00:00:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square brought to you by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. We are live Sunday morning, week four. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional batter, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:27
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:28
Speaker 1: Brother, very interesting morning. There are a lot of games right now with lines moving mostly in the direction we've predicted all week. But that may mean there are opportunities for value in the contest lines, which move a bit more slowly. So the question is, will we be tempted? Let's get into it. This is our Sunday morning NFL week four show. Simon and I We'll nail down the final five picks for our $ 25, 000 pro football pick'em contest. You can sign up at sharp or square.thevolume.com. Still totally free to enter. Simon, I would say the most interesting, scary, tempting game on the board, Los Angeles Rams visiting the Philadelphia Eagles. The number is three and a half. We made this Simon Says on Tuesday when it was Eagles plus three. In the intervening five days, Devante Smith for the Eagles is out. Zach Bond for the Eagles is out. Puka Nukua for the Rams is in. The line has moved in the Rams direction. The wise guys on Thursday sharp calls were on the Rams. We liked this. Are we still comfortable now putting the Eagles at three and a half in the contest given all the circumstances?
00:02:00
Speaker 2: It's sad days. Let me say Aaron Donald's missing this game. That's how the mighty have fallen.
00:02:04
Speaker 1: Oh, my God.
00:02:05
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:02:06
Speaker 1: Forgot about that.
00:02:09
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's like I said, though, on Thursday's show, right? They were on the two and a half, three. I have no problem if you want to take Rams two and a half or three. But I haven't bought out of my episode. I don't know if you have. I'm still heavily on bet on the Eagles game. it's, it's just not ideal. That was my whole issue was like, I thought this was going to be a layup for professional bettors. And obviously it's not right. All those injuries, it leads to a lot of unknown. It's impossible to model that stuff. But I mean, here we are on Sunday, the number is still three and a half, despite all the money. I mean, you can't find a more public pick this week. I mean, there's another game we'll talk about. It's really public, but this is as public as it gets. And yeah, just guys I've talked to today. It's, If you're on the Eagles' side, it's exactly what you want right now in Philly. It is cold and it's wet, and it's supposed to rain throughout the game. So you have Matthew Stafford outdoors in the elements against a team he's struggled against. I've talked about those stats. McVay has never beat Sirianni. He's 0-4 in his career. So there's just a lot to like on this Eagles' side when it comes to this number. And I've talked about the Jalen Hurts number as a dog. He's 6-0 against the spread his last six games as an underdog in Philadelphia, 5-1 straight up. So.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: You're just– you're betting against a lot of history if you're betting the Rams, especially at minus 3.5. So, yeah, it's a game I never thought I was going to be able to avoid. The fact that it's held at this number is the most shocking part. I thought this would be 4, 4.5 by now because there's so much money coming on the Rams. But obviously, there's professional money holding up here at 3.5. Yeah, I still like it.
00:03:35
Speaker 1: Like you, I have not bought out of my position. I was tempted. I was tempted when I was doing some research this morning when I saw the final– the final list of who's going to be out and Devante's out also. I'm like, oh, geez, am I going to? And then I said, you know what? There's too much precedent here, not just about the Eagles. It's about sort of how the public is portraying this game. And when I say public, a lot of times I'm just talking about pricing. Like, I don't think that the Eagles in this scenario at home, given their credibility, given their capabilities, should be a three and a half point home. underdog. That's way too much of an overreaction to what happened last week against the Bears and to Puka coming back and the continued love and affection from the public for the Rams. So I think you and I have convinced ourselves that we're both going to keep this game in the contest. It is time for our Polymarket closing time trade of the week. Brother, it's a game we've been trying to avoid all week. I brought it up just before we jumped on the air. And it is the Buffalo Bills, six and a half, trading at 54% on Polymarket. The Buffalo Bills at six and a half at 54% on Polymarket will be our closing time trade of the week. Dude, we both tried to avoid it. At the end of the day, Christian Gonzalez is out. Christian Barmore is out, defensive tackle for the Patriots. All the other issues. And the reason that it flipped for me finally is we're starting to see sevens everywhere. This game still being available at six and a half at Polymarket. And by the way, in the contest, just feels like we got to grab the six and a half. We may be stepping in it, but I'm comfortable with stepping into Josh Allen's pile.
00:05:42
Speaker 2: It was either this or Miami, right? So thank you, Polymarket. I appreciate it. And we will take this one happily. And yeah, if we get burned, if Josh Allen truly has back-to-back bad games, that'll be on us. But it's just, we know the math. We know it's not likely. And Patriots just have so many injuries right now. It's just, it feels like they're in an impossible scenario, honestly. So yeah, let's go Bills, minus six and a half.
00:06:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. And like the Patriots as a team are in the same lane as the Chargers for us, where we know... It's probably a little bit overinflated to the side of the favorites in these games. But these teams have been so bad. And so it's time to sort of decide, are these teams just not going to be the teams we thought they were? It's a little bit of that in the Patriots, but it's more on the spot and the injuries. I do need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports. In the past, If you wanted action on the game, you put some money in and your team, if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guy's They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Cincinnati minus two and a half hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. We are finally, finally, finally starting to see some money come in on the Bengals that may move this to three, still two and a half in the contest. I believe we still like it.
00:08:00
Speaker 2: Yeah. We, we love Cincy. It's definitely a fun week of debating, uh, these two quarterbacks, right? Trevor Lawrence. Um, I feel like people have either really dug in on him lately and they're now they're moving him into that spot of being like, no, this is a top five guy, especially in this offense. And this is definitely a game where he could keep bashing that, you know, that narrative that he's not ready yet for that next level, which we put, you know, Joe burrow in with Lamar and Josh Allen, where this is going to be a battle between two really great quarterbacks. So, um, it's, it's been fun debating it all week, especially, you know, Joe's what 30 now and chair Lawrence 26, 27. So, um, you know, you look at this match with the fact that it's still two and a half is really interesting to me. I really thought this was going to be a really have a professional side, but obviously it's pretty split between the prison. We have a bunch of games this week that are pretty split up. Guys take a position, taking stands. So yeah, Jaguars could be the more complete team right now. We talked, this just feels like such a spot to back this Bengals team after a bad, embarrassing loss last week. And it could happen again, right? Joe could blow the end of this game again, but You're getting under three. I just can't get over that fact where it's like Joe usually covers these numbers, especially against good teams where he's not going to overlook this team. Cincinnati's not going to overlook this team anyway. Matchup-wise, excited to see what the Jets defense can do to exploit this Cincinnati offense. This is really going to come down to that for me just because I do think Cincinnati, as bad as they looked last week, I think this is a big bounce-back week for them defensively. On the flip side, offensively, I just think Joe Burrows doesn't look right completely. I think this is a good spot for him offensively with those weapons.
00:09:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now Cincinnati is basically minus 115 across the board. So it hasn't gotten to three yet. I'm curious if it'll get to three. As long as it's under three for me, I'm still on Cincinnati. Again, it's similar to me to the Eagles and the Rams, like a little bit too much of an adjustment based on what the Jaguars had just done to the Patriots helped along by Drake Mays foibles and the Bengals falling apart a little bit at the end against the Steelers. So we still like Cincinnati minus two and a half. I put Dallas at Houston and In here, mainly because this was Chad's choice, it was Chad's choice at two and a half. It's mostly three across the board, a couple of two and a halves available. But it had been three and a half in the contest. The hook over the key number of three takes it off the board for me. If it's a three and a half, two and a half, I'd consider it.
00:10:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, Texans are a bad team. I would not be playing them minus three and a half in this match. Even though we do like the matchup, it really was about it being two and a half. Same with the Bengals. If the Bengals were three and a half in the contest, I would not be playing them at all. That's what's important to talk about here. It's these games between, you could say, equally matched teams, which this team is, right? The Texans-Dallas, neither team is that much better or worse in many ways. You could honestly say Dallas probably right now is the better team. At least we exactly know what we're going to get from them offensively. despite all the questions defensively. But, yeah, we've talked. This is really about the respect to the Texans and their coaching staff and also that stupid trend that we all know and love. That's the 0-3 trend since 2020. Teams in the exact spot like the Texans are in, they're 13-3 against the spread. It's just you back an 0-3 team, playing a team that at least has one win. It should be a good week for you this week. There's a bunch of teams that fit that exact trend. So it is– Interesting, though, of all those teams in that trend, this is by far the only team the public is backing. Like this is the one team they're willing to put their money behind because I think most people have our simple thoughts, but it is a simple strategy. We're like they can't be owned for. It's just it's hard to think the Texans can be. And we would not be shocked if we come in and Dallas beats them by three.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: Right.
00:12:04
Speaker 2: This feels like a field goal game. But that's also why we like to two and a half on Houston. So. Yeah, if it's not a contest, it really is just about it not being two and a half. If it's three and a half, I would definitely pass.
00:12:15
Speaker 1: All right. So right now, Miami at Minnesota. In the contest, the line is ten and a half. If you look at the odds right now for this game, the number has moved quite a bit. This game was in double digits, and it is right now. I'm just checking the latest numbers here so I can get the most up to date as possible. I'm looking at, hold on. Where did that one go? Give me a second here. Pretty sure it's down to nine and a half. I don't know if that's what you're seeing as well, but I'm seeing nine and a half and 10. So earlier this morning, it was consensus nine and a half. There's a couple of tens that have popped, but in the context, it's 10 and a half. So we're getting a point of value and we liked it. When it was in double digits and we liked it even more if we saw the line had moved in Miami's direction and is going to close under double digits. We thought about making this closing time. Are we tempted at 10 and a half?
00:13:22
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard not to be. We talked, this is, it's going to be like this almost every week for us with Miami, unfortunately. Who knows another year if they'll have a winning record against the spread. But every week you're going to get three points of free value because they're such a bad team. The question is, when does the book catch up to it? Because right now they're 0-3 against the spread. And they're playing against a team who's 3-0 against the spread, 3-0 straight up. This is a no-brainer. You're getting tons of free value. The Vikings, I mean, anyone can look at underlying numbers. They're one of the worst teams EPA per play offensively in all the NFL. They're terrible. But that's because they've had Kyler in and out of the lineup. When he's come back, he hasn't looked right. He's learned a whole new offensive scheme. There's so many questions in Minnesota. We talk about that. It's all about their coaching staff. So, you know, if we avoid this one, the contest, because it's nine and a half, sure. But at ten and a half, it's going to be tough because it's such a good number and such a favorable matchup for Miami. Like, I've had people ask, am I really risking my survivor pools on this Vikings team? And it's like, I am, but I get if you want to take the Ravens, right? I understand the fear of Kyler Murray, but you just look at this Vikings defense and it's like, okay, Miami can keep it close, but the Vikings really would have to blow this game in so many ways to lose it to Miami here. Not shocked the numbers come down, but I've talked about it. I'm not telling you not to put the Vikings in teasers. You can do whatever you want with that. It would be shocking for Miami to win, but The back door, that option to me will always be open. It's just Minnesota, they're 3-0, but no one takes them fully seriously as a 3-0 team yet, right? There's still a ton of questions around this team. And, you know, as terrible as Miami is, it's really hard to cover double digits in the NFL. You really need to be playing at a high level. So I'm glad we didn't make it closing time because I feel bad making our listeners of the show take that number. But, yeah, it's– I can't avoid it. Like I said, they fit all the trends and it's an inflated number. So, yeah, I'm definitely going to be on Miami here, even if it's still above the 10.
00:15:30
Speaker 1: Denver is visiting San Francisco. The line is San Francisco, two and a half, a lot of threes out there. That has moved even since earlier this morning when it was prominently two and a half choose to move to three. A little surprised, honestly, given you and I both love Denver all week. There are some pretty significant injuries on the defensive line for San Francisco, including Nick Bosa. And the line has moved up to three. It was on sharp calls as a Denver play. So now at two and a half, in the contest at two and a half, how are we feeling about it?
00:16:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, still in Denver. I mean, it's definitely not ideal that it's going back up, right? We always feel better if it goes the other way. But it's another game that doesn't make– it's not that shocking that it's pretty split, right? There's a lot to like about the 49ers. And we've talked, parties can be debated. He's the MVP right now of the NFL. Like, he's just played at that high of a level. So, it probably makes sense how the pros are betting it. Denver on the flip side, I mean, they've just been super inconsistent. It's a lot to ask of this guy Webb. week to week where they do nothing for I don't even know what three three games where those first halves look like a struggle and then they make adjustments they look good in the second half Denver so can they do it again this week keep coming back I don't know but I think their defense is healthy their offensive line is healthy this feels like should be a really dominant win by Denver like just across the board if Bo Nix cannot play sloppy this is a really good match for them where you just talked about like they have so many injuries. I mean, Mike Evans is going to try to go out there with basically fractured ribs, apparently. So it's like, it is really, really tough to back this one. Our team. So that's what it is. Interesting. Why the pros are bad. And we're just a ton of respect to Purdy and still not trusting a bone Knicks in this Denver often. So I'm still on it, but like you said, it's, it's definitely one of those where it's, it's very split between professionals.
00:17:41
Speaker 1: Simon, someone put in the comments and this is officially confirmed that Outside of our very connected comment section, Lane Johnson officially inactive for the Eagles. So Lane Johnson not playing. That offensive line has already been struggling. We're going to have to have a conversation about if that changes. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe we're just like we're stubborn. We're in. We like the spot for the Eagles. We don't care. We like the weather. We like the situation that it puts the Rams in. but let's get through it. And then we'll, we'll sort of have our final conversation, Kansas city, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, still holding on at four and a half. We've been on Las Vegas all week. We liked the spot. We got a little bit of pushback from the professionals in sharp calls. Are we still committed?
00:18:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can still, we can still dig. Like I I'm still in my position on the Raiders. I haven't bought out or anything like that. And I think we even put them in our money line round Robin. Yeah.
00:18:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, we did.
00:18:41
Speaker 2: Um, It's another one of previous years that probably would have been harder on us to fight us. But this year, I'm honestly letting you, especially Chad, do whatever he wants, honestly. Why? That's how it goes for now. Because I've tried to go against you the other way, and I haven't broken you in any way. You still have all these bad habits. So now I'm going the other way where it's like, I'm letting you do whatever you want. I have people asking me, usually I would call you out on it. You gave out, I think, a total on Thursday night, right? You were like, don't forget to take under. I'm on the under. Normally, I'd bash you and be like, why are you taking the under? Where are you getting this from? Cause I never said anything about the under and I'm trying to, I'm begging people take the Browns. This is what we do yearly. And here you come out of left field. You're under, I told you, I don't even try anymore. If Chad wants to take the under on Thursday night games, I'm going to, I'm not going to debate him. I'm not going to give him a fight. It's I'm going to let him roll the punches here. So the same thing here where it's like, if you want to die with me on this hill, Chad, we'll die together.
00:19:32
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Don't, You're not just putting this on me.
00:19:38
Speaker 2: I said together. I literally just said together. This guy, I'm telling you people, this guy, he doesn't hear a word I said since I made fun of him five minutes ago.
00:19:45
Speaker 1: Because you're saying it both. You're saying, I'm going to let you do it, but we're in it together. We can't be in it together if you're letting me do it.
00:19:53
Speaker 2: I'm with you on it. That's why I'm trying to make a point here. There's some games where I'll try to fight you on it, but this one, I'm on it with you. We're going to touch the hot stove together. We want to know. We know we probably should be on the Chiefs. I don't think the Chiefs are four and a half points better. So it's like we're about to either get caught by the books or walking into it or we'll come out smelling like roses where I think the Raiders could easily win this game outright. So, yeah, I wanted to avoid it. I was hoping to avoid it. But if you're still on it, I'm still on it. It's going to be tough to avoid this one, the contest, especially the fact that we're probably going to switch out the Eagles now.
00:20:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's getting tough. Atlanta at New Orleans is Monday night. You loved it on Thursday. It's one of your biggest bats. the line is moving aggressively in the Saints direction. The fact we can still get at a two and a half only confirms what we were discussing earlier in the week. So to me, that feels like a pretty consensus. We're in it together. Play Simon.
00:20:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. I wish I would have known this is apparently the Katrina game. I had no idea. Yeah. This was a Steve Gleason game. So yeah.
00:21:01
Speaker 1: 20 years.
00:21:02
Speaker 2: Not great. Not, not great, but, we play the numbers here. We try to take the motions out of it. And yeah, matchup wise, I wish people could still get the two and a half. There are still very public shops out there that still have a plus two and a half. So you can still get it if you want to join us. But I just, I have a hard time thinking the, the, the saints are that much better than a team than Atlanta. When Atlanta has like a quarterback that can move the ball, especially downfield. So the saints don't have the offensive line anymore. Like they did come into this season. They've had a bunch of injuries and, that that's the only area I think the Falcons defense is going to exploit because without A.J. Terrell, their secondary is honestly pretty terrible, the Falcons. Like if they can't get to Chuck and get him off his spot, they're going to have a long day, Atlanta. That's the only fear of playing this one. But matchup-wise, I think Atlanta will get whatever they want offensively. It's a fun week, honestly, for the NFC South. Like this one, the Panthers, I've had a lot of questions about. Like I'm still on the Panthers. um people are really interested in that line because that's another one where it's a bad nfc south team that people perceive with a bunch of injuries in carolina playing against i think people still view the lines as a juggernaut um but we talk about it's like if it's on the road sunday night maybe a little wet maybe a little cold isn't that when we want to fade jared golf and they know they have all the numbers you just have to blitz them you can't just let them stand back there so I've had probably the most amount of questions I've had about two NFC North teams or South teams this week. People ask about Carolina and Atlanta. I'm on both. I feel way stronger, though, about Atlanta at two and a half than I do any other bet. All right.
00:22:44
Speaker 1: So we've got to make a call.
00:22:46
Speaker 2: Here.
00:22:47
Speaker 1: Actually, before we get to that, let's run through your current biggest bets.
00:22:56
Speaker 2: I mean– definitely since you have invested that Miami, you've invested in that one heavily Denver invested in that and then Atlanta. Um, yeah, like as we sit here right now, like when I get off this call, I might invest more in Miami still at the 10. Um, but like, I really did plan on betting more into the Eagles by Lane Johnson stuff has me spooked. Like now they're down two starters on a bad, already a battle offensive line. It's, Man, you're asking a lot to overcome right now, Philadelphia. I mean, we haven't even talked. Like, this is a team that has wanted to run two tight end sets. Now they have 37-year-old Zach Ertz trying to make blocks, and it's just not possible. This is a guy that he should be catching the ball and not blocking at the end. So it's brutal. Like, the Eagles felt like such a good spot, and now it's kind of dead.
00:23:45
Speaker 1: Someone in the chat is asking me my biggest bet. My biggest bet has been Houston minus two and a half. That was the number that I got. Earlier in the week and then after that, I would say Cincinnati minus two and a half. So short home dogs. And Simon can't even tell me that he's trying to teach me a lesson and not bet on those because I know he loves those games at Houston minus two and a half and Cincinnati minus two and a half because we just talked about it. Simon, I feel like we like Cincinnati two and a half. We like Denver plus two and a half. I would say Denver and Cincinnati for me are tied in terms of second biggest bet. I'm with you on Atlanta two and a half. Philly, I feel like neither of us are feeling good about. And we're definitely going to regret taking it out. We're definitely going to regret taking it out and putting it in for Miami or putting Miami in for Philly. And then we got to make a call on the Raiders plus four, which just made us fight with each other. Plus four and a half.
00:24:54
Speaker 2: Again, people chatting didn't have brothers, so he doesn't know what fighting is. He thinks simple banter is fighting. I'd rather lose in the Bills than I would on the Eagles because the Eagles one, I could feel like we just look really stupid where they get blown out, where the Bills were expecting to get backdoor to lose that cover. That's the only way I could think of losing that cover is a backdoor by knowing one. So that one I'd be fine put in. But yeah, like Raiders, I'm fine with dying on a hill with the Raiders. That was my whole point of that whole thing where it's like, I'm not trying to be mean or be like, hey, I got you come Sunday night. It's like, no, I am in on the Raiders with you, and we're going against really smart groups that are on the Chiefs that I know I'm going to get a ton of text messages if it's 20-0 at halftime being like, you are a sucker, just like everyone else. And it's like, oh, that hurts. But I just– this isn't the same old Raiders to me. I just can't get over how good I think their coaching is. And on the flip side, as good as the Chiefs are, can attack that offensive line and they have some guys up front that can get after that off the time. Like we've talked about the chiefs, they do have weaknesses that certain teams can exploit. I think the Raiders are one of them.
00:26:04
Speaker 1: All right, here we go. Final five bills minus six and a half since he minus two and a half Denver plus two and a half Raiders plus four and a half. Atlanta plus two and a half. Last one out, Eagles. Last one in, Bills. Came down probably to Bills and Miami, I would say. Those were the final two that we were debating between. We're going to feel like jerks when Miami pulls off the upset here. Listen, for those in the contest, you can now check the live contest lines. Even after you submit your picks, just go to Leaderboard, click on Live Odds to check the latest lines across the board. That's our show. Simon and I will return tonight at 7.30 Eastern live on Sharp or Square YouTube with our NFL Week 4 reactions after the late afternoon games wrap up. This has been Sharp or Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharp or Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until tonight. Love you. It's going to be kind of hectic today.
00:27:32
Speaker 2: Real hectic.
00:27:33
Speaker 1: It's going to be a place with a faint of heart to stay at home. So stay at home if you
00:27:37
Speaker 2: Don't want to get hit.
Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square brought to you by Polymarket. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. We are live Sunday morning, week four. I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional batter, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
00:00:27
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing?
00:00:28
Speaker 1: Brother, very interesting morning. There are a lot of games right now with lines moving mostly in the direction we've predicted all week. But that may mean there are opportunities for value in the contest lines, which move a bit more slowly. So the question is, will we be tempted? Let's get into it. This is our Sunday morning NFL week four show. Simon and I We'll nail down the final five picks for our $ 25, 000 pro football pick'em contest. You can sign up at sharp or square.thevolume.com. Still totally free to enter. Simon, I would say the most interesting, scary, tempting game on the board, Los Angeles Rams visiting the Philadelphia Eagles. The number is three and a half. We made this Simon Says on Tuesday when it was Eagles plus three. In the intervening five days, Devante Smith for the Eagles is out. Zach Bond for the Eagles is out. Puka Nukua for the Rams is in. The line has moved in the Rams direction. The wise guys on Thursday sharp calls were on the Rams. We liked this. Are we still comfortable now putting the Eagles at three and a half in the contest given all the circumstances?
00:02:00
Speaker 2: It's sad days. Let me say Aaron Donald's missing this game. That's how the mighty have fallen.
00:02:04
Speaker 1: Oh, my God.
00:02:05
Speaker 2: Yeah.
00:02:06
Speaker 1: Forgot about that.
00:02:09
Speaker 2: Yeah. It's like I said, though, on Thursday's show, right? They were on the two and a half, three. I have no problem if you want to take Rams two and a half or three. But I haven't bought out of my episode. I don't know if you have. I'm still heavily on bet on the Eagles game. it's, it's just not ideal. That was my whole issue was like, I thought this was going to be a layup for professional bettors. And obviously it's not right. All those injuries, it leads to a lot of unknown. It's impossible to model that stuff. But I mean, here we are on Sunday, the number is still three and a half, despite all the money. I mean, you can't find a more public pick this week. I mean, there's another game we'll talk about. It's really public, but this is as public as it gets. And yeah, just guys I've talked to today. It's, If you're on the Eagles' side, it's exactly what you want right now in Philly. It is cold and it's wet, and it's supposed to rain throughout the game. So you have Matthew Stafford outdoors in the elements against a team he's struggled against. I've talked about those stats. McVay has never beat Sirianni. He's 0-4 in his career. So there's just a lot to like on this Eagles' side when it comes to this number. And I've talked about the Jalen Hurts number as a dog. He's 6-0 against the spread his last six games as an underdog in Philadelphia, 5-1 straight up. So.
00:03:17
Speaker 2: You're just– you're betting against a lot of history if you're betting the Rams, especially at minus 3.5. So, yeah, it's a game I never thought I was going to be able to avoid. The fact that it's held at this number is the most shocking part. I thought this would be 4, 4.5 by now because there's so much money coming on the Rams. But obviously, there's professional money holding up here at 3.5. Yeah, I still like it.
00:03:35
Speaker 1: Like you, I have not bought out of my position. I was tempted. I was tempted when I was doing some research this morning when I saw the final– the final list of who's going to be out and Devante's out also. I'm like, oh, geez, am I going to? And then I said, you know what? There's too much precedent here, not just about the Eagles. It's about sort of how the public is portraying this game. And when I say public, a lot of times I'm just talking about pricing. Like, I don't think that the Eagles in this scenario at home, given their credibility, given their capabilities, should be a three and a half point home. underdog. That's way too much of an overreaction to what happened last week against the Bears and to Puka coming back and the continued love and affection from the public for the Rams. So I think you and I have convinced ourselves that we're both going to keep this game in the contest. It is time for our Polymarket closing time trade of the week. Brother, it's a game we've been trying to avoid all week. I brought it up just before we jumped on the air. And it is the Buffalo Bills, six and a half, trading at 54% on Polymarket. The Buffalo Bills at six and a half at 54% on Polymarket will be our closing time trade of the week. Dude, we both tried to avoid it. At the end of the day, Christian Gonzalez is out. Christian Barmore is out, defensive tackle for the Patriots. All the other issues. And the reason that it flipped for me finally is we're starting to see sevens everywhere. This game still being available at six and a half at Polymarket. And by the way, in the contest, just feels like we got to grab the six and a half. We may be stepping in it, but I'm comfortable with stepping into Josh Allen's pile.
00:05:42
Speaker 2: It was either this or Miami, right? So thank you, Polymarket. I appreciate it. And we will take this one happily. And yeah, if we get burned, if Josh Allen truly has back-to-back bad games, that'll be on us. But it's just, we know the math. We know it's not likely. And Patriots just have so many injuries right now. It's just, it feels like they're in an impossible scenario, honestly. So yeah, let's go Bills, minus six and a half.
00:06:06
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right. And like the Patriots as a team are in the same lane as the Chargers for us, where we know... It's probably a little bit overinflated to the side of the favorites in these games. But these teams have been so bad. And so it's time to sort of decide, are these teams just not going to be the teams we thought they were? It's a little bit of that in the Patriots, but it's more on the spot and the injuries. I do need to tell you about this new prediction market called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports. In the past, If you wanted action on the game, you put some money in and your team, if your team was doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is a prediction market, a stock exchange for sports where you can buy and sell on your teams. I've tried them all and Polymarket is simply the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go back to the other guy's They're giving you a free $ 25 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. And now they've launched a new feature, Squads, a group chat where you can see what everyone is trading on. Check the link in the description to join my squad today. And Sweat picks together every Sunday in the Polymarket app. So download the Polymarket app today and use Sharp when you sign up. That's Sharp to get $ 25 free after you deposit just $ 10. Cincinnati minus two and a half hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars. We are finally, finally, finally starting to see some money come in on the Bengals that may move this to three, still two and a half in the contest. I believe we still like it.
00:08:00
Speaker 2: Yeah. We, we love Cincy. It's definitely a fun week of debating, uh, these two quarterbacks, right? Trevor Lawrence. Um, I feel like people have either really dug in on him lately and they're now they're moving him into that spot of being like, no, this is a top five guy, especially in this offense. And this is definitely a game where he could keep bashing that, you know, that narrative that he's not ready yet for that next level, which we put, you know, Joe burrow in with Lamar and Josh Allen, where this is going to be a battle between two really great quarterbacks. So, um, it's, it's been fun debating it all week, especially, you know, Joe's what 30 now and chair Lawrence 26, 27. So, um, you know, you look at this match with the fact that it's still two and a half is really interesting to me. I really thought this was going to be a really have a professional side, but obviously it's pretty split between the prison. We have a bunch of games this week that are pretty split up. Guys take a position, taking stands. So yeah, Jaguars could be the more complete team right now. We talked, this just feels like such a spot to back this Bengals team after a bad, embarrassing loss last week. And it could happen again, right? Joe could blow the end of this game again, but You're getting under three. I just can't get over that fact where it's like Joe usually covers these numbers, especially against good teams where he's not going to overlook this team. Cincinnati's not going to overlook this team anyway. Matchup-wise, excited to see what the Jets defense can do to exploit this Cincinnati offense. This is really going to come down to that for me just because I do think Cincinnati, as bad as they looked last week, I think this is a big bounce-back week for them defensively. On the flip side, offensively, I just think Joe Burrows doesn't look right completely. I think this is a good spot for him offensively with those weapons.
00:09:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, right now Cincinnati is basically minus 115 across the board. So it hasn't gotten to three yet. I'm curious if it'll get to three. As long as it's under three for me, I'm still on Cincinnati. Again, it's similar to me to the Eagles and the Rams, like a little bit too much of an adjustment based on what the Jaguars had just done to the Patriots helped along by Drake Mays foibles and the Bengals falling apart a little bit at the end against the Steelers. So we still like Cincinnati minus two and a half. I put Dallas at Houston and In here, mainly because this was Chad's choice, it was Chad's choice at two and a half. It's mostly three across the board, a couple of two and a halves available. But it had been three and a half in the contest. The hook over the key number of three takes it off the board for me. If it's a three and a half, two and a half, I'd consider it.
00:10:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, Texans are a bad team. I would not be playing them minus three and a half in this match. Even though we do like the matchup, it really was about it being two and a half. Same with the Bengals. If the Bengals were three and a half in the contest, I would not be playing them at all. That's what's important to talk about here. It's these games between, you could say, equally matched teams, which this team is, right? The Texans-Dallas, neither team is that much better or worse in many ways. You could honestly say Dallas probably right now is the better team. At least we exactly know what we're going to get from them offensively. despite all the questions defensively. But, yeah, we've talked. This is really about the respect to the Texans and their coaching staff and also that stupid trend that we all know and love. That's the 0-3 trend since 2020. Teams in the exact spot like the Texans are in, they're 13-3 against the spread. It's just you back an 0-3 team, playing a team that at least has one win. It should be a good week for you this week. There's a bunch of teams that fit that exact trend. So it is– Interesting, though, of all those teams in that trend, this is by far the only team the public is backing. Like this is the one team they're willing to put their money behind because I think most people have our simple thoughts, but it is a simple strategy. We're like they can't be owned for. It's just it's hard to think the Texans can be. And we would not be shocked if we come in and Dallas beats them by three.
00:12:04
Speaker 1: Right.
00:12:04
Speaker 2: This feels like a field goal game. But that's also why we like to two and a half on Houston. So. Yeah, if it's not a contest, it really is just about it not being two and a half. If it's three and a half, I would definitely pass.
00:12:15
Speaker 1: All right. So right now, Miami at Minnesota. In the contest, the line is ten and a half. If you look at the odds right now for this game, the number has moved quite a bit. This game was in double digits, and it is right now. I'm just checking the latest numbers here so I can get the most up to date as possible. I'm looking at, hold on. Where did that one go? Give me a second here. Pretty sure it's down to nine and a half. I don't know if that's what you're seeing as well, but I'm seeing nine and a half and 10. So earlier this morning, it was consensus nine and a half. There's a couple of tens that have popped, but in the context, it's 10 and a half. So we're getting a point of value and we liked it. When it was in double digits and we liked it even more if we saw the line had moved in Miami's direction and is going to close under double digits. We thought about making this closing time. Are we tempted at 10 and a half?
00:13:22
Speaker 2: I mean, it's hard not to be. We talked, this is, it's going to be like this almost every week for us with Miami, unfortunately. Who knows another year if they'll have a winning record against the spread. But every week you're going to get three points of free value because they're such a bad team. The question is, when does the book catch up to it? Because right now they're 0-3 against the spread. And they're playing against a team who's 3-0 against the spread, 3-0 straight up. This is a no-brainer. You're getting tons of free value. The Vikings, I mean, anyone can look at underlying numbers. They're one of the worst teams EPA per play offensively in all the NFL. They're terrible. But that's because they've had Kyler in and out of the lineup. When he's come back, he hasn't looked right. He's learned a whole new offensive scheme. There's so many questions in Minnesota. We talk about that. It's all about their coaching staff. So, you know, if we avoid this one, the contest, because it's nine and a half, sure. But at ten and a half, it's going to be tough because it's such a good number and such a favorable matchup for Miami. Like, I've had people ask, am I really risking my survivor pools on this Vikings team? And it's like, I am, but I get if you want to take the Ravens, right? I understand the fear of Kyler Murray, but you just look at this Vikings defense and it's like, okay, Miami can keep it close, but the Vikings really would have to blow this game in so many ways to lose it to Miami here. Not shocked the numbers come down, but I've talked about it. I'm not telling you not to put the Vikings in teasers. You can do whatever you want with that. It would be shocking for Miami to win, but The back door, that option to me will always be open. It's just Minnesota, they're 3-0, but no one takes them fully seriously as a 3-0 team yet, right? There's still a ton of questions around this team. And, you know, as terrible as Miami is, it's really hard to cover double digits in the NFL. You really need to be playing at a high level. So I'm glad we didn't make it closing time because I feel bad making our listeners of the show take that number. But, yeah, it's– I can't avoid it. Like I said, they fit all the trends and it's an inflated number. So, yeah, I'm definitely going to be on Miami here, even if it's still above the 10.
00:15:30
Speaker 1: Denver is visiting San Francisco. The line is San Francisco, two and a half, a lot of threes out there. That has moved even since earlier this morning when it was prominently two and a half choose to move to three. A little surprised, honestly, given you and I both love Denver all week. There are some pretty significant injuries on the defensive line for San Francisco, including Nick Bosa. And the line has moved up to three. It was on sharp calls as a Denver play. So now at two and a half, in the contest at two and a half, how are we feeling about it?
00:16:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, still in Denver. I mean, it's definitely not ideal that it's going back up, right? We always feel better if it goes the other way. But it's another game that doesn't make– it's not that shocking that it's pretty split, right? There's a lot to like about the 49ers. And we've talked, parties can be debated. He's the MVP right now of the NFL. Like, he's just played at that high of a level. So, it probably makes sense how the pros are betting it. Denver on the flip side, I mean, they've just been super inconsistent. It's a lot to ask of this guy Webb. week to week where they do nothing for I don't even know what three three games where those first halves look like a struggle and then they make adjustments they look good in the second half Denver so can they do it again this week keep coming back I don't know but I think their defense is healthy their offensive line is healthy this feels like should be a really dominant win by Denver like just across the board if Bo Nix cannot play sloppy this is a really good match for them where you just talked about like they have so many injuries. I mean, Mike Evans is going to try to go out there with basically fractured ribs, apparently. So it's like, it is really, really tough to back this one. Our team. So that's what it is. Interesting. Why the pros are bad. And we're just a ton of respect to Purdy and still not trusting a bone Knicks in this Denver often. So I'm still on it, but like you said, it's, it's definitely one of those where it's, it's very split between professionals.
00:17:41
Speaker 1: Simon, someone put in the comments and this is officially confirmed that Outside of our very connected comment section, Lane Johnson officially inactive for the Eagles. So Lane Johnson not playing. That offensive line has already been struggling. We're going to have to have a conversation about if that changes. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe we're just like we're stubborn. We're in. We like the spot for the Eagles. We don't care. We like the weather. We like the situation that it puts the Rams in. but let's get through it. And then we'll, we'll sort of have our final conversation, Kansas city, Las Vegas, Las Vegas, still holding on at four and a half. We've been on Las Vegas all week. We liked the spot. We got a little bit of pushback from the professionals in sharp calls. Are we still committed?
00:18:32
Speaker 2: Yeah, we can still, we can still dig. Like I I'm still in my position on the Raiders. I haven't bought out or anything like that. And I think we even put them in our money line round Robin. Yeah.
00:18:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, we did.
00:18:41
Speaker 2: Um, It's another one of previous years that probably would have been harder on us to fight us. But this year, I'm honestly letting you, especially Chad, do whatever he wants, honestly. Why? That's how it goes for now. Because I've tried to go against you the other way, and I haven't broken you in any way. You still have all these bad habits. So now I'm going the other way where it's like, I'm letting you do whatever you want. I have people asking me, usually I would call you out on it. You gave out, I think, a total on Thursday night, right? You were like, don't forget to take under. I'm on the under. Normally, I'd bash you and be like, why are you taking the under? Where are you getting this from? Cause I never said anything about the under and I'm trying to, I'm begging people take the Browns. This is what we do yearly. And here you come out of left field. You're under, I told you, I don't even try anymore. If Chad wants to take the under on Thursday night games, I'm going to, I'm not going to debate him. I'm not going to give him a fight. It's I'm going to let him roll the punches here. So the same thing here where it's like, if you want to die with me on this hill, Chad, we'll die together.
00:19:32
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Don't, You're not just putting this on me.
00:19:38
Speaker 2: I said together. I literally just said together. This guy, I'm telling you people, this guy, he doesn't hear a word I said since I made fun of him five minutes ago.
00:19:45
Speaker 1: Because you're saying it both. You're saying, I'm going to let you do it, but we're in it together. We can't be in it together if you're letting me do it.
00:19:53
Speaker 2: I'm with you on it. That's why I'm trying to make a point here. There's some games where I'll try to fight you on it, but this one, I'm on it with you. We're going to touch the hot stove together. We want to know. We know we probably should be on the Chiefs. I don't think the Chiefs are four and a half points better. So it's like we're about to either get caught by the books or walking into it or we'll come out smelling like roses where I think the Raiders could easily win this game outright. So, yeah, I wanted to avoid it. I was hoping to avoid it. But if you're still on it, I'm still on it. It's going to be tough to avoid this one, the contest, especially the fact that we're probably going to switch out the Eagles now.
00:20:26
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's getting tough. Atlanta at New Orleans is Monday night. You loved it on Thursday. It's one of your biggest bats. the line is moving aggressively in the Saints direction. The fact we can still get at a two and a half only confirms what we were discussing earlier in the week. So to me, that feels like a pretty consensus. We're in it together. Play Simon.
00:20:53
Speaker 2: Yeah. I wish I would have known this is apparently the Katrina game. I had no idea. Yeah. This was a Steve Gleason game. So yeah.
00:21:01
Speaker 1: 20 years.
00:21:02
Speaker 2: Not great. Not, not great, but, we play the numbers here. We try to take the motions out of it. And yeah, matchup wise, I wish people could still get the two and a half. There are still very public shops out there that still have a plus two and a half. So you can still get it if you want to join us. But I just, I have a hard time thinking the, the, the saints are that much better than a team than Atlanta. When Atlanta has like a quarterback that can move the ball, especially downfield. So the saints don't have the offensive line anymore. Like they did come into this season. They've had a bunch of injuries and, that that's the only area I think the Falcons defense is going to exploit because without A.J. Terrell, their secondary is honestly pretty terrible, the Falcons. Like if they can't get to Chuck and get him off his spot, they're going to have a long day, Atlanta. That's the only fear of playing this one. But matchup-wise, I think Atlanta will get whatever they want offensively. It's a fun week, honestly, for the NFC South. Like this one, the Panthers, I've had a lot of questions about. Like I'm still on the Panthers. um people are really interested in that line because that's another one where it's a bad nfc south team that people perceive with a bunch of injuries in carolina playing against i think people still view the lines as a juggernaut um but we talk about it's like if it's on the road sunday night maybe a little wet maybe a little cold isn't that when we want to fade jared golf and they know they have all the numbers you just have to blitz them you can't just let them stand back there so I've had probably the most amount of questions I've had about two NFC North teams or South teams this week. People ask about Carolina and Atlanta. I'm on both. I feel way stronger, though, about Atlanta at two and a half than I do any other bet. All right.
00:22:44
Speaker 1: So we've got to make a call.
00:22:46
Speaker 2: Here.
00:22:47
Speaker 1: Actually, before we get to that, let's run through your current biggest bets.
00:22:56
Speaker 2: I mean– definitely since you have invested that Miami, you've invested in that one heavily Denver invested in that and then Atlanta. Um, yeah, like as we sit here right now, like when I get off this call, I might invest more in Miami still at the 10. Um, but like, I really did plan on betting more into the Eagles by Lane Johnson stuff has me spooked. Like now they're down two starters on a bad, already a battle offensive line. It's, Man, you're asking a lot to overcome right now, Philadelphia. I mean, we haven't even talked. Like, this is a team that has wanted to run two tight end sets. Now they have 37-year-old Zach Ertz trying to make blocks, and it's just not possible. This is a guy that he should be catching the ball and not blocking at the end. So it's brutal. Like, the Eagles felt like such a good spot, and now it's kind of dead.
00:23:45
Speaker 1: Someone in the chat is asking me my biggest bet. My biggest bet has been Houston minus two and a half. That was the number that I got. Earlier in the week and then after that, I would say Cincinnati minus two and a half. So short home dogs. And Simon can't even tell me that he's trying to teach me a lesson and not bet on those because I know he loves those games at Houston minus two and a half and Cincinnati minus two and a half because we just talked about it. Simon, I feel like we like Cincinnati two and a half. We like Denver plus two and a half. I would say Denver and Cincinnati for me are tied in terms of second biggest bet. I'm with you on Atlanta two and a half. Philly, I feel like neither of us are feeling good about. And we're definitely going to regret taking it out. We're definitely going to regret taking it out and putting it in for Miami or putting Miami in for Philly. And then we got to make a call on the Raiders plus four, which just made us fight with each other. Plus four and a half.
00:24:54
Speaker 2: Again, people chatting didn't have brothers, so he doesn't know what fighting is. He thinks simple banter is fighting. I'd rather lose in the Bills than I would on the Eagles because the Eagles one, I could feel like we just look really stupid where they get blown out, where the Bills were expecting to get backdoor to lose that cover. That's the only way I could think of losing that cover is a backdoor by knowing one. So that one I'd be fine put in. But yeah, like Raiders, I'm fine with dying on a hill with the Raiders. That was my whole point of that whole thing where it's like, I'm not trying to be mean or be like, hey, I got you come Sunday night. It's like, no, I am in on the Raiders with you, and we're going against really smart groups that are on the Chiefs that I know I'm going to get a ton of text messages if it's 20-0 at halftime being like, you are a sucker, just like everyone else. And it's like, oh, that hurts. But I just– this isn't the same old Raiders to me. I just can't get over how good I think their coaching is. And on the flip side, as good as the Chiefs are, can attack that offensive line and they have some guys up front that can get after that off the time. Like we've talked about the chiefs, they do have weaknesses that certain teams can exploit. I think the Raiders are one of them.
00:26:04
Speaker 1: All right, here we go. Final five bills minus six and a half since he minus two and a half Denver plus two and a half Raiders plus four and a half. Atlanta plus two and a half. Last one out, Eagles. Last one in, Bills. Came down probably to Bills and Miami, I would say. Those were the final two that we were debating between. We're going to feel like jerks when Miami pulls off the upset here. Listen, for those in the contest, you can now check the live contest lines. Even after you submit your picks, just go to Leaderboard, click on Live Odds to check the latest lines across the board. That's our show. Simon and I will return tonight at 7.30 Eastern live on Sharp or Square YouTube with our NFL Week 4 reactions after the late afternoon games wrap up. This has been Sharp or Square, sponsored by Polymarket, part of the Volume Podcast Network. Watch or listen on YouTube at Sharp or Square. Like this video. Subscribe to the channel. Download some Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until tonight. Love you. It's going to be kind of hectic today.
00:27:32
Speaker 2: Real hectic.
00:27:33
Speaker 1: It's going to be a place with a faint of heart to stay at home. So stay at home if you
00:27:37
Speaker 2: Don't want to get hit.
