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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. We are live from our tummy John Home Studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter, and also Simon.
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Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, It's mid March. What are we talking? We talk in baseball? We talking Premier League. What are we talking today?
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Speaker 3: Brother?
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Oh, you're a teaser. You know what we're talking about. It's the high holy week of the NFL off season.
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Speaker 4: Here at Action Network.
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Speaker 1: March Madness has arrived in the first run of the NCAA Tournament. Starts this Thursday with sixteen games and then sixteen more on Friday. It's a gambling extravaganza for college hoops fans all weekend long. March Madness always a warm spot in my heart, just because you know, my best selling book, The Odds was based entirely on tracking college basketball betters through the college basketball season. Today, we're going to get ready for all things betting for the big Dance to close today's show. Like we do during the NFL season, We've got our director of Research, Evan Abrams, who will deliver the last word with his favorite tournament betting trends. But right now, a man who I would have profiled in the odds if he had been alive back then. We welcome long time contributor to our Big Bets on Campus podcast, a college hoops fanatic, one third of the popular group three man Weave, the University of Missouri's finest Welcome to the show, Jim Root.
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Speaker 5: There we go, let's do it. How young do you think I am? Chad? You don't think I was a lot like.
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Speaker 4: I wanted to make you feel good.
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Speaker 5: Okay, I'll take it.
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Speaker 3: I'll think you.
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Speaker 1: No, you got so much grief before we came on the air, because you're from like a town outside Milwaukee that Matt Mitchell happens to know, and so he was excited to rip it. And so I just wanted to make you feel a little bit better. And you know, Deage, you a little bit.
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Speaker 5: Needed the good vibes. I appreciate that.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's been a busy, you know what, thirty six hours since the bracket dropped, But we're getting closer to the end of the tunnel of content and actually getting to games.
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Speaker 5: So ready to chop it up with you guys.
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Speaker 6: I feel like my takes are warmed up, they're sharpened, ready to really dig in here.
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Speaker 4: Well, you have no choice.
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Speaker 1: By the way, Jim will be joining us in Chicago for our live Elite eight show, which I'll share more details about in one moment. If you are listening this to this in Illinois, big news, folks, the favorite podcast presented by Bet three six five is now live in my home state of Illinois and the new Bet three sixty five. Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites to posit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
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Speaker 4: And more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
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Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois. Must be twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. As I mentioned, Jim will be joining us for our Elite eight March Madness Games event on Saturday, March twenty ninth at Joe's on Weed in the beautiful City of Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks, free life show with Stucky Jim RSVP. To reserve your spot, follow the link in this episode description or google favorite podcast event Chicago and our SVP. The site will pop right up. We're excited to have Jim on the show. Excited to have Jim and the three man Weave crew join us for the event in Chicago.
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Speaker 4: Jim, from your point of view, you have.
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Speaker 1: Been a college basketball betting expert for a very long time. I know deeply how connected you are both to betting and college basketball. Does this tournament feel especially top heavy?
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Speaker 5: Yes?
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Speaker 6: I typically am trying to find the underdogs I like most, and I'm setting up my final four with absolutely no more than two to one seeds. Who else can I get in the mix? To GetUp there, and I keep coming back to probably three one seed, and at that point I'm forcing somebody that's not a fourth one seed to get in there. These four teams are so good and analytically they've separated themselves. Whether you look at Ken, Palm, Bart, Torvik, wherever you want your predictive rankings to come from, they've separated there.
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Speaker 5: And even further down the bracket, it's top heavy.
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Speaker 6: I'll give a shout out to Will Warren. He's got a great website writing about college hoops. But the top like twenty five teams are better than a standard top twenty five, and so that means your four seeds, your five seeds. Perhaps that's going to lead to less upsets in that part of the bracket too.
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Speaker 5: I hope not. We want a little early chaos.
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Speaker 6: Would love to see that some March madness magic, but I think it's worth monitoring and potentially we do get some sort of chalk heavy bracket as we go through this big dance.
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Speaker 1: If you are putting in your the three top seeds to make it, I'm assuming it's Duke Florida, Auburn, Houston is out, or am I making an ass out of you and me.
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Speaker 5: Yeah, how dare you?
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Speaker 3: Chad?
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Speaker 5: No, I would have Houston in there.
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Speaker 6: Actually, I just mean there is some question around Jaywin Roberts's ankle, and they have got definitely the hardest eight nine draw. With Gonzaga waiting there in the second round, I think all the math will tell you that's a really, really tough game for him. The one I don't have right now, I don't should I spot spoil.
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Speaker 5: My final four is that am I allowed to.
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Speaker 4: Do whatever you want? Man, free flowing show, do whatever you need to do.
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Speaker 6: The one I don't have is Florida, And that hurts me because every time I watch them, I just can't stop like professing how good they are. But they've become such a darling. Everybody's picking them in the title, like ESPN every show. Right after they're like, well it's got.
00:06:41
Speaker 5: To be Florida.
00:06:42
Speaker 6: They just won the SEC why can't they win the national title? I have some questions there. I mean, they've got great depth, but they if their three guards aren't making shots, the perimeter can get a little bit dicey. I've seen them get punked early in games a couple of times. Georgia did it to him. My Missouri Tigers did it to him in Gainesville, and then Todd Golden's never won a tournament game, and that's not like an eliminator. It's not impossible to go win the tournament, but you'd like to have one under your belt before you have to go win six, including two on the biggest stage. So Florida is the one I'm barely leaving out. You could probably leave Auburn out given the way their performance has been lately. I just don't really like anybody else in that region, so I kind of end up defaulting to the Tigers there, and then Duke's just kind of otherworldly right now, as long as flag is healthy.
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Speaker 1: You didn't give us your final four, though, because you gave us three of the number one, and so now that was good. Like we're going to foreshadow and tease for a little bit later in the show, Simon.
00:07:44
Speaker 4: Before we came on.
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Speaker 1: Earlier today, you were dropping hints about amongst your professional gambling group chat like teams that were starting to get talked about.
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Speaker 5: Can you share, Yeah, it's I would say, just from the top.
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Speaker 2: The group I talk to are the guys I followed for college basketball, are old, like average age seventy two, like legit old dudes, and they are very about that Big East action. They love the Big East like that is, even though it's not what it used to be. They're always biased towards it, and you know, obviously it's worked out for him, right The Yukon has just been an incredible run. That was a team they were biased to. This year, it really is Saint John's and I would love to get your perspective of it where everyone's talking Duke Florida. These guys love not only the way that Saint John's playing, but the fact of their coach has been there before with multiple different programs and has done it before. Is that a team that is no longer a sleeper because they're so talked about but loved bhite people. Are they still, as you view as a better a team that not enough people are giving respect to because you know, Saint John's is being painted as having a really tough road to getting to the finals.
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Speaker 4: He's also the same age as all the people in that group.
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Speaker 6: Text exactly, No, I'm a buyer of Saint John's. I think that region is so loaded. It's probably my favorite, well, well maybe not my favorite one.
00:09:10
Speaker 5: But it's my.
00:09:10
Speaker 6: Favorite two, it's my favorite three, probably my favorite four of all those seed lines, So that makes it really tough to pick. But Saint John's they you just know they're never going to lay an egg, like you're getting an A plus effort from them. Patino is such a great motivator. The defense is absurd, the floor is really high, Like, I don't think this team is remotely prone to an upset because you're just you're not gonna get a stinker on that end, and you have the ceiling outcomes where if they make shots like that, that's the variance for them is if they actually have a game where the threes go in, they're gonna look incredible. They're just so good at everything else, like the turnover margin, the rebounding margin.
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Speaker 5: They win those.
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Speaker 6: They stress you on the perimeter more than you're typically used to because they've got size and athleticism and they're physical. It's kind of a handsy Patino approach on the perimeter. I'm sure those big East guys love seeing that. I think they're just they' high floor. And then you get them in the sweet sixteen against whether it's Texas Tech or whoever. And then Florida and they lead eight. If they make seven or eight threes, this team is unbeatable. So I totally buy them as though.
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Speaker 5: So did you throw a little bet on twenty five to one to win the title? Yeah? Yeah, I don't mind that.
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Speaker 6: I mean it's analytically they haven't performed that well, like the fact that they're not inside the top ten at Ken Palm's a little surprising given their record, But I think part of that is they didn't smack teams in the in the non conference the way maybe they would have hoped to, Like, they didn't beat teams by forty they were winning by twenty five instead, And at that point that's kind of a diminishing returns.
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Speaker 5: From me in terms of predictive value with big teams. So I buy that.
00:10:42
Speaker 1: You know, you just mentioned Saint John's. I feel like it looks like they're the last two seed on the two line right and now they've got to travel cross country to go play in a game. Do you think they would have been better off being the first three seed and getting to go play in New Jersey?
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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they would have adored being in Newark, even if it's Duke they're playing there. All the one seeds are good, so there's not like a big downgrade there, and the crowd they would have going Providence Newark. Everybody talked about it last year with Yukon not having to get on a flight, Like if you're just bussing everywhere you need to go from New York, there is an advantage in that, and I think just with the crowd and with the travel ease, they probably would have preferred that. I always think it would be fun if the selection committee released one through sixty eight and every team got to pick their spot in order, you know, like if they would have said, well, yeah, we'll take the three in the East over the two out west and kind of let the chips fall where they may.
00:11:45
Speaker 1: Isn't an amazing how Patino does it everywhere he goes. Within moments he's got this team turned around, and moments to me is a season or two right where it doesn't matter what the school has been, He's always done it. As a guy who watches so much college basketball, Jim, what have you seen from Patino?
00:12:05
Speaker 4: The way he coaches?
00:12:06
Speaker 1: You mentioned the way he motivates that it just isn't replicable from other coaches that only he can execute on these quick tonearounds.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, the way he coaches effort is really stunning to me. I mean, the guys play their tails off, and there's a few other coaches that I think do it relatively consistently, Like Buzz Williams has this Shaka smart kind of has it the way the guys played defensively, but then he pairs it with like really smart offensive basketball and they can't shoot, but they know it, like they're fairly self aware, and they get good shots and like, all right, what are we actually good at. Let's not lean into a weakness, Let's really dig into a strength. And I don't think other coaches necessarily have that. And then just there's some intrinsic parts of it too, of like instilling confidence, letting guys like really go and be who they are as players. I think other times, when maybe a guy transfers from one coach to another, he's not sure where his role is gonna fall, how he should play within a new system. And it seems like Patino just gets these guys comfortable immediately, and that's hard to do, especially he brought in some guys with high usage rates at previous schools.
00:13:16
Speaker 5: Davon Smith, Kadia, Richmond.
00:13:18
Speaker 6: They've taken less shots this year, used less possessions and still still seem very comfortable and winning helps. But you know, it's kind of a what came first, the chicken or the egg there.
00:13:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. Kyla Parti too.
00:13:31
Speaker 1: When he was recruiting at Kentucky, he would always talk about and you would always hear the players talk about He's not promised me a starting gig. He's not promising me high usage rates. He's just telling me of how he is going to use me and making me feel good. And I like seeing like these old head coaches who have become so adept at changing the way they coach and communicating with players and then succeeding. I mean, look Arkansas too, Kyla Parti's taking a team of the tournament again. It would be a dream to get Kyla Pari and Rit Patino, you know, a throwback to nineties college basketball, early two thousands college basketball royalty going at each other again.
00:14:20
Speaker 4: I think I haven't asked you a question yet.
00:14:23
Speaker 1: I think both of these guys, I'm just pontificating, you know, because it's because it's what I want to do right now. All means I think these guys are tailor made for this social media age.
00:14:35
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:14:35
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's some coaches that have seen the changing of the tides and have been like, I don't want to be a part of this version. And those two have adapted so smoothly. I mean I used to always call Cali Pari like the car salesman, Like he can kind of figure out the pitch to anybody, and even as generations change, he can scale that pitch to whoever he needs too.
00:15:01
Speaker 5: He's a good talker, that's for sure.
00:15:03
Speaker 6: And Patino clearly has that gear too, and that helps with recruiting, It helps with motivating, it helps with game planning. I have been very impressed, and yeah, it would be funny to see Kentucky Louisville rivalry reborn with those coaches, only it's Saint John's Arkansas instead. They're different shades of red in that one.
00:15:22
Speaker 1: I think I think calling the car salesman diminishes his skill because that feels like a pejorative.
00:15:28
Speaker 5: That's true, that's true.
00:15:29
Speaker 4: He's guys.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: You put them on social media like Patino this year the locker room, the way those clips have come out, that has been glorious. Those are perfect recruiting tools to get new players coming in. Simon, you're shaking your head. I feel like you've fallen in love with Patino this year.
00:15:49
Speaker 7: I have.
00:15:50
Speaker 2: And this is someone that legitily hated this guy, Like, you know, yeah, he rubbed me the wrong way, brother, Like his whole thing of being like, I'm the shit, You're all idiots. You know, obviously we know what he did off the court. I don't really hold that against It was more about his person on the court. Now I've come full three to six round. I'm like, oh, talk your shit, Brick, like you're that dude, you're running the show. And the fact that he's turned Saint John's around. I mean, I don't think in my lifetime, Chad, I don't think they were good in my lifetime. Like that was all before my really coming into college basketball. Then being relevant and especially being the Northeast, you always hear about them and they should be able to recruit. They're the team of New York. All this nonsense never mattered. And they bring him the right coach and he turns on around. That's why we love I mean, you're talking about, you know, coaches going to different places like it's It's one of my favorite parts off college basketball is how important the head coach is because it is just five starters, right, and you get the right guy in there. He brings in the right talent and he could change everything. And you know you're talking Calipari. I think anyone can remember, right, New Hampshire was that what the school was a turn around? And then with mass UMass and then went to Memphis, and it's like these schools that are irrelevant you never hear about. That's what great coaches can do, right, They can go there and make them somebody. So yeah, I know this is becoming a heavy Saint John's podcast, but it's like every professional better I've talked to in the last three or four days, they just keep bringing them up and they just keep saying like this is the exact type of team and guy that pulls off a run on us in a year where I don't know if you have the same view of it, Jim, but it really is no one. There is no guarantee like we've had Yukon the last two years being the kind of guaranteed team.
00:17:32
Speaker 5: This year, it really is pick or poison.
00:17:34
Speaker 2: Like everyone's gonna look like an idiot and someone's gonna look like they're really smart the end of it, because it is all so many random teams. Is there really a team that you know to you person that's jumping out to no one's talking about or is it kind of like you just said, is it the four or five really good teams and the rest are kind of trailing.
00:17:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's that's more what it's been. It's basically like we have four Yukon's this year. Like if you kind of had really elite competition last year, maybe they would have run into some some trouble in the final four and Zach Edy tried, but you know that perduc team just wasn't quite on their level. I'd see, like if we get a Florida versus Duke final or Houston versus Duke semifinal, like that could go in any direction, just clash of the Titans kind of thing. Further down like the twos and three seeds, maybe somebody can win, Like we got Tennessee just knocked off Auburn on a neutral court. Okay, maybe Auburn's a little bit vulnerable. Florida lost at Georgia, lost at.
00:18:26
Speaker 5: Home in the Missouri.
00:18:27
Speaker 6: Like, these teams aren't invincible, but I think when you know, push comes to shove on the biggest stage, we're going to see them at their best, their best versions. And I would be pretty surprised if any of those four one seeds went down before Sweet sixteen, and even Elite eight I think would surprise me a little bit.
00:18:42
Speaker 1: So we just talked a lot about Saint John's, but also in that region Gonzaga, Georgia and you talked about earlier in the show. Saint John's is not a team that any of their predictive analytics sort of what the selection committee is looking at to make decisions, we're anywhere near the Gonzaga. Nearly all of their predictive analytics were in the top ten. They just didn't have a lot of good wins. We're talking about Thursday games. Is Gonzaga a team that could be one of your favorite picks for Thursday? If not, who are your favorite picks for Thursday?
00:19:22
Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's kind of odd.
00:19:23
Speaker 6: I actually lean towards Georgia there, despite as good as Gonzaga has been and Georgia on the spread, I will advance Gonzaga, but that spreads around a touchdown that's.
00:19:33
Speaker 5: A little too much.
00:19:34
Speaker 6: George's played a similar kind of copy of Gonzaga, like Florida is somewhat modeled after the Gonzaga approach of two bigs, play up and down, really bludging the rim. And Georgia got up by twenty five against Florida. Now they let them all the way back in had to win in the final minute, But I still think it's representative of what they can do against that kind of approach, and they've got a ton of physicality. They've got like six different bigs they can rotate against Ek and Gonzaga's front line. So leaning away from there, Memphis is one of my favorite first round that's they are an underdog in a five to twelve game as the five seed, that's going to catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing for me there is Memphis is poor in predictive analytics because they're terrible against bad teams. Like they are the opposite of a computer trigger, where when they play somebody they're a twenty point favorite against, they win by seven, and when they're a thirty point favorite, they win by seven again. Like they just don't really blow teams out. But if you put a team across from them that they view as their equal and top twenty five, top fifty ish competition. That's when gozer, that's when Memphis shines. And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe it'll chip on the shoulder like we're underdogs against the twelve seed. After all we did in the non conference, they played one of the best schedules of anybody in the entire country, flew all over the country, so I'm not worried about them going all the way across to Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker.
00:20:57
Speaker 5: Room and you get a Memphis win there in the first round.
00:21:00
Speaker 1: Well, look, Memphis, a lot of people would argue, especially because of their injury issues, probably shouldn't be higher than an eight seed, and so the five seed is a little bit of a surprise.
00:21:10
Speaker 4: Also, I like that you're.
00:21:11
Speaker 1: Picking Memphis because that is the twelve to five matchup that, if I had to bet, was going to be the one where the majority of bracketeers.
00:21:21
Speaker 4: Aren't choosing the twelve.
00:21:23
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it wouldn't mathematically make sense for them to do it. Like I couldn't hold it against anybody to say, look, Colorado States favorite, Why wouldn't I try to get some upset points if my pool has it? But yeah, I just I think the way, you know, the stat that I keep going back to for that game is if you filter Bart Torovik's website for games just against top fifty opponents, Memphis is twenty fifth and Colorado State's one hundredth, and they're both playing a top fifty opponent here, and yet the team that's way way lower in that kind of a stratosphere of games is the favorite. Yeah, I'll at least take the points there, and again I think Memphis wins out right.
00:22:00
Speaker 4: Who else are you eyeing for Thursday?
00:22:03
Speaker 6: Some of my stronger leans here are totals, So can I go in that direction?
00:22:09
Speaker 4: We accept those, right, it's a betting podcast.
00:22:12
Speaker 1: We're not interested in just sort of the bad bets that you can parlay into your favorite team. We want the best bets with the best edges, no matter the market.
00:22:22
Speaker 6: Beautiful, I can do that, Okay, two totals I like quite a bit, high Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty three and a half. I thought the market would kind of jump on this one. The tempos the question mark is it going to be fast enough, But I think the efficiency is going to be ridiculous in this game. I don't really see how either team gets to stop. The problem that High Point had in their rare games where they did have issues was a really dominant ball screen point guard operator that's comfortable in the mid range against their drop coverage. And Braden Smith's probably the best point guard in that system in the entire country. I think he'll light them up both as a scorer and passer. But then the other end, High Point top twenty five offense, they get downhill, they've got guys that can get to the rim, They've got a great offensive rebounder in Bodo Bodo in the paint, and Perdue's rim defense is non existent, like one of the worst in the country despite being a Big ten team.
00:23:16
Speaker 5: They don't have any shot blocking.
00:23:18
Speaker 6: I think that's going to be a real problem and you just see points back and forth. The other big total. I like Clemson and McNeice the under in that one, and this one is really tempo based, where I think both will slow each other down. They kind of press to slow the game down, Like Clemson doesn't even try to get steals in their press.
00:23:36
Speaker 5: They're just like.
00:23:37
Speaker 6: Making you use the shot clock, get far down into it and have to take a tough one with five or ten seconds on the clock.
00:23:44
Speaker 5: And if you extrapolate that over the course of a.
00:23:48
Speaker 6: Game where both teams are doing that to each other, I think the possession count comes in way under what's projected here in one hundred and thirty four and a half one hundred and thirty four.
00:23:55
Speaker 5: I've taken quite a bit of that as well.
00:23:58
Speaker 4: Do you have any picks, games, sides.
00:24:03
Speaker 1: Totals that you love for Friday, Because don't forget, we're doing this Tuesday. People get forty eight hours to sort of digest, so Friday's includers here.
00:24:12
Speaker 4: Nothing has happened yet.
00:24:14
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:24:15
Speaker 6: I don't even think I was doing that intentionally, going with a bunch of Thursday games there. But the more I've investigated the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt game, I end up leaning more and more towards the Gales. I just think they are so good at making games their style, and this is a really big clash of styles. Vanderbilt wants to run, they want to press, they want to get up and down. And Saint Mary's like they see Gonzaga three times a year and they makeing Zaga play in the mud. They slog it up, and I think Randy Bennett can do that to Vanderbilt. Vandy played Drake early in the year, which is a somewhat comparable team where they want to play super duper slow, and although Vandy force twenty turnovers, Drake still won that game by ten because they dominated the glass. I think Saint Mary's can do that. So I laid some three and a half. I think it's more four in the market now, but I think that's an okay price as well Saint Mary's. And let's see one other Friday bet.
00:25:09
Speaker 5: How about Oklahoma.
00:25:11
Speaker 6: I think Yukon's maybe gotten a little overvalued in the market just because of how good they've been in the tournament the last two years, the name value of Danny Hurley. But these two teams are like coin flip and every analytical ranking. So you're gonna give me four and a half points, and I think Oklahoma's got pretty easy ways to score, getting downhill off the dribble. Yukon fouls a ton. Oklahoma gets to the free throw line. I think they're going to live the line, gets some easy points, and Oklahoma has not lost a game to a non conference opponent. They're like six and one on neutral floors against really good teams. Their only loss was to Kentucky by one in the SEC Tournament on the buzzer beater. I think they're at the very least in that game and could knock off Yukon.
00:25:53
Speaker 1: We still haven't gotten your third Final four. I do want to do that after this, Simon. Back in nineteen seventy seven, Milwaukee's own Marquette University was the toast of college basketball, winning the NCAA Championship under the leadership of charismatic head coach Al McGuire. It was this week forty eight years ago that McGuire got asked if he'd be wearing a luxury jacket on the sidelines for the tournament, to which McGuire responded, absolutely, You got to wear the blue blazer when you go to the Big Dance, And just like that, this beloved tournament became known as the Big Dance. Coach McGuire knew the importance of looking his best and understood that when you're comfortable, you perform at your best. Just like our beloved sponsor Tommy John. Go from first round upset to diaper Dandy at Tommy john dot com slash favorites and punch your ticket to the big dance of high performance and casual essentials. And with a special sale for our listeners, cutting down the nets in flexible, breathable comfort just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing Tommy John in twenty twenty five?
00:27:03
Speaker 5: Because comfort is king?
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00:27:22
Speaker 5: Who's the first play you think of? Chowne here, Marquette? Is it d Wade? Jimmy Butler?
00:27:27
Speaker 4: It's definitely d Wade.
00:27:28
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm an old head, so like when I think about Marquette, I do think about al McGuire because my sort of seminal moments of college basketball were al McGuire and dick Enberg doing Saturday afternoon games on NBC and so you know, don't forget Al McGuire basically retired after that seventy seven championship and became the original Dick ev.
00:27:54
Speaker 4: He was amazing as a broadcaster.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: So I actually tend to think of Al McGuire when I think of Marquette University.
00:28:02
Speaker 5: I was so glad I am bias.
00:28:05
Speaker 2: I think the best era was that two thousands twenty ten era. So for me, Travis Deaner, man, that's that's my guy from Marquette, Like, I missed those days of having guys like him that are there forever huge personality scrappy. I definitely missed that era of Marquette.
00:28:22
Speaker 4: Jim So I'm Milwaukee guy, who do you think that from Marquette?
00:28:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's probably Wade.
00:28:27
Speaker 6: I remember where I was when he went for the triple double to beat Kentucky to go to the Final four, So that that.
00:28:33
Speaker 5: Has stuck with me.
00:28:34
Speaker 6: But Deaner's a great a great name pull too. I mean he was on that team and stuck around and they were just they won that the TBT, the basketball tournament that happens in this summer, and Deaner hit a buzzer beater or late game winner in that when he was still one of the old heads on the team, and it was great to see him back out there with a bunch of guys ten years younger and still contributing.
00:28:56
Speaker 1: I also would like to say that when d Wade had that run in the tournament, I was covering the tournament in San Antonio for ESPN and I went out. I finished my story, and like a lot of times when you're writing some of these things, you pre write the stories because the deadlines are so tight that you kind of got a tournament early and hope that they come close to what your narrative is. So I turned in my story and probably needed, like you know, if things went right, needed to change a couple hundred words. It wasn't about Marquette. It was about the games I was covering in San Antonio. I went out that night and got so drunk with a friend of the podcast Seth Wickersham and current ESPN College basketball or college football writer Pete Famil, who was not at ESPN at the time. I couldn't function the next day, Like I couldn't get out of bed.
00:29:58
Speaker 4: I was puke everywhere.
00:30:01
Speaker 1: I stood in the shower for like twenty five minutes hoping everything would clear up, and then I got a call from my editor. I needed to rewrite the whole freaking story and I could not. I could not even see straight. So whenever I think about d Wade in that final four run, I think about covering the NCAA tournament in San Antonio.
00:30:21
Speaker 5: How he ruined your life for a day, everything got ruined. That's a nightmare, fucking terrible.
00:30:32
Speaker 4: Sam, And I don't know if you wanted to ask a question. If not, I'll.
00:30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got the one I can't believe and asked yet give me the underdogs?
00:30:38
Speaker 5: You like outright either Thursday, Friday, whatever?
00:30:41
Speaker 8: You got first one you see San Diego, And I know this isn't you know, a crazy one with the trendy and it's only plus two and a half, so we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here.
00:30:51
Speaker 6: But I just I love this team all season and I like the matchup. They mix in a bunch of z own which is going to keep the Michigan seven foot away from the rim a little bit. Maybe you get beat up on the offensive glass, but I think first shot defense will be pretty good there, and they're they're gonna force they could force twenty turnovers in this game. Michigan is really sloppy with the ball. The turnover rate defensively for u C. San Diego super high. They've got the guy Hayden Gray that leads the country and steal rate so easy buckets going the other way. And then Neewa Tate Jones their their conference player of the year point guard, kind of six to six jumbo point guard, New Zealander. He gets a lot of headlines and he should. He'll be a very fun guy to watch here. But they got a shooter named Tyler mcguy that is like almost goal Ky esque in his like total indiscriminate bombing like he will. His name's my guy, Yes, Tyler mcguy. I love it looks like McGee, but yeah, pronounced mc guy.
00:31:46
Speaker 4: He's now Tyler Simon's guy.
00:31:48
Speaker 5: Is my guy?
00:31:48
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, my guy, my guy. It's just a it's a fantastic nickname to go with. But yeah, he'll take twelve or fifteen threes if they let him really quick release. And if he hits six or seven, maybe he won't hit ten like Goalkie, but he hit six or seven against the reigning Big Ten Tournament champion. I think people are going to take a little bit of notice. So you see San Diego is won there for sure, and then right next to them in the bracket.
00:32:13
Speaker 5: I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's brutal for.
00:32:18
Speaker 6: Them with having played Sunday and then they have to go and play at altitude on Thursday in Denver. I don't love that, But the matchup with Texas A and M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A and M's huge strength, getting all over the offensive glass. They try to win the extras, win the possession battle, and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive rebounding team. They have not seen anyone quite like Texas A and M. But I think back to nine years ago when Yale beat Baylor in the first round. They still got the same coach. They were somewhat shorter in the front court, but they were physical and they kept an awesome offensive rebounding team in Baylor at Bay. I mean, they didn't, you know, shut him down in that area, but they were able to handle them and then they won out right.
00:32:58
Speaker 5: I think they can do the same thing too to Texas A and M.
00:33:01
Speaker 6: Here Texas A and M's guards will take a bunch of bad shots, they'll chuck, and Yale takes better shots and has better shooters, so I'll ride with Yale.
00:33:09
Speaker 1: There got a local West Hartford kid on the Yale basketball team this year. Jim, I kind of feel like you just mentioned Michigan and U see San Diego. I feel like Michigan got fucked, Like how are they a five seed the way they ran through the tournament? And not only a five seed, but they're the last team playing on Sunday and now they've got to travel cross country play a late Thursday game. Even if you think they're prime for an upset, because they've got some weaknesses, they're not a perfect team being a five seed. When you beat Wisconsin twice and Wisconsin's a three seed, do you feel like that was a fair seeding by the selection committee?
00:33:54
Speaker 5: Not really.
00:33:55
Speaker 6: The one part of it is just like you go in knowing they don't care about the Big Ten tournament game. It's like their pencils down feed up having a cocktail for completing the bracket already, and that's unfortunate. It sucks for Michigan because they clearly earned a higher spot by winning that game.
00:34:12
Speaker 5: But it's unfortunately what happened.
00:34:14
Speaker 6: And really I thought the committee did a bad job with this entire Denver site. Like you've got a ton of teams that played on Sunday that have to go to altitude, and like VCU played Sunday, they have to go to play BYU, who's an altitude comfortable team. Wisconsin played Sunday, has to go play Montana, who plays in an altitude conference on short rest, Like they really gave some teams some tough draws. And part of that is it's dumb at this point to have two Western sites when none of the Western teams are good, so you get end up shipping a bunch of Eastern teams out there in the first round. But I thought they did an especially bad job just kind of fumbling the bag with where they put those teams.
00:34:52
Speaker 1: They did an especially bad job with the tournament overall. Like it's been a controversy since the second you know, North Carolina got in, but a lot of seating, a lot of the games, a lot of the potential matchups. It's kind of awful. I feel disgusted by all of it. We're gonna have Evan on in a minute and He's got a great stat. Last year, teams that received more than half the spread bets went sixty eight percent against the spread. That's an ROI of over thirty percent. The previous eighteen tournaments, teams that are with that public had gone under the public teams had gone under forty eight percent against the spread. Have recent changes to college basketball made chalk success more inevitable? We talk like this is a very top heavy tournament, Like do you see the market catching up this year or is it going to continue to be the way it was last year.
00:35:53
Speaker 6: I would hope and expect the market catches up a little bit and makes some of the underdogs a little more viable.
00:36:00
Speaker 5: But there's a chance.
00:36:01
Speaker 6: And with the you know I mentioned earlier the strength of the top twenty five or so teams, that part of that is the shifting of the sport with the portal, and you know, the best man major players can immediately go beyond a better team and get a bag. And of course there are guys that transfer down and there are stars in that area as well. At Colorado State's best players from Colorado, like he transferred down there and he's an All American caliber guy. But those are going to be fewer and far between compared to the internal development that mid majors often we're able to do. So I worry that maybe there will be fewer upsets going forward. It does help this year that we got a lot of the best teams won their mid major conference tournaments. That gives me hope for the strength of the twelves and thirteens and fourteen seeds. But man, yeah, it does feel like there is starting to be a shift a little more clo closer and closer where.
00:36:54
Speaker 5: The talent is is on those top teams.
00:36:57
Speaker 6: Maybe maybe this is being the last year of the COVID year will help where the you know, all those fifth year veterans going up to a power conference team won't be there anymore.
00:37:06
Speaker 5: But that could still be the case this year.
00:37:09
Speaker 6: With that that's sixty eight percent stat I hope that's not the case. Come on, don't let the public feast that much.
00:37:14
Speaker 1: Well, look related to that, who are the money line favorites that you can't see losing the first two days early?
00:37:20
Speaker 6: Like I don't think Akron has a chance against Arizona. Like the style is a problem. They want to run, they want to get up and down and Arizona is like, good, let's do this. That sounds great to us. They played Sanford early in the year. That's also a team that wants to run. They won by thirty. That's not an exact matchup, exact similar comparison, but I think that's that's part of it. And in Michigan State Bryant, I know it's like fifteen points, but that one would stun me. And Brian's entire like identity is being bigger and more athletic than their mid major brethren. They got a bunch of down transfers, and then you go against a huge, physical Michigan State team that can just like match and exceed everything Bryant brings to the table that worries me. Matt Cox said it best on our podcast. He's like to pull out some of these upsets. I think you got to be different. You can't be better at what the team does across from you. And both of those are matchups where they're like a similar style, not quite a clone, but of the favorite and the favorites just better at their game.
00:38:19
Speaker 5: If you're in a survivor pool, who are you going with first?
00:38:22
Speaker 6: Arizona's probably one think they might struggle against Oregon in that next round. Oregon's just a tricky tournament team and then boom, you run into Duke, so you're not going to need to hang on to Arizona for a while. Oregon could be one again with Duke lurking right there. Kentucky, I think would be a good one. Troy could be a somewhat tough matchup because they're athletic, but Kentucky got Lamont Butler in there, and their draw is kind of tricky. I think the second round matchup, whether it's Illinois, Texas or Xavier, is tricky, So Kentucky's probably a good one to go with early. I think they can lose to anyone except Troy and just get him to the first round and then you can throw them out of your survivor pool.
00:38:57
Speaker 1: All right, Secon, We're we're gonna get to Gym's final team in his final four, and we'll bring in Evan. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about edge boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the edge boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash bot cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing.
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00:40:16
Speaker 4: It's all right.
00:40:16
Speaker 1: We've talked about Auburn, We've talked about Duke, We've talked about Houston. That is seventy five percent of your final four. Jim, we can't keep the people hanging any longer finish it off.
00:40:30
Speaker 6: Yeah, I said this was the West was my favorite, two, Saint John's my favorite, three, Texas Tech my favorite.
00:40:35
Speaker 5: Four Maryland. I'm going with Texas Tech.
00:40:38
Speaker 6: And maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I picked them to the final four in the preseason when they were like barely a top twenty five team, and now they're sitting here seventh and ken pound. I'm like, why would I turn my back on myself on past jim at this point considering how good they've been.
00:40:53
Speaker 5: The concern is the.
00:40:54
Speaker 6: Injury stuff, the nagging injuries for Darien Williams, Chance McMillan, two guys that sat up in the Big twelve tournament. I think they're going to be close enough to full strength this first weekend and hopefully by the second weekend when they would play a Saint John's or potentially a Florida. I think they'll be closer to one hundred percent by then. And I just like the coach here, kranp mcchasm's one everywhere he's been. I like the versatility the lineup. They can play big, they can play small, they can foll out the court with shooting, they can put a defense first lineup out there. I think they've got a lot of different ways to win. And when you're playing Florida and Saint John's back to back, two very different teams, I think you've got to be that kind of a chameleon. And I believe Texas Tech can get it done and be the one non one seed in my final four.
00:41:38
Speaker 1: Don't turn your back on past, Jim. That would be like turning your back on your roots.
00:41:44
Speaker 5: Oh there he is there. You get it, Yeah, you get it?
00:41:48
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Oh God, even Simon laughs.
00:41:51
Speaker 1: Simon a lot of times when I, you know, indulge myself with these terrible, bad jokes, I'm I'm looking at the script and so I don't see everyone's faces. But this time I wanted to see everyone's faces when I said it. Because Simon oftentimes does not laugh. He just sort of crinkles his eyes a little bit, and so I don't know if he's responding.
00:42:15
Speaker 4: This time he chuckled a little bit.
00:42:16
Speaker 5: And that got to be good. Brother. I'm tough. God, be actually good for me to laugh.
00:42:20
Speaker 2: I can't fake it anymore with you.
00:42:24
Speaker 5: Six seven years in.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: Wow, you know I was gonna say something but weave it at that. All right, let's bring in director of Research, Evan Abrams. He's gonna give us the last word with some betting trends to know this weekend.
00:42:42
Speaker 4: Evan, so glad to have you back.
00:42:44
Speaker 7: Well, what's up, guys, it's up, Jim. I got a bunch of stuff here. Yeah, I got a bunch of stuff here. So I'm gonna roll through it. Stop me down when you want me to. But just a bunch of different information. We're gonna start with free throws. A video just went out on Action Network kind of about the same concepts, so check it out there for more info. But basically, teams who hit at least seventy five percent from the free throw line cash at a fifty five percent rate, ats about six percent return on investment.
00:43:11
Speaker 3: Basically, you rise raise that.
00:43:13
Speaker 7: Free throw percentage for a team to seventy six percent, the ROI goes up to thirteen percent, and it's seventy seven percent. It's actually over twenty percent eighty seven fifty two to two ATS, and the NCAA tournament is two thousand and six. Hitch your free throw as you tend to cover the two teams. I think you probably want to highlight Wisconsin. They lead the nation almost eighty three percent. That's actually the second best free throw percentage almost ever for a tournament team. Villanova twenty twenty two made it to the final four. And I think the other one worth noting is Gonzaga at about eighty percent, second best free throw rate for an eight seed or higher, behind only twenty twenty one or Robert two as a fifteen seed actually upset the two in the seven so pretty decent category there. The other teams to potentially look for Lipscomb good from free throw Arizona, Michigan State, and Colorado State. So just an interesting trend to kind of talk about and kind of works year to year as well, So let me keep rolling here. Every year people kind of talk about betting blindly on these underdogs, kind of having a little fun. Well, it's actually worked lately, so round to sixty four blindly betting eleven seeds or higher on the money line has turned a profit each of the last four tournaments, and since twenty twelve, one hundred dollars better almost three hundred games would be up about seventeen percent return on investment, almost forty eight hundred bucks profiting in eight of the twelve years. So some people out there like to put ten bucks, twenty bucks, whatever it is on all of these underdogs en route.
00:44:41
Speaker 3: It's actually worked lately, which is fun. And this one is well.
00:44:45
Speaker 1: Us that you just told us that last year was such a chocky no, but.
00:44:52
Speaker 7: Just completely betting money lines because a lot of these big upsets tend to probably cover most of the other teams see your rout and like a ten to one, a twelve to one, which has actually hit lately, you know, especially when these six teams are beating one. So to me, that's probably what's done at the last few years, but nonetheless pretty crazy. And this one, this one's directly for you, Chad, since we talked about that for NFL. In terms of betting like the favorites and during the season, well, dating back to nineteen ninety, we've only seen two teams win the title having odds at twenty five to one are higher entering the tournament. They were both Connecticut in twenty eleven twenty five to one and twenty fourteen at one hundred to one. So since Yukon in twenty fourteen, every champion has had has been under twenty to one during the tournament.
00:45:38
Speaker 3: So right now, that.
00:45:39
Speaker 7: Would only be six teams Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee. So obviously could get bucked, but those are the six teams right now that would work over the last decade of tournaments.
00:45:51
Speaker 3: So we will see.
00:45:53
Speaker 1: I thought when you said, I thought, when you said this is just for me, you were gonna resance like the nineteen seventy nine De Paul Blue Demons. We're number one in the country heading into the tournament, and yet they lost to who in March madness. That's that's what I thought you were going to say.
00:46:15
Speaker 7: Unfortunately wasn't an al Maguire stat, but we'll have to move on from there. This one is actually I actually looked up while you guys are talking about Saint John's and I had seen it in a few different places. But so we have thirty six final fourteen since twenty fifteen. Thirty four of those thirty six had an effective field goal percentage of fifty.
00:46:33
Speaker 3: Percent or higher.
00:46:34
Speaker 7: All thirty six shot at least thirty two point seven percent from three and thirty three of thirty six shot just around seventy percent or higher. From the free throw line. Saint John's doesn't cover any of those three, so a lot of their metrics seem to say that they have to get there differently, like they drive a lot, they don't shoot the three extremely well. So that's just one thing to be that I'm interested in. And the other one, this is a Ken Palm stat that's everywhere, but in the sixty fourteen era, there have been thirty nine teams to enter the tournament as a one or two seed that weren't ranked in the preseason eight peopole. They have zero final fours, that is Saint John's and Michigan State this year, So those are two teams to potentially worry about. And then I got two more for you. This one I thought was kind of fascinating with Florida. So Florida actually entered the regular season at sixty to one odds to win it all and is now obviously a one seed. So we have data since two thousand and nine on preseason odds, we've had twelve teams listed at thirty to one or higher in the preseason and ended up with a one seed. Only one made the final four, Gonzaga in twenty seventeen and none have won it all. Now, I asked myself this question, so aregurgitated to you guys? How good were those twelve teams?
00:47:46
Speaker 3: Right? Like in terms of rankings and during the.
00:47:48
Speaker 7: Dance, well, all were AP top five and all were top nine in RPI, so pretty decent teams. Now that's Florida, So I know Jim was talking about them potentially not making it there. I think a lot of the talking heads like Florida, but their path is tough. And then I leave you with one, just fun one.
00:48:08
Speaker 3: We tend to.
00:48:09
Speaker 7: See unders with high totals early in March Madness in Round of sixty four earlier games with the total of one hundred and forty or more, which is this year, almost every single game, it looks like there's sixty percent to the under for a fourteen percent ROI since twenty twelve finishing above five hundred for the under in six straight tournaments. So unders tend to come in early in these games, and this year got a lot of high totals, so it should be a good one.
00:48:35
Speaker 5: That spooks me. I think I'm on too many overs based on that one. I might have to do some think.
00:48:42
Speaker 3: The crazy thing about those totals though. One more thing.
00:48:45
Speaker 7: It's the highest and I look this up every game around of sixty four the highest we've seen in thirty years. I've got totals since ninety five. We've never seen this average high totals. We have like ten or twelve games at one hundred and fifty plus, so some wild.
00:48:58
Speaker 5: Games out there.
00:48:59
Speaker 6: This was the most efficient season in college basketball history in terms of scoring, so that probably you know rising tide lists all boat sort of thing. Last year I think was the most efficient, and then this year blew it away by another like point per possession. It's it's been nuts.
00:49:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Gym's out here given overs for his best bets.
00:49:18
Speaker 5: I'm fighting a sixty percent trend. What am I doing?
00:49:21
Speaker 4: It's a right at least in bullshit.
00:49:23
Speaker 1: Anyways, we can't wait to have you with us in Chicago for the Massive Favorites Live event.
00:49:33
Speaker 4: You and the entire three man.
00:49:35
Speaker 1: Weave crew, who are really like the original impresarios when it comes to using analytics to bet on college basketball. I know you guys do this well in a variety of ways, so we're stoked to have you in Chicago. I'll make as many to Paul Bluema Demon references as I possibly can at the live event, so we can live back the glory years went to Paul in Mark Cat. We're going back and forth, good Catholic schools dominating college basketball.
00:50:06
Speaker 4: I remember those days, Jim. I know you're an old guy.
00:50:08
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, My dad got his master's degree from De Paul, so you know he's got some Blue Demon history as well. So you know, we go all the way back. I will say too, I've had some good times at Joe's on Weed. Great great setup, like to watch games. Uh, and I'm pumped to go back there and have the mic in my hand this time instead of be the one watching whatever performance is happening.
00:50:27
Speaker 1: I'll bet you've had some good time at Joe's on Weed. Okay, Simon, Simon, you got them and get Simon.
00:50:36
Speaker 4: You're on a heater, Simon, come on, come on. Dramatic pause, dramatic pass right there, all right.
00:50:45
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by bet three six five in is now live in my.
00:50:50
Speaker 4: Home state of Illinois.
00:50:53
Speaker 1: You bet three sixty five customers, including those in ELOI get Illinois get one hundred and fifty dollars bonus bets. When you bet five dollars dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
00:51:12
Speaker 4: Whatever the moment.
00:51:13
Speaker 1: It's never ordinary at bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois. Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virjanuary eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off In Iowa terms conditioned restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday eleven am, talking March Madness, all things betting, betting and media. His extraordinary career with Stanford, Steve Famous from Sports Center, from College Game Day, the original host of Behind the Bets the College Years, going back many many years. Download us some Spotify, Apple Podcast wherever you get your pods rate review, subscribe you as five stars, say.
00:52:03
Speaker 4: Whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
00:52:14
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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BED three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. We are live from our tummy John Home Studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter, and also Simon.
00:00:29
Speaker 2: Hello, Chad, It's mid March. What are we talking? We talk in baseball? We talking Premier League. What are we talking today?
00:00:35
Speaker 3: Brother?
00:00:35
Speaker 1: Oh, you're a teaser. You know what we're talking about. It's the high holy week of the NFL off season.
00:00:43
Speaker 4: Here at Action Network.
00:00:44
Speaker 1: March Madness has arrived in the first run of the NCAA Tournament. Starts this Thursday with sixteen games and then sixteen more on Friday. It's a gambling extravaganza for college hoops fans all weekend long. March Madness always a warm spot in my heart, just because you know, my best selling book, The Odds was based entirely on tracking college basketball betters through the college basketball season. Today, we're going to get ready for all things betting for the big Dance to close today's show. Like we do during the NFL season, We've got our director of Research, Evan Abrams, who will deliver the last word with his favorite tournament betting trends. But right now, a man who I would have profiled in the odds if he had been alive back then. We welcome long time contributor to our Big Bets on Campus podcast, a college hoops fanatic, one third of the popular group three man Weave, the University of Missouri's finest Welcome to the show, Jim Root.
00:01:56
Speaker 5: There we go, let's do it. How young do you think I am? Chad? You don't think I was a lot like.
00:02:00
Speaker 4: I wanted to make you feel good.
00:02:02
Speaker 5: Okay, I'll take it.
00:02:03
Speaker 3: I'll think you.
00:02:03
Speaker 1: No, you got so much grief before we came on the air, because you're from like a town outside Milwaukee that Matt Mitchell happens to know, and so he was excited to rip it. And so I just wanted to make you feel a little bit better. And you know, Deage, you a little bit.
00:02:17
Speaker 5: Needed the good vibes. I appreciate that.
00:02:19
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's been a busy, you know what, thirty six hours since the bracket dropped, But we're getting closer to the end of the tunnel of content and actually getting to games.
00:02:28
Speaker 5: So ready to chop it up with you guys.
00:02:29
Speaker 6: I feel like my takes are warmed up, they're sharpened, ready to really dig in here.
00:02:34
Speaker 4: Well, you have no choice.
00:02:35
Speaker 1: By the way, Jim will be joining us in Chicago for our live Elite eight show, which I'll share more details about in one moment. If you are listening this to this in Illinois, big news, folks, the favorite podcast presented by Bet three six five is now live in my home state of Illinois and the new Bet three sixty five. Customers, including those in Illinois, get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites to posit ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures.
00:03:17
Speaker 4: And more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary.
00:03:20
Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five, especially in Illinois. Must be twenty one or older. In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply. As I mentioned, Jim will be joining us for our Elite eight March Madness Games event on Saturday, March twenty ninth at Joe's on Weed in the beautiful City of Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks, free life show with Stucky Jim RSVP. To reserve your spot, follow the link in this episode description or google favorite podcast event Chicago and our SVP. The site will pop right up. We're excited to have Jim on the show. Excited to have Jim and the three man Weave crew join us for the event in Chicago.
00:04:25
Speaker 4: Jim, from your point of view, you have.
00:04:28
Speaker 1: Been a college basketball betting expert for a very long time. I know deeply how connected you are both to betting and college basketball. Does this tournament feel especially top heavy?
00:04:44
Speaker 5: Yes?
00:04:46
Speaker 6: I typically am trying to find the underdogs I like most, and I'm setting up my final four with absolutely no more than two to one seeds. Who else can I get in the mix? To GetUp there, and I keep coming back to probably three one seed, and at that point I'm forcing somebody that's not a fourth one seed to get in there. These four teams are so good and analytically they've separated themselves. Whether you look at Ken, Palm, Bart, Torvik, wherever you want your predictive rankings to come from, they've separated there.
00:05:14
Speaker 5: And even further down the bracket, it's top heavy.
00:05:18
Speaker 6: I'll give a shout out to Will Warren. He's got a great website writing about college hoops. But the top like twenty five teams are better than a standard top twenty five, and so that means your four seeds, your five seeds. Perhaps that's going to lead to less upsets in that part of the bracket too.
00:05:33
Speaker 5: I hope not. We want a little early chaos.
00:05:35
Speaker 6: Would love to see that some March madness magic, but I think it's worth monitoring and potentially we do get some sort of chalk heavy bracket as we go through this big dance.
00:05:45
Speaker 1: If you are putting in your the three top seeds to make it, I'm assuming it's Duke Florida, Auburn, Houston is out, or am I making an ass out of you and me.
00:06:00
Speaker 5: Yeah, how dare you?
00:06:01
Speaker 3: Chad?
00:06:02
Speaker 5: No, I would have Houston in there.
00:06:03
Speaker 6: Actually, I just mean there is some question around Jaywin Roberts's ankle, and they have got definitely the hardest eight nine draw. With Gonzaga waiting there in the second round, I think all the math will tell you that's a really, really tough game for him. The one I don't have right now, I don't should I spot spoil.
00:06:20
Speaker 5: My final four is that am I allowed to.
00:06:21
Speaker 4: Do whatever you want? Man, free flowing show, do whatever you need to do.
00:06:26
Speaker 6: The one I don't have is Florida, And that hurts me because every time I watch them, I just can't stop like professing how good they are. But they've become such a darling. Everybody's picking them in the title, like ESPN every show. Right after they're like, well it's got.
00:06:41
Speaker 5: To be Florida.
00:06:42
Speaker 6: They just won the SEC why can't they win the national title? I have some questions there. I mean, they've got great depth, but they if their three guards aren't making shots, the perimeter can get a little bit dicey. I've seen them get punked early in games a couple of times. Georgia did it to him. My Missouri Tigers did it to him in Gainesville, and then Todd Golden's never won a tournament game, and that's not like an eliminator. It's not impossible to go win the tournament, but you'd like to have one under your belt before you have to go win six, including two on the biggest stage. So Florida is the one I'm barely leaving out. You could probably leave Auburn out given the way their performance has been lately. I just don't really like anybody else in that region, so I kind of end up defaulting to the Tigers there, and then Duke's just kind of otherworldly right now, as long as flag is healthy.
00:07:30
Speaker 1: You didn't give us your final four, though, because you gave us three of the number one, and so now that was good. Like we're going to foreshadow and tease for a little bit later in the show, Simon.
00:07:44
Speaker 4: Before we came on.
00:07:45
Speaker 1: Earlier today, you were dropping hints about amongst your professional gambling group chat like teams that were starting to get talked about.
00:07:59
Speaker 5: Can you share, Yeah, it's I would say, just from the top.
00:08:03
Speaker 2: The group I talk to are the guys I followed for college basketball, are old, like average age seventy two, like legit old dudes, and they are very about that Big East action. They love the Big East like that is, even though it's not what it used to be. They're always biased towards it, and you know, obviously it's worked out for him, right The Yukon has just been an incredible run. That was a team they were biased to. This year, it really is Saint John's and I would love to get your perspective of it where everyone's talking Duke Florida. These guys love not only the way that Saint John's playing, but the fact of their coach has been there before with multiple different programs and has done it before. Is that a team that is no longer a sleeper because they're so talked about but loved bhite people. Are they still, as you view as a better a team that not enough people are giving respect to because you know, Saint John's is being painted as having a really tough road to getting to the finals.
00:08:55
Speaker 4: He's also the same age as all the people in that group.
00:08:58
Speaker 6: Text exactly, No, I'm a buyer of Saint John's. I think that region is so loaded. It's probably my favorite, well, well maybe not my favorite one.
00:09:10
Speaker 5: But it's my.
00:09:10
Speaker 6: Favorite two, it's my favorite three, probably my favorite four of all those seed lines, So that makes it really tough to pick. But Saint John's they you just know they're never going to lay an egg, like you're getting an A plus effort from them. Patino is such a great motivator. The defense is absurd, the floor is really high, Like, I don't think this team is remotely prone to an upset because you're just you're not gonna get a stinker on that end, and you have the ceiling outcomes where if they make shots like that, that's the variance for them is if they actually have a game where the threes go in, they're gonna look incredible. They're just so good at everything else, like the turnover margin, the rebounding margin.
00:09:46
Speaker 5: They win those.
00:09:47
Speaker 6: They stress you on the perimeter more than you're typically used to because they've got size and athleticism and they're physical. It's kind of a handsy Patino approach on the perimeter. I'm sure those big East guys love seeing that. I think they're just they' high floor. And then you get them in the sweet sixteen against whether it's Texas Tech or whoever. And then Florida and they lead eight. If they make seven or eight threes, this team is unbeatable. So I totally buy them as though.
00:10:12
Speaker 5: So did you throw a little bet on twenty five to one to win the title? Yeah? Yeah, I don't mind that.
00:10:18
Speaker 6: I mean it's analytically they haven't performed that well, like the fact that they're not inside the top ten at Ken Palm's a little surprising given their record, But I think part of that is they didn't smack teams in the in the non conference the way maybe they would have hoped to, Like, they didn't beat teams by forty they were winning by twenty five instead, And at that point that's kind of a diminishing returns.
00:10:38
Speaker 5: From me in terms of predictive value with big teams. So I buy that.
00:10:42
Speaker 1: You know, you just mentioned Saint John's. I feel like it looks like they're the last two seed on the two line right and now they've got to travel cross country to go play in a game. Do you think they would have been better off being the first three seed and getting to go play in New Jersey?
00:11:05
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think they would have adored being in Newark, even if it's Duke they're playing there. All the one seeds are good, so there's not like a big downgrade there, and the crowd they would have going Providence Newark. Everybody talked about it last year with Yukon not having to get on a flight, Like if you're just bussing everywhere you need to go from New York, there is an advantage in that, and I think just with the crowd and with the travel ease, they probably would have preferred that. I always think it would be fun if the selection committee released one through sixty eight and every team got to pick their spot in order, you know, like if they would have said, well, yeah, we'll take the three in the East over the two out west and kind of let the chips fall where they may.
00:11:45
Speaker 1: Isn't an amazing how Patino does it everywhere he goes. Within moments he's got this team turned around, and moments to me is a season or two right where it doesn't matter what the school has been, He's always done it. As a guy who watches so much college basketball, Jim, what have you seen from Patino?
00:12:05
Speaker 4: The way he coaches?
00:12:06
Speaker 1: You mentioned the way he motivates that it just isn't replicable from other coaches that only he can execute on these quick tonearounds.
00:12:16
Speaker 6: Yeah, the way he coaches effort is really stunning to me. I mean, the guys play their tails off, and there's a few other coaches that I think do it relatively consistently, Like Buzz Williams has this Shaka smart kind of has it the way the guys played defensively, but then he pairs it with like really smart offensive basketball and they can't shoot, but they know it, like they're fairly self aware, and they get good shots and like, all right, what are we actually good at. Let's not lean into a weakness, Let's really dig into a strength. And I don't think other coaches necessarily have that. And then just there's some intrinsic parts of it too, of like instilling confidence, letting guys like really go and be who they are as players. I think other times, when maybe a guy transfers from one coach to another, he's not sure where his role is gonna fall, how he should play within a new system. And it seems like Patino just gets these guys comfortable immediately, and that's hard to do, especially he brought in some guys with high usage rates at previous schools.
00:13:16
Speaker 5: Davon Smith, Kadia, Richmond.
00:13:18
Speaker 6: They've taken less shots this year, used less possessions and still still seem very comfortable and winning helps. But you know, it's kind of a what came first, the chicken or the egg there.
00:13:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. Kyla Parti too.
00:13:31
Speaker 1: When he was recruiting at Kentucky, he would always talk about and you would always hear the players talk about He's not promised me a starting gig. He's not promising me high usage rates. He's just telling me of how he is going to use me and making me feel good. And I like seeing like these old head coaches who have become so adept at changing the way they coach and communicating with players and then succeeding. I mean, look Arkansas too, Kyla Parti's taking a team of the tournament again. It would be a dream to get Kyla Pari and Rit Patino, you know, a throwback to nineties college basketball, early two thousands college basketball royalty going at each other again.
00:14:20
Speaker 4: I think I haven't asked you a question yet.
00:14:23
Speaker 1: I think both of these guys, I'm just pontificating, you know, because it's because it's what I want to do right now. All means I think these guys are tailor made for this social media age.
00:14:35
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:14:35
Speaker 6: Well, I think there's some coaches that have seen the changing of the tides and have been like, I don't want to be a part of this version. And those two have adapted so smoothly. I mean I used to always call Cali Pari like the car salesman, Like he can kind of figure out the pitch to anybody, and even as generations change, he can scale that pitch to whoever he needs too.
00:15:01
Speaker 5: He's a good talker, that's for sure.
00:15:03
Speaker 6: And Patino clearly has that gear too, and that helps with recruiting, It helps with motivating, it helps with game planning. I have been very impressed, and yeah, it would be funny to see Kentucky Louisville rivalry reborn with those coaches, only it's Saint John's Arkansas instead. They're different shades of red in that one.
00:15:22
Speaker 1: I think I think calling the car salesman diminishes his skill because that feels like a pejorative.
00:15:28
Speaker 5: That's true, that's true.
00:15:29
Speaker 4: He's guys.
00:15:31
Speaker 1: You put them on social media like Patino this year the locker room, the way those clips have come out, that has been glorious. Those are perfect recruiting tools to get new players coming in. Simon, you're shaking your head. I feel like you've fallen in love with Patino this year.
00:15:49
Speaker 7: I have.
00:15:50
Speaker 2: And this is someone that legitily hated this guy, Like, you know, yeah, he rubbed me the wrong way, brother, Like his whole thing of being like, I'm the shit, You're all idiots. You know, obviously we know what he did off the court. I don't really hold that against It was more about his person on the court. Now I've come full three to six round. I'm like, oh, talk your shit, Brick, like you're that dude, you're running the show. And the fact that he's turned Saint John's around. I mean, I don't think in my lifetime, Chad, I don't think they were good in my lifetime. Like that was all before my really coming into college basketball. Then being relevant and especially being the Northeast, you always hear about them and they should be able to recruit. They're the team of New York. All this nonsense never mattered. And they bring him the right coach and he turns on around. That's why we love I mean, you're talking about, you know, coaches going to different places like it's It's one of my favorite parts off college basketball is how important the head coach is because it is just five starters, right, and you get the right guy in there. He brings in the right talent and he could change everything. And you know you're talking Calipari. I think anyone can remember, right, New Hampshire was that what the school was a turn around? And then with mass UMass and then went to Memphis, and it's like these schools that are irrelevant you never hear about. That's what great coaches can do, right, They can go there and make them somebody. So yeah, I know this is becoming a heavy Saint John's podcast, but it's like every professional better I've talked to in the last three or four days, they just keep bringing them up and they just keep saying like this is the exact type of team and guy that pulls off a run on us in a year where I don't know if you have the same view of it, Jim, but it really is no one. There is no guarantee like we've had Yukon the last two years being the kind of guaranteed team.
00:17:32
Speaker 5: This year, it really is pick or poison.
00:17:34
Speaker 2: Like everyone's gonna look like an idiot and someone's gonna look like they're really smart the end of it, because it is all so many random teams. Is there really a team that you know to you person that's jumping out to no one's talking about or is it kind of like you just said, is it the four or five really good teams and the rest are kind of trailing.
00:17:49
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's that's more what it's been. It's basically like we have four Yukon's this year. Like if you kind of had really elite competition last year, maybe they would have run into some some trouble in the final four and Zach Edy tried, but you know that perduc team just wasn't quite on their level. I'd see, like if we get a Florida versus Duke final or Houston versus Duke semifinal, like that could go in any direction, just clash of the Titans kind of thing. Further down like the twos and three seeds, maybe somebody can win, Like we got Tennessee just knocked off Auburn on a neutral court. Okay, maybe Auburn's a little bit vulnerable. Florida lost at Georgia, lost at.
00:18:26
Speaker 5: Home in the Missouri.
00:18:27
Speaker 6: Like, these teams aren't invincible, but I think when you know, push comes to shove on the biggest stage, we're going to see them at their best, their best versions. And I would be pretty surprised if any of those four one seeds went down before Sweet sixteen, and even Elite eight I think would surprise me a little bit.
00:18:42
Speaker 1: So we just talked a lot about Saint John's, but also in that region Gonzaga, Georgia and you talked about earlier in the show. Saint John's is not a team that any of their predictive analytics sort of what the selection committee is looking at to make decisions, we're anywhere near the Gonzaga. Nearly all of their predictive analytics were in the top ten. They just didn't have a lot of good wins. We're talking about Thursday games. Is Gonzaga a team that could be one of your favorite picks for Thursday? If not, who are your favorite picks for Thursday?
00:19:22
Speaker 5: Yeah, this one's kind of odd.
00:19:23
Speaker 6: I actually lean towards Georgia there, despite as good as Gonzaga has been and Georgia on the spread, I will advance Gonzaga, but that spreads around a touchdown that's.
00:19:33
Speaker 5: A little too much.
00:19:34
Speaker 6: George's played a similar kind of copy of Gonzaga, like Florida is somewhat modeled after the Gonzaga approach of two bigs, play up and down, really bludging the rim. And Georgia got up by twenty five against Florida. Now they let them all the way back in had to win in the final minute, But I still think it's representative of what they can do against that kind of approach, and they've got a ton of physicality. They've got like six different bigs they can rotate against Ek and Gonzaga's front line. So leaning away from there, Memphis is one of my favorite first round that's they are an underdog in a five to twelve game as the five seed, that's going to catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing for me there is Memphis is poor in predictive analytics because they're terrible against bad teams. Like they are the opposite of a computer trigger, where when they play somebody they're a twenty point favorite against, they win by seven, and when they're a thirty point favorite, they win by seven again. Like they just don't really blow teams out. But if you put a team across from them that they view as their equal and top twenty five, top fifty ish competition. That's when gozer, that's when Memphis shines. And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe it'll chip on the shoulder like we're underdogs against the twelve seed. After all we did in the non conference, they played one of the best schedules of anybody in the entire country, flew all over the country, so I'm not worried about them going all the way across to Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker.
00:20:57
Speaker 5: Room and you get a Memphis win there in the first round.
00:21:00
Speaker 1: Well, look, Memphis, a lot of people would argue, especially because of their injury issues, probably shouldn't be higher than an eight seed, and so the five seed is a little bit of a surprise.
00:21:10
Speaker 4: Also, I like that you're.
00:21:11
Speaker 1: Picking Memphis because that is the twelve to five matchup that, if I had to bet, was going to be the one where the majority of bracketeers.
00:21:21
Speaker 4: Aren't choosing the twelve.
00:21:23
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it wouldn't mathematically make sense for them to do it. Like I couldn't hold it against anybody to say, look, Colorado States favorite, Why wouldn't I try to get some upset points if my pool has it? But yeah, I just I think the way, you know, the stat that I keep going back to for that game is if you filter Bart Torovik's website for games just against top fifty opponents, Memphis is twenty fifth and Colorado State's one hundredth, and they're both playing a top fifty opponent here, and yet the team that's way way lower in that kind of a stratosphere of games is the favorite. Yeah, I'll at least take the points there, and again I think Memphis wins out right.
00:22:00
Speaker 4: Who else are you eyeing for Thursday?
00:22:03
Speaker 6: Some of my stronger leans here are totals, So can I go in that direction?
00:22:09
Speaker 4: We accept those, right, it's a betting podcast.
00:22:12
Speaker 1: We're not interested in just sort of the bad bets that you can parlay into your favorite team. We want the best bets with the best edges, no matter the market.
00:22:22
Speaker 6: Beautiful, I can do that, Okay, two totals I like quite a bit, high Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from one fifty three and a half. I thought the market would kind of jump on this one. The tempos the question mark is it going to be fast enough, But I think the efficiency is going to be ridiculous in this game. I don't really see how either team gets to stop. The problem that High Point had in their rare games where they did have issues was a really dominant ball screen point guard operator that's comfortable in the mid range against their drop coverage. And Braden Smith's probably the best point guard in that system in the entire country. I think he'll light them up both as a scorer and passer. But then the other end, High Point top twenty five offense, they get downhill, they've got guys that can get to the rim, They've got a great offensive rebounder in Bodo Bodo in the paint, and Perdue's rim defense is non existent, like one of the worst in the country despite being a Big ten team.
00:23:16
Speaker 5: They don't have any shot blocking.
00:23:18
Speaker 6: I think that's going to be a real problem and you just see points back and forth. The other big total. I like Clemson and McNeice the under in that one, and this one is really tempo based, where I think both will slow each other down. They kind of press to slow the game down, Like Clemson doesn't even try to get steals in their press.
00:23:36
Speaker 5: They're just like.
00:23:37
Speaker 6: Making you use the shot clock, get far down into it and have to take a tough one with five or ten seconds on the clock.
00:23:44
Speaker 5: And if you extrapolate that over the course of a.
00:23:48
Speaker 6: Game where both teams are doing that to each other, I think the possession count comes in way under what's projected here in one hundred and thirty four and a half one hundred and thirty four.
00:23:55
Speaker 5: I've taken quite a bit of that as well.
00:23:58
Speaker 4: Do you have any picks, games, sides.
00:24:03
Speaker 1: Totals that you love for Friday, Because don't forget, we're doing this Tuesday. People get forty eight hours to sort of digest, so Friday's includers here.
00:24:12
Speaker 4: Nothing has happened yet.
00:24:14
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:24:15
Speaker 6: I don't even think I was doing that intentionally, going with a bunch of Thursday games there. But the more I've investigated the Saint Mary's Vanderbilt game, I end up leaning more and more towards the Gales. I just think they are so good at making games their style, and this is a really big clash of styles. Vanderbilt wants to run, they want to press, they want to get up and down. And Saint Mary's like they see Gonzaga three times a year and they makeing Zaga play in the mud. They slog it up, and I think Randy Bennett can do that to Vanderbilt. Vandy played Drake early in the year, which is a somewhat comparable team where they want to play super duper slow, and although Vandy force twenty turnovers, Drake still won that game by ten because they dominated the glass. I think Saint Mary's can do that. So I laid some three and a half. I think it's more four in the market now, but I think that's an okay price as well Saint Mary's. And let's see one other Friday bet.
00:25:09
Speaker 5: How about Oklahoma.
00:25:11
Speaker 6: I think Yukon's maybe gotten a little overvalued in the market just because of how good they've been in the tournament the last two years, the name value of Danny Hurley. But these two teams are like coin flip and every analytical ranking. So you're gonna give me four and a half points, and I think Oklahoma's got pretty easy ways to score, getting downhill off the dribble. Yukon fouls a ton. Oklahoma gets to the free throw line. I think they're going to live the line, gets some easy points, and Oklahoma has not lost a game to a non conference opponent. They're like six and one on neutral floors against really good teams. Their only loss was to Kentucky by one in the SEC Tournament on the buzzer beater. I think they're at the very least in that game and could knock off Yukon.
00:25:53
Speaker 1: We still haven't gotten your third Final four. I do want to do that after this, Simon. Back in nineteen seventy seven, Milwaukee's own Marquette University was the toast of college basketball, winning the NCAA Championship under the leadership of charismatic head coach Al McGuire. It was this week forty eight years ago that McGuire got asked if he'd be wearing a luxury jacket on the sidelines for the tournament, to which McGuire responded, absolutely, You got to wear the blue blazer when you go to the Big Dance, And just like that, this beloved tournament became known as the Big Dance. Coach McGuire knew the importance of looking his best and understood that when you're comfortable, you perform at your best. Just like our beloved sponsor Tommy John. Go from first round upset to diaper Dandy at Tommy john dot com slash favorites and punch your ticket to the big dance of high performance and casual essentials. And with a special sale for our listeners, cutting down the nets in flexible, breathable comfort just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing Tommy John in twenty twenty five?
00:27:03
Speaker 5: Because comfort is king?
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00:27:22
Speaker 5: Who's the first play you think of? Chowne here, Marquette? Is it d Wade? Jimmy Butler?
00:27:27
Speaker 4: It's definitely d Wade.
00:27:28
Speaker 1: But you know, I'm an old head, so like when I think about Marquette, I do think about al McGuire because my sort of seminal moments of college basketball were al McGuire and dick Enberg doing Saturday afternoon games on NBC and so you know, don't forget Al McGuire basically retired after that seventy seven championship and became the original Dick ev.
00:27:54
Speaker 4: He was amazing as a broadcaster.
00:27:56
Speaker 1: So I actually tend to think of Al McGuire when I think of Marquette University.
00:28:02
Speaker 5: I was so glad I am bias.
00:28:05
Speaker 2: I think the best era was that two thousands twenty ten era. So for me, Travis Deaner, man, that's that's my guy from Marquette, Like, I missed those days of having guys like him that are there forever huge personality scrappy. I definitely missed that era of Marquette.
00:28:22
Speaker 4: Jim So I'm Milwaukee guy, who do you think that from Marquette?
00:28:26
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's probably Wade.
00:28:27
Speaker 6: I remember where I was when he went for the triple double to beat Kentucky to go to the Final four, So that that.
00:28:33
Speaker 5: Has stuck with me.
00:28:34
Speaker 6: But Deaner's a great a great name pull too. I mean he was on that team and stuck around and they were just they won that the TBT, the basketball tournament that happens in this summer, and Deaner hit a buzzer beater or late game winner in that when he was still one of the old heads on the team, and it was great to see him back out there with a bunch of guys ten years younger and still contributing.
00:28:56
Speaker 1: I also would like to say that when d Wade had that run in the tournament, I was covering the tournament in San Antonio for ESPN and I went out. I finished my story, and like a lot of times when you're writing some of these things, you pre write the stories because the deadlines are so tight that you kind of got a tournament early and hope that they come close to what your narrative is. So I turned in my story and probably needed, like you know, if things went right, needed to change a couple hundred words. It wasn't about Marquette. It was about the games I was covering in San Antonio. I went out that night and got so drunk with a friend of the podcast Seth Wickersham and current ESPN College basketball or college football writer Pete Famil, who was not at ESPN at the time. I couldn't function the next day, Like I couldn't get out of bed.
00:29:58
Speaker 4: I was puke everywhere.
00:30:01
Speaker 1: I stood in the shower for like twenty five minutes hoping everything would clear up, and then I got a call from my editor. I needed to rewrite the whole freaking story and I could not. I could not even see straight. So whenever I think about d Wade in that final four run, I think about covering the NCAA tournament in San Antonio.
00:30:21
Speaker 5: How he ruined your life for a day, everything got ruined. That's a nightmare, fucking terrible.
00:30:32
Speaker 4: Sam, And I don't know if you wanted to ask a question. If not, I'll.
00:30:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got the one I can't believe and asked yet give me the underdogs?
00:30:38
Speaker 5: You like outright either Thursday, Friday, whatever?
00:30:41
Speaker 8: You got first one you see San Diego, And I know this isn't you know, a crazy one with the trendy and it's only plus two and a half, so we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here.
00:30:51
Speaker 6: But I just I love this team all season and I like the matchup. They mix in a bunch of z own which is going to keep the Michigan seven foot away from the rim a little bit. Maybe you get beat up on the offensive glass, but I think first shot defense will be pretty good there, and they're they're gonna force they could force twenty turnovers in this game. Michigan is really sloppy with the ball. The turnover rate defensively for u C. San Diego super high. They've got the guy Hayden Gray that leads the country and steal rate so easy buckets going the other way. And then Neewa Tate Jones their their conference player of the year point guard, kind of six to six jumbo point guard, New Zealander. He gets a lot of headlines and he should. He'll be a very fun guy to watch here. But they got a shooter named Tyler mcguy that is like almost goal Ky esque in his like total indiscriminate bombing like he will. His name's my guy, Yes, Tyler mcguy. I love it looks like McGee, but yeah, pronounced mc guy.
00:31:46
Speaker 4: He's now Tyler Simon's guy.
00:31:48
Speaker 5: Is my guy?
00:31:48
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, my guy, my guy. It's just a it's a fantastic nickname to go with. But yeah, he'll take twelve or fifteen threes if they let him really quick release. And if he hits six or seven, maybe he won't hit ten like Goalkie, but he hit six or seven against the reigning Big Ten Tournament champion. I think people are going to take a little bit of notice. So you see San Diego is won there for sure, and then right next to them in the bracket.
00:32:13
Speaker 5: I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's brutal for.
00:32:18
Speaker 6: Them with having played Sunday and then they have to go and play at altitude on Thursday in Denver. I don't love that, But the matchup with Texas A and M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A and M's huge strength, getting all over the offensive glass. They try to win the extras, win the possession battle, and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive rebounding team. They have not seen anyone quite like Texas A and M. But I think back to nine years ago when Yale beat Baylor in the first round. They still got the same coach. They were somewhat shorter in the front court, but they were physical and they kept an awesome offensive rebounding team in Baylor at Bay. I mean, they didn't, you know, shut him down in that area, but they were able to handle them and then they won out right.
00:32:58
Speaker 5: I think they can do the same thing too to Texas A and M.
00:33:01
Speaker 6: Here Texas A and M's guards will take a bunch of bad shots, they'll chuck, and Yale takes better shots and has better shooters, so I'll ride with Yale.
00:33:09
Speaker 1: There got a local West Hartford kid on the Yale basketball team this year. Jim, I kind of feel like you just mentioned Michigan and U see San Diego. I feel like Michigan got fucked, Like how are they a five seed the way they ran through the tournament? And not only a five seed, but they're the last team playing on Sunday and now they've got to travel cross country play a late Thursday game. Even if you think they're prime for an upset, because they've got some weaknesses, they're not a perfect team being a five seed. When you beat Wisconsin twice and Wisconsin's a three seed, do you feel like that was a fair seeding by the selection committee?
00:33:54
Speaker 5: Not really.
00:33:55
Speaker 6: The one part of it is just like you go in knowing they don't care about the Big Ten tournament game. It's like their pencils down feed up having a cocktail for completing the bracket already, and that's unfortunate. It sucks for Michigan because they clearly earned a higher spot by winning that game.
00:34:12
Speaker 5: But it's unfortunately what happened.
00:34:14
Speaker 6: And really I thought the committee did a bad job with this entire Denver site. Like you've got a ton of teams that played on Sunday that have to go to altitude, and like VCU played Sunday, they have to go to play BYU, who's an altitude comfortable team. Wisconsin played Sunday, has to go play Montana, who plays in an altitude conference on short rest, Like they really gave some teams some tough draws. And part of that is it's dumb at this point to have two Western sites when none of the Western teams are good, so you get end up shipping a bunch of Eastern teams out there in the first round. But I thought they did an especially bad job just kind of fumbling the bag with where they put those teams.
00:34:52
Speaker 1: They did an especially bad job with the tournament overall. Like it's been a controversy since the second you know, North Carolina got in, but a lot of seating, a lot of the games, a lot of the potential matchups. It's kind of awful. I feel disgusted by all of it. We're gonna have Evan on in a minute and He's got a great stat. Last year, teams that received more than half the spread bets went sixty eight percent against the spread. That's an ROI of over thirty percent. The previous eighteen tournaments, teams that are with that public had gone under the public teams had gone under forty eight percent against the spread. Have recent changes to college basketball made chalk success more inevitable? We talk like this is a very top heavy tournament, Like do you see the market catching up this year or is it going to continue to be the way it was last year.
00:35:53
Speaker 6: I would hope and expect the market catches up a little bit and makes some of the underdogs a little more viable.
00:36:00
Speaker 5: But there's a chance.
00:36:01
Speaker 6: And with the you know I mentioned earlier the strength of the top twenty five or so teams, that part of that is the shifting of the sport with the portal, and you know, the best man major players can immediately go beyond a better team and get a bag. And of course there are guys that transfer down and there are stars in that area as well. At Colorado State's best players from Colorado, like he transferred down there and he's an All American caliber guy. But those are going to be fewer and far between compared to the internal development that mid majors often we're able to do. So I worry that maybe there will be fewer upsets going forward. It does help this year that we got a lot of the best teams won their mid major conference tournaments. That gives me hope for the strength of the twelves and thirteens and fourteen seeds. But man, yeah, it does feel like there is starting to be a shift a little more clo closer and closer where.
00:36:54
Speaker 5: The talent is is on those top teams.
00:36:57
Speaker 6: Maybe maybe this is being the last year of the COVID year will help where the you know, all those fifth year veterans going up to a power conference team won't be there anymore.
00:37:06
Speaker 5: But that could still be the case this year.
00:37:09
Speaker 6: With that that's sixty eight percent stat I hope that's not the case. Come on, don't let the public feast that much.
00:37:14
Speaker 1: Well, look related to that, who are the money line favorites that you can't see losing the first two days early?
00:37:20
Speaker 6: Like I don't think Akron has a chance against Arizona. Like the style is a problem. They want to run, they want to get up and down and Arizona is like, good, let's do this. That sounds great to us. They played Sanford early in the year. That's also a team that wants to run. They won by thirty. That's not an exact matchup, exact similar comparison, but I think that's that's part of it. And in Michigan State Bryant, I know it's like fifteen points, but that one would stun me. And Brian's entire like identity is being bigger and more athletic than their mid major brethren. They got a bunch of down transfers, and then you go against a huge, physical Michigan State team that can just like match and exceed everything Bryant brings to the table that worries me. Matt Cox said it best on our podcast. He's like to pull out some of these upsets. I think you got to be different. You can't be better at what the team does across from you. And both of those are matchups where they're like a similar style, not quite a clone, but of the favorite and the favorites just better at their game.
00:38:19
Speaker 5: If you're in a survivor pool, who are you going with first?
00:38:22
Speaker 6: Arizona's probably one think they might struggle against Oregon in that next round. Oregon's just a tricky tournament team and then boom, you run into Duke, so you're not going to need to hang on to Arizona for a while. Oregon could be one again with Duke lurking right there. Kentucky, I think would be a good one. Troy could be a somewhat tough matchup because they're athletic, but Kentucky got Lamont Butler in there, and their draw is kind of tricky. I think the second round matchup, whether it's Illinois, Texas or Xavier, is tricky, So Kentucky's probably a good one to go with early. I think they can lose to anyone except Troy and just get him to the first round and then you can throw them out of your survivor pool.
00:38:57
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00:40:16
Speaker 4: It's all right.
00:40:16
Speaker 1: We've talked about Auburn, We've talked about Duke, We've talked about Houston. That is seventy five percent of your final four. Jim, we can't keep the people hanging any longer finish it off.
00:40:30
Speaker 6: Yeah, I said this was the West was my favorite, two, Saint John's my favorite, three, Texas Tech my favorite.
00:40:35
Speaker 5: Four Maryland. I'm going with Texas Tech.
00:40:38
Speaker 6: And maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I picked them to the final four in the preseason when they were like barely a top twenty five team, and now they're sitting here seventh and ken pound. I'm like, why would I turn my back on myself on past jim at this point considering how good they've been.
00:40:53
Speaker 5: The concern is the.
00:40:54
Speaker 6: Injury stuff, the nagging injuries for Darien Williams, Chance McMillan, two guys that sat up in the Big twelve tournament. I think they're going to be close enough to full strength this first weekend and hopefully by the second weekend when they would play a Saint John's or potentially a Florida. I think they'll be closer to one hundred percent by then. And I just like the coach here, kranp mcchasm's one everywhere he's been. I like the versatility the lineup. They can play big, they can play small, they can foll out the court with shooting, they can put a defense first lineup out there. I think they've got a lot of different ways to win. And when you're playing Florida and Saint John's back to back, two very different teams, I think you've got to be that kind of a chameleon. And I believe Texas Tech can get it done and be the one non one seed in my final four.
00:41:38
Speaker 1: Don't turn your back on past, Jim. That would be like turning your back on your roots.
00:41:44
Speaker 5: Oh there he is there. You get it, Yeah, you get it?
00:41:48
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Oh God, even Simon laughs.
00:41:51
Speaker 1: Simon a lot of times when I, you know, indulge myself with these terrible, bad jokes, I'm I'm looking at the script and so I don't see everyone's faces. But this time I wanted to see everyone's faces when I said it. Because Simon oftentimes does not laugh. He just sort of crinkles his eyes a little bit, and so I don't know if he's responding.
00:42:15
Speaker 4: This time he chuckled a little bit.
00:42:16
Speaker 5: And that got to be good. Brother. I'm tough. God, be actually good for me to laugh.
00:42:20
Speaker 2: I can't fake it anymore with you.
00:42:24
Speaker 5: Six seven years in.
00:42:26
Speaker 1: Wow, you know I was gonna say something but weave it at that. All right, let's bring in director of Research, Evan Abrams. He's gonna give us the last word with some betting trends to know this weekend.
00:42:42
Speaker 4: Evan, so glad to have you back.
00:42:44
Speaker 7: Well, what's up, guys, it's up, Jim. I got a bunch of stuff here. Yeah, I got a bunch of stuff here. So I'm gonna roll through it. Stop me down when you want me to. But just a bunch of different information. We're gonna start with free throws. A video just went out on Action Network kind of about the same concepts, so check it out there for more info. But basically, teams who hit at least seventy five percent from the free throw line cash at a fifty five percent rate, ats about six percent return on investment.
00:43:11
Speaker 3: Basically, you rise raise that.
00:43:13
Speaker 7: Free throw percentage for a team to seventy six percent, the ROI goes up to thirteen percent, and it's seventy seven percent. It's actually over twenty percent eighty seven fifty two to two ATS, and the NCAA tournament is two thousand and six. Hitch your free throw as you tend to cover the two teams. I think you probably want to highlight Wisconsin. They lead the nation almost eighty three percent. That's actually the second best free throw percentage almost ever for a tournament team. Villanova twenty twenty two made it to the final four. And I think the other one worth noting is Gonzaga at about eighty percent, second best free throw rate for an eight seed or higher, behind only twenty twenty one or Robert two as a fifteen seed actually upset the two in the seven so pretty decent category there. The other teams to potentially look for Lipscomb good from free throw Arizona, Michigan State, and Colorado State. So just an interesting trend to kind of talk about and kind of works year to year as well, So let me keep rolling here. Every year people kind of talk about betting blindly on these underdogs, kind of having a little fun. Well, it's actually worked lately, so round to sixty four blindly betting eleven seeds or higher on the money line has turned a profit each of the last four tournaments, and since twenty twelve, one hundred dollars better almost three hundred games would be up about seventeen percent return on investment, almost forty eight hundred bucks profiting in eight of the twelve years. So some people out there like to put ten bucks, twenty bucks, whatever it is on all of these underdogs en route.
00:44:41
Speaker 3: It's actually worked lately, which is fun. And this one is well.
00:44:45
Speaker 1: Us that you just told us that last year was such a chocky no, but.
00:44:52
Speaker 7: Just completely betting money lines because a lot of these big upsets tend to probably cover most of the other teams see your rout and like a ten to one, a twelve to one, which has actually hit lately, you know, especially when these six teams are beating one. So to me, that's probably what's done at the last few years, but nonetheless pretty crazy. And this one, this one's directly for you, Chad, since we talked about that for NFL. In terms of betting like the favorites and during the season, well, dating back to nineteen ninety, we've only seen two teams win the title having odds at twenty five to one are higher entering the tournament. They were both Connecticut in twenty eleven twenty five to one and twenty fourteen at one hundred to one. So since Yukon in twenty fourteen, every champion has had has been under twenty to one during the tournament.
00:45:38
Speaker 3: So right now, that.
00:45:39
Speaker 7: Would only be six teams Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama, and Tennessee. So obviously could get bucked, but those are the six teams right now that would work over the last decade of tournaments.
00:45:51
Speaker 3: So we will see.
00:45:53
Speaker 1: I thought when you said, I thought, when you said this is just for me, you were gonna resance like the nineteen seventy nine De Paul Blue Demons. We're number one in the country heading into the tournament, and yet they lost to who in March madness. That's that's what I thought you were going to say.
00:46:15
Speaker 7: Unfortunately wasn't an al Maguire stat, but we'll have to move on from there. This one is actually I actually looked up while you guys are talking about Saint John's and I had seen it in a few different places. But so we have thirty six final fourteen since twenty fifteen. Thirty four of those thirty six had an effective field goal percentage of fifty.
00:46:33
Speaker 3: Percent or higher.
00:46:34
Speaker 7: All thirty six shot at least thirty two point seven percent from three and thirty three of thirty six shot just around seventy percent or higher. From the free throw line. Saint John's doesn't cover any of those three, so a lot of their metrics seem to say that they have to get there differently, like they drive a lot, they don't shoot the three extremely well. So that's just one thing to be that I'm interested in. And the other one, this is a Ken Palm stat that's everywhere, but in the sixty fourteen era, there have been thirty nine teams to enter the tournament as a one or two seed that weren't ranked in the preseason eight peopole. They have zero final fours, that is Saint John's and Michigan State this year, So those are two teams to potentially worry about. And then I got two more for you. This one I thought was kind of fascinating with Florida. So Florida actually entered the regular season at sixty to one odds to win it all and is now obviously a one seed. So we have data since two thousand and nine on preseason odds, we've had twelve teams listed at thirty to one or higher in the preseason and ended up with a one seed. Only one made the final four, Gonzaga in twenty seventeen and none have won it all. Now, I asked myself this question, so aregurgitated to you guys? How good were those twelve teams?
00:47:46
Speaker 3: Right? Like in terms of rankings and during the.
00:47:48
Speaker 7: Dance, well, all were AP top five and all were top nine in RPI, so pretty decent teams. Now that's Florida, So I know Jim was talking about them potentially not making it there. I think a lot of the talking heads like Florida, but their path is tough. And then I leave you with one, just fun one.
00:48:08
Speaker 3: We tend to.
00:48:09
Speaker 7: See unders with high totals early in March Madness in Round of sixty four earlier games with the total of one hundred and forty or more, which is this year, almost every single game, it looks like there's sixty percent to the under for a fourteen percent ROI since twenty twelve finishing above five hundred for the under in six straight tournaments. So unders tend to come in early in these games, and this year got a lot of high totals, so it should be a good one.
00:48:35
Speaker 5: That spooks me. I think I'm on too many overs based on that one. I might have to do some think.
00:48:42
Speaker 3: The crazy thing about those totals though. One more thing.
00:48:45
Speaker 7: It's the highest and I look this up every game around of sixty four the highest we've seen in thirty years. I've got totals since ninety five. We've never seen this average high totals. We have like ten or twelve games at one hundred and fifty plus, so some wild.
00:48:58
Speaker 5: Games out there.
00:48:59
Speaker 6: This was the most efficient season in college basketball history in terms of scoring, so that probably you know rising tide lists all boat sort of thing. Last year I think was the most efficient, and then this year blew it away by another like point per possession. It's it's been nuts.
00:49:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, Gym's out here given overs for his best bets.
00:49:18
Speaker 5: I'm fighting a sixty percent trend. What am I doing?
00:49:21
Speaker 4: It's a right at least in bullshit.
00:49:23
Speaker 1: Anyways, we can't wait to have you with us in Chicago for the Massive Favorites Live event.
00:49:33
Speaker 4: You and the entire three man.
00:49:35
Speaker 1: Weave crew, who are really like the original impresarios when it comes to using analytics to bet on college basketball. I know you guys do this well in a variety of ways, so we're stoked to have you in Chicago. I'll make as many to Paul Bluema Demon references as I possibly can at the live event, so we can live back the glory years went to Paul in Mark Cat. We're going back and forth, good Catholic schools dominating college basketball.
00:50:06
Speaker 4: I remember those days, Jim. I know you're an old guy.
00:50:08
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, My dad got his master's degree from De Paul, so you know he's got some Blue Demon history as well. So you know, we go all the way back. I will say too, I've had some good times at Joe's on Weed. Great great setup, like to watch games. Uh, and I'm pumped to go back there and have the mic in my hand this time instead of be the one watching whatever performance is happening.
00:50:27
Speaker 1: I'll bet you've had some good time at Joe's on Weed. Okay, Simon, Simon, you got them and get Simon.
00:50:36
Speaker 4: You're on a heater, Simon, come on, come on. Dramatic pause, dramatic pass right there, all right.
00:50:45
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by bet three six five in is now live in my.
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00:51:12
Speaker 4: Whatever the moment.
00:51:13
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00:52:03
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