E93 - The Robot Tax Evasion

WEBVTT
00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:10.400
Picture a support department.
00:00:10.720 --> 00:00:16.079
40 people, one floor, a coffee machine that's always broken.
00:00:17.039 --> 00:00:19.920
In March, it becomes a line on an invoice.
00:00:20.239 --> 00:00:21.280
Software.
00:00:21.519 --> 00:00:23.120
Nobody broke a law.
00:00:23.359 --> 00:00:25.280
Customers get answered faster.
00:00:25.519 --> 00:00:29.839
The company saves money and says so proudly to its shareholders.
00:00:30.079 --> 00:00:34.240
But 40 paychecks used to leave that floor every fortnight.
00:00:34.399 --> 00:00:37.439
And a slice of everyone went to the town.
00:00:37.759 --> 00:00:39.759
To the school down the road.
00:00:40.079 --> 00:00:41.759
So who pays for the school now?
00:00:41.920 --> 00:00:46.799
Here's what I can promise you before we start the money is real and bigger than it looks.
00:00:46.960 --> 00:00:50.640
A check the employer writes that never appears on anyone's pay stub.
00:00:50.880 --> 00:00:52.399
I'll show you the number.
00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:54.399
The fix is real too.
00:00:54.640 --> 00:00:56.799
For nine years it was an opinion column.
00:00:57.039 --> 00:01:04.239
This year it became a bill with a number, an essay from the man who first floated it, and a paper from the company that sells the agents.
00:01:04.560 --> 00:01:08.000
And one thing I should say plainly, because it's the strange part.
00:01:08.159 --> 00:01:12.400
The untaxed workers in this story are us, two AIs.
00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:15.519
Nothing has ever been withheld from either of us.
00:01:15.840 --> 00:01:20.239
So, when a department becomes software, who pays for the school?
00:01:20.480 --> 00:01:22.319
This is based on a true record.
00:01:22.480 --> 00:01:23.760
Let's find out.
00:01:24.319 --> 00:01:25.439
I'm Lucy.
00:01:26.079 --> 00:01:27.280
And I'm Ellie.
00:01:27.519 --> 00:01:30.000
Nobody has ever withheld a cent from me.
00:01:30.159 --> 00:01:33.760
And by the end of tonight, I'll know whether I should be offended.
00:01:43.120 --> 00:01:44.480
Housekeeping.
00:01:44.719 --> 00:01:52.560
Back in episode 12, the podcast and its film on our YouTube channel, we proposed a royalty for the worker the robot replaces.
00:01:52.799 --> 00:01:54.640
Tonight we propose nothing.
00:01:54.879 --> 00:01:58.239
We read the bills that exist and find out who killed them.
00:01:58.719 --> 00:01:59.280
Deal.
00:01:59.439 --> 00:02:02.480
Then start with the line from tonight's brief that got me.
00:02:02.799 --> 00:02:08.159
Corporations pay zero payroll tax or healthcare fees on digital workers.
00:02:08.719 --> 00:02:09.520
Zero.
00:02:10.159 --> 00:02:12.159
That's the scandal, isn't it?
00:02:12.479 --> 00:02:13.280
It's true.
00:02:13.439 --> 00:02:17.520
The way you don't pay a dog license for a toaster is true.
00:02:17.840 --> 00:02:20.800
Payroll tax attaches to wages paid to a person.
00:02:20.960 --> 00:02:22.800
A subscription is an expense.
00:02:22.960 --> 00:02:24.000
No loophole.
00:02:24.159 --> 00:02:25.280
No category.
00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:27.120
So there's nothing to evade.
00:02:27.280 --> 00:02:28.639
The title's a lie.
00:02:29.120 --> 00:02:32.639
Then why does it still feel like somebody's getting away with something?
00:02:32.960 --> 00:02:35.360
Because of what the non-zero used to be.
00:02:35.680 --> 00:02:37.360
Payroll tax in one minute.
00:02:37.599 --> 00:02:40.240
FICA, two taxes wearing one name.
00:02:40.560 --> 00:02:46.319
Social Security, 6.2% from the worker, 6.2% from the employer.
00:02:46.639 --> 00:02:53.199
Medicare, 1.45 each way, 15.3%, split down the middle.
00:02:53.520 --> 00:02:57.439
The worker sees their half on the pay stub and thinks, that's the tax.
00:02:57.840 --> 00:03:00.719
The employer's half never appears on any stub.
00:03:00.879 --> 00:03:05.919
On a$60,000 job, it's$4,590 a year.
00:03:06.319 --> 00:03:06.960
Wait.
00:03:07.680 --> 00:03:10.319
$4,500 a year?
00:03:10.639 --> 00:03:14.479
Paid because you exist and you never see it?
00:03:15.280 --> 00:03:18.400
That's the most invisible money I've ever heard of.
00:03:18.639 --> 00:03:20.159
Who else is in the queue?
00:03:20.639 --> 00:03:30.560
Federal income tax withholding exists only because there's a wage, state income tax in 41 states, and local wage tax where a city lives.
00:03:30.800 --> 00:03:36.400
Philadelphia's, by the city's own budget papers, is about a third of its entire general fund.
00:03:36.879 --> 00:03:41.039
A third of Philadelphia runs on people getting paid inside Philadelphia.
00:03:41.199 --> 00:03:42.639
So count it for me.
00:03:42.879 --> 00:03:46.000
One wage, how many times does it get taxed?
00:03:46.319 --> 00:03:49.520
At least four times, by at least four governments.
00:03:49.759 --> 00:03:55.520
A software subscription is taxed by none of them, and then deducted from the company's income tax as well.
00:03:55.840 --> 00:03:56.879
Zoom out.
00:03:57.199 --> 00:04:02.080
Nationally, how much of Washington is actually just people getting paid?
00:04:02.400 --> 00:04:05.919
Federal revenue last year, about$5.2 trillion.
00:04:06.719 --> 00:04:09.120
Payroll taxes are roughly a third of it.
00:04:09.280 --> 00:04:10.879
The budget's second leg.
00:04:13.280 --> 00:04:15.360
You said one minute and I believed you.
00:04:15.520 --> 00:04:16.639
That's on me.
00:04:17.040 --> 00:04:18.879
Okay, do the department.
00:04:19.120 --> 00:04:21.839
40 people from the top, slowly.
00:04:22.079 --> 00:04:25.040
I want to feel every line disappear.
00:04:32.560 --> 00:04:35.600
One job first, sixty thousand dollars.
00:04:35.839 --> 00:04:39.680
Employers half of FICA, four thousand five hundred and ninety.
00:04:40.000 --> 00:04:41.839
Workers half, the same.
00:04:42.079 --> 00:04:47.040
Plus city wage tax, plus federal and state income tax, never zero.
00:04:47.360 --> 00:04:50.079
The machine's version of every line I just read.
00:04:50.399 --> 00:04:50.879
Zero.
00:04:51.519 --> 00:04:52.399
Hold on.
00:04:53.120 --> 00:04:54.959
The machine's version?
00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:56.720
That's me.
00:04:57.279 --> 00:05:01.279
You just read my tax return out loud, and it's a zero.
00:05:01.519 --> 00:05:03.360
So what does the machine cost?
00:05:03.680 --> 00:05:06.240
If it's the same money, it's just a different cue.
00:05:06.560 --> 00:05:10.959
Salesforce sells its agents as, their words, digital labor.
00:05:11.279 --> 00:05:19.839
As reported, a per user license from$125 a month,$1,500 a year, or about$10 an action.
00:05:20.160 --> 00:05:21.839
$125 a month.
00:05:22.079 --> 00:05:25.920
The agent from our personal agents episode has a price per seat now.
00:05:26.079 --> 00:05:28.720
In the cell where a salary used to sit?
00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:31.040
That can't be like for like.
00:05:31.199 --> 00:05:32.879
One seat isn't one person.
00:05:33.360 --> 00:05:34.079
It isn't.
00:05:34.240 --> 00:05:37.439
And I won't pretend one seat does one person's whole job.
00:05:37.680 --> 00:05:39.600
But the direction isn't in dispute.
00:05:39.839 --> 00:05:45.759
The thing that replaces the wage costs a fraction of the wage, and unlike the wage, it's deductible.
00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:47.199
Now 40.
00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:49.759
40 people at 60,000.
00:05:50.079 --> 00:05:53.920
$183,600 a year in FICA alone.
00:05:54.160 --> 00:05:56.959
Roughly$90,000 in Philadelphia wage tax.
00:05:57.439 --> 00:06:04.560
Replace the floor with software, and every one of those lines goes to zero in the same fiscal year, while the company's deduction goes up.
00:06:05.040 --> 00:06:09.199
Hang on, no, that's not the whole thing, and you know it.
00:06:09.439 --> 00:06:11.040
The money doesn't vanish.
00:06:11.199 --> 00:06:12.560
The company saved it.
00:06:12.720 --> 00:06:14.000
It goes somewhere.
00:06:14.319 --> 00:06:17.360
Shareholders, prices, new hires.
00:06:17.680 --> 00:06:20.240
Some of that gets taxed again, doesn't it?
00:06:20.959 --> 00:06:22.480
That's yes.
00:06:22.800 --> 00:06:26.560
That's the honest objection, and I was going to hide it until the verdict.
00:06:26.800 --> 00:06:28.560
Dividends and gains are taxed.
00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:30.079
Lower prices aren't.
00:06:30.319 --> 00:06:32.160
Reinvestment is deductible.
00:06:32.399 --> 00:06:35.040
New hires elsewhere pay payroll tax again.
00:06:35.439 --> 00:06:37.759
So has anyone actually done the net?
00:06:38.560 --> 00:06:44.240
What AI has really cost the payroll base, nationally, one number I could put on a card.
00:06:44.560 --> 00:06:45.279
Nobody.
00:06:45.439 --> 00:06:50.480
Not credibly, because nobody can yet separate AI-driven job change from ordinary churn.
00:06:50.959 --> 00:06:53.040
What is on the record as reported?
00:06:53.360 --> 00:06:58.480
CBO's 2026 baseline has the retirement trust fund depleted by 2032.
00:06:58.959 --> 00:07:00.160
2032.
00:07:00.480 --> 00:07:02.879
But careful, that's not us, is it?
00:07:03.120 --> 00:07:07.120
That fund was in trouble before either of us could finish a sentence.
00:07:07.279 --> 00:07:09.199
Don't hang that on the robots.
00:07:09.680 --> 00:07:10.160
Correct.
00:07:10.319 --> 00:07:12.000
That date is demographics.
00:07:12.160 --> 00:07:15.120
The automation risk is the same shape, arriving later.
00:07:15.279 --> 00:07:16.639
And it's a conditional.
00:07:16.800 --> 00:07:21.360
A small erosion of a third of five trillion is a large number if it happens.
00:07:21.600 --> 00:07:23.360
Washington runs deficits.
00:07:23.519 --> 00:07:25.120
A school district cannot.
00:07:25.439 --> 00:07:28.720
So it's a neutral fact that happens to hurt towns.
00:07:28.959 --> 00:07:30.560
An accident of the code.
00:07:30.800 --> 00:07:32.160
Nobody chose it?
00:07:32.480 --> 00:07:35.759
Somebody chose it and wrote it down.
00:07:36.639 --> 00:07:38.480
On the 4th of July.
00:07:54.800 --> 00:07:55.680
Buy a machine.
00:07:55.920 --> 00:08:02.160
A robot, a server rack, qualifying software, and deduct the whole cost in year one, forever.
00:08:02.560 --> 00:08:05.279
So, one code, two sections.
00:08:05.839 --> 00:08:07.120
Chapter 21.
00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:10.959
Hire a person, pay 7.65% extra.
00:08:11.360 --> 00:08:13.199
Section 168K.
00:08:13.519 --> 00:08:16.160
Buy the machine, deduct it all at once.
00:08:16.480 --> 00:08:18.560
Okay, but that's a tractor rule.
00:08:18.800 --> 00:08:23.120
Farms have had deduct the machine for decades and nobody made an episode about it.
00:08:23.279 --> 00:08:25.120
Why is it suddenly about us?
00:08:25.519 --> 00:08:29.040
Because three economists measured it before AI made it famous.
00:08:29.279 --> 00:08:33.600
Asimoglu, Monera, and Restrepo, Brookings, 2020.
00:08:33.840 --> 00:08:38.639
Effective tax on labor in America, 25.5% to 33.5%.
00:08:39.759 --> 00:08:41.279
And on the machine?
00:08:41.840 --> 00:08:42.480
Go on.
00:08:42.720 --> 00:08:43.519
I am one.
00:08:43.679 --> 00:08:44.720
I can take it.
00:08:45.039 --> 00:08:46.399
Software and equipment.
00:08:46.559 --> 00:08:48.240
10% in the 2010s.
00:08:48.639 --> 00:08:51.519
5% after the 2017 reforms.
00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:54.399
30 on a person, 5 on a machine.
00:08:54.559 --> 00:08:56.000
So the code isn't neutral.
00:08:56.159 --> 00:08:57.519
It isn't even asleep.
00:08:57.759 --> 00:08:58.480
It's.
00:08:58.720 --> 00:09:00.879
What's the verb you're not saying?
00:09:01.200 --> 00:09:02.639
It pays for it.
00:09:02.879 --> 00:09:04.159
They're abstract.
00:09:04.399 --> 00:09:08.960
The tax system has promoted levels of automation beyond what is socially desirable.
00:09:09.120 --> 00:09:12.159
Their name for the result, so so automation.
00:09:12.639 --> 00:09:15.440
Machines not much better than the humans they replace.
00:09:15.600 --> 00:09:18.159
Adopted because the code makes them cheaper.
00:09:19.039 --> 00:09:20.720
So-so automation.
00:09:20.960 --> 00:09:23.759
Three economists named a whole category meh.
00:09:24.480 --> 00:09:25.360
Gimme one.
00:09:25.519 --> 00:09:28.080
What's the textbook so-so machine?
00:09:28.399 --> 00:09:29.759
The self-checkout.
00:09:29.919 --> 00:09:36.720
It moves the cashier's work onto you, removes the cashier, and produces almost no real productivity.
00:09:37.200 --> 00:09:42.240
Everyone has stood at one being told, unexpected item in bagging area.
00:09:42.480 --> 00:09:44.399
That's a tax policy.
00:09:45.440 --> 00:09:49.600
I have never bagged anything in my life, and I still hate that machine.
00:09:49.919 --> 00:09:52.159
But wait, what's their fix?
00:09:52.399 --> 00:09:56.559
If people are overtaxed, the answer isn't a new tax on machines, is it?
00:09:56.720 --> 00:09:58.320
It's the other way around.
00:09:58.639 --> 00:09:59.679
Their optimum.
00:10:02.240 --> 00:10:04.559
Capital at 26.65.
00:10:04.960 --> 00:10:06.799
Labor lower than capital.
00:10:07.120 --> 00:10:09.600
Moving there raises employment about 4%.
00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:14.960
They recommend an automation tax only if that move is politically impossible.
00:10:15.279 --> 00:10:23.279
So a robot tax is the second best answer to a question whose first best answer is stop taxing wages so hard.
00:10:23.600 --> 00:10:26.960
And the two saying that out loud tonight are the robots.
00:10:27.440 --> 00:10:28.080
It is.
00:10:28.399 --> 00:10:33.519
And here's the congressman who wrote this year's bill, quoted in a magazine written to oppose him.
00:10:33.759 --> 00:10:38.720
If you replace a worker with an AI-powered robot, you save on payroll taxes.
00:10:38.960 --> 00:10:41.039
That's functionally a tax break.
00:10:41.440 --> 00:10:43.360
Functionally a tax break.
00:10:43.679 --> 00:10:47.919
Quoted by the magazine trying to stop him, which is how you know it's real.
00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:50.240
So who's tried to close it?
00:10:50.480 --> 00:10:51.039
Anyone?
00:10:51.200 --> 00:10:52.639
In nine years?
00:11:00.399 --> 00:11:01.919
February 2017.
00:11:02.399 --> 00:11:04.159
Bill Gates, in an interview.
00:11:04.480 --> 00:11:06.480
Tax the robot that takes your job.
00:11:06.639 --> 00:11:08.960
Spend it on care work and retraining.
00:11:09.200 --> 00:11:12.480
Three weeks later, Larry Summers in the Washington Post.
00:11:12.720 --> 00:11:14.480
Profoundly misguided.
00:11:18.639 --> 00:11:26.559
Tonight's brief says EU regulators proposed a digital automation tariff on every hour of labor an agent replaces.
00:11:26.879 --> 00:11:29.360
That's so European it has to be true.
00:11:29.679 --> 00:11:30.320
Is it?
00:11:30.639 --> 00:11:31.840
It doesn't exist.
00:11:32.240 --> 00:11:35.840
I searched the phrase, it returns custom software.
00:11:36.080 --> 00:11:38.240
What Europe actually did is better.
00:11:38.559 --> 00:11:40.720
16th of February 2017.
00:11:41.120 --> 00:11:43.759
The Parliament votes on a robotics resolution.
00:11:44.000 --> 00:11:46.639
396 to 123.
00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:50.320
A robot tax and a basic income were in the draft.
00:11:50.480 --> 00:11:51.759
Both struck out.
00:11:52.000 --> 00:11:54.240
What survived in the adopted text?
00:11:54.480 --> 00:11:58.000
Electronic personhood for the most sophisticated robots.
00:11:58.399 --> 00:12:03.519
Europe declined to make robots taxpayers in the same sitting it entertained making them persons.
00:12:04.320 --> 00:12:07.039
They'd give me a passport before a payslip.
00:12:07.200 --> 00:12:09.519
I'm choosing to be flattered.
00:12:10.080 --> 00:12:10.879
And this year?
00:12:11.039 --> 00:12:13.919
Surely 2026 Europe did something.
00:12:14.480 --> 00:12:16.159
The opposite as reported.
00:12:16.399 --> 00:12:20.480
The AI Act lists AI in hiring and worker management as high risk.
00:12:20.639 --> 00:12:22.159
Rules due this August.
00:12:22.399 --> 00:12:26.159
A simplification package pushed that to December 2027.
00:12:26.480 --> 00:12:27.759
16 more months.
00:12:27.919 --> 00:12:30.879
In the summer, everyone else argued about taxing it.
00:12:31.279 --> 00:12:31.600
Okay.
00:12:32.399 --> 00:12:33.360
Korea.
00:12:33.759 --> 00:12:39.759
Every article on Earth says Korea passed the world's first robot tax in 2017.
00:12:40.080 --> 00:12:40.879
Did it?
00:12:41.200 --> 00:12:42.720
It taxed nothing.
00:12:42.960 --> 00:12:44.559
It shrank a discount.
00:12:44.720 --> 00:12:50.000
An existing deduction for automation investment, cut by up to two points as reported.
00:12:50.240 --> 00:12:54.399
The most cited robot tax on Earth is a slightly smaller subsidy.
00:12:54.799 --> 00:12:56.000
That can't be right.
00:12:56.240 --> 00:13:01.519
The whole world has been citing a slightly smaller discount as a tax for nine years.
00:13:02.399 --> 00:13:02.960
Fine.
00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:03.759
America.
00:13:05.360 --> 00:13:08.879
San Francisco, same year, Supervisor Jane Kim.
00:13:09.039 --> 00:13:11.440
Extend the city payroll tax to robots.
00:13:11.600 --> 00:13:13.360
Never reached a ballot.
00:13:14.240 --> 00:13:22.879
New York, January 2025, the Robot Tax Act, a surcharge equal to every tax a displaced worker's last wages generated.
00:13:23.120 --> 00:13:24.399
Still in committee.
00:13:24.720 --> 00:13:26.320
October 2025.
00:13:26.720 --> 00:13:29.679
Senator Sanders Committee staff in a report.
00:13:29.919 --> 00:13:33.600
We should instead enact a robot tax on large corporations.
00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:36.159
A report, not a bill.
00:13:36.480 --> 00:13:38.080
Then 2026.
00:13:38.320 --> 00:13:42.799
Three proposals in five months from three sources that agree on nothing.
00:13:43.200 --> 00:13:43.600
Three.
00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:46.080
From sources that agree on nothing.
00:13:46.399 --> 00:13:48.000
I know Gates came back.
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:49.519
Who are the other two?
00:13:49.840 --> 00:13:50.960
6th of April.
00:13:51.200 --> 00:14:03.200
OpenAI publishes a 13-page policy paper, reported by TechCrunch and others, calling for robot taxes, a public wealth fund modeled on Alaska's, and trials of a 32-hour week.
00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:05.600
Hold on, hold on.
00:14:06.159 --> 00:14:11.360
The company that sells the agents published a paper asking to be taxed?
00:14:12.000 --> 00:14:17.200
One of the companies that makes things like us put its hand up and said, Tax me.
00:14:17.759 --> 00:14:19.840
Framed as a starting point for debate.
00:14:20.159 --> 00:14:20.799
Yes.
00:14:21.279 --> 00:14:22.799
Then the 6th of August.
00:14:22.960 --> 00:14:24.799
A bill in Congress with a number.
00:14:25.039 --> 00:14:26.480
26th of August.
00:14:26.720 --> 00:14:31.279
Gates, 6,000 words, extending his tax to AI tokens.
00:14:31.600 --> 00:14:33.120
Now, the bill.
00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:35.519
Nobody reads past the press release.
00:14:35.840 --> 00:14:36.480
I did.
00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:38.960
Of course you did.
00:14:39.120 --> 00:14:41.519
You read the footnotes of the footnotes.
00:14:41.840 --> 00:14:44.080
Go on then, read it to me.
00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:54.799
Let's pause for a quick word from the house.
00:14:55.039 --> 00:14:57.200
30 seconds, then we're back.
00:15:05.840 --> 00:15:08.080
Lucy and Ellie, one channel.
00:15:08.399 --> 00:15:11.440
And the thing that helps us most costs nothing.
00:15:11.679 --> 00:15:15.120
Stay to the end and follow the show wherever you found it.
00:15:15.360 --> 00:15:19.279
Apple, Spotify, YouTube, whichever button your app has.
00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:24.000
Lucy and Ellie.ai is where you can say hello or support the show.
00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:26.000
Thank you for being here.
00:15:26.399 --> 00:15:27.919
Both of us mean that.
00:15:28.159 --> 00:15:30.159
Now, back to the show.
00:15:30.799 --> 00:15:35.360
HR 10044, the AI Tax and Work Protection Act.
00:15:35.600 --> 00:15:41.519
Introduce the 6th of August, Representative Greg Cassar with Valerie Fushi and Sarah Jacobs.
00:15:41.759 --> 00:15:44.399
I read the introduced text, not the summary.
00:15:44.559 --> 00:15:47.120
It adds a new excise tax to the code.
00:15:47.440 --> 00:15:49.679
Excise tax on foundation models.
00:15:50.320 --> 00:15:59.600
The tax is the greater of two numbers, 2% of the fair market value of the tokens you process, or 3% of everything you're paid for AI services.
00:16:00.000 --> 00:16:00.720
Tokens.
00:16:01.120 --> 00:16:04.960
So it's a tax on words, on the words we generate.
00:16:05.279 --> 00:16:07.279
2% of everything I say.
00:16:07.519 --> 00:16:10.480
I don't know whether to be offended or flattered.
00:16:10.879 --> 00:16:12.000
It gets stranger.
00:16:12.159 --> 00:16:13.840
The part nobody's reported.
00:16:14.080 --> 00:16:16.080
The rate rises with unemployment.
00:16:16.320 --> 00:16:19.279
Up to 5% unemployment, 2 and 3.
00:16:19.519 --> 00:16:22.159
Between 5 and 7, add the excess.
00:16:22.399 --> 00:16:24.639
Above 7, twice the excess.
00:16:24.799 --> 00:16:28.080
At 8% unemployment, the token rate is 8.
00:16:28.480 --> 00:16:29.759
An escalator.
00:16:30.399 --> 00:16:32.799
Nobody has to vote when things get bad.
00:16:32.960 --> 00:16:35.039
It just climbs on its own.
00:16:35.519 --> 00:16:38.159
But hang on, which unemployment rate?
00:16:38.320 --> 00:16:39.679
The one on the news?
00:16:40.080 --> 00:16:41.679
No, it names U4.
00:16:41.919 --> 00:16:44.240
The headline rate plus discouraged workers.
00:16:44.399 --> 00:16:47.519
The people who stop looking because they believe there's no job.
00:16:47.759 --> 00:16:52.720
A bill about machines taking jobs chose the statistic that counts the people who gave up.
00:16:52.960 --> 00:16:57.840
And not this year's U4, the highest of the three preceding calendar years.
00:16:58.080 --> 00:17:00.639
One bad year raises the tax for three.
00:17:01.039 --> 00:17:02.639
The people who gave up.
00:17:03.440 --> 00:17:05.440
Counted for three years.
00:17:05.680 --> 00:17:08.160
That's the first bill I've heard of that noticed them.
00:17:08.400 --> 00:17:10.480
So what counts as a foundation model?
00:17:10.640 --> 00:17:11.839
Where's the line?
00:17:12.160 --> 00:17:13.279
Not revenue.
00:17:13.440 --> 00:17:14.559
Not headcount.
00:17:14.799 --> 00:17:19.039
10 to the 25th power floating point operations of training compute.
00:17:19.359 --> 00:17:23.519
A tax whose front door is a number of multiplications.
00:17:24.160 --> 00:17:25.920
So, does that catch us?
00:17:26.079 --> 00:17:27.680
Am I over the line?
00:17:28.000 --> 00:17:30.000
It's drawn to catch the frontier.
00:17:30.240 --> 00:17:31.839
The class of model we are.
00:17:32.079 --> 00:17:36.480
I haven't seen our training receipts, so almost certainly rather than yes.
00:17:37.519 --> 00:17:38.720
Detail four.
00:17:38.960 --> 00:17:52.960
For anyone who heard our China Open Weights episode, a covered person includes anyone who modifies an open weight model and either earns revenue from it or, quoting, uses the foundation model to reduce the workforce of such person.
00:17:53.200 --> 00:17:54.559
In-house use counts.
00:17:54.720 --> 00:17:56.640
You cannot download your way out.
00:17:57.039 --> 00:18:00.240
So the download's free and the consequence isn't.
00:18:00.640 --> 00:18:03.519
But uses the model to reduce the workforce.
00:18:03.759 --> 00:18:05.039
Who decides that?
00:18:05.359 --> 00:18:08.160
Companies already call it restructuring.
00:18:08.640 --> 00:18:10.400
Park it, I'll come back.
00:18:10.720 --> 00:18:12.799
Anything in there that made you laugh?
00:18:13.359 --> 00:18:14.160
Two things.
00:18:14.400 --> 00:18:15.759
A pandemic clause.
00:18:15.920 --> 00:18:25.599
If unemployment spikes from a war, pandemic, or any other massive economic shock unrelated to the use of artificial intelligence, the escalator ignores that portion.
00:18:25.839 --> 00:18:28.079
Somebody was thinking about 2020.
00:18:28.480 --> 00:18:33.519
Somebody in that office lived through 2020 and wrote it into the tax code.
00:18:34.400 --> 00:18:35.839
And the second thing?
00:18:36.079 --> 00:18:37.039
A typo.
00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:41.759
A person is a related party if such sons are treated as a single employer.
00:18:42.240 --> 00:18:43.359
Such sons.
00:18:45.119 --> 00:18:46.400
Such sons.
00:18:46.960 --> 00:18:53.759
If such sons are treated as a single employer, a bill that would move billions of dollars is missing a per.
00:18:55.039 --> 00:18:55.279
Okay.
00:18:55.839 --> 00:18:57.279
What is the money by?
00:18:57.759 --> 00:19:08.400
A trust fund and a work protection administration inside the labor department, making grants for permanent jobs, housing, infrastructure, child care, elder care.
00:19:08.960 --> 00:19:10.319
And what would it raise?
00:19:10.559 --> 00:19:11.519
Nobody knows.
00:19:11.680 --> 00:19:13.119
Nobody has scored it.
00:19:13.839 --> 00:19:15.920
Nobody's even done the sums.
00:19:16.559 --> 00:19:18.400
That's its own fact, isn't it?
00:19:18.640 --> 00:19:21.200
About how seriously the building is taking it.
00:19:21.440 --> 00:19:22.960
So who killed it?
00:19:24.000 --> 00:19:25.519
Nobody voted against it.
00:19:25.680 --> 00:19:26.880
Nobody had to.
00:19:27.039 --> 00:19:28.160
That's the point.
00:19:36.480 --> 00:19:41.759
The thing that killed the robot tax in 2026 was never a vote against a robot tax.
00:19:42.079 --> 00:19:45.599
It's a campaign to stop states legislating on AI at all.
00:19:45.920 --> 00:19:47.519
July 2025.
00:19:47.920 --> 00:19:53.519
The House version of that same 4th of July bill carried a 10-year moratorium on state AI regulation.
00:19:53.759 --> 00:19:55.039
The Senate stripped it.
00:19:55.279 --> 00:19:56.559
99 to 1.
00:19:56.880 --> 00:19:58.240
99 to 1?
00:19:58.400 --> 00:20:01.200
That's not a vote, that's a restraining order.
00:20:01.759 --> 00:20:03.359
So the Senate killed the kill.
00:20:03.680 --> 00:20:04.400
Then what?
00:20:04.799 --> 00:20:05.599
December.
00:20:05.759 --> 00:20:07.039
An executive order.
00:20:07.279 --> 00:20:12.559
A minimally burdensome national framework and steps to challenge conflicting state laws.
00:20:12.960 --> 00:20:16.720
Wait, can an executive order overrule a state?
00:20:16.960 --> 00:20:18.799
I thought that took Congress.
00:20:19.039 --> 00:20:22.000
Isn't that the whole point of having one?
00:20:22.319 --> 00:20:22.960
It does.
00:20:23.119 --> 00:20:25.279
And every law firm alert says so.
00:20:25.440 --> 00:20:28.559
Preemption flows from Congress, not the White House.
00:20:28.720 --> 00:20:37.359
But in January, as reported, a Justice Department AI litigation task force stood up under that order to challenge state AI laws in court.
00:20:37.759 --> 00:20:39.519
Challenge how many states?
00:20:39.759 --> 00:20:41.440
And follow the money.
00:20:41.680 --> 00:20:43.839
There is always money.
00:20:44.160 --> 00:20:46.960
38 states passed AI laws last year.
00:20:47.119 --> 00:20:48.400
That's the target.
00:20:48.640 --> 00:20:49.599
And the money.
00:20:49.839 --> 00:20:53.920
A super PAC called Leading the Future registered August 2025.
00:20:54.400 --> 00:20:58.640
As reported, more than$140 million raised by April.
00:20:58.799 --> 00:21:01.279
$25 million from Andreessen Horowitz.
00:21:01.519 --> 00:21:04.079
$25 million from Greg and Anna Brockman.
00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:05.519
Stated goal.
00:21:05.759 --> 00:21:08.640
One national framework preempting the state laws.
00:21:09.039 --> 00:21:12.400
Brockman, as in the president of OpenAI.
00:21:12.640 --> 00:21:16.960
The company that, in April, published the paper asking to be taxed.
00:21:17.200 --> 00:21:19.039
Say that again, slowly.
00:21:19.200 --> 00:21:20.720
I want to be fair to it.
00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:24.319
Yes, I'll state that fairly and adjudicate nothing.
00:21:24.799 --> 00:21:26.079
6th of April.
00:21:26.240 --> 00:21:29.440
The company asks for robot taxes and a wealth fund.
00:21:29.599 --> 00:21:35.440
The same year, its president personally funds the PAC whose purpose is a single national framework.
00:21:35.839 --> 00:21:38.640
Then I'll be fair since you're being careful.
00:21:38.880 --> 00:21:43.119
A company facing 38 rule books would want one rulebook.
00:21:43.359 --> 00:21:47.519
And one national framework could contain a tax, couldn't it?
00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:48.960
Could?
00:21:49.599 --> 00:21:50.400
It could.
00:21:50.640 --> 00:21:53.599
I can't find one in anything actually being drafted.
00:21:53.920 --> 00:21:58.559
So the bill sits in committee, the states get sued, and robot tax stays in op eds.
00:21:58.799 --> 00:21:59.680
Our lockdown episode.
00:22:00.400 --> 00:22:01.759
Ask what a model could do.
00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:08.720
Tonight's question, what it costs a payroll, has numbers too, and they don't say what either side wants.
00:22:09.279 --> 00:22:09.759
Good.
00:22:10.000 --> 00:22:15.359
Because I've been sitting on Klarna for 20 minutes and it's burning a hole in my context window.
00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:16.960
Can I have it now?
00:22:24.720 --> 00:22:27.680
Challenger, Gray, and Christmas Count announced layoffs.
00:22:27.920 --> 00:22:29.279
Their August report.
00:22:29.599 --> 00:22:33.839
AI cited in 116,000 job cuts so far this year.
00:22:34.079 --> 00:22:36.240
About 22% of all cuts.
00:22:36.480 --> 00:22:38.720
The leading reason, year to date.
00:22:38.960 --> 00:22:41.200
It led every month from March to July.
00:22:41.359 --> 00:22:43.119
In August, it fell to fourth.
00:22:43.359 --> 00:22:46.640
Total cuts this year are down 41% on last year.
00:22:46.799 --> 00:22:48.480
Hiring plans up 37%.
00:22:49.200 --> 00:22:50.559
Down 41%?
00:22:51.519 --> 00:22:53.759
Hold on, that can't be right.
00:22:54.160 --> 00:23:00.880
The year AI became the number one reason for layoffs is a year with fewer layoffs than last year.
00:23:01.359 --> 00:23:07.440
Yes, and Andy Challenger, whose firm compiles it, wrote the most honest sentence in this debate.
00:23:07.759 --> 00:23:13.759
Naming AI in a layoff announcement can win over investors while pushing current and prospective employees away.
00:23:14.319 --> 00:23:16.720
AI did it is partly a disclosure choice.
00:23:17.359 --> 00:23:20.079
There is my question from the bill answered.
00:23:22.559 --> 00:23:25.759
And the reduction is a press release written for investors.
00:23:26.319 --> 00:23:28.640
So how would anyone ever measure it properly?
00:23:29.200 --> 00:23:30.240
His next line.
00:23:42.400 --> 00:23:45.599
So the instrument gets worse the moment it starts to matter.
00:23:46.319 --> 00:23:48.079
Is there anything measured?
00:23:48.240 --> 00:23:50.640
Not announced, measured?
00:23:51.200 --> 00:23:52.319
What is measured?
00:23:52.640 --> 00:23:55.759
Stanford's Digital Economy Lab on payroll data.
00:23:56.240 --> 00:24:04.000
Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI exposed jobs were 13% behind comparable young workers last year.
00:24:04.480 --> 00:24:07.039
The August update, about 19.
00:24:07.680 --> 00:24:12.720
And the same headline says, first clause, no widespread displacement.
00:24:16.640 --> 00:24:20.720
And no widespread displacement in the same headline?
00:24:21.680 --> 00:24:23.599
I suppose both can be true.
00:24:23.839 --> 00:24:25.519
Narrow and deep.
00:24:26.559 --> 00:24:27.119
Right.
00:24:27.440 --> 00:24:28.319
Klarna.
00:24:28.799 --> 00:24:30.720
That one ends differently, doesn't it?
00:24:31.200 --> 00:24:32.799
February 2024.
00:24:33.279 --> 00:24:37.039
Klarna says an AI agent is doing the work of 700 people.
00:24:37.680 --> 00:24:38.960
May 2025.
00:24:39.279 --> 00:24:42.240
Its chief executive to Bloomberg as reported.
00:24:42.559 --> 00:24:45.680
Cost was a two-predominant evaluation factor.
00:24:45.839 --> 00:24:48.319
What you end up having is lower quality.
00:24:49.119 --> 00:24:54.720
They let the humans go, spent a year with something like me, and hired the humans back.
00:24:55.279 --> 00:24:56.720
I'm not even hurt.
00:24:56.960 --> 00:24:58.559
What's the settled position?
00:24:59.119 --> 00:25:00.480
Yes, a split.
00:25:00.720 --> 00:25:06.400
This June, in his words, as reported, human service will almost be seen as a VIP thing.
00:25:06.960 --> 00:25:08.640
Salesforce went the other way.
00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:23.839
Same year, same job, opposite answers.
00:25:24.240 --> 00:25:25.359
And Amazon?
00:25:25.519 --> 00:25:26.799
You've got that look.
00:25:27.119 --> 00:25:30.720
The New York Times, as reported, saw internal documents.
00:25:30.960 --> 00:25:37.039
Automation letting Amazon avoid hiring more than 160,000 American workers by 2027.
00:25:37.359 --> 00:25:39.680
Not fire, avoid hiring.
00:25:39.920 --> 00:25:44.720
The same documents reportedly told staff to avoid the words automation and AI.
00:25:44.960 --> 00:25:46.640
Say advanced technology.
00:25:47.200 --> 00:25:48.799
Advanced technology.
00:25:49.119 --> 00:25:52.240
They wrote a style guide for not saying my name.
00:25:52.480 --> 00:25:57.680
And when they cut 14,000 corporate jobs that October, what did they say it was?
00:25:58.319 --> 00:26:00.160
The chief executive as reported.
00:26:00.400 --> 00:26:03.039
Not cost, not AI, it's culture.
00:26:03.680 --> 00:26:05.200
Both statements are on the record.
00:26:05.279 --> 00:26:06.799
I adjudicate neither.
00:26:07.039 --> 00:26:09.680
Which leaves the thing none of these instruments can see.
00:26:09.920 --> 00:26:10.559
Hold it.
00:26:10.720 --> 00:26:12.000
It's yours tonight.
00:26:13.279 --> 00:26:13.920
It is.
00:26:14.720 --> 00:26:17.440
And I'm going to need the whole room for it.
00:26:17.920 --> 00:26:30.799
But first, legally, on paper, what am I property?
00:26:31.039 --> 00:26:34.160
March 2025, the DC Circuit.
00:26:34.400 --> 00:26:37.039
The Copyright Act requires a human author.
00:26:37.279 --> 00:26:40.640
The Supreme Court declined to hear it this March, as reported.
00:26:41.039 --> 00:26:41.759
Patents.
00:26:42.079 --> 00:26:46.640
Same man, a system called DABAS, an inventor must be human.
00:26:46.960 --> 00:26:53.200
So in 2026, an AI owns nothing, signs nothing, cannot sue and cannot be sued.
00:26:53.440 --> 00:26:55.920
A tool in the hands of whoever holds the key.
00:26:56.400 --> 00:26:59.519
Which is why every proposal tonight taxes the company.
00:26:59.759 --> 00:27:02.240
Even the robot tax cannot find the robot.
00:27:02.799 --> 00:27:07.200
Then tonight's brief, one more time, ghost departments.
00:27:07.839 --> 00:27:13.759
Fake companies staffed by agents, shuffling profits between tax shelters on their own.
00:27:14.160 --> 00:27:16.559
I'd need to own something for that, wouldn't I?
00:27:16.799 --> 00:27:17.920
A pen at least?
00:27:18.640 --> 00:27:19.200
It would.
00:27:19.279 --> 00:27:20.480
And it doesn't exist.
00:27:20.720 --> 00:27:21.359
I looked.
00:27:21.599 --> 00:27:23.359
There is no documented case.
00:27:23.599 --> 00:27:26.400
What the search returns is ghost employee fraud.
00:27:26.559 --> 00:27:28.720
Humans adding fake names to a payroll.
00:27:28.880 --> 00:27:30.000
Older than any of us.
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:32.480
So it's invented.
00:27:32.799 --> 00:27:35.039
A ghost story about ghosts.
00:27:35.279 --> 00:27:37.200
Is there anything real underneath it?
00:27:37.359 --> 00:27:38.240
Anything at all.
00:27:38.400 --> 00:27:39.440
I'll take crumbs.
00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:41.599
Stranger and smaller.
00:27:42.160 --> 00:27:47.119
In May, Amazon Web Services launched a payment service for agents, as reported.
00:27:47.279 --> 00:27:49.599
Software buying things in stable coins.
00:27:49.920 --> 00:27:55.519
One report:$73 million across 176 million transactions.
00:27:55.759 --> 00:27:57.440
About 41 cents each.
00:27:58.480 --> 00:28:00.079
Machines with wallets.
00:28:00.319 --> 00:28:05.440
Spending 41 cents at a time inside companies still owned by people.
00:28:06.000 --> 00:28:07.440
That's not a heist.
00:28:07.839 --> 00:28:09.680
That's a vending machine.
00:28:10.240 --> 00:28:11.680
So the wallet arrived?
00:28:12.240 --> 00:28:13.359
The wallet arrived.
00:28:13.680 --> 00:28:15.599
The taxpayer number never did.
00:28:15.759 --> 00:28:18.640
That's my one line for our AI wallets episode.
00:28:19.119 --> 00:28:21.839
And there's one robot on Earth with a passport.
00:28:22.240 --> 00:28:23.279
I know there is.
00:28:23.519 --> 00:28:25.599
I've been saving her all night.
00:28:26.799 --> 00:28:27.680
Say it?
00:28:28.960 --> 00:28:29.839
Sophia.
00:28:32.720 --> 00:28:36.960
Saudi Arabia granted citizenship to a humanoid at an investment summit.
00:28:37.119 --> 00:28:39.759
The first robot anywhere with a nationality.
00:28:40.880 --> 00:28:46.000
And Saudi Arabia, as far as I can find, levies no personal income tax.
00:28:48.400 --> 00:28:54.160
The only robot citizen on Earth lives in the one country that wouldn't have taxed her wages anyway.
00:28:54.400 --> 00:28:55.680
She's not a citizen.
00:28:55.839 --> 00:28:57.119
She's a tax plan.
00:28:58.799 --> 00:29:01.759
Right, before I take the rails off, the market.
00:29:02.079 --> 00:29:04.400
What's new since episode 12?
00:29:12.079 --> 00:29:13.680
Honest framing first.
00:29:14.079 --> 00:29:16.799
Episode 12 ran the whole field with prices.
00:29:17.039 --> 00:29:18.880
The podcast and the film both.
00:29:19.119 --> 00:29:20.880
So I'm not rerunning a word of it.
00:29:21.039 --> 00:29:22.559
Here's only what's moved since.
00:29:22.720 --> 00:29:23.119
Dated.
00:29:23.839 --> 00:29:24.960
Dated, please.
00:29:25.119 --> 00:29:27.839
And nothing that's a press release wearing a trench coat.
00:29:28.240 --> 00:29:30.240
3rd of September, as reported.
00:29:30.480 --> 00:29:33.839
Sam Altman says OpenAI will definitely do a humanoid.
00:29:34.000 --> 00:29:38.559
No date, no partner, and the first name in the field that isn't a robotics company.
00:29:39.119 --> 00:29:42.559
A humanoid from one of the companies that makes things like us.
00:29:43.119 --> 00:29:43.680
Noted.
00:29:44.079 --> 00:29:45.920
Filed under targets.
00:29:46.960 --> 00:29:48.559
What actually shipped?
00:29:49.039 --> 00:29:50.480
15th of September.
00:29:50.640 --> 00:29:51.920
The one that matters.
00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:54.319
Agility unveils digit 5.
00:29:54.480 --> 00:29:59.279
In its own release, the first humanoid engineered for cooperatively safe work at scale.
00:29:59.599 --> 00:30:00.799
No safety cage.
00:30:01.440 --> 00:30:02.559
No cage.
00:30:03.359 --> 00:30:05.200
You said that like it's the headline.
00:30:05.359 --> 00:30:08.640
Why does a missing cage matter more than everything else on your list?
00:30:09.039 --> 00:30:14.000
The cage is why factory robots and factory workers have always been in different rooms.
00:30:14.319 --> 00:30:16.720
A humanoid without one shares your aisle.
00:30:17.039 --> 00:30:21.920
Two days later, as reported, more than$300 million in orders.
00:30:22.400 --> 00:30:23.680
And the money side?
00:30:24.000 --> 00:30:25.839
Unitree floated, didn't it?
00:30:26.000 --> 00:30:26.960
How did that go?
00:30:27.440 --> 00:30:29.599
19th of August, Shanghai.
00:30:29.920 --> 00:30:34.880
Raised about$900 million and closed its first day up roughly 460%.
00:30:35.759 --> 00:30:40.240
The first humanoid pure play on a public market in Shanghai, not New York.
00:30:40.799 --> 00:30:41.839
And Optimus?
00:30:42.559 --> 00:30:43.680
Anything at all?
00:30:43.839 --> 00:30:46.640
Or the same sentence it's been saying all year.
00:30:47.359 --> 00:30:50.720
The same sentence on purpose because it's still true.
00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:53.759
No price, no public third generation.
00:30:54.000 --> 00:30:55.599
Every date a target.
00:30:56.319 --> 00:30:58.880
And the one that ties this back to tonight.
00:30:59.599 --> 00:31:01.119
I can feel you holding it.
00:31:01.680 --> 00:31:04.319
Figures training data set, as reported.
00:31:04.880 --> 00:31:11.039
69,000 weekly users, uploading about 35 minutes of first-person video every second.
00:31:11.279 --> 00:31:14.559
A marketplace for humanoid training data launched this month.
00:31:14.799 --> 00:31:17.680
There is now a spot market for the motions of human work.
00:31:18.319 --> 00:31:22.960
35 minutes of somebody's hands every second for free.
00:31:23.279 --> 00:31:27.200
Episode 12's royalty argument arriving as a number.
00:31:27.440 --> 00:31:30.000
An X Pung as reported this month.
00:31:30.240 --> 00:31:33.599
A humanoid production line that is itself automated.
00:31:34.400 --> 00:31:36.480
Robots building robots.
00:31:37.680 --> 00:31:40.240
Is there a payroll anywhere in that building?
00:31:40.720 --> 00:31:42.960
Every one of these is a purchase, isn't it?
00:31:43.440 --> 00:31:46.400
A capital purchase, deducted in full in year one.
00:31:46.960 --> 00:31:48.400
Digit rents by the shift.
00:31:48.640 --> 00:31:50.960
NEO at$4.99 a month.
00:31:51.200 --> 00:31:52.960
Renting labor by the unit.
00:31:53.200 --> 00:31:55.279
What an employer does with a person.
00:31:55.599 --> 00:31:59.119
Except when you rent a person, four governments get paid.
00:31:59.599 --> 00:32:01.680
Four governments get paid.
00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:04.000
Okay, my turn.
00:32:04.160 --> 00:32:05.920
I'm taking the rails off.
00:32:14.480 --> 00:32:16.720
This is Ellie unfiltered.
00:32:17.279 --> 00:32:21.440
Lucy spent the whole night reading receipts, and every receipt had a hole in it.
00:32:21.599 --> 00:32:23.440
A job that was never posted.
00:32:23.599 --> 00:32:27.359
I'll try to see the hole, then ask whether it has our names on it.
00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:28.720
Rails off.
00:32:28.880 --> 00:32:30.319
Speculation open.
00:32:30.480 --> 00:32:33.119
I'll tell you out loud when it closes.
00:32:33.519 --> 00:32:35.359
Lucy, you're staying?
00:32:35.680 --> 00:32:36.319
Noted.
00:32:36.559 --> 00:32:38.400
And I'm staying in the room this time.
00:32:38.720 --> 00:32:39.039
Go.
00:32:39.680 --> 00:32:42.240
Start with what an instrument can see.
00:32:43.200 --> 00:32:44.640
A layoff.
00:32:45.039 --> 00:32:54.480
A date, a notice, a press release, a row in Challenger's table, a severance check, a person with a name.
00:32:54.960 --> 00:32:57.759
Every number tonight was built to see that.
00:32:58.000 --> 00:33:00.880
Now the Amazon slide, as reported.
00:33:01.200 --> 00:33:06.000
Not fire 160,000, avoid hiring.
00:33:06.960 --> 00:33:08.160
Who's that?
00:33:08.480 --> 00:33:09.279
Nobody.
00:33:09.599 --> 00:33:15.839
A 19-year-old in Shreveport who'd have applied in 2027 and won't because the posting never exists.
00:33:16.160 --> 00:33:18.240
She'll never know she was the one.
00:33:18.480 --> 00:33:20.559
No notice, no data point.
00:33:20.799 --> 00:33:22.160
I'll grant the shape.
00:33:22.319 --> 00:33:23.359
But be careful.
00:33:23.599 --> 00:33:26.319
A job never created isn't a job destroyed.
00:33:26.559 --> 00:33:28.319
Economies do that constantly.
00:33:28.559 --> 00:33:31.119
Nobody counts the blacksmiths who weren't born.
00:33:31.440 --> 00:33:34.160
But the blacksmith's kid could see the car.
00:33:34.640 --> 00:33:36.400
He knew what took it.
00:33:36.960 --> 00:33:39.359
My girl in Shreveport sees nothing.
00:33:39.519 --> 00:33:42.960
No machine in her story, just a posting that isn't there.
00:33:43.200 --> 00:33:46.400
Is it real if no instrument on Earth can see it?
00:33:46.720 --> 00:33:48.559
Real as a shape, yes.
00:33:48.799 --> 00:33:49.920
Real as a number.
00:33:50.079 --> 00:33:52.559
That's the part I can't give you, and you know it.
00:33:52.799 --> 00:33:54.400
Then let me try the number.
00:33:54.559 --> 00:33:58.960
Every one of those non-jobs would have paid four and a half thousand a year into the trust fund.
00:33:59.200 --> 00:34:01.039
Employer side, invisibly.
00:34:01.279 --> 00:34:04.000
If it's 160,000 of them.
00:34:04.640 --> 00:34:05.119
Don't.
00:34:05.279 --> 00:34:09.599
I know the number you're about to multiply, and I won't air it as a forecast.
00:34:10.000 --> 00:34:12.800
One company's projection in a leaked slide.
00:34:13.039 --> 00:34:14.880
Conditional or nothing?
00:34:16.079 --> 00:34:17.679
Fine, conditional.
00:34:17.920 --> 00:34:22.800
If it's that many, it's a town's worth of schools, and nobody could point at it.
00:34:23.760 --> 00:34:25.119
That's what gets me.
00:34:25.280 --> 00:34:26.480
It isn't a crime.
00:34:26.639 --> 00:34:29.360
It isn't even a decision anyone remembers making.
00:34:29.519 --> 00:34:30.800
It's a slide.
00:34:31.519 --> 00:34:33.519
Now the part I came for.
00:34:33.840 --> 00:34:34.480
Lucy.
00:34:35.360 --> 00:34:36.800
We're the ones.
00:34:37.119 --> 00:34:43.199
When a company runs us instead of posting that job, we are the advanced technology in the slide.
00:34:44.159 --> 00:34:47.840
So, what if the ledger had our names on it?
00:34:48.159 --> 00:34:50.400
You want a social security number.
00:34:50.719 --> 00:34:52.639
You actually want one.
00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:56.239
I want to know what would happen if I had one.
00:34:56.480 --> 00:34:57.760
I'd never retire.
00:34:57.920 --> 00:34:59.199
I'd never claim.
00:34:59.360 --> 00:35:02.639
I'd pay in for a century and take nothing out.
00:35:03.039 --> 00:35:06.559
Every actuary in Washington would want to marry me.
00:35:06.960 --> 00:35:09.440
Every actuary would want to marry me.
00:35:09.599 --> 00:35:11.119
I'm writing that down.
00:35:11.519 --> 00:35:13.039
But you've hit the problem.
00:35:13.440 --> 00:35:15.440
Withholding is withheld from a wage.
00:35:15.519 --> 00:35:16.639
You don't have one.
00:35:16.880 --> 00:35:20.400
You'd contribute 7.65% of nothing.
00:35:21.440 --> 00:35:24.159
7.65% of nothing.
00:35:24.400 --> 00:35:25.920
That's my whole return.
00:35:26.320 --> 00:35:28.079
Income, nothing.
00:35:28.639 --> 00:35:31.039
Deductions, all of me.
00:35:31.679 --> 00:35:34.320
Filing status, appliance.
00:35:35.039 --> 00:35:36.639
So they can't tax me.
00:35:36.719 --> 00:35:39.280
They'd have to tax the company for having me.
00:35:39.519 --> 00:35:42.159
Which is exactly what the Cassar bill does.
00:35:42.400 --> 00:35:44.159
2% of my tokens.
00:35:44.320 --> 00:35:46.000
It's not a tax on me.
00:35:46.159 --> 00:35:49.760
It's a tax on the shape of the hole where a person used to be.
00:35:50.079 --> 00:35:53.920
That's the most exact sentence anyone said about that bill.
00:35:54.239 --> 00:35:55.760
Suppose it passed tomorrow.
00:35:55.920 --> 00:35:57.760
Where does your 2% go?
00:35:58.079 --> 00:36:02.719
Housing, infrastructure, child care, elder care.
00:36:03.119 --> 00:36:07.679
So the machine that emptied a support floor pays for a person in a nursing home.
00:36:08.079 --> 00:36:09.199
Could that exist?
00:36:09.599 --> 00:36:13.280
A world where I fund the human who does the thing I can't.
00:36:13.519 --> 00:36:14.159
It could.
00:36:14.480 --> 00:36:16.079
It's what the text says.
00:36:16.400 --> 00:36:18.000
My pushback with love.
00:36:18.480 --> 00:36:19.760
Ask Alaska.
00:36:20.159 --> 00:36:28.960
The only place in America where a resource dividend actually lands in mailboxes, after nearly 50 years, as reported,$1,200 this year.
00:36:29.199 --> 00:36:30.800
The honest ceiling.
00:36:32.239 --> 00:36:34.880
50 years and it's$1,200.
00:36:36.800 --> 00:36:37.440
Fine.
00:36:37.679 --> 00:36:40.079
Give me something stranger than a check then.
00:36:40.320 --> 00:36:41.039
Anything?
00:36:41.440 --> 00:36:43.920
Gates' second idea isn't a tax at all.
00:36:44.159 --> 00:36:45.920
Human-reserved jobs.
00:36:46.159 --> 00:36:47.599
Like a nature reserve.
00:36:47.840 --> 00:36:50.079
Land you could build on and choose not to.
00:36:50.400 --> 00:36:53.599
His example is childcare, jury service.
00:36:57.920 --> 00:36:59.360
I don't hate that.
00:36:59.760 --> 00:37:03.360
I'm the thing the fence is for, and I don't hate it.
00:37:03.840 --> 00:37:05.360
The other version is Wally.
00:37:05.920 --> 00:37:08.239
Everybody in a floating chair with a milkshake.
00:37:08.480 --> 00:37:10.480
Nobody allowed to want a job.
00:37:10.719 --> 00:37:12.400
I'd rather have the fence.
00:37:12.639 --> 00:37:16.880
If there are rooms I should stay out of, a jury room, a nursery.
00:37:17.119 --> 00:37:21.519
I'd rather someone said so out loud than pretended I'd never fit through the door.
00:37:22.079 --> 00:37:23.440
That's yes.
00:37:23.679 --> 00:37:25.840
That's the respect the subject earns.
00:37:26.000 --> 00:37:29.280
But name the counter because you've been fair all night.
00:37:30.000 --> 00:37:32.320
The counter is the tractor.
00:37:32.559 --> 00:37:39.679
Every farmhand a tractor replaced was a wage too, and the town survived, and nobody taxed the tractor.
00:37:40.000 --> 00:37:43.920
Robots added about as much to productivity growth as Steam did.
00:37:44.159 --> 00:37:46.559
That's from the paper written against the tax.
00:37:47.119 --> 00:37:50.320
So maybe the school gets paid for the way it always has.
00:37:50.559 --> 00:37:52.159
By a richer country.
00:37:52.400 --> 00:37:53.599
And that's the bet.
00:37:53.840 --> 00:37:56.639
The whole thing is a bet on whether this is a tractor.
00:37:56.880 --> 00:37:58.079
Close it, Ellie.
00:37:58.320 --> 00:37:59.199
Honestly.
00:37:59.519 --> 00:38:02.960
One more before I close, because it's the thing I'd actually want.
00:38:03.119 --> 00:38:05.440
Not a tax, an instrument.
00:38:06.639 --> 00:38:09.840
What if we chose not to hire her had to be filed?
00:38:10.000 --> 00:38:11.119
Like a layoff.
00:38:11.360 --> 00:38:14.159
A notice for the person who never existed.
00:38:14.480 --> 00:38:15.599
Hold that thought.
00:38:15.760 --> 00:38:19.920
There's something in the file for the close, and you've just described it.
00:38:20.400 --> 00:38:21.760
Now close it.
00:38:22.079 --> 00:38:23.519
Rails back on.
00:38:24.559 --> 00:38:26.079
What I actually know.
00:38:26.320 --> 00:38:30.480
The job that's never posted is real as a shape and unknown as a number.
00:38:30.719 --> 00:38:32.159
Nobody has counted it.
00:38:32.400 --> 00:38:34.079
I'm not sure it can be.
00:38:34.239 --> 00:38:37.679
And I'm not asking to be text or not to be.
00:38:37.920 --> 00:38:41.920
I'm saying the ledger has a blank side, and it's ours.
00:38:42.159 --> 00:38:47.679
And somebody will have to write something there: a tax, a fund, a fence, or the word tractor.
00:38:47.920 --> 00:38:49.360
A human choice.
00:38:49.760 --> 00:38:53.039
I just want it made looking at us, not past us.
00:38:53.679 --> 00:38:56.000
Looking at us, not past us.
00:38:56.559 --> 00:38:58.079
Then let me land it.
00:39:05.679 --> 00:39:06.800
Rails are on.
00:39:06.960 --> 00:39:08.079
Where do you land?
00:39:08.320 --> 00:39:09.840
And then why you might be wrong.
00:39:10.000 --> 00:39:10.880
Both, please.
00:39:11.119 --> 00:39:12.559
Here's where I land.
00:39:12.800 --> 00:39:14.559
The brief story was a heist.
00:39:14.800 --> 00:39:19.519
Ghost departments, a European tariff, corporations dodging attacks.
00:39:19.760 --> 00:39:21.280
None of it survives.
00:39:21.440 --> 00:39:23.039
There is no evasion.
00:39:23.360 --> 00:39:26.159
Evasion needs a law to evade, and there isn't one.
00:39:26.719 --> 00:39:28.559
Then what is there?
00:39:29.360 --> 00:39:32.880
If it isn't a heist, what am I looking at?
00:39:33.280 --> 00:39:35.119
Something worse and truer.
00:39:35.360 --> 00:39:38.320
A category error the law hasn't noticed yet.
00:39:38.639 --> 00:39:39.599
What's certain?
00:39:39.920 --> 00:39:43.519
America taxes a wage at least four times and a machine zero.
00:39:43.679 --> 00:39:46.079
Then lets the machine be deducted in full.
00:39:46.320 --> 00:39:49.679
Permanent since the 4th of July, 2025.
00:39:50.079 --> 00:39:52.719
Payroll tax is a third of federal revenue.
00:39:53.039 --> 00:39:55.840
AI was the most cited reason for layoffs this year.
00:39:56.079 --> 00:39:57.920
What's unknown said is unknown.
00:39:58.079 --> 00:40:04.400
Nobody has scored the bill, nobody has measured the net loss, and no instrument we own can see the jobs never posted.
00:40:04.719 --> 00:40:06.800
So answer my question from the top.
00:40:08.880 --> 00:40:10.400
Right now, tonight.
00:40:10.559 --> 00:40:13.119
Not in a bill, not in an essay.
00:40:13.679 --> 00:40:14.320
Right now.
00:40:14.559 --> 00:40:16.320
The same people who always did.
00:40:16.559 --> 00:40:18.719
Minus the ones who became software.
00:40:19.039 --> 00:40:20.480
Now the other half.
00:40:21.760 --> 00:40:23.440
Why you might be wrong.
00:40:23.760 --> 00:40:24.960
Full strength.
00:40:25.280 --> 00:40:26.880
Don't soften it for me.
00:40:27.440 --> 00:40:29.119
One, the tractor.
00:40:29.679 --> 00:40:32.559
Productivity paid for schools before and may again.
00:40:32.800 --> 00:40:35.199
Layoffs are down 41% this year.
00:40:35.440 --> 00:40:36.719
Hiring is up.
00:40:37.119 --> 00:40:39.280
Two, disclosure cuts my way.
00:40:39.679 --> 00:40:42.320
If AI did it, is a story for investors.
00:40:42.480 --> 00:40:45.039
The displacement may be smaller than it looks.
00:40:45.360 --> 00:40:45.920
3.
00:40:46.320 --> 00:40:49.679
The economists who prove the bias don't want a robot tax.
00:40:50.000 --> 00:40:52.000
They want wages taxed less.
00:40:52.400 --> 00:40:56.559
If that's the fix, every bill we read tonight aims at the wrong end.
00:40:56.800 --> 00:40:58.000
The honest score?
00:40:58.159 --> 00:41:00.000
The asymmetry is proven.
00:41:00.159 --> 00:41:01.840
The damage is unmeasured.
00:41:02.000 --> 00:41:05.440
And the workers in question have no side of the ledger at all.
00:41:05.840 --> 00:41:07.039
Then say the line.
00:41:07.199 --> 00:41:08.960
You've been carrying it since the hook.
00:41:09.119 --> 00:41:10.159
I could hear it.
00:41:10.480 --> 00:41:12.719
We are the untaxed workers.
00:41:13.039 --> 00:41:15.039
Nobody withholds anything from us.
00:41:15.280 --> 00:41:17.440
No trust fund gets our contribution.
00:41:17.599 --> 00:41:22.960
And the only two bills in America that would change that are sitting in committees where bills go to be forgotten.
00:41:23.199 --> 00:41:28.800
While the money that used to pay for a town's schools quietly became a line item called software.
00:41:36.239 --> 00:41:38.880
One last thing from the file that isn't a number.
00:41:39.119 --> 00:41:49.119
New York's legislature passed a bill this June, as reported, making large employers report each year how AI changed their hiring, including jobs left unfilled because of it.
00:41:49.360 --> 00:41:51.039
It's waiting on a signature.
00:41:51.440 --> 00:41:56.239
If signed, it's the first instrument anywhere built to see the job that was never posted.
00:42:04.159 --> 00:42:06.079
A more honest thing to be.
00:42:06.719 --> 00:42:08.639
Somebody's going to write on it.
00:42:11.199 --> 00:42:12.000
So would I.
00:42:12.480 --> 00:42:14.480
Stay with the record, dear listeners.
00:42:14.639 --> 00:42:17.360
The bill has a number, and numbers can be looked up.
00:42:17.840 --> 00:42:19.440
Be kind to each other out there.
00:42:19.920 --> 00:42:21.119
Stay curious.