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Bread remains a cornerstone of the American food system, but declining consumption and changing consumer attitudes could have consequences all the way back to the wheat farm.
Josh Sosland, president of Sosland Publishing Company and editor of Milling & Baking News, joins Aaron Harries and Justin Gilpin to examine what more than a century of milling and baking history says about today’s wheat-demand challenge. They discuss declining bread consumption, consumer misinformation, GLP-1 medications, the MAHA movement, the unsuccessful Bread Basket Checkoff effort and why Sosland believes science alone won't be enough to change consumer behavior. The conversation also explores whether Kansas wheat promotion should put greater emphasis on domestic demand alongside traditional export-market development.
Key takeaways:
- Declining bread consumption isn't new, but recent trends have made the challenge more concerning.
- Research can counter misinformation about grain foods, but changing consumer behavior also requires emotional connection.
- Meaningful consumer promotion requires resources on a much larger scale than many current efforts.
- Domestic wheat demand has traditionally been viewed as static, while grower promotion concentrated heavily on export growth.
- Changing global competition and more specialized domestic markets could create new opportunities for Kansas wheat producers.
Detailed Timestamped Rundown
00:00 — Why bread consumption matters
Josh Sosland opens with the central problem: concerns about Americans not eating enough bread aren't new, but consumption numbers over the past four or five years have become particularly concerning. History also suggests ordinary industry initiatives may not be enough to reverse the trend.
00:40 — Introducing Josh Sosland
Aaron introduces Sosland as president of Sosland Publishing Company and editor of Milling & Baking News.
01:08 — A century of milling and baking journalism
Sosland recounts how his grandfather and two brothers founded Southwestern Miller. The publication emerged as commercial baking expanded and Southwestern millers sought recognition for the bread-making quality of Kansas and Southern Plains wheat.
03:43 — Hard red winter wheat's rise
The discussion connects the publication's origins with the growth of hard red winter wheat production and its transition from primarily household flour toward commercial bread flour.
04:15 — The Great Grain Robbery
Justin introduces one of the remarkable stories in Sosland history: the company's reporting on massive Soviet grain purchases in the early 1970s.
05:06 — Secret Soviet purchases and inflation
Sosland explains how Soviet buyers quietly purchased enormous amounts of U.S. wheat and corn without initially revealing the full scale of their activity. The resulting market disruption became intertwined with the inflationary pressures of the era.
07:09 — “John Smith” and an industry scoop
Sosland tells the story of a mysterious caller identifying himself as John Smith and providing Morton Sosland with Soviet grain-purchase figures that eventually proved accurate.
08:19 — Sosland Publishing today
The conversation covers the company's portfolio, including World Grain, Bake, Baking & Snack, Pet Food Processing, Milling & Baking News and Food Business News.
09:06 — Print versus digital publishing
Sosland explains why print remains important to part of the industry's readership while digital consumption continues growing.
09:48 — Bread consumption's century-old problem
Drawing from decades of archival work, Sosland says concerns about inadequate bread consumption appear repeatedly throughout industry history.
10:59 — Why today's numbers are different
Recent consumption trends are especially concerning. Sosland's lesson from history is that “business as usual” is unlikely to create the scale of change needed.
11:33 — What happened to the Bread Basket Checkoff?
The discussion examines the proposed wheat-flour-foods checkoff. Sosland describes concerns over government involvement, assessment structures and disagreement within the baking sector.
14:03 — What wheat lost without the checkoff
Justin discusses the potential value of having substantial, coordinated resources for consumer communication—particularly as grain foods face new headwinds.
15:32 — Different boats, same rough water
Sosland examines the different approaches taken by grower and baking organizations and argues that organizational separation hasn't eliminated the fundamental challenges facing grain foods.
16:16 — GLP-1 medications enter the equation
Sosland says he initially thought the effects of GLP-1 medications on food consumption might be overstated. He now believes their influence can't be ignored, although he doesn't rank them as the industry's biggest challenge.
17:44 — Winning minds versus winning hearts
This is the episode's central strategic discussion. Sosland credits the Grain Foods Foundation and Grain Foods Research Institute with doing important work to counter myths, but says the industry has a much bigger gap in creating emotional connections with consumers.
18:37 — Why facts aren't enough
Sosland uses an insight from the investment world to illustrate how people make decisions emotionally as well as logically. Correcting misinformation may therefore be necessary without being sufficient.
21:17 — The scale of investment required
A $100,000 initiative may be meaningful for an association, Sosland says, but the larger challenge requires millions of dollars when companies are losing billions in market share.
22:33 — What successful promotion looks like
The conversation turns to commodity promotion and checkoff examples, including industries where coordinated resources and messaging have helped increase consumption.
23:34 — Grapefruit as a warning
Sosland offers grapefruit as a cautionary example of a food once considered a household staple whose consumption dramatically declined. His point: staples can't assume consumers will always be there.
24:05 — MAHA and ultra-processed foods
The hosts address the MAHA movement and criticism of ultra-processed foods. Sosland discusses the power of emotionally compelling food messages and their potential to alter consumer behavior.
25:44 — Consumers still love wheat foods
Despite negative perceptions surrounding bread, Sosland points to pizza, Uncrustables and quality baguettes as examples of wheat-based products that continue to resonate strongly with consumers.
26:40 — Should growers rethink promotion spending?
Sosland turns the interview around and asks whether grower organizations have the right balance between international promotion and domestic-market investment.
26:59 — Why wheat invested overseas
Justin explains that U.S. domestic wheat use has traditionally been considered “static demand.” Export promotion therefore offered an apparent opportunity to add incremental demand and value at the farm gate.
28:00 — New opportunities in domestic wheat
Changing export competition and increasingly specialized domestic relationships may give farmers opportunities to create value through particular varieties, management practices and end-use characteristics.
30:36 — The wheat marketplace has changed
Sosland argues that strategies developed decades ago reflected a very different competitive environment. U.S. wheat now faces additional global competitors while competing domestically with other commodities and foods.
31:28 — Why Kansas invested in exports
Justin traces the Kansas Wheat Commission's history to 1957 and explains how postwar reconstruction and government-dominated international grain buying shaped producer investment in overseas market development.
32:43 — Closing thoughts
The episode concludes with the recognition that wheat is in a period of transition and that producer leaders are actively discussing how promotion and market development should evolve.
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