost MVP, went to a Super Bowl. You just don't want him to be another Dan Marino, right? A guy that got there in year two and had a great career but never, ever came close ever again. I know it hurts right now, Patriots fans. You get the Bills next week, so it might not get any better. You might really be you know, one in three here, but if you steal that game, you beat the bills, you're two and two. You've, you've, you know, there is, there isn't, there is an outcome at the end of this, but right now the Patriots fans in my lives that I talk to, this is, I think this is the lowest they've been on Drake May in, you know, obviously over a year. Like they were so happy. So of course. And right now they're just like, is he, they're texting me. Is he ruined? It's like, he's not ruined. It's just, I feel like the coaching's failed him a little bit, but I also think that A.J. Brown, we have not talked enough about it, how big of a deal that was. Yeah, brutal miss by us. I was really pissed at myself and just us in general that we didn't have this one in there. It's you know a bad miss.
00:29:40
Speaker 1: Uh i am too it was chad's choice i should have pushed for it by the way i know how much you love the discord jag's money line was the winning vote getter for the grouper in the discord you can go join the discord at read the number.com you'd be winning some bets like the jag's money line Arizona and San Francisco, we both loved Arizona. We almost put it in instead of the Colts. They're down 23-6. But the Niners had so many injuries on the defensive line. And then all of a sudden, Dre Greenlaw went out with a little bit of an injury. And Trent Williams went out. And all of a sudden, the second half, this game exploded. And the Cardinals, we're going to start falling in love with the Cardinals because it felt like they had the ball the entire second half.
00:30:20
Speaker 2: They cut it to 23-20.
00:30:23
Speaker 1: The Niners score a junk touchdown when they, too, could have just run out the clock. And the Cardinals somehow, with a minute left, find a way to cover this game for us.
00:30:33
Speaker 2: So thank you to Mike LaFleur. We're loving your team. We're loving Jacoby Brissett. We're loving the way they play to the end of the game. Nice job, Arizona Cardinals.
00:30:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll quickly give Flowers a party. Pretty top three in MVP race right now. He had four touchdowns this game. Even when he struggled, like he had– Started the game, I think it was 11 for 11, and then he kind of dipped off a little bit. He only finished the game with 15 completions, but using his legs when he needed to, I mean, put up 36 points. Great, great game by him. Great game by Shanahan, but our questions about this 49ers defense is so real with all the injuries they've had. That no pass rush really burned them the second half, and now Mike Evans, when he missed some time, he's banged up as well.
00:31:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, he went out.
00:31:15
Speaker 3: Enjoy your 3-0, so take what you can if you're a 49ers fan.
00:31:21
Speaker 2: At Tricks 56 is saying that they have a question. So if you got it, put it in. I'm trying to read it as we go.
00:31:28
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell will try to catch it if it's a nice question.
00:31:31
Speaker 2: If you're going to be mean to us, I'm kidding. Hero of the week. See, kidding. It was a joke. I'm being dry.
00:31:38
Speaker 1: Simon, for me, it's Deshaun Watson. The guy had this team in a position to win. Then he let it slip away, getting booed, not being able to get the ball downfield. 4.86 yards per pass attempt. And at the end of the game, despite all the odds being against him, he fights Harold Fannin Jr. in the end zone. They win the game. Nice job, Deshaun Watson, leading the 2-1. Todd, Kurt Cignetti, Munkin, Browns.
00:32:12
Speaker 3: I was going to go with Kirk, but Lamar at the end of the game, how can you not give it to him? Like that seven seconds makes the throw. Steal a game down in Brazil. I mean, all-time type of win and all-time loss if you're a Cowboys fan. So it really feels like it's since my homes, and we've not had a situation like that. One play, downfield, kick a field goal, win a game. Really, really impressive.
00:32:33
Speaker 1: Atrix56 just wants to know if we can please discuss if the Raiders are for real. Dude, we just discussed it. We love the Raiders. We've been betting on the Raiders. We were disappointed we didn't put the Raiders into the contest. Simon has been on the Raiders basically every single week.
00:32:50
Speaker 3: Find out next week. They get the Chiefs. That's the test. You're 3-0 at home against the Chiefs.
00:32:56
Speaker 1: And they're four and a half point underdogs. I already put that on my list of leans.
00:33:01
Speaker 3: Raiders next four games. Chiefs at Patriots, at home against the Bills, at home against the LA Rams.
00:33:08
Speaker 2: Shame on you.
00:33:08
Speaker 1: I was going to go with Jeff Hatley for the call at midfield when you're down seven with six minutes left and you got three timeouts and you've been playing great for basically giving the game away to the Chiefs. But You got to go with Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert. The red zone for the Chargers was so horrific. You just pointed out some great stats about how the Chargers are historically inept in certain situations. With the hype and the creativity around Mike McDaniel and all the conversation about how they were going to unleash Justin Herbert and all the stupid freaking videos, which by the way, you and I did not buy into with Mike McDaniel getting excited about his arm and looking like, a babe in the woods, I can't believe how talented this guy is, and Jim Harbaugh. They had one red zone drive that was just inside handoffs. They settled for a field goal, another one to start the second half after a Bills turnover in which they went from second and one at the goal line to third and long because of penalties. Everything is amiss with this offense. For a quarterback, everyone continues to say has generational arm talent. with an offensive coordinator that people keep saying is a creative genius and is in the exact right spot, and with a head coach who is now 0-3 for the first time in his career after going 0-2 for the first time in two and a half decades of coaching at any level, this team is a complete and total train wreck, dumpster fire. Shame on the Los Angeles Chargers. Shame on Justin Herbert. Shame on Mike McDaniel. Shame on Jim Harbaugh.
00:34:45
Speaker 3: Shame, shame, shame, shame, shame, shame on you. Shame on you, Todd Bowles. First NFL team, NFL coach in history to go straight 0-12 against the spread. Never has happened before in NFL history. They set a record today. Shame, shame, shame, shame on you. If that doesn't have you fire head coach, I don't know what else can. You're making history about how bad you are and how overrated you are in public opinion. Bucs 0-3, all falls on the head coach. Shame on you, Todd Bowles.
00:35:21
Speaker 2: All right, Simon, some early leans.
00:35:25
Speaker 1: I liked the Texans against the Cowboys at minus one and a half.
00:35:29
Speaker 2: It's already moved.
00:35:31
Speaker 1: Raiders plus four and a half versus Kansas City. They're at Las Vegas. We're going to want to bet on a home dog in the division. Patrick Mahomes, usually at three or more, historically a good side. Carolina plus three at home against Detroit. We're a Carolina Panthers podcast. I was reminded that if we're a Carolina Panthers podcast, why we bet against in the past two weeks, it's because they've been favorites. But this week they will be home underdogs. Those are three that stuck out to me. I'm also interested in the Eagles, but I kind of need to see everything play out. because they're playing the Rams next week, but right now they're home dogs, two and a half.
00:36:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of really baby lines. I mean, they open up Seahawks minus six and a half at home against the Chargers. I'll throw a little piece on that. Why not? You can get– I know it sounds like there's no such thing as free money, but, I mean, here we are. What I would say one of the better teams that just coming off a bad loss, Cincinnati is minus two and a half at home against the Jaguars. That's going to be public all over Jags. If you want to fade them, I get it. The Browns are plus three right now at home on Thursday night against Pittsburgh. That's another one that jumps out to me where it's like that's going to be all the public love is going to be on Pittsburgh mostly. A couple more early bets. Kind of don't know what to do with it. The Giants are minus two and a half against Arizona at home. It's just a tempting line. It's like you're getting under a field goal against an Arizona team that's obviously struggling. You already talked about it a little bit at the start of the show, but you can get Houston right now at minus two, minus two and a half at home against Dallas. I have to do it. They're 0-3. I know. I agree with everyone that's saying Dallas is the better team and they can attack this Houston defense. I agree, but that's just– So hard to pass on that at home in this exact scenario.
00:37:47
Speaker 1: All right. Two and three week crushing two and three week, but also exhilarating. And I feel, you know, a couple of bad bounces. I don't, it's not the kind of two and three week where I'm like losing sleep on this one. Like I have in the past or certainly like last week, you know, with our, with our dreadful week.
00:38:05
Speaker 2: So feeling pretty good. That is our show.
00:38:09
Speaker 1: We will be back on Tuesday with our week four betting preview. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday, love you.
00:38:32
Speaker 3: He has a sense of freshness and bravado, which men are always eager to feel and to which they often respond.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square. We are presented by Polymark. We're part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:11
Speaker 2: I am Chad Nolman.
00:00:12
Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:21
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:23
Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:24
Speaker 2: Dude, we are living on the edge today.
00:00:27
Speaker 1: We're coming on just within seconds of the Ravens beating the Cowboys by a field.
00:00:33
Speaker 2: Goal in a wild, wild game.
00:00:38
Speaker 1: We had four games in the early window today. With about four minutes remaining in all of them, we were 4-0 to start the day. With two minutes left, we were 1-3.
00:00:51
Speaker 3: Okay.
00:00:52
Speaker 1: Through those four games, we finished two and two. The final game for us, we had loved the Ravens all week. We had taken them at two and a half. We had taken them on the money line. We had been betting the Ravens. Unfortunately, it was three and a half in the contest. That's what we bet them at. As usual, Ravens blow.
00:01:12
Speaker 2: A 10-point lead. We won some of our bets.
00:01:14
Speaker 1: Most of our bets, we did not win the contest bets. So we finished two and three, but a thrilling two and three. With as wide a range of variant opportunities and records as there could have been Sunday night, NFL Week 3 Reaction Show, we are going to recap the misery and the glory from our final five picks in our free Sharper Square $ 25, 000 pro football pick-em contest. We won with the Colts and the Browns, lost with the Chargers, Dolphins, and now Ravens.
00:01:46
Speaker 2: Last pick-in was the Colts. Last out was the Cardinals. The theme for the.
00:01:49
Speaker 1: Day is betting on teams who basically dominated in every aspect, exactly the way you need when betting dogs, yet.
00:01:58
Speaker 2: Still go two and three. Simon.
00:02:03
Speaker 1: Let's start with the, I'm going to flip the script here, Matt Mitchell, but I want to start with the Ravens and the Cowboys because we're just coming off it and it's kind of all I can think about in my head. The beginning of the game, I bet the Ravens live minus one and a half. I bet the Ravens on the money line live when they were down 10, seven, I just thought they were going to be so much more dominant than they were. And they were as usual for about three and a half quarters. And then the same thing happens that always happens. What do you think is wrong with this team?
00:02:41
Speaker 3: I mean, it's tough to say there's a lot going on with it right now, but yeah, if I was a fan who cares, right. Or even, people like us who have the minus two and a half, they found a way you gave seven seconds to Lamar somehow found a way like you have to be over the moon. Cause you stole a win there.
00:02:59
Speaker 2: You really stole a win.
00:03:01
Speaker 3: You stole a game where, I mean, we were pulling our hairs out, like them getting stopped on fourth and one from the goal. I mean, middle of the field with their kind of, you're just this, this offense, obviously something's a little off for them, but yeah, that's a type of game that it felt like everything was going wrong for them. And they just stayed in it. And, Pretty insane. Pretty insane. The fact that it ended that way at the end of the game. And if you're a Cowboys player or fan, you're sick to your stomach. It felt like you outplayed the Ravens and you just had a couple of little mistakes here and there. And Dak played out of his mind, especially on third downs. And it was just a brutal, brutal loss. So, yeah, we were in right now, obviously, two and three hurts. But like you said, it's we're right there being five and four and one, three and two. But we ended two and three. And We're both sick. We left so many wins out there on the board. So it's our own fault. We had too many games we like. Like any time, any week we have eight games we like, we hate it. But if we have a week where we have four games we really like, that's usually our favorites week. So it's tough when you have so many games you like. And the hook killed us today. Every game we covered, we didn't really care about the hook. And the games we didn't cover, the hook killed us. We lost two different games by half a point. So pretty sickening. Yeah.
00:04:09
Speaker 1: And the Ravens game, unfortunately, was a game where we talked about on the show this morning, we liked it. We really believe this Ravens team is so much better. And this Cowboys defense really would have no chance to stop the Ravens rushing game. And for the most part, that's the way it played out, except in three very specific plays where they completely dominated the Ravens rushing game. That Barnum dude coming out of nowhere, this could be a Wally Pipps story for overshown. the Cowboys linebacker who is always injured. And now Barnum comes in as a rookie and, you know, JJ Watt keeps talking about, oh my God, he's got the green dot and he's playing like crazy. He had so many good stops on Derrick Henry to keep him from getting the short yards they needed to get.
00:04:59
Speaker 2: We've talked about Brian Schottenheimer. I actually love him as a coach. I think like what he does with his offense and the players clearly.
00:05:06
Speaker 1: Like what he's doing. They are all in on him. Really impressive game for the Cowboys. Almost in the loss, it made me more impressed than obviously with the Ravens kind of almost giving it away the way they did.
00:05:19
Speaker 2: But man, man, we almost.
00:05:22
Speaker 1: Kept that game out of the final five and then we decided we needed a favorite.
00:05:30
Speaker 3: Regret.
00:05:31
Speaker 2: It hurts. No regrets. No ragrets. You know, and also.
00:05:39
Speaker 1: Obviously, we had it at two and a half and we felt good about that. So hopefully people were listening earlier in the week. Houston at Indy. There were a bunch of games this week where teams were 0-2, they were at home, they were home dogs. You and I cannot agree on Washington and Seattle. We both like Tampa Bay, but the line moved and We decided we didn't want to invest in Baker. We didn't want to invest in the Bucs in the contest when it was one and a half.
00:06:10
Speaker 3: For the record, you liked the Bucs. I was always on Minnesota. I gave up the stat.
00:06:15
Speaker 2: Oh, right. That's right. That's right. That's fair.
00:06:19
Speaker 1: That's fair. It's a very good feedback, Simon. And feedback is a gift, as we know. The Colts, we were both on the entire time. And it truly looked like They were going to do exactly what we needed them to do. But it kept going on and on and on. And the Texas defense started to get a little bit better. And all of a sudden, there was a very real chance in those final couple of minutes that this was a game.
00:06:46
Speaker 2: Where we lost it. And it was the right side the entire time.
00:06:52
Speaker 3: Yeah, but it was also a weird score game just like the Browns game because we had the two and a half. I don't know. I never felt worried. It was just the way the number kept landing. It was like even if they come down the field and score, they're still going to be up one or they're still going to have to kick a field goal and we'd still be up one or up two. That game just... It's the dream games. Easy under, easy team to bet in the Colts like we talked about. It's just an 0-2 divisional home dog. The public is still overrating that Houston team. Now, I didn't think they'd win it. I felt like the exact type of game they would steal at the end there. Pretty, pretty shocking. They're 0-3 back-to-back seasons with that defense.
00:07:28
Speaker 2: With that defense.
00:07:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, I talked about it before going to the game. Colts were plus 500 to win the division. The books have kind of left them out of it. It was really just the Jags and Houston. Now Jags, they just look so dominant. They're going to be probably minus 150, minus 175 now just because 0-3 Houston now. it's a lot to overcome. And if you're a Colts side, better that like we were. It's an ugly, gross game, a game that Jonathan Taylor wasn't great, but it's like you kind of just want to play the number there. And that was definitely a game where it was Colts dominating for most of the game and Houston had a late rally, but that's why you take the points, right? Even if Houston had won this game on a late field goal, still would have covered. So, yeah, really, really impressive win by the Colts, a team that could have easily given up Found a way to win and, yeah, hate to be the team that's playing Houston next week at 0-3.
00:08:24
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to talk about that because that's a game that is definitely going to be in the lean conversation.
00:08:30
Speaker 2: Houston is a one-and-a-half-point favorite. I can't read my writing.
00:08:35
Speaker 3: Already up to two-and-a-half-point favorite against Dallas.
00:08:38
Speaker 2: Against Dallas.
00:08:38
Speaker 1: I think it's the Cowboys. All right, so we know where the sharp money is going in that one. People might want to go get the Texans while they can at the best number they can find.
00:08:47
Speaker 2: Colts had more yards in this game.
00:08:48
Speaker 1: 11 more minutes in time of possession. To me, that is a theme for three different games that we're talking about here. So Daniel Jones was great early in the game and then sort of completely got swallowed up by that Texans pass rush that just kept.
00:09:13
Speaker 2: Getting to him again and again and again and again. There were fumbles. There were a lot of sacks.
00:09:17
Speaker 1: It became a really intense game We talked about this on the show this morning and it came to fruition. That Texans offensive line is dreadful. Like again, second week in a row. I don't know if you remember this play, David Montgomery has got to convert on a fourth and short and they can't do it. They can't even get, they can't even get a push. Like it wasn't even close. It didn't need a measurement. Thinking about the Texans going forward, Their defense is going to get better. We saw that over the course of the game today. They can't be contenders with the offense that they have. Even if CJ has been playing better, which he is, they just can't. be contenders that way.
00:10:02
Speaker 3: No, they can't be contenders if they don't win their division. If you're going to have to go on the road to Buffalo or Kansas City or Cincinnati or Baltimore, you're always going to be the big dog. And what you just talked about there, it's going to be If it's a tight game at the end, you're just not going to trust CJ. We've seen it time and time again. As good as CJ is, like you said, the defense knows he has to pass the ball, especially in the final two minutes. He keeps getting sacked. These defenders save a move for this exact scenario because they know they can beat this guy one-on-one on that offensive line, and you're right. They don't have a pillar. I know Tunsell's out for the year, and he hasn't helped Washington at all, but after moving off Tunsell, they've never had that one guy that can rely on the offensive line. It's just showed up. you said three straight weeks here, like CJ has played well enough and they've just have not found a way to win any of these games. Yeah.
00:10:54
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the comments in the chat, by the way. So keep them coming.
00:10:58
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to get to them as we talk about these games, Kansas city at Miami, Miami was an 11 and.
00:11:08
Speaker 2: A half point dog to start the week.
00:11:10
Speaker 1: We both played Miami at the biggest number possible.
00:11:13
Speaker 2: It went down to 10 and a half, 10.
00:11:17
Speaker 1: Simon, I didn't see before kickoff because I was traveling from DC back home after parents weekend at Maryland. I don't know if it actually got down below 10, but dude, this game, what did we say all week? It's hard to win by double digits on the road. Patrick Mahomes, I think you had the stat this morning, 0-4-1 in his career as a double digit favorite on the road. And the Chiefs in close games, they decide to run out the clock.
00:11:48
Speaker 2: Except today, they didn't. And that hurt my feelings.
00:12:00
Speaker 3: Yeah, brutal. But it's another game where that's why you can't get too high or low, where it's the handicap, the reasoning, everything about it sound. The public won that game. That was the dream. And like you said, it dropped down to nine and a half. So the books took tons and tons and tons of money on the Chiefs and you know, a bunch of little plays here and there, obviously losing a chance, three carries into the game. Yeah. Hurts, but they were still able to run the game, run the ball pretty well. Overall, Miami, you know, Ollie Gordon, who came in for him, he averaged like two yards of carry. He had 17 carries. Like that guy was killing us overall, but Malik Willis, like using his legs, he was good. And a gamer, I think he had like a 55% completion percentage. He struggled, obviously he, But when we talked about the Chiefs, they just were going to look sluggish. And we both agree what killed us was it's in the fourth quarter. There's less than six minutes left. Miami has the ball at the middle of the field. It's fourth and six. I get why the coach is going for it, right? Because in his mind, he's like, I don't want to punt to Mahomes because he could just run the clock out. Sure. But your defense up to that point is going up 17 points. Yep. So it didn't really make sense, especially where like even before that, they had a, what you could say was a 39 sack or, you know, a breakup of a play of Mahomes in the end zone. They call that a rough in the passer penalty and they drive the field score touchdown there. Miami had a touchdown called back on a illegal motion or something like that. The player wasn't set before the ball was snapped. Yeah. That's another seven points taken away. It's there. It was all lined up for Miami. Just didn't break our way. So yeah, brutal loss. We look like idiots. I mean, that's another one where it's that's life taking these ugly dogs. Like, yeah the guy who walked into a sports book took the chiefs today as a double-digit favorite yeah he's happy he's making fun of us that was a good bet by him bad bad read by us and um it just did not break our way for us in that game so it's tough like that miami team maybe we'll just try to avoid them because we're gonna like them every week because once again they're gonna be a ton of free points for them again it's just even the pros now are gonna be so burned that some of them are just gonna do what we're talking about which is just staying away from them um but it's It's hard. I just see a lot of potential in this team. I see how they can move the ball. They just have these little moments where you just realize they're one of the worst teams in football, and that's why they burned us. Like you said, at the end of that game, giving up that touchdown, they're not even trying to score the Chiefs, and they gave away a wide-open Chiefs touchdown to Kelsey. So pretty brutal.
00:14:26
Speaker 2: That was it.
00:14:27
Speaker 1: I wrote in my notes, like, are you freaking kidding me? The Chiefs have a third and six from the 10-yard line. They're up 17-10. There's like three minutes left. The Andy Reid playbook in that situation, you kick the field goal, you're.
00:14:47
Speaker 2: Up 10, you're done. It's third down.
00:14:52
Speaker 1: Andy Reid in that situation with three minutes left, he runs the ball, burns the clock, takes off 80 seconds because they'll kick the field goal. All of a sudden, there's under two minutes left, a minute and a half left in the game. On 36, they throw a freaking touchdown pass. Like, he hasn't done that in five years on a.
00:15:15
Speaker 2: Play like that.
00:15:17
Speaker 1: I really thought, Simon, we had this game because the Dolphins immediately go down 7-0. The next drive, they go 17 plays, 91 yards, nine minutes and 27 seconds to tie the game. It might've been the most complete drive in.
00:15:33
Speaker 2: The NFL this year.
00:15:35
Speaker 1: It was long runs. It was Malik Willis making great plays. Like, dude, with six minutes left in the game before that play that Hatley called when they decided to go for it down 17-10, Miami had 20 more plays, 10.
00:15:53
Speaker 2: Minutes more time of possession.
00:15:55
Speaker 1: And I think they had gained the Chiefs by like 60 or 70 yards at that point.
00:16:00
Speaker 2: The guy who walked into the.
00:16:01
Speaker 1: Sportsbook today and bet the Chiefs at minus nine and a half, minus 10, whatever it was, and is walking out feeling like a winner and we're like, we're idiots. I guess you deserve what you get. But man, that one, that's a tipping point game for us to me.
00:16:19
Speaker 2: That's such a bummer.
00:16:20
Speaker 3: I mean, like I said, it hurts, but you don't want to change. You don't want to let it affect your mentality too much.
00:16:24
Speaker 1: No, no.
00:16:24
Speaker 3: It does hurt.
00:16:24
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. And I agree with you.
00:16:27
Speaker 3: The public, though, wins... 35, 40% of the time. So that's like, that's the best. If you're a public better, those are the best games. Cause you stole that one and you know it. It's like, you just said it, they got outplayed basically the whole game and they stole at the very end. And that's, that's the best feeling when you, when the backdoor works for you, especially when you take a favorite like that.
00:16:48
Speaker 1: At Ernie's biscuits, eight, six, nine, one is saying, no, the winning side is the winner. The saying is the right side is the winning side. Ernie, if you're going to come into the chat and you're going to come after us for analyzing the game, at least get the saying right. Speaking of getting it right, I need to tell you all about the new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best new way to trade in sports in the past. If you wanted action on the game, you'd put some money in. And if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, They've locked the trade or take a huge fee, but Polymarket is a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports, buying in and selling out on your teams. When your team goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell it off at 40% when they come back to double your money. I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident you'll never go back to the other guys. They're giving you a free $ 50 in your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat. where you can see what everyone is trading on. So download the Polymarket app today and use code SHARP when you sign up. That's code SHARP to get $ 50 free after you trade just $ 10. Simon, another one where we were playing the number, going back and forth, back and forth, and sort of when we needed it the most, the Cleveland Browns plus two and a half hosting the Carolina Panthers. Look, Deshaun Watson looked totally serviceable I loved this game from start to finish, even though the first half was so bad. It was so bad, but such intense, bad football. Like Deshaun Watson, he was running well. He was converting plays. He ran people over. With 5.43 left in the first half, we had the first points of the game. The Browns got to the 29-yard line and kicked a field goal. It was the first time in the game that either team had gotten past their other one's 30-yard line. And then the second half, Bryce Young did Bryce Young things and went completely haywire and almost made us regret betting against our favorite quarterback and our favorite team, who has 12 comfort-behind victories in the past two years, the most in the NFL.
00:19:18
Speaker 2: But we got away with it.
00:19:21
Speaker 3: As our lovely fans remind us, we're making them bet a true ass off, which is what this game was. Just two ass teams that someone's got to win the game. Both quarterbacks were below, I think, passing, below 55% completion percentage. Bryce Young threw the ball 48 times, which is insane to think in that game where you know, his running backs weren't terrible. They're averaging four yards per carry. Like Bryce overall, like you said, the first half, he was just terrible. I think at half it was 10, three, like so bad game. I think at one point it was 10, nine. Then all of a sudden it's 12, 10. We get a field goal, go up 13, 12. And like I said, it was a weird number. So it's like, all right, we're in a great spot. We have a two and a half price drives. The field gets a really impressive touchdown. And I think we're dead. Because what you're saying about Deshaun Watson, he has these moments. Overall, he was terrible in this game.
00:20:14
Speaker 1: Terrible.
00:20:15
Speaker 3: Really could not put anything together consistently.
00:20:17
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson, Simon, he got booed.
00:20:20
Speaker 1: They were winning most of the game, but he got so bad in the second half and started missing players so badly, he got booed at the end of the third quarter.
00:20:29
Speaker 3: But then he found it. He found it. This is two weeks in a row now. Watson has driven down the field for a game-winning touchdown drive, which is like– bash him all we want he's terrible for three quarters whatever it was two quarters at least but in that fourth quarter in the biggest moment he finds it and he drove that field so um you're two and one cleveland browns same record as the cincinnati bangles two and one same record as the ravens like they're that whole division now is two and one which is just mind-blowing you think about the nfc north uh afc north and i just I'm looking at this Cleveland team and it's like, is this as good as it gets? Are we going to jump off this train now? Because it does feel like we got away with one here. We're like, you've had the full on betting experience, but I still think the public is going to undervalue them next week. I really do. They just, no one likes betting this team. And even during this game, it just felt like the whole time they're going to keep us in it. And yeah, now they're coming for us. I'm falling more and more in love with this Browns team. It's just a gross gritty team. So, Hopefully they have a bad number next week so we can avoid them. But yeah, really happy we got that covered because obviously we desperately need it after getting back to Miami and the Chargers game. So coming out of the 1 p.m. is going from 4-0 to 1-3 to 2-2. Sucks, but we'll take it.
00:21:47
Speaker 1: Well, look, Todd Munkin, I'm starting to love this guy. You know, 60-year-old. Is Todd Munkin the coach signet of the NFL? Because he takes no prisoners.
00:22:01
Speaker 2: The dude.
00:22:01
Speaker 1: He could have gone up six points, right? Late in the fourth quarter, he could have gone up six points. They were up, I forget what the score was, 21-18 or whatever. And there's a minute left. He can kick the easy field goal. They've got a fourth and one. He decides to go for it and leave time on the clock and give Bryce Young the ball back. And thank God the Browns defense, you said it this morning, the Browns defense, no matter who's playing for him, just plays better at home.
00:22:27
Speaker 2: Mason Graham today was amazing.
00:22:29
Speaker 3: Everywhere.
00:22:29
Speaker 1: Had a couple sacks. He was in the backfield the whole time. Really made the difference in that game. But Todd Munkin got this team to 2-1 with Deshaun Watson.
00:22:39
Speaker 2: God love him. You know who nobody loves?
00:22:41
Speaker 1: Including us, Los Angeles Chargers, because we had them as our brass balls trade of the week at 7.5. They lost the game by 8. Tom Brady said it best. This is just bad football. Exciting football, but bad football. Third and 10. Chargers need it for their lungs.
00:23:04
Speaker 2: 514 left. They're at the Bills' 45-yard line. They're losing.
00:23:10
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert finally gets a clean pocket, throws a great ball. Quentin Johnston, in his stomach, doesn't catch it with his hands, lets it get into his body, falls right between his elbows. As bad as the Bills were giving up the ball five freaking times, The Chargers offense was pathetic.
00:23:34
Speaker 2: Alert here for Josh Allen.
00:23:35
Speaker 1: Looking for Allen.
00:23:36
Speaker 3: He's got it.
00:23:41
Speaker 1: He's a winner.
00:23:42
Speaker 3: No, he's a player. He's a football player through and through.
00:23:46
Speaker 1: And there he goes.
00:23:47
Speaker 3: Josh Allen.
00:23:48
Speaker 2: Huge run. An excuse me touchdown.
00:23:52
Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone?
00:23:55
Speaker 1: Goodness.
00:23:56
Speaker 3: There's no fear.
00:23:57
Speaker 2: No way.
00:23:57
Speaker 3: He was big and strong in his life of flaming gold. Now I'm looking. It's in. A laser beam. Touchdown, Buffalo.
00:24:10
Speaker 1: And he's still gone.
00:24:13
Speaker 3: The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder. I'll just start with this stat, just to sum up this game. Because I had never seen anything like this in my entire life betting career. And I was like, this has never happened before. I know this has never happened. And I was wrong. Since 2013, teams with five plus turnovers. And so the other team has a minus four turnover margin or better. They are 3-81-1 straight up. So that's since 2013. So the three wins, the Bills over the Chargers today, the Jaguars over the Chargers in 2022, and the Broncos over the Chargers in 2015. Yeah, that's from our guy Evan Abrams. And it gets even worse, Chad. So they were a favorite of more than three points, the Bills. In the last 30 years, a team in this exact scenario. So they've had They have a losing turnover margin of four, and they're a favorite of more than three points. They are 0-108 against the spread in this exact spot. So this has never happened before. Our team has never covered what the Bills just did. So that just sums up our day. Should have easily had another winning three-and-two day, but that's what's so brutal. You can't let these ones hurt too much because it's just going to drive you insane. There is no reasoning behind it. We could kill Herbert, that costly pick he threw. Dicker, the kicker, missing that field goal, just being so stagnant offensively, letting Josh Allen where, and we joke, Josh Allen might have one or two truly bad games a year. And this is one of the worst ones he could ever possibly have to start. And they didn't take advantage. It was like 10-3, then 10-10. And it's just like, how are you not pulling away from this Bills team? So we've talked about it. I don't know what the Chargers can do. Their schedule only gets harder. This is a game that you steal this game, maybe it gives hardball the rest of the season, but they are 0-6 or 1-6 in seven weeks. I mean, how do you, as an ownership, keep running it back? So I can't believe that stat was real about the Chargers. I mean, it doesn't matter if the pieces change. It doesn't matter if it's Fulp Rivers, Herbert. It doesn't matter if the head coach is. It's the same old Chargers. It really is.
00:26:34
Speaker 1: Listen, I'm getting dragged in the comments right now, including by– The at sharper square handle, which is our producer, Matt Mitchell, for facetiously comparing Todd Munkin to Kurt Cignetti.
00:26:48
Speaker 3: I agree.
00:26:50
Speaker 2: It was a freaking joke. Do you remember how.
00:26:54
Speaker 3: Bad the Hoosiers were for the last hundred years?
00:26:57
Speaker 2: Does nobody understand tone of voice?
00:26:59
Speaker 1: We're freaking saying this out loud right now.
00:27:02
Speaker 2: It's not on email. It's not a text. It was a freaking joke.
00:27:06
Speaker 3: You said it serious. There was no wink and nod. So I'm glad you clarified it.
00:27:09
Speaker 1: I have a very dry delivery. You guys, we've been together for a long time. You guys should all know that. Hey, listen, Trevor Lawrence was amazing. Drake May, maybe we did our bottom five quarterback list. First career pick by Travis Hunter off of Drake May in the Jackson zone at the end of the first half. Touchdown could have made it 14-10. Field goal could have made it 14-6. He had a fumble where the ball just slipped out of his hand. In the past six games, he's got 15 turnovers.
00:27:39
Speaker 2: Just terrible. Trevor was ridiculous. Drake May was terrible.
00:27:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, that one hurt. A game, you know, should have been on.
00:27:46
Speaker 2: We loved it from the beginning.
00:27:48
Speaker 3: Stupid enough to talk ourselves out of it. Everything went exactly how we thought it would, right? That Jags defense is a good matchup against that Patriots offense. Well, that A.J. Brown, I mean, Matt Collins is his number one receiver. It's like impossible for Drake and Drake's just going to be getting killed by everybody right now because his fan base was so loud, which they should have been, right? Defending their guy. But you had people, unfortunately for them, in the media that was really hyping him up as well, where it's like anyone watched those playoff defenses said everyone's going to run the same exact defensive scheme against them next year. And we're through three weeks, and every defense is running the exact same thing. And without AJ, it only amplifies it. He just does not have that safety. So, you know, Drake may... Was he crying on the sideline today? I hope so. I hope that's a real video. I don't know what's AI anymore, but this, I think, is all good for Drake because he just was at the pinnacle last year. He was almost MVP, went to a Super Bowl. You just don't want him to be another Dan Marino, right? A guy that got there in year two and had a great career but never, ever came close ever again. I know it hurts right now, Patriots fans. You get the Bills next week, so it might not get any better. You might really be you know, one in three here, but if you steal that game, you beat the bills, you're two and two. You've, you've, you know, there is, there isn't, there is an outcome at the end of this, but right now the Patriots fans in my lives that I talk to, this is, I think this is the lowest they've been on Drake May in, you know, obviously over a year. Like they were so happy. So of course. And right now they're just like, is he, they're texting me. Is he ruined? It's like, he's not ruined. It's just, I feel like the coaching's failed him a little bit, but I also think that A.J. Brown, we have not talked enough about it, how big of a deal that was. Yeah, brutal miss by us. I was really pissed at myself and just us in general that we didn't have this one in there. It's you know a bad miss.
00:29:40
Speaker 1: Uh i am too it was chad's choice i should have pushed for it by the way i know how much you love the discord jag's money line was the winning vote getter for the grouper in the discord you can go join the discord at read the number.com you'd be winning some bets like the jag's money line Arizona and San Francisco, we both loved Arizona. We almost put it in instead of the Colts. They're down 23-6. But the Niners had so many injuries on the defensive line. And then all of a sudden, Dre Greenlaw went out with a little bit of an injury. And Trent Williams went out. And all of a sudden, the second half, this game exploded. And the Cardinals, we're going to start falling in love with the Cardinals because it felt like they had the ball the entire second half.
00:30:20
Speaker 2: They cut it to 23-20.
00:30:23
Speaker 1: The Niners score a junk touchdown when they, too, could have just run out the clock. And the Cardinals somehow, with a minute left, find a way to cover this game for us.
00:30:33
Speaker 2: So thank you to Mike LaFleur. We're loving your team. We're loving Jacoby Brissett. We're loving the way they play to the end of the game. Nice job, Arizona Cardinals.
00:30:43
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll quickly give Flowers a party. Pretty top three in MVP race right now. He had four touchdowns this game. Even when he struggled, like he had– Started the game, I think it was 11 for 11, and then he kind of dipped off a little bit. He only finished the game with 15 completions, but using his legs when he needed to, I mean, put up 36 points. Great, great game by him. Great game by Shanahan, but our questions about this 49ers defense is so real with all the injuries they've had. That no pass rush really burned them the second half, and now Mike Evans, when he missed some time, he's banged up as well.
00:31:14
Speaker 2: Yeah, he went out.
00:31:15
Speaker 3: Enjoy your 3-0, so take what you can if you're a 49ers fan.
00:31:21
Speaker 2: At Tricks 56 is saying that they have a question. So if you got it, put it in. I'm trying to read it as we go.
00:31:28
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell will try to catch it if it's a nice question.
00:31:31
Speaker 2: If you're going to be mean to us, I'm kidding. Hero of the week. See, kidding. It was a joke. I'm being dry.
00:31:38
Speaker 1: Simon, for me, it's Deshaun Watson. The guy had this team in a position to win. Then he let it slip away, getting booed, not being able to get the ball downfield. 4.86 yards per pass attempt. And at the end of the game, despite all the odds being against him, he fights Harold Fannin Jr. in the end zone. They win the game. Nice job, Deshaun Watson, leading the 2-1. Todd, Kurt Cignetti, Munkin, Browns.
00:32:12
Speaker 3: I was going to go with Kirk, but Lamar at the end of the game, how can you not give it to him? Like that seven seconds makes the throw. Steal a game down in Brazil. I mean, all-time type of win and all-time loss if you're a Cowboys fan. So it really feels like it's since my homes, and we've not had a situation like that. One play, downfield, kick a field goal, win a game. Really, really impressive.
00:32:33
Speaker 1: Atrix56 just wants to know if we can please discuss if the Raiders are for real. Dude, we just discussed it. We love the Raiders. We've been betting on the Raiders. We were disappointed we didn't put the Raiders into the contest. Simon has been on the Raiders basically every single week.
00:32:50
Speaker 3: Find out next week. They get the Chiefs. That's the test. You're 3-0 at home against the Chiefs.
00:32:56
Speaker 1: And they're four and a half point underdogs. I already put that on my list of leans.
00:33:01
Speaker 3: Raiders next four games. Chiefs at Patriots, at home against the Bills, at home against the LA Rams.
00:33:08
Speaker 2: Shame on you.
00:33:08
Speaker 1: I was going to go with Jeff Hatley for the call at midfield when you're down seven with six minutes left and you got three timeouts and you've been playing great for basically giving the game away to the Chiefs. But You got to go with Mike McDaniel and Justin Herbert. The red zone for the Chargers was so horrific. You just pointed out some great stats about how the Chargers are historically inept in certain situations. With the hype and the creativity around Mike McDaniel and all the conversation about how they were going to unleash Justin Herbert and all the stupid freaking videos, which by the way, you and I did not buy into with Mike McDaniel getting excited about his arm and looking like, a babe in the woods, I can't believe how talented this guy is, and Jim Harbaugh. They had one red zone drive that was just inside handoffs. They settled for a field goal, another one to start the second half after a Bills turnover in which they went from second and one at the goal line to third and long because of penalties. Everything is amiss with this offense. For a quarterback, everyone continues to say has generational arm talent. with an offensive coordinator that people keep saying is a creative genius and is in the exact right spot, and with a head coach who is now 0-3 for the first time in his career after going 0-2 for the first time in two and a half decades of coaching at any level, this team is a complete and total train wreck, dumpster fire. Shame on the Los Angeles Chargers. Shame on Justin Herbert. Shame on Mike McDaniel. Shame on Jim Harbaugh.
00:34:45
Speaker 3: Shame, shame, shame, shame, shame, shame on you. Shame on you, Todd Bowles. First NFL team, NFL coach in history to go straight 0-12 against the spread. Never has happened before in NFL history. They set a record today. Shame, shame, shame, shame on you. If that doesn't have you fire head coach, I don't know what else can. You're making history about how bad you are and how overrated you are in public opinion. Bucs 0-3, all falls on the head coach. Shame on you, Todd Bowles.
00:35:21
Speaker 2: All right, Simon, some early leans.
00:35:25
Speaker 1: I liked the Texans against the Cowboys at minus one and a half.
00:35:29
Speaker 2: It's already moved.
00:35:31
Speaker 1: Raiders plus four and a half versus Kansas City. They're at Las Vegas. We're going to want to bet on a home dog in the division. Patrick Mahomes, usually at three or more, historically a good side. Carolina plus three at home against Detroit. We're a Carolina Panthers podcast. I was reminded that if we're a Carolina Panthers podcast, why we bet against in the past two weeks, it's because they've been favorites. But this week they will be home underdogs. Those are three that stuck out to me. I'm also interested in the Eagles, but I kind of need to see everything play out. because they're playing the Rams next week, but right now they're home dogs, two and a half.
00:36:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of really baby lines. I mean, they open up Seahawks minus six and a half at home against the Chargers. I'll throw a little piece on that. Why not? You can get– I know it sounds like there's no such thing as free money, but, I mean, here we are. What I would say one of the better teams that just coming off a bad loss, Cincinnati is minus two and a half at home against the Jaguars. That's going to be public all over Jags. If you want to fade them, I get it. The Browns are plus three right now at home on Thursday night against Pittsburgh. That's another one that jumps out to me where it's like that's going to be all the public love is going to be on Pittsburgh mostly. A couple more early bets. Kind of don't know what to do with it. The Giants are minus two and a half against Arizona at home. It's just a tempting line. It's like you're getting under a field goal against an Arizona team that's obviously struggling. You already talked about it a little bit at the start of the show, but you can get Houston right now at minus two, minus two and a half at home against Dallas. I have to do it. They're 0-3. I know. I agree with everyone that's saying Dallas is the better team and they can attack this Houston defense. I agree, but that's just– So hard to pass on that at home in this exact scenario.
00:37:47
Speaker 1: All right. Two and three week crushing two and three week, but also exhilarating. And I feel, you know, a couple of bad bounces. I don't, it's not the kind of two and three week where I'm like losing sleep on this one. Like I have in the past or certainly like last week, you know, with our, with our dreadful week.
00:38:05
Speaker 2: So feeling pretty good. That is our show.
00:38:09
Speaker 1: We will be back on Tuesday with our week four betting preview. This has been Sharper Square presented by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharper Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday, love you.
00:38:32
Speaker 3: He has a sense of freshness and bravado, which men are always eager to feel and to which they often respond.
