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What happens if Republicans get crushed in November? Political scientist Seth Masket joins me to game out where the GOP goes after a midterm wipeout, and where it could take the rest of us.The polls suggest a blue wave is building, and Republicans have started putting a little distance between themselves and an unpopular president. But Seth's research shows that Democrats over-correct after they lose, while Republicans under-correct, and lately some deny the loss happened at all. So does a big defeat finally break Trump's hold on the party, or do Republicans end up needing him even more?In this episode:The one time Trump's favorability with Republicans actually dropped. It wasn't January 6th or his conviction.Why the window for Republicans to criticize Trump closes soon after November 3rdA Trump endorsement was worth about 16 points in 2022 GOP primariesIs Trump a "Giffen good" for Republican politicians? Seth grades my theory live.Three reasons Republicans stay loyal: primaries, political violence, and policyThe Nikki Haley third of the party that is waiting for Trump to leave the stageCould Rubio or Vance hold together both MAGA voters and traditional Republicans?What Democrats are learning, or not learning, from 2024Why corruption could be Democrats' strongest issue once they have subpoena powerOur midterm predictions: CO-8 and MO-2Seth Masket is a political scientist at the University of Denver and the author of The Elephants in the Room and Learning from Loss.📬 Subscribe to Seth's Substack: smotus.substack.com🎥 Get livestreams, the weekly Political Rehab show, and Midterm HQ at Worth Knowing: worthknowing.substack.comCHAPTERS00:00 What if Republicans get crushed in November?01:40 How each party handles losing04:00 Seth's 2020 prediction, revisited05:10 The only time Trump lost GOP support08:10 Why Republicans' break with Trump won't last10:15 Money, votes, press: how Trump controls the party12:55 "Not while Trump is alive": the 16-point endorsement14:15 "If Trump won your district by 10, you're probably losing"15:10 Is Trump a Giffen good?18:00 Three reasons Republicans stay loyal to Trump20:15 The Haley voters waiting for Trump to exit21:50 Can Rubio or Vance thread the needle?25:00 What lessons are Democrats learning?30:30 Change elections and the demand for fighters33:00 Why voters keep throwing out the party in power34:50 Corruption as the post-midterm message38:55 Midterm predictions: CO-8 and MO-2#Midterms2026 #Trump #RepublicanParty
