WEBVTT
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Ray Dahlio has a video called How the Economic Machine
2
00:00:04.519 --> 00:00:09.119
Works that changed how I think about personal growth, not economics,
3
00:00:09.560 --> 00:00:12.279
but how to become a better human. In the video,
4
00:00:12.519 --> 00:00:16.600
Dahlio draws a graph. There's a straight line moving upward,
5
00:00:16.879 --> 00:00:21.160
and that's productivity growth, the slow, steady increase in how
6
00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:24.640
much an economy can produce over time. And then there's
7
00:00:24.679 --> 00:00:28.920
this wave oscillating around it, swinging above the line during
8
00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:33.560
expansion and below it during contraction. That wave is the
9
00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:37.600
debt cycle, and Dahlio makes something clear that most people miss.
10
00:00:38.119 --> 00:00:41.759
The wave isn't the problem. Debt cycles are a natural,
11
00:00:41.960 --> 00:00:46.840
functional part of how economies grow. People borrow, invest, spend,
12
00:00:46.960 --> 00:00:50.640
and that spending becomes someone else's income. The cycle itself
13
00:00:50.840 --> 00:00:55.920
is healthy. The problem is amplitude. When the wave is smooth,
14
00:00:56.520 --> 00:01:01.200
gentle oscillations trending upward, the economy grows and people prosper.
15
00:01:01.640 --> 00:01:06.239
When the wave gets violent, steep spikes followed by devastating crashes,
16
00:01:06.560 --> 00:01:09.599
that's when you get the Great Depression, the two thousand
17
00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:13.439
and eight financial crisis Japan in nineteen eighty nine, the
18
00:01:13.519 --> 00:01:17.319
amplitude got too extreme and the system couldn't absorb the swing.
19
00:01:17.840 --> 00:01:20.840
I looked at that graph and realized it's also the
20
00:01:20.840 --> 00:01:25.040
most accurate picture of what personal development actually looks like.
21
00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:28.280
My name is Josh Terry. I help business owners work
22
00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:31.640
through the emotional, mental, and performance issues that hold them
23
00:01:31.680 --> 00:01:35.120
back from making better decisions and taking more action. If
24
00:01:35.120 --> 00:01:36.680
you'd like to work with me, you can book a
25
00:01:36.680 --> 00:01:39.480
call in the description below or go to apply dot
26
00:01:39.519 --> 00:01:42.719
Josh terryplays dot com and one of the most common
27
00:01:42.799 --> 00:01:48.239
patterns I work with is exactly this. Ambitious people caught
28
00:01:48.400 --> 00:01:54.719
in a violent oscillation between discipline and breakdown, order and chaos,
29
00:01:55.239 --> 00:01:59.719
peak performance and self sabotage. The wave is too steep
30
00:01:59.799 --> 00:02:03.599
in both directions, and it's tearing them apart. Here's what
31
00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:06.560
that cycle looks like in real life. You decide to
32
00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:11.960
get your life together. You apply discipline, diet, schedule, systems, structure.
33
00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:15.400
You start performing at a higher level. Things are working,
34
00:02:15.719 --> 00:02:20.400
You feel in control, and then unable to stand the
35
00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:24.039
control any longer you break. The diet goes out the window,
36
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the creative project gets abandoned, the schedule collapses. You rebel
37
00:02:28.840 --> 00:02:33.039
against everything you just built, either by telling yourself you
38
00:02:33.080 --> 00:02:35.439
deserve a break because you earned it, or by simply
39
00:02:35.520 --> 00:02:39.360
losing the willpower to maintain what you've constructed. The chaotic
40
00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:42.800
phase comes with a price. You wake up with a hangover,
41
00:02:43.000 --> 00:02:46.280
or a pile of miss deadlines, or a broken business structure,
42
00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:49.520
and a lot of guilt. So you tell yourself, next time,
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00:02:49.840 --> 00:02:52.680
I'll be more disciplined, I won't let this happen again,
44
00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:59.719
and the cycle repeats. Order chaos, order chaos, hopefully trending
45
00:02:59.800 --> 00:03:04.240
up over time through education and experience, but the swings
46
00:03:04.280 --> 00:03:08.719
are violent and they're exhausting. This is the pattern most
47
00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:11.879
people live in, and the standard advice makes it worse
48
00:03:12.240 --> 00:03:15.759
because the standard advice says the solution is more disciplined,
49
00:03:16.120 --> 00:03:20.240
which just makes the upswing steeper and the inevitable crash harder.
50
00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:24.479
Here's why the chaos isn't the problem. A straight line
51
00:03:24.599 --> 00:03:29.560
moving upwards sounds good in theory, steady, consistent, disciplined growth,
52
00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:34.240
but in reality, that's a life with no space for creativity, surprise, beauty,
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00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:39.120
or exploration. It's not sustainable and it's not desirable. Nobody
54
00:03:39.199 --> 00:03:41.960
actually wants to live on a straight line, and a
55
00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:45.479
life of total chaos is equally destructive. It might be
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bright and exciting, but the bills don't get paid. The
57
00:03:48.439 --> 00:03:52.319
deadlines get missed and you behave too unpredictably to maintain
58
00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:57.080
relationships or build. Anything that lasts absolute order or absolute
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00:03:57.159 --> 00:04:01.759
chaos is hell. They're both streams that the human system
60
00:04:01.800 --> 00:04:06.960
can't sustain what you actually need. What Dahlio's graph shows
61
00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:12.439
in economic terms is a smooth wave trending upward periods
62
00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:15.759
where you're performing at a higher level in some areas,
63
00:04:15.800 --> 00:04:19.360
and periods or performance dips as other needs take over.
64
00:04:20.160 --> 00:04:24.240
The oscillation isn't the enemy, it's the shape of healthy growth.
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The question is whether the wave is smooth or violent.
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And this is where most people get it wrong. When
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the inevitable need for chaos arrives, and it will because
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you're a human being with a genuine need for novelty, play, exploration,
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and more, most people don't choose it. It chooses them.
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They wait until the pressure builds so high that the
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system breaks, and then the chaos that floods in isn't chosen.
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It's reactive. It's a binge, a burnout, or a breakdown.
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That's the equivalent of Dahlio's bubble and crash cycle, where
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pe people borrow money to get better results and then
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they run out of money and crash. You overleveraged on discipline,
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You overleveraged on commitment. You borrowed against your own creative
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and emotional needs for too long, and when the correction comes,
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it's not a gentle dip below the line, it's a crash.
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The people I work with who run companies see this
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pattern in themselves constantly. They'll operate at peak performance for months,
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executing flawlessly, making great decisions, building momentum, and then the
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crash comes. A week of bad decisions, a fight with
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their partner that seems to come out of nowhere, a
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sudden loss of motivation that makes no sense given how
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well things were going, But it makes perfect sense. They
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overleveraged on order. The correction was inevitable. The only question
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was how violent it would be. So here's the framework
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for smoothing out the wave. Instead of waiting for chaos
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to force its way in, you integrate it to the liberately.
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You give yourself controlled doses of positive chaos before the
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pressure builds to a breaking point. This means, as you
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take on new disciplined behaviors and establish order over your life,
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which is good and necessary and you should do it,
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you simultaneously build in structured opportunities for the opposite, not
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as a reward after the work, but as a compatible
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part of the system, a balancing part of the system.
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Instead of a complete breakdown. In diet, it's conscious variety
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in the healthy food you eat. Instead of burning out
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on your business and abandoning it for a week, it's
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booking extreme vacations and relaxing breaks that give you variety.
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Instead of breaking down from months of focused work on
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one project to chase five new ones, it's just adding
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regular creative brainstorming sessions within the project you're already committed to.
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You're still oscillating, you're still moving between order and chaos.
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But the amplitude is manageable. The wave is smooth, and
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because it's smooth, the overall trajectory stays upward. And here
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is what you discover when the wave gets smooth, when
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you aren't paying the high price of violent breakdowns, the guilt,
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the loss of progress, and the damaged relationships. In the
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weeks of recovery, you realize that chaotic beauty can be
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incredibly RESTful and energizing. More than that, it builds tension,
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the good kind. When you give yourself healthy levels of experimentation, exploration,
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and play. It's not you being undisciplined, it's you being
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charged up for your discipline. It creates a kind of
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creative tension that makes you want to push into the
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next phase of disciplined work with more energy than you
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had before. This is the part that the disciplined obsessed
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crowd completely misses. They treat chaos as the enemy, the
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thing that pulls you off course. But chaos is where
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all possibility line. It's where new ideas come from. It's
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where the breakthrough insight shows up that restructures everything you've
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been working on. If you suppress it entirely, you end
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up on a straight line that eventually flatlines or crashes
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because you've cut yourself off from the source of everything interesting.
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If you let it explode uncontrolled, you get the violent crash,
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But if you integrate it deliberately, you get a smooth
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wave that trends upward indefinitely. The practical version of this
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comes down to four things. Awareness, anticipation, acceptance, and action.
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Awareness means recognizing that you have genuine needs for both
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order and chaos, and noticing when the balance is shifting.
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When the discipline starts to feel oppressive rather than empowering.
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That's a signal that you're not weak, but that the
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system needs the other input. Anticipation means planning for the
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shift before it be comes a crisis. If you know
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from experience that you can sustain about three months of intense,
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focused work before the need for chaos takes over, don't
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wait until month four to address it. Build the release
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valve in month two, and then acceptance means stopping the
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war with yourself. The cycle between order and chaos isn't
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a character flaw. It's how human beings work. You're not
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failing when you need to pull back from peak discipline.
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You're oscillating the same way an economy oscillates, the same
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way every natural system oscillates. And then action means actually
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doing something with this awareness, consciously choosing what kind of
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chaos you introduce rather than letting the breakdown choose for you,
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ramping down production before you crash, passing off work before
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you burn out, stepping away calmly instead of storming off
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in frustration. Eventually, performance will dip in anyway. Your needs
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for exploration or adventure or rest will become stronger than
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your current workload can accommodate. That's fine. That's the wave
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dipping before the growth line for a while. But if
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you're already planning for it, already aware of the shifting needs,
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the dip is gentle. It's a smooth curve, not a cliff,
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and you come out of it faster, with more energy,
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ready for the next upswing, because you didn't blow up
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everything you'd built along the way. Ray Dahlio says, the
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difference between a beautiful deleveraging and an ugly one is
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00:10:34.440 --> 00:10:38.440
whether the correction is managed or whether it's spirals. The
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00:10:38.480 --> 00:10:42.240
same is true for you. The oscillation is going to happen.
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You're going to have ups and downs. The only question
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00:10:45.720 --> 00:10:48.360
is whether you manage it or whether it manages you.
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If this resonates, go to Josh terryplace dot com and
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00:10:51.799 --> 00:10:54.039
book a call with me. I work with people who
164
00:10:54.039 --> 00:10:57.559
are caught in violent oscillations between high performance followed by
165
00:10:57.600 --> 00:11:01.879
breakdown discipline followed by self savage, and we smooth out
166
00:11:01.879 --> 00:11:04.559
the wave. We figure out what kind of chaos your
167
00:11:04.639 --> 00:11:08.039
system actually needs and build it into the structure so
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00:11:08.200 --> 00:11:13.440
growth stays consistent and the crashes stop. Chaos isn't the enemy,
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00:11:13.799 --> 00:11:16.639
it's the part of life that holds all the possibilities.
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Let's make sure you can tap into it without tearing
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00:11:20.080 --> 00:11:21.039
everything apart.
1
00:00:00.720 --> 00:00:04.480
Ray Dahlio has a video called How the Economic Machine
2
00:00:04.519 --> 00:00:09.119
Works that changed how I think about personal growth, not economics,
3
00:00:09.560 --> 00:00:12.279
but how to become a better human. In the video,
4
00:00:12.519 --> 00:00:16.600
Dahlio draws a graph. There's a straight line moving upward,
5
00:00:16.879 --> 00:00:21.160
and that's productivity growth, the slow, steady increase in how
6
00:00:21.239 --> 00:00:24.640
much an economy can produce over time. And then there's
7
00:00:24.679 --> 00:00:28.920
this wave oscillating around it, swinging above the line during
8
00:00:29.000 --> 00:00:33.560
expansion and below it during contraction. That wave is the
9
00:00:33.640 --> 00:00:37.600
debt cycle, and Dahlio makes something clear that most people miss.
10
00:00:38.119 --> 00:00:41.759
The wave isn't the problem. Debt cycles are a natural,
11
00:00:41.960 --> 00:00:46.840
functional part of how economies grow. People borrow, invest, spend,
12
00:00:46.960 --> 00:00:50.640
and that spending becomes someone else's income. The cycle itself
13
00:00:50.840 --> 00:00:55.920
is healthy. The problem is amplitude. When the wave is smooth,
14
00:00:56.520 --> 00:01:01.200
gentle oscillations trending upward, the economy grows and people prosper.
15
00:01:01.640 --> 00:01:06.239
When the wave gets violent, steep spikes followed by devastating crashes,
16
00:01:06.560 --> 00:01:09.599
that's when you get the Great Depression, the two thousand
17
00:01:09.599 --> 00:01:13.439
and eight financial crisis Japan in nineteen eighty nine, the
18
00:01:13.519 --> 00:01:17.319
amplitude got too extreme and the system couldn't absorb the swing.
19
00:01:17.840 --> 00:01:20.840
I looked at that graph and realized it's also the
20
00:01:20.840 --> 00:01:25.040
most accurate picture of what personal development actually looks like.
21
00:01:25.760 --> 00:01:28.280
My name is Josh Terry. I help business owners work
22
00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:31.640
through the emotional, mental, and performance issues that hold them
23
00:01:31.680 --> 00:01:35.120
back from making better decisions and taking more action. If
24
00:01:35.120 --> 00:01:36.680
you'd like to work with me, you can book a
25
00:01:36.680 --> 00:01:39.480
call in the description below or go to apply dot
26
00:01:39.519 --> 00:01:42.719
Josh terryplays dot com and one of the most common
27
00:01:42.799 --> 00:01:48.239
patterns I work with is exactly this. Ambitious people caught
28
00:01:48.400 --> 00:01:54.719
in a violent oscillation between discipline and breakdown, order and chaos,
29
00:01:55.239 --> 00:01:59.719
peak performance and self sabotage. The wave is too steep
30
00:01:59.799 --> 00:02:03.599
in both directions, and it's tearing them apart. Here's what
31
00:02:03.640 --> 00:02:06.560
that cycle looks like in real life. You decide to
32
00:02:06.560 --> 00:02:11.960
get your life together. You apply discipline, diet, schedule, systems, structure.
33
00:02:12.319 --> 00:02:15.400
You start performing at a higher level. Things are working,
34
00:02:15.719 --> 00:02:20.400
You feel in control, and then unable to stand the
35
00:02:20.439 --> 00:02:24.039
control any longer you break. The diet goes out the window,
36
00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:28.479
the creative project gets abandoned, the schedule collapses. You rebel
37
00:02:28.840 --> 00:02:33.039
against everything you just built, either by telling yourself you
38
00:02:33.080 --> 00:02:35.439
deserve a break because you earned it, or by simply
39
00:02:35.520 --> 00:02:39.360
losing the willpower to maintain what you've constructed. The chaotic
40
00:02:39.479 --> 00:02:42.800
phase comes with a price. You wake up with a hangover,
41
00:02:43.000 --> 00:02:46.280
or a pile of miss deadlines, or a broken business structure,
42
00:02:46.280 --> 00:02:49.520
and a lot of guilt. So you tell yourself, next time,
43
00:02:49.840 --> 00:02:52.680
I'll be more disciplined, I won't let this happen again,
44
00:02:53.360 --> 00:02:59.719
and the cycle repeats. Order chaos, order chaos, hopefully trending
45
00:02:59.800 --> 00:03:04.240
up over time through education and experience, but the swings
46
00:03:04.280 --> 00:03:08.719
are violent and they're exhausting. This is the pattern most
47
00:03:08.719 --> 00:03:11.879
people live in, and the standard advice makes it worse
48
00:03:12.240 --> 00:03:15.759
because the standard advice says the solution is more disciplined,
49
00:03:16.120 --> 00:03:20.240
which just makes the upswing steeper and the inevitable crash harder.
50
00:03:21.159 --> 00:03:24.479
Here's why the chaos isn't the problem. A straight line
51
00:03:24.599 --> 00:03:29.560
moving upwards sounds good in theory, steady, consistent, disciplined growth,
52
00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:34.240
but in reality, that's a life with no space for creativity, surprise, beauty,
53
00:03:34.360 --> 00:03:39.120
or exploration. It's not sustainable and it's not desirable. Nobody
54
00:03:39.199 --> 00:03:41.960
actually wants to live on a straight line, and a
55
00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:45.479
life of total chaos is equally destructive. It might be
56
00:03:45.520 --> 00:03:48.400
bright and exciting, but the bills don't get paid. The
57
00:03:48.439 --> 00:03:52.319
deadlines get missed and you behave too unpredictably to maintain
58
00:03:52.360 --> 00:03:57.080
relationships or build. Anything that lasts absolute order or absolute
59
00:03:57.159 --> 00:04:01.759
chaos is hell. They're both streams that the human system
60
00:04:01.800 --> 00:04:06.960
can't sustain what you actually need. What Dahlio's graph shows
61
00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:12.439
in economic terms is a smooth wave trending upward periods
62
00:04:12.520 --> 00:04:15.759
where you're performing at a higher level in some areas,
63
00:04:15.800 --> 00:04:19.360
and periods or performance dips as other needs take over.
64
00:04:20.160 --> 00:04:24.240
The oscillation isn't the enemy, it's the shape of healthy growth.
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00:04:25.120 --> 00:04:28.360
The question is whether the wave is smooth or violent.
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And this is where most people get it wrong. When
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the inevitable need for chaos arrives, and it will because
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you're a human being with a genuine need for novelty, play, exploration,
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and more, most people don't choose it. It chooses them.
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They wait until the pressure builds so high that the
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system breaks, and then the chaos that floods in isn't chosen.
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It's reactive. It's a binge, a burnout, or a breakdown.
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That's the equivalent of Dahlio's bubble and crash cycle, where
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pe people borrow money to get better results and then
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they run out of money and crash. You overleveraged on discipline,
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You overleveraged on commitment. You borrowed against your own creative
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and emotional needs for too long, and when the correction comes,
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it's not a gentle dip below the line, it's a crash.
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The people I work with who run companies see this
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pattern in themselves constantly. They'll operate at peak performance for months,
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executing flawlessly, making great decisions, building momentum, and then the
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crash comes. A week of bad decisions, a fight with
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their partner that seems to come out of nowhere, a
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sudden loss of motivation that makes no sense given how
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well things were going, But it makes perfect sense. They
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overleveraged on order. The correction was inevitable. The only question
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was how violent it would be. So here's the framework
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for smoothing out the wave. Instead of waiting for chaos
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to force its way in, you integrate it to the liberately.
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You give yourself controlled doses of positive chaos before the
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pressure builds to a breaking point. This means, as you
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take on new disciplined behaviors and establish order over your life,
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which is good and necessary and you should do it,
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you simultaneously build in structured opportunities for the opposite, not
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as a reward after the work, but as a compatible
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part of the system, a balancing part of the system.
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Instead of a complete breakdown. In diet, it's conscious variety
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in the healthy food you eat. Instead of burning out
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on your business and abandoning it for a week, it's
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booking extreme vacations and relaxing breaks that give you variety.
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Instead of breaking down from months of focused work on
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one project to chase five new ones, it's just adding
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regular creative brainstorming sessions within the project you're already committed to.
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You're still oscillating, you're still moving between order and chaos.
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But the amplitude is manageable. The wave is smooth, and
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because it's smooth, the overall trajectory stays upward. And here
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is what you discover when the wave gets smooth, when
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you aren't paying the high price of violent breakdowns, the guilt,
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the loss of progress, and the damaged relationships. In the
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weeks of recovery, you realize that chaotic beauty can be
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incredibly RESTful and energizing. More than that, it builds tension,
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the good kind. When you give yourself healthy levels of experimentation, exploration,
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and play. It's not you being undisciplined, it's you being
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charged up for your discipline. It creates a kind of
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creative tension that makes you want to push into the
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next phase of disciplined work with more energy than you
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had before. This is the part that the disciplined obsessed
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crowd completely misses. They treat chaos as the enemy, the
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thing that pulls you off course. But chaos is where
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all possibility line. It's where new ideas come from. It's
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where the breakthrough insight shows up that restructures everything you've
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been working on. If you suppress it entirely, you end
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up on a straight line that eventually flatlines or crashes
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because you've cut yourself off from the source of everything interesting.
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If you let it explode uncontrolled, you get the violent crash,
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But if you integrate it deliberately, you get a smooth
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wave that trends upward indefinitely. The practical version of this
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comes down to four things. Awareness, anticipation, acceptance, and action.
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Awareness means recognizing that you have genuine needs for both
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order and chaos, and noticing when the balance is shifting.
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When the discipline starts to feel oppressive rather than empowering.
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That's a signal that you're not weak, but that the
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system needs the other input. Anticipation means planning for the
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shift before it be comes a crisis. If you know
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from experience that you can sustain about three months of intense,
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focused work before the need for chaos takes over, don't
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wait until month four to address it. Build the release
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valve in month two, and then acceptance means stopping the
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war with yourself. The cycle between order and chaos isn't
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a character flaw. It's how human beings work. You're not
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failing when you need to pull back from peak discipline.
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You're oscillating the same way an economy oscillates, the same
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way every natural system oscillates. And then action means actually
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doing something with this awareness, consciously choosing what kind of
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chaos you introduce rather than letting the breakdown choose for you,
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ramping down production before you crash, passing off work before
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you burn out, stepping away calmly instead of storming off
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in frustration. Eventually, performance will dip in anyway. Your needs
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for exploration or adventure or rest will become stronger than
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your current workload can accommodate. That's fine. That's the wave
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dipping before the growth line for a while. But if
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you're already planning for it, already aware of the shifting needs,
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the dip is gentle. It's a smooth curve, not a cliff,
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and you come out of it faster, with more energy,
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ready for the next upswing, because you didn't blow up
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everything you'd built along the way. Ray Dahlio says, the
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difference between a beautiful deleveraging and an ugly one is
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whether the correction is managed or whether it's spirals. The
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same is true for you. The oscillation is going to happen.
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You're going to have ups and downs. The only question
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is whether you manage it or whether it manages you.
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If this resonates, go to Josh terryplace dot com and
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book a call with me. I work with people who
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are caught in violent oscillations between high performance followed by
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breakdown discipline followed by self savage, and we smooth out
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the wave. We figure out what kind of chaos your
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system actually needs and build it into the structure so
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growth stays consistent and the crashes stop. Chaos isn't the enemy,
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it's the part of life that holds all the possibilities.
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Let's make sure you can tap into it without tearing
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everything apart.
