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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, brought to you by Polymarket.
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Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
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Speaker 1: This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
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Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
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Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
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Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
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Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
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Speaker 2: I think we've talked about this a lot on the show.
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Speaker 1: One of my least favorite moments of the week is when I have to walk up the steps to the third floor here in my house where we shoot this show on Sunday nights. It's the end of a long day. It's usually dark. I got to turn on the lights. Something will have gone wrong because we can't ever just have an easy day. I turned off the television on the second floor of my house after the Chiefs had missed a two-point conversion and the Broncos had made a two-point conversion. And with little time left, we were covering both of those games. By the time I sat down, before I even turned on my camera, we were down by double digits in both games. That's how quickly... These things change. We're freaking gambling today. Full day of gambling. Just everything was the roller coaster of gambling.
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Speaker 3: Yeah. Really fun day. And, uh, obviously it hurts when it doesn't work out for us.
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Speaker 4: Like you said, it's in a two and two ends one in three, another losing week, brutal, but, um, it's why we love it. It's just nothing gets you more into the games and we're excited. The more the ups and downs, it's the roller coaster.
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Speaker 3: And, uh, Yeah, it hurts.
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Speaker 4: As someone that sat through an Eagles game in person today, it was a painful, long, slow death today.
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Speaker 3: And I thought our luck had turned right there at the end.
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Speaker 4: But like you said, those 30 seconds were just such a killer. So another brutal day.
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Speaker 2: Well, look, it was also exemplified in the early games, right?
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Speaker 1: If you had told me in the final moments of the witching hour, we would have Josh Allen driving, needing a touchdown and a two-point conversion to get us the cover. We would have the Houston Texans allegedly vaunted defense just needing to stop the Cowboys one more time. And we needed Joe Burrow to drive down the field, score a touchdown, and get a two-point conversion when they had all the momentum. I would have been like, maybe Maybe one of those things, maybe two of those things, because we're gambling.
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Speaker 2: What happened? None of those things happened.
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Speaker 3: None of them happened. And I was watching literally on my phone in the stadium.
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Speaker 4: I don't know if they have Starlink, whatever it is, the Wi-Fi now is just so great at these stadiums where you can literally watch Red Zone on your phone. But Eagles didn't score a single point in the second half. And I think we're over 12 on third downs. Franchise, record, which is not something to be proud.
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Speaker 3: Of in any way.
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Speaker 4: But I was watching a lot of the red zone, obviously, um, cause the game was so terrible. And like you said, everything, the 1pm was going wrong for us. And then all of a sudden Rams came back. I also lost my Eagles, but it was just absolutely brutal. But, um, like we say all the time, though, it's, it's, you tried to overreact. Yeah. You tried to overreact too much to it, but, um, Joe Burrow, he had opportunities, burned us.
00:03:47
Speaker 3: The bills had opportunities. Drake may display better. And, same for the Eagles.
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Speaker 4: They had opportunities and Matthew Stafford played better. So it's as much as I want to say, Oh, we deserve those covers. It's like we had our opportunities, but those teams all played so poorly. They deserve to lose and not cover. So that bad reads.
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Speaker 1: Nobody deserves anything. We had a spirited debate this morning. Last game in was Buffalo minus six and a half. We were, we both loved Miami. We loved Miami all week as double digit dogs. And we, Just didn't have the courage to put them in because we were afraid of audience revolt. Maybe there's more audience revolt if we just straight up lose than if we ask them to lose games with bad teams.
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Speaker 2: We took out Philly with the lose of Lane Johnson's injury.
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Speaker 1: This is our Sunday night week four reaction show. We're going to recap the misery of the day from our final five picks and our sharper square $ 25, 000. Pro Football Pick'em Contest. First game up, Simon. Let's talk about New England at Buffalo, minus six and a half. The Bills gave up a very easy drive to start the game for the Patriots. But then Josh Allen went nine for 10. So I stupidly bet Bills live just to win outright. Drake May fumbled on the next drive. In the final minute of the first half, there were five possessions, multiple turnovers. And the Bills are up 17-14. I'm like, all right, we're going to come back. Everything's going to be settled. Josh Allen will recalibrate. It did not go that way. It did not go that way.
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Speaker 3: No, but hats off to Drake May. It was a great Drake May game.
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Speaker 2: He was great.
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Speaker 4: Once again, didn't have his best game, like was below, I think, 6% completion percentage. But on third downs, when he needed to make the big-time throws, he did. And when they got in the red zone, they scored touchdowns.
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Speaker 3: You can't say the same for the Bills.
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Speaker 4: So, yeah, like in a game where it was all there, you know, Drake May was begging to lose it.
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Speaker 3: Like he threw that really bad pick.
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Speaker 2: Begging.
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Speaker 3: Yeah.
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Speaker 4: He gave up a fumble when he got strip sacked. And there was just different opportunities for the Bills to capitalize. But Patriots saved their season.
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Speaker 3: They hung in.
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Speaker 4: And, you know, we talked. That flips their season, right? They go from being one and three in a total hole. Now they're 2-2, and they're only one back or half a game back of the Bills. It's a really, really impressive win for the Patriots, which felt like a really bad spot. They found a way to make it work, and you said it. The defense of the Bills just struggled. They had bad penalties. This is a team that's down a bunch of key starters in the Patriots. It was bad luck. I think DJ Moore got knocked out too early in the game. That hurt them offensively.
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Speaker 3: You know, you still put up 26 points. Your defense just couldn't get stops. And you're right. It felt like when it came to that two-pointer, they didn't get it.
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Speaker 4: It's like, well, we can still maybe get a turnover here, and we still have a chance to kick a field or whatever it was. And instead, Drake May drove the field, scored a touchdown, and got his two-pointer. So really, really impressive win. And, yeah, saved their season, Patriots.
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Speaker 2: It really did save their season. Let's talk about Joe Burrow for.
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Speaker 1: A second because that game– Cincinnati minus two and a half in the beginning, by the way, the Raiders covered, they lost 30 to 27. So thank God for the freaking Raiders and, and, and Kirk cousins who we'll get to. Bengals were so dominant in the opening phases of this game. Joe Burrow, even with Jamar Chase got knocked out early, but Joe Burrow continues to be the issue for this team. Like, Bad pick to Travis Hunter.
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Speaker 2: He got lucky. It was called back.
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Speaker 1: Really bad pick in the fourth quarter, driving for the go-ahead score at like a 10-yard line. Just, he played like Trevor Lawrence used to play.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it was tons of great and then some horrible, horrible plays mixed in, which were like, they shouldn't be killers, but they were so awful.
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Speaker 3: Like you said, he had three picks.
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Speaker 4: They only got two on the record book because one got called back, but Joe played so bad.
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Speaker 3: I mean, it's crazy. Look at the stat box.
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Speaker 4: And it's like, he threw for 400 yards without chase. It's like they were moving the ball up and down the field on the Jaguars, which we thought would happen. They just could not capitalize, kept having stupid turnovers. And, um, yeah, this is another game where you got to give respect to the Jaguars. Like they just are outlasting these types of games. Like they just, you know, chair Lawrence didn't have it today.
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Speaker 3: Right.
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Speaker 4: I think he only threw the ball 23 times. They were really trying to run the ball and just keep away from Joe burrow. And, um, playing it safe the entire game for the jaguars it worked like they really did not do much and they won this game and yeah another game was unfortunate where it's like you know joe's driving we both thought we had a chance to get this backdoor cover and the the bangles had a chance to win the game out right and he just fell apart again at the end so um yeah really impressive win once again for the road team and this jaguars team and just another bad read bad bet by us this bangles team that dominated in the stat.
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Speaker 3: Box, but Joe Burrow burned. Joe Burrow burned us. He really did.
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Speaker 4: Like his turnovers were at the worst times and really flipped the entire game. And it just stinks where the Bengals defense did play well. It doesn't really show up here, right? They lost, gave up 23 points. It doesn't look like they played well, but I do think what you said is true. Like the rest of the team I thought played pretty well. It was just not a great day that Joe should have had overall.
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Speaker 1: Tee Higgins was amazing. Stepped up until he was injured at the end. The Jags had, I think, 10 penalties in the first half, multiple touchdowns called off the board. The Bengals had a touchdown called off the board because of a penalty.
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Speaker 2: They're such an interesting team because Zach Taylor is so uninspired as a coach.
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Speaker 1: And if he doesn't have Joe Burrow saving him, then what does this team have? They're not going to fire him in the middle, Zach Taylor in the middle of the year, but there's just so much sloppiness, undisciplined play, really abhorrent play calling.
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Speaker 2: If Joe Burrow is not really saving his ass, Zach Taylor is, is all of his flaws come out.
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Speaker 3: It's true, but they have so much talent.
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Speaker 4: Like they can be sitting here four and oh, they've just had blown two games in a row. And that's like we said, that's on Joe bro. Like the, it's all his fault. Honestly, they're not four and oh, and you live and die with that as a quarterback. So yeah, that's, that's my issue where it's like coming here, I was very high on this team and it started out good. I mean, they were two and oh, two and oh against us right now, two straight, no covers, two straight, really bad losses.
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Speaker 3: It's, Time to adjust them. You're right.
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Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, just because he plays at a high level for three-fourths of the game, it's those little mistakes, like those picks. You said they're so bad. They're just such bad plays. He has time. People can't keep blaming the line. If you watch that game completely, he had time. Sometimes he had too much time. He didn't know what to do with himself. He just would hold on to the ball for five, six seconds. It's like no line can block for that long. Brutal, brutal, brutal loss here.
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Speaker 1: Uh, we should give our props by the way, we, we jumped off the bills quickly. I do want to give my props, uh, to Keon Coleman, who has been of a punching bag for bills, bills, fans, bills, management bills owner, uh, during his career on one drive. I think he had like a circus catch that kept the drive alive on third and six. Uh, then he scored a touchdown on the very next play. Like he was amazing today. Uh, He just got beat by this ridiculous catch by a backup receiver, one-handed in the end zone. I just forgot to mention that because, you know, there's a lot going on in my head right now. And I'm also trying to read the comments and bring some people in at the same time. But good for Keon Coleman, I guess. Saving his career. What are you laughing at? Are you laughing at comments right now?
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Speaker 3: No, just petering out. Keep it moving. Let's go, Chad. Keep it moving.
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Speaker 2: All right.
00:12:20
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00:13:11
Speaker 1: When you sign up that sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. I want to go to Denver at San Francisco before we dive in on Kirk. The line was Denver plus three and a half, honestly, a great game, like back and forth, back and forth, defensive battle. Both teams were playing really well. Brock Purdy had about a hundred, literally a hundred yards passing. I think by the end of the third quarter, the Broncos offense was, was struggling even against the defensive line for the Niners that had a lot of injuries and no Nick Bosa.
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Speaker 2: It was the Marvin Mims fumble. Like it was three, three.
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Speaker 1: And when that Marvin Mims fumble happened, it just, it deflated everything. I was like, we're going to need miracles here.
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Speaker 3: Yeah. Brutal. Cause it's a judgment call.
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Speaker 4: And even the guy on TV said, you know, I would have called that down by contact, which, what is.
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Speaker 3: The wrist and the forearm start? That's why I hate that call where.
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Speaker 4: If on the field, they called him down by context, then they would have stuck with it, but they called it a fumble on the field. So they're going to stick with that just because it makes them look bad going against their own calls.
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Speaker 3: So brutal.
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Speaker 4: Cause like you said, it's a three, three game. We're getting the ball back on Denver side. They, they couldn't do anything for diners offensively. They rattled off 21 points after that.
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Speaker 3: Right. Like that's, that's a total game changer. Cause it's a backbreaker.
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Speaker 4: Cause it changes the whole game and the whole outcome where, After that, two corners go down for Sertan and Riley Moss.
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Speaker 2: Both went down.
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Speaker 3: And it totally opened up everything. It really did. And we talked about it.
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Speaker 4: It was going to be a game where we knew Denver was going to come out slow, but they've been so well in the second half. And we were both feeling pretty good because, like we said, Bo Nix.
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Speaker 3: Got us there.
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Speaker 4: They got us the back door. We had the cover. 49ers get one or two more first downs.
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Speaker 3: The game's over.
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Speaker 4: They're down two corners, busted coverage. Kittle takes it, what was it, 70 yards for a touchdown?
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Speaker 2: Yeah, ridiculous.
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Speaker 3: Like I keep saying, you want to just keep trust in the process. It hurts.
00:15:12
Speaker 4: It's brutal. It's a bad bet. It's a bad beat. But that's what it's gambling. It's like these stupid things that you've never seen before happen. It just so happens in all these games we keep being involved in. So I couldn't believe it. Like you said, it was the craziest 30 seconds ever. We went from the high of highs, back-to-back two-pointers go our way. to a fumble on a kickoff and a busted 70 yard touchdown by Kittle. Just, just absolutely brutal. But yeah, I, I still think Denver is a really good team. I'm not going to adjust them too much. And 49ers keep surviving all these injuries. I mean, they just, if they could stay healthy, they'd be one of the best teams of football. But even in this game, they just, they had, they had guys drop it. Like Mike Evans playing through all these injuries. Every time he got hit, he was crawling off the field. It's just so many injuries, so many guys on this team.
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Speaker 5: So.
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Speaker 4: I guess you could say as long as Purdy's healthy, as long as McCaffrey's healthy, that offense will keep on humming.
00:16:03
Speaker 3: But, yeah, really insane game.
00:16:05
Speaker 4: Like you said, it's 3-3 at half going our way, and it really flipped on that Mims fumble.
00:16:13
Speaker 1: It was one of those games where you know that as a Broncos backer, you're going to need the lead at some point for it to go your way.
00:16:29
Speaker 2: And the Broncos could afford to.
00:16:33
Speaker 1: Play relatively conservative because their defense had been playing so well. They just needed one play to unlock something, to open it up. And they almost had it, you know, that Pat Bryant play. The poor guy had to be carted off. A couple of players today, Thornton for the Chiefs too, had to be carted off. That Broncos offense is just so it's hard to gauge. I'm curious what's going to happen here because something was not working.
00:17:06
Speaker 3: You know what has to happen. We all know what has to happen.
00:17:08
Speaker 1: Sean Payton has to start calling the plays again.
00:17:10
Speaker 3: He has to.
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Speaker 4: I can't wait to hear what Coward says this week because that's what I always say. It's so telling that he clearly still talks to him. He's giving them opportunities. He's giving them chances here, but we say it every week. Their first half offense is so bad. Now, he does make good adjustments. Their second half offense looks way better, but that's no excuse. Like they're another team that these are losses are piling up. You can't afford these losses in your division. The chiefs haven't lost a game yet. So yeah, it's, I, Sean Payne has been very patient. I think we're, we're reaching ahead here at this point. It's just, you can't let this offense continue.
00:17:45
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Kirk cousins today. Kirk cousins, who was rolling out, right. He was rolling out left. he was throwing across his body, he was rolling out left, throwing across his body, dimes into triple coverage. He had the Raiders on a path to win that game. And I would not have put it past the Raiders if they don't have that fumble on the kickoff after the score by the Chiefs to have had a chance to go down and score a game-winning touchdown there.
00:18:23
Speaker 2: Because....
00:18:25
Speaker 1: He was playing like, you like that, Kirk Cousins? I think he was like 27 of 41 for 311 yards and a touch. He was insane, truly insane today. Kubiak is in his bag with Kirk Cousins, and the Raiders are just a good team. Their defense, they gave up 14 points in the past couple of minutes.
00:18:45
Speaker 2: Or whatever it was, 13 points.
00:18:48
Speaker 1: But that was a heave-ho miracle throw on third and four, all-out blitz. Patrick Mahomes off his back foot to Tiguan Thornton that led to one touchdown and then the fumble to the other. But great defense, great spirit. Loved watching them play. Went exactly like we planned, Simon. It was the one game we were going after each other this morning, and it went exactly like we planned the whole freaking week.
00:19:15
Speaker 2: We're so smart.
00:19:17
Speaker 3: What's it going after you? I was saying how together we were on the game, and we were right.
00:19:21
Speaker 5: Together.
00:19:22
Speaker 3: We were right. I didn't hear a peep from.
00:19:24
Speaker 4: Any of the pundits on this one, but obviously they danced to my.
00:19:27
Speaker 3: Grave on all these other games.
00:19:28
Speaker 2: They danced to both of our graves.
00:19:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, you don't have to hear it as much from these pros. But just the Mahomes, I mean, he's 50% completion percentage in this game. Like it all is going our way. And, you know, Kenneth Walker, he's clearly a difference. He just, you know, at the end of the game, that running touchdown to like put us in our graves we thought um yeah he rushed for 177 two touchdowns kenneth walker this is insane i knew he was gonna be a boost to their offense this is just out of this world how good he is uh they stole this game in so many ways like i just felt like like even you said the defense of the raiders played so well Kirk played so well. It's truly a miracle they didn't win this game. Like, it's just only Mahomes finds a way, like you said, off his back foot, throwing to his third receiver once again.
00:20:21
Speaker 3: Crazy.
00:20:22
Speaker 2: So, brutal.
00:20:23
Speaker 4: We didn't get the win outright. Really needed it. We'll take the cover, obviously. Thank you, Kirk Cousins. I'm just– we were deader than dead. No way he should have drove that field, scored a touchdown, and got the two-pointer. So, very lucky not to be sitting here 0-4. But, like you said, it's brutal not to be 2-2 because– Just the madness end of these games, man. I don't get what's happening with these defenses. They just get into sleep mode and they give up these stupid touchdowns. Raiders giving up 14 like they did at the very end. It looks bad on paper, but they played so well. It shouldn't look like they gave up 30 with the way they played that game. I still think going forward, I still feel like we're going to be very high on this Raiders team who's 4-0 now against the spread this season.
00:21:03
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:21:05
Speaker 1: What a difference between how they play and say, how the Chargers play. The final score in that game, I think it was 30 to 23. The number was seven. Some places got up to seven and a half, but it was never that close. Like that was all garbage time points after Seattle sort of had the game in hand. The Chargers are an embarrassment of a team. I do want to talk about the Eagles for a second. You were at the game. It was a game that we took out at the last second. Because of Lane Johnson, ultimately, we were kind of looking for reasons to take it out.
00:21:40
Speaker 2: It was making us nervous.
00:21:43
Speaker 1: The Eagles looked great. As someone who was there, what do you think went wrong? Because I was watching it, but was so much more focused on Bengals and Jags and Bills and Patriots.
00:21:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was your classic trap game. It was everything we thought it would be. Stafford out in the elements. He couldn't do anything in the first half.
00:22:05
Speaker 3: And the Eagles... kept getting all the breaks.
00:22:07
Speaker 4: And I just, I look at this now and I just think like, okay, if you're, if you're this Eagles team and you lose this type of game, I think it is something you can build on because they were in it. I mean, they really should have won this game in so many ways. And I told you they were over 12 on third downs. So it's like the fact that they put up 20 in the first half and then score a single point in the second half.
00:22:32
Speaker 3: Brutal.
00:22:32
Speaker 4: I mean, it was one of those games too, like, you know, I'm taking a bunch of heat in the stands. Cause I'm telling people that like I'm on the Eagles, but I was like, it's a bad bet. If you have three and a half, I would have only taken four and a half and did not think it was going to matter.
00:22:44
Speaker 3: Really did not.
00:22:45
Speaker 4: I was like, he was going to cover this game no matter what they might lose by field goal, but they'll cover that number. Then you see how the game's going, how the number is breaking. And yeah, I feel sick for everyone that couldn't, they didn't cover the three and a half and the Eagles.
00:22:55
Speaker 3: It's, it's rare.
00:22:57
Speaker 4: You get 20 points in the first half from a team. They score zero at home. So Sirianni, I don't know what they're going to do. Um, Because like we keep saying, it's so early in the year, you try not to overreact to it, right? Once the Eagles get healthy, they'll be a good team. Like they have good coaching, but offensively, something's clearly wrong. And Saquon went out like early in the first.
00:23:15
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:23:17
Speaker 4: Didn't matter, obviously, in the first half, but as the game went along, you didn't have anyone to melt away that clock. And like I said, they didn't score a single point. So the Rams, I mean, you saw McVay. I'm sure you saw him running, skipping. He was literally skipping on the sideline. He was so happy because he never beat the Eagles. He just does not beat the Eagles.
00:23:33
Speaker 3: So.
00:23:34
Speaker 4: Huge, huge win for them where it felt like at 1-3 going home, the Rams season was getting away from them, and this really saved their season, just like it did with the Patriots. It sounds crazy early in the year like this, but the Rams, they were feeling it. You could feel it in the stadium. They were feeling that pressure. So tons of respect to Stafford. He never gave up, hung in there. I mean, he played bad. I'd have to look it up. He had two picks, but ended up throwing for 300 yards. They found a way, and, yeah, it's– It's bad. That Eagles stadium, the walkout was just awful. By the time we were 0-2 in our contest, I basically had lost every game other than the Bears. I was just like, my God, this is not the way to start your day. Right now, this Eagles team, I just hope they get healthy. The Rams, I still think they're a little overrated, Chad. It's going to be interesting to see what their number is next.
00:24:22
Speaker 3: Week on them.
00:24:26
Speaker 1: Pukunukuwa made a huge difference. There were just a couple plays where even he had I think I'm going to touchdown run that he had. It was a bad handoff. He bobbled the ball. He was still able to gather it. He had another long play down the field. That was a miracle catch. What a game where Devante Adams and Matthew Stafford were just a little bit off in the entire game. What a difference Puka Nakua made in that game, especially down the stretch. Like it was an impressive win by the Rams because they got dominated by so badly. And they should have lost that game in every way. And I think you're right. They were feeling it. They knew they had to get out of there two and two. If not, all of a sudden that preseason plus 400 bet we made on the Rams to miss the Super Bowl, to miss the playoffs, all of a sudden.
00:25:13
Speaker 2: It starts to look really, really good. You mentioned the Bears. I'll just say Tyson Bajent, right called.
00:25:25
Speaker 1: Looks so comfortable. That game was closer than it needed to be. The Bears should have won that game by 35 points. He had a couple bad throws, but he was just dialed in, and that team looked really, really good. And they made Geno Smith, who's played really well this year, and probably had– you had mentioned a lot.
00:25:44
Speaker 2: You were on the Bears.
00:25:45
Speaker 1: A lot of people come in on the Jets from the professional side because Geno Smith had been making teams look pretty bad defensively. So kudos to the Bears who just manhandled Geno Smith.
00:25:59
Speaker 3: Once again, though, should they pay Caleb?
00:26:02
Speaker 4: Because as much as you want to give the quarterback props, they had 54 carries for 232 yards.
00:26:08
Speaker 2: Totally.
00:26:10
Speaker 3: The system is what it is. It really is.
00:26:13
Speaker 4: So they have such a major decision to make because you can use that money to build the offensive line out. You can use it to get two running backs, which they have right now, right? Because Caleb's on a rookie contract. So I just love the idea of Ben Johnson being not fully committed.
00:26:28
Speaker 3: To to a future of Caleb where it really is.
00:26:31
Speaker 4: If Caleb doesn't show out these next two years, I do trust Ben will move on to someone else. Cause it's just this offense, this scheme, even today, like they didn't have it going right away. They had some things like, I think they got stuffed to the one seven straight times that a touchdown overturned. It was all going against them. Ben kept running the ball. He never stopped running the ball. It's just, if you're a fan of the team, it's so impressive where he doesn't go away from who he is.
00:26:54
Speaker 3: He never changes. And yeah, but none guy 30 carries. I mean, it's any given day. Yeah.
00:27:02
Speaker 4: Any given day it's him or Swift. It's whoever has the hot hand, he feeds them. And, um, yeah, this bears team, when we talk coming to the air, it's like, you expect the downturn this season.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: I mean, it's, it feels right.
00:27:13
Speaker 4: The point now, if Caleb comes back and he's playing well, they could easily be at one seat. Like they just have so much talent offensively. So yeah, really impressive win by the bears.
00:27:22
Speaker 1: The other game we should mention is Miami, uh, We liked Miami all week. We were both on Miami. It had gone in the direction of Miami. It moved from 11.5 down to 9.5. Did not have the courage of our convictions to put them back in the contest like we did last week. It would have made a difference because they would have replaced the Eagles and or Buffalo.
00:27:48
Speaker 2: So that's a bummer.
00:27:50
Speaker 1: But it's still one of those things where you're gambling because we were going to lose that game if TJ Hawkinson doesn't go down on the one-yard line, when he's got a clear path to the end zone to put them up by 12, he just takes a knee or takes a tushy.
00:28:07
Speaker 3: A ton of luck.
00:28:08
Speaker 4: That's why I try to tell people not to get too high or too low about this stuff. It really is that stupid sometimes that a guy catches a wide-open walking touchdown, he takes it right down to the one or the two and kneels down. I feel like everything we said was true. Kyler still is not comfortable yet on this offense. I think he figured it out, though, that TJ Oxton is just a go-to guy for him. If there's no Justin Jefferson, use your stud tight end. Miami on the flip side, they had a touchdown called back once again. This is back-to-back weeks. They had touchdowns called back. This is another game they easily could have won. I mean, they didn't give up a touchdown.
00:28:40
Speaker 3: The Vikings kicked all field goals. Brutal.
00:28:45
Speaker 4: Brutal is something that keeps back this Miami team where it's like people are just going to keep disrespecting them. They're going to think they got lucky here once again, but it's like As lucky as they did get at the end, they had so much bad luck in this game. Stupid things go against them. They should have always covered this number. So, yeah, really impressive win by the Vikings, though, once again.
00:29:01
Speaker 2: 4-0. Yeah, the Vikings offense is truly dreadful.
00:29:09
Speaker 1: They really can't get anything done.
00:29:11
Speaker 2: What's interesting about the Dolphins is you.
00:29:13
Speaker 1: Do feel like they need a miracle fluke to score a touchdown in any game. They're not going to have sustained drives. It's how it happened today, right? The play that was called back was a fluky touchdown play, but it got called back. The play they scored on was a fluky touchdown play that they actually scored on. They're not going to have sustained drives where they can close someone out. It's going to be... from some Malik Willis broken play.
00:29:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's because Malik Willis isn't consistent. You never know with day-to-day what kind of game you're going to get from him. I think he had 17 pass attempts.
00:29:52
Speaker 3: He completed nine. That's a full game. That's what I mean. Like you said, if you're third and seven, third and eight, you feel like you're dead with Miami.
00:30:01
Speaker 4: That's it's brutal, but we keep talking about, they're a team that keeps fighting. So maybe later in the year, once they give up, there'll be an easy fade for them. But as you sit here right now, I know next week, I'm going to like them again. Cause it's just, no one's been in there getting a ton of free points here. I mean, they covered by five points.
00:30:14
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:30:15
Speaker 4: Like we said, though, they should have got backdoored, but it is what it is. When you look at the results where it's like, this team has been in all these games, they have, they've not really been blown, blown out as bad as they've looked.
00:30:25
Speaker 3: So, you're right. It's, it's a shame we passed on it.
00:30:28
Speaker 4: Like that we debated between them and the bills for closing time this morning. You know, it's going to cost us a winning week. So it's, it's, it's pretty brutal.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Uh, we are on Carolina tonight. Um, we are on Atlanta in the contest tomorrow night. We are one in three through the four games today. Simon, uh, Before we go on to Hero of the Week and, you know, Shame of the Week, anything to add about Carolina tonight? We've been on it, but still nervous about it because of injuries. I haven't bought out of my bet. The line has moved against us from earlier in the week. But I'm still not loving backing Jared Goff outside, and I still do like backing a Carolina Panthers team that can move the ball and is going to have to score every time, whether they've got you know, their top cornerbacks in the game or not.
00:31:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's all we're hoping for. Usually, in this spot, we back the Panthers, and they do put up the points. And we've seen this year, they're able to move the ball. Can they be consistent in their red zone? We know the Lions, I mean, they absolutely score when they get in the red zone. So, we're obviously hoping on a little bit of weather here, but like you said, the Lions got against us up to four and a half at a lot of shops now. So, if you didn't bet it, I'd still grab it, but it's also a game where if you want to wait and see if the Lions drive the field and score an opening touchdown, then You have seven and a half on Carolina.
00:31:56
Speaker 3: So you're not missing anything. We're not bending now. But I would grab it just in case Carolina gets the ball and they drive the field and score.
00:32:03
Speaker 2: Hero of the week, Simon.
00:32:04
Speaker 3: There's no doubt. It's got to be Kirk, right? He saved our day.
00:32:07
Speaker 4: He just drove the field, scored the touchdown, and got the two-pointer. So, yeah, we've already talked enough about this Raiders team after we love them. But, yeah, Kirk, by far, my hero of the week.
00:32:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's no-brainer. Kirk Cousins, hero of the week.
00:32:24
Speaker 1: Shame on you, I'm waffling between a couple different ones who were extraordinarily shameful. So I'll let you start. I'm curious to know where your head is at on this one.
00:32:46
Speaker 4: Gotta be Bill's defense. Shame on you, Buffalo Bill's defense. My God, I can't believe they let Drake May do that to him. How many times do they have him in third and ten, third and eight, and let him usually lose his legs or he would pass for it? It was just they had him so many times they should have blown this team out. They just felt like they were so much better. But Drake just stepped up to the plate. So shame on you, Bills defense. I just thought they were– they had him. I mean, they had a couple strip sacks too. Like they were in his face.
00:33:12
Speaker 3: They had him.
00:33:14
Speaker 4: And that's secondary for the Bills just to not show up in the second half. So it's going to be another year. It's all on Josh Allen for that Bills team. That's what it feels like.
00:33:21
Speaker 1: My shame on you came down to two different– selections. The first one was going to be Joe Burrow. I do think he lost that game for them. Jamar Chase, obviously leaving the game early has a huge impact on what you were planning to do and how they can defend you. But he was still throwing really well to Tee Higgins. But to your point earlier, so many plays where he was running around in the pocket, holding onto the ball too long, where he was And then the interceptions were just, you're going to be Joe Burrow. You're going to get the accolades. You're going to get the commercials. You're going to get the glory. You can't be throwing interceptions right to guys who you're not paying attention to when you're driving for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter, when you've had no reason to be in that game. That is truly shameful. But I'm going outside our final five. It's the Houston Texans defense. This defense that had dominated in the first half, they had Dak Prescott in third and long, third and long, third and long. Then they had multiple times on the goal line, fourth down, where they had penalties that kept the drive alive for the Cowboys. And then in the second half, they just give up touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. Javante Williams had three touchdowns. CJ Stroud was not the problem in this game. The problem in this game is that the Texas defense at the end of the game let Dak Prescott run all over them.
00:34:52
Speaker 2: And C.D.
00:34:53
Speaker 1: Lamb get 17 catches for 189 yards. This is supposed to be one of the best defenses with Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr.
00:35:06
Speaker 2: And Lassiter.
00:35:06
Speaker 1: Freaking embarrassing what they did at the end of the game. So shame on you, Houston Texans. It's the second time in their four-game losing streak to start the season where they had the game, C.J. did his job, And they let a quarterback drive down the field and beat them. They're not supposed to lose on defense. Shame on you.
00:35:29
Speaker 2: Simon, we got some early leans here. Right away, you mentioned the Dolphins.
00:35:35
Speaker 1: Dolphins are currently seven and a half point home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. What's truly unfair isn't that we can't ever just choose a game where it's a blowout. is every single week it's a game with a team that, like, we're so interested in from the week before.
00:35:58
Speaker 2: And this time it's two, Miami and Cincinnati.
00:36:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be a crazy week because I already have a bunch of lines I already love and I've already bet.
00:36:10
Speaker 3: So, like, it's going to be an interesting week.
00:36:11
Speaker 4: We usually chill out a little bit, especially after a rough week, but it's like so many lines are just popping out right now that, you know, we could start with like an easy one right away. You can get the Seahawks right now, minus two and a half at poly market against the 49ers at home. Like I just, is this not peak hype 49ers?
00:36:34
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:36:34
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's another, we know the Seahawks defense matches up well against the 49ers. We had the evidence from last season. So I still think the Seahawks are really sloppy today. Like it's a lot just because they won. I don't feel like the Seahawks are going to treat it as a win. They were so sloppy today. The 49ers are going to be riding high of high. So that was a number that jumped out right away. You can hedge against our Atlanta bet. The Saints right now, they're plus one and a half against Minnesota. So if the Saints do come out and they win, you could get them. Before they move, they'll be in a favorite against the Minnesota Vikings because that's another team where it's like the Vikings, who's taking an option on them? They've looked so poor offensively. I'm shocked they're favorites on the road against the Saints team. Um, that was just a line that jumped right away.
00:37:17
Speaker 2: That was, by the.
00:37:19
Speaker 1: Way, the very first one I wrote down when we came on it on the air, it was plus two.
00:37:25
Speaker 3: Right.
00:37:27
Speaker 4: Um, bears are minus one and a half against green Bay. Is that not the fishiest line of the week?
00:37:33
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:37:34
Speaker 2: I looked at that and I thought, what am I missing?
00:37:36
Speaker 3: What are we missing? So that's when I'll be patient.
00:37:38
Speaker 4: Cause that should, like, even before he came on there, like that's a number I thought would be minus three. And it's like, okay, we'll debate taking green Bay. And minus one and a half, early number.
00:37:47
Speaker 3: I'll grab that right now. I'll grab it right now.
00:37:51
Speaker 4: Even watching Green Bay today, they just look so poorly coached.
00:37:55
Speaker 3: The penalties, all of them.
00:37:56
Speaker 4: I mean, Tampa had an undrafted rookie quarterback almost winning that game with all these awful turnovers. So I was shocked by that opening line. A lot of respect to the Packers. Another one that jumps out right away. We talk about how much we love them. They're giving us the hook right now with Vegas. Vegas is plus three and a half against the Patriots at Polymarket.
00:38:17
Speaker 3: Yeah. So that's another one where it's like me and Chad can't help ourselves.
00:38:21
Speaker 4: I know for a fact we'll come in on Tuesday and we'll both want to bet that one. It's just the Raiders have been covering machines. So I'll try to be patient there because the books know what they're doing. Like they know everyone's been covering with Vegas and everyone's going to be taking Vegas once again. So I don't really get the hook. To me, they could open this at plus three and they would get pretty even action here. They're clearly taking a stance on the Patriots. with that opening number. And one more dog we love that's been good to us, the Browns, plus two, plus one and a half at the Jets. Do we finally jump off the Browns ship?
00:38:55
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:38:57
Speaker 2: Dude, I thought you were going to say you wanted to be on the Browns here. And I'm like.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: No, but they're trying to entice you in with that number.
00:39:04
Speaker 5: I know.
00:39:04
Speaker 1: I know.
00:39:05
Speaker 2: And I'm like, I don't know about that.
00:39:07
Speaker 1: But to me, the one thing I would ask is, Geno's health because he got banged up in that game.
00:39:15
Speaker 2: And there were moments where he looked like he might have to come out.
00:39:18
Speaker 1: He had a pretty bad, it looked like he was flexing his hand a lot and we don't know about Brees Hall. So I do think that made a huge difference in this game, not having Brees Hall.
00:39:29
Speaker 2: So the, are the two things.
00:39:30
Speaker 1: When I looked at that number, I'm like, I want to grab it. And then I was thinking about Geno and not knowing what's going to be happening.
00:39:37
Speaker 4: So the biggest line to me about injuries is Lamar.
00:39:39
Speaker 3: We don't know Lamar's status yet. He didn't play the second half against Tennessee.
00:39:43
Speaker 4: Right.
00:39:44
Speaker 3: They are minus three and a half right now at Atlanta. So if you want to take a position on Atlanta, once again, I'm on Atlanta.
00:39:50
Speaker 4: I'm going to take a position there because if Atlanta wins, right, which I think they will against the Saints, this number potentially could be two and a half. And then if Lamar comes out, he's not playing, this could flip, and Atlanta could be favored. So just another one I'll take an early position on. And the last two, because I know we're going to be talking a lot about these games. I just want people to grab them now. You can get Arizona Cardinals plus six or plus five and a half against Detroit at home.
00:40:15
Speaker 3: That's another one.
00:40:16
Speaker 4: Shouldn't we just grab this now in case they lose to the Panthers tonight or don't cover? Because this could easily be three and a half if they don't win or cover. And the last one is the Bills. The Bills play on Monday night at the Rams. Josh Allen has a dog plus two and a half. They're begging you. They're begging you to take Josh Allen right here. So that's just a line I'm not betting yet. Just be careful, people. My early read would be take the number. Because like I said, I watched the Rams in person today. they have a lot of weaknesses you can exploit offensively. So yeah, I just, I couldn't believe that one open. I thought it'd be a pick them there. They're clearly taking a stand. The sports books open up. Josh Allen is a big dog.
00:40:55
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:40:56
Speaker 2: I was shocked by that. Completely shocked.
00:40:59
Speaker 1: I think you hit every game that I was looking at. New Orleans was a plus two when we went on the air. I'm only seeing Seattle minus three and then three and a half at the prediction markets. So it's probably money already moving Seattle. The Raiders plus three and a half was interesting. Atlanta, Arizona plus six, not a great day for the Cardinals today.
00:41:29
Speaker 2: No, not at all. And yeah, the Bills plus two and a half.
00:41:34
Speaker 1: I'm like, that feels like someone's giving the Rams a little bit too much credit. But we thought the same thing this week about the Rams.
00:41:42
Speaker 2: So maybe we just don't have the Rams.
00:41:44
Speaker 4: But you can do the same thing, which is like I tell people, if you're squeamish about these teams against the Rams, just tease them up. You're getting plus numbers. So once like Eagles, they covered in the teaser, same thing. You're getting Josh Allen right now, plus eight and a half. So, you know, if you want to find like a match of the take with that, if you want to think the Bengals are going to bounce back, be Miami. He's down the Bengals to pair him with Josh Allen. Like there's just, Houston's at Tennessee. If you think Houston's finally going to win, they're six and a half.
00:42:11
Speaker 3: Tease them down. Pair them with the Bills. When we get off this call, that's what I'm going to be doing here.
00:42:15
Speaker 4: I'm going to be betting a lot of early numbers just in case that number goes from two and a half down to one and a half.
00:42:20
Speaker 3: Now we're down to seven and a half on teasers. That's just my whole point.
00:42:23
Speaker 4: You try to get to eight and a half now, it's a nice position to be on because later in the week, me and Chad are sitting here and 90% of the bets are on the Bills. We have to take the Rams. We have to ride with the books on that position. That's why it's If I can hit that middle, I'll do.
00:42:38
Speaker 3: That with the bills. Cause I'm with you. I'm something's fishy about it.
00:42:40
Speaker 4: I don't want to take the two and a half, but I'm definitely going to tease the bills up as we sit here right now.
00:42:46
Speaker 2: All right. That's our show.
00:42:47
Speaker 1: Like I said, we're sitting at one and three. We need the Falcons to cover plus two and a half Monday night football. We will return Tuesday with our week five betting preview. This has been sharper square sponsored by poly market. Part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharper square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
00:43:17
Speaker 5: I've had ups and downs. Don't worry about it. I'll get over it, but not really. Everything's cool. I'll be back. The emotion and the burning desire that I have inside me right now will continue.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, brought to you by Polymarket.
00:00:05
Speaker 2: We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
00:00:07
Speaker 1: This is the betting show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention.
00:00:13
Speaker 2: I am Chad Millman.
00:00:14
Speaker 1: I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter.
00:00:26
Speaker 2: Hello, Simon.
00:00:29
Speaker 3: Chad, how we doing?
00:00:33
Speaker 2: I think we've talked about this a lot on the show.
00:00:37
Speaker 1: One of my least favorite moments of the week is when I have to walk up the steps to the third floor here in my house where we shoot this show on Sunday nights. It's the end of a long day. It's usually dark. I got to turn on the lights. Something will have gone wrong because we can't ever just have an easy day. I turned off the television on the second floor of my house after the Chiefs had missed a two-point conversion and the Broncos had made a two-point conversion. And with little time left, we were covering both of those games. By the time I sat down, before I even turned on my camera, we were down by double digits in both games. That's how quickly... These things change. We're freaking gambling today. Full day of gambling. Just everything was the roller coaster of gambling.
00:01:37
Speaker 3: Yeah. Really fun day. And, uh, obviously it hurts when it doesn't work out for us.
00:01:41
Speaker 4: Like you said, it's in a two and two ends one in three, another losing week, brutal, but, um, it's why we love it. It's just nothing gets you more into the games and we're excited. The more the ups and downs, it's the roller coaster.
00:01:53
Speaker 3: And, uh, Yeah, it hurts.
00:01:55
Speaker 4: As someone that sat through an Eagles game in person today, it was a painful, long, slow death today.
00:02:00
Speaker 3: And I thought our luck had turned right there at the end.
00:02:03
Speaker 4: But like you said, those 30 seconds were just such a killer. So another brutal day.
00:02:08
Speaker 2: Well, look, it was also exemplified in the early games, right?
00:02:16
Speaker 1: If you had told me in the final moments of the witching hour, we would have Josh Allen driving, needing a touchdown and a two-point conversion to get us the cover. We would have the Houston Texans allegedly vaunted defense just needing to stop the Cowboys one more time. And we needed Joe Burrow to drive down the field, score a touchdown, and get a two-point conversion when they had all the momentum. I would have been like, maybe Maybe one of those things, maybe two of those things, because we're gambling.
00:02:57
Speaker 2: What happened? None of those things happened.
00:03:02
Speaker 3: None of them happened. And I was watching literally on my phone in the stadium.
00:03:06
Speaker 4: I don't know if they have Starlink, whatever it is, the Wi-Fi now is just so great at these stadiums where you can literally watch Red Zone on your phone. But Eagles didn't score a single point in the second half. And I think we're over 12 on third downs. Franchise, record, which is not something to be proud.
00:03:21
Speaker 3: Of in any way.
00:03:23
Speaker 4: But I was watching a lot of the red zone, obviously, um, cause the game was so terrible. And like you said, everything, the 1pm was going wrong for us. And then all of a sudden Rams came back. I also lost my Eagles, but it was just absolutely brutal. But, um, like we say all the time, though, it's, it's, you tried to overreact. Yeah. You tried to overreact too much to it, but, um, Joe Burrow, he had opportunities, burned us.
00:03:47
Speaker 3: The bills had opportunities. Drake may display better. And, same for the Eagles.
00:03:51
Speaker 4: They had opportunities and Matthew Stafford played better. So it's as much as I want to say, Oh, we deserve those covers. It's like we had our opportunities, but those teams all played so poorly. They deserve to lose and not cover. So that bad reads.
00:04:04
Speaker 1: Nobody deserves anything. We had a spirited debate this morning. Last game in was Buffalo minus six and a half. We were, we both loved Miami. We loved Miami all week as double digit dogs. And we, Just didn't have the courage to put them in because we were afraid of audience revolt. Maybe there's more audience revolt if we just straight up lose than if we ask them to lose games with bad teams.
00:04:30
Speaker 2: We took out Philly with the lose of Lane Johnson's injury.
00:04:34
Speaker 1: This is our Sunday night week four reaction show. We're going to recap the misery of the day from our final five picks and our sharper square $ 25, 000. Pro Football Pick'em Contest. First game up, Simon. Let's talk about New England at Buffalo, minus six and a half. The Bills gave up a very easy drive to start the game for the Patriots. But then Josh Allen went nine for 10. So I stupidly bet Bills live just to win outright. Drake May fumbled on the next drive. In the final minute of the first half, there were five possessions, multiple turnovers. And the Bills are up 17-14. I'm like, all right, we're going to come back. Everything's going to be settled. Josh Allen will recalibrate. It did not go that way. It did not go that way.
00:05:28
Speaker 3: No, but hats off to Drake May. It was a great Drake May game.
00:05:30
Speaker 2: He was great.
00:05:32
Speaker 4: Once again, didn't have his best game, like was below, I think, 6% completion percentage. But on third downs, when he needed to make the big-time throws, he did. And when they got in the red zone, they scored touchdowns.
00:05:42
Speaker 3: You can't say the same for the Bills.
00:05:43
Speaker 4: So, yeah, like in a game where it was all there, you know, Drake May was begging to lose it.
00:05:51
Speaker 3: Like he threw that really bad pick.
00:05:54
Speaker 2: Begging.
00:05:55
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:05:56
Speaker 4: He gave up a fumble when he got strip sacked. And there was just different opportunities for the Bills to capitalize. But Patriots saved their season.
00:06:03
Speaker 3: They hung in.
00:06:04
Speaker 4: And, you know, we talked. That flips their season, right? They go from being one and three in a total hole. Now they're 2-2, and they're only one back or half a game back of the Bills. It's a really, really impressive win for the Patriots, which felt like a really bad spot. They found a way to make it work, and you said it. The defense of the Bills just struggled. They had bad penalties. This is a team that's down a bunch of key starters in the Patriots. It was bad luck. I think DJ Moore got knocked out too early in the game. That hurt them offensively.
00:06:40
Speaker 3: You know, you still put up 26 points. Your defense just couldn't get stops. And you're right. It felt like when it came to that two-pointer, they didn't get it.
00:06:46
Speaker 4: It's like, well, we can still maybe get a turnover here, and we still have a chance to kick a field or whatever it was. And instead, Drake May drove the field, scored a touchdown, and got his two-pointer. So really, really impressive win. And, yeah, saved their season, Patriots.
00:07:00
Speaker 2: It really did save their season. Let's talk about Joe Burrow for.
00:07:06
Speaker 1: A second because that game– Cincinnati minus two and a half in the beginning, by the way, the Raiders covered, they lost 30 to 27. So thank God for the freaking Raiders and, and, and Kirk cousins who we'll get to. Bengals were so dominant in the opening phases of this game. Joe Burrow, even with Jamar Chase got knocked out early, but Joe Burrow continues to be the issue for this team. Like, Bad pick to Travis Hunter.
00:07:42
Speaker 2: He got lucky. It was called back.
00:07:44
Speaker 1: Really bad pick in the fourth quarter, driving for the go-ahead score at like a 10-yard line. Just, he played like Trevor Lawrence used to play.
00:07:56
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was tons of great and then some horrible, horrible plays mixed in, which were like, they shouldn't be killers, but they were so awful.
00:08:03
Speaker 3: Like you said, he had three picks.
00:08:05
Speaker 4: They only got two on the record book because one got called back, but Joe played so bad.
00:08:09
Speaker 3: I mean, it's crazy. Look at the stat box.
00:08:11
Speaker 4: And it's like, he threw for 400 yards without chase. It's like they were moving the ball up and down the field on the Jaguars, which we thought would happen. They just could not capitalize, kept having stupid turnovers. And, um, yeah, this is another game where you got to give respect to the Jaguars. Like they just are outlasting these types of games. Like they just, you know, chair Lawrence didn't have it today.
00:08:30
Speaker 3: Right.
00:08:30
Speaker 4: I think he only threw the ball 23 times. They were really trying to run the ball and just keep away from Joe burrow. And, um, playing it safe the entire game for the jaguars it worked like they really did not do much and they won this game and yeah another game was unfortunate where it's like you know joe's driving we both thought we had a chance to get this backdoor cover and the the bangles had a chance to win the game out right and he just fell apart again at the end so um yeah really impressive win once again for the road team and this jaguars team and just another bad read bad bet by us this bangles team that dominated in the stat.
00:09:04
Speaker 3: Box, but Joe Burrow burned. Joe Burrow burned us. He really did.
00:09:07
Speaker 4: Like his turnovers were at the worst times and really flipped the entire game. And it just stinks where the Bengals defense did play well. It doesn't really show up here, right? They lost, gave up 23 points. It doesn't look like they played well, but I do think what you said is true. Like the rest of the team I thought played pretty well. It was just not a great day that Joe should have had overall.
00:09:26
Speaker 1: Tee Higgins was amazing. Stepped up until he was injured at the end. The Jags had, I think, 10 penalties in the first half, multiple touchdowns called off the board. The Bengals had a touchdown called off the board because of a penalty.
00:09:47
Speaker 2: They're such an interesting team because Zach Taylor is so uninspired as a coach.
00:09:55
Speaker 1: And if he doesn't have Joe Burrow saving him, then what does this team have? They're not going to fire him in the middle, Zach Taylor in the middle of the year, but there's just so much sloppiness, undisciplined play, really abhorrent play calling.
00:10:14
Speaker 2: If Joe Burrow is not really saving his ass, Zach Taylor is, is all of his flaws come out.
00:10:25
Speaker 3: It's true, but they have so much talent.
00:10:26
Speaker 4: Like they can be sitting here four and oh, they've just had blown two games in a row. And that's like we said, that's on Joe bro. Like the, it's all his fault. Honestly, they're not four and oh, and you live and die with that as a quarterback. So yeah, that's, that's my issue where it's like coming here, I was very high on this team and it started out good. I mean, they were two and oh, two and oh against us right now, two straight, no covers, two straight, really bad losses.
00:10:49
Speaker 3: It's, Time to adjust them. You're right.
00:10:52
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow, just because he plays at a high level for three-fourths of the game, it's those little mistakes, like those picks. You said they're so bad. They're just such bad plays. He has time. People can't keep blaming the line. If you watch that game completely, he had time. Sometimes he had too much time. He didn't know what to do with himself. He just would hold on to the ball for five, six seconds. It's like no line can block for that long. Brutal, brutal, brutal loss here.
00:11:19
Speaker 1: Uh, we should give our props by the way, we, we jumped off the bills quickly. I do want to give my props, uh, to Keon Coleman, who has been of a punching bag for bills, bills, fans, bills, management bills owner, uh, during his career on one drive. I think he had like a circus catch that kept the drive alive on third and six. Uh, then he scored a touchdown on the very next play. Like he was amazing today. Uh, He just got beat by this ridiculous catch by a backup receiver, one-handed in the end zone. I just forgot to mention that because, you know, there's a lot going on in my head right now. And I'm also trying to read the comments and bring some people in at the same time. But good for Keon Coleman, I guess. Saving his career. What are you laughing at? Are you laughing at comments right now?
00:12:12
Speaker 3: No, just petering out. Keep it moving. Let's go, Chad. Keep it moving.
00:12:19
Speaker 2: All right.
00:12:20
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00:13:06
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00:13:11
Speaker 1: When you sign up that sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. I want to go to Denver at San Francisco before we dive in on Kirk. The line was Denver plus three and a half, honestly, a great game, like back and forth, back and forth, defensive battle. Both teams were playing really well. Brock Purdy had about a hundred, literally a hundred yards passing. I think by the end of the third quarter, the Broncos offense was, was struggling even against the defensive line for the Niners that had a lot of injuries and no Nick Bosa.
00:13:46
Speaker 2: It was the Marvin Mims fumble. Like it was three, three.
00:13:49
Speaker 1: And when that Marvin Mims fumble happened, it just, it deflated everything. I was like, we're going to need miracles here.
00:13:59
Speaker 3: Yeah. Brutal. Cause it's a judgment call.
00:14:01
Speaker 4: And even the guy on TV said, you know, I would have called that down by contact, which, what is.
00:14:07
Speaker 3: The wrist and the forearm start? That's why I hate that call where.
00:14:10
Speaker 4: If on the field, they called him down by context, then they would have stuck with it, but they called it a fumble on the field. So they're going to stick with that just because it makes them look bad going against their own calls.
00:14:18
Speaker 3: So brutal.
00:14:20
Speaker 4: Cause like you said, it's a three, three game. We're getting the ball back on Denver side. They, they couldn't do anything for diners offensively. They rattled off 21 points after that.
00:14:29
Speaker 3: Right. Like that's, that's a total game changer. Cause it's a backbreaker.
00:14:32
Speaker 4: Cause it changes the whole game and the whole outcome where, After that, two corners go down for Sertan and Riley Moss.
00:14:40
Speaker 2: Both went down.
00:14:41
Speaker 3: And it totally opened up everything. It really did. And we talked about it.
00:14:47
Speaker 4: It was going to be a game where we knew Denver was going to come out slow, but they've been so well in the second half. And we were both feeling pretty good because, like we said, Bo Nix.
00:14:55
Speaker 3: Got us there.
00:14:56
Speaker 4: They got us the back door. We had the cover. 49ers get one or two more first downs.
00:15:00
Speaker 3: The game's over.
00:15:02
Speaker 4: They're down two corners, busted coverage. Kittle takes it, what was it, 70 yards for a touchdown?
00:15:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, ridiculous.
00:15:08
Speaker 3: Like I keep saying, you want to just keep trust in the process. It hurts.
00:15:12
Speaker 4: It's brutal. It's a bad bet. It's a bad beat. But that's what it's gambling. It's like these stupid things that you've never seen before happen. It just so happens in all these games we keep being involved in. So I couldn't believe it. Like you said, it was the craziest 30 seconds ever. We went from the high of highs, back-to-back two-pointers go our way. to a fumble on a kickoff and a busted 70 yard touchdown by Kittle. Just, just absolutely brutal. But yeah, I, I still think Denver is a really good team. I'm not going to adjust them too much. And 49ers keep surviving all these injuries. I mean, they just, if they could stay healthy, they'd be one of the best teams of football. But even in this game, they just, they had, they had guys drop it. Like Mike Evans playing through all these injuries. Every time he got hit, he was crawling off the field. It's just so many injuries, so many guys on this team.
00:15:58
Speaker 5: So.
00:15:59
Speaker 4: I guess you could say as long as Purdy's healthy, as long as McCaffrey's healthy, that offense will keep on humming.
00:16:03
Speaker 3: But, yeah, really insane game.
00:16:05
Speaker 4: Like you said, it's 3-3 at half going our way, and it really flipped on that Mims fumble.
00:16:13
Speaker 1: It was one of those games where you know that as a Broncos backer, you're going to need the lead at some point for it to go your way.
00:16:29
Speaker 2: And the Broncos could afford to.
00:16:33
Speaker 1: Play relatively conservative because their defense had been playing so well. They just needed one play to unlock something, to open it up. And they almost had it, you know, that Pat Bryant play. The poor guy had to be carted off. A couple of players today, Thornton for the Chiefs too, had to be carted off. That Broncos offense is just so it's hard to gauge. I'm curious what's going to happen here because something was not working.
00:17:06
Speaker 3: You know what has to happen. We all know what has to happen.
00:17:08
Speaker 1: Sean Payton has to start calling the plays again.
00:17:10
Speaker 3: He has to.
00:17:12
Speaker 4: I can't wait to hear what Coward says this week because that's what I always say. It's so telling that he clearly still talks to him. He's giving them opportunities. He's giving them chances here, but we say it every week. Their first half offense is so bad. Now, he does make good adjustments. Their second half offense looks way better, but that's no excuse. Like they're another team that these are losses are piling up. You can't afford these losses in your division. The chiefs haven't lost a game yet. So yeah, it's, I, Sean Payne has been very patient. I think we're, we're reaching ahead here at this point. It's just, you can't let this offense continue.
00:17:45
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Kirk cousins today. Kirk cousins, who was rolling out, right. He was rolling out left. he was throwing across his body, he was rolling out left, throwing across his body, dimes into triple coverage. He had the Raiders on a path to win that game. And I would not have put it past the Raiders if they don't have that fumble on the kickoff after the score by the Chiefs to have had a chance to go down and score a game-winning touchdown there.
00:18:23
Speaker 2: Because....
00:18:25
Speaker 1: He was playing like, you like that, Kirk Cousins? I think he was like 27 of 41 for 311 yards and a touch. He was insane, truly insane today. Kubiak is in his bag with Kirk Cousins, and the Raiders are just a good team. Their defense, they gave up 14 points in the past couple of minutes.
00:18:45
Speaker 2: Or whatever it was, 13 points.
00:18:48
Speaker 1: But that was a heave-ho miracle throw on third and four, all-out blitz. Patrick Mahomes off his back foot to Tiguan Thornton that led to one touchdown and then the fumble to the other. But great defense, great spirit. Loved watching them play. Went exactly like we planned, Simon. It was the one game we were going after each other this morning, and it went exactly like we planned the whole freaking week.
00:19:15
Speaker 2: We're so smart.
00:19:17
Speaker 3: What's it going after you? I was saying how together we were on the game, and we were right.
00:19:21
Speaker 5: Together.
00:19:22
Speaker 3: We were right. I didn't hear a peep from.
00:19:24
Speaker 4: Any of the pundits on this one, but obviously they danced to my.
00:19:27
Speaker 3: Grave on all these other games.
00:19:28
Speaker 2: They danced to both of our graves.
00:19:31
Speaker 4: Yeah, you don't have to hear it as much from these pros. But just the Mahomes, I mean, he's 50% completion percentage in this game. Like it all is going our way. And, you know, Kenneth Walker, he's clearly a difference. He just, you know, at the end of the game, that running touchdown to like put us in our graves we thought um yeah he rushed for 177 two touchdowns kenneth walker this is insane i knew he was gonna be a boost to their offense this is just out of this world how good he is uh they stole this game in so many ways like i just felt like like even you said the defense of the raiders played so well Kirk played so well. It's truly a miracle they didn't win this game. Like, it's just only Mahomes finds a way, like you said, off his back foot, throwing to his third receiver once again.
00:20:21
Speaker 3: Crazy.
00:20:22
Speaker 2: So, brutal.
00:20:23
Speaker 4: We didn't get the win outright. Really needed it. We'll take the cover, obviously. Thank you, Kirk Cousins. I'm just– we were deader than dead. No way he should have drove that field, scored a touchdown, and got the two-pointer. So, very lucky not to be sitting here 0-4. But, like you said, it's brutal not to be 2-2 because– Just the madness end of these games, man. I don't get what's happening with these defenses. They just get into sleep mode and they give up these stupid touchdowns. Raiders giving up 14 like they did at the very end. It looks bad on paper, but they played so well. It shouldn't look like they gave up 30 with the way they played that game. I still think going forward, I still feel like we're going to be very high on this Raiders team who's 4-0 now against the spread this season.
00:21:03
Speaker 5: Yeah.
00:21:05
Speaker 1: What a difference between how they play and say, how the Chargers play. The final score in that game, I think it was 30 to 23. The number was seven. Some places got up to seven and a half, but it was never that close. Like that was all garbage time points after Seattle sort of had the game in hand. The Chargers are an embarrassment of a team. I do want to talk about the Eagles for a second. You were at the game. It was a game that we took out at the last second. Because of Lane Johnson, ultimately, we were kind of looking for reasons to take it out.
00:21:40
Speaker 2: It was making us nervous.
00:21:43
Speaker 1: The Eagles looked great. As someone who was there, what do you think went wrong? Because I was watching it, but was so much more focused on Bengals and Jags and Bills and Patriots.
00:21:58
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was your classic trap game. It was everything we thought it would be. Stafford out in the elements. He couldn't do anything in the first half.
00:22:05
Speaker 3: And the Eagles... kept getting all the breaks.
00:22:07
Speaker 4: And I just, I look at this now and I just think like, okay, if you're, if you're this Eagles team and you lose this type of game, I think it is something you can build on because they were in it. I mean, they really should have won this game in so many ways. And I told you they were over 12 on third downs. So it's like the fact that they put up 20 in the first half and then score a single point in the second half.
00:22:32
Speaker 3: Brutal.
00:22:32
Speaker 4: I mean, it was one of those games too, like, you know, I'm taking a bunch of heat in the stands. Cause I'm telling people that like I'm on the Eagles, but I was like, it's a bad bet. If you have three and a half, I would have only taken four and a half and did not think it was going to matter.
00:22:44
Speaker 3: Really did not.
00:22:45
Speaker 4: I was like, he was going to cover this game no matter what they might lose by field goal, but they'll cover that number. Then you see how the game's going, how the number is breaking. And yeah, I feel sick for everyone that couldn't, they didn't cover the three and a half and the Eagles.
00:22:55
Speaker 3: It's, it's rare.
00:22:57
Speaker 4: You get 20 points in the first half from a team. They score zero at home. So Sirianni, I don't know what they're going to do. Um, Because like we keep saying, it's so early in the year, you try not to overreact to it, right? Once the Eagles get healthy, they'll be a good team. Like they have good coaching, but offensively, something's clearly wrong. And Saquon went out like early in the first.
00:23:15
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:23:17
Speaker 4: Didn't matter, obviously, in the first half, but as the game went along, you didn't have anyone to melt away that clock. And like I said, they didn't score a single point. So the Rams, I mean, you saw McVay. I'm sure you saw him running, skipping. He was literally skipping on the sideline. He was so happy because he never beat the Eagles. He just does not beat the Eagles.
00:23:33
Speaker 3: So.
00:23:34
Speaker 4: Huge, huge win for them where it felt like at 1-3 going home, the Rams season was getting away from them, and this really saved their season, just like it did with the Patriots. It sounds crazy early in the year like this, but the Rams, they were feeling it. You could feel it in the stadium. They were feeling that pressure. So tons of respect to Stafford. He never gave up, hung in there. I mean, he played bad. I'd have to look it up. He had two picks, but ended up throwing for 300 yards. They found a way, and, yeah, it's– It's bad. That Eagles stadium, the walkout was just awful. By the time we were 0-2 in our contest, I basically had lost every game other than the Bears. I was just like, my God, this is not the way to start your day. Right now, this Eagles team, I just hope they get healthy. The Rams, I still think they're a little overrated, Chad. It's going to be interesting to see what their number is next.
00:24:22
Speaker 3: Week on them.
00:24:26
Speaker 1: Pukunukuwa made a huge difference. There were just a couple plays where even he had I think I'm going to touchdown run that he had. It was a bad handoff. He bobbled the ball. He was still able to gather it. He had another long play down the field. That was a miracle catch. What a game where Devante Adams and Matthew Stafford were just a little bit off in the entire game. What a difference Puka Nakua made in that game, especially down the stretch. Like it was an impressive win by the Rams because they got dominated by so badly. And they should have lost that game in every way. And I think you're right. They were feeling it. They knew they had to get out of there two and two. If not, all of a sudden that preseason plus 400 bet we made on the Rams to miss the Super Bowl, to miss the playoffs, all of a sudden.
00:25:13
Speaker 2: It starts to look really, really good. You mentioned the Bears. I'll just say Tyson Bajent, right called.
00:25:25
Speaker 1: Looks so comfortable. That game was closer than it needed to be. The Bears should have won that game by 35 points. He had a couple bad throws, but he was just dialed in, and that team looked really, really good. And they made Geno Smith, who's played really well this year, and probably had– you had mentioned a lot.
00:25:44
Speaker 2: You were on the Bears.
00:25:45
Speaker 1: A lot of people come in on the Jets from the professional side because Geno Smith had been making teams look pretty bad defensively. So kudos to the Bears who just manhandled Geno Smith.
00:25:59
Speaker 3: Once again, though, should they pay Caleb?
00:26:02
Speaker 4: Because as much as you want to give the quarterback props, they had 54 carries for 232 yards.
00:26:08
Speaker 2: Totally.
00:26:10
Speaker 3: The system is what it is. It really is.
00:26:13
Speaker 4: So they have such a major decision to make because you can use that money to build the offensive line out. You can use it to get two running backs, which they have right now, right? Because Caleb's on a rookie contract. So I just love the idea of Ben Johnson being not fully committed.
00:26:28
Speaker 3: To to a future of Caleb where it really is.
00:26:31
Speaker 4: If Caleb doesn't show out these next two years, I do trust Ben will move on to someone else. Cause it's just this offense, this scheme, even today, like they didn't have it going right away. They had some things like, I think they got stuffed to the one seven straight times that a touchdown overturned. It was all going against them. Ben kept running the ball. He never stopped running the ball. It's just, if you're a fan of the team, it's so impressive where he doesn't go away from who he is.
00:26:54
Speaker 3: He never changes. And yeah, but none guy 30 carries. I mean, it's any given day. Yeah.
00:27:02
Speaker 4: Any given day it's him or Swift. It's whoever has the hot hand, he feeds them. And, um, yeah, this bears team, when we talk coming to the air, it's like, you expect the downturn this season.
00:27:12
Speaker 3: I mean, it's, it feels right.
00:27:13
Speaker 4: The point now, if Caleb comes back and he's playing well, they could easily be at one seat. Like they just have so much talent offensively. So yeah, really impressive win by the bears.
00:27:22
Speaker 1: The other game we should mention is Miami, uh, We liked Miami all week. We were both on Miami. It had gone in the direction of Miami. It moved from 11.5 down to 9.5. Did not have the courage of our convictions to put them back in the contest like we did last week. It would have made a difference because they would have replaced the Eagles and or Buffalo.
00:27:48
Speaker 2: So that's a bummer.
00:27:50
Speaker 1: But it's still one of those things where you're gambling because we were going to lose that game if TJ Hawkinson doesn't go down on the one-yard line, when he's got a clear path to the end zone to put them up by 12, he just takes a knee or takes a tushy.
00:28:07
Speaker 3: A ton of luck.
00:28:08
Speaker 4: That's why I try to tell people not to get too high or too low about this stuff. It really is that stupid sometimes that a guy catches a wide-open walking touchdown, he takes it right down to the one or the two and kneels down. I feel like everything we said was true. Kyler still is not comfortable yet on this offense. I think he figured it out, though, that TJ Oxton is just a go-to guy for him. If there's no Justin Jefferson, use your stud tight end. Miami on the flip side, they had a touchdown called back once again. This is back-to-back weeks. They had touchdowns called back. This is another game they easily could have won. I mean, they didn't give up a touchdown.
00:28:40
Speaker 3: The Vikings kicked all field goals. Brutal.
00:28:45
Speaker 4: Brutal is something that keeps back this Miami team where it's like people are just going to keep disrespecting them. They're going to think they got lucky here once again, but it's like As lucky as they did get at the end, they had so much bad luck in this game. Stupid things go against them. They should have always covered this number. So, yeah, really impressive win by the Vikings, though, once again.
00:29:01
Speaker 2: 4-0. Yeah, the Vikings offense is truly dreadful.
00:29:09
Speaker 1: They really can't get anything done.
00:29:11
Speaker 2: What's interesting about the Dolphins is you.
00:29:13
Speaker 1: Do feel like they need a miracle fluke to score a touchdown in any game. They're not going to have sustained drives. It's how it happened today, right? The play that was called back was a fluky touchdown play, but it got called back. The play they scored on was a fluky touchdown play that they actually scored on. They're not going to have sustained drives where they can close someone out. It's going to be... from some Malik Willis broken play.
00:29:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's because Malik Willis isn't consistent. You never know with day-to-day what kind of game you're going to get from him. I think he had 17 pass attempts.
00:29:52
Speaker 3: He completed nine. That's a full game. That's what I mean. Like you said, if you're third and seven, third and eight, you feel like you're dead with Miami.
00:30:01
Speaker 4: That's it's brutal, but we keep talking about, they're a team that keeps fighting. So maybe later in the year, once they give up, there'll be an easy fade for them. But as you sit here right now, I know next week, I'm going to like them again. Cause it's just, no one's been in there getting a ton of free points here. I mean, they covered by five points.
00:30:14
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:30:15
Speaker 4: Like we said, though, they should have got backdoored, but it is what it is. When you look at the results where it's like, this team has been in all these games, they have, they've not really been blown, blown out as bad as they've looked.
00:30:25
Speaker 3: So, you're right. It's, it's a shame we passed on it.
00:30:28
Speaker 4: Like that we debated between them and the bills for closing time this morning. You know, it's going to cost us a winning week. So it's, it's, it's pretty brutal.
00:30:38
Speaker 1: Uh, we are on Carolina tonight. Um, we are on Atlanta in the contest tomorrow night. We are one in three through the four games today. Simon, uh, Before we go on to Hero of the Week and, you know, Shame of the Week, anything to add about Carolina tonight? We've been on it, but still nervous about it because of injuries. I haven't bought out of my bet. The line has moved against us from earlier in the week. But I'm still not loving backing Jared Goff outside, and I still do like backing a Carolina Panthers team that can move the ball and is going to have to score every time, whether they've got you know, their top cornerbacks in the game or not.
00:31:28
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's all we're hoping for. Usually, in this spot, we back the Panthers, and they do put up the points. And we've seen this year, they're able to move the ball. Can they be consistent in their red zone? We know the Lions, I mean, they absolutely score when they get in the red zone. So, we're obviously hoping on a little bit of weather here, but like you said, the Lions got against us up to four and a half at a lot of shops now. So, if you didn't bet it, I'd still grab it, but it's also a game where if you want to wait and see if the Lions drive the field and score an opening touchdown, then You have seven and a half on Carolina.
00:31:56
Speaker 3: So you're not missing anything. We're not bending now. But I would grab it just in case Carolina gets the ball and they drive the field and score.
00:32:03
Speaker 2: Hero of the week, Simon.
00:32:04
Speaker 3: There's no doubt. It's got to be Kirk, right? He saved our day.
00:32:07
Speaker 4: He just drove the field, scored the touchdown, and got the two-pointer. So, yeah, we've already talked enough about this Raiders team after we love them. But, yeah, Kirk, by far, my hero of the week.
00:32:18
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's no-brainer. Kirk Cousins, hero of the week.
00:32:24
Speaker 1: Shame on you, I'm waffling between a couple different ones who were extraordinarily shameful. So I'll let you start. I'm curious to know where your head is at on this one.
00:32:46
Speaker 4: Gotta be Bill's defense. Shame on you, Buffalo Bill's defense. My God, I can't believe they let Drake May do that to him. How many times do they have him in third and ten, third and eight, and let him usually lose his legs or he would pass for it? It was just they had him so many times they should have blown this team out. They just felt like they were so much better. But Drake just stepped up to the plate. So shame on you, Bills defense. I just thought they were– they had him. I mean, they had a couple strip sacks too. Like they were in his face.
00:33:12
Speaker 3: They had him.
00:33:14
Speaker 4: And that's secondary for the Bills just to not show up in the second half. So it's going to be another year. It's all on Josh Allen for that Bills team. That's what it feels like.
00:33:21
Speaker 1: My shame on you came down to two different– selections. The first one was going to be Joe Burrow. I do think he lost that game for them. Jamar Chase, obviously leaving the game early has a huge impact on what you were planning to do and how they can defend you. But he was still throwing really well to Tee Higgins. But to your point earlier, so many plays where he was running around in the pocket, holding onto the ball too long, where he was And then the interceptions were just, you're going to be Joe Burrow. You're going to get the accolades. You're going to get the commercials. You're going to get the glory. You can't be throwing interceptions right to guys who you're not paying attention to when you're driving for the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter, when you've had no reason to be in that game. That is truly shameful. But I'm going outside our final five. It's the Houston Texans defense. This defense that had dominated in the first half, they had Dak Prescott in third and long, third and long, third and long. Then they had multiple times on the goal line, fourth down, where they had penalties that kept the drive alive for the Cowboys. And then in the second half, they just give up touchdown after touchdown after touchdown. Javante Williams had three touchdowns. CJ Stroud was not the problem in this game. The problem in this game is that the Texas defense at the end of the game let Dak Prescott run all over them.
00:34:52
Speaker 2: And C.D.
00:34:53
Speaker 1: Lamb get 17 catches for 189 yards. This is supposed to be one of the best defenses with Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr.
00:35:06
Speaker 2: And Lassiter.
00:35:06
Speaker 1: Freaking embarrassing what they did at the end of the game. So shame on you, Houston Texans. It's the second time in their four-game losing streak to start the season where they had the game, C.J. did his job, And they let a quarterback drive down the field and beat them. They're not supposed to lose on defense. Shame on you.
00:35:29
Speaker 2: Simon, we got some early leans here. Right away, you mentioned the Dolphins.
00:35:35
Speaker 1: Dolphins are currently seven and a half point home underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals. What's truly unfair isn't that we can't ever just choose a game where it's a blowout. is every single week it's a game with a team that, like, we're so interested in from the week before.
00:35:58
Speaker 2: And this time it's two, Miami and Cincinnati.
00:36:05
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be a crazy week because I already have a bunch of lines I already love and I've already bet.
00:36:10
Speaker 3: So, like, it's going to be an interesting week.
00:36:11
Speaker 4: We usually chill out a little bit, especially after a rough week, but it's like so many lines are just popping out right now that, you know, we could start with like an easy one right away. You can get the Seahawks right now, minus two and a half at poly market against the 49ers at home. Like I just, is this not peak hype 49ers?
00:36:34
Speaker 3: Yes.
00:36:34
Speaker 4: So yeah, that's another, we know the Seahawks defense matches up well against the 49ers. We had the evidence from last season. So I still think the Seahawks are really sloppy today. Like it's a lot just because they won. I don't feel like the Seahawks are going to treat it as a win. They were so sloppy today. The 49ers are going to be riding high of high. So that was a number that jumped out right away. You can hedge against our Atlanta bet. The Saints right now, they're plus one and a half against Minnesota. So if the Saints do come out and they win, you could get them. Before they move, they'll be in a favorite against the Minnesota Vikings because that's another team where it's like the Vikings, who's taking an option on them? They've looked so poor offensively. I'm shocked they're favorites on the road against the Saints team. Um, that was just a line that jumped right away.
00:37:17
Speaker 2: That was, by the.
00:37:19
Speaker 1: Way, the very first one I wrote down when we came on it on the air, it was plus two.
00:37:25
Speaker 3: Right.
00:37:27
Speaker 4: Um, bears are minus one and a half against green Bay. Is that not the fishiest line of the week?
00:37:33
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:37:34
Speaker 2: I looked at that and I thought, what am I missing?
00:37:36
Speaker 3: What are we missing? So that's when I'll be patient.
00:37:38
Speaker 4: Cause that should, like, even before he came on there, like that's a number I thought would be minus three. And it's like, okay, we'll debate taking green Bay. And minus one and a half, early number.
00:37:47
Speaker 3: I'll grab that right now. I'll grab it right now.
00:37:51
Speaker 4: Even watching Green Bay today, they just look so poorly coached.
00:37:55
Speaker 3: The penalties, all of them.
00:37:56
Speaker 4: I mean, Tampa had an undrafted rookie quarterback almost winning that game with all these awful turnovers. So I was shocked by that opening line. A lot of respect to the Packers. Another one that jumps out right away. We talk about how much we love them. They're giving us the hook right now with Vegas. Vegas is plus three and a half against the Patriots at Polymarket.
00:38:17
Speaker 3: Yeah. So that's another one where it's like me and Chad can't help ourselves.
00:38:21
Speaker 4: I know for a fact we'll come in on Tuesday and we'll both want to bet that one. It's just the Raiders have been covering machines. So I'll try to be patient there because the books know what they're doing. Like they know everyone's been covering with Vegas and everyone's going to be taking Vegas once again. So I don't really get the hook. To me, they could open this at plus three and they would get pretty even action here. They're clearly taking a stance on the Patriots. with that opening number. And one more dog we love that's been good to us, the Browns, plus two, plus one and a half at the Jets. Do we finally jump off the Browns ship?
00:38:55
Speaker 1: Yes.
00:38:57
Speaker 2: Dude, I thought you were going to say you wanted to be on the Browns here. And I'm like.
00:39:02
Speaker 3: No, but they're trying to entice you in with that number.
00:39:04
Speaker 5: I know.
00:39:04
Speaker 1: I know.
00:39:05
Speaker 2: And I'm like, I don't know about that.
00:39:07
Speaker 1: But to me, the one thing I would ask is, Geno's health because he got banged up in that game.
00:39:15
Speaker 2: And there were moments where he looked like he might have to come out.
00:39:18
Speaker 1: He had a pretty bad, it looked like he was flexing his hand a lot and we don't know about Brees Hall. So I do think that made a huge difference in this game, not having Brees Hall.
00:39:29
Speaker 2: So the, are the two things.
00:39:30
Speaker 1: When I looked at that number, I'm like, I want to grab it. And then I was thinking about Geno and not knowing what's going to be happening.
00:39:37
Speaker 4: So the biggest line to me about injuries is Lamar.
00:39:39
Speaker 3: We don't know Lamar's status yet. He didn't play the second half against Tennessee.
00:39:43
Speaker 4: Right.
00:39:44
Speaker 3: They are minus three and a half right now at Atlanta. So if you want to take a position on Atlanta, once again, I'm on Atlanta.
00:39:50
Speaker 4: I'm going to take a position there because if Atlanta wins, right, which I think they will against the Saints, this number potentially could be two and a half. And then if Lamar comes out, he's not playing, this could flip, and Atlanta could be favored. So just another one I'll take an early position on. And the last two, because I know we're going to be talking a lot about these games. I just want people to grab them now. You can get Arizona Cardinals plus six or plus five and a half against Detroit at home.
00:40:15
Speaker 3: That's another one.
00:40:16
Speaker 4: Shouldn't we just grab this now in case they lose to the Panthers tonight or don't cover? Because this could easily be three and a half if they don't win or cover. And the last one is the Bills. The Bills play on Monday night at the Rams. Josh Allen has a dog plus two and a half. They're begging you. They're begging you to take Josh Allen right here. So that's just a line I'm not betting yet. Just be careful, people. My early read would be take the number. Because like I said, I watched the Rams in person today. they have a lot of weaknesses you can exploit offensively. So yeah, I just, I couldn't believe that one open. I thought it'd be a pick them there. They're clearly taking a stand. The sports books open up. Josh Allen is a big dog.
00:40:55
Speaker 3: Yeah.
00:40:56
Speaker 2: I was shocked by that. Completely shocked.
00:40:59
Speaker 1: I think you hit every game that I was looking at. New Orleans was a plus two when we went on the air. I'm only seeing Seattle minus three and then three and a half at the prediction markets. So it's probably money already moving Seattle. The Raiders plus three and a half was interesting. Atlanta, Arizona plus six, not a great day for the Cardinals today.
00:41:29
Speaker 2: No, not at all. And yeah, the Bills plus two and a half.
00:41:34
Speaker 1: I'm like, that feels like someone's giving the Rams a little bit too much credit. But we thought the same thing this week about the Rams.
00:41:42
Speaker 2: So maybe we just don't have the Rams.
00:41:44
Speaker 4: But you can do the same thing, which is like I tell people, if you're squeamish about these teams against the Rams, just tease them up. You're getting plus numbers. So once like Eagles, they covered in the teaser, same thing. You're getting Josh Allen right now, plus eight and a half. So, you know, if you want to find like a match of the take with that, if you want to think the Bengals are going to bounce back, be Miami. He's down the Bengals to pair him with Josh Allen. Like there's just, Houston's at Tennessee. If you think Houston's finally going to win, they're six and a half.
00:42:11
Speaker 3: Tease them down. Pair them with the Bills. When we get off this call, that's what I'm going to be doing here.
00:42:15
Speaker 4: I'm going to be betting a lot of early numbers just in case that number goes from two and a half down to one and a half.
00:42:20
Speaker 3: Now we're down to seven and a half on teasers. That's just my whole point.
00:42:23
Speaker 4: You try to get to eight and a half now, it's a nice position to be on because later in the week, me and Chad are sitting here and 90% of the bets are on the Bills. We have to take the Rams. We have to ride with the books on that position. That's why it's If I can hit that middle, I'll do.
00:42:38
Speaker 3: That with the bills. Cause I'm with you. I'm something's fishy about it.
00:42:40
Speaker 4: I don't want to take the two and a half, but I'm definitely going to tease the bills up as we sit here right now.
00:42:46
Speaker 2: All right. That's our show.
00:42:47
Speaker 1: Like I said, we're sitting at one and three. We need the Falcons to cover plus two and a half Monday night football. We will return Tuesday with our week five betting preview. This has been sharper square sponsored by poly market. Part of the volume podcast network. Watch or listen on YouTube at sharper square. Like this video, subscribe to the channel, download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you.
00:43:17
Speaker 5: I've had ups and downs. Don't worry about it. I'll get over it, but not really. Everything's cool. I'll be back. The emotion and the burning desire that I have inside me right now will continue.
