معلومات عن هذه الحلقة
Bitcoin is at $80,900 and the 50-week moving average, the line that has confirmed every bull market, sits at $78.7K, so this week's close on Sunday decides it rather than today's candle. $80K right now looks eerily like $25K in February 2023, the same rejection off the 50-week with the 200-day sitting 12% lower at $70K the way it sat at $20K back then. That fractal carries the warning too, because the 2023 breakout week came with one last liquidation down to the 200-day before the real move, which is why I'm 85% spot Bitcoin with no leverage until the weekly closes. On policy, the Clarity Act is not dead at 17% odds through the Senate, up from 7% two days ago, the SEC innovation exemption went live Thursday and lets onchain venues trade tokenized US stocks with dividend and voting rights attached, and the CFTC sent its own crypto rulebook to the White House this morning.
Chapters:
(00:00) Bitcoin at $80,900 and today's agenda
(2:49) Chat: is the pullback off the table?
(7:20) The February 2023 fractal
(8:22) Why the weekly close is the confirmation, 50-week at $78.7K
(10:24) Same rejection off the 50-week, then and now
(12:28) The 200-day at $70K is 2023's $20K
(14:45) If the weekly confirms, the room above
(16:56) The fakeout scenario and where it lands
(21:01) Why spot Bitcoin wins either way
(23:09) No leverage and no low caps, not this week
(26:13) Q&A opens
(29:17) Why Zcash and Uniswap pump and others don't
(31:24) NEAR, and rethinking a position
(34:33) Deploying the rest of the cash
(37:36) Golden cross 2023 against now
(42:45) The Clarity Act is not dead, 17% odds
(46:50) SEC innovation exemption goes live
(50:02) Tokenized stocks get dividends and voting rights
(51:02) CFTC sends its crypto rulebook to the White House
(57:32) Market structure without the Clarity Act
(1:00:34) XRP and the DCA from $1.28
(1:03:47) Working down the blue chip list
(1:04:53) Equities, oil and the 10-year yield
(1:07:03) Bank of Japan hikes to 1.25%
(1:09:09) Bitcoin has run in hiking cycles too
(1:15:33) Robinhood's product event and the first narrative
(1:23:56) Why everything is a probability
(1:29:13) ARK and the token worth watching
(1:31:20) Where the AI plays are this cycle
(1:35:30) Closing: what Monday decides
