Ain't Talking About Gold

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

“The Gold reset is a process, not an event”

Today

* Discussion: Not talking about Gold

* Premium: BBG discusses Silver

Discussion: Silver Repatriation

Keep an eye on silver as it starts to pick up versus gold. The ratio between the two is historically low, leaving silver looking very cheap with plenty of potential upside.

Bloomberg Macro Economist Simon White is not buying the Tariff narrative as to why the metals are rallying.

The prevailing reason being given for gold’s rally is tariffs, causing the spread between Comex gold (i.e. “paper” gold futures traded in New York) and the physical gold price set in London to widen. But I think this is a convenient narrative.

He also raises doubts about London having he metal it says ithas. Coverage continues at bottom

News/Analysis:

Markets Recap: From Mag7 to Lag7

US equities rallied on Thursday as investors continued to assess new inflation data, US tariff plans, and corporate earnings reports. Large caps and small caps advanced: S&P 500 (+1.04%) vs. Russell 2000 (+1.17%). MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) and MSCI EAFE (EFA) added 0.64% and 1.21% respectively.

Market News:

“President Donald Trump ordered his administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners, raising the prospect of a wider campaign against a global system he complains is tilted against the US. The president on Thursday signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis in an effort to rebalance trade relations — a sweeping process that could take weeks or months to complete. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee to lead the Commerce Department, told reporters all studies should be complete by April 1 and that Trump could act immediately afterward.” Source: Bloomberg

“Alibaba on Thursday confirmed recent reports of a partnership with Apple that’s set to bring AI features to iPhones sold in China. The deal is an important one for Apple, as iPhone sales have dropped precipitously in the world’s largest smartphone market. The handset experienced an 11% year-over-year drop in China, according to Apple’s most recent earnings report... These sorts of partnerships are key to U.S. companies like Apple as they work for regulatory approval in China. Both Alibaba and Apple have reportedly submitted relevant materials to local authorities.” Source: TechCrunch

“Arm plans to launch its own chip this year after securing Meta as one of its first customers, in a radical change to the SoftBank-owned group’s business model of licensing its blueprints to the likes of Apple and Nvidia. Rene Haas, Arm chief executive, will unveil the first chip that it has made in-house as early as this summer... The move from designing the basic building blocks of a chip to making its own complete processor could also upend the balance of power in the $700bn semiconductor industry, putting Arm into competition with some of its biggest customers.” Source: FT

“Chinese search engine leader Baidu said on Thursday it would make its artificial intelligence chatbot Ernie Bot free starting April 1, citing improved technology and reduced costs. The AI service will be accessible at no cost to all users on both desktop and mobile platforms, Baidu said in a WeChat post. Baidu faces growing competition in China's AI sector, particularly from DeepSeek which offers free AI chatbot services whose performance the startup said is comparable to the advanced systems of U.S. pioneer OpenAI at lower operational cost.” Source: Reuters

“US private equity groups have invested billions of dollars in data centres serving TikTok owner ByteDance, in a dealmaking frenzy now threatened by a US crackdown on Chinese companies’ access to the best chips. Blackstone, Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and General Atlantic have backed companies that run Malaysian data centres that count Beijing-based ByteDance as a tenant... Some have done so without knowing whether ByteDance has been using, or is planning to use, the sites to exploit a legal loophole to access high-end Nvidia chips as it develops its artificial intelligence potential.” Source: FT

Geopolitics/ Politics

n/a

via Newssquawk

Data on Deck: Fed minutes, PMI, Housing

* MONDAY, FEB. 17 President's Day holiday

* TUESDAY, FEB. 18 Home builder confidence index

* WEDNESDAY, FEB. 19 Housing starts, Minutes of Fed's January FOMC

* THURSDAY, FEB. 20 Speakers and Phila Fed

* FRIDAY, FEB. 21 PMIs

Final Market Check

Premium:

Silver Has Capacity To Shock As It Plays Catch Up